1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 2: Single best idea which was that we worked all weekend 3 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 2: and particularly coming out of Monday evening on a changeable 4 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 2: news flow. It was just extraordinary. Massive shout out to 5 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:30,159 Speaker 2: Amandolineum and Kathy Jones at black Rock and Schwap for 6 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 2: getting as started this morning on a bond market which 7 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: is globally priced down yield up. This will be a 8 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: huge focus into September, and of course all of us 9 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: wrapped around titanic economic data this week into the jobs 10 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: report and then revision announcements into I believe it's September 11 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 2: ninth as well, where we have a real commitment to 12 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: a study of the labor market. When we can get 13 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 2: market breaking news out of the way. We couldn't do 14 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: that today led by merger frenzy. It was Merger Tuesday 15 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 2: instead of Merger Monday. And again thanks to all of 16 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 2: our team for just really adapting spur of the moment 17 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: to a changeable news landscape. With that was a discussion 18 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 2: over tariffs. We went academic and then political here from 19 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 2: the Budget Lab at Yale. Ernie Tedesky from. 20 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 3: The one hand, like the textbook will tell you that 21 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 3: this is a one time price adjustment. On the other hand, 22 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: when the given the chaotic rollout of the tariffs and 23 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: the gradual rollout of the tariffs, even if it is 24 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: a one time price adjustment, because it's so you know, incremental, 25 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 3: it feels like true inflation to people because they get 26 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 3: a little bit one month, they get a little bit 27 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 3: more the next month, and so it doesn't feel like 28 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 3: one time. It feels like it's this ongoing thing. Plus, 29 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 3: there is the FED concern that this is going to 30 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 3: spill over into supply chains and actually be more persistently inflationary. 31 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 3: We haven't seen evidence of that yet, but you know, 32 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: like I said, we're wait, it's not the beginning anymore. 33 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 3: But it's not you know, it's not the late game still, 34 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 3: so we're still looking for more evidence. 35 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: Ernie Tedesky at the Budget Lab at Yale, whatever your politics, 36 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,839 Speaker 2: I just can't say enough about how they publish. Oh 37 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 2: they'll publish once every ten days on a given topic. 38 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 2: But the Budget Lab at Yale, whatever your politics, has 39 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 2: a clarity of information about what is going on. I'm 40 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 2: sure there'll be a flurry of stuff this week of 41 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 2: September start to the new season. If you will from 42 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 2: the Budget lab at Yale and Ernie Tedesky on the 43 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: political moments for tariffs in Washington. Henrietta Tre's veda partners. 44 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: In my world, which is very much tariff world. It 45 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: shows you the negative consequences of tariffs. You penalize our 46 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: global allies, NATO allies, You push India, who we've tried 47 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: to foster a relationship with for thirty years, that have 48 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: made incredible strides considering their neighboring China. Is really really telling. 49 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: And the part that's really striking is how personal the 50 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: President makes his relationships with all of these men, whether 51 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: it's President She, President Putin, or Mody. The President has 52 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,399 Speaker 1: gone out of his way to explain that he can 53 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: fix the US the Ukraine Russia war on day one, 54 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: Gaza on day one. He has an incredible relationship with 55 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: President She, an incredible relationship with Mody, and yet we 56 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: see precisely the opposite, this relationship actually not being valid 57 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: and driving those men together because of the tyrifs. It's 58 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: a obvious consequence, but nonetheless unintended from the administration. 59 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 2: Henrietta Trees, who's just helped us so much special things 60 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: also to Terry Haynes a Pangaea for his perspective, and 61 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 2: an exceptional Tuesday to begin the September season. Again, We're 62 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 2: really going to focus over the next number of days 63 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 2: on the American labor economy. Huge economic data for Wednesday Thursday, 64 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: into the jobs report Friday, all sorts of revision analysis 65 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 2: up into the second week of Stember. And with all that, 66 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 2: the discussion among experts about a potential government shutdown the 67 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 2: end of September into October one on your podcast on Apple, 68 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea