1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 3: Throwing in Joe set I'm saying it's a catch touch down. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 4: go to Wind. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabine. 8 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 4: You want to pack. 9 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: And we are underway. 10 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,599 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by 11 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 3: our friends at bet MGM Brendan glas Sheen in the 12 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 3: host chair. We are just days away from kicking off 13 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 3: the twenty twenty. 14 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: Four NFL season. 15 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 3: If you're looking to participate in any NFL pools this season, 16 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 3: this episode is for you because this is our annual 17 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 3: NFL pool strategy episode with Action Network expert Travis Reed 18 00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 3: and Billy. 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: Ward joins us. You might have hurt him. You might 20 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: hear him present tense. 21 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 3: In the summertime with our UFC betting previews. He is 22 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 3: part of our predictive analytics team. And oh yeah, Billy 23 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 3: Dabble's in the the nerfe's and the urfees and here 24 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 3: he is. 25 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: Talking NFL pool. 26 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 3: So we're discussing strategies around the two most popular. 27 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:18,919 Speaker 1: Types of NFL pools. 28 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 3: Those would be survivor pools and pick them pools very 29 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 3: excited to dive in. So just to set the scene here, 30 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 3: I'll go to you first, Travis. Give the people your 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: background as it pertains to participation in pools. 32 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I first started in a survivor pool in college. 33 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 4: I think a lot of people kind of do that 34 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 4: with their buddies. That's an easy one where you only 35 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: have to pick one game a week. You don't have 36 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,479 Speaker 4: to pay a lot of attention, and that's that's really 37 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 4: the appeal to the masses right there. You don't have 38 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 4: to go through the whole board, just pick one team, 39 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 4: you're done. So just really got interested there kind of 40 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 4: notice patterns most people just picking the same teams over 41 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 4: and over again, and that kind of flipped the light 42 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 4: bulbonds like, oh maybe there's something to this. And have 43 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 4: been playing them for you know, twenty years ever since. 44 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 4: So I just really love the contest and all the 45 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 4: different strategies that you can implement and can't wait to 46 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 4: talk about some of those today. 47 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: Billy, how about yourself? 48 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, I definitely dabbled in them with a lot of 49 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 5: you know, a lot of fantasy sports websites. In their 50 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 5: app they'll advertise the Survivor pool off to the side, 51 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 5: the free entries. So you used to do one of 52 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 5: those every year, not too seriously, and then in twenty 53 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 5: twenty the COVID season, I actually ended up winning one. 54 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 5: So it's been a little bit more serious for me 55 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 5: since then. Still chasing that dream of lasting the whole season. 56 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 5: Obviously harder now with eighteen week schedule. That was one 57 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 5: of the last seventeen week seasons, but yeah, that's been 58 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 5: my real big interest in the last four or five years. 59 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: Very nice. 60 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 3: Okay, there you go, So there's the background you need 61 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 3: on Travis Billy. Again, we're discussing two of the most 62 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 3: popular and we're going to hit on Survivor as well 63 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: as pick Up. 64 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: So let's start Survivor. 65 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 3: How long Travis is an average entry expected to last? 66 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 4: Ira Pols So I was looking at some of the data. 67 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 4: On average, less than fifty percent make it to week four. 68 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 4: So this idea that you're just going to that you 69 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 4: even need to play it safe early to get later 70 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 4: into the season is kind of a fallacy. Most of 71 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 4: the teams are going to get knocked out early anyway, 72 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 4: so it's more about at least personally, I'd rather have 73 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 4: some of that future value, you know, save some of 74 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 4: those good teams for later if you do make it 75 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 4: past those first few weeks, because that's the weeks we 76 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 4: know the least about any of these teams. We think 77 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 4: we know which teams are good, but when well, when 78 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 4: you look back at week one lines by like week ten, 79 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 4: we're like, what the hell were we thinking? So these 80 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 4: are the weeks where we know the least. So he 81 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 4: can get through that and have some good teams left standing, 82 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 4: that's going to really increase your odds of winning down 83 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 4: the road. 84 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 2: The teams we think should be big favorites in week 85 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: one or week two often or not. 86 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 5: And then, just to add on to his answer a 87 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 5: little bit, most of the time we see less than 88 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,119 Speaker 5: half the field and make it through to week four. 89 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 5: But that really heavily depends year to year because there's 90 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 5: always a couple teams in those few weeks that fifty 91 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 5: to sixty percent of the field is on in one 92 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 5: of the early weeks. Obviously, when they lose, that takes 93 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 5: out a big chunk. So there's a lot of variants 94 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 5: year to year just based on how well heavy favorites perform, 95 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 5: but most years, at least one big favorite drops their 96 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 5: game in the early weeks, and that's that's why we 97 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 5: see that less than fifty percent advance. 98 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 3: Right, Travis says, it pertains to finding the appropriate components 99 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 3: when you're putting together a strategy, especially early in the year. 100 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 3: What are some of the important components to consider when 101 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 3: you are making your decisions in Survivor. 102 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, so there's really three key ones. Obviously, this week's 103 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 4: win probability, whether that's just looking at the lines, whether 104 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 4: you want to use, you know, part of our team, 105 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 4: and look at what our projections say. The next one 106 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 4: is future value, which is more art than science because 107 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 4: obviously we don't know about the chaos of injuries and 108 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 4: things like that. A lot of teams you may think 109 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 4: have future value, then their quarterback goes down and now 110 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 4: they have none, so that that always gets a little 111 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 4: bit tricky. But the third one is looking at how 112 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 4: often that team is being picked, and a lot of 113 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 4: these sites will show you that data, so you can 114 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 4: just google, Okay, what are the Survivor picks this week 115 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 4: and look at those popular ones. Billy mentioned it, you'll 116 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 4: see it. You know, a ten point favorite has fifty 117 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 4: percent of the picks on it. Not every week, but 118 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 4: one of these weeks, that team's going to go down 119 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 4: and that huge chunk of the pool is out. You 120 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,919 Speaker 4: don't want to be fallen by the wayside with the masses. 121 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,679 Speaker 4: You want to try to steer clear of those types 122 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 4: of teams. So putting all three of those data points 123 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: together to try to make the best decision is usually 124 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 4: where I start well. 125 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 3: Week one, there's only one game that has a touchdown 126 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 3: or great or spread, and that would be New England 127 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 3: at Cincinnati and the Bengals. Never mind Joe Burrow coming 128 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 3: back from an injury, but the Bengals with Joe Burrow, 129 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 3: even when he's been healthy, they've started slow. I believe 130 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: they're one in three straight up in Burrows four years 131 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 3: in Week one. They've kind of had wonky starts to 132 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: their season since Borrow has been drafted in their quarterback Billy, 133 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 3: how about yourself when it comes to things you're considering 134 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 3: components when you're trying to put together a strategy for survivor. 135 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: Yeah. 136 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 5: The other big one that Travis didn't get to is 137 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 5: just the size of the pool, and by that I 138 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 5: mean both how many we started with and how many 139 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 5: are still remaining. If it's you and one other guy 140 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 5: in week twelve, it's probably okay to just take the 141 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 5: heaviest favorite on the slate if you still have them available. 142 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 5: When you're in a massive one offered by a huge 143 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 5: website with five thousand people, you should almost never take 144 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 5: that fifty percent utilized team. 145 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: So keeping that in. 146 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 5: Mind, just the size of the pool, whether you expect 147 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,919 Speaker 5: anyone else in the pool to make it the whole week, 148 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 5: and then if you can see this, sometimes you can't, 149 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 5: depending on where you're playing, what teams your opponents have selected. 150 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 5: Once you get down to you know, single digits or 151 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 5: a dozen or so people in your pool, you can 152 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 5: kind of guarantee yourself a little bit of an edge 153 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 5: just by rostering teams that they rostering or selecting teams 154 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 5: that they've already used. So what your opponents are doing 155 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 5: is a big factor in there, especially once they gets smaller. 156 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 5: And then at the start of the season, if you're 157 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 5: in a pool of a thousand plus people, someone's probably 158 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 5: gonna make it all eighteen weeks. That's usually about the 159 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 5: rate is one out of every one thousand. If you're 160 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 5: in a smaller pool. You don't need to focus on 161 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 5: making it every week. You just need to beat the 162 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 5: people in your pool so that can make it where 163 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 5: it's a little bit more valuable. To be contrary, and 164 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 5: not worry about that future value so much. Just try 165 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 5: to pick teams that the rest of the field isn't done. 166 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, in a week to week mindset, Billy, I would 167 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 3: imagine there are some parallels to like Daily Fantasy, right 168 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 3: when it comes to like ownership percentages and whatnot. You 169 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 3: want to be a little bit different. 170 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think of it the exact same way. And 171 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 5: we'll even talk about this with the pick and pools 172 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 5: in a little bit. But if everyone in our pool 173 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 5: plays the same guy in DFS or picks the same 174 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 5: team and Survivor, even if they win or you advance, 175 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 5: you've gained nothing because the goal isn't to survive all 176 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 5: eighteen weeks. Necessarily, it is to survive the longest out 177 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 5: of everyone that you're playing against. So beating the field 178 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 5: and having the best like possible outcome or not always 179 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 5: the same answer, which you need to keep in mind, Travis. 180 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 3: One thing that you've always preached in Survivor is that 181 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 3: you have to gain equity each week if you're. 182 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: Serious, if you want to take home the pot. 183 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 3: And as you both mapped out, there are varying kinds 184 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 3: of pools survivor polls that you'll. 185 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: Get yourself involved in. 186 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 3: So explain what you mean by that when when you 187 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 3: have to gain equity each week. 188 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,439 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's similar to the point Billy just made you. 189 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 4: You're really looking to gain leverage on your opponents. So 190 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 4: if you start off in one hundred man contest, you 191 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 4: basically start out with one percent equity. Your goal would 192 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 4: be to eventually get to one hundred percent equity. So 193 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 4: the best way to do that is to maximize your 194 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 4: entries and minimize all of your opponent's entries. So that's 195 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 4: going to really kind of push you away from those 196 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 4: teams that are, you know, thirty forty percent taken and 197 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,199 Speaker 4: really try to just gain that edge each and every week. 198 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 4: And one of the things Billy mentioned was it also 199 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 4: gets you on to different teams almost without even trying, 200 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 4: because you avoided that chalk early. Now you have those 201 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,719 Speaker 4: teams later. It basically kind of snowballs where you get 202 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 4: to keep avoiding chalk because those teams don't have them. 203 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 4: So you continuously have options available to you that the 204 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 4: rest of the field does not. 205 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 3: Billy when you get involved in a survivor pool, what 206 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 3: are some of the rules you're looking at, Like, depending 207 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 3: of course on the pool, but what rules kind of 208 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 3: stick out to you when you're trying to get a 209 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 3: sense of finding an edge. 210 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, the biggest one that I see that actually changes 211 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 5: from pool to pool is whether a tie counts as 212 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 5: an advancement or not. 213 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. 214 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 5: I was looking back at some past year's data. I 215 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 5: forget what team it was. I want to say it 216 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 5: was like the Colts, who are massive favorites or maybe 217 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 5: they're massive underdogs, and they tied in week one, and 218 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,559 Speaker 5: if you had a pool where tie is advanced, your 219 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 5: pool was still like ninety percent alive. If you had 220 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 5: a pool where ties didn't count, it took a big 221 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 5: chunk out because they were the most popular team. So 222 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 5: that's one you definitely want to be aware of. Most 223 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 5: stuff is pretty standard across weeks, unless you're playing in 224 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 5: a weird one where you get one chance to come 225 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 5: back in or some make you pick two teams late 226 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 5: in the season. If there's still a bunch of people, 227 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,719 Speaker 5: those are always good to be aware of. For the 228 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 5: most part, I don't see too many like providers who 229 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 5: use those rules, So the tie is the big one. 230 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 5: I think that might actually change depending on where you're playing, Travis. 231 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 3: Anything to add as far as rules that you keep 232 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 3: a close eye on when you're getting yourself involved, Yeah. 233 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 4: More so looking at the payout structure. Some of them 234 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 4: are winner take all, so that one you obviously want 235 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 4: you have to make it the furthest you know, so 236 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 4: that that can change, especially getting into those later weeks 237 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 4: if it pays out top ten, top fifty or whatever, 238 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 4: that can change. Also, how many entries can you do? 239 00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 4: You know, if you're spending one hundred if you're listening 240 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 4: to this one, spend one hundred bucks. I'd rather get 241 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 4: into a ten dollar with ten entries than one one 242 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 4: hundred dollars entry. So that's just you know, looking at 243 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 4: I really want to maximize the amount of entries I 244 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 4: can put into any one pool, whether that is a 245 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 4: single entry or you know you can put in twenty. 246 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 4: I think that's one of the rules that you can 247 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 4: take advantage of because, like you, like we were talking 248 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 4: about earlier, you could really kind of spread around your 249 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 4: teams and if one of those, you know, thirty percent favorites, 250 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 4: goes down early, you have a lot of shots on 251 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 4: goal later throughout the season. 252 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 3: Okay, so you just hit on what we were going 253 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 3: to hit next, which is speaking to the rules aspect 254 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 3: when you consider number of entries, and you said, all right, 255 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 3: I'd rather have ten ten dollars entries, and then of 256 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 3: course relies on what your structure is and what is 257 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 3: allowed and what isn't Billy anything to add there as 258 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 3: far as the uh, the number of entries that are 259 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:51,719 Speaker 3: optimal for survivor. 260 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not sure there's necessarily like an optimal answer here, 261 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 5: because obviously you need if you do ten entries instead 262 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 5: of one, you need to win it ten times more 263 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 5: often to pay that off, like over a. 264 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 2: Long period of time. 265 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 5: I like having like two or three, just so I 266 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 5: can have one where it's like, hey, I just want 267 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 5: to keep playing. It's supposed to be fun, right, supposed 268 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,719 Speaker 5: to keep us engaged. We know that fifty percent or 269 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 5: so if lineups are done in week three, that's not 270 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 5: a ton of fun. So I'll have one where I 271 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,199 Speaker 5: try to play it a little bit safer, just to 272 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 5: give me something to root for. If you get to 273 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 5: week you know, ten or whatever, and you're one of 274 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,559 Speaker 5: the last few great you played out, and then another 275 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 5: one where I'm very intentionally trying to be contrarian, hoping 276 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 5: for those big favorites to fail, just because you might 277 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 5: in weeks three or four be down to the last 278 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 5: handful of percentage of people. So I don't think there's 279 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 5: a right answer there. It also depends on how much 280 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 5: time and energy you wanted to vote to this. Many 281 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 5: of us are busy with fantasy lineups and dfs and 282 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:45,959 Speaker 5: vets and other stuff during football season, so I know. 283 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 2: Personally I can't manage ten entries like I'll forget who 284 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 2: I use, where they are. 285 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 5: I'm on if you can do that, it's probably a 286 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 5: good thing if you can do it well. But I'd 287 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 5: rather do a couple well than ten kind of poorly. 288 00:12:58,200 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 2: Personally. 289 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 5: We've been talking a lot of strategy on this pod, 290 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 5: but to maximize your chances, you also need the best tools. 291 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 5: Here's one that I use. 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Once again, that's Poolgenius dot 316 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 5: Com slash Action. 317 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 2: Come on, man, are we doing this or not? 318 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: You know I'm only doing it or not. 319 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 2: I'm on the set. 320 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 4: Point of even being a lie if we can't do this. 321 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 3: One topic that I think is fascinating as it pertains 322 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 3: to Pools survivor Pools is making the choice to be 323 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 3: risky when risk is appropriate. 324 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: And you've both sort of. 325 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 3: Hinted at it where you might take how you might 326 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 3: answer this question, Travis, when is the right time to 327 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 3: take bigger risks? 328 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it kind of just depends on what the 329 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 4: slight gives you every week. But my initial answer was 330 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 4: just early and often, because that's when, like we said, 331 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 4: most of the time, you're going to lose in those 332 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 4: early weeks anyway, So I'd rather just you know, fade 333 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 4: some of those favorites, take those risks early. Now as 334 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 4: far as like I've done somewhere, you get into week eleven, 335 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 4: week twelve and you take like a three point dog, 336 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 4: and then that's where you just kind of you kind 337 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 4: of almost get backed into a corner. And so that's 338 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 4: sometimes you also have to take that risk of I know, 339 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 4: I'm really lowering my chance of advancing this week, but 340 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 4: if I can save these teams for the next three weeks, 341 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 4: I might be able to win this whole thing. So 342 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 4: I think that's another time where you might sacrifice this week, 343 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 4: but you know, if you can make it, you know, 344 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 4: it really ups your chance to win the entire pool. 345 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 4: That's another time to take a big gamble. 346 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 3: Depends on the slate, depends on how everyone else is 347 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 3: doing right, who has what as far as teams available 348 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 3: to them. 349 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: Billy your thoughts on risk and when it's appropriate. 350 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think it's pretty clear that the 351 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 5: best time is early. Just it's uncomfortable taking some of 352 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 5: these not that big favorites in week one, But as 353 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 5: Travis mentioned earlier, these teams were going to look back 354 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 5: and think they should have been two touchdown favorites anyway. 355 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 5: So the risk you might think you're taking in week 356 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 5: one might not end up even being that big of 357 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 5: a risk. And then once you get to three weeks 358 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 5: whatever of somewhat contrarian picks. I like to play safe 359 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 5: through that middle part because we've already set ourselves up 360 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 5: to have different teams at the end, as Travis mentioned, 361 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 5: and then again on the other end, hopefully that leaves 362 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 5: you with some heavy favorites that other teams don't have. 363 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 5: Other thing, I want to point out, if you're down 364 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 5: to a handful of other entries, it might only go 365 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 5: one or two more weeks. It's a really good time 366 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 5: to take the money line, you know, bet the money 367 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 5: lines of the teams against the one you're going with. 368 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 5: You can lock in some profit that way if you 369 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 5: make it to those later weeks, just by knowing that 370 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 5: if this team wins, I advance. If they lose, at 371 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 5: least I get paid out that way. So that makes 372 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 5: me more comfortable with taking risk at the end, just 373 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 5: because I have a way to profit off my success 374 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 5: so far, even if I don't. 375 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 2: Actually catch the survival buol. 376 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 5: Assuming you're an illegal betting state and all those other 377 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 5: good things good stuff. 378 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 3: Pools introduce a psychological component too, and you can study 379 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 3: based on if you're with your buddies, you're with maybe 380 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 3: coworkers from Action Network that you consider them smarter than 381 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 3: your friends, maybe not. 382 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. You guys don't have to speak on that, 383 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: we'll leave that. I'll leave that up to yourselves. 384 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 3: But predicting pool behavior and what you're expecting, trying to 385 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 3: get a sense of what your opponents, your other fellow 386 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 3: participants are going to do, over the course of a season. 387 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 3: What kinds of trends Travis, have you noticed in your 388 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 3: time doing this. 389 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: It can be early in the year. 390 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 3: You can give any scenario you'd like, but examining pool 391 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 3: behavior and what sometimes often happens that you want to 392 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 3: keep in mind so help the audience when it's week 393 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 3: seven or whatever, you know they're out of those first 394 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 3: few weeks, some behavioral trends that can be kept in mind. 395 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean a lot of times it's as simple 396 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 4: as they're going to flock to either the biggest favorite 397 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 4: on the board or like a really bad team that's 398 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 4: a favorite. So a team that's like three and nine 399 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 4: but has to be like a three or four point favorite. 400 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 4: They're like, oh, this is my one chance to use this. 401 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 3: Team, probably against another bad team. Right it would be 402 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 3: a three and nine against one in yeah. 403 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 4: Right, right exactly, And they'll everyone will look at that as, oh, well, 404 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 4: this is my free space to finally get to use 405 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 4: this team and move on to the next week. And 406 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 4: it looks good. And then but if everybody's piling on 407 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 4: that same team, it's kind of what we talked about earlier. Well, 408 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 4: now it's time to look at different direction. 409 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: I'll give you the game. 410 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 3: It's going to be Patriots at Titans on November third, 411 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 3: and the Titans are going to be favored. 412 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, they'll be. 413 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 2: Used the game. 414 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, that's the exact scenario. 415 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 3: November third, Just to paint the picture like, that's We're 416 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 3: two months into the season at that point, right, I'll. 417 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 4: Be shocked if that's not like a Thursday night game. 418 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 4: Everybody's like, all right, here, we'll just go ahead and 419 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 4: lock it. 420 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,159 Speaker 1: In its window. 421 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 3: It will be the fourth or fifth CBS crew on 422 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 3: that game, but oh it's actually on Fox. 423 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:57,640 Speaker 1: Sorry, the fourth or fifth Fox crew. 424 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 4: There we go anyway. But yeah, it'll be a situation 425 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 4: like that. I was actually just looking at any picks 426 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 4: already for Week one and you mentioned it. Forty percent 427 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 4: of the picks are already on Cincinnati. So I mean, 428 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 4: if if you're in a pool with just like some 429 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 4: of your friends and things like that, you can probably 430 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 4: bank on a lot of them going with the biggest favorites, 431 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 4: especially early. And then another thing to keep in mind 432 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 4: is if you're in a pool with a bunch of friends, 433 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 4: you're all, you know, fans of the same team, they 434 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 4: are generally going to think higher of that team than 435 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 4: the market does, and so you can use that to 436 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 4: your advantage as well. 437 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 3: Billy thoughts on pool behavior and things you're through your 438 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 3: experiences you keep in mind, and when you can make 439 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 3: you can project what your other participants might be thinking 440 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 3: or what they're going to scheme up. 441 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, other than the real like high dollar super sharp ones, 442 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 5: I don't think that most people playing these even give 443 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 5: a second thought to what the competition is doing. They're 444 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 5: just I'm trying to pick a winner every week. It's 445 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 5: not that hard. I just have to pick one winner, 446 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 5: you know. That's the logic of most people going in. 447 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,719 Speaker 5: So if you're on a site where you can see 448 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 5: your other players picks, that's super helpful because you can 449 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,479 Speaker 5: then use that to just pick against them. If they're not, 450 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 5: then you need to think about some of the things 451 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 5: that Travis said. You can kind of use public data 452 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,959 Speaker 5: that other sites offer to guestimate where people are going 453 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 5: to be. But yeah, the biggest one, I think it's 454 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,160 Speaker 5: just most people are so hyper focused. I'm just surviving 455 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 5: to the next week. They don't consider trying to gain 456 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,639 Speaker 5: equity or get leverage or stuff like that, which you 457 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 5: can use to your advantage before. 458 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,479 Speaker 3: We move on to pick and pools. I have a question, 459 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 3: and you both might think it doesn't. 460 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: Matter one bit. I'm just curious because, like in Week. 461 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 3: One this year, we're gonna have a Friday night game 462 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 3: after the Thursday night opener Kansas City against Baltimore. Do 463 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 3: either of you have thoughts on like primetime games or 464 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 3: those stay away. 465 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: Spots for you guys, like we'll get. 466 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,199 Speaker 3: To Thanksgiving down the road. I'm just curious if that 467 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: plays any part into your thinking. Do you feel like 468 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 3: there's like bad juju with prime time games because there's 469 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 3: more uh when there's stand not even primetime, but standalone. 470 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: Games where there's just more UH. 471 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 3: You can identify sharper action I think on a game 472 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 3: right for like from a sports betting perspective, Travis anything there. 473 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 4: I don't have any of those rules. I think that 474 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 4: Actually it's a lot of players. I've seen people say, oh, 475 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 4: I'm never taking a road team, I'm never taking either 476 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 4: team in a divisional game because those are always tighter. 477 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 4: Things like that, Like all that's usually baked into the 478 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 4: win probability already, So all of that is already factored in. 479 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,120 Speaker 4: So I think when you try. If you do that, 480 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 4: you're probably limiting your options too much. So I would 481 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 4: just avoid any of those hard and fast rules of oh, well, 482 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 4: you can't take this team because of X, so I 483 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 4: would yeah. 484 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 3: But and Billy, I think that that's something that you 485 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 3: can uh that kind of lends into the discussion of 486 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 3: whole behavior. Maybe that maybe someone like me, I'm giving 487 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 3: you myself as an example, maybe i'd think in that way. 488 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 5: I admittedly, yeah, I'd love what Travis said that once 489 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 5: you have a hard and fast rule, it's probably gonna 490 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 5: do more harm than good. The one thing I will 491 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 5: say is I try to avoid Monday night games when 492 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,639 Speaker 5: I can. And you'll hear in a second why and 493 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 5: that this is a guy who won during the COVID 494 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 5: season and why I'm saying that. But on a Monday 495 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 5: night game, if Patrick Mahomes, you know, falls off a 496 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 5: bridge and can't play, you can't switch. You can only 497 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 5: switch to their opponent. You might not have the opponent available. 498 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 5: If you have a Thursday game and something happens or 499 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 5: there's injuries, you have plenty of time to react. So 500 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 5: it costs you in both ways because if you're locked 501 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 5: into that Monday team and a big favorite opens up 502 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 5: on Sunday because a quarterback is ruled out or whatever, 503 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 5: you miss that opportunity. But also, if something bad happens 504 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 5: or there's horrible weather that might slow down an offensive team, 505 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 5: keep players getting hurt, the whole team, testing positive for 506 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 5: COVID and using like a ninth string quarterback, any of 507 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 5: those situations. Obviously that one's not going to happen anymore, 508 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,719 Speaker 5: but you have less flexibility with the Monday game than 509 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 5: you would otherwise. It mattered more late in the year 510 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 5: because you have less teams available and because injuries and 511 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 5: all those things pile up throughout the season. So keep 512 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 5: that in mind. Like it's not something I will hard 513 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 5: and fast avoid, but if I have a tie breaker 514 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 5: and I'm kind of equal on both teams, I prefer 515 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 5: to get them in as early as possible, just to 516 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 5: give me that optionality to change. 517 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 3: The Action Network podcast Everybody is brought to you by BETMGM. 518 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 3: Use the Bonus Code action when signing up to get 519 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 3: up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if 520 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 3: your first bet does not win. 521 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 1: For new users in Arizona. 522 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 3: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, 523 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 3: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 524 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. 525 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 3: It must be twenty one plus gambling problem called one 526 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 3: eight hundred gambler. All right, let's move on. So there's 527 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 3: your Survivor Pool breakdown from Travis and Billy. Let's head 528 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 3: over to pick and pols. Most are styled after the 529 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 3: original Westgates Super Contest, where participants pay a substantial entry 530 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 3: fee before the season and then you select five games 531 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 3: against the spread each week, and the allure is very clear. 532 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 3: You just pick five games against the spread and have 533 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 3: the greatest season of your life and you win over. 534 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 1: A million dollars. 535 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 3: That's It's ultimately what we're looking at. That's the dream. 536 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 3: Travis reied, what is the biggest mistake pick them pool players. 537 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: Make when entering an NFL Pick them contest? What is 538 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:24,400 Speaker 1: the correct approach? 539 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 4: In your eyes? It definitely mirrors what we talked about 540 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 4: Survivor Pool, and they're just looking at their entry and 541 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 4: not paying attention to what everyone else is doing. Like 542 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 4: you said, you if your plan is to just sun run, 543 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 4: hit seventy percent of your picks and win them all. 544 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 4: Then yeah, sure, that's a great plan. That's a very 545 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 4: very hard thing to do. Good luck. The other way 546 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 4: to do it is to see or have a feel 547 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 4: for what other players are picking and try to take 548 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 4: advantage of that. A lot of these pools youse stale lines, 549 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 4: So it may be minus two and a half in 550 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 4: the pool, then there's an injury or quarterback change. Now 551 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 4: the line's up to five and a half or something 552 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,880 Speaker 4: like that. You can bet that most of those people 553 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 4: are going to take that minus two and a half 554 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 4: now because oh, look at all this closing line value 555 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 4: that I'm getting. But now you have to think of 556 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 4: is that pick actually gaining anything on the field? Is 557 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 4: it even worth it to take the opposite side of 558 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,479 Speaker 4: that and kind of doing some of those projections and 559 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 4: figuring out, okay, when's the right time to either a 560 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 4: just stay away from that game completely, or be maybe 561 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,160 Speaker 4: you're behind after a few weeks, that's a good time too. 562 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 4: All right, I'll just take this plus two and a half. 563 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 4: I know it's uniquely minus ev in this one game, 564 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 4: but if it does win, it gains a lot against 565 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 4: the rest of the field. 566 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, Billy, I would imagine monitoring CLV is something a 567 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 3: lot of players will do. 568 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,400 Speaker 1: Right if the pool, if. 569 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 3: The slate comes out and the lines are established by 570 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 3: Thursday morning so people can use the Thursday night game, 571 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 3: well then those lines are locked through Monday, and then 572 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 3: it kind of transitions. Well what we were just talking 573 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 3: about with those standalone spots Sunday night Monday. But maybe 574 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 3: that makes me a bad pick and pool player, and 575 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 3: I don't know. You tell me what's the correct approach 576 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 3: in terms of wanting to finish first and win the 577 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 3: whole thing? 578 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the first thing is just like we 579 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 5: were saying with Survivor pools, and just like you alluded 580 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,679 Speaker 5: to with dfs being the comparison, the goal isn't to 581 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 5: score as many points. The goal is to score more 582 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 5: points than your opponents. Right, Like, you're not trying to 583 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,360 Speaker 5: solve for what optimizes how many I get? Right, if 584 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 5: you could actually just pick seventy percent, right, don't play 585 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 5: these pools. Just go bet all the money you have 586 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 5: spread out over every NFL game and you know, cash 587 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 5: a huge return every year. 588 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 2: Right, You're a genius. You're the best, better in the world. 589 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 5: If you can do that, go beat the book, Go 590 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 5: beat your friends, Go beat the book right exactly. 591 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, like that one. 592 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 5: If you can really hit seventy percent consistently year over year, 593 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 5: you don't need to be doing this anyway. To your 594 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 5: point on the timing though, and this is one where 595 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 5: the rules in the format vary greatly from operator to operator, 596 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 5: because I have played somewhere the lines come out Wednesday 597 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,959 Speaker 5: evening or Thursday, and you can lock in your picks, 598 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 5: but then you can change at any point, and then 599 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 5: when you change, it gives you the new line. So 600 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 5: you can lock in lions minus two as long as 601 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 5: you keep that, you get that minus two. If they 602 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 5: go to minus six, you know, and you change, then 603 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 5: you then it becomes minus six. So that is really important. 604 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 5: If you're in one where you can lock in but 605 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 5: then change and the lines move with you as soon 606 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,200 Speaker 5: as they come out. Pick five teams kind of doesn't 607 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,679 Speaker 5: matter who If you think there's an injury situation that 608 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 5: might have a big impact, jump on those because they're 609 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 5: more likely to move. The only success I've ever had 610 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,960 Speaker 5: doing this is under that format where I would just 611 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 5: grab five teams, like the minute they dropped if I 612 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 5: got CLV on it, great because unless someone else was 613 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 5: doing what I'm doing, they're not getting that same line, 614 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 5: and then you can get an edge. 615 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 2: On people if it falls between those two numbers. 616 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 5: So that is important and goes back to what we 617 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 5: were saying about the Monday night games. That optionality of 618 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,400 Speaker 5: being able to pivot when news breaks and stuff is huge. Again, 619 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 5: depending on the format, are the lines locked in or 620 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 5: are they going to move when you move your picks. 621 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 2: That's a big, big factor and. 622 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,199 Speaker 3: That speaks to the same things you both emphasize with Survivor. 623 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 3: Know the rules of the pools you're you're getting. 624 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 1: Yourself involved in. 625 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 3: It may not be obvious in pickam pools, but the 626 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 3: ideal strategy for winning a weekly prize and a pick 627 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 3: them pool can be very different from the strategy. 628 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: To try and win the season long prize. 629 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 3: Travis does a pickham pool player have a choice to 630 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,719 Speaker 3: make between striving. 631 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: For weekly or season long prizes. 632 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 4: They can, and especially later in the season, it's easier 633 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 4: to know it's like, Okay, I'm probably not going to 634 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 4: win the season long, so I can go for either 635 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 4: the weekly or sometimes we'll have a monthly or quarterly 636 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 4: type contest to kind of keep people interested that are 637 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 4: already out of it. But early on, I'm still going 638 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 4: to focus on the season long. It may if it 639 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 4: distracts enough people to go for that weekly or monthly contest, 640 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 4: that's actually good for you, so you can, you know, 641 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 4: continue on your way to try to win that big prize. 642 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 4: Like you said, we're not trying to do this to 643 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 4: win the monthly prize or the weekly prize. You're trying 644 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 4: to get that big prize at the end. So I'm 645 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 4: going to try to do everything I can to try 646 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 4: to win that one. 647 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 3: About you, Billy would deciphering the weekly prizes that might 648 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 3: be available to a player or the season long prize too. 649 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 5: Elaborator a little bit what Travis said. If you're just 650 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 5: trying to solve for winning that weekly or monthly prize, 651 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 5: then you just take the spot where you got the 652 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 5: most line value or the heaviest favorite that you can 653 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 5: get at a better price whatever. Obviously, you know that 654 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 5: much of the field is going to be on that, 655 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 5: which makes them not an optimal pick to get leverage 656 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 5: on the rest of the field. With that said, usually 657 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 5: the monthly or quarterly or whatever prizes are relatively insignificant 658 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 5: compared to you know, even the tenth place finish or 659 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 5: whatever in the big one, so I mostly avoid those 660 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 5: until late in the season when I'm inevitably so far 661 00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 5: out of first place that it's the only thing you 662 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 5: got left play for either of you. 663 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 3: Any other tips suggestions that we haven't covered for pick 664 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 3: and polls, Travis. 665 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 4: One thing you can do, I've noticed a lot of 666 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 4: people like to kind of flaunt that they're in these content. 667 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 4: You can actually just search on like X or Twitter, 668 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 4: like a hashtag or something and see a lot of 669 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 4: people's picks and get a good idea of what kind 670 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 4: of the popular picks are that way, because they're really 671 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 4: hard to find, especially like if you're in like the 672 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 4: Super Contest or something like that, you can search for 673 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 4: those and find quite a few people, maybe they're media 674 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 4: members or something like that, that are trying to, I guess, 675 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 4: brag about being in this and kind of get an idea. Okay, 676 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 4: that's probably what the public's going to be on as well, 677 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 4: and that'll give you kind of a leg up of Okay, now, 678 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 4: how can I take advantage of this information? 679 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 3: So, Billy, what Travis is saying is when he listens 680 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 3: to the UFC betting preview and we find out who 681 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 3: Drake's betting, right, Well, Drake's got some sway, you know. 682 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: That's kind of what he means. I guess. I mean, 683 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: he's not a media member, but you know he's got 684 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 1: some pull. 685 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. And the only thing I'd add is. 686 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 3: Amusing Drake is an example, Billy, to amplify the conversation. 687 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: That's all personally. 688 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, the metaphorical Drake, right, the Drake that exists in 689 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 5: our hearts, not the actual Drake. But no, the only 690 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 5: thing I'd add is we've talked a lot about trying 691 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 5: to be controlling and trying to make unique picks. One 692 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 5: unique feature of the pick and pools, though, is if 693 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 5: you are up or even in the top ten, if 694 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 5: you're at a position where you'd be very excited with 695 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 5: the amount of money you want if you finished there, 696 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 5: you want to do the exact opposite of being controlled, 697 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 5: and you want the same picks as everyone else. Because 698 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,480 Speaker 5: if I'm in first place and Travis is one point 699 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 5: behind me, the perfect scenario for me is we have 700 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 5: all five same picks, whether they all win or lose. 701 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 5: He can't catch me. So that's just something to keep 702 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 5: in mind. It doesn't have to be first. You know, 703 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 5: some of the tenth, twentieth whatever place payouts are pretty 704 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 5: significant relative to the buy and so once you know 705 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 5: about halfway through the season, if you're in a position 706 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,959 Speaker 5: where you'd be happy with the payout based on your 707 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 5: current standing, the logic totally flips on its head where 708 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 5: you want to mirror the field as much as possible 709 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 5: so people can't catch you. 710 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 3: Excellent point, Very good point. I found myself in that 711 00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 3: scenario last year. Personally, I know the audience doesn't care, 712 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 3: but I'm glad you brought that up because I think 713 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 3: a lot of people can relate to that in their 714 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 3: experiences with pick and pools. 715 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 1: One more you know, oh yeah, very much so. 716 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 3: One last thing, and it relates to getting uncomfortable taking risks. 717 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 3: As we discussed in the Survivor breakdown, I most people 718 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 3: hate to bet bad teams. Right Like last year, we 719 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 3: had so many quarterbacks playing on these different teams. I 720 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 3: forget the exact number, but the amount of quarterbacks that 721 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 3: saw time in an NFL game was pretty disgusting. There 722 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 3: were weeks I remember betting or throwing in one of 723 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 3: my five having Carolina in there, even New England Carolina 724 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 3: Times actually was okay, New England was not any thought there, Travis, 725 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 3: and just being comfortable with picking a crap team. Yeah, 726 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 3: so the way that almost has to happen, I think 727 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 3: if you want to separate from the pack one way 728 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 3: or the other, Oh. 729 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 4: For sure. I was plugging in Jake Browning's first start 730 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 4: last year. It was I was like, all right, let's 731 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 4: do it. I think one thing that helps psychologically is 732 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,320 Speaker 4: just as soon as you enter the contest, assume that 733 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 4: money is gone, you have already lost it. It is 734 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 4: that's the most likely result anyway. The thing you want 735 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 4: to do is win every you know what x years, 736 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 4: But for the most part, you're going to lose most 737 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 4: of these contests. There's only you know, a few winners 738 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 4: every year. So if you just think about, Okay, well 739 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,160 Speaker 4: I've already lost this money anyway, I might as well 740 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,600 Speaker 4: shoot the moon and go for it, that kind of helps. 741 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 4: Take these teams that look disgusting. You're like, there's no 742 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 4: way they're ever going to keep this close, and just 743 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 4: kind of follow the math and just plug your nose 744 00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 4: and take them anyway. 745 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 1: Right, anything to add there're a billion. 746 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 3: It's just I'm thinking I mentioned the Patriots and the 747 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 3: Titans when they play the first week of November. 748 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 1: That could be disgusting. 749 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,800 Speaker 3: I mean, who knows what the Giants they seem to 750 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 3: already hate Daniel Jones or recording this two weeks before 751 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,359 Speaker 3: opening night or just about two weeks before opening night, 752 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 3: so I know we have some time here for more 753 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 3: storylines to develop. But I mean quarterback play I'm hitting on. 754 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 3: I'm really hitting that's the key to the whole thing. 755 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,959 Speaker 3: We know, quarterbacks move lines whether they're in or out, 756 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 3: and have an effect on the spread, some more important 757 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 3: than others, understandably. So yeah, here's just your thoughts there 758 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 3: on the risks involved. You're going to have to pick 759 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 3: some bad teams that are probably getting more than a touchdown. 760 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 3: I should add, right, You're you're getting points, which that 761 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 3: makes it more comfortable, I suppose. 762 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 763 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 5: I mean, broadly speaking, the NFL points spread market on 764 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 5: the most efficient markets in the world, even when we 765 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,560 Speaker 5: look at you know, financial markets and stuff like that. 766 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 5: So I don't really care about the team. I don't 767 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,240 Speaker 5: think that deep about it, because if you're getting plus 768 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 5: ten and a half in the market thinks that's about 769 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 5: what it's going to fall at most of the time. 770 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 5: Have you figured out a way to get CLV? Is 771 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 5: there a chance somebody gets hurt and moves that. Those 772 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 5: are the things I'm looking at, not so much the 773 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 5: team quality overall, because again, I personally believe that the 774 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 5: NFL points spreads in major markets are pretty much what 775 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 5: they should be. So once you get that out of 776 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:15,400 Speaker 5: your head, it doesn't really matter what the what the 777 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 5: name next to the number. 778 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:17,320 Speaker 2: Is, it's just the number. 779 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,760 Speaker 3: I think that's worth bringing up though, because that could 780 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 3: it reminds folks, you know where you could say you're 781 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 3: in a situation though, where you're on the outside looking 782 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 3: in of placing to earn a price, get a little uncomfortable. 783 00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 1: And I liked what you said. 784 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:33,840 Speaker 3: I think Travis sent or maybe it was Billy, I 785 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 3: forget you both sounded the same. 786 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:36,720 Speaker 1: When you've said this that when. 787 00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,719 Speaker 3: You invest your one hundred dollars or whatever it is, 788 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:39,759 Speaker 3: just pretend it's gone. 789 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 1: Who said that? 790 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:41,360 Speaker 4: That was me? 791 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 2: That was you? 792 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,720 Speaker 1: Okay, thanks, you just said thank. 793 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,280 Speaker 3: Okay, Hey, you know, come on going back and forth 794 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,440 Speaker 3: and processing a lot of information here, So thank you 795 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 3: for clarifying who said that. 796 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. 797 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,560 Speaker 3: There are your your pool breakdowns here on the Action 798 00:35:55,640 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 3: Network Podcast, Your Survivor Pool Strategy and pick them pool Strategy, 799 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,400 Speaker 3: Billy Ward, Travis Reid. You can find their work Travis 800 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 3: Reid over at bet Labs as well as Action Network. 801 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 3: Billy Ward does a great job covering football and other 802 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,240 Speaker 3: sports over at Action networkactionnetwork dot Com. Find those guys 803 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,239 Speaker 3: in the app as well. With football season right here, 804 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 3: be on the lookout for more NFL episodes leading up 805 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 3: to week one, plus our full lineup of weekly NFL 806 00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 3: episodes this season, including our NFL Betting preview with Stucky 807 00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 3: and Raybond. They have reunited. They just did one of 808 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 3: their first shows this past week, so they're shaking off 809 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:34,839 Speaker 3: the cobwebs. They're ready to go, and we will have 810 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,799 Speaker 3: NFL Best Bets episodes returning every Friday morning. First thing, 811 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,560 Speaker 3: we'll get those out to you before the weekend once 812 00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,720 Speaker 3: the season kicks off. For Travis Reid, Billy Ward, Brendan Glasheen, 813 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 3: thanks again for listening. We'll see you here next time 814 00:36:47,239 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 3: on the Action Network Podcast presented by BETMGM. 815 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,440 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 816 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,680 Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 817 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 818 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:10,440 Speaker 4: hundred Gambler