Speaker 1: Let's start with the price section, and then we can
Speaker 1: turn to the estimates. The price section negative it continues
Speaker 1: on the S and P five hundred. We're down across
Speaker 1: the board, down by more than one four percentage point
Speaker 1: on the SMP, on the NASDAG, down by one point six,
Speaker 1: on a RUSS or of small caves, down by one
Speaker 1: point nine. At the bond market, the rally continues for
Speaker 1: a seventh consecutive session. Yields lower over that period by
Speaker 1: more than thirty basis points on a ten year maturity,
Speaker 1: the two year drop fifty in the month of July alone.
Speaker 1: That move continues, yields lower at the front end by
Speaker 1: three basis points four to twelve on ten to break
Speaker 1: of four percent in the last twenty four hours your
Speaker 1: ten year three ninety four. I promise you the estimates
Speaker 1: so here they are gone into payrolls. Just around a corner.
Speaker 1: One seventy five is the median estimate in our survey
Speaker 1: on unemployment four point one percent. The question, particularly after
Speaker 1: the weakness of yesterday m manufacturing jobless claims, is this
Speaker 1: a head fake or the real deal? With us around
Speaker 1: a table, the real deal, Mohammed el errand a Queen's College,
Speaker 1: Cambridge with us for the next two hours alongside Am Marie,
Speaker 1: I'm Jonathan Farroh Mhammad. We've got to go to you
Speaker 1: headfake or the real deal?
Speaker 2: What is this? I think the US economy is slowing
Speaker 2: faster and in a broader sense than most people anticipated,
Speaker 2: including the FED. And I think that the market is
Speaker 2: catching up to that possibility, which has become a probability.
Speaker 1: So I've said repeatedly, I've asked repeatedly, welcome cooling or
Speaker 1: unwelcome desiation? Is this starting to sound more like the
Speaker 1: latter than the former?
Speaker 2: It is the latter. There's no need for us to
Speaker 2: have an excessive slowing in the economy. This remains quite
Speaker 2: a robust economy. And if we do get it, it
Speaker 2: is because the FED was late in recognizing that the
Speaker 2: economy is slowing. Now there's a debate if the FED
Speaker 2: needs to cut deeper when they go in September. Do
Speaker 2: you think that they should in September go to fifty
Speaker 2: basis points instead of twenty five? I think they go
Speaker 2: to I mean, I'm laughing because so many people now
Speaker 2: are suddenly say fifty basis points to start with the
Speaker 2: fifty basis points cut means we've made a policy mistake.
Speaker 2: And this is a FED that surprised a lot of
Speaker 2: people by having to hike four times in a row
Speaker 2: by seventy five basis points, so they were late starting,
Speaker 2: and if they cut by fifty, there will signal that
Speaker 2: they're late starting to cut. I think it will be
Speaker 2: a mistake to cut by fifty, But the fact that
Speaker 2: some people are talking about it, I think is where
Speaker 2: the information of content is.
Speaker 1: Right now, We've got lots of time with you this morning.
Speaker 1: You'll be with us through the seven o'clock car into
Speaker 1: the eight o'clock will go through the jobs numbers together.
Speaker 1: I just want to sit on what I think has
Speaker 1: been the biggest piece of your call, which is listen
Speaker 1: to Corporate America. It worked the first time, it seems
Speaker 1: to be working the second time. What did you make
Speaker 1: of the tone of that news conference with Chairman Powell
Speaker 1: earlier this week where he appeared to dismiss any evidence,
Speaker 1: any signs of weakness.
Speaker 2: So I think he was trying to strike that delicate
Speaker 2: balance first explaining why it is that in cut, but
Speaker 2: signaling that they're likely to cut, and on the whole
Speaker 2: Actually he struck it quite well. He did come across
Speaker 2: more dubbish than the statement, and you saw the market
Speaker 2: react in that way yet again, and that is his
Speaker 2: bit of coming across more dubbish. But I understand. You know,
Speaker 2: it's not like the Bank of England. The Bank of
Speaker 2: Englian is very clear. Five people voted four, four people
Speaker 2: voted against.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's.
Speaker 2: Very He responded by saying, oh, no, it's really good
Speaker 2: that everybody votes the same way. Actually, it's not good
Speaker 2: that everybody votes the same way because you don't get
Speaker 2: a sense of how difficult this judgment call is.
Speaker 1: I wonder if we get a sense of that in
Speaker 1: these speeches over the next few weeks from FED officials.