Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle.
Speaker 2: I am Ryan Warmley, joined as always by Mike may Or.
Speaker 2: We are talking fantasy baseball. I know this is a
Speaker 2: week of dynasty, rookie drafts, and football. Obviously, you know
Speaker 2: the fallout from the NFL Draft, Kentucky Derby's coming up,
Speaker 2: so a lot of stuff going on. But it is
Speaker 2: still the harder fantasy baseball season. So we are still
Speaker 2: here to round the bases with everybody, talk about some
Speaker 2: macro level topics. See what's been on our minds in
Speaker 2: regards to the baseball season as we enter the first
Speaker 2: week of May here still obviously very early in the season. Mayor,
Speaker 2: how are you doing? We were talking before the episode.
Speaker 2: Not a ton of baseball watched in the last week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been watching a lot of numbers and reading
Speaker 3: a lot of data, But in terms of actually watching baseball,
Speaker 3: it's been a lot of catching whatever highlights I can,
Speaker 3: doing whatever research I can, and a lot of NFL
Speaker 3: Draft and Kentucky Derby and stuff on my ad.
Speaker 2: Just one of those weeks, but we still got plenty
Speaker 2: of baseball stuff that we wanted to talk about.
Speaker 1: At the very least, no guest week.
Speaker 2: We're hoping to have guests next week, so we'll see
Speaker 2: if we can get that back next week. This week
Speaker 2: just the two of us, so hopefully a bit shorter
Speaker 2: of an episode.
Speaker 1: Let's dive right in with Round the Bases up first.
Speaker 2: Mike Trout obviously, a couple of days ago a somewhat surprising,
Speaker 2: you know, revelation that he was gonna have surgery due
Speaker 2: to an issue with his knee. So this, I guess
Speaker 2: I shouldn't say it's that surprising because it's Mike Trout,
Speaker 2: and it's telling that we might have predicted at the
Speaker 2: beginning of the season and even into the season, but
Speaker 2: surprising in that kind of came out of nowhere. So
Speaker 2: obviously the timeline for when he'll be back is still
Speaker 2: someone in the air. Was playing amazingly well, was running again.
Speaker 2: You know, it was tied for the lead league in homers.
Speaker 2: Just looked really like vintage Mike Trout, and it was
Speaker 2: really really fun to watch. And there were a lot
Speaker 2: of folks who maybe had a bit of fomo for
Speaker 2: having not drafted him, and now they're not feeling that
Speaker 2: way anymore. So, you know, when you first saw the
Speaker 2: Trout surgery, you know what crossed your mind.
Speaker 3: Well, I immediately thought, like, especially because of everything we
Speaker 3: just talked about, how busy we've been, just I just thought,
Speaker 3: what have I missed? Like when did this happen? Why
Speaker 3: does he need knee surgery? All of a sudden I
Speaker 3: didn't realize he like got hurt, and then all of
Speaker 3: a sudden, now he has a tournamentiscus. The only good
Speaker 3: thing there so far is he wasn't put on the
Speaker 3: sixty day IL. Now. It was like ominous when they
Speaker 3: when the Angels first came out and said they hoped
Speaker 3: he would return this season, which is always just a
Speaker 3: brutal initial timeline to receive after an injury. But at
Speaker 3: least they didn't initially, you know, they didn't throw him
Speaker 3: right on that sixty day IL. He's on the ten
Speaker 3: day injured list. We still, like you said, don't have
Speaker 3: a ton information about you know how long this is
Speaker 3: going to take. You know, from everything I understand, like
Speaker 3: the range of outcomes for recovering from him in this
Speaker 3: case is like pretty big. So it's almost like it
Speaker 3: could be like a month, but it could be like
Speaker 3: four months. We kind of don't really know right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough and you know, not all the like
Speaker 2: bad of all Dad was that encouraging from him this year?
Speaker 2: Like his hard hit rate was way down, He's only
Speaker 2: batting two twenty, but the loge angle was up. Obviously
Speaker 2: he was hitting home runs. And again just that he
Speaker 2: was running again was so exciting. He already had six
Speaker 2: stolen bases here in the first month of the season.
Speaker 2: Let's let's say, like, I don't know, six to eight weeks,
Speaker 2: just I'm throwing out a timeline. There's I have no
Speaker 2: knowledge of that being the case. Let's let's let's say
Speaker 2: six to eight weeks he's back, like you know, late June.
Speaker 2: Are you going to be ranking him based on the
Speaker 2: player we saw in April at that point rest of
Speaker 2: the season or are you just like so burnt by
Speaker 2: the injuries that it's like, how can you justify any
Speaker 2: kind of optimism there?
Speaker 3: I so kind of kind of two size one. You're burnt,
Speaker 3: and so you don't want to I mean, but like
Speaker 3: we were burnt coming into the season, so we were
Speaker 3: still being helpful. But also you have to wonder when
Speaker 3: he comes back, he's probably not going to run like
Speaker 3: he was running right this was already he was already
Speaker 3: running more than he had in the last four or
Speaker 3: five years. There's no way he's going to come back
Speaker 3: from this miscous injury and just go right back to
Speaker 3: stealing six bases every month, So you have to take
Speaker 3: that into account too. I was actually surprised he was
Speaker 3: hitting two twenty. I was looking at that while you
Speaker 3: were talking, and I kept looking for a second source
Speaker 3: because I thought it was wrong. I was like, I
Speaker 3: would have guess three twenty, expect about at seven.
Speaker 2: It's been a lot more just power speed than it's
Speaker 2: been you know, the contact, but the power speed has
Speaker 2: been so great and again so vintage Strout that it's
Speaker 2: been hard to uh, hard to complain about that. You know,
Speaker 2: this is a conversation for a longer day, maybe like
Speaker 2: an off season episode if we're lucky enough to be
Speaker 2: doing those.
Speaker 1: In the winter.
Speaker 2: But you know, just watching him, like he was emotional
Speaker 2: when he was talking with reporters, just it's hard not
Speaker 2: to think of him as one of the great what
Speaker 2: ifs if he could stay healthy. I mean, we're we're
Speaker 2: gonna be looking at the end of his career and
Speaker 2: he's gonna have five, maybe six hundred home runs and
Speaker 2: we're going to be thinking, man, he could have had
Speaker 2: eight hundred. You know, I think I saw somebody tweet
Speaker 2: somebody to that same effect. But it's like truly pacing
Speaker 2: to have been one of the five or ten greatest
Speaker 2: baseball players ever. And you know, he's still going to
Speaker 2: be a walk in Hall of Famer who's going to
Speaker 2: get ninety plus percentage of the vote the first day
Speaker 2: he's eligible. But it's it's hard, it's hard to imagine.
Speaker 2: You know, it's similar to like the back half of
Speaker 2: Griffy's career. I saw that comparison made to and just
Speaker 2: I don't really have a question for you in that regards,
Speaker 2: but just you know, the Hall of Fame stuff and
Speaker 2: his legacy really and even setting aside like the fact
Speaker 2: that he never gets to play the postseason because the
Speaker 2: team's always bad.
Speaker 3: That's what I was gonna say, is that we've been robbed,
Speaker 3: like on both fens too, We've been robbed of the injuries,
Speaker 3: and we robbed in the postseason. And he's just like,
Speaker 3: you know, I remember talking to my friends five years
Speaker 3: or so ago, some of the especially someone my friends
Speaker 3: who don't watch baseball as much, and they asked, like,
Speaker 3: who's the best play. You know, is Mike Trout the
Speaker 3: best player of all time? And five years ago the
Speaker 3: answer was, I think he might be.
Speaker 2: Like what I used to say to people is Mike
Speaker 2: Trout is the best person at playing baseball who has
Speaker 2: ever lived? And that was like, you know, a half
Speaker 2: decade ago also, but just in this sense of like
Speaker 2: we always kind of like people get better at stuff
Speaker 2: over time, Like I always find it ridiculous, like, oh,
Speaker 2: it would be better, you know, babe Ruth whatever, Like no,
Speaker 2: like if you drop Mike Trout back in the nineteen hundreds,
Speaker 2: he's hitting two thousand home runs right, Like, it's you know,
Speaker 2: we get better over time, we get smarter over time,
Speaker 2: we know understand our bodies and the sport better, like
Speaker 2: like Mike Trout prior to Otani, I would have told
Speaker 2: anybody was the best person at playing baseball. Shy of
Speaker 2: Barry Bonds when he's on steroids, who's ever lived?
Speaker 3: So alleged?
Speaker 1: Yes, I you know, let's wet. We don't need to
Speaker 1: kid ourselves.
Speaker 3: Next tune in next week for the Barry Bonds.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I would love an off season Barry Bonds
Speaker 2: just deep dive. Any entire episode could be us just
Speaker 2: reading the most hilarious stats like because there are you know,
Speaker 2: at least an hour's worth of them. Let's go to
Speaker 2: our next topic here, and speaking of outfielders on the
Speaker 2: Angels who have burnt us before, Joe Adele has been
Speaker 2: really hot, Lily, to let everyone know what the topic is,
Speaker 2: we're gonna sort of ask new and improved or fool's gold,
Speaker 2: and we're gona do one hitter and one pitcher.
Speaker 1: Of the hitter that mayor wanted.
Speaker 2: To talk about is Joe Adele, who has been on
Speaker 2: fire lately, has been really good this season. Four home runs,
Speaker 2: five stolen bases. He's also giving you a bit of
Speaker 2: power speed. He's batting to ninety his ops is over
Speaker 2: nine hundred. This is somebody who was both in real
Speaker 2: life and in fantasy considered an elite elite prospect primarily
Speaker 2: based on that athleticism. He was drafted with the tenth
Speaker 2: overall pick in twenty seventeen, and he's been near the
Speaker 2: tops of prospect rankings ever since then.
Speaker 1: He has never really been able to do it at
Speaker 1: the big league level.
Speaker 2: Though he has ranged from disappointing to more often than
Speaker 2: not downright bad at the big league level despite being
Speaker 2: too good for the miners.
Speaker 1: So what say you?
Speaker 2: Is he new and improved this year and you know,
Speaker 2: relatively young still he's only like twenty five or is
Speaker 2: it fools?
Speaker 1: Gold?
Speaker 3: First of what a segue about you, but just a
Speaker 3: classic tying two topics together, well done?
Speaker 1: Why they pay me the bucks?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have a hard time with this one just
Speaker 3: because of what you said. We've been burned so many times.
Speaker 3: But he does look really good. And it's interesting to
Speaker 3: talk about someone who has a twenty six point five
Speaker 3: k rate twenty two point five percent k rate as
Speaker 3: someone who's drastically cut down on their strikeouts. But he
Speaker 3: has drastically cut down on his strike at last year
Speaker 3: was over forty exactly, and earlier in his career when
Speaker 3: he first came up with over.
Speaker 1: He said, multiple seasons over forty percent strikeout.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, and his and his you know, those were
Speaker 3: both kind of like smaller sample sizes, and then his
Speaker 3: biggest sample size in twenty twenty two was just under
Speaker 3: forty percent. So that's kind of been his biggest issue
Speaker 3: when he gets to this level is just cutting down
Speaker 3: the strikeouts. So so far he is cutting down on
Speaker 3: the strikeouts. The town of twenty six and a half.
Speaker 3: He's got the four home runs, five sole bases, so
Speaker 3: he's hit, he's hitting and running. He's cut down on
Speaker 3: his swinging strike percentage. That's a career well right now.
Speaker 3: So that's a good sign for him. And you know,
Speaker 3: it's it's kind of like in that in between range
Speaker 3: where it's hard not to look at the data and
Speaker 3: get excited. But then you also have to remember, this
Speaker 3: is jo Adell, who has burned us four times before,
Speaker 3: at least four times just counting years if you count
Speaker 3: multiple call ups, probably more than four times, spending on
Speaker 3: how many times you picked them up.
Speaker 2: I with his let me just quickly say, with his athleticism, like,
Speaker 2: we don't need the strikeout rate to be elite. We
Speaker 2: just need it to not be an outlier so bad.
Speaker 2: So even though it's still bad, you're talking about again,
Speaker 2: an uber athletic, twenty five year old, former top prospect.
Speaker 2: If everything else is looking really good, then as long
Speaker 2: as a strikeout rate is merely one of the league's
Speaker 2: worst and not one of the worst ever, then that's
Speaker 2: a huge improvement.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's an interesting thing in his data that I
Speaker 3: was intrigued by, but also like I don't want to
Speaker 3: say confused by, but it's something that I always kind
Speaker 3: of question, and it's that if you go on a
Speaker 3: site like fangraphs and you look at his hard hit data,
Speaker 3: that that those hard hit numbers are from Baseball Info
Speaker 3: solutions and they don't can they don't calculate hard hit
Speaker 3: data the same way that Baseball Savant does. So if
Speaker 3: you look at a fan grass and you look at
Speaker 3: his hard his hard hit rate, it looks like it's up.
Speaker 3: And you look like throughout his careers between like the
Speaker 3: thirty one point nine percent twenty twenty two, it was
Speaker 3: a blow twenty five percent. Now it's at thirty five
Speaker 3: point six percent. Looks really good, like a like a
Speaker 3: good increase. If you look at Baseball Savant, it's a
Speaker 3: drastically different story. His hard hit data for the last
Speaker 3: four years was between like thirty one and thirty nine,
Speaker 3: and this year it's a fifty three. So it's a
Speaker 3: much bigger jump. And so that's kind of like a
Speaker 3: difference in classification. But that's where you really see the
Speaker 3: jump and hard hit data, at least in terms of
Speaker 3: how they calculate it.
Speaker 2: It's a great point and I tend to default to
Speaker 2: Baseball Savant, not based on any one factor or the other.
Speaker 2: I'm just on the site more often there, But that
Speaker 2: is a good point to keep in mind. I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm I'm on a stackcast page right now. It's it's
Speaker 2: interesting to consider, Like if you look at his career
Speaker 2: prior to this season, every single like stat you're listed
Speaker 2: on is either nothing like he's average, or it's blue,
Speaker 2: which is one of the worst in the league.
Speaker 1: This year, it's a lot of red.
Speaker 2: Like the expected data is really expected batting average, expecting,
Speaker 2: slugging expected whoaba, those are all like top three percent
Speaker 2: in the league. Obviously, the hard hit rate is really
Speaker 2: really high there too, Like we just mentioned, the only
Speaker 2: thing that was ever high before was the max exit velocity,
Speaker 2: which kind of makes sense. And you guy, you know
Speaker 2: he's very strong. Obviously, we know we can hit the
Speaker 2: ball hard. It just doesn't do it enough. Everything else
Speaker 2: was always like very very poor, both like not just
Speaker 2: in terms of the results, but the actual battball data too.
Speaker 2: And now, I mean we were talking before the show.
Speaker 2: It's it's all dark red on that page outside of
Speaker 2: the the you know, K rate stuff. So I mean
Speaker 2: I don't know if you actually gave an official answer.
Speaker 2: If you had to pick one to the other, are
Speaker 2: you saying fools gold or new and improved. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: say new and improved. But I also don't have him
Speaker 2: on any teams because I've been so burned by him
Speaker 2: in the past that I wasn't like rushing to pick
Speaker 2: him up when he started this hot streak.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a small sample size, but you know,
Speaker 3: we are talking twenty four games, We're getting close to
Speaker 3: a month, so it's a bigger sample size. I feel
Speaker 3: like I can't give a different advanswer, like one way
Speaker 3: or another. I'd almost have to put it like on
Speaker 3: a scale of like one to ten, with like you know,
Speaker 3: ten being new and improved and one being fools gold.
Speaker 3: I would have to put it at like like I
Speaker 3: can't even answer, I don't know, like a five right
Speaker 3: in the middle.
Speaker 1: This was your topic.
Speaker 3: I was hoping to have a definitive answer. It's really impressive.
Speaker 3: I would I'm like right in the middle of like
Speaker 3: I'm you know, because like if you asked me two
Speaker 3: weeks ago, I would have just had one hundred percent
Speaker 3: fools gold, Like I'm out not interested. But but the
Speaker 3: longer this goes on, the more I'm going from from
Speaker 3: three to four to five, And now I'm I'm on
Speaker 3: the fence and intrigued and like wanting to lean in
Speaker 3: the new and improved direction.
Speaker 2: Let's go to our picture here, Eric Fetti, And you know,
Speaker 2: this is something that's really been driven by the last
Speaker 2: few starts, right Like, if you look at as season
Speaker 2: long numbers, they are very good. It's a two sixty eer,
Speaker 2: thirty four and two thirds innings, thirty nine strikeouts, one
Speaker 2: oh seven whip that's across six starts, so it looks
Speaker 2: good for the year, but it looks superb recently. To
Speaker 2: start the year, it was, you know, two runs and
Speaker 2: four and two thirds innings, one run in five innings,
Speaker 2: four runs in five innings. But then that's the first
Speaker 2: three starts. The last three zero runs in five and
Speaker 2: two thirds, one run in six innings, two runs.
Speaker 1: In eight and a third.
Speaker 2: He's getting better each time out and those three starts
Speaker 2: have five eleven and nine strikeouts respectively, just three walks
Speaker 2: across those three starts, all of which came in the
Speaker 2: same start. So he's been he's been truly excellent in
Speaker 2: the last three weeks. That's come against the Royals who
Speaker 2: have been really good this season, the Twins who are
Speaker 2: on a hot streak, and the Rays who are a
Speaker 2: good team. Not not that those are the three juggernaut offenses,
Speaker 2: but those are three quality teams to varying degrees. So
Speaker 2: he's been he's been excellent lately, good throughout the course
Speaker 2: of the year. Is he fools gold or new and improved?
Speaker 3: So with Eric Fetti, I he's again. I would have
Speaker 3: immediately like dismissed him as fools Gold just because of
Speaker 3: the track record of not being very good. But I'm
Speaker 3: extremely intrigued by what he's doing. And you know, he
Speaker 3: went over to Korea for a year, and as he's
Speaker 3: not the first pitcher we've seen go over to Korea
Speaker 3: and just kind of reinvent themselves and just kind of reset,
Speaker 3: rethink everything, get some different advice over there, attack hitters
Speaker 3: a different way. And he's a completely different picture now.
Speaker 3: And that's what's most intriguing about Eric Betty. He he
Speaker 3: used to be like a sinker curveball, a little bit
Speaker 3: of a cutter pitcher who would sprinkle in the occasional changeup.
Speaker 3: He's completely overhauled his arsenal. He still throws the sinker,
Speaker 3: he throws a sweeper now, and now he throws a splitter,
Speaker 3: and so he's just completely revamped his whole approach, which is,
Speaker 3: you know, really intriguing. His sinker two years ago had
Speaker 3: a you know, three oh seven batting average against. Now
Speaker 3: it's around two oh eight. But the sweeper is doing
Speaker 3: really well, and the splitter has a one to fifty
Speaker 3: four batting average against. So he's just reimagine. And you know,
Speaker 3: you know how much I love a pitch mix. I'm
Speaker 3: just a pitch mixed fiend, and so whenever someone overhauls
Speaker 3: their pitch mix, I'm all about it. And so, but
Speaker 3: that's what's really interesting about it. He's still he used
Speaker 3: to throw a cutter, and he still throws a cutter
Speaker 3: about the same amount, but he's cut down in a
Speaker 3: sinker a little bit. He's ditched a curveball for a sweeper,
Speaker 3: and now he's like he's basically ditched the change up
Speaker 3: for a splitter that he throws a lot more than
Speaker 3: he ever threw his change up, and he's got really
Speaker 3: good results. And I'm intrigued.
Speaker 2: Are you intrigued or are you spending real fab dollars
Speaker 2: to pick him up because he's still available in places
Speaker 2: from people who I think are hesitant to dive right in.
Speaker 2: And again, it's really only the last three starts that
Speaker 2: are carrying the bulk of this, So it's not like, oh,
Speaker 2: we've seen the entire first month of the season he's
Speaker 2: been dominant. It's been Hey, these are three amazing starts
Speaker 2: in a row. A lot of pitchers have the ability
Speaker 2: to have three good starts in a row.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm spending fab on him to pick him
Speaker 3: up just because pitching has kind of been all over
Speaker 3: the place. He's done some good things. His numbers in
Speaker 3: Korea last year were really good, like Cyon type numbers.
Speaker 3: He had one hundred eighty innings, two hundred and nine strikeouts,
Speaker 3: and an ERA of exactly two, with some expected numbers
Speaker 3: that were just slightly above two. Right now, his ERA
Speaker 3: is two point six and his expected numbers are higher.
Speaker 3: His fIF is four. The other numbers are around three
Speaker 3: point two, so there's some aggression coming, but that's still
Speaker 3: really good, especially if you're getting more than a strikeout.
Speaker 3: Painting from Eric Fetty. I'm spending some fabot him I'm
Speaker 3: just in adding him in my leagues.
Speaker 2: By the way, this is nothing to do with Eric Fetty.
Speaker 2: I'm just looking up Dar. I just want to say
Speaker 2: because I'm very excited about it as an Oils fan.
Speaker 2: We were going to move on for the topic anyway.
Speaker 2: Kyle Bradish is making his debut today. I thought, if
Speaker 2: you asked me in March, is Kyle Brash gonna pick
Speaker 2: pitch this season? I would have bet all of my
Speaker 2: money that he doesn't like these just types of elbow
Speaker 2: injuries for pictures, like, they just don't have happy endings typically.
Speaker 2: And in the first inning of this afternoon game against
Speaker 2: the Yankees, which is going on right now, he had
Speaker 2: increased velocity on his pitches and even more spin on
Speaker 2: his slider than he had last year. So new and
Speaker 2: improved Kyle Bradish just.
Speaker 3: Well, if there's something that always ends well, it's elbows.
Speaker 3: So we've never seen that go poorly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just let me have this while he's having a
Speaker 2: decent outing and maybe he'll have a terrible adding and
Speaker 2: the game is still early, but all right, let's go
Speaker 2: to the next Let's go to the next topic here,
Speaker 2: more pitching talk. We took one breakout one bounce back
Speaker 2: and one player who's been a disappointment, and we're going
Speaker 2: to try and rank these three rest of season. Those
Speaker 2: players are the breakout is Nicolodola, the bounce back is
Speaker 2: Jack Flaherty, and the injured slash bad is Blake Snell,
Speaker 2: who obviously signed very late in the process. So it
Speaker 2: was kind of an odd offseason, but coming off of
Speaker 2: a superb twenty twenty three. So how do you want
Speaker 2: to approach this? Do you want to give me your
Speaker 2: rankings and then see if I agree? Do you want
Speaker 2: to kind of talk it out first and then settle
Speaker 2: on a rankings, Because I think there are three interesting guys,
Speaker 2: I have a sense of how I would rank them,
Speaker 2: and I'm curious what you would say.
Speaker 3: I think we can talk about it first, because what
Speaker 3: what led me to kind of think about all three
Speaker 3: of these pictures was when I was doing my rankings
Speaker 3: and I kind of like had all three and I
Speaker 3: was like moving pictures up and up and down on
Speaker 3: the expert platform on fantasports dot Com and just kind
Speaker 3: of seeing how I wanted to move things, and I
Speaker 3: had them all kind of close, and that's what led
Speaker 3: me to believe it was like, these are three really
Speaker 3: interesting pictures that I'm probably gonna have in the same
Speaker 3: range for drastically different reasons. And so yeah, the nick
Speaker 3: Lodolo is the is the breakout. He's you know, a
Speaker 3: former top prospect, first round pick in twenty nineteen, you know,
Speaker 3: a top ten pick in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: He was a first picture off the board that year.
Speaker 3: Oh look at you Whatnotledge?
Speaker 2: Well, that was the year the Oils had the number
Speaker 2: one pick, So I spent a lot of time focusing
Speaker 2: on that, and it was like there were sick elite
Speaker 2: bats at the top of the draft. And it hasn't
Speaker 2: really panned out that way. You know, it's really just
Speaker 2: Badly and Wit have been the only two elite guys.
Speaker 2: But I remember being like any of the six, like
Speaker 2: people are trying to justify or whatever. I mean, it
Speaker 2: was always gonna be Adly or Wit, but Lodola was
Speaker 2: the first one that wasn't a batter.
Speaker 1: So that's etched into my memory.
Speaker 3: Well there you go. I would have never guessed that.
Speaker 3: So he's a former kind of like top ten prospect,
Speaker 3: first pitcher of the board, as you said, and he
Speaker 3: went through the minor leagues at a pretty decent pace.
Speaker 3: He's still only twenty six years old. This is going
Speaker 3: to be his third season in the majors, even though
Speaker 3: last year he only made seven starts. We saw the
Speaker 3: potential in twenty twenty two when he had a three
Speaker 3: point six six ERA, one hundred and thirty one strikeouts
Speaker 3: and one hundred and three innings, and so that's whenever
Speaker 3: won last year was saying this is the Nickelodollo year,
Speaker 3: this is going to be the Nickelodola breakout. And of
Speaker 3: course we only got seven starts out of him, but
Speaker 3: now only four starts, but we've got twenty four innings,
Speaker 3: thirty one strikeouts, only six walks in a one point
Speaker 3: eight eighty ARRA and and he's looking really really good.
Speaker 3: He just struck out eleven batters. That's why he's really
Speaker 3: kind of jumping in rankings. He just struck out eleven
Speaker 3: batters ever seven things in his last start, and that
Speaker 3: from his first start ten strikeouts, but only ten strikeouts
Speaker 3: combined and the two starts in between. But you know,
Speaker 3: you're just seeing the stuff there, and that's why everyone's
Speaker 3: excited about this breakout. Jack Flaherty looks really good, looks
Speaker 3: like he's kind of back. You know, he's kind of
Speaker 3: the veteran who has dealt with his own injuries, some
Speaker 3: shoulder stuff. He's kind of just not been the same
Speaker 3: guy for really three of the last four years. And
Speaker 3: if you look at, you know, kind of his like career,
Speaker 3: you thought, if you just like asked me about like
Speaker 3: Jack Flaherty, like off the top of my head, I
Speaker 3: would have guessed, you have like three or four like
Speaker 3: great years as like kind of like an ace and
Speaker 3: then has I kind of fallen on hard times. But
Speaker 3: he's throughout his career have been all over the place
Speaker 3: a little bit. The shortened COVID year he wasn't great.
Speaker 3: Twenty nineteen he was really good despite the despite the
Speaker 3: juice balls, two hundred and thirty one strikeouts that year,
Speaker 3: twenty two, twenty twenty three, and ERA between four and five,
Speaker 3: four point two five and then four point nine nine,
Speaker 3: and he's just kind of like not ever been that
Speaker 3: ace again. But and right now his ERA is still four,
Speaker 3: but he has fifty strikeouts of our thirty six innings,
Speaker 3: and all of his expected numbers are much lower than four.
Speaker 3: And so you're really seeing kind of what he can
Speaker 3: be if he really is bouncing back, and if he
Speaker 3: can stay healthy, especially if he can continue all the
Speaker 3: revenge starts against the Cardinals, that would be perfect rest
Speaker 3: of season. If he could just have like thirty more
Speaker 3: starts against the Cardinals, that would be great. And then
Speaker 3: Blake Snell is just Blake Snell. He's he's hurt. He
Speaker 3: just came came off that incredible year, but before that
Speaker 3: was you know, really good, slash great, but also you
Speaker 3: could always see like he should be better than he was,
Speaker 3: and now he's not. You know, he started this season late.
Speaker 3: When we did see him, he wasn't very good, and
Speaker 3: now he's hurt, and you kind of have to rank
Speaker 3: him in a certain way just because you know what
Speaker 3: he did last season. But it's also like these are
Speaker 3: three kind of pictures going in different directions that are
Speaker 3: all going to be around the same center point of rankings,
Speaker 3: and it's it's you know, interesting comparisons. I talked too
Speaker 3: way too long, right there. You should have got.
Speaker 1: It's all right. One interesting note on flarity.
Speaker 2: Alex fast Pictureless, who's you know, Front of the Show,
Speaker 2: tweeted out he has the you know the CSW percentage
Speaker 2: the called strikes with with percentage for pictures, which is
Speaker 2: a stat that I quite enjoy following and kind of
Speaker 2: seeing who's ranking this leaderboards. April's CSW leader was Jack
Speaker 2: Flaherty thirty seven point seven percent. Next highest was Toreik
Speaker 2: Scooball at thirty three point seven percent, so a sizeable gap.
Speaker 1: In fact, excuse me, the gap between.
Speaker 2: Flarity at one and Scooball at two is bigger than
Speaker 2: the gap between Scooball at two and Corbyn Burns at ten.
Speaker 2: So Flarerty had an excellent month of April. Now that
Speaker 2: is I'm assuming largely helped by his most recent you know,
Speaker 2: his final start in April when he struck out fourteen
Speaker 2: guys in six and two thirds innings. Obviously that goes
Speaker 2: a long way. Bufflarity has been has been very good.
Speaker 2: I actually picked him up early in a league and
Speaker 2: then I ended up dropping him after his you know,
Speaker 2: kind of bad I was like, oh, you know, I'll
Speaker 2: take a chance, and then oh, I didn't do so well,
Speaker 2: you know against the athletics, and then it was like,
Speaker 2: didn't do that, you know that That was like, I
Speaker 2: don't know the schedule coming up, so I dropped him.
Speaker 2: And of course now he's really good again, so that
Speaker 2: panned out well. I will tell you for me, in
Speaker 2: terms of ranking these guys philosophically, even if you take
Speaker 2: the names away and just described these pictures, I am
Speaker 2: always leaning towards the breakout over the bounce back or
Speaker 2: the guy who's disappointed. Just philosophically with pitching especially, that's
Speaker 2: where I'm drawn. I also really like what we've seen
Speaker 2: out of Lodolo specifically, so he would be my number
Speaker 2: one guy of these three, not buy a wide margin,
Speaker 2: but by a clear margin, like he is definitively the
Speaker 2: one I would go with. It's tougher for me because
Speaker 2: I've been burned by Flarity multiple times in the past,
Speaker 2: both with injuries and underperforming. You know, He's not on
Speaker 2: the same level as like Joe Adell in terms of
Speaker 2: getting burned by but like, like I don't I don't
Speaker 2: need alo from getting burned by flarherity, but like I
Speaker 2: do maybe want to not go out in the sun
Speaker 2: for a couple of days. But having said that, like
Speaker 2: if a guy's been really bad and is hurt and
Speaker 2: is the oldest picture on this list, I'm probably always
Speaker 2: gonna rank that person last. So I don't know if
Speaker 2: that's kind of the chalky answer or not, I'm curious
Speaker 2: how you have it. And again, Snell was like amazing
Speaker 2: last year, so I'm not like entirely writing him off.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't like go dropping him off your roster or anything,
Speaker 2: but I'm probably gonna go Lodolo, then Flaherty, then Snell.
Speaker 2: Would you disagree or go with the same order.
Speaker 3: That's what I have, That's what I have them. I
Speaker 3: debated putting Flarerty ahead of Lodolo, mostly because when I'm
Speaker 3: thinking about ranking something about rest of the season rankings,
Speaker 3: and within his next two starts, Nicolodola will have thrown
Speaker 3: more innings and he threw last year, And so that's
Speaker 3: when I started to get nervous about how much value
Speaker 3: we're going to get the rest of the season, especially
Speaker 3: if you're in someone who's in a head to head league,
Speaker 3: because depending on what they do here, you're not going
Speaker 3: to have him in you're in your head to head playoffs,
Speaker 3: which is something they consider.
Speaker 2: You know that that's a great point, And to be
Speaker 2: perfectly honest, I've just been thinking about evaluating the pictures.
Speaker 2: I didn't really think about it from that perspective. I
Speaker 2: think that's a really valid point and to kind of
Speaker 2: take a step back and maybe you know, if you're
Speaker 2: in you know, not like some kind of keeper format
Speaker 2: where you want him long term, maybe it's a reason
Speaker 2: to consider selling on Lodolo.
Speaker 3: Yep. That's uh, that's kind of what I was getting at.
Speaker 3: That's kind of where I'm at. And you know, I
Speaker 3: hate being kind of like that negative person who always
Speaker 3: thinks about that about young pictures, But whenever a young
Speaker 3: pictures breaking out, my first thing to do is to
Speaker 3: go to his page and see him an innings he
Speaker 3: through the year before and see what when when I
Speaker 3: should get out?
Speaker 1: It's it's probably smart.
Speaker 2: Right, Let's go to our last topic here, interrounding the bases.
Speaker 2: This was an article that you sent me, you know,
Speaker 2: from the Athletic last week about kind of reconsidering the title.
Speaker 2: The article is reconsidering the picture win criteria, and it
Speaker 2: essentially talks about like technically, like what goes into a
Speaker 2: picture being eligible for the win, how wins have changed
Speaker 2: over the years, and particularly how picture usage has changed
Speaker 2: over the years, and you know, people don't go as
Speaker 2: long anymore. Should the rule only be four innings instead
Speaker 2: of five? So I have a pretty strong opinion about
Speaker 2: this that I held prior to you sharing this article.
Speaker 2: But this, you know, I thought was a good impetus
Speaker 2: to have a fun discussion about it. And I want
Speaker 2: to actually have room on this show for other rules
Speaker 2: changes ideas in the future, because I got a few
Speaker 2: of them. But before I share kind of the stance
Speaker 2: I've always held, I'm curious, A what you thought of
Speaker 2: the article, and B you know what your stance is
Speaker 2: on pitture win rule.
Speaker 3: So my not not to give a whole old man
Speaker 3: yells at cloud stance. But whenever I think about a
Speaker 3: rule change like this, I think about how it's going
Speaker 3: to change history and how it's going to change records,
Speaker 3: and I just hate if there's like a drastic rule change,
Speaker 3: we have to be like, oh, this is the most
Speaker 3: wins in a season before twenty twenty four, or like
Speaker 3: you know, kind of a thing when they change the
Speaker 3: wind roll down to two innings. And so that's that's
Speaker 3: where I'm really hesitating. Like I'm on board with shortening
Speaker 3: the season, but not by a lot, like maybe we
Speaker 3: drop it down to like one hundred and fifty games,
Speaker 3: one hundred and forty five games, I'm leading off the
Speaker 3: other day, Joe was talking about dropping the season down
Speaker 3: to one hundred one games, and I was like, you're
Speaker 3: out of your mind. That's it's too few.
Speaker 2: Yeah, four is what it used to be. Like, I
Speaker 2: understand that argument. What one oh one is absurd.
Speaker 3: It's absurd, and it would just be like a new
Speaker 3: sport and like all the records would just be thrown
Speaker 3: out the window. It would just be like, oh, the
Speaker 3: most home runs since we cut the season by a third.
Speaker 3: So that's depending on how you changed the win criteria.
Speaker 3: I would have some thoughts about, like making it drastically different,
Speaker 3: because I I hate changing records and having to think
Speaker 3: about historical records that way. I do think there's some
Speaker 3: just because the game has changed so much, there's some interesting,
Speaker 3: you know, things to discuss, especially because like they didn't
Speaker 3: even when they start first started counting like wins stuff.
Speaker 3: They didn't even really have bullpens. Like you just had
Speaker 3: your day to pitch and you just went out and
Speaker 3: I was your day, and either one or you lost.
Speaker 3: And it's just not that way anymore. And now there's
Speaker 3: you know, the cheapy teams doing the opener, the opener
Speaker 3: and then the bulk reliever. And that's kind of you know,
Speaker 3: throwing wins into a whole new kind of category. There's
Speaker 3: the whole fantasy movement towards quality starts instead of instead
Speaker 3: of wins, and so it's a way.
Speaker 2: I've seen people say that the definition of a quality
Speaker 2: start maybe should change, like, like there should be it
Speaker 2: shouldn't just be six innings, three runs. It should be
Speaker 2: a threshold of runs based on the number. So if
Speaker 2: you go five innings, then a quality start is allowing
Speaker 2: two runs. You go seven innings, a quality start is
Speaker 2: allowing four runs. Those are just examples thrown out. I
Speaker 2: think you could quipal with the exact numbers, but I'd
Speaker 2: be more inclined with that than I would like just
Speaker 2: saying blanket quality start.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I've seen people saying shortened the quality start
Speaker 3: because people don't pitch that long anymore. Yeah, what are
Speaker 3: you so?
Speaker 2: First of all, I firmly agree on the history. I'm
Speaker 2: in the exact same boat. I don't think it's biased
Speaker 2: because baseball was a sport I kind of fell in
Speaker 2: love with as a kid, and I loved reading about
Speaker 2: all the old stats and like, like, I think it's
Speaker 2: genuinely different in baseball than other sports in terms of
Speaker 2: how the numbers connect us to the past.
Speaker 1: You know, excuse me, I.
Speaker 2: Don't think about like like when Tom Brady said his
Speaker 2: records with quarterback, I didn't know what the number of
Speaker 2: all time passing yards was that he then broke, you know.
Speaker 1: I I And same with basketball.
Speaker 2: I Like I knew that Lebron was probably near the
Speaker 2: scoring record, and I knew that it was Kareem Abdul
Speaker 2: Jabbar that had the record. I didn't know the thirty
Speaker 2: eight thousand whatever whatever. In baseball, like you know not
Speaker 2: only what Hank Aaron's number was, but you also knew
Speaker 2: Babe Ruth's number. You also knew Willie Mays's number. Like
Speaker 2: growing up, it was like you didn't just notice like
Speaker 2: these guys in order were like really revered. Those numbers
Speaker 2: were revered as much as the players were. You know,
Speaker 2: a single season records are the same. But it so
Speaker 2: I'm with you in the way that that stats and
Speaker 2: records connect baseball to its past, I think is different
Speaker 2: than any other sport, and I think that has to
Speaker 2: be a consideration with any decision you make now. Having
Speaker 2: said that, if they changed the win rule. I still
Speaker 2: don't think anybody's touching cy Young right, Like it's it's
Speaker 2: not like we're about to rewrite their record books if
Speaker 2: they were to change the win rule now, something like
Speaker 2: changing the like the season is a different story. But uh,
Speaker 2: I'm on board with changing something like this. Here's what
Speaker 2: I would say, and it's what I've I've actually said
Speaker 2: for years and have never had a platform that people
Speaker 2: will listen to me, you know.
Speaker 1: Make this case is I think wins should exist for pitchers.
Speaker 2: They are the most important players in the field on
Speaker 2: that given day. But I think it should be a
Speaker 2: scorekeeper's decision. We allow official scorekeepers to make tons of
Speaker 2: judgment calls. Is this a hit? Is this an error?
Speaker 2: Why are we not allowing them to make what is
Speaker 2: like ninety five times out of one hundred, It's very
Speaker 2: obvious which pitcher contributed the most to the win. So
Speaker 2: for me, it's less about you need to go a
Speaker 2: certain number of innings, like four innings versus five innings.
Speaker 2: That's not really that compelling of an argument to me.
Speaker 2: To me, it's the pitcher who goes six and two
Speaker 2: thirds and his team just doesn't score and he gets
Speaker 2: he comes out of the game, some reliever comes on
Speaker 2: to get that last out of the sixth, and then
Speaker 2: his team finally scores in the seventh, lever gets the
Speaker 2: win and not the starting pitcher. Why are we not
Speaker 2: allowing the official scorekeeper to say clearly the winning pitcher
Speaker 2: in this effort was the guy who went six and
Speaker 2: two thirds, not the reliever who threw eight pitches. Those
Speaker 2: are the scenarios where I don't understand the argument against
Speaker 2: allowing us to just assign a win rather than having
Speaker 2: because of this defined rule and who happened to be
Speaker 2: on the mound when the offense that has nothing.
Speaker 1: To do with you.
Speaker 2: By the way, like the pitchers are not hitting anymore,
Speaker 2: why are we relying on them to determine when when
Speaker 2: you get the win? So for me, that would be
Speaker 2: the more intriguing option would be to say, hey, and
Speaker 2: you know what, if the starter gets shelled after three
Speaker 2: and every reliever goes one inning after that, and the
Speaker 2: team just happens to score fifteen runs so they win,
Speaker 2: you can say there's no win today, Like I don't
Speaker 2: see why the total wins on a pitching staff at
Speaker 2: the end of the year needs to add up to
Speaker 2: this same number of wins as a seasons. Maybe the
Speaker 2: guy didn't earn it, And I think that we should
Speaker 2: give scorekeepers of luay to make those decisions. I've always
Speaker 2: felt very strongly about that. I have no illusions that
Speaker 2: this will ever happen, but that has been my stance
Speaker 2: for a while. Now I'm the one who's talking too long,
Speaker 2: and I'm curious your opinion.
Speaker 3: I agree with that. While you were talking, I was thinking,
Speaker 3: what if we just gave no one a win and
Speaker 3: we just be mean about it and give But I
Speaker 3: think before we fix wins, we gotta fix holds, because
Speaker 3: man do I have some thoughts about how ghoest holts are.
Speaker 3: That can be for another day, but uh yeah, I
Speaker 3: could I could see that. What about what about wins
Speaker 3: fewer than five innings? What if someone goes like, for
Speaker 3: shout out of things, it doesn't go anymore, would you
Speaker 3: give him the win?
Speaker 2: I think if you're talking under four, I wouldn't consider it.
Speaker 2: I think if you go like four and two thirds
Speaker 2: and they're good innings and no other picture goes more
Speaker 2: than an inning and you and you went like, it's
Speaker 2: it's hard for me to say you did.
Speaker 1: A great job. If you didn't go five innings.
Speaker 2: But I also I'm like trying to not let the
Speaker 2: fact that that's just what it's been my whole life
Speaker 2: have any bias in that thought, because like it's hard,
Speaker 2: it's hard to turn off the part of my brain
Speaker 2: that is always known you need to go five to
Speaker 2: get a win. So that one I'm more open to.
Speaker 2: If you want to say it has to stay five, Like,
Speaker 2: I'm open to that idea. To me, it's having been
Speaker 2: the last picture on the mound when your team happens
Speaker 2: to finally score. That's the one that I take real
Speaker 2: significant issue with. If you want to say you need
Speaker 2: to go at least four, and then that's fine, if
Speaker 2: you were clearly kind of the best picture, I'm open
Speaker 2: to that.
Speaker 1: I'm also open to saying there's still a.
Speaker 2: Minimal threshold of five, but I feel less strongly about
Speaker 2: that one.
Speaker 1: I want to I want to have more.
Speaker 2: Of these rules conversations throughout the year, maybe is if
Speaker 2: we are struggling to come up with a topic, or
Speaker 2: maybe in the off season, because I have other ideas,
Speaker 2: including my all time favorite rules change idea that will
Speaker 2: never ever happen. But I have been telling people for
Speaker 2: like six years, and I think it's genius and I'll save.
Speaker 1: That for a future episode.
Speaker 3: So I have a good story about Box. I'm looking
Speaker 3: forward to telling Boxing.
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm excited for that. So, by the way, that's
Speaker 2: like a good hopefully incentive for everybody to make sure
Speaker 2: they're subscribed to the show. And if you like this content,
Speaker 2: the best freeway to show your support and encourage more
Speaker 2: content like this, like those fun conversations is to leave
Speaker 2: a positive review at fantasypros dot com slash MLB review.
Speaker 2: If you ask a question in your review, or if
Speaker 2: you just want to leave a comment about what you
Speaker 2: think the wins rule should be mayor and I will
Speaker 2: be sure to answer it in the following week's episode.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our waivers for the week.
Speaker 2: Who is your favorite waivers hitter?
Speaker 3: So I realized as I was going through I kind
Speaker 3: of won some boring names this week, but it was
Speaker 3: also kind of a weird week, and I didn't want
Speaker 3: to just take too many chalky answers that are probably
Speaker 3: rostered in too many leagues, and so I went with
Speaker 3: an intriguing name when Seal Perez and it's because he's
Speaker 3: still on the younger side. He's not like one of
Speaker 3: the former first round picks, but he's kind of he's
Speaker 3: worked his way through the miners and he's with the
Speaker 3: Tigers now and he's just continuing to earn playing time,
Speaker 3: and not only earn playing time, but earn his way
Speaker 3: into the middle of the order. So as someone who
Speaker 3: wasn't playing every day, and then when he was playing
Speaker 3: mostly playing, you know, he was kind of like sprinkled
Speaker 3: all over the order, bat at eighth, seventh, sixth, but
Speaker 3: he's in it a couple of times ninth, but that
Speaker 3: was a pinch hit appearance. But now he's consistently batting
Speaker 3: third in the lineup for the Tigers, and that is
Speaker 3: where things get interesting, because you want someone hitting in
Speaker 3: the center of the lineup, even if it's the Tigers.
Speaker 3: And so his minor league numbers are not gonna blow
Speaker 3: you away. He's not a huge power guy. He's a
Speaker 3: decent speed guy. He can steal twenty bases if he
Speaker 3: plays every day. He's always had a solid walk, right,
Speaker 3: He's always he's someone who gets on base, not a
Speaker 3: terrible strikeout, right, So he's a guy who gets on bass,
Speaker 3: makes makes good contact, he's not going to win you
Speaker 3: your league. At home runs, he's probably not gonna win
Speaker 3: you your league, and still in bases, but he's.
Speaker 1: Pretty much like you're really making the same here.
Speaker 3: Well, it depends on your league, and you know, he's
Speaker 3: not going to be someone you're targeting in one of
Speaker 3: those really shallow ESPN leagues, but in twelve twelve team
Speaker 3: in higher leagues, if you kind of need someone who's
Speaker 3: doing wrong right now, because I have a really good
Speaker 3: team in the league where all of my studs are
Speaker 3: just terrible right now, Like I have a really good
Speaker 3: roster and they're like Austin Riley, George Springer, Xander Boguards,
Speaker 3: they're just all struggling right now. And so if you
Speaker 3: especially like in a five outfielder league, if you need
Speaker 3: someone who's going to do probably solid for a few weeks,
Speaker 3: he's free right now and you can just, you know,
Speaker 3: especially in the fifteen team league, pick him up immediately.
Speaker 3: Twelve team leagues with like five outfielders, he's someone you
Speaker 3: could plug into your lineup and see if you can
Speaker 3: get some production for a few weeks and maybe, you know,
Speaker 3: maybe he sticks around and takes that next step and
Speaker 3: you can get a handful of home runs and twenty
Speaker 3: stele bases in a good batting average and also a
Speaker 3: good on base percentage if you're among those.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I forget if you give the exact number,
Speaker 2: but only five percent rostered in YAHOO. So, like you said,
Speaker 2: he's very available, eligible at both second base and outfield,
Speaker 2: which is nice, just giving a little bit of flexibility.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not going to sit here and pretend
Speaker 2: that I have a really strong opinion on went Sield Perez.
Speaker 1: It's hard to yes.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's only had fifty two career played appearances,
Speaker 2: so it's there's not a ton of track record to
Speaker 2: work from. But I think that's a good case, and
Speaker 2: particularly in deep leagues, I think he's, you know, somebody
Speaker 2: you know, willing to willing to be looked at in.
Speaker 1: A league like that. I'm now pulling up my pick
Speaker 1: because I want to say yeah.
Speaker 2: So, so I went with Sumy Jerkson Profar, who is
Speaker 2: rostered in fifty two percent of leagues in YAHOO, forty
Speaker 2: percent of leagues in ESPN. So less of a deep
Speaker 2: cut player obviously former number one overall prospect in baseball,
Speaker 2: but more of somebody who I think is just a
Speaker 2: little under owned. He has been really good this year. Actually,
Speaker 2: you know, his strikeout rate is just fifteen point four percent,
Speaker 2: that's down from last year. His walk rate is the
Speaker 2: highest of his career. You know, his hard hit rate
Speaker 2: is up over forty percent. It was at thirty one
Speaker 2: last year, so it's it's the highest of his career.
Speaker 2: His expected batting average is three h four, that's you know,
Speaker 2: ninety third percent tile in baseball baseball. His ex wOBA
Speaker 2: is eighty fourth percentile.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: Obviously he's in the outfield now, not an infield guy anymore.
Speaker 2: He's already thirty one, like he's big in the league forever.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: Obviously he's got four home runs on the season, again,
Speaker 2: batting three forty two. I think he's somebody who will
Speaker 2: help you in batting average this season. I don't think
Speaker 2: that's a you know, a fluke.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: Again, his expected batting average is over three hundred, so
Speaker 2: it's not quite a size three forty two.
Speaker 1: But he's hitting the ball well.
Speaker 2: And you know, I'm not expecting a huge home run
Speaker 2: total or a huge stole in base total. But I
Speaker 2: think he's a quality player in a quality lineup who
Speaker 2: is going to get opportunities. And again, it's less that
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be a league winner, but
Speaker 2: more like he's only barely over fifty percent rostered. I
Speaker 2: think that should be hired to sixty to seventy percent.
Speaker 2: I think there are leagues out there where he's not rostered,
Speaker 2: where he would be an improvement for someone. What do
Speaker 2: you think about profar.
Speaker 3: So you think a guy who's a career two forty
Speaker 3: two hitter has been in the league for ten years
Speaker 3: is going to bat three hundred this year.
Speaker 2: I didn't say I think it's going about three hundred.
Speaker 2: I said, I think it can help you in batting average.
Speaker 2: You don't need a bat three hundred to help people
Speaker 2: in batting average. I just think that the data is encouraging.
Speaker 2: I mean again, like he's his hard hit rate is up,
Speaker 2: he's he's hitting the ball better, his exit velocity is higher,
Speaker 2: he is you know, sweet spot rate is higher.
Speaker 1: It's they're not like.
Speaker 2: We're talking about waivers pick ups, right, Like, there's not
Speaker 2: gonna be a guy out there who's like one hundred
Speaker 2: percent hile across the board unless Ryan Orharan is available
Speaker 2: in your league. Like you're just not going to have
Speaker 2: those options out there, so you know you have to
Speaker 2: take to go with the bad. But I think he
Speaker 2: looks like a better hitter this year, and it's enough. Again,
Speaker 2: I'm not saying you should be one hundred percent rostered,
Speaker 2: but I'm picking him up if I need outfield help.
Speaker 2: And I play in a lot of five outfielder leagues,
Speaker 2: and in most of those leagues, I'm guessing one of
Speaker 2: my outfielders is at least on the same level as Profar,
Speaker 2: if not worse like where Profar would be an improvement.
Speaker 2: I am not saying he's going to bat three hundred
Speaker 2: this season, but I think I think he's batting everyone
Speaker 2: better than it's been in the past.
Speaker 3: I have an on record that you said he's gonna
Speaker 3: beat three hundred this year, and I'm going to play
Speaker 3: it back when you're done.
Speaker 1: Now he has a hier picking him up, well.
Speaker 3: I mean not if when Seal Perez is out there. Now,
Speaker 3: I think he has a he has a higher ceiling
Speaker 3: than someone like Wen Seal Perez. Obviously he's more rostered.
Speaker 3: He's another guy talking about you know this, the the
Speaker 3: theme of the episode being guys who have burned us
Speaker 3: in the past. I think jerks and Profar has burned
Speaker 3: everyone who's played fantasy baseball at once in their career,
Speaker 3: because he's been doing this for ten years, and he
Speaker 3: had a couple of years were, you know, way back
Speaker 3: in twenty eighteen, we hit twenty home runs. He batted
Speaker 3: two fifty four, and you're like, oh, this is you know,
Speaker 3: this could be the beginning of the breakout. And then
Speaker 3: he kind of hit two twenty home runs again next year,
Speaker 3: but he bet at two eighteen and then he's just
Speaker 3: kind of been all over the place since then. And Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's it's intriguing that the batball data looks so good
Speaker 3: even just looking at like the recent production. You look
Speaker 3: at like all his games one for four, two for
Speaker 3: four or two five, one for four, one for three,
Speaker 3: two for five, one for four, three four, four four,
Speaker 3: I feel I almost feel like I'm confidence saying he's
Speaker 3: never done that in his career before, having that many
Speaker 3: hits in that many games. Yeah, so it's intriguing. I
Speaker 3: think he's going to come back down to earth a
Speaker 3: little bit, you know, just the law of large large
Speaker 3: numbers are not in his favor in terms of who
Speaker 3: he's been in his career. But I'll be interested to
Speaker 3: see if you know if they're if he's I haven't
Speaker 3: looked into him enough to know if he's made any
Speaker 3: real tangible changes to justify these improvements. But it's intriguing.
Speaker 2: Most numbers on a statcast page are either a career
Speaker 2: high or second best in his career. Like it's it's
Speaker 2: not just like one or two areas where he seems
Speaker 2: to have improved, it's it's largely across the board.
Speaker 1: In terms of the balltball data.
Speaker 2: And again, like very legitimate pedigree, was the number one
Speaker 2: overall prospect in baseball at won't point. Now that was
Speaker 2: over ten years ago, and he's older. You know, all
Speaker 2: that caveats you know are are worthy.
Speaker 3: Who did the Orioles draft that year?
Speaker 1: In the I he wasn't drafted, right, wasn't he an international?
Speaker 1: There you go, I assume.
Speaker 3: He was the same question. Who did the Oriols draft?
Speaker 2: He made his debut in twenty twelve, and that year
Speaker 2: the Oiols drafted Kevin Gossman fourth overall.
Speaker 1: I will tell you that, but uh, I've lost my
Speaker 1: train of thought thanks to having to think about the
Speaker 1: Oriols draftics. Anyways, the goal that was Anyways.
Speaker 2: Again, I'm not saying he's a superstar, but like, if
Speaker 2: these changes are real, I think you could be looking
Speaker 2: at like a two seventy maybe two eighty batting average
Speaker 2: if things go right, and twenty home runs again, if
Speaker 2: things go right. I think there's a spot for that
Speaker 2: in a lot of leagues, especially leagues with more than
Speaker 2: three outfielders.
Speaker 1: That's my point.
Speaker 3: I'm willing to make a bet with you right now
Speaker 3: that he doesn't hit two seventy this year. I don't
Speaker 3: really want to, but I don't know what's the bet.
Speaker 1: I want to make that bet.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying to blow your fab on him right now.
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm couching this with like a bunch
Speaker 2: of I'm not saying this. I'm not saying that.
Speaker 3: I get you're taking a lot of heat from a
Speaker 3: guy who just recommended Wenzield Forrest.
Speaker 2: It's a great point, it's great. I'm too much of
Speaker 2: a coward to take that bet. But I think I
Speaker 2: think it's I think it's, uh, let me, I'll phrase
Speaker 2: it like this. I think it's there's the percentage that
Speaker 2: that happens, that he beats two seventy five and has
Speaker 2: twenty plus home runs. Is high enough above zero percent
Speaker 2: that I think he's worth a pickup, is the way
Speaker 2: I would phrase it.
Speaker 1: Let's go to our favorite pitchers here? Who is yours?
Speaker 3: So we don't have to spend a lot of time
Speaker 3: on mind because we've already talked about him, and it's
Speaker 3: Eric Fetty. And the reason is because while I was
Speaker 3: researching him, I realized just how low his roster percentage was,
Speaker 3: and if I have to double check right now, I
Speaker 3: think it was around is less than fifty percent. He's
Speaker 3: available in almost sixty percent of Yahoo leagues, and I
Speaker 3: just think the early numbers are too good to leave
Speaker 3: him out there, especially in leagues A lot of leagues
Speaker 3: you need pitching and you need pitching volume. He already
Speaker 3: went in a bunch of my leagues. I was a
Speaker 3: little too late in a few of my leagues, a
Speaker 3: little too late to the breakout. But we already talked
Speaker 3: about it earlier in the show. If you need a reminder,
Speaker 3: rewind at the beginning of the show, we talked about
Speaker 3: Eric Fetty. A wee can skip a head to years now.
Speaker 2: I am going with a reliever and I want to
Speaker 2: let everybody know that the plan next week, and we
Speaker 2: need to see a schedule works out, is to do
Speaker 2: kind of a deep dive closer report where we kind
Speaker 2: of say, hey, we're over a month into the season,
Speaker 2: let's look at all the bullpens and kind of see
Speaker 2: where closers are trending. It's a difficult position to deal
Speaker 2: with in fantasy, so we'll kind of do the.
Speaker 1: Legwork for you and hopefully you know we're able to
Speaker 1: do that.
Speaker 2: Next week, we're going to kind of do a deeper
Speaker 2: dive there. I'm gonna pick a closer. I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: with James MacArthur of the Royals, who's been awesome this year.
Speaker 2: Outside of his first three outings, which were March thirtieth,
Speaker 2: April first, April third, we're now essentially a full month
Speaker 2: past the last time that he allowed a run. Since then,
Speaker 2: it's literally been zero earned runs every start he's got
Speaker 2: at least in ending every start. Those have largely been
Speaker 2: save opportunities, and he has done really well in those.
Speaker 2: In most of those addings he has one or two strikeouts.
Speaker 2: You know, a couple of walks here and there, a
Speaker 2: couple of hits here and there, but he's been a
Speaker 2: good closer for the Royals. He's only twenty seven years old.
Speaker 2: The Royals have been a good team, but they're not
Speaker 2: the type of dominant team that I expect to win
Speaker 2: a lot of games by more than three runs, which
Speaker 2: means I think this could be a perfect scenario of
Speaker 2: winning lots of games but winning them close enough that
Speaker 2: the closer gets a lot of work. He has fifteen
Speaker 2: strikeouts in thirteen to two thirds innings, seven saves already
Speaker 2: this season, one point one seven whip. I don't think
Speaker 2: he's going to be like a Tier one, elite level closer.
Speaker 2: I think he's going to get a lot of saves though,
Speaker 2: and I think he's he's not going to kill you
Speaker 2: on the ratios in doing so, and I don't see
Speaker 2: a lot of I know it's a good bullpen in
Speaker 2: Kansas City, but I think he's going to continue to
Speaker 2: solidify himself just as the guy you know at the
Speaker 2: back end of that bullpen. So his his you know,
Speaker 2: roster percentage sixty six percent of Yahoo that's gone up
Speaker 2: recently and twenty two percent ESPN. Finding saves is so
Speaker 2: hard that if they're worth anything in your league, like
Speaker 2: if you're in a rowal.
Speaker 1: Whatever I think he should be.
Speaker 2: I think he should be one hundred percent rostered in
Speaker 2: leagues where saves a irrelevant because I just think he
Speaker 2: is the Royals closer, and I think he's going to
Speaker 2: be an upper half of baseball closer, if not like
Speaker 2: a top eight guy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the only problem is that he might not be
Speaker 3: the best picture in that bullpen. John Shriver might be.
Speaker 3: I am at socks great.
Speaker 2: I think he's been good enough that he's gonna need
Speaker 2: to be bad for a little while to lose the spot.
Speaker 2: But again, he hasn't given up an earned a round
Speaker 2: in a month and he's been basically locking down every
Speaker 2: save in that timeframe, So I I don't I guess
Speaker 2: I don't know what the Royals would plan to do,
Speaker 2: but you know, long term, but I don't see them
Speaker 2: as a team that's looking like it got like an
Speaker 2: itchy trigger finger and looking to take him out and
Speaker 2: bring on somebody else just for the sake of Oh
Speaker 2: his ratios are slightly better, Like, I think MacArthur's been
Speaker 2: good enough and will continue to be good enough.
Speaker 1: That he will have that role.
Speaker 2: And closers are volatile, so maybe he's not you end
Speaker 2: up dropping him later in the season if it turns
Speaker 2: out that he's not actually that good. But right now,
Speaker 2: if you look like a clear closer for a decent team,
Speaker 2: I'm I think I think he needs to be rostered
Speaker 2: again everywhere where slaves are relevant.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's almost kind of interesting that he came away
Speaker 3: with the job just based on what they did in
Speaker 3: the offseason. They kind of brought in some competition for
Speaker 3: that role, and he just has taken it in so
Speaker 3: far as to him really well.
Speaker 2: He was not on my radar as a likely closer
Speaker 2: before the season, but the first month was good enough
Speaker 2: that now I'm picking him up in a lot of places.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to Builo's cell high and then
Speaker 2: we'll wrap up the show.
Speaker 1: Who is your favorite buy Low?
Speaker 3: So it's another boring one. It's going to be, you know,
Speaker 3: just a boring name. But he's another one who's available everywhere,
Speaker 3: and I think he's better than his early numbers. Show
Speaker 3: And it's Lars new Bar. I was gonna keep talking,
Speaker 3: but I realized I should probably say his name at
Speaker 3: some point. But it's Lars new Bar. He's someone I
Speaker 3: accidentally drafted in an auction league for one dollar. I
Speaker 3: nominated him for a dollar, hoping he would go and
Speaker 3: I ended up with him on my roster. I still
Speaker 3: roster him, and he's someone, like I said, he's he's
Speaker 3: available everywhere, and if you need outfielders, you can probably
Speaker 3: either buy extremely low on him or get him for free.
Speaker 3: Because his early numbers are not good. He's only got
Speaker 3: one home run, he's batting one eighty five, he's only
Speaker 3: got two stolen bases, and it's through eighteen games. But
Speaker 3: I really think he's better than this, and I think
Speaker 3: this is more He began the season on the injured list,
Speaker 3: and I think this is really someone who's just off
Speaker 3: to a slow start because of the beginning of the
Speaker 3: year on the injured list. I wrote him up on
Speaker 3: this week's Featured Pros on Fantasy Pros Are BI Low
Speaker 3: So High. Title is ten players to trade Now, and
Speaker 3: I wrote basically what I'm saying now, trying to remember
Speaker 3: from memory. But it's really just that I think he's
Speaker 3: a lot better than this. His expected numbers that we
Speaker 3: always like to talk about on the show are all
Speaker 3: much better than this. I don't think he's going to
Speaker 3: go twenty twenty but I think he's going to give you.
Speaker 3: I think he's a good hitter who also gets on
Speaker 3: base a lot. He's going to hit. You know, despite
Speaker 3: these struggles, he's still hitting third and batting in the
Speaker 3: middle of that lineup. It's a lineup that's really struggling,
Speaker 3: so no one's really pushing him out of that spot
Speaker 3: right now. And I do think the Cardinals as a
Speaker 3: whole are going to be better, and I do think
Speaker 3: he's going to be better. And I think he's someone
Speaker 3: who's gonna hit fifteen home runs and probably steal ten
Speaker 3: to fifteen bases with a solid average. And he's free
Speaker 3: right now. Whereas you know, normally, if you have to
Speaker 3: draft that production, you have to spend a late round
Speaker 3: pick on it, or if you know you're getting that
Speaker 3: kind of production, especially for someone that hitting in the
Speaker 3: middle the lineup, you're gonna have to spend a little
Speaker 3: bit in a trade. But right now he's free, and
Speaker 3: that's why you know, I'll probably get a lot of
Speaker 3: heat if I drop him in my league in two weeks,
Speaker 3: but if it doesn't start to turn it around, I
Speaker 3: need the roster spot. But right now, if you can
Speaker 3: kind of wait it out, I think he's gonna be
Speaker 3: a lot better than than what he is right now.
Speaker 2: My favorite bi Loo is because I had to talk
Speaker 2: about an oriel Grayson Rodriguez, who just went on IL,
Speaker 2: which I'm actually counting as a good thing because it
Speaker 2: means he's probably more affordable now than he's ever been.
Speaker 2: And the rumors around Baltimore are that it's there is
Speaker 2: some right shoulder inflammation and they want to be cautious
Speaker 2: and they'd rather be safe than sorry. They want him
Speaker 2: in October, not in May. But also that you know
Speaker 2: they're bringing back in John means they're bringing back in
Speaker 2: Kyle Bradish that I already mentioned. There's an opportunity here
Speaker 2: to maybe get him a little rest as he is
Speaker 2: a young pitcher who's still building up his innings workload,
Speaker 2: and make.
Speaker 1: Sure he's ready for October.
Speaker 2: So as of now, and that is subject to change,
Speaker 2: because we were talking about a starting pitcher. As of now,
Speaker 2: I am not concerned about the IL stint that he
Speaker 2: just went on, and again, if anything, it makes it
Speaker 2: more affordable. You and I were actually chatting just was
Speaker 2: yesterday or earlier this week about Grayson Rodriguez, and you
Speaker 2: know the numbers if you just look at them as
Speaker 2: they are, are not gonna value thirty seven strikeouts in
Speaker 2: thirty four innings, a one forty one whip, a three
Speaker 2: seven one ERA. This is not the guy that we were,
Speaker 2: you know, where he was going in drafts, that we
Speaker 2: were hoping to get. Having said that, he had one
Speaker 2: terrible start against the Angels and the Orioles bullpen has
Speaker 2: been very overworked early on. So when it was clear
Speaker 2: Grayson didn't have it in that start in LA, they
Speaker 2: kind of just let him wear it as long as
Speaker 2: they could, and so his numbers were really bad.
Speaker 1: In that outing. He gave up seven earned runs in
Speaker 1: under five innings. He gave up like eleven hits.
Speaker 2: I think it was it was a very poor outer
Speaker 2: his stats in the games not including that, and I
Speaker 2: know that in fantasy you don't get to just throw
Speaker 2: out the worst stat, but that it was an outlier.
Speaker 2: Compared to the rest of the season, He's been actually
Speaker 2: remarkably consistent this season. In the other five starts, he's
Speaker 2: four to zero with a two to twelve ERA, a
Speaker 2: one to twenty one whip, and thirty strikeouts in twenty
Speaker 2: nine to two thirds innings. So as I said to you,
Speaker 2: you'd like a few more strikeouts and maybe fewer walks
Speaker 2: to get that whip down a little. But you're giving
Speaker 2: me an era and the low twos on a team
Speaker 2: that's gonna win a ton of games and at least
Speaker 2: a strikeout an inning. I'm taking that, and I'm very
Speaker 2: happy to do so. So this is as we talk
Speaker 2: about a lot kind of relative to price, right, I'm
Speaker 2: not saying go buy Grayson at any price if you
Speaker 2: can get them low, especially because of this injury and
Speaker 2: because that start against the Angels was recent. I am
Speaker 2: very happy to buy a guy that I think, more
Speaker 2: often than not is going to give you six ish innings,
Speaker 2: six to eight strikeouts, one to two earned runs, and
Speaker 2: a pretty good chance a to win. And that's basically
Speaker 2: what he was for like sixteen straight starts dating back
Speaker 2: to last season prior to that blow up against the Angels.
Speaker 1: So I think he's a really good value, even if.
Speaker 2: He hasn't quite taken the leap into true ace level
Speaker 2: that we were hoping for. Do you think that's a
Speaker 2: fair case or am I being a homer?
Speaker 3: I mean that was such an impassioned case. I don't
Speaker 3: think I could realistically argue back, I think you've already
Speaker 3: made your case. No, I think he's a good young arm.
Speaker 3: If you can buy low, you should.
Speaker 1: Right, Let's go to our cell highs here. Who's your favorite?
Speaker 3: So my cell high is really just an evergreen cell
Speaker 3: high for me. But he's just continuing to outperform his numbers,
Speaker 3: and just Jose Brios, I forget if we talked about
Speaker 3: him earlier on the show earlier in the season. We
Speaker 3: probably did, because I always feel like I'm selling high
Speaker 3: in Jose Brio's I was trying to He's another person
Speaker 3: I wrote up for that Bilo cell High article on
Speaker 3: the site this week, and I and I had the
Speaker 3: same question when I was writing it. I was like, they,
Speaker 3: did I already write about this guy like a month ago?
Speaker 3: I probably did, but if not, I couldn't remember if
Speaker 3: I did. He's just continuing to down perform all of
Speaker 3: his numbers, and I just don't think he's as good
Speaker 3: and all of the numbers agree with me his he's
Speaker 3: got a one point four for era right now, and
Speaker 3: his gap from his era it was expected. The RAE
Speaker 3: one point four to four too, was expected. The array
Speaker 3: of almost five is the biggest gap in baseball among
Speaker 3: qualifying pitchers, and also what an enormous gap. And he's
Speaker 3: he's got some interesting numbers, but he's like k percentages down,
Speaker 3: his swinger strike percentages down. He's getting more ground balls,
Speaker 3: which is helping him a lot. His hard hit percentage
Speaker 3: is up, and like they're not just up, but there
Speaker 3: are some of them. Some of those are like either
Speaker 3: career lows or career highs in the wrong direction. And
Speaker 3: yet he still has a one point four four ERA
Speaker 3: despite all of that, despite only striking out thirty one
Speaker 3: batters in forty three and two thirds innings. And strikeouts
Speaker 3: are not everything. You know, we get a little carried
Speaker 3: away because of strikeouts, some fantasy, but the another reason
Speaker 3: that people like strikeouts is it limits your bad luck.
Speaker 3: And at some point, if you're not striking out bad as,
Speaker 3: you're gonna start getting some more bad luck. And all
Speaker 3: of his expected numbers say that more bad luck is coming.
Speaker 3: He's got, like I said, a sub to sub one
Speaker 3: point five r A and all of his expected numbers
Speaker 3: are over four. That's just gotta that can't continue. It's
Speaker 3: gonna meet in the middle soon. And it's not just
Speaker 3: gonna jump to four point eight eight, it's gonna jump
Speaker 3: to the twos and threes, which is still fine. But
Speaker 3: between the name value because people know the Jose Brios
Speaker 3: name and they look at the early numbers, it's just
Speaker 3: prime to sell high right now. And I have a
Speaker 3: question for you, which is a question when we write
Speaker 3: the art, when we write these blurbs for the article,
Speaker 3: we're supposed to always try to pitch who we think
Speaker 3: or who we'd like to target in a trade. And
Speaker 3: I had a trade proposal lot that was gonna ask
Speaker 3: you about would you trade Jose Brios for Corby and
Speaker 3: Carroll right now?
Speaker 2: I'm giving away Burrios getting Corbyn Carroll in like maybe
Speaker 2: a third of a second, I would say yes.
Speaker 3: Well, I only asked that because of because people are
Speaker 3: panicking about corn Mac Carroll. But and how bad he's been.
Speaker 2: I get why there might be panic with Carol. Obviously
Speaker 2: he's been. It's a rough start to the season. I've
Speaker 2: I mean talking about getting burned by guys. I've been
Speaker 2: burned by Barrios enough in the past. Like you said,
Speaker 2: kind of the expected data is not good. I I'm
Speaker 2: not gonna let one month change what was Where was
Speaker 2: Burrios going in drafts this year?
Speaker 1: No idea, Like I don't know off the top.
Speaker 2: Of my head, but like I'm guessing several dozen, you know,
Speaker 2: spots different in ADP. I'm not letting a month change that.
Speaker 2: For a guy with Carol's upside, I'd much rather have Carol.
Speaker 3: That's fair. I'm seeing a lot of panic trade discussions.
Speaker 2: And interesting maybe other people will disagree. I'd be curious
Speaker 2: to hear what the listeners think when they hear that question.
Speaker 2: For me, it's a no brainer.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we kind of get carried away into thinking, you know,
Speaker 3: especially like I'm in a lot of industry leagues and
Speaker 3: in a lot of leagues, but like really sharp fantasy managers.
Speaker 3: But there are a lot of people who are brand
Speaker 3: new to fantasy baseball and still kind of in these
Speaker 3: more casual leagues and still learning their way. And there's
Speaker 3: a lot of discussions out there of just panic selling
Speaker 3: and stuff like this, and they just look at the
Speaker 3: immediate numbers and they want to do just a quick trade.
Speaker 3: So I'm seeing offers like that go around in the discord.
Speaker 1: My cell high is Jacob Young.
Speaker 2: I think he's somebody you can sell high because A
Speaker 2: he's been you know, hot lately, and b the steals
Speaker 2: are really good. You know, he's got twelve stolen bases
Speaker 2: already this season. You know, his his batting average has
Speaker 2: gone up a lot in the last week, week and
Speaker 2: a half because he was on fire, you know, in
Speaker 2: that series against the Marlins.
Speaker 1: Two hits, two hits, three hits, one hit.
Speaker 2: You know, it's just it was just a really strong,
Speaker 2: you know, week or so, and he was stealing like
Speaker 2: multiple bases of game. It felt like in that series
Speaker 2: he is giving you nothing else, though, and I don't
Speaker 2: think he will give you anything else the rest of
Speaker 2: the sear He has zero home runs.
Speaker 1: He's not even close to a home run.
Speaker 2: If you look at his like spray chart on STA cast,
Speaker 2: his like farthest ball he's hit this year is a
Speaker 2: sharp line drive that like halfway to right field, Like
Speaker 2: there is just no power here. Uh and I and again,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't expect any to really develop. His exit velocity
Speaker 2: average EXI velosity's bottom three percent in the league. His
Speaker 2: launch angle is one point six degrees. It's just not
Speaker 2: good fast guy. He's gonna play a lot because of
Speaker 2: the defense. And again he will get you steal. So
Speaker 2: if you were like completely desperate for steals, I can
Speaker 2: understand not moving, but I think because of those steals,
Speaker 2: because of the hot streaks, so the average is now
Speaker 2: over three hundred. I think he's movable and I would
Speaker 2: move him in a heartbeat. Do you have any strong
Speaker 2: opinions on Jacob Young?
Speaker 3: H No, I would gladly trade Jacob Young. I had
Speaker 3: a similar take on Bryce Terrang very early in the season.
Speaker 3: So far has proven me wrong and that the number
Speaker 3: still was still.
Speaker 2: In fact, I didn't pick I didn't pick up Terrang
Speaker 2: in a league where I could use some speed, specifically
Speaker 2: because of our conversation on this show, and that is
Speaker 2: burning me so far.
Speaker 3: For the record, I would still sell high on Bryce Terraing. Yeah,
Speaker 3: without question, so similar reasons. It's kind of like an
Speaker 3: Estuary Ree situation with Jacob Young unless I really need
Speaker 3: those steals. If someone comes looking for twelve steals, they
Speaker 3: can have them, no problem.
Speaker 2: Okay, weekend excitement. What are we looking forward to this weekend?
Speaker 2: I'll go first. I really want to see if Max
Speaker 2: Freed is like truly kind of back to the Max
Speaker 2: Freed we knew in love before the season. Obviously, we
Speaker 2: talked last week about how his great outings had really
Speaker 2: come against the Marlins. He was good this week, not
Speaker 2: against the Marlins, so that was encouraging. He is now
Speaker 2: facing the Dodgers on Sunday, so clearly a step up.
Speaker 2: And I think we'll probably tell us a lot about
Speaker 2: if the first few starts of the season were really
Speaker 2: just kind of a fluke slow start, or if the
Speaker 2: strong outings against the Marlins are the flukes.
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see how he does on Sunday.
Speaker 2: And the other thing I had written down is just
Speaker 2: Friday Night has some awesome starting pitcher matchups, or at
Speaker 2: the very least fascinating ones where I'm really interested to
Speaker 2: see how they turn out. And the ones I wrote
Speaker 2: down are Jordan Hicks versus Aaron Nola.
Speaker 1: Hicks.
Speaker 2: I guess had some some tightness in his side, but
Speaker 2: the way I from what I've seen and maybe I've
Speaker 2: missed it, they haven't been talking about it like he's
Speaker 2: gonna miss a start or anything. He's been good this
Speaker 2: year obviously in San Francisco. George Kirby versus Renelle Blanco,
Speaker 2: two guys who we have talked about a lot on
Speaker 2: this show who have been good in their own respective ways,
Speaker 2: particularly lately with Kirby, so I'm really excited for that one.
Speaker 1: And then Dylan sees ver Zach Gallen. Just a couple
Speaker 1: of guys that.
Speaker 2: Are you know, either aces or on the periphery of
Speaker 2: ases and you know from from where they were for
Speaker 2: the season or where they've been in the past. So
Speaker 2: those are just three really intriguing matchups and they're all
Speaker 2: Friday night, so I'm really excited to watch those.
Speaker 1: What are you excited for this weekend?
Speaker 3: I'm really interested to see Gavin Stone against the Braves
Speaker 3: on Friday, and it's for a number of reasons. One,
Speaker 3: I kind of can't figure out Gavin Stone and what
Speaker 3: he's gonna you know how I feel about it. And
Speaker 3: it feels like this could be a really pivotalbal pivotal,
Speaker 3: not pivotal.
Speaker 1: I wasn't gonna say it, but it's just pivotal.
Speaker 3: It's okay, you could have said something, a really pivotal
Speaker 3: start for him, because it just kind of feels like
Speaker 3: he's in this weird, weird zone and we have Walker
Speaker 3: Bmueller coming back. They're kind of, you know, potentially getting
Speaker 3: some pictures healthy and is he going to stick in
Speaker 3: the rotation long term, well, long term he probably will,
Speaker 3: as long as he doesn't completely employe. But like in
Speaker 3: the long term, in the sense of the season, is
Speaker 3: he going to stick in the rotation? And it almost
Speaker 3: feels like if he gets lit up by the Braves,
Speaker 3: we could be training in the wrong direction. And if
Speaker 3: on the flip side, if he really shuts down the
Speaker 3: Braves lineup, he could further cement his kind of spot
Speaker 3: in this in this rotation. And so I have him
Speaker 3: in a keeper league, So I'm not going to drop
Speaker 3: him in a keeper league, but it just feels like
Speaker 3: an interesting start and I want to see how he
Speaker 3: performed because I like Gavin Stone. I want to see
Speaker 3: him do well, and I you know, I do think
Speaker 3: highly of him as a as a pitcher and as
Speaker 3: a prospect. But it's an intriguing matchup, and of course
Speaker 3: against Charlie Morton, my guy. And then of course I
Speaker 3: want to see the best picture in baseball Ranger Suarez
Speaker 3: go up against Keaton Win some one we talked about
Speaker 3: last week, and I think that was pretty much it.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of I do want to see Cooper
Speaker 3: Criswell for the Red Sox, kind of an intriguing name,
Speaker 3: has been pitching really well for them as they pieced
Speaker 3: together their rotation. He's kind of getting onto the fantasy landscape,
Speaker 3: you know, someone you should start to pay attention to,
Speaker 3: especially what they're doing with that rotation. And that's it.
Speaker 3: Other than Trace Schouoball and Ester Cortes, a couple of lefties.
Speaker 3: Nester Cortez has been looking a lot better recently. I'm
Speaker 3: still not a huge believer in him, but maybe you are.
Speaker 2: I don't know that I am, but we'll see. Let's
Speaker 2: let's go to our to start picture competition. I wanted
Speaker 2: to get your opinion on the last week's matchup because
Speaker 2: I joked about it the week before. I genuinely think
Speaker 2: this one is tougher and it's you can make the
Speaker 2: case either way. You had Pablo Lopez. He went one
Speaker 2: to oh nine innings, pitched eight hits, seven earned runs,
Speaker 2: three home runs, allowed, three walks. He did have fourteen strikeouts.
Speaker 2: Grayson Rodriguez, who we counted his Monday start again because.
Speaker 1: He got pushed back. It was actually his better start against.
Speaker 2: Came against the Yankees than that disaster against the Angels,
Speaker 2: one in one, ten innings pitched sixteen hits, allowed, seven
Speaker 2: earned runs, no home runs, allowed, four walks, ten strikeouts.
Speaker 2: I would give a slight lean toward Lopez that you know,
Speaker 2: I'm being honest here that I would give it slightly
Speaker 2: towards your guy. But I think it's an intriguing discussion
Speaker 2: because they were basically both not very good.
Speaker 3: Basically both not very good. Your guy went one more inning,
Speaker 3: but he has a loss. He allowed twice as many hits,
Speaker 3: the same amount of earned runs, zero home runs against three.
Speaker 3: He walked one more batter, and he struck out four
Speaker 3: fewer batters.
Speaker 2: So the interesting thing with the hits is that, again
Speaker 2: that kind of came in that Angels outing where he
Speaker 2: was kind of forced to wear it. And this is
Speaker 2: maybe philosophically something we need to decide when evaluating this competition.
Speaker 2: But do we want to give more credence to one
Speaker 2: good start and one bad start versus two mediocre starts?
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Like I said, I would tend to lean slightly towards
Speaker 2: Pablo Lopez this week, but something to think about for
Speaker 2: the future. So is that does that sound fair to you?
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it's your guy. I'm assuming you'll say
Speaker 2: it is.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems fair to me. It's also you know,
Speaker 3: we're using like your league settings. I still don't know
Speaker 3: what these.
Speaker 1: We're not using.
Speaker 2: I didn't even say the fantasy points this time because
Speaker 2: I knew you would bring that up, so I did.
Speaker 2: We're not using the settings. That's just a catch all.
Speaker 2: Like he's like, for example, in this a lot. Well
Speaker 2: that's the thing, is like the fact that Grayson got
Speaker 2: a loss in his bad start and Lopez didn't like
Speaker 2: significant you know, drastically changes that. So I again, that's
Speaker 2: just sort of a catch all number. We're not using
Speaker 2: that as the determining factor. I will give the win
Speaker 2: to Pablo Lopez this week. We're still waiting to see
Speaker 2: how Joe Ryan and ready for al to you this week,
Speaker 2: you know, like this current week that we're in for
Speaker 2: next week, I am going and I did not like
Speaker 2: a lot of the options here, so I am going
Speaker 2: with Emerson Hancock and he you know, it burned me
Speaker 2: in the past because I didnt actually end up getting
Speaker 2: the start against the athletics, but I and also they've
Speaker 2: been hot lately. But I'm trying to go with my
Speaker 2: strategy of if I'm not sure who I want take
Speaker 2: a two start pitcher who's one of his starts against
Speaker 2: the Athletics.
Speaker 1: It's also against the Twins, who've been playing well lately.
Speaker 2: But I'm counting on that to come back to Earth
Speaker 2: a bit and you know, to some talent there. He
Speaker 2: hasn't been great this year, But I didn't love my option,
Speaker 2: so kind of taking a swing and trying to pick
Speaker 2: somebody that might have a surprisingly nice week.
Speaker 1: Who do you got?
Speaker 3: That is an interesting choice by you. I will agree
Speaker 3: with you there not one I would have made. But
Speaker 3: then again, every sing Hancock might not be here in
Speaker 3: a month, so you might not have the option to
Speaker 3: ever pick him again.
Speaker 2: So I'm going with It's not a selection I made,
Speaker 2: happily to be clear.
Speaker 3: Just to you know, keep up with what I did.
Speaker 3: For the rest of the show, I'm going to reuse
Speaker 3: a name we talked about earlier, and I'm going to
Speaker 3: go with Jack Flaherty, who's at the Cleveland Guardians and
Speaker 3: then verse home against the Houston Astros, who you would
Speaker 3: normally think it's a dangerous, kind of scary line of this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a good call, and I he'll
Speaker 2: probably do better than Hancock, but you know what, we're
Speaker 2: here to have fun.
Speaker 1: We'll get out of there on that. Thank you everybody
Speaker 1: for tuning in.
Speaker 2: Like I said, we're gonna try and to have a
Speaker 2: guest next week and we'll talk a little bit more
Speaker 2: about the closers next week, so be sure to stick
Speaker 2: around for that one.
Speaker 1: For Mayor, I am Ryan Warmley. We will see everybody
Speaker 1: again in a week.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
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