1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:00,720 Speaker 1: Earners. 2 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:01,120 Speaker 2: What's up. 3 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 3: You ever walk into a small business and everything just 4 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 3: works like the checkout is fast, their seats are digital, 5 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 3: tipping is a breeze, and you're out the door before 6 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 3: the line even builds odds are they're using Square. We 7 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 3: love supporting businesses that run on Square because it just 8 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 3: feels seamless. Whether it's a local coffee shop, a vendor 9 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 3: at a pop up market, or even one of our 10 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 3: merch partners. Square makes it easy for them to take payments, 11 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 3: manage inventory, and run their business with confidence, all from 12 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,520 Speaker 3: one simple system. One of the things we love most 13 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 3: is seeing neighborhood businesses level up. Business West Indian spired 14 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 3: writing our community that started with a small takeout counter. 15 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 3: Now with Square, they've been able to expand into a 16 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 3: full sit down restaurant and even started catering events across 17 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 3: the city. That's the kind of growth that aspires us, 18 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 3: and it's powered by Square. Square is built for all 19 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 3: types of businesses, from the corner bagel shop that turned 20 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 3: into a local chain, to the specialty market with that 21 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 3: thousands of unique items, to the stylists who's been holding 22 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 3: you down for years. If you're a business owner or 23 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 3: even just thinking about launching something soon. Square is hands 24 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 3: down one of the best tooes out there to help 25 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 3: you start, run and grow. It's not just about payments, 26 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 3: it's about giving you time back so you can focus 27 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: on what matters most ready. To see how Square can 28 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 3: transform your business, visit Square dot com backslash go backslash 29 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 3: eyl to learn more that Square dot Com backslash, go 30 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 3: backslash eyl. Don't wait, don't hesitate. Let Square handle the 31 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 3: back end so you can keep pushing your vision forward. 32 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 2: Okay. Overall predictions for twenty twenty six. 33 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 4: I think the first half of the year will be 34 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 4: absolutely amazing. I have doubt ended up at fifty two thousand, 35 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 4: spy seven forty nine. Couple of concerns though, midterm fallout One. 36 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 4: I'm worried about a mid your and how some of 37 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 4: this geopolitical stuff will shake and rut of the market. 38 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 4: I alluded to it earlier, but I bring it up 39 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 4: again now. Copper, gold, and silver are all hidden highs, 40 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 4: and they're supposed to be offsetting each other, which means 41 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 4: if people are risk on commodities, and now risk on 42 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 4: is coming back and teching crypto, something's going to have 43 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 4: to break. So you're gonna have to follow the administration 44 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 4: closely to see where those cracks could be. And I'll 45 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 4: be looking at who falls out of favor with him 46 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 4: and what industry they're in to see what will fall first. Lastly, 47 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 4: I don't think that the AI trade is over, but 48 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 4: we have to be very honest about some of these 49 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 4: companies like Adobe, maybe Salesforce. There are some companies in 50 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 4: the rust of two thousand s and P five hundred 51 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 4: and now that are just getting flat out murdered and 52 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 4: there isn't anything to come in to fix those companies. 53 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 4: And I'm worried about if AI, like software, eats the world, 54 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 4: but AI eat software, what happens to the bottom forty 55 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 4: percent of software companies that are no longer as usedful 56 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 4: can't carry your premium, and we don't have American excellence 57 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 4: in terms of our executive leadership byb Iger's time for 58 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 4: you to turn your succession plan too. Business has been 59 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 4: flat for three fucking years. 60 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 2: Everybody get. 61 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 4: I'm here to keep it real. They said they want 62 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 4: the old energy back. I'm just being real, Tim Cook. 63 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 4: It is time for you to step down. You go 64 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 4: over the Nike. You already got your off board and 65 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 4: plan Bob, it's time for you to turn over and 66 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 4: let them be co CEO and let that be that. 67 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: And then a geopolitical risk we talked about earlier with Taiwan, 68 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 4: but I'm really worried about what Trump would do in Nigeria, 69 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 4: Colombia and a couple other countries after this village wild 70 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 4: of plan H worked out in his favor. 71 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: It's interesting, I think we'll have another positive year. 72 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 2: We always do this. 73 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: The historic first five days of the trading year. So yeah, 74 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: we've we've done two already. And the theory is and 75 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: it's I mean eighty five percent of the time it 76 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: has been correct depending on how the first five days 77 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: of the trading year go for the S and P, 78 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: whether those first five days cumulative are positive, eighty five 79 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: percent of the time the years going positive. So we're 80 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: off to two positive days. I see we can get 81 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: to three more and that would be great. It came 82 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: to fruition last year as well, so we can add 83 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: to that percentage. I just think, you know, there were 84 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: times when war would mean volatility in the market over 85 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: the past. I don't know, it's very rare the past 86 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: two or three years I wouldn't say war conflict. We've 87 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: seen like maybe a slight pullback and then things are 88 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: back to normal in the market, which is interesting. I 89 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,799 Speaker 1: think there's going to be more conflict for sure, and 90 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 1: I'm interested to see how out how the market response 91 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: to that, because, like you said, people are going to say, 92 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: all right, well, this is an opportunity to make money 93 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: in some of these places. I think the AI story 94 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: is definitely still prominent. I think it's still leads. But 95 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: I am that that if we're going by that first 96 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: five day year, and we're going by that that theory, 97 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: then we also have to look at the midterm election 98 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:27,679 Speaker 1: theory and if roles changed in Congress, how that could 99 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: potentially affect the market. Uh, it usually has. But overall, 100 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: I think we have a positive year. I don't know 101 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: if we're I want to say double digits. I want 102 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: to say I think, yeah, I think it's double digits. 103 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 1: I know NAT did twenty again this year for the 104 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: thirty year in a row. I don't know if we're there, 105 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 1: but definitely over somewhere over ten. 106 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think thirteen percent is where we're 107 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 4: coming up. 108 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, very rare for the stock market to go up 109 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 5: four years in a row, double digits, but anything as possible. 110 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 5: But also the political risk, I think is a lot 111 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 5: of domestic a lot of domestic political risk that can 112 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 5: impact the market. I think if the Democrats really do 113 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 5: have a blue wave, then that's gonna be in the 114 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 5: short term negative for the stock market. Now, they're already 115 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 5: making attempts to undermine the undermine Democratic wave, and you 116 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 5: saw that happen in Minnesota with the Somali daycare situation. 117 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 5: This this thing was pushed on Twitter by Elon Musk. 118 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 5: When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want. 119 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 5: And there's no coincidence that the governments stepped down today. 120 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 5: It was it was it's a political yeah, he stepped 121 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 5: down as all, you're not gonna run for real. 122 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 2: This is a political hit job executed very well. 123 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 5: So they're not going down without a fight, as far 124 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 5: as Republicans are not going to go down without a fight. 125 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 5: They controlled pretty much every industry right now and they're 126 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 5: very well resourced. So MAGA two point zero. You may, 127 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 5: you may, you may not see the blue wave that 128 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 5: you think you will see. I think if the Republicans 129 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 5: keep the House in the Senate, that's going to be 130 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 5: good for the stock market in the short term. I 131 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 5: think if the Democrats take take the House, the Senate, 132 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 5: that's going to have a negative impact on it on 133 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 5: the stock market for the short term. 134 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 2: I agree. 135 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, that thirteen percent probably dropped the nine if that changes, yeah, yeah, yeah. 136 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 2: Let's let's see. But who knows, who knows Molly Daycare? 137 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 5: Who would have thought that Somali Somali Daycare would be 138 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 5: the number one story in the world. 139 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 4: It's crazy. They bring up that fraud, but not all 140 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 4: the other fraud that's being committed that benefits them ellentually 141 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 4: all allegend. 142 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 2: Right, it's ridiculous, It's ridiculous. 143 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 5: I mean, there's a few other days kids, for sure, 144 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 5: there's a few others that need to be talked about 145 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 5: if you want to. 146 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 2: If you really if let's listen, a couple. 147 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 4: Of hotel change allegedly they are not publicly traded. 148 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 2: Ever, so government subsidies, corporate bailouts. 149 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 4: I feel like Bernie Sanders, like what not saying it 150 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 4: is right? But boy, the package y'all get on the 151 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 4: back of what. Okay, y'all stop the non farm payroll? 152 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 4: Yeah change, I mean Biden changed the definition of recession, 153 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:49,199 Speaker 4: like what do we what? 154 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 5: Okay, But Democrats, y'all gotta they gotta do something because. 155 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 4: I answer this time, either not to cut you off 156 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 4: ain't the fucking answer. Y'all need to go get some 157 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 4: other piece. Shot to Meg and Clay Meg not the answer. 158 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 4: Y'all gonna have to bring some real solutions this time. 159 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 5: And the reason why I think that the Democrat if 160 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 5: they do win, is gonna have at least a short 161 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 5: term effect in the market is because I feel like 162 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 5: the Democrats only hope is to turn extremely to the left. 163 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 2: This is why Mandanni is the mayor of New York City. 164 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 5: You got it, and that's going to cause shockwaves in 165 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 5: the market if you have a if you have a 166 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 5: wave of. 167 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 2: Socialism that that takes over. 168 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 5: But but but that would actually be intelligent because they're 169 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 5: playing it too safe right now. They're playing it too 170 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 5: much in the middle. One foot in, one foot out. Mandanni, 171 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 5: he broke every every rule possible. He broke every rule possible, said, 172 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 5: if naw y'ahoo comes to New York City, he's getting 173 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,719 Speaker 5: arrested on site. And he got more Jewish votes than 174 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 5: any other mayor, and they got Eric Adams talking about 175 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 5: he moved. I think he moved to Israel. If I'm 176 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 5: not mistake, you should. But I'm just saying, like you 177 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 5: playing it safe and you still losing to ask. You 178 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 5: cannot play it safe in twenty twenty six. You gotta 179 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 5: a good brand lesson all or nothing. 180 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, there's nothing between. 181 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 3: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank. 182 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 3: A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring, 183 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 3: and sure they definitely can be, but understanding a professionals 184 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 3: routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little, 185 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 3: day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank. 186 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 3: It might seem boring the safe plan and make calculated 187 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 3: decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is 188 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 3: what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. 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