1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,119
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

3
00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:14,880
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and

4
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,919
Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

5
00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,280
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:24,320
Speaker 3: So let's get more in those retail sales.

7
00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 4: Mari Shre, senior equity analyst at Columbia thread Needle Investments,

8
00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,639
Speaker 4: joins us now on the headline, it looked quite good,

9
00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,080
Speaker 4: particularly when it comes to the jump and car purchases.

10
00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,560
Speaker 4: What were some of your takeaways from the report this morning.

11
00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:38,559
Speaker 5: Yes, thank you again for having me.

12
00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,000
Speaker 6: As you said, it was a solid sales report across

13
00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,640
Speaker 6: the board, even when adjusting for the later start to

14
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,880
Speaker 6: the holiday and the unfavorable weather in the first part

15
00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,280
Speaker 6: of the month, and we're really seeing the consumer show

16
00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,080
Speaker 6: up and spend across category into the holiday season as

17
00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:56,840
Speaker 6: we expected.

18
00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,280
Speaker 7: That's kind of where I want to go, Mary. What

19
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,400
Speaker 7: are you hearing from the retailers just about the holiday

20
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:02,920
Speaker 7: shopping here.

21
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,880
Speaker 6: Yes, it's interesting because I think it was a very

22
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,040
Speaker 6: strong Black Friday. There was a lot of concern as

23
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 6: we spoke about regarding the shorter holiday selling season, but

24
00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,640
Speaker 6: I think that has in fact really motivated consumers to

25
00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,600
Speaker 6: get out and spend, and if anything, I think the

26
00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:27,319
Speaker 6: retailers have been positively surprised by the performance in the

27
00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,400
Speaker 6: business post Black Friday, and we've even seen in some

28
00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,720
Speaker 6: cases them pulling back slightly on promotions.

29
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,800
Speaker 5: So I think overall the tone.

30
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:43,800
Speaker 6: From the retailers is optimistic and hopefully we continue to

31
00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,120
Speaker 6: see the strength as we as we moved through this

32
00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:47,280
Speaker 6: final period.

33
00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,080
Speaker 4: TBD on tariffs, though, so I'm wondering two things. One

34
00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,800
Speaker 4: what you've heard from retailers about how they prep for tariffs,

35
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,080
Speaker 4: and two if we get a sense if people are

36
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,600
Speaker 4: buying ahead of particularly maybe when it comes to cars,

37
00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 4: for example, or like a dishwasher or something along those lines.

38
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:05,120
Speaker 5: Those are great questions.

39
00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,160
Speaker 6: Most of the companies that I speak to have been

40
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:12,400
Speaker 6: moving production out of China for almost ten years now,

41
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,720
Speaker 6: so actually a lot of the companies are suggesting that

42
00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,240
Speaker 6: the impact from tariffs will be pretty limited. I would

43
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,360
Speaker 6: say the one real exception is consumer electronics. Listening to

44
00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:28,000
Speaker 6: best Buy talk, they still say fifty percent of their

45
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,600
Speaker 6: goods are sourced from China.

46
00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 5: So outside of consumer.

47
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 6: Electronics, I think the companies feel pretty good about their

48
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:39,079
Speaker 6: ability to manage through this situation, but of course they

49
00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 6: are also saying any tariffs that they do feel they

50
00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,920
Speaker 6: will try to pass along some of that costs to

51
00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 6: the consumer in terms of bringing in goods earlier or

52
00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,760
Speaker 6: consumers buying goods are earlier to.

53
00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:53,480
Speaker 5: Get ahead of that.

54
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,200
Speaker 6: I don't really get the sense that companies are going

55
00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:58,160
Speaker 6: to be doing that.

56
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:01,919
Speaker 5: Aggressively because there are still a lot of questions about

57
00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:03,760
Speaker 5: what the what the tariff.

58
00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,640
Speaker 6: Outcome is, So I think those impacts are more minimal

59
00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:08,600
Speaker 6: at this point.

60
00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 7: How are consumers paying for this stuff that they're buying

61
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:14,919
Speaker 7: with all these goods and services here it seems like

62
00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,640
Speaker 7: they've drawn down here reports that they've drawn down their savings.

63
00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:20,520
Speaker 1: Are they putting this stuff on credit? And is that

64
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 1: a concern?

65
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,600
Speaker 6: I think at the lower end, we're absolutely seeing that consumer,

66
00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 6: which has you know, been stretched for a couple of

67
00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,959
Speaker 6: years now rely more on credit, as you said.

68
00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 5: But at the high.

69
00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,760
Speaker 6: End, you know that consumer is in very good shape

70
00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:37,280
Speaker 6: with the wealth effect between the.

71
00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 5: Housing market the stock market. So I think that.

72
00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:45,080
Speaker 6: Consumer is you know, behaving a little differently versus at

73
00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,320
Speaker 6: the low end, where we are seeing them rely more

74
00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:48,840
Speaker 6: on credit.

75
00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 3: What are your topics right now?

76
00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 6: So I my topics are kind of a combination of

77
00:03:56,200 --> 00:04:01,440
Speaker 6: some of the quality share gainers that we've talked about

78
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:02,080
Speaker 6: on this show.

79
00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:06,559
Speaker 5: So some of the large retailers that offer.

80
00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:11,720
Speaker 6: That combination of valuing convenience that's really resonating with the

81
00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:16,040
Speaker 6: consumer right now. So I would put the Walmart, Amazon, Costco,

82
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:17,800
Speaker 6: TJX in that bucket.

83
00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,760
Speaker 5: But then on the other hand, I think there.

84
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,359
Speaker 6: Are some really interesting turnaround names, specifically in the apparel space,

85
00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,320
Speaker 6: where you don't need a lot of top line growth

86
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:31,479
Speaker 6: to generate pretty meaningful margin and free cash flow improvement.

87
00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,760
Speaker 6: So some of the names I would highlight on that

88
00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,200
Speaker 6: list would be some of the specialty retailers like Gap

89
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:41,320
Speaker 6: and Victoria's Secret, and even some global brands like PDH

90
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:42,760
Speaker 6: and Contour Brands.

91
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:44,960
Speaker 1: All right, Mari, thank you so much for joining us.

92
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,080
Speaker 7: Mari Sure, she's a senior equity analyst at Columbia thread

93
00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,280
Speaker 7: Needle Investments. I love to chat with her on these

94
00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:52,080
Speaker 7: days when we get retail sales, get a sense of

95
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:53,799
Speaker 7: how the consumer's doing out there.

96
00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,119
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us Live

97
00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:03,120
Speaker 2: weekdays at two Am Eastern on Applecardplay and Android Auto

98
00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,919
Speaker 2: with a Bloomberg business ad. You can also listen live

99
00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

100
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 2: say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

101
00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,080
Speaker 3: All right, let's get back to the markets here.

102
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,719
Speaker 4: Bank of America had an interesting note up that said, look, guys,

103
00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,320
Speaker 4: cash levels are going to the point where you might

104
00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:23,080
Speaker 4: actually want to start selling equities rather than buying them.

105
00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 4: Apparently fund managers have been reducing cash holding to a

106
00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,120
Speaker 4: record low, and they're now.

107
00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 3: Below four percent. So is that a cueue for you?

108
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,720
Speaker 4: Well, joining us now for more as James Abade, Managing

109
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,600
Speaker 4: director and Chief investment Officer of ourt Center Asset Management. James,

110
00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,880
Speaker 4: is there a cell signal within the equity market?

111
00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,240
Speaker 8: Well, I think if you look at you know, just

112
00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,880
Speaker 8: like at the tail end of the dot com bubble,

113
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,000
Speaker 8: clearly price momentum and valuations now are beginning to outpace

114
00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,159
Speaker 8: the improvement and fundamentals. I mean, just looking at the

115
00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:57,440
Speaker 8: top ten stocks, probably the biggest disconnect is in Microsoft

116
00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,600
Speaker 8: and Broadcom. I mean, clearly what we see that's similar

117
00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,000
Speaker 8: to the dot com environment, namely like a company of

118
00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,480
Speaker 8: Merxisco in nineteen ninety nine. You have returns on assets

119
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:13,280
Speaker 8: or returns on investor capital trending lower, highlighting that margins

120
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,039
Speaker 8: and our asset efficiency is rolling over despite sales growth,

121
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,480
Speaker 8: heavy cap x in the case of Microsoft acquisitions in

122
00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,599
Speaker 8: the case of Broadcom. The other MAC seven are simply overvalued,

123
00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:28,159
Speaker 8: but there's no evidence yet of fundamental deterioration to the

124
00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,400
Speaker 8: same degree that we see in those two names. But

125
00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,640
Speaker 8: there's no margin of safety for investors. I mean, the

126
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,640
Speaker 8: group as a whole is trading at thirteen times sales exactly.

127
00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,760
Speaker 7: The valuation is just extraordinary. The only differential I call

128
00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:41,800
Speaker 7: out from the late nineties is they actually have earnings

129
00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,120
Speaker 7: in free cash flow, which is a little different from.

130
00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,680
Speaker 1: Some of the stuff I was selling back in the day.

131
00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,440
Speaker 7: James, where do we go here in twenty twenty five,

132
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 7: if in fact we have some valuation concerns in this market.

133
00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,000
Speaker 8: Well, I think you know, the way we look at

134
00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,760
Speaker 8: stocks from evaluation perspectives, we emphasize future growth reliance. That

135
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,400
Speaker 8: is essentially, you know, what is the metric companies need

136
00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,080
Speaker 8: to reach to be able to justify their existing valuations.

137
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,640
Speaker 8: And for us on the overall SMP five hundred, the

138
00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,800
Speaker 8: measure now hasn't been this optimistic on future economic profit

139
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:20,000
Speaker 8: creation going forward since two thousand and nine, and close

140
00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:22,400
Speaker 8: to the all time high back in two thousand and two.

141
00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,200
Speaker 8: Now those times, we're both at the bottom of a

142
00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 8: very deeper session and set for a very sharp cyclical recovery.

143
00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,760
Speaker 8: And the S and P five hundred pe multiple back

144
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,240
Speaker 8: then was that are eleven and thirteen times respectively, not

145
00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,160
Speaker 8: twenty four times like they are now. So we have

146
00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 8: to basically essentially see a rapid acceleration in economic activity

147
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,040
Speaker 8: just simply to justify the multiples that we're seeing today,

148
00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,360
Speaker 8: and we have a hard time reconciling those figures with

149
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,480
Speaker 8: what we're seeing from bottoms up perspective.

150
00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,080
Speaker 4: So what's your best well, not guess because you're actually

151
00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,440
Speaker 4: putting money to work, Well, what's your best set up

152
00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:02,440
Speaker 4: then into next year?

153
00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 8: Well, I think when you look at next year, you know,

154
00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 8: you have to think about two events happening, right, we have,

155
00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,560
Speaker 8: you know, heading into the year, investors appear to be

156
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 8: universally bullish. In fact, we saw yesterday the Conference Boards

157
00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:22,080
Speaker 8: Consumer Confidence Survey showing individual investors being the most bullish

158
00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,320
Speaker 8: they've been in forty years, and consensus seems to be

159
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,680
Speaker 8: the nominal and economic growth is going to be exceptionally strong.

160
00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:31,320
Speaker 8: Profits going to accelerate, and additional fiscal and monetary stimus

161
00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,960
Speaker 8: might help further, you know, in a broadening out of

162
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:34,960
Speaker 8: market performance.

163
00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 9: I mean, at the.

164
00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,520
Speaker 8: Same time this is happening, while manufacturing PMIS remains stuck

165
00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:43,200
Speaker 8: in recessionary levels, services actually appear to be rolling over

166
00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 8: and even today US industrial production and capacity utilization fell

167
00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:49,360
Speaker 8: not showing any type of inflection.

168
00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:51,520
Speaker 1: So our view is to stay defensive.

169
00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,240
Speaker 8: We think long treasuries might be the ultimate contrarian trade

170
00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,160
Speaker 8: for twenty twenty five, and classic defensive growth stocks in

171
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 8: healthcare and staples, although very out of favor right now,

172
00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,120
Speaker 8: but many of you could pick up the pees of

173
00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,200
Speaker 8: nine to ten is the place to be heading into

174
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:09,680
Speaker 8: next year.

175
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,000
Speaker 7: How about the fixed income here? Do I sit my

176
00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,160
Speaker 7: two year treasury at four point twenty four percent or

177
00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:16,200
Speaker 7: do I take some credit risk?

178
00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:19,960
Speaker 8: I would stay away from credit risk clearly if you

179
00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,800
Speaker 8: think that the economy is not one where the cyclical

180
00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,200
Speaker 8: or industrial side is going to catch up to at

181
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:32,079
Speaker 8: least the buoyancy and the services, I think you want

182
00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,120
Speaker 8: to with credit spreads being at extremely tight levels. Consistent

183
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,120
Speaker 8: with really a zero equity risk premium. You want to

184
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,319
Speaker 8: be in safe assets, and that would be treasures instead

185
00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:41,720
Speaker 8: of credit.

186
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,200
Speaker 7: All right, James, thanks so much for joining us. Always

187
00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,080
Speaker 7: appreciate getting a couple of minutes of your time. James Abote.

188
00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,640
Speaker 7: He is managing director and chief investment Officer a Center

189
00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:51,079
Speaker 7: Asset Management.

190
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,240
Speaker 1: He is in New York City.

191
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:58,480
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

192
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,679
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten ams on Apple Cardplay and then broud

193
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,800
Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

194
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:09,120
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

195
00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 4: Something is evolving quite interestingly in the oil and gas

196
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 4: market for next year. Yeah. Yeah, we still care about shale,

197
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,040
Speaker 4: and we care about Guyana, and we care about the Saudia's,

198
00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,480
Speaker 4: but offshore drilling, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, is

199
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:24,640
Speaker 4: becoming more and more of a topic in conversations among

200
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,800
Speaker 4: my oil and gas folks. And let's get to one

201
00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,080
Speaker 4: of them now. Brian Gavari is chairman of Ineos Energy.

202
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,920
Speaker 4: Ineos Energy private company and it recently bought c Nook,

203
00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,959
Speaker 4: which is a Chinese oil company, a golf of Mexico

204
00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,000
Speaker 4: assets Brian is also the former CFO of BP, so

205
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:42,880
Speaker 4: he knows like a thing or two about how to

206
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,520
Speaker 4: put together assets and finance them and do stuff with them.

207
00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 3: Brian, it's good to see you. It's been a long time.

208
00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,280
Speaker 9: Hey yeah, Hey, good to see you as well. It's

209
00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:52,800
Speaker 9: been a while.

210
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,520
Speaker 4: So tell me what led to this acquisition, Why do

211
00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:56,640
Speaker 4: you like it and why now?

212
00:10:58,520 --> 00:10:58,720
Speaker 8: Yeah.

213
00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,360
Speaker 9: Look, we create in ours Energy just literally out of

214
00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,960
Speaker 9: COVID in twenty twenty one. We brought together a collection

215
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,080
Speaker 9: of all and gas assets we had, We did some

216
00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,400
Speaker 9: major portfolio transition. We took a big us on shore

217
00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:15,040
Speaker 9: position last here from Chesapeake, so that sort of built

218
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,080
Speaker 9: up a decent sized two thousand and six and a

219
00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,560
Speaker 9: well positioned an LNG export option. And then the next

220
00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:23,560
Speaker 9: obvious spot to go to was the offshore Gulf Mexico,

221
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 9: which is probably one of the highest margin barrels available globally.

222
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,480
Speaker 9: And we've been looking around now for the best part

223
00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:31,480
Speaker 9: of three years for the right deal, and this was

224
00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,360
Speaker 9: the right It's the right group, it's a great team

225
00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,680
Speaker 9: that we get with this. It's the next entem that's

226
00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:40,600
Speaker 9: seen I could acquired. So we'll get head of the

227
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,520
Speaker 9: CEO and area of the CFO as part of that

228
00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,000
Speaker 9: transaction will come across. So yeah, we're pretty happy about it.

229
00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 1: So talk to us about that part of the world.

230
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:48,680
Speaker 1: Energy in that part.

231
00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,080
Speaker 7: Of the world, the Golf of Mexico specifically, what are

232
00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:54,320
Speaker 7: it the dynamics of getting a barrel of oil out

233
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,359
Speaker 7: of the Golf of Mexico seems like a tough business.

234
00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,160
Speaker 9: Now, look, it's one of the most biations in the world.

235
00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,040
Speaker 9: I've got personal experience of it. Sort of you know,

236
00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:08,640
Speaker 9: twenty thirty years ago, the early pioneering groups of effecting

237
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:12,439
Speaker 9: back then, Chevron SHELLBP, that kind of went into that zone.

238
00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,240
Speaker 9: I think there's still a lot of legs. And I

239
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,840
Speaker 9: think the most important thing about that particular region is

240
00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:24,520
Speaker 9: we've got a very stable fiscal regime. Its successive governments

241
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:29,400
Speaker 9: have continued to support that region in particular, and the

242
00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 9: on shore And yeah, I think back to the last

243
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,839
Speaker 9: conversation alex I think was when the Biden administration was

244
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 9: coming in. It was concerned about what would happen with

245
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 9: on shore fracking in the United States. That's got to

246
00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,320
Speaker 9: record high. So, I mean, the US now accounts for

247
00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:48,600
Speaker 9: something like twenty percent of all the world's oil production,

248
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,880
Speaker 9: including commentsates and natural gas liquids. So look, it just

249
00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:53,600
Speaker 9: continues to be a great place to do.

250
00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, which is so interesting. So you have now

251
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 4: Gulf of Mexico, say's deep water, you have LNG export assets,

252
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,280
Speaker 4: and then you also have gas.

253
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,240
Speaker 3: How are all of them going to wind up working together?

254
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,520
Speaker 9: Well, look, so we will be exporting LNG probably twenty

255
00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,320
Speaker 9: twenty six onwards. We have the new contract in place,

256
00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,880
Speaker 9: we have effective We have the last eighty months repositioned

257
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,000
Speaker 9: that onshore position that we picked up from Chesapeake, the

258
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,640
Speaker 9: Eagle Food position, which was mostly oil. Actually it's like

259
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,000
Speaker 9: sort of eighty five percent oil with oil liquids. It's

260
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,160
Speaker 9: got a decent amount of gas. In the these two assets,

261
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,600
Speaker 9: they're not operated. We've got great operators in both shell

262
00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:34,840
Speaker 9: in one asset hes and the other which is obviously

263
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 9: becomes Chevron, and we'll learn a lot about that particular region.

264
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,480
Speaker 9: We then also have a growth oil business in Denmark

265
00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 9: and a gas business in the UK. So we'll start

266
00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,960
Speaker 9: to bring that web, virtual web together and as you'd expect, Alex,

267
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,240
Speaker 9: on top of that, what we're building around that web

268
00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:58,480
Speaker 9: of assets is a trading business. Both LNG gas and

269
00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,120
Speaker 9: oil trading, so that will then start to ensure that

270
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:02,840
Speaker 9: we can pick up the incremental value that comes from

271
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:03,960
Speaker 9: moving those products around the world.

272
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,760
Speaker 7: What's the competitive environment for you in kind of your businesses.

273
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,040
Speaker 7: They're down in the golf down in the South Texas area.

274
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,439
Speaker 7: How do you compete against some of the bigger companies there.

275
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 7: What's the strategy in this case?

276
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 9: We're not operated, right, so we get carried by the

277
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,280
Speaker 9: two main operators, which, as I say, are sort of

278
00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 9: two the sort of top operators in the Gulf of

279
00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,400
Speaker 9: Mexico and have got the long history of operating there,

280
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 9: so we'll get carried as part of that, we'd like

281
00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 9: to get an operated position.

282
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:31,800
Speaker 1: I think we have big ambitions.

283
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,320
Speaker 9: And when we started to create this company out of Ineos,

284
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 9: Ineos already massive footprint the United States as a petrochemical company,

285
00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,240
Speaker 9: and as we started to build up the energy business

286
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,640
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty one, you know that the ambition of

287
00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 9: our owners Jim Ratcliffe and his two partners has no bounds.

288
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,040
Speaker 9: And therefore I could see us at some point in

289
00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 9: the future building this out into something much bigger, maybe

290
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 9: in the same sort of size nical company.

291
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,280
Speaker 4: Hey, Brian, before we let you go talk about the

292
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 4: trading part of it, because clearly BP's trading arm was it.

293
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,479
Speaker 3: Is the giant right of all the oil majors.

294
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,680
Speaker 4: Excellent has wanted to kind of build up its own

295
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 4: trading unit, like everyone kind of wants a pizza that pie.

296
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:16,520
Speaker 3: How are you guys going to do it?

297
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 1: Look as surely hard.

298
00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,240
Speaker 9: You have to You have to have the DNA and

299
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 9: your system to really be successful. We've hired a couple

300
00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,600
Speaker 9: of people that we know well. The first thing we

301
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 9: did over the last six months actually last eighteen months

302
00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,440
Speaker 9: who built out a risk structure because of course if

303
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 9: you're going to trade commodities, you need to be absolutely

304
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 9: ensure that you have the risk framework around that. So

305
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 9: we built out the risk capability. We've started now getting

306
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,520
Speaker 9: ramped up for our LNG trading operation, which should start

307
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 9: in the next two years, and then oil trading is

308
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 9: short steps, but it's with an experienced team that we

309
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,520
Speaker 9: already know, and of course three because we have this

310
00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,760
Speaker 9: massive industrial footprint called Ineos. It's it's the third largest

311
00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 9: chemical company in the world that gives us as to

312
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 9: flow globally, so that will be short steps. But the

313
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 9: key is to make sure that we've got that capability

314
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 9: that allows us to add those extra extra sense to

315
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:08,600
Speaker 9: the margin on the barrel.

316
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 4: All right, Brian, really looking forward to get getting a

317
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:13,160
Speaker 4: more update from you. Keep in touch, let us know

318
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,720
Speaker 4: when the next events happen. Good to see you, Brian Gavari.

319
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 4: He is joining us from Ineos. He's the chairman of

320
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,320
Speaker 4: Ineos Energy, previously the CFO of BP, which is where

321
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:25,880
Speaker 4: he and I started talking.

322
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 3: Years and years and years ago.

323
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 4: So you see, kind of the evolution of someone's career

324
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 4: is really quite interesting.

325
00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 1: I want to get on one of those offshore rigs,

326
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:33,720
Speaker 1: me too.

327
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 3: Did you know that if you do that, though, you

328
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 3: need helicopter training.

329
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,120
Speaker 1: Helicopter training, yes, passenger.

330
00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, So the helicopter training is you're in a pool

331
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,800
Speaker 4: and they put you in a helicopter and they dunk

332
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 4: you and you have to swim out by yourself, and

333
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 4: you don't get certified unless you're able to swim.

334
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 3: Out by yourself. Oh and one of my biggest fears

335
00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 3: is doing that.

336
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 7: So that's an issue. Okay, I'd still like to try it,

337
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 7: but even all right, we'll see how it goes. I

338
00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 7: always thought that would be I can't imagine being at

339
00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,280
Speaker 7: the the notion on one of those things.

340
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm doing that dangerous hard work too.

341
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 10: Yeah.

342
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,440
Speaker 4: Well, that's why the automation piece of oil and gas

343
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,800
Speaker 4: is so critical because if you can do that reducing

344
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,280
Speaker 4: the amount of people that you're putting in any sort

345
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,320
Speaker 4: of harm's way offshore, like, that's huge, and that's an

346
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 4: industry and mining also, where like that automation hand is

347
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,639
Speaker 4: not just a cost saver, it's like a life saver.

348
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,919
Speaker 3: So interesting to see how they manage on with that.

349
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

350
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Easter on Apple, Cardplay and Android

351
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

352
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

353
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,440
Speaker 4: All right, in the markets, SMP is down by four

354
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 4: tens of one percent, the nest I got by three

355
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 4: tens of one percent.

356
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:46,359
Speaker 3: What to do? Headed into the FED?

357
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 4: Danadoria's co chief investment officer at Investment joining us. Now, okay,

358
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 4: you have on one hand, Bank of America is saying that.

359
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 3: Cash levels are hitting a level where you may actually.

360
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,439
Speaker 4: Want to sell equities to your rope price sing you

361
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,239
Speaker 4: could hit six percent of the ten next year, what

362
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 4: do you do.

363
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:04,120
Speaker 5: Well?

364
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 10: That certainly flies in the face of what we've been

365
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 10: hearing for a long time, which is, you know, more

366
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 10: consistent with a risk on market. You know, consumer spending

367
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 10: obviously doing well, you know, not a not a bad

368
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 10: nothing like.

369
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 5: A bleak picture for employment.

370
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 10: But I think what's happening and what you're starting to

371
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:25,160
Speaker 10: hear in reference is things are getting ahead of themselves

372
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,959
Speaker 10: as they as they sometimes do, right and you know,

373
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 10: as good as it seems right now, and not a

374
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 10: lot of reason to expect headwinds. The market is just

375
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 10: pricing in good times at a faster rate maybe than

376
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 10: what we think that we can actually sustain. And so

377
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 10: you know, value matters, price matters, and as and you're

378
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,880
Speaker 10: seeing a little bit of that now, right, So maybe

379
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,200
Speaker 10: a little bit of a back pedaling there.

380
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 5: But you know, I think the market has been and.

381
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,479
Speaker 10: Continues to be pricing in a very rosy scenario. And

382
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 10: you know it's not that we're without reasons to think

383
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,399
Speaker 10: that that could tamp down, and one of them, of

384
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:04,879
Speaker 10: course being that notwithstanding you know, the rate cut this month,

385
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 10: when are we going to get continued rate cuts? Are

386
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 10: we going to or we're going to have a pause

387
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 10: as soon as January.

388
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 7: So from a positioning standpoint, Dana is twenty five. The

389
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 7: beginning of twenty five look different for you guys than

390
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 7: kind of made me where you ended twenty four.

391
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,880
Speaker 10: I think twenty five it's interesting because we sit at

392
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 10: the nexus of a lot of different you know, economic

393
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 10: input from macro analysts and asset managers, et cetera. And

394
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 10: it's interesting just to look across what you're starting to

395
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,640
Speaker 10: see come in around twenty twenty five.

396
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 5: Outlooks.

397
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 10: Some of them are you know, we're going to see

398
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,959
Speaker 10: some consolidation, A lot of it is.

399
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 5: We have a good reason to think that the.

400
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 10: Good times keep rolling, at least at at least in

401
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 10: the beginning. You know, I think consensus sort of at

402
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,199
Speaker 10: least the way I see it coalescing is around. We

403
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 10: don't have a reason to expect some sort of you know,

404
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 10: big market correction early into twenty twenty five. But a

405
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,199
Speaker 10: lot has to pan out still, right, we have to

406
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 10: understand how the new administration's policies are really going to

407
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 10: be implemented, you know, is it going to be all

408
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 10: the way to where maybe some of the rhetoric is

409
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 10: or is it going to be tamped down a lot

410
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 10: when it's things like trade and tariffs, you know, are

411
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,120
Speaker 10: what are we going to see in terms.

412
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,880
Speaker 5: Of bills that extend tax cuts, et cetera. So there's

413
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 5: there's just a lot that has to be that is

414
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 5: still unknown.

415
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 10: But I don't think as you roll into twenty twenty

416
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,479
Speaker 10: five you're going to get those answers that quickly.

417
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 4: So you to choose what do you do with small

418
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 4: caps versus megacap tech? And I know that's not necessarily

419
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 4: a fair comparison, but I'm basically talking about growth that's

420
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 4: working and that's been tech versus small caps are still

421
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 4: waiting for that sustained bid.

422
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 10: It's such a good question.

423
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 5: You know, I am a believer in valuation.

424
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 10: I am a believer that no matter how good the

425
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 10: outlook for you know, the numerator right the cash flows,

426
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 10: you really have to pay attention to the denominator and

427
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 10: how much they're being discounted by. And you know, we're

428
00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 10: just in another phase where megacap and growth are running wild.

429
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 10: And you know, my instinct is to say, you've got

430
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 10: to at least diversify into other parts of the market.

431
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 5: You got to make sure your portfolios.

432
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 10: It has a robust keeping of you know, and small

433
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 10: caps stand to win, right with a lot of the

434
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 10: policies that potentially could be brought to bear are the tariffs,

435
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,439
Speaker 10: they're not hurt as much by that. Granted, if we

436
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 10: have a little bit higher for longer, that's not as

437
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:22,360
Speaker 10: good for small caps.

438
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 5: They're definitely more inter.

439
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 10: Just rate dependent, but you know they stand to benefit

440
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 10: if it's a risk on environment, and I lean toward

441
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 10: at the very least have them in the portfolio, and frankly,

442
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 10: if you can stomach short term volatility, maybe even a

443
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 10: little bit of an overweight, because over the long haul

444
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 10: they should outperform, especially small value stocks.

445
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 7: So, Dana, when you see a security and I guess

446
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 7: i'll call your security here, like bitcoin effectively double almost

447
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,959
Speaker 7: since the election, what does that tell you about just

448
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 7: the market?

449
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 5: I guess.

450
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 10: So Bitcoin's really interesting asset, right because you know, on

451
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,160
Speaker 10: the one hand, there's a whole element of it being

452
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 10: potentially a currency, and you.

453
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 5: Know it's unfolding literally before our eyes.

454
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 10: Whether you know it can gain traction in that respect,

455
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 10: and what the next administration will do to to make

456
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 10: that happen. I think for most investors, though it's really

457
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 10: more obviously is it a return enhancer for the portfolio,

458
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 10: and you can gain access to bitcoin from that perspective

459
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 10: with a variety of btfs. Now we're seeing it right

460
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 10: here on our own platform, you know, not just this

461
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 10: is not just you know, kind of investors on their own.

462
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 10: You're actually seeing advisory assets entering this space, institutional assets

463
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 10: enter this space. That tells me that, you know, there's

464
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 10: there're just more solidity underlying that. You have papers out

465
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 10: there from big, big asset managers around utility functions.

466
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 5: With bitcoin and the fact that.

467
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 10: You know, for most people, because there's such an asymmetric payoff,

468
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 10: sort of this lotto aspect to.

469
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 5: It, for a lot of people, some.

470
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 10: Small slug of bitcoin actually could make sense because the

471
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 10: upside is much bigger than the downside. So I think

472
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 10: you're seeing an institutional interest there that maybe wasn't there before,

473
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 10: and you can get access if you want to participate.

474
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 10: We're cautious about, you know, how much you should put

475
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 10: to something like that.

476
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 5: Very balatile obviously, but.

477
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 10: If you want access, I think these ETFs that are

478
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 10: backed up by big asset managers take the risk out

479
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 10: of you know, the operational risk out of the position.

480
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 5: You can do it.

481
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: It was interesting.

482
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 4: Cameron Christ writes Macroman a column every morning, and today

483
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 4: in his column he said he really wants a reporter

484
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 4: to ask J Powell tomorrow about the surgeon fart coin

485
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 4: and what that might say about financial markets and risk appetite.

486
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 4: Big Quinn aside. It's a great point when you have

487
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,719
Speaker 4: the megacap growth at tech stocks and then you have

488
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 4: fart coin doing really well.

489
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 3: All right, Dana, thanks a lot, Dana Dioria. She's joining us.

490
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 4: There a coach Eve Investment, an officer over at Investment.

491
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify,

492
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

493
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 2: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

494
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

495
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

496
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal