WEBVTT - U.S. Remains a Dangerous Place for Unvaccinated

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So much to get to.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about President Biden signaling progress to lifting a

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<v Speaker 1>ban on travel from Europe, so we're hoping that, you know, borders.

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<v Speaker 1>I know you're looking at me like, how do we

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<v Speaker 1>do that well. At the same time, COVID's daily US

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<v Speaker 1>Death Toll Carol tops Guns, cars and blue combined daily

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<v Speaker 1>that headline daily right, I understand for daily right, this

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<v Speaker 1>is what's happening now we're seeing the increasing cases we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about l A, let's just get right to it

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<v Speaker 1>with Dr Ian lous Bader. He joins us every Friday

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<v Speaker 1>gives us a COVID ground up what we need to

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<v Speaker 1>focus on his clinical professor of medicine and yu landgown.

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<v Speaker 1>He is on the phone in New York City. Ian,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you here with us. How are you good? Good?

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<v Speaker 1>Always the pleasure, guys, hopefully providing some useful information we need.

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<v Speaker 1>We need useful information because we're feeling a little stressed

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<v Speaker 1>out again. Um, help us make some sense of these headlines.

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<v Speaker 1>So just to review, Delta is one of a number

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<v Speaker 1>of variants of our old acquaintance COVID nineteen. And really

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<v Speaker 1>delta variant is a mutation or several mutations in the

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<v Speaker 1>spike protein. So when that happens, Uh, that spike protein

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<v Speaker 1>is really where the COVID virus attaches to ourselves the

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<v Speaker 1>H two receptors. And unfortunately, as that mutates, it can

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<v Speaker 1>attach more aggressively and it can escape even uh sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>people who are vaccinated. Certainly we're seeing a big rise

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<v Speaker 1>in people who are unvaccinated, really primarily young people, and

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<v Speaker 1>in a variety of states throughout the South and part

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<v Speaker 1>of the Moodwest. Uh, it does not appear to be

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<v Speaker 1>more deadly. In other words, it's not it's not killing

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<v Speaker 1>more people other than numerically meaning the more people that

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<v Speaker 1>get COVID, whether of any strain, whether it's the initial

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<v Speaker 1>alpha strain from the UK or any of the other strains. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>the more people that get infected statistically, if it's less

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<v Speaker 1>than one percent that get hospitalized, the bigger the number,

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<v Speaker 1>the bigger the denominator, you know, than the bigger the

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<v Speaker 1>number of people who do get admitted in the people

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<v Speaker 1>who die from it. Well, that's what we're already seeing.

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<v Speaker 1>We just learned from the CDC that we're seeing seven

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<v Speaker 1>day average for hospital admissions nationwide rising thirty six percent

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<v Speaker 1>to nine daily deaths. Dr lust Vader jumping two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and eleven per day. How should we think about this

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<v Speaker 1>if we've been vaccinated, Because here we are, having received

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines so many people, tens of millions of Americans, and

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<v Speaker 1>they're living in places where they're they're going back to work,

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<v Speaker 1>not wearing masks, writing public transit, maybe wearing masks on

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<v Speaker 1>public transit, but they're back to life as usual, and

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<v Speaker 1>it seems like this is a big setback. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no question that that this is a setback. It's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to say how big at this point. Certainly the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines at this point, you know, certainly the the mRNA,

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<v Speaker 1>the Maduna Advisor vaccines do provide a lot of protection,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly for severe disease. Meaning most everyone who is vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>even if they get a breakthrough infection, are not being

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalized and not dying. It's a very very small prevent

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<v Speaker 1>So the vaccines still now are very effective. We do

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<v Speaker 1>think the antibody levels are high. The problem is that

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<v Speaker 1>the delta variant, that that the mutations in the spike

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<v Speaker 1>protein make it less sensitive to the antibodies that we

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<v Speaker 1>form and also make it a little less sensitive to

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<v Speaker 1>some of the other like monoclonal antibo the therapies that

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<v Speaker 1>that we are giving. So the concentration of the virus

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<v Speaker 1>in the blood and the secretions caught and nasal secretions

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<v Speaker 1>gets very high, very early on. That's one of the

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<v Speaker 1>one of the mutations the delta has, so it's more contagious. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>People don't feel sick, but by the time they feel sick,

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<v Speaker 1>they already have a very high concentration. UH. And so

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<v Speaker 1>it's definitely a challenge. But for the people who have

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<v Speaker 1>been vaccinated, very very low risk of hospitalization. They may

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<v Speaker 1>get breakthroughs. It's under ten percent of people will get breakthroughs.

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<v Speaker 1>So far, the antibodies do seem to keep it in check.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, could it mutate further and be more difficult

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<v Speaker 1>another variant. It is possible, But at this point, the

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<v Speaker 1>people who do need to worry are the people who

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<v Speaker 1>are not vaccinated. And since we don't have great treatment,

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<v Speaker 1>even the monoclonal antibodies that we're using, like them lavid

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<v Speaker 1>um or other alternative therapiest people talk about iver met

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<v Speaker 1>and some of the other the vaccinations make the most

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<v Speaker 1>sense for the people who are vaccine hesitant because that

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<v Speaker 1>at this point really provides the best protection against the

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<v Speaker 1>delta variant and ultimately against hospitalization. Because you said, the

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<v Speaker 1>delta variant not more deadly than other strains. Are you

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<v Speaker 1>you're saying for those who are vaccinated, But if you're

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<v Speaker 1>not vaccinated, is it more is it deadlier? It is

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<v Speaker 1>not more deadly. In other words, it doesn't seem to

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<v Speaker 1>close more of this cytokine storm. But if you're infecting

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more people, even if it's that smaller percent,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, less than one percent get hospitalized. If you're

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<v Speaker 1>infecting more people, that one percent gets to be a

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<v Speaker 1>growing number of hospitalizations. You know, one of the stories

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<v Speaker 1>we've been talking about here in New York City, the Yankees,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and you know we're seeing just even sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>it's cases of people who have gotten the vaccine, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're all of a sudden feeling like there's

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<v Speaker 1>this potential for once again some super spreader events. Are

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<v Speaker 1>you anticipating that we will see that again? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think so, there there is. I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>people who are vaccinated at this point need to wear masks. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly not outdoors. If people are insecure, or you're older,

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<v Speaker 1>or you have underlying infections or or immune compromise, sure

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<v Speaker 1>wear the mask. The Yankees and other people who do

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<v Speaker 1>seem despite vaccines, who they recover virus, they're very low symptoms.

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<v Speaker 1>They may have a mild claw for cold, they may

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<v Speaker 1>have a breakthrough. Uh, could they potentially spread It could be,

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<v Speaker 1>But we're not seeing this on a widespread basis at

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<v Speaker 1>this point, and hopefully that won't occur. Do you think,

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<v Speaker 1>just in the last fifteen seconds here, Dr les Bader,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think we're gonna have to wear masks again

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<v Speaker 1>here in New York city in the fall. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>see that right now. I think it's possible deeper into

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<v Speaker 1>the winter, but certainly not in the next few months,

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<v Speaker 1>given our low level of infection in the Triestite area. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, stick around, We're gonna have Marve Dr lust

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<v Speaker 1>bedaor clinical professor of Medicine n y U Land going

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<v Speaker 1>right here on Blomber Business Week. Well, let's get right

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<v Speaker 1>back to Dr Ian Lust betaor clinical professor of medicine

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<v Speaker 1>at n y U Lane Goinges Medical Center. He joins

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<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New York City. So, Dr Lust, Bet,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna be very honest with you. Tim and I

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<v Speaker 1>are talking like you know, he doesn't sound too worried.

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<v Speaker 1>We we are feeling, you know, heightened anxiety. I'm stressed

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<v Speaker 1>out there, you go, stressed out about some of these

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<v Speaker 1>headlines and what what increases in the delta variant, Like

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about should we get off of master transportation

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<v Speaker 1>now again? And you know, I'm getting together for family

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<v Speaker 1>gathering and people are saying, can you kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>not be in public places or inside restaurants? Are you

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<v Speaker 1>really not that worried about what might be to come?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's good news that we're seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>rise in cases, and we definitely are seeing a rise

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<v Speaker 1>in cases, and we know that these are primarily DELTA,

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<v Speaker 1>that DELTA is going to be, at least for the

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<v Speaker 1>foreseeable future, the dominant strain. We know that unvaccinated people

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<v Speaker 1>UM are are very susceptible, and I think we need

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<v Speaker 1>to do better to address that subset. Approximately half the

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<v Speaker 1>population of that has not been vaccinated UM and I

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<v Speaker 1>it's a lot, and I you know, so the good

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<v Speaker 1>news is somewhere like older people I've received both vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>but a number of young people, which is really where

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing the predominant UM increase in DELTA cases, have

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<v Speaker 1>not been vaccinated. And so we do have to address

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<v Speaker 1>some vaccine hesitancy, and just saying get vaccinated, I think

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<v Speaker 1>may not always be that effective. Unfortunately some of them.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Internet news, you know, it's a very open

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<v Speaker 1>information and often there's misinformation out there. It is true

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<v Speaker 1>although MR and A vaccines have been used for many

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<v Speaker 1>years for for this, it has been a relatively short

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<v Speaker 1>time a year or two. There are some reported you know,

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<v Speaker 1>side effects, myocardial inflammation and clots and so forth. With

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<v Speaker 1>with J and J. But those are very, very small

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<v Speaker 1>and and they're magnified into more more of a problem,

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<v Speaker 1>I think than they are. I wish I could say

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<v Speaker 1>that everything is risk free, but it's not even the

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<v Speaker 1>influenza shots. You do see key on BRET, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of a sending paralysis. We see it with

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<v Speaker 1>other vaccines. But overall, we think that the vaccines are

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<v Speaker 1>very safe, and we need to do a better job

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<v Speaker 1>with vaccine hesitancy. We also need to do better job

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<v Speaker 1>with treatments and do study so that the people who

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<v Speaker 1>are not getting it, we can at least perhaps treat them.

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<v Speaker 1>And there may be some things out there that we

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<v Speaker 1>haven't fully addressed. So I think we have not done

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<v Speaker 1>a great job in addressing vaccine hesitancy, in therapeutics and UM.

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<v Speaker 1>All we can do is encourage people in those areas. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Lesbader, I saw this headline cross earlier this week,

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<v Speaker 1>and I said to Carol and and Paul and everybody

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<v Speaker 1>on our call, I said, this is something I want

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<v Speaker 1>to talk to with Dr Lesbiader about when he joins

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<v Speaker 1>us on Friday. Overdose deaths staring to a record thousand

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<v Speaker 1>last year. This in the midst of the COVID nineteen pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>That was according to new data that we got from

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<v Speaker 1>the US government earlier this week. How much of that,

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<v Speaker 1>in your opinion, has to do with the isolation that

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<v Speaker 1>people felt last year? That to spare people felt last

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<v Speaker 1>year and what can we do to improve that. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's a very high percent. I think it's an

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<v Speaker 1>important topic. So somewhere over ninety people died of drug

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<v Speaker 1>overdoses increase. There's no question that people respond to stress

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<v Speaker 1>from COVID differently. Some people a small present, like working

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<v Speaker 1>from home, they're happy not to go on the office.

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<v Speaker 1>Unfortunately for most people, um, they're much more strained people.

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<v Speaker 1>These overdose deaths are primarily in the thirty five to

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<v Speaker 1>forty four year old age group. And I think what

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<v Speaker 1>this shows us is that people need work, they need purpose,

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<v Speaker 1>they need to socialize. But unfortunately, coupled with a stress

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<v Speaker 1>and lack of work and lack of purpose is the

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<v Speaker 1>availability of these anthetic opioids. These are come usually from overseas,

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<v Speaker 1>often from China. They're more potent. We have our own

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<v Speaker 1>opioid receptors, pain receptors in the body. Things like morphine

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<v Speaker 1>will attach to those, but these synthetic opioids like sentine

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<v Speaker 1>will bind much more aggressively. They do provide a little euphoria,

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<v Speaker 1>pain relief, but also respiratory suppression. So people UH take

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<v Speaker 1>it and they think they like it, but in fact

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<v Speaker 1>they stop breathing. Uh. And there's a very narrow window

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<v Speaker 1>of the amount of dose that it takes to get

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<v Speaker 1>some either pain relief for a high sensation and cessation

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<v Speaker 1>of breathing. And that's really why we're seeing this. We

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<v Speaker 1>need to better seal the borders so we're not getting

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<v Speaker 1>us synthetic opioids available, and we really need to address

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<v Speaker 1>people in an outreach to give them purpose in life,

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<v Speaker 1>to get them back to work and get them socializing.

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<v Speaker 1>That is an argument for getting people back to the office. No,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a really strong argument. And you know, you do

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<v Speaker 1>worry that the situations and overlooked because of the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>and it's still a chronic situation here in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh Ian, Thank you so much. Dr In los Pader,

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<v Speaker 1>clinical Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgo Medical Center.

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<v Speaker 1>On the phone from New York City, you're listening to

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes.

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. You are I've been kidding

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<v Speaker 1>with you that you've been prepping, but you really have

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<v Speaker 1>been prepping ahead of uh, Jeff Bezos going into space? Now,

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<v Speaker 1>is he technically the edge of space to or No,

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<v Speaker 1>he's technically going into space further out there, right, further

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<v Speaker 1>out there? Yeah, further out there than we saw Richard

0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.560
<v Speaker 1>Branson do last week. It's a hundred kilometers is what

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.400
<v Speaker 1>the international community considers going into space. It's called the

0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:44.320
<v Speaker 1>Carmen law. Branson went under that, so he was still

0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:48.040
<v Speaker 1>he still achieved weightlessness, but not because of gravity, but

0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:52.240
<v Speaker 1>because of the vehicle that he was on falling through

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:56.360
<v Speaker 1>the sky. Okay, right, controlled any controlled manner as we saw,

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.880
<v Speaker 1>and the and the differences to that. We know Bezos

0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:02.640
<v Speaker 1>is a rocket, right, yeah, it's this is this is

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 1>an actual rocket. This is very different from what happened

0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.319
<v Speaker 1>with Virgin Galactic. Well, this there's a story of the

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.600
<v Speaker 1>terminal that's a must read. It's actually our Bloomberg Big

0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:12.000
<v Speaker 1>Take today. It's also in the NEWI show Bloomberg Business Week.

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>Has to do with what we've been talking a lot

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:17.240
<v Speaker 1>about this past week. Billionaires, you know, Jeff Bezas, Richard Branson,

0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.760
<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk going into space as Bloomberg's actually vance rights

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 1>future of space bigger than the aforementioned billionaires. So let's

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:28.280
<v Speaker 1>get into it with Business Week features writer Ashley Vancey's, also,

0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 1>by the way, author of Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, and

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.320
<v Speaker 1>The Quest for a Fantastic Future. He is with us

0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:36.840
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Palo Alto. Actually great to have

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:41.840
<v Speaker 1>you here. Your story puts into perspective and really addresses though,

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.439
<v Speaker 1>why do we care that these billionaires are going into space?

0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 1>How do you see it? Yeah, well, you know, I

0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 1>know that the these space tourism rides are eye catchy

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>and sexy and all that, and there's a lot of

0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.680
<v Speaker 1>people on the pro and conside. You know. The point

0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:00.520
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to make is that this is just a

0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:04.559
<v Speaker 1>small part of what is a just a massive build

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.600
<v Speaker 1>out of the private space industry that's been taken place

0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 1>over the last few years and really accelerated over the

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.760
<v Speaker 1>past year. So what can we expect to see happen

0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 1>in the private space industry in the next decades if

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.520
<v Speaker 1>all goes according to plan On Tuesday, if this is

0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:23.320
<v Speaker 1>a moment where Jeff Bezos is able to successfully go

0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 1>past the Carmen line in his eleven minute journey. Yeah,

0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, that's the space tourism sort of

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 1>piece of all this, and then it's kind of these

0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 1>layers of building a true economy for the first time

0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.680
<v Speaker 1>in low earth orbit around the Earth. So we've got

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>the space tourism, you've got SpaceX doing really well, spending

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.600
<v Speaker 1>satellites and people to space. A company in New Zealand

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 1>called rocket Lab has already sent up dozens of rockets

0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:53.320
<v Speaker 1>carrying satellites. You know, if you look at the launch

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:57.040
<v Speaker 1>manifest of all these rocket companies were to send up

0:14:57.040 --> 0:15:00.120
<v Speaker 1>about a hundred thousand satellites over the next decad it

0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:04.800
<v Speaker 1>which would be about its currently about three thousand satellites

0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 1>around the Earth. And so it's just the point that

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to make is that this has been his

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.120
<v Speaker 1>dream for a long time, and you know, it's still

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>just a handful of governments really a bit of controlled

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:19.080
<v Speaker 1>space for the last six decades, and that's changing that. Well,

0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>I love this line in your story. What happens up

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>above us will be one of the most important economic

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.760
<v Speaker 1>and technological stories of the next decade, whether or not

0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 1>Musk ever settles Mars. Uh. It's just like in some

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:32.960
<v Speaker 1>ways or is it different from the space race back

0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 1>in the sixties, I mean, which led to a lot

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 1>of R and D, a lot of you know, innovation

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 1>and just different thinkings about our world. Yeah. I mean,

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's definitely, um, that sense of you know,

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 1>exploring and science that takes place. But I think what's

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 1>what we're talking about in the story a lot is

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 1>is something that's just it's kind of more basic in

0:15:56.840 --> 0:16:00.920
<v Speaker 1>some ways. It's building a the next great computer infrastructure.

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.160
<v Speaker 1>I think of it as like a computing shell around

0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:07.400
<v Speaker 1>the Earth, full of communications, satellites, imaging science, all kinds

0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:10.040
<v Speaker 1>of things and and you know, just like we had

0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 1>the Internet built out over the last twenty thirty years. Um,

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:15.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think this is going to be where

0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the sort of next part of the cloud goes, is

0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:22.840
<v Speaker 1>actually into the avot. We'll talk to us about you

0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 1>you talk about um a senior at Read College in Portland, Oregon.

0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:28.440
<v Speaker 1>It's a great story, and I think it's a great

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 1>example of what you are talking about. More broadly, here

0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.280
<v Speaker 1>tell us who this person is. Decker Eve Litha is

0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 1>am I saying it correctly? Yeah, that's right. I mean,

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>so this is an example of how far we have

0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.480
<v Speaker 1>common people don't always notice. You know. A couple of

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:45.320
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago, the story broke all throughout the news that

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:49.600
<v Speaker 1>that we've uncovered about a hundred twenty missile silos in

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.720
<v Speaker 1>China that had not previously been disclosed. It seemed to

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 1>be evidence that they're in the process of a very

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:58.680
<v Speaker 1>large nuclear weapons build out. You know, in the past,

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:00.400
<v Speaker 1>this kind of thing would have been dis covered by

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:04.199
<v Speaker 1>a military satellite. Um in this case, it was an

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:08.879
<v Speaker 1>undergrad read college necker who was on his laptop and

0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:12.679
<v Speaker 1>he was using just commercial satellite imagery from a company

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:14.919
<v Speaker 1>called Planet Laps, and it happens to be you know,

0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.720
<v Speaker 1>these these silos are in a desert, and so even

0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 1>the military satellites would not usually be looking there because

0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 1>it's not a point of interest. But in this case,

0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:27.640
<v Speaker 1>Planet has so many imagery satellites that it photographs every

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.880
<v Speaker 1>spot on the Earth every day, and so they had,

0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:32.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, hundreds of thousands of images over years of

0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.280
<v Speaker 1>this spot. Actually you drew a parallel here. Just that

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 1>shows how far we've come in such a short period

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 1>of time, roughly seventy years. You write that when the

0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 1>U s went spit to space looking for Soviet weapons

0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.120
<v Speaker 1>of mass destruction in the late nineteen fifties, it had

0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.240
<v Speaker 1>to use rockets to carry bulky satellites into orbit where

0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.320
<v Speaker 1>they took photos and then they dropped their film canisters

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:57.120
<v Speaker 1>back to Earth to be rather incredibly caught in mid

0:17:57.160 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 1>air by planes. Wow. I mean, this was the start

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.560
<v Speaker 1>of the satellite imagery, you know, business as it was.

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 1>It was just in the government. But and that was

0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.639
<v Speaker 1>at the end of bank We basically have to develop

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.880
<v Speaker 1>rocket technology, new optics and and all these these amazing

0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.959
<v Speaker 1>ways to catch film canisters coming back to Earth all

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.959
<v Speaker 1>at once, and it didn't work very often at the beginning,

0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.240
<v Speaker 1>and they finally figured it out. But then, you know,

0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.840
<v Speaker 1>you cut forward all this time and any one of

0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.679
<v Speaker 1>us now could open up um this planet Lab software

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 1>and start poking around and the look of it. Well,

0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:38.119
<v Speaker 1>and it's interesting because as you kicked off with, you know,

0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.200
<v Speaker 1>the arguments are, we know that there are people who

0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.440
<v Speaker 1>go without food in this country, people who don't have

0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.199
<v Speaker 1>great health care, who don't have internet service. You know,

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.919
<v Speaker 1>things that have been laid bare by the pandemic is

0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.639
<v Speaker 1>just a reminder of the inequities, and it's you know,

0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:54.959
<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of people education, right, But nonetheless

0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:58.480
<v Speaker 1>your point is that there's what's going on in terms

0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:00.639
<v Speaker 1>of space more generally, I mean, there will be a

0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:06.240
<v Speaker 1>payoff in the economy and innovation in years to come. Yeah,

0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:08.439
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's just that sense with dreaming. I mean,

0:19:08.480 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 1>I think the pandemic, you know, those are all very

0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:12.760
<v Speaker 1>real problems, of course, and I think a lot of us,

0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, everyone's had a really difficult time over the

0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:17.840
<v Speaker 1>last eight months, and I think some of it is

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.760
<v Speaker 1>that feeling of kind of looking inward and and you know,

0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:23.159
<v Speaker 1>there's kind of a malays hanging over things that I

0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:26.160
<v Speaker 1>think has has told a little bit of this moment.

0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:29.120
<v Speaker 1>And I think twenty years ago, when Musk and Brampton

0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:31.639
<v Speaker 1>and Phase us set out to do this, everyone's like,

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 1>that will never happen, You're wasting your money, you know, whatever,

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>go ahead, And now they've actually done it. If people

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:41.160
<v Speaker 1>aren't excited, and and you know, it's an amazing accomplishment.

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 1>And I think if we're gonna, if we're gonna tackle

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:45.919
<v Speaker 1>this stuff that's ahead of us. I mean, you have

0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.639
<v Speaker 1>to be. It's you know, it's the kinds of not

0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:50.840
<v Speaker 1>these billionaires, but it's the kinds of people who work

0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:53.720
<v Speaker 1>at these companies who are gonna figure some of these

0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:58.040
<v Speaker 1>things out. And and there are practical applications of infrastructure,

0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:04.119
<v Speaker 1>the building space. It's gonna the forests and the environment. Yeah,

0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:07.680
<v Speaker 1>so much, so much more, um beyond the big billionaires

0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:10.840
<v Speaker 1>battling over who's first. All right, Ashley, thank you so much.

0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:14.719
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's actually vans uh Is, of course with us. Business

0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.639
<v Speaker 1>Week features writer author of Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX and

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>the Quest for a Fantastic Future. For those of you

0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:22.159
<v Speaker 1>listening to New York DC in San Francisco watching a

0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 1>YouTube business Week but Tim and myself we're gonna come

0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:26.239
<v Speaker 1>back if you're listening on Bloomberg one or six one

0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:28.639
<v Speaker 1>in Boston based tape businesses. Next. Are you even pumped? Even?

0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:32.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm so pumped. Tuesday thirty am Wall Street Time, that's

0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:35.840
<v Speaker 1>when our coverage starts. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:40.760
<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:43.919
<v Speaker 1>So she keeps tabs on the higher education space. Right now,

0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:47.280
<v Speaker 1>she's finding that scarce flights and visa issues are snarling

0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:49.879
<v Speaker 1>students plans to reach the United States. Here with her story,

0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News Higher education finance reporter Janet Lawrence. She's with

0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:57.240
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone in New York City. Janet, You've

0:20:57.240 --> 0:20:59.320
<v Speaker 1>been really following the ups and downs, a lot of

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:02.400
<v Speaker 1>downs over the past fifteen sixteen months when it comes

0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:06.120
<v Speaker 1>to higher education and the pandemics impact on it. What's

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:10.400
<v Speaker 1>going on with international students? Well, international students would love

0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:13.240
<v Speaker 1>to be getting ready to start UM their semesters in

0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:17.520
<v Speaker 1>August or September, but there's having several problems. First of all,

0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:21.320
<v Speaker 1>they're having trouble getting visas because of backlogs that councils

0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:24.040
<v Speaker 1>and embassies around the world. And then even if they

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:26.719
<v Speaker 1>wanted to come, there's the issue of flights. We know

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:30.159
<v Speaker 1>that UM the most students come to the US from China,

0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:32.960
<v Speaker 1>roughly a third of the million students that come in

0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:36.639
<v Speaker 1>the typical year, and flights from China to the US

0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:43.639
<v Speaker 1>are down from two years ago at this time at wow. Okay, So,

0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:45.520
<v Speaker 1>so what are they what are you're talking to students,

0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:47.920
<v Speaker 1>you're talking to colleges and universities, what are what are

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:51.600
<v Speaker 1>they asking from the students, asking from the colleges and

0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:55.280
<v Speaker 1>universities right now. Well, at this point, you know they're

0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:57.640
<v Speaker 1>they're still trying to sort everything out with their visas,

0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 1>showing all their documentation. Um. And typically you may not

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:02.840
<v Speaker 1>want to get a flight until you have your visa

0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:05.360
<v Speaker 1>and you know that you can come. However, some students

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 1>are just taking a gamble getting their flights as soon

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:11.159
<v Speaker 1>as they can. Some are being canceled. Uh, there are

0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 1>some charters. Parents and students have gotten together and um,

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:17.719
<v Speaker 1>we know that there's two charter fights coming to New

0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:21.800
<v Speaker 1>York in August because there's just so much uncertainty there.

0:22:22.280 --> 0:22:24.480
<v Speaker 1>And we know that international students have had a really

0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:26.640
<v Speaker 1>hard time in the pandemic. At first many of them

0:22:26.640 --> 0:22:29.720
<v Speaker 1>were stuck here and couldn't get home, and now they're

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:32.400
<v Speaker 1>having trouble getting back if they were able to get home.

0:22:32.840 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 1>And of course there's all the new students who will

0:22:34.840 --> 0:22:38.119
<v Speaker 1>be starting in the fall. Um, you know, coming by themselves.

0:22:38.320 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 1>In some cases were able to get a flight, it's

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:42.879
<v Speaker 1>not going to be direct and you may have a

0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:46.000
<v Speaker 1>few layovers then, you know, depending on where your college is.

0:22:46.160 --> 0:22:49.720
<v Speaker 1>After you know, hours and hours and hours of travel,

0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:52.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, you have a long ride to to a school,

0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.120
<v Speaker 1>so it's and we haven't even talked about vaccines, which

0:22:55.160 --> 0:22:58.120
<v Speaker 1>is another issue. Well, and let's talk about vaccines. Although

0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:00.119
<v Speaker 1>I just want to mention in your story there's is

0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:02.879
<v Speaker 1>so much great information, but you talk about some of

0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:05.399
<v Speaker 1>the flights to China is such an important market Chinese

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:09.520
<v Speaker 1>students in particular for US industries. Do you say flights

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:11.600
<v Speaker 1>from China may come with an eye popping price tag.

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:14.199
<v Speaker 1>Average cost of a round trip ticket from that country

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:17.239
<v Speaker 1>to the US was about dollars during the first two

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:21.480
<v Speaker 1>quarters of one uh it's a big jump from the

0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:24.200
<v Speaker 1>average of about twelve hundred seen in the same period

0:23:24.200 --> 0:23:27.160
<v Speaker 1>in twenty But some students, you know, you're talking about

0:23:27.200 --> 0:23:29.520
<v Speaker 1>four thousand dollars potentially for a one way ticket, and

0:23:29.880 --> 0:23:33.040
<v Speaker 1>you've got students who are saying, I'm booking several in

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:37.440
<v Speaker 1>hopes that just one comes through. Yes, it's it's really

0:23:37.680 --> 0:23:41.120
<v Speaker 1>quite uncertain for these students, and especially if you've never

0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:42.960
<v Speaker 1>been to the US, which some of them you know,

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:46.000
<v Speaker 1>are traveling for the first time. Um, and you're having

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:49.240
<v Speaker 1>to go by yourself from these long journeys. But then again,

0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 1>we're hearing from Ohio state, which is starting August. There's

0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:56.920
<v Speaker 1>a concern about what if I don't get here in time,

0:23:57.000 --> 0:23:59.240
<v Speaker 1>maybe I should just differ, And that has a whole

0:23:59.240 --> 0:24:02.960
<v Speaker 1>other cascade effects on colleges. We know that last year

0:24:03.000 --> 0:24:06.280
<v Speaker 1>there was a sixtent decline in international students, and that's

0:24:06.320 --> 0:24:09.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of money for colleges because not only are

0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:12.200
<v Speaker 1>they not getting the tuition revenue, but when they live

0:24:12.240 --> 0:24:14.720
<v Speaker 1>in the dorms and they eat the dining halls, the

0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:17.880
<v Speaker 1>schools are getting additional money that really helped them survive.

0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 1>If you're you're going to get these deferrals, which is

0:24:21.840 --> 0:24:24.440
<v Speaker 1>entirely possible that you know, that brings up a whole

0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:28.159
<v Speaker 1>other host of issues for colleges. It's an eye popping figure.

0:24:28.680 --> 0:24:31.520
<v Speaker 1>Thirty eight point seven billion dollars. That's a That's what

0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:35.400
<v Speaker 1>the n a f s A, the Association of International

0:24:35.520 --> 0:24:39.119
<v Speaker 1>Educators says, as quoted in your story, um international students

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:41.719
<v Speaker 1>studying at US colleges and university, how much they contribute?

0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:43.919
<v Speaker 1>How of college is adapted to this because it's not

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 1>just the COVID pandemic. I mean, this started happening under

0:24:46.320 --> 0:24:49.240
<v Speaker 1>the Trump administration when tensions with China increase in many

0:24:49.320 --> 0:24:52.920
<v Speaker 1>Chinese students weren't able to come to the US, right, Yes, well,

0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:55.440
<v Speaker 1>there was a slow in the growth of Chinese students

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:58.000
<v Speaker 1>coming and it's you know, they are by far the

0:24:58.080 --> 0:25:02.160
<v Speaker 1>largest number of the country, most represented in the US

0:25:02.280 --> 0:25:05.480
<v Speaker 1>is trying to about one third of all US foreign

0:25:05.520 --> 0:25:08.800
<v Speaker 1>students coming to the US. So, you know, having online

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:12.360
<v Speaker 1>classes had not only impact on the bottom lines of colleges,

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:15.560
<v Speaker 1>but also on the town's where they are. You know,

0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:17.800
<v Speaker 1>students still have to eat. They you know, they go

0:25:17.880 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to movies, they buy clothes, they buy groceries. So, um,

0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:24.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's not just the colleges that took a hit.

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:28.280
<v Speaker 1>It was often the small towns. And now you're having

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:31.560
<v Speaker 1>the issue with vaccinations as well. Um, you know, you

0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:33.520
<v Speaker 1>may see a lot of students having to get their

0:25:33.600 --> 0:25:36.959
<v Speaker 1>vaccinations at colleges once they come here, once they're finally

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:39.199
<v Speaker 1>able to make it. So that's that's a whole other issue.

0:25:39.400 --> 0:25:41.640
<v Speaker 1>I do also wonder, Janet, especially as the headlines Tim

0:25:41.640 --> 0:25:43.719
<v Speaker 1>and I've been talking so much about cases rising here

0:25:43.720 --> 0:25:46.440
<v Speaker 1>in the US, worries about the delta variant and whether

0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:49.360
<v Speaker 1>or not we start to see some kind of pullback. Um,

0:25:49.520 --> 0:25:51.240
<v Speaker 1>we see it already in l A County, you know,

0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:54.119
<v Speaker 1>with masks again, whether or not things start to slow

0:25:54.119 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 1>down and get an impact will ultimately have on these

0:25:56.720 --> 0:25:59.960
<v Speaker 1>college and universities. Yeah, I mean, I wonder it's these

0:26:00.000 --> 0:26:02.199
<v Speaker 1>colleges university have to be watching this very closely and

0:26:02.240 --> 0:26:04.399
<v Speaker 1>asking themselves, Okay, what are we going to do to

0:26:04.520 --> 0:26:06.920
<v Speaker 1>return to in person learning? As Jenna points out on

0:26:06.960 --> 0:26:09.320
<v Speaker 1>their piece, there's so much pressure on these colleges and

0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:11.960
<v Speaker 1>universities to return to in person learning because students who

0:26:12.000 --> 0:26:14.879
<v Speaker 1>are paying full freight want to see that experience that

0:26:14.920 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 1>they're paying for, right exactly, It's hard to when you're

0:26:18.080 --> 0:26:22.360
<v Speaker 1>virtually at home, not experiencing costs right getting the experience.

0:26:22.359 --> 0:26:24.760
<v Speaker 1>It's like I'm watching TV basics, even if you're paying

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:26.879
<v Speaker 1>half of what it costs to go to a traditional college.

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:30.120
<v Speaker 1>Agreed Genital Lauren higher education financial putter up Blooberg News

0:26:30.160 --> 0:26:31.760
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City. Check her out

0:26:31.760 --> 0:26:39.919
<v Speaker 1>at jenit Lauren on Twitter rock a Journal. Yeah but

0:26:40.000 --> 0:26:44.840
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no home please,

0:26:44.960 --> 0:26:53.159
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the revel I want to drive, just driving, baby,

0:26:54.920 --> 0:27:09.760
<v Speaker 1>good questions, trying this drive to the clog radio, TikTok.

0:27:09.800 --> 0:27:12.199
<v Speaker 1>Everybody ten a half minutes left until the end of

0:27:12.240 --> 0:27:14.119
<v Speaker 1>the trading day, and then we're Tim and I were done. No,

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:17.920
<v Speaker 1>we're not done, or you'll be done. I'm gonna be

0:27:17.960 --> 0:27:20.560
<v Speaker 1>sitting in that FDR traffic. Tom Rogers, you can stay

0:27:20.600 --> 0:27:22.800
<v Speaker 1>with me. You can stay with me. Let's get to it,

0:27:22.840 --> 0:27:26.320
<v Speaker 1>because it's been an interesting day. Uh, Tim and I

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:28.320
<v Speaker 1>have been talking. It does feel like some of those

0:27:28.359 --> 0:27:31.720
<v Speaker 1>COVID headlines are weighing on investors minds. Also that a

0:27:31.840 --> 0:27:36.520
<v Speaker 1>decrease in consumer sentiment. Consumers increasingly concerned about maybe inflation.

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:39.120
<v Speaker 1>But we are seeing stocks go to their lows as

0:27:39.160 --> 0:27:41.560
<v Speaker 1>we speak of the day. So we're down about thirty

0:27:41.600 --> 0:27:43.719
<v Speaker 1>one points on the Dow, so that's down almost one percent.

0:27:44.040 --> 0:27:46.359
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to it with Allen Lance Alances, director of

0:27:46.400 --> 0:27:49.240
<v Speaker 1>research at Lance Global dot com, also president of Allan B.

0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Lance and Associates. He joins us on the phone from Toledo, Ohio. Allen,

0:27:53.000 --> 0:27:54.960
<v Speaker 1>it's great to have you back with us. We spoke

0:27:55.000 --> 0:27:57.560
<v Speaker 1>not too long ago, and I'm interested to hear your

0:27:57.560 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 1>take on on today's trade because it's something that Carol

0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:02.480
<v Speaker 1>and I have been talking about throughout the afternoon. The

0:28:02.680 --> 0:28:04.879
<v Speaker 1>rise in cases here in the US, the spread of

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:07.640
<v Speaker 1>the delta variant cruise lines taking ahead. It really does

0:28:07.680 --> 0:28:10.479
<v Speaker 1>seem like investors are a little concerned about what we're

0:28:10.520 --> 0:28:13.880
<v Speaker 1>seeing when it comes to the coronavirus. Yeah, I think

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:15.960
<v Speaker 1>you have that, Tim, And then you also have you know,

0:28:16.119 --> 0:28:19.840
<v Speaker 1>if you look at just see the amount of I

0:28:20.000 --> 0:28:23.240
<v Speaker 1>p o s of late and and and they even

0:28:23.240 --> 0:28:25.800
<v Speaker 1>though they're priced at at some of them the higher end,

0:28:26.240 --> 0:28:31.719
<v Speaker 1>they're just not really uh uh paying off for the investors,

0:28:31.760 --> 0:28:36.040
<v Speaker 1>and they can't hold their their initial price. And and

0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think when you look at that, and

0:28:38.120 --> 0:28:42.120
<v Speaker 1>and and the you know, the supply of new stocks

0:28:42.160 --> 0:28:46.240
<v Speaker 1>coming in, it it's remin of February with the smacks

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:48.920
<v Speaker 1>and and in March. You know, are you saying there's

0:28:48.960 --> 0:28:51.760
<v Speaker 1>just too much slashing around there, Alan, and a lot

0:28:51.760 --> 0:28:54.920
<v Speaker 1>of it maybe not so good exactly, Carl. You know,

0:28:55.280 --> 0:28:58.280
<v Speaker 1>I know last time we talked, coin base came out

0:28:58.320 --> 0:29:01.240
<v Speaker 1>that day and and you know, it went up to

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:05.480
<v Speaker 1>and higher and then you know, as nothing but look

0:29:05.520 --> 0:29:08.520
<v Speaker 1>back and and there's just a lot more risk out

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:12.240
<v Speaker 1>Their investors don't understand the risk they're taking, uh and

0:29:12.240 --> 0:29:16.280
<v Speaker 1>and that and it pushes institutional investors to take more

0:29:16.400 --> 0:29:19.239
<v Speaker 1>risk and and you know without a lot of all

0:29:19.360 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 1>can I push you? Can I push you? Are we

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:24.400
<v Speaker 1>nervous that we're going to go into maybe another round

0:29:24.400 --> 0:29:27.440
<v Speaker 1>of some type of lockdown that will once again put

0:29:27.440 --> 0:29:30.000
<v Speaker 1>pressure on the economy just as we're starting to turn

0:29:30.040 --> 0:29:33.760
<v Speaker 1>around here. Oh that's another negative. It's another headwind. The

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:37.960
<v Speaker 1>situation you know, as it develops in China's is another negative. Yeah,

0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:41.520
<v Speaker 1>there's a number of headwinds that you know, I think

0:29:41.560 --> 0:29:43.080
<v Speaker 1>it is going to make it difficult. And just from

0:29:43.120 --> 0:29:46.000
<v Speaker 1>a valuation standpoint, which is what we go by, as

0:29:46.040 --> 0:29:48.880
<v Speaker 1>you well know, um, you know, we've been taking more

0:29:48.960 --> 0:29:53.200
<v Speaker 1>profits and not finding good alternatives, are finding selective you know,

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:55.960
<v Speaker 1>opportunities that we think are defensive and will hold up

0:29:56.000 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 1>well and and and have some good long term performance.

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:01.520
<v Speaker 1>But there you know, there's not enough of them to

0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:05.400
<v Speaker 1>uh use our proceeds for from the profit taking that

0:30:05.640 --> 0:30:08.760
<v Speaker 1>that we've been uh you know doing the last last

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:11.600
<v Speaker 1>few weeks and whatever that happens. Uh, you know, it's

0:30:11.640 --> 0:30:13.640
<v Speaker 1>not us making a call on the market. It's just

0:30:13.680 --> 0:30:16.640
<v Speaker 1>a more the market more telling us that uh, you know,

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:20.280
<v Speaker 1>it's high and and uh and vulnerable. And I think

0:30:20.320 --> 0:30:22.640
<v Speaker 1>that that's the case not only for what what you're

0:30:22.640 --> 0:30:26.040
<v Speaker 1>mentioning with, uh, you know, even a slowdown here with

0:30:26.800 --> 0:30:29.600
<v Speaker 1>uh you know, the economy's opening up and and and

0:30:29.640 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>what's going on with us as far as the coronavirus,

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 1>but also from the standpoint of you know, inflation and

0:30:37.560 --> 0:30:41.640
<v Speaker 1>is it transient? And basically what what else is going

0:30:41.720 --> 0:30:44.959
<v Speaker 1>on with um, you know, the risk being taken with

0:30:45.280 --> 0:30:48.840
<v Speaker 1>junk bonds for examples. Do you think that inflation is transitory?

0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:52.680
<v Speaker 1>Is fedre Powell continues to say, Now, I I really

0:30:52.720 --> 0:30:55.040
<v Speaker 1>don't you know when you start looking at you know,

0:30:55.680 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>wages and you know the employment situation and and uh,

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:02.600
<v Speaker 1>you know what what we're seeing with energy, which you know,

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:07.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't I don't see you know, changing UM anytime soon. UM.

0:31:07.120 --> 0:31:10.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, I can't imagine, you know, I you know

0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 1>you're not going to have the increases that we've had

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:16.320
<v Speaker 1>because some of its supply chain with US as far

0:31:16.400 --> 0:31:19.720
<v Speaker 1>as with the pandemic. But uh, you know, I think

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:24.120
<v Speaker 1>it's not only higher than what you know is being reported,

0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:27.680
<v Speaker 1>but it's also it's it's there's a much more stickiness

0:31:27.680 --> 0:31:29.920
<v Speaker 1>to it than what people think. Is it because a

0:31:30.000 --> 0:31:34.120
<v Speaker 1>wage increases or I guess I ask is what changed

0:31:34.600 --> 0:31:39.200
<v Speaker 1>from our pre pandemic world when it came to commodity

0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:42.520
<v Speaker 1>supply chains versus where we are today. I mean, I

0:31:42.560 --> 0:31:44.520
<v Speaker 1>know a lot happened during the pandemic. I'm not being

0:31:44.560 --> 0:31:48.040
<v Speaker 1>stupid here, but I'm trying to understand what fundamentally has

0:31:48.160 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 1>changed that as we get back to quote unquote um normal.

0:31:52.720 --> 0:31:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Why isn't it we just kind of get back to

0:31:54.360 --> 0:31:58.600
<v Speaker 1>where we were and what were the supply constraints back there?

0:31:58.720 --> 0:32:01.760
<v Speaker 1>Remind us? And if that's a good question, Carol, and

0:32:01.760 --> 0:32:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and and you know, I was afraid I was going

0:32:03.840 --> 0:32:05.560
<v Speaker 1>to get all the social media is in it yet Master,

0:32:05.680 --> 0:32:10.240
<v Speaker 1>you are stupid. The one, you know, the one you

0:32:10.280 --> 0:32:14.240
<v Speaker 1>know energy energy alone, you know, is it's changed dramatically

0:32:14.320 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 1>where you know we had uh we're independent and uh

0:32:18.640 --> 0:32:22.720
<v Speaker 1>really uh you know, had control over our our destiny

0:32:22.760 --> 0:32:25.840
<v Speaker 1>there and and um, you know, if that continues to

0:32:26.080 --> 0:32:30.240
<v Speaker 1>to to progress the way it has uh in in

0:32:30.280 --> 0:32:32.840
<v Speaker 1>the past, you know eight months, Uh, you know, it's

0:32:32.880 --> 0:32:35.360
<v Speaker 1>just gonna go higher and higher. And then you A

0:32:35.360 --> 0:32:38.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of it is pandemic related and supply chain and

0:32:38.440 --> 0:32:42.160
<v Speaker 1>and and the employment situation with the the you know,

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:46.640
<v Speaker 1>as far as uh uh hand out and what have you.

0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:49.960
<v Speaker 1>But you know, part of it is is something that's

0:32:50.000 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 1>not going to change just you know, pre pandemic or

0:32:52.800 --> 0:32:55.360
<v Speaker 1>or post pandemic, even if we don't have the you know,

0:32:55.440 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 1>the delta. Uh you know, as bad as as as

0:32:58.240 --> 0:33:01.600
<v Speaker 1>what you know might seem right now. So where are

0:33:01.640 --> 0:33:03.880
<v Speaker 1>you seeing opportunities in the market right now? You said

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:06.960
<v Speaker 1>you've been selling a little bit um, but I'm wondering

0:33:07.200 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 1>where you're deploying that cash. Yeah, we've been buying a

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:12.800
<v Speaker 1>little bit, we've been selling more so we're net sellers,

0:33:12.840 --> 0:33:16.920
<v Speaker 1>but we're still finding some attractive uh tim Like Ball

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:20.480
<v Speaker 1>Corps is a company as Symbols BLLL that's been around

0:33:20.520 --> 0:33:23.720
<v Speaker 1>for for ages and and the stock is down from

0:33:23.720 --> 0:33:26.080
<v Speaker 1>a hundred and five to uh you know, the load

0:33:26.120 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 1>of bit eighties and and we recommend it a few

0:33:28.800 --> 0:33:31.400
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago. And and you know, I think, not only

0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:35.000
<v Speaker 1>do they have a great situation and that there they

0:33:35.000 --> 0:33:37.880
<v Speaker 1>put in some new manufacturing that's very efficient, so the

0:33:37.960 --> 0:33:40.800
<v Speaker 1>numbers don't look at great now but will help profit

0:33:40.880 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 1>margins next year and the year after. But they also

0:33:43.520 --> 0:33:46.600
<v Speaker 1>have a nice aerospace division that's really not being noticed

0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:49.400
<v Speaker 1>in Wall Street that that's growing gangbusters. So so I

0:33:49.440 --> 0:33:51.959
<v Speaker 1>think a company like that can do well, um, you know,

0:33:52.040 --> 0:33:54.720
<v Speaker 1>even in in in a in the sluggish or or

0:33:54.800 --> 0:33:56.960
<v Speaker 1>downward work. And those are the type of things we're

0:33:57.000 --> 0:34:00.640
<v Speaker 1>looking at, things that have some defensive capa abilities where

0:34:00.640 --> 0:34:02.560
<v Speaker 1>it's about an all or none, you know, betting on

0:34:02.600 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 1>the market and hoping that you know, there's a greater

0:34:06.040 --> 0:34:09.320
<v Speaker 1>fool to buy the stock that you just purchased. Hey, Allen,

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:11.760
<v Speaker 1>we caught up with John Rodgers of an Aerial Investments

0:34:11.760 --> 0:34:15.040
<v Speaker 1>earlier this week Deep Value Guy uh and did talk

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:17.760
<v Speaker 1>about probably the likelihood of some kind of tem percent

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:20.359
<v Speaker 1>correction here are you anticipating that for the market, see

0:34:20.680 --> 0:34:25.120
<v Speaker 1>for equities particularly, Yeah, we really don't, you know, you know,

0:34:25.160 --> 0:34:28.080
<v Speaker 1>as far as predict you know, I think it's impossible

0:34:28.120 --> 0:34:30.200
<v Speaker 1>to say. All we can say is that, you know,

0:34:30.239 --> 0:34:33.400
<v Speaker 1>when we're finding less you know, bargains and opportunities to

0:34:33.440 --> 0:34:36.440
<v Speaker 1>buy and and and things are hitting our price targets

0:34:36.440 --> 0:34:40.600
<v Speaker 1>and we're taking profits, we automatically start getting more defensive

0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 1>and build up cash. And whenever that's happened in the past,

0:34:43.640 --> 0:34:47.200
<v Speaker 1>typically we're early. But eventually, yeah, there's gonna be a pullback.

0:34:47.239 --> 0:34:49.400
<v Speaker 1>And if there's not a pullback. I think it's gonna

0:34:49.400 --> 0:34:51.880
<v Speaker 1>be even a worst case scenario. If the market get

0:34:52.080 --> 0:34:54.600
<v Speaker 1>and going straight up, you know, as far as in

0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:56.600
<v Speaker 1>the next year, then then I think we could have

0:34:56.680 --> 0:35:00.000
<v Speaker 1>much more than just a pullback. So so yeah, I would.

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:02.680
<v Speaker 1>I'd like to see a correction. But you know, it's

0:35:02.719 --> 0:35:06.320
<v Speaker 1>just impossible to predict the magnitude or or the timing.

0:35:06.400 --> 0:35:09.120
<v Speaker 1>But you know, we we let the markets tell us

0:35:09.120 --> 0:35:13.319
<v Speaker 1>by our valuation parameters. All Right, Gonna leave it there. Hey, Allen,

0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:15.160
<v Speaker 1>have a good week in Allen Lance, director of Research

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:17.359
<v Speaker 1>at Lance Global dot com, President of Allen B. Lance

0:35:17.360 --> 0:35:21.840
<v Speaker 1>and Associates, on the phone from Toledo, Ohio. Thanks for

0:35:21.880 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:27.920
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:35:27.920 --> 0:35:30.520
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0:35:30.640 --> 0:35:33.400
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