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Speaker 1: The volume back again with my man Stucky from Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: You know, rough loss the other night to the Dookies,

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Speaker 1: but it is coach K's last year. You know, Kentucky

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Speaker 1: Conduck be fine. You know the SEC. Uh, they the

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Speaker 1: favorite to win the SEC this year. You think Stucky? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean all about yeah Kentucky, I think is come

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. Once coach cow part this

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Speaker 1: seems usually start slow and a lot of times it's

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Speaker 1: a lot of freshman This year there's also a bunch

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Speaker 1: of transfers in the mix and then he starts to

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Speaker 1: have them rolling towards you know, February March. Um, I

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Speaker 1: think you're the most talented team by far in the SEC.

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Speaker 1: Alabama lost a couple of key pieces, but they looked

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Speaker 1: really good and they're opening against Louisiana Tech, who is

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Speaker 1: a really good been major. Um. But I think that

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Speaker 1: come the end of the year, Kentucky should be the

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Speaker 1: clear favorite to win the SEC. But yeah, I'll be

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Speaker 1: an interesting conference with sure. Yeah. Well, let's transition to

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Speaker 1: the National Football League. You can find Sucky every week

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Speaker 1: Thursday Action Network podcast Talking Gambling. We had a rough week,

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Speaker 1: I know I did personally as well, because I took

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Speaker 1: San Francisco and Cole McCoy beat the ship out of him.

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Speaker 1: The Panthers, I wasn't with you on that one, and

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Speaker 1: they destroyed. I mean, Sam Donald stinks. Well yeah, the

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Speaker 1: problem there's and what I came on here and talked

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Speaker 1: about is, as of Thursday last week, the assumption was

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Speaker 1: darnav was gonna be out and I don't think I could.

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Speaker 1: I would take ten points with Sam Donald playing a

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick defense and then he ends up playing. Um,

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Speaker 1: the Carlin defense plays well, but I you can't. You

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Speaker 1: cannot bet on Sam darning against Bill Belichick. He is

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Speaker 1: still seeing ghosts. But Cleveland, Uh, that that they house.

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Speaker 1: Since so we started hot, we're twelve fourteen and one

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Speaker 1: on the season. Uh. Now, speaking of Carolina, they just

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Speaker 1: signed Cameron Newton, who I'm sure won't play this week,

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Speaker 1: but uh, they're getting ten and a half points at Arizona.

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Speaker 1: I read headline that Kyler said his ankle feels a

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Speaker 1: lot better. But I do think with that win last week,

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Speaker 1: what would be the rush to push him, especially with

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Speaker 1: the way Colt played. You know, this one would be

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Speaker 1: a hard game for me just to gamble on in general,

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Speaker 1: it's a big spread, Carolina ten and a half on

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Speaker 1: the road. What are you thinking here? Yeah, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: start calling these somebody spikes the Curse of Middlecalf. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've I've in ten years in the NFL, I haven't

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Speaker 1: had two two games where I knew the starter was

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Speaker 1: gonna be out beat the close by seven points. Get

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Speaker 1: the backup and the backup roles at Cooper Rush. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it was so eerie that how similar Cooper Rush and

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Speaker 1: then Colt McCoy were. But yeah, I played. I played

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Speaker 1: the Panthers plus tend and half your bonus. We know

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Speaker 1: for sure Sam Darnald will be out, and the market

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Speaker 1: kind of moved this line up. I don't think there's

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Speaker 1: any difference between him and PG Walker. He's that terrible

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Speaker 1: and PJ Walker at least gives you an option with

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Speaker 1: his legs. But I agree, I don't think that. I

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Speaker 1: think there's a chance it's to Kyler Murray and DeAndre

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Speaker 1: Hopkins won't play again. And if that's the case, the

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Speaker 1: line will crash and I'll have to a ten and

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Speaker 1: a half, and that's all I can ask for. The

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Speaker 1: Cardinals are also really beat up Roddel Morden practice today.

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Speaker 1: He has concussion and a knee injury. Buddha Baker concussion

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Speaker 1: and an injury. Uh, they have their across the board. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and look this is it's just a semi flat spot.

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Speaker 1: You want to talk about the mirrors to the Cowboys game.

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Speaker 1: Cowboys go on the road, get a win with their

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback. That's like a team effort. Everyone is all in,

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Speaker 1: we have to all step up. They come home ten

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Speaker 1: point favorite. They lay a complete egg to the Broncos

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Speaker 1: about thirty one nothing third quarters. Same thing here, go

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Speaker 1: to San Francisco. Team effort and now you come up

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Speaker 1: with your ten point favorite against the team playing for

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Speaker 1: their season. If the Panthers win this game, assuming Dallas

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Speaker 1: beats Atlanta, there in the seventh spot in the NFC

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Speaker 1: Walker race. But you know, so number one, I think

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Speaker 1: you might have a limited limited Murray or no Murray

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Speaker 1: at all. If there's no Murray, this line is, you know,

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Speaker 1: five six points off. Even if Mary placed last year,

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Speaker 1: Carolina beat up this Arizona team out gave him four

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Speaker 1: forty two to two hundred, held Mary to a hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty three yards passing. He ran for eight. I

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Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna be running for many yards if

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Speaker 1: he does play, because he's gonna be limited mobility wise,

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Speaker 1: which just really crushes their entire offense. And this Arizona

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Speaker 1: team is running really well. I mean, they have a

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Speaker 1: lot of regressive coming from. I'll give you a couple examples.

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Speaker 1: They lead the NFL and fumbles per game, yet they

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Speaker 1: lead the NFL with the fewest amount of fumbles lost

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Speaker 1: per game. Their opponents lead the NFL in fumbles per

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Speaker 1: game and fumbles lost per game. Put it another way,

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Speaker 1: Cardinals and their opponents have both fumbled sixteen times. The

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Speaker 1: Cardinals have lost two eight percent, their opponents have lost ten.

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Speaker 1: You see this early Look the San Francisco game last week.

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Speaker 1: Three fumbles in the first quarter. Arizona recovers them all.

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Speaker 1: I mean, all of a sudden, that games stuff. All

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Speaker 1: the same thing happened in the Cleveland game. How about

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Speaker 1: fourth downs, Arizona is eight for nine, leads the NFL

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Speaker 1: opponents six of twenty. I mean, these are a game

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Speaker 1: swinging plays on four downs. Cardinals third down date best

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Speaker 1: in the NFL at Yet if you look at their

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Speaker 1: early down success rate, they're you know, their own early

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Speaker 1: downs there twenty three in the NFL against the run,

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Speaker 1: twenty seven against the pass. There in third and fourth down,

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Speaker 1: with your high variance downs, they're getting very fortunate. So

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Speaker 1: I think across the board there's a lot of regression

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Speaker 1: coming for this Cardinals team, who's getting in these favorable

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Speaker 1: game states early in games because of these fumbles, a

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Speaker 1: couple of question penalties. They're just having things go their way.

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Speaker 1: So I think that their numbers are a bit inflated

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Speaker 1: and their run defense is terrible. That's the thing that

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Speaker 1: to keep them on here. McCaffery didn't even play in

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Speaker 1: that game last year. I think that that's what Matt

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Speaker 1: rule is gonna lean on here. I think this is

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Speaker 1: a bit too many points for desperate Caroline team against

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Speaker 1: a banged up Arizona team that I think has some

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Speaker 1: regression coming. So I took the ten and a half

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Speaker 1: year the fumbles last week with the Niners game. The

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Speaker 1: first one, George Kittle has a sweet play over the

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Speaker 1: middle that goes through three guys, the ball comes out.

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Speaker 1: The second fumble is deep in their own you know,

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Speaker 1: red area. You makes this incredible catch, keep out he goes,

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Speaker 1: and then he hits it out of his hand. I

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Speaker 1: mean it was crazy. And the third one, Arizona is

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Speaker 1: deep in San Francisco's territory and they and it pops

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Speaker 1: out somehow. I mean, so these are the things. And

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Speaker 1: look those are fourteen potential fourteen point swings three times

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Speaker 1: um that and then all of a sudden, you know,

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Speaker 1: the game is out of reach. And then teams can't

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Speaker 1: run on Arizona because the game and that's Arizona thrives

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Speaker 1: on their pass rush when you're down fourteen points in

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Speaker 1: the second half, and then you have to abandon the run.

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Speaker 1: Teams like San Francisco Cleveland, who can really? I mean this,

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Speaker 1: This Arizona run defense is a bottom ten, maybe bottom

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Speaker 1: five unit, especially without what so I think that the

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Speaker 1: Panthers can keep this close. Don't fumble, and hey, maybe

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals will lose a couple of these bumbles. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the Panthers. I wouldn't shock me

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Speaker 1: if they pulled off this upset. Okay, the Saints at Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: you know it, it's weird. Obviously, the Saints get that

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Speaker 1: as kicking. They beat the Bucks and then they come

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Speaker 1: back and they lose to the Falcons at home. Tennessee

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Speaker 1: is just beating every good team every single week pretty easily.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of nuts. I don't even I guess I

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Speaker 1: would take the Saints here, just kind of shorting Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: They're just bound. Even if they have a great season

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Speaker 1: twelve and five, they're gonna lose some games. Right, Well,

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Speaker 1: this feels a little bit like a spot. Maybe they

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Speaker 1: just run out of run out of juice. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: I took the Saints plus three here. Um, I have

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Speaker 1: the Saints rated higher than the Titans. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Titans are seven and two, and you have to give

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Speaker 1: them credit for some of these wings. Now, they're running

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Speaker 1: really well in the turnover department over this stretch, but

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Speaker 1: you know, are they going to run out of There's

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Speaker 1: has to be a potential for fatigue here, right, You

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Speaker 1: beat the Bills the Chiefs, then you go on the

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Speaker 1: road in overtime and you end your Vision Rivals hopes

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Speaker 1: of winning the division. Then you go out west, everyone

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Speaker 1: says you have no chance in prime time, and you

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Speaker 1: beat the Rabs. Now you come back home and play

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Speaker 1: the Saints. I mean that is a brutal stretch. So look,

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Speaker 1: the Titans offense did nothing last week. Can they can

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Speaker 1: they can they win games without Derrick Henry with their

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Speaker 1: quarterback on. Yeah? Not against great defenses, and the Stints

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Speaker 1: arguably have the best defense in the NFL now that

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Speaker 1: they're healthy. You can't run against them, and Tennessee can't run.

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Speaker 1: But A d had ten carries for twenty yards, so

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Speaker 1: that really takes away their play action game. The Saints

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Speaker 1: won't have to commit anyone to the box, and you

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Speaker 1: know they have Lattimore who can take away a J. Brown.

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Speaker 1: And this Titans team, you want to look at like

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Speaker 1: projected wins, being like the Bills don't get a yard

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Speaker 1: the Cults in that game with some of the turner

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Speaker 1: losing over time. Um, you know that there's they're they're

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Speaker 1: really running well and some of these close games. Projected ins,

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Speaker 1: which looks at the postgame win probability, there's seven and two,

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Speaker 1: but they're projected wins are four and a half, that's

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Speaker 1: eighteenth in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are five point six,

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Speaker 1: that's six NFL. The Titans, despite being seven and two,

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Speaker 1: they're being out gamed on the air. They're averaging five

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Speaker 1: point six yards per play, which is twenty second in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. They're allowing five point eight that's nineteenth in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. So you know that the Titans where I

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Speaker 1: do have to get them credit on their defensive their

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Speaker 1: defensive line that they have been getting pressure. Jeffrey Simmons

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Speaker 1: has been a stud. You know, you have a couple

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Speaker 1: of guys off of the edge and the Landry that

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Speaker 1: are getting pressure. That takes some of the pressure off

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Speaker 1: of their defensive backs, which are bad. But you know,

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Speaker 1: States having a lead offensive line, so I think they

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Speaker 1: can neutralize that here. They can get the run game going,

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Speaker 1: even if Commar is a little banged up. I think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see a lot of Taysom Hill packages. I'm

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Speaker 1: not a fan of them, but I think they can

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Speaker 1: work here because the Titans rundy is one of the

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Speaker 1: worst in the NFL. Big special team's edge for New Orleans,

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Speaker 1: I think a coach edge as well, and this is

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Speaker 1: just a great spot for New Orleans off of that

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Speaker 1: bad loss which look two weeks ago, they beat the

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Speaker 1: Bucks really bad flat spot last week. Sean Payton is

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Speaker 1: an underdog and two in his career, covering by four

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Speaker 1: points per game, second most profitable to forty coaches last

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Speaker 1: twenty years only by Tomlin. Even better Peyton off of

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Speaker 1: a loss forty nine and twenty six against the spread.

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Speaker 1: He's twenty six and ten against the spread on the

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Speaker 1: road off of a loss. So, uh, you know, this

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Speaker 1: is a great spot to back Peyton, a great spot

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Speaker 1: to sell high on the Titans who have just been

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Speaker 1: running well and look, no Henry. The offensive line is

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Speaker 1: banged up on the left side, and the Saints defense

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Speaker 1: is legit. I think they grind out a win here. Hi,

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Speaker 1: it's the herd for Fandel. Monday night football matchup Rams Niners,

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Speaker 1: Rams or minus four. I probably take the Niners plus four.

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Speaker 1: It's a divisional matchup. It's perhaps Garoppolo's last start. He's

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Speaker 1: fighting for his job. In this matchup, Kyle Shanahan has

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Speaker 1: had Sean mcveigh's number. I do think the Rams were embarrassed.

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Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if the Rams won and covered.

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Speaker 1: But listen, same game Parlay's there's a lot of different

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Speaker 1: things you can go here. I would probably take the

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Speaker 1: forty Niners and the under because I don't think the

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Speaker 1: forty Niners canna win to shoot out, and I think

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Speaker 1: the forty Niners know they can't want to shoot out.

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Speaker 1: and Virginia. Called on nine with it Indiana, sevent for

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Speaker 1: confidential health. In Michigan, Tennessee, redline is one. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: hundred next step or text next step to five two

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Speaker 1: in Arizona. Okay, uh, I would not have circled this game,

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Speaker 1: but you I know you're fired up on it. But

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Speaker 1: the Steelers coming off, you know, it was impressive win

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Speaker 1: and they let them back. But I I thought they

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Speaker 1: outplayed Chicago pretty easily, but it wasn't for the special

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Speaker 1: teams touchdown. And then the Lions, who you know, are

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Speaker 1: in complete shambles. They haven't won a game. They played

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Speaker 1: some close games early, but they're coming off a by

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Speaker 1: the week. I guess two weeks ago. The Eagles beat

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Speaker 1: the living ship out of him. It's the biggest win

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Speaker 1: for in Eagles history on the road. Absolutely house him

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Speaker 1: and there It's not like Jalen Hursts through four touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: He threw for like a hundred yards in that game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they they embarrassed them. But it feels like

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Speaker 1: you kind of like Detroit in this spot. Let let

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Speaker 1: me hear yeah. I mean it's three for the money

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Speaker 1: and those those two plays that I gave up are

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Speaker 1: my biggest bets of the weekend. A lot of teasers,

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Speaker 1: I like the the Browns under actual network gap you

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Speaker 1: could follow all my picks, but this is the only

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Speaker 1: other straight upside that I did play, So I do

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Speaker 1: have money on it, but it's a smaller play. I

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Speaker 1: just think that it's too many points. There's a little

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Speaker 1: value that I'm showing on the lines for I don't

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Speaker 1: one it's a good spot. You have the lines off

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Speaker 1: of a bye just desperate for a win, and the

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Speaker 1: you know, the Steelers are coming off a Monday night

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Speaker 1: game and a hard fought win, the win right down

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Speaker 1: to the wire. So from a rest preparation perspective, lines

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Speaker 1: are still winless. You know they're gonna come out and

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Speaker 1: throw the kitchen sink here trying to get a win.

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Speaker 1: So you could see some some trick play, some special

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Speaker 1: teams plays. You saw that when they went to the Rams,

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Speaker 1: and this Steeler's offense, I just don't know if they can.

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Speaker 1: They should be laying over a touchdown anyone. They haven't

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Speaker 1: beat it by anyone by a touchdown this year. Ben

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Speaker 1: Roethlisberger is playing very poorly anytime he's under pressure. He

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Speaker 1: has eleven percent turnover worthy throw rate under pressure, and

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Speaker 1: that's the next The next highest is justin fields at

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Speaker 1: like seven. So and there's been a lot of drop picks.

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Speaker 1: He's not playing well, the offensive line is not playing well,

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Speaker 1: and they cannot throw it deep. I mean, you look

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Speaker 1: at his average depth of target, it's seven yards. We

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Speaker 1: get rid of the ball within like a second, you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's that's a good thing for Detroit here.

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Speaker 1: That's one of the things I'm counting because the lines

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Speaker 1: have the worst deep passing defense in the NFL. Their

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Speaker 1: corners are bad, they have the worst free safety in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, and they cannot defend the deep past or

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Speaker 1: thirty second the NFL defended he passed. They're the only

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Speaker 1: team with an average depth of target allowed of over

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Speaker 1: ten yards. Steelers can't do that, can't take advantage of

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Speaker 1: this really bad secondary. And there's no Claypool now their

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Speaker 1: deep threat. So at least the lines are gonna make

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Speaker 1: them drive it down the field with short passes, you

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Speaker 1: hope to get a couple stops. Look, it's you're catching

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Speaker 1: nine points with a total that's extremely low. The lines

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Speaker 1: have showed that they'll fight till the end, right, they'll

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Speaker 1: on sidekick it. They'll try to score to the last

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Speaker 1: possible second. So if you're down fourteen. You can get

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Speaker 1: a back door here. It's not a bet that I love,

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Speaker 1: but it's a decent spot. Winless teams by the way

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Speaker 1: after Week six against the spread historically, like who wants

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Speaker 1: to back the Lions here? So you know, I think

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Speaker 1: that the Steelers, it's it's not a great spot. Their

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Speaker 1: offense isn't great, and I'm not excited to back the

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Speaker 1: lines here, but I do show a small bit of

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Speaker 1: value and did play them, so that that gets number

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Speaker 1: three here. But I would I love the Saints and

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Speaker 1: the Panthers significantly more. Okay, let's go. This is my

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Speaker 1: favorite matchup of the week at New England. Belichick he's

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Speaker 1: getting his groove. His defense has been great. They have

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Speaker 1: a you know, a defined offense because they can really

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Speaker 1: run the ball and they don't ask Mack to do

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Speaker 1: that much Cleveland who At the time of recording this,

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Speaker 1: we don't know the status of Chubb, you know, because

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Speaker 1: he's vaccinated. He can test back in, but clearly when

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Speaker 1: he's on the field and when he's off the field

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Speaker 1: is a big difference for them. And if there is

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Speaker 1: a chance that he's out, I mean I would I

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Speaker 1: would lay the mortgage on New England even if he

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Speaker 1: plays you know, Baker's Baker's banged up. He's clearly a

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Speaker 1: shell of himself for most of the season. While he

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Speaker 1: did play well last week, now that he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: the O'Dell, you know, kind of drama around. But I

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Speaker 1: I like New England a lot in this spot. Might

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Speaker 1: just want to have at home. To me, this is

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Speaker 1: just a Belichick special, how about you. Yeah, I don't

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Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on the side with Chubb's uncertainty,

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Speaker 1: but I really do like this Under under forty some

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Speaker 1: under forty five and a half, mac Jones has been

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Speaker 1: okay for rookie, but under fresh or as you'd expect

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Speaker 1: with the rookie, he's been very poor. We look at

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Speaker 1: last week, I mean against Carolina, he did nothing at all. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he takes a lot. He takes a lot of hits

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Speaker 1: in the passing game for sure. I mean he's got peppered. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Now you're playing a Brown's team that's third and adjusted

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Speaker 1: Zaccharate top five and pressure rate there, he's this is

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Speaker 1: one of the I think that the Browns is one

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Speaker 1: of the most underrated defenses in the league. Now that

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Speaker 1: they're healthy, their secondary is healthy, some of their numbers

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Speaker 1: are a little bit deflated because of you know, earlier

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Speaker 1: year they were dealing with a lot of injuries. But

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Speaker 1: they'll get pressure here and they can contain this New

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Speaker 1: England offense. On the other side, I think that New

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Speaker 1: England defense can do the same to Cleveland. And then

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Speaker 1: when I look at this game, it's two teams that

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Speaker 1: play slow. They're both in the bottom ten of adjusted

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Speaker 1: pace in neutral situations. These are two teams that are

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Speaker 1: in the top ten in rush rate. So you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a lot of runs. I think a lot of punts.

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Speaker 1: And most importantly, this clock is going to be blee

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Speaker 1: eating teams that like to play slower and run the

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Speaker 1: ball throughout the game. So I think this is a

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Speaker 1: really good underspot um. And uh, that's the way that

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Speaker 1: I'm playing. I don't I don't think the Browns defense

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Speaker 1: is getting enough love, and I don't think that mac

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Speaker 1: Jones is going to do much in The Browns run

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Speaker 1: defense has been really strong. Um, so I think this

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Speaker 1: is more of a grinder. I don't hate your angle there,

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Speaker 1: but I prefer the under got you well, stucky, Let's

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Speaker 1: let's get hot again. Let's make some money. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: throw a little cash on the saint. You've convinced me

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Speaker 1: I like him in that spot as well. And uh

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Speaker 1: and have a good weekend. Hopefully you're Kentucky Wildcats can

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Speaker 1: get can get a win coming up. Thanks, we enjoy

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Speaker 1: your weekend and got up audios the volume