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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information five

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Speaker 1: five dollars.

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Speaker 2: This is a regular level.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need census to be.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, miss.

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Speaker 1: Suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up. All right,

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Speaker 1: hit that horn, very bless.

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Speaker 2: What is up, everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast from the Action network

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Speaker 3: of Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 3: The NFL Divisional Round is here. This is our player

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Speaker 3: projections pod. Momentarily I'll be joined by one of the

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Speaker 3: most accurate fantasy football rankers in the game, the odds

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Speaker 3: maker Sean Kerner. But a quick reminder, all of our

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Speaker 3: fantasy football content is available right now over at fantasylabs

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Speaker 3: dot com. Plus Fantasy Labs new feature, pick Labs is

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Speaker 3: showing which plays actually stand out across sportsbooks and sites

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Speaker 3: like Underdog and Prize Picks.

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Speaker 3: at Fantasy labs dot com slash pricing. In today's episode,

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Speaker 3: we're going to dive into our top five at each

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Speaker 3: skill position for the divisional round. Discuss guys are high

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Speaker 3: and loan, throw out some props, Kerner, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: Still got to get to these these cardio kings a

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Speaker 3: couple of times before the season ends. These are the

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Speaker 3: guys have the most route thrown with no targets. Who

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Speaker 3: we got for week for the Wildcard weekend?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Wildcard weekend, it was my guy, Mitchell Evans for

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Speaker 1: the tight ends twelve routes, zero targets, and wide receiver

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Speaker 1: was Xavier Smith with twenty two routes zero targets. Not

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Speaker 1: too surprising there, you know, he's more of that deep

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Speaker 1: threat role. But he did see a ton of playing time,

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Speaker 1: which I found interesting, but it was Xavier Smith was

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Speaker 1: the wild card weekend cardio king.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Rams are kind of getting getting to be

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Speaker 3: a headache to project just because it's like how much

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Speaker 3: one three are they gonna use? They kind of really

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Speaker 3: didn't use much as much as they've been using for

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Speaker 3: the last like six weeks in that playoff game, and

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Speaker 3: they did get behind or they were putting in a

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Speaker 3: neutral game strips that gonna have something to do with it.

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Speaker 3: But let's get into quarterback Top five division round, Kerner,

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Speaker 3: who you got?

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Speaker 1: Let's see top five? I got Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford,

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Speaker 1: Drake May, Caleb Williams, and Bow Knicks.

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Speaker 3: I got, yeah, Alan Stafford, May, Williams Nick. So in

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Speaker 3: alignment tear who you hire on?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not many quarterbacks this weekend, so not shocked up.

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Speaker 1: Pretty much the same top five, but I'm high on

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Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford here, although he is a very interesting projection

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Speaker 1: this week. You know, he's coming off that three hundred

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Speaker 1: and four passing yards, three touchdown game against the Panthers

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Speaker 1: to you know, pull off the wind. But he did

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Speaker 1: play through that finger sprain he suffered on his drawing

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Speaker 1: hand on his index finger which seems like a pretty

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Speaker 1: important finger. But he's the kind of guy He's played

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Speaker 1: through so many injuries during his potential Hall of Fame career.

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Speaker 1: I'm not that worried about it, but we'll have to

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Speaker 1: kind of monitor his practice reports this week. So I'm

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Speaker 1: assuming he's going to be fine. He has an extra

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Speaker 1: day to heal up since they played on Saturday. But

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Speaker 1: he's facing a defense that just allowed Jordan Love to

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Speaker 1: go for three hundred and twenty yards and four touchdowns

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Speaker 1: against him. I was high on him last week. They

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Speaker 1: really struggle to you know, generate pressure on quarterbacks, so

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, Stafford should have a fairly clean

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Speaker 1: pocket here. Stafford has DeVante back. I think he threw

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Speaker 1: what like twenty targets to DeVante, so that could my

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Speaker 1: receptions prop on him. I had a very good weekend,

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Speaker 1: but that I started off with the loss with that one.

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Speaker 1: But having DeVante back is huge. Higbee back is also huge,

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Speaker 1: So everyone's at full health. Really if Ferguson returns back

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Speaker 1: this week as well. But this game could be you know,

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Speaker 1: freezing cold, so that that could be a reason, you know,

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Speaker 1: Stafford could have an off game here. Sometimes he struggles

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Speaker 1: you know, in extreme weather, plus you know, the cold

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Speaker 1: could make his finger worse. We'll we'll have to see.

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Speaker 1: And it's a game where you know they could lean

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Speaker 1: on the run game here against this Bears defense. So

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Speaker 1: I like the matchup for Stafford, but there's some other

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Speaker 1: factors that could you know, hurt his upside. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: all having said all that, he opens the week as

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Speaker 1: my number two QB.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my number two QB as well.

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Speaker 3: The guy I'm gonna talk about though, is Caleb Williams

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Speaker 3: in on the opposite side of that game. Just because

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Speaker 3: that Ram defense, you know, expected them to get better

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Speaker 3: against the run with Lake back, which they pretty much did.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they shut down that Panther run game for

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Speaker 3: the most part outside of a couple of touchdown runs

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Speaker 3: or I guess three touchdown runs, but they were not

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Speaker 3: good against the pass and that included Lake in that game.

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Speaker 3: So I think Caleb Williams, I know it's in the

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Speaker 3: cold weather, but that you know, he's been playing in

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Speaker 3: this all year, two years now, so I think that's

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Speaker 3: kind of benefit to Caleb here. And you know they

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Speaker 3: let Bryce Young throw for two hundred and sixty four yards.

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Speaker 3: Did take forty attempts, but you know, Jalen Cocher was

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Speaker 3: just roasting them. So if you look at Caleb Williams

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Speaker 3: at home, seven point three yards in attempt, seventeen to

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Speaker 3: four touchdown pick ratio, twenty four rushing yards per game,

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Speaker 3: a couple of touchdowns compared adrown the road, he drops

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Speaker 3: to six point seventy five yards for attempt with just

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Speaker 3: twelve touchdowns five picks. So he's averaging about fifteen more

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Speaker 3: total yards and two point one total touchdowns at home

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Speaker 3: one point four total touchdowns per game on the road.

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Speaker 3: So he's been much better at home. The Bears did

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Speaker 3: get that home. You know, he get that seed to

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Speaker 3: get the number to get another home game here. So

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Speaker 3: I like cabb in a spot because I think he

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Speaker 3: was he ended up him and he ended up being

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Speaker 3: the guy. What was your over under last week for.

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Speaker 1: The three twenty like three twenty one and a half

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Speaker 1: or something like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he was the guy. He was hitting it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah that was sixty. All it takes is one

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Speaker 1: guy to just go off to clear that. But I

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Speaker 1: thought that would have been a fun prop to actually

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Speaker 1: bet on. I could have gotten either way on that,

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Speaker 1: but I've already kind of thinking about next year when

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Speaker 1: it comes to like evaluating fantasy rankings and like, where

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Speaker 1: do you think he's gonna be a top five QB

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Speaker 1: and ADP next year?

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Speaker 2: He has a chance?

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Speaker 3: Like who, So, like you have Josh Allen, we got,

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Speaker 3: we got, uh, we got Josh Allen, Hurts would probably

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Speaker 3: drop off maybe, right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Who would think drop off?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Lamar if you project him to miss a couple

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Speaker 1: of games, I don't know. Drake May's a Locke.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it probably be like top eight.

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Speaker 3: I don't know about top five. I guess some people

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Speaker 3: would draft him fifth maybe, but.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would. I think that's my point

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Speaker 1: because he kind of he just reminds me so much

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Speaker 1: of Josh Allen and Mahomes to a certain extent. If

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Speaker 1: you remember, Josh Allen really didn't break out until it

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Speaker 1: was that year three season, and just you know, they

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Speaker 1: have Luther Burden, who I'm high on, you know, Dune Day.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's healthy, he's good. But Colson Loveland, you know,

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Speaker 1: he just has all these young weapons and he has

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Speaker 1: this rushing upside, could be even better in year three.

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Speaker 1: So it just kind of I'm kind of thinking like

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Speaker 1: is he a top five quarterback or maybe just like

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Speaker 1: top eight, But the needle is definitely pointing up on

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Speaker 1: him long term, like.

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Speaker 2: Would you want him or Trevor Lawrence next year?

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Speaker 1: Well it's funny because remember when Trevor Lawrence is having

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Speaker 1: a good like late season run, what was it three

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Speaker 1: years ago? And yeah, everyone's like, oh, he's a lock

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Speaker 1: to be ranked in the top five, and then you

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Speaker 1: know it took him three years to finally achieve that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that would be interesting. I think, yeah, Lawrence

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Speaker 1: and Caleb is probably a toss up at this point.

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Speaker 1: I think right now I'd probably lean Lawrence. It depends

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Speaker 1: on how they handle the offseason, right because, like you know,

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Speaker 1: the Jaggars might trade Brian Thomas Junior away. Brian Thomas

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Speaker 1: Junior might be back to his normal self next year,

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Speaker 1: so Lawrence could be even better. But I'm not actually

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six projection state right now, so I

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Speaker 1: don't know, but I can't wait to kind of dive

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Speaker 1: in and kind of see where these guys fall. But

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Speaker 1: just I think, just with Caleb, he's just going to

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Speaker 1: be even better next year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, he has a lot of room to

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Speaker 3: grow in especially in the completion percentage that so, but

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Speaker 3: I mean that's that also could lower his floor too,

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of right.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of but you know, being in near

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Speaker 1: too with Ben Johnson will probably help. You know, there

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Speaker 1: has been some growing pains and he's been better you know,

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Speaker 1: later in the year, later in games. So maybe he

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Speaker 1: just starts off better, you know, next year. So just

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Speaker 1: he'll be a fascinating projection nexer for sure.

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Speaker 2: Who are you low on at quarterback for the division?

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Speaker 1: I'm low on brock Purty here. You know, was able

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Speaker 1: to overcome a tough matchup against the Eagles through for

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Speaker 1: two sixty two touchdowns and you know advance but has

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Speaker 1: another brutal matchup here against the Seahawks, and you know

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Speaker 1: he just lost one of his top pass catchers in

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Speaker 1: George Kittle to an achilles injury. You know, maybe it's

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Speaker 1: that Santa Clara Electric substation I was telling you about.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if you have a dive into that, SERI,

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Speaker 1: but it really picked up state and I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: I believe in it, but boy did it pick up

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Speaker 1: steam this week. I think Simmons was talking about it

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Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne even reference it in a joking way after

201
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Speaker 1: the game, so it's really taken off again. Not sure

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Speaker 1: I buy it, but you know, when it comes to Party,

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Speaker 1: that's a massive loss. And we don't know if Fricky

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Speaker 1: Piersoll's going to return this week. Maybe another substation casualty there,

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Speaker 1: but losing Kittle is just a massive blow to this

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Speaker 1: offense in general. The good news is, you know, Party,

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Speaker 1: he does seem a little bit more willing to use

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Speaker 1: his legs in the playoffs. He had three scrambles last game,

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Speaker 1: and I've said, you know, he has similar rushing upside

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Speaker 1: to someone like Mahomes, so maybe he kind of, you know,

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Speaker 1: rushes a little bit more this week to offset that

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Speaker 1: a bit. But when it comes to you know, DFS

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Speaker 1: prop markets, I'm gonna be a little bit lower on

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Speaker 1: Party this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and how much of the passing touchdown

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Speaker 3: share you give in to Juwan Jennings, what about you? Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean that's yeah, got to right, And at the

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Speaker 3: last few postseason games it's been around there.

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Speaker 1: Well just just goes right into that full Kittle role.

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Speaker 1: So maybe I'll just give him Kittle's projection.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he actually, yeah, he's just bad in that role.

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Speaker 3: I mean he's not He's no Kiddle, but yeah, he's not.

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Speaker 2: He's decent. I actually have he could, he could. He's

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Speaker 2: in the mix of lead. I mean, we'll get to

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Speaker 2: this later, but he's in the mix to lead all

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Speaker 2: tight ends. I think in scoring this week. It's an

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Speaker 2: interesting yah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, he'd be a sneaky bet. Maybe Juice

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Speaker 1: Juice said, what fifty yards receiving, Maybe we'll uh, maybe

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Speaker 1: I need a ladder Juice or something like that. But

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Speaker 1: someone's got to have to step up with Kittle out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm along c J.

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Speaker 3: Stroud And you know, this just comes back to another

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Speaker 3: outdoor game for the Texans and his Patriot defense.

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Speaker 2: Sneaky good.

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Speaker 3: I think when they have Milton Williams in there, and

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Speaker 3: when they had you know, Hawkins missed a couple of games,

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Speaker 3: like when they have their full compliment of defensive guys.

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Speaker 3: And we'll see about Gonzales because obviously that's big, but

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Speaker 3: that's kind of upset by the fact that Nico Collins

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Speaker 3: would probably it's probably just as likely to miss as Gonzalez,

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Speaker 3: you know, both of them. I mean, he played a

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Speaker 3: day later and he's in the concussion protocol, and you know,

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Speaker 3: so's Gonzales. But Gonzalez had at least like an extra

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Speaker 3: you know, twenty four hours to clear it. So, uh,

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Speaker 3: that's advantage Patriots still. And then you look at Stroud

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Speaker 3: career indoors sixty six percent, completion outdoors fifty nine point

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Speaker 3: seven percent, Uh, indoors eight point one yards an attempt outdoors

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Speaker 3: six point five five So touchdown rate four point seven

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Speaker 3: percent indoor, three point two percent outdoor. So this is

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Speaker 3: just a spot where you know, I know, the Patriots

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Speaker 3: defense has been a little bit pass funnel. Wish they've

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Speaker 3: been good against the run as well with Milton Williams back.

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Speaker 3: But I was impressed with what they did against the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they kind of took care of business, granted

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Speaker 3: given that weak offensive line, but the Texas offensive line

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Speaker 3: didn't look too hot against the Steelers, and the Andrews

258
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Speaker 3: couldn't snap the ball, so that, I mean, you can't

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Speaker 3: do that against like a team that could actually score.

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Speaker 3: The Texans were just I mean, they were just fumbling

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Speaker 3: and bumbling around on offense that whole game. But uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, they're playing a team that couldn't score on him.

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Speaker 3: I think the Patriots are gonna be able to put

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Speaker 3: more pressure on him, make a play from behind a

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Speaker 3: little bit more, and that that's just bad news for

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Speaker 3: strat His sacerd also goes up eight point four percent

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Speaker 3: outdoor six point eight percent indoors in his passing yard

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Speaker 3: is per game two fifty six indoors just two h

269
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Speaker 3: four per game outdoors. So just he's always a fad

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Speaker 3: for me in these kind of spots. So yeah, low

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Speaker 3: on Stroud again. All right, quarterback prop. So Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: has a tough match up. Let's go Josh Allen rush

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Speaker 3: attempts because this is always a hard projection. I ended

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Speaker 3: up betting the over and on him last week.

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Speaker 2: He cashed.

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Speaker 3: But it's like he has a very different rush design

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Speaker 3: rush rate in the postseason compared to the regular season.

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Speaker 3: So let's go over under seven and a half rush

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Speaker 3: attempts round.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go that's I think that's a good line.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go over. It's kind of interesting. Usually

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Speaker 1: we're doing this pod when nobody has projections out there,

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Speaker 1: but right now we have a full prop market market

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Speaker 1: for every game. Every player looks like some of the

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Speaker 1: books have it like over seven and a half is

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Speaker 1: heavily juiced, like minus one seventy. Some books have eight

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Speaker 1: and a half with like minus one thirty juice on

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Speaker 1: the under. So it looks like books are projecting about eight,

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Speaker 1: you know, exactly as is you know, most likely outcome.

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Speaker 1: But I think seven and a half is more of

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Speaker 1: a coin flip. But I'll go out the over here.

292
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Speaker 1: He did. He suffered like what three four different injuries

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Speaker 1: last week, and he kept running the ball. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're I think you're right. Just when it comes to

295
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Speaker 1: the playoffs, he's just going to put his body on

296
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Speaker 1: the line. And he has that one. It was like

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Speaker 1: that QB sneak that went for a twelve yard touchdown. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's ridiculous. So he's not gonna like stop using his

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Speaker 1: legs just because he picked up a couple injuries. I

300
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Speaker 1: think you know, he's he wants to win that Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: so he's gonna put his body online again this week.

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Speaker 3: So if like the last the last three postseasons, including

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Speaker 3: this one, so since Brady came over, Since Brady took

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Speaker 3: over as the offensive coordinator, he is averaging twenty percent

305
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 3: of the non kneel down designed runs this like for

306
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 3: the season this year, for example, he averaged ten points

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Speaker 3: about ten percent during the regular season, so like it

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Speaker 3: would essentially double. Uh, you know, based on what he's

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Speaker 3: done in the postseason over these past few years with

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Speaker 3: Brady and so scramble r it kind of stays the same.

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Speaker 3: It's not like he's scrambling more necessarily, but he's just

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Speaker 3: getting like twice as many design runs before he even

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Speaker 3: account for kneel downs. And then you know, I expect

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Speaker 3: Buffalo to win. He's unless they're like really blowing them out.

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Speaker 3: It's he's gonna take those Neil downs as well.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I have him.

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Speaker 3: I have him closer to nine, so that's where I

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Speaker 3: had him last week. I have him at eight point seven.

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Speaker 3: I should say this week eight point nine, last week

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Speaker 3: eight point seven. This week, so yeah, I'm I'm over

321
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Speaker 3: as well, so that I think that's that's.

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Speaker 2: The right side, all right? Running back?

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Speaker 3: Top five division around who we got.

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Speaker 1: Let's see, I got Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Kien Williams, RJ. Harvey,

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Speaker 1: and Witty Marks.

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00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:40,640
Speaker 3: I got McCaffrey, Harvey, Cook, Williams and Jack Charbonay.

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Speaker 2: Baby nice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I thought I was high on Harvey. You

329
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Speaker 1: had you got a number two. Yeah, all right too,

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Speaker 1: let's do it. Yeah, I'm I'm high on R. J.

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Speaker 1: Harvey because you know, he should be fresh coming off

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Speaker 1: that first round by you know, a week to rest up,

333
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 1: and this is a matchup against you know, Bill's defense

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00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 1: that's very much a run funnel one. So could see

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00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 1: Denver be a little bit more run heavy early on

336
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,119
Speaker 1: and take advantage, and then if they do end up

337
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,440
Speaker 1: in a trailing game script he'd be involved as a

338
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 1: pass catcher, so he's kind of game script proof and

339
00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 1: just based on the flow of this game, he could

340
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 1: see you know, a ton of volume. And you know,

341
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Speaker 1: it sounds like the earliest JK. Dobbins may return is

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Speaker 1: a super Bowl if they make it. So I think

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Speaker 1: the plan is to just lean on Harvey pretty hard

344
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 1: here in the playoffs. You know, you might see McLaughlin

345
00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,840
Speaker 1: and Bidet mixing still, but I think, you know, Peyton

346
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 1: might be a little bit more comfortable having Harvey be

347
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,159
Speaker 1: more of a workhorse back here. But either way, this

348
00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 1: is just a good spot for Harvey and he's a

349
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: type of player where I'm only projecting him for about

350
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,200
Speaker 1: fifteen touches or so, where he could do a ton

351
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 1: of damage in there, but it's within reason. He could

352
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,440
Speaker 1: get twenty plus here if Sean Payton wants to unleash him.

353
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 1: But yeah, either way, I think R. G. Harvey is

354
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Speaker 1: in a good spot because he's he's pretty much gamescript proof.

355
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Speaker 1: I haven't really figured out which way I'm leaning on this.

356
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 1: I'm thinking, you know, the Bills win this game. I'm

357
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 1: playing with the lead. But again, I think early on

358
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: they're going to want to establish the run with Harvey

359
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 1: against his Bills defense.

360
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, him for sixteen point eight touches, and that's just yeah,

361
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,200
Speaker 3: giving him his normal like workloads since he took over

362
00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 3: that number one back, which is about like sixty five

363
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:30,199
Speaker 3: percent of the non quarterback design carries and then about

364
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 3: about about fifty percent route participation.

365
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's he's popping.

366
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 3: I think Bede will still play third downs, that's like,

367
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 3: but he's not really going to carry the ball much

368
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: and he's not gonna do much in the passing game either.

369
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 3: He's just gonna be out there about twenty percent of

370
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,160
Speaker 3: the time whatever. Haven't made third downs, So it's really like, yeah,

371
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 3: if McLachlin doesn't play much.

372
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,880
Speaker 2: You're talking about seventy five.

373
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Speaker 3: Eighty percent of the non h you know, non quarterback

374
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,160
Speaker 3: runs for Harvey and the same amount of the pass now.

375
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 3: So yeah, he's got massive upside. And the reason I

376
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 3: have him Overcook is just because number one Cook still

377
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 3: didn't play a ton in the pass game even with

378
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 3: Ty Johnson out last week, and because Allen runs more

379
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. Allen also scores a lot more touchdowns

380
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,919
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, which cuts into Cook a little bit,

381
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 3: and so he's kind of reliant on those those longer runs.

382
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,359
Speaker 3: But I am I'm high on Kyron Williams and Blake

383
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,879
Speaker 3: KORBM in this spot. I really like the Rams matchup

384
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 3: on the ground because the Bears lost linebacker TJ. Edwards

385
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 3: to a pretty bad ankle injury. He's gonna be out

386
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 3: for the remainder of the postseason. They played eleven games

387
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 3: with Edwards this year. In a run game, their run

388
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 3: defense was half decent. You know, they're known for having

389
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,679
Speaker 3: a bad run but in the eleven games he played,

390
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,479
Speaker 3: they only gave up four point five yards per carry

391
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 3: and a two point seven percent touchdown rate around league average,

392
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 3: you know, not too bad, but in the seven games

393
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 3: that he missed five point seven yards per carry and

394
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 3: a three point eight percent touchdown rate, So that is

395
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 3: it's hideous one hundred and forty eight yards per game

396
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 3: in those seven games as well.

397
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 2: So with Stafford a.

398
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 3: Little bit banged up outdoors on the road, this could

399
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,959
Speaker 3: be a game where McVay leans into the Runners as

400
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 3: much as he can. You know, his defense can still

401
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 3: put him in a tough spot, but I do think

402
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 3: that Kyrone and Korn will be very efficient here with

403
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 3: the with the Bears has given up almost six yards

404
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 3: of carry without.

405
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: Edwards, I mean, that's just brutal. Who are you lo on?

406
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm low on Trevon Henderson. I mean, just first off,

407
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 1: this is a brutal matchup against the Texans. But his

408
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 1: usage has been kind of trending down a bit, mainly

409
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,160
Speaker 1: because you know, Ramandre has been playing well these past

410
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: couple of games, so he's starting to see you know,

411
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: more early down work he had. Andre had ten carries

412
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 1: for fifty three yards, Henderson just nine for twenty seven

413
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 1: in that opening round. But you know, Ramondre continues to

414
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 1: dominate in the passing down work, so you know he

415
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 1: had a fifty eight percent routes run rate, Henderson just

416
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 1: a twenty percent routes run rate. So I'm only projecting

417
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 1: Henderson for like, you know, ten to twelve touches against

418
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,479
Speaker 1: the top two defense. So this is closer to you know,

419
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: his floor when it comes to his range of outcomes.

420
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 1: And you know, typically the Patriots are playing with the

421
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 1: lead and he can get you know, more rush attempts.

422
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: But this is a game where you know they could

423
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 1: end up in a rare trailing game script and it's

424
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: been Remandre who's been you know, more of the pass

425
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: catching back. So I have, Yeah, I have Mare ranked

426
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,920
Speaker 1: RB nine and Henderson just below them RB ten.

427
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. Same, it's there wasn't a point of each other.

428
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, I agree, it's hard to project the carries

429
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 3: because if you go like a larger sample, like Henderson

430
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 3: would have a slight edge, but like the wait for recency,

431
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 3: you would probably give more carries to Stevenson at this point.

432
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 2: So it's kind of a toss up baron.

433
00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 3: Yes, Stevenson plays a lot more in the past game,

434
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 3: regardless of what's going on. I am low on Woody Marks, uh,

435
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 3: And that's just because again New England, you know, with

436
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 3: Milton Williams, they're allow just eighty three rushing yards a

437
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 3: game and three point eight yards per carry with a

438
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: one point four percent touchdown rate. In the games he missed,

439
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 3: missed about five games came back Week eighteen, but in

440
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 3: the five games he missed one hundred and forty seven

441
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 3: yards per game, five yards per carry, and a four

442
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 3: point seven percent touchdown rate, more than triple. So now

443
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 3: you're talking about a guy who averages under four yards

444
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 3: to carry, who's going to be in probably more of

445
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 3: a trailing game script than he's been in. You know,

446
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,479
Speaker 3: then Houston's been in considering they've won what like, they

447
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 3: won almost all their games to close out the year,

448
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: and then they were leading most of the time against

449
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh as well, So this could be you know, he's

450
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 3: he had nineteen carries to Chubs ten about if you

451
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 3: look at the run snaps, about twenty two or twenty

452
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 3: three to ten in favor of him over Chubb.

453
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 2: A Goombwaw he didn't play, but at Goomblewaw he.

454
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,239
Speaker 3: Could get some snaps if the Texans are trailing, you know,

455
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 3: just as that passing down, hurry up whatever third down back.

456
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 3: So It's gonna be hard for Marx to get enough carries,

457
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 3: I think, because he usually gets about two thirds of

458
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,679
Speaker 3: the non quarterback design runs. It's gonna be hard to

459
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 3: get enough carries I think in this spot. And then

460
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 3: the efficiency is in question as well, because New England

461
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 3: has been a pass funnel. They've been really good against

462
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: the run most of the year, especially with Williams in there.

463
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, low on Woody Marx this week, what're we

464
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 3: doing for the problem?

465
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 1: Let's go with Travon Henderson total scrimmage arts of rushing

466
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: and receiving. Let's go with fifty three and a half.

467
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: Let's see I got forty two rush and seventeen. Yeah,

468
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 2: I'll go. I'll go over.

469
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 3: I think the thing with it like the one thing

470
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 3: with like I think if New England needs it, like

471
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: which they might against this defense, they might go with

472
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 3: like the speedier guy.

473
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 2: Like against the Chargers.

474
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: They never really needed explosiveness, like they just they just

475
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 3: needed to kind of like hold onto the ball and

476
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: hold onto the leads so I could see trade. I

477
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 3: can see trade me and popping either popping.

478
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: If you need to hold on to the ball, why

479
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: would you give it?

480
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: That is true?

481
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: What I'm saying in this game, you might take more risks, like, oh,

482
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 3: you're going a good defense. Yeah, so yeah, I'm gonna

483
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 3: go I'm gonna go over that. That's a good line.

484
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 3: It's I gues said, it's really hard to project them

485
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 3: because the more you wait for recency, the more you

486
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 3: give Remandre. So I'm trying not to go too crazy

487
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: with the small sample size. So that still got Henderson

488
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 3: at around fifty nine average, So I think, yeah, over

489
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 3: would you say fifty.

490
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: And a half three and a half.

491
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good line.

492
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wasn't sure what I wanted to do there. Again,

493
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 1: it's he's just kind of a tricky projection right now

494
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 1: because it's not like, uh, you know, Mandre messed that

495
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: three game stretch where Henderson was an number three back

496
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: in Fantasy, so we saw his upside if he has

497
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:08,360
Speaker 1: the full backfield to himself. But even when Ramandre returned,

498
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: Rabel was sticking with Henderson. It's just been kind of

499
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: like a hot hand situation where you know, Mandre the

500
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: last couple of games, he's been so good that he's

501
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: been eating into it. But like you said, you know,

502
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 1: Trey could bust a run early on and they just

503
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 1: give him, you know, fifteen carries, so he has a

504
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: wide range of outcomes. Again, I'm a little bit worried

505
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: about his receiving usage, but certainly his rushing upsides there

506
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 1: if he does, you know, break a couple explosive runs.

507
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,199
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is brutal defense, so it's just a

508
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: tougher matchup. So yeah, I think the prop for him

509
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 1: is fifty one and a half. Would you actually bet

510
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 1: that or do you think it's just kind of a

511
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: wide range of outcomes you'll just stay away.

512
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: I got to look a little more into it, but

513
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 3: I might bet it, or I might look at the

514
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 3: receiving because the one thing I'm thinking about is, Okay,

515
00:25:55,560 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: Houston plays a lot of man coverage, right, what do

516
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,400
Speaker 3: you want here, like Hunter Henry against the safety?

517
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: I mean you can't. I can't really do that. Is

518
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 2: like he's not gonna win as much.

519
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 3: So it's like, but Henderson against those linebackers, that's a

520
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,959
Speaker 3: matchup that you would win. So I could see him

521
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 3: being like used more in the receiving game than he

522
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: has been in others because like the Chargers just like

523
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 3: a zone defense that's like you can't really get the matchup,

524
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 3: dictate the matchup as much. So maybe that's why Remondery

525
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 3: played more. But like in this one, it's like youth

526
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 3: is gonna man up and they would win a lot

527
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 3: of their matchups.

528
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's eight and a half. I mean, yeah,

529
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 1: I would go I would probably that well over he's

530
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: either getting zero or thirty plus, right, yeah, yeah, Like,

531
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 1: I don't know if you'd really want to bet on

532
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 1: the media either, just kind of take twenty plus yards

533
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 1: at that point. What was that receiving yards? Probably was

534
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 1: etn in the playoffs. It was stuck. He was on

535
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: it and oh it was like.

536
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: Fourteen and a half.

537
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 3: It's fourteen, seventeen and a half and fourteen and a half,

538
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 3: and it like stucky ended getting it at the right

539
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 3: number in it.

540
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was like fifteen or something like that. Yeah,

541
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: something something silly.

542
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a proper I could see going up

543
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 1: a couple of yards by the end of the week.

544
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: And and a half does seem low, even though I'm you know,

545
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: lower on his upside. But this is one of those

546
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 1: games we're all all it's going to take is one

547
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: catch for him to potentially, you know, go twenty plus.

548
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 2: Oh wow, Tom Won stepped down. I didn't see that.

549
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, as we got one Jesus.

550
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: He stepped down, so it wasn't fired. And then he's

551
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: saying he he would prefer to coach in a warm

552
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: weather environment.

553
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 2: What that's okay? That sounds people are weird.

554
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: Telling him that it's eighty degrees in camcuon right now.

555
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 1: So that's probably where he.

556
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 2: Oh man man.

557
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 1: I mean the whole AFC North is uh camp.

558
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was I mean, who knew like two weeks

559
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: in a row just it was in a long tenured

560
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 3: AFC North coach. But yeah, well did not. Yeah, I

561
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 3: didn't see that before we jumped on. It looks like

562
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 3: fifty four minutes ago. Yeah, yeah, before that recent.

563
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, but yeah, I would, I would.

564
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 3: I would definitely take I think I would be on

565
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 3: that over receiving definitely.

566
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: Yeah.

567
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 3: And I'm going over in the fifty three and a

568
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 3: half that you threw out, all right, receiver top five?

569
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 2: Who we got?

570
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 1: I got JSN, Hookah, Davante Diggs, and Courtland Sutton.

571
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 2: Yep, I got.

572
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 3: Pookah, JSN, Davante, Courtland Sutton and then Digs.

573
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: Who are you high on?

574
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: I am high on Jayden Higgins because you know, Nico

575
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 1: had that really bad hit to the head last night,

576
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 1: went to the concussion protocol or you know, went to

577
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 1: the tent. He's in the concussion protocol. So it's gonna

578
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: be a race to get cleared in time because they

579
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: you know, they played last night on Monday, so that's

580
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: one last day to get cleared in time, you know,

581
00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: for Sunday. And I think he had one recently, right,

582
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: I think it was like around Halloween. I want to say,

583
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 1: like October he had one. Yeah, I think he missed

584
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: he had right, Yeah. Yeah, So that's the second one

585
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: this season, So that might you know, delay him getting cleared.

586
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: Who knows. But if he's out again, and the prop

587
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: market looks like it's kind of assuming he's out because

588
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: they're they're offering Higgins at like forty and a half,

589
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: which is where I have him with Nico. Yeah, yeah,

590
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: I have him tough, Yeah, I have him doubtful. So yeah,

591
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: so Higgins is going to get a big boose. My

592
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: comp for him heading in the season was like Nico

593
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: Collins himself, t Higgins that kind of guy, and he's

594
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: he's really come on the second half of the season.

595
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: So I think he is ready to kind of step

596
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: up in the likely event that Nico's out this week.

597
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: So and you know, Christian goan Zalez is also in

598
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: the protocol, so there's a chance he's out. So higgins

599
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: stock has gone way up, and obviously Christian Kirk has

600
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: as well. When do you go for one hundred and

601
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: forty four yards last night?

602
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 2: That was crazy?

603
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: So the Cats are the bag on him. So yeah,

604
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: his props close to fifty, which I wouldn't touch that,

605
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: but yeah, Kirk and Higgins should see an uptick and

606
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: just overall usage this week. And again if if Gonzalez

607
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: is also ruled out this week, you know that'll only

608
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: improved the matchup for the passing game.

609
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's gonna it's probably one of those two

610
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 3: guys probably gonna pop up because it's probably not gonna

611
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 3: be Hutchinson, although who knows it could be Hutchinson, But yeah,

612
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: I have Higgin's wide receiver eight.

613
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: Oh no, why receiver seven? So yeah, he got a

614
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: big bump up.

615
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: Uh.

616
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 2: I'm high on Luther Burden. Uh. I love the matchup

617
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: for him.

618
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 3: Rams play a ton of zn't coverage, Burden averaging three

619
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 3: yards over three yards per route against zone coverage. Under

620
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: two it's man coverage, So you would think you would

621
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 3: be a little different, But you know that that's just

622
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: kind of how it's shaking out this year. And you know,

623
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 3: Burden was kind of the guy who was quiet in

624
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: that in that last matchup. You know, DJ Moore came

625
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 3: through with the touchdown for me, but Burden really didn't

626
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: do much. I think this is a this is a

627
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: game where he could have a much different type of game.

628
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: You know that more loved When Dunes they being back,

629
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: I think that just helps Burden. You know, you can't

630
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 3: really double him over some of those guys at this point,

631
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 3: I don't think anyway.

632
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: And with a lot of zones and you're.

633
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 3: Not gonna see a lot of doubles anyway, So are

634
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 3: they gonna kind of cloud him. He's gonna play in

635
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 3: a slot of ton I don't think they're gonna be

636
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 3: able to do much. So I think he's gonna be

637
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 3: the guy that kind of is able to run free,

638
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 3: especially after loved One had that monster game, because I

639
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: think if there's an over the middle kind of guy

640
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 3: that they're gonna look at, it's gonna have to be

641
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 3: loveling now, so I love Burden.

642
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 2: He's up to my wide receiver six. He's still my top.

643
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 3: Ranked Bears fantasy receive You were even with more catching

644
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 3: another TV last week?

645
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 2: Who are you low on at receiver?

646
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 1: Low on Kishon Booty unfortunately, but you know he's already

647
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: you know, kind of a lower target rate wide receiver.

648
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: You know, he's seen a target on just you know,

649
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: twelve and a half percent of his routes on the season.

650
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: But kind of as we expected, Diggs playing time was

651
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: way up eighty five percent, and Pop Douglas was up

652
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 1: as well, fifty three percent. And unfortunately it didn't result

653
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: in a touchdown or many catches for my props. But

654
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: you know, both both of those players seeing more playing

655
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 1: time could chip away Booty's already low target rate again

656
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: having digs out there so much, you know, he's the

657
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 1: highest target guy. So that's that's just going to chip

658
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 1: into everybody's target share. But this is just you know,

659
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: a brutal matchup against the Texans, So this is a

660
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: spot we could see may you know, uses legs even

661
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: more when he's under pressure, or dump it off to

662
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: Stevenson or Henderson like we were saying earlier then you know,

663
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: just throwing a sideline pass to Booty when he's covered

664
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: by Derek Stingley. So I think just his chances of

665
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: getting you know, downfield targets are lower here, and actually

666
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: pulling them in is lower here. So I just think

667
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: he's more likely to have a floor game, and he's

668
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 1: he's the kind of guy has a wide range of outcomes,

669
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: could still pop off for one catch for you know,

670
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 1: a sixty yard touchdown, But in this spot, in this matchup,

671
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: you know, I'm projecting him much much closer to his floor.

672
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think last week was a good

673
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 2: spot for him.

674
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 3: This week's a lot a lot tougher, just a lot

675
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,719
Speaker 3: tougher of a matchup going against this textan defense with

676
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 3: those corners.

677
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 2: All right, I.

678
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 3: Am low on Juwan Jennings, So I know Kiddle's out,

679
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 3: so I think, you know, people will probably look and

680
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: Piersall could be up. So I have you know, pearsall

681
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 3: projected like not full strength, but and obviously Kiddle out.

682
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: But either way, Jennings is going to not be among

683
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 3: my top you know, five or six receivers in this matchup.

684
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: He's kind of been there with those last few games

685
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 3: with Perty over the stretch of the season. But if

686
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 3: you look at the two games he's played against Seattle,

687
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 3: just the fifty one yards and six catches on eleven targets,

688
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 3: no touchdowns. And Seattle is number one in DVOA against

689
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 3: number one receivers and when their secondary hasn't even been

690
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 3: healthy the entire year. So in their secondary has been healthy,

691
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 3: they've been even better. They just really can shut down

692
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 3: whoever they want. And we kind of saw that in

693
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 3: that in that last matchup in Week eighteen where Jennings

694
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 3: really didn't do much of anything. He had only thirty

695
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 3: five yards on six targets. So yeah, expecting another kind

696
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 3: of slow game for Jennings. I think Kittle being in

697
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 3: the lineup would I actually help Jennings.

698
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: A little more just because you have to devote more

699
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 2: coverage to him.

700
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 3: But now it's like, even with Pierce all there, Jennings

701
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: is still that number one option. You're still gonna kind

702
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 3: of focus on him. So yeah, low on Jennings coming

703
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 3: off too straight duds in these last two weeks. All Right,

704
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 3: why receiver prop Let's go with Koosha Kira versus Kean Coleman,

705
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 3: Brandon Cook's combined receiving yard make Shakir half yard favorite.

706
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: So Cooks and Coleman, yeah, we should both play. It

707
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:27,959
Speaker 3: should both be I mean, Cooks will definitely be active,

708
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 3: but Coleman should be active as well.

709
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: But Denver cornerbacks, I have it pretty close. I'm gonna

710
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 1: go with the Coleman Cooks combined. Just need one of

711
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 1: those guys to haul in a long pass. But that's

712
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 1: that's a very good prop. I did see that Curtis

713
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: Samuel might return, so they have one guy to just take,

714
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: you know, one catch away from the collective group. But yeah,

715
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: Gabe Davis is out, so you know, Coleman should see

716
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: you know, forty five fifty rut and Brandon Cooks has

717
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: actually looked surprisingly good with the bills, So yeah, I'll

718
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: take them and Shakier, you know, I mean, could end

719
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: up catching six passes and only have thirty yards. He's

720
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,479
Speaker 1: that kind of guy. He just needs to break couple

721
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: of tackles. So I'd say that's a very good prop.

722
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: But I'll take the upside of you know, Coleman and

723
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 1: Cooks combined.

724
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Coleman might be the X factor because Shakir has

725
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 3: been a lot better against zone. Denver plays a lot

726
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 3: of man, so I don't expect a massive game like

727
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 3: he had last week. And then Cooks has been horrible

728
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 3: against man, so he's popped off against like two kind

729
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: of zone heavy defense is the last two last two games.

730
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 2: So it's like Coleman might actually be the one.

731
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 3: Colman might actually weed all three of these guys, or

732
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 3: I mean he has a shot now with gave Davis out.

733
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's it's really tough because you know, Shakira

734
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 3: coming off that high volume game, you would think like, Okay,

735
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 3: it's definitely he's gonna be that focal point. But yeah

736
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 3: he's against man coverage not not the same for him,

737
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 3: but nor is it for cook So yeah, I'm just

738
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,399
Speaker 3: curious how you work those guys tight end top five,

739
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 3: who we.

740
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: Got, uh Colson Loveland by a mile. Then I have Hunter,

741
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 1: Henry Dalton Schultz, Jake Tanjas and A. J. Barner.

742
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: I actually have shows number one.

743
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, because like yeah, it's uh out yeah, yeah, yeah,

744
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 4: I mean because they're gonna have to throw. It's just

745
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 4: uh but yeah, Loveland has a little bit more competition

746
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 4: I think with you know, with you know, like with

747
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 4: all three of those guys, all three receivers out you

748
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 4: but yeah, Schultz Loveland, Hunter, Henry Dalton Kincaid, and Jake

749
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 4: Tanjas nice, who are you high on?

750
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: I guess I'm high on Colson Loveland? Then, who's just

751
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:52,280
Speaker 1: absolutely on fire to close the season six catches ninety

752
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: four yards, touchdown, ten catches ninety one yards and a touchdown,

753
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: and then last week eight catches for one hundred and

754
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: thirty seven yards. I mean my comp for him was

755
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 1: prime Jimmy Graham, which is pretty good now, but he's

756
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: also just reminding me of prime Travis Kelce, Like I

757
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: think he's just going to be an elite tight end

758
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 1: in fantasy for years to come now. But I remember

759
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year, we were talking about

760
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 1: just you know, Tyler Warren had the better chance and

761
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 1: having you know, a solid rookie season because he was

762
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: the clear, you know, number one tight end for the Colts,

763
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: whereas Leveland had Cole Comett. We weren't sure how that

764
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 1: was going to pan out. And they have, you know,

765
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: three solid receivers guests compete with, so, uh, you know,

766
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: at the end of the season, he's really just dominated. Uh,

767
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: last week, I think it was like a ninety six

768
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 1: percent routes run rate.

769
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, well I think he had one of those

770
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 3: was yeah yeah, because he had a he had like

771
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 3: a past attempt, like not a past attempt. It was

772
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 3: rapped back where he was gonna. He was thrown at

773
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 3: the end of running, which I guess was a scramble.

774
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 2: I would. I guess that I would.

775
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: He's really at all basically but ninety one routes run rate,

776
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: which is the heihst of the season. It's it's been

777
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: trending up for four straight games. So he's clearly you know,

778
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: seeing Kate Aughton levels of playing time. But now he's

779
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: commanding like a forty five fifty target rate. So it's

780
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: just insane. So, I mean, the breakouts here, so just

781
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 1: got to roll with him in the playoffs. I'm sure

782
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 1: the prop market has already caught on. But just next season,

783
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 1: I'm expecting he'll be, you know, ranked as a top

784
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: three tight end probably easily. But yeah, just it's been

785
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 1: amazing to see just at the end of the season,

786
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 1: you know, his breakout heading in next year. And this

787
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 1: is all to say Caleb Williams has you know, one

788
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: of the best tight ends to throw to one of

789
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: the better younger receivers and Luther Burden a throw too,

790
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 1: So this is all just great news for you know,

791
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 1: Caleb's long term value as well.

792
00:39:58,320 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

793
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 3: Absolutely, Well, well, it would look like a beast out

794
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 3: there against Green Bay.

795
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 2: I'm high on Dalton Schultz.

796
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 3: Uh, it's just a matter of you know, yeah, I mean,

797
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 3: obviously people are gonna be on Higgins and probably Kirk,

798
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 3: but against New England, I think, you know, those guys

799
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:17,439
Speaker 3: are those guys obviously.

800
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 2: Are going to get the attention of the Patriots a

801
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 2: little bit too.

802
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 3: So you know, Schultz has been a guy, just a

803
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 3: high volume guy all year, especially anytime like guys are

804
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 3: out second half of the year, which Stroud, he has

805
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,760
Speaker 3: been really good. So uh, you know, going up against

806
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 3: this Patriot defense, who gives up the.

807
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: Let's see what was it?

808
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're the ninth most schedule adjustice targets to tight ends.

809
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 3: I think New England I think Schultz will kind of

810
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 3: get back to it here. He didn't really didn't really

811
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 3: do much in that in that last spot, but always

812
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 3: like kind of guys coming off quiet game with a

813
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: week to prepare, I think Schultz will be back and

814
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 3: because he's not gonna block, that's for sure.

815
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 2: He's not gonna use it as a blocker. So yeah,

816
00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: he's uh.

817
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 3: And we've seen him hit like a ninety percent routes

818
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 3: run rate in certain games, So I wonder if Nico's

819
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 3: out that ticks up. His usual is around eighty percent

820
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 3: for the season, but we've seen him take his high

821
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 3: as like ninety percent, especially over the second half of

822
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 3: the year. So like Schultz this week against New England,

823
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 3: who are you low on?

824
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 1: I'm low on aj Barner because we saw, you know,

825
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 1: his routes run rate really shot up for a couple

826
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: of games after Elijah Royo went down back in Week fourteen.

827
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: He ran a seventy seven percent routes run rate, then

828
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 1: eighty six percent, and you know he's the main ball

829
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: carrier in their tush push, so I was super high

830
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: on him at that time. But you know, we've seen

831
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 1: him average now a sixty percent routes run rate over

832
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 1: the last two games where we saw Eric Sobert eating

833
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: into his playing time, and you know, Elijah Royo also

834
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 1: returned to practice. So either way, it seems like the

835
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,240
Speaker 1: plan is to just have Barner out there for about

836
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 1: sixty percent Darnold's dropbacks, and you know, he's still the

837
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: ball carrier in the tush push, so you know, if

838
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: they do get down to the one yard line, maybe

839
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: he gets a rushing score. So he still has that

840
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 1: sneaky path to upside. But just in terms of his

841
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:17,439
Speaker 1: receiving usage, it's been very concerning to see that drop

842
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: off with you know, Eric Sobert of all people taking

843
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 1: away snaps in the past game. But you know, if

844
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 1: Royo's back, that's gonna make it even murkier. So because

845
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 1: of that, I'm a little bit lower on Barner this week.

846
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's that's that is interesting that he get

847
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: back down.

848
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,359
Speaker 2: I saw that. I don't know why I would think.

849
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 3: I think he would just play Barner more than sober

850
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 3: But I mean soberd is kind of more of like

851
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 3: a catch first, I guess tight end. But yeah, it

852
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 3: is an odd, odd way to do it. But I mean,

853
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: can'tknock Seattle. It's been working for Yeah, they're doing something.

854
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:58,359
Speaker 3: Last game wasn't great. Yeah, Uh, I am low on.

855
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 2: Evan Ingram.

856
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 3: Evan Ingram, I mean I've been longing them all year.

857
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 3: But now he's got a match up against Buffalo. Buffalo

858
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 3: one of the best teams in the league at defending

859
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 3: the tight end position. They ranked eighth in DVOA against

860
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,280
Speaker 3: tight ends in terms of schedule adjusted yardage per FTN.

861
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 3: They're giving up the fewest schedule adjust the yards per

862
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 3: game to tight ends at thirty points six. And Ingram's

863
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: route participation rate has been trending down in favor of

864
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:36,320
Speaker 3: Adam Trautman. So last four games he's been at about

865
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: forty six percent route participation season averages fifty five, and

866
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 3: then Troutman's been up around forty percent, So you know,

867
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 3: maybe that evens back out, but even so, I mean

868
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 3: fifty five percent average for the season, that's not enough

869
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 3: routes to really do anything and not really a big

870
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 3: red zone guy tough matchups.

871
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 2: So yeah, Ingram has gotten down on at tight end.

872
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 2: What are we doing for the problem?

873
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 1: Well, since you're on Schultz, let's go with Hunter Henry

874
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: versus Dalton Schultz sort of a Spider Man pointing out

875
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: Spider Man meme here, because I have him pretty close.

876
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 1: I haven't like projected the same receiving yards, So I

877
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 1: think I know you're going with this, but I'll give

878
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: you Henry verus Schultz receiving yards straight up? Where are

879
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 1: you taking Schultz?

880
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 3: I have Schultz pretty significantly ahead after adjusted for Nico.

881
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 3: So if Nico, for some reason, plays, then I'd have

882
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 3: it probably, ye, like.

883
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: If Nico's active, the bets off. So this is assuming

884
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: n goes out.

885
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, yeah, well then yeah Schultz, I have Shults.

886
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 3: I have Shelts at fifty four and Henry at forty.

887
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 1: Well, I don't know what do you have?

888
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 2: What do you have? You have at what.

889
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm right, forty three? Yeah, I have So I'm a

890
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: little bit lower than you on Schultz, but I get it.

891
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 1: I had Remember it was week eighteen. Who the Texans

892
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 1: playing that week? Either they made Nico a healthy scratch

893
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 1: for some reason.

894
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 2: I had Schultz Colts Colts.

895
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the Colts. Yeah, Jeff Driscoll, Yeah, so I

896
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 1: had Nico or I had Schultz under four and a half.

897
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, jefris Yeah, it's like a whole different team, isn't, Jeff?

898
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 2: Wasn't Jef Driscoll?

899
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 1: That's my call.

900
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 2: I called it.

901
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 3: Jeff Driscoll, Oh okay, yeah, he's he's.

902
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: Fun to watch, Like that's kind of my point. He

903
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 1: has fun to watch, But I call him Jeff driscoll.

904
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: So I had Schultz under four and a half catches

905
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: and then I see Nico rolled out, so I just

906
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: assume that that's toast. But Schultz had you know, four

907
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: catches in the first half, and then they had the

908
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 1: jagguars were blowing out the Titans or whoever, so then

909
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: they benched Schultz to you know, give him rest. But

910
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 1: Schultz was going off without Nico in that first half,

911
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 1: so I agree, like without Nico, I think they do

912
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 1: lean on Schultz more here. So so yeah, I mean,

913
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: I have both these guys right around forty two yards,

914
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 1: but they're starting to float props for Schultz right now

915
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 1: at thirty seven and a half yards, so you might

916
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 1: want to take that, yeah, early, because again, the market

917
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 1: is kind of projecting these guys as if Nico's out.

918
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,320
Speaker 1: I mean, Xader Hutchinson's prop is thirty six and a half,

919
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 1: which I think is too high even with Nico out.

920
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 1: So maybe you'll be on Schultz over and I'll be

921
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 1: on Hutchinson's under. But I think Hutchinson's under is you know,

922
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: a smash player right now, because imagine if Nico does

923
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,879
Speaker 1: end up suiting up and You're sitting there with hutch

924
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 1: thirty six and a half under. But I digress. All

925
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 1: these props are kind of assuming Nico's out and they

926
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 1: still have Schultz under you know, forty yards for his opener.

927
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Scholtz at fifty four.

928
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: What Hagen's wait, why would would Schultz be the same

929
00:46:58,080 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 1: as Hutchinson?

930
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 2: What what? What do you mean? Fifty four?

931
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 1: Schultz thirty seven and a half and Hutchinson is thirty

932
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 1: six and a half.

933
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Schultz fifty four, hutcheson thirty one.

934
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:13,720
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying, Like there should be double digits

935
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: of yards between those two guys.

936
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'll be.

937
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,839
Speaker 3: Making some best off this podcast. So yeah, I mean

938
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 3: I guess those are just it's just initial. I mean,

939
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 3: you could project Hutchinson for like a ninety five percent

940
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 3: route rate like that he had eighteen, I mean, but

941
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 3: and it's still I don't think he would deserve that prop.

942
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 2: But I digress. Yeah, that's that's yeah.

943
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 1: Whoever was playing ninety per week eighteen, they probably didn't

944
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 1: consider a key player. So yeah, because the last.

945
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 3: Week it was like him, Kirk had equal and then

946
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 3: Higgins was lower. But that's but you know that's because

947
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 3: they didn't have many as many, like three receiver sets.

948
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 3: So if if Higgins gets Nicos stuff, it was like

949
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 3: Kirk played so well that I Kirk could be the

950
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: number two receiver even on the out. He's played outside

951
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 3: receiver before. So yeah, that's yeah, I'm protecting hutcheson around

952
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 3: like eighty percent.

953
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 2: What about you?

954
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. Eighty percent Noel, you know,

955
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: fifteen percent haven't figured out what they're doing with him.

956
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 1: You can see someone like Justin Watson active this time.

957
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: Oh God, Barrier.

958
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 2: It would have to be burials pretty much, yeah, he would.

959
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 1: He would be more of a Kirk Noel group.

960
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just I'm just doing Noel his season long,

961
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 3: like thirty percent and burials five because when it hasn't

962
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 3: been like a Noel guy, they've the number five guy

963
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 3: has been even.

964
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, more more too tight end sets. Get Stove out

965
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 1: there with Schultz, Yeah, could do that. But yeah, Hutchinson,

966
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 1: eighty to eighty five percent sounds about right with a

967
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: low target, right, yeah, but yeah, seems a bit high

968
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 1: at least initially.

969
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, way high. All right, that's gonna do

970
00:48:59,960 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 3: it for our NFL Divisional Round player Projections episode here

971
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,480
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972
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,280
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973
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,479
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974
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,640
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00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,120
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976
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,560
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977
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:20,000
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979
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