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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn. Ten seconds remaining, we

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Speaker 1: just go show me up to the basket. Under the basket,

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Speaker 1: it's the croup for the wind. God make a miracle.

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Speaker 1: I'm up the water. Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I am

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Speaker 1: your host, Kim and Hwan, joined by the rest of

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Speaker 1: the three man Weave crew, Matt Cox and Jim Root.

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Speaker 1: Every Monday morning, we'll be dropping a new BBOC episode

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Speaker 1: talking all things betting in the world of college hoops.

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Speaker 1: On today's episode, it's our standard format. Some big games,

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Speaker 1: some mid major games, some live dogs, some favorite favorites,

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Speaker 1: some spots, and of course are beloved trash section where

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Speaker 1: we talk about the grossest game of the week and

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Speaker 1: Fellas no spoilers, but I picked out a pretty gross

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Speaker 1: game we're going to talk about at the end of

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Speaker 1: the show. Let's jump right into it. As always, we

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Speaker 1: start with the big games. Got some nice ones on

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Speaker 1: Monday and Tuesday. Monday, Fellas Kansas hosts Iowa State at

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Speaker 1: the fog. We're using Kim Pom spreads. I do think

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Speaker 1: this real spread probably is out there by now we

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Speaker 1: can get eyes on that if we'd like. But Kansas

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Speaker 1: minus three or kim pom against Iowa State minus three excellent.

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Speaker 1: Iowa State off a crazy defeat at the hands of Arizona,

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Speaker 1: killed love half court shots into overtime, and then they

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Speaker 1: just lost to Kansas State at Hilton Coliseum for the

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Speaker 1: first time in like thirty games, I think twenty nine

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Speaker 1: in a row. They won. Kansas likewise suffered a terrible

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Speaker 1: beat up by twenty one points Skins Baylor, and the

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Speaker 1: Bears came back and beat him by ten worth, noting

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Speaker 1: Iowa State won the first game by seventeen Jim, do

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Speaker 1: you like a side in this particular matchup.

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Speaker 2: I'm tempted by Iowa State, but I'm more just baffled,

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Speaker 2: confused by what's.

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Speaker 1: Going on with both of these teams.

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Speaker 2: Kansas gave up sixty in the second half to Baylor,

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Speaker 2: and that was with VJ. Edgecombe limping off. It was

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Speaker 2: like mostly Rob Wright. They're down to five guys, and

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Speaker 2: those guys still torch. That Kansas defense. It's been awesome

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Speaker 2: all year Top ten defense. They've had a bunch of

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Speaker 2: has so they've given up less than twenty points, so

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Speaker 2: to see them give up sixty confusing. But then Matt,

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Speaker 2: I look over at the other side and I was

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Speaker 2: State lost second half at home by twenty to Kansas State,

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Speaker 2: a team who is under five hundred and has no

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Speaker 2: chance of making the NCAA tournament. So it leaves me

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Speaker 2: very confused with these two. To me, it felt a

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Speaker 2: little more of an outlier performance for Iowa State compared

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Speaker 2: to Kansas, because I just have thought Kansas been a

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Speaker 2: little bit limited all season, given the lack of wings scoring,

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Speaker 2: the explosion, and the very specific nature of the Harris

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Speaker 2: Dickinson Adams trio. So I'm tempted by Iowa State met

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Speaker 2: but I do fear some revenge. Big Monday fog Allen

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Speaker 2: field House say, it's not when I can talk myself

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Speaker 2: into bedding.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the price is right closed five and

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Speaker 3: a half first meeting, we're saying three four points roughly

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Speaker 3: for each home obviously two great home court venues. I

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Speaker 3: think that that adds up. But yeah, Jim, I think

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Speaker 3: the Iowa State thing was more of a case State

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Speaker 3: maybe not like back, we'll say, but playing better and

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Speaker 3: certainly team that we know is capable of playing to

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Speaker 3: a very very high rating when they're.

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Speaker 1: Actually that well.

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Speaker 3: But we just haven't seen that much this year, so

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Speaker 3: I kind of give I Aways stay a pass that

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Speaker 3: I like. Iowas stay here I do. Kansas at home

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Speaker 3: just doesn't feel as intimidating as scary with this group

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Speaker 3: right now. Kind I know Harris came back, looked good

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Speaker 3: last game. Still I like the Clones. I'm not going

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Speaker 3: to better at it.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of where my lean lies currently. Kind of

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Speaker 1: in Kansas, man, I look at the first matchup, when

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Speaker 1: I see more repeatable, I guess not success. But Kansas's

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Speaker 1: defense inside the arc was terrific and sid was state.

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Speaker 1: Kansas missed four for eleven of the free throw line.

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Speaker 1: Dwan Harris had his worst freether shooting game ever. I

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Speaker 1: think in that game in the turnovers, we're out of

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Speaker 1: control for Kansas. Maybe that happens again and Iowa stay.

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Speaker 1: Of course, that's kind of what they do on defense,

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Speaker 1: but at home in the fog leaning towards Kansas. There

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Speaker 1: no official play though with you guys, kind of a

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Speaker 1: toss up. Tuesday, four really good games here. We've got

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Speaker 1: Arizona traveling to BYU and because of that crazy winning

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Speaker 1: in Stiowa State and a knockoff of the Sun Devils

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Speaker 1: that in Tempe. The Cats are tied at nine and

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Speaker 1: one for the Big twelve lead with Houston. We got

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Speaker 1: Kentucky going to Ole Miss. The ReBs have lost four

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Speaker 1: or five. Kentucky, of course, just lost to John Calipari

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Speaker 1: on their home floor. Craziness. Michigan State's going off to Ucla.

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Speaker 1: The Spartans are off their first Big ten loss of

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Speaker 1: the year. And look and don't look now, Matthew Cox

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Speaker 1: Ucla five straight wins after a four game losing skid,

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Speaker 1: and then Finallyaylor of Texas Tech Tech off a massive

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Speaker 1: win at Houston. Baylor, we just talked about massive comeback

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Speaker 1: against Kansas shorthanded without Jeremy Roach. Still, Matthew, can I

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Speaker 1: convince you in any games here, We can go through

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Speaker 1: them a little bit each one, but do any jump

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Speaker 1: off the page for you immediately from a betting perspective, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech is the one.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: Baylor has been awesome. We talked about how good their

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Speaker 3: freshmen have looked. I just think this is probably a

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Speaker 3: spot in the schedule where a younger team again going

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Speaker 3: to altitude at Lubbock we know that kind of They

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Speaker 3: very pretty well in the double altitude Roady byu Utah,

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Speaker 3: but you know, didn't look convinceable. I think this is

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Speaker 3: when we're again just because relying on so little bodies

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Speaker 3: with the youth.

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Speaker 1: We'll see what the number is.

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Speaker 3: Seven sounds pricey, but I think it's probably in that neighborhood,

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Speaker 3: probably five to six, maybe seven. I think it's under seven.

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Speaker 3: I'll probably be laying the lumber with the Red Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Jimbo.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just to clarify, I feel like people are going

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Speaker 2: to what Texas altitude?

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Speaker 1: What are you talking about? Texas Tech?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that Texas Tech is at altitude so

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Speaker 2: confirmed right, like the twenty fifth highest polidation I think, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I just want to make sure that's clear for people

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Speaker 2: that are not screaming at us through the through the

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Speaker 2: headphones there. But yeah, it's an interesting one. Like if

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Speaker 2: Baylor just continues losing bodies, if Roach is still not

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Speaker 2: out with not back with his concussion, Edgecombe, we don't know.

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Speaker 1: For sure what his status is going to be.

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Speaker 2: And they did get down twenty at home to Kansas,

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Speaker 2: Like I know, they had that just insane second half,

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Speaker 2: but it's still a team that's you know, struggled big

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Speaker 2: time for the first twenty minutes of that. On the

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Speaker 2: other side, yeah, I mean, I don't know really what

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Speaker 2: to make of Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: JT.

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Speaker 2: Toppins is gonna be fresh because he played like two

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Speaker 2: minutes before getting ejected from that that Houston game, So

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Speaker 2: you've got that going there. But I think the top

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Speaker 2: ten guy, that's where they're at in Ken Palm right now,

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Speaker 2: it's where they're gonna be priced.

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Speaker 1: That number is going to feel high.

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Speaker 2: I'm actually looking at the other big twelve one b

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Speaker 2: YU at home catching Arizona there. It just kind of

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Speaker 2: feels like cale Blove might have a stinker at altitude.

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Speaker 2: The one thing that spooks me is we always like

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Speaker 2: the travel teams going to altitude, it's gonna be tough,

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Speaker 2: so it's I like to back BYU, but they're coming

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Speaker 2: all the way back from UCF. It's not like they

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Speaker 2: have convenient travel. I think we've talked about that on

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Speaker 2: the show a couple of times this season, where BIU

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Speaker 2: is somehow always in a worse travel spot even though

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Speaker 2: they're at home.

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Speaker 1: But I do think they're trending up. They won four

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Speaker 1: in a row, Arizona.

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Speaker 2: Feels like a pretty good sell high spot kind of

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Speaker 2: the way Matt's talking about the young team with Baylor.

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Speaker 1: Arizona's not as young.

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Speaker 2: They're much more experienced team, but it feels like a tough,

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Speaker 2: tough spot in the schedule when they've won ten of

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Speaker 2: their last eleven.

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Speaker 1: Yep, I agree BYU is exactly where my mind went immediately.

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Speaker 1: You see the market kind of hit these home teams heavier.

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Speaker 1: We'll say, I would expect bad to take some money

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Speaker 1: despite Arizona's recent success. I probably up to three with BYU. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: I like them that much. I do think this is

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Speaker 1: their game here. Your point of the traffic coming back

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Speaker 1: from the UCF is a good one. We saw that

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Speaker 1: scenario play out a couple times already this season. I

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Speaker 1: doaling towards Tech as well. It feels like this depth

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Speaker 1: thing has to catch up a Baylor eventually. Of course,

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Speaker 1: will Roach be back is a question. Robert Wright's been incredible.

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Speaker 1: They're freshman point guard the other two games. Kentucky's a team.

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Speaker 1: I just I don't really want to bet on or

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Speaker 1: fade at this point. Certainly not fade because they are

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Speaker 1: so kind of random you know, being Tennessee at Tennessee

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Speaker 1: is crazy in itself shorthanded, and then you lose to

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Speaker 1: Targansaw at home. You lost to vander before that, but

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Speaker 1: you also smashed A and M and you compete with Alabama.

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Speaker 1: It's a tough team and nail down in one. I

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Speaker 1: don't feel comfortable betting on and old missus certainly giving

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Speaker 1: us a little bit of head scratches as well. This season.

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Speaker 1: The UCLA Michigan State game kind of towards UCLA met

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Speaker 1: Michigan State following for a second straight time. Used to

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Speaker 1: like continuing that winning streak. They seem to be kind

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Speaker 1: of flowing now after Cronin got on them a little

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Speaker 1: bit in the press conference, seems to have worked yet again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it does seem like Cronin has this streak ability.

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Speaker 3: We saw it last year, right and this this year's

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Speaker 3: team's just much better and now they've found a new

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Speaker 3: gear with a Dave Marrow just been absolutely beast up front.

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Speaker 3: I think he had was seven and seven to four.

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Speaker 3: He only played twenty minutes. Matchup was you know. I

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Speaker 3: think they tried to go smaller, they tried to exploit bittle.

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Speaker 3: I think so he wasn't as dominants he was against

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Speaker 3: USC Organs Wisconsin or I guess Washington for that matter.

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Speaker 3: But I think it's the matchup where they're gonna look

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Speaker 3: to feature him pretty heavily, but with Bill it outback Mara.

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Speaker 3: Their front courts now, you know, pretty damn impressive.

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Speaker 1: Daily has been great.

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Speaker 3: Their guard play has been consistent, like sky Clark's, like

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Speaker 3: you know, Cronin raves about his defense. I do think

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Speaker 3: this UCLA mojo is real now, I know MISIGN states

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Speaker 3: as equally as authentic. What a nine to one right

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Speaker 3: now in the Big ten obviously off that loss gives

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Speaker 3: you even more juice right in that spot. But I

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Speaker 3: do in UCLA here, but again, nothing stronger. I just

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Speaker 3: think these are probably well priced close coin flips with

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Speaker 3: no real major edge arena fire on these.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I was tempted a little bit my Michigan state looking

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Speaker 2: at it, but I think your guys points are valid here.

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Speaker 2: I'm in Michigan state, no travel, so they're just in LA

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Speaker 2: going over to UCLA. But I don't think it's any

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Speaker 2: surprise or any any shocker that UCLA's run of good

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Speaker 2: play has coincided with them staying in the Pacific time

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Speaker 2: zone for like three weeks. Their only road trip has

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Speaker 2: been up to Washington and then over to USC across town.

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Speaker 2: Cronin complained loudly, loudly loudly, after all their road trips

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Speaker 2: they were doing before, seems like they've kind of gotten

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Speaker 2: more comfortable with in terms of playing together and just

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Speaker 2: being home and not having to jump around the country.

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Speaker 2: And again I mentioned Michigan State doesn't have to do

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Speaker 2: that because they just played at USC over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's not like a travel spot for them. But UCLA

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Speaker 2: did not play at all over the weekend, so they

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Speaker 2: were like more well rested or probably better prepared for

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Speaker 2: that one. I'm actually getting close to back in Ucla.

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Speaker 2: I think you guys, yeah you got me there, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: All right, killing Bord Jim, Yeah, you guys mintioned any more?

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Speaker 1: Mar excuse me, Worth noting fifteen blocks in the last

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Speaker 1: four games for Marrow. Great.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's playing like twenty minutes a game, I mean,

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Speaker 2: like five minute a game.

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Speaker 1: He's been insane. His block rate is over eighteen percent

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Speaker 1: in the conference play. That's pretty good. That's pretty good. Okay,

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Speaker 1: those are the big games. Well, we'll recap our picks

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Speaker 1: kind of at the end, but I will be on

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Speaker 1: b y U and UCLA. Of those two, those will

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Speaker 1: be my two picks out of there. We'll get Matt

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Speaker 1: and Jim's thoughts too at the end of the show.

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Speaker 2: One more thing on Kentucky, Wilmant Butler hasn't been back,

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Speaker 2: and I know they want to Tennessee without him. We

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Speaker 2: still think he's like super important. Agree, he sets the

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Speaker 2: tone as an on ball defender, so keep an eye

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Speaker 2: on him as well. And Pope didn't sound overly encouraged.

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Speaker 2: They're like, we're hoping to get him back sometime, not

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Speaker 2: as specific.

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Speaker 3: It's very very pessimistic, like there's a life a lot

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Speaker 3: going on there. Yeah, not good because I think they

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Speaker 3: you know, they don't feel like a team that's short

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Speaker 3: on guards, but they are kind of short on guards,

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Speaker 3: and he's obviously the most important guy.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, I would say short on ballhanders. I

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Speaker 1: definitely right. Maybe not a guard itself, but yeah. Perciv

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Speaker 1: to be Analytics plus fifteen net rating for Butler on

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Speaker 1: off stats. That's that's very good, eighty eighth percentile in

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Speaker 1: the country among guards. So Butler very important this season

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Speaker 1: for the on off Analytics. Thank you CBB Analytics. Mid

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Speaker 1: Major games one one to point out here on Monday

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Speaker 1: and Tuesday. North Texas on Monday goes to UAB. North

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Speaker 1: Texas minus two at UAB. These two teams are tied

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Speaker 1: at seven and two in the American that is second

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Speaker 1: place behind Memphis. Of course, North Texas won game one. However,

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Speaker 1: UAB was up by eighteen that game. I know, I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty sure we all backed u A B in that

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Speaker 1: one and almost watches our bet went up in flames.

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Speaker 1: They did hang on the spread. Matt might have taken

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Speaker 1: money line that game, so he was probably more of seven.

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Speaker 3: Take any points offered with UAB involved, I'll be taking

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Speaker 3: all of those points.

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Speaker 1: Worth noting. However, North Texas what they're coming off. They

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Speaker 1: just lost to UTSA in Denton and they had thirteen

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Speaker 1: points in the first half. I mean, that's impossible.

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Speaker 3: UTSA is a weird team, like I do, think they

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Speaker 3: actually have talent, and I wasn't. I'm not gonna say

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Speaker 3: I wasn't surprised by that result, but it was I

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Speaker 3: kind of give North Texas a pass. I'm gonna do

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Speaker 3: the old throat out the window. It doesn't make me

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Speaker 3: think anything wants to North Texas and obviously North Texas

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Speaker 3: pace and the way they can cramp it down that

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Speaker 3: sort of they put themselves in like the Virginia Gallows

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Speaker 3: of like if you get down and you don't have

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Speaker 3: like that juice, you put yourself in a tough spot here.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a great bounce back spot for North Texas.

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Speaker 3: However, matchup wise, we talked with this last time, right

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Speaker 3: UABA is pretty much the last three years matched up

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Speaker 3: very well in North text they can make tough shots.

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Speaker 3: They kind of have like that talent shot making million

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Speaker 3: that in the gates everything that that pack line structure

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Speaker 3: is so effective at quick turnaround. But man, I think

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Speaker 3: there's no better time for a quick turn after losing

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Speaker 3: a home to UTSA, the you know, perceived sellar dweller

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Speaker 3: up this league. Conflicting back and forth, kais so spot

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Speaker 3: North Texas? Matchup AB price price, price price, It'll be

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Speaker 3: probably pick?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what is it minus one right now? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Thirty seven and a half the total? I think I

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Speaker 3: think I'm gonna take UA B if it stays a

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Speaker 3: round pick. I think money on you AB is coming imminently.

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Speaker 3: By the time you hear this, I think you AB

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Speaker 3: will be minus one, minus two.

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Speaker 1: We'll say just I'm.

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Speaker 2: Gonna I'm gonna bet North Texas, Matthew. So I hope

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Speaker 2: you're right and I can get some some weight.

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Speaker 1: That's my advice. They're against top one fifty opponents this year.

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Speaker 2: North Texas seven and four, sixty third in the country

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Speaker 2: per bart Torvik, you a bet one and six and

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty fourth in the country. Like they

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Speaker 2: they've kind of been a beat up on bad teams.

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Speaker 2: That's that's been their darling.

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Speaker 1: Way of doing it.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they beat good teams. The game against

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Speaker 2: Memphis was terrible, like they just got absolutely smashed against

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Speaker 2: the team they should be playing up against. So I

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Speaker 2: think now North Texas with that bounce back that that

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Speaker 2: you guys have.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned running back to me and Green, I leaned towards

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Speaker 1: you a b But I watched that first game and

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Speaker 1: the eye test to me was North Texas is better.

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Speaker 1: How UAB was unconscious in the first half. They're ten

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Speaker 1: for eight team from three in the game. Now, they

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Speaker 1: also dominated the glass. They won the rebounding battle. North

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Speaker 1: Texas was twenty five for twenty six in the free

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Speaker 1: throw line and also shot well from three. UAB shot

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Speaker 1: well from freethball as well. And u AB has the

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Speaker 1: best player you actually, Wendeborg has been compared in stat

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Speaker 1: categories with Cooper Flagg because of his versatility, he leads

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Speaker 1: you AB and basically every single statistical category. He is

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Speaker 1: the best player in this game. UAB just hasn't been,

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Speaker 1: frankly as good as North Texas. And I know North

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Speaker 1: Texas just had a stinker, but they are the I think,

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Speaker 1: more stable, consistent team, very back and forth, kind of

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Speaker 1: like Matt, but I do lean towards you a b

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Speaker 1: live dog section fellas.

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Speaker 3: Where as mine, Oh, where as mine?

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Speaker 1: This has been a good year year for us in general.

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Speaker 1: Last week was not good. We crapped the bed. As

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Speaker 1: they like to say, Iowa, I think I was on.

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Speaker 1: Iowa failed against Ohio State. Kentucky did beat Tennessee outright.

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Speaker 1: I don't think any of us actually took it. We

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Speaker 1: didn't mention it though, so we mentioned it. We didn't

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Speaker 1: take it. No real credit there, Butler. They failed after

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Speaker 1: they blew the game against believe it was Marquette. Last week,

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Speaker 1: Georgetown got absolutely slaughtered to Saint John's Tabu. The matchup

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Speaker 1: was wake huge failure against Louisville Minnesota, didn't cover thirteen

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Speaker 1: or whatever it was, fifteen against Michigan State and then

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Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan. They did get inside the number against my Ohio,

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Speaker 1: just barely. But no, of course, money line special this week.

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Speaker 1: Not a ton of great options. I have three candidates here.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm really convinced on any of them,

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Speaker 1: but I'll throw these out. You guys can toss them

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Speaker 1: back in my face or add more. Of course, I

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Speaker 1: got Iowa hosting Purdue. I always seem to be on

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Speaker 1: this list every week, but fellas they might just be bad.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot hosting Purdue, but I

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Speaker 1: always lost four or five. They're kind of drained circlers

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Speaker 1: right now. It seems like they blow a lot of

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Speaker 1: covers late. It's kind of just like they fade. They're

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Speaker 1: kind of like Butler in the way they just tail off.

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Speaker 1: They get forked quite a bit at the end of game.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not too confident in that one. Wyoming plus

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Speaker 1: seven per kim Pom hosting Utah State, the Cowboys, great

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Speaker 1: coach and sunny Wicks. They nearly won at ba House

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Speaker 1: at San Diego State, but Utah State is off at

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Speaker 1: nineteen point home loss in New Mexico. Utah State categorically

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Speaker 1: better team. That's a scary one. And then finally, I know,

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Speaker 1: call me crazy, Indiana plus ten per kimpom gonna get

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Speaker 1: a pretty big money line price at Wisconsin. Indiana just

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Speaker 1: played Purdue very close on the road. They lost to

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Speaker 1: Maryland by one, probably should have won that game. They

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Speaker 1: have the players like individual players, but the coach, of

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Speaker 1: course is yikes, great guards a good coach. Mike Woodson's

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Speaker 1: frankly not. And the Badger's defense does seem like a

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Speaker 1: tough matchup for them. The way they defend the rim,

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Speaker 1: the way they defend the paint, it might be a

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Speaker 1: tough matchup for Indiana, especially on the road. Jim, do

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Speaker 1: you like any of those three or do you want

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Speaker 1: to give me other candidates?

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Speaker 2: I have one other candidate I'm super excited about, but

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Speaker 2: I will I will talk about these games first. I

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Speaker 2: like that Indiana I did not play Canadon Carlisle last game.

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Speaker 2: This is a drum I've been beating all season. I

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Speaker 2: think they are better without him. Performing that well at

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Speaker 2: Purdue is a good indicator for me. It could be

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Speaker 2: tough like Perdue and Indiana both coming off that rivalry.

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Speaker 2: Maybe that is why it's a good spot for Iowa.

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Speaker 2: I think those teams get pretty up.

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Speaker 1: For that game.

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Speaker 2: I just don't know if Indiana or if Iowa can

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Speaker 2: get any stops against Purdue. Perdue could be one point

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Speaker 2: three points for possession, running away from it, scoring every

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Speaker 2: time down the floor.

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Speaker 1: That scares me.

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Speaker 2: Interested in Indiana the kay I do think if they

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Speaker 2: get double digits, I could be talked into that one.

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Speaker 2: Wisconsin very reliant on their top two guards, the tan

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Speaker 2: Jay Blackwell combination. Hopefully Indiana can can mask those guys Miles,

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Speaker 2: Rice and Galoway. I think your solid backcourt defenders. It's

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Speaker 2: not like Baco is the big problem defensively. Wisconsin doesn't

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Speaker 2: have a type of player that punishes him like the

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Speaker 2: versatile athlete in the front court. So tempted by Indiana, Matt,

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Speaker 2: do you want to comment on these before I get

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Speaker 2: my dumpster diving money line here?

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Speaker 1: Now?

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Speaker 3: I kind of like Indiana as like a money line

403
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Speaker 3: portfolio team the rest of because they obviously have talent,

404
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Speaker 3: they know they can play well. But to on a

405
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Speaker 3: team you want to back consistently. I just think like

406
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Speaker 3: they have that volatility that you just don't know, whack

407
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Speaker 3: them all any game.

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Speaker 1: They could show up and play really well.

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Speaker 3: So I sort of like, just as a theme, we

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Speaker 3: probably will see Indiana on this section a lot more

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Speaker 3: going forward.

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Speaker 1: That's just my assumption. Kay.

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Speaker 3: I like a crazy one for you here. How about

414
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Speaker 3: was salt venteen seventeen points projected losers to VCU who

415
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Speaker 3: just beat their in. Yeah, the Capital City rivalry was

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Speaker 3: a blood bath. I think that forty against Richmond Lasal

417
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Speaker 3: went into Bonnie's won there. I think this team has

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Speaker 3: like shot making, like play, like rise above their their head,

419
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Speaker 3: potential guards galore. They got Lily back last game, pretty

420
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Speaker 3: big piece up front. They played close last season, kind

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Speaker 3: of shocking. I thought this would be like, this doesn't

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Speaker 3: feel like a good matchup schematically, but I like that

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Speaker 3: that Dunfie did play you know, a similar OTEM team

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Speaker 3: last year competitively, and again you're just getting great value.

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Speaker 3: Obviously it's a Hilmary swing here, but I didn't want

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Speaker 3: to throw it out there. So definitely a pocket change

427
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Speaker 3: type that I wouldn't I wouldn't go, you know, mortgage

428
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Speaker 3: probably not kin.

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Speaker 1: Are you gonna back to spread there, Maddie. I'm the

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Speaker 1: Explorers are just just.

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Speaker 3: A little I think it might just be a month

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Speaker 3: because that's sort of like my I think, I what

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Speaker 3: did I say, Slough at VCU or like I'm not

434
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: betting Slough spread. I think if Sleu's in this game,

435
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 3: they have a chance to win it. I think they

436
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 3: could get smashed too, same kind of signment here, So yeah,

437
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 3: volatility key Kai.

438
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 2: I'm going Monday night the Southland where people probably don't

439
00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: spend a lot of time. But Nichols just beating McNeice

440
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 2: over the weekend and now they got Houston Christian come

441
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: in to town, who in theory is bad. But they're

442
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 2: number two in the country against the spread this year,

443
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 2: sixteen and four against the number.

444
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 1: Craig Doty's done a great job elevating them in his

445
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 1: first season. I think this is a wonderful spot.

446
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: They're getting eight points per the Ken Palm line of

447
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 2: the up check the real line in a second here,

448
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 2: But I just think catching Nichols off that massive, massive win,

449
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 2: the biggest win you can get in the south Land

450
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 2: against mcneise, the big bully, and then Houston Christian team

451
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 2: has been out performing expectations all year, So I am

452
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,880
Speaker 2: going to take that Monday line for a little bit.

453
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 2: And the spread is eight what I'm looking at right now,

454
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: So give me, give me the Huskies.

455
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 1: I dig at Jim and conference play. Houston Christian very

456
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 1: good shooting team. Nearly thirty nine percent from three. They

457
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 1: take a lot of three's relative to other South end teams.

458
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 1: So hey, hi variance, we like that. Why not take

459
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: a swing? Yeah? Good letdown. I totally missed the Nichols

460
00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: beat mcneise. That is a crazy result for this It

461
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 1: was funny.

462
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: Well Wade talked about that on our discord over the summer.

463
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 2: He's like Tevin Sadler just throws weird defenses at us

464
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 2: every time.

465
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:09,880
Speaker 1: They're so well prepared.

466
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 2: So it seems like Soalder might might have the secret

467
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 2: blueprint to beating McNeese.

468
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I guess so okay, Yeah, not much conviction

469
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: for me there. You know, I think, honestly, Indiana is

470
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: my favorite one out of the three, but I it's

471
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: very hard to trust Mike Woodson to this point. I

472
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: might sit the live dog section out this week, Fellas,

473
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 1: there's not a ton of good options for me in

474
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: the next next couple of days. Okay, let's go favorite favorites.

475
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 1: Maybe we can find a couple in here. Last week

476
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: we took Southern against Misisipi Valley State. They did push

477
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 1: the kin Palm line if you want to go by

478
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: that twenty one miracle. Pretty much push did not cover

479
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 1: the actual line, so that's a loss. Georgia did cover.

480
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 1: They beat South Carolina after trailing for much of the game,

481
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: So Georgia nice Lit'll come back there. And the Zags.

482
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: Gonzaga murdered Oregon State. It's a thirty point drubbing revenged

483
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: for Gonzaga. So a good call there for the week, and.

484
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 2: A quick fu to the line and the odds makers

485
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: that made that game like fourteen and a half when

486
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: ken Palm had at ten.

487
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: Incredible, Hey, they're right. This week, just two for me

488
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 1: at least to mention. I do think I'll get involved

489
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: in at least one of these games. First on Monday,

490
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 1: Pitt is hosting Virginia. Kim Pom's got a twelve markets

491
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 1: probably around there, correct me if I'm wrong, Fellas the

492
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: Who's of Virginia. They're down to one thirty three in kimpom.

493
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: This team were worried about the Tony bennettless Virginia squad,

494
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: and it's starting to get real bad. They just lost

495
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: at home to Virginia Tech. Pitt is off a road

496
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 1: loss to Wake and Heck has not looked that very

497
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 1: good NAC play either. But they need to start racking

498
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: up wins with margin. This would be a good time

499
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: to do it. Can they get there with the pace

500
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: that Virginia plays at with a possession count behind enough?

501
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: We will see. Tuesday is the one I like better. Matthew,

502
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 1: and you're the MAC whisper, but I'm gonna go to

503
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: you first for this one. Akron minus fourteen against ball State,

504
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: the Zips are insane. January third. Since that day, they've

505
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: played one single digit game. They've been crushing teams best

506
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 1: offense and defense in the MAC. It seems like the

507
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 1: MAC is very top heavy. The bottom teams just don't

508
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: really hold a candle. Ball State I would classify as

509
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: a bottom team, maybe middle team, but more close to

510
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: the bottom. So Akron will be a play for me.

511
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 3: I like both these I have two favorites on the card,

512
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 3: both Pitt and Akron as well.

513
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 1: I mean it's like at Virginia.

514
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: Right, they've only two games they've played respectively, Boston College,

515
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 3: bad basketball team in Miami, not a real basketball team.

516
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 3: So it's just like they haven't really been competitive, and

517
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 3: since that SMU game they lost by two, I just

518
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 3: think they're a flat lining team. Pretty simple there, big

519
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 3: spot for Pitt. I know Pitt's sort of in this

520
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 3: like weird part of the ACC schedule where we stop

521
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: taking them seriously after they dominated the down com But

522
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 3: I do think it's a good spot for Pitt in

523
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 3: an Akron. You listen to Michael Lewis, ball State's c coach,

524
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: and he talks about this after the ANIU game they

525
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 3: got smashed by NIU. It's like, we just don't do

526
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 3: well against these teams that you know, small spread like

527
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 3: you know that can spread and shred like Akron does

528
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 3: this year because they're kind of playing you know, paid

529
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 3: Sparks is kind of in there. They add more of

530
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 3: an antiquated type of lineup, and I think he's really frustrated.

531
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 3: So I think Akron is set up to, you know,

532
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,199
Speaker 3: schematically eviscerate what I think has been a pretty key

533
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 3: weakness for ball State all year. I also don't like

534
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 3: this ball State team. Just from the viameter. It feels

535
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 3: like Lewis hates the team. I don't think like the

536
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,360
Speaker 3: boomerang story of Sparksman back just hasn't really.

537
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: I don't know, stuck.

538
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: I think this is a fade team for sure. I

539
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 3: think they when they go down, they go down pretty hard.

540
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 2: I'm with you guys on both of these. I think

541
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 2: it makes a lot of sense. You've hit most of

542
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 2: the key points. The one I wanted to add is

543
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,640
Speaker 2: that Virginia is like not playing any defense either. Their

544
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 2: fifteenth in the ACC and defense the ACC is bad

545
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 2: with some really bad defenses. So to be that far

546
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 2: down and it's not like shooting luck, they're just getting

547
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: crushed at the rim. They don't rebound, they never forced turnovers,

548
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 2: and they're a little bit drained. Circling to Kay, I

549
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 2: said it about Iowa earlier, Virginia's send the season, Let's

550
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 2: get to the end of the year and get our

551
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 2: coaching search going. I think that's where most of the

552
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: fans heads lie. Anyways, and kind of stepping on the

553
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: toes of the of the next section, Kai, but I'm

554
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: going to betting Houston awful loss against the team with

555
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: a really bad offense. It feels a lot like when

556
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 2: Houston lost earlier season. Then they beat Butler at home

557
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 2: by twenty eight and we've seen what they can do

558
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: to some of these inferior teams at the Fortita Center.

559
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, I will be laying it with Houston. Love

560
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: it Jim. Yes, we will talk about Houston's next section.

561
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: So yes, we all seems like we all like Pitt

562
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 1: and Akron. Those will be a place for me for

563
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: the favorites, favorite favorite favorites spots. Last week, Penn State

564
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 1: actually cover against Michigan. I think we talked about that

565
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: was a better spot for Michigan. Penn State ended up covering,

566
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: almost won that game. Little Rock game, that was the

567
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: weird one where they play at linden Wood right after

568
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 1: playing linden Wood. Turns out having no juice in that

569
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: arena was the main factor. Little Rock lost outright to

570
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 1: e I U geez OVC. Is tough to bet the Zags.

571
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: We discussed Corsicans, Oregon State, Georgia. We discussed Seaton Hall.

572
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: I think did not cover barely against Providence. These games

573
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: I don't think we all took I just want to

574
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: mention what we talked about. But San Jose State came

575
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 1: through and they've been coming through all year. They're the

576
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: number one ATS team in the country. The Santiase State

577
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 1: Spartan seventeen and four this year, ten miles not winning

578
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: a ton of basketball games, but winning against the number

579
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 1: and that's what counts. So this week good teams when

580
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: great teams cover greats kevy This week Monday nothing Tuesday spots.

581
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: I picked out a couple here. First was in the

582
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: Valley Murray State plus five for kem Palm hosting Drake.

583
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: The Racers have really tumbled, but they're still, in my opinion,

584
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 1: a pretty good team, a lot of talent, a lot

585
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 1: of athletes. They've lost three in a row. They did

586
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: beat Drake in Des Moines on January fifth. Drake has

587
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: not lost since. Seems like a good spot's me for

588
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: Murray They're confident they can beat this team. You're getting

589
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 1: up for the best team in the conference or at

590
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: least one two with Bradley, Murray State is likely a team.

591
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 1: And looked back on Tuesday, and I think you might

592
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: even see some Drake money in that game, just based

593
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: on how they're playing. Who knows not a no stredames

594
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: when it comes to that stuff. The market which way

595
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 1: it sways, But I would be surprised if the market

596
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 1: fades Drake than betting them all year. Matt any opinion

597
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: on that game before I.

598
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 3: Go, Yeah, it's weird. I don't get Murray. I really

599
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 3: don't you know? They have like two of the better

600
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: wins in conference, winning at Drake and at Northern Iowa.

601
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: They've just dpped in the say in the last month.

602
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: They're actually not very not been very good at home either,

603
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 3: usually like one of the stronger home teams in that conference.

604
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 3: Doesn't make me, doesn't Given the warm and fuzzies, I

605
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 3: wonder if the lack of depth is playing a part.

606
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 3: But you don't lose them as very staated by twenty one. Yeah,

607
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 3: that that's a red flag to me. I think you're right,

608
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 3: it's a good spot. It's not gonna that that result

609
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 3: is is burned in my brain right, No, Becaseate's terrible.

610
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: They've been terrible the last mom up of the year.

611
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 2: I'm all spooked by kind remind me, correct me if

612
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: I'm wrong, both you guys, isn't this an old Allen

613
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 2: Boston The road Revenge like team loses. He does like that,

614
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: so backing Drake on the road there, so I'm this one.

615
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna stay away. I'm a little spooked by it.

616
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: Fair enough. We talked to b Yu hosting Arizona I

617
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: know Jim and I like that one, so that that'll

618
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: be on the card as well. Kansas State. This is

619
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: interesting here. Arizona State probably a better spot for the

620
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 1: Sun Devil's honestly off a couple losses. They're they're hosting

621
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: the Wildcats, who are off in insane run beat Iowa State,

622
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: one of the best wins in the country this season.

623
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: In ames case, States looked awesome the last three games,

624
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: so well, the spots all for a SU. It might

625
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: be a hey, bet the hot team, bet the hot

626
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 1: hand right here, Matt a SU also kind of off

627
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: a weird Bobby Hurley bj Freeman drama. Freeman headbutted love

628
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: and and and Hurley didn't shake Kilbobb's hands, basically say

629
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: he's not going to vote for him for all conference.

630
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: Really immature stuff from the Hurlies all season. So this

631
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: one's I just want to mention this one because is interesting.

632
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: You're seeing a kind of a low number, but Case

633
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: State's hot Arizona State probably better spot here.

634
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're right, I'm torn there injuries for Arizona State.

635
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 3: They got a healthy last game, right, I think Clayton's played,

636
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: and they've had Sandon's back, and Sand's been back, and

637
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 3: he's been the last three he's played well.

638
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: So I don't know this one's tough.

639
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 3: I kind of think this Arizona State team is You're right,

640
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 3: Kai like it has a very brittle psyche and they

641
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 3: could easily be a falling knife at any moment. And

642
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: maybe if you're going to look to try and pounce

643
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: on that to time that why not do it with

644
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 3: the hot hand team in Kse who he talked about

645
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: at the onset talented, has potential. Tang continues to believe

646
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 3: this team is really good. I feel like he's almost

647
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 3: just stubborn, but the last three games he's been right,

648
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: So call this a spot call it bride the hot hand.

649
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: I think Case State, the more i think I'm going

650
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 3: to play that one, that's a play for me.

651
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: You got, Yeah, I'm considering it. I'm looking at some

652
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 2: of the numbers here, like last three games as good

653
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: ask States, like, well, they're shooting forty seven percent from

654
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 2: deep in those three and their opponents are thirty one percent. Yeah,

655
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 2: so you're you're calling them correctly the hot team. Are

656
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: they going to stay hot and keep shooting? It's entirely possible, Kyle.

657
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: We always say the best way to win is to

658
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 2: just know who's going to make threes. Yeah, it's easy,

659
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: and it seems like KSE State's doing that at a

660
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 2: really astronomical rate right now. Housing I totally believe it.

661
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: But everybody else is knocking down shots too.

662
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would I would it be Case State.

663
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 2: Or nothing for me there, I'm not gonna I'm not

664
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: going to get in bed with Bobby Hurley.

665
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 3: Interesting that k State has the worst three point opponent

666
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 3: shooting luck in the Big Twelve despite limiting opponents to

667
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: the least amount. Usually those are you know, in theory

668
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: correlated metrics, you don't allow many, you should get the

669
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 3: benefit out. But so maybe they're just you know, collecting

670
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 3: on that ode regression debt.

671
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: That's my theory with KSE State. Yeah, it's it's crazy.

672
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 2: They're sixteenth and three point percent of defense despite I

673
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: just said the thirty one percent.

674
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: In the last three games. It's been down very interesting indeed,

675
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:03,239
Speaker 1: and then finally, yes, Jim Houston minus twenty three per

676
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: Kimpom against Oklahoma State. They're angry, man. I think it's

677
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: poundtown on the cow pokes. Oklahoma State also coming off

678
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: a win against Utah. This Houston team, I'm gonna be stubborn, man.

679
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, this team is really good. I know

680
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: they've lost a few games here, they're really really good

681
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: and they just decimate inferior competition. So Houston will be

682
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: a play for me. Yeah.

683
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: Forty West Virginia thirty six points for Utah, where's the

684
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: b yu had fifty five?

685
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

686
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: If you don't have a good offense, it looks even

687
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: worse against Houston.

688
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: That's kind of what they're built to do.

689
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,719
Speaker 2: Small fears that they've been banged up, Sharpshart a little bit,

690
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 2: Robertson hurt a little bit, rolls out Cole again. And

691
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State's actually good on the defensive glass, tops in

692
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 2: the entire Big twelve on in defensive rebound rate, and

693
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: that's big against Houston. But Matt, maybe maybe what I

694
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: do here is I just bet Olahoma State team total

695
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: under because I have no clue how they score.

696
00:32:58,800 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

697
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 3: I bet Ocloma State the first meeting just disaster decision

698
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 3: by me. They had one point the final ten minutes

699
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: of the end of the first half. I mean, it's

700
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 3: just like they couldn't. I don't think Ahoma State's offense

701
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: is good at all in but when you you're right,

702
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 3: when you play Houston, they make you look really, really

703
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 3: bad and stupid.

704
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: So to your point, though, Matt, that first matchup, Houston

705
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: was kind of dominating the whole game. But Houston had

706
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: five offensive rebounds, just five, and Oklahoma State got to

707
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: the line eighteen times. They're gonna get inst the line,

708
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: they're going to rebound. Oklom's ages was just twenty eight

709
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: percent from two and they just can't just couldn't score.

710
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: Its all Houston there.

711
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: I think when you play that game in Houston, the

712
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 3: free throw disparity will probably swing back.

713
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: In the think. But I watched the Houston Next Tech

714
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: game and I saw some tough calls on the Kooks.

715
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: We'll say, yeah, in the Antex attacks both ways, but

716
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 1: it should be more one sided on the home floor. Okay, finally,

717
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: the trash section the trash Man pick of the week.

718
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: I'm the trash man just throw me the trash, your garbage,

719
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: and you know it totally unreliable, it undependently it.

720
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: That's it. You've been told off. How do you like that? Good?

721
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 1: We talked about Northern Millinois last week. They actually stuck

722
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 1: inside a number against Akron, just barely, just barely to

723
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: cover against the Zips this week. There aren't a lot

724
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: of dumpsters on Monday, but this one is a special

725
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: dumpster number. So there are three hundred and sixty four

726
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: teams in the country, fellas, as you guys know, three

727
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two. Coppin State plays at three point

728
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 1: sixty Maryland Eastern Shore in a MIAC battle. UMES is

729
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: actually favored by six per kimpom despite being going five

730
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: in the conference. They've played a top twenty schedule in

731
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: the country. No real shame in them being just beaten

732
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 1: every single game because they have just played just a

733
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 1: tough schedule. Coppin number one defensive turn rate in the league.

734
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: Coppin also completely inept on the offensive end. They're the

735
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: second worst offense in the country, right ahead of Missippi

736
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: Valley State. They are scoring zero point eight six y

737
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 1: nine points per possession. That's atrocious. Gonna be a good

738
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 1: old fashioned trash game. Do you have any opinion on

739
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: this game, Matthew at all? No.

740
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 3: I was actually looking at the MAC because I talked

741
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: about how the Max bad this year and I like

742
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 3: the MAC.

743
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 1: It's a fun league historically. This year now it's fun. Yeah. No,

744
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 1: just the single macing this premise completely. Yeah.

745
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, an opinion on I know, I'm like too good

746
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 3: for the extra boredom, kind of pompous and arrogant in

747
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 3: that round. So I have no actual opinions on these,

748
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 3: but Jim, all the hockey pass to you.

749
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: I have a couple of MAC takes. Uh. Kaye talked

750
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 1: about AKR in the last one, but yeah, go ahead, Jim, No, No, Matt,

751
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,280
Speaker 1: you sound read or rock fired in then.

752
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 3: Well, kay teased with n I U I think and

753
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 3: I used like call it a mini wagon, uh like

754
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 3: a kid wagon if you will. Like they've been, you know,

755
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,720
Speaker 3: they played until you know, very competitively. They got Ethan

756
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 3: Butler back, they got McPherson back, they got Muhammed back.

757
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,919
Speaker 1: It looks like a real team now. Like they have talent.

758
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 3: They've never been devoid of talent, not saying they have

759
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 3: upper echelon acro little talent, but they do have talent.

760
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 3: It just hasn't been healthy at all this year. I

761
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 3: think it gets Bowling Green, who is close to getting healthier.

762
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 3: I still think that team. It's the first time and

763
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 3: I will play a team that they will have more

764
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 3: bodies than Frankly and I think they're shooting actually could

765
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 3: potentially slice and dice.

766
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: Beg's kind of leaky zone. We love Marcus Johnson.

767
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 3: He got a little pub because he had that big

768
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 3: game with Michigan State right in don Con. But they

769
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 3: don't play in the defense and he's kind of a

770
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 3: micropos master wise, so and IU is sort of a

771
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 3: trash pick for me, Kyle on Tuesday.

772
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: To your point, they've covered five straight games in IU,

773
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: so they have been on a bit of a streak. Yeah,

774
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: Bowling Green. I'm not laying six points with Bowling Green

775
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 1: or whatever the spread's going to be. If I get

776
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: a touchdown, I'll be I'll be a husky. Yeah, Allie

777
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: in your way as one man that one, Cole, I'm

778
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 1: just looking at the one you propose.

779
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: The Eastern Shore and Coppin it's kind of a big

780
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 2: yeah pace tug of war where Eastern Shore is the

781
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: slowest team in the conference by possession length and Coppen

782
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 2: is the fastest. You mentioned how bad Coppin's offense is.

783
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 2: So if Eastern Shore at home can control tempo a

784
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 2: little bit, I think under might have some some juice there,

785
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 2: just because cop and can't score, and if they can't

786
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 2: get paced, they can't get transition, then it could get

787
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 2: really just a gross, gross game.

788
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 1: Love it. Okay, Fellas, no spoting section again this this week.

789
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 1: We will try to get back on that we used to. Come. Wait,

790
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: I just lost.

791
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 2: Jim has one no one more fun fact on the

792
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 2: chart game, I should have their six point favorites for

793
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 2: Ken Pound.

794
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: They have no d one wins this year. It's kind

795
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 1: of crazy, Ethan. I call it a good spot for MS.

796
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: Then they're hungry. They know they can win this game

797
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: their favor probably the first time while you're their favorite,

798
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: is my assumption.

799
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:37,760
Speaker 2: I would guess that that is correct. Yes, yes, yeah,

800
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: Eastern Shores of Lean there for sure. Okay, recap on

801
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 2: the picks. I'm taking a nice little smattering here, b

802
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 2: y U UCLA Houston Christian.

803
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: Jim convinced me I'm in. Yes, I'm taking them on

804
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 1: the spread. Against Nichols, expect around eight or so. Now

805
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: on a pit I'm going to take against Virginia lay

806
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: in probably around twelve, Akron laying around fourteen to fifteen

807
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,720
Speaker 1: against ball State Murray State. I am going to stick

808
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: my neck out there. I need to get at least five.

809
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:10,439
Speaker 1: If it's less than five, no thanks, at least five there,

810
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: and then in IU. Matt convinced me on that one

811
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: hope to get a touchdown. I don't think we're gonna

812
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: see it. I actually expect that. I you to take

813
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: money probably down to five. But Huskies for me, Matt,

814
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: what do you have? Huskies as well? One of my five.

815
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: I'm going to.

816
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 3: Bride both of the bullies you suggested. With Akron Pitt,

817
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 3: we discussed k State. We also discussed I talk myself

818
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 3: into it.

819
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 1: That's four.

820
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 3: And then for a fraction of a unit, let's sell

821
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 3: money line from the cheap seats, Get hot Explorers, love it.

822
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: Man, shoot to get how to stay Hot.

823
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had a poor.

824
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 1: Week last week, so I'm gonna kee volume a little

825
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: bit lower.

826
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 2: As much as I'm tempted by both Pitt and Akron,

827
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: I'll just hopefully watch you guys collect.

828
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 1: Winners and not and I end up missing out.

829
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: But I'm taking BYU minus one. We talked about it,

830
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 2: maybe up to three. I would love to get two

831
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 2: and a half. They covered two and a half for

832
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 2: US against Baylor in overtime, so give us that one

833
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: more time. Cougars another Cougar's Houston minus twenty three. I'm

834
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: gonna go half unit on that and a full unit

835
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 2: bet on Oklahoma State team total under somewhere around fifty

836
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 2: five ish. That's where kim Pom's got it projected. I

837
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 2: anticipated it'll be around there.

838
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:18,879
Speaker 1: I said.

839
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 2: North Texas minus one, the more disciplined team against UAB,

840
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 2: I think they out execute them. And Houston Christian plus

841
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: eight and moneyline full unit on the spread and like

842
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 2: a half unit on the on the money line.

843
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: Hope to get a big winner there. So that's all

844
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 1: I'm going with this week. Love it a healthy slate

845
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: for the Weavers. Thank you for joining us on the

846
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus podcast. Tune in the rest of

847
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,439
Speaker 1: the week for the other guys taking you through college

848
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: basketball slate. We will be back next week Monday morning

849
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: talking more Monday and Tuesday early week hoops. Till then,

850
00:39:50,000 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: good luck, on your bets, enjoy college basketball. Action Network

851
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

852
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

853
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler