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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Wednesday, the ninth of August here in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak You Up Podcast. I'm Caroline

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Speaker 1: Hepka and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll coming up today. Research suggests Britain is

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Speaker 2: headed for five years of last economic growth.

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Speaker 1: The UK's voter register has been hit by a cyber

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Speaker 1: attack but no one noticed for fifteen months.

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Speaker 2: And banker bonuses taken another hit, with M and A

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Speaker 2: payouts set to bear the brunt.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. The

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Speaker 1: UK faces five years of economic stagnation after a failure

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Speaker 1: to level up. That's according to a report from the

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Speaker 1: National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Bloomberg's Crispit reports.

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Speaker 3: Britain is headed for five years of lost growth. The

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Speaker 3: influential centrist think tank NISA says that it now doesn't

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Speaker 3: believe UK GDP will top pre pandemic levels until twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four. But perhaps more damagingly for the government, the

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Speaker 3: institute zeroed in on a failure to level up the

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Speaker 3: UK economy. While real wages continue to rise in London

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Speaker 3: in the Western Midlands, the think tank says they're expected

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Speaker 3: to have fallen by twenty twenty four. That's a big

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Speaker 3: problem for Rishi Sunak. At the last election, Boris Johnson

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Speaker 3: won a landslide victory on the promise of bringing economic

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Speaker 3: prosperity to the whole of the UK. The report also

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Speaker 3: says that any incoming government will have to answer some

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Speaker 3: very hard questions about how they're going to generate growth

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Speaker 3: in London. Chris Pitts, Bloomberg day Break Europe.

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Speaker 2: The UK's Electoral Commissioners revealed that hackers were able to

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Speaker 2: access the register of voters for fifteen months without being detected.

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Speaker 2: The body responsible for overseeing the UK's democratic process says

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Speaker 2: it's not able to confirm what information may have been accessed.

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Speaker 2: The chair of the Electoral Commission, John Pollinger, says the

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Speaker 2: data accessed by what he described as hostile actors is limited.

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Speaker 4: The part they got into contains the electoral registers everyone

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Speaker 4: in the United Kingdom, so that is simply the name

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Speaker 4: and address of each of those individuals. There's no further

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Speaker 4: information other than that but name and address, and people

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Speaker 4: will be potentially concerned about that.

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Speaker 2: While the Commissions John Pollinger says there was not a

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Speaker 2: high risk to individuals as a result of the hack,

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Speaker 2: the news racist questions about security for sensitive digital records

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Speaker 2: held by British institutions.

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Speaker 1: Now, Italy's government says that it's windfall tax on bank

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Speaker 1: profits will be limited to zero point one percent of

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Speaker 1: affirm's assets, but questions remain over whether the limit on

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Speaker 1: the forty percent levee will apply to global or just

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Speaker 1: Italian assets. Plnmberg's Alessandro Migliaccio in Rome says that there

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Speaker 1: are still details to be earned out.

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Speaker 5: This was really unexpected. There had been some noise in

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Speaker 5: the government about doing something like this, but it was

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Speaker 5: not in any of the drafts we'd see, not in

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Speaker 5: any of the drafts any of the you know, senior

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Speaker 5: government reporters had seen, even the ones close to the government.

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Speaker 5: It seems to be some kind of cool, if you

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Speaker 5: can't put it that way. From the populist part of

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Speaker 5: Malone's government. The Prey Minister Salvini, who's a leader of

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Speaker 5: the League party, he announced the move. It was not

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Speaker 5: the Finance Minister, Georgietti, and neither did the Finance Minister

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Speaker 5: actually go to the press conference, so we were a

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Speaker 5: bit surprised.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Alessandro Migliaccio. There now news of the tax sent

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Speaker 1: shares in banks, including UniCredit and in Tessa San Paolo tumbling.

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Speaker 2: Turning next to China, where the latest figures have shown

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Speaker 2: the economy siding into deflation, with consumer and producer prizes

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Speaker 2: both declining. In July, CPI fell by zero point three

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Speaker 2: percent from a year earlier, while PPI retreated for a

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Speaker 2: tenth consecutive month, contracting four point four percent in July

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Speaker 2: versus a year ago. Morgan Stanley's chief China economist, Robin Jing,

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Speaker 2: says that the data will increase calls for stimulus from Beijing.

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Speaker 5: What China you think deflation?

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Speaker 6: For sure? The question is for how long?

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Speaker 4: And I think it's up to the policy Mika where

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Speaker 4: we willy react with accordingly to the fifth co on monitory.

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Speaker 2: Eating Robert Ching's comment. Robin Jing's comments reflect review from

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Speaker 2: investors who are betting that the weak data will prompt

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Speaker 2: China's central Bank to ramp up monetary stimulus. However, policymakers

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Speaker 2: have so far been unwilling to take action as they

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Speaker 2: wrestle with the twin concerns of a weaker currency and

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Speaker 2: elevated debt levels.

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Speaker 1: Now, Amazon is said to be in talks to become

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Speaker 1: an anchor investor in the initial public offering for the

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Speaker 1: chip designer. Arm A sort Of told Bloomberg that the

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Speaker 1: e commerce giant is one of around ten tech companies

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Speaker 1: in discussions, including Intel, Alphabet, and Nvidia. The listing is

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Speaker 1: expected to raise as much as ten billion dollars and

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Speaker 1: could take place as soon as next month.

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Speaker 2: We Work shares have plummeted by more than twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent in extended trading after the company said there's a

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Speaker 2: substantial doubt about its ability to continue operating. The story

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Speaker 2: from Bloomberg's Charlie Palace.

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Speaker 6: New York based we Work sites sustain losses and canceled

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Speaker 6: memberships to its office space. The coworking company says it

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Speaker 6: will focus over the next twelve months on reducing rental costs,

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Speaker 6: negotiating more favorable leases, increasing revenue, and raising capital. The

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Speaker 6: warning comes mere months after we Work struck a deal

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Speaker 6: with some of its biggest creditors and soft Bank to

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Speaker 6: cut its step load by around one and a half

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Speaker 6: billion dollars and extend other maturities in New York. Charlie

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Speaker 6: Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 1: Now a large number of bankers will see their bonuses

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Speaker 1: tumble this year as deal making remains stagnant. According to

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Speaker 1: pay consultants Johnson Associates, M and A advisors will face

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Speaker 1: the biggest hit, with payouts to drop by as much

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Speaker 1: as twenty five percent. Traders are also in line for

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Speaker 1: a cut, with bonuses expected to fall by up to

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Speaker 1: ten percent. But it's not all bad news for the industry,

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Speaker 1: with those in wealth management set for a boost as

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Speaker 1: the sector continues to outperform, it.

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Speaker 2: Says, as some of our top stories on the program

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Speaker 2: this morning, and the story that's called eye though, is

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Speaker 2: the legal action being faced now by the water company

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Speaker 2: Severn Trent. This is over the discharge of untreated sewage

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Speaker 2: into UK waters and could in fact now see the

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Speaker 2: company facing the equivalent of a class action lawsuit. Here

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Speaker 2: from Customers for seven Trends.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, it's an incredible story. It's had a

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Speaker 1: lot of focus of course in the public. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, because it deals with sewage into the waterways,

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Speaker 1: the rivers and lakes and streams of the UK. Professor

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Speaker 1: Carolyn Roberts is the person who's brought this lawsuit and

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Speaker 1: she's using the law from Lee Day, who are sort

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Speaker 1: of often involved in these sorts of issues. She's a

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Speaker 1: water and environment researcher and a consultant bringing the case

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Speaker 1: on behalf of eight million customers. It's got to go

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Speaker 1: to a panel because this is actually all being done

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Speaker 1: through competition regulators, so there are a few hurdles before

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Speaker 1: it actually could potentially go to trial. But it would

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Speaker 1: be very, very significant because it could basically, i mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, were it to be one, it could then

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Speaker 1: mean payouts for customers because she's saying that her argument

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Speaker 1: is that customers are being overcharged because this company has

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Speaker 1: allegedly not reported, you know, all of the sewage that

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Speaker 1: it has released into these waters. Obviously, there's a very

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Speaker 1: stiff defense though, being put up by seven Trends.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's sorry of the company saying this is a

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Speaker 2: highly speculative claim with no merit, which they strongly refute

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Speaker 2: and say that if any pollution does occur, they're always

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Speaker 2: reported to the Environment agency and it would be wholly

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Speaker 2: and completely wronged game to the country. There is also

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Speaker 2: another element story that's interesting too, and that's the forum

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Speaker 2: that the action is taking. It is one of the

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Speaker 2: rare uses of this class action regime known as collective

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Speaker 2: proceedings in this country. It's only been in place since

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Speaker 2: twenty fifteen. It has to go to a panel of

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Speaker 2: judges for allow the case to go ahead, and it's

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Speaker 2: something that there have been very few of them that

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Speaker 2: have actually been allowed to go ahead since it was

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Speaker 2: introduced in twenty fifteen. There are a few pending against

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Speaker 2: big tech companies and a couple of others on competition

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Speaker 2: grounds as well. But there's a legal significance to this

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Speaker 2: case as well.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. And look, you get a flavor of the coverage

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Speaker 1: of this story if you look at the Guardian. One

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Speaker 1: of the quotes from the person who's taking in this action,

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Speaker 1: the last two decades have been catastrophic for rivers and

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Speaker 1: I want something done about it, so big, you know,

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Speaker 1: resonance I suppose for people here in the UK of

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Speaker 1: that story.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly, very interesting one to watch. Let's get more

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Speaker 2: details though now on our top story around the latest

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Speaker 2: report into the UK economy from the National Institute of

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Speaker 2: Economic and Social Research Bloomberg ex Chames Wilcock is with

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Speaker 2: us for the details. James, good morning to you. What

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Speaker 2: are the headlines from this report?

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Speaker 8: I mean broad these steven most G seven economies have

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Speaker 8: reached their pre pandemic levels of growth and are now

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Speaker 8: starting to grow beyond them. The UK hasn't and NISSA

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Speaker 8: doesn't think it will until twenty twenty four, and that

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Speaker 8: makes five years of lost growth. In Japan it took

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Speaker 8: ten years because it became a lost decade. This is

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Speaker 8: a sizeable amount of time, and the point to the

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Speaker 8: fact that then NISA, which is an independent think tank,

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Speaker 8: is basically worse than the Bank of England's outlook on

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Speaker 8: every metric. They see inflation lasting longer and sort of

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Speaker 8: still being higher bang than ssas four point nine percent

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Speaker 8: money of the yar NISSA five point two. They see

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Speaker 8: inequality worthening, which is the key problem for the government

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Speaker 8: in particular to pledge to level up. If you're in London,

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Speaker 8: your pay is going up by seven percent nominally, which

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Speaker 8: is still a real times pake up for most people.

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Speaker 8: If you're outside London it could be as low for

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Speaker 8: the poorest household as a drop of seventeen percent. So

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Speaker 8: there's a massive gulf widening in the country in terms

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Speaker 8: of inequality. They point to that added to the growth picture,

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Speaker 8: added to the inflation picture they all point to say,

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Speaker 8: a very very difficult picture for the UK going forward.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, I mean this report will surely cause a stir

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Speaker 1: I mean, basically we're in the middle of those five

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Speaker 1: years of lost growth according to NISA. The issue though,

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Speaker 1: I mean, they are frequent critics, I would say of

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Speaker 1: the government. They do often analyze government policy and what

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Speaker 1: do you think the ramifications of the report might be.

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Speaker 8: Well, if it is correct, it is a massive challenge

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Speaker 8: to the government because it basically steps on three of

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Speaker 8: Rittis core pledges. Half inflation, grow the economy, shrink the

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Speaker 8: public debts, half the inflation. They think they'll miss the

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Speaker 8: target this year. Growth they say, not only as growth stemying.

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Speaker 8: They put a sixty percent chance of a recession next year.

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Speaker 8: And then on public debts. Something that's buried in the

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Speaker 8: report there's quite a fascinating one is they say we're

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Speaker 8: at full employment, they argue, but even so we are

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Speaker 8: unable to get out of a fiscal deficits. They argue

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Speaker 8: the UK structurally cannot find more money even with a

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Speaker 8: fully working labor force to finance change it. So that

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Speaker 8: if they are right, they are saying the UK government

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Speaker 8: effectively has very little fiscal maneuvering room to do anything

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Speaker 8: about the situation that finds itself in. So the reason

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Speaker 8: why this report is causing such a problem for government

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Speaker 8: is it basically argues you're both failing in terms of

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Speaker 8: all of the policy positions, you're setting yourself up as

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Speaker 8: crucial and you have very little things you can do

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Speaker 8: about that.

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Speaker 2: Okay, James, thanks very much for bringing us the details

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Speaker 2: of that. That's been James Wilcock. They're up next to

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Speaker 2: a monumental data breach in Northern Ireland. A Skiol fees

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Speaker 2: that to top fifty k.

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Speaker 8: Now the paper review on Bluebird, Daybreak Europe. The news

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Speaker 8: you need to know from today's papers.

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Speaker 1: Gon Jines for more. Let's start with a Guardians store

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Speaker 1: in Northern Ireland police officers details exposed in quote monumental breach.

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Speaker 1: Good morning Caroline, good morning to you.

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Speaker 7: Yes, indeed, so this story has been making waves since

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Speaker 7: it was released yesterday and the Police Service of Northern

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Speaker 7: Ireland has really apologized for the security breach which has

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Speaker 7: compromised the data of every serving officer and member of staff.

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Speaker 7: The service published the information in response to a freedom

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Speaker 7: of information request. Now that info was actually available to

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Speaker 7: the public Caroline and Stephen for about two to three

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Speaker 7: hours and what a lot of people are saying it

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Speaker 7: was basically human error which occurred and there was a

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Speaker 7: spreadsheet with all this information on online and.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a big thing.

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Speaker 7: And the breach involved things like surname initials, the rank

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Speaker 7: or grade, the work location and departments of all PSNI staff.

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Speaker 7: But the one thing that wasn't revealed was a home address.

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Speaker 7: But still there seems to be a lot of information

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Speaker 7: that was out there and Assistant Chief Constable Chris Todd apologized,

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Speaker 7: saying the severe terror threat facing officers has made the

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Speaker 7: data breach the last thing that anyone in the organization

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Speaker 7: wants to be hearing and the chair of the Police

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Speaker 7: Federation for Northern Ireland has called for in urgent inquiry.

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Speaker 7: So there we are something about this data breach which

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Speaker 7: is highly sensitive information. Stephen, Yeah, certainly.

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Speaker 2: And look it's also in the context of obviously the

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Speaker 2: increased threats that there have been in Northern Ireland in

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Speaker 2: recent months as well, something that's very worrying for people

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Speaker 2: who are a members the police forces. Are talking about

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Speaker 2: some over six thousand PSNI officers as well being affected

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Speaker 2: by this too, and you've had you know, political reaction

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Speaker 2: as well, saying that people are deeply concerned, thinking of

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Speaker 2: the Alliance Party leader former Justice Minister in Naomi Long

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Speaker 2: saying that this is something that is going to leave

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Speaker 2: people feeling very vulnerable as well, that it's so an

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Speaker 2: interesting story to follow. Let's go to the Telegraph next

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Speaker 2: leanne the headline their private skill fees to soar above

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand pounds a year.

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Speaker 7: Yes, indeed, and that will be for the first time

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Speaker 7: we'll be seeing this figure because that was away to

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Speaker 7: the threshold. But now people are going to be paying

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Speaker 7: more for education. So Harrow's School, Dullage College and Cheltenham

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Speaker 7: Ladies College are among the ten boarding schools that have

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Speaker 7: increased fees for domestic pupils above that fifty thousand pounds threshold.

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Speaker 7: So across private schools, fees are actually rising at the

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Speaker 7: fastest pace in twenty years. And the reason for this

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Speaker 7: is it's basically reflecting higher food, energy and wage bulls

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Speaker 7: and also rising teacher pension contributions. But this story and

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Speaker 7: the Telegraph says that the middle class of been priced

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Speaker 7: out of the sector and this is the warning at

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Speaker 7: the moment. So some school leaders have also said they

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Speaker 7: are preparing parents for the threat of a labor government

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Speaker 7: imposing that on those fees too, which will make it

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Speaker 7: more expensive. So that story they're in the Telegraph.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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