1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game Brian Grodowski. Well, you've 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: been asking for it, you've been demanding it, and it's 3 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: finally here. My YouTube channel where you're going to be 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: not only hearing but seeing every single episode is up 5 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: and running. You can, you know, not only just listen 6 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:20,799 Speaker 1: to my nasally voice. You could see this face nerding out, 7 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: adding a touch of sarcas chasm to politics. And now 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: that you know, my relive is always sort of the 9 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 1: face for radio and the voice for silent pictures. But 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: I really am so excited that some people asked for this, 11 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: and I'm going to try to make the YouTube page informative, 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: put on graphs. I'm working through it. I'm starting this 13 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: whole entire thing. We're also gonna upload old videos, old interviews, 14 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: so you can actually see me and my guests having conversations. 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: I think that's super important because you guys got to 16 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 1: see little clips on social media, but not the whole 17 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: entire thing. So it's very exciting. Go to a Numbers 18 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: Game podcast or Ryan Gradusky on YouTube, click the subscribe 19 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 1: buttons so you can see all the new content and 20 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: some of the old content, and it's very exciting. It's 21 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 1: super exciting. I'm very excited that I did this, and 22 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: I'm glad that you guys push me to do it, 23 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: because I probably wouldn't have done it if I think 24 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: some people requesting it. So it's on YouTube. Check it out. 25 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,279 Speaker 1: Before I go into the episode about the elections, because 26 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: that's honestly, what that's whatever wants to talk about right 27 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: now is just the elections. I'll go back into the 28 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: normal policy stuff and some current news and the data 29 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: behind it that's interesting, and then maybe towards the end 30 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: of the year we'll do some fun stuff. But I 31 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: have to do the elections right now because there's only 32 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: two more before the before it's over. And before I 33 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: go into that, I wanted to mention that on Tuesday 34 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: was the one year anniversary of me being canceled in 35 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,639 Speaker 1: CNN for selling Mehdi Hassan. That I hope is Beeber 36 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: doesn't go off now. It's something I don't think about, 37 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: like I don't think ever about like this episode. I 38 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 1: only even it's only ever brought up to me when 39 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: I'm someone's introducing me who doesn't know me, who comments 40 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: on it as if it's like as if I haven't 41 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 1: heard a twenty million times in the last year. But anyway, 42 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: it came and went, and I didn't think anything of it. Well, 43 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: Mehdi posts this long Twitter thing which he does not 44 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: let responses on because he didn't want to get ratioed. 45 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: But this long thing about how he had overcome racism 46 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: and how CNN has not invited him back on, and 47 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: how he's just one giant victim and you know, begging 48 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: and pleading basically for CNN to have him on. Which 49 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: the fact that you would grovel to get on the 50 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 1: lowest rated cable news network that has purposely not had 51 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: you on after you've been fired from MSNBC and stormed 52 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: off the set of CNN when I was on it. 53 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 1: What kind of man are you like? I mean literally, 54 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: what kind of man are you to have to cast 55 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: yourself as the eternal victim. This is the only way 56 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: you can have kind of a car, This is the 57 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: only way you can have any kind of you know, 58 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: place in society, in the commentary space. You've got nothing 59 00:02:57,960 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: else of interest to bring to the table, which he 60 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 1: and most of the time, because I've seen a few 61 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: of his interviews. But the reason CNN has not really 62 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: had him on The reason MSNBC fired him is he's 63 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: an immensely unlikable person and he's insufferable. And I will 64 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: say that host of CNN, after the whole entire debacle happened, 65 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 1: reached out to me and said, oh, thank god, you 66 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: said to Meddi, he's the worst person on television. So 67 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: that's the reason you're not getting on. It's not because 68 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: you're a victim. It's not because everyone hates you. It's 69 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 1: not because everyone hates you because you're you know, you're Muslim, 70 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: or because you're a victim, or because you're brown, or 71 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: whatever the hell excuse you have. Now. They don't like 72 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: you because you're not likable. And anyway, the whole day 73 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: came and went. Abby Phillips was talking about it too. 74 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: These people cannot get a name out of their mouth. 75 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: She was on the Breakfast Club talking about it and showing 76 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: how she has, you know, Guardrails on debate. Meanwhile, liberals 77 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,119 Speaker 1: have been on her show plenty of times saying far 78 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: worse things than my joke. And she's not bad than eye, 79 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: because that's that's Abby. Anyway, that whole tobacco blended me 80 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: this podcast and got me here, and I'm happy. I'm 81 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: happier being with you guys than I was being on CNN. 82 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: So let's go into the election and part two of 83 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: this conversation. I'm going to start talking about specifically the 84 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 1: early vote and an intensely look at the early vote, 85 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 1: and I have on the great Cliff Maloney from Citizens 86 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: Alliance to talk about that. So, but first we break 87 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: down the numbers for you to kind of understand where 88 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: we stand in the early vote in the New Jersey 89 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: governor's race. It it looks like Republicans must be waiting 90 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: for election day to show up. That is the hope 91 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 1: of Jack Chitarelli, because they are not showing up in 92 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: the early vote. I mean, Democrats are currently out voting Republicans, 93 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: not only by mail, which is very expected, but in 94 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: the in person voting. This is not where Jack Chitaly 95 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: wants to be. Democrats have five thousand more early votes 96 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: than Republicans. That's in person. When you count the mail 97 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: and the in person, Democrats have close to two hundred 98 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: and twenty thousand more votes banked than Republicans. Now, let's 99 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 1: go back to twenty twenty one into twenty twenty four. 100 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,119 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one Democrats on election day had two 101 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy six thousand raw votes raw vote advantage. 102 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: That was their lead from the day, and you could 103 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: see that Jack Chadarelli only lost by eighty thousand votes, 104 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: so he got close to two hundred thousand votes on 105 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: election day. He just needed that eighty thousand more. Now, 106 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: in the last four years, Republicans have been registering many, 107 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: many more voters, way more than Democrats. Democrats have actually 108 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: been losing voters in New Jersey, but their participation rate 109 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: among these new Republicans is not showing up in the 110 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: early vote. That's a cause for a concern. I mean, 111 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: they really have to sit there and wake up, either 112 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: to start changing the trend lines or you know, they're 113 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 1: all going to set their alarm on Tuesday and be like, hey, 114 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: I'm here, I'm ready to vote. I'm gonna cast a 115 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: million ballots, and I'm going to sit there and overwhelm 116 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 1: the massive Democratic lead. At this point. In twenty twenty four, 117 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: Republicans actually had nine thousand more in person early votes 118 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: than Democrats. And Democrats now, as I said, have close 119 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: to five thousand more early votes in person early votes 120 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: than Republicans. For Chitarelli to win this at this point, 121 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: he needs either a a massive get out the vote 122 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: election day effort. I mean, I'm talking quarter a million, 123 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: three hundred thousand massive election day turnout in his favor 124 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: to independence to break by huge margins, or a sizable 125 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: chunk of the Democratic vote to break in his direction. Now, 126 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 1: remember it's got the support of a lot of Hasidic 127 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: and Orthodox Jews. They are registered Democrats, that's by and large, 128 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: so some of this early Democrat vote will be voting 129 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 1: for Republican two. There are also a lot of Asian 130 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: and Hispanic Democrats that voted for Trump in Northern Jersey 131 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: that traditionally vote for Democrats. If they're sticking with Trump, 132 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 1: these Latino Trump Democrats, like in Passaic County, if they 133 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: stick with Chitarely and they show up, that will be 134 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: good for Jack. But those are really the only ways 135 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: at this point. You know, this election is going to 136 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: have a lot more votes than in twenty twenty one, 137 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: but not nearly as many in twenty twenty four. Jack 138 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: is a very slim way of winning at this point, 139 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: and it's getting less and less and less by the 140 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: day because Democrats are building this firewall of early voting. 141 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: It's key that Republicans start realizing how important the early 142 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: vote is. Now, let's look look at New York City, 143 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: where the Republican is really not that important. I mean, 144 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: he's important, but it's not He's not going to win. 145 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: But the election is very, very interesting right now in 146 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: New York. If I had to guess, and looking at 147 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: statistics that are coming out, New York's have about twice 148 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: as many, if not more than twice as many votes 149 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: in this mayoral election as the last one. I'm hearing 150 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: from people doing statistics on this and doing modeling that 151 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: it could be as many as two point five million 152 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: people show up to vote in this mayoral election. There were, 153 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: for context, one point one million in the previous mayor 154 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: election and two point eight million in the previous presidential election. 155 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: So you're having close to presidential turnout. What does this mean, 156 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: especially for polling when it comes to quormo versus mandani, 157 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: Polsters create universes of who they expect to show up. Right, 158 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: they are expecting it's going to be a certain demographic 159 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: of this group and that group, and a certain amount 160 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: of blacks and whites and Latinos and old people and 161 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: young people and independence and Republicans. So they're building these 162 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 1: models out right now. And what happens when the total 163 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: vote turnout is far high higher than what's expected, is 164 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: that these models can be wrong, and sometimes be wrong 165 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: by quite a bit. There is some good news for 166 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: Cuomo in this raw data that we're seeing coming out 167 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: of the five Burroughs. The electric is a lot older, 168 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: significantly older than it was in the Democratic primary when 169 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: Mandanni won. In the primary, voters under forty were the 170 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: largest voting block, and they vote broke heavily from Mandanni. 171 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: But so far in this part sport of part of 172 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: the early vote, seniors are casting a majority of ballots. 173 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: I'll repew that seniors are casting a majority of ballots. 174 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: More New Yorkers between the ages of seventy five to 175 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 1: seventy nine have cast ballads than voters between under the 176 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,200 Speaker 1: age of twenty five. So in that five four year 177 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: age black seventy five to sevent nine, they have cast 178 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: more ballots so far than the super young voters eighteen 179 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: to twenty four year olds. That's earth shattering that it 180 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 1: was not expected, because that is not what is happening 181 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: in the Democratic primary. Furthermore, the electorate is a lot 182 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: more democratic than it was in twenty twenty four. Zachary Denini, 183 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: who's been on this podcast and he is very, very 184 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: smart guy, he asked me that this election will be 185 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: about six points more Democrat than in the presidential election. Right, 186 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 1: Democrats will make up a bigger portion of the pie 187 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: in the mayoral race. Because it seems like even lower 188 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: propensity Democrats who don't typically vote in mayoral elections are 189 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,439 Speaker 1: showing up. That looks like it's good news for Cuomo. 190 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean so, but given that 191 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: they're older as well, that looks like it's good for Cuomo. 192 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: The other good news that Quoma has is that there's 193 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: a lot of people who are by demographic in his base, 194 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: right older voters, black voters, voters in southern Brooklyn which 195 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: is heavily Jewish, voters in western Queens, which is heavily black. 196 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: That is his key demographics, and they have been showing 197 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: up and as opposed to like what do they call it, 198 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 1: the Socialist belt in the New York City, the part 199 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: of Brooklyn and Queens that stretches across from Bay Ridge 200 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: near Staten Island, all the way to the tip of 201 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 1: the Bronx, everything that basically touches water near Manhattan, that 202 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: Socialist belt, the Commy Corridor, that's what they call the 203 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: Commy Corridor. Their numbers have been declining day in and 204 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: day out. So basically a lot of voters who were 205 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 1: so excited about from Mandonnie, they got out and they 206 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: voted the first day. There's more to be cast in 207 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: those areas. They could be waiting for election day, they 208 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: could be waiting for the weekend. Who knows, But so 209 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: far as the days have gone on, where Cuomo needs 210 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: the votes to come out of have been showing up. 211 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: Now it's not all bad news for Mendonnie because the 212 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: best counties that he's had, the counties where pollsters say 213 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: he's going to do the best, they're showing up in 214 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 1: big numbers Brooklyn and Manhattan. Brooklyn Manhattan have had good, 215 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: strong turnouts so far, better than any other borough. But 216 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: they're also more popular than any other Boat borough. So 217 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: it's not super surprising. Cuomo is going to need more 218 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: of that Upper East Side establishment black voter Jewish voters 219 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: sit there and come in strong. And also he's going 220 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: to need more Republicans to sit there and break for him. 221 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 1: There was a Quiney pc poll released on Wednesday that 222 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: foul Man Donnie's lead is slipping, but he still has 223 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: a sizeable ten point lead. It's forty three to thirty 224 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: three according to this poll, with Republican Curtis y while 225 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,719 Speaker 1: only getting fourteen points. Now, I'm not going to I'm 226 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: not going to labor the point of how I feel 227 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: about Curtis and how he's handled this election. Well, all 228 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: the things he could have done for the Republican Party 229 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: by playing ball with Cuomo and trying to get support 230 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: and money for Republican caenants running for city council and 231 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: for state local offices in the state. But what it 232 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: shows is is that Curtis is not even winning a 233 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: plurality of Republicans. A plurality of Republicans are voting for 234 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 1: Cuomo according to the Quiney PAX poll, which is just 235 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: so sad. I mean, Curtis really is going to ruin 236 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 1: his legacy in this entire thing. I think the most 237 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: interesting fact aside that, though, is according to this poll, 238 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: when asked about religions, Cuomo is winning Catholics, Jews, and Protestants, 239 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: while Mandanni's winning Muslims and people with no religion, which 240 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: really shows the state of the Democratic Socialist Party. It's 241 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: really people with no religion that are voting most heavily 242 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 1: for for Mandani, and that is the soulless future of 243 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: that party. Now, I want to talk briefly about Virginia. 244 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: Because of Virginia, they do not have elections. They don't 245 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: they don't register people buy political party have so this 246 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,559 Speaker 1: over and over and over again. So there's no registered 247 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: Republican Russian Democrats. They're only looking at how past performances 248 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: in counties have affected or will show up. Right, So 249 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: if they're saying, oh, this is super Trump or super 250 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 1: Harris County, then they're shrump with this percentage, and we 251 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: can guess how they're going to do so. And so 252 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: it's kind of it's kind of very voodoo science. I mean, 253 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 1: political science is voodoo science, but this is really voodoo science. 254 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: What is showing is that Trump counties, counties of Trump 255 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: one are at the very high end of turnout and 256 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: the very low end. And it's consistent Democratic counties that 257 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: really are in the middle for wins seers, who is 258 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: going to likely lose. I'm just telling everybody now. I 259 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: know that their hopes are high, but it is what 260 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: it is, and I'm going to tell you guys the truth. 261 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: For her to lose by a small enough margin that 262 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: they protect state legislative seats and Jason Miorz wins the 263 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: attorney general race, who knows the lieutenant governor race. Polling 264 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: there is kind of all over the place. But for 265 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: Jason Mirs, who's the most likely Republican to win in 266 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: that race. For him to do that, she needs to 267 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: keep the gap on election on the loss probably within 268 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: seven points. 269 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 2: Right. 270 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: If it gets to nine points, that amount of ticket 271 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: splitting is going to be very very difficult to carry 272 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: Mira's down ballid. That's my opinion. Those are the but 273 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 1: the early vote right now is really not It's I 274 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: don't want to say it's science. I don'tant to say 275 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: it's like the thing to look at. This is going 276 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: to decide the entire future, and there's nothing that could 277 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: trajectory because it's obviously not true. We've seen it in 278 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: past elections. But it's telling a narrative and telling a story, 279 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: and the story is very simple. Republicans need to get 280 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: more excited about these off year elections. About these local elections, 281 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: your local politics, your state politics. They matter a lot 282 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: more to your life on a day to daybreak basis 283 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: than whatever President Trump does in the White House. With me, 284 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: Next is my buddy Cliff. He's going to go into 285 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: how the early vody is shaking up both in New 286 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: Jersey and in Pennsylvania, WA. They have important races for 287 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: judges that will absolutely affect the state of the entire country. 288 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: So be right back with that. With me on today's 289 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: episode is Cliff Maloney from Citizens Alliance. Cliff, thank you 290 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: for being here. 291 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: Appreciate you having me so. 292 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: Cliff, you've been working in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. What 293 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: are some things you've seen on the ground. 294 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean on the ground right now, let's start 295 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 2: with Jersey. I mean there's tons of energy. Jack Chitarelli 296 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 2: is really, you know, a great candidate to go up 297 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 2: against Cheryl. She really kind of represents the Kamala Harrison 298 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 2: New Jersey. The more voters hear from her, the more 299 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: they see her, the more they understand what she stands for. 300 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 2: They're they're losing their hemorrhaging votes. But I want to 301 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 2: be clear, Ryan, you know Jersey is not a state 302 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: that is like, you know, I'm optimistic, but we're not 303 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 2: supposed to be able to win Jersey. Jack lost by 304 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 2: three points, but that was after the Democrats had taken 305 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 2: the White House. Right now we have the opposite. We've 306 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 2: got Trump in the White House, we have the House 307 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 2: and Senate. You know, the pushback should go in the 308 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 2: opposite direction. So the fact that it's neck and neck 309 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 2: right now with polling, you know, really tells me that 310 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 2: there's an opportunity. But the voters on the ground are engaged, right, 311 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 2: they're encouraged. I mean when we're talking and what we're 312 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 2: doing is going to Republicans and we are trying to 313 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 2: get every single Republican that has a mail in ballot 314 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 2: to send it back. And when we're doing that, I mean, 315 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 2: you know, we're talking to patriots, but they're not always 316 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 2: so consistent with their voting. But they like Jack. I mean, 317 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 2: they're following the race. This is not considered an off 318 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 2: yer race by New Jersey standards, and I'm optimistic that 319 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 2: he's got a shot. It is a competitive race in 320 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: New Jersey. 321 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 1: Now, how many mail in ballot requests people who've asked 322 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: for a mail in ballot and received it have not 323 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: returned it so far to our Republicans. 324 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, so this data just said a couple hours ago, 325 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 2: but out of the roughly one hundred and eighty four 326 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 2: thousand Republicans who requested a mail in ballot, there are 327 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 2: still seventy six thousand that have a ballot sitting on 328 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: their table. Let me say that again for your audience, 329 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 2: because I think this is very important. There are seventy 330 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 2: six thousand registered Republicans in the state of New Jersey 331 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 2: who went through the process of requesting a ballot have 332 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 2: the ballot sitting on their table and they haven't turned 333 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 2: it in. And remember Jack going lost by roughly eighty 334 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 2: thousand votes in twenty twenty one. So my whole objective, 335 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 2: Ryan is we're going out there. We've knocked roughly four 336 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 2: hundred and forty thousand doors, we're trying to knock five 337 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 2: hundred thousand by Tuesday. But our whole objective is to 338 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 2: get those seventy six thousand Republicans to just get that 339 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 2: ballot back right, send it back in, get that as 340 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 2: low as we can, because this raise to me, that's 341 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,120 Speaker 2: what it's going to come down to. Getting that number down, 342 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 2: having early vote actually compete and then we have to 343 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 2: dominate election day. 344 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, the thing is, that's the difference between 345 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 1: now and twenty twenty New Jersey is that in twenty 346 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: twenty four, Republicans at this point we're winning the early 347 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: in person voting and right now they're losing it. So 348 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: it gives me cause for concern that Democrats won are 349 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: so excited to go vote. You know, across the country 350 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 1: are seeing this, but also that Republicans seem to think 351 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 1: that election day is you know, another year away or 352 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: something because they're not showing up in strong numbers. Are 353 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: you seeing that over in Pennsylvania, where you're also very 354 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: active in both the presidential election and this off year election. 355 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, one last thing about Jersey, So Jack one election 356 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 2: day by two hundred thousand. What you just said is 357 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 2: actually a very good point, which is, if he's not 358 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 2: going to compete as well as he did in early vote, 359 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 2: he's going to have to win by roughly two hundred 360 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 2: and fifty thousand, or maybe even three hundred thousand, depending 361 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 2: on how the next couple of days go. So he's 362 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 2: going to need a huge turnout on election day. As 363 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 2: for Pennsylvania. Let me read you two numbers that to 364 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 2: me really show why I'm pretty confident about the Superior 365 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 2: Court and the Commonwealth Court races. And we can talk 366 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 2: retention if you want to. In twenty twenty five, right now, 367 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 2: if you look at the returns, Democrats are up two 368 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy thousand. In terms of two hundred and 369 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 2: seventy thousand, more Democrats have returned abouot than Republicans in 370 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three when we got to election day that 371 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 2: was four hundred and thirty thousand, So they're going to 372 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,439 Speaker 2: trend higher than that two seventy number. But to me, 373 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 2: if you can keep that without eclipsing where it was 374 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 2: last you know, two years ago, the last off year, 375 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 2: they lost some of those judicial races by about seventy 376 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 2: thousand votes. So to me, the Democrats are lagging there. 377 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 2: But I want to be honest, Ryan, everyone's talking about 378 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 2: these retention races. In the history of Pennsylvania, only one 379 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: judge has not been retained and it was a huge scandal, this, this, 380 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 2: and this. So obviously every door we knock on we're 381 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 2: talking about voting no. But the real battles are going 382 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 2: to be the down ballot battles of not just you know, 383 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 2: folks of the superior I'm a wealth court, but the 384 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 2: county wide races, the school board races, the local dog 385 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 2: catcher races. Right, that's what we're trying to do for 386 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 2: permanent infrastructure this year, so that we can win those races, 387 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 2: but then set us up for success in twenty twenty six. 388 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 1: What are some of the critical and I'll go back 389 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 1: to New Jersey in a second, what are some of 390 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: the critical counties that Republicans really should compete in, like 391 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 1: competing in Pennsylvania. 392 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the simplest answer I have there is, if 393 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 2: you're looking forward and you're looking at what are the 394 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 2: Democrats doing now and what are they preparing for in 395 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six, The three most competitive, most competitive congressional 396 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,439 Speaker 2: districts are Districts seven, eight, and ten. That's Mackenzie, Bresnahan, 397 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 2: and Scott Perry. Now we flipped two of those to 398 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 2: Republican in twenty twenty four. So to me, there's tons 399 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 2: of really competitive school district races which are great, and 400 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 2: we're we're targeting a bunch of those. But if you 401 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 2: said to me, for the implications of the country and 402 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 2: moving forward. It's what we're doing on the in Districts seven, eight, 403 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 2: and ten, and that's Central PA, that's Lehigh. Obviously, Bucks 404 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 2: County is always a focus as a bell weather to 405 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 2: kind of see where we're going. But the Democrats this 406 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 2: year are focused heavily on the congressional districts, even though 407 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 2: there's nobody on the ballot. And why is that Because 408 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 2: if you can get a thousand low propensity Dems or 409 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: for US Republicans to vote this year, they're absolutely going 410 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 2: to vote next year. You're developing habit and so to me, 411 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 2: it's getting that permanent infrastructure in those key counties and 412 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,120 Speaker 2: key districts to set us up for next year. 413 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: So for those who don't have the congressional map in 414 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: their head like I do, seven and eight are in 415 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,199 Speaker 1: the northeastern part of Pennsylvania and number ten, which is 416 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 1: represented currently and for a while by Scott Perry, is 417 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 1: around Harrisburg. It's around the capital of the state, which 418 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 1: has been treading blue for quite some time. Although Trump 419 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: did win it by a sizable portion, Scott Perry doesn't 420 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: perform as well as Trump and his district. But that's 421 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: neither here nor there, why is it? And I tried 422 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: almost putting a nail in my head screaming at people, 423 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 1: a nailing right against the wall, screaming people saying to them, 424 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: you have to vote early, because if you vote early, 425 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,400 Speaker 1: your resources are not spent on you, and they're spent 426 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: where they need to go on election day to people 427 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 1: who are less likely to show up. Can you emphasize 428 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: why it's so important for Republicans to start voting early 429 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: and not to have this sanctimonious opinion of voting only 430 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 1: on election day. 431 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 2: Well, and look, here's the biggest objection we get. They 432 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 2: don't want to vote early because they don't trust the 433 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 2: post office. Here's the deal in Pennsylvania. It's simple. You 434 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 2: can go to your county office and you can request 435 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 2: an on demand, on demand mail in bout and emergency 436 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 2: mail in bout and all that is you're at your 437 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 2: polling location, you fill out the mail in ballot, you 438 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 2: give it to the clerk exactly what you would do 439 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 2: on election day. And when it comes to resources, Ryan, 440 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 2: you get this. So many people don't understand why the 441 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 2: Dems have this advantage. Twenty twenty is a great example. Okay, 442 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 2: Joe Biden racked up two million mail in votes to 443 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 2: die Trump, so let's call it six hundred thousand. That 444 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 2: means that Biden has one point four one point four 445 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 2: million more folks that he doesn't have to spend a 446 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 2: dime on, that he doesn't have to send a mail 447 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 2: or two that he doesn't have to go to their door. 448 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 2: They don't have to run digital ads targeting that person. 449 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 2: And so we're not here to say, hey, listen, we 450 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: love that there's fifty days of voting in Pennsylvania. But 451 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 2: you have two options. One you say, hey, we don't 452 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 2: like it, so we're just not going to compete. We're 453 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 2: going to guarantee a loss. Or two we're going to 454 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: fight fire with fire. We're going to compete against the 455 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 2: Democrats using their own tactics to try to win. So 456 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 2: to all the Republicans out there, go out and figure 457 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 2: out a way, whether it's voting by mail, if you 458 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 2: want to get out for the emergency ballot in Jersey, 459 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 2: you can do early voting, but you've got to create 460 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 2: a plan because the resources. We have to spend two 461 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 2: to three times as much money to turn out our 462 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 2: voters on election day. Because the universe is so large 463 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 2: compared to the Democrats. It's a great, great Annalis point 464 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 2: and I do think a lot of the Republicans are 465 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 2: learning it, but we still have a lot more work 466 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 2: to do. 467 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, And there's just there is a very old mentality 468 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: of I have to only vote on an election day 469 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 1: and kind of making it a holidayven though it's not 470 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: a holiday. It's strange that the Democrats, which have been 471 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: trending older, are more fixed. Republicans are more fixed in 472 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: their ways than Democrats are towards the election day and vote. 473 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: What do you make of And I don't know if 474 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: you know the answer to this, but I'm going to 475 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 1: ask you anyway. There were a lot of first time 476 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 1: voters who voted for Donald Trump, a lot of first 477 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: time Republican voters two, a lot of like Hispanics and 478 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 1: Asians specifically in young men. Are they showing up or 479 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: are they are they go to go back to being 480 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: Democrats or are they sleeping this election? I think that 481 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: that's a key decision, especially for Jack Chittarelli, who wear 482 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,199 Speaker 1: Passeic County, which is a lot of Hispanics in it, 483 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,640 Speaker 1: voted for Trump for the first time I think since 484 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 1: eighty eight I might be run on that one, but 485 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: I think it's eighty eight Republicans one Passaic County. Can 486 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: Jack count on those voters or are they back to 487 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: Democrats or are they not voting? Opinion and maybe not 488 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 1: specifically Passaic County but state as a whole. 489 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 2: No, I think it's a great question. I think it's 490 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 2: going to be one of the things that determines the elections, 491 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 2: you know, across the country, both this year and next year. 492 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to switch back to Democrat. 493 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 2: I think it's did they just show up for Trump 494 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 2: and then they're going to stay home? Or do they 495 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 2: show up for Trump and now they're going to become 496 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,840 Speaker 2: consistent Republican voters. The thing that I'm most interested in 497 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: with a lot of those voters is they did vote 498 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 2: on election Day? Yeah, some of them voted by mail 499 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,199 Speaker 2: or voted early. But that's where election day is going 500 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 2: to do the talking. 501 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: Right. 502 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 2: If jacktion let me say this, and I'm just going 503 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 2: to be very blunt and honest, Ryan, You're always somebody 504 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 2: to kind of not, you know, have sensationalism, right, we 505 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 2: talk about the true rational state of things. If Jack 506 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 2: Chener rowing on wins election day by one hundred and 507 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,119 Speaker 2: fifty thousand votes, he is not governed, right, and so 508 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 2: there's going to be a large portion of those people 509 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 2: that are going to depend on does he win it 510 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,919 Speaker 2: by two hundred does he win it by two fifty 511 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 2: and he's governor? That I think is the question voters. 512 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,959 Speaker 1: So because the oh, I'm sure. So you're saying if 513 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 1: the vote is not large enough on election day. 514 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 2: Correct, So if he doesn't win by a margin of 515 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 2: two t one by two hundred thousand roughly in twenty 516 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,880 Speaker 2: twenty one, and so if we're seeing kind of these 517 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 2: numbers as we are now, which are not fantastic, We're 518 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 2: not winning early vote by five points, right, We're losing 519 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 2: early vote. We're down here a couple thousand votes, which 520 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,480 Speaker 2: is saying something when you compare it to four years ago. 521 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 2: So when you asked me about these Trump voters that 522 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 2: came out for the first time, it's TBD until we 523 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 2: get to election day. Because a lot of them were 524 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 2: election day voters. I think Jack's done a great job 525 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 2: to try to get them to come out. I don't 526 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 2: know how much they're going to be motivated because do 527 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 2: they see Cheryl as that much of a motivation to 528 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 2: come out. 529 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: I hope they do. 530 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 2: I think a lot of the messaging that everybody's doing 531 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 2: is to try to drive that. But what we're hearing 532 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 2: at the door from a lot of Hispanics and Black 533 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 2: voters that voted for Trump is they're in for Jack right. 534 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 2: They're returning their ballots. Election day is going to be 535 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 2: with determines. Does he win it by two hundred thousand, 536 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 2: does he win it by two fifty. I think we 537 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 2: have to be in that range to pull it off. 538 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: So I have some good gossip for you that I 539 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 1: haven't shared on the podcast yet. One of my Democratic 540 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: consultant friends told me that Mickey Cheryl is telling people 541 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: that she's planning to run for president in twenty twenty eight, 542 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: right after she wins the New Jersey governorship. But she 543 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 1: has got she's going to be the female candidate to run, 544 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: and she is planning and plotting a presidential run, you know. 545 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: And she says she'd believes she has this run in 546 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: the bag, and this New Jersey is just this quick 547 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: stepping stone she's going to make and turn right around. 548 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 1: And she has this charisma and unique ability and everyone's 549 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: gonna be shocked in an election day. I think it's 550 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 1: hysterical because there's probably no state that the rest of 551 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 1: the car. I'll tell you this little joke. I had 552 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 1: a good friend back in twenty fourteen when it was 553 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,360 Speaker 1: looking like Christy and Cuoma, we're going to run. One 554 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: of my friends, a smart Democrat, said to me, if 555 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 1: it's Christi versus Cuomo, forty eight states will leave the Union. 556 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,400 Speaker 1: And that is basically if it's New York versus New Jersey, 557 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: because there is not a demographic that most of the 558 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: country's like, oh god, Jersey and New York that they 559 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,040 Speaker 1: cannot stand more so. But she does believe that she 560 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,879 Speaker 1: is going to run for president in the blink of 561 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: an eye. And it's crazy. But this is what she's plotting. 562 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: This is why I think some of her supporters are 563 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 1: working so hard for her, so they think that this 564 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 1: is a quick turnaround for the White House. 565 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 2: Talk about being tone deaf. I mean, really, any Democrat 566 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 2: that is even mildly talented should win New Jersey by 567 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 2: five points at a minimum, at a minimum, and here 568 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 2: she is in this dead heat race. But she, like 569 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 2: I said, I mean, this isn't a talking point. This 570 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 2: isn't rhetoric. She reminds me of Kamala Harris. The more 571 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 2: that voters interact with her, the more vote she loses. 572 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 2: The more that she's out there, people just don't think 573 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 2: she's authentic. And now that you're telling me this inside scoop, 574 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 2: this gossip, she's also out of touch with reality. Right 575 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 2: what state does she think she can win in a primary? 576 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 2: You know, she can't even open her mouth without having 577 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 2: a gaff. 578 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: I guess she thinks that black voters in the Deep 579 00:28:54,960 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 1: South are really wanting Mikey Cheryl to be No, No, it's 580 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 1: just it's good gossip and it's interesting. And I think 581 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 1: that's that's why they're working so hard for her right now, 582 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,479 Speaker 1: especially o whip with the votes is not because they 583 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: think of Trenton. They think of the thinking of the 584 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Avenue. Where can people go to help your organization 585 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 1: or boom go to get involved in any of this stuff, 586 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 1: especially in these critical Spring states that you're part of. 587 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, So there's two very very distinct asks that I 588 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 2: have of everybody. Number One, if you want to come 589 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 2: to PA or New Jersey, come out knocked doors. We'll 590 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 2: get you set up over the next couple of days 591 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 2: as we lead up to Tuesday and two. If you 592 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 2: can't come out sponsor a ballid chaser, right, I told 593 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 2: you there's seventy six thousand of those folks in New Jersey. 594 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 2: We've got the same problem in Pennsylvania. One hundred and 595 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 2: seventy five dollars sponsors a full day of ballot chasing. 596 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 2: You want to give the PA, it's pachase dot com. 597 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 2: You want to give the New Jersey it's njchase dot com. 598 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 2: Really appreciate it, Ryan, But this is the final stretch 599 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 2: and we're not going to let up till we've knocked 600 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 2: five hundred thousand doors in both Pennsylvania and five hundred 601 00:29:58,560 --> 00:29:59,959 Speaker 2: thousand doors in New Jersey. 602 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: Well, Clip, thank you for being here. I appreciate it. 603 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 2: Thanks so much. 604 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: Now it's time for Asking Me Anything. Guys. I love 605 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 1: the Ask Me Anything segment. Email me your questions Ryan 606 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at Polural Numbers 607 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 1: gamepodcast dot com. I answer every question, either privately or publicly, 608 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: so I'm so excited to get these. First is Mike 609 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: from Nevada. He said that he has only been in 610 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 1: the political world. Maybe since twenty fifteen and paying attention, 611 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 1: especially locally in Nevada. I think I'm pronouncing Nevada correctly. 612 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 1: They're very Nevada and Oregon are very sticklers for how 613 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 1: you pronounce their state's name. So if I'm mispronouncing it, 614 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: I'm saying it like a New Yorker. I apologize, he says, 615 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 1: I know, we only have six electoral College votes, but 616 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: they have a Democrats have a super majority in the state. 617 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 1: I think Nevada has one of those eighteen to twenty two. 618 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: I guess the year cycles during COVID where Governor Sislac 619 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: really just let anything fly, including a mass of Jerrymander 620 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 1: and a Governor Lombardo who is a Republican FI has 621 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 1: such a split government that nothing is getting done. Okay, 622 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 1: that's absolutely true. It is completely flying under the radar. 623 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: How Democrats in Nevada had like a surgical hand when 624 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,959 Speaker 1: it was coming to redistrict the state, and how that's 625 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 1: still affecting the state even though they have a Republican 626 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,479 Speaker 1: governor and even the state voted for Donald Trump in 627 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, Nevada Democrats were very, very effective despite 628 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 1: the state moving six points from twenty twenty to twenty 629 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: twenty four. In the presidential election state, the state legislature 630 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: and the congressional delegation barely moved. The congressional delegation didn't 631 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 1: move at all but one district didn't vote for Trump. 632 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 1: But even at the state level, even at the state 633 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 1: assembly level, they barely move. So Trump won the state 634 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 1: fifty one to fifty one point five to forty seven 635 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: point five. Trump won only sixteen out of forty two 636 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: Assembly seats in the state, despite a state wide win 637 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 1: of three points. That means the only he only carried 638 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 1: thirty eight percent of all the Assembly seats. Republicans down 639 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 1: ballot running for state Assembly received one hundred thousand more 640 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 1: votes raw votes statewide than Democrats did, but only managed 641 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 1: to capture one single state Assembly seat. And there's only 642 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: one other state Assembly seat that Democrats won but Trump won. 643 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: So like there was one ballot, a splitting state a district, 644 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 1: every other district either Harris carried it or Trump carried it. 645 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 1: I will say there is some chance for Nevada Republicans 646 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 1: going into next year, into twenty twenty six. Now, the 647 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 1: way it works is that every two years, the entire 648 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: state Assembly is up, but they split the vote every 649 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: four years in the state Senate, so it's not every 650 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: district's not up every year. In the state Senate where 651 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 1: Democrats hold a super majority or closest majority, there are 652 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: two districts that one that Trump won and one that 653 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 1: he barely lost that are going to be really competitive. 654 00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 1: That's District eight Western Las Vegas and District twelve in 655 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 1: southern Las Vegas. Trump one District eight, and he lost 656 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 1: District twelve by half a point. That is where Republicans 657 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: are going to put their efforts in to sit there 658 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: and break the Democrats and majority and get very close 659 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,240 Speaker 1: to winning an outright majority in the state Senate. If 660 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 1: I was a Republican sultan the state, I would put 661 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: my efforts specifically, not only in Governor Lombardo's re election 662 00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: and the congressional races, but those two state Senate districts 663 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 1: are super important to try to break Democrats control and 664 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 1: lock on the state. I did some numbers, some research. 665 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 1: There are ten districts in the state Assembly that Trump 666 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 1: lost by five points or less, right where Kamala beat 667 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,600 Speaker 1: Trump by less than five points. Ten there's only forty 668 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:49,600 Speaker 1: two Assembly seats, so and Democrats control twenty seven of them, 669 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 1: so almost one in three Assembly seats is close to 670 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:58,640 Speaker 1: swing swing seat proportions because they managed to draw just 671 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 1: enough Democrats to keep it to reach Republicans. I mean, 672 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 1: as a political consultant, kudo's how good they were doing that. 673 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: But for Republicans it's going to be very difficult to 674 00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,760 Speaker 1: climb back. It's not impossible, especially the state senate level. Okay, 675 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 1: next question comes from Bill. He says, what are your 676 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 1: thoughts on paston versus Cornin in Texas? His packson offering 677 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 1: a model for ambitious ours in Oklahoma. Langford isn't up 678 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,320 Speaker 1: until twenty twenty eight. Maybe most people will forget his 679 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:29,359 Speaker 1: terrible immigration bill by then, but I won't. I won't either. 680 00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: Bill More Generally, what needs to happen to get challengers 681 00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 1: to weak red state senators? I guess us senators, and 682 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,080 Speaker 1: I guess is what he means. If you were to 683 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 1: expand the idea beyond ask me anything segment, I'd be 684 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,680 Speaker 1: curious to know how to pull this off. The Senate 685 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 1: Conservative Fund is out there, what do you think of them? 686 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,759 Speaker 1: They were around pre Trump and they don't like amnesty. 687 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,240 Speaker 1: But do you think they're going to they're in tune 688 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:57,359 Speaker 1: with the current GOP. Oh, this is a hell load 689 00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 1: of question. Okay, So first of all, Paxton versus Horny 690 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 1: in Cornyn is I got a lot more money than 691 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: Paxton does, and Paxton has a branding issue. I did 692 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,840 Speaker 1: a lot of work in Texas and I knew people 693 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 1: who personally knew Paxton, and their comment on Paxson is 694 00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,400 Speaker 1: was always, he's a crook, but he's our crook. That's 695 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 1: the way conservatives feel about Paxton. And he's not trustworthy. 696 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:25,360 Speaker 1: I mean's allegedly had affairs on his wife, allegedly was 697 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:29,400 Speaker 1: not the he was not Jimmy Stewart. And mister Smith 698 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,400 Speaker 1: goes to Washington, I'll just say that, and mister Smith 699 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 1: goes to Austin, And that kind of branding issue gives 700 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,640 Speaker 1: people anxiety. But the biggest piece of anxiety that give 701 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 1: him is would he make the US Senate race in 702 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 1: Texas competitive if Democrats had a good year in the 703 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 1: generic ballad and if they put out a good candidate. 704 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:52,120 Speaker 1: Because Democrats don't have a pathway to a majority in 705 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,520 Speaker 1: the Senate. I mean, they kind of do, but it's very, 706 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 1: very very difficult. And the thing that Cornyn has that 707 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:03,400 Speaker 1: Langford does is Cornyn has like decades of betrayal towards Conservatives. Right, 708 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 1: Cornyn was the person to vote for Democratic judges. He 709 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 1: was horrendous on immigration, which is a huge issue in Texas, 710 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,920 Speaker 1: and he always was willing to work with the Democrats 711 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 1: for an amnesty bill. He's also kind of up there 712 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: in age, which I think things are affecting, and Wesley 713 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 1: Hunt being in the race absolutely will split the anti 714 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 1: cornn vote. I think that Cornying can be defeated if 715 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 1: it's a one on one race. I don't know if 716 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:30,920 Speaker 1: Wesley Hunt's going to have the ability to do it. Now. 717 00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,440 Speaker 1: They do have runoffs in the state, and I don't 718 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: know if Corny can get a fifty one percent in 719 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: the first round of it. But it's gonna be very 720 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:38,880 Speaker 1: expensive to sit there and try to hold this. This is 721 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,240 Speaker 1: probably gonna be one hundred to two hundred million dollars 722 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 1: primary at least, I think one hundred to two hundred 723 00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,759 Speaker 1: million dollar primary, if not way more than that. And 724 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:52,080 Speaker 1: they're really gonna gun for his weakness when it comes 725 00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 1: to when it comes to issues like immigration. That's where 726 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 1: Paxton will shine. Paxson's going to shine on the show immigration. 727 00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,920 Speaker 1: He's better on it than Corner and he's probably the 728 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 1: I not the best ag on in the country because 729 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 1: we have Chris Kobek, but he's one of the top three. 730 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,560 Speaker 1: He's really good on it. And he's going to say 731 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,399 Speaker 1: I'm the authentic conservative despite my personal life. Don't look 732 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,920 Speaker 1: at that. Cornyn, who's hired a lot of Trump staffers 733 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 1: from the twenty twenty four campaign, is going to sit 734 00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 1: there and say I'm the guy who could win. And 735 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 1: Wesley Hunt's gonna be saying I'm the conservative who can win. 736 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,719 Speaker 1: So yeah, as far as Langford goes, Langford's week, but 737 00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,200 Speaker 1: you have to have a top tier challenger, because you 738 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,960 Speaker 1: really because Langford doesn't screw up that often. Despite him 739 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: looking like the like the killer doll who is from 740 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 1: a lot of horror movies, he is very rarely screwed up. 741 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 1: He's one of my least favorite senators though, so I 742 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,439 Speaker 1: would love to see him a primary challenge. As far 743 00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:51,000 Speaker 1: as the Senate Conservative funding other organizations, they're not large enough, right. 744 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 1: There's no organization as large as the Club for Growth 745 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,440 Speaker 1: or the Trump campaign, so they would need to be 746 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 1: sizely larger take on entrenched incumbents. Anyway, that's my answer 747 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,160 Speaker 1: on that one. I Hopelink for loses and I don't 748 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 1: have an opinion on Texas right now. I'm interested to 749 00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: see where things are going because certainly a lot of 750 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,279 Speaker 1: there's a lot of Republican on Republican violence going on, 751 00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:19,600 Speaker 1: So we'll see who breaks in the lead as people 752 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 1: start paying more attention. I just want to give out 753 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 1: before I conclude this episode, I want to give a 754 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,759 Speaker 1: personal thank you to one of my listeners, Vince from California. 755 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,600 Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that growing up 756 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 1: in the nineties, you would see a movie on television 757 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:35,440 Speaker 1: and then you would never see it again. And I 758 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,360 Speaker 1: saw this movie one time on TV that I loved 759 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: and was never able to see it again because that 760 00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 1: was the nineties, and unless they replayed things or you 761 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,279 Speaker 1: have the TV guide channel or the physical book in hand, 762 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,680 Speaker 1: you just didn't even know what was playing sometimes. So 763 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,719 Speaker 1: I mentioned this movie and I briefly brought it up 764 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:51,320 Speaker 1: and said how much I loved it as a kid, 765 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,879 Speaker 1: and Vince from California found the name of this movie. 766 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 1: I've spent no joke years trying to find this movie. 767 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,440 Speaker 1: It was called the Phantom Toll Booth from when I 768 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,319 Speaker 1: was a kid, who's made in nineteen seventy. Vince, thank you, 769 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,279 Speaker 1: thank you, thank you. You have no idea how much 770 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 1: like you made my entire week because of your email 771 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,319 Speaker 1: and how you found this movie, this random movie I 772 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,440 Speaker 1: was barely able to describe that I saw when I 773 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,520 Speaker 1: was like eight years old. So Vince, thank you. I 774 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,879 Speaker 1: love my listeners, you guys, You guys do the most 775 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,160 Speaker 1: and I really really appreciate it, and I appreciate you 776 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,800 Speaker 1: all for listening to this episode. If you like this podcast, 777 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,279 Speaker 1: you can now subscribe to it on YouTube, and you 778 00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,280 Speaker 1: could like it on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever 779 00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,319 Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Please subscribe and I will talk 780 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,920 Speaker 1: to you guys on Monday day before election day, so 781 00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:34,440 Speaker 1: tune in