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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Cleveland Fed names former Goldman partner as president. Beth Hammock

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Speaker 2: will be starting on August twenty first. The incoming Cleveland

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Speaker 2: FED chief left Goldman Sachs in early of twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: So following up on that news for the Cleveland Fed,

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Speaker 3: let's check out with Steve Matthews, Fed, a reserve reporter

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Speaker 3: for Bloomberg News, joining us from Atlanta via zoom. Steve

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Speaker 3: tell us about the news coming out of the Cleveland Fed.

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Speaker 4: So, Beth Hammick is the co head. Recently, it was

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Speaker 4: the co head of the global financing at Goldman Sachs.

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Speaker 4: And she will be joining the Cleveland Fed as president

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Speaker 4: in August, and she will be a voter this year,

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Speaker 4: so it should be interesting. The Cleveland Fed has been

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Speaker 4: kind of a leader among the twelve FED banks in diversity.

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Speaker 4: The first woman ever to have had a FED bank

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Speaker 4: was at the Cleveland Fed. This is a fourth woman following.

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Speaker 4: She replaces Loretta Mester, who was very much a force

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Speaker 4: to be reckoned with on the FED and generally viewed

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Speaker 4: as moderately hawkish. So we don't really know how Hemmick

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Speaker 4: is going to going to be. But it's also a

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Speaker 4: note and you know, this will probably cause some discussion,

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Speaker 4: possibly even on my Congress, but this will be the

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Speaker 4: third significant FED hire from Wall Street. I mean, the

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Speaker 4: Saint Louis FED just hired someone who from a hedge

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Speaker 4: fund background, and of course Neil Cashcari at one point

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Speaker 4: worked at Pimco, So it's interesting. You know, the FED

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Speaker 4: obviously cares a lot about transmission of monetary policy and

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Speaker 4: understanding the nuts and bolts of Wall Street and regulation

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Speaker 4: is really important. So this is a kind of a

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Speaker 4: deep Wall Street background and understanding that she'll bring to

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Speaker 4: the job.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, talk a little bit more about her resume, because

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Speaker 2: not only Goldman, but she was also a part of

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Speaker 2: TABAC right the Treasury what's my acronym here on this one?

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Speaker 2: But I know that because I interviewed her talking about

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Speaker 2: that was the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. What is that?

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Speaker 3: Like?

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Speaker 2: How did you play a role in that?

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Speaker 4: That's right. I mean, it's essentially it's kind of a

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Speaker 4: committee that deals with the Treasury Department and advising them,

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Speaker 4: and she led that committee, and she was considered that

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Speaker 4: Goldman as a leading candidate to be chief financial officer.

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Speaker 4: She didn't get that job a few years ago, but

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Speaker 4: she's had like a ton of different high ranking positions

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Speaker 4: at Goldman, and you know, certainly her experience dealing with

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Speaker 4: regulators and understanding the regulatory background that's going to be

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Speaker 4: helpful at the FED, which is a big bank regulator,

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Speaker 4: including of Goldman, although she presumably would not be involved.

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Speaker 4: That's done by the New York FED.

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Speaker 3: It just enlighten me, Steve. Is there any approval process

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Speaker 3: here for this appointment or is it no?

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Speaker 4: There is? I mean the way the process works, they

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Speaker 4: started a search nationwide search last November. It involved the

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Speaker 4: six directors other than the bankers. The bankers on the

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Speaker 4: who are directors of the Cleveland FED are not involved.

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Speaker 4: And then after they select a candidate, that candidate then

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Speaker 4: has to be interviewed by the board of Governors. And

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Speaker 4: right now Chris Waller is the governor who used to

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Speaker 4: work for the Saint Louis FED and was appointed by Trump.

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Speaker 4: He kind of leads the effort to discreen presidents, but

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Speaker 4: the board will vote on them and they have to

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Speaker 4: be approved by the FED Board of Directors, the Board

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Speaker 4: of Governors.

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Speaker 2: We've interviewed her on TV before she was still a Goldman.

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Speaker 2: She's such a firecracker. She's only fifty two. Such a firecracker.

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Speaker 2: Walkers through sort of the district of Cleveland, like not

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Speaker 2: the actual city, but in terms of the FED, Like,

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Speaker 2: how is that region doing?

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Speaker 4: The Cleveland region has always been kind of a min

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Speaker 4: it's a US about region Ohio. It's not one of

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Speaker 4: the uh, you know, each of the twelve regions are different,

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Speaker 4: but this is a region that's that's more suffering and

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Speaker 4: more struggling, and there are a lot of issues like

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Speaker 4: with education and uh, you know, with with not having

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Speaker 4: the best jobs, and so it's a tough it's a

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Speaker 4: tough district, Steve.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, she's a wall streeter, as you

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Speaker 3: mentioned before, and there's been a couple of those in

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Speaker 3: the past. Is does that get pushed back anywhere? I mean,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not sure who would rather have than somebody

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Speaker 3: from financial services at a federal reserve job. But where

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Speaker 3: do they typically come from.

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Speaker 4: There has been some pushback. I mean, there are there

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Speaker 4: are groups that are kind of the more some of

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Speaker 4: the liberal think tanks, and I think Elizabeth Warren has

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Speaker 4: occasionally weighed in h of the Senator in opposition of

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Speaker 4: there being too many uh you know, Goldman in Wall

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Speaker 4: Street alums. I mean the uh that there have been

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Speaker 4: quite a few.

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Speaker 5: Uh.

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Speaker 4: The former head of the New York Fed uh was

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Speaker 4: a Goldman economist, and uh Robert Kaplan, who was with

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Speaker 4: the Dallas Fed uh was a Goldman Uh you know, alum.

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Speaker 4: So it's like sometimes there has been criticism that you know,

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Speaker 4: the FED is like too close to Wall Street. But

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Speaker 4: you know, as you say, I mean that that the

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Speaker 4: flip side is you really need to understand the nuts

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Speaker 4: and bolts if you're going to regulate it, if you're

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Speaker 4: going to understand monetary policy transmission and all the the

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Speaker 4: ins and outs of of q E and QT and

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Speaker 4: those kinds of things.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we know that Mester has been on the

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Speaker 2: more hawkish side of the FED. Best guess and I

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Speaker 2: know you said we don't know, so okay, best guess

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Speaker 2: is to where Methamma, good lie.

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Speaker 4: But best guess is that she would be hawkish. And

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Speaker 4: that's just because there seems to have been those presidents

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Speaker 4: that have come in from Wall Street have tended to

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Speaker 4: lean a little bit hawkish, and the Cleveland Fed over

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Speaker 4: the years has leaned hawkish, and sometimes the directors of

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Speaker 4: the fed banks like the tradition. So it's like, for example,

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Speaker 4: Kansas City is almost always leaned hawkish, and it's like

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Speaker 4: you go back a year after year after year, and

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Speaker 4: whoever the president is, they're leading hawk and that's been

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Speaker 4: true at Cleveland as well. So it's like if you

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Speaker 4: were betting, the odds would be well over fifty percent

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Speaker 4: that she's going to be hawkish.

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Speaker 3: Very good, Steve Matthews, I thank you so much. We

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Speaker 3: appreciate Steve Matthews, fored Reserve reporter for Bloomberg News. Again,

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Speaker 3: the feder Reserve Bank of Cleveland a point at Beth Hammock,

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Speaker 3: a Goldman Sachs Group a veteran, as its next president. Hammock,

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Speaker 3: who was most recently co out of global Financing at

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Speaker 3: the Wall Street Heavyweight, has more than three decades of

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Speaker 3: experience in finance, capital markets, and risk management. She replaced

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Speaker 3: Loretta Mester, who was stepping down June thirtieth, after eight

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Speaker 3: decade in the post.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting because we've also reported a lot about the

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Speaker 2: revolving door of women executives over at Goldman Sachs and

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Speaker 2: sort of the why behind it and kind of where

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Speaker 2: they wind up going. And now we know where one

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Speaker 2: of them goes up to the Velt.

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Speaker 3: Yep, very cool.

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Speaker 3: Let's pivot to oh, I don't know energy, there's some stuff.

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Speaker 3: Can you take the ball here?

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Speaker 2: Because oh yeah, okay, So the latest. So yesterday we

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Speaker 2: got the news that the Hash shareholders approved the able

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Speaker 2: with Chevron. There's still an excellon situation there with the

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Speaker 2: right of first refusal for an ACCID in Guyana. However,

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Speaker 2: today we get another big deal Conicco Phillips buying Marathon

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Speaker 2: Oil for twenty two and a half billion dollars and

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Speaker 2: that's including about four billion dollars in debt. I'm getting

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Speaker 2: a slew of analyst notes coming out. It's quite interesting

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Speaker 2: because the question seems to be does this make Conic

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Speaker 2: go bigger or better? And I think that's a really

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Speaker 2: interesting point because a lot of them and a that

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Speaker 2: we've seen has been making them better and bigger, and

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Speaker 2: you have to wonder what the distinction is here with Conico.

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Speaker 2: So Vincent Piazza is Boomberg Intelligence senior equity research analysts

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Speaker 2: for oil and gas. He joins us, what do you think,

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Speaker 2: bigger or better?

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Speaker 6: I think a little bit of both. It makes them

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Speaker 6: better in certain basins because it does consolidate opportunity set

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Speaker 6: in places like the Delaware, the Bak and even the

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Speaker 6: Eagle Forward, but it does extend the franchise into other

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Speaker 6: areas that probably dilutes some of that narrative. You know,

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Speaker 6: the narrative has been consolidate streamline leverage to what you

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Speaker 6: do best. We saw that in the Permian. We saw

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Speaker 6: that for natural gas as well, with Southwestern and Chesapeake

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Speaker 6: likely getting together. So in this case, you have some

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Speaker 6: pieces of that Marathon pie that don't really may not

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Speaker 6: work as well within the broader Conico platform, but that's

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Speaker 6: an opportunity set to divest some of those pieces and

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Speaker 6: really concentrate around Texas and the Bakan. But the bocket

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Speaker 6: itself is maturing as well. What you're really getting here

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Speaker 6: is a ton of free cash flow as well. You know,

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Speaker 6: this is consistent with the formula, the theme, the narrative

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Speaker 6: that we've heard and seen in the past, the acquirer

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Speaker 6: you U being a slightly higher multiple to do an

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Speaker 6: all stock transaction by the company, bring those assets, those

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Speaker 6: cash flow generating assets into the platform, lower the spend,

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Speaker 6: generate that free cash flow, be able to boost the

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Speaker 6: ordinary dividend and also the supplemental dividend, and support the

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Speaker 6: stock by buying back shares as well. And in this

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Speaker 6: case financially, financially, engineering wise, it actually works out right.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Vince, I noticed there's a lot of M and

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Speaker 3: A stuff going on in your energy world here. Do

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Speaker 3: the regulators care about this stuff?

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Speaker 6: Oh yeah, oh yeah, they definitely do care. They will

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Speaker 6: take a look at this. Look we wrote about this

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Speaker 6: this morning earlier this morning. This will take a They

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Speaker 6: will take a serious look at this. They will increase

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Speaker 6: the scrutiny of all of these deals. I know that

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Speaker 6: they're looking to close this by four q twenty two,

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Speaker 6: twenty four. I think that's kind of tight. We have

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Speaker 6: seen other deals close Exxon closing Pioneer around that same

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Speaker 6: time as the as As a projected closing date as well.

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Speaker 6: But there are other deals that may be prolonged. And

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Speaker 6: this will be a rather large entity. It's going to

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Speaker 6: be roughly, you know, two point two million barrels a

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Speaker 6: day of production, so it will get scrutiny. It will

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Speaker 6: get scrutiny more broadly, but in general it's really not

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Speaker 6: sizeable in those particular basins that they are consolidated.

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Speaker 2: So to that point, do we see another bitter come in?

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Speaker 2: So Bloomberg has reported that Devin was also interested in

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Speaker 2: Marathon Oil. Do you think we see this happening now?

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Speaker 6: Well, you know they were looking at it. When you

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Speaker 6: work out the numbers, it would have been kind of

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Speaker 6: difficult to make it work. But the increation here Conico

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Speaker 6: Marathon probably works out best, actually works out better for

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Speaker 6: Marathon holders. It's interesting because within the first three years

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Speaker 6: of the deal, Conico suggests that they'll buy back as

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Speaker 6: much stock as the entire market cap of Marathon, including

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Speaker 6: a boosted dividend for legacy Conical holders, and new holders

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Speaker 6: from the the marathon purchase.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's an all stock deal, which all right,

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Speaker 3: I get my M and A fee, Alex, but I

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Speaker 3: don't get to do the high heel piece which chooses

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Speaker 3: mynd here. So I'm not really happy with an all

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Speaker 3: stocks it's evercore.

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Speaker 2: I think that led kind of go on this one.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I looked at M A go, but they did not

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Speaker 3: have the M and A advisors. They're a little bit

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Speaker 3: slow on that.

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Speaker 5: Vince.

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Speaker 3: Are we going to see more of this? I mean

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Speaker 3: we're going to be talking to you more about M

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Speaker 3: and A in your space.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we've seen it across the Permian. We've seen it

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Speaker 6: in natural gas as well. Haven't seen it as much

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Speaker 6: in natural gas, but I think that'll pick up as

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Speaker 6: well as we're seeing, you know, a big here for

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Speaker 6: Henry Hub and various prices across the regions. When you

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Speaker 6: have a commodity that is in the crosshairs or industry

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Speaker 6: that is in the crosshairs of both civic and political leaders,

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Speaker 6: the one way to survive is to consolidate and get bigger.

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Speaker 6: If you're not able to grow organically.

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Speaker 2: Who's still next on what to buy? Endeavor was one

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Speaker 2: that's being taken out. There were a few others also,

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Speaker 2: you Born, which I'm not that familiar with. It's a

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Speaker 2: private company, but that was kind of on the list.

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Speaker 2: Who are the top targets now.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think you've mentioned the two top private entities

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Speaker 6: in the Permian Look you can you can also have

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Speaker 6: You can also see still more consolidation across Appalachia and

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Speaker 6: also the Hainesville. There's some fragmented spaces there that can

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Speaker 6: be consolidated, you know, Chesapeake and Southwestern. Likely it's done.

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Speaker 6: Devin was looking at Marathon, you know, there's there they

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Speaker 6: could still do. They could still do do something in

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Speaker 6: the industry as well, trying to block up more space

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Speaker 6: for their Permium platform. You have a lot of smaller

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Speaker 6: players across the basin that still need to address their size. Again,

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Speaker 6: this is about consolidating to grow inorganically because the big

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Speaker 6: players they've blocked up the takeaway, they've blocked up the

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Speaker 6: services at reasonable prices, so it becomes more difficult for

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Speaker 6: some of the smaller players across gas and oil.

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Speaker 3: All Right, Vince, thanks so much for joining us. We

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Speaker 3: appreciate getting your insight and analysis there. Vince Piazza senior

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Speaker 3: equity research. Channel's covering all the energy space for Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Intelligence again, Knicco bidding for Marathon Oil, another M and

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Speaker 3: a trade in the oil patch. Good to be an

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Speaker 3: energy M and a banker.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: hour we go outside of Bloomberg Intelligence and get the

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Speaker 2: read on the market. And today we're going to cattery

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Speaker 2: to Seminetti, Senior and Vice president, Private Wealth Advisor, Morgan

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Speaker 2: Stanley Private Wealth Management. She is joining us from Philadelphia.

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Speaker 2: So we're looking at a market here and the excuse,

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Speaker 2: I say excuse, we're seeing a sell off because the takedown,

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Speaker 2: the two and the five year supply yesterday in the

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Speaker 2: bond market was really tepidomy of the seven year today,

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Speaker 2: and all of a sudden everyone's worried about is there

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Speaker 2: enough demand for treasuries? And then that's why stocks are

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Speaker 2: selling off? Is that narrative, right, Alex?

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Speaker 7: You know, there is such a cross fire of news

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Speaker 7: coming at us lately. Investors, you know, are not sure

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Speaker 7: which side they're on. You know, on one day they're

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Speaker 7: worried about the FED action, another day they're excited about

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Speaker 7: the market. And what we are trying to keep them

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Speaker 7: focused on is that the long term narratives should be

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Speaker 7: the balance and the correct approach that should align with

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Speaker 7: their goals. That the balance of their portfolios should not

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Speaker 7: really be dependent on what is happening day to day

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Speaker 7: with the treasury market or whether FED is going to

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Speaker 7: have two rate cuts or three rate cuts or no

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Speaker 7: cuts at all. It should be a longer term approach

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Speaker 7: in making sure that the income and quality of their

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Speaker 7: portfolios reflect their objectives of what they're trying to accomplish

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Speaker 7: with their investments.

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Speaker 3: All right, So given that Backdropkkaterina, when you talk to

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Speaker 3: a perspective client, how do you and yet you know,

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Speaker 3: say they've got a twenty plus year kind of investment horizon.

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Speaker 3: Is it sixty forty stocks, bonds or have alternatives in there?

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Speaker 3: What's kind of a monol portfolio looking for you guys

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Speaker 3: more extaning these days?

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Speaker 7: Well, pull the benefit of the current environment is for

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Speaker 7: the first time in many years, we're actually seeing good

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Speaker 7: yields in the short term investments, so our emergency points cash,

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Speaker 7: you know, should be earning adequate yield. I mean, this

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Speaker 7: is just such an incredible opportunity. The second part of

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Speaker 7: it is really the quality and health of the fixed

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Speaker 7: income portfolio. This is the time to really improve that side,

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Speaker 7: to make sure that we are as diversified with fixed income,

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Speaker 7: both in treasuries, municipal, corporate bonds, high yield preferreds as

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Speaker 7: we can be, because this is a unique opportunity to

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Speaker 7: really align the portfolios for twenty years out and take

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Speaker 7: advantage of the higher quality and higher interest rate environment.

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Speaker 7: And last, but not least, is really the stock part

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Speaker 7: of the portfolio and the trap there is to fall

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Speaker 7: into this excitement about AI and tech and all of

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Speaker 7: a sudden, you know, we see portfolios that are lumps

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Speaker 7: that are not balanced in the way that they should be.

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Speaker 7: And while we believe in AI and the fact that

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Speaker 7: it will increase profitability and will have a profound effect

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Speaker 7: on the performance and like really efficiency of all the

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Speaker 7: sectors and outside of technology, we think that portfolios need

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Speaker 7: to remain balanced. So healthy profit taking, you know, would

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Speaker 7: be good here.

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Speaker 2: So going to the fixing come allocation. Is it credit

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Speaker 2: risk or is a duration risk that's most appealing to you?

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Speaker 7: Well, really both, Alex. You know, when when you look

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Speaker 7: at the inverted yield curve, you know, we see very

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Speaker 7: clearly that going out, you know, as much as we

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Speaker 7: would love to, you know, lock in these higher rates

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Speaker 7: for you know, as long as possible, you know, there

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Speaker 7: is a time horizon there that is reasonable, which is,

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Speaker 7: you know, somewhere there in the middle, we are concerned

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Speaker 7: about the duration risk, but most important factor in our

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Speaker 7: opinion is really the quality. This is the time where

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Speaker 7: you know, we don't have to compromise the quality of

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Speaker 7: the fixed income portfolios in order to get higher yields.

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Speaker 3: How do you think about valuation here, Katerina and the

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Speaker 3: equity market, So we've had obviously a big, big move

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Speaker 3: in equity market prices off those October levels, and we've

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Speaker 3: had good earnings certainly in that period as well, But

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Speaker 3: have you earnings been enough to support kind of the

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Speaker 3: valuations right here do you think.

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Speaker 7: Well, there's a lot of pressure and earnings. The reality

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Speaker 7: that we might be in the higher interest rate environment

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Speaker 7: for longer is hitting both consumers you know, and their

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Speaker 7: spending patterns, but also the profitability and the long term

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Speaker 7: outlook before the companies. We're seeing the slow down in

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Speaker 7: the labor market, we're seeing just general, you know, the

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Speaker 7: slow down in the economy, and while with the stimulus,

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Speaker 7: we think that the longer term outlook is actually quite positive,

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Speaker 7: and we're positioning portfolios for quality, and we are looking

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Speaker 7: at the sectors like industrials, consumer, stables, financials, and you

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Speaker 7: want to make sure that the portfolios are well represented

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Speaker 7: in the dividend things. We still are, of course concerned

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Speaker 7: about the fact that this economy is very much showing

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Speaker 7: the signs of the slowdown and are trying to make

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Speaker 7: sure that portfolios are protected.

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Speaker 2: So what is protection right now within the equity market, Alex.

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Speaker 7: It's emphasis on quality and it always has been the case,

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Speaker 7: but more so now. And what is unique about this

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Speaker 7: market is the companies with very clear competitive positioning are

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Speaker 7: somewhat evident. This is definitely a stock picker's market. This

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Speaker 7: is where are owning the portfolio of good quality names

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Speaker 7: that are showing healthy balance sheets and are positioned well

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Speaker 7: to improve and continue to grow their earnings and really

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Speaker 7: the support the valuations and that that we're seeing right

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Speaker 7: now versus the broad index. This is the time that

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Speaker 7: to definitely own this very individually crafted portfolios and pick

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Speaker 7: individual names.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Keterine, it it's an action year and you know

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Speaker 3: likely there will be a lot of noise around that

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Speaker 3: in the second half of the year. Here when you're

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Speaker 3: actually question to you do your clients call you up

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Speaker 3: and say what do I do for my portfolio? And

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Speaker 3: an election year? Is that a concern for your clients?

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Speaker 7: Well? Absolutely, And the questions that we get usually is

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Speaker 7: how one or another outcome of the election would affect

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Speaker 7: their portfolios and should we do anything at all to

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Speaker 7: really position the portfolios for the outcome of the election.

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Speaker 7: And of course, you know, our crystal ball is a

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Speaker 7: little marky these days and it's so hard to predict,

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Speaker 7: and we tell the investors that they really should keep

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Speaker 7: their eye on the price that the balance and allocation

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Speaker 7: of their portfolio should not be dependent on who is

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Speaker 7: in the White House or you know, the really even

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Speaker 7: the Fed action. It should be on the current economic environment.

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Speaker 7: They should be well balanced. The asset allocation and diversification

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Speaker 7: is really the key, you know to the long term

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Speaker 7: ho look, but also rebalancing, you know, it's just staying

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Speaker 7: that with that balance, right, you know, making sure that

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Speaker 7: we take advantage of the buying opportunities in the market,

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Speaker 7: that we take some growth of the table that makes

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Speaker 7: sense and refocus it in the sectors that has not

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Speaker 7: have not had you know, the run yet, which is

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Speaker 7: really something that is going to ensure the longer term

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Speaker 7: performance of the portoli.

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Speaker 3: Is Katerina, thank you so much for joining us. Katerina

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Speaker 3: sam Eddi, Senior vice president in Private wealth Management at

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Speaker 3: Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just

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Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Another story that we're obviously following that's really important is

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Speaker 2: the latest and President Donald Trump's hush money trial. I

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Speaker 2: gotta tell you, the traffic coming to work the last

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Speaker 2: couple of days have been terrible, and I don't know

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Speaker 2: if that's because of the trial, but it's something I'm kidding.

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Speaker 3: Sounds a little bit dicey because I guess he's staying

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Speaker 3: at Trump Tower. Yes, this makes sense there so I

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Speaker 3: had to go to the store near there yesterday it

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Speaker 3: was kind of congested.

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Speaker 2: This is important stuff to know. We also want to know,

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Speaker 2: like what happens now, so we have closing arguments, what's

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Speaker 2: going on with the jury with the judge in terms

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Speaker 2: of timing as well joining us in the studio as

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Speaker 2: David boorakas he's a legal reporter for Bloomberg News. What

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Speaker 2: is the TikTok? What happens now?

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Speaker 8: The judge has been instructing the jury this morning on

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Speaker 8: how to apply the law to the evidence. This was

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Speaker 8: after more than eight hours of closing arguments yesterday. Once

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Speaker 8: the judge finishes his instructions, the jury will begin to

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Speaker 8: deliberate on thirty four felony counts against Donald Trump, and

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Speaker 8: at some point in the near future will have a verdict.

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Speaker 3: And he thought as to how long this type of

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Speaker 3: trial may take in terms of deliberations, is measured in

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Speaker 3: days or.

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Speaker 8: Longer anyone It's anyone's guess. Really, I would think it

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Speaker 8: would be at least a couple of days, but there's

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Speaker 8: no way to know for sure. There's a lot of

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Speaker 8: evidence to go through, there's some fairly complicated law to

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Speaker 8: apply to that evidence. It seems to have been quite

436
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Speaker 8: a serious jury who's been paying close attention. They have

437
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 8: five weeks of testimony, twenty two witnesses to review, and

438
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 8: an awful lot of exhibits.

439
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,959
Speaker 2: What has the judge told the jury about things today?

440
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 8: The judge has told them essentially to put aside any

441
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 8: political beliefs they have. He's also instructed them on how

442
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:46,360
Speaker 8: election law applies to this case, and that they can

443
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 8: have any of the evidence read back to them or

444
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 8: played back to them. He's essentially setting them up so

445
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 8: that they can enter this little world where it's just

446
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 8: them and they make a rational decision on guilt or innocence.

447
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 8: On the thirty four counts, would these normally be felony counts.

448
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 8: These counts of falsifying business records under New York law

449
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 8: would normally be misdemeanors. But are elevated to felonies. If

450
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 8: the jury decides that Trump intended to violate either state

451
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 8: or federal election law or state tax law, he doesn't

452
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 8: actually have to have accomplished that, only that he intended

453
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 8: to do that. So a lot of this is going

454
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 8: to turn on Donald Trump's intent, and the instruction is

455
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:44,959
Speaker 8: going to focus on how jurors can decide Trump's intent.

456
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 3: So can he be found guilty or not guilty on

457
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 3: some counts and some different on the other counts, or

458
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: is it all kind of one big package.

459
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 8: He definitely could be found guilty on some counts but

460
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 8: not others. If the jury buys the prosecution's theory, which

461
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 8: was that these repayments was to conceal damaging personal information

462
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 8: that would have influenced the twenty sixteen election, it's more

463
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 8: likely than not that he would be convicted on all accounts.

464
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,479
Speaker 8: But one way the jury might split the difference is

465
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 8: that there are eleven checks involved. Two of them were

466
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 8: signed by his former CFO, Ellen Weiselberg and by one

467
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 8: of his two sons. The other nine were signed by

468
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 8: Trump when he was president in twenty seventeen. And they

469
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 8: may say, well, we'll convict on these nine counts because

470
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 8: Donald Trump himself signed the checks. There's also counts involving

471
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 8: invoices from Michael Cohen and vouchers that were in the

472
00:27:56,119 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 8: Trump organization system. It may be that they conclude, dude,

473
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 8: that Trump didn't know about those invoices or vouchers, but

474
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 8: they he knew about the checks that he signed.

475
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 2: Way, how did things go yesterday? How are closing arguments

476
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 2: and how that kind of sets them up?

477
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 8: It was a pretty dramatic day. It went on for

478
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 8: a long time. It started at nine thirty and didn't

479
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 8: end until eight pm last night, and it was kind

480
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 8: of grueling to follow it all. But it was an

481
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 8: excellent overview. I would say both sides were able to

482
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 8: put their best foot forward and make the best arguments

483
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 8: they had.

484
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: What's the Is there an informed opinion out there in

485
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 3: the legal world as how this might go in terms

486
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: of a decision.

487
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: Non partisan informed legal opinion?

488
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 8: Yeah?

489
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 3: Is there anything? Is there any kind of consensus in

490
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 3: your reporting that you guys have found.

491
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 8: I would say that generally legal analysts believe the case

492
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 8: against Trump is strong, but it's hard to know whether

493
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 8: there are supporters on the jury for an acquittal and

494
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 8: so I think generally the consensus is that a conviction

495
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 8: is more likely than an acquittal, but that a hung

496
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 8: jury is a real possibility.

497
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: And then I guess appeals will happen, but as jail

498
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 2: time a real possibility.

499
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 8: With this judge, I know, he.

500
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 4: Really takes seriously, it seems white collar convictions, right.

501
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 8: This judge, one Mershawan threatened a couple of times, and

502
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 8: the second time more seriously to jail Donald Trump if

503
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 8: he continued to violate a gag order against him, threatening

504
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 8: witnesses or members of the prosecution staff. But he never

505
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 8: actually put Trump in jail. And so that's the real

506
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 8: open question that if he were convicted, would he actually

507
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 8: sentence Trump to jail. Well, he faces up to four

508
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 8: years in prison if convicted.

509
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 2: Wow, A lot of unpack on that one. All right,

510
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 2: we really appreciate it. Thank you very much. I know

511
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: it's a lot to get through. David Mariaco's a Bloomberg

512
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: legal reporter. Joining us.

513
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

514
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

515
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

516
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa, from our flagship New York station.

517
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

518
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: All right in a fixed income markets, folks, I don't

519
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 3: think I need to be a hero here. I can

520
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 3: get the two year treasuring kid right around five percent.

521
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 3: That's not bad, folks, And you think about where we

522
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: were the last ten fifteen years. That's a that's a

523
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 3: living I think. But maybe our next cast will get

524
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:48,239
Speaker 3: me to be a little bit more adventurous and take

525
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: some credit risk out there. Jerry Kudzel, he's a group

526
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: managing director and generalist portfolio manager TCW boy. He's been

527
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 3: stuck at a bond market his entire career, by side sellside,

528
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 3: no creativity whatsoever, no equities. Just Jerry, you're like mister

529
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 3: bond person out there. So I guess TCW is a

530
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 3: great place to be because you guys are a serious

531
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 3: bond shop out there. So, Jerry, how about my two percent?

532
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 3: How about my five percent on the two year treasury?

533
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 3: Is that such a bad thing?

534
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 5: It's it's not a bad thing. There's something for everybody,

535
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 5: as as you mentioned. I mean five percent on a

536
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 5: on a two year treasury risk free in a world

537
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 5: where you know a couple of years ago, you would

538
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 5: have you know, you you would have reached for one

539
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 5: and a half percent in a ten year. Note that's

540
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 5: not so bad. That's not so bad. I think we

541
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 5: would we would agree. I think we would probably tell

542
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 5: you not a bad time to think about, you know,

543
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 5: moving out the curve a little bit, you know, three

544
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 5: and five year but you know, earning five percent over

545
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 5: two years for risk pre rate, that's that's pretty attractive.

546
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 2: What do you make of what's going on right now?

547
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 4: Though?

548
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: Because the excuse is like, oh that two in the

549
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 2: five year yesterday was not great. We get the seven

550
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,479
Speaker 2: year or forty four billion coming today at one that

551
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 2: might not be that great, and the markets are trading

552
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: heavy because that does that not hold water for you?

553
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 5: No, it it might. I think, Look, technicals will be

554
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 5: what they'll be in the short term, and you know,

555
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 5: that'll maybe create a slightly better entry point, you know,

556
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 5: for for for investors. I think what we would I think, Alex,

557
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 5: what we would what we would say? You know, if

558
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 5: you think about the real question is okay, if you're

559
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 5: in a higher for longer environment, what might that mean?

560
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 5: Essentially kind of kind of overall, I mean, whether whether

561
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 5: you put a little bit of pressure and you can

562
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 5: buy it to your note at five percent or four

563
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 5: ninety five or you know, rates rates move five five

564
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 5: bps higher. That's not really the story. The story is

565
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,719
Speaker 5: going to be when's the FED gonna move, what's the

566
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 5: pace of the move, and what's that going to mean

567
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 5: for you know, kind of for risk kind of broadly so.

568
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 3: So, Jerry, what is the TCW call on the Fed?

569
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 5: Well, our view is that simply inflation is is moving

570
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 5: in the right direction. I think it's doesn't ever come

571
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 5: down in a straight line, you know. I think as

572
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 5: as we see it, I think simply stated and we

573
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 5: and we as we look at it, we think that

574
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 5: the jobs market, the employment market is just it's softening,

575
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 5: you know, real time. Whether you think that's going to

576
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 5: roll over and create a recession, and we think, why don't.

577
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 7: We focus on that?

578
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,959
Speaker 5: What does that ultimately mean? Is that ultimately all inflation

579
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 5: will need to be sustained by by wages, and real

580
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 5: wages are you know, kind of scratching positive still at

581
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 5: the moment, but you have a real uh, you have

582
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 5: a real stretch consumer uh. And ultimately, our our view

583
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 5: is that rates are going to come down, Uh, looks

584
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 5: like that, you know, we're in a little bit of

585
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 5: a higher for longer environment. Looks like it might get

586
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 5: extended out a little bit, but ultimately, once the Fed goes,

587
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 5: they're going to have to go at a pace that's

588
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 5: faster than what was priced into the market today.

589
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: So when you're looking at the curve, for example, how

590
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: much duration do you want to take on, Like do

591
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 2: you like fixed income for its yield or for its price?

592
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 5: We would say that there's probably a little bit. It's

593
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 5: a little bit of a nuanced answer. We like going

594
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 5: out a little bit into the kind of intermediate part

595
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 5: of the curves. You know, maybe as a as a

596
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 5: bond guy, that's exciting, you know, Paul to mention, you know,

597
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 5: in my career the bond market, my whole career, maybe

598
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 5: not as an equity person, I'd say extending out the

599
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 5: curve into kind of ten and thirty year duration, we're

600
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 5: not as uh, not as excited about that. But I

601
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 5: think in two and five year we think you're supposed

602
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 5: to be moving out the curve at least into the

603
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 5: intermediate part of the curve, and that could actually be

604
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 5: a real that could give you kind of income today

605
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 5: and then also give you a little bit of price

606
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 5: appreciation to the extent that the curve does normalize, does

607
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 5: begin to steepen out, and you do get to see

608
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 5: some more cuts that are priced into the marketplace.

609
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 3: Alex, when I was a sell side analyst, I'd go

610
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 3: to TCW all time because they're like a really big account.

611
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 3: You have to get their I I vote one day,

612
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 3: I got off the elevator and the wrong floor with

613
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 3: all the bond people is a disaster convexity.

614
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 2: Duration god, and you ran. You fear for your life

615
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 2: in the jargon world, I had to get back to

616
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 2: the floor.

617
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 3: We could talk pees and stuff like that. Jerry, do

618
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 3: I take credit risk here? Or you know, people like

619
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 3: you were telling me that the spreads are so tight,

620
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 3: I'm really not getting paid for it. How do you

621
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 3: think about credit and opportunities there?

622
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's that's the you know, that's really the question.

623
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 5: The question is why is there all this demand for credit? Right,

624
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 5: it'll be private credit. You have the public markets issue.

625
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 5: It's almost at all time highs. It just about every

626
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 5: segment of the marketplace, investment, great high yield, and so

627
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 5: the question is technicals are really strong, but we think

628
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 5: what's driving the interest in credit is really the risk

629
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 5: re rate. It's not the eighty basis point you're receiving

630
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 5: an investment great credit. It's not the three hundred basis

631
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 5: points you're receiving in high yo credit. Actually, those historically

632
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 5: look really hyph doesn't mean they can't get tighter, doesn't

633
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 5: mean they can't sit here for quite some time, but

634
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 5: they don't look attractive from a total return perspective. As

635
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 5: a matter of fact, prospective returns when you consider starting

636
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 5: spreads today, they.

637
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 6: Get challenged all over time.

638
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 5: So we don't think you're supposed to be reaching out

639
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 5: the risk spectrum in credit broadly.

640
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 6: That we do do think there are plenty of opportunities.

641
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 5: It's just if you're trying to say broadly, what are

642
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 5: you supposed to do?

643
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 6: They moved out their.

644
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 5: Risk spectrum, you know, into riskier parts of the credit markets.

645
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 6: We don't think it's being compensated for that.

646
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm gonna ask a verbontan question, but

647
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 2: typically when I'm looking at the risk free rate, that's

648
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 2: the tenure. Is the tenure still the risk free rate?

649
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 5: Yeah? Look, I think you have to think about you

650
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 5: have to think about the entire curve at this point,

651
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 5: and it's a it's a it's an interesting question given

652
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 5: the pronounced and prolonged inversion of the curve and what

653
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 5: that has meant or really hasn't meant, uh for the economy,

654
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 5: and whether or not this inflation signal, you know, this

655
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 5: recession signal is dead in terms of the inverted inverted curve,

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00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 5: Whether or not our star is higher, you know, terminal

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00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 5: rate and is all that so?

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00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 6: So where so where are you?

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00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,959
Speaker 5: Where are you supposed to look? We still we still

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00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 5: think that's we still think that's the right place to

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00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 5: look out. But it's I think you have to you

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00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 5: definitely have to consider all parts of the curve. And

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00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 5: there's some plumbing changes that have happened historically and the

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00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 5: you know, in the marketplace that we don't need to

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00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 5: get into. But what we would say is you're probably

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00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 5: you probably need to look at the whole curve. You

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00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 5: got probably got to look a little bit more holistically today.

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Speaker 3: All right, Jerry, thanks for so much for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Really appreciate it. As always, Jerry Kutzel, Group managing Director

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00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 3: and generalists over there at TCW Good Folks in Los Angeles.

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00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:12,000
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