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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Peroult.

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Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: You can follow betting pros on Twitter Betting Pros NFL.

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Speaker 1: This podcast every morning being brought to you by our

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Speaker 1: great friends at BETMGM. You guys can find this podcast

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Speaker 1: on YouTube wherever you get your podcasts, and on well

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Speaker 1: now kind of a TikTok one play of the day.

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Speaker 1: If you're on that app, you can search the Daily

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Speaker 1: Juice Now. We had a pretty good day yesterday to

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Speaker 1: one in one. The soccer bet was wrong. How did

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Speaker 1: Team USA lose that? But we don't count that three

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Speaker 1: nothing for Team USA? Hi? What Sweden was the question,

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Speaker 1: not Team USA whether they were going to score or not. Instead,

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Speaker 1: Team USA gets blanked in their first game at the Olympics,

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Speaker 1: so that kind of stinks. We will have Olympic betting,

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Speaker 1: by the way, in case you're curious, I will have

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Speaker 1: plays on the Olympics and I'll have a play coming

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Speaker 1: up for Team USA basketball. Both men and women will

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Speaker 1: have a lot of things going for the Olympics. In

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Speaker 1: the bigger events. Golf will have a golf bet we'll have.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how much track and field or swimming

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Speaker 1: I'll do, but I whatever I can get down, I

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Speaker 1: will get down for the Olympics. So that is all

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Speaker 1: still to come here for this week and next week

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Speaker 1: for the daily juice as we begin the Olympic Games.

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Speaker 1: We went to one in one yesterday. We got the

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Speaker 1: last at bat Austin Meadows, two out bases loaded, bottom

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Speaker 1: of the ninth o two count. He gets a single

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Speaker 1: up the middle for our total to come in. So

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Speaker 1: we cashed on the over for the Orioles and the

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Speaker 1: Rays got the over. Eight there the Astros pushed, they

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Speaker 1: were up two to one after five, and then their

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Speaker 1: bullpen and blew the whole damn game. Indians win when

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Speaker 1: there's that much public money coming in on one side. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's just you gotta go the other way. And I

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Speaker 1: don't know these things I bet overnight, so I have

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Speaker 1: no idea what the public is going to be on.

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Speaker 1: I can't. I mean, I don't want to go with

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Speaker 1: the public. But I'm seeing the game the same way.

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Speaker 1: They saw the run line for the game, and they

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Speaker 1: bet the run line for the game. They bet it

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Speaker 1: at ninety six percent at DraftKings, assuming most books saw

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Speaker 1: a very similar action. Everyone was on the minus one

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Speaker 1: and a half of the Astros and the Indians I

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Speaker 1: believe won the game outright. I stopped watching it after

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Speaker 1: the fifth inning it was two to one, but I

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Speaker 1: think the Indians scored a bunch runs in the sixth

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Speaker 1: inning and they covered that plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: I know they covered the plus one and a half

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Speaker 1: for them because I saw someone post that they cashed.

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Speaker 1: So Cleveland comes up with that, and that's a huge

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Speaker 1: win for the books. Whenever you it's that lopsided, it's

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Speaker 1: just I don't say always fade the public, but in

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Speaker 1: that way, yeah, it's probably a good time to fade

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Speaker 1: the public. So we went one in one last night

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Speaker 1: on bets on the podcast and we wound up getting

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Speaker 1: one and one on the no and yes runs in

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Speaker 1: the first inning. I will come back, most likely and

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Speaker 1: have that pretty much a yes or no throughout the

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Speaker 1: entire rest of the week until we kind of get

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Speaker 1: There might be some days where I don't have the

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Speaker 1: time to do it, but if I can jump on

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel, bettingfros dot com slash chat to get

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Speaker 1: into that to get the invites or the link which

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Speaker 1: is underneath me here on YouTube. You guys can click

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Speaker 1: on it and it'll take you right over to the

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Speaker 1: Discord channel and I will post it in there. That's

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Speaker 1: where I post everything, most of our stuff, and we

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Speaker 1: can do that. By the way, episode two of The

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Speaker 1: Sharp's Report is out. But there's been some funkiness going

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Speaker 1: on here with all the podcast platforms. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what's up. Okay, we're looking into it, but as of

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Speaker 1: tape time, it has not posted to Spotify. So now

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Speaker 1: Spotify's a mess. Apple has been a mess, and now

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Speaker 1: Spotify is a mess. I don't know if people are

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Speaker 1: on vacation or what the heck's going on. But luckily

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Speaker 1: anchor our hosting site for the podcast that works. So

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Speaker 1: if you go to my pot to my Twitter account

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Speaker 1: at sports Talk Matt when I posted it inside the

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Speaker 1: Discord channel as well for the Daily Juice. But you

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Speaker 1: can get the second edition of The Sharp's Report, which

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Speaker 1: is a one hour or forty five minute conversation with

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Speaker 1: Chris Andrews and I from the Sports from the Sports

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Speaker 1: Book at the South Point here in Las Vegas. Chris Andrews,

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Speaker 1: an author of a phenomenal book called and Then One

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Speaker 1: Day about his life in gambling forty years behind the counter,

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Speaker 1: and we talk about the future of the industry and

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Speaker 1: what's happening down the pike in the NFL, and automation

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Speaker 1: and operating an independent book in the age of big

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Speaker 1: business in big books from all over global books. So

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Speaker 1: really fun talk with Chris Andrews. That is out right now.

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Speaker 1: You guys can just go and search that go to

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Speaker 1: if you're interested. Hopefully by the time you're listening to

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice, you guys can listen to the Sharps Report.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know. It's a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: weird time right now, a little frustrating to be quite honest,

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Speaker 1: when we go to this. So all right, so two

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Speaker 1: one in one yesterday, winning day yesterday. Let's build on

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Speaker 1: it here for a Thursday. Okay, So we have the

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Speaker 1: three m starting today. I have got two bets on

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Speaker 1: that to give you, although it's a half a unit

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Speaker 1: that's split in half. I've got two baseball plays to

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Speaker 1: give you as well here and then we probably have

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Speaker 1: the yes or no runs in the first inning on

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel. Like I said, let's start with the

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Speaker 1: three M here, and let's start with Tony Fenow because

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Speaker 1: I got two bets on Tony Fenow. So last week

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Speaker 1: Tony Fenow played pretty well over in England at the

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Speaker 1: Open Championship. He was a guy that some people thought

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Speaker 1: he was going to be a top twenty, top fifteen,

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Speaker 1: top ten, top of finisher because these majors Tony Fenow

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Speaker 1: has been sort of him and Louis Jusseys and they're

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Speaker 1: always competitive, but they're not actually winning these things. Royal

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Speaker 1: Saint George's okay, you're coming off of that. But the

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Speaker 1: first the previous two tournaments for Tony before the Open,

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Speaker 1: he missed the cut. So he's angry, right, He's mad.

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Speaker 1: He goes up and down, this is what he does.

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Speaker 1: But he was really really good, consistent at the Open Championship.

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Speaker 1: So if you look at his history here at the

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Speaker 1: three M at TPC Twin Cities, he is a guy

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Speaker 1: who plays very well on this tournament. At this tournament,

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Speaker 1: he tied for third last year, tied for twenty third

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Speaker 1: the year before. In twenty twenty one, he is having

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Speaker 1: an ok year, tied for eighth of the PGA, tied

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Speaker 1: for twenty at the Charles Swab at the Memorial and

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Speaker 1: type for thirty second. But then Tony Fenow missed the

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Speaker 1: cut at the US Open, missed the cut of the Travelers,

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Speaker 1: and then tied for fifteenth at the US Open. This

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Speaker 1: field is not that deep. Dustin Johnson's the favorite here,

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Speaker 1: but Tony Fenow is either the second or the third

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Speaker 1: odds on favorite to win this golf tournament, right. I

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Speaker 1: don't think Tony Fenow wins this thing. However, if you

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Speaker 1: look at the way he played at the three M

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Speaker 1: last year sixty five sixty six, sixty nine sixty eight

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Speaker 1: sixteen under par, tied for third. Here at this event,

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Speaker 1: you don't have a lot of the star studded players

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Speaker 1: out there that you normally would have. I think this

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Speaker 1: is a guy who you can back and expect to

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Speaker 1: play well, and I think he's a guy you have

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Speaker 1: to pay attention to if you want to bet him

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Speaker 1: to win it. I don't hate it. But instead, what

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do here at Tony Fenw is I'm going

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Speaker 1: to bet him at BETMGM. And you can take the

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Speaker 1: bet MGM offer, the twenty buck bet to win one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars on any event. You can take this I

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Speaker 1: would probably put it on the second bet using that

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Speaker 1: promo code Juice one hundred when you sign up for

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Speaker 1: a new account. But Tony fenw to come in the

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Speaker 1: top ten at BETMGM, ties are paid out okay, top

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Speaker 1: ten including ties at plus one ten for Tony Fenw

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Speaker 1: at the three m quarter unit. On that you could

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Speaker 1: I also have another quarter unit play on Tony f

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Speaker 1: Now in the top five at plus two to seventy

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Speaker 1: five at BETMGM at a quarter unit. That's where I

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Speaker 1: would use the bet MGM offer to put twenty bucks

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Speaker 1: down on Tony f Now at plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 1: You win one hundred dollars okay. If he doesn't come

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Speaker 1: in the top five, you win one hundred dollars. If

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Speaker 1: he does, you cash out at plus two seventy five,

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Speaker 1: which isn't bad at all. You win your wager okay,

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Speaker 1: So it's kind of a risk free bet. You almost

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Speaker 1: wanting to miss that top five in some ways at

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Speaker 1: plus two seventy five, But you can win your wager

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Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five for a quarter unit to

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Speaker 1: win one hundred dollars win or lose using the promo

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Speaker 1: code Juice one hundred when you sign up for a

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Speaker 1: new account. So use it on Tony Fenw top five

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Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five or Tony fen Now top

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Speaker 1: ten at plus one ten at bet MGM quarter unit

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Speaker 1: on each here for the three M. And I do

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Speaker 1: think this is a golf course he plays very well at.

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Speaker 1: I think he is excited to kind of come back here.

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Speaker 1: And again the field just isn't the same as you

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Speaker 1: would expect. It's not a typical PGA Tour field. Dustin Johnson,

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Speaker 1: Louis Usseysen, Tony Fenow, Patrick Reid, Matthew Wolf, Bubba Watson.

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Speaker 1: There is a big liability on Bubba Watson right now

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Speaker 1: for most books, including bet MGM, which reported that well

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Speaker 1: yesterday that they've got a lot of money on Bubba Watson.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be pulling it against Bubba Watson. So maybe

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Speaker 1: we'll look to fade Bubba a little bit in head

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Speaker 1: to heads later on in this golf tournament. But Tony

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Speaker 1: fen Now top ten plus one ten, Tony Fenw top

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Speaker 1: five plus two to seventy five quarter unit on each

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Speaker 1: of those bets for Fenw at the three M to

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Speaker 1: play well tied for third last year, maybe he wins

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Speaker 1: the thing this time around, but given his unfortunate consistency

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Speaker 1: of being the bridesmaid and not the winner of these tournaments,

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Speaker 1: him coming in tied for second wouldn't be shocking at

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Speaker 1: all here at the three M. So let's not bet

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Speaker 1: them to win the thing, but instead top five and

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Speaker 1: top ten for Tony Finow at the three M, which

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Speaker 1: does begin today in Minneapolis in Minnesota for TPC up

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Speaker 1: there in the Twin Cities. Okay, let's go to baseball

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Speaker 1: Twins and the Angels. All right, So I've been eyeballing

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Speaker 1: and I've been waiting to find the right time to

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Speaker 1: get involved here with a game involving the Angels for

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Speaker 1: them and the Angels in the first five. So the

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Speaker 1: Angels first five over under this season is fifty two

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Speaker 1: thirty six and six. This is from Odds Shark their

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Speaker 1: first five records, and they compile this stuff, which is

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Speaker 1: really really helpful. You've got fifty two thirty six and

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Speaker 1: six to the over. That's fifty nine percent of the

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Speaker 1: time for the first five over to hit for the Angels.

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Speaker 1: The Twins are fifty forty one in four. That's fifty

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Speaker 1: four point nine percent of the time today, we've got

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Speaker 1: the Twins and the Angels playing, and if you take

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Speaker 1: a look at what we've seen over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of games here, Look, I don't want to blindly say

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Speaker 1: that we're going to come in and just follow those numbers,

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Speaker 1: but it's been interesting to see how these numbers could

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Speaker 1: can really affect what happens in a game. So it's

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Speaker 1: La at Minnesota and Andrew Haney against Kent and Mejeda.

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Speaker 1: You've got a lefty pitcher in Haney who's five and

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Speaker 1: seven with a five point five six ERA. Mejda's four

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Speaker 1: and Ray with a four point seventy to one Elright,

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Speaker 1: so you got pitchers who generally give up some runs.

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Speaker 1: You have the eighth the Twins who are at home.

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Speaker 1: The Twins home record right now to overs is twenty two,

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Speaker 1: twenty two and three. It's fifty percent of the time

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Speaker 1: the first five over is going in and the Angels

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Speaker 1: on the road twenty three, eighteen and four to the

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Speaker 1: over all. Right, these play these guys who are pitching.

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Speaker 1: Hany is a left handed starting pitcher, and the Twins

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Speaker 1: for the most part, hit left handed starting pitching pretty

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Speaker 1: darn well against lefties. This year. They are slugging three

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Speaker 1: fourteen sorry four to forty five against four eighteen. Their

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Speaker 1: ops is seven sixty versus seven thirty four. They've gotten

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Speaker 1: forty eight home runs to eighty eight home runs against righties,

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Speaker 1: but they have twice as many at bats against So

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Speaker 1: they have forty eight home runs in one thousand and

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Speaker 1: eighty seven at bats against lefties. They've got eighty eight

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Speaker 1: home runs against two thousand eighty six at bats against righties,

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Speaker 1: so they're hitting lefties really well. They are getting extra

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Speaker 1: base hits fifty six doubles off lefties compared to ninety

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Speaker 1: six against against right hand and pitching typical team that

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Speaker 1: likes to put, you know, put runs up. They're able

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Speaker 1: to score quite a bit. And Mejeda, I mean Haini

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Speaker 1: got hit pretty hard in his last start. He gave

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Speaker 1: up four earned runs in four innings against these Seattle Mariners,

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Speaker 1: so they've seen him a sorry sorry against Seattle. Not

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Speaker 1: another twins sorry against the Seattle Mariners against the Red Sox,

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Speaker 1: who went five and a third six innings, three earned

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Speaker 1: runs against the Yankees three innings, five hits, seven earned

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Speaker 1: runs eras five point five to six. Not great, okay,

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Speaker 1: So he's been hit consistently here. And the Twins are

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Speaker 1: at home. They're twenty two and twenty five at home.

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Speaker 1: The Angels are nineteen and twenty six away. They've got

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Speaker 1: the pop obviously, which show a tani in this lineup,

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Speaker 1: so you can potentially have home runs. And Kenta Mejeda

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Speaker 1: hasn't been great, to be quite honest, you look at

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Speaker 1: history how he's done five innings, three earned run in

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Speaker 1: his last start against Detroit. The two previous starts were

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Speaker 1: very good five and six innings against Detroit and Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: give up no earned runs, but against the White Sox

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Speaker 1: eight hits, seven earned runs in four and two thirds.

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Speaker 1: So we need Mehita to give up a couple of

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Speaker 1: runs here the total is five, and then we need

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Speaker 1: four runs coming in here from the Twins against kind

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Speaker 1: of a rocky pitcher from the Angels. It is juice

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Speaker 1: to the under. But given the numbers we've seen with

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Speaker 1: the first five here with the Angels and in the

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Speaker 1: end the Mariners, when it comes to where they are

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Speaker 1: profitable in the first five again, Angels number two in

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Speaker 1: baseball first five overs fifty nine point one percent of

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Speaker 1: the time. Twins one, two, three, four, five six in

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Speaker 1: Major League Baseball to the over in the first five

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Speaker 1: fifty to forty, one to four for them fifty four

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Speaker 1: percent of the time. We're going over five first five

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Speaker 1: twins in the Angels at minus one zero five for

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Speaker 1: the first bet for a half a unit second bet Angels,

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Speaker 1: and the mayor A's in the Mariners, like I was

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Speaker 1: talking about, the total is four and a half. It

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Speaker 1: is juice to the under. And the reason is these

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Speaker 1: are two of the worst teams in terms of where

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Speaker 1: they are, and the A's are horrific on the road

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Speaker 1: to the first five over Oakland fifteen, twenty four and four.

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Speaker 1: That's thirty eight percent of the time to the over

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Speaker 1: in the first five. They don't score early all that often.

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Speaker 1: And the Mariners. Look, the Mariners are the best team

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Speaker 1: right now, but if you look at the way the

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Speaker 1: this is really a fade on the A's. They're seven

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Speaker 1: and three to the over over the last ten games

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Speaker 1: in the first five, and I totally get you may

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Speaker 1: look at, you know, the number one team in baseball,

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Speaker 1: the Mariners, but they're not great when it comes to

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Speaker 1: what they do at home. Okay, they're okay on the road,

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Speaker 1: they're tremendous. They give up a lot of runs early

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Speaker 1: in games on the road. At the Mariners on the

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Speaker 1: road are thirty one, eleven and three to the first

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Speaker 1: five over, but at home they're twenty three, twenty three

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Speaker 1: and three. That's fifty percent, literally, And over the last

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Speaker 1: ten the Mariners are five, four and one to the

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Speaker 1: first five over. So you've got a team in the

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Speaker 1: A's who do not score early and who have been

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Speaker 1: horrific over the last ten oh seven and three to

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Speaker 1: the over in the first five. And you've got the

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Speaker 1: Mariners who are great on the road, which gives them

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Speaker 1: a great record, number one record first five over, but

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Speaker 1: not because of their home record. And they are at

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Speaker 1: home here today tonight for this game. And so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go under four and a half at minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty five for Oakland at Seattle. This is a start

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Speaker 1: between Sean mehda uh and Chris Flexen and Uh. This

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Speaker 1: is a you know, two ok pitchers three point two eight,

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Speaker 1: three point three five, not outstanding, but they've both pitched

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Speaker 1: fairly well over the last three or four starts, so

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Speaker 1: it could be a little bit hairy. But the total

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Speaker 1: is eight. I got four and a half shaded towards

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Speaker 1: the under. We're going under four and a half at

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty five for the A's in the Mariners,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna hope for a pitching duel and not

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Speaker 1: a lot of offense and like a three to one

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Speaker 1: score after five innings for us to go ahead in

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Speaker 1: cash between the A's and the Mariners under four and

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Speaker 1: a half at minus one twenty five for a half

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Speaker 1: a unit. Okay, So again the plays for today on

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Speaker 1: a Thursday, Tony Fenw top ten plus one ten, Tony

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Speaker 1: Fenw Top five plus two, seventy five Twins, Angels first

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Speaker 1: five over five at minus one oh five, A's Mariners

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Speaker 1: under four and a half at minus one twenty five

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit. My name is Matt Parrelz.

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Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each and every morning it's the Daily Juice podcast here

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Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot com. Brought you I bet MGM per

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Speaker 1: scorn