WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 Week 1 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:08.000 Check it down man, Tuesday morning, September fifth, twenty twenty three. 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:12.319 It is the Beating the Book podcast Megapod week number 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:18.919 one of the NFL season. Our thirteenth year doing the megapod. 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:24.319 Thirteen we were podcasting before podcasting was cool. Thank you 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:26.040 for all your loyalty through the years doing this. It's 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.479 Gil Alexander. Let me introduce the two staples of the show. 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:31.880 I'm at the D Bar Canada, at the D here 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:35.240 in Las Vegas. Two staples of the show this year. 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:38.520 One from his mom's cork Attic you know him well, 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:42.760 star of the showtime Docuseriies Action. And this here podcast 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.440 it's Todd wishing them. How you doing, DoD? 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:49.919 I'm doing great because of this? 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:55.000 All right, Todd? Do you want to This is Todd? 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:57.960 This is not This is not a video to Odd. 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:01.520 This is this is actual audio four on fourth. 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:04.480 And twenty to give Todd the championship last year with 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.080 a thirty twenty two and one record, beating Gilly thirty 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.440 twenty three by a half a game. And I bring 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:12.800 it up only because Fess here with us, and he 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:16.000 told me that the Texans would tank in the last week. 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:19.520 Wasn't wait a minute. Wasn't there controversy surrounding that? Last? 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:23.920 Last year you did not win, there was controversy surrounding it. 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:25.119 Could you explain. 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:27.360 Why you created punt? No? 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.119 I didn't create any controversy. There was controversy. You didn't 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:31.920 win it out right, stop it already. 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.200 I went thirty twenty two and one to thirty and 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:34.759 twenty three. 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:36.679 No, there was controversy. I have to go back and 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.160 listen now because you're not being forthright about it. Wasn't 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:40.200 there controversial actor? 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:42.640 No, you can go back and listen. I won on 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:44.880 that play on the fourth and twenty play. If you remember, 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:45.639 I'm want. 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:47.480 To say, no, but whatever I'm going to say, you didn't. 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.880 Remember I did that. Remember I did the announcers boys 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:51.720 that you guys were making fun of me because it 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:52.440 was ridiculous. 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:54.560 She did it because you did. Andre. Where is an 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.760 old Southern gentleman? That's right. I forgot the other staple 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:00.400 of the show this year, new to the Meg Pod. 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:04.680 He's been a guest before. It is Fox Sports is 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:07.400 Will Hill. Everybody? How you doing Will. 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:11.360 Boys? I'm honored, I'm excited to be on. 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.200 I just hope Gil let's Todd talk I mean, you 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:16.400 could say Todd interrupts, but Gill just doesn't give him 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:17.320 the opportunity to talk. 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:20.000 So hopefully that happens this year. I'm excited football is back. 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:20.440 Let's go. 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:22.800 Oh man tell us so, by the way, on Fox, 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:24.360 what are you doing exactly with the Bear? 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:28.000 Yeah, that's gonna be part of Bear Bets podcast. First 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:30.680 episode aired last Thursday. I'm part of a roundtable with 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:34.520 the Bear, Jeff Schwartz, former NFL offensive lineman who you've 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:38.359 had on this podcast, and Sammy p and of course myself. 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:42.600 So it should be fun. They drop usually Thursday morning sometimes, 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:44.000 so look for that this week. 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:46.840 Jeff Schwartz big fan of Todd's as well. We established 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:48.960 that what he was on here and we always have, 0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:50.920 of course the the makeabout for met as we always 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:52.240 have a rotating guest each and every year. 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:55.160 Like that, I challenged him on the Steelers offensive line. 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:59.800 Sorry, rotating guess Week one is the only back to 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:03.040 back champion of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:07.440 One of the smartest betters we know, a former actuary 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:11.480 who uses his math prowess to aggressively get the best 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.960 of every number. Steve Zick everybody. 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.280 How you doing, man? You forgot that you buried the league. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:20.840 Todd, We'll get there. Could you just stop? Really, this 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:21.760 is a bad start. 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:23.959 Really, well not for those who bet over six and 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:27.240 a half interruptions, because those guys are off to a 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:29.880 good start here on the prop betting market. 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:32.800 Oh my god, for undred to be here, thank you, 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:34.480 thank you, thank you for doing it. We'll have you 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.800 on again later this year as well. But you went 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:39.240 how much? How much do you weigh right now? 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.560 Two oh two? But good news. 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:43.080 Yeah. 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:45.960 When I weighed myself this morning, I was above two hundred. Yeah, 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:47.720 and that means I'm not allowed to eat until the 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:48.440 sun goes down. 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:50.440 It's like you really hold to that. You just fast. 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:53.640 Yeah, that's like it's like the stop gap. I cannot 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:56.080 go above two hundred. Todd ridiculed the method. 0:03:56.640 --> 0:04:00.160 Ridiculed it. Todd. The the ozempic or whatever Todd is 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:04.320 taking is it's not working for him. Well, he's doing 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:05.520 well the last week though. 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.760 Yeah, I'm not no empic. After I gained back all 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:12.040 the weight like a loser, I went on Monjaro and 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.400 it's slowed. I've lost about fifteen twenty pounds, but I'm 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:16.120 not doing well? 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:18.919 All right, could you tell the people what text you 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:20.120 received before this show? 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.719 Yeah, so I got text from our panel. 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:22.920 Here. 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.080 This is from Todd give me two or three week 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:31.000 one NFL points. No, please, no, thank you, just give 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:31.440 up to me. 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:35.000 Ye oh okay, Stevie, if that's the game, we're gonna 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:36.000 pay ahead it. 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:37.960 Will it Will say, I'm just answering the questions you 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:38.919 just answered. The question. 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.760 Will said, what is your first Megapod pick? Mike, I 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:43.320 need to know? 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.560 I responded, like in the Wonka movie, that would be 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.560 cheating well, to which he responded, Oh, it's not cheating. 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:50.640 Can you give me your picks? 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.720 This is serious business, people, Come on, this. 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:56.000 Is time like hearing what Steve has to say, so 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:57.800 then I can shoot it down. Like last year he said, 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.600 the Texans are gonna the Textans are going to uh, 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:03.320 they're gonna tank in the last game of the season. 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:05.440 But I said, no, they're not fourth and twenty. It's 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.120 a touchdown thirty two, thirty one. Thank you? 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.520 Oh? Can we can we we establish one thing before 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:10.800 we start the show, because there's a lot of people 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:13.960 who are on gambling Twitter. Are you and Brad Power's friends? 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:15.680 Are you enemies. What's the story with that? 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:18.279 It kind of depends upon the day, okay, and who 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.760 and who got them the best of the other, you know, 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:24.159 on the last game. By the way, powers like lean 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:26.440 to Clemson last night. I didn't see it myself. 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:27.080 I was on Duke. 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:31.120 Clemson should have had twenty more points. 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:34.440 If you cashed with the under, you probably were a 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:36.599 little bit four to Todd. Todd and I like the 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:38.480 third quarter under. That was an easy one. 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.280 I had the second half under, which is ridiculous that 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:43.360 that got home, But so did I. But I will 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.279 say this about Steve Feszick, who not only is a 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.479 is a really good better. And I hope you don't 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:49.600 take this and I said this to you before. I 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:51.320 hope you don't take this with a fence. I say 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:55.159 it with such envy. You are also the luckiest better 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:58.719 I've ever And I mean this, if something has a 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:01.240 chance to go your way, Todd, back me up on 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:04.839 this somehow. What's the word you use? Luckbox? Stevie, luckbox, 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:06.039 Steve Stevie. 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.240 I call him Stevie luckbox. He is he is the 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.440 lucky I mean, now, maybe it hasn't been his whole life, 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:15.200 but he's on a run right now, where his fortuitiveness. 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:18.120 For example, last night the third quarter under which we 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:22.880 had absolutely no chance of covering and somehow did okay. 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:25.400 So people know the format of this show and I 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:27.400 want to get into it. The format is, by the way, 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:31.520 just to remind myself while I remind everybody, three best 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.159 bets of the week. Sides are totals teaser of the week. 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:36.479 We're talking about a two team six pointer. If you 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:38.240 want to give us or five or play you can, 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:40.560 that's optional. And then of course at the end, which 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:42.640 big favor is most likely lose? Out right? Which game 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:45.679 you want no part of in terms of the spread? 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.840 Before we do that, Since it is week one, Steve, 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:52.440 is there anything you would like to impart on the audience, 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:56.479 either from an opinion standpoint or just a macro betting standpoint. 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:59.040 You know, any one season, there's a whole lot of 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:01.680 luck involved with all this. So if you tell me, 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:05.840 like a major contest and there's ten thousand people in it, well, 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:08.280 whoever wins, that's gotta be like one of the best 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:10.640 betters in the world. Well not so much. You know, 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:14.480 Jamie gold won. You know, the main event and Dodge 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:16.920 rain drops for seven days. You know Moneymaker, who's a 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.520 baker who's a pretty good poker player. Actually, yeah, but 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:21.640 you got you got the aggression part, right, But he's 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:23.640 not going to be confused with a top fifty player 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.480 in the world, So don't overreact. I ran better than 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:28.760 God in two thousand and eight and two thousand and 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:31.840 nine when I won the four contests. And the thing 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:33.800 about that I had four first place finishes. You know 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:35.320 how many top twenties I had? 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:36.200 How many? 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:36.480 Four? 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:38.360 Yeah? 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:40.640 That's uh, that's that's running good. 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:42.920 Yeah, running good. By the way, about that poker thing, 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:47.400 this is true story. My dad's cousin's kid finished third 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:51.920 once year one year in World Series. Wow, so it is. 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:54.920 And he's completely not a poker player, right and finish third? 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:58.600 Look it up, ben VENISTI was the last Ben VENISTI 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:03.320 Oh okay. So Will Todd's same question to you. Is 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.120 there anything you all want to say before week one 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:06.560 or you just want to dive into the format. What 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:07.360 do you want to do? Will? 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.160 Yeah, I would say Division dogs week one. I mean, 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.080 first of all, I just hate laying a number really 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.480 anytime in the NFL. But week one, you made the 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:17.560 point yeah, we think we know stuff, but Colorado TC 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.440 you perfect example. We don't know as much as we 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:21.600 think we know. So be careful laying points, which is 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:25.200 gonna get contradicted by some of my picks. But Week 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:27.720 one traditionally good for the dog, especially division dogs at home. 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:29.960 God, I mean. 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:31.760 To that end, I would have had the second place 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:36.000 pick in the brackets tortament NCAA Tournament challenge over with 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.560 thousands of people for a million dollars in the DraftKings. 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.679 So you know you called my picks for KACTA when 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.440 I said San Diego State versus Yukon, and that's what 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:46.439 ended up happening in I will say, Will, if you 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.120 guys don't listen to this, guys, if you guys don't 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:51.800 listen to the NCAA Tournament podcast that Gilly does, you 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:55.000 should start doing this. Will Hill had FAU in the 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.560 final four, and I had San Diego State Yukon, and 0:08:57.640 --> 0:08:58.800 so you should listen to that. 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:03.920 That NCAA podcast might have been the most accurate insane 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:06.960 betting and display ever. Will did have FAU in the 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:11.040 final four. Todd had San Diego State, and I know 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.840 Todd tells stories a certain way, which always cast dispersions 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:16.280 on others, particularly me. But what did I say to 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:20.600 you multiple times during that podcast? Multiple times? 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:22.040 Right? 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:26.480 And your entry put in your damn entry the big 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:29.760 fool and you didn't and it almost cost you a 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:30.160 million dollar? 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.679 Would you say big? Or you're referring to how how 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:34.320 large a folly is or how large he is as 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:34.760 a person. 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:36.200 I'll leave that up to the listener. 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:38.800 All right, all right, you know what's funny. I live 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:39.520 in Connecticut. 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:42.640 Fau was a split second away from winning the national 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.480 championship in Connectic because Connecticut teams don't count in that pool. 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.440 So a tenth of a second left, San Diego State 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:49.800 hit a shot which I didn't bet him win a 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:51.520 national title. So if they won that game, I probably 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:53.440 would have been uh, would have been kicking myself. But 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:55.920 a little little uh nugget there, just based on the rules, 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.640 Fau was that close to being declared the champion, at 0:09:58.720 --> 0:09:59.760 least for Connecticut. 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:01.640 Pon. How often do you go back and watch the 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.000 Elite eight game where Fau gets into the final four? 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:07.080 Now, don't I don't relive the past? Maybe three four 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:07.600 times a week? 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:12.360 Time? Sure, all right, let's do this week one of 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:15.720 the NFL, and again this is the caveat of Look, 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:20.559 even survivor pools are hard. Week one. We know stuff 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.000 to a degree, but there's some stuff we always learn 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.120 every Week one. Oh my god, we had it so 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.559 wrong about this team, but these all count. Still A 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:32.600 Todd is still bragging about, apparently as half game win 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.079 over me last year, which apparently is under protest. 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.880 First of all, fifty three games is a gigantic sample size. 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:41.520 It's almost like thousands of games, thirty twenty two one. 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:43.240 It's unbelievable, not quite, but. 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.440 You know, in order to tell whether someone's actually a winner, 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:49.560 and this is like just fooled by randomness type of things, 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.880 you really need like five thousand trials, right, It is 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.240 remarkable how like like Don Schwstner wrote a book Blackjack Attack, 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.800 and he like shows players ABC and D and they 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:00.600 play for like three months in their like one hundred 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:04.080 thousand hands they played and player as getting burnt, cared, crunched, 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:07.000 and player Sea's kicking butt and he's like, it explains 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:09.440 why player's struggling so much, to the mistakes he's making them, 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:11.600 player seeing why he's doing so well, and he says, 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:12.320 I'm just lying. 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:16.400 They both played perfectly play Arry got unlucky. It really 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:18.679 is true though, and even even someonely yourself he won 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:20.880 back to back. But we've had others like James Salinas 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:25.679 Las Vegas, Chris who does well in multiple contests. Two 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:28.200 years is not enough, not even close to the number 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.320 you decided, right, So it's someone's good. Someone is gonna 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.680 run good in these contests. Hopefully it's you listening right now. 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:39.319 But boy, it's just going to be you know, the 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:42.920 normal grind of millions or of the Westgate contest five 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:45.400 picks a week and you're a contest that way, survivor 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:48.080 is in play as well. Those are so much fun 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:50.200 as we do this and try to make money on 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.680 actual bets. So let's start with our our actual best 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.800 bets of the week. Will rotate these. Steve will start 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:58.480 with you, what's your favorite side? Are total? 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:00.960 You know, let's go with the total. And this is 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:03.320 more of a gut field than anything else. That Eagles 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:06.760 at Patriots. We're gonna go under forty five. I don't 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:08.640 want to get in trouble with the accountants. Todd, you're 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.120 the numbers guy. That's that's readily available, right. 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:13.520 That was already one of my picks. 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:19.360 Yeah, shocker, I share. I want to disclose. I share 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:20.640 my plays with Todd. 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.120 Yeah, you know before I guess it's not I don't know, Stevie, 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:25.280 I guess it's not written down right here before you 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:26.160 said anything thing. 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:30.160 I sent it to you and chewing the court stenographer 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.360 of the Megapod also court thief of the. 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:34.480 This is guy like in the movie Oh God, like 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:36.960 like that. The stenographer is like nothing George Burne said, 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:38.720 is like it is recorded here. 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:41.200 He said he couldn't be hurt. He couldn't be recorded. 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:43.120 I just think that. 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:46.800 I'll forget to send my in game college basketball. 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.480 That's two for those counting on interruptions. 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:52.920 So so, I just think Patriots aren't going to score 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.680 much against the Eagles. The Eagles had the super Bowl hangover. 0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:00.600 They didn't play their starters in preseason, which depressed scoring 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.439 for the offense. There was a tweet by Cleve Ta 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:08.000 that was outstanding about teams that don't play their their 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:12.600 starting quarterback. Yeah, the offenses like struggle there in terms 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.439 of I think like five points less than what their 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:15.360 team total is. 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:17.280 So if the Eagles are going to score lesson they're 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:17.760 supposed to do. 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.280 And I don't think the Patriots are going to score 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:20.920 a lot, and we've got a toll that's still above 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.720 average at forty five. This has a twenty three to 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:25.480 twenty scrum look to it. 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:27.079 I'll go under the forty five, all right. 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:33.840 Under forty five on the Patriots and the Eagles, William Wilson, Hillson, everybody. 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:37.320 The reason I asked Fez for his first pick, I 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.800 was very certain he was going to take this wht. 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:43.559 I'm happy he didn't give me Miami plus three. If 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:45.520 you're gonna tell me, just hey, out of the thirty 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.319 two teams, pick two teams that are as even as 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.680 it gets. I would pick offensive Charger. I think they're 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:55.080 just dead even teams. Chargers have a very slight uh 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:59.040 snim to none home field advantage, travel you don't worry 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:01.040 about this time of the year. So I just don't 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:02.600 know how you get to three with this number. There's 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:04.199 starting to be some three and a half minus one 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:06.440 twenty to me again, dead even teams. 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.000 You're gonna give me the three, I'll take it. 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.319 This open Chargers pick at Chargers pick. Look, I think 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:13.040 I have some Chargers pick in my account. I lean 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.120 to that side, but three points in terms of the adjustment, 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.199 I don't understand. I know Miami's got some injuries and 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.520 Ramsey and the offensive lineman, but I will take the 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.000 points here and let me let me put fes to 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.240 work here just quickly, Fez, if you can get three 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.040 and a half minus one twenty, what is a profit? 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.080 Will middle the other the f side on the Chargers 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:30.640 money line, I'm curious what your thoughts are on that. 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.760 All right, So the line is currently a three, So 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:35.760 if you can get three and a half, you're gonna 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.280 cast fifty five percent because literally, if three is the 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:40.480 correct line, which I'm gonna do for this middling, it's 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:42.520 gonna you're gonna go forty five to ten and forty 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:44.560 five if you lay three or take three. So if 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:46.280 you take three and a half, you win with that 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.160 if it lands on three, so you're gonna win fifty 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:49.880 five percent of the time. If you're playing plus three 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:51.560 and a half LA dollar twenty, that's a break even 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.040 bet on thet. So now we need a positive ev 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:57.200 on the money line in order to turn a profit. 0:14:57.240 --> 0:14:58.800 I think at no big money line on a three 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.280 point favorite is minus one forty seven plus one forty 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.600 seven minus one forty five. Well, from off the top 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.960 of my head would be penny with the plus three 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:09.320 minus one twenty, you're freeing Hamburgers. 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.080 It's like a point five percent edge on the middle. 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:13.480 That's what you wanted, will. 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:16.000 Yeah, I was just curious because I'm seeing, like again, 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:17.800 there's some three and a half minus twenty popping up, 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.120 and there's some minus one sixty charges on the money line. 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.240 That's not quite close enough, but I mean there's there 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:23.880 comes a point here where if you can just shop 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:25.040 around and be good at chopping. 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:26.920 It's intriguing to. 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:28.200 Just play the middle because to me, this has like 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.040 twenty seven to twenty four charges written all over. 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:32.320 The problem with the minus one sixty is that you 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.880 can play the minus three minus one ten even and 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.760 that's and that's superior bet. So so trying to get 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:39.960 at the money line is going to be an inferior bet. 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.720 And by the way, laying three and taking three and 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:45.040 a half is approximately break even. But you know you're 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:46.360 paying extra big on the three and a half, so 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:47.240 that won't that won't fly. 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:49.880 So you took the dolphins there will plus three? Is 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:50.360 that the bet? 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:52.240 Dolph Dolphins plus three. 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.600 Dolphins plus three, all right, Todd Todd is the official 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:56.480 lines keeper as well. What do you got, Todd? 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:59.640 What's your first By the way, that's an interesting conversation, 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:01.520 you guys just having. Now, let's say there was nine 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:03.200 minutes left in the game and you could get the 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:05.880 three and a half versus a three and the game 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.480 was like right near those numbers or the minus one 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.120 sixty at that point, would you have would it be 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:15.040 more worthwhile because there's so many less outcomes that could happen, 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.040 and landing you know where it you know, in the middle, 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.760 there is obviously a lot more likely Steve, your thoughts. 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.400 It all depends, but in general, yes, So, I mean, 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:27.760 if the game's tied, honor off, the three is probably 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.360 gonna be worth sixty five cents at least, if not more. 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:33.600 If if the Chargers are head by two, it's pretty worthless. Well, 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:37.080 it's not worthless, but it depends. But yes, direction with 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:38.120 your spot on right. 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.840 Okay, that was just a question. Okay, my first pick 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.600 was also, Even though Steve's going to say that I 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:46.280 stole it from I didn't. I just I had this 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:47.920 written down. I didn't know you even gave it to 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:50.160 me in June. But the point is is I'll take 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.760 the Patriots. Not for the reasons that he stated about, 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.560 you know, teams that don't play the first string and 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:59.160 all that nonsense, but great job, cleeve Ta. I'm gonna 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.200 take it just base done. One thing I think the 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.400 Patriots know, and Bill Belichick seems to be a decent coach. 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:08.000 They cannot score with the Philadelphia Eagles. There is no 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:10.720 chance in hell that if this game was some kind 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:14.439 of shootout. Bill Belichick knows he can stay close. He 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.119 knows he can, he knows he has to slow this 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:20.280 game down to an absolute crawl and make it a scrum. 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.840 And that's why I like the under forty five too. 0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:25.080 I just think there's there. You know, Bill Belichick at 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.320 home is going to do everything in his power to 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:30.120 make this a scrum, low scoring game. And that's why 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:31.800 I'll take the under forty five as well for my 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:32.320 first pick. 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.399 All right, all right, I am going into that game 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.960 and I am countering what my friend doctor Bob has. 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.320 Doctor Bob's one NFL play that he has, he's on 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:46.359 the Patriots. I'm going opo ooh, I'm taking the Eagles 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:51.879 and I'm laying before. I don't quite get it. I 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:56.280 really don't. I have a feeling that by the second quarter, 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:00.680 everyone in their heads will say to themselves, oh my god, 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:03.480 this team's the fucking greatest team in the whole league. 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:06.640 And what have we been talking ourselves out of offseason? Now? 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.520 I could be terribly wrong. I could be terribly wrong, 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.560 and apparently the analytics community to know something that I 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.280 don't on the Patriots. But I will take this all 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.840 day long. And one of the things, certainly, the coordinators 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:22.120 are a highlight here where the Eagles have lost both 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.720 of theirs, and in the Patriots case, they've gotten rid 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:28.200 of the facacto way that they did it last year. 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:32.800 So I concede that. But I'm gonna lay the points 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.439 here week one where I don't want to overthink it 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.879 too much. I'm gonna be okay losing this, but I 0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:41.520 certainly if the Eagles roll them, I don't want to 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:43.760 not be a part of that. So I'm taking the Eagles. 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.760 I am laying the points, just trying not to outthink 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:50.200 myself here, just gonna make it simple. Eagles. Mine is 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:51.879 the points. My verse. Do we snake this or do 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.000 we keep going around. Let's keep going wrong. 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.320 You know we do that, we do the round raw 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:58.600 and you go second? Do you go first? Oh? 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.399 I do go second. Okay, I'm gonna go with the 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:05.200 Dallas Cowboys on this is awful that I'm doing road 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.600 favorites here. It's not the way to riches. But again, 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:10.240 week one, I'm not gonna help think myself here Sunday 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:14.560 night taking the Cowboys. What is that three three consensus? 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.200 I'd see it leaking, but I would say there's a 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:18.600 lot of threes left. Steve, what do you think? 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:20.040 Yeah, I think there's a lot of threes. 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:22.840 It's three point two five. You could go, you could 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:24.480 take you three or take three and a half, which 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:25.000 is great game. 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:27.320 We'll give you the minus three. 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:30.439 Yeah, then I'm laying the three. My opinion on the Giants, 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.119 My one of my big season long bets is the 0:19:33.119 --> 0:19:38.200 Giants alternate season win total under. I know Brian Dable 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:40.160 got the Coach of the Year, I think I think 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.639 it was a fagazy coach of the year where he 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:47.840 got the credit for a lot of really timely, high 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.600 leverage performance by the Giants, both offensively and defensively, and 0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:55.359 especially when you look at third and fourth downs versus 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:59.280 first and second downs. They sustained that for a long time. 0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:00.760 And there might be some people out there are like, oh, 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:02.679 that's all coaching. I mean, they just step it up 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:05.320 with it. That's not how this works. And I think 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:06.600 they're a team by the way they were eight and 0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:09.080 four and one score games. I think this is the 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.600 year where it where it changes dramatically for them, and 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.080 I think it starts right here on Sunday Night football. 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:17.480 I think they get beat at home by the Cowboys. 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:23.679 I'll lay the three unsustainable unsustainable. That's what I'm doing, 0:20:25.560 --> 0:20:26.399 all right, Steve. 0:20:27.600 --> 0:20:29.480 If somebody takes a pick, is that off the board? 0:20:29.520 --> 0:20:29.679 Is that? 0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:33.280 No? No, no, no, no no. Todd makes a living. Todd 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:35.160 makes a living duplicating everybody. 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:41.280 That's hysterical is then show you all? And I do 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:44.080 not have many of other people's picks. In fact, many 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:44.560 people have. 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:47.520 I really Is that right? Well, maybe you shouldn't tell 0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:50.040 stories and make other people seem to be dumb in 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:52.760 your stories when they're trying to help you out. All right, Todd, 0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:53.320 what's your pick? 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:58.240 My second pick is going to be Look, obviously these 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:01.679 numbers have been hammered into submit over many months by 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:05.200 people like Fezik and all that stuff's in there. Now 0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:09.400 you have to find some gut, you know, feel kind 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:11.760 of thing where you can say, look, maybe the experts 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.879 are wrong, similar to what Gilly just said, where he 0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:19.160 thought that, you know, maybe there's just too much you know, talking. 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:21.960 I think, by the way, taking the road favorite Gilly 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.119 there when everybody else is on the other side is 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:26.119 probably a good idea at this point when all the 0:21:26.119 --> 0:21:28.120 smarty pants can go into group think. 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:31.720 So anyway, fans, yeah, all. 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:33.639 The smarty Pants like to go into group thing. But 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:35.399 so what I'm going to do is here, I'm just 0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:38.159 going to do something based on feel, and that is 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.480 I'd like to take the Chicago Bears. I believe they're 0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:46.600 laying one point. I actually have them plus nine in 0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:49.520 my pocket from when they first came out, you know, 0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:52.040 all those I'm being like one of those touts on 0:21:52.280 --> 0:21:54.440 Twitter where there's oh I got that line when it 0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:56.920 first came out at plus nine and now they're down 0:21:56.960 --> 0:21:59.240 the minus one. So I've got ten points of value there. 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:03.919 But anyway, yes, I'll take the Bears minus one point. 0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:08.200 The reason being is the Bears have been tortured by 0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:11.080 mister Aaron Rodgers for many, many years. I believe that 0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:14.960 that the receivers on the Packers were not very good 0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:18.600 last year, and Rogers was really strong with him. So 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.080 now I get the former Utah State quarterback, which I 0:22:22.280 --> 0:22:24.400 never liked at Utahs data. I know they all love, 0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:27.280 Oh Jordan Love. He's the greatest things in sliced bread. 0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:31.560 I never liked them in college. I don't believe in him. 0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:34.280 Maybe he'll turn, you know, say that I'm totally wrong, 0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:37.359 But remember I was right about Ryan's Fitzpatrick as you 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:39.200 were as well Gilly when he came in and covered 0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:41.399 all those games for an zero to seven Miami team. 0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:46.879 Jordan Love is not the answer in Green Bay. So 0:22:47.000 --> 0:22:49.920 now the Bears get an opportunity to spank the Packers 0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:53.080 after they've been spanked year after year after year. They're 0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:55.640 at home. They've got a guy who can go back 0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:57.760 to pass from the from his own thirty and he's 0:22:57.840 --> 0:23:01.520 gone seventy yards touchdown. I want the Bears. I want 0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:04.800 minus one. I don't believe Jordan Loves is ready for 0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:10.840 road divisional football in the National Football League. 0:23:11.160 --> 0:23:11.800 Not Bears. 0:23:13.040 --> 0:23:15.520 Okay, will number two. 0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:20.280 Usually the worst team is not as bad as we think. 0:23:20.440 --> 0:23:22.920 I think the Cardinals break that rule. I will go Washington. 0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:27.160 I'll lay the seven renewed optimism with that home field. 0:23:27.240 --> 0:23:29.240 You might get a little bit of a home field 0:23:29.320 --> 0:23:34.040 that's been a sort of a you know, disinterested crowd 0:23:34.040 --> 0:23:36.800 in recent years. Now with Snyder gone a little more enthusiasm. 0:23:37.200 --> 0:23:40.200 I think this Arizona team is just not a professional team. 0:23:40.480 --> 0:23:41.800 They're bad on both sides of the ball. 0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:44.359 Whoever starts at quarterback, whether it's Dobbs or Claytonton, is 0:23:44.359 --> 0:23:47.240 probably gonna get hurt behind that offensive line. I'll lay 0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:49.439 it with Washington. Usually don't like laying a touchdown, especially 0:23:49.440 --> 0:23:49.920 in Week one. 0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:50.600 I'll break the. 0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:52.679 Rules here la with the Commanders. 0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:55.399 If ever there was a must win situation, it's the 0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:58.280 Commodes going up against the Cardinals. And let me just 0:23:58.280 --> 0:24:01.120 say this, also because it's September, become normalized to it, 0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:05.199 but the single greatest story of the offseason Daniel Snyder 0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:07.880 no longer the owner of this team. I cannot express 0:24:07.960 --> 0:24:09.679 you how much this means to so many of us, 0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:13.520 ding dong, which is dead absolutely. In fact, I'll tell 0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:16.720 you how much it is. I beat Todd WISHNEVN tennis. 0:24:16.760 --> 0:24:19.320 This is a true story. He had beaten me roughly 0:24:19.359 --> 0:24:21.879 three hundred and thirty four times in a row. I 0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:24.640 beat him in tennis, and I acted like I won Wimbledon. 0:24:25.040 --> 0:24:27.800 I was just a washing glory. And we go to 0:24:27.880 --> 0:24:30.320 Chipotle and the news that Daniel Snyder was no longer 0:24:30.359 --> 0:24:32.919 gonna be the owner of the Skins comes down and 0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:36.800 I completely for it. Was like when Farah Fawcett died 0:24:37.080 --> 0:24:41.480 and then Michael Jackson had the audacity diet. She died, 0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:45.399 and then Michael Jackson died right after it, and no 0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:48.399 one cared about Farah Fawcett diet anymore. That's how I felt. 0:24:48.520 --> 0:24:52.119 I want to know what the two teamer gil Anti correlated, 0:24:52.119 --> 0:24:56.040 parlay gil beating Todd and then Todd beating Ben Wilson. 0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:58.160 Paid it's got to be on the straps. You didn't 0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:00.000 beat Todd, You didn't beat Ben Wilson, did you? 0:25:00.520 --> 0:25:04.080 Yeah? I beat him, Yeah, we played. Yeah, I beat 0:25:04.119 --> 0:25:05.760 him in a set last year. And when I was 0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:06.359 real thin. 0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:10.560 Oh okay, wow, he limped off with an injury right after. 0:25:11.440 --> 0:25:12.240 Uh No, but. 0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:14.520 It was it was very very competitive when I was thin. 0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:17.760 It was very very competitive to me. He was still 0:25:17.760 --> 0:25:18.200 better than me. 0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:21.080 Yeah, Ben versus Todd at two fifteen is like me 0:25:21.200 --> 0:25:22.439 versus Todd at three hundred. 0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:25.280 I mean I would have laid ninety nine. 0:25:25.320 --> 0:25:27.080 I would have laid eighty to make a dollar, just 0:25:27.080 --> 0:25:29.560 like Purdue with But thanks Ben Wilson. Another Purdue game 0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:29.800 for me. 0:25:30.119 --> 0:25:33.960 Yeah, what's by the way, Billy did get that the 0:25:34.160 --> 0:25:36.960 word book. Hilly got the win after three hundred and 0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:40.840 forty consecutive losses. But since then he's oh and eleven. 0:25:41.040 --> 0:25:42.480 Lewis humiliating loss. 0:25:42.560 --> 0:25:43.520 No, no, no, let me just say this. 0:25:43.600 --> 0:25:45.720 We then we win, even though he's St. Louis. 0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:46.640 We went to Saint in. 0:25:46.600 --> 0:25:49.720 Saint Louis, Jeff Jeff Pearl's wedding, he was very close 0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:51.440 again to get in his second wish. 0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:55.280 Yeah, but I believe, which is nineteen. He's going to 0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:57.320 stop talking at some point, which is why I told 0:25:57.400 --> 0:25:59.960 Todd that it wasn't the victory that gave me coffie. 0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:02.320 It was in Saint Louis where I stared into his 0:26:02.400 --> 0:26:04.399 eyes and I knew it was like Ali after the 0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:07.600 thrill in Manila, he beat Frasier, but he knew if 0:26:07.600 --> 0:26:09.320 you look into his eyes, he knew it was over 0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:13.879 that's wish nip ever, the same after ever, the same man. Yeah, yeah, Stevie, 0:26:13.880 --> 0:26:14.520 you're number two. 0:26:14.720 --> 0:26:15.800 I'm number two. 0:26:15.840 --> 0:26:18.159 I'm going to go or two end your three, all right, 0:26:18.200 --> 0:26:21.440 I'm gonna go oppo with Todd. I'm gonna take the 0:26:21.480 --> 0:26:25.240 Green Bay Packers plus one. Uh, you know, the pack 0:26:25.359 --> 0:26:27.720 you go. You know it's interesting Todd keeps talking about 0:26:27.720 --> 0:26:29.879 a home field advantage, and he's right. You know, the 0:26:29.920 --> 0:26:32.120 Packers are going to have one in Chicago. Anyone who's 0:26:32.119 --> 0:26:35.400 attended this game. I know the population is a lot 0:26:35.440 --> 0:26:37.720 bigger in Chicago that is in Green Bay. But I 0:26:37.760 --> 0:26:40.199 think it's easier for the Packers fans to get like 0:26:40.320 --> 0:26:43.879 seats in Chicago than it is in Green Bay. And 0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:47.760 if you just look at recent history for whatever reason, 0:26:48.160 --> 0:26:51.639 let's see, the Bears lost ten to three in twenty nineteen. Okay, 0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.320 COVID year they got drilled by nineteen. No fans there, 0:26:54.359 --> 0:26:56.240 but no Green Bay fans, so maybe that should have 0:26:56.240 --> 0:26:59.560 helped the Bears. Bears lost twenty twenty one twenty four 0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:02.280 to fourteen. They lost last year twenty eight to nineteen. 0:27:02.480 --> 0:27:05.479 The Bears are not owned by Aaron Rodgers. They are 0:27:05.480 --> 0:27:08.480 owned by the Green Bay Packers, and if Todd had 0:27:08.560 --> 0:27:11.040 checked his injury reports, he would have seen that the 0:27:11.040 --> 0:27:14.600 Bears have had cluster injuries throughout the preseason where not one, 0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:17.119 not two, not three, but four of their offensive linemen 0:27:17.160 --> 0:27:20.160 have been juggled back and forth, all with nagging injuries 0:27:20.400 --> 0:27:22.359 and the like. And that's why money's been coming on 0:27:22.400 --> 0:27:25.480 Green Bay. Bold prediction, Todd, don't lay one on the Bears. 0:27:25.480 --> 0:27:27.320 You can take points with the Bears right before they 0:27:27.400 --> 0:27:29.240 kick off, It's still not gonna help you because the 0:27:29.240 --> 0:27:31.520 Packers are going to kick their ass green Bay Plus. 0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:34.000 I have the Bears plus nine, Steve, you weren't listening. 0:27:34.040 --> 0:27:35.880 I have the Bears plus nine in the bucket. 0:27:36.359 --> 0:27:37.640 I don't know if I said this on this show. 0:27:37.640 --> 0:27:40.040 Maybe I did in the preview with the NFL preview 0:27:40.040 --> 0:27:42.840 with Matt and Kelly from last week, but I've said 0:27:42.840 --> 0:27:45.080 it a million times on a numbers game. Why are 0:27:45.080 --> 0:27:47.919 you so convinced Jordan Love's gonna suck, Todd? He's been 0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:50.159 under the same coordinator, in the same coach for like 0:27:50.240 --> 0:27:54.600 three years under tutelage. He may be good. You don't know. 0:27:54.800 --> 0:27:57.800 Maybe does he need to be good? Does he needs 0:27:57.840 --> 0:27:58.480 to be capable? 0:27:58.520 --> 0:28:00.440 Just needs to be capable. Just don't turn the all over. 0:28:01.320 --> 0:28:02.240 He could be very good. 0:28:02.240 --> 0:28:04.560 We last time, last time we were off Oh it 0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:07.159 was thirty two thirty one Texans on fourth and twenty. 0:28:07.240 --> 0:28:07.919 When they were. 0:28:08.240 --> 0:28:11.760 Thinking, that's that's a high yeah, a high probability of 0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:13.600 success fourth and twenty with that offense. 0:28:13.680 --> 0:28:15.320 So you were you had the right side there? 0:28:15.600 --> 0:28:16.480 What's your number three? 0:28:16.600 --> 0:28:17.040 Number three? 0:28:17.119 --> 0:28:19.120 I'm going to go and Todd's going to break into 0:28:19.200 --> 0:28:21.879 cheering the Pittsburgh Steelers catching two? 0:28:21.960 --> 0:28:23.400 What What the heck am I doing? 0:28:23.520 --> 0:28:26.320 I had all summer to play Pittsburgh plus three and 0:28:26.359 --> 0:28:28.119 now am I trying to donk off my money? 0:28:28.119 --> 0:28:31.080 Taken two and a bad number? No, because I. 0:28:31.080 --> 0:28:32.480 Think half, Stevie, you deserve it. 0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:35.560 Could have half, all right, I'll take it. I tell 0:28:35.560 --> 0:28:36.920 you what, Grab the two and a half now because 0:28:36.920 --> 0:28:42.320 it won't be there come Sunday. What's changed during the summer? Well, Bosa, 0:28:42.400 --> 0:28:44.320 he's kind of important. Is he going to play? Just 0:28:44.440 --> 0:28:46.760 you know they they're about to sign him again, still 0:28:46.760 --> 0:28:47.400 haven't signed him? 0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:48.280 Is he going to be ready? 0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:51.680 He's worth a point on defense and non quarterbacks are 0:28:51.800 --> 0:28:54.480 rarely worth a point, but he truly is their best 0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:58.040 defender and Kittles banged up, you know, so one of 0:28:58.080 --> 0:29:00.480 the most important offensive guys. He's not as import because 0:29:00.480 --> 0:29:02.880 they've got so many different weapons, you know, with Debo 0:29:03.200 --> 0:29:04.360 and with Semac and the like. 0:29:04.400 --> 0:29:06.320 But I mean he's still important to the line. 0:29:06.800 --> 0:29:09.920 And you look at no team has looked better in 0:29:09.960 --> 0:29:13.000 pre season than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Clicking in all cylinders. 0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:15.160 They're not just beaten up on second stringers either, like 0:29:15.200 --> 0:29:18.920 in the Buffalo game. Yeah, blankets fourteen to nothing. Steelers 0:29:18.920 --> 0:29:22.920 have just drilled three straight teams. I think it should 0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:25.200 be pick them. San France starts slow last year when 0:29:25.200 --> 0:29:27.600 they lost in the Monsoon to the Bears, one of 0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:30.600 three wins for the Bears, so you give me the points. 0:29:30.680 --> 0:29:33.160 I'm not sure that San France should even be favored. 0:29:33.240 --> 0:29:34.320 Steelers plus two. 0:29:34.680 --> 0:29:36.240 I like it. William. 0:29:36.640 --> 0:29:39.120 My first question is if you're gonna take the Stillers 0:29:39.200 --> 0:29:42.280 don at Akroscher Stadium. Dean's got a parking pass into 0:29:42.280 --> 0:29:45.040 the casino, because there's no way in hell you're gonna 0:29:45.200 --> 0:29:47.960 be able to park within fourteen miles of that stadium 0:29:48.000 --> 0:29:51.000 down there in Week one with Canny Pickett. So if 0:29:51.040 --> 0:29:53.640 Yen's better not check your email right now you don 0:29:53.680 --> 0:29:56.120 at a Rivers casino and find out whether you got 0:29:56.120 --> 0:29:58.240 a card. That'll a lie YenS to park in a 0:29:58.320 --> 0:30:00.960 normal fashion. Otherwise, I don't know how you're getting to 0:30:01.000 --> 0:30:01.360 the game. 0:30:01.440 --> 0:30:04.200 If you're seven stars, you can park right at the 0:30:04.240 --> 0:30:07.360 seven Stars. Ballet Todd down Air, Caesars. 0:30:07.400 --> 0:30:08.480 The best is down Air. 0:30:08.680 --> 0:30:11.080 There's no doubt when we're in Perman he's we're not 0:30:11.120 --> 0:30:14.840 thinking about Caesar's palless and that that's some Vegas nonsense. 0:30:16.240 --> 0:30:19.600 Will what do you get from a competitive standpoint, I 0:30:19.600 --> 0:30:21.760 would like to take Dallas minus the three. I feel 0:30:21.800 --> 0:30:23.720 like from a content standpoint it's a little boring because 0:30:23.720 --> 0:30:25.520 I had the same picks and handicaps. So I will 0:30:25.520 --> 0:30:28.680 go in a different direction here. I'll take Cleveland plus 0:30:28.720 --> 0:30:31.520 two and a half. If you look at Cincy, it's interesting. 0:30:31.520 --> 0:30:33.960 There's a perception that they're this dominant team because you 0:30:33.960 --> 0:30:35.160 went to a Super Bowl a couple of years ago, 0:30:35.160 --> 0:30:37.160 a play away from going to Super Bowl last year. Now, 0:30:37.240 --> 0:30:39.040 yards per play is in everything, but yards per play 0:30:39.080 --> 0:30:41.240 on offense five point four, yards per play a lout 0:30:41.320 --> 0:30:43.480 on defense five point four, both middle of the pack. 0:30:43.960 --> 0:30:46.880 Cleveland gets Watson without the rust. They get a decentl 0:30:46.880 --> 0:30:49.360 I think it is going to be improved a lot 0:30:49.360 --> 0:30:52.000 with Schwartz, who's one of the few defensive coordinators that matters. 0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:55.040 Cleveland destroyed them on Halloween last night in Cleveland. That 0:30:55.120 --> 0:30:58.400 was with what prostic quarterback Burrows had no training camp. 0:30:58.920 --> 0:31:00.960 Who knows how healthy it is. I love the three, 0:31:01.080 --> 0:31:03.200 but at two and a half year, I will take 0:31:03.200 --> 0:31:05.400 Cleveland plus the points that. 0:31:06.600 --> 0:31:11.080 I'm gonna go to the New York Giants football game 0:31:11.160 --> 0:31:14.760 and I am gonna go under the forty seven in 0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:18.520 that ball game. The games last year were not high 0:31:18.600 --> 0:31:20.200 scoring games. The final score in one of them was 0:31:20.240 --> 0:31:22.600 twenty eight to twenty. One of them was with a 0:31:22.640 --> 0:31:25.320 total backdoor touchdown after the Cowboys scored with like two 0:31:25.400 --> 0:31:28.200 minutes to go in a ridiculous game that gives should 0:31:28.280 --> 0:31:29.720 never run would. 0:31:29.560 --> 0:31:32.600 You say on Thanksgiving? I remember it all too well. 0:31:32.600 --> 0:31:34.320 That was Yeah, what effect that game should have? 0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:38.240 Totals? That game should have never gone over. The first 0:31:38.280 --> 0:31:41.440 game I believe was twenty three sixteenth. Look the Dallas 0:31:41.480 --> 0:31:43.520 Cowboys and the reason they were good last year. The 0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:46.800 defense was very good. It wasn't about that. It was 0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:49.560 about those crazy rushers coming off the edge. And just 0:31:49.640 --> 0:31:52.840 dominating people from a defensive from the defensive side of 0:31:52.840 --> 0:31:54.480 the football, and I think they're going to be smart 0:31:54.560 --> 0:31:56.760 enough to realize we've got to play defense. It's not 0:31:56.960 --> 0:32:00.400 like the New York Giants have a strong offense. Tame 0:32:00.760 --> 0:32:03.800 ha'f the time. It's Danny running, going back to pass 0:32:03.840 --> 0:32:06.160 and somehow he gets away and scrambles for a first down. 0:32:06.640 --> 0:32:09.880 This is not a great I think Saquon Barkley had 0:32:09.960 --> 0:32:12.400 thirty nine yards rushing in one of the games. It's 0:32:12.440 --> 0:32:14.440 not like the Giants are going to move to the football 0:32:14.480 --> 0:32:17.680 in Dallas. Dallas is going to play a grinding style. 0:32:17.800 --> 0:32:20.240 Forty seven is a high number in a National Football 0:32:20.280 --> 0:32:22.960 League game. Both games should have gone under last year. 0:32:23.640 --> 0:32:25.800 Give me that under forty seven in that Dallas game, 0:32:25.800 --> 0:32:27.920 and come on, under forty seven should be reserved for 0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:31.520 the for the crazy games, you know, Charger games, Miami games, 0:32:31.720 --> 0:32:34.600 Dallas against a Giants in a divisional game, this is 0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:37.160 going to be smack me in the mouth football under 0:32:37.200 --> 0:32:38.000 forty seven. 0:32:38.240 --> 0:32:40.080 You know, this is the first time I think I've 0:32:40.080 --> 0:32:42.880 ever heard somebody like cite a twenty eight to twenty 0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:45.560 prior from the year before as evidence that the game 0:32:45.640 --> 0:32:47.000 is going to go under forty seven. 0:32:47.160 --> 0:32:49.959 Kudos Tode the back there was a touchdown with two 0:32:50.080 --> 0:32:53.240 minutes to go, and then at backdoor touchdown, Stevie, thank 0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:56.080 you very much. You have to read inside the box score. Well, 0:32:56.080 --> 0:32:59.160 it's not just about the final score, it's how they 0:32:59.240 --> 0:32:59.640 get to that. 0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:01.760 Thank you that well that the audience wants to know. 0:33:01.800 --> 0:33:04.200 You need to explain that to them. He just cited 0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:05.200 the final score. 0:33:06.720 --> 0:33:11.440 I will here that that back door touchdown was enhanced 0:33:11.440 --> 0:33:14.080 because of I think it was a bogus roughing the 0:33:14.080 --> 0:33:14.680 passer call. 0:33:15.240 --> 0:33:17.840 Giants never would have scored too, So that was Todd's wright. 0:33:18.360 --> 0:33:21.880 Excellent Todd, I forgot about bogus roughing the passer penalties. 0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:26.080 Oh terrible, tackling the defense fifty. 0:33:27.040 --> 0:33:29.360 If Stevie had the over luck box, Stevie would have 0:33:29.360 --> 0:33:31.000 won that one. He probably did have the over in 0:33:31.040 --> 0:33:32.240 that game with some back door. 0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:33.960 Do you think you and I are lucky? You should 0:33:33.960 --> 0:33:34.520 see what I do. 0:33:34.480 --> 0:33:37.760 With crack Man. But by the way, let me just 0:33:37.800 --> 0:33:43.600 praise Todd Wishneff for his for his amazing memory and 0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:45.959 recall on some of these things. So last last night 0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:47.760 we were betting a few things. Obviously we all had 0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:50.360 like different variations of the under in that Clemson game, 0:33:50.400 --> 0:33:53.280 which we luck boxed our way to victory. But one 0:33:53.360 --> 0:33:56.360 of the plays in that game was this dead ball 0:33:56.440 --> 0:34:00.000 penalty called on Duke on a fourth down for Clemson 0:34:00.440 --> 0:34:03.719 where club Nick slid right before the sticks and then 0:34:03.760 --> 0:34:07.320 he was just absolutely drilled. But it was ruled because 0:34:07.400 --> 0:34:08.960 the slide had already started that it was a dead 0:34:09.000 --> 0:34:10.719 ball foul and because it was fourth down and he 0:34:10.800 --> 0:34:13.000 was short that the ball then went to Duke. And 0:34:13.040 --> 0:34:15.000 I immediately because I get it, that's the rule, and 0:34:15.040 --> 0:34:17.360 I know people are outraged about it, but that's exactly 0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:19.799 how you call that. And I was like, wow, is 0:34:19.800 --> 0:34:21.840 there a precedent for this? I can't think of any 0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:24.960 time this was ever called this way. And Todd immediately 0:34:25.000 --> 0:34:27.040 and I talked about it on a Numbers game this morning, 0:34:27.160 --> 0:34:29.480 immediately called him. He goes, yeah, there was an Eric 0:34:29.600 --> 0:34:32.360 Weddle play in that playoff game. And I was like, 0:34:32.400 --> 0:34:34.080 oh my god, how do you remember that? And it 0:34:34.120 --> 0:34:37.200 sure was Tampa Bay the Rams. The year that the 0:34:37.280 --> 0:34:39.040 Rams won the Super Bowl. They were up two touchdowns. 0:34:39.040 --> 0:34:41.680 Tampa Bay was driving that pass to Evans from Brady 0:34:42.080 --> 0:34:45.680 and remember Evans batted it down, and because it hit 0:34:45.800 --> 0:34:49.520 the ground the ball before Weddell drilled him on a 0:34:49.520 --> 0:34:52.719 fourth down, he got the penalty, but the ball went 0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:56.919 to the Rams. If Evans had tipped the ball up 0:34:57.480 --> 0:34:59.880 and then Weddle had drilled him, the Bucks would have 0:35:00.040 --> 0:35:02.680 maintained possession. So it's it was very consistent. 0:35:02.760 --> 0:35:04.560 But I just you know, they say if you watch 0:35:04.600 --> 0:35:07.160 a football game or a baseball game closely enough. My 0:35:07.200 --> 0:35:09.680 father told me this, Yeah, you will see something that 0:35:09.760 --> 0:35:12.759 you had never seen your entire life. Dead And my 0:35:12.840 --> 0:35:15.600 dad said this, So example, one time in Cleveland, there's 0:35:15.600 --> 0:35:18.160 a high fly ball to deep left and it bounced 0:35:18.200 --> 0:35:20.080 over the Green Monster. So it's a ground rule double 0:35:20.160 --> 0:35:22.840 over a twenty one foot high fence because. 0:35:22.760 --> 0:35:26.040 It had just enough. Really, yes, do you think it 0:35:26.080 --> 0:35:27.440 would be impossible? Yeah? 0:35:27.480 --> 0:35:29.480 And I saw like a throw to the plate and 0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:32.319 hit the rosen bag on the pitching mound, you know. 0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:34.160 So just things like if you watch it, Craig like, 0:35:34.200 --> 0:35:35.640 I've never seen that before. 0:35:35.800 --> 0:35:36.000 Yeah. 0:35:36.040 --> 0:35:37.680 And when we were I was at the game with 0:35:37.719 --> 0:35:41.160 my father, Wendell Statt was like observing and there's two 0:35:41.160 --> 0:35:43.640 guys in the in the on deck circle and one 0:35:43.640 --> 0:35:46.960 of the crowd one of the fans said, hey, Wendell. 0:35:46.680 --> 0:35:48.160 Statt, they're not allowed to do that. 0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:49.880 They got two guys in the on deck circle and 0:35:49.920 --> 0:35:51.440 he walked over and he said, you got to go 0:35:51.480 --> 0:35:52.120 to the dugout. 0:35:52.200 --> 0:35:52.520 Wow. 0:35:52.800 --> 0:35:55.080 So if you look closely enough, you'll see you'll see 0:35:55.080 --> 0:35:56.160 something never happened. 0:35:55.840 --> 0:35:57.920 Before the Do you remember the Giants game? I saw 0:35:57.960 --> 0:36:00.400 this yesterday where the one where but where Jake Peev 0:36:00.600 --> 0:36:02.759 was on the mound and he wasn't paying attention, and 0:36:02.800 --> 0:36:05.200 Buster Posey didn't see that he wasn't paying attention and 0:36:05.239 --> 0:36:07.640 threw the ball back to him and Peevee just happened 0:36:07.640 --> 0:36:10.680 to have his glove here though. Yeah, that was awesome. 0:36:10.840 --> 0:36:13.600 That was awesome. It's like Chris Parley, can I just say. 0:36:13.440 --> 0:36:16.799 That that rule needs to be changed because if you're 0:36:16.840 --> 0:36:19.520 in the middle of the play, granted, the guy's knee 0:36:19.600 --> 0:36:21.840 was down in a split second later the guy blasted 0:36:21.840 --> 0:36:24.480 his head open. Same thing with the Eric Weddo play. 0:36:24.760 --> 0:36:28.120 It's part of the play. It's not a dead ballfoul 0:36:28.560 --> 0:36:31.520 dead ball means it's really a dead ball. We're running 0:36:31.560 --> 0:36:33.960 back to the huddle. When somebody smashes somebody, you know 0:36:34.239 --> 0:36:36.239 in the in the seats or something, or takes a 0:36:36.280 --> 0:36:38.880 shot at somebody. That's what a dead ball foul should be. 0:36:39.080 --> 0:36:41.479 It shouldn't be a dead ball because a guy's knee 0:36:41.520 --> 0:36:43.880 hits the ground and literally a split second later a 0:36:43.920 --> 0:36:46.239 guy blasts him in the head. That's still part of 0:36:46.280 --> 0:36:47.480 the play in my humble opinion. 0:36:49.520 --> 0:36:51.200 So after you have a pick six and the guy 0:36:51.239 --> 0:36:54.799 scores a nanosecond after he crosses the goal line, if 0:36:54.800 --> 0:36:57.719 you have someone like what like clothesline on defense the 0:36:57.760 --> 0:37:01.040 offensive guy, the touchdown doesn't count them because it's close enough. 0:37:02.080 --> 0:37:03.279 Seems inconsistent to me. 0:37:05.000 --> 0:37:07.840 That's a great question. Actually, that's a great point by Stevie. 0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:10.279 What happens if that happens now, if a guy, Yeah, 0:37:10.280 --> 0:37:11.880 if a guy gets a touchdown and a guy blast 0:37:11.960 --> 0:37:13.719 them a half a second, what that's not That's not 0:37:13.760 --> 0:37:15.320 gonna that's gonna be a touchdown. 0:37:14.960 --> 0:37:15.360 I believe. 0:37:15.400 --> 0:37:18.360 So it's not gonna be a touchdown. 0:37:18.400 --> 0:37:20.560 It is might be the same this same concept that 0:37:20.600 --> 0:37:23.920 basically the play, the play is over, point one seconds 0:37:23.960 --> 0:37:25.600 goes by, and now it's got to be an after 0:37:25.640 --> 0:37:25.959 the place. 0:37:26.160 --> 0:37:27.120 What's the inconsistency. 0:37:27.160 --> 0:37:30.239 I'm trying to figure out what Todd's rationale saying it 0:37:30.239 --> 0:37:31.440 should still count. 0:37:31.280 --> 0:37:32.640 What point do we draw the line? 0:37:32.680 --> 0:37:34.719 Is it like one point one seconds, is it zero 0:37:34.719 --> 0:37:36.600 point six seconds, or is it zero point one second? 0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:38.920 Well, I don't think there's an inconsistency. So what you're saying, 0:37:39.160 --> 0:37:41.520 Todd makes sense on the service where it's like it's 0:37:41.680 --> 0:37:45.719 dead as far as the play is concerned, But the 0:37:45.760 --> 0:37:47.520 actions in the play and the position at the time 0:37:47.520 --> 0:37:51.040 of the of the hit are very much live basically, right. 0:37:51.400 --> 0:37:54.760 That's the distinction to me. The better they make judgment, 0:37:55.280 --> 0:37:58.200 to me that they make judgment. Yeah, the better argument 0:37:58.360 --> 0:38:02.759 is what are you trying to do with targeting penalties 0:38:02.760 --> 0:38:04.960 to begin with? You're trying to protect the players, right, 0:38:04.960 --> 0:38:08.320 he trys a safety thing. In that respect, it's wholly 0:38:08.360 --> 0:38:12.600 inconsistent with the with the punishment and the lack thereof 0:38:12.640 --> 0:38:15.719 doled out, right, that's the real argument. I think like 0:38:15.920 --> 0:38:18.040 it goes counter to the spirit of what they're trying 0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:19.840 to do with that stuff. But I don't see it 0:38:19.840 --> 0:38:22.239 inconsistent with the dead ball if somebody goes out of bounds, Right, 0:38:22.640 --> 0:38:24.160 Let's say somebody goes out of bounds and then they 0:38:24.160 --> 0:38:28.080 get popped. That's a dead ball foul if it happens 0:38:28.120 --> 0:38:31.000 on third down that the team that got popped still 0:38:31.000 --> 0:38:34.680 maintains possession and they get the penalty. But if it's 0:38:34.719 --> 0:38:37.680 on fourth down, they don't keep the ball. It goes 0:38:37.719 --> 0:38:41.560 to the other team. And when that happens, we'll all 0:38:41.600 --> 0:38:42.840 be up in arms. We'll be like, what do you 0:38:42.920 --> 0:38:45.160 mean it's a personal foul? He was out of bit 0:38:46.160 --> 0:38:49.120 or fourth down? Play was done, the possession change already happened. 0:38:50.000 --> 0:38:52.600 Great. I just think the dead ball should be defined 0:38:53.000 --> 0:38:56.719 as after the action of the play is over and 0:38:57.840 --> 0:39:00.279 the refs can make a judgment calle, just like they 0:39:00.280 --> 0:39:02.600 make a judgment call on holding what it needs to 0:39:02.640 --> 0:39:05.600 have the play being over. Now, Okay, everyone jumps up 0:39:05.600 --> 0:39:08.000 and they start punching each other. That's a dead file. 0:39:08.160 --> 0:39:08.920 But okay, whatever. 0:39:09.080 --> 0:39:10.840 Anyway, I was just trying to Praisey for remembering that 0:39:10.840 --> 0:39:11.719 because I thought that was awesome. 0:39:11.760 --> 0:39:12.920 Thank you anyway, I appreciate it. 0:39:12.960 --> 0:39:13.920 Can I give my baseball. 0:39:13.960 --> 0:39:16.520 You'll never see it again the anniversary today, I think 0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:18.839 twenty five years ago, so you never see this again. 0:39:18.880 --> 0:39:20.319 With the rules, I. 0:39:20.239 --> 0:39:23.680 Think it was Astro's padres two outs, two strikes, ninth inning. 0:39:23.680 --> 0:39:27.120 The catcher signals for an intentional walk sneaks back behind 0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:28.880 the plate and the pitcher buzzes in a fastball for 0:39:28.920 --> 0:39:29.919 a strike three game over. 0:39:30.040 --> 0:39:34.480 I retweeted it, Oh wow, that's amazing. Yeah, I never 0:39:34.480 --> 0:39:35.080 see that again. 0:39:36.560 --> 0:39:37.000 Where are we? 0:39:37.040 --> 0:39:39.680 It is my last over seven and over seven and 0:39:39.680 --> 0:39:41.839 a half and have six homers head and it goes under. 0:39:41.920 --> 0:39:42.560 Will never happen? 0:39:42.600 --> 0:39:45.160 Oh that was that was amazing. That was the worst 0:39:45.200 --> 0:39:48.319 beat ever in baseball? Yeah? What was it? Eight to seven? 0:39:48.360 --> 0:39:49.120 And how it was? All? 0:39:49.160 --> 0:39:49.239 So? 0:39:50.120 --> 0:39:52.120 The overrunder was seven and a half? I had the 0:39:52.200 --> 0:39:54.120 over six home runs were oh. 0:39:54.080 --> 0:39:56.600 Yeah, and then four to three. That's right, all solo 0:39:56.719 --> 0:39:59.680 Jimmy Jackson, Okay, I am. I am with Steve. I 0:39:59.680 --> 0:40:02.040 hate to duplicate, but I thought I was gonna be 0:40:02.080 --> 0:40:03.480 the smarty pants and he beat me to it. I 0:40:03.760 --> 0:40:05.960 like the Steelers, and this is more of a Malcolm 0:40:05.960 --> 0:40:08.640 Gladwell blink thing or how many times do we remember 0:40:08.719 --> 0:40:12.080 steal the Steelers as dogs winning an opening game on 0:40:12.400 --> 0:40:16.240 like some special teams nonsense, or just the fact that TJ. 0:40:16.400 --> 0:40:20.440 Watt made an amazing play. That's the thing with the Steelers. 0:40:20.440 --> 0:40:23.719 They still have big playmakers on defense. And you're right 0:40:23.719 --> 0:40:26.359 about everything about the preseason Kenny Pickett looked as good 0:40:26.400 --> 0:40:29.880 as anybody in the entire preseason. I think the Brock 0:40:29.960 --> 0:40:31.719 Purty thing is the other thing I would add to this. 0:40:32.160 --> 0:40:34.960 Rock Purdy had a magic carpet ride last year, winning 0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:37.360 seven straight games before the whole injury game in the 0:40:37.400 --> 0:40:39.879 playoffs against the Eagles, him and Josh Johnson going out. 0:40:40.520 --> 0:40:44.560 He had a lot of babbit should have been interceptions 0:40:44.560 --> 0:40:48.600 that weren't. Todd calls them itches, interceptions that should that 0:40:48.640 --> 0:40:51.000 should have happened. Was that what we call it interceptions 0:40:51.000 --> 0:40:56.479 that should have that should have had poor football focus 0:40:56.520 --> 0:40:58.520 actually has a stout for this, which is called, like 0:40:58.680 --> 0:41:02.479 I think, turnover world worthy plays. This is different now 0:41:02.520 --> 0:41:05.520 that he's no longer the mystery relevant coming in as 0:41:05.560 --> 0:41:08.160 the backup and everybody loves him and there's you know, 0:41:08.360 --> 0:41:11.520 no pressure. You're the starter now. Not only are the starter, 0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:15.560 they traded that other dude, and so this is your team. 0:41:15.600 --> 0:41:17.879 And yes, Sam Darnold's lurking. Apparently he had a great 0:41:18.000 --> 0:41:20.160 off season two. So I think the dynamics a little 0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:22.800 different as well, a little more pressure. I like the Steelers. 0:41:22.840 --> 0:41:24.440 I'll take the points. I'll take the two and a half. 0:41:25.080 --> 0:41:27.240 That's my third which brings. 0:41:27.040 --> 0:41:29.040 By the way, we didn't do we didn't do our 0:41:29.760 --> 0:41:31.520 last year. In the beginning, we talked a little bit 0:41:31.520 --> 0:41:33.960 about in game Do we want to just maybe talk 0:41:34.000 --> 0:41:37.239 about some general in game strategy maybe for a minute 0:41:37.320 --> 0:41:37.560 or two. 0:41:37.600 --> 0:41:39.040 Well, it sounds like you'd like to what would you 0:41:39.080 --> 0:41:40.200 like to say? Share with her? 0:41:40.280 --> 0:41:41.640 Or we don't have to it's your show. 0:41:41.760 --> 0:41:45.000 Well no, usually, you know, I know that is usually 0:41:45.040 --> 0:41:47.000 what we do is we talk about something that happened 0:41:47.040 --> 0:41:47.880 the previous week. 0:41:48.080 --> 0:41:50.680 But it's week one, right, But I want to talk 0:41:50.719 --> 0:41:54.120 about a gentle thing, please do, please do. So here's 0:41:54.160 --> 0:41:58.400 a little general thing. A generalisiming in the National Football 0:41:58.480 --> 0:42:02.000 League very often late in football games and a fourteen 0:42:02.120 --> 0:42:04.960 point game, a team is losing by fourteen, they're coming 0:42:05.000 --> 0:42:07.560 down for the back door. So let's say the score, 0:42:07.600 --> 0:42:10.879 for instance, is twenty eight to fourteen. That's forty two. 0:42:10.960 --> 0:42:13.719 And often the books will put up a forty eight 0:42:13.760 --> 0:42:16.320 and a half or a forty nine and a half 0:42:16.640 --> 0:42:19.239 if they you know, if they think, you know, a 0:42:19.280 --> 0:42:22.840 touchdown versus a touchdown and more so, here's something that 0:42:22.880 --> 0:42:26.040 I think people need to pay attention to. And if 0:42:26.040 --> 0:42:28.799 it's twenty eight fourteen in my example, and they get 0:42:28.840 --> 0:42:30.960 a touchdown, you're thinking, okay, they'll kick the extra point. 0:42:30.960 --> 0:42:33.520 That's forty nine. Twenty eight to twenty one is forty nine. 0:42:33.920 --> 0:42:37.200 Not so fast, my friend. Everyone is going for two 0:42:37.440 --> 0:42:40.200 now down eight and now they're even doing it in 0:42:40.239 --> 0:42:42.600 other scenarios when they're down you know, seventeen and get 0:42:42.640 --> 0:42:44.680 a touchdown, or they're down in you know, they're doing 0:42:44.719 --> 0:42:48.120 it in all kinds of different wacky scenarios. So if 0:42:48.120 --> 0:42:50.960 you're betting in game and you see that there's six 0:42:51.040 --> 0:42:54.000 and a half more points on the line and you're thinking, oh, 0:42:54.040 --> 0:42:55.880 I think this team can get a backdoor touchdown and 0:42:55.920 --> 0:42:59.239 I'll win my over bet, wait just a second. You 0:42:59.440 --> 0:43:01.440 also have to consider if the team is going to 0:43:01.480 --> 0:43:03.600 go for two point conversion, which is about a fifty 0:43:03.600 --> 0:43:07.000 percent play, and that has to be figured also into 0:43:07.000 --> 0:43:09.640 your handicap. Steve, I'm sure you have opinions. 0:43:09.200 --> 0:43:11.919 On this, sure, And obviously the jet the dead Nuts 0:43:11.960 --> 0:43:13.920 play is to bet that the game will land, even 0:43:14.320 --> 0:43:17.120 dead nuts, because whether they score the touchdown or not, 0:43:17.440 --> 0:43:19.960 it's going to land even because the word is out 0:43:20.239 --> 0:43:22.920 your union buddies are talking when you're down fourteen to 0:43:22.920 --> 0:43:25.520 score a touchdown, and go for two. The Eagles pioneered this. 0:43:25.880 --> 0:43:28.120 It's amazing. It took the NFL thirty years to figure 0:43:28.120 --> 0:43:31.719 this out. The quick math that take me to ten seconds. 0:43:32.120 --> 0:43:34.920 The assumptions are, you're down fourteen, you're going to get 0:43:34.920 --> 0:43:37.799 two touchdowns, and your opponent's not going to score. All right, 0:43:37.840 --> 0:43:39.520 you can just kick the extra point twice. You got 0:43:39.520 --> 0:43:41.480 a fifty to fifty chance to win if you go 0:43:41.560 --> 0:43:43.080 for two, and we're gonna assume they you get a 0:43:43.080 --> 0:43:44.920 fifty percent of the time, might be a little aggressive. 0:43:45.560 --> 0:43:47.439 If you go for two after getting it the first 0:43:47.480 --> 0:43:49.239 time the first touchdown, you win sixty two and a 0:43:49.280 --> 0:43:51.440 half percent. You can map out all the permutations. It's 0:43:51.480 --> 0:43:54.759 pretty straightforward, and sixty two and a half percents bigger 0:43:54.800 --> 0:43:57.239 than fifty percent, so it's not even close. And yet 0:43:57.239 --> 0:43:59.120 for years a lot what a lot of teams, bad 0:43:59.160 --> 0:44:01.399 coaches would do is they kick after the first one 0:44:01.600 --> 0:44:03.480 and they go for two after the second one, which 0:44:03.560 --> 0:44:07.000 is totally oppo because if you if you if if 0:44:07.040 --> 0:44:09.359 you missed the sec the two point compre you'll lose. 0:44:09.880 --> 0:44:11.960 But if you miss it after your first touchdown, well 0:44:12.000 --> 0:44:14.080 then you know, okay, Now I go to the second time. 0:44:14.080 --> 0:44:17.160 It's a very easy mathematical tree, and inevitably, when it 0:44:17.160 --> 0:44:19.400 happens again, people will go crazy on Twitter. But let 0:44:19.440 --> 0:44:21.239 me just ask you, because you just what you said 0:44:21.320 --> 0:44:24.440 sort of gave the indication that you assume most of 0:44:24.480 --> 0:44:27.040 these teams are on board with this. What percentage of 0:44:27.080 --> 0:44:28.719 teams do you actually think are on board with this? 0:44:28.800 --> 0:44:31.360 Eighty percent of the NFL forty forty percent of the 0:44:31.400 --> 0:44:32.919 College for yeah, the word the words gone. 0:44:34.360 --> 0:44:36.239 You think it's gonna Wait a minute, hold on, you 0:44:36.280 --> 0:44:39.719 guys think eighty percent of NFL teams eighty percent? So 0:44:39.719 --> 0:44:42.319 what's that twenty six teams out of thirty two whatever 0:44:42.360 --> 0:44:47.880 it is that they would down fourteen would score and 0:44:47.960 --> 0:44:49.600 go for two. I don't buy that. 0:44:49.640 --> 0:44:52.239 The entire analytics team should be fired immediately if they don't, 0:44:52.400 --> 0:44:53.680 because it's already been solved. 0:44:53.680 --> 0:44:56.200 I agree with that, but I do not for one 0:44:56.280 --> 0:44:59.239 second believe it's eighty percent. So will you at least? 0:45:00.040 --> 0:45:02.760 I bet I'll go ahead and lay minus three fifty 0:45:02.840 --> 0:45:05.000 that that that on every occurrence that happens in the 0:45:05.320 --> 0:45:07.600 with with eight minutes to go or less, that that 0:45:07.640 --> 0:45:09.320 the teams will go for two in that situation. 0:45:09.480 --> 0:45:10.799 Will do you see it that way as well. Do 0:45:10.800 --> 0:45:13.759 you think it's that many would have too? I would 0:45:13.760 --> 0:45:15.040 have set old school that. 0:45:15.320 --> 0:45:17.200 Yeah, I think that was Deely. It's interesting. 0:45:17.239 --> 0:45:19.960 Florida did it twenty one Florida Thursday night against you 0:45:20.000 --> 0:45:21.879 tak down twenty one, scored a touchdown, went for two 0:45:21.880 --> 0:45:23.360 and got it, which that's an unusual one. 0:45:23.360 --> 0:45:24.279 I don't remember seeing that one. 0:45:24.320 --> 0:45:26.279 That is the proper call. Also, by the way, yeah, 0:45:26.320 --> 0:45:27.280 same same concept. 0:45:27.400 --> 0:45:29.960 But that's I'm shocked that you guys are so sure 0:45:30.000 --> 0:45:32.000 it's eighty percent. I don't buy that at all. 0:45:32.520 --> 0:45:34.680 Like for me, it's not eighty, but it's definitely over. 0:45:34.600 --> 0:45:36.120 Four and a half. If I could be wrong, it 0:45:36.160 --> 0:45:36.960 could be seventy. 0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:39.920 The word is out, the word is out of this, 0:45:40.040 --> 0:45:41.640 and they're all doing it and they don't want to 0:45:41.640 --> 0:45:44.120 look dumb because the other smart teams are doing it. 0:45:44.320 --> 0:45:46.279 Are they all doing it? Like? I must have missed this. 0:45:46.280 --> 0:45:48.120 This is a line from from Wall Street the movie 0:45:48.160 --> 0:45:50.240 where we're I don't know what to make of it, Gordon, 0:45:50.320 --> 0:45:52.359 everybody's going for two when they're down eight. 0:45:53.040 --> 0:45:55.040 I I mean usually when we talk. I mean what 0:45:55.080 --> 0:45:56.880 I remember is when I come in and do guessing 0:45:56.880 --> 0:46:01.040 lines on Monday morning. Usually My line is is, now 0:46:01.040 --> 0:46:04.960 we have coaches who don't even know what is analytically 0:46:05.040 --> 0:46:08.919 correct or not, and they do or they do they 0:46:08.960 --> 0:46:12.439 do stuff that only is when it doesn't work. Oh 0:46:12.480 --> 0:46:15.840 that was analytics. When it does work, Oh it wasn't analytics. 0:46:15.840 --> 0:46:17.440 By the way, the Steelers are the team that I 0:46:17.520 --> 0:46:19.520 don't think is going to go for two down eight, 0:46:19.920 --> 0:46:22.200 despite the fact that oftentimes they go for two after 0:46:22.239 --> 0:46:23.160 their first touchdowns. 0:46:23.160 --> 0:46:26.120 Exactly right, Washington. I don't believe Ron Rivera is going 0:46:26.120 --> 0:46:29.360 for two. There's no chance unless he. 0:46:29.400 --> 0:46:32.920 Doesn't riverboat down fourteen. He only riverboats down ten. 0:46:34.480 --> 0:46:36.279 Is Belichick a go for two guy? Because I don't 0:46:36.280 --> 0:46:37.880 even know if he I don't even know if he is. 0:46:38.160 --> 0:46:40.719 Scenarios, But this is the great We should chart this. 0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:41.840 We should chart this. 0:46:42.040 --> 0:46:43.799 We should win the meg Yeah, we. 0:46:43.760 --> 0:46:46.480 Should say Okay, last week it happened, you know, five times, 0:46:46.520 --> 0:46:49.240 here's what to happen. I think it's very very interesting, 0:46:49.239 --> 0:46:51.359 and I think it's definitely over fifty percent. 0:46:51.239 --> 0:46:51.919 Now to be fair. 0:46:52.640 --> 0:46:54.719 To be fair, if you're a ten point favorite, you 0:46:54.760 --> 0:46:57.160 shouldn't go for two because your chance of winning an 0:46:57.160 --> 0:46:59.160 overtime is greater than sixty two and a half percent. 0:46:59.280 --> 0:47:01.800 So now you're asking for them to compete. 0:47:01.880 --> 0:47:04.960 To understand, I understand, so put put everything in, But 0:47:05.160 --> 0:47:06.920 I just wanted to disclube it doesn't make sense. 0:47:07.040 --> 0:47:10.360 That's interesting, but the original point, Steve, do you agree 0:47:10.360 --> 0:47:12.920 that people have to be more aware of the end 0:47:13.000 --> 0:47:17.400 game of permutations there? Because you know you're gonna have 0:47:17.440 --> 0:47:19.200 that scenario with the six and a half A lot 0:47:19.239 --> 0:47:20.680 of times those books will hang the. 0:47:20.640 --> 0:47:24.040 Forty eight a half eight, and then you inevitably you'll 0:47:24.080 --> 0:47:26.600 hear the light bears like why are they going for two? 0:47:26.680 --> 0:47:29.319 Like they haven't watched a football game. And you know, 0:47:29.680 --> 0:47:32.320 I will say this about the coaches, like we watch 0:47:32.680 --> 0:47:35.319 way more you know, football than they do. We watch 0:47:35.360 --> 0:47:37.239 the end game of every game. They have no idea. 0:47:37.239 --> 0:47:39.000 I mean, they got like one hundred thousand things. 0:47:38.840 --> 0:47:40.399 On their plate. They don't have time to watch any 0:47:40.440 --> 0:47:41.160 of these other games. 0:47:41.280 --> 0:47:43.279 I mean, guessing lines is nothing, but like I mean, 0:47:43.400 --> 0:47:46.280 besides the guessing of the lines, those recaps are nothing 0:47:46.280 --> 0:47:49.160 but one of these coaches doing like over and over again. 0:47:49.440 --> 0:47:50.080 So I mean, I'm. 0:47:50.200 --> 0:47:53.080 Shocked at announcers. Oh, I can't believe they're going for 0:47:53.160 --> 0:47:54.880 it here fourth and eight. It's like they're not going 0:47:54.920 --> 0:47:56.279 for it. It's the end of the first half. They're 0:47:56.280 --> 0:47:58.680 pretending to get the clock to run before they punt. 0:47:58.760 --> 0:48:00.239 Well, Will and I were talking about I mean, Chris 0:48:00.280 --> 0:48:01.800 Valor usually does the stuff, but we were watching the 0:48:01.800 --> 0:48:04.120 first college football game and there was a fumble forward 0:48:04.760 --> 0:48:08.319 and he was just he seemed incredulous, like he was like, oh, 0:48:08.360 --> 0:48:09.600 they get the first down. I was like, you know, 0:48:09.719 --> 0:48:12.040 the ball goes back to where he was like his 0:48:12.120 --> 0:48:15.080 simple stuff. You're like, Wow, everybody's not in mid season forms. 0:48:15.080 --> 0:48:18.640 So I don't about argue that people. I'm sorry, go ahead. 0:48:18.680 --> 0:48:20.239 Well no, I was gonna say about you masked New 0:48:20.320 --> 0:48:23.480 Mexico that opening week zero Saturday. New Mexico scores to 0:48:23.520 --> 0:48:24.960 make it a ten point game four and a half 0:48:25.000 --> 0:48:27.160 minutes left the on site kick, and I forget who 0:48:27.160 --> 0:48:28.680 the announcer was, Oh, this is way too early. 0:48:28.719 --> 0:48:30.080 You can't do that. I mean, its way too early. It's 0:48:30.080 --> 0:48:31.919 four minutes after the game, you're down by ten points. 0:48:31.960 --> 0:48:34.239 You need the ball, jeezy when it went in doubt. 0:48:34.280 --> 0:48:38.120 Whenever it's a close call, always be aggressive if you 0:48:38.160 --> 0:48:38.920 don't know what to do. 0:48:39.160 --> 0:48:41.759 It's rarely wrong to go for it on fourth down 0:48:42.000 --> 0:48:44.279 and it's rarely wrong to go for two when in doubt. 0:48:44.640 --> 0:48:46.680 I'm gonna go under on eighty percent. But that but 0:48:46.760 --> 0:48:48.680 that is a great it's a great in game point 0:48:48.680 --> 0:48:50.560 that you make, Todd. And the other one that I 0:48:50.560 --> 0:48:52.880 would bring up is, you know, the most basic of 0:48:52.880 --> 0:48:55.160 all is the whole two for one thing, right, Like 0:48:55.200 --> 0:48:58.280 I think if we gave just one one in game 0:48:58.320 --> 0:49:01.239 point that would be obvious to men, right, but maybe 0:49:01.280 --> 0:49:04.920 not to others. Is know who's getting the ball first 0:49:04.920 --> 0:49:06.960 in the second half, and if there is. 0:49:07.040 --> 0:49:09.440 Especially for the end of third QUARTERBT, the end of 0:49:09.480 --> 0:49:12.799 third QUARTERBT, that's available with books now if you know 0:49:13.080 --> 0:49:14.880 who's sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you, Gilly, but 0:49:14.920 --> 0:49:18.040 I'm very second about that a third QUARTERBT, if there's 0:49:18.040 --> 0:49:19.759 three minutes to go and one team has the ball. 0:49:19.800 --> 0:49:22.320 By the way, the NFL teams are much smarter about 0:49:22.360 --> 0:49:24.759 making sure they get the last possession. In the old days, 0:49:24.840 --> 0:49:27.359 they would rush down score with forty seven seconds off, 0:49:27.400 --> 0:49:29.160 the other team would get a field goal. Teams are 0:49:29.160 --> 0:49:31.440 getting smarter now. They're not rushing when they're at the 0:49:31.440 --> 0:49:34.160 plus forty five with forty five seconds. They slow it 0:49:34.200 --> 0:49:36.080 down and they make sure they get that last possession. 0:49:36.239 --> 0:49:39.160 So now the end of third quarter bet that you 0:49:39.200 --> 0:49:40.960 can have in a lot of books is huge. If 0:49:41.000 --> 0:49:42.759 you know who's getting the ball first to start the 0:49:42.760 --> 0:49:45.120 second half and you have the ball with two minutes 0:49:45.160 --> 0:49:48.879 to go, that has to be a gigantic, huge thing 0:49:49.160 --> 0:49:50.759 for the end of third bet. And I do not 0:49:50.840 --> 0:49:53.239 believe the algorithms have caught that yet. 0:49:53.239 --> 0:49:55.560 And pursuit to what Gilly said though, right after the 0:49:55.560 --> 0:49:57.440 games kickoff, the first thing I do is I take 0:49:57.520 --> 0:50:00.239 bike a green highlighter and I green every NFL the 0:50:00.320 --> 0:50:02.360 get starts with the ball because that way, I know gets. 0:50:02.160 --> 0:50:02.839 In the second half. 0:50:03.239 --> 0:50:05.319 And if you're betting live NBA, and I know this 0:50:05.400 --> 0:50:07.920 is difficult. Whoever wins the tip gets the ball to 0:50:07.920 --> 0:50:09.520 start the fourth quarter, they start with the first and 0:50:09.560 --> 0:50:11.520 the fourth quarter. And you could say that's trivial. No, 0:50:11.600 --> 0:50:14.000 it's worth half a point, half a points a lot. 0:50:14.320 --> 0:50:16.200 You know, be betting live late in the third quarter. 0:50:16.320 --> 0:50:18.600 See now, I do agree with you guys that that 0:50:18.719 --> 0:50:20.720 thing about the end of the first half and figuring 0:50:20.719 --> 0:50:24.080 out the timing that eighty percent of teams get that. Now, 0:50:24.200 --> 0:50:27.279 like Bill Belichick was the master at that right maximizing 0:50:27.320 --> 0:50:30.319 possessions and minimizing the opponents. I do agree that most 0:50:30.320 --> 0:50:31.799 of the league is on board with that, but that 0:50:31.960 --> 0:50:35.040 fourteen to eight to six thing, I don't believe it's 0:50:35.040 --> 0:50:37.480 eighty percent yet. I think I think it will really closer. 0:50:38.400 --> 0:50:39.719 You believe it's over fifty. 0:50:39.960 --> 0:50:42.359 I believe it's fifty. I'm not even gonna say over. 0:50:42.440 --> 0:50:43.520 It's past the tipping point. 0:50:43.520 --> 0:50:45.359 It's kind of like when when you win the coin toss, 0:50:45.360 --> 0:50:48.120 you're supposed to defer, And for years Belichick was like 0:50:48.160 --> 0:50:50.000 the first guy to do it every time, and then 0:50:50.040 --> 0:50:52.400 word got out where half the half the league started 0:50:52.440 --> 0:50:55.680 to defer, and then like two years later, everybody deferred 0:50:55.880 --> 0:50:58.200 because the memo got out. And I believe the memo 0:50:58.239 --> 0:51:00.200 has gotten out on the fourteen to eight to say. 0:51:01.080 --> 0:51:03.080 Okay, can we remember it more when peams go for 0:51:03.120 --> 0:51:05.120 two because it didn't happen for so long that it 0:51:05.120 --> 0:51:07.040 sticks in our brain, like when keeams kick the extra point. 0:51:07.040 --> 0:51:08.719 It doesn't really register when teams go for it. 0:51:08.760 --> 0:51:10.080 What we notice it more? That's what I think. I 0:51:10.080 --> 0:51:11.000 think it's fifty to fifty. 0:51:11.360 --> 0:51:14.120 Yeah, okay, teaser of the week. Is that what we 0:51:14.160 --> 0:51:15.920 do next? I believe it's teaser of the week two 0:51:16.080 --> 0:51:20.919 we're two teams six point teaser. Long teaser legs are 0:51:21.480 --> 0:51:25.000 not plentiful, but there are a few. Pittsburgh obviously leaps 0:51:25.040 --> 0:51:28.319 off the page as a possible long teaser leg two 0:51:28.320 --> 0:51:31.960 and a half through the three and the seven. There 0:51:32.000 --> 0:51:35.200 are others as well, including the Cleveland Browns, who are 0:51:35.239 --> 0:51:39.160 two and a half point dogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. 0:51:39.840 --> 0:51:42.680 Those are the two most glaring ones right off the top. 0:51:42.719 --> 0:51:46.040 I'm just sort of scanning away. The Jets will also 0:51:46.080 --> 0:51:48.880 be a long teaser leg on Monday night home against 0:51:48.920 --> 0:51:51.239 the Bills. I think I'm forgetting one obvious wound in 0:51:51.280 --> 0:51:56.240 here somewhere. Yeah, So anyway, and the Packers I suppose 0:51:56.239 --> 0:51:58.040 would be well Packers not quite don't. 0:51:57.880 --> 0:52:00.200 Quite qualify that mostly ones mostly. 0:52:00.120 --> 0:52:02.719 Yeah again, wong teaser legs, and I know Stevie will 0:52:03.320 --> 0:52:06.920 back me up on this. Totals matter here on long legs. 0:52:07.280 --> 0:52:10.640 Stanford Long real name John Ferguson, lived in San Diego, 0:52:11.160 --> 0:52:13.200 wrote the book on Sports Betting so many years ago. 0:52:13.320 --> 0:52:17.399 He identified the three most positive ev teaser legs home 0:52:17.600 --> 0:52:19.360 and road dogs of between one and a half and 0:52:19.400 --> 0:52:20.680 two and a half that you would tease through the 0:52:20.680 --> 0:52:22.880 three and the seven. And a home favorite of between 0:52:22.920 --> 0:52:24.400 seven and a half eight and a half that we 0:52:24.400 --> 0:52:26.680 would tease down through the seven and the three. It 0:52:26.760 --> 0:52:29.920 is total dependent, right, A total of let's just be crazy, 0:52:30.120 --> 0:52:32.640 sixty ain't the same as a total of forty. On this, 0:52:33.200 --> 0:52:35.239 the fewer points you have in a total, the more 0:52:35.320 --> 0:52:37.839 valuable each point is. It's the same reason why we 0:52:37.880 --> 0:52:41.120 don't recommend teasers, say in a sport like the NBA 0:52:41.239 --> 0:52:43.600 or college football, where intuitively you know those sports and 0:52:43.640 --> 0:52:45.160 the scoring to be more volatile. 0:52:46.600 --> 0:52:48.200 Good summary, good good summing. 0:52:48.320 --> 0:52:51.160 Check your rules at the books, because yeah, a lot 0:52:51.160 --> 0:52:52.839 of them have changed to some well like circle Now 0:52:52.880 --> 0:52:53.680 is mius one thirty? 0:52:53.680 --> 0:52:54.000 All right? 0:52:54.040 --> 0:52:57.200 South points mius one thirty. God can't win playing teasers 0:52:57.280 --> 0:53:00.440 mius one thirty. So let me do the math here. So, 0:53:00.560 --> 0:53:03.440 if you're laying minus one twenty on a six point 0:53:03.760 --> 0:53:07.919 teaser each leg, you're essentially laying minus two eighty, all right, 0:53:08.280 --> 0:53:10.120 I know that sounds like that's crazy. So if you 0:53:10.160 --> 0:53:13.319 took if you took two eighty and you wagered it 0:53:13.520 --> 0:53:15.520 on your first leg of the teaser and it covers, 0:53:15.800 --> 0:53:17.560 that's like winning one hundred. Now you're taking three eighty 0:53:17.600 --> 0:53:20.800 and you're laying you know, two eighty again. So because 0:53:20.840 --> 0:53:23.400 of that, you know recognize there's a whole lot of 0:53:23.440 --> 0:53:25.400 extra veig and once it goes above minus one twenty, 0:53:25.719 --> 0:53:27.800 it really is not going to be viable. 0:53:27.840 --> 0:53:28.960 The math isn't going to work out. 0:53:28.960 --> 0:53:30.839 Stephen Vegas did this for us on a numbers game 0:53:30.880 --> 0:53:33.600 this morning. This is the Vegas Books stations in South 0:53:33.640 --> 0:53:36.759 Point minus one twenty five on six point teasers, bet 0:53:36.880 --> 0:53:40.080 MGM and Circum minus one thirty, Westgate and Boyd minus 0:53:40.080 --> 0:53:42.799 one forty Caesars who by the way, if you can 0:53:42.800 --> 0:53:44.439 get into the app in the first place, you're doing 0:53:44.440 --> 0:53:48.560 something special. Uh, they're They're not offering six point teasers 0:53:48.640 --> 0:53:51.160 right now. They're offering minus one thirty on six and 0:53:51.200 --> 0:53:53.799 a half, which is good, Which is good. Yeah, yeah. 0:53:53.880 --> 0:53:59.320 And Caesar's Nevada. If you have a tie and a winner, 0:53:59.400 --> 0:54:02.080 or a tie and a loss, it gets greater to push. 0:54:02.160 --> 0:54:04.440 But if you do Caesar's in New Jersey, you lose. 0:54:04.640 --> 0:54:06.960 Oh it's a different rule at the same company. 0:54:07.000 --> 0:54:10.120 BETMGM Nevada is also a refund on a tie and 0:54:10.160 --> 0:54:13.080 a loss, which again blows people's minds. 0:54:13.160 --> 0:54:15.360 And so if you get the bad rules on the 0:54:15.360 --> 0:54:17.280 ties you have to always pick your number of points 0:54:17.280 --> 0:54:19.560 such that you can't land on an ineture to avoid 0:54:19.560 --> 0:54:20.359 that nasty rule. 0:54:20.360 --> 0:54:22.239 And the theory behind the refund is because you can't 0:54:22.320 --> 0:54:23.799 drop a teaser to a one team tease. 0:54:23.840 --> 0:54:24.600 That's right, right. 0:54:24.719 --> 0:54:26.120 Okay, by the way, just let me just say this 0:54:26.160 --> 0:54:28.400 about the Caesars Nevada app. I'm not I said this 0:54:28.440 --> 0:54:30.360 on a numbers game this morning. I'm not trying to 0:54:30.360 --> 0:54:33.560 be an ass but if anybody from Caesar's Eric Bigiot 0:54:33.560 --> 0:54:36.840 Will Hill, somebody is listening, fix the app. 0:54:37.040 --> 0:54:41.040 My god, it shouldn't be mandatory that every executive yes 0:54:41.160 --> 0:54:42.560 making six figures are higher. 0:54:42.600 --> 0:54:43.439 Oh, this is so true. 0:54:43.440 --> 0:54:45.320 It has to have an assignment where they have to 0:54:45.360 --> 0:54:48.400 be able to make ten basic bets. They have to 0:54:48.400 --> 0:54:49.920 be able to bet a teaser. They have to be 0:54:50.000 --> 0:54:52.120 able to bet a prop a season win. Right, you 0:54:52.160 --> 0:54:53.480 get where I'm going. Have to be able to buy 0:54:53.520 --> 0:54:55.879 try to buy app point and put each weight bet 0:54:55.880 --> 0:54:57.959 in for ten dollars each and make it a live bet. 0:54:58.000 --> 0:54:59.480 Oh and you have to do it with like a 0:54:59.480 --> 0:55:01.160 game star arts in five minutes. 0:55:01.239 --> 0:55:05.040 Go right, and believe me, if these executives actually bet 0:55:05.040 --> 0:55:07.160 on that app, they'd they'd be having some meetings with 0:55:07.200 --> 0:55:09.120 their IT people on it, which not be pretty one. 0:55:09.920 --> 0:55:12.440 All right, Stevie, two team six point teasers. 0:55:12.440 --> 0:55:14.200 All right, I'm going to vary a little bit from 0:55:14.280 --> 0:55:16.279 Wang and I very rarely do. And here's why. I 0:55:16.360 --> 0:55:19.839 feel strongly that the Washington Arizona line will either stay 0:55:19.840 --> 0:55:21.040 at seven or go up. 0:55:21.160 --> 0:55:22.720 All right. It's also a low total. 0:55:22.719 --> 0:55:24.759 I like that with teasing, So I am gonna use 0:55:25.160 --> 0:55:29.600 the Washington commander, the much despised Washington Commanders against an 0:55:29.600 --> 0:55:32.239 Arizona team. People are already talking about this team's gonna 0:55:32.239 --> 0:55:34.799 go winless. Well, if they go winless, probably gonna win 0:55:34.800 --> 0:55:35.320 that leg. 0:55:35.239 --> 0:55:35.760 Of the teasers. 0:55:35.760 --> 0:55:37.600 I'm gonna obviously put it in with Pittsburgh because if 0:55:37.640 --> 0:55:39.240 I like them plus two and a half, I'm gonna 0:55:39.280 --> 0:55:41.600 like them plus eight and a half. One caveat I 0:55:41.600 --> 0:55:44.560 want to give to everyone. I firmly believe with Survivor, 0:55:44.640 --> 0:55:48.960 your optimal play week one is to play Washington. All right, 0:55:49.040 --> 0:55:51.440 So if you're gonna play Washington and your Survivor picks 0:55:51.800 --> 0:55:55.040 recognize you're already got some exposure on the same bet 0:55:55.080 --> 0:55:58.360 basically here. So if you're gonna enter Survivor five times, 0:55:58.440 --> 0:55:59.960 maybe don't go crazy teasing. 0:56:00.080 --> 0:56:02.319 I mentioned that this morning on the show, which is like, 0:56:02.360 --> 0:56:05.000 you're gonna have so many we forget about the NFLCAS. 0:56:05.040 --> 0:56:08.200 You have so many competing interests at the same time, 0:56:08.520 --> 0:56:11.319 or they're all so aligned you're terrified that they're all 0:56:11.360 --> 0:56:11.960 gonna blow up. 0:56:11.960 --> 0:56:13.719 And it probably doesn't matter that much we have one. 0:56:13.760 --> 0:56:15.680 But as you go deeper, if you're in Survivor by 0:56:15.719 --> 0:56:17.640 the time you get the week ten, you know, don't 0:56:17.680 --> 0:56:20.880 shove all in with with If you have fifty thousand 0:56:20.880 --> 0:56:23.600 in Survivor equity, you don't have to tease that same 0:56:23.640 --> 0:56:24.920 team across the board like. 0:56:24.880 --> 0:56:27.440 In your normal Wong teasers. But in this case, yeah, 0:56:27.440 --> 0:56:27.759 I'm going. 0:56:27.880 --> 0:56:30.480 And the reason I shied away from the Jets and 0:56:30.640 --> 0:56:33.399 Science shied away from Cleveland I'm worried those games could 0:56:33.400 --> 0:56:35.399 go to three, so they'll no longer qualify me too. 0:56:36.280 --> 0:56:39.120 Will I'm gonna go. I'll use Pittsburgh. 0:56:39.160 --> 0:56:41.840 That game will probably be twenty three twenty somebody who wins, 0:56:41.840 --> 0:56:42.680 who knows who cares. 0:56:42.760 --> 0:56:43.960 I'll take the eight and a half. 0:56:43.840 --> 0:56:46.799 With Pittsburgh, and I'll use the j E. T S Jets, Jets, 0:56:46.840 --> 0:56:48.600 Jets my second leg up to eight. 0:56:48.440 --> 0:56:48.839 And a half. 0:56:49.640 --> 0:56:51.759 I just think this team is boy. Everyone says they're 0:56:51.760 --> 0:56:54.000 over hyped. I kind of think they're underrated. You look 0:56:54.000 --> 0:56:55.480 at their team last year. I mean, they were just 0:56:55.800 --> 0:56:57.920 so good in so many different spots, with really probably 0:56:57.960 --> 0:56:59.759 the worst quarterback play in the entire leagues. To give 0:56:59.800 --> 0:57:01.239 me the eight and half of the Jets, the eight 0:57:01.280 --> 0:57:02.680 and half with the stillers. 0:57:02.840 --> 0:57:06.040 All right, will you're a Jets guy? First three first 0:57:06.040 --> 0:57:10.439 six games before the buye Home Buffalo act? But oh yeah, 0:57:10.440 --> 0:57:13.439 that's right you are. I'm sorry, home Buffalo at Dallas home, 0:57:13.480 --> 0:57:17.760 New England home, Kansas City at Denver home Philly. You're 0:57:17.800 --> 0:57:20.680 a Mets fan or a Yankees fan. You're a Yankees fan. 0:57:20.640 --> 0:57:25.960 Right, a Yankees fan, but a disgruntled different Yankees. 0:57:26.000 --> 0:57:27.760 And at this point, okay, those six games I just 0:57:27.840 --> 0:57:31.200 mentioned for the Jets. You're the Jets front office, and 0:57:31.240 --> 0:57:35.200 I gave you truth. Serum. If I said, would you 0:57:35.560 --> 0:57:37.959 if I gave you three and three right now, would 0:57:38.000 --> 0:57:39.560 you take it? Your answer would be. 0:57:40.200 --> 0:57:41.440 Yes, have too. 0:57:41.560 --> 0:57:43.160 That's probably you know I'm gonna disagree. 0:57:43.320 --> 0:57:45.760 Really all right, And here's why I think directionally, you're 0:57:45.840 --> 0:57:48.080 right that their expectations only two point eight wins so 0:57:48.120 --> 0:57:50.959 that this would be better than expectation. But it's kind 0:57:50.960 --> 0:57:53.120 of like trying to win a sports betting contest right 0:57:53.160 --> 0:57:56.560 where you hit we did take sixty percent through the 0:57:56.600 --> 0:57:57.400 first five weeks. 0:57:57.440 --> 0:57:58.960 Oh yeah, and it's like yeah. 0:57:58.800 --> 0:58:02.320 Of course, no, no, no, you actually have negative equity 0:58:02.360 --> 0:58:05.320 because you're because now your chance of winning and making 0:58:05.360 --> 0:58:07.360 the final table, making the top ten, that's gone down. 0:58:07.400 --> 0:58:09.479 So your chance of getting home field and actually playing 0:58:09.520 --> 0:58:13.320 for a championship as the Jets goes down. If you 0:58:13.480 --> 0:58:15.800 if you start the year even you know, six and four, 0:58:16.000 --> 0:58:17.280 three and three, very. 0:58:17.120 --> 0:58:18.880 True, It's very true, Todd. 0:58:20.080 --> 0:58:22.560 I'm just looking at those six games. Three and three 0:58:22.640 --> 0:58:24.240 is going to be a little rough, don't you think? 0:58:24.280 --> 0:58:25.880 That's what I'm saying. That's why I asked the question, like, 0:58:25.920 --> 0:58:26.840 well that take three and three. 0:58:26.920 --> 0:58:29.920 Yeah, three and three exceeds expectations. But but but but 0:58:29.920 --> 0:58:31.480 but their chance of winning the super Bowl would go 0:58:31.520 --> 0:58:32.400 down if they're three and three. 0:58:33.720 --> 0:58:36.160 You understand, Yeah, I know. 0:58:36.200 --> 0:58:37.600 I'm just I was just looking at the games and 0:58:37.640 --> 0:58:40.000 I'm thinking, who are the who they could for sure win. 0:58:40.320 --> 0:58:44.160 Nathaniel Hackett's no longer in Denver to not be able 0:58:44.160 --> 0:58:46.360 to get the play in before the play clock goes. 0:58:46.840 --> 0:58:49.200 Try a ninety yard field goal with their field goal 0:58:49.280 --> 0:58:50.280 kicking mule. 0:58:50.760 --> 0:58:53.400 We will never have we been? Have we been? Through 0:58:53.440 --> 0:58:54.360 the worst two pitches? 0:58:54.760 --> 0:58:58.040 Here's my analytics question. Yeah, is it good to get 0:58:58.040 --> 0:59:00.160 the play in so that you don't get the the 0:59:00.400 --> 0:59:03.000 delay of game penalty before the play click goes out? 0:59:03.120 --> 0:59:05.200 Let me check on that. Hold on, I'm told it 0:59:05.240 --> 0:59:06.160 is good to get to play in. 0:59:06.280 --> 0:59:09.880 Yes, Oh, okay, because Nathaniel Hackett I think he's the 0:59:09.880 --> 0:59:12.400 offensive coordinator for some other team. So maybe you could 0:59:12.440 --> 0:59:17.200 look for a prop most delay of game penalties, I 0:59:17.200 --> 0:59:18.800 don't think they have that profit it would be a 0:59:18.800 --> 0:59:20.120 good one to get any Why. 0:59:19.960 --> 0:59:22.640 Doesn't everyone just copy Belichick every time you have a 0:59:22.640 --> 0:59:26.200 fourth and one all right past midfield, immediately the quarterback 0:59:26.240 --> 0:59:28.880 doesn't even check what the coach. The coach just goes zebra, 0:59:29.040 --> 0:59:31.040 and zebra means everyone rushed the line of scrimmage and 0:59:31.400 --> 0:59:34.960 quarterbacks sneak and you get it every time. Yeah, you 0:59:35.000 --> 0:59:37.000 know when Now, if you hem a hall On line 0:59:37.040 --> 0:59:39.640 up for twenty five second and then do it, you 0:59:39.680 --> 0:59:40.320 get stacked. 0:59:40.400 --> 0:59:42.880 Yes, the the the How about going in the shotgun? 0:59:42.960 --> 0:59:44.840 The best is to go in the shotgun on fourth 0:59:44.840 --> 0:59:45.800 and inches and blow it. 0:59:45.840 --> 0:59:50.360 You know, we love that. The home crowd derisive countdown 0:59:50.360 --> 0:59:53.320 of the play clock with Hackett is still the greatest 0:59:53.320 --> 0:59:56.640 thing ever, like never again, never before. When we see 0:59:56.640 --> 1:00:01.000 that that was so great. 0:59:59.200 --> 1:00:03.080 My season is going to be uh. The the uh 1:00:03.760 --> 1:00:06.760 commanders too. I just think that that the commander, well, 1:00:06.880 --> 1:00:10.200 I think Sam Howe is going to be good. I 1:00:10.240 --> 1:00:13.280 remember him from North Carolina and I really, I really 1:00:13.320 --> 1:00:15.560 think he's gonna be pretty good. And I'm gonna go 1:00:15.560 --> 1:00:17.960 with the insurs. I mean Injurs plus eight and a 1:00:17.960 --> 1:00:21.160 half in that, Yan's gotta think that our guy Tolman. 1:00:21.360 --> 1:00:24.320 By the way, everybody does the same teaser, Steve, before 1:00:24.400 --> 1:00:26.080 you you go crazy. 1:00:25.720 --> 1:00:26.840 I can show you the sheet. 1:00:27.080 --> 1:00:30.600 We're week after week. Everybody has the same teasers. So 1:00:30.680 --> 1:00:33.080 let's not go and create a federal case out of 1:00:33.120 --> 1:00:35.680 it in forty two indictments because I picked the same 1:00:35.720 --> 1:00:37.600 teasers you. If I would have gone first, you would 1:00:37.600 --> 1:00:43.720 have picked the same teaser for Okay, So so bottom 1:00:43.800 --> 1:00:48.040 lying here is the doors. They're good there. It's a 1:00:48.080 --> 1:00:50.640 home game. I already told you how how it's gonna 1:00:50.680 --> 1:00:52.800 be really hard to park down there, So don't even 1:00:52.840 --> 1:00:54.600 think you're getting home in time for the second game. 1:00:54.880 --> 1:00:57.120 Forget about that. You in's better just go down on 1:00:57.320 --> 1:00:59.240 Mike's and watch the games there to you know, the 1:00:59.280 --> 1:01:02.080 bar next BNC Park or what whatever. You're you're not 1:01:02.160 --> 1:01:04.160 getting home in time for the second games. I could 1:01:04.240 --> 1:01:05.800 just forget it. Forget that. 1:01:06.400 --> 1:01:08.440 People are getting very nervous that laid miss one to 1:01:08.440 --> 1:01:10.880 eighty on the Miami Dolphins song the pot is almost 1:01:10.920 --> 1:01:11.240 over and. 1:01:12.200 --> 1:01:13.800 Getting no Dolphins song. 1:01:14.000 --> 1:01:15.040 It's getting dicey. 1:01:15.080 --> 1:01:20.240 I haven't done that. I haven't done that. I haven't 1:01:20.320 --> 1:01:21.720 done that song in a while. 1:01:22.960 --> 1:01:26.120 Oh good, no second verse there, Will Will's and I 1:01:26.160 --> 1:01:29.800 will okay, Well, in Will's head right now, the thought 1:01:29.800 --> 1:01:31.720 bubble and Will's like, oh my god, I signed up 1:01:31.760 --> 1:01:34.720 for a year of this. I have the same exact team. 1:01:34.840 --> 1:01:35.840 Is what I got? You got? No? 1:01:35.920 --> 1:01:37.480 I just want because it's on my mind, so it's 1:01:37.520 --> 1:01:39.200 probably on some of the listeners minds. I just want, 1:01:39.240 --> 1:01:41.240 like thirty seconds from everybody. Have you guys gotten your 1:01:41.240 --> 1:01:44.560 YouTube TV situation straight out? Because I haven't? And how 1:01:44.600 --> 1:01:45.720 does that affect the why betting? 1:01:46.000 --> 1:01:46.439 Oh Will? 1:01:46.520 --> 1:01:48.320 I have a great point on this, Gilly, Can I 1:01:48.320 --> 1:01:50.720 make my point about this, about this YouTube thing. 1:01:50.760 --> 1:01:51.880 Of course, tod go ahead. 1:01:53.240 --> 1:01:55.800 Here's my thing. I am not buying the damn YouTube 1:01:55.800 --> 1:01:58.640 to be four thousand minutes behind the clock. So how 1:01:58.680 --> 1:02:00.600 am I going to bet in game when the commercials 1:02:00.640 --> 1:02:03.560 over and I haven't even seen the end of what 1:02:03.680 --> 1:02:08.680 happened on the YouTube. It's ridiculous. However, however, I did 1:02:08.720 --> 1:02:12.080 find out that Direct TV is still going to be 1:02:12.200 --> 1:02:17.200 doing the games for restaurants and for casinos, So the 1:02:17.200 --> 1:02:19.760 the feeds in casinos and restaurants are still going to 1:02:19.840 --> 1:02:21.440 be on the old direct which is only maybe like 1:02:21.480 --> 1:02:24.760 twenty five second find I think that's gonna make a big, 1:02:24.880 --> 1:02:28.200 big difference, especially if you like endgame. So I am 1:02:28.240 --> 1:02:31.960 already mapping out which restaurants I'm going to, and I 1:02:32.000 --> 1:02:33.800 may go down to the Rivers and try to watch 1:02:33.840 --> 1:02:35.360 down there. Of course, you have to pay eight thousand 1:02:35.400 --> 1:02:37.440 dollars for a seat, but I know somebody bu bah bah. 1:02:37.480 --> 1:02:39.160 That's a whole nother problem. But of course you can't 1:02:39.200 --> 1:02:42.120 use the apps. You can't use the apps in the 1:02:42.200 --> 1:02:45.600 River's Casino. You cannot use the bet Rivers app in 1:02:45.680 --> 1:02:48.880 the River's Casino. Tell me why. You'll never explain it 1:02:48.880 --> 1:02:51.280 to me. It's ridiculous. You're the only one you can 1:02:51.320 --> 1:02:53.240 use down there, standal, you can't even use half the 1:02:53.280 --> 1:02:55.040 other one. It's really the whole thing is It just 1:02:55.120 --> 1:02:59.000 drives me absolutely mind boggling crazies. These causers making eight 1:02:59.120 --> 1:03:03.120 hundred billion on this damn National Football League. They need 1:03:03.200 --> 1:03:05.440 more money and they got to stick us with fifty 1:03:05.520 --> 1:03:08.000 second delay with YouTube. Give me a break. 1:03:08.720 --> 1:03:12.200 Cocoa Golf for the match six love, five to two 1:03:12.320 --> 1:03:14.560 her ad against Elena Ostapenko. 1:03:14.640 --> 1:03:18.640 Oh, Ostapenko just Withdrew. If I was on golf, That's 1:03:18.680 --> 1:03:19.800 exactly what would happen. 1:03:21.040 --> 1:03:24.440 Ostapenko, who beat the world, the former world number one. 1:03:25.000 --> 1:03:26.480 That was very nice, Todd. I just want to say 1:03:26.480 --> 1:03:28.000 this because Stevie was looking. I wonder he was going 1:03:28.080 --> 1:03:29.680 to say the same thing as I was. Believe it 1:03:29.800 --> 1:03:32.760 or not, And I know you won't believe this. YouTube 1:03:32.800 --> 1:03:36.640 TV is closer to real time than Cox Cable is 1:03:36.680 --> 1:03:37.960 here in Las Vegas. 1:03:38.000 --> 1:03:39.040 It's like fifty seconds. 1:03:39.120 --> 1:03:41.080 It's two. 1:03:41.200 --> 1:03:43.840 It's two players that I'm behind, not one, it's two. 1:03:44.440 --> 1:03:47.320 I feel like YouTube TV. I was like, oh my god, 1:03:47.640 --> 1:03:50.360 I'm only one point behind in this tennis match, not 1:03:50.480 --> 1:03:51.200 two and a half. 1:03:51.240 --> 1:03:53.240 And I'm meeting with these these providers are saying, well, 1:03:53.320 --> 1:03:54.720 we should be able to better whether the next play 1:03:54.800 --> 1:03:56.520 is going to be a passer or run. And it's like, 1:03:56.680 --> 1:03:58.880 how could the consumer ever be able to bet on 1:03:58.960 --> 1:04:01.280 the only time you can bet during TV timeouts, you're 1:04:01.320 --> 1:04:03.200 too far behind. 1:04:03.600 --> 1:04:06.320 And even then, Steve, if you don't hurry on the 1:04:06.360 --> 1:04:08.640 TV timeout, if you're a minute behind, that's right, that 1:04:08.680 --> 1:04:11.000 means you only have a minute during the commercial. You 1:04:11.000 --> 1:04:13.720 don't even know that the game has already started again. 1:04:13.920 --> 1:04:17.640 Yeah, it's it's tough, you know. It's almost like they 1:04:17.680 --> 1:04:18.600 don't want us betting. 1:04:19.760 --> 1:04:22.200 That is the goal I firmly believe of a lot 1:04:22.200 --> 1:04:24.840 of people with their apps on live betting, the number 1:04:24.880 --> 1:04:26.920 one goal is don't allow the square ball that wants 1:04:26.960 --> 1:04:29.320 to just lose his money to you. It's right, do 1:04:29.440 --> 1:04:32.840 everything possible. The line changes, like from minus one ten 1:04:32.880 --> 1:04:36.040 to minus one to fifteen and he's betting five dollars 1:04:36.080 --> 1:04:38.600 a line has changed. It's like, well, every time the 1:04:38.640 --> 1:04:41.240 line changes and line has changed, like, you can't take 1:04:41.280 --> 1:04:43.880 a ten dollars bet, you know, within some to Lawrence, 1:04:44.160 --> 1:04:44.920 come on, that's. 1:04:44.800 --> 1:04:47.200 One of my favorite Steve Fezik thing is the is 1:04:47.200 --> 1:04:49.320 like our number one rule is to not take money 1:04:49.320 --> 1:04:50.880 from these people, just like you were talking about like 1:04:50.880 --> 1:04:54.080 the cardinal rules on special teams that all these players 1:04:54.080 --> 1:04:55.360 don't abide by anymore. 1:04:55.600 --> 1:04:58.120 So the other rules real quickly are that that I, 1:04:58.480 --> 1:05:00.920 if you're punting the ball, all right, the defense is 1:05:00.960 --> 1:05:03.280 attempting to rough the kicker and jump off side. 1:05:03.320 --> 1:05:04.120 That's the first rule. 1:05:04.160 --> 1:05:06.160 Yeah, all right, But should the punter get the ball off. 1:05:06.320 --> 1:05:09.200 Now the punting team their return team. Their goal is 1:05:09.240 --> 1:05:11.680 to knock the ball into the end zone. But the 1:05:11.760 --> 1:05:14.720 returning team the kicker. His job is to attempt to 1:05:14.720 --> 1:05:17.880 field the ball inside the five yard line and fumble it. 1:05:17.880 --> 1:05:22.160 Always while while his teammates hold. If there is a return. 1:05:22.480 --> 1:05:25.720 The inside the five, the inside the five catching the ball. 1:05:26.200 --> 1:05:29.520 It drives me so crazy. The guys standing on the 1:05:29.600 --> 1:05:34.000 ten yard line, what you moved backwards and don't catch it? 1:05:34.160 --> 1:05:36.520 Yeah, and don't start on your own twenty five on 1:05:36.600 --> 1:05:39.520 a kickoff, go ahead and try to field it right 1:05:39.560 --> 1:05:42.280 on your goal line, kind of like be unclear whether 1:05:42.320 --> 1:05:43.840 you're in or out, and then return it to the 1:05:43.880 --> 1:05:46.240 twelve and then have cut back at the last second 1:05:46.280 --> 1:05:47.160 so you get a holding call. 1:05:47.200 --> 1:05:48.400 So you can start on your sixth. 1:05:48.440 --> 1:05:50.720 You're right too, that is the most egregious of all 1:05:50.720 --> 1:05:53.200 of them, because from the beginning, from the dawn of 1:05:53.280 --> 1:05:57.600 football time, that's been a fundamental right. You plant yourself 1:05:57.640 --> 1:05:59.520 on the ten and if the ball goes over your head, 1:05:59.680 --> 1:06:03.080 you let it go. How difficult is that? Apparently it's 1:06:03.160 --> 1:06:03.720 very doe. 1:06:03.560 --> 1:06:05.200 And the other team's just gonna knock it into the 1:06:05.280 --> 1:06:07.720 end zone. Even if the punter a dead digging mortar, 1:06:07.800 --> 1:06:09.840 kicks it to the two. They'll do your job for you. 1:06:11.600 --> 1:06:14.439 Because those guys, the Navy Seal team is running down 1:06:14.440 --> 1:06:17.320 on the pond coverage. They're going to run at the 1:06:17.360 --> 1:06:20.520 ball at five hundred miles an hour, and somehow. 1:06:22.720 --> 1:06:25.880 My teasers the same. It's the Steelers up to the 1:06:25.920 --> 1:06:29.680 eight and a half. It is the Skinnies down to 1:06:29.760 --> 1:06:35.960 basically just having to beat the Commandos. Excellent than you 1:06:36.080 --> 1:06:36.600 appreciate it. 1:06:36.880 --> 1:06:39.120 When Guild does it, he says, oh, great work. When 1:06:39.160 --> 1:06:42.160 I do it, oh you coughing? Well, fine, Stevie. And 1:06:42.200 --> 1:06:44.960 then don't copy any in game college basketball. In fact, 1:06:45.000 --> 1:06:46.800 I'll just give you the opposite side. How do you 1:06:46.920 --> 1:06:47.960 like them? Apples? 1:06:48.320 --> 1:06:49.640 By the way, if there was ever a must win 1:06:49.680 --> 1:06:51.880 situation in week one. This is it if Washington Camp 1:06:51.880 --> 1:06:55.919 beat Arizona the tanking Cardinals. Good God about Survivor, because 1:06:55.920 --> 1:06:57.960 we're gonna if you want to give a Survivor play, 1:06:57.960 --> 1:07:01.440 you can a couple points about this one. I've said 1:07:01.440 --> 1:07:03.840 this on a numbers game many times. I believe there's 1:07:03.880 --> 1:07:06.760 a point of redundancy in entries. So I only got 1:07:06.800 --> 1:07:08.840 five because I think if you go more than that, 1:07:09.240 --> 1:07:16.200 you're just playing it the same way, just doubled, just multiplied, 1:07:16.480 --> 1:07:18.400 So you're gonna lose picks at this at just a 1:07:18.480 --> 1:07:21.280 higher rate. The object is to get multiple entries by 1:07:21.320 --> 1:07:23.960 Thanksgiving in circa. But I don't believe it's a function 1:07:24.480 --> 1:07:26.800 of how many entries you start with. I believe it's 1:07:26.800 --> 1:07:29.000 a function of how you play the game. So I 1:07:29.240 --> 1:07:31.840 stayed at five. You brought up the fact that Washington 1:07:31.960 --> 1:07:34.240 is the optimal play week one. I think that's true 1:07:34.280 --> 1:07:36.600 because not only is it against Arizona, which is a 1:07:36.640 --> 1:07:38.640 strategy in and of itself to just fade the Cardinals 1:07:38.640 --> 1:07:41.800 every week, but there's probably not a natural place to 1:07:41.800 --> 1:07:46.520 play the Commanders later either, the question becomes what percentage 1:07:46.640 --> 1:07:49.240 of a pool of a Survivor pool do you believe 1:07:49.720 --> 1:07:52.600 will be on the Commanders. I'll give you forty percent 1:07:52.720 --> 1:07:53.439 over or under. 1:07:54.240 --> 1:07:57.880 My first number was forty percent because more people will 1:07:57.920 --> 1:07:59.280 inevitably take Baltimore. 1:07:59.280 --> 1:08:00.760 They're just because it's ten. 1:08:01.480 --> 1:08:02.480 Survive in advance. 1:08:02.680 --> 1:08:05.120 You know that's like, well, no one wants you know 1:08:05.160 --> 1:08:07.720 what you don't want to get you have if you 1:08:07.760 --> 1:08:09.600 have five entries, you don't want to shove with a 1:08:09.600 --> 1:08:12.000 seven point favorite and not put and not put that 1:08:12.080 --> 1:08:14.000 ten point You want to have some advance. 1:08:13.720 --> 1:08:19.479 One should be in there. The game theory of it being, well, 1:08:19.520 --> 1:08:21.680 if you know forty are going to be on this 1:08:21.720 --> 1:08:23.960 one team, you certainly don't want to have all of 1:08:23.960 --> 1:08:24.559 yours on it. 1:08:24.600 --> 1:08:26.840 Though, And there is the funky rule that I brought 1:08:26.880 --> 1:08:29.320 up with you about that you can you can enter 1:08:29.439 --> 1:08:34.040 Survivor up to Sunday, yeah, or Saturday night and the 1:08:34.600 --> 1:08:35.120 but you can. 1:08:34.960 --> 1:08:36.120 Play the Thursday games. 1:08:36.160 --> 1:08:38.840 So if should Kansas City, some people in heavily would 1:08:38.840 --> 1:08:40.800 just I'll just shove with Kansas City and put my 1:08:40.800 --> 1:08:43.000 ten entries in invite Lewis, I'll re enter like talking 1:08:43.000 --> 1:08:45.439 about the week one, yeah, Daniel and the Grano style 1:08:45.439 --> 1:08:49.439 I read buy so because that normally there wouldn't be 1:08:49.479 --> 1:08:51.759 that many people taking Kansas City is not an optimal 1:08:51.800 --> 1:08:53.760 player or anything close to. But because it's Thursday night, 1:08:53.800 --> 1:08:56.000 you're going to see that. So should Kansas City lose 1:08:56.439 --> 1:08:59.960 to Detroit, yeah, I am compelled to immediately enter two 1:09:00.080 --> 1:09:02.840 at times because now I'm getting a ten percent overlaly, 1:09:02.920 --> 1:09:04.880 not from Circa, there's not gonna be an overlay, but 1:09:04.960 --> 1:09:07.120 from all the people that dunked off their chips with 1:09:07.200 --> 1:09:07.839 the strategy. 1:09:07.880 --> 1:09:10.120 So you if Kansasity wins, you will not play Survivor 1:09:10.160 --> 1:09:10.479 at all. 1:09:11.000 --> 1:09:12.760 If I play, I have to recognize I'm paying like 1:09:12.760 --> 1:09:15.160 a three percent rake. I say, abe, I'll still play, 1:09:15.160 --> 1:09:16.720 but I'm playing. But I'm playing with. 1:09:16.760 --> 1:09:18.840 The rake because it's because they're one notes. 1:09:18.840 --> 1:09:20.479 It's almost like a free throw shooting contest where we 1:09:20.520 --> 1:09:23.479 all shoot like seventy five percent and I'm gonna have 1:09:23.479 --> 1:09:25.240 to play against ten percent of the group that made 1:09:25.240 --> 1:09:26.040 their first free throw. 1:09:26.120 --> 1:09:27.240 Well, it is the way I would put it. 1:09:27.280 --> 1:09:29.479 That's your mathematical brain kicking in. I think there's a 1:09:29.520 --> 1:09:32.160 lot of people who are going to play Detroit right 1:09:32.840 --> 1:09:35.040 hoping for the Detroit win and if they lose. If 1:09:35.080 --> 1:09:37.920 Kansas City wins, they're just going to re up and buy. 1:09:38.680 --> 1:09:41.120 I'll put the over under and how many people played Detroit. 1:09:41.200 --> 1:09:44.599 If there's I would I would say six. You think 1:09:44.640 --> 1:09:46.280 it's that few that will play it down. 1:09:46.160 --> 1:09:47.559 I'll go six. You want to go over under? 1:09:47.680 --> 1:09:48.040 Go over? 1:09:48.479 --> 1:09:48.719 Really? 1:09:48.920 --> 1:09:49.160 Dinner? 1:09:49.200 --> 1:09:52.679 Oh yeah, dinner, dinner, dinner? How many is like dinner? 1:09:52.680 --> 1:09:54.960 I'll just use my points, I'll just the other way. 1:09:55.000 --> 1:09:57.240 There isn't there is. There is an example though, with 1:09:57.400 --> 1:10:01.240 when you play Horse against stevezi Gill and you're standing 1:10:01.280 --> 1:10:04.400 at about eighteen feet out and just banking endless bankers 1:10:04.439 --> 1:10:07.040 off of them. You can give them any advantage possible. 1:10:07.200 --> 1:10:09.439 You can give him a twenty five percent overlay. They're 1:10:09.479 --> 1:10:11.280 never going to beat you in Horse if you can 1:10:11.439 --> 1:10:13.479 endlessly hit bank shots from eighteen feet. 1:10:13.560 --> 1:10:16.479 So for like two years I heard Todd tell me 1:10:16.479 --> 1:10:18.160 about what a star he was and how he was 1:10:18.200 --> 1:10:21.360 the Jewish Jordan. Yeah, And you know, for all this talk, 1:10:21.560 --> 1:10:23.800 I don't see it. So we play Horse and I 1:10:23.840 --> 1:10:27.559 don't like. I don't own a basketball, so I haven't 1:10:27.600 --> 1:10:29.240 shot like in twenty years, And I got an ho 1:10:29.439 --> 1:10:31.559 r on him, and I can see the like beads 1:10:31.560 --> 1:10:34.479 of perspiration he has to go to is like, and 1:10:34.520 --> 1:10:36.320 he knows I'm an analytics guy. So it's like, I'll 1:10:36.360 --> 1:10:39.840 just shoot the sixteen eighteen foot Jumperveesig never shoots that 1:10:39.960 --> 1:10:42.840 because he only shot threes, so he rolled me. 1:10:42.920 --> 1:10:44.639 Then let me just ask you one. I won't hold 1:10:44.680 --> 1:10:46.160 you all to a Survivor pick because some of us 1:10:46.200 --> 1:10:48.840 have multiple entries. But if I said to you, you 1:10:48.920 --> 1:10:52.840 couldn't take any of the top four dog any of 1:10:52.840 --> 1:10:55.040 the top four favorites in Survivor. So not the Ravens, 1:10:55.040 --> 1:10:58.559 not the Commanders, not the Vikings. And what's the fourth one? 1:10:59.360 --> 1:11:02.760 Not the not the uh there's one other that's like six, oh, 1:11:02.800 --> 1:11:07.240 the Chiefs. If what would be what would be the 1:11:07.280 --> 1:11:10.479 team besides those four that you might play on a 1:11:10.520 --> 1:11:14.799 Survivor entry. I said the Broncos, but the Eagles. 1:11:14.800 --> 1:11:17.400 I know you need the Eagles probably, I said the Broncos. 1:11:18.720 --> 1:11:21.920 I don't have one. I'll say this, yeah, a bold prediction. 1:11:22.320 --> 1:11:25.240 Tampa could could be Minnesota Tampa easily. 1:11:25.280 --> 1:11:26.160 That's that's your favorite. 1:11:26.320 --> 1:11:28.240 That might be the next question that's at the end 1:11:28.240 --> 1:11:31.400 of the show. But yeah, aren't it. That's okay, Well, 1:11:31.479 --> 1:11:33.000 let's get to those final two questions. 1:11:33.040 --> 1:11:35.000 Shout Seattle, by the way, that would be my pick. 1:11:35.120 --> 1:11:38.479 Seattle all right. So then the final two questions, as 1:11:38.479 --> 1:11:41.599 always with the end of every megapod, which Stevie just 1:11:41.600 --> 1:11:43.920 just sort of give a portend of, which is which 1:11:43.920 --> 1:11:45.840 big big favorite is the most likely to lose out right? 1:11:45.880 --> 1:11:48.000 Which game do you want no part of? Which is 1:11:48.000 --> 1:11:50.519 an interesting question on week one more than any because 1:11:50.520 --> 1:11:52.400 I think there's a ton of them. But which big 1:11:52.400 --> 1:11:54.760 favorite most legally lose out right? You say THEA to 1:11:54.840 --> 1:11:57.280 Tampa Bay because you think we're underrating Tampa Bay in 1:11:57.320 --> 1:11:57.719 some way. 1:11:58.200 --> 1:12:00.400 I know, I think I just think Minnesoa it could 1:12:00.479 --> 1:12:02.599 it was a blow a slightly below average team by 1:12:02.720 --> 1:12:05.120 and and and and I think they didn't get any better. 1:12:05.280 --> 1:12:08.200 Yeah, so the wheels could come off this year. 1:12:08.200 --> 1:12:10.759 The wheels could come off, doesn't mean they'll come off. 1:12:11.320 --> 1:12:14.519 Yeah, Gus, they're a high variance team. They're they're They're 1:12:14.560 --> 1:12:16.439 the kind of team where Kirk Cousins can throw you 1:12:16.479 --> 1:12:19.200 two pick sixes or fumble the ball when he's back 1:12:19.200 --> 1:12:21.240 in the in the in the pocket, and of course 1:12:21.760 --> 1:12:27.240 turnovers are what make NFL upsets. So you've got mister 1:12:27.560 --> 1:12:29.880 Cousins in the pocket, they striped, sack them two times, 1:12:30.200 --> 1:12:33.519 and you win the game. That's how an NFL upset happens, 1:12:33.600 --> 1:12:35.920 and they're a high variance team for that. Sure they 1:12:35.920 --> 1:12:38.160 can look great, but they can also make all kinds 1:12:38.160 --> 1:12:41.960 of mistakes. With mister Curtis's Cousins discuss did you. 1:12:41.920 --> 1:12:46.559 See quarterbacks on Netflix? Outstanding? Yeah, that was It's so 1:12:46.680 --> 1:12:47.840 much better than hard knock. 1:12:48.000 --> 1:12:50.519 So analytical. I had no idea these guys had to 1:12:50.560 --> 1:12:54.439 study so much. No wonder like these these quarterbacks like 1:12:54.840 --> 1:12:57.280 fail miserably. You know that, don't put in the hours 1:12:57.320 --> 1:12:57.959 with the playbook. 1:12:58.040 --> 1:13:00.000 It's so that's it, right, it's it was soot. 1:13:00.080 --> 1:13:00.799 I disagree. 1:13:00.880 --> 1:13:03.280 Cousins takes Tuesdays off to go to the library in 1:13:03.280 --> 1:13:05.280 the middle of the season. Tuesdays, I do no football. 1:13:05.320 --> 1:13:07.120 I just go to the library and I read books 1:13:07.160 --> 1:13:07.880 during the season. 1:13:07.880 --> 1:13:10.240 What is this? That's true? He did, and he was 1:13:10.280 --> 1:13:11.439 so nice in the libraries. 1:13:11.439 --> 1:13:13.280 What he wasn't out clubbing until three am? 1:13:13.520 --> 1:13:15.360 Yeah, he was so polite. But the point I was 1:13:15.360 --> 1:13:17.400 trying to make about that is, like the fight, they 1:13:17.520 --> 1:13:19.920 do a great job of going through all these guys seasons, right, 1:13:19.920 --> 1:13:23.040 whether it's Mary Odor Mahomes. But in the case of Cousins, 1:13:23.080 --> 1:13:26.400 like we forget maybe we don't, but I forgot how 1:13:26.800 --> 1:13:31.040 unbelievable that Viking season was, like the nature of something 1:13:31.080 --> 1:13:34.160 that that Buffalo game will will endure forever. 1:13:35.080 --> 1:13:36.320 How about thirty three? Nothing? 1:13:36.360 --> 1:13:39.000 How about thirty and the comeback and the greatest comeback 1:13:39.040 --> 1:13:40.040 in the history of the NFL. 1:13:40.080 --> 1:13:42.439 Oh cool was the Vikings coach? He's you know, I 1:13:42.680 --> 1:13:44.160 didn't call that quarterback sneak? 1:13:44.240 --> 1:13:48.360 You fumbled? Yeah, you might want to. He was so controlled. 1:13:48.400 --> 1:13:50.439 I was like you could just see me like like 1:13:50.720 --> 1:13:53.000 internet fasick would have like benched him for the rest 1:13:53.040 --> 1:13:53.479 of the year. 1:13:53.520 --> 1:13:56.040 Therenet pick I should really ask that question. Well, just 1:13:56.080 --> 1:13:58.320 want because I asked you about Brad Powers earlier. You 1:13:58.360 --> 1:14:00.280 are such a knife said this to you before. You're 1:14:00.400 --> 1:14:03.040 such a nice guy in real life, such a smart guy. 1:14:03.320 --> 1:14:06.320 What happens to you on the Internet? Do you have 1:14:06.439 --> 1:14:09.680 this inside of you? What is this DNA strain that 1:14:09.880 --> 1:14:13.000 makes you want to police the gambling world and become 1:14:13.280 --> 1:14:15.160 that hate able on Twitter? 1:14:15.280 --> 1:14:19.040 Why I gave my brother Andy access, so it's him, 1:14:19.120 --> 1:14:22.840 it's him bright No, no, no, no, it's just a 1:14:22.920 --> 1:14:25.840 it's a flaw. It's a flaw. I got improved. I'm 1:14:26.560 --> 1:14:27.800 this is this is what. 1:14:28.000 --> 1:14:29.320 Todd has always said is about this is what we 1:14:29.439 --> 1:14:30.840 like about you, that you're able to be. 1:14:31.280 --> 1:14:34.280 It goes back to dungeons and dragons, the dungeons and 1:14:34.360 --> 1:14:38.000 Dragons from the eighties. Yeah, and you know, touching boobies. 1:14:38.400 --> 1:14:41.479 That's what all this stuff goes back to. And if 1:14:41.479 --> 1:14:43.800 we want to get into a deep psychological discussion, we 1:14:43.840 --> 1:14:46.800 all have our weaknesses. I obviously have more than most, 1:14:47.160 --> 1:14:50.000 but my friend Stevie probably was, you know, very into 1:14:50.040 --> 1:14:52.960 the dungeons and dragons and maybe not getting that touches 1:14:53.000 --> 1:14:55.360 my boobies as possible. So he has to he has 1:14:55.400 --> 1:14:57.200 to tell everyone he's the greatest of all. 1:14:57.360 --> 1:14:59.679 You know, people say I got rejected in high school, 1:14:59.680 --> 1:15:02.600 like like, that's like you have you have to like 1:15:02.640 --> 1:15:04.680 get to the plate, you have to swing, you know, 1:15:04.720 --> 1:15:05.560 to get rejected. 1:15:06.640 --> 1:15:09.160 Not even that far, so, Todd, you're saying that the 1:15:09.640 --> 1:15:14.160 that the less so touching of boobies is inversely functional 1:15:14.200 --> 1:15:16.160 to gambling, brash gambling Twitter. 1:15:16.240 --> 1:15:18.240 This is not really about Steve. I'm just kidding. I'm 1:15:18.280 --> 1:15:21.120 kidding about Stevie. I love Stevie, but I do think 1:15:21.160 --> 1:15:25.120 there is definitely a strain of you know, guy on 1:15:25.280 --> 1:15:28.519 the internet who who has figured out that you know, 1:15:28.680 --> 1:15:31.559 fourth and nine is better than fourth and three, and 1:15:31.600 --> 1:15:33.920 he has to try to tell everybody. And the reasoning 1:15:34.240 --> 1:15:36.960 behind that is not that he just needs the information himself. 1:15:37.160 --> 1:15:39.400 But it comes back to what happened, you know, as 1:15:39.439 --> 1:15:41.200 a sixteen year old when there was a girl he 1:15:41.320 --> 1:15:43.120 liked and he was too scared to go up to her. 1:15:43.320 --> 1:15:47.400 But that's just a armchair psychology. 1:15:46.840 --> 1:15:49.080 Who was self aware to go after her. 1:15:49.120 --> 1:15:50.759 By the way, I seem to get everybody in trouble, 1:15:50.760 --> 1:15:53.200 you know, like Will Hill comes with this beautiful family. 1:15:52.920 --> 1:15:53.559 To Las Vegas. 1:15:53.560 --> 1:15:55.240 I get him kicked out of it because you know, 1:15:55.280 --> 1:15:57.200 it's a problem I have. 1:15:57.400 --> 1:16:01.519 That is awesome. Uh think before we conclude this, get 1:16:01.520 --> 1:16:03.760 the last two questions together wrapped up. You just said 1:16:03.760 --> 1:16:05.760 something there are also that trigger something todd which you 1:16:05.800 --> 1:16:08.479 said fourth and nine or whatever, first and goal at 1:16:08.479 --> 1:16:11.639 the ten? Do we agree that there is some sort 1:16:11.640 --> 1:16:13.800 of in game opportunity if you can get it right 1:16:13.840 --> 1:16:15.679 there that it is much more difficult? 1:16:15.880 --> 1:16:18.880 I said that that was yours. My favorite thing. That 1:16:19.120 --> 1:16:21.200 was the first and goal at the nine or ten 1:16:21.760 --> 1:16:24.479 is extremely difficult to get the ball in in college, 1:16:24.520 --> 1:16:26.920 but even more so in the NFL. And I think 1:16:26.960 --> 1:16:29.559 that for end game, you know now, And that's a 1:16:29.600 --> 1:16:31.800 situation where you can't really do it at commercial unless 1:16:31.800 --> 1:16:33.559 the commercial happened right when it was first and goal 1:16:33.720 --> 1:16:36.160 right ten. Right, But if you can rush and get 1:16:36.200 --> 1:16:39.439 that in somehow first and you like the other side anyways, 1:16:39.479 --> 1:16:42.320 first and goal at the ten is very difficult to 1:16:42.320 --> 1:16:42.720 get it in. 1:16:42.840 --> 1:16:44.880 And if the other team has this is a high 1:16:44.920 --> 1:16:47.240 level analytics. And I hope some NFL team is listening. 1:16:47.280 --> 1:16:50.479 If another team is like second and three from the fifteen, 1:16:50.800 --> 1:16:53.280 you should jump off sides automatically. You should let them 1:16:53.280 --> 1:16:53.840 go to the ten. 1:16:54.000 --> 1:16:57.160 Oh now that now, what are the chances of a 1:16:57.240 --> 1:16:59.240 team you'll never get ever getting there? 1:16:59.360 --> 1:17:03.160 Oh, they'll do it, Yeah, eventually, it'll it'll they'll do it. 1:17:03.280 --> 1:17:04.960 Yes, you said this. 1:17:05.160 --> 1:17:08.240 He made jump off sides on purpose. 1:17:08.320 --> 1:17:09.480 I think you're right, Will. 1:17:10.479 --> 1:17:12.360 In the four minute drill, when the team has the 1:17:12.360 --> 1:17:15.439 ball second and two, like the team recognized that they're 1:17:15.439 --> 1:17:18.400 just gonna run off another ninety seconds, just just jump 1:17:18.479 --> 1:17:20.599 off side, give them the first down and now we'll 1:17:20.600 --> 1:17:21.080 stop them. 1:17:21.000 --> 1:17:21.479 When they run. 1:17:21.560 --> 1:17:23.360 I think Will is right right. But Ravens did do 1:17:23.400 --> 1:17:24.240 it one time, I. 1:17:24.160 --> 1:17:27.120 Believe, Yeah, Gebe when I brought this first and goal 1:17:27.160 --> 1:17:28.800 thing up at the ten Last year you said, I 1:17:28.840 --> 1:17:31.240 said teams should try to get the other team at 1:17:31.240 --> 1:17:33.519 first and ten, and you said they're going to start 1:17:33.520 --> 1:17:35.280 doing it just and you didn't say the thing about 1:17:35.280 --> 1:17:37.320 the off sides. Of the off sides, that's a brilliant idea, 1:17:37.600 --> 1:17:39.960 actually to jump off side from the fifteen or the 1:17:40.000 --> 1:17:41.080 fourteen on second and. 1:17:41.000 --> 1:17:43.760 Three, just like on the first down play update, you 1:17:43.800 --> 1:17:45.280 don't want to gain eleven yards, you want to gain 1:17:45.400 --> 1:17:47.640 seven or eight. It's better to gain seven or eight 1:17:47.680 --> 1:17:49.040 yards on first down than eleven. 1:17:49.120 --> 1:17:52.560 It is so much better as an optimal strategy to 1:17:52.640 --> 1:17:54.720 jump off sides there. It's it's almost like, as you 1:17:54.760 --> 1:17:56.720 say it, it's like such a no brainer. And yet 1:17:56.760 --> 1:17:59.559 we've been locked into this way of thinking forever. It's 1:17:59.600 --> 1:18:02.160 always done this way, so it's always gonna be this way. 1:18:02.200 --> 1:18:04.920 But it's so true established the run, but big established it. 1:18:05.000 --> 1:18:06.840 If that becomes a thing that the offense can just 1:18:06.840 --> 1:18:08.760 be smart enough to decline the penalties, which I mean, 1:18:08.800 --> 1:18:10.160 you're getting to another level of things. 1:18:10.160 --> 1:18:11.479 Why you need a good you need to be a 1:18:11.520 --> 1:18:14.800 good actor, and you ahead that's always going like like 1:18:15.080 --> 1:18:16.880 you're jumping outside to do it again. 1:18:17.040 --> 1:18:20.559 Yeah, what Steve said, This is the point I wanted 1:18:20.560 --> 1:18:23.160 to do where And Steve's right. We watched so many 1:18:23.200 --> 1:18:26.439 more games than these guys. These guys are busy doing 1:18:26.680 --> 1:18:29.479 X and O, and they're thinking about, Hey, Jim, did 1:18:29.479 --> 1:18:31.360 you get the technique on the defensive end. You know 1:18:31.400 --> 1:18:33.600 he's not getting down in the stands good enough. We 1:18:34.000 --> 1:18:35.720 gotta do that or else he's gonna get killed by 1:18:35.720 --> 1:18:38.040 the left tackle. You know, that's what they're working about. 1:18:38.160 --> 1:18:42.080 That we watch eight billion games. Fact, I would be 1:18:42.160 --> 1:18:44.519 so far as to tell you if I never saw 1:18:44.560 --> 1:18:47.519 a team play, I don't know anything about the teams. 1:18:47.680 --> 1:18:50.679 But I've watched two hundred college football games, and now 1:18:50.720 --> 1:18:52.439 this is the two hundred and first I know nothing 1:18:52.479 --> 1:18:55.200 about the teams. I would have a better chance of 1:18:55.439 --> 1:18:58.320 in game winning than a person who knows everything about 1:18:58.360 --> 1:19:00.080 those teams, but both watching. 1:18:59.800 --> 1:19:02.400 Those the most extreme example, in a high total game, 1:19:02.400 --> 1:19:03.640 I know this is ridiculous. 1:19:03.680 --> 1:19:05.040 There's two minutes to play, you're tied. 1:19:05.080 --> 1:19:07.719 You got fourth and goal from the one I would 1:19:07.760 --> 1:19:10.479 almost rather take a knee to kick a field goal. 1:19:11.479 --> 1:19:12.160 So think about it. 1:19:12.160 --> 1:19:12.960 Wait, say again, So. 1:19:15.160 --> 1:19:15.960 It's twenty seven. 1:19:16.040 --> 1:19:18.599 All I have fourth and goal on the one yard line, 1:19:18.600 --> 1:19:21.200 there's two minutes to play. I have two choices. I 1:19:21.200 --> 1:19:23.559 can take a knee or kick a field goal. I 1:19:23.600 --> 1:19:26.120 don't know which is right. So obviously what I'm saying 1:19:26.200 --> 1:19:27.839 is you clear, we have to go for the touchdown 1:19:27.920 --> 1:19:30.920 because you couldn't get the touchdown sixty you know, percent 1:19:30.960 --> 1:19:32.880 of the time. But even if you don't make it, 1:19:33.439 --> 1:19:35.200 kicking the field goal is worthless. If I'm up three 1:19:35.240 --> 1:19:36.280 and the other team is the ball. 1:19:36.800 --> 1:19:37.559 I see what you're saying. 1:19:37.600 --> 1:19:39.680 I'm close to fifty to fifty. If I stick you 1:19:39.720 --> 1:19:42.000 on the one, I'm winning, right, I am? 1:19:42.320 --> 1:19:42.599 I am? 1:19:42.680 --> 1:19:43.360 I had at that. 1:19:43.439 --> 1:19:46.240 You're not saying it's logical. What you're saying is that 1:19:46.240 --> 1:19:50.479 that that percentage wise, it's almost like keep taking a 1:19:50.560 --> 1:19:52.679 knee is almost as good. Yeah. 1:19:53.760 --> 1:19:55.519 It just shows what a donk move it is to 1:19:55.600 --> 1:19:56.280 kick the field goal. 1:19:56.360 --> 1:19:57.880 Yeah, I'm talking about this one. 1:19:57.920 --> 1:19:58.160 Faz. 1:19:58.640 --> 1:20:00.800 You're down three with four men to go, you score 1:20:00.800 --> 1:20:02.800 a touchdown, you kick the extra point to go up four, 1:20:02.880 --> 1:20:04.280 or was you rather take a knee and be up three? 1:20:04.320 --> 1:20:06.960 I know it's crazy, but is that a reasonable question? 1:20:07.240 --> 1:20:09.040 You know, it's actually a reasonable question because when you 1:20:09.120 --> 1:20:10.840 go up four, then the other team knows exactly what 1:20:10.880 --> 1:20:13.080 they need. If you're only up three, how often do 1:20:13.120 --> 1:20:15.080 you see that, Like a team's a team's down three 1:20:15.200 --> 1:20:17.479 or two months to go, and they matriculate down trying 1:20:17.479 --> 1:20:19.439 to get in the field goal range, right, and so 1:20:19.479 --> 1:20:22.000 they're either going to tie you or they're gonna lose 1:20:22.040 --> 1:20:24.000 to you. But if you're up four, uh oh, here 1:20:24.040 --> 1:20:26.519 comes the hook and lateral and everything, the four downs 1:20:26.560 --> 1:20:29.559 and all that crap, and then ultimately they wind up winning. 1:20:30.520 --> 1:20:35.760 That's fascinating. Yeah, we were solving all the football's problems here. 1:20:36.360 --> 1:20:39.960 If only I would love to see some team do that. 1:20:40.280 --> 1:20:42.840 We talk about what people's heads would explode, but it 1:20:42.920 --> 1:20:46.360 makes sense. Well, well, same question, he said. Fez said, 1:20:46.400 --> 1:20:49.760 Minnesota biggest favorite, likely lose out right, You say. 1:20:50.400 --> 1:20:53.000 Biggest favorite, like I'm gonna go. I'll throw a little 1:20:53.000 --> 1:20:54.400 curveball at the Kansasy. 1:20:54.439 --> 1:20:58.080 They have all sorts of issues on defense now, cluster injuries, holdouts. 1:20:59.000 --> 1:21:01.000 These first games, they it's a mixed bag. They can 1:21:01.040 --> 1:21:02.519 be a little wonky. Where the team is tight, they 1:21:02.560 --> 1:21:05.680 get their rings. Maybe they're distracted, I'll say, Detroit, you. 1:21:05.640 --> 1:21:08.160 Know these teams getting the rings though have kicked. But 1:21:08.200 --> 1:21:10.960 like the past twenty fifth every time, every time, like 1:21:11.000 --> 1:21:13.639 the money comes against them. Yeah, and it's coming against 1:21:13.760 --> 1:21:15.360 Kansas City or and then they just whack. 1:21:15.479 --> 1:21:17.519 Didn't used to be that Wams got killed last year, 1:21:17.560 --> 1:21:19.920 though that's true. Rams did get killed. So he says 1:21:20.000 --> 1:21:21.120 Kansas City Todd. 1:21:21.760 --> 1:21:24.240 I mean, just to be a contrarian here, I don't 1:21:24.280 --> 1:21:25.960 know if you'll count this as a big favorite, but 1:21:26.200 --> 1:21:28.600 they're five and a half. The Jaguars are five and 1:21:28.600 --> 1:21:31.679 a half against the Colts, and I wouldn't be super 1:21:31.840 --> 1:21:35.320 duper duper shocked to see the Colts at home. You know, 1:21:35.400 --> 1:21:38.280 this new offensive coordinator worked with Jalen Hurts and now 1:21:38.280 --> 1:21:41.040 he's got another running quarterback. Maybe they could, you know, 1:21:41.720 --> 1:21:44.120 stir something up and figure something out. 1:21:45.240 --> 1:21:49.439 I am going to say the Minnesota Vikings, just for 1:21:49.479 --> 1:21:52.080 the reasons we stated like that'd be the one where 1:21:52.200 --> 1:21:55.160 would you be like completely shocked at the Vikings Layden 1:21:55.200 --> 1:21:57.400 egg and then it was a tight game at the end, 1:21:57.400 --> 1:22:00.800 and then they need to score Laden Cousin does something bad. 1:22:00.880 --> 1:22:03.200 I really wouldn't. It wouldn't shock anybody, I don't think. 1:22:03.960 --> 1:22:06.080 Last question, and there's a lot of answers to this. 1:22:06.120 --> 1:22:08.639 I think this week, if you lived in a bizarre world, 1:22:08.640 --> 1:22:10.320 and you had to bet a side on each and 1:22:10.320 --> 1:22:13.120 every one of these games in week one, all sixteen 1:22:13.200 --> 1:22:15.280 but one. You get a free pass. You don't have 1:22:15.320 --> 1:22:17.320 to touch one of them. What's the game? You want 1:22:17.400 --> 1:22:18.840 no part of whatsoever on the side. 1:22:18.880 --> 1:22:20.519 I'm gonna give you two of them, Okay, all right, 1:22:20.600 --> 1:22:22.640 And this is gonna be a different answer than you're 1:22:22.640 --> 1:22:23.719 gonna get all year long. 1:22:23.800 --> 1:22:24.160 Okay. 1:22:24.280 --> 1:22:27.240 As a professional, better, I focus on spreads that matter, 1:22:27.320 --> 1:22:29.320 all right. So when the spread is like around one 1:22:29.400 --> 1:22:31.920 or two, I'm teasing right. If it seems like an 1:22:31.920 --> 1:22:34.040 eight point favorite, I'm teasing it down. If it's around 1:22:34.080 --> 1:22:35.800 the three or the seven, I'm trying to get the 1:22:35.800 --> 1:22:37.280 best of the number. And like a lot of these 1:22:37.280 --> 1:22:39.880 games qualify across the board where there's like there's no 1:22:40.000 --> 1:22:42.400 way I cannot bet the Buffalo Jets game because I'm 1:22:42.400 --> 1:22:44.200 either looking to late two and a half or take three. 1:22:44.600 --> 1:22:48.240 Same with Cincinnati Cleveland. However, there's two games lined on five. 1:22:48.880 --> 1:22:51.240 Who cares if I get miss four and a half 1:22:51.320 --> 1:22:53.280 or miss four even or plus five and a half 1:22:53.360 --> 1:22:55.960 or even plus six. None of those numbers are really 1:22:56.000 --> 1:22:59.000 worth very much. And so because of that, Jacksonville, Indy 1:22:59.320 --> 1:23:02.080 and the Rams. Eh, you know I'm not gonna I'm 1:23:02.080 --> 1:23:04.240 not gonna be able to steal. It's very unlike I'm 1:23:04.240 --> 1:23:07.160 gonna be able to steal win with good rogue shopping. 1:23:07.640 --> 1:23:09.680 That You're right, that is a answer we will not 1:23:09.760 --> 1:23:12.880 get all year Loan, Will, Will Hill, everybody from Fox. 1:23:13.240 --> 1:23:14.000 I love saying that. 1:23:14.040 --> 1:23:16.960 Now I will go Ravens Texans. 1:23:17.000 --> 1:23:18.559 I want no part of Stroud on the road in 1:23:18.600 --> 1:23:20.599 Baltimore or Baltimore team that might be improved, but I'm 1:23:20.600 --> 1:23:22.959 not looking away double digits, especially a team that's retinkered 1:23:22.960 --> 1:23:25.839 their offense. Maybe there's certa adjustment period. So Ravens Texans 1:23:25.840 --> 1:23:26.720 pretty easy pass for me. 1:23:26.800 --> 1:23:28.720 Yeah. By the way, with the Ravens and Survivor like 1:23:28.760 --> 1:23:30.639 it just because it's the top favorite, I think there's 1:23:30.640 --> 1:23:33.000 actually a justification if you don't think the Ravens, like 1:23:33.200 --> 1:23:35.040 Will just said, if you don't think the Ravens are 1:23:35.080 --> 1:23:37.920 gonna be all that spectacular, maybe you do just play 1:23:37.920 --> 1:23:40.439 them also as a as a team you just don't 1:23:40.439 --> 1:23:42.879 want to have to deal with later against the Texans. 1:23:42.920 --> 1:23:46.840 Todd, I don't know about this Rams Seahawks game. I mean, 1:23:47.160 --> 1:23:49.960 last time we checked in with the Rams. They were 1:23:50.000 --> 1:23:52.680 just in complete disarray. And what's going to be down 1:23:52.720 --> 1:23:55.040 to the new thing? Does Cooper Cup have ham strings? 1:23:55.080 --> 1:23:58.000 Does he not have ham strings? We're not really sure. 1:23:58.280 --> 1:24:00.320 Pretty sure, I'm pretty sure he has. 1:24:00.360 --> 1:24:03.400 He still, Yeah, I've had some bad hamstring before. That's 1:24:03.400 --> 1:24:05.559 some bad stuff. But no, I don't. I don't. I'm 1:24:05.600 --> 1:24:08.040 not sure about what this Rams team is at all. 1:24:08.200 --> 1:24:09.840 And I think there's a lot of variants of what 1:24:09.880 --> 1:24:11.040 they could theoretically be. 1:24:11.360 --> 1:24:14.160 I could pick a bunch here, I could pick Dolphins, Chargers, 1:24:14.200 --> 1:24:18.719 I could pick Bengals, Browns. Ultimately, I'm gonna go Packers Bears. 1:24:18.760 --> 1:24:21.280 I think that's the one where there is no outcome. 1:24:21.320 --> 1:24:24.679 I would be surprised by none. Packers blowout, Packers close 1:24:24.680 --> 1:24:25.679 to wind, Bears blow. 1:24:25.479 --> 1:24:26.960 Out, but the Bears still suck Hill. 1:24:27.200 --> 1:24:30.120 They all could suck. 1:24:29.160 --> 1:24:32.679 Bears fourteen to ten. It's fourth and two twenty two 1:24:32.760 --> 1:24:36.400 seconds left. Here, Jordan Love inside the Bear's ten yard line, 1:24:36.400 --> 1:24:38.840 at the eight yard line, back to pass. He rolls 1:24:38.880 --> 1:24:42.439 to the He's inside the five. What football the Bears 1:24:42.479 --> 1:24:45.120 have it? The Bears cover and Stevie goes down. 1:24:45.280 --> 1:24:46.800 Wait, wait, there's a flag on the. 1:24:48.160 --> 1:24:50.400 It's a flag. I think that's the appropriate way to 1:24:50.479 --> 1:24:55.480 end this. Appreciated guys. Week one always fun. The megapot 1:24:55.520 --> 1:24:58.800 is back Steve Feszick only back to back, Hilton Super 1:24:58.800 --> 1:25:01.400 Contest Champion. Thank you for doing this. We'll do it again, honored. 1:25:01.439 --> 1:25:04.680 Thank you my man. Uh and uh first time on 1:25:04.720 --> 1:25:07.640 the show. Will Hill from Fox Sports, How good does 1:25:07.680 --> 1:25:10.559 that sound? Will you like that? Fox Sports? Will Hill? 1:25:10.800 --> 1:25:12.240 I get used to it. I like it all right. 1:25:12.280 --> 1:25:16.959 The Bear Podcast, that's what it is, The Bear. 1:25:16.800 --> 1:25:19.040 Podcast, Bear Bets Podcast. 1:25:19.479 --> 1:25:23.479 Okay, Thursdays, the Bear Bets Podcast. And yeah, Will, by 1:25:23.520 --> 1:25:24.880 the way, for those who didn't get it, because I 1:25:24.880 --> 1:25:27.040 didn't get it out of him. He's like the funniest 1:25:27.080 --> 1:25:29.040 human being alive. So we promise to get more funny 1:25:29.040 --> 1:25:31.080 out of him. Coming up, Todd wish to have everybody 1:25:31.080 --> 1:25:33.519 from his mom's cork attic. Thank you Todd? Or do 1:25:33.600 --> 1:25:36.240 we cut off his mic? He's doing the mouth thing 1:25:36.640 --> 1:25:39.960 like he doesn't want to talk to I wish Dev, 1:25:40.000 --> 1:25:42.840 who could be found on on Twitter at t wish Dev, 1:25:43.080 --> 1:25:45.880 Staru show Times, docu series Action for which he still 1:25:45.880 --> 1:25:49.880 gets recognized. By the way, everywhere we go buffet, there's 1:25:49.920 --> 1:25:51.639 like two women that are like, ain't you the guy 1:25:51.720 --> 1:25:56.439 from Action? And Todd's like, I sure am, thanks for noticing. 1:25:56.680 --> 1:25:59.599 Would you like my autogram? Thank you? Todd. 1:25:59.760 --> 1:26:01.679 Lady was telling me I should be dating Diana. 1:26:02.439 --> 1:26:04.280 Yeah, you were with Deanna. They noticed them. Are you 1:26:04.280 --> 1:26:07.439 guys still together? It's a beautiful thing. Thank you all 1:26:07.439 --> 1:26:09.720 for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Week one 1:26:09.760 --> 1:26:21.680 of the National Football League