WEBVTT - May Says Brexit Bill Will Become Law Soon (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Greg's store in Washington with June Grasso in New York.

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit is now poised to happen. Britain's Parliament yesterday voted

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<v Speaker 1>to let the government invoke Article fifty of the Lisbon

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<v Speaker 1>Treaty and begin two years of withdrawal talks with the

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<v Speaker 1>European Union. The measure gives Prime Minister Theresa May unrestricted

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<v Speaker 1>authority to negotiate the terms of the UK's departure. May

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<v Speaker 1>plans to trigger Article fifty in the last week of March,

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<v Speaker 1>according to officials familiar with her plans. With us to

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<v Speaker 1>discuss the latest Brexit developments and what might happen next.

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<v Speaker 1>Is Stephen Pierce, a professor at the University of Essex

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<v Speaker 1>School of Law. Steve, thanks for joining us. Tell us

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit more about what exactly it was that

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<v Speaker 1>Parliament voted on yesterday. Well, what Parliament had to do

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<v Speaker 1>in order for Article fifty to be triggered was to

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<v Speaker 1>pass a putty slide actor Parliament saying that the government

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<v Speaker 1>could go ahead and do it. And this is a

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<v Speaker 1>very very short ultimately one of the shortest stack to

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<v Speaker 1>Parliament I imagine, which says basic the government can go

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<v Speaker 1>ahead and do it and decided not to attach any

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<v Speaker 1>conditions that some members upon them I wanted to attach.

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<v Speaker 1>So the government can now add to its own discretion,

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead and send the Article fifty notice and start

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<v Speaker 1>everything running. Now there's been a little complication. The Scottish

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<v Speaker 1>Parliament is getting involved with the the the Head of

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<v Speaker 1>Scotland saying that they would like to leave the EU

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<v Speaker 1>and saying that the Scottish Parliament is going to vote

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<v Speaker 1>on second independence referendum next Wednesday. How does that complicate matters? Well, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>it's uh. The idea is that Scotland would have a

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<v Speaker 1>referenum on learning the UK and then seeking to stay

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<v Speaker 1>in the EU, will probably leading along with the UK

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<v Speaker 1>and then ending up applying to go back in. So

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<v Speaker 1>I might have shot gap when Scotland is out. But

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<v Speaker 1>if all this goes ahead with that plan, So what

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<v Speaker 1>that would mean if an independence referendum goes ahead, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course it the independent side winds is that Scotland

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<v Speaker 1>could end up being back in the EU fairly soon

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<v Speaker 1>or it may not. Actually what they might just have

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<v Speaker 1>to win the referendum they have to get back in

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<v Speaker 1>the EU and the several things that have to take

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<v Speaker 1>place and the British government probably arguably have to say

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<v Speaker 1>yes to the referendum going ahead anyway, and it's not

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<v Speaker 1>quite clear if they'll do that yet. Steve, how important

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<v Speaker 1>is it that Theresa May goes into these discussions without

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<v Speaker 1>any restrictions on her as a practical matter? Uh? Does it?

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<v Speaker 1>Does it improve her leverage in those talks? Well, there's

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<v Speaker 1>different points of view, and there's certainly the government and

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<v Speaker 1>the people who back Prexit felt that it was very

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<v Speaker 1>important not to have any kind of conditions in the

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<v Speaker 1>Article fifty bills. But a lot of people argued that

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<v Speaker 1>at least some of the can claus as they wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to add it to the bill would have really have

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<v Speaker 1>restricted her, but they would have done other things like

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<v Speaker 1>guaranteeing EU citizens rights to stay, and that would have

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<v Speaker 1>been separate from other things that you I want to

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<v Speaker 1>negotiate or coming back to Parliament with reports and things

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<v Speaker 1>like that. They wouldn't really have necessarily restricted term. But

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<v Speaker 1>obviously the government got its way and said there's nothing

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<v Speaker 1>in the law so far that's an actual legal restriction.

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<v Speaker 1>There might be political problems, and of course this whole

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<v Speaker 1>prospect of a Scottish independence referendum is a sort of

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<v Speaker 1>parallel political complication to the talks, because it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>intersect in a way if the referenducers ahead with the

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<v Speaker 1>Blexit talks. Steve Lawmakers published a report on Sunday which

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<v Speaker 1>warned that the government's failure to prepare for a scenario

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<v Speaker 1>in which no deal is reached with the EU over

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit would be a serious dereliction of duty. Is there

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<v Speaker 1>a real prospect that this two year negotiation period might

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<v Speaker 1>end in a deadlock? Well, I think it's a growing possibility.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, six months ago would have said you know

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<v Speaker 1>about a one present possibility. Now I would say more

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<v Speaker 1>like hurty or forty percenting getting bigger. I think some

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<v Speaker 1>people on the Brexit support in side would quite like

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<v Speaker 1>that to be no deal because they had to think

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<v Speaker 1>it would have no impact, or they really quite dislike

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<v Speaker 1>to EU so strong and ters of ideologically that they

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<v Speaker 1>really don't want anything to do with it, even as

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<v Speaker 1>a contracting party to a treat you with it. The

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<v Speaker 1>majority of think the government and certainly in the country

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<v Speaker 1>as a whole, would like that to be a deal

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<v Speaker 1>because it's still Britain's biggest trading conner by thought, and

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<v Speaker 1>there will be a big impact if we left without

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<v Speaker 1>a deal on a bigger fact as a proportion of

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<v Speaker 1>the economy, a bigger impact on the UK. And it might,

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<v Speaker 1>for instance, the reason why scottlan will be more likely

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<v Speaker 1>to lead the in the UK um if there if

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<v Speaker 1>there's no good deal, for instance. So it's one of

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<v Speaker 1>the ways it was this Scottish independence referendum put intersect

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<v Speaker 1>with the Brexit talks. Steve, we only have about thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seconds left. But in any other big issues that you

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<v Speaker 1>see going forward forward, what do you think is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be the biggest pivot point in the next few months. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we're waiting for the elections in various countries. Once, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I was in charge in France and Germany and the Netherlands.

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<v Speaker 1>Tomorrow we'll have a pretty good idea of who the

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<v Speaker 1>UK's negotiating partners are and some people are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be used going to collapse. We should know within a

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<v Speaker 1>few months if that's realistic or or a fairly ridiculous suggestion. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>thank thank you so much. Steven Pierce, professor at the

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<v Speaker 1>University of Essex School of Law, talking about the latest

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<v Speaker 1>developments in Brexit