WEBVTT - Amazon Slips Below $1 Trillion in Value

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News Amazon, which, as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as we've been reporting shocking Wall Street projecting the slowest

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<v Speaker 1>holiday growth quarter in the company's history. We've seen the

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<v Speaker 1>stock plunge big time last night and the trade carrying

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<v Speaker 1>over into the regular day. Today. Amazade's mark market value

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<v Speaker 1>set to fall below a trillion dollars after its disappointing

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<v Speaker 1>earnings report. So let's get to it with our own

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Day, Matt Day's technology reporter for Bloomberg News, who

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<v Speaker 1>joins us via zoom from Seattle. Matt, you've had close

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty four hours to dig into this to report

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<v Speaker 1>on this the slowest ever growth for the company's holiday quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's the part that really sticks out to me.

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<v Speaker 1>What is it? Is this more of an Amazon story?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it more of an economy story? I think it's both.

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<v Speaker 1>Amazon has been trying to rein in costs all year.

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<v Speaker 1>The last report show they didn't really do that, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think it would be of a analyst this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was who sounded the alarm and said, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>if Amazon is projecting this week holiday quarter into the

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<v Speaker 1>can row as lowest two, then we might already be intercession.

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<v Speaker 1>Um that that on its own as an indication that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's not just an Amazon story with something

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<v Speaker 1>going wrong in the wider economy. Having said that, what

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<v Speaker 1>are though, the Amazon specific issues, Because there are some, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Oh there are. Yeah. They when the pandemic hit and

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<v Speaker 1>everybody you know went home and started shopping online for

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<v Speaker 1>for everything by choice or by need, Amazon started spending

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<v Speaker 1>huge new warehouses. You know, they were still building new

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<v Speaker 1>data centers for their cloud computing business, and that worked

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<v Speaker 1>out for you know, called eighteen months late last year,

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<v Speaker 1>when demand started to dry up, they realized they had

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<v Speaker 1>way too much based way too many people, and so

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<v Speaker 1>they've been in cost cutting mode basically all year long. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen recently that spread to their corporate ranks as well.

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<v Speaker 1>They're starting to wind down some of their marginal products,

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<v Speaker 1>stuff that they didn't think was going to make it big.

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<v Speaker 1>They shut down their telehealth service. UM. So there's still

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<v Speaker 1>you know, investing for the long term as Amazon like

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<v Speaker 1>Sterm mind folks, but they definitely overbuilt based on what

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<v Speaker 1>they saw in What about that profit engine known as

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<v Speaker 1>Amazon Web Services a WS. What did we learned about

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<v Speaker 1>the company in terms of how cloud growth is doing,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in the context of what Microsoft reported earlier this

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<v Speaker 1>week as Microsoft given warning and Amazon gave maybe even

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<v Speaker 1>bigger one. Growth is great for a business that prints money,

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<v Speaker 1>but um, it is the lowest ever since Amazon began

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<v Speaker 1>breaking out aws back in One worrying thing for analysts

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<v Speaker 1>on the call yesterday now, Amazon CFO said that some

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<v Speaker 1>customers were asking for help cutting their bills. Um, and

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<v Speaker 1>some pretty dour chatter about what businesses we're doing with

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<v Speaker 1>cloud spending. We didn't hear much of that at all.

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<v Speaker 1>During the pandemic. Cloud spending held up really well. So

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<v Speaker 1>I suggest that this is something new for awus. Wait,

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<v Speaker 1>am I crazy and thinking that we could be talking

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<v Speaker 1>about Microsoft right now? Didn't Microsoft essentially say the exact

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<v Speaker 1>same thing. Yeah, exactly right. And that's enough enough to

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<v Speaker 1>compound to worry about a business that you know, people

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<v Speaker 1>have been saying it's going to grow forever and throwing

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<v Speaker 1>out a bunch of ludicrous figures on exactly how profit

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be for Microsoft and Amazon. Amazon said

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<v Speaker 1>they started seeing a lot of softness and their enterprise

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<v Speaker 1>customers in the second half the third quarter, and then

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<v Speaker 1>it's continued this this quarter. You know it's interesting too,

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<v Speaker 1>And I know you wrote and reported earlier that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we did see actually shares of Amazon and the market

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<v Speaker 1>capt go below a trillion. Amazon shares they're trading definitely

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<v Speaker 1>off their worst levels of this session. In fact, it's

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<v Speaker 1>just the biggest drop since Mayo. So it's not like

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't seen it in years. If you will, um, so,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you I don't know, how do we spend

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<v Speaker 1>this forward? Matt? How do we need to be thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about this? Because I gotta say, I keep saying to

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<v Speaker 1>Tim all week, you know my world is I'm ordering

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<v Speaker 1>on Amazon, I'm watching Amazon Prime. I use lots of

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<v Speaker 1>Apple products and I Google everything, so like that's my world.

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<v Speaker 1>So these three companies, you know, and Amazon and particularly

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<v Speaker 1>so entrenched in our worlds, are many of our worlds.

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<v Speaker 1>Long term, Amazon is probably gonna be fine. They're not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna go out of business. You know, some analysts this morning,

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<v Speaker 1>are you trying to calm that drop we saw after

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<v Speaker 1>hours last night? You've seen it. It bounts this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>As you said, Um, They're advertising business is still growing.

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<v Speaker 1>They're probably still going to take share there because they're

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<v Speaker 1>just so close to people's wallets. Right. You know, Google

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<v Speaker 1>and Facebook have an idea what you buy. Amazon knows

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<v Speaker 1>exactly what you buy. So their ad business is still

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<v Speaker 1>a bright spot form cloud growth. Even if it's only

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<v Speaker 1>that's still a very lucrative business that's got a long

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<v Speaker 1>way to goo. Um, the long term outlook is is

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<v Speaker 1>okay for them as long as they can get their

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<v Speaker 1>costs under control. Where analysts most bullish when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to what Amazon can do, is it that ad business

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<v Speaker 1>because I don't know, I mean, do Apple's I d

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<v Speaker 1>f A changes affect that it doesn't seem like it's

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<v Speaker 1>a similar type of ad business because people you know,

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<v Speaker 1>are going there searching for what to buy, and then

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<v Speaker 1>they buy the product that they search for. Yeah, exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>definitely a different story than than kind of the the

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<v Speaker 1>gut punch to Facebook that that change was ads is

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<v Speaker 1>is definitely spot People are real optimistic about cloud is too.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you've seen Amazon trade much more like a

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<v Speaker 1>tech stock than a retail stock in the last really

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<v Speaker 1>since they reported AWS results for the first time in

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<v Speaker 1>so clouds and other obvious area where people are really

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<v Speaker 1>I think in the long term, people still think that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, their retail business can show profits more than

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<v Speaker 1>a half historically, right, Let's get right, Matt, is there

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<v Speaker 1>at some point we look at these companies that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean Amazon for a long time, right, we were

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<v Speaker 1>just waiting for it to turn a profit, and there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of investing, and finally it did. But at

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<v Speaker 1>some point what we consider maybe growth companies, all of

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<v Speaker 1>a sudden, they still grow, they just don't grow at

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<v Speaker 1>the dramatic rates. They become these behemoths, you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>their industry, and moving the needle gets harder and harder.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that fair to say or maybe not? I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's definitely something worth watching for Amazon now, like have

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<v Speaker 1>we hit peak? Amazon was kind of the crazy growth

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<v Speaker 1>we saw are in pandemic? Enought to call it and say, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>this might be a different company now. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>signs of that yesterday analysts were asking on the conference

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<v Speaker 1>call after earnings when Amazon might stop investing in new

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<v Speaker 1>data centers. That is that is a crazy bit of

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<v Speaker 1>costume and the suggestion that they should slow down growth

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<v Speaker 1>on you know, it's thought to be a potential trillion

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<v Speaker 1>dollar market opportunity, right, Um, yeah, definitely some some caution

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<v Speaker 1>out there, right everything, And I think about what Mike

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<v Speaker 1>McKee talked about, like was it some distribution facilities that

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<v Speaker 1>it was in the latest growth data that you're not

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<v Speaker 1>seeing as much of it as happening, So you do

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<v Speaker 1>wonder about this, right the retrenchment. Hey, Matt Day, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. Matt is technology reporter at Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>Joining us via zoom from Seattle. You're listening to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. For just the second time ever,

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<v Speaker 1>an entire issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine is dedicated

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<v Speaker 1>to a single topic from a single writer. You might

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<v Speaker 1>recall Paul Ford's what is Code? That was the first. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this time around it is Bloomberg Opinions Matt Levin giving

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<v Speaker 1>us forty thou words on digital assets, a primer on

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<v Speaker 1>the innovation that could forever change the way we transact

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<v Speaker 1>and how we view the world of finance. It is

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<v Speaker 1>called the Crypto Story, Your guide to what it does,

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<v Speaker 1>what it means, and why it still matters. Matt, as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, covers finance. He was an editor of deal Breaker,

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<v Speaker 1>an investment banker at Goldman, Sachs and m and a

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<v Speaker 1>lawyer at Wachtell Lipton, a clerk for the U S

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<v Speaker 1>Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. He joins us

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<v Speaker 1>via zoom from New York City, and he joins us

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<v Speaker 1>along with the editor of Bloomberg Business Week magazine, Joel

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<v Speaker 1>whoever he is in our interactive broker studio. So, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we want to get to Matt, but tell us a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about how this all came to be UM

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<v Speaker 1>So earlier UM in the year. Over the summer UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we started watching Crypto Winter unfold and we started to

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<v Speaker 1>have several conversations that led to a big conversation where

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<v Speaker 1>it was like, Hey, what are all the various things

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<v Speaker 1>we want to try and put in motion? Um, sooner

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<v Speaker 1>rather than later. And out of that little huddle UM

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<v Speaker 1>on the afternoon of June. Uh. In the middle of

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<v Speaker 1>that meeting, actually, um, the number one thing that everybody

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<v Speaker 1>wanted was how do we get Matt Levin to write

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<v Speaker 1>something about crypto? And so I wrote in the middle

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<v Speaker 1>of that meeting this note, Hey there to Matt, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>there any chance you'd like to write like twenty words

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<v Speaker 1>for us sometime this summer. I could go approximately eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>thousand words shorter or longer as you prefer. And built

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<v Speaker 1>into that was this insurance policy that maybe if I

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't get twenty or forty or sixty, like, maybe I

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<v Speaker 1>could get two thousand um. Uh. And And it took

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<v Speaker 1>him about a week to reply um. And in typical

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<v Speaker 1>uh Matt fashion, he said, UM, I have not replied

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<v Speaker 1>to this, sorry because there is some chance like it

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<v Speaker 1>feels like a bad idea, but I kind of want

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<v Speaker 1>to what were you thinking? Um? Uh. So that that

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<v Speaker 1>flirting led to where we are now. We have this

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<v Speaker 1>amazing issue, UM, which is totally just a testament uh

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<v Speaker 1>to Matt and um, he and I were talking earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this week with look, we all a doormat, we love

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<v Speaker 1>his newsletter, we love money stuff. His Elon coverage has

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<v Speaker 1>been sensational, and um, you know, had had any of

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<v Speaker 1>this madness with Elon transpired any sooner, I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>Matt would have actually done this. So so thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for you know, um uh, you know, not having that chaos.

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<v Speaker 1>But Matt, what was the thing when when we started flirting?

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<v Speaker 1>What was the thing that you felt was the spark

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<v Speaker 1>that want you made you want to do this? Uh?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean the thing that I really wanted to do

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<v Speaker 1>is that, you know, crypto feels like a big enough

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<v Speaker 1>subject that it could support an entire magazine issue, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's also like a small enough subject that it feels

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<v Speaker 1>like like one person could almost get their mind around

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<v Speaker 1>all of it and then like type sequentially an explanation

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<v Speaker 1>of all of it. So you can sort of start

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<v Speaker 1>from the first principles and there's like a real obvious

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<v Speaker 1>starting point where the Stosia knocking about a bitcoin white

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<v Speaker 1>paper is like, hey, I've got this idea for crypto,

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<v Speaker 1>and then everything more or less comes out of that,

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<v Speaker 1>So you can kind of start from the beginning and

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<v Speaker 1>build from the basic concepts up to all of the

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<v Speaker 1>complicated stuff that exists today. And that just seemed like

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<v Speaker 1>a really fun ellens to try to uh cover everything.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course in the end, long though it is,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't cover everything, but like it felt like a

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<v Speaker 1>good thing to try. Um So the title, um, it

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<v Speaker 1>started as me saying, um, what what is crypto? Which

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<v Speaker 1>you know, was loosely inspired by the Paul Ford thing.

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<v Speaker 1>That was the closest approximation that I could come up with. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what was your title, Matt? And and why uh, I

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't say I had a title. I had a working title,

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<v Speaker 1>joking working title, which was what was crypto? Because we

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<v Speaker 1>were sort of joking about the fact that that in

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<v Speaker 1>some ways, you know, it feels a little silly to

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<v Speaker 1>do this during crypto winter, although actually I think that

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<v Speaker 1>ended up being helpful because you're not kind of covering

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<v Speaker 1>the market moves at the moment, but you know, you're

0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:54.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of taking a step back and looking at the

0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of broad sweep of crypto. What's kind of cool.

0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.120
<v Speaker 1>As I have to say, Matt um loved it. I've

0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:00.720
<v Speaker 1>read it. I've had to read read things a couple

0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.400
<v Speaker 1>of times because I feel like though for the first time,

0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.400
<v Speaker 1>I understand so much of crypto, and I realized how

0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.800
<v Speaker 1>many things I probably was either using terminology wrong and

0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:13.640
<v Speaker 1>I just didn't have an understanding. So thank you for that, um,

0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.520
<v Speaker 1>And I do think in terms of crypto, love it,

0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:18.160
<v Speaker 1>hate it you right, In the past fourteen years, crypto

0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:22.120
<v Speaker 1>has built a whole financial system from scratch. Whether it

0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:26.880
<v Speaker 1>works or not, that's kind of cool, isn't it. Yeah,

0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean I like, you know, as I say in

0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.440
<v Speaker 1>the piece, I come to this from finance, and ah,

0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.280
<v Speaker 1>my interest is not so much I'm like, wh're re

0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.600
<v Speaker 1>engineering the internet in society. My interest is, like they

0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.440
<v Speaker 1>do cool financial stuff. And I think that for me,

0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.160
<v Speaker 1>watching crypto has been fascinating because it's a mix of

0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:49.400
<v Speaker 1>like very clever essentially financial engineers and like engineer engineers

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:54.640
<v Speaker 1>who are who are looking at the problems of existing

0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:57.640
<v Speaker 1>finance and saying we have a better idea, but also

0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:01.240
<v Speaker 1>watching people who sort of like our twenty three and

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 1>like now to program a computer and like I've never

0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.720
<v Speaker 1>heard of the two financial crisis and are like just

0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.680
<v Speaker 1>doing it all over again and making the same mistakes

0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.839
<v Speaker 1>and kind of hilarious fashion. So you get you get both, right,

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:17.280
<v Speaker 1>you get like real like clever financial innovations and also

0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.640
<v Speaker 1>like disasters you can see coming a mile away. So

0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:22.800
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about some the financial innovations before we talk

0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:25.760
<v Speaker 1>about some of the disasters. To what extent have you

0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 1>seen the financial innovations actually make their way into the

0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:34.120
<v Speaker 1>traditional finance system if at all, uh, not too much.

0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, you see banks announcing we're going to do

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.840
<v Speaker 1>a blockchain project, right and like any time to make

0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:41.200
<v Speaker 1>fun of that. I got an email from someone at

0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>a bank being like, well, we actually deployed a test

0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 1>example of our blockchain products. But in general, like I

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:51.360
<v Speaker 1>don't think that you know, the innovations of decentralized finance

0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:54.040
<v Speaker 1>have come to a stock exchange near you. But what

0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 1>you have seen is people from traditional finance leaving to

0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 1>go to crypto now. That was largely feature of the

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:02.439
<v Speaker 1>crypto bullmarket, and some of them are kind of creeping

0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:04.920
<v Speaker 1>back to traditional finance now. But I do think it

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:07.240
<v Speaker 1>was also a testament like the interestingness of that where

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.880
<v Speaker 1>like if you felt like you were uh you wanted

0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.200
<v Speaker 1>to build stuff in finance where you wanted to like

0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:16.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, you saw a problem in the

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 1>existing infrastructure and you wanted to make something different. The

0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:22.400
<v Speaker 1>place where that was easiest to do, where you had

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 1>the blankest canvas, was in crypto, and so a lot

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.600
<v Speaker 1>of smart people did leave their you know, hedge fund

0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:31.560
<v Speaker 1>or high frequency trading jobs to trade crypto instead. So

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.360
<v Speaker 1>it's not so much that crypto took over traditional finance,

0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:38.280
<v Speaker 1>but that you know, kind of hired away from it. Okay,

0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.280
<v Speaker 1>So the first time I got to read the draft

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 1>was in early August, and pat Rickner, who's uh the

0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:50.320
<v Speaker 1>story editor, actually cracked it before I could get to it. Um,

0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 1>but he immediately flagged what was the first line? And

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.120
<v Speaker 1>I think it has not changed since you filed it.

0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:59.560
<v Speaker 1>And the first line is modern life consists in large

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.560
<v Speaker 1>part of entries in databases. And what was magical to

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.840
<v Speaker 1>me about that was that we're gonna we're gonna end

0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:10.240
<v Speaker 1>up with the story for words about crypto, and you

0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 1>don't start there, you start somewhere else. And can you

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 1>can you share how that, how that line came to

0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:18.560
<v Speaker 1>you and why you thought that was the perfect place

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 1>to begin. Well, I think that you if you're going

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.800
<v Speaker 1>to take crypto seriously, you have to sort of start with,

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 1>like what problem is it meant to solve? Like what

0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:32.560
<v Speaker 1>like like in some ways, you know, I said, I

0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 1>want to start at the beginning and go to the end,

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:35.440
<v Speaker 1>but you have to start before the beginning, right, you

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.280
<v Speaker 1>have to start with like what is Satsia Nakamoto sitting

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.840
<v Speaker 1>around thinking about in two thousand seven, then inspires him

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 1>to write the Bitcoin white paper? Right, like why have crypto?

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:50.040
<v Speaker 1>And I think that the answer has to do with,

0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>like one, the sort of computerization of the world where

0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 1>it's like easier and easier to kind of see that

0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 1>so much of life consists of data structures. And then

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>also with this breakdown and trust where you know, as

0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 1>I say, like the world consists of a lot of

0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 1>entries and databases, and you have like real pressure on

0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>trusting the keepers of the databases. Right, you have real

0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.680
<v Speaker 1>worries about you know, two thight you had real worries

0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 1>about banks. And that's like the sort of like immediate

0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:21.680
<v Speaker 1>impetus for a bitcoin. Right. You don't trust the bank

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:23.240
<v Speaker 1>to keep a record of your money, not so much

0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.160
<v Speaker 1>because they're not trustworthy of doing that, but because you

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of don't trust them generally, where you don't trust

0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 1>the system. You know, you don't trust the regulation um,

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.360
<v Speaker 1>and that kind of ramifies into a lot of other

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 1>places where you don't want to rely on some single party.

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 1>You don't want to rely on Facebook to kind of

0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:42.000
<v Speaker 1>keep track of the social graph and so ah, that

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 1>I think is like kind of the spark for for

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 1>for crypto many ways, is like is saying, like, you know,

0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 1>if we come with a better way to keep a

0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 1>database that doesn't rely on trusting centralized parties, then that's good.

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 1>And that's a that's kind of you know, I wanted

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:02.000
<v Speaker 1>to start with, like what motivates this rather than like,

0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, well, I have to say, like this whole

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:07.720
<v Speaker 1>idea of trust. I love how you kind of wove

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:09.640
<v Speaker 1>it through everything, right, Like I throw money in a

0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:11.840
<v Speaker 1>bank I expected to be there. I invest money in

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:13.240
<v Speaker 1>my four O one Kay, I expected to be there.

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.720
<v Speaker 1>Isn't really working this year. But I mean it's like

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.400
<v Speaker 1>digital right, Like I don't I have no interaction with

0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:23.160
<v Speaker 1>the people who are really you know, covering it for me.

0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>There's so much trust when it comes to crypto. I

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.640
<v Speaker 1>keep thinking about, like who are these people? Why should

0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:31.760
<v Speaker 1>we trust them? Ultimately? And I understand that if the

0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.560
<v Speaker 1>system doesn't work, then nobody's going to be wanting to

0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>participate in it. But I feel like we still don't

0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 1>know these people, you know what I mean, that are

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 1>behind it. How do you feel about it having kind

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 1>of broken it down, Well, you don't know that, you know,

0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:50.960
<v Speaker 1>Like maybe you do, but I don't know Jamy time right,

0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 1>like uh like like like another reason I wanted to

0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 1>start there is like to convey like just like the

0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 1>strangeness of trust in our everyday life that is sort

0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:05.879
<v Speaker 1>of like, you know, I wanted to de familiarize that

0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:07.680
<v Speaker 1>a little bit and be like, look, your whole life

0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.840
<v Speaker 1>is databases and you trust the people who keep them,

0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:13.239
<v Speaker 1>and like you don't think about it, right, because like

0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:15.639
<v Speaker 1>that's just true in the world, and like you have

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.280
<v Speaker 1>to like think of the reasons why you trust the

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.879
<v Speaker 1>keepers of databases. And some large part of that is

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:26.080
<v Speaker 1>like there's this regulatory structure where like we sort of

0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:29.359
<v Speaker 1>trust the government not to let people do crimes with

0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:31.320
<v Speaker 1>our money, you know, And then other parts of it

0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 1>are like relying on market incentives where like you know,

0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 1>you can kind of like look at a company and

0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.680
<v Speaker 1>be like, well, if this company was stealing people's money.

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:43.080
<v Speaker 1>It probably wouldn't be advertising on the subway because people

0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:44.880
<v Speaker 1>would stop giving it their money. You know, you're sort

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:46.359
<v Speaker 1>of like relying on other people to kind of do

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 1>the investigation for you. Uh And and in crypto, you know,

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.119
<v Speaker 1>like it's the same sort of basic set of things,

0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:57.680
<v Speaker 1>but the mix is different. Right. So in crypto there's

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, round numbers. There's no government regulation, right, I

0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 1>mean there's actually a lot there's a lot of people

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.360
<v Speaker 1>doing a lot of things to regulate crypto. But like

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.360
<v Speaker 1>any given project that you look at in crypto, there's

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:11.439
<v Speaker 1>some chance that no regulator has thought about it, right,

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>and they've certainly not like approved it, And certainly there's

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.439
<v Speaker 1>not legislation being like here's the steps you need to

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.919
<v Speaker 1>take to become a stable client in the US, right,

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:23.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, like there's perspective legislation, but there's not there's

0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.159
<v Speaker 1>not like a real kind of like working regulatory framework.

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:28.679
<v Speaker 1>And so you know, in much of the bunch of

0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:32.119
<v Speaker 1>our lives, we trust, you know, people because there is

0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>a regulatory structure around them, and here there isn't. And

0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:39.200
<v Speaker 1>that's weird and in many cases makes things less trustworthy.

0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.120
<v Speaker 1>And so we saw in the crypto meltdown, a lot

0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 1>of like customer facasing brokerage is you know, kind of

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.360
<v Speaker 1>like lost their customers money because they didn't they were

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:53.399
<v Speaker 1>sort of doing very levered trades without telling anyone about it. Um,

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:55.879
<v Speaker 1>there's the market incentives thing, which in crypto is a

0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:58.080
<v Speaker 1>big deal, right, Like you sort of go around thinking, well,

0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 1>if this is a big crypto exchange, it's probably be

0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.960
<v Speaker 1>trustworthy because everyone else is trusting it, right, And that

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:05.679
<v Speaker 1>as a heuristic that's not terrible, but it has you know,

0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:08.320
<v Speaker 1>in the past, the biggest bitcoin exchange at the time

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 1>was blown up. So it's not a perfect heuristic by

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.320
<v Speaker 1>any means, nor is it in traditional finance, right big

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:16.639
<v Speaker 1>banks have blown up. Um. And then the third thing

0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 1>in crypto is like there is this notion that like

0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.399
<v Speaker 1>not in all of crypto, but in lots of crypto,

0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:24.359
<v Speaker 1>and like in like the core of bitcoin and in

0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:27.280
<v Speaker 1>like decentralized finance, there is this notion that you can

0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>look at the code yourself, that everything is verifiable yourself.

0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 1>You can look at the codesea it works. You can

0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.600
<v Speaker 1>look at the ledger of transactions, the blockchain and prove

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>that every transaction is correct, and so you said you

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.399
<v Speaker 1>don't have to trust. You can verify everything without trusting it.

0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:42.280
<v Speaker 1>In practice, you're not doing that because it would take forever,

0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:47.160
<v Speaker 1>but you are, Ah, you're sort of trusting the fact

0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:49.439
<v Speaker 1>that you could do that rapification, so you have you

0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:52.240
<v Speaker 1>don't have to have as much trust in individuals. But

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:53.960
<v Speaker 1>that's not like the only thing in crypto. I mean,

0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the crypto evangelists will talk about that being like the

0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:00.639
<v Speaker 1>trustless nature of crypto, but obviously, like day to day,

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:03.479
<v Speaker 1>a lot of stuff in crypto involves trusting you know,

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:07.600
<v Speaker 1>companies and like individuals with your crypto, and often those

0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:10.000
<v Speaker 1>people turn out not to be trust really. Yeah, we

0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:12.919
<v Speaker 1>could do an entire program on talking about, you know,

0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:17.080
<v Speaker 1>the history of crypto and the grifters or alleged grifters. Colorful,

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.560
<v Speaker 1>colorful characters exactly. We're speaking with Matt Lavin. He's a

0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:23.919
<v Speaker 1>columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the story is The

0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:26.600
<v Speaker 1>story is his in a Bloomberg Business Week magazine this week.

0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:28.439
<v Speaker 1>If you haven't read it yet, I think you're the

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:33.280
<v Speaker 1>only one. Uh, it is on the Bloomberg terminal. It's

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:35.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of words to get through. Okay, if you

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:39.160
<v Speaker 1>haven't started reading it, yet you might be the only one. Um.

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.520
<v Speaker 1>We also have Joel Webber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.280
<v Speaker 1>with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Matt, I

0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:47.080
<v Speaker 1>want to hear more about your perceptions and conceptions of

0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:51.320
<v Speaker 1>crypto before going into this versus after doing the reporting

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.520
<v Speaker 1>and writing, Like you must have gone in with some

0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:57.800
<v Speaker 1>sort of notion and I'm wondering what that was and

0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:01.280
<v Speaker 1>and if it changed by the end. I wouldn't say

0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:07.040
<v Speaker 1>it changed true dramatically, and part of you know, like

0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:09.280
<v Speaker 1>like I do come like I don't. I don't come

0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:11.000
<v Speaker 1>to the story with an angle in the sense of

0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:13.520
<v Speaker 1>like I'm a crypto booster or I'm a you know,

0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:16.239
<v Speaker 1>crypto hater, And I kind of felt like that was

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:18.640
<v Speaker 1>the only way to do it right. Like I feel

0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 1>like I read a lot by crypto boosters that is

0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.919
<v Speaker 1>very enthusiastic, but like very kind of in the weeds

0:21:23.960 --> 0:21:26.160
<v Speaker 1>and jargon e and like and like, you know, sort

0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:28.359
<v Speaker 1>of assumes you're already a believer. And I read a

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:30.479
<v Speaker 1>lot of stuff by skeptics that is just angry, and

0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:33.000
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to sort of kind of find a middle ground.

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:35.119
<v Speaker 1>But like I do come from to it from the

0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:38.160
<v Speaker 1>perspective of I am a financial writer, and I'm most

0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:43.720
<v Speaker 1>interested in the crypto financial system, and so in writing this,

0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:48.159
<v Speaker 1>I found myself often charmed by the crypto financial system

0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:50.760
<v Speaker 1>and by like the cleverness of of like what people

0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>were doing in decentralized finance, and by the enthusiasm of

0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 1>people who work in crypto finance, not just about like

0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:03.720
<v Speaker 1>making a lot of money, but about how someone said

0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>to me, things just work in crypto, like you just

0:22:06.880 --> 0:22:09.639
<v Speaker 1>like if you want to like start trading stuff, you

0:22:09.720 --> 0:22:12.240
<v Speaker 1>like plug into the exchange and you start trading this stuff.

0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:18.080
<v Speaker 1>And in traditional finance, there's a lot more like uh process, right,

0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:20.240
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot more like you you like call a

0:22:20.280 --> 0:22:22.280
<v Speaker 1>bank and they send you a contract so you can

0:22:22.560 --> 0:22:24.840
<v Speaker 1>sign up an account, and then like you know, you

0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:26.560
<v Speaker 1>have to like call someone else to like hook over

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:28.159
<v Speaker 1>your data to the exchange, and it's just like a

0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 1>more manual, complicated, subjective, you know process where like insiders

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:39.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of get more access and in crypto everything is

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:44.119
<v Speaker 1>sort of straightforward and computerized, and like like that's like

0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:46.199
<v Speaker 1>what people told me, Like that's like that was the

0:22:46.240 --> 0:22:49.200
<v Speaker 1>thing they liked that they could sort of start a product,

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:52.640
<v Speaker 1>start trading something, come up with an idea, and implement

0:22:52.720 --> 0:22:56.040
<v Speaker 1>it without like sort of getting anyone's permission. Obviously there's

0:22:56.040 --> 0:22:57.720
<v Speaker 1>a flip side to them, which is that like you

0:22:57.720 --> 0:23:00.359
<v Speaker 1>don't get the regulators permission, and sometimes the product is like,

0:23:00.440 --> 0:23:05.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, theft. But m h, that was a sort

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:07.439
<v Speaker 1>of that was a thing that like, I was struck

0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:10.720
<v Speaker 1>by people's enthusiasm for that because I think that when

0:23:10.760 --> 0:23:13.879
<v Speaker 1>I was you know, when I've written my column about crypto,

0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 1>I've often thought of crypto as being, you know, people

0:23:16.600 --> 0:23:18.919
<v Speaker 1>call the block chain a slow database, and I think

0:23:18.960 --> 0:23:22.399
<v Speaker 1>of it as being a sort of like ah, like

0:23:24.240 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 1>like it like a difficult to use system in some

0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:31.240
<v Speaker 1>ways because it is unintuitive to outsiders. But I think

0:23:31.280 --> 0:23:33.520
<v Speaker 1>when you like, the people who use it find it

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:36.199
<v Speaker 1>so much easier to use than traditional finance because it

0:23:36.320 --> 0:23:40.520
<v Speaker 1>is you know, kind of like disintermediated and permissionless and

0:23:40.640 --> 0:23:43.160
<v Speaker 1>just like you can like read the documents and then

0:23:43.200 --> 0:23:47.320
<v Speaker 1>go do the thing. H haters are gonna hate, and

0:23:48.160 --> 0:23:55.880
<v Speaker 1>crypto haters will will ask, sure words, what's crypto for? Still, Yeah,

0:23:56.320 --> 0:24:02.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean I don't like I I really I share

0:24:02.440 --> 0:24:05.760
<v Speaker 1>that skepticism, you know, Like I I like there are

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:12.119
<v Speaker 1>like people tell stories about how crypto is changing our

0:24:12.160 --> 0:24:14.080
<v Speaker 1>will change your day to day life, and I often

0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:18.440
<v Speaker 1>find those stories not particularly compelling. Right, there's a lot

0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:22.120
<v Speaker 1>of like you could own a share in the bands

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:25.240
<v Speaker 1>you like and then if those bands become popular, you'll

0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>get rich. It's like why what like how is that

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 1>a thing? Um or there? Or like you know, you

0:24:30.320 --> 0:24:32.399
<v Speaker 1>can like own your data on the on the on,

0:24:32.560 --> 0:24:35.440
<v Speaker 1>like your social networks and you can get paid to

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:39.400
<v Speaker 1>serve ads to you like um, It's it's like it's

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.200
<v Speaker 1>like these stories of sort of like micropayments and like ownership,

0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:45.760
<v Speaker 1>like like sort of financializing everything that uh you know,

0:24:45.880 --> 0:24:47.639
<v Speaker 1>Like I'm a finance guy. I like that. I like

0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:49.800
<v Speaker 1>some I like a certain amount of financialization, but I

0:24:49.840 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 1>also like I spent a long time reading about like

0:24:54.600 --> 0:24:57.520
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna like sell equity in college students so that

0:24:57.560 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 1>you can like bet on their futures, and like you know,

0:25:01.280 --> 0:25:03.520
<v Speaker 1>now I'm like, okay, yeah, people, people are gonna keep

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:05.439
<v Speaker 1>writing that's ever gonna happen, right, Like there are some

0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:08.280
<v Speaker 1>things that that sort of resist financialization, and crypto is

0:25:08.280 --> 0:25:11.360
<v Speaker 1>like we're going to financialize everything at once, and that

0:25:11.560 --> 0:25:15.479
<v Speaker 1>seems implausible. To me. Um so in that sense, like

0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:18.280
<v Speaker 1>I am like, like, I think there's there's you know,

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:22.239
<v Speaker 1>potential like stories like that that will come true. But

0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:25.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm not super bullish. I'm like, we're gonna have a

0:25:25.560 --> 0:25:29.200
<v Speaker 1>coin for everything that you do in your life. Um

0:25:29.320 --> 0:25:32.760
<v Speaker 1>but uh, Matt, Matt, let me just ask you, because

0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:35.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, we lost what two trillion dollars in crypto wealth,

0:25:35.359 --> 0:25:38.639
<v Speaker 1>right that happened, and yet, as you point out in

0:25:39.040 --> 0:25:41.639
<v Speaker 1>your in the magazine, you know, it's not like the

0:25:41.640 --> 0:25:45.320
<v Speaker 1>rest of the financial markets or the economy came undone

0:25:45.359 --> 0:25:48.159
<v Speaker 1>because of that. So what is the meeting of it?

0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:49.879
<v Speaker 1>You know, what does that say about the future in

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:52.200
<v Speaker 1>terms of the value of crypto? Crypto and that First

0:25:52.240 --> 0:25:54.200
<v Speaker 1>of all, we're glad it didn't bring down the markets,

0:25:54.600 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 1>But I mean, what does it say about its real

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:59.840
<v Speaker 1>value going forward? Or maybe it doesn't. I don't know.

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:07.760
<v Speaker 1>Uh yeah, I mean I do think that. I mean,

0:26:07.760 --> 0:26:08.959
<v Speaker 1>first of all, we lost a lot more than two

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:13.160
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars of stock market wealth you know this year,

0:26:13.440 --> 0:26:23.800
<v Speaker 1>Like uh, Like, you know, like crypto whatever else it is,

0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:26.880
<v Speaker 1>is a very speculative asset class, right, Like people who

0:26:26.880 --> 0:26:30.480
<v Speaker 1>invest in crypto for the most part, are like, this

0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:32.359
<v Speaker 1>is a fun gamble more than they're like, this is

0:26:32.359 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>where I'm putting my life savings because it's like and

0:26:34.400 --> 0:26:36.720
<v Speaker 1>I promised me a study two percent return. So the

0:26:36.760 --> 0:26:39.720
<v Speaker 1>fact that it crashed, you know, people who were betting

0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:41.240
<v Speaker 1>on it going up it went down, but they could

0:26:41.240 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of afford to take that loss because it was

0:26:43.119 --> 0:26:45.960
<v Speaker 1>essentially a speculative asset. So that's one reason that it

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:48.160
<v Speaker 1>didn't really like ramified to the rest of the economy.

0:26:48.240 --> 0:26:50.160
<v Speaker 1>But the other reason is definitely that like you're not

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:53.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, financing your home or your you know, your

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:57.119
<v Speaker 1>business by like going to the crypto lender, and so

0:26:57.520 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 1>crypto is not super integrated into into like the financing

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:05.199
<v Speaker 1>of real world activity. So it is it is you know,

0:27:05.200 --> 0:27:08.040
<v Speaker 1>when it crashes, it's not like the crypto bank shuts

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:09.960
<v Speaker 1>down and you can't get a mortgage for your house,

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:12.600
<v Speaker 1>like you can still go to the regular bank. Um.

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:14.280
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I mean I think I've said that like

0:27:14.280 --> 0:27:22.520
<v Speaker 1>like to the if the next crypto financial crisis, because

0:27:22.520 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 1>there really was a crypto financial crisis this year with

0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:27.440
<v Speaker 1>like failing you know, lenders, If the next crypto financial

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:30.200
<v Speaker 1>crisis causes a slowdown in the real economy. Then you'll

0:27:30.240 --> 0:27:33.080
<v Speaker 1>be like, oh, Crypto arrived, Like Crypto is now like

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:36.680
<v Speaker 1>meaningfully integrated into everyone's lives such that when it crashes

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:39.360
<v Speaker 1>that affects the world. We're like, we're not quite there yet.

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:44.440
<v Speaker 1>So Matt, um, you know we do this every week, um, um,

0:27:44.440 --> 0:27:48.240
<v Speaker 1>wondering what's your next single topic issue takeover of the

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>magazine and and what kind of deadline I can give

0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:53.440
<v Speaker 1>you now that we do well, you know I'm gonna

0:27:53.480 --> 0:27:57.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna do a retrospective on Elon Musk. I'll go,

0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:00.479
<v Speaker 1>I'm never gonna write it again. Yeah, it right right

0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:04.920
<v Speaker 1>my control. I mean, I guess the question is kind

0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:07.479
<v Speaker 1>of where the story goes from here? To me, that

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:10.840
<v Speaker 1>is the most interesting part about Crypto, right, And I

0:28:10.880 --> 0:28:13.359
<v Speaker 1>won't even pretend to know, And that wasn't really the

0:28:13.359 --> 0:28:17.480
<v Speaker 1>goal of the project. Um, although I think Matt poses

0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:19.119
<v Speaker 1>some really and I don't want to give away the

0:28:19.160 --> 0:28:22.240
<v Speaker 1>ending because he just it's a really majestic way that

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:26.320
<v Speaker 1>I think he wrestles with this question. Um. And boy,

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:29.960
<v Speaker 1>I will just say, having been at editor of Business

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:32.320
<v Speaker 1>Week for a while, worked at Bloomberg for ten years,

0:28:32.800 --> 0:28:35.960
<v Speaker 1>it's just like this story makes you just want to

0:28:36.040 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>get a bowl of popcorn. Uh, read the issue to

0:28:39.880 --> 0:28:42.520
<v Speaker 1>make sense of everything that we've all lived through, and

0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:45.040
<v Speaker 1>also just keep eating that popcorn to see what happens.

0:28:45.080 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Like I'm really deeply curious. And that was the curiosity

0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:53.560
<v Speaker 1>that I think Matt infused UH into this story. And

0:28:53.920 --> 0:28:56.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're we're just honored to publish it. Matt.

0:28:56.240 --> 0:28:57.800
<v Speaker 1>You should know. I tell you should know that in

0:28:57.800 --> 0:28:59.920
<v Speaker 1>the news room, people have been hunting down for the issue.

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:03.000
<v Speaker 1>We typically have them. There's so much bitcoin you've got

0:29:03.040 --> 0:29:05.640
<v Speaker 1>to give me. But I'm just telling you, everybody wants

0:29:05.640 --> 0:29:07.520
<v Speaker 1>the issue to read, and it's like we've been like,

0:29:07.600 --> 0:29:10.320
<v Speaker 1>do you have the issue? Do you have the issue? Um? Matt,

0:29:10.360 --> 0:29:12.280
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. I really mean it like I've

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:14.680
<v Speaker 1>learned so much and I think everybody who reads it does.

0:29:15.040 --> 0:29:17.000
<v Speaker 1>It is called The Crypto Story, Your Guide to what

0:29:17.080 --> 0:29:19.000
<v Speaker 1>it does, what it means, and why it still matters,

0:29:19.040 --> 0:29:23.080
<v Speaker 1>Written by Bloomberg Opinions Matt Luvin. Check it out. As

0:29:23.080 --> 0:29:25.240
<v Speaker 1>we said, it's the entire issue of Bloomberg Big Business

0:29:25.280 --> 0:29:28.480
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine and our thanks to Jill Webber, editor of

0:29:28.520 --> 0:29:31.560
<v Speaker 1>the magazine, who I guess it's something to do with small,

0:29:31.680 --> 0:29:35.880
<v Speaker 1>small Matten and Pat get the most props. Well, Joel,

0:29:35.880 --> 0:29:37.640
<v Speaker 1>thank you for joining us. Joel Ever, the editor of

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:40.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week, with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

0:29:40.960 --> 0:29:45.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:48.920
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so,

0:29:48.960 --> 0:29:51.440
<v Speaker 1>speaking of metal platforms, they talked an awful lot about

0:29:51.480 --> 0:29:54.440
<v Speaker 1>the metaverse this week and continuing to spend money on it,

0:29:54.520 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>and you know, our next guest has some real smart

0:29:56.720 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 1>thoughts about it when it comes to shopping in the metaverse.

0:29:59.120 --> 0:30:01.400
<v Speaker 1>We please have back with us, Nih has saying founder

0:30:01.440 --> 0:30:03.680
<v Speaker 1>and a CEO of Obsess. It's a shop of a

0:30:03.920 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 1>virtual store platform, and it offers consumers a way that

0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:10.160
<v Speaker 1>they can shop and experience their products online and in

0:30:10.200 --> 0:30:11.959
<v Speaker 1>the metaverse. Nia, good to have you back with us.

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:14.520
<v Speaker 1>How are you? Thank you so much for having me

0:30:14.560 --> 0:30:18.360
<v Speaker 1>to encou So when we think about established brands in

0:30:18.400 --> 0:30:20.640
<v Speaker 1>the metaverse, should we think about this as a way

0:30:20.680 --> 0:30:23.800
<v Speaker 1>to kind of like the way that companies started offering

0:30:23.800 --> 0:30:27.320
<v Speaker 1>their products online. You know, instead of sending you catalogs

0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:30.240
<v Speaker 1>twenty years ago, you could go to you know, I

0:30:30.240 --> 0:30:32.960
<v Speaker 1>don't know name the company Patagonia dot com and actually

0:30:33.040 --> 0:30:35.000
<v Speaker 1>look at a jacket there is this. This is the

0:30:35.040 --> 0:30:39.080
<v Speaker 1>same thing happening now in terms of the metaverse. Yes,

0:30:39.120 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 1>absolutely so. The way, like you know, we define the

0:30:41.920 --> 0:30:44.840
<v Speaker 1>metaverse is that it is the next generation of the Internet.

0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:48.600
<v Speaker 1>Like if you think about their websites started in the nineties, right,

0:30:48.640 --> 0:30:50.840
<v Speaker 1>they were very plain, they had mostly text, and then

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:54.040
<v Speaker 1>we added images, and then we added videos. Um and

0:30:54.120 --> 0:30:56.920
<v Speaker 1>now with the hardware capabilities that are there in the

0:30:56.960 --> 0:30:59.600
<v Speaker 1>market as well as our you know, network speeds pushing

0:30:59.600 --> 0:31:02.760
<v Speaker 1>into I G and more, it's just possible to do

0:31:03.080 --> 0:31:08.280
<v Speaker 1>much richer graphical interfaces online. And that's really what's leading

0:31:08.280 --> 0:31:10.320
<v Speaker 1>to the metaverse, which is a three D version of

0:31:10.360 --> 0:31:13.800
<v Speaker 1>the Internet. Um So, what you're seeing brands do now

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:16.840
<v Speaker 1>is that they're starting to create these more three D

0:31:16.920 --> 0:31:20.719
<v Speaker 1>immersive experiences that are actually closer to the real world, right,

0:31:20.800 --> 0:31:23.040
<v Speaker 1>because the real world is three D, it's all around us.

0:31:23.120 --> 0:31:25.040
<v Speaker 1>We don't look at the real world in a database

0:31:25.120 --> 0:31:28.440
<v Speaker 1>like we do most of online shopping today. Um So,

0:31:28.480 --> 0:31:30.840
<v Speaker 1>it's just that technology is now getting to the point

0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:33.640
<v Speaker 1>that that's possible, and that this is all happening on

0:31:33.720 --> 0:31:37.560
<v Speaker 1>mobile devices and on desktop computers. You don't require like

0:31:37.760 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 1>we are headsets and you know, to put goggles. It's

0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:42.640
<v Speaker 1>all happening on the devices that you already have. I

0:31:42.640 --> 0:31:44.840
<v Speaker 1>try to think where this could go. Yeah, And I

0:31:44.880 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 1>think about, you know, could I essentially have a body

0:31:48.320 --> 0:31:51.320
<v Speaker 1>scan of me so that there's an avatar that with

0:31:51.400 --> 0:31:54.400
<v Speaker 1>my dimensions exactly, and I go to the metaverse and

0:31:54.400 --> 0:31:56.960
<v Speaker 1>I go shopping at the mall or go shopping down

0:31:57.520 --> 0:31:59.880
<v Speaker 1>you know street in New York City Pappatoo shops, and

0:32:00.000 --> 0:32:04.560
<v Speaker 1>I can actually try on close with the right digital dimensions,

0:32:04.640 --> 0:32:07.520
<v Speaker 1>and I can really get a feel of how things fit. Like,

0:32:07.680 --> 0:32:10.400
<v Speaker 1>is there's something there that makes me want to do

0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:11.960
<v Speaker 1>because I gotta tell you, I like living in the

0:32:11.960 --> 0:32:15.480
<v Speaker 1>real life. So this idea of shopping, you know, I

0:32:15.800 --> 0:32:17.400
<v Speaker 1>just can't get my head around it. So I'm trying

0:32:17.400 --> 0:32:20.680
<v Speaker 1>to think, is there some super level that will get

0:32:20.800 --> 0:32:24.320
<v Speaker 1>us there? Yeah, So two pass to that. First of all,

0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:27.520
<v Speaker 1>what you described with you know, having kind of your

0:32:27.520 --> 0:32:32.120
<v Speaker 1>avatar in the metavers and having your exact dimensions and

0:32:32.120 --> 0:32:35.640
<v Speaker 1>trying on clothes, that's absolutely sort of the holy grail

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:38.240
<v Speaker 1>of the future of fashion shopping. We are not there

0:32:38.360 --> 0:32:41.000
<v Speaker 1>yet in terms of having the full technology to be

0:32:41.320 --> 0:32:44.200
<v Speaker 1>able to have that body scan easily or try on

0:32:44.280 --> 0:32:47.600
<v Speaker 1>clothes easily, because not all brands have three D models

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 1>of their products yet. But that is the direction that

0:32:50.400 --> 0:32:52.840
<v Speaker 1>we are heading into. Um. But the second part I

0:32:52.880 --> 0:32:56.960
<v Speaker 1>would say is like, think about the things that we

0:32:57.000 --> 0:32:59.560
<v Speaker 1>are doing with brands in the metabors today is not

0:32:59.800 --> 0:33:02.880
<v Speaker 1>like you are going into some other world and it's

0:33:02.920 --> 0:33:05.920
<v Speaker 1>actually not that foreign. So it is really an improvement

0:33:06.160 --> 0:33:09.560
<v Speaker 1>over two Day's online shopping interface, which is good for

0:33:10.040 --> 0:33:11.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you want to if you know exactly

0:33:11.800 --> 0:33:14.120
<v Speaker 1>what you want to buy, and you can search and

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 1>filter and get to it and it's very efficient, right,

0:33:16.840 --> 0:33:19.400
<v Speaker 1>But when you go shopping in real life and stores,

0:33:19.480 --> 0:33:22.120
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of discovery and you're almost like it's

0:33:22.120 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 1>an entertainment experience because you're getting that inspiration from the

0:33:25.400 --> 0:33:28.880
<v Speaker 1>brand and um, you know their stories. So yeah, it

0:33:28.920 --> 0:33:30.480
<v Speaker 1>makes me sorry to interrupt it, It It makes me. It

0:33:30.680 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of reminds me of the way that we saw

0:33:33.400 --> 0:33:36.480
<v Speaker 1>news transition from newspapers to online and the way that

0:33:36.560 --> 0:33:39.400
<v Speaker 1>some people still really like to hold onto a newspaper,

0:33:40.080 --> 0:33:43.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, on a Sunday, because they might actually see

0:33:43.800 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 1>or encounter an article that they wouldn't necessarily click on

0:33:46.280 --> 0:33:49.000
<v Speaker 1>if it were presented to them h on a web

0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:51.200
<v Speaker 1>page for example, So how do you replicate that in

0:33:51.360 --> 0:33:55.440
<v Speaker 1>the metaverse? Yeah, absolutely, So that's exactly what the brands

0:33:55.440 --> 0:33:57.239
<v Speaker 1>that we are working with are doing, is that they

0:33:57.240 --> 0:34:00.840
<v Speaker 1>are creating these UM virtual and I means that again,

0:34:00.960 --> 0:34:03.400
<v Speaker 1>it's very easy for you to access. It's not like

0:34:03.480 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 1>you're going into the metaborse and you don't have to

0:34:06.040 --> 0:34:08.600
<v Speaker 1>become an amator if you don't want to. It's really

0:34:08.640 --> 0:34:12.480
<v Speaker 1>a different interface for exploring products in which UM you know,

0:34:12.560 --> 0:34:15.560
<v Speaker 1>you can discover things that you weren't necessarily like looking for.

0:34:15.719 --> 0:34:18.080
<v Speaker 1>And we actually see that from the data, is that

0:34:18.160 --> 0:34:21.480
<v Speaker 1>customers are buying more in these environments because similar to

0:34:21.520 --> 0:34:24.080
<v Speaker 1>a retail store, you might just come across something that

0:34:24.120 --> 0:34:27.520
<v Speaker 1>you weren't necessarily looking for, and it's ultimately a more

0:34:27.600 --> 0:34:31.200
<v Speaker 1>intuitive shopping interface because while most brands come to us

0:34:31.239 --> 0:34:34.560
<v Speaker 1>to target a younger audience who's super used to gaming right,

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:37.440
<v Speaker 1>and this interface is very similar to gaming UM in

0:34:37.560 --> 0:34:39.680
<v Speaker 1>terms of moving to a three D environment. But then

0:34:39.680 --> 0:34:42.760
<v Speaker 1>we also have customers that are high and luxury brands

0:34:42.800 --> 0:34:46.280
<v Speaker 1>and their typical demographic is much older and they're seeing

0:34:46.560 --> 0:34:50.080
<v Speaker 1>they're seeing great results because well, ultimately it's very intuitive.

0:34:50.160 --> 0:34:52.600
<v Speaker 1>It's like, you know what you do in real life. Nia,

0:34:52.680 --> 0:34:53.920
<v Speaker 1>We get a round, but we'll check in with you

0:34:54.000 --> 0:34:56.960
<v Speaker 1>real soon. Nia, seeing founder and CEO of Obsessed, joining

0:34:57.040 --> 0:35:04.719
<v Speaker 1>s via zoom from New York City and the Michael Jurnal. Yeah,

0:35:04.800 --> 0:35:06.799
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,

0:35:08.160 --> 0:35:16.320
<v Speaker 1>honey leaved gravels. I want to drive. Its good question.

0:35:17.040 --> 0:35:26.520
<v Speaker 1>Drive is the drive to the clothes on Bloomberg Radio.

0:35:27.200 --> 0:35:29.960
<v Speaker 1>All right, everybuddy, we are getting ready to wrap up

0:35:30.000 --> 0:35:34.239
<v Speaker 1>the last fully glow October trading, which is pretty remarkable.

0:35:34.280 --> 0:35:37.799
<v Speaker 1>And look at the rally and we are yeah, oh yeah,

0:35:37.960 --> 0:35:40.560
<v Speaker 1>November stress this week. I mean not on Monday, but right,

0:35:40.640 --> 0:35:43.839
<v Speaker 1>thirty days has September full week. Yeah, so we still

0:35:43.840 --> 0:35:45.360
<v Speaker 1>got one more Yeah, we got one more day of

0:35:45.400 --> 0:35:48.799
<v Speaker 1>launch at the office. But look at the rally we

0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 1>had it. No, today is the last day. Yeah, okay,

0:35:52.080 --> 0:35:53.840
<v Speaker 1>all right, we're kind of all over the place. But

0:35:53.880 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 1>that's the kind of week it hasn't been. But as

0:35:56.680 --> 0:35:59.160
<v Speaker 1>Charlie mentioned, stocks holding out of their dames. Let's get

0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:01.200
<v Speaker 1>into it with Michael shell, An, executive director in chief

0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:03.839
<v Speaker 1>at Messman officer at High Tower, r DM Financial Group

0:36:04.120 --> 0:36:06.759
<v Speaker 1>joining us once again on the phone from Westport, Connecticut. Michael,

0:36:06.760 --> 0:36:08.359
<v Speaker 1>good to have you back with us. How you doing,

0:36:08.880 --> 0:36:12.040
<v Speaker 1>Thanks very much, pleasure to be here. So, UM, are

0:36:12.040 --> 0:36:15.520
<v Speaker 1>we out of the woods? Well? This week has certainly

0:36:15.520 --> 0:36:17.719
<v Speaker 1>been an impressive rally. UM. I think you have to

0:36:17.719 --> 0:36:20.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of step back a little bit. The markets bottom

0:36:20.440 --> 0:36:22.799
<v Speaker 1>around October thirteenth or so, so this is sort of

0:36:22.800 --> 0:36:25.880
<v Speaker 1>the fourth multi week rally that we've had in this

0:36:25.920 --> 0:36:29.120
<v Speaker 1>bear market that started back in January, and when the

0:36:29.200 --> 0:36:33.280
<v Speaker 1>markets hit their lows October, I think sentiment was really

0:36:33.320 --> 0:36:37.000
<v Speaker 1>pretty negative and a couple other things have contributed. Recently,

0:36:37.000 --> 0:36:38.719
<v Speaker 1>There's been a little bit of a pullback in the dollar,

0:36:38.800 --> 0:36:41.960
<v Speaker 1>which has been super strong this year, and interest rates

0:36:41.960 --> 0:36:43.760
<v Speaker 1>have started to pull back a little bit as well.

0:36:44.280 --> 0:36:47.080
<v Speaker 1>So next week will be really interesting because the Fed

0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:49.840
<v Speaker 1>meets October sorry November one and second, and there's a

0:36:49.840 --> 0:36:52.600
<v Speaker 1>lot of anticipation of what they will or won't say

0:36:52.640 --> 0:36:55.960
<v Speaker 1>and whether they'll start to make their shift. But this

0:36:56.040 --> 0:36:59.879
<v Speaker 1>has certainly been an impressive rally so far. UM. One

0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:03.040
<v Speaker 1>thing just to mention is that the TAO, interestingly after

0:37:03.080 --> 0:37:05.560
<v Speaker 1>today is the first of the major indices to move

0:37:05.600 --> 0:37:08.839
<v Speaker 1>back above their key two day moving averages. So that's

0:37:08.840 --> 0:37:11.879
<v Speaker 1>something a lot of investors watched, separating a longer term

0:37:11.960 --> 0:37:14.480
<v Speaker 1>rally versus a short term rally. None of the other

0:37:14.520 --> 0:37:16.799
<v Speaker 1>major markets have done that, but that's certainly something to

0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 1>to monitor going forward. So sorry, Carol, So we could

0:37:22.080 --> 0:37:23.120
<v Speaker 1>be out of the woods when it comes to the

0:37:23.160 --> 0:37:25.520
<v Speaker 1>Dow because that technical, but proceed with caution. I mean,

0:37:25.520 --> 0:37:28.520
<v Speaker 1>what's the takeaway there? Well, I think it's certainly an

0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:31.560
<v Speaker 1>encouraging sign when the markets, when the different industries move

0:37:31.560 --> 0:37:35.520
<v Speaker 1>above the moving average. Historically, at least, that helps separate

0:37:35.800 --> 0:37:38.680
<v Speaker 1>a short term move from a longer term, more sustainable move.

0:37:39.120 --> 0:37:40.719
<v Speaker 1>But I think in terms of whether we're out of

0:37:40.760 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 1>the woods, I think it's a little, certainly, in our opinion,

0:37:43.120 --> 0:37:45.279
<v Speaker 1>a little bit too early to say that. If you

0:37:45.320 --> 0:37:47.440
<v Speaker 1>look at some of the economic data, and I think

0:37:47.480 --> 0:37:49.680
<v Speaker 1>it's really important to keep an eye in the consumer,

0:37:49.719 --> 0:37:52.840
<v Speaker 1>for example, because that represents two thirds of the economy.

0:37:53.000 --> 0:37:55.400
<v Speaker 1>So on the positive side, looking at the consumer, uh,

0:37:55.560 --> 0:37:58.799
<v Speaker 1>you have the lowest unemployment since nine and you have

0:37:58.840 --> 0:38:02.080
<v Speaker 1>wages growing at five scent, but that's being offset by

0:38:02.160 --> 0:38:05.600
<v Speaker 1>higher inflation and rising rates, which are affecting the equity

0:38:05.640 --> 0:38:09.680
<v Speaker 1>and housing market. So the consumer appears to be pretty resilient,

0:38:09.760 --> 0:38:12.080
<v Speaker 1>and you know, that sort of fits in with whether

0:38:12.120 --> 0:38:14.640
<v Speaker 1>we're in a recession or going into a recession, and

0:38:14.719 --> 0:38:17.920
<v Speaker 1>so I think there's still some uncertainty about that and

0:38:17.960 --> 0:38:20.360
<v Speaker 1>what the said will be doing at their next meeting.

0:38:20.600 --> 0:38:22.160
<v Speaker 1>It's funny too that you mentioned the DOW. I mean,

0:38:22.200 --> 0:38:24.000
<v Speaker 1>I think I feel like we live in a world

0:38:24.040 --> 0:38:27.480
<v Speaker 1>where people kind of blow the towel to the side

0:38:27.600 --> 0:38:29.440
<v Speaker 1>and think about, Okay, what's the SMP doing, what's the

0:38:29.480 --> 0:38:32.879
<v Speaker 1>NAZAC one hundred doing. Um, So, how do you kind

0:38:32.920 --> 0:38:36.520
<v Speaker 1>of factor and what's going on with the doubt of

0:38:36.600 --> 0:38:39.160
<v Speaker 1>it back above its technical move, you know, above its

0:38:39.200 --> 0:38:42.000
<v Speaker 1>two day Michael, versus what we're seeing on the SMP

0:38:42.160 --> 0:38:44.880
<v Speaker 1>and the NAZAC, which is much more representative of a

0:38:44.960 --> 0:38:47.440
<v Speaker 1>broader part of the market. Yeah, that's a great question.

0:38:47.480 --> 0:38:49.960
<v Speaker 1>And if you're in the financial markets like we are

0:38:50.040 --> 0:38:54.080
<v Speaker 1>every day, most investors follow, most individual investors follow the doubt.

0:38:54.120 --> 0:38:56.279
<v Speaker 1>That's what gets all the headlines you see live on

0:38:56.320 --> 0:38:59.800
<v Speaker 1>the newspapers and on the news. But people follow the

0:38:59.840 --> 0:39:02.000
<v Speaker 1>mark gets on a regular basis, really follow the s

0:39:02.040 --> 0:39:04.680
<v Speaker 1>and P five hundred and one of the things we're seeing,

0:39:04.680 --> 0:39:07.160
<v Speaker 1>which is really interesting, is I think you're starting to

0:39:07.160 --> 0:39:09.880
<v Speaker 1>see in the past couple of weeks a shift, a

0:39:09.960 --> 0:39:13.040
<v Speaker 1>shift unfortunately out of technology, which has been the market

0:39:13.120 --> 0:39:15.480
<v Speaker 1>leader from much of the past decade or so. And

0:39:15.520 --> 0:39:19.000
<v Speaker 1>the shift is out of out of technology stocks. We

0:39:19.080 --> 0:39:21.600
<v Speaker 1>already started to see some of the money losing high

0:39:21.680 --> 0:39:25.360
<v Speaker 1>valuation stocks get hits starting in two thowy one, but

0:39:25.480 --> 0:39:28.040
<v Speaker 1>the shift is For example, if you look at the

0:39:28.120 --> 0:39:31.439
<v Speaker 1>equal weighted S and P five hundred this week, that's

0:39:31.520 --> 0:39:35.200
<v Speaker 1>up about five point four, while the sm P five hundred,

0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:38.160
<v Speaker 1>which is market cap weighted, is up just three nine.

0:39:38.880 --> 0:39:41.240
<v Speaker 1>So not a big difference, and it's only this week,

0:39:41.920 --> 0:39:44.040
<v Speaker 1>but I think that's an interesting trend that will have

0:39:44.080 --> 0:39:46.239
<v Speaker 1>to watch heading into the end of this year and

0:39:46.320 --> 0:39:48.960
<v Speaker 1>next year. Can I just look, you know, it's funny.

0:39:49.000 --> 0:39:51.000
<v Speaker 1>I was just kind of picking apart the marketer as

0:39:51.040 --> 0:39:54.560
<v Speaker 1>you're talking. Industrials are up almost seven percent this week.

0:39:54.640 --> 0:40:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Utilities are up, yeah, I mean real estate, finance souls.

0:40:00.520 --> 0:40:03.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, most of the ten of the eleven major

0:40:03.080 --> 0:40:05.879
<v Speaker 1>industry groups in the SP five are higher. But it's

0:40:06.080 --> 0:40:10.560
<v Speaker 1>consumer staples, financials, real estate, utilities, industrials at the top.

0:40:11.160 --> 0:40:14.200
<v Speaker 1>Um what does that tell you, Michael Well, I think

0:40:14.200 --> 0:40:17.000
<v Speaker 1>it's sort of a mixed bag. Industrials have been approving recently,

0:40:17.040 --> 0:40:19.520
<v Speaker 1>We've seen some better relative strength than some of those stocks.

0:40:19.880 --> 0:40:23.160
<v Speaker 1>I think investors are still trying to figure out if

0:40:23.160 --> 0:40:25.480
<v Speaker 1>we're going to be going into a recession or not,

0:40:25.960 --> 0:40:27.400
<v Speaker 1>and if we are in a recession, is it going

0:40:27.440 --> 0:40:29.600
<v Speaker 1>to be a mild recession, which to us seems like

0:40:29.640 --> 0:40:32.399
<v Speaker 1>the most likely scenario because you don't have the kind

0:40:32.400 --> 0:40:35.520
<v Speaker 1>of major imbalances this time around that you did, for example,

0:40:35.520 --> 0:40:39.160
<v Speaker 1>in the banks going into two thousand eight. UM consumers generally,

0:40:39.440 --> 0:40:42.680
<v Speaker 1>although consumers the household savings rate is down to I

0:40:42.719 --> 0:40:46.759
<v Speaker 1>think about three point four percent, households in general don't

0:40:46.800 --> 0:40:50.600
<v Speaker 1>seem to be UM. Household savings in general seem to

0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:54.200
<v Speaker 1>be okay. Household balance sheets seemed to be okay. UM.

0:40:54.280 --> 0:40:56.160
<v Speaker 1>The one thing that we're starting to watch is housing

0:40:56.200 --> 0:40:58.360
<v Speaker 1>is starting to come down, and that's interest sensitive, so

0:40:58.440 --> 0:41:02.560
<v Speaker 1>that makes sense. But in terms of the sectors UM.

0:41:02.640 --> 0:41:04.520
<v Speaker 1>One of the other things to watch, for example, is

0:41:04.560 --> 0:41:06.560
<v Speaker 1>small caps, which has done well, and that's sort of

0:41:06.960 --> 0:41:09.120
<v Speaker 1>small caps would do better if we're coming out of

0:41:09.120 --> 0:41:11.919
<v Speaker 1>a recession, and it's sort of more speculation and people

0:41:11.920 --> 0:41:14.759
<v Speaker 1>are more optimistic. So I think it's too early to

0:41:14.800 --> 0:41:18.400
<v Speaker 1>sound the all clear, and it'll be interesting, especially to

0:41:18.440 --> 0:41:20.680
<v Speaker 1>see what the Fed says next week and what the

0:41:20.680 --> 0:41:23.879
<v Speaker 1>employment numbers come out as next week as well's week

0:41:23.920 --> 0:41:26.759
<v Speaker 1>next week. Yeah, do you expect the Fed to, I

0:41:26.800 --> 0:41:28.719
<v Speaker 1>don't know, give us some sort of guidance that they're

0:41:28.760 --> 0:41:33.120
<v Speaker 1>still looking at that they're considering basis points for December, Well,

0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:35.319
<v Speaker 1>I think it's I think seventy five basis points for

0:41:35.560 --> 0:41:38.000
<v Speaker 1>November is pretty much baked in the cake. But I

0:41:38.000 --> 0:41:40.360
<v Speaker 1>think for December that's an interesting that will be a

0:41:40.360 --> 0:41:43.040
<v Speaker 1>more interesting meeting. For this meeting, we don't have the

0:41:43.080 --> 0:41:45.239
<v Speaker 1>inflation data in front of us. We had already the

0:41:45.239 --> 0:41:48.760
<v Speaker 1>inflation data that came out today. For example, the feds

0:41:48.840 --> 0:41:53.480
<v Speaker 1>favorite core PC index actually rose month over month to

0:41:53.680 --> 0:41:56.080
<v Speaker 1>five point one pc, which is the highest level since

0:41:56.120 --> 0:41:58.399
<v Speaker 1>I think back in March when it was five point

0:41:58.440 --> 0:42:01.120
<v Speaker 1>four p But it the FED me eating next next

0:42:01.160 --> 0:42:03.239
<v Speaker 1>week or in two weeks, I think the keys to

0:42:03.320 --> 0:42:06.160
<v Speaker 1>watch will be one, Uh, does the Fed say we're

0:42:06.160 --> 0:42:09.360
<v Speaker 1>making progress on inflation, which would be a signal that

0:42:09.480 --> 0:42:12.239
<v Speaker 1>they're shift starting to shift policy, Or two do they

0:42:12.280 --> 0:42:15.680
<v Speaker 1>say that inflation remains higher than we'd like, which continues

0:42:15.719 --> 0:42:18.319
<v Speaker 1>to be the party line in recent weeks and will

0:42:18.360 --> 0:42:22.120
<v Speaker 1>probably indicate a seventy five basis point hike in December

0:42:22.160 --> 0:42:24.040
<v Speaker 1>may be more likely. All Right, we're gonna leave it

0:42:24.040 --> 0:42:26.439
<v Speaker 1>on that, hey, Michael, have a great weekend. Um, Thank

0:42:26.480 --> 0:42:29.840
<v Speaker 1>you so much, really appreciate it. Michael Sheldon, executive director

0:42:29.840 --> 0:42:33.200
<v Speaker 1>and chief investment Officer at High Tower r DM Financial Group,

0:42:33.239 --> 0:42:35.799
<v Speaker 1>based in Westport, and that's where we found him on

0:42:35.840 --> 0:42:39.760
<v Speaker 1>the phone on this Friday. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:42:39.800 --> 0:42:43.440
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:42:43.520 --> 0:42:45.359
<v Speaker 1>dot com, and you can also listen to our radio

0:42:45.400 --> 0:42:47.960
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0:42:48.080 --> 0:42:50.440
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