1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,679
Speaker 1: I'm Greg's store in Washington with June Grasso in New York.

2
00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:07,120
Speaker 1: Brexit is now poised to happen. Britain's Parliament yesterday voted

3
00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,039
Speaker 1: to let the government invoke Article fifty of the Lisbon

4
00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:12,720
Speaker 1: Treaty and begin two years of withdrawal talks with the

5
00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:17,000
Speaker 1: European Union. The measure gives Prime Minister Theresa May unrestricted

6
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,840
Speaker 1: authority to negotiate the terms of the UK's departure. May

7
00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: plans to trigger Article fifty in the last week of March,

8
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,800
Speaker 1: according to officials familiar with her plans. With us to

9
00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,840
Speaker 1: discuss the latest Brexit developments and what might happen next.

10
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,040
Speaker 1: Is Stephen Pierce, a professor at the University of Essex

11
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,559
Speaker 1: School of Law. Steve, thanks for joining us. Tell us

12
00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:39,960
Speaker 1: a little bit more about what exactly it was that

13
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:45,159
Speaker 1: Parliament voted on yesterday. Well, what Parliament had to do

14
00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,519
Speaker 1: in order for Article fifty to be triggered was to

15
00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,960
Speaker 1: pass a putty slide actor Parliament saying that the government

16
00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:54,520
Speaker 1: could go ahead and do it. And this is a

17
00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,640
Speaker 1: very very short ultimately one of the shortest stack to

18
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 1: Parliament I imagine, which says basic the government can go

19
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,800
Speaker 1: ahead and do it and decided not to attach any

20
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,200
Speaker 1: conditions that some members upon them I wanted to attach.

21
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,000
Speaker 1: So the government can now add to its own discretion,

22
00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,160
Speaker 1: go ahead and send the Article fifty notice and start

23
00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:18,559
Speaker 1: everything running. Now there's been a little complication. The Scottish

24
00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 1: Parliament is getting involved with the the the Head of

25
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,639
Speaker 1: Scotland saying that they would like to leave the EU

26
00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,839
Speaker 1: and saying that the Scottish Parliament is going to vote

27
00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:37,640
Speaker 1: on second independence referendum next Wednesday. How does that complicate matters? Well, yes,

28
00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:39,800
Speaker 1: it's uh. The idea is that Scotland would have a

29
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,839
Speaker 1: referenum on learning the UK and then seeking to stay

30
00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,280
Speaker 1: in the EU, will probably leading along with the UK

31
00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: and then ending up applying to go back in. So

32
00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,080
Speaker 1: I might have shot gap when Scotland is out. But

33
00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,800
Speaker 1: if all this goes ahead with that plan, So what

34
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,560
Speaker 1: that would mean if an independence referendum goes ahead, and

35
00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,320
Speaker 1: of course it the independent side winds is that Scotland

36
00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,200
Speaker 1: could end up being back in the EU fairly soon

37
00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 1: or it may not. Actually what they might just have

38
00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:09,320
Speaker 1: to win the referendum they have to get back in

39
00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:10,880
Speaker 1: the EU and the several things that have to take

40
00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,119
Speaker 1: place and the British government probably arguably have to say

41
00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:16,880
Speaker 1: yes to the referendum going ahead anyway, and it's not

42
00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,840
Speaker 1: quite clear if they'll do that yet. Steve, how important

43
00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,680
Speaker 1: is it that Theresa May goes into these discussions without

44
00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:29,519
Speaker 1: any restrictions on her as a practical matter? Uh? Does it?

45
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:34,519
Speaker 1: Does it improve her leverage in those talks? Well, there's

46
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,160
Speaker 1: different points of view, and there's certainly the government and

47
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 1: the people who back Prexit felt that it was very

48
00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 1: important not to have any kind of conditions in the

49
00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 1: Article fifty bills. But a lot of people argued that

50
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,400
Speaker 1: at least some of the can claus as they wanted

51
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,760
Speaker 1: to add it to the bill would have really have

52
00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:53,880
Speaker 1: restricted her, but they would have done other things like

53
00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,600
Speaker 1: guaranteeing EU citizens rights to stay, and that would have

54
00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,360
Speaker 1: been separate from other things that you I want to

55
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,839
Speaker 1: negotiate or coming back to Parliament with reports and things

56
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,600
Speaker 1: like that. They wouldn't really have necessarily restricted term. But

57
00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 1: obviously the government got its way and said there's nothing

58
00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,720
Speaker 1: in the law so far that's an actual legal restriction.

59
00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,400
Speaker 1: There might be political problems, and of course this whole

60
00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,120
Speaker 1: prospect of a Scottish independence referendum is a sort of

61
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:23,360
Speaker 1: parallel political complication to the talks, because it's going to

62
00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 1: intersect in a way if the referenducers ahead with the

63
00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:31,240
Speaker 1: Blexit talks. Steve Lawmakers published a report on Sunday which

64
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,400
Speaker 1: warned that the government's failure to prepare for a scenario

65
00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,280
Speaker 1: in which no deal is reached with the EU over

66
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:41,720
Speaker 1: Brexit would be a serious dereliction of duty. Is there

67
00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:45,640
Speaker 1: a real prospect that this two year negotiation period might

68
00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:51,160
Speaker 1: end in a deadlock? Well, I think it's a growing possibility.

69
00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,720
Speaker 1: You know, six months ago would have said you know

70
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,360
Speaker 1: about a one present possibility. Now I would say more

71
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,080
Speaker 1: like hurty or forty percenting getting bigger. I think some

72
00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:01,120
Speaker 1: people on the Brexit support in side would quite like

73
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,920
Speaker 1: that to be no deal because they had to think

74
00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,920
Speaker 1: it would have no impact, or they really quite dislike

75
00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,800
Speaker 1: to EU so strong and ters of ideologically that they

76
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,480
Speaker 1: really don't want anything to do with it, even as

77
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:17,039
Speaker 1: a contracting party to a treat you with it. The

78
00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,279
Speaker 1: majority of think the government and certainly in the country

79
00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,160
Speaker 1: as a whole, would like that to be a deal

80
00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,200
Speaker 1: because it's still Britain's biggest trading conner by thought, and

81
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 1: there will be a big impact if we left without

82
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,359
Speaker 1: a deal on a bigger fact as a proportion of

83
00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 1: the economy, a bigger impact on the UK. And it might,

84
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,599
Speaker 1: for instance, the reason why scottlan will be more likely

85
00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 1: to lead the in the UK um if there if

86
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:41,200
Speaker 1: there's no good deal, for instance. So it's one of

87
00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,880
Speaker 1: the ways it was this Scottish independence referendum put intersect

88
00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,480
Speaker 1: with the Brexit talks. Steve, we only have about thirty

89
00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,200
Speaker 1: seconds left. But in any other big issues that you

90
00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,440
Speaker 1: see going forward forward, what do you think is going

91
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:57,320
Speaker 1: to be the biggest pivot point in the next few months. Well,

92
00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:00,120
Speaker 1: we're waiting for the elections in various countries. Once, you know,

93
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,239
Speaker 1: I was in charge in France and Germany and the Netherlands.

94
00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:06,039
Speaker 1: Tomorrow we'll have a pretty good idea of who the

95
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,520
Speaker 1: UK's negotiating partners are and some people are going to

96
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,120
Speaker 1: be used going to collapse. We should know within a

97
00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:15,560
Speaker 1: few months if that's realistic or or a fairly ridiculous suggestion. Okay,

98
00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:17,800
Speaker 1: thank thank you so much. Steven Pierce, professor at the

99
00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 1: University of Essex School of Law, talking about the latest

100
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:21,880
Speaker 1: developments in Brexit