Speaker 1: Check it down man, Tuesday morning, September fifth, twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: It is the Beating the Book podcast Megapod week number
Speaker 1: one of the NFL season. Our thirteenth year doing the megapod.
Speaker 1: Thirteen we were podcasting before podcasting was cool. Thank you
Speaker 1: for all your loyalty through the years doing this. It's
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander. Let me introduce the two staples of the show.
Speaker 1: I'm at the D Bar Canada, at the D here
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. Two staples of the show this year.
Speaker 1: One from his mom's cork Attic you know him well,
Speaker 1: star of the showtime Docuseriies Action. And this here podcast
Speaker 1: it's Todd wishing them. How you doing, DoD?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great because of this?
Speaker 1: All right, Todd? Do you want to This is Todd?
Speaker 1: This is not This is not a video to Odd.
Speaker 1: This is this is actual audio four on fourth.
Speaker 2: And twenty to give Todd the championship last year with
Speaker 2: a thirty twenty two and one record, beating Gilly thirty
Speaker 2: twenty three by a half a game. And I bring
Speaker 2: it up only because Fess here with us, and he
Speaker 2: told me that the Texans would tank in the last week.
Speaker 1: Wasn't wait a minute. Wasn't there controversy surrounding that? Last?
Speaker 1: Last year you did not win, there was controversy surrounding it.
Speaker 1: Could you explain.
Speaker 2: Why you created punt? No?
Speaker 1: I didn't create any controversy. There was controversy. You didn't
Speaker 1: win it out right, stop it already.
Speaker 2: I went thirty twenty two and one to thirty and
Speaker 2: twenty three.
Speaker 1: No, there was controversy. I have to go back and
Speaker 1: listen now because you're not being forthright about it. Wasn't
Speaker 1: there controversial actor?
Speaker 2: No, you can go back and listen. I won on
Speaker 2: that play on the fourth and twenty play. If you remember,
Speaker 2: I'm want.
Speaker 1: To say, no, but whatever I'm going to say, you didn't.
Speaker 2: Remember I did that. Remember I did the announcers boys
Speaker 2: that you guys were making fun of me because it
Speaker 2: was ridiculous.
Speaker 1: She did it because you did. Andre. Where is an
Speaker 1: old Southern gentleman? That's right. I forgot the other staple
Speaker 1: of the show this year, new to the Meg Pod.
Speaker 1: He's been a guest before. It is Fox Sports is
Speaker 1: Will Hill. Everybody? How you doing Will.
Speaker 3: Boys? I'm honored, I'm excited to be on.
Speaker 4: I just hope Gil let's Todd talk I mean, you
Speaker 4: could say Todd interrupts, but Gill just doesn't give him
Speaker 4: the opportunity to talk.
Speaker 3: So hopefully that happens this year. I'm excited football is back.
Speaker 3: Let's go.
Speaker 1: Oh man tell us so, by the way, on Fox,
Speaker 1: what are you doing exactly with the Bear?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's gonna be part of Bear Bets podcast. First
Speaker 4: episode aired last Thursday. I'm part of a roundtable with
Speaker 4: the Bear, Jeff Schwartz, former NFL offensive lineman who you've
Speaker 4: had on this podcast, and Sammy p and of course myself.
Speaker 4: So it should be fun. They drop usually Thursday morning sometimes,
Speaker 4: so look for that this week.
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz big fan of Todd's as well. We established
Speaker 1: that what he was on here and we always have,
Speaker 1: of course the the makeabout for met as we always
Speaker 1: have a rotating guest each and every year.
Speaker 2: Like that, I challenged him on the Steelers offensive line.
Speaker 1: Sorry, rotating guess Week one is the only back to
Speaker 1: back champion of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day.
Speaker 1: One of the smartest betters we know, a former actuary
Speaker 1: who uses his math prowess to aggressively get the best
Speaker 1: of every number. Steve Zick everybody.
Speaker 2: How you doing, man? You forgot that you buried the league.
Speaker 1: Todd, We'll get there. Could you just stop? Really, this
Speaker 1: is a bad start.
Speaker 5: Really, well not for those who bet over six and
Speaker 5: a half interruptions, because those guys are off to a
Speaker 5: good start here on the prop betting market.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, for undred to be here, thank you,
Speaker 1: thank you, thank you for doing it. We'll have you
Speaker 1: on again later this year as well. But you went
Speaker 1: how much? How much do you weigh right now?
Speaker 6: Two oh two? But good news.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: When I weighed myself this morning, I was above two hundred. Yeah,
Speaker 5: and that means I'm not allowed to eat until the
Speaker 5: sun goes down.
Speaker 1: It's like you really hold to that. You just fast.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's like it's like the stop gap. I cannot
Speaker 5: go above two hundred. Todd ridiculed the method.
Speaker 1: Ridiculed it. Todd. The the ozempic or whatever Todd is
Speaker 1: taking is it's not working for him. Well, he's doing
Speaker 1: well the last week though.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not no empic. After I gained back all
Speaker 2: the weight like a loser, I went on Monjaro and
Speaker 2: it's slowed. I've lost about fifteen twenty pounds, but I'm
Speaker 2: not doing well?
Speaker 1: All right, could you tell the people what text you
Speaker 1: received before this show?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I got text from our panel.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 5: This is from Todd give me two or three week
Speaker 5: one NFL points. No, please, no, thank you, just give
Speaker 5: up to me.
Speaker 2: Ye oh okay, Stevie, if that's the game, we're gonna
Speaker 2: pay ahead it.
Speaker 1: Will it Will say, I'm just answering the questions you
Speaker 1: just answered. The question.
Speaker 6: Will said, what is your first Megapod pick? Mike, I
Speaker 6: need to know?
Speaker 5: I responded, like in the Wonka movie, that would be
Speaker 5: cheating well, to which he responded, Oh, it's not cheating.
Speaker 6: Can you give me your picks?
Speaker 1: This is serious business, people, Come on, this.
Speaker 2: Is time like hearing what Steve has to say, so
Speaker 2: then I can shoot it down. Like last year he said,
Speaker 2: the Texans are gonna the Textans are going to uh,
Speaker 2: they're gonna tank in the last game of the season.
Speaker 2: But I said, no, they're not fourth and twenty. It's
Speaker 2: a touchdown thirty two, thirty one. Thank you?
Speaker 1: Oh? Can we can we we establish one thing before
Speaker 1: we start the show, because there's a lot of people
Speaker 1: who are on gambling Twitter. Are you and Brad Power's friends?
Speaker 1: Are you enemies. What's the story with that?
Speaker 5: It kind of depends upon the day, okay, and who
Speaker 5: and who got them the best of the other, you know,
Speaker 5: on the last game. By the way, powers like lean
Speaker 5: to Clemson last night. I didn't see it myself.
Speaker 6: I was on Duke.
Speaker 1: Clemson should have had twenty more points.
Speaker 5: If you cashed with the under, you probably were a
Speaker 5: little bit four to Todd. Todd and I like the
Speaker 5: third quarter under. That was an easy one.
Speaker 1: I had the second half under, which is ridiculous that
Speaker 1: that got home, But so did I. But I will
Speaker 1: say this about Steve Feszick, who not only is a
Speaker 1: is a really good better. And I hope you don't
Speaker 1: take this and I said this to you before. I
Speaker 1: hope you don't take this with a fence. I say
Speaker 1: it with such envy. You are also the luckiest better
Speaker 1: I've ever And I mean this, if something has a
Speaker 1: chance to go your way, Todd, back me up on
Speaker 1: this somehow. What's the word you use? Luckbox? Stevie, luckbox,
Speaker 1: Steve Stevie.
Speaker 2: I call him Stevie luckbox. He is he is the
Speaker 2: lucky I mean, now, maybe it hasn't been his whole life,
Speaker 2: but he's on a run right now, where his fortuitiveness.
Speaker 2: For example, last night the third quarter under which we
Speaker 2: had absolutely no chance of covering and somehow did okay.
Speaker 1: So people know the format of this show and I
Speaker 1: want to get into it. The format is, by the way,
Speaker 1: just to remind myself while I remind everybody, three best
Speaker 1: bets of the week. Sides are totals teaser of the week.
Speaker 1: We're talking about a two team six pointer. If you
Speaker 1: want to give us or five or play you can,
Speaker 1: that's optional. And then of course at the end, which
Speaker 1: big favor is most likely lose? Out right? Which game
Speaker 1: you want no part of in terms of the spread?
Speaker 1: Before we do that, Since it is week one, Steve,
Speaker 1: is there anything you would like to impart on the audience,
Speaker 1: either from an opinion standpoint or just a macro betting standpoint.
Speaker 5: You know, any one season, there's a whole lot of
Speaker 5: luck involved with all this. So if you tell me,
Speaker 5: like a major contest and there's ten thousand people in it, well,
Speaker 5: whoever wins, that's gotta be like one of the best
Speaker 5: betters in the world. Well not so much. You know,
Speaker 5: Jamie gold won. You know, the main event and Dodge
Speaker 5: rain drops for seven days. You know Moneymaker, who's a
Speaker 5: baker who's a pretty good poker player. Actually, yeah, but
Speaker 5: you got you got the aggression part, right, But he's
Speaker 5: not going to be confused with a top fifty player
Speaker 5: in the world, So don't overreact. I ran better than
Speaker 5: God in two thousand and eight and two thousand and
Speaker 5: nine when I won the four contests. And the thing
Speaker 5: about that I had four first place finishes. You know
Speaker 5: how many top twenties I had?
Speaker 1: How many?
Speaker 6: Four?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: That's uh, that's that's running good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, running good. By the way, about that poker thing,
Speaker 1: this is true story. My dad's cousin's kid finished third
Speaker 1: once year one year in World Series. Wow, so it is.
Speaker 1: And he's completely not a poker player, right and finish third?
Speaker 1: Look it up, ben VENISTI was the last Ben VENISTI
Speaker 1: Oh okay. So Will Todd's same question to you. Is
Speaker 1: there anything you all want to say before week one
Speaker 1: or you just want to dive into the format. What
Speaker 1: do you want to do? Will?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say Division dogs week one. I mean,
Speaker 4: first of all, I just hate laying a number really
Speaker 4: anytime in the NFL. But week one, you made the
Speaker 4: point yeah, we think we know stuff, but Colorado TC
Speaker 4: you perfect example. We don't know as much as we
Speaker 4: think we know. So be careful laying points, which is
Speaker 4: gonna get contradicted by some of my picks. But Week
Speaker 4: one traditionally good for the dog, especially division dogs at home.
Speaker 1: God, I mean.
Speaker 2: To that end, I would have had the second place
Speaker 2: pick in the brackets tortament NCAA Tournament challenge over with
Speaker 2: thousands of people for a million dollars in the DraftKings.
Speaker 2: So you know you called my picks for KACTA when
Speaker 2: I said San Diego State versus Yukon, and that's what
Speaker 2: ended up happening in I will say, Will, if you
Speaker 2: guys don't listen to this, guys, if you guys don't
Speaker 2: listen to the NCAA Tournament podcast that Gilly does, you
Speaker 2: should start doing this. Will Hill had FAU in the
Speaker 2: final four, and I had San Diego State Yukon, and
Speaker 2: so you should listen to that.
Speaker 1: That NCAA podcast might have been the most accurate insane
Speaker 1: betting and display ever. Will did have FAU in the
Speaker 1: final four. Todd had San Diego State, and I know
Speaker 1: Todd tells stories a certain way, which always cast dispersions
Speaker 1: on others, particularly me. But what did I say to
Speaker 1: you multiple times during that podcast? Multiple times?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: And your entry put in your damn entry the big
Speaker 1: fool and you didn't and it almost cost you a
Speaker 1: million dollar?
Speaker 5: Would you say big? Or you're referring to how how
Speaker 5: large a folly is or how large he is as
Speaker 5: a person.
Speaker 1: I'll leave that up to the listener.
Speaker 3: All right, all right, you know what's funny. I live
Speaker 3: in Connecticut.
Speaker 4: Fau was a split second away from winning the national
Speaker 4: championship in Connectic because Connecticut teams don't count in that pool.
Speaker 4: So a tenth of a second left, San Diego State
Speaker 4: hit a shot which I didn't bet him win a
Speaker 4: national title. So if they won that game, I probably
Speaker 4: would have been uh, would have been kicking myself. But
Speaker 4: a little little uh nugget there, just based on the rules,
Speaker 4: Fau was that close to being declared the champion, at
Speaker 4: least for Connecticut.
Speaker 1: Pon. How often do you go back and watch the
Speaker 1: Elite eight game where Fau gets into the final four?
Speaker 4: Now, don't I don't relive the past? Maybe three four
Speaker 4: times a week?
Speaker 1: Time? Sure, all right, let's do this week one of
Speaker 1: the NFL, and again this is the caveat of Look,
Speaker 1: even survivor pools are hard. Week one. We know stuff
Speaker 1: to a degree, but there's some stuff we always learn
Speaker 1: every Week one. Oh my god, we had it so
Speaker 1: wrong about this team, but these all count. Still A
Speaker 1: Todd is still bragging about, apparently as half game win
Speaker 1: over me last year, which apparently is under protest.
Speaker 2: First of all, fifty three games is a gigantic sample size.
Speaker 2: It's almost like thousands of games, thirty twenty two one.
Speaker 2: It's unbelievable, not quite, but.
Speaker 5: You know, in order to tell whether someone's actually a winner,
Speaker 5: and this is like just fooled by randomness type of things,
Speaker 5: you really need like five thousand trials, right, It is
Speaker 5: remarkable how like like Don Schwstner wrote a book Blackjack Attack,
Speaker 5: and he like shows players ABC and D and they
Speaker 5: play for like three months in their like one hundred
Speaker 5: thousand hands they played and player as getting burnt, cared, crunched,
Speaker 5: and player Sea's kicking butt and he's like, it explains
Speaker 5: why player's struggling so much, to the mistakes he's making them,
Speaker 5: player seeing why he's doing so well, and he says,
Speaker 5: I'm just lying.
Speaker 1: They both played perfectly play Arry got unlucky. It really
Speaker 1: is true though, and even even someonely yourself he won
Speaker 1: back to back. But we've had others like James Salinas
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, Chris who does well in multiple contests. Two
Speaker 1: years is not enough, not even close to the number
Speaker 1: you decided, right, So it's someone's good. Someone is gonna
Speaker 1: run good in these contests. Hopefully it's you listening right now.
Speaker 1: But boy, it's just going to be you know, the
Speaker 1: normal grind of millions or of the Westgate contest five
Speaker 1: picks a week and you're a contest that way, survivor
Speaker 1: is in play as well. Those are so much fun
Speaker 1: as we do this and try to make money on
Speaker 1: actual bets. So let's start with our our actual best
Speaker 1: bets of the week. Will rotate these. Steve will start
Speaker 1: with you, what's your favorite side? Are total?
Speaker 5: You know, let's go with the total. And this is
Speaker 5: more of a gut field than anything else. That Eagles
Speaker 5: at Patriots. We're gonna go under forty five. I don't
Speaker 5: want to get in trouble with the accountants. Todd, you're
Speaker 5: the numbers guy. That's that's readily available, right.
Speaker 2: That was already one of my picks.
Speaker 1: Yeah, shocker, I share. I want to disclose. I share
Speaker 1: my plays with Todd.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know before I guess it's not I don't know, Stevie,
Speaker 2: I guess it's not written down right here before you
Speaker 2: said anything thing.
Speaker 1: I sent it to you and chewing the court stenographer
Speaker 1: of the Megapod also court thief of the.
Speaker 5: This is guy like in the movie Oh God, like
Speaker 5: like that. The stenographer is like nothing George Burne said,
Speaker 5: is like it is recorded here.
Speaker 6: He said he couldn't be hurt. He couldn't be recorded.
Speaker 6: I just think that.
Speaker 2: I'll forget to send my in game college basketball.
Speaker 6: That's two for those counting on interruptions.
Speaker 5: So so, I just think Patriots aren't going to score
Speaker 5: much against the Eagles. The Eagles had the super Bowl hangover.
Speaker 5: They didn't play their starters in preseason, which depressed scoring
Speaker 5: for the offense. There was a tweet by Cleve Ta
Speaker 5: that was outstanding about teams that don't play their their
Speaker 5: starting quarterback. Yeah, the offenses like struggle there in terms
Speaker 5: of I think like five points less than what their
Speaker 5: team total is.
Speaker 6: So if the Eagles are going to score lesson they're
Speaker 6: supposed to do.
Speaker 5: And I don't think the Patriots are going to score
Speaker 5: a lot, and we've got a toll that's still above
Speaker 5: average at forty five. This has a twenty three to
Speaker 5: twenty scrum look to it.
Speaker 6: I'll go under the forty five, all right.
Speaker 1: Under forty five on the Patriots and the Eagles, William Wilson, Hillson, everybody.
Speaker 4: The reason I asked Fez for his first pick, I
Speaker 4: was very certain he was going to take this wht.
Speaker 4: I'm happy he didn't give me Miami plus three. If
Speaker 4: you're gonna tell me, just hey, out of the thirty
Speaker 4: two teams, pick two teams that are as even as
Speaker 4: it gets. I would pick offensive Charger. I think they're
Speaker 4: just dead even teams. Chargers have a very slight uh
Speaker 4: snim to none home field advantage, travel you don't worry
Speaker 4: about this time of the year. So I just don't
Speaker 4: know how you get to three with this number. There's
Speaker 4: starting to be some three and a half minus one
Speaker 4: twenty to me again, dead even teams.
Speaker 3: You're gonna give me the three, I'll take it.
Speaker 4: This open Chargers pick at Chargers pick. Look, I think
Speaker 4: I have some Chargers pick in my account. I lean
Speaker 4: to that side, but three points in terms of the adjustment,
Speaker 4: I don't understand. I know Miami's got some injuries and
Speaker 4: Ramsey and the offensive lineman, but I will take the
Speaker 4: points here and let me let me put fes to
Speaker 4: work here just quickly, Fez, if you can get three
Speaker 4: and a half minus one twenty, what is a profit?
Speaker 4: Will middle the other the f side on the Chargers
Speaker 4: money line, I'm curious what your thoughts are on that.
Speaker 5: All right, So the line is currently a three, So
Speaker 5: if you can get three and a half, you're gonna
Speaker 5: cast fifty five percent because literally, if three is the
Speaker 5: correct line, which I'm gonna do for this middling, it's
Speaker 5: gonna you're gonna go forty five to ten and forty
Speaker 5: five if you lay three or take three. So if
Speaker 5: you take three and a half, you win with that
Speaker 5: if it lands on three, so you're gonna win fifty
Speaker 5: five percent of the time. If you're playing plus three
Speaker 5: and a half LA dollar twenty, that's a break even
Speaker 5: bet on thet. So now we need a positive ev
Speaker 5: on the money line in order to turn a profit.
Speaker 5: I think at no big money line on a three
Speaker 5: point favorite is minus one forty seven plus one forty
Speaker 5: seven minus one forty five. Well, from off the top
Speaker 5: of my head would be penny with the plus three
Speaker 5: minus one twenty, you're freeing Hamburgers.
Speaker 6: It's like a point five percent edge on the middle.
Speaker 1: That's what you wanted, will.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was just curious because I'm seeing, like again,
Speaker 4: there's some three and a half minus twenty popping up,
Speaker 4: and there's some minus one sixty charges on the money line.
Speaker 4: That's not quite close enough, but I mean there's there
Speaker 4: comes a point here where if you can just shop
Speaker 4: around and be good at chopping.
Speaker 3: It's intriguing to.
Speaker 4: Just play the middle because to me, this has like
Speaker 4: twenty seven to twenty four charges written all over.
Speaker 5: The problem with the minus one sixty is that you
Speaker 5: can play the minus three minus one ten even and
Speaker 5: that's and that's superior bet. So so trying to get
Speaker 5: at the money line is going to be an inferior bet.
Speaker 5: And by the way, laying three and taking three and
Speaker 5: a half is approximately break even. But you know you're
Speaker 5: paying extra big on the three and a half, so
Speaker 5: that won't that won't fly.
Speaker 1: So you took the dolphins there will plus three? Is
Speaker 1: that the bet?
Speaker 3: Dolph Dolphins plus three.
Speaker 1: Dolphins plus three, all right, Todd Todd is the official
Speaker 1: lines keeper as well. What do you got, Todd?
Speaker 2: What's your first By the way, that's an interesting conversation,
Speaker 2: you guys just having. Now, let's say there was nine
Speaker 2: minutes left in the game and you could get the
Speaker 2: three and a half versus a three and the game
Speaker 2: was like right near those numbers or the minus one
Speaker 2: sixty at that point, would you have would it be
Speaker 2: more worthwhile because there's so many less outcomes that could happen,
Speaker 2: and landing you know where it you know, in the middle,
Speaker 2: there is obviously a lot more likely Steve, your thoughts.
Speaker 5: It all depends, but in general, yes, So, I mean,
Speaker 5: if the game's tied, honor off, the three is probably
Speaker 5: gonna be worth sixty five cents at least, if not more.
Speaker 5: If if the Chargers are head by two, it's pretty worthless. Well,
Speaker 5: it's not worthless, but it depends. But yes, direction with
Speaker 5: your spot on right.
Speaker 2: Okay, that was just a question. Okay, my first pick
Speaker 2: was also, Even though Steve's going to say that I
Speaker 2: stole it from I didn't. I just I had this
Speaker 2: written down. I didn't know you even gave it to
Speaker 2: me in June. But the point is is I'll take
Speaker 2: the Patriots. Not for the reasons that he stated about,
Speaker 2: you know, teams that don't play the first string and
Speaker 2: all that nonsense, but great job, cleeve Ta. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: take it just base done. One thing I think the
Speaker 2: Patriots know, and Bill Belichick seems to be a decent coach.
Speaker 2: They cannot score with the Philadelphia Eagles. There is no
Speaker 2: chance in hell that if this game was some kind
Speaker 2: of shootout. Bill Belichick knows he can stay close. He
Speaker 2: knows he can, he knows he has to slow this
Speaker 2: game down to an absolute crawl and make it a scrum.
Speaker 2: And that's why I like the under forty five too.
Speaker 2: I just think there's there. You know, Bill Belichick at
Speaker 2: home is going to do everything in his power to
Speaker 2: make this a scrum, low scoring game. And that's why
Speaker 2: I'll take the under forty five as well for my
Speaker 2: first pick.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, I am going into that game
Speaker 1: and I am countering what my friend doctor Bob has.
Speaker 1: Doctor Bob's one NFL play that he has, he's on
Speaker 1: the Patriots. I'm going opo ooh, I'm taking the Eagles
Speaker 1: and I'm laying before. I don't quite get it. I
Speaker 1: really don't. I have a feeling that by the second quarter,
Speaker 1: everyone in their heads will say to themselves, oh my god,
Speaker 1: this team's the fucking greatest team in the whole league.
Speaker 1: And what have we been talking ourselves out of offseason? Now?
Speaker 1: I could be terribly wrong. I could be terribly wrong,
Speaker 1: and apparently the analytics community to know something that I
Speaker 1: don't on the Patriots. But I will take this all
Speaker 1: day long. And one of the things, certainly, the coordinators
Speaker 1: are a highlight here where the Eagles have lost both
Speaker 1: of theirs, and in the Patriots case, they've gotten rid
Speaker 1: of the facacto way that they did it last year.
Speaker 1: So I concede that. But I'm gonna lay the points
Speaker 1: here week one where I don't want to overthink it
Speaker 1: too much. I'm gonna be okay losing this, but I
Speaker 1: certainly if the Eagles roll them, I don't want to
Speaker 1: not be a part of that. So I'm taking the Eagles.
Speaker 1: I am laying the points, just trying not to outthink
Speaker 1: myself here, just gonna make it simple. Eagles. Mine is
Speaker 1: the points. My verse. Do we snake this or do
Speaker 1: we keep going around. Let's keep going wrong.
Speaker 2: You know we do that, we do the round raw
Speaker 2: and you go second? Do you go first? Oh?
Speaker 1: I do go second. Okay, I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys on this is awful that I'm doing road
Speaker 1: favorites here. It's not the way to riches. But again,
Speaker 1: week one, I'm not gonna help think myself here Sunday
Speaker 1: night taking the Cowboys. What is that three three consensus?
Speaker 2: I'd see it leaking, but I would say there's a
Speaker 2: lot of threes left. Steve, what do you think?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a lot of threes.
Speaker 5: It's three point two five. You could go, you could
Speaker 5: take you three or take three and a half, which
Speaker 5: is great game.
Speaker 2: We'll give you the minus three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, then I'm laying the three. My opinion on the Giants,
Speaker 1: My one of my big season long bets is the
Speaker 1: Giants alternate season win total under. I know Brian Dable
Speaker 1: got the Coach of the Year, I think I think
Speaker 1: it was a fagazy coach of the year where he
Speaker 1: got the credit for a lot of really timely, high
Speaker 1: leverage performance by the Giants, both offensively and defensively, and
Speaker 1: especially when you look at third and fourth downs versus
Speaker 1: first and second downs. They sustained that for a long time.
Speaker 1: And there might be some people out there are like, oh,
Speaker 1: that's all coaching. I mean, they just step it up
Speaker 1: with it. That's not how this works. And I think
Speaker 1: they're a team by the way they were eight and
Speaker 1: four and one score games. I think this is the
Speaker 1: year where it where it changes dramatically for them, and
Speaker 1: I think it starts right here on Sunday Night football.
Speaker 1: I think they get beat at home by the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I'll lay the three unsustainable unsustainable. That's what I'm doing,
Speaker 1: all right, Steve.
Speaker 3: If somebody takes a pick, is that off the board?
Speaker 3: Is that?
Speaker 1: No? No, no, no, no no. Todd makes a living. Todd
Speaker 1: makes a living duplicating everybody.
Speaker 2: That's hysterical is then show you all? And I do
Speaker 2: not have many of other people's picks. In fact, many
Speaker 2: people have.
Speaker 1: I really Is that right? Well, maybe you shouldn't tell
Speaker 1: stories and make other people seem to be dumb in
Speaker 1: your stories when they're trying to help you out. All right, Todd,
Speaker 1: what's your pick?
Speaker 2: My second pick is going to be Look, obviously these
Speaker 2: numbers have been hammered into submit over many months by
Speaker 2: people like Fezik and all that stuff's in there. Now
Speaker 2: you have to find some gut, you know, feel kind
Speaker 2: of thing where you can say, look, maybe the experts
Speaker 2: are wrong, similar to what Gilly just said, where he
Speaker 2: thought that, you know, maybe there's just too much you know, talking.
Speaker 2: I think, by the way, taking the road favorite Gilly
Speaker 2: there when everybody else is on the other side is
Speaker 2: probably a good idea at this point when all the
Speaker 2: smarty pants can go into group think.
Speaker 1: So anyway, fans, yeah, all.
Speaker 2: The smarty Pants like to go into group thing. But
Speaker 2: so what I'm going to do is here, I'm just
Speaker 2: going to do something based on feel, and that is
Speaker 2: I'd like to take the Chicago Bears. I believe they're
Speaker 2: laying one point. I actually have them plus nine in
Speaker 2: my pocket from when they first came out, you know,
Speaker 2: all those I'm being like one of those touts on
Speaker 2: Twitter where there's oh I got that line when it
Speaker 2: first came out at plus nine and now they're down
Speaker 2: the minus one. So I've got ten points of value there.
Speaker 2: But anyway, yes, I'll take the Bears minus one point.
Speaker 2: The reason being is the Bears have been tortured by
Speaker 2: mister Aaron Rodgers for many, many years. I believe that
Speaker 2: that the receivers on the Packers were not very good
Speaker 2: last year, and Rogers was really strong with him. So
Speaker 2: now I get the former Utah State quarterback, which I
Speaker 2: never liked at Utahs data. I know they all love,
Speaker 2: Oh Jordan Love. He's the greatest things in sliced bread.
Speaker 2: I never liked them in college. I don't believe in him.
Speaker 2: Maybe he'll turn, you know, say that I'm totally wrong,
Speaker 2: But remember I was right about Ryan's Fitzpatrick as you
Speaker 2: were as well Gilly when he came in and covered
Speaker 2: all those games for an zero to seven Miami team.
Speaker 2: Jordan Love is not the answer in Green Bay. So
Speaker 2: now the Bears get an opportunity to spank the Packers
Speaker 2: after they've been spanked year after year after year. They're
Speaker 2: at home. They've got a guy who can go back
Speaker 2: to pass from the from his own thirty and he's
Speaker 2: gone seventy yards touchdown. I want the Bears. I want
Speaker 2: minus one. I don't believe Jordan Loves is ready for
Speaker 2: road divisional football in the National Football League.
Speaker 3: Not Bears.
Speaker 1: Okay, will number two.
Speaker 3: Usually the worst team is not as bad as we think.
Speaker 3: I think the Cardinals break that rule. I will go Washington.
Speaker 4: I'll lay the seven renewed optimism with that home field.
Speaker 4: You might get a little bit of a home field
Speaker 4: that's been a sort of a you know, disinterested crowd
Speaker 4: in recent years. Now with Snyder gone a little more enthusiasm.
Speaker 4: I think this Arizona team is just not a professional team.
Speaker 3: They're bad on both sides of the ball.
Speaker 4: Whoever starts at quarterback, whether it's Dobbs or Claytonton, is
Speaker 4: probably gonna get hurt behind that offensive line. I'll lay
Speaker 4: it with Washington. Usually don't like laying a touchdown, especially
Speaker 4: in Week one.
Speaker 2: I'll break the.
Speaker 3: Rules here la with the Commanders.
Speaker 1: If ever there was a must win situation, it's the
Speaker 1: Commodes going up against the Cardinals. And let me just
Speaker 1: say this, also because it's September, become normalized to it,
Speaker 1: but the single greatest story of the offseason Daniel Snyder
Speaker 1: no longer the owner of this team. I cannot express
Speaker 1: you how much this means to so many of us,
Speaker 1: ding dong, which is dead absolutely. In fact, I'll tell
Speaker 1: you how much it is. I beat Todd WISHNEVN tennis.
Speaker 1: This is a true story. He had beaten me roughly
Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty four times in a row. I
Speaker 1: beat him in tennis, and I acted like I won Wimbledon.
Speaker 1: I was just a washing glory. And we go to
Speaker 1: Chipotle and the news that Daniel Snyder was no longer
Speaker 1: gonna be the owner of the Skins comes down and
Speaker 1: I completely for it. Was like when Farah Fawcett died
Speaker 1: and then Michael Jackson had the audacity diet. She died,
Speaker 1: and then Michael Jackson died right after it, and no
Speaker 1: one cared about Farah Fawcett diet anymore. That's how I felt.
Speaker 5: I want to know what the two teamer gil Anti correlated,
Speaker 5: parlay gil beating Todd and then Todd beating Ben Wilson.
Speaker 1: Paid it's got to be on the straps. You didn't
Speaker 1: beat Todd, You didn't beat Ben Wilson, did you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I beat him, Yeah, we played. Yeah, I beat
Speaker 2: him in a set last year. And when I was
Speaker 2: real thin.
Speaker 6: Oh okay, wow, he limped off with an injury right after.
Speaker 1: Uh No, but.
Speaker 2: It was it was very very competitive when I was thin.
Speaker 2: It was very very competitive to me. He was still
Speaker 2: better than me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ben versus Todd at two fifteen is like me
Speaker 1: versus Todd at three hundred.
Speaker 6: I mean I would have laid ninety nine.
Speaker 5: I would have laid eighty to make a dollar, just
Speaker 5: like Purdue with But thanks Ben Wilson. Another Purdue game
Speaker 5: for me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what's by the way, Billy did get that the
Speaker 2: word book. Hilly got the win after three hundred and
Speaker 2: forty consecutive losses. But since then he's oh and eleven.
Speaker 6: Lewis humiliating loss.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, let me just say this.
Speaker 2: We then we win, even though he's St. Louis.
Speaker 1: We went to Saint in.
Speaker 2: Saint Louis, Jeff Jeff Pearl's wedding, he was very close
Speaker 2: again to get in his second wish.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I believe, which is nineteen. He's going to
Speaker 1: stop talking at some point, which is why I told
Speaker 1: Todd that it wasn't the victory that gave me coffie.
Speaker 1: It was in Saint Louis where I stared into his
Speaker 1: eyes and I knew it was like Ali after the
Speaker 1: thrill in Manila, he beat Frasier, but he knew if
Speaker 1: you look into his eyes, he knew it was over
Speaker 1: that's wish nip ever, the same after ever, the same man. Yeah, yeah, Stevie,
Speaker 1: you're number two.
Speaker 6: I'm number two.
Speaker 5: I'm going to go or two end your three, all right,
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go oppo with Todd. I'm gonna take the
Speaker 5: Green Bay Packers plus one. Uh, you know, the pack
Speaker 5: you go. You know it's interesting Todd keeps talking about
Speaker 5: a home field advantage, and he's right. You know, the
Speaker 5: Packers are going to have one in Chicago. Anyone who's
Speaker 5: attended this game. I know the population is a lot
Speaker 5: bigger in Chicago that is in Green Bay. But I
Speaker 5: think it's easier for the Packers fans to get like
Speaker 5: seats in Chicago than it is in Green Bay. And
Speaker 5: if you just look at recent history for whatever reason,
Speaker 5: let's see, the Bears lost ten to three in twenty nineteen. Okay,
Speaker 5: COVID year they got drilled by nineteen. No fans there,
Speaker 5: but no Green Bay fans, so maybe that should have
Speaker 5: helped the Bears. Bears lost twenty twenty one twenty four
Speaker 5: to fourteen. They lost last year twenty eight to nineteen.
Speaker 5: The Bears are not owned by Aaron Rodgers. They are
Speaker 5: owned by the Green Bay Packers, and if Todd had
Speaker 5: checked his injury reports, he would have seen that the
Speaker 5: Bears have had cluster injuries throughout the preseason where not one,
Speaker 5: not two, not three, but four of their offensive linemen
Speaker 5: have been juggled back and forth, all with nagging injuries
Speaker 5: and the like. And that's why money's been coming on
Speaker 5: Green Bay. Bold prediction, Todd, don't lay one on the Bears.
Speaker 5: You can take points with the Bears right before they
Speaker 5: kick off, It's still not gonna help you because the
Speaker 5: Packers are going to kick their ass green Bay Plus.
Speaker 2: I have the Bears plus nine, Steve, you weren't listening.
Speaker 2: I have the Bears plus nine in the bucket.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I said this on this show.
Speaker 1: Maybe I did in the preview with the NFL preview
Speaker 1: with Matt and Kelly from last week, but I've said
Speaker 1: it a million times on a numbers game. Why are
Speaker 1: you so convinced Jordan Love's gonna suck, Todd? He's been
Speaker 1: under the same coordinator, in the same coach for like
Speaker 1: three years under tutelage. He may be good. You don't know.
Speaker 6: Maybe does he need to be good? Does he needs
Speaker 6: to be capable?
Speaker 1: Just needs to be capable. Just don't turn the all over.
Speaker 1: He could be very good.
Speaker 2: We last time, last time we were off Oh it
Speaker 2: was thirty two thirty one Texans on fourth and twenty.
Speaker 1: When they were.
Speaker 5: Thinking, that's that's a high yeah, a high probability of
Speaker 5: success fourth and twenty with that offense.
Speaker 6: So you were you had the right side there?
Speaker 1: What's your number three?
Speaker 6: Number three?
Speaker 5: I'm going to go and Todd's going to break into
Speaker 5: cheering the Pittsburgh Steelers catching two?
Speaker 6: What What the heck am I doing?
Speaker 5: I had all summer to play Pittsburgh plus three and
Speaker 5: now am I trying to donk off my money?
Speaker 6: Taken two and a bad number? No, because I.
Speaker 2: Think half, Stevie, you deserve it.
Speaker 5: Could have half, all right, I'll take it. I tell
Speaker 5: you what, Grab the two and a half now because
Speaker 5: it won't be there come Sunday. What's changed during the summer? Well, Bosa,
Speaker 5: he's kind of important. Is he going to play? Just
Speaker 5: you know they they're about to sign him again, still
Speaker 5: haven't signed him?
Speaker 6: Is he going to be ready?
Speaker 5: He's worth a point on defense and non quarterbacks are
Speaker 5: rarely worth a point, but he truly is their best
Speaker 5: defender and Kittles banged up, you know, so one of
Speaker 5: the most important offensive guys. He's not as import because
Speaker 5: they've got so many different weapons, you know, with Debo
Speaker 5: and with Semac and the like.
Speaker 6: But I mean he's still important to the line.
Speaker 5: And you look at no team has looked better in
Speaker 5: pre season than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Clicking in all cylinders.
Speaker 5: They're not just beaten up on second stringers either, like
Speaker 5: in the Buffalo game. Yeah, blankets fourteen to nothing. Steelers
Speaker 5: have just drilled three straight teams. I think it should
Speaker 5: be pick them. San France starts slow last year when
Speaker 5: they lost in the Monsoon to the Bears, one of
Speaker 5: three wins for the Bears, so you give me the points.
Speaker 5: I'm not sure that San France should even be favored.
Speaker 5: Steelers plus two.
Speaker 1: I like it. William.
Speaker 2: My first question is if you're gonna take the Stillers
Speaker 2: don at Akroscher Stadium. Dean's got a parking pass into
Speaker 2: the casino, because there's no way in hell you're gonna
Speaker 2: be able to park within fourteen miles of that stadium
Speaker 2: down there in Week one with Canny Pickett. So if
Speaker 2: Yen's better not check your email right now you don
Speaker 2: at a Rivers casino and find out whether you got
Speaker 2: a card. That'll a lie YenS to park in a
Speaker 2: normal fashion. Otherwise, I don't know how you're getting to
Speaker 2: the game.
Speaker 6: If you're seven stars, you can park right at the
Speaker 6: seven Stars. Ballet Todd down Air, Caesars.
Speaker 1: The best is down Air.
Speaker 2: There's no doubt when we're in Perman he's we're not
Speaker 2: thinking about Caesar's palless and that that's some Vegas nonsense.
Speaker 4: Will what do you get from a competitive standpoint, I
Speaker 4: would like to take Dallas minus the three. I feel
Speaker 4: like from a content standpoint it's a little boring because
Speaker 4: I had the same picks and handicaps. So I will
Speaker 4: go in a different direction here. I'll take Cleveland plus
Speaker 4: two and a half. If you look at Cincy, it's interesting.
Speaker 4: There's a perception that they're this dominant team because you
Speaker 4: went to a Super Bowl a couple of years ago,
Speaker 4: a play away from going to Super Bowl last year. Now,
Speaker 4: yards per play is in everything, but yards per play
Speaker 4: on offense five point four, yards per play a lout
Speaker 4: on defense five point four, both middle of the pack.
Speaker 4: Cleveland gets Watson without the rust. They get a decentl
Speaker 4: I think it is going to be improved a lot
Speaker 4: with Schwartz, who's one of the few defensive coordinators that matters.
Speaker 4: Cleveland destroyed them on Halloween last night in Cleveland. That
Speaker 4: was with what prostic quarterback Burrows had no training camp.
Speaker 4: Who knows how healthy it is. I love the three,
Speaker 4: but at two and a half year, I will take
Speaker 4: Cleveland plus the points that.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to the New York Giants football game
Speaker 2: and I am gonna go under the forty seven in
Speaker 2: that ball game. The games last year were not high
Speaker 2: scoring games. The final score in one of them was
Speaker 2: twenty eight to twenty. One of them was with a
Speaker 2: total backdoor touchdown after the Cowboys scored with like two
Speaker 2: minutes to go in a ridiculous game that gives should
Speaker 2: never run would.
Speaker 4: You say on Thanksgiving? I remember it all too well.
Speaker 4: That was Yeah, what effect that game should have?
Speaker 2: Totals? That game should have never gone over. The first
Speaker 2: game I believe was twenty three sixteenth. Look the Dallas
Speaker 2: Cowboys and the reason they were good last year. The
Speaker 2: defense was very good. It wasn't about that. It was
Speaker 2: about those crazy rushers coming off the edge. And just
Speaker 2: dominating people from a defensive from the defensive side of
Speaker 2: the football, and I think they're going to be smart
Speaker 2: enough to realize we've got to play defense. It's not
Speaker 2: like the New York Giants have a strong offense. Tame
Speaker 2: ha'f the time. It's Danny running, going back to pass
Speaker 2: and somehow he gets away and scrambles for a first down.
Speaker 2: This is not a great I think Saquon Barkley had
Speaker 2: thirty nine yards rushing in one of the games. It's
Speaker 2: not like the Giants are going to move to the football
Speaker 2: in Dallas. Dallas is going to play a grinding style.
Speaker 2: Forty seven is a high number in a National Football
Speaker 2: League game. Both games should have gone under last year.
Speaker 2: Give me that under forty seven in that Dallas game,
Speaker 2: and come on, under forty seven should be reserved for
Speaker 2: the for the crazy games, you know, Charger games, Miami games,
Speaker 2: Dallas against a Giants in a divisional game, this is
Speaker 2: going to be smack me in the mouth football under
Speaker 2: forty seven.
Speaker 5: You know, this is the first time I think I've
Speaker 5: ever heard somebody like cite a twenty eight to twenty
Speaker 5: prior from the year before as evidence that the game
Speaker 5: is going to go under forty seven.
Speaker 2: Kudos Tode the back there was a touchdown with two
Speaker 2: minutes to go, and then at backdoor touchdown, Stevie, thank
Speaker 2: you very much. You have to read inside the box score. Well,
Speaker 2: it's not just about the final score, it's how they
Speaker 2: get to that.
Speaker 5: Thank you that well that the audience wants to know.
Speaker 5: You need to explain that to them. He just cited
Speaker 5: the final score.
Speaker 4: I will here that that back door touchdown was enhanced
Speaker 4: because of I think it was a bogus roughing the
Speaker 4: passer call.
Speaker 3: Giants never would have scored too, So that was Todd's wright.
Speaker 1: Excellent Todd, I forgot about bogus roughing the passer penalties.
Speaker 6: Oh terrible, tackling the defense fifty.
Speaker 2: If Stevie had the over luck box, Stevie would have
Speaker 2: won that one. He probably did have the over in
Speaker 2: that game with some back door.
Speaker 6: Do you think you and I are lucky? You should
Speaker 6: see what I do.
Speaker 1: With crack Man. But by the way, let me just
Speaker 1: praise Todd Wishneff for his for his amazing memory and
Speaker 1: recall on some of these things. So last last night
Speaker 1: we were betting a few things. Obviously we all had
Speaker 1: like different variations of the under in that Clemson game,
Speaker 1: which we luck boxed our way to victory. But one
Speaker 1: of the plays in that game was this dead ball
Speaker 1: penalty called on Duke on a fourth down for Clemson
Speaker 1: where club Nick slid right before the sticks and then
Speaker 1: he was just absolutely drilled. But it was ruled because
Speaker 1: the slide had already started that it was a dead
Speaker 1: ball foul and because it was fourth down and he
Speaker 1: was short that the ball then went to Duke. And
Speaker 1: I immediately because I get it, that's the rule, and
Speaker 1: I know people are outraged about it, but that's exactly
Speaker 1: how you call that. And I was like, wow, is
Speaker 1: there a precedent for this? I can't think of any
Speaker 1: time this was ever called this way. And Todd immediately
Speaker 1: and I talked about it on a Numbers game this morning,
Speaker 1: immediately called him. He goes, yeah, there was an Eric
Speaker 1: Weddle play in that playoff game. And I was like,
Speaker 1: oh my god, how do you remember that? And it
Speaker 1: sure was Tampa Bay the Rams. The year that the
Speaker 1: Rams won the Super Bowl. They were up two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay was driving that pass to Evans from Brady
Speaker 1: and remember Evans batted it down, and because it hit
Speaker 1: the ground the ball before Weddell drilled him on a
Speaker 1: fourth down, he got the penalty, but the ball went
Speaker 1: to the Rams. If Evans had tipped the ball up
Speaker 1: and then Weddle had drilled him, the Bucks would have
Speaker 1: maintained possession. So it's it was very consistent.
Speaker 5: But I just you know, they say if you watch
Speaker 5: a football game or a baseball game closely enough. My
Speaker 5: father told me this, Yeah, you will see something that
Speaker 5: you had never seen your entire life. Dead And my
Speaker 5: dad said this, So example, one time in Cleveland, there's
Speaker 5: a high fly ball to deep left and it bounced
Speaker 5: over the Green Monster. So it's a ground rule double
Speaker 5: over a twenty one foot high fence because.
Speaker 1: It had just enough. Really, yes, do you think it
Speaker 1: would be impossible? Yeah?
Speaker 5: And I saw like a throw to the plate and
Speaker 5: hit the rosen bag on the pitching mound, you know.
Speaker 5: So just things like if you watch it, Craig like,
Speaker 5: I've never seen that before.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: And when we were I was at the game with
Speaker 5: my father, Wendell Statt was like observing and there's two
Speaker 5: guys in the in the on deck circle and one
Speaker 5: of the crowd one of the fans said, hey, Wendell.
Speaker 6: Statt, they're not allowed to do that.
Speaker 5: They got two guys in the on deck circle and
Speaker 5: he walked over and he said, you got to go
Speaker 5: to the dugout.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 5: So if you look closely enough, you'll see you'll see
Speaker 5: something never happened.
Speaker 1: Before the Do you remember the Giants game? I saw
Speaker 1: this yesterday where the one where but where Jake Peev
Speaker 1: was on the mound and he wasn't paying attention, and
Speaker 1: Buster Posey didn't see that he wasn't paying attention and
Speaker 1: threw the ball back to him and Peevee just happened
Speaker 1: to have his glove here though. Yeah, that was awesome.
Speaker 1: That was awesome. It's like Chris Parley, can I just say.
Speaker 2: That that rule needs to be changed because if you're
Speaker 2: in the middle of the play, granted, the guy's knee
Speaker 2: was down in a split second later the guy blasted
Speaker 2: his head open. Same thing with the Eric Weddo play.
Speaker 2: It's part of the play. It's not a dead ballfoul
Speaker 2: dead ball means it's really a dead ball. We're running
Speaker 2: back to the huddle. When somebody smashes somebody, you know
Speaker 2: in the in the seats or something, or takes a
Speaker 2: shot at somebody. That's what a dead ball foul should be.
Speaker 2: It shouldn't be a dead ball because a guy's knee
Speaker 2: hits the ground and literally a split second later a
Speaker 2: guy blasts him in the head. That's still part of
Speaker 2: the play in my humble opinion.
Speaker 5: So after you have a pick six and the guy
Speaker 5: scores a nanosecond after he crosses the goal line, if
Speaker 5: you have someone like what like clothesline on defense the
Speaker 5: offensive guy, the touchdown doesn't count them because it's close enough.
Speaker 6: Seems inconsistent to me.
Speaker 2: That's a great question. Actually, that's a great point by Stevie.
Speaker 2: What happens if that happens now, if a guy, Yeah,
Speaker 2: if a guy gets a touchdown and a guy blast
Speaker 2: them a half a second, what that's not That's not
Speaker 2: gonna that's gonna be a touchdown.
Speaker 6: I believe.
Speaker 1: So it's not gonna be a touchdown.
Speaker 5: It is might be the same this same concept that
Speaker 5: basically the play, the play is over, point one seconds
Speaker 5: goes by, and now it's got to be an after
Speaker 5: the place.
Speaker 1: What's the inconsistency.
Speaker 5: I'm trying to figure out what Todd's rationale saying it
Speaker 5: should still count.
Speaker 6: What point do we draw the line?
Speaker 5: Is it like one point one seconds, is it zero
Speaker 5: point six seconds, or is it zero point one second?
Speaker 1: Well, I don't think there's an inconsistency. So what you're saying,
Speaker 1: Todd makes sense on the service where it's like it's
Speaker 1: dead as far as the play is concerned, But the
Speaker 1: actions in the play and the position at the time
Speaker 1: of the of the hit are very much live basically, right.
Speaker 1: That's the distinction to me. The better they make judgment,
Speaker 1: to me that they make judgment. Yeah, the better argument
Speaker 1: is what are you trying to do with targeting penalties
Speaker 1: to begin with? You're trying to protect the players, right,
Speaker 1: he trys a safety thing. In that respect, it's wholly
Speaker 1: inconsistent with the with the punishment and the lack thereof
Speaker 1: doled out, right, that's the real argument. I think like
Speaker 1: it goes counter to the spirit of what they're trying
Speaker 1: to do with that stuff. But I don't see it
Speaker 1: inconsistent with the dead ball if somebody goes out of bounds, Right,
Speaker 1: Let's say somebody goes out of bounds and then they
Speaker 1: get popped. That's a dead ball foul if it happens
Speaker 1: on third down that the team that got popped still
Speaker 1: maintains possession and they get the penalty. But if it's
Speaker 1: on fourth down, they don't keep the ball. It goes
Speaker 1: to the other team. And when that happens, we'll all
Speaker 1: be up in arms. We'll be like, what do you
Speaker 1: mean it's a personal foul? He was out of bit
Speaker 1: or fourth down? Play was done, the possession change already happened.
Speaker 2: Great. I just think the dead ball should be defined
Speaker 2: as after the action of the play is over and
Speaker 2: the refs can make a judgment calle, just like they
Speaker 2: make a judgment call on holding what it needs to
Speaker 2: have the play being over. Now, Okay, everyone jumps up
Speaker 2: and they start punching each other. That's a dead file.
Speaker 2: But okay, whatever.
Speaker 1: Anyway, I was just trying to Praisey for remembering that
Speaker 1: because I thought that was awesome.
Speaker 2: Thank you anyway, I appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Can I give my baseball.
Speaker 4: You'll never see it again the anniversary today, I think
Speaker 4: twenty five years ago, so you never see this again.
Speaker 1: With the rules, I.
Speaker 4: Think it was Astro's padres two outs, two strikes, ninth inning.
Speaker 4: The catcher signals for an intentional walk sneaks back behind
Speaker 4: the plate and the pitcher buzzes in a fastball for
Speaker 4: a strike three game over.
Speaker 1: I retweeted it, Oh wow, that's amazing. Yeah, I never
Speaker 1: see that again.
Speaker 6: Where are we?
Speaker 2: It is my last over seven and over seven and
Speaker 2: a half and have six homers head and it goes under.
Speaker 2: Will never happen?
Speaker 1: Oh that was that was amazing. That was the worst
Speaker 1: beat ever in baseball? Yeah? What was it? Eight to seven?
Speaker 1: And how it was? All?
Speaker 3: So?
Speaker 2: The overrunder was seven and a half? I had the
Speaker 2: over six home runs were oh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then four to three. That's right, all solo
Speaker 1: Jimmy Jackson, Okay, I am. I am with Steve. I
Speaker 1: hate to duplicate, but I thought I was gonna be
Speaker 1: the smarty pants and he beat me to it. I
Speaker 1: like the Steelers, and this is more of a Malcolm
Speaker 1: Gladwell blink thing or how many times do we remember
Speaker 1: steal the Steelers as dogs winning an opening game on
Speaker 1: like some special teams nonsense, or just the fact that TJ.
Speaker 1: Watt made an amazing play. That's the thing with the Steelers.
Speaker 1: They still have big playmakers on defense. And you're right
Speaker 1: about everything about the preseason Kenny Pickett looked as good
Speaker 1: as anybody in the entire preseason. I think the Brock
Speaker 1: Purty thing is the other thing I would add to this.
Speaker 1: Rock Purdy had a magic carpet ride last year, winning
Speaker 1: seven straight games before the whole injury game in the
Speaker 1: playoffs against the Eagles, him and Josh Johnson going out.
Speaker 1: He had a lot of babbit should have been interceptions
Speaker 1: that weren't. Todd calls them itches, interceptions that should that
Speaker 1: should have happened. Was that what we call it interceptions
Speaker 1: that should have that should have had poor football focus
Speaker 1: actually has a stout for this, which is called, like
Speaker 1: I think, turnover world worthy plays. This is different now
Speaker 1: that he's no longer the mystery relevant coming in as
Speaker 1: the backup and everybody loves him and there's you know,
Speaker 1: no pressure. You're the starter now. Not only are the starter,
Speaker 1: they traded that other dude, and so this is your team.
Speaker 1: And yes, Sam Darnold's lurking. Apparently he had a great
Speaker 1: off season two. So I think the dynamics a little
Speaker 1: different as well, a little more pressure. I like the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I'll take the points. I'll take the two and a half.
Speaker 1: That's my third which brings.
Speaker 2: By the way, we didn't do we didn't do our
Speaker 2: last year. In the beginning, we talked a little bit
Speaker 2: about in game Do we want to just maybe talk
Speaker 2: about some general in game strategy maybe for a minute
Speaker 2: or two.
Speaker 1: Well, it sounds like you'd like to what would you
Speaker 1: like to say? Share with her?
Speaker 2: Or we don't have to it's your show.
Speaker 1: Well no, usually, you know, I know that is usually
Speaker 1: what we do is we talk about something that happened
Speaker 1: the previous week.
Speaker 2: But it's week one, right, But I want to talk
Speaker 2: about a gentle thing, please do, please do. So here's
Speaker 2: a little general thing. A generalisiming in the National Football
Speaker 2: League very often late in football games and a fourteen
Speaker 2: point game, a team is losing by fourteen, they're coming
Speaker 2: down for the back door. So let's say the score,
Speaker 2: for instance, is twenty eight to fourteen. That's forty two.
Speaker 2: And often the books will put up a forty eight
Speaker 2: and a half or a forty nine and a half
Speaker 2: if they you know, if they think, you know, a
Speaker 2: touchdown versus a touchdown and more so, here's something that
Speaker 2: I think people need to pay attention to. And if
Speaker 2: it's twenty eight fourteen in my example, and they get
Speaker 2: a touchdown, you're thinking, okay, they'll kick the extra point.
Speaker 2: That's forty nine. Twenty eight to twenty one is forty nine.
Speaker 2: Not so fast, my friend. Everyone is going for two
Speaker 2: now down eight and now they're even doing it in
Speaker 2: other scenarios when they're down you know, seventeen and get
Speaker 2: a touchdown, or they're down in you know, they're doing
Speaker 2: it in all kinds of different wacky scenarios. So if
Speaker 2: you're betting in game and you see that there's six
Speaker 2: and a half more points on the line and you're thinking, oh,
Speaker 2: I think this team can get a backdoor touchdown and
Speaker 2: I'll win my over bet, wait just a second. You
Speaker 2: also have to consider if the team is going to
Speaker 2: go for two point conversion, which is about a fifty
Speaker 2: percent play, and that has to be figured also into
Speaker 2: your handicap. Steve, I'm sure you have opinions.
Speaker 5: On this, sure, And obviously the jet the dead Nuts
Speaker 5: play is to bet that the game will land, even
Speaker 5: dead nuts, because whether they score the touchdown or not,
Speaker 5: it's going to land even because the word is out
Speaker 5: your union buddies are talking when you're down fourteen to
Speaker 5: score a touchdown, and go for two. The Eagles pioneered this.
Speaker 5: It's amazing. It took the NFL thirty years to figure
Speaker 5: this out. The quick math that take me to ten seconds.
Speaker 5: The assumptions are, you're down fourteen, you're going to get
Speaker 5: two touchdowns, and your opponent's not going to score. All right,
Speaker 5: you can just kick the extra point twice. You got
Speaker 5: a fifty to fifty chance to win if you go
Speaker 5: for two, and we're gonna assume they you get a
Speaker 5: fifty percent of the time, might be a little aggressive.
Speaker 5: If you go for two after getting it the first
Speaker 5: time the first touchdown, you win sixty two and a
Speaker 5: half percent. You can map out all the permutations. It's
Speaker 5: pretty straightforward, and sixty two and a half percents bigger
Speaker 5: than fifty percent, so it's not even close. And yet
Speaker 5: for years a lot what a lot of teams, bad
Speaker 5: coaches would do is they kick after the first one
Speaker 5: and they go for two after the second one, which
Speaker 5: is totally oppo because if you if you if if
Speaker 5: you missed the sec the two point compre you'll lose.
Speaker 5: But if you miss it after your first touchdown, well
Speaker 5: then you know, okay, Now I go to the second time.
Speaker 1: It's a very easy mathematical tree, and inevitably, when it
Speaker 1: happens again, people will go crazy on Twitter. But let
Speaker 1: me just ask you, because you just what you said
Speaker 1: sort of gave the indication that you assume most of
Speaker 1: these teams are on board with this. What percentage of
Speaker 1: teams do you actually think are on board with this?
Speaker 5: Eighty percent of the NFL forty forty percent of the
Speaker 5: College for yeah, the word the words gone.
Speaker 1: You think it's gonna Wait a minute, hold on, you
Speaker 1: guys think eighty percent of NFL teams eighty percent? So
Speaker 1: what's that twenty six teams out of thirty two whatever
Speaker 1: it is that they would down fourteen would score and
Speaker 1: go for two. I don't buy that.
Speaker 5: The entire analytics team should be fired immediately if they don't,
Speaker 5: because it's already been solved.
Speaker 1: I agree with that, but I do not for one
Speaker 1: second believe it's eighty percent. So will you at least?
Speaker 5: I bet I'll go ahead and lay minus three fifty
Speaker 5: that that that on every occurrence that happens in the
Speaker 5: with with eight minutes to go or less, that that
Speaker 5: the teams will go for two in that situation.
Speaker 1: Will do you see it that way as well. Do
Speaker 1: you think it's that many would have too? I would
Speaker 1: have set old school that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that was Deely. It's interesting.
Speaker 4: Florida did it twenty one Florida Thursday night against you
Speaker 4: tak down twenty one, scored a touchdown, went for two
Speaker 4: and got it, which that's an unusual one.
Speaker 3: I don't remember seeing that one.
Speaker 5: That is the proper call. Also, by the way, yeah,
Speaker 5: same same concept.
Speaker 1: But that's I'm shocked that you guys are so sure
Speaker 1: it's eighty percent. I don't buy that at all.
Speaker 2: Like for me, it's not eighty, but it's definitely over.
Speaker 6: Four and a half. If I could be wrong, it
Speaker 6: could be seventy.
Speaker 2: The word is out, the word is out of this,
Speaker 2: and they're all doing it and they don't want to
Speaker 2: look dumb because the other smart teams are doing it.
Speaker 1: Are they all doing it? Like? I must have missed this.
Speaker 5: This is a line from from Wall Street the movie
Speaker 5: where we're I don't know what to make of it, Gordon,
Speaker 5: everybody's going for two when they're down eight.
Speaker 1: I I mean usually when we talk. I mean what
Speaker 1: I remember is when I come in and do guessing
Speaker 1: lines on Monday morning. Usually My line is is, now
Speaker 1: we have coaches who don't even know what is analytically
Speaker 1: correct or not, and they do or they do they
Speaker 1: do stuff that only is when it doesn't work. Oh
Speaker 1: that was analytics. When it does work, Oh it wasn't analytics.
Speaker 5: By the way, the Steelers are the team that I
Speaker 5: don't think is going to go for two down eight,
Speaker 5: despite the fact that oftentimes they go for two after
Speaker 5: their first touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Exactly right, Washington. I don't believe Ron Rivera is going
Speaker 1: for two. There's no chance unless he.
Speaker 2: Doesn't riverboat down fourteen. He only riverboats down ten.
Speaker 3: Is Belichick a go for two guy? Because I don't
Speaker 3: even know if he I don't even know if he is.
Speaker 2: Scenarios, But this is the great We should chart this.
Speaker 2: We should chart this.
Speaker 1: We should win the meg Yeah, we.
Speaker 2: Should say Okay, last week it happened, you know, five times,
Speaker 2: here's what to happen. I think it's very very interesting,
Speaker 2: and I think it's definitely over fifty percent.
Speaker 6: Now to be fair.
Speaker 5: To be fair, if you're a ten point favorite, you
Speaker 5: shouldn't go for two because your chance of winning an
Speaker 5: overtime is greater than sixty two and a half percent.
Speaker 1: So now you're asking for them to compete.
Speaker 5: To understand, I understand, so put put everything in, But
Speaker 5: I just wanted to disclube it doesn't make sense.
Speaker 2: That's interesting, but the original point, Steve, do you agree
Speaker 2: that people have to be more aware of the end
Speaker 2: game of permutations there? Because you know you're gonna have
Speaker 2: that scenario with the six and a half A lot
Speaker 2: of times those books will hang the.
Speaker 5: Forty eight a half eight, and then you inevitably you'll
Speaker 5: hear the light bears like why are they going for two?
Speaker 5: Like they haven't watched a football game. And you know,
Speaker 5: I will say this about the coaches, like we watch
Speaker 5: way more you know, football than they do. We watch
Speaker 5: the end game of every game. They have no idea.
Speaker 5: I mean, they got like one hundred thousand things.
Speaker 6: On their plate. They don't have time to watch any
Speaker 6: of these other games.
Speaker 1: I mean, guessing lines is nothing, but like I mean,
Speaker 1: besides the guessing of the lines, those recaps are nothing
Speaker 1: but one of these coaches doing like over and over again.
Speaker 1: So I mean, I'm.
Speaker 5: Shocked at announcers. Oh, I can't believe they're going for
Speaker 5: it here fourth and eight. It's like they're not going
Speaker 5: for it. It's the end of the first half. They're
Speaker 5: pretending to get the clock to run before they punt.
Speaker 1: Well, Will and I were talking about I mean, Chris
Speaker 1: Valor usually does the stuff, but we were watching the
Speaker 1: first college football game and there was a fumble forward
Speaker 1: and he was just he seemed incredulous, like he was like, oh,
Speaker 1: they get the first down. I was like, you know,
Speaker 1: the ball goes back to where he was like his
Speaker 1: simple stuff. You're like, Wow, everybody's not in mid season forms.
Speaker 2: So I don't about argue that people. I'm sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 4: Well no, I was gonna say about you masked New
Speaker 4: Mexico that opening week zero Saturday. New Mexico scores to
Speaker 4: make it a ten point game four and a half
Speaker 4: minutes left the on site kick, and I forget who
Speaker 4: the announcer was, Oh, this is way too early.
Speaker 3: You can't do that. I mean, its way too early. It's
Speaker 3: four minutes after the game, you're down by ten points.
Speaker 6: You need the ball, jeezy when it went in doubt.
Speaker 6: Whenever it's a close call, always be aggressive if you
Speaker 6: don't know what to do.
Speaker 5: It's rarely wrong to go for it on fourth down
Speaker 5: and it's rarely wrong to go for two when in doubt.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under on eighty percent. But that but
Speaker 1: that is a great it's a great in game point
Speaker 1: that you make, Todd. And the other one that I
Speaker 1: would bring up is, you know, the most basic of
Speaker 1: all is the whole two for one thing, right, Like
Speaker 1: I think if we gave just one one in game
Speaker 1: point that would be obvious to men, right, but maybe
Speaker 1: not to others. Is know who's getting the ball first
Speaker 1: in the second half, and if there is.
Speaker 2: Especially for the end of third QUARTERBT, the end of
Speaker 2: third QUARTERBT, that's available with books now if you know
Speaker 2: who's sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you, Gilly, but
Speaker 2: I'm very second about that a third QUARTERBT, if there's
Speaker 2: three minutes to go and one team has the ball.
Speaker 2: By the way, the NFL teams are much smarter about
Speaker 2: making sure they get the last possession. In the old days,
Speaker 2: they would rush down score with forty seven seconds off,
Speaker 2: the other team would get a field goal. Teams are
Speaker 2: getting smarter now. They're not rushing when they're at the
Speaker 2: plus forty five with forty five seconds. They slow it
Speaker 2: down and they make sure they get that last possession.
Speaker 2: So now the end of third quarter bet that you
Speaker 2: can have in a lot of books is huge. If
Speaker 2: you know who's getting the ball first to start the
Speaker 2: second half and you have the ball with two minutes
Speaker 2: to go, that has to be a gigantic, huge thing
Speaker 2: for the end of third bet. And I do not
Speaker 2: believe the algorithms have caught that yet.
Speaker 5: And pursuit to what Gilly said though, right after the
Speaker 5: games kickoff, the first thing I do is I take
Speaker 5: bike a green highlighter and I green every NFL the
Speaker 5: get starts with the ball because that way, I know gets.
Speaker 6: In the second half.
Speaker 5: And if you're betting live NBA, and I know this
Speaker 5: is difficult. Whoever wins the tip gets the ball to
Speaker 5: start the fourth quarter, they start with the first and
Speaker 5: the fourth quarter. And you could say that's trivial. No,
Speaker 5: it's worth half a point, half a points a lot.
Speaker 5: You know, be betting live late in the third quarter.
Speaker 1: See now, I do agree with you guys that that
Speaker 1: thing about the end of the first half and figuring
Speaker 1: out the timing that eighty percent of teams get that. Now,
Speaker 1: like Bill Belichick was the master at that right maximizing
Speaker 1: possessions and minimizing the opponents. I do agree that most
Speaker 1: of the league is on board with that, but that
Speaker 1: fourteen to eight to six thing, I don't believe it's
Speaker 1: eighty percent yet. I think I think it will really closer.
Speaker 2: You believe it's over fifty.
Speaker 1: I believe it's fifty. I'm not even gonna say over.
Speaker 6: It's past the tipping point.
Speaker 5: It's kind of like when when you win the coin toss,
Speaker 5: you're supposed to defer, And for years Belichick was like
Speaker 5: the first guy to do it every time, and then
Speaker 5: word got out where half the half the league started
Speaker 5: to defer, and then like two years later, everybody deferred
Speaker 5: because the memo got out. And I believe the memo
Speaker 5: has gotten out on the fourteen to eight to say.
Speaker 4: Okay, can we remember it more when peams go for
Speaker 4: two because it didn't happen for so long that it
Speaker 4: sticks in our brain, like when keeams kick the extra point.
Speaker 4: It doesn't really register when teams go for it.
Speaker 3: What we notice it more? That's what I think. I
Speaker 3: think it's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, teaser of the week. Is that what we
Speaker 1: do next? I believe it's teaser of the week two
Speaker 1: we're two teams six point teaser. Long teaser legs are
Speaker 1: not plentiful, but there are a few. Pittsburgh obviously leaps
Speaker 1: off the page as a possible long teaser leg two
Speaker 1: and a half through the three and the seven. There
Speaker 1: are others as well, including the Cleveland Browns, who are
Speaker 1: two and a half point dogs against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 1: Those are the two most glaring ones right off the top.
Speaker 1: I'm just sort of scanning away. The Jets will also
Speaker 1: be a long teaser leg on Monday night home against
Speaker 1: the Bills. I think I'm forgetting one obvious wound in
Speaker 1: here somewhere. Yeah, So anyway, and the Packers I suppose
Speaker 1: would be well Packers not quite don't.
Speaker 3: Quite qualify that mostly ones mostly.
Speaker 1: Yeah again, wong teaser legs, and I know Stevie will
Speaker 1: back me up on this. Totals matter here on long legs.
Speaker 1: Stanford Long real name John Ferguson, lived in San Diego,
Speaker 1: wrote the book on Sports Betting so many years ago.
Speaker 1: He identified the three most positive ev teaser legs home
Speaker 1: and road dogs of between one and a half and
Speaker 1: two and a half that you would tease through the
Speaker 1: three and the seven. And a home favorite of between
Speaker 1: seven and a half eight and a half that we
Speaker 1: would tease down through the seven and the three. It
Speaker 1: is total dependent, right, A total of let's just be crazy,
Speaker 1: sixty ain't the same as a total of forty. On this,
Speaker 1: the fewer points you have in a total, the more
Speaker 1: valuable each point is. It's the same reason why we
Speaker 1: don't recommend teasers, say in a sport like the NBA
Speaker 1: or college football, where intuitively you know those sports and
Speaker 1: the scoring to be more volatile.
Speaker 6: Good summary, good good summing.
Speaker 5: Check your rules at the books, because yeah, a lot
Speaker 5: of them have changed to some well like circle Now
Speaker 5: is mius one thirty?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 5: South points mius one thirty. God can't win playing teasers
Speaker 5: mius one thirty. So let me do the math here. So,
Speaker 5: if you're laying minus one twenty on a six point
Speaker 5: teaser each leg, you're essentially laying minus two eighty, all right,
Speaker 5: I know that sounds like that's crazy. So if you
Speaker 5: took if you took two eighty and you wagered it
Speaker 5: on your first leg of the teaser and it covers,
Speaker 5: that's like winning one hundred. Now you're taking three eighty
Speaker 5: and you're laying you know, two eighty again. So because
Speaker 5: of that, you know recognize there's a whole lot of
Speaker 5: extra veig and once it goes above minus one twenty,
Speaker 5: it really is not going to be viable.
Speaker 6: The math isn't going to work out.
Speaker 1: Stephen Vegas did this for us on a numbers game
Speaker 1: this morning. This is the Vegas Books stations in South
Speaker 1: Point minus one twenty five on six point teasers, bet
Speaker 1: MGM and Circum minus one thirty, Westgate and Boyd minus
Speaker 1: one forty Caesars who by the way, if you can
Speaker 1: get into the app in the first place, you're doing
Speaker 1: something special. Uh, they're They're not offering six point teasers
Speaker 1: right now. They're offering minus one thirty on six and
Speaker 1: a half, which is good, Which is good. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 5: And Caesar's Nevada. If you have a tie and a winner,
Speaker 5: or a tie and a loss, it gets greater to push.
Speaker 5: But if you do Caesar's in New Jersey, you lose.
Speaker 5: Oh it's a different rule at the same company.
Speaker 1: BETMGM Nevada is also a refund on a tie and
Speaker 1: a loss, which again blows people's minds.
Speaker 5: And so if you get the bad rules on the
Speaker 5: ties you have to always pick your number of points
Speaker 5: such that you can't land on an ineture to avoid
Speaker 5: that nasty rule.
Speaker 1: And the theory behind the refund is because you can't
Speaker 1: drop a teaser to a one team tease.
Speaker 6: That's right, right.
Speaker 1: Okay, by the way, just let me just say this
Speaker 1: about the Caesars Nevada app. I'm not I said this
Speaker 1: on a numbers game this morning. I'm not trying to
Speaker 1: be an ass but if anybody from Caesar's Eric Bigiot
Speaker 1: Will Hill, somebody is listening, fix the app.
Speaker 5: My god, it shouldn't be mandatory that every executive yes
Speaker 5: making six figures are higher.
Speaker 1: Oh, this is so true.
Speaker 5: It has to have an assignment where they have to
Speaker 5: be able to make ten basic bets. They have to
Speaker 5: be able to bet a teaser. They have to be
Speaker 5: able to bet a prop a season win. Right, you
Speaker 5: get where I'm going. Have to be able to buy
Speaker 5: try to buy app point and put each weight bet
Speaker 5: in for ten dollars each and make it a live bet.
Speaker 1: Oh and you have to do it with like a
Speaker 1: game star arts in five minutes.
Speaker 5: Go right, and believe me, if these executives actually bet
Speaker 5: on that app, they'd they'd be having some meetings with
Speaker 5: their IT people on it, which not be pretty one.
Speaker 1: All right, Stevie, two team six point teasers.
Speaker 5: All right, I'm going to vary a little bit from
Speaker 5: Wang and I very rarely do. And here's why. I
Speaker 5: feel strongly that the Washington Arizona line will either stay
Speaker 5: at seven or go up.
Speaker 6: All right. It's also a low total.
Speaker 5: I like that with teasing, So I am gonna use
Speaker 5: the Washington commander, the much despised Washington Commanders against an
Speaker 5: Arizona team. People are already talking about this team's gonna
Speaker 5: go winless. Well, if they go winless, probably gonna win
Speaker 5: that leg.
Speaker 6: Of the teasers.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna obviously put it in with Pittsburgh because if
Speaker 5: I like them plus two and a half, I'm gonna
Speaker 5: like them plus eight and a half. One caveat I
Speaker 5: want to give to everyone. I firmly believe with Survivor,
Speaker 5: your optimal play week one is to play Washington. All right,
Speaker 5: So if you're gonna play Washington and your Survivor picks
Speaker 5: recognize you're already got some exposure on the same bet
Speaker 5: basically here. So if you're gonna enter Survivor five times,
Speaker 5: maybe don't go crazy teasing.
Speaker 1: I mentioned that this morning on the show, which is like,
Speaker 1: you're gonna have so many we forget about the NFLCAS.
Speaker 1: You have so many competing interests at the same time,
Speaker 1: or they're all so aligned you're terrified that they're all
Speaker 1: gonna blow up.
Speaker 5: And it probably doesn't matter that much we have one.
Speaker 5: But as you go deeper, if you're in Survivor by
Speaker 5: the time you get the week ten, you know, don't
Speaker 5: shove all in with with If you have fifty thousand
Speaker 5: in Survivor equity, you don't have to tease that same
Speaker 5: team across the board like.
Speaker 6: In your normal Wong teasers. But in this case, yeah,
Speaker 6: I'm going.
Speaker 5: And the reason I shied away from the Jets and
Speaker 5: Science shied away from Cleveland I'm worried those games could
Speaker 5: go to three, so they'll no longer qualify me too.
Speaker 3: Will I'm gonna go. I'll use Pittsburgh.
Speaker 4: That game will probably be twenty three twenty somebody who wins,
Speaker 4: who knows who cares.
Speaker 3: I'll take the eight and a half.
Speaker 4: With Pittsburgh, and I'll use the j E. T S Jets, Jets,
Speaker 4: Jets my second leg up to eight.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 4: I just think this team is boy. Everyone says they're
Speaker 4: over hyped. I kind of think they're underrated. You look
Speaker 4: at their team last year. I mean, they were just
Speaker 4: so good in so many different spots, with really probably
Speaker 4: the worst quarterback play in the entire leagues. To give
Speaker 4: me the eight and half of the Jets, the eight
Speaker 4: and half with the stillers.
Speaker 1: All right, will you're a Jets guy? First three first
Speaker 1: six games before the buye Home Buffalo act? But oh yeah,
Speaker 1: that's right you are. I'm sorry, home Buffalo at Dallas home,
Speaker 1: New England home, Kansas City at Denver home Philly. You're
Speaker 1: a Mets fan or a Yankees fan. You're a Yankees fan.
Speaker 4: Right, a Yankees fan, but a disgruntled different Yankees.
Speaker 1: And at this point, okay, those six games I just
Speaker 1: mentioned for the Jets. You're the Jets front office, and
Speaker 1: I gave you truth. Serum. If I said, would you
Speaker 1: if I gave you three and three right now, would
Speaker 1: you take it? Your answer would be.
Speaker 3: Yes, have too.
Speaker 6: That's probably you know I'm gonna disagree.
Speaker 5: Really all right, And here's why I think directionally, you're
Speaker 5: right that their expectations only two point eight wins so
Speaker 5: that this would be better than expectation. But it's kind
Speaker 5: of like trying to win a sports betting contest right
Speaker 5: where you hit we did take sixty percent through the
Speaker 5: first five weeks.
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, and it's like yeah.
Speaker 5: Of course, no, no, no, you actually have negative equity
Speaker 5: because you're because now your chance of winning and making
Speaker 5: the final table, making the top ten, that's gone down.
Speaker 5: So your chance of getting home field and actually playing
Speaker 5: for a championship as the Jets goes down. If you
Speaker 5: if you start the year even you know, six and four,
Speaker 5: three and three, very.
Speaker 1: True, It's very true, Todd.
Speaker 2: I'm just looking at those six games. Three and three
Speaker 2: is going to be a little rough, don't you think?
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. That's why I asked the question, like,
Speaker 1: well that take three and three.
Speaker 5: Yeah, three and three exceeds expectations. But but but but
Speaker 5: but their chance of winning the super Bowl would go
Speaker 5: down if they're three and three.
Speaker 1: You understand, Yeah, I know.
Speaker 2: I'm just I was just looking at the games and
Speaker 2: I'm thinking, who are the who they could for sure win.
Speaker 2: Nathaniel Hackett's no longer in Denver to not be able
Speaker 2: to get the play in before the play clock goes.
Speaker 6: Try a ninety yard field goal with their field goal
Speaker 6: kicking mule.
Speaker 1: We will never have we been? Have we been? Through
Speaker 1: the worst two pitches?
Speaker 2: Here's my analytics question. Yeah, is it good to get
Speaker 2: the play in so that you don't get the the
Speaker 2: delay of game penalty before the play click goes out?
Speaker 1: Let me check on that. Hold on, I'm told it
Speaker 1: is good to get to play in.
Speaker 2: Yes, Oh, okay, because Nathaniel Hackett I think he's the
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator for some other team. So maybe you could
Speaker 2: look for a prop most delay of game penalties, I
Speaker 2: don't think they have that profit it would be a
Speaker 2: good one to get any Why.
Speaker 5: Doesn't everyone just copy Belichick every time you have a
Speaker 5: fourth and one all right past midfield, immediately the quarterback
Speaker 5: doesn't even check what the coach. The coach just goes zebra,
Speaker 5: and zebra means everyone rushed the line of scrimmage and
Speaker 5: quarterbacks sneak and you get it every time. Yeah, you
Speaker 5: know when Now, if you hem a hall On line
Speaker 5: up for twenty five second and then do it, you
Speaker 5: get stacked.
Speaker 2: Yes, the the the How about going in the shotgun?
Speaker 2: The best is to go in the shotgun on fourth
Speaker 2: and inches and blow it.
Speaker 1: You know, we love that. The home crowd derisive countdown
Speaker 1: of the play clock with Hackett is still the greatest
Speaker 1: thing ever, like never again, never before. When we see
Speaker 1: that that was so great.
Speaker 2: My season is going to be uh. The the uh
Speaker 2: commanders too. I just think that that the commander, well,
Speaker 2: I think Sam Howe is going to be good. I
Speaker 2: remember him from North Carolina and I really, I really
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be pretty good. And I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: with the insurs. I mean Injurs plus eight and a
Speaker 2: half in that, Yan's gotta think that our guy Tolman.
Speaker 2: By the way, everybody does the same teaser, Steve, before
Speaker 2: you you go crazy.
Speaker 6: I can show you the sheet.
Speaker 2: We're week after week. Everybody has the same teasers. So
Speaker 2: let's not go and create a federal case out of
Speaker 2: it in forty two indictments because I picked the same
Speaker 2: teasers you. If I would have gone first, you would
Speaker 2: have picked the same teaser for Okay, So so bottom
Speaker 2: lying here is the doors. They're good there. It's a
Speaker 2: home game. I already told you how how it's gonna
Speaker 2: be really hard to park down there, So don't even
Speaker 2: think you're getting home in time for the second game.
Speaker 2: Forget about that. You in's better just go down on
Speaker 2: Mike's and watch the games there to you know, the
Speaker 2: bar next BNC Park or what whatever. You're you're not
Speaker 2: getting home in time for the second games. I could
Speaker 2: just forget it. Forget that.
Speaker 5: People are getting very nervous that laid miss one to
Speaker 5: eighty on the Miami Dolphins song the pot is almost
Speaker 5: over and.
Speaker 3: Getting no Dolphins song.
Speaker 1: It's getting dicey.
Speaker 2: I haven't done that. I haven't done that. I haven't
Speaker 2: done that song in a while.
Speaker 1: Oh good, no second verse there, Will Will's and I
Speaker 1: will okay, Well, in Will's head right now, the thought
Speaker 1: bubble and Will's like, oh my god, I signed up
Speaker 1: for a year of this. I have the same exact team.
Speaker 2: Is what I got? You got? No?
Speaker 4: I just want because it's on my mind, so it's
Speaker 4: probably on some of the listeners minds. I just want,
Speaker 4: like thirty seconds from everybody. Have you guys gotten your
Speaker 4: YouTube TV situation straight out? Because I haven't? And how
Speaker 4: does that affect the why betting?
Speaker 1: Oh Will?
Speaker 2: I have a great point on this, Gilly, Can I
Speaker 2: make my point about this, about this YouTube thing.
Speaker 1: Of course, tod go ahead.
Speaker 2: Here's my thing. I am not buying the damn YouTube
Speaker 2: to be four thousand minutes behind the clock. So how
Speaker 2: am I going to bet in game when the commercials
Speaker 2: over and I haven't even seen the end of what
Speaker 2: happened on the YouTube. It's ridiculous. However, however, I did
Speaker 2: find out that Direct TV is still going to be
Speaker 2: doing the games for restaurants and for casinos, So the
Speaker 2: the feeds in casinos and restaurants are still going to
Speaker 2: be on the old direct which is only maybe like
Speaker 2: twenty five second find I think that's gonna make a big,
Speaker 2: big difference, especially if you like endgame. So I am
Speaker 2: already mapping out which restaurants I'm going to, and I
Speaker 2: may go down to the Rivers and try to watch
Speaker 2: down there. Of course, you have to pay eight thousand
Speaker 2: dollars for a seat, but I know somebody bu bah bah.
Speaker 2: That's a whole nother problem. But of course you can't
Speaker 2: use the apps. You can't use the apps in the
Speaker 2: River's Casino. You cannot use the bet Rivers app in
Speaker 2: the River's Casino. Tell me why. You'll never explain it
Speaker 2: to me. It's ridiculous. You're the only one you can
Speaker 2: use down there, standal, you can't even use half the
Speaker 2: other one. It's really the whole thing is It just
Speaker 2: drives me absolutely mind boggling crazies. These causers making eight
Speaker 2: hundred billion on this damn National Football League. They need
Speaker 2: more money and they got to stick us with fifty
Speaker 2: second delay with YouTube. Give me a break.
Speaker 1: Cocoa Golf for the match six love, five to two
Speaker 1: her ad against Elena Ostapenko.
Speaker 5: Oh, Ostapenko just Withdrew. If I was on golf, That's
Speaker 5: exactly what would happen.
Speaker 1: Ostapenko, who beat the world, the former world number one.
Speaker 1: That was very nice, Todd. I just want to say
Speaker 1: this because Stevie was looking. I wonder he was going
Speaker 1: to say the same thing as I was. Believe it
Speaker 1: or not, And I know you won't believe this. YouTube
Speaker 1: TV is closer to real time than Cox Cable is
Speaker 1: here in Las Vegas.
Speaker 6: It's like fifty seconds.
Speaker 1: It's two.
Speaker 6: It's two players that I'm behind, not one, it's two.
Speaker 1: I feel like YouTube TV. I was like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: I'm only one point behind in this tennis match, not
Speaker 1: two and a half.
Speaker 5: And I'm meeting with these these providers are saying, well,
Speaker 5: we should be able to better whether the next play
Speaker 5: is going to be a passer or run. And it's like,
Speaker 5: how could the consumer ever be able to bet on
Speaker 5: the only time you can bet during TV timeouts, you're
Speaker 5: too far behind.
Speaker 2: And even then, Steve, if you don't hurry on the
Speaker 2: TV timeout, if you're a minute behind, that's right, that
Speaker 2: means you only have a minute during the commercial. You
Speaker 2: don't even know that the game has already started again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's tough, you know. It's almost like they
Speaker 1: don't want us betting.
Speaker 5: That is the goal I firmly believe of a lot
Speaker 5: of people with their apps on live betting, the number
Speaker 5: one goal is don't allow the square ball that wants
Speaker 5: to just lose his money to you. It's right, do
Speaker 5: everything possible. The line changes, like from minus one ten
Speaker 5: to minus one to fifteen and he's betting five dollars
Speaker 5: a line has changed. It's like, well, every time the
Speaker 5: line changes and line has changed, like, you can't take
Speaker 5: a ten dollars bet, you know, within some to Lawrence,
Speaker 5: come on, that's.
Speaker 1: One of my favorite Steve Fezik thing is the is
Speaker 1: like our number one rule is to not take money
Speaker 1: from these people, just like you were talking about like
Speaker 1: the cardinal rules on special teams that all these players
Speaker 1: don't abide by anymore.
Speaker 5: So the other rules real quickly are that that I,
Speaker 5: if you're punting the ball, all right, the defense is
Speaker 5: attempting to rough the kicker and jump off side.
Speaker 1: That's the first rule.
Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, But should the punter get the ball off.
Speaker 5: Now the punting team their return team. Their goal is
Speaker 5: to knock the ball into the end zone. But the
Speaker 5: returning team the kicker. His job is to attempt to
Speaker 5: field the ball inside the five yard line and fumble it.
Speaker 1: Always while while his teammates hold. If there is a return.
Speaker 2: The inside the five, the inside the five catching the ball.
Speaker 2: It drives me so crazy. The guys standing on the
Speaker 2: ten yard line, what you moved backwards and don't catch it?
Speaker 5: Yeah, and don't start on your own twenty five on
Speaker 5: a kickoff, go ahead and try to field it right
Speaker 5: on your goal line, kind of like be unclear whether
Speaker 5: you're in or out, and then return it to the
Speaker 5: twelve and then have cut back at the last second
Speaker 5: so you get a holding call.
Speaker 6: So you can start on your sixth.
Speaker 1: You're right too, that is the most egregious of all
Speaker 1: of them, because from the beginning, from the dawn of
Speaker 1: football time, that's been a fundamental right. You plant yourself
Speaker 1: on the ten and if the ball goes over your head,
Speaker 1: you let it go. How difficult is that? Apparently it's
Speaker 1: very doe.
Speaker 5: And the other team's just gonna knock it into the
Speaker 5: end zone. Even if the punter a dead digging mortar,
Speaker 5: kicks it to the two. They'll do your job for you.
Speaker 2: Because those guys, the Navy Seal team is running down
Speaker 2: on the pond coverage. They're going to run at the
Speaker 2: ball at five hundred miles an hour, and somehow.
Speaker 1: My teasers the same. It's the Steelers up to the
Speaker 1: eight and a half. It is the Skinnies down to
Speaker 1: basically just having to beat the Commandos. Excellent than you
Speaker 1: appreciate it.
Speaker 2: When Guild does it, he says, oh, great work. When
Speaker 2: I do it, oh you coughing? Well, fine, Stevie. And
Speaker 2: then don't copy any in game college basketball. In fact,
Speaker 2: I'll just give you the opposite side. How do you
Speaker 2: like them? Apples?
Speaker 1: By the way, if there was ever a must win
Speaker 1: situation in week one. This is it if Washington Camp
Speaker 1: beat Arizona the tanking Cardinals. Good God about Survivor, because
Speaker 1: we're gonna if you want to give a Survivor play,
Speaker 1: you can a couple points about this one. I've said
Speaker 1: this on a numbers game many times. I believe there's
Speaker 1: a point of redundancy in entries. So I only got
Speaker 1: five because I think if you go more than that,
Speaker 1: you're just playing it the same way, just doubled, just multiplied,
Speaker 1: So you're gonna lose picks at this at just a
Speaker 1: higher rate. The object is to get multiple entries by
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving in circa. But I don't believe it's a function
Speaker 1: of how many entries you start with. I believe it's
Speaker 1: a function of how you play the game. So I
Speaker 1: stayed at five. You brought up the fact that Washington
Speaker 1: is the optimal play week one. I think that's true
Speaker 1: because not only is it against Arizona, which is a
Speaker 1: strategy in and of itself to just fade the Cardinals
Speaker 1: every week, but there's probably not a natural place to
Speaker 1: play the Commanders later either, the question becomes what percentage
Speaker 1: of a pool of a Survivor pool do you believe
Speaker 1: will be on the Commanders. I'll give you forty percent
Speaker 1: over or under.
Speaker 5: My first number was forty percent because more people will
Speaker 5: inevitably take Baltimore.
Speaker 1: They're just because it's ten.
Speaker 6: Survive in advance.
Speaker 5: You know that's like, well, no one wants you know
Speaker 5: what you don't want to get you have if you
Speaker 5: have five entries, you don't want to shove with a
Speaker 5: seven point favorite and not put and not put that
Speaker 5: ten point You want to have some advance.
Speaker 1: One should be in there. The game theory of it being, well,
Speaker 1: if you know forty are going to be on this
Speaker 1: one team, you certainly don't want to have all of
Speaker 1: yours on it.
Speaker 5: Though, And there is the funky rule that I brought
Speaker 5: up with you about that you can you can enter
Speaker 5: Survivor up to Sunday, yeah, or Saturday night and the
Speaker 5: but you can.
Speaker 6: Play the Thursday games.
Speaker 5: So if should Kansas City, some people in heavily would
Speaker 5: just I'll just shove with Kansas City and put my
Speaker 5: ten entries in invite Lewis, I'll re enter like talking
Speaker 5: about the week one, yeah, Daniel and the Grano style
Speaker 5: I read buy so because that normally there wouldn't be
Speaker 5: that many people taking Kansas City is not an optimal
Speaker 5: player or anything close to. But because it's Thursday night,
Speaker 5: you're going to see that. So should Kansas City lose
Speaker 5: to Detroit, yeah, I am compelled to immediately enter two
Speaker 5: at times because now I'm getting a ten percent overlaly,
Speaker 5: not from Circa, there's not gonna be an overlay, but
Speaker 5: from all the people that dunked off their chips with
Speaker 5: the strategy.
Speaker 1: So you if Kansasity wins, you will not play Survivor
Speaker 1: at all.
Speaker 5: If I play, I have to recognize I'm paying like
Speaker 5: a three percent rake. I say, abe, I'll still play,
Speaker 5: but I'm playing. But I'm playing with.
Speaker 6: The rake because it's because they're one notes.
Speaker 5: It's almost like a free throw shooting contest where we
Speaker 5: all shoot like seventy five percent and I'm gonna have
Speaker 5: to play against ten percent of the group that made
Speaker 5: their first free throw.
Speaker 6: Well, it is the way I would put it.
Speaker 1: That's your mathematical brain kicking in. I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of people who are going to play Detroit right
Speaker 1: hoping for the Detroit win and if they lose. If
Speaker 1: Kansas City wins, they're just going to re up and buy.
Speaker 5: I'll put the over under and how many people played Detroit.
Speaker 5: If there's I would I would say six. You think
Speaker 5: it's that few that will play it down.
Speaker 6: I'll go six. You want to go over under?
Speaker 1: Go over?
Speaker 6: Really?
Speaker 2: Dinner?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, dinner, dinner, dinner? How many is like dinner?
Speaker 1: I'll just use my points, I'll just the other way.
Speaker 2: There isn't there is. There is an example though, with
Speaker 2: when you play Horse against stevezi Gill and you're standing
Speaker 2: at about eighteen feet out and just banking endless bankers
Speaker 2: off of them. You can give them any advantage possible.
Speaker 2: You can give him a twenty five percent overlay. They're
Speaker 2: never going to beat you in Horse if you can
Speaker 2: endlessly hit bank shots from eighteen feet.
Speaker 5: So for like two years I heard Todd tell me
Speaker 5: about what a star he was and how he was
Speaker 5: the Jewish Jordan. Yeah, And you know, for all this talk,
Speaker 5: I don't see it. So we play Horse and I
Speaker 5: don't like. I don't own a basketball, so I haven't
Speaker 5: shot like in twenty years, And I got an ho
Speaker 5: r on him, and I can see the like beads
Speaker 5: of perspiration he has to go to is like, and
Speaker 5: he knows I'm an analytics guy. So it's like, I'll
Speaker 5: just shoot the sixteen eighteen foot Jumperveesig never shoots that
Speaker 5: because he only shot threes, so he rolled me.
Speaker 1: Then let me just ask you one. I won't hold
Speaker 1: you all to a Survivor pick because some of us
Speaker 1: have multiple entries. But if I said to you, you
Speaker 1: couldn't take any of the top four dog any of
Speaker 1: the top four favorites in Survivor. So not the Ravens,
Speaker 1: not the Commanders, not the Vikings. And what's the fourth one?
Speaker 1: Not the not the uh there's one other that's like six, oh,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. If what would be what would be the
Speaker 1: team besides those four that you might play on a
Speaker 1: Survivor entry. I said the Broncos, but the Eagles.
Speaker 2: I know you need the Eagles probably, I said the Broncos.
Speaker 6: I don't have one. I'll say this, yeah, a bold prediction.
Speaker 1: Tampa could could be Minnesota Tampa easily.
Speaker 6: That's that's your favorite.
Speaker 1: That might be the next question that's at the end
Speaker 1: of the show. But yeah, aren't it. That's okay, Well,
Speaker 1: let's get to those final two questions.
Speaker 3: Shout Seattle, by the way, that would be my pick.
Speaker 1: Seattle all right. So then the final two questions, as
Speaker 1: always with the end of every megapod, which Stevie just
Speaker 1: just sort of give a portend of, which is which
Speaker 1: big big favorite is the most likely to lose out right?
Speaker 1: Which game do you want no part of? Which is
Speaker 1: an interesting question on week one more than any because
Speaker 1: I think there's a ton of them. But which big
Speaker 1: favorite most legally lose out right? You say THEA to
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay because you think we're underrating Tampa Bay in
Speaker 1: some way.
Speaker 5: I know, I think I just think Minnesoa it could
Speaker 5: it was a blow a slightly below average team by
Speaker 5: and and and and I think they didn't get any better.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so the wheels could come off this year.
Speaker 1: The wheels could come off, doesn't mean they'll come off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Gus, they're a high variance team. They're they're They're
Speaker 2: the kind of team where Kirk Cousins can throw you
Speaker 2: two pick sixes or fumble the ball when he's back
Speaker 2: in the in the in the pocket, and of course
Speaker 2: turnovers are what make NFL upsets. So you've got mister
Speaker 2: Cousins in the pocket, they striped, sack them two times,
Speaker 2: and you win the game. That's how an NFL upset happens,
Speaker 2: and they're a high variance team for that. Sure they
Speaker 2: can look great, but they can also make all kinds
Speaker 2: of mistakes. With mister Curtis's Cousins discuss did you.
Speaker 1: See quarterbacks on Netflix? Outstanding? Yeah, that was It's so
Speaker 1: much better than hard knock.
Speaker 5: So analytical. I had no idea these guys had to
Speaker 5: study so much. No wonder like these these quarterbacks like
Speaker 5: fail miserably. You know that, don't put in the hours
Speaker 5: with the playbook.
Speaker 1: It's so that's it, right, it's it was soot.
Speaker 3: I disagree.
Speaker 4: Cousins takes Tuesdays off to go to the library in
Speaker 4: the middle of the season. Tuesdays, I do no football.
Speaker 4: I just go to the library and I read books
Speaker 4: during the season.
Speaker 1: What is this? That's true? He did, and he was
Speaker 1: so nice in the libraries.
Speaker 6: What he wasn't out clubbing until three am?
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was so polite. But the point I was
Speaker 1: trying to make about that is, like the fight, they
Speaker 1: do a great job of going through all these guys seasons, right,
Speaker 1: whether it's Mary Odor Mahomes. But in the case of Cousins,
Speaker 1: like we forget maybe we don't, but I forgot how
Speaker 1: unbelievable that Viking season was, like the nature of something
Speaker 1: that that Buffalo game will will endure forever.
Speaker 2: How about thirty three? Nothing?
Speaker 1: How about thirty and the comeback and the greatest comeback
Speaker 1: in the history of the NFL.
Speaker 5: Oh cool was the Vikings coach? He's you know, I
Speaker 5: didn't call that quarterback sneak?
Speaker 6: You fumbled? Yeah, you might want to. He was so controlled.
Speaker 5: I was like you could just see me like like
Speaker 5: internet fasick would have like benched him for the rest
Speaker 5: of the year.
Speaker 1: Therenet pick I should really ask that question. Well, just
Speaker 1: want because I asked you about Brad Powers earlier. You
Speaker 1: are such a knife said this to you before. You're
Speaker 1: such a nice guy in real life, such a smart guy.
Speaker 1: What happens to you on the Internet? Do you have
Speaker 1: this inside of you? What is this DNA strain that
Speaker 1: makes you want to police the gambling world and become
Speaker 1: that hate able on Twitter?
Speaker 5: Why I gave my brother Andy access, so it's him,
Speaker 5: it's him bright No, no, no, no, it's just a
Speaker 5: it's a flaw. It's a flaw. I got improved. I'm
Speaker 5: this is this is what.
Speaker 1: Todd has always said is about this is what we
Speaker 1: like about you, that you're able to be.
Speaker 2: It goes back to dungeons and dragons, the dungeons and
Speaker 2: Dragons from the eighties. Yeah, and you know, touching boobies.
Speaker 2: That's what all this stuff goes back to. And if
Speaker 2: we want to get into a deep psychological discussion, we
Speaker 2: all have our weaknesses. I obviously have more than most,
Speaker 2: but my friend Stevie probably was, you know, very into
Speaker 2: the dungeons and dragons and maybe not getting that touches
Speaker 2: my boobies as possible. So he has to he has
Speaker 2: to tell everyone he's the greatest of all.
Speaker 5: You know, people say I got rejected in high school,
Speaker 5: like like, that's like you have you have to like
Speaker 5: get to the plate, you have to swing, you know,
Speaker 5: to get rejected.
Speaker 1: Not even that far, so, Todd, you're saying that the
Speaker 1: that the less so touching of boobies is inversely functional
Speaker 1: to gambling, brash gambling Twitter.
Speaker 2: This is not really about Steve. I'm just kidding. I'm
Speaker 2: kidding about Stevie. I love Stevie, but I do think
Speaker 2: there is definitely a strain of you know, guy on
Speaker 2: the internet who who has figured out that you know,
Speaker 2: fourth and nine is better than fourth and three, and
Speaker 2: he has to try to tell everybody. And the reasoning
Speaker 2: behind that is not that he just needs the information himself.
Speaker 2: But it comes back to what happened, you know, as
Speaker 2: a sixteen year old when there was a girl he
Speaker 2: liked and he was too scared to go up to her.
Speaker 2: But that's just a armchair psychology.
Speaker 6: Who was self aware to go after her.
Speaker 5: By the way, I seem to get everybody in trouble,
Speaker 5: you know, like Will Hill comes with this beautiful family.
Speaker 6: To Las Vegas.
Speaker 5: I get him kicked out of it because you know,
Speaker 5: it's a problem I have.
Speaker 1: That is awesome. Uh think before we conclude this, get
Speaker 1: the last two questions together wrapped up. You just said
Speaker 1: something there are also that trigger something todd which you
Speaker 1: said fourth and nine or whatever, first and goal at
Speaker 1: the ten? Do we agree that there is some sort
Speaker 1: of in game opportunity if you can get it right
Speaker 1: there that it is much more difficult?
Speaker 2: I said that that was yours. My favorite thing. That
Speaker 2: was the first and goal at the nine or ten
Speaker 2: is extremely difficult to get the ball in in college,
Speaker 2: but even more so in the NFL. And I think
Speaker 2: that for end game, you know now, And that's a
Speaker 2: situation where you can't really do it at commercial unless
Speaker 2: the commercial happened right when it was first and goal
Speaker 2: right ten. Right, But if you can rush and get
Speaker 2: that in somehow first and you like the other side anyways,
Speaker 2: first and goal at the ten is very difficult to
Speaker 2: get it in.
Speaker 5: And if the other team has this is a high
Speaker 5: level analytics. And I hope some NFL team is listening.
Speaker 5: If another team is like second and three from the fifteen,
Speaker 5: you should jump off sides automatically. You should let them
Speaker 5: go to the ten.
Speaker 1: Oh now that now, what are the chances of a
Speaker 1: team you'll never get ever getting there?
Speaker 6: Oh, they'll do it, Yeah, eventually, it'll it'll they'll do it.
Speaker 2: Yes, you said this.
Speaker 3: He made jump off sides on purpose.
Speaker 1: I think you're right, Will.
Speaker 5: In the four minute drill, when the team has the
Speaker 5: ball second and two, like the team recognized that they're
Speaker 5: just gonna run off another ninety seconds, just just jump
Speaker 5: off side, give them the first down and now we'll
Speaker 5: stop them.
Speaker 6: When they run.
Speaker 1: I think Will is right right. But Ravens did do
Speaker 1: it one time, I.
Speaker 2: Believe, Yeah, Gebe when I brought this first and goal
Speaker 2: thing up at the ten Last year you said, I
Speaker 2: said teams should try to get the other team at
Speaker 2: first and ten, and you said they're going to start
Speaker 2: doing it just and you didn't say the thing about
Speaker 2: the off sides. Of the off sides, that's a brilliant idea,
Speaker 2: actually to jump off side from the fifteen or the
Speaker 2: fourteen on second and.
Speaker 5: Three, just like on the first down play update, you
Speaker 5: don't want to gain eleven yards, you want to gain
Speaker 5: seven or eight. It's better to gain seven or eight
Speaker 5: yards on first down than eleven.
Speaker 1: It is so much better as an optimal strategy to
Speaker 1: jump off sides there. It's it's almost like, as you
Speaker 1: say it, it's like such a no brainer. And yet
Speaker 1: we've been locked into this way of thinking forever. It's
Speaker 1: always done this way, so it's always gonna be this way.
Speaker 1: But it's so true established the run, but big established it.
Speaker 4: If that becomes a thing that the offense can just
Speaker 4: be smart enough to decline the penalties, which I mean,
Speaker 4: you're getting to another level of things.
Speaker 5: Why you need a good you need to be a
Speaker 5: good actor, and you ahead that's always going like like
Speaker 5: you're jumping outside to do it again.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what Steve said, This is the point I wanted
Speaker 2: to do where And Steve's right. We watched so many
Speaker 2: more games than these guys. These guys are busy doing
Speaker 2: X and O, and they're thinking about, Hey, Jim, did
Speaker 2: you get the technique on the defensive end. You know
Speaker 2: he's not getting down in the stands good enough. We
Speaker 2: gotta do that or else he's gonna get killed by
Speaker 2: the left tackle. You know, that's what they're working about.
Speaker 2: That we watch eight billion games. Fact, I would be
Speaker 2: so far as to tell you if I never saw
Speaker 2: a team play, I don't know anything about the teams.
Speaker 2: But I've watched two hundred college football games, and now
Speaker 2: this is the two hundred and first I know nothing
Speaker 2: about the teams. I would have a better chance of
Speaker 2: in game winning than a person who knows everything about
Speaker 2: those teams, but both watching.
Speaker 5: Those the most extreme example, in a high total game,
Speaker 5: I know this is ridiculous.
Speaker 6: There's two minutes to play, you're tied.
Speaker 5: You got fourth and goal from the one I would
Speaker 5: almost rather take a knee to kick a field goal.
Speaker 6: So think about it.
Speaker 1: Wait, say again, So.
Speaker 6: It's twenty seven.
Speaker 5: All I have fourth and goal on the one yard line,
Speaker 5: there's two minutes to play. I have two choices. I
Speaker 5: can take a knee or kick a field goal. I
Speaker 5: don't know which is right. So obviously what I'm saying
Speaker 5: is you clear, we have to go for the touchdown
Speaker 5: because you couldn't get the touchdown sixty you know, percent
Speaker 5: of the time. But even if you don't make it,
Speaker 5: kicking the field goal is worthless. If I'm up three
Speaker 5: and the other team is the ball.
Speaker 1: I see what you're saying.
Speaker 6: I'm close to fifty to fifty. If I stick you
Speaker 6: on the one, I'm winning, right, I am?
Speaker 1: I am?
Speaker 6: I had at that.
Speaker 1: You're not saying it's logical. What you're saying is that
Speaker 1: that that percentage wise, it's almost like keep taking a
Speaker 1: knee is almost as good. Yeah.
Speaker 6: It just shows what a donk move it is to
Speaker 6: kick the field goal.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm talking about this one.
Speaker 2: Faz.
Speaker 4: You're down three with four men to go, you score
Speaker 4: a touchdown, you kick the extra point to go up four,
Speaker 4: or was you rather take a knee and be up three?
Speaker 4: I know it's crazy, but is that a reasonable question?
Speaker 5: You know, it's actually a reasonable question because when you
Speaker 5: go up four, then the other team knows exactly what
Speaker 5: they need. If you're only up three, how often do
Speaker 5: you see that, Like a team's a team's down three
Speaker 5: or two months to go, and they matriculate down trying
Speaker 5: to get in the field goal range, right, and so
Speaker 5: they're either going to tie you or they're gonna lose
Speaker 5: to you. But if you're up four, uh oh, here
Speaker 5: comes the hook and lateral and everything, the four downs
Speaker 5: and all that crap, and then ultimately they wind up winning.
Speaker 1: That's fascinating. Yeah, we were solving all the football's problems here.
Speaker 1: If only I would love to see some team do that.
Speaker 1: We talk about what people's heads would explode, but it
Speaker 1: makes sense. Well, well, same question, he said. Fez said,
Speaker 1: Minnesota biggest favorite, likely lose out right, You say.
Speaker 3: Biggest favorite, like I'm gonna go. I'll throw a little
Speaker 3: curveball at the Kansasy.
Speaker 4: They have all sorts of issues on defense now, cluster injuries, holdouts.
Speaker 4: These first games, they it's a mixed bag. They can
Speaker 4: be a little wonky. Where the team is tight, they
Speaker 4: get their rings. Maybe they're distracted, I'll say, Detroit, you.
Speaker 5: Know these teams getting the rings though have kicked. But
Speaker 5: like the past twenty fifth every time, every time, like
Speaker 5: the money comes against them. Yeah, and it's coming against
Speaker 5: Kansas City or and then they just whack.
Speaker 1: Didn't used to be that Wams got killed last year,
Speaker 1: though that's true. Rams did get killed. So he says
Speaker 1: Kansas City Todd.
Speaker 2: I mean, just to be a contrarian here, I don't
Speaker 2: know if you'll count this as a big favorite, but
Speaker 2: they're five and a half. The Jaguars are five and
Speaker 2: a half against the Colts, and I wouldn't be super
Speaker 2: duper duper shocked to see the Colts at home. You know,
Speaker 2: this new offensive coordinator worked with Jalen Hurts and now
Speaker 2: he's got another running quarterback. Maybe they could, you know,
Speaker 2: stir something up and figure something out.
Speaker 1: I am going to say the Minnesota Vikings, just for
Speaker 1: the reasons we stated like that'd be the one where
Speaker 1: would you be like completely shocked at the Vikings Layden
Speaker 1: egg and then it was a tight game at the end,
Speaker 1: and then they need to score Laden Cousin does something bad.
Speaker 1: I really wouldn't. It wouldn't shock anybody, I don't think.
Speaker 1: Last question, and there's a lot of answers to this.
Speaker 1: I think this week, if you lived in a bizarre world,
Speaker 1: and you had to bet a side on each and
Speaker 1: every one of these games in week one, all sixteen
Speaker 1: but one. You get a free pass. You don't have
Speaker 1: to touch one of them. What's the game? You want
Speaker 1: no part of whatsoever on the side.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna give you two of them, Okay, all right,
Speaker 5: And this is gonna be a different answer than you're
Speaker 5: gonna get all year long.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 5: As a professional, better, I focus on spreads that matter,
Speaker 5: all right. So when the spread is like around one
Speaker 5: or two, I'm teasing right. If it seems like an
Speaker 5: eight point favorite, I'm teasing it down. If it's around
Speaker 5: the three or the seven, I'm trying to get the
Speaker 5: best of the number. And like a lot of these
Speaker 5: games qualify across the board where there's like there's no
Speaker 5: way I cannot bet the Buffalo Jets game because I'm
Speaker 5: either looking to late two and a half or take three.
Speaker 5: Same with Cincinnati Cleveland. However, there's two games lined on five.
Speaker 5: Who cares if I get miss four and a half
Speaker 5: or miss four even or plus five and a half
Speaker 5: or even plus six. None of those numbers are really
Speaker 5: worth very much. And so because of that, Jacksonville, Indy
Speaker 5: and the Rams. Eh, you know I'm not gonna I'm
Speaker 5: not gonna be able to steal. It's very unlike I'm
Speaker 5: gonna be able to steal win with good rogue shopping.
Speaker 1: That You're right, that is a answer we will not
Speaker 1: get all year Loan, Will, Will Hill, everybody from Fox.
Speaker 1: I love saying that.
Speaker 3: Now I will go Ravens Texans.
Speaker 4: I want no part of Stroud on the road in
Speaker 4: Baltimore or Baltimore team that might be improved, but I'm
Speaker 4: not looking away double digits, especially a team that's retinkered
Speaker 4: their offense. Maybe there's certa adjustment period. So Ravens Texans
Speaker 4: pretty easy pass for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, with the Ravens and Survivor like
Speaker 1: it just because it's the top favorite, I think there's
Speaker 1: actually a justification if you don't think the Ravens, like
Speaker 1: Will just said, if you don't think the Ravens are
Speaker 1: gonna be all that spectacular, maybe you do just play
Speaker 1: them also as a as a team you just don't
Speaker 1: want to have to deal with later against the Texans.
Speaker 2: Todd, I don't know about this Rams Seahawks game. I mean,
Speaker 2: last time we checked in with the Rams. They were
Speaker 2: just in complete disarray. And what's going to be down
Speaker 2: to the new thing? Does Cooper Cup have ham strings?
Speaker 2: Does he not have ham strings? We're not really sure.
Speaker 1: Pretty sure, I'm pretty sure he has.
Speaker 2: He still, Yeah, I've had some bad hamstring before. That's
Speaker 2: some bad stuff. But no, I don't. I don't. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure about what this Rams team is at all.
Speaker 2: And I think there's a lot of variants of what
Speaker 2: they could theoretically be.
Speaker 1: I could pick a bunch here, I could pick Dolphins, Chargers,
Speaker 1: I could pick Bengals, Browns. Ultimately, I'm gonna go Packers Bears.
Speaker 1: I think that's the one where there is no outcome.
Speaker 1: I would be surprised by none. Packers blowout, Packers close
Speaker 1: to wind, Bears blow.
Speaker 6: Out, but the Bears still suck Hill.
Speaker 1: They all could suck.
Speaker 2: Bears fourteen to ten. It's fourth and two twenty two
Speaker 2: seconds left. Here, Jordan Love inside the Bear's ten yard line,
Speaker 2: at the eight yard line, back to pass. He rolls
Speaker 2: to the He's inside the five. What football the Bears
Speaker 2: have it? The Bears cover and Stevie goes down.
Speaker 6: Wait, wait, there's a flag on the.
Speaker 1: It's a flag. I think that's the appropriate way to
Speaker 1: end this. Appreciated guys. Week one always fun. The megapot
Speaker 1: is back Steve Feszick only back to back, Hilton Super
Speaker 1: Contest Champion. Thank you for doing this. We'll do it again, honored.
Speaker 1: Thank you my man. Uh and uh first time on
Speaker 1: the show. Will Hill from Fox Sports, How good does
Speaker 1: that sound? Will you like that? Fox Sports? Will Hill?
Speaker 3: I get used to it. I like it all right.
Speaker 1: The Bear Podcast, that's what it is, The Bear.
Speaker 3: Podcast, Bear Bets Podcast.
Speaker 1: Okay, Thursdays, the Bear Bets Podcast. And yeah, Will, by
Speaker 1: the way, for those who didn't get it, because I
Speaker 1: didn't get it out of him. He's like the funniest
Speaker 1: human being alive. So we promise to get more funny
Speaker 1: out of him. Coming up, Todd wish to have everybody
Speaker 1: from his mom's cork attic. Thank you Todd? Or do
Speaker 1: we cut off his mic? He's doing the mouth thing
Speaker 1: like he doesn't want to talk to I wish Dev,
Speaker 1: who could be found on on Twitter at t wish Dev,
Speaker 1: Staru show Times, docu series Action for which he still
Speaker 1: gets recognized. By the way, everywhere we go buffet, there's
Speaker 1: like two women that are like, ain't you the guy
Speaker 1: from Action? And Todd's like, I sure am, thanks for noticing.
Speaker 1: Would you like my autogram? Thank you? Todd.
Speaker 2: Lady was telling me I should be dating Diana.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you were with Deanna. They noticed them. Are you
Speaker 1: guys still together? It's a beautiful thing. Thank you all
Speaker 1: for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Week one
Speaker 1: of the National Football League