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Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break for Monday May fifteenth.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, Debt ceiling talks prepared to resume tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: Border crossings drop, bucking expectations of a surge, Turkeys poised

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Speaker 2: for a runoff, PHOTUS President Erdawan tries to stay in power.

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Speaker 1: And Newmont Mining makes a nineteen billion dollar acquisition.

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Speaker 3: New York area hotels will be used to house asylum

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Speaker 3: seekers plus victims. On the anniversary of the Dudley Buffalo

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Speaker 3: supermarket shooting, where we remembered, I'm Michael Barr.

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Speaker 4: More ahead, I'm Tom stan Sharan's fourth.

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Speaker 5: The Yankees lost eighty seven of the Rays the Mets

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Speaker 5: with two in Washington. The Celtics won Game seven from

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Speaker 5: the sixers.

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Speaker 6: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

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Speaker 6: news you need to start your day in just one

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Speaker 6: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: Karon.

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Speaker 2: We start this week with possible signs of progress on

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Speaker 2: the debt ceiling. It appears that talks between President Biden

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Speaker 2: and congressional leaders will resume tomorrow.

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story.

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Speaker 8: The buzz over the weekend from all sides is that

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Speaker 8: progress is being made, and during a reporter spray, President

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Speaker 8: Joe Biden was asked, will it.

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Speaker 1: Be on Tuesday?

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Speaker 9: It's been reported it'll be tuesday.

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Speaker 8: Thinks so, and he says he feels good about it.

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Speaker 10: I remy not be mistake because I'm a conngeneral optimist,

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Speaker 10: but I really think there's a desire on their part

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Speaker 10: as well as ours to basagreement.

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Speaker 3: I think we'll be able to.

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Speaker 8: Do Meanwhile, Congress from Michael McCall, caution's adversaries are watching.

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Speaker 9: Particularly China, to see us default.

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Speaker 1: You know, our full faith and credit.

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Speaker 8: All of course subject to change. In San Francisco, I'm

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Speaker 8: at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: All right, Ed, thanks Willas talks appear to resume, the

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Speaker 1: White House is repeating calls for Congress to lift the

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Speaker 1: dead limit. The latest such comments come from National Economic

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Speaker 1: Council Director Lyle Brainerd.

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Speaker 11: The staff is very engaged. I would characterize the engagement

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Speaker 11: as serious as constructive. When I talk to CEOs to

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Speaker 11: business leaders around the country, they tell me things are

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Speaker 11: actually going very well, but their biggest concern is that

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Speaker 11: Congress might fail to prevent default and that that would

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Speaker 11: be catastrophic.

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Speaker 1: Hile Brainerd made the comments on Face the Nation from

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Speaker 1: CBA schedule the program every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio Care

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Speaker 1: and the.

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Speaker 2: Risk of default appears greater than it's ever been and

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Speaker 2: that has Wall Street looking for the best place to

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Speaker 2: put money to hedge that risk. We have a new

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Speaker 2: survey out and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with the details.

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Speaker 4: John and Nathan the game of Chicken over the debt ceiling,

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Speaker 4: putting the glitter on gold. More than half of finance

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Speaker 4: professionals say the precious metal is what they would buy

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Speaker 4: if the US government fails to honor its obligations, and

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Speaker 4: that doesn't seem to be much of an alternative. In

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Speaker 4: a distant second to gold US treasuries. That's the pick

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Speaker 4: for about fourteen percent of investment for fas Now that's

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Speaker 4: a bit ironic since that represents the debt on which

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Speaker 4: the country would be defaulting. Bitcoin came in third, even

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Speaker 4: ahead of the US dollar the Japanese Yen and the

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Speaker 4: Swiss franc in New York on John Tucker Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: All right, John, thanks, Now, let's turn to the situation

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Speaker 1: at the southern border. The surgeon migrants that had been

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Speaker 1: expected after the end of pandemic era restrictions has apparently

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Speaker 1: failed to materialize. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandra Mayorcis says there's

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Speaker 1: been a fifty percent drop in border encounter since Title

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Speaker 1: forty two has lifted last week.

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Speaker 12: We have seen I think approximately sixty three hundred on

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Speaker 12: Friday and about forty two hundred yesterday by the United

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Speaker 12: States Border Patrol, and we saw over ten thousand before

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Speaker 12: the end of Title forty two earlier last week.

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Speaker 1: Homeland Security Secretary Alejandra Mayorkis spoke to CNN yesterday. He

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Speaker 1: says it's still too soon to know if the surgeon

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Speaker 1: crossings has peaked.

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Speaker 2: Another major political story this morning, Karen brings us to

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Speaker 2: the elections in Turkey. Preliminary results show President Retchip type

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Speaker 2: Ernawan with a lead of more than two million votes,

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Speaker 2: but that may not be enough to avoid a second

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Speaker 2: round of voting. We get more from Bloomberg's use of

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Speaker 2: Kamali al Dean in his standball.

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Speaker 9: Ninety nine percent of the vote down and President ch

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Speaker 9: of pipe Erhon maintains that there's still a chance that

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Speaker 9: he could win it in round one. In Canaklitch the

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Speaker 9: rolo about to sort of forty five percent in round one,

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Speaker 9: says he could win round two as it comes to it.

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Speaker 9: But reality is also coming together in terms of the

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Speaker 9: stronger position that the incumb but president finds himself in

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Speaker 9: in round two with the parliamentary numbers speaking in his

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Speaker 9: favor and the third contender for the vote in round

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Speaker 9: one and Olgan that's about too manion votes and the

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Speaker 9: people have spoken to suggest that a good number of

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Speaker 9: those people are more likely to vote for President Richard

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Speaker 9: pypeer On when it comes down to it.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's use of Kamali al Dean says risk assets in

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Speaker 2: Turkey fell on the results Turkish stock slump sick zero

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Speaker 2: point four percent before triggering halt and trading.

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Speaker 1: Well in London today, Nathan, UK Prime Minister Rishi Suna

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Speaker 1: Guess meeting with Ukraine President Vladimir Zelenski, and we get

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Speaker 1: more from Bloomberg. So you and pots in London, you

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Speaker 1: and good morning.

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Speaker 13: Good morning counter Nathan, Paris, Rome, Berlin and now London.

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Speaker 13: Vladimir Zlenski's tour of Europe continues today with a surprise

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Speaker 13: visit to the UK by Minisousisinak is set to promise

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Speaker 13: more weapons for Kiev, including hundreds of attack drones and

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Speaker 13: air defense missiles. Zelenski's whistletop mission comes as Ukrainian forces

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Speaker 13: prepare for a counter offenses to take back territory occupied

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Speaker 13: by Russia. In London, I'm you and pot'spin Bog daybreak,

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Speaker 13: new and thanks.

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Speaker 7: Got a couple of deals to begin the week.

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Speaker 2: First, Australia's New Crest Mining has agreed to a takeover

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Speaker 2: deal with Neumont. Bloomberg's Doug Krisner has the story.

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Speaker 14: Newmont first approached its Australian rival back in February with

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Speaker 14: a non binding bid worth seventeen billion dollars, but it

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Speaker 14: was rejected by the board at Newcrest. Then in April,

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Speaker 14: Newmont sweetened the offer by more more than two billion

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Speaker 14: dollars and described it as the best and final offer. Well,

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Speaker 14: now Newcrest has accepted terms worth roughly nineteen point two

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Speaker 14: billion dollars. This deal would create the world's largest gold producer,

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Speaker 14: with assets in North and South America, Africa, Australia, and

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Speaker 14: Papua New Guinea. Newmont will also expand its exposure to copper,

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Speaker 14: a key metal in the clean energy transition in New York.

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Speaker 14: I'm Doug Christner, Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 7: All right, Dyke, thanks.

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Speaker 1: If we have a nearly nineteen billion dollar oil pipeline deal.

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Speaker 1: One Oak has agreed to buy Magellan Midstream Partners. A

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Speaker 1: deal would create one of the largest oil and natural

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Speaker 1: gas pipeline operators in the US.

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Speaker 2: Time now to take a look at some of the

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Speaker 2: other stories making news in New York and around the

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Speaker 2: world with Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Nathan. New York City has accepted tens of

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Speaker 3: thousands of migrants, even though officials say the system is strussed.

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Speaker 3: Mayor Eric Adams is now converting the Roosevelt Hotel into

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Speaker 3: an emergency migrants shelter. The historic hotel close during the

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Speaker 3: pandemic and will reopen and transform into an arrival center

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Speaker 3: this week, opening nearly one thousand rooms for asylum seekers.

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Speaker 3: They will have access to social and medical services. Sunday

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Speaker 3: marked one year since the deadly shooting and the supermarket

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Speaker 3: in Buffalo, New York, people paused to remember the racially

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Speaker 3: motivated massacre at tops supermarket. Church bells chimed across the

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Speaker 3: city to honor the ten people killed and three others wounded.

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Speaker 3: New York Governor Kathy hokel racism.

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Speaker 15: Did not win on to day that the people of

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Speaker 15: Buffalo said that love will come out and be the

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Speaker 15: winner on this day. I am proud of you, my

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Speaker 15: fellow Buffalo, as I'm so proud.

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Speaker 3: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also spoke at the memorial,

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Speaker 3: saying families of the victims helped in funding for mental

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Speaker 3: health care.

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Speaker 12: We put money into mental health services which were so needed,

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Speaker 12: all because of the work the families did.

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Speaker 7: Now we have a lot more to do.

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Speaker 3: This fight isn't over. The eighteen year old gunman was

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Speaker 3: sentenced to life in prison without parole. Florida Governor Round

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Speaker 3: Descantis appears closer to announcing his run for the White House,

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Speaker 3: stumping in Iowa over the weekend. The most recent ABC

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Speaker 3: News Washington Post poll of Republicans and GOP leaning independence

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Speaker 3: showed a fifty one percent people of preferring Trump to

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Speaker 3: be the Republican nominee. That's more than double the lead

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Speaker 3: over DeSantis, his nearest opponent. Over the weekend, more than

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Speaker 3: fifty twisters tour across the Midwest, from Texas to Nebraska

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Speaker 3: to Illinois, one of them deadly striking a town in

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Speaker 3: South Texas, killing one man and injuring about a dozen others.

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Speaker 3: This man was able to survive the storm.

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Speaker 12: Oh Wendell came in and it picked me up up

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Speaker 12: ben and threw me into the walls.

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Speaker 3: The EF one tornado had wins of up to one

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Speaker 3: hundred five miles an hour. China has sentenced a seventy

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Speaker 3: eight year old United States citizen to life in prison

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Speaker 3: on spying charges. John Hin Wang Lung, who holds permanent

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Speaker 3: residency in Hong Kong, had been detained on April fifteenth,

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one, by the counterintelligence Agency. Global News twenty

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Speaker 3: four hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven

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Speaker 3: hundred journalists and analysts in over one hundred and twenty countries.

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Speaker 3: I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Nathor.

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Speaker 7: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 2: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you

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Speaker 2: by Tri State AUTI.

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Speaker 7: For that we bring in John Stanshallen all.

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Speaker 3: Right, Nathan.

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Speaker 5: The Yankees and the Rais just comfitted seven games in

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Speaker 5: ten days. Six of the seven were decided by one run.

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Speaker 5: Both teams had comebacks from six to nothing deficits. The

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Speaker 5: Yanks did that on Saturday Yesterday, they trailed three to nothing,

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Speaker 5: then led four to three four four fifth inning bases

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Speaker 5: loaded too at the first battle that Albert of.

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Speaker 7: Ray who fazed was the Raise Taylor Wall.

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Speaker 15: One two pitch, swinging a high drive towards right center, heading.

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Speaker 3: Back judge to the wall.

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Speaker 15: Grand slam. For the second consecutive day, the Rays have

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Speaker 15: hit a grand slam, and they've got an eight four

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Speaker 15: lead in the Bronx EAE.

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Speaker 5: The call Yanks closed that gap, but a week after

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Speaker 5: they trying to win the series, but lost eight to seven.

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Speaker 5: Another Sunday, going for a series win, another eight to

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Speaker 5: seven defeed, Mets had lost five straight series. They won't

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Speaker 5: lose the one in Washington that ends tonight. After losing

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Speaker 5: to the Nats three to two in the completion of

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Speaker 5: the suspended game, they won eight to two, scoring all

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Speaker 5: eight in the fifty. Max Sures would beat his old team,

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Speaker 5: got his first winning over a month, Celtics improved to

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Speaker 5: twenty seven and nine in their history. In Game seven,

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Speaker 5: blew out Philadelphia one twelve to eighty eight. Jason Tate

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Speaker 5: imported in fifty one points, most ever in a Game seven,

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Speaker 5: and so the East Finals Celtics and the Miami Heat.

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Speaker 5: For the second straight year, the third time in the

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Speaker 5: last four years, the Vegas Golden Knights are into the

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Speaker 5: Stanley Cup West Final of five to two Game six

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Speaker 5: win at Edmonton, Jonathan Marcisso had a natural hat trick

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Speaker 5: three goals, all in the second period. The Aussee Jason

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Speaker 5: Day shot sixty two on the Byron Nelson Golf in Dallas'

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Speaker 5: first PGA wins in twenty eighteen. And now it's onto

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Speaker 5: the PGA Championship. That tee's off Thursday in Rochester. John

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Speaker 5: Stashaweer Bloomberg Sports.

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Speaker 10: Live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 10: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SIRIUSXAM, the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 10: and Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 2: We are seeing a bit of optimism at the start

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Speaker 2: of this new training week with debt talks continuing in

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Speaker 2: Washington and about of M and A news. Let's bring

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Speaker 2: in Lauri Calvacina for an outlook on the new week,

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Speaker 2: head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

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Speaker 7: Laurie, it's great to speak with you.

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Speaker 2: I know you've been talking for really months now about

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Speaker 2: the risks to markets from a prolonged debt ceiling standoff.

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Speaker 2: It seems like that's where we are right now. So

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Speaker 2: do you share this market optimism that we are sort

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Speaker 2: of seeing this morning?

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Speaker 16: So thanks for having me as always, And look, I

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Speaker 16: think the debt ceiling is one of these issues that

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Speaker 16: you know, I would say long only investors I talked

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Speaker 16: to that hasn't been the top thing they ask about

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Speaker 16: over the last few months, but it's been one of

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Speaker 16: the things they won't let me get out of a

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Speaker 16: meeting before we talk about. So I just think that

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Speaker 16: they're you know, I do think it's on people's minds

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Speaker 16: for quite some time. I think we have only though recently,

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Speaker 16: really started to see the hedge fund community start to

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Speaker 16: pay attention.

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Speaker 2: And what, as I tell you, when we have the

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Speaker 2: hedge funds starting to pay attention to this, what could

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Speaker 2: that mean? For the broader market as we get closer

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Speaker 2: to that so called X state.

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Speaker 16: So look, I think that the issue that I noticed

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Speaker 16: I was in London a few weeks ago and we

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Speaker 16: were talking to a lot of sort of global macro

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Speaker 16: type hedge funds, and they were quite negative on the

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Speaker 16: US already because they think the US is expensive, they

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Speaker 16: don't believe in the tech trade that was underway at

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Speaker 16: the time and it's still underway today. And they also

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Speaker 16: just think that the US is economically disadvantaged relative to

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Speaker 16: Europe at this point in time. And so that's where

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Speaker 16: the debt ceiling comes in as sort of a potential

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Speaker 16: negative catalyst to push a market they don't already like

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Speaker 16: down and also to throw some extra burden on the

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Speaker 16: US economy. You know, my point is, I do think

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Speaker 16: that the debt ceiling is a risk for markets. I'm

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Speaker 16: not quite as vverish a lot of those London investors

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Speaker 16: I spill with, but I do think it does have

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Speaker 16: the potential to add to some volatility in the market

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Speaker 16: this summer. The thing we've been talking about since February

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Speaker 16: is there are kind of two kind of dramas you

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Speaker 16: can get associated with in the debt ceiling, A total

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Speaker 16: drama year where there's a lot of other stuff going on,

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Speaker 16: my twenty eleven, twenty eighteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, those

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Speaker 16: will get you about a ten to nineteen percent draw

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Speaker 16: down in the equity market. A non drama filled year

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Speaker 16: where this is kind of the only scandal going on,

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Speaker 16: that will get you about a five to six percent

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Speaker 16: hit to markets. And so our assumption has been we'd

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Speaker 16: at least see a five to six percent out of

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Speaker 16: volatility from this. But we do think the fact that

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Speaker 16: we have this banking crisis, keeping confidence fragile, in recession

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Speaker 16: fears really mounting, similar to twenty fifteen twenty sixteen, that

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Speaker 16: could put something a little bit more nefarious like a

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Speaker 16: ten percent draw down on the table. As always though, Nathan,

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Speaker 16: there are a lot of layers of this. This is

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Speaker 16: an onion. The more we peel it, the more complicated

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Speaker 16: things get. So you know, I do think that from

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Speaker 16: a sector perspective, we put out a piece this morning

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Speaker 16: that so things might be a little bit more complic

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Speaker 16: and we initially assumed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to pick up on your point about

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Speaker 2: the uncertainty that from the hedge funds, you're hearing from

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Speaker 2: about the growth trade. That has been something that's really

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Speaker 2: paid off in recent weeks as we get through this

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Speaker 2: debt ceiling standoff. What's your view on whether the growth

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Speaker 2: trade is still something worth looking at.

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Speaker 16: Well, you know, we had been thinking a few weeks

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Speaker 16: ago that the growth trade was due for a breather

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Speaker 16: and that the market was due for a breather, and

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Speaker 16: this was just really you know, based on the idea

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Speaker 16: that kind of this broader text cimt trade is a

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Speaker 16: huge component of the broader market from a marketcap perspective.

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Speaker 16: And then if you look at the tech trade and stuff,

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Speaker 16: we've had a whole bunch of catalysts. So first off,

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Speaker 16: we pre traded the set pause and interest rates coming down.

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Speaker 16: Then we had the banking crisis that push people out

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Speaker 16: of value and into growth again. People have been talking

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Speaker 16: about a sluggish economic recovery down the road that's good

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Speaker 16: for growth stocks. And then we have this monster earning

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Speaker 16: season for tech companies which really gave us some positive catalysts.

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Speaker 16: So we've said, look, we've had a lot of positive

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Speaker 16: cat for this trade. Maybe you know, it's time for

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Speaker 16: the market to take a breather on these debt ceiling fears,

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Speaker 16: and you know, what are the other catalysts for tech coming?

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Speaker 16: You know what is interesting is I did do an

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Speaker 16: analysis last week looking at sector performance and past debt

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Speaker 16: ceiling drawshounds, And the funny thing was, Nathan, it's the

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Speaker 16: value sectors in the market that tend to get hit hardest.

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Speaker 16: And so some of the more recent weakness we've seen

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Speaker 16: on financials, even when we had thought some of the

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Speaker 16: regional banking fears had died down. You know, we just

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Speaker 16: sort of laughed when we saw this because the debt

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Speaker 16: ceiling turns out it's just another thing that's much worse

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Speaker 16: for values than growth. So maybe we've picked up on

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Speaker 16: something else that could buy the growth and tech trades

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Speaker 16: for just a little bit longer.

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Speaker 2: Only about thirty seconds left here, Laurie. But another potential

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Speaker 2: catalyst is coming up tomorrow in the retail sales figures.

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Speaker 2: What's your expectation of whether that could add further to

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Speaker 2: the volatility.

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Speaker 16: So I think, you know, we're kind of living day

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Speaker 16: to day on these economic data planes. I think what

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Speaker 16: was interesting in this last reporting season was that we

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Speaker 16: were seeing evidence of both consumer resiliency. If you looked

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Speaker 16: at the more services driven companies and the more good

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Speaker 16: driven companies are continuing to talk about channel shifting and

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Speaker 16: more negative impacts that they're seeing. So that's the general

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Speaker 16: thing that we think we've been continuing to see in consumer.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 16: I do think investors, on the one hand, they're ready

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Speaker 16: to get a recession over if we're going to have it.

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Speaker 16: On the other hand, they do also want to see

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Speaker 16: some evidence that that consumer resiliency still exists. So I

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Speaker 16: think we'll look for those kinds of details tomorrow.

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