Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day
Speaker 1: Break for Monday May fifteenth.
Speaker 2: Coming up today, Debt ceiling talks prepared to resume tomorrow,
Speaker 2: Border crossings drop, bucking expectations of a surge, Turkeys poised
Speaker 2: for a runoff, PHOTUS President Erdawan tries to stay in power.
Speaker 1: And Newmont Mining makes a nineteen billion dollar acquisition.
Speaker 3: New York area hotels will be used to house asylum
Speaker 3: seekers plus victims. On the anniversary of the Dudley Buffalo
Speaker 3: supermarket shooting, where we remembered, I'm Michael Barr.
Speaker 4: More ahead, I'm Tom stan Sharan's fourth.
Speaker 5: The Yankees lost eighty seven of the Rays the Mets
Speaker 5: with two in Washington. The Celtics won Game seven from
Speaker 5: the sixers.
Speaker 6: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business
Speaker 6: news you need to start your day in just one
Speaker 6: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg
Speaker 6: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: Karon.
Speaker 2: We start this week with possible signs of progress on
Speaker 2: the debt ceiling. It appears that talks between President Biden
Speaker 2: and congressional leaders will resume tomorrow.
Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story.
Speaker 8: The buzz over the weekend from all sides is that
Speaker 8: progress is being made, and during a reporter spray, President
Speaker 8: Joe Biden was asked, will it.
Speaker 1: Be on Tuesday?
Speaker 9: It's been reported it'll be tuesday.
Speaker 8: Thinks so, and he says he feels good about it.
Speaker 10: I remy not be mistake because I'm a conngeneral optimist,
Speaker 10: but I really think there's a desire on their part
Speaker 10: as well as ours to basagreement.
Speaker 3: I think we'll be able to.
Speaker 8: Do Meanwhile, Congress from Michael McCall, caution's adversaries are watching.
Speaker 9: Particularly China, to see us default.
Speaker 1: You know, our full faith and credit.
Speaker 8: All of course subject to change. In San Francisco, I'm
Speaker 8: at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 1: All right, Ed, thanks Willas talks appear to resume, the
Speaker 1: White House is repeating calls for Congress to lift the
Speaker 1: dead limit. The latest such comments come from National Economic
Speaker 1: Council Director Lyle Brainerd.
Speaker 11: The staff is very engaged. I would characterize the engagement
Speaker 11: as serious as constructive. When I talk to CEOs to
Speaker 11: business leaders around the country, they tell me things are
Speaker 11: actually going very well, but their biggest concern is that
Speaker 11: Congress might fail to prevent default and that that would
Speaker 11: be catastrophic.
Speaker 1: Hile Brainerd made the comments on Face the Nation from
Speaker 1: CBA schedule the program every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio Care
Speaker 1: and the.
Speaker 2: Risk of default appears greater than it's ever been and
Speaker 2: that has Wall Street looking for the best place to
Speaker 2: put money to hedge that risk. We have a new
Speaker 2: survey out and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with the details.
Speaker 4: John and Nathan the game of Chicken over the debt ceiling,
Speaker 4: putting the glitter on gold. More than half of finance
Speaker 4: professionals say the precious metal is what they would buy
Speaker 4: if the US government fails to honor its obligations, and
Speaker 4: that doesn't seem to be much of an alternative. In
Speaker 4: a distant second to gold US treasuries. That's the pick
Speaker 4: for about fourteen percent of investment for fas Now that's
Speaker 4: a bit ironic since that represents the debt on which
Speaker 4: the country would be defaulting. Bitcoin came in third, even
Speaker 4: ahead of the US dollar the Japanese Yen and the
Speaker 4: Swiss franc in New York on John Tucker Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 1: All right, John, thanks, Now, let's turn to the situation
Speaker 1: at the southern border. The surgeon migrants that had been
Speaker 1: expected after the end of pandemic era restrictions has apparently
Speaker 1: failed to materialize. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandra Mayorcis says there's
Speaker 1: been a fifty percent drop in border encounter since Title
Speaker 1: forty two has lifted last week.
Speaker 12: We have seen I think approximately sixty three hundred on
Speaker 12: Friday and about forty two hundred yesterday by the United
Speaker 12: States Border Patrol, and we saw over ten thousand before
Speaker 12: the end of Title forty two earlier last week.
Speaker 1: Homeland Security Secretary Alejandra Mayorkis spoke to CNN yesterday. He
Speaker 1: says it's still too soon to know if the surgeon
Speaker 1: crossings has peaked.
Speaker 2: Another major political story this morning, Karen brings us to
Speaker 2: the elections in Turkey. Preliminary results show President Retchip type
Speaker 2: Ernawan with a lead of more than two million votes,
Speaker 2: but that may not be enough to avoid a second
Speaker 2: round of voting. We get more from Bloomberg's use of
Speaker 2: Kamali al Dean in his standball.
Speaker 9: Ninety nine percent of the vote down and President ch
Speaker 9: of pipe Erhon maintains that there's still a chance that
Speaker 9: he could win it in round one. In Canaklitch the
Speaker 9: rolo about to sort of forty five percent in round one,
Speaker 9: says he could win round two as it comes to it.
Speaker 9: But reality is also coming together in terms of the
Speaker 9: stronger position that the incumb but president finds himself in
Speaker 9: in round two with the parliamentary numbers speaking in his
Speaker 9: favor and the third contender for the vote in round
Speaker 9: one and Olgan that's about too manion votes and the
Speaker 9: people have spoken to suggest that a good number of
Speaker 9: those people are more likely to vote for President Richard
Speaker 9: pypeer On when it comes down to it.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's use of Kamali al Dean says risk assets in
Speaker 2: Turkey fell on the results Turkish stock slump sick zero
Speaker 2: point four percent before triggering halt and trading.
Speaker 1: Well in London today, Nathan, UK Prime Minister Rishi Suna
Speaker 1: Guess meeting with Ukraine President Vladimir Zelenski, and we get
Speaker 1: more from Bloomberg. So you and pots in London, you
Speaker 1: and good morning.
Speaker 13: Good morning counter Nathan, Paris, Rome, Berlin and now London.
Speaker 13: Vladimir Zlenski's tour of Europe continues today with a surprise
Speaker 13: visit to the UK by Minisousisinak is set to promise
Speaker 13: more weapons for Kiev, including hundreds of attack drones and
Speaker 13: air defense missiles. Zelenski's whistletop mission comes as Ukrainian forces
Speaker 13: prepare for a counter offenses to take back territory occupied
Speaker 13: by Russia. In London, I'm you and pot'spin Bog daybreak,
Speaker 13: new and thanks.
Speaker 7: Got a couple of deals to begin the week.
Speaker 2: First, Australia's New Crest Mining has agreed to a takeover
Speaker 2: deal with Neumont. Bloomberg's Doug Krisner has the story.
Speaker 14: Newmont first approached its Australian rival back in February with
Speaker 14: a non binding bid worth seventeen billion dollars, but it
Speaker 14: was rejected by the board at Newcrest. Then in April,
Speaker 14: Newmont sweetened the offer by more more than two billion
Speaker 14: dollars and described it as the best and final offer. Well,
Speaker 14: now Newcrest has accepted terms worth roughly nineteen point two
Speaker 14: billion dollars. This deal would create the world's largest gold producer,
Speaker 14: with assets in North and South America, Africa, Australia, and
Speaker 14: Papua New Guinea. Newmont will also expand its exposure to copper,
Speaker 14: a key metal in the clean energy transition in New York.
Speaker 14: I'm Doug Christner, Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 7: All right, Dyke, thanks.
Speaker 1: If we have a nearly nineteen billion dollar oil pipeline deal.
Speaker 1: One Oak has agreed to buy Magellan Midstream Partners. A
Speaker 1: deal would create one of the largest oil and natural
Speaker 1: gas pipeline operators in the US.
Speaker 2: Time now to take a look at some of the
Speaker 2: other stories making news in New York and around the
Speaker 2: world with Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 3: Good morning, Nathan. New York City has accepted tens of
Speaker 3: thousands of migrants, even though officials say the system is strussed.
Speaker 3: Mayor Eric Adams is now converting the Roosevelt Hotel into
Speaker 3: an emergency migrants shelter. The historic hotel close during the
Speaker 3: pandemic and will reopen and transform into an arrival center
Speaker 3: this week, opening nearly one thousand rooms for asylum seekers.
Speaker 3: They will have access to social and medical services. Sunday
Speaker 3: marked one year since the deadly shooting and the supermarket
Speaker 3: in Buffalo, New York, people paused to remember the racially
Speaker 3: motivated massacre at tops supermarket. Church bells chimed across the
Speaker 3: city to honor the ten people killed and three others wounded.
Speaker 3: New York Governor Kathy hokel racism.
Speaker 15: Did not win on to day that the people of
Speaker 15: Buffalo said that love will come out and be the
Speaker 15: winner on this day. I am proud of you, my
Speaker 15: fellow Buffalo, as I'm so proud.
Speaker 3: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also spoke at the memorial,
Speaker 3: saying families of the victims helped in funding for mental
Speaker 3: health care.
Speaker 12: We put money into mental health services which were so needed,
Speaker 12: all because of the work the families did.
Speaker 7: Now we have a lot more to do.
Speaker 3: This fight isn't over. The eighteen year old gunman was
Speaker 3: sentenced to life in prison without parole. Florida Governor Round
Speaker 3: Descantis appears closer to announcing his run for the White House,
Speaker 3: stumping in Iowa over the weekend. The most recent ABC
Speaker 3: News Washington Post poll of Republicans and GOP leaning independence
Speaker 3: showed a fifty one percent people of preferring Trump to
Speaker 3: be the Republican nominee. That's more than double the lead
Speaker 3: over DeSantis, his nearest opponent. Over the weekend, more than
Speaker 3: fifty twisters tour across the Midwest, from Texas to Nebraska
Speaker 3: to Illinois, one of them deadly striking a town in
Speaker 3: South Texas, killing one man and injuring about a dozen others.
Speaker 3: This man was able to survive the storm.
Speaker 12: Oh Wendell came in and it picked me up up
Speaker 12: ben and threw me into the walls.
Speaker 3: The EF one tornado had wins of up to one
Speaker 3: hundred five miles an hour. China has sentenced a seventy
Speaker 3: eight year old United States citizen to life in prison
Speaker 3: on spying charges. John Hin Wang Lung, who holds permanent
Speaker 3: residency in Hong Kong, had been detained on April fifteenth,
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one, by the counterintelligence Agency. Global News twenty
Speaker 3: four hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven
Speaker 3: hundred journalists and analysts in over one hundred and twenty countries.
Speaker 3: I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Nathor.
Speaker 7: Thank you, Michael.
Speaker 2: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you
Speaker 2: by Tri State AUTI.
Speaker 7: For that we bring in John Stanshallen all.
Speaker 3: Right, Nathan.
Speaker 5: The Yankees and the Rais just comfitted seven games in
Speaker 5: ten days. Six of the seven were decided by one run.
Speaker 5: Both teams had comebacks from six to nothing deficits. The
Speaker 5: Yanks did that on Saturday Yesterday, they trailed three to nothing,
Speaker 5: then led four to three four four fifth inning bases
Speaker 5: loaded too at the first battle that Albert of.
Speaker 7: Ray who fazed was the Raise Taylor Wall.
Speaker 15: One two pitch, swinging a high drive towards right center, heading.
Speaker 3: Back judge to the wall.
Speaker 15: Grand slam. For the second consecutive day, the Rays have
Speaker 15: hit a grand slam, and they've got an eight four
Speaker 15: lead in the Bronx EAE.
Speaker 5: The call Yanks closed that gap, but a week after
Speaker 5: they trying to win the series, but lost eight to seven.
Speaker 5: Another Sunday, going for a series win, another eight to
Speaker 5: seven defeed, Mets had lost five straight series. They won't
Speaker 5: lose the one in Washington that ends tonight. After losing
Speaker 5: to the Nats three to two in the completion of
Speaker 5: the suspended game, they won eight to two, scoring all
Speaker 5: eight in the fifty. Max Sures would beat his old team,
Speaker 5: got his first winning over a month, Celtics improved to
Speaker 5: twenty seven and nine in their history. In Game seven,
Speaker 5: blew out Philadelphia one twelve to eighty eight. Jason Tate
Speaker 5: imported in fifty one points, most ever in a Game seven,
Speaker 5: and so the East Finals Celtics and the Miami Heat.
Speaker 5: For the second straight year, the third time in the
Speaker 5: last four years, the Vegas Golden Knights are into the
Speaker 5: Stanley Cup West Final of five to two Game six
Speaker 5: win at Edmonton, Jonathan Marcisso had a natural hat trick
Speaker 5: three goals, all in the second period. The Aussee Jason
Speaker 5: Day shot sixty two on the Byron Nelson Golf in Dallas'
Speaker 5: first PGA wins in twenty eighteen. And now it's onto
Speaker 5: the PGA Championship. That tee's off Thursday in Rochester. John
Speaker 5: Stashaweer Bloomberg Sports.
Speaker 10: Live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 10: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SIRIUSXAM, the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 10: and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
Speaker 2: We are seeing a bit of optimism at the start
Speaker 2: of this new training week with debt talks continuing in
Speaker 2: Washington and about of M and A news. Let's bring
Speaker 2: in Lauri Calvacina for an outlook on the new week,
Speaker 2: head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 7: Laurie, it's great to speak with you.
Speaker 2: I know you've been talking for really months now about
Speaker 2: the risks to markets from a prolonged debt ceiling standoff.
Speaker 2: It seems like that's where we are right now. So
Speaker 2: do you share this market optimism that we are sort
Speaker 2: of seeing this morning?
Speaker 16: So thanks for having me as always, And look, I
Speaker 16: think the debt ceiling is one of these issues that
Speaker 16: you know, I would say long only investors I talked
Speaker 16: to that hasn't been the top thing they ask about
Speaker 16: over the last few months, but it's been one of
Speaker 16: the things they won't let me get out of a
Speaker 16: meeting before we talk about. So I just think that
Speaker 16: they're you know, I do think it's on people's minds
Speaker 16: for quite some time. I think we have only though recently,
Speaker 16: really started to see the hedge fund community start to
Speaker 16: pay attention.
Speaker 2: And what, as I tell you, when we have the
Speaker 2: hedge funds starting to pay attention to this, what could
Speaker 2: that mean? For the broader market as we get closer
Speaker 2: to that so called X state.
Speaker 16: So look, I think that the issue that I noticed
Speaker 16: I was in London a few weeks ago and we
Speaker 16: were talking to a lot of sort of global macro
Speaker 16: type hedge funds, and they were quite negative on the
Speaker 16: US already because they think the US is expensive, they
Speaker 16: don't believe in the tech trade that was underway at
Speaker 16: the time and it's still underway today. And they also
Speaker 16: just think that the US is economically disadvantaged relative to
Speaker 16: Europe at this point in time. And so that's where
Speaker 16: the debt ceiling comes in as sort of a potential
Speaker 16: negative catalyst to push a market they don't already like
Speaker 16: down and also to throw some extra burden on the
Speaker 16: US economy. You know, my point is, I do think
Speaker 16: that the debt ceiling is a risk for markets. I'm
Speaker 16: not quite as vverish a lot of those London investors
Speaker 16: I spill with, but I do think it does have
Speaker 16: the potential to add to some volatility in the market
Speaker 16: this summer. The thing we've been talking about since February
Speaker 16: is there are kind of two kind of dramas you
Speaker 16: can get associated with in the debt ceiling, A total
Speaker 16: drama year where there's a lot of other stuff going on,
Speaker 16: my twenty eleven, twenty eighteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, those
Speaker 16: will get you about a ten to nineteen percent draw
Speaker 16: down in the equity market. A non drama filled year
Speaker 16: where this is kind of the only scandal going on,
Speaker 16: that will get you about a five to six percent
Speaker 16: hit to markets. And so our assumption has been we'd
Speaker 16: at least see a five to six percent out of
Speaker 16: volatility from this. But we do think the fact that
Speaker 16: we have this banking crisis, keeping confidence fragile, in recession
Speaker 16: fears really mounting, similar to twenty fifteen twenty sixteen, that
Speaker 16: could put something a little bit more nefarious like a
Speaker 16: ten percent draw down on the table. As always though, Nathan,
Speaker 16: there are a lot of layers of this. This is
Speaker 16: an onion. The more we peel it, the more complicated
Speaker 16: things get. So you know, I do think that from
Speaker 16: a sector perspective, we put out a piece this morning
Speaker 16: that so things might be a little bit more complic
Speaker 16: and we initially assumed.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to pick up on your point about
Speaker 2: the uncertainty that from the hedge funds, you're hearing from
Speaker 2: about the growth trade. That has been something that's really
Speaker 2: paid off in recent weeks as we get through this
Speaker 2: debt ceiling standoff. What's your view on whether the growth
Speaker 2: trade is still something worth looking at.
Speaker 16: Well, you know, we had been thinking a few weeks
Speaker 16: ago that the growth trade was due for a breather
Speaker 16: and that the market was due for a breather, and
Speaker 16: this was just really you know, based on the idea
Speaker 16: that kind of this broader text cimt trade is a
Speaker 16: huge component of the broader market from a marketcap perspective.
Speaker 16: And then if you look at the tech trade and stuff,
Speaker 16: we've had a whole bunch of catalysts. So first off,
Speaker 16: we pre traded the set pause and interest rates coming down.
Speaker 16: Then we had the banking crisis that push people out
Speaker 16: of value and into growth again. People have been talking
Speaker 16: about a sluggish economic recovery down the road that's good
Speaker 16: for growth stocks. And then we have this monster earning
Speaker 16: season for tech companies which really gave us some positive catalysts.
Speaker 16: So we've said, look, we've had a lot of positive
Speaker 16: cat for this trade. Maybe you know, it's time for
Speaker 16: the market to take a breather on these debt ceiling fears,
Speaker 16: and you know, what are the other catalysts for tech coming?
Speaker 16: You know what is interesting is I did do an
Speaker 16: analysis last week looking at sector performance and past debt
Speaker 16: ceiling drawshounds, And the funny thing was, Nathan, it's the
Speaker 16: value sectors in the market that tend to get hit hardest.
Speaker 16: And so some of the more recent weakness we've seen
Speaker 16: on financials, even when we had thought some of the
Speaker 16: regional banking fears had died down. You know, we just
Speaker 16: sort of laughed when we saw this because the debt
Speaker 16: ceiling turns out it's just another thing that's much worse
Speaker 16: for values than growth. So maybe we've picked up on
Speaker 16: something else that could buy the growth and tech trades
Speaker 16: for just a little bit longer.
Speaker 2: Only about thirty seconds left here, Laurie. But another potential
Speaker 2: catalyst is coming up tomorrow in the retail sales figures.
Speaker 2: What's your expectation of whether that could add further to
Speaker 2: the volatility.
Speaker 16: So I think, you know, we're kind of living day
Speaker 16: to day on these economic data planes. I think what
Speaker 16: was interesting in this last reporting season was that we
Speaker 16: were seeing evidence of both consumer resiliency. If you looked
Speaker 16: at the more services driven companies and the more good
Speaker 16: driven companies are continuing to talk about channel shifting and
Speaker 16: more negative impacts that they're seeing. So that's the general
Speaker 16: thing that we think we've been continuing to see in consumer.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 16: I do think investors, on the one hand, they're ready
Speaker 16: to get a recession over if we're going to have it.
Speaker 16: On the other hand, they do also want to see
Speaker 16: some evidence that that consumer resiliency still exists. So I
Speaker 16: think we'll look for those kinds of details tomorrow.
Speaker 17: This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on
Speaker 17: the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
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Speaker 7: I'm Nathan Hager and.
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