Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing
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Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us
Speaker 1: on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So much to get to.
Speaker 1: We talked about President Biden signaling progress to lifting a
Speaker 1: ban on travel from Europe, so we're hoping that, you know, borders.
Speaker 1: I know you're looking at me like, how do we
Speaker 1: do that well. At the same time, COVID's daily US
Speaker 1: Death Toll Carol tops Guns, cars and blue combined daily
Speaker 1: that headline daily right, I understand for daily right, this
Speaker 1: is what's happening now we're seeing the increasing cases we
Speaker 1: talked about l A, let's just get right to it
Speaker 1: with Dr Ian lous Bader. He joins us every Friday
Speaker 1: gives us a COVID ground up what we need to
Speaker 1: focus on his clinical professor of medicine and yu landgown.
Speaker 1: He is on the phone in New York City. Ian,
Speaker 1: good to have you here with us. How are you good? Good?
Speaker 1: Always the pleasure, guys, hopefully providing some useful information we need.
Speaker 1: We need useful information because we're feeling a little stressed
Speaker 1: out again. Um, help us make some sense of these headlines.
Speaker 1: So just to review, Delta is one of a number
Speaker 1: of variants of our old acquaintance COVID nineteen. And really
Speaker 1: delta variant is a mutation or several mutations in the
Speaker 1: spike protein. So when that happens, Uh, that spike protein
Speaker 1: is really where the COVID virus attaches to ourselves the
Speaker 1: H two receptors. And unfortunately, as that mutates, it can
Speaker 1: attach more aggressively and it can escape even uh sometimes
Speaker 1: people who are vaccinated. Certainly we're seeing a big rise
Speaker 1: in people who are unvaccinated, really primarily young people, and
Speaker 1: in a variety of states throughout the South and part
Speaker 1: of the Moodwest. Uh, it does not appear to be
Speaker 1: more deadly. In other words, it's not it's not killing
Speaker 1: more people other than numerically meaning the more people that
Speaker 1: get COVID, whether of any strain, whether it's the initial
Speaker 1: alpha strain from the UK or any of the other strains. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the more people that get infected statistically, if it's less
Speaker 1: than one percent that get hospitalized, the bigger the number,
Speaker 1: the bigger the denominator, you know, than the bigger the
Speaker 1: number of people who do get admitted in the people
Speaker 1: who die from it. Well, that's what we're already seeing.
Speaker 1: We just learned from the CDC that we're seeing seven
Speaker 1: day average for hospital admissions nationwide rising thirty six percent
Speaker 1: to nine daily deaths. Dr lust Vader jumping two hundred
Speaker 1: and eleven per day. How should we think about this
Speaker 1: if we've been vaccinated, Because here we are, having received
Speaker 1: vaccines so many people, tens of millions of Americans, and
Speaker 1: they're living in places where they're they're going back to work,
Speaker 1: not wearing masks, writing public transit, maybe wearing masks on
Speaker 1: public transit, but they're back to life as usual, and
Speaker 1: it seems like this is a big setback. You know,
Speaker 1: there's no question that that this is a setback. It's
Speaker 1: hard to say how big at this point. Certainly the
Speaker 1: vaccines at this point, you know, certainly the the mRNA,
Speaker 1: the Maduna Advisor vaccines do provide a lot of protection,
Speaker 1: certainly for severe disease. Meaning most everyone who is vaccinated,
Speaker 1: even if they get a breakthrough infection, are not being
Speaker 1: hospitalized and not dying. It's a very very small prevent
Speaker 1: So the vaccines still now are very effective. We do
Speaker 1: think the antibody levels are high. The problem is that
Speaker 1: the delta variant, that that the mutations in the spike
Speaker 1: protein make it less sensitive to the antibodies that we
Speaker 1: form and also make it a little less sensitive to
Speaker 1: some of the other like monoclonal antibo the therapies that
Speaker 1: that we are giving. So the concentration of the virus
Speaker 1: in the blood and the secretions caught and nasal secretions
Speaker 1: gets very high, very early on. That's one of the
Speaker 1: one of the mutations the delta has, so it's more contagious. Uh.
Speaker 1: People don't feel sick, but by the time they feel sick,
Speaker 1: they already have a very high concentration. UH. And so
Speaker 1: it's definitely a challenge. But for the people who have
Speaker 1: been vaccinated, very very low risk of hospitalization. They may
Speaker 1: get breakthroughs. It's under ten percent of people will get breakthroughs.
Speaker 1: So far, the antibodies do seem to keep it in check.
Speaker 1: You know, could it mutate further and be more difficult
Speaker 1: another variant. It is possible, But at this point, the
Speaker 1: people who do need to worry are the people who
Speaker 1: are not vaccinated. And since we don't have great treatment,
Speaker 1: even the monoclonal antibodies that we're using, like them lavid
Speaker 1: um or other alternative therapiest people talk about iver met
Speaker 1: and some of the other the vaccinations make the most
Speaker 1: sense for the people who are vaccine hesitant because that
Speaker 1: at this point really provides the best protection against the
Speaker 1: delta variant and ultimately against hospitalization. Because you said, the
Speaker 1: delta variant not more deadly than other strains. Are you
Speaker 1: you're saying for those who are vaccinated, But if you're
Speaker 1: not vaccinated, is it more is it deadlier? It is
Speaker 1: not more deadly. In other words, it doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: close more of this cytokine storm. But if you're infecting
Speaker 1: a lot more people, even if it's that smaller percent,
Speaker 1: you know, less than one percent get hospitalized. If you're
Speaker 1: infecting more people, that one percent gets to be a
Speaker 1: growing number of hospitalizations. You know, one of the stories
Speaker 1: we've been talking about here in New York City, the Yankees,
Speaker 1: you know, and you know we're seeing just even sometimes
Speaker 1: it's cases of people who have gotten the vaccine, and
Speaker 1: you know, we're all of a sudden feeling like there's
Speaker 1: this potential for once again some super spreader events. Are
Speaker 1: you anticipating that we will see that again? You know,
Speaker 1: I don't think so, there there is. I don't think
Speaker 1: people who are vaccinated at this point need to wear masks. Uh,
Speaker 1: certainly not outdoors. If people are insecure, or you're older,
Speaker 1: or you have underlying infections or or immune compromise, sure
Speaker 1: wear the mask. The Yankees and other people who do
Speaker 1: seem despite vaccines, who they recover virus, they're very low symptoms.
Speaker 1: They may have a mild claw for cold, they may
Speaker 1: have a breakthrough. Uh, could they potentially spread It could be,
Speaker 1: But we're not seeing this on a widespread basis at
Speaker 1: this point, and hopefully that won't occur. Do you think,
Speaker 1: just in the last fifteen seconds here, Dr les Bader,
Speaker 1: do you think we're gonna have to wear masks again
Speaker 1: here in New York city in the fall. I don't
Speaker 1: see that right now. I think it's possible deeper into
Speaker 1: the winter, but certainly not in the next few months,
Speaker 1: given our low level of infection in the Triestite area. Right,
Speaker 1: all right, stick around, We're gonna have Marve Dr lust
Speaker 1: bedaor clinical professor of Medicine n y U Land going
Speaker 1: right here on Blomber Business Week. Well, let's get right
Speaker 1: back to Dr Ian Lust betaor clinical professor of medicine
Speaker 1: at n y U Lane Goinges Medical Center. He joins
Speaker 1: us on the phone from New York City. So, Dr Lust, Bet,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be very honest with you. Tim and I
Speaker 1: are talking like you know, he doesn't sound too worried.
Speaker 1: We we are feeling, you know, heightened anxiety. I'm stressed
Speaker 1: out there, you go, stressed out about some of these
Speaker 1: headlines and what what increases in the delta variant, Like
Speaker 1: we're talking about should we get off of master transportation
Speaker 1: now again? And you know, I'm getting together for family
Speaker 1: gathering and people are saying, can you kind of you know,
Speaker 1: not be in public places or inside restaurants? Are you
Speaker 1: really not that worried about what might be to come?
Speaker 1: I don't think it's good news that we're seeing a
Speaker 1: rise in cases, and we definitely are seeing a rise
Speaker 1: in cases, and we know that these are primarily DELTA,
Speaker 1: that DELTA is going to be, at least for the
Speaker 1: foreseeable future, the dominant strain. We know that unvaccinated people
Speaker 1: UM are are very susceptible, and I think we need
Speaker 1: to do better to address that subset. Approximately half the
Speaker 1: population of that has not been vaccinated UM and I
Speaker 1: it's a lot, and I you know, so the good
Speaker 1: news is somewhere like older people I've received both vaccines,
Speaker 1: but a number of young people, which is really where
Speaker 1: we're seeing the predominant UM increase in DELTA cases, have
Speaker 1: not been vaccinated. And so we do have to address
Speaker 1: some vaccine hesitancy, and just saying get vaccinated, I think
Speaker 1: may not always be that effective. Unfortunately some of them.
Speaker 1: You know, Internet news, you know, it's a very open
Speaker 1: information and often there's misinformation out there. It is true
Speaker 1: although MR and A vaccines have been used for many
Speaker 1: years for for this, it has been a relatively short
Speaker 1: time a year or two. There are some reported you know,
Speaker 1: side effects, myocardial inflammation and clots and so forth. With
Speaker 1: with J and J. But those are very, very small
Speaker 1: and and they're magnified into more more of a problem,
Speaker 1: I think than they are. I wish I could say
Speaker 1: that everything is risk free, but it's not even the
Speaker 1: influenza shots. You do see key on BRET, which is
Speaker 1: the sort of a sending paralysis. We see it with
Speaker 1: other vaccines. But overall, we think that the vaccines are
Speaker 1: very safe, and we need to do a better job
Speaker 1: with vaccine hesitancy. We also need to do better job
Speaker 1: with treatments and do study so that the people who
Speaker 1: are not getting it, we can at least perhaps treat them.
Speaker 1: And there may be some things out there that we
Speaker 1: haven't fully addressed. So I think we have not done
Speaker 1: a great job in addressing vaccine hesitancy, in therapeutics and UM.
Speaker 1: All we can do is encourage people in those areas. Hey,
Speaker 1: Dr Lesbader, I saw this headline cross earlier this week,
Speaker 1: and I said to Carol and and Paul and everybody
Speaker 1: on our call, I said, this is something I want
Speaker 1: to talk to with Dr Lesbiader about when he joins
Speaker 1: us on Friday. Overdose deaths staring to a record thousand
Speaker 1: last year. This in the midst of the COVID nineteen pandemic.
Speaker 1: That was according to new data that we got from
Speaker 1: the US government earlier this week. How much of that,
Speaker 1: in your opinion, has to do with the isolation that
Speaker 1: people felt last year? That to spare people felt last
Speaker 1: year and what can we do to improve that. I
Speaker 1: think it's a very high percent. I think it's an
Speaker 1: important topic. So somewhere over ninety people died of drug
Speaker 1: overdoses increase. There's no question that people respond to stress
Speaker 1: from COVID differently. Some people a small present, like working
Speaker 1: from home, they're happy not to go on the office.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately for most people, um, they're much more strained people.
Speaker 1: These overdose deaths are primarily in the thirty five to
Speaker 1: forty four year old age group. And I think what
Speaker 1: this shows us is that people need work, they need purpose,
Speaker 1: they need to socialize. But unfortunately, coupled with a stress
Speaker 1: and lack of work and lack of purpose is the
Speaker 1: availability of these anthetic opioids. These are come usually from overseas,
Speaker 1: often from China. They're more potent. We have our own
Speaker 1: opioid receptors, pain receptors in the body. Things like morphine
Speaker 1: will attach to those, but these synthetic opioids like sentine
Speaker 1: will bind much more aggressively. They do provide a little euphoria,
Speaker 1: pain relief, but also respiratory suppression. So people UH take
Speaker 1: it and they think they like it, but in fact
Speaker 1: they stop breathing. Uh. And there's a very narrow window
Speaker 1: of the amount of dose that it takes to get
Speaker 1: some either pain relief for a high sensation and cessation
Speaker 1: of breathing. And that's really why we're seeing this. We
Speaker 1: need to better seal the borders so we're not getting
Speaker 1: us synthetic opioids available, and we really need to address
Speaker 1: people in an outreach to give them purpose in life,
Speaker 1: to get them back to work and get them socializing.
Speaker 1: That is an argument for getting people back to the office. No,
Speaker 1: it's a really strong argument. And you know, you do
Speaker 1: worry that the situations and overlooked because of the pandemic
Speaker 1: and it's still a chronic situation here in the US.
Speaker 1: Uh Ian, Thank you so much. Dr In los Pader,
Speaker 1: clinical Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgo Medical Center.
Speaker 1: On the phone from New York City, you're listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes.
Speaker 1: Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. You are I've been kidding
Speaker 1: with you that you've been prepping, but you really have
Speaker 1: been prepping ahead of uh, Jeff Bezos going into space? Now,
Speaker 1: is he technically the edge of space to or No,
Speaker 1: he's technically going into space further out there, right, further
Speaker 1: out there? Yeah, further out there than we saw Richard
Speaker 1: Branson do last week. It's a hundred kilometers is what
Speaker 1: the international community considers going into space. It's called the
Speaker 1: Carmen law. Branson went under that, so he was still
Speaker 1: he still achieved weightlessness, but not because of gravity, but
Speaker 1: because of the vehicle that he was on falling through
Speaker 1: the sky. Okay, right, controlled any controlled manner as we saw,
Speaker 1: and the and the differences to that. We know Bezos
Speaker 1: is a rocket, right, yeah, it's this is this is
Speaker 1: an actual rocket. This is very different from what happened
Speaker 1: with Virgin Galactic. Well, this there's a story of the
Speaker 1: terminal that's a must read. It's actually our Bloomberg Big
Speaker 1: Take today. It's also in the NEWI show Bloomberg Business Week.
Speaker 1: Has to do with what we've been talking a lot
Speaker 1: about this past week. Billionaires, you know, Jeff Bezas, Richard Branson,
Speaker 1: Elon Musk going into space as Bloomberg's actually vance rights
Speaker 1: future of space bigger than the aforementioned billionaires. So let's
Speaker 1: get into it with Business Week features writer Ashley Vancey's, also,
Speaker 1: by the way, author of Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, and
Speaker 1: The Quest for a Fantastic Future. He is with us
Speaker 1: on the phone from Palo Alto. Actually great to have
Speaker 1: you here. Your story puts into perspective and really addresses though,
Speaker 1: why do we care that these billionaires are going into space?
Speaker 1: How do you see it? Yeah, well, you know, I
Speaker 1: know that the these space tourism rides are eye catchy
Speaker 1: and sexy and all that, and there's a lot of
Speaker 1: people on the pro and conside. You know. The point
Speaker 1: I wanted to make is that this is just a
Speaker 1: small part of what is a just a massive build
Speaker 1: out of the private space industry that's been taken place
Speaker 1: over the last few years and really accelerated over the
Speaker 1: past year. So what can we expect to see happen
Speaker 1: in the private space industry in the next decades if
Speaker 1: all goes according to plan On Tuesday, if this is
Speaker 1: a moment where Jeff Bezos is able to successfully go
Speaker 1: past the Carmen line in his eleven minute journey. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, that's the space tourism sort of
Speaker 1: piece of all this, and then it's kind of these
Speaker 1: layers of building a true economy for the first time
Speaker 1: in low earth orbit around the Earth. So we've got
Speaker 1: the space tourism, you've got SpaceX doing really well, spending
Speaker 1: satellites and people to space. A company in New Zealand
Speaker 1: called rocket Lab has already sent up dozens of rockets
Speaker 1: carrying satellites. You know, if you look at the launch
Speaker 1: manifest of all these rocket companies were to send up
Speaker 1: about a hundred thousand satellites over the next decad it
Speaker 1: which would be about its currently about three thousand satellites
Speaker 1: around the Earth. And so it's just the point that
Speaker 1: I wanted to make is that this has been his
Speaker 1: dream for a long time, and you know, it's still
Speaker 1: just a handful of governments really a bit of controlled
Speaker 1: space for the last six decades, and that's changing that. Well,
Speaker 1: I love this line in your story. What happens up
Speaker 1: above us will be one of the most important economic
Speaker 1: and technological stories of the next decade, whether or not
Speaker 1: Musk ever settles Mars. Uh. It's just like in some
Speaker 1: ways or is it different from the space race back
Speaker 1: in the sixties, I mean, which led to a lot
Speaker 1: of R and D, a lot of you know, innovation
Speaker 1: and just different thinkings about our world. Yeah. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, there's definitely, um, that sense of you know,
Speaker 1: exploring and science that takes place. But I think what's
Speaker 1: what we're talking about in the story a lot is
Speaker 1: is something that's just it's kind of more basic in
Speaker 1: some ways. It's building a the next great computer infrastructure.
Speaker 1: I think of it as like a computing shell around
Speaker 1: the Earth, full of communications, satellites, imaging science, all kinds
Speaker 1: of things and and you know, just like we had
Speaker 1: the Internet built out over the last twenty thirty years. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, I think this is going to be where
Speaker 1: the sort of next part of the cloud goes, is
Speaker 1: actually into the avot. We'll talk to us about you
Speaker 1: you talk about um a senior at Read College in Portland, Oregon.
Speaker 1: It's a great story, and I think it's a great
Speaker 1: example of what you are talking about. More broadly, here
Speaker 1: tell us who this person is. Decker Eve Litha is
Speaker 1: am I saying it correctly? Yeah, that's right. I mean,
Speaker 1: so this is an example of how far we have
Speaker 1: common people don't always notice. You know. A couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago, the story broke all throughout the news that
Speaker 1: that we've uncovered about a hundred twenty missile silos in
Speaker 1: China that had not previously been disclosed. It seemed to
Speaker 1: be evidence that they're in the process of a very
Speaker 1: large nuclear weapons build out. You know, in the past,
Speaker 1: this kind of thing would have been dis covered by
Speaker 1: a military satellite. Um in this case, it was an
Speaker 1: undergrad read college necker who was on his laptop and
Speaker 1: he was using just commercial satellite imagery from a company
Speaker 1: called Planet Laps, and it happens to be you know,
Speaker 1: these these silos are in a desert, and so even
Speaker 1: the military satellites would not usually be looking there because
Speaker 1: it's not a point of interest. But in this case,
Speaker 1: Planet has so many imagery satellites that it photographs every
Speaker 1: spot on the Earth every day, and so they had,
Speaker 1: you know, hundreds of thousands of images over years of
Speaker 1: this spot. Actually you drew a parallel here. Just that
Speaker 1: shows how far we've come in such a short period
Speaker 1: of time, roughly seventy years. You write that when the
Speaker 1: U s went spit to space looking for Soviet weapons
Speaker 1: of mass destruction in the late nineteen fifties, it had
Speaker 1: to use rockets to carry bulky satellites into orbit where
Speaker 1: they took photos and then they dropped their film canisters
Speaker 1: back to Earth to be rather incredibly caught in mid
Speaker 1: air by planes. Wow. I mean, this was the start
Speaker 1: of the satellite imagery, you know, business as it was.
Speaker 1: It was just in the government. But and that was
Speaker 1: at the end of bank We basically have to develop
Speaker 1: rocket technology, new optics and and all these these amazing
Speaker 1: ways to catch film canisters coming back to Earth all
Speaker 1: at once, and it didn't work very often at the beginning,
Speaker 1: and they finally figured it out. But then, you know,
Speaker 1: you cut forward all this time and any one of
Speaker 1: us now could open up um this planet Lab software
Speaker 1: and start poking around and the look of it. Well,
Speaker 1: and it's interesting because as you kicked off with, you know,
Speaker 1: the arguments are, we know that there are people who
Speaker 1: go without food in this country, people who don't have
Speaker 1: great health care, who don't have internet service. You know,
Speaker 1: things that have been laid bare by the pandemic is
Speaker 1: just a reminder of the inequities, and it's you know,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people education, right, But nonetheless
Speaker 1: your point is that there's what's going on in terms
Speaker 1: of space more generally, I mean, there will be a
Speaker 1: payoff in the economy and innovation in years to come. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I think it's just that sense with dreaming. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think the pandemic, you know, those are all very
Speaker 1: real problems, of course, and I think a lot of us,
Speaker 1: you know, everyone's had a really difficult time over the
Speaker 1: last eight months, and I think some of it is
Speaker 1: that feeling of kind of looking inward and and you know,
Speaker 1: there's kind of a malays hanging over things that I
Speaker 1: think has has told a little bit of this moment.
Speaker 1: And I think twenty years ago, when Musk and Brampton
Speaker 1: and Phase us set out to do this, everyone's like,
Speaker 1: that will never happen, You're wasting your money, you know, whatever,
Speaker 1: go ahead, And now they've actually done it. If people
Speaker 1: aren't excited, and and you know, it's an amazing accomplishment.
Speaker 1: And I think if we're gonna, if we're gonna tackle
Speaker 1: this stuff that's ahead of us. I mean, you have
Speaker 1: to be. It's you know, it's the kinds of not
Speaker 1: these billionaires, but it's the kinds of people who work
Speaker 1: at these companies who are gonna figure some of these
Speaker 1: things out. And and there are practical applications of infrastructure,
Speaker 1: the building space. It's gonna the forests and the environment. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so much, so much more, um beyond the big billionaires
Speaker 1: battling over who's first. All right, Ashley, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's actually vans uh Is, of course with us. Business
Speaker 1: Week features writer author of Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX and
Speaker 1: the Quest for a Fantastic Future. For those of you
Speaker 1: listening to New York DC in San Francisco watching a
Speaker 1: YouTube business Week but Tim and myself we're gonna come
Speaker 1: back if you're listening on Bloomberg one or six one
Speaker 1: in Boston based tape businesses. Next. Are you even pumped? Even?
Speaker 1: I'm so pumped. Tuesday thirty am Wall Street Time, that's
Speaker 1: when our coverage starts. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: So she keeps tabs on the higher education space. Right now,
Speaker 1: she's finding that scarce flights and visa issues are snarling
Speaker 1: students plans to reach the United States. Here with her story,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Higher education finance reporter Janet Lawrence. She's with
Speaker 1: us on the phone in New York City. Janet, You've
Speaker 1: been really following the ups and downs, a lot of
Speaker 1: downs over the past fifteen sixteen months when it comes
Speaker 1: to higher education and the pandemics impact on it. What's
Speaker 1: going on with international students? Well, international students would love
Speaker 1: to be getting ready to start UM their semesters in
Speaker 1: August or September, but there's having several problems. First of all,
Speaker 1: they're having trouble getting visas because of backlogs that councils
Speaker 1: and embassies around the world. And then even if they
Speaker 1: wanted to come, there's the issue of flights. We know
Speaker 1: that UM the most students come to the US from China,
Speaker 1: roughly a third of the million students that come in
Speaker 1: the typical year, and flights from China to the US
Speaker 1: are down from two years ago at this time at wow. Okay, So,
Speaker 1: so what are they what are you're talking to students,
Speaker 1: you're talking to colleges and universities, what are what are
Speaker 1: they asking from the students, asking from the colleges and
Speaker 1: universities right now. Well, at this point, you know they're
Speaker 1: they're still trying to sort everything out with their visas,
Speaker 1: showing all their documentation. Um. And typically you may not
Speaker 1: want to get a flight until you have your visa
Speaker 1: and you know that you can come. However, some students
Speaker 1: are just taking a gamble getting their flights as soon
Speaker 1: as they can. Some are being canceled. Uh, there are
Speaker 1: some charters. Parents and students have gotten together and um,
Speaker 1: we know that there's two charter fights coming to New
Speaker 1: York in August because there's just so much uncertainty there.
Speaker 1: And we know that international students have had a really
Speaker 1: hard time in the pandemic. At first many of them
Speaker 1: were stuck here and couldn't get home, and now they're
Speaker 1: having trouble getting back if they were able to get home.
Speaker 1: And of course there's all the new students who will
Speaker 1: be starting in the fall. Um, you know, coming by themselves.
Speaker 1: In some cases were able to get a flight, it's
Speaker 1: not going to be direct and you may have a
Speaker 1: few layovers then, you know, depending on where your college is.
Speaker 1: After you know, hours and hours and hours of travel,
Speaker 1: you know, you have a long ride to to a school,
Speaker 1: so it's and we haven't even talked about vaccines, which
Speaker 1: is another issue. Well, and let's talk about vaccines. Although
Speaker 1: I just want to mention in your story there's is
Speaker 1: so much great information, but you talk about some of
Speaker 1: the flights to China is such an important market Chinese
Speaker 1: students in particular for US industries. Do you say flights
Speaker 1: from China may come with an eye popping price tag.
Speaker 1: Average cost of a round trip ticket from that country
Speaker 1: to the US was about dollars during the first two
Speaker 1: quarters of one uh it's a big jump from the
Speaker 1: average of about twelve hundred seen in the same period
Speaker 1: in twenty But some students, you know, you're talking about
Speaker 1: four thousand dollars potentially for a one way ticket, and
Speaker 1: you've got students who are saying, I'm booking several in
Speaker 1: hopes that just one comes through. Yes, it's it's really
Speaker 1: quite uncertain for these students, and especially if you've never
Speaker 1: been to the US, which some of them you know,
Speaker 1: are traveling for the first time. Um, and you're having
Speaker 1: to go by yourself from these long journeys. But then again,
Speaker 1: we're hearing from Ohio state, which is starting August. There's
Speaker 1: a concern about what if I don't get here in time,
Speaker 1: maybe I should just differ, And that has a whole
Speaker 1: other cascade effects on colleges. We know that last year
Speaker 1: there was a sixtent decline in international students, and that's
Speaker 1: a lot of money for colleges because not only are
Speaker 1: they not getting the tuition revenue, but when they live
Speaker 1: in the dorms and they eat the dining halls, the
Speaker 1: schools are getting additional money that really helped them survive.
Speaker 1: If you're you're going to get these deferrals, which is
Speaker 1: entirely possible that you know, that brings up a whole
Speaker 1: other host of issues for colleges. It's an eye popping figure.
Speaker 1: Thirty eight point seven billion dollars. That's a That's what
Speaker 1: the n a f s A, the Association of International
Speaker 1: Educators says, as quoted in your story, um international students
Speaker 1: studying at US colleges and university, how much they contribute?
Speaker 1: How of college is adapted to this because it's not
Speaker 1: just the COVID pandemic. I mean, this started happening under
Speaker 1: the Trump administration when tensions with China increase in many
Speaker 1: Chinese students weren't able to come to the US, right, Yes, well,
Speaker 1: there was a slow in the growth of Chinese students
Speaker 1: coming and it's you know, they are by far the
Speaker 1: largest number of the country, most represented in the US
Speaker 1: is trying to about one third of all US foreign
Speaker 1: students coming to the US. So, you know, having online
Speaker 1: classes had not only impact on the bottom lines of colleges,
Speaker 1: but also on the town's where they are. You know,
Speaker 1: students still have to eat. They you know, they go
Speaker 1: to movies, they buy clothes, they buy groceries. So, um,
Speaker 1: you know, it's not just the colleges that took a hit.
Speaker 1: It was often the small towns. And now you're having
Speaker 1: the issue with vaccinations as well. Um, you know, you
Speaker 1: may see a lot of students having to get their
Speaker 1: vaccinations at colleges once they come here, once they're finally
Speaker 1: able to make it. So that's that's a whole other issue.
Speaker 1: I do also wonder, Janet, especially as the headlines Tim
Speaker 1: and I've been talking so much about cases rising here
Speaker 1: in the US, worries about the delta variant and whether
Speaker 1: or not we start to see some kind of pullback. Um,
Speaker 1: we see it already in l A County, you know,
Speaker 1: with masks again, whether or not things start to slow
Speaker 1: down and get an impact will ultimately have on these
Speaker 1: college and universities. Yeah, I mean, I wonder it's these
Speaker 1: colleges university have to be watching this very closely and
Speaker 1: asking themselves, Okay, what are we going to do to
Speaker 1: return to in person learning? As Jenna points out on
Speaker 1: their piece, there's so much pressure on these colleges and
Speaker 1: universities to return to in person learning because students who
Speaker 1: are paying full freight want to see that experience that
Speaker 1: they're paying for, right exactly, It's hard to when you're
Speaker 1: virtually at home, not experiencing costs right getting the experience.
Speaker 1: It's like I'm watching TV basics, even if you're paying
Speaker 1: half of what it costs to go to a traditional college.
Speaker 1: Agreed Genital Lauren higher education financial putter up Blooberg News
Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City. Check her out
Speaker 1: at jenit Lauren on Twitter rock a Journal. Yeah but
Speaker 1: you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no home please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the revel I want to drive, just driving, baby,
Speaker 1: good questions, trying this drive to the clog radio, TikTok.
Speaker 1: Everybody ten a half minutes left until the end of
Speaker 1: the trading day, and then we're Tim and I were done. No,
Speaker 1: we're not done, or you'll be done. I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: sitting in that FDR traffic. Tom Rogers, you can stay
Speaker 1: with me. You can stay with me. Let's get to it,
Speaker 1: because it's been an interesting day. Uh, Tim and I
Speaker 1: have been talking. It does feel like some of those
Speaker 1: COVID headlines are weighing on investors minds. Also that a
Speaker 1: decrease in consumer sentiment. Consumers increasingly concerned about maybe inflation.
Speaker 1: But we are seeing stocks go to their lows as
Speaker 1: we speak of the day. So we're down about thirty
Speaker 1: one points on the Dow, so that's down almost one percent.
Speaker 1: Let's get to it with Allen Lance Alances, director of
Speaker 1: research at Lance Global dot com, also president of Allan B.
Speaker 1: Lance and Associates. He joins us on the phone from Toledo, Ohio. Allen,
Speaker 1: it's great to have you back with us. We spoke
Speaker 1: not too long ago, and I'm interested to hear your
Speaker 1: take on on today's trade because it's something that Carol
Speaker 1: and I have been talking about throughout the afternoon. The
Speaker 1: rise in cases here in the US, the spread of
Speaker 1: the delta variant cruise lines taking ahead. It really does
Speaker 1: seem like investors are a little concerned about what we're
Speaker 1: seeing when it comes to the coronavirus. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: you have that, Tim, And then you also have you know,
Speaker 1: if you look at just see the amount of I
Speaker 1: p o s of late and and and they even
Speaker 1: though they're priced at at some of them the higher end,
Speaker 1: they're just not really uh uh paying off for the investors,
Speaker 1: and they can't hold their their initial price. And and
Speaker 1: you know, I think when you look at that, and
Speaker 1: and and the you know, the supply of new stocks
Speaker 1: coming in, it it's remin of February with the smacks
Speaker 1: and and in March. You know, are you saying there's
Speaker 1: just too much slashing around there, Alan, and a lot
Speaker 1: of it maybe not so good exactly, Carl. You know,
Speaker 1: I know last time we talked, coin base came out
Speaker 1: that day and and you know, it went up to
Speaker 1: and higher and then you know, as nothing but look
Speaker 1: back and and there's just a lot more risk out
Speaker 1: Their investors don't understand the risk they're taking, uh and
Speaker 1: and that and it pushes institutional investors to take more
Speaker 1: risk and and you know without a lot of all
Speaker 1: can I push you? Can I push you? Are we
Speaker 1: nervous that we're going to go into maybe another round
Speaker 1: of some type of lockdown that will once again put
Speaker 1: pressure on the economy just as we're starting to turn
Speaker 1: around here. Oh that's another negative. It's another headwind. The
Speaker 1: situation you know, as it develops in China's is another negative. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a number of headwinds that you know, I think
Speaker 1: it is going to make it difficult. And just from
Speaker 1: a valuation standpoint, which is what we go by, as
Speaker 1: you well know, um, you know, we've been taking more
Speaker 1: profits and not finding good alternatives, are finding selective you know,
Speaker 1: opportunities that we think are defensive and will hold up
Speaker 1: well and and and have some good long term performance.
Speaker 1: But there you know, there's not enough of them to
Speaker 1: uh use our proceeds for from the profit taking that
Speaker 1: that we've been uh you know doing the last last
Speaker 1: few weeks and whatever that happens. Uh, you know, it's
Speaker 1: not us making a call on the market. It's just
Speaker 1: a more the market more telling us that uh, you know,
Speaker 1: it's high and and uh and vulnerable. And I think
Speaker 1: that that's the case not only for what what you're
Speaker 1: mentioning with, uh, you know, even a slowdown here with
Speaker 1: uh you know, the economy's opening up and and and
Speaker 1: what's going on with us as far as the coronavirus,
Speaker 1: but also from the standpoint of you know, inflation and
Speaker 1: is it transient? And basically what what else is going
Speaker 1: on with um, you know, the risk being taken with
Speaker 1: junk bonds for examples. Do you think that inflation is transitory?
Speaker 1: Is fedre Powell continues to say, Now, I I really
Speaker 1: don't you know when you start looking at you know,
Speaker 1: wages and you know the employment situation and and uh,
Speaker 1: you know what what we're seeing with energy, which you know,
Speaker 1: I don't I don't see you know, changing UM anytime soon. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, I can't imagine, you know, I you know
Speaker 1: you're not going to have the increases that we've had
Speaker 1: because some of its supply chain with US as far
Speaker 1: as with the pandemic. But uh, you know, I think
Speaker 1: it's not only higher than what you know is being reported,
Speaker 1: but it's also it's it's there's a much more stickiness
Speaker 1: to it than what people think. Is it because a
Speaker 1: wage increases or I guess I ask is what changed
Speaker 1: from our pre pandemic world when it came to commodity
Speaker 1: supply chains versus where we are today. I mean, I
Speaker 1: know a lot happened during the pandemic. I'm not being
Speaker 1: stupid here, but I'm trying to understand what fundamentally has
Speaker 1: changed that as we get back to quote unquote um normal.
Speaker 1: Why isn't it we just kind of get back to
Speaker 1: where we were and what were the supply constraints back there?
Speaker 1: Remind us? And if that's a good question, Carol, and
Speaker 1: and and you know, I was afraid I was going
Speaker 1: to get all the social media is in it yet Master,
Speaker 1: you are stupid. The one, you know, the one you
Speaker 1: know energy energy alone, you know, is it's changed dramatically
Speaker 1: where you know we had uh we're independent and uh
Speaker 1: really uh you know, had control over our our destiny
Speaker 1: there and and um, you know, if that continues to
Speaker 1: to to progress the way it has uh in in
Speaker 1: the past, you know eight months, Uh, you know, it's
Speaker 1: just gonna go higher and higher. And then you A
Speaker 1: lot of it is pandemic related and supply chain and
Speaker 1: and and the employment situation with the the you know,
Speaker 1: as far as uh uh hand out and what have you.
Speaker 1: But you know, part of it is is something that's
Speaker 1: not going to change just you know, pre pandemic or
Speaker 1: or post pandemic, even if we don't have the you know,
Speaker 1: the delta. Uh you know, as bad as as as
Speaker 1: what you know might seem right now. So where are
Speaker 1: you seeing opportunities in the market right now? You said
Speaker 1: you've been selling a little bit um, but I'm wondering
Speaker 1: where you're deploying that cash. Yeah, we've been buying a
Speaker 1: little bit, we've been selling more so we're net sellers,
Speaker 1: but we're still finding some attractive uh tim Like Ball
Speaker 1: Corps is a company as Symbols BLLL that's been around
Speaker 1: for for ages and and the stock is down from
Speaker 1: a hundred and five to uh you know, the load
Speaker 1: of bit eighties and and we recommend it a few
Speaker 1: weeks ago. And and you know, I think, not only
Speaker 1: do they have a great situation and that there they
Speaker 1: put in some new manufacturing that's very efficient, so the
Speaker 1: numbers don't look at great now but will help profit
Speaker 1: margins next year and the year after. But they also
Speaker 1: have a nice aerospace division that's really not being noticed
Speaker 1: in Wall Street that that's growing gangbusters. So so I
Speaker 1: think a company like that can do well, um, you know,
Speaker 1: even in in in a in the sluggish or or
Speaker 1: downward work. And those are the type of things we're
Speaker 1: looking at, things that have some defensive capa abilities where
Speaker 1: it's about an all or none, you know, betting on
Speaker 1: the market and hoping that you know, there's a greater
Speaker 1: fool to buy the stock that you just purchased. Hey, Allen,
Speaker 1: we caught up with John Rodgers of an Aerial Investments
Speaker 1: earlier this week Deep Value Guy uh and did talk
Speaker 1: about probably the likelihood of some kind of tem percent
Speaker 1: correction here are you anticipating that for the market, see
Speaker 1: for equities particularly, Yeah, we really don't, you know, you know,
Speaker 1: as far as predict you know, I think it's impossible
Speaker 1: to say. All we can say is that, you know,
Speaker 1: when we're finding less you know, bargains and opportunities to
Speaker 1: buy and and and things are hitting our price targets
Speaker 1: and we're taking profits, we automatically start getting more defensive
Speaker 1: and build up cash. And whenever that's happened in the past,
Speaker 1: typically we're early. But eventually, yeah, there's gonna be a pullback.
Speaker 1: And if there's not a pullback. I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be even a worst case scenario. If the market get
Speaker 1: and going straight up, you know, as far as in
Speaker 1: the next year, then then I think we could have
Speaker 1: much more than just a pullback. So so yeah, I would.
Speaker 1: I'd like to see a correction. But you know, it's
Speaker 1: just impossible to predict the magnitude or or the timing.
Speaker 1: But you know, we we let the markets tell us
Speaker 1: by our valuation parameters. All Right, Gonna leave it there. Hey, Allen,
Speaker 1: have a good week in Allen Lance, director of Research
Speaker 1: at Lance Global dot com, President of Allen B. Lance
Speaker 1: and Associates, on the phone from Toledo, Ohio. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
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