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Speaker 1: Swimming Upstream, Episode fifty six. I am your host Kevin Burrall,

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Speaker 1: and I am here with Eli Sussman, a fish on

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Speaker 1: founder of Fish On First, No Alex Carver. Today, we

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Speaker 1: are gonna be talking a couple stuff here. First, obviously,

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Speaker 1: DJ Spillik no longer with the Miami Marlins, and we

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Speaker 1: put out our fish On First Top thirty Prospects list,

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Speaker 1: the end of season update heading into the offseason, So

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about that. Eli, what's up? Excited

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Speaker 1: to talk some minor league baseball? It feels like this

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Speaker 1: is the week to do it. Right before I guess

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Speaker 1: we see all these roster transactions. Obviously Marlins have to

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Speaker 1: make up that have to make their forty man roster.

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Speaker 2: As the enter of the offseason, Yeah, I think we've

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Speaker 2: almost made it through the dullest part, not the I

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Speaker 2: guess the dullest part of the year is like Christmas

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Speaker 2: and Thanksgiving where absolutely nothing happens. But other than that,

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Speaker 2: this is pretty down there in terms of just not

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Speaker 2: just waiting on stuff to develop, especially in the Marlin

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Speaker 2: situation where there's about to be a flood of rumors

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Speaker 2: and such. When it comes to this head of baseball

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Speaker 2: operations search, but this early in the process is still

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Speaker 2: a bit of a quiet period, so we fill it

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Speaker 2: as best we can.

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Speaker 1: So as always, make sure to like and subscribe, follow

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Speaker 1: us on all the social medias, and wherever you listen

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Speaker 1: to the podcast, make sure to give it a five

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Speaker 1: star rating. So let's start with Djsphilic. The Miami Moroles

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Speaker 1: part ways with their director of amateur scouting. He is

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Speaker 1: the one who essentially drafts the players and he has

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Speaker 1: been what he was with the organization since twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: and the parts after the season, I believe the first

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Speaker 1: one who reported the news with Barry Jackson. Then Isaac Azoute,

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Speaker 1: our guy Isaac Azut confirmed it and mentioned that they

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Speaker 1: did not renew his contract. ELI really shouldn't be much

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Speaker 1: of a surprise the fact that he is now gone,

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Speaker 1: especially with Kim, we expected him to not really survive

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Speaker 1: this turnover in the organization. We're gonna play a quick

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Speaker 1: game here. I went by. I went back and looked

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Speaker 1: at all the guys that ended up going to the

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Speaker 1: major leagues. That's Philip drafted. So I don't do you

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Speaker 1: want to include Kyle Hurt in this. He did not

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Speaker 1: make it with the MA Leans, but he didn't make

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Speaker 1: it with the Dodgers, So this changes the answer. Do

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Speaker 1: you want to include Kyle Hurt in this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sure he is.

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Speaker 1: So how many major leaguers and how many players that

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Speaker 1: DJ Philip drafted since twenty eighteen ended up going to

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Speaker 1: the big leagues?

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Speaker 2: Well, you're counting twenty eighteen, and we won't be technical

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Speaker 2: about it. I don't think he was calling all the

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Speaker 2: shots in the twenty eighteen draft. I think it was

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Speaker 2: really twenty nineteen where he really put his hint on

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Speaker 2: the steering wheel. But in the twenty eighteen chapter, there's

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Speaker 2: only one or very few guys from that draft anyway

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Speaker 2: they've made up. So if you include everything to this point,

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Speaker 2: there will be more. But I guess to this point,

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Speaker 2: I would guess eleven players.

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Speaker 1: Close, it's nine. The twenty nineteen draft actually had one, two, three, four,

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Speaker 1: five guys who've made the big leagues. That's the most. Yeah, so,

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Speaker 1: and then twenty eighteen was fourth as an Alex Vessia

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Speaker 1: will include VESSI obviously in that twenty twenty shortened season,

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I think the point stands. DJ drafted Connor

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Speaker 1: Scott that was more of a Gary unbow pick, but

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Speaker 1: he was in the position already. He wasn't as when

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Speaker 1: he's the parted the organization. JJ Blede was his first

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Speaker 1: real pick. That was his guy, Max Meyer, Khali Watson,

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Speaker 1: Jacob Barry, Noble Meyer. Out of those guys, Scott, Blade

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Speaker 1: and Watson are no longer with the organization, obviously, still

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Speaker 1: time for the other guys. Max Meyer is the only

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Speaker 1: draft pick out of those first rounders that made it

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Speaker 1: to the big leagues. Eli just Oh and Jaja Bledeh.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry your just overall thoughts on DJ's tenure, if

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Speaker 1: you saw this coming and what's next for this organization

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Speaker 1: now that DJ's no longer here.

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Speaker 2: Right, I am not surprised by the news. What I

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Speaker 2: do want to reiterate is that it just takes so

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Speaker 2: long to really create these draft classes. As best as

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Speaker 2: we know, it was really twenty nineteen where he really

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Speaker 2: took hold and head, even though he's in the organization

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Speaker 2: before then. That's kind of when he got elevated to

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Speaker 2: this position of calling some of the shots, especially in

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Speaker 2: the early rounds. It takes time to develop these guys,

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Speaker 2: especially they're drafted out of high school. So I think

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Speaker 2: the concern is that they started to see some of

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Speaker 2: these college players have. They invested a lot in not

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Speaker 2: panning out Bleday being just a great example of a

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Speaker 2: player they thought was extremely safe and yet just has

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Speaker 2: at this point he is a fringy big leaguer at best,

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Speaker 2: and they dealt him while he still had a bit

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Speaker 2: of positive value. But to see how much that decreased

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Speaker 2: in just a few years based on his lack of

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Speaker 2: development was really concerning. It goes hand in hand with

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Speaker 2: the player development stuff. It really is unknowable how much

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Speaker 2: of this is really picking the wrong players versus not

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Speaker 2: putting those players in a position to get better when

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Speaker 2: they were in the organization. And another aspect of that,

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Speaker 2: though that went against DJ. He is understanding what your

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Speaker 2: organist does well, like there are certain types of players

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Speaker 2: that are not going to be quite as successful in

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Speaker 2: your organization as others, just based on what your instructors

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Speaker 2: are able to teach them and improve with these guys. So,

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Speaker 2: in general, this is an organization that's done very well

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Speaker 2: at developing players to become starting pitchers or starting pitching options,

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Speaker 2: and there were times where he did lean into that.

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Speaker 2: Twenty twenty was a great example where they went all

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Speaker 2: pitching with that, and pretty much all those guys at

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Speaker 2: least had a little smidgeon of a chance to stick

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Speaker 2: as starters moving forward, and it just takes time for

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Speaker 2: that stuff to play out. Where Max Meyer is a

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Speaker 2: great example. He's barely pitching the big leagues because he

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Speaker 2: tore his elbow, but he's going to come back from

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Speaker 2: that this upcoming season and who knows where his career

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Speaker 2: goes from here. So it was a mix of things,

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Speaker 2: and you don't want to like pint too much on

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Speaker 2: one guy, especially one that was one of the more

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Speaker 2: recent picks. But the Jacob Barry decision was one that

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Speaker 2: even in the moment, you didn't need a second guess,

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Speaker 2: so just first guessing it, it was perplexing. It was

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Speaker 2: hard to get in the same page. This organization was

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Speaker 2: seeing that we weren't when it came to amateur draft

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Speaker 2: decisions in that particular case, just selecting players where it

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Speaker 2: seemed that they were better options on the board, where

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Speaker 2: just understanding the opportunity that they had. They entrusted DJ

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Speaker 2: three different times with picks that were I guess you

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Speaker 2: could say now four. A lot of these were very

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Speaker 2: early first round picks. These are guys where the upside,

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Speaker 2: you can pick from almost every everybody in the country.

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Speaker 2: When you're drafting three overall and six overall, these are

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Speaker 2: opportunities that the Models might not have for a long time. Again,

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Speaker 2: even if they are kind of even if they don't

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Speaker 2: bought him out in rebuilds like, these are rare opportunities.

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Speaker 2: And it doesn't seem that he really hid it out

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Speaker 2: of the park with any of these super early picks.

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Speaker 2: So when you're entrusted with making these big decisions and

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Speaker 2: you're even early in this process, it's kind of clear

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Speaker 2: that they didn't get big difference makers needle movers here,

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Speaker 2: and it puts them in this organization where the situation

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Speaker 2: where the organization just does not have a whole lot

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Speaker 2: of home grown impact players coming up through the system,

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Speaker 2: and that just leaves them with this. It puts them

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Speaker 2: in a big bind. If you don't develop your own,

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Speaker 2: like starting caliber players above average players, then it's so

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Speaker 2: expensive to acquire them from outside the organization. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I understand the move, and we will see what direction

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Speaker 2: they go from here. Right now, it is a void

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Speaker 2: that the new head of Baseball ops is going to

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Speaker 2: have to fill.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is you know, this is one of those

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Speaker 1: moves that was expected, as I think we've mentioned a

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Speaker 1: couple of times and Loot. You look at these past

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Speaker 1: drafts and it's just the first round picks is where

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Speaker 1: it's really hurting, because look at twenty nineteen, for example,

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Speaker 1: those middle to late round picks have come up to

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Speaker 1: really work out for the team. I mean, he's not

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Speaker 1: that good, but Brian Hoag's been on the big league

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Speaker 1: team for a very long time and he's been a

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Speaker 1: contributor there. And Drew Nardi is someone who is the

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Speaker 1: Marlin's second best reliever on the team right now. Josh

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Speaker 1: Simpson was also in that draft. He made it up

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Speaker 1: to the new who's probably ends up making the twenty

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Speaker 1: six man roster hopefully opening day. And Peyton Burdict has

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Speaker 1: turned out to as the most the best raw power

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Speaker 1: in this organization right now. Guy hits a bomb every

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Speaker 1: game and you look at it and that's where he's

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Speaker 1: really hit. And it kind of felt like also this

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three draft kind of felt like his last

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Speaker 1: saving grace. I think you could make the case there

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Speaker 1: he went really he went pitcher heavy, you know, in

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Speaker 1: the draft that had some pretty good hitters. They passed

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Speaker 1: up on guys like Kyle Teal. I believe they passed

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Speaker 1: up on a couple guys there that are at the

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Speaker 1: Double A level right now, or they were at the

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Speaker 1: Double A level as the season ended and he decided

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Speaker 1: to go to nobel Meyer. And obviously not a bad

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Speaker 1: pick by any means, but you would have kind of wished,

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Speaker 1: maybe go with the hitter, go with the go with

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Speaker 1: the blue chip prospect. This organization, aside from Yuri, hasn't

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Speaker 1: had a single blue chip prospect since Christian Yelich, and

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's that's a very long time ago.

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Speaker 1: That's what twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen, Eli Well.

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Speaker 2: I think that's kind for visionist history. When they acquired

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Speaker 2: Lewis Brinston in the Yellows trade, coincidentally, he was extremely high,

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Speaker 2: highly regarded at the time as well. That was the

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Speaker 2: number of former first round pick with a couple organizations

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Speaker 2: ago they've had in six to oh when six to

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Speaker 2: oh was healthy and the like. He was another blue

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Speaker 2: chip guy. But of course those guys were not drafted

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Speaker 2: and developed by the organization. So that's yeah, when you

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Speaker 2: take away if drafting your own guys through the US

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Speaker 2: isn't going to lead itself to any of these impact players.

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Speaker 2: Then you either have to be dominant in the international

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Speaker 2: market or you have to be really shrewd with the

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Speaker 2: trades that you make. And the Marlins they've had a

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Speaker 2: mixed track record with the trades internationally. They had Yuri

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Speaker 2: has been their one breakout guy these last few years. Internationally.

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Speaker 2: He wasn't even the top of his international class, who

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Speaker 2: was kind of in the middle there, and for him

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Speaker 2: to develop kind of beyond everybody's expectations that a lot

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Speaker 2: of people deserve credit for that. But that is a

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Speaker 2: completely separate department than the than the like the US

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Speaker 2: side of things. So right now both of those departments

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Speaker 2: under the new leadership are going to get shaken up.

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Speaker 2: We already know with Adriana Lorenzo on the international side

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Speaker 2: moving on to pursue other things and with DJ on

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Speaker 2: the draft side, it's going to be a very different look.

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Speaker 2: And frankly, there's not much you can go but up

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Speaker 2: with this because it just as a whole organization farm

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Speaker 2: development operation. On both sides of things, there was like

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Speaker 2: a lot left to be desired and they have made

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Speaker 2: some trades recently to improve the major league team. They

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Speaker 2: were simply unable to replace some of those guys by

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Speaker 2: developing them. That's how you end up in this situation

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Speaker 2: where it is, by most people's accounts, it's one of

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Speaker 2: the weakest farm systems in baseball.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and then the last thing I'll mention with the

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Speaker 1: international scouting and the signing, I guess it's worth noting that,

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Speaker 1: you know, they've been able to make most of their

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Speaker 1: trades due to the signings they've made in this past.

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Speaker 1: You're obvious the most recently. Look at the David Robertson trade,

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Speaker 1: Ronald Trnandez, Marko Vargas, Marco Vargus, who I think signed

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Speaker 1: for as low as you could possibly think. That guy

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Speaker 1: is now going to be one of the better prospects

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Speaker 1: in the Mets organization. He's going to probably be a

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Speaker 1: top one hundred prospect very soon. Ronald Trnandez was the

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Speaker 1: morelins best catching prospect in the organization. You can make

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Speaker 1: the case up to that point, and he has now

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Speaker 1: gone as well. I mean, Miami has been able to

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Speaker 1: thrive off of the international market in terms of being

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Speaker 1: able to sign these guys, to develop them, and then

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Speaker 1: trade them, and I think you would agree that right

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Speaker 1: now where the best part of the minor league system

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Speaker 1: kind of goes back to the Dominican Republic FCIL and

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Speaker 1: even Jupiter.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and it's not necessarily that those guys are guaranteed studs.

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Speaker 2: It's just that we haven't seen them fail yet. That's

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Speaker 2: kind of the unfortunate viewpoint we have to take, where

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Speaker 2: if we haven't seen you fail, then there's still hope

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Speaker 2: that you continue on like a positive trajectory. There have

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Speaker 2: been too many of these guys that hit a wall

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Speaker 2: on the hitting side, especially at a certain stage of

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Speaker 2: their development. They've taken the last few years, and we'll

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Speaker 2: be this is another thing we'll be curious to see

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Speaker 2: if it continues. The last couple of international signing periods.

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Speaker 2: They've stayed away from the big names ever since Yidie Kape.

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Speaker 2: He was the last big name, multimillion dollar guy they

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Speaker 2: signed internationally. Since then, they've just been spreading out the money.

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Speaker 2: They've had those two DSL teams, DSL Miami and DSL Marlins.

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Speaker 2: They've been just shooting their shot in so many different directions,

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Speaker 2: going for quantity over perceived quality, just thinking that at

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Speaker 2: that young in age, those guys can really surprise you.

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Speaker 2: And that's another aspect that it will take even longer

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Speaker 2: to fully suss out. But yeah, there were a handful

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Speaker 2: of those guys signed the last couple of cycles that

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Speaker 2: we think have pretty promising potential if they stay on track.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I was talking to Adrian, who you know,

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Speaker 1: we wishing the best, wish him and DJ the best, both,

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Speaker 1: you know, guys who've supported this outlet a lot. They

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Speaker 1: would help, They were very helpful throughout the years. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I was talking to him a new stelling,

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Speaker 1: you know, and I don't know if this is just

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Speaker 1: him saying it because obviously at the time it's still

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Speaker 1: part of the organization. But you mentioned that this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a signing class that's going to be

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Speaker 1: very promising, you know, a lot of centerfield type prospects,

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Speaker 1: a lot of catching prospects that are parts of that

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Speaker 1: this organization lacks. And obviously we'll do a deeper dive

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Speaker 1: once that they had when once these signings are announced,

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Speaker 1: and I believe a couple of months have been January

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Speaker 1: ish December ish, so once those are done, we'll find

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Speaker 1: out and I guess it's worth noting before we move

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Speaker 1: on to the top thirty, Eli that the Marlins are

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Speaker 1: projected to pick nineteenth in the MLB Draft, So that

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Speaker 1: is the lowest since twenty ten, as you mentioned.

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Speaker 2: Since Christian Yelich was the last player that dropped down there.

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Speaker 2: So it just shows you that, you know, sometimes it's

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Speaker 2: not the worst thing as long as you really do

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Speaker 2: your work and come out with a player you're really

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Speaker 2: confident in that spot.

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Speaker 1: And then the last thing I'll mentioned before we move

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Speaker 1: on to the top thirty TEK, is any names that

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Speaker 1: kind of stand out to you when it comes to

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Speaker 1: possible options for this spot that to take over DJ

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Speaker 1: or are you kind of worried more about the president

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Speaker 1: of Baseball than going there? Right?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we will see how that plays out. I imagine

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Speaker 2: they'll go outside the organization to bring in is going

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Speaker 2: to run that stuff? Yeah, so that still is to

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Speaker 2: be determined right there. This is just the easiest place

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Speaker 2: is to look at organizations that have had a lot

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Speaker 2: of success with the MLB Draft recently, and probably the

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Speaker 2: very best example is the Baltimore Orioles where they've built

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Speaker 2: up this incredible farm system and almost all those guys

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Speaker 2: are from the US, so many of them are ones

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Speaker 2: that they've plucked out of this system. So whether the

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Speaker 2: Baseball operations head is one of those Orioles lieutenants, or

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Speaker 2: whether it is that they try to prive somebody from

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Speaker 2: that entire infrastructure for the new amateur scouting position that

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Speaker 2: places DJ. There are other organizations that seem to have

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Speaker 2: a consistent best practices for how to like interpret the

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Speaker 2: amateur data that they get and get good value in

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Speaker 2: the drafts. And I imagine the Marlins are going to

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Speaker 2: be in that position where they are. They need they

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Speaker 2: need help, They need outside counsel and outside ideas for

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Speaker 2: how to get the best out of this group. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: because that's the only way that it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a sustainable good team is if you're able to do

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Speaker 2: a whole lot better than they have been doing the

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Speaker 2: last five years.

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Speaker 1: We'll see what happens there, but we'll be this was

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Speaker 1: swimming upstream, very weird, No Alex Carver, but hopefully to

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Speaker 1: have them on soon and uh, we'll have a lot

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Speaker 1: of player prospects on here for you know, off season content.

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Speaker 1: So from Eli myself, we'll see you guys in the

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Speaker 1: next one piece out and go fish