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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 1: Believe it or not, but it's already the week of

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Speaker 1: the fourth of July. So que the Toby Keith, throw

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Speaker 1: those hot dogs on the grill and get some baseball

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Speaker 1: on the tube. And yes, we're back before the holiday

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Speaker 1: to revisit the MLB futures betting markets. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Seth Wilcock, and I'm joined by quite the cast of

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Speaker 1: characters today, including a man who believes red, white and blue.

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Speaker 1: He's the host of Leading Off. He's Chris Welsh. Pal,

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Speaker 1: how you doing? Are you looking forward to the holiday weekend?

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Speaker 2: We're doing SOT. I got birthdays. I got a daughter

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Speaker 2: and a wife that both share the same birthday on

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Speaker 2: July fifth, so we do fourth of July. For me

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Speaker 2: is not just about America, but it's about family literally

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Speaker 2: because my daughter has taken over that day. But I'm

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Speaker 2: looking forward to it, and I'm looking forward to baseball

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Speaker 2: being center stage for a little bit because that is

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Speaker 2: what you all got and you're all gonna deal with

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Speaker 2: it whether you like it or not. It's that in me.

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Speaker 1: We also have back with a man who I believe

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Speaker 1: already celebrated his into Penance day up North Canadian Joe Rico, Joe,

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Speaker 1: did I get that right? Canaday already in the bag

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Speaker 1: for you?

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Speaker 3: By the time people are hearing this, it likely will be,

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Speaker 3: but it's actually at the time recording it is the

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Speaker 3: first of July. Is Canadaday today, So oh Canada Day.

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Speaker 3: To all the Canadians who are listening. It's odd being

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Speaker 3: a Canadian who works for American companies because I'm working today,

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Speaker 3: but I'll get the long weekend like you guys will,

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Speaker 3: so it's hard to really complain all that much.

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Speaker 1: There you go, hard working Canadian Joe Rico. We appreciate

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Speaker 1: you being back with us today on the program. It

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Speaker 1: looks like this will revisit the following betting markets MVP

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Speaker 1: CY Young season win totals and to make the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: some division winners, World Series winners, and our favorite long

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Speaker 1: shot futures as well, and we'll also be discussing the

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Speaker 1: looming MLB trade deadline how it could affect these markets

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Speaker 1: coming up. Before we get going. First, one to shout

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Speaker 1: out everyone who's joining us, either on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel or the audio feed. The easiest way to

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Speaker 1: support us is to always give this video a thumbs

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Speaker 1: up if you enjoy this type of content. Also make

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Speaker 1: sure you subscribe me to the channel if you're new.

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Speaker 1: And while you're here, let us know down in the

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Speaker 1: comments below your favorite MLB futures that we should be

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Speaker 1: jumping on right now, and maybe even your favorite hot

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Speaker 1: dog condiments. I'm usually like a cheese dog with ketchup

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Speaker 1: and onion kind of guy, but I also kind of

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Speaker 1: roll with the sour kraw action a little bit here

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Speaker 1: and there. What about you.

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Speaker 2: Welsh hardcore pass on the sour craws.

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Speaker 1: So you know, nothing is more American to me than chips.

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Speaker 2: It's all. It's chips. Give me Doritos, give me ruffles,

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Speaker 2: just like let me consume the chips. Please on your

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Speaker 2: hot dog? Oh on hot dog? I thought were just

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Speaker 2: talking about you know what. Also, yes, I thought you

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Speaker 2: said food in general on a hot dog. Very anti Chicago.

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Speaker 2: It's all catch up. But you know what, I might

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Speaker 2: throw a couple chips on there, a couple of Doritos

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Speaker 2: in there, don't try.

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Speaker 1: I honestly want to try the Chicago dog from Chicago.

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Speaker 1: I haven't done it yet. I think having that and

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Speaker 1: Wrigley would be pretty cool. What about you, Joe, where

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Speaker 1: do you go with the hot dogs?

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Speaker 3: If I'm feeling advente, maybe get a little chili cheese

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Speaker 3: action going on, and I'm gonna pay for I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: pay for it the next day, probably because that's gonna

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Speaker 3: ruin my stomach.

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Speaker 4: But chili and cheese is a nice combo.

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Speaker 3: But if I'm just having a regular hot dog or sausage,

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Speaker 3: use a little bit of honey mustard, a little bit

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Speaker 3: of catch up maybe, uh maybe a little bit of

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Speaker 3: hot tape, and maybe some just regular cheese on a

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Speaker 3: hot dog, like a slice of cheese.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how common that is, but I'm all

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Speaker 4: for it.

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Speaker 1: No maple syrup, no maple.

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Speaker 3: Syrup, no beaver tails, none of that Canadian Canadian style

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Speaker 3: hot dogs over here.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go ahead and jump in here. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with the MVP odds, where in the AL it's

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Speaker 1: really become a two horse race between Aaron Judge, Maia's

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Speaker 1: nine hundred and col Rally Big Dumper plus six hundred,

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Speaker 1: and then over in the NL it's really show Ao

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Speaker 1: Tawni minus one thousand and then everybody else with this

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Speaker 1: said Welsh, are there any surging players that you're maybe

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Speaker 1: starting to believe have a shot making a trip to

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Speaker 1: the podium for the sword.

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Speaker 2: I don't love this market at all, and I'll tell

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Speaker 2: you I think this market solely depends on an injury.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's it.

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Speaker 2: I think is Aaron Judge and Shohei Otani and everything

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Speaker 2: else is just speculation. So if you start to play

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Speaker 2: the speculation, a Rico I think is very smart in

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Speaker 2: what he's gonna take. He's gonna be taking the next

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Speaker 2: guy up. My take is a little bit different, So

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Speaker 2: I'm on again, there's risk in here taking anybody besides

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Speaker 2: the favorites, because it literally is going to bank on injury.

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Speaker 2: But Kyle Raley is number two in the al, but

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Speaker 2: jumping out is this wide, wide gap huge to number three,

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Speaker 2: and it's Terry's scouble And I'm gonna throw Terryk's scuoble

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Speaker 2: at you, just as a little aside here because his

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Speaker 2: odds are plus nine thousand plus nine thousand, huge, huge number,

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Speaker 2: obviously because he's a pitcher. But the reason I think

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Speaker 2: it's in play is, let's go to what I said.

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Speaker 2: We have to assume that Aaron Judge is gonna get hurt.

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Speaker 2: That's the only way that either one of these bets

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Speaker 2: makes sense. As fun as Kyle Raley is and you

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Speaker 2: know we're seeing from a war perspective, he's number two.

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Speaker 2: Cal Rally is number two in baseball, and I know

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Speaker 2: Joe's going to talk about that like it's all great.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think there is a scenario where cal

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Speaker 2: Raley's gonna take this unless, let's just say, without an injury,

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Speaker 2: Aaron Judge tapers back for two months, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: cal just goes on to another step and then the

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Speaker 2: Mariners are taking the division and blah blah blah. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so that but here's the scenario. Aaron Judge gets hurt,

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Speaker 2: then it's cal Raley jumps to your favorite. But what

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Speaker 2: if the Mariners start to backtrack? What I cal Rally

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Speaker 2: has been more of a common like two thirty two

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Speaker 2: to forty type of hitter. What if he takes a

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Speaker 2: backtrack in the second half of the season and the

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Speaker 2: Mariners start to tank. You're not going to give the

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Speaker 2: MVP to a team that doesn't get into the playoffs. Well,

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Speaker 2: what's the next step up? How about the pitcher with

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Speaker 2: the number one war in baseball, almost a full point

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Speaker 2: more higher than the next guy, Garrett crochet in Trick

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Speaker 2: Schooble with a four point three which is only a

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Speaker 2: couple of little small notches away from cal Rally. And

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Speaker 2: how about the best record in baseball? And how about

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Speaker 2: the Tigers getting is an element of what the team

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Speaker 2: is going to do here in their accolades. And that's

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Speaker 2: what Trig s Google has. He has seventeen game games

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Speaker 2: under his belt and he has ten wins. What if

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Speaker 2: he drops another ten? Is a twenty win guy with

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Speaker 2: a war that is as high or higher than cal

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Speaker 2: Raley has a low two ERA. He's a two pin

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Speaker 2: five era right now, is near the tippy top of

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Speaker 2: the league in strikeouts. I think you're gonna have to

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Speaker 2: look at a team with the most wins in baseball

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Speaker 2: if he has twenty plus wins, and if a guy

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Speaker 2: like Aaron Judge is out that we could see a

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Speaker 2: pitcher take that award in this case. And I just

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Speaker 2: think from an odds perspective, I don't see the crazy

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Speaker 2: value in getting seven to one on cal Rally right now.

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Speaker 2: But how about ninety to one, you know, for something

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Speaker 2: that is very plausible under this scenario that we have

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Speaker 2: to build to bet anybody besides Aaron Judge. So I

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Speaker 2: move away from this market a little bit, but that's

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Speaker 2: where I might try to, you know, have some speculative fun.

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Speaker 1: Joe, what are your thoughts on the MVP markets? Is

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Speaker 1: cal Rawley a guy that we should be getting invested

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Speaker 1: with because it felt like a couple months ago no

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Speaker 1: one really knew if this was for real. It feels

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Speaker 1: like he is here to stay. But I saw an

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Speaker 1: interview with him earlier this week and he was saying,

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Speaker 1: I didn't think this was coming, Like, I actually had

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Speaker 1: a pretty bad spring training leading up to this. So

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Speaker 1: do you think it's legit? And would you be investing

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Speaker 1: some of your unit allocation into the Seattle Mariners catcher?

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Speaker 4: I would yeah.

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Speaker 3: And it's funny when you go back and look at

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Speaker 3: spring training. He hit one eighty six, He had a

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Speaker 3: thirty percent strikeout right. It's funny because there are certain

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Speaker 3: players that pop in spring and then flop in the

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Speaker 3: regular season and vice versa. But cal Rawley is having

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Speaker 3: one of the best seasons we've ever seen from a catcher.

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Speaker 3: I don't even think that's hyperbolic. Thirty three home runs,

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Speaker 3: at this point of the year. I saw, I forget

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Speaker 3: who was MLB Network or somebody posted a graphic of

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Speaker 3: most home runs at this point of the season, and

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Speaker 3: the company he's with his bonds. It's Sosa, It's Maguire,

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Speaker 3: It's Ken Griffy Junior. It's pretty phenomenal stuff. A lot

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Speaker 3: of it does probably hinge on Aaron Judge missing sometime

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Speaker 3: or going through a horrible slump, but I think you

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Speaker 3: can spin a narrative of cal Rawley having an elite

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Speaker 3: offensive season. He's taken a bit of a step back

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Speaker 3: in terms of his defensive metrics, but he's still grading

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Speaker 3: out very positively. He's not quite the best catcher in

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Speaker 3: the American League anymore necessarily, but still a solid defensive

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Speaker 3: catcher to go along with what will probably be a

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Speaker 3: fifty plus home run campaign from behind the dish, and

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Speaker 3: we've never seen that before. So I think there is

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Speaker 3: a pathway for him to get some MVP love, especially

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Speaker 3: because Judge has wanted a couple times. The Mariners and

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Speaker 3: Yankees are only separated by four wins in the standings.

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Speaker 3: The Yankees have kind of cooled off a little bit,

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Speaker 3: so there is a chance that the mariners finished with

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Speaker 3: a better record. Don't know how likely that is necessarily,

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Speaker 3: but I think cal Rawley does make sense as a

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Speaker 3: sprinkle at the very least. Catchers don't usually get a

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Speaker 3: lot of love in this category. You don't usually see

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Speaker 3: catchers winning MVP. There's a couple examples in this century

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Speaker 3: Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, but it doesn't happen very often.

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Speaker 3: But this is the type of season that could very

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Speaker 3: well be rewarded with an MVP. The batting average, I

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Speaker 3: think is pretty stable. You know, he's made a lot

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Speaker 3: of improvements at the dish. He only has a two

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Speaker 3: to seventy six babbit so he's not getting lucky in

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Speaker 3: that sense. I think he can maintain somewhere in the

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Speaker 3: two seventies. And if he gets over fifty home runs

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Speaker 3: and finishes with eight plus war and he's trending well

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Speaker 3: in that direction, he's got five points six already. Rest

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Speaker 3: of season projections have him between two and a half

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Speaker 3: and three and a half additional war we could be

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Speaker 3: looking at a nine win season from a catcher, and

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Speaker 3: at that point we could see the voters having some

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Speaker 3: trouble not voting for him at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: assuming the records end up pretty close between the Mariners

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Speaker 3: and the Yankees.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, cal Rawley will be in the home run derby,

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Speaker 1: so we'll get to see him and his power on

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Speaker 1: full display here very very soon. Moving to the cy

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Speaker 1: Young market, in the AL, it is Scooball who's still

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Speaker 1: the favorite minus one ninety currently, Garrett Crochet's floating right

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Speaker 1: around plus seven to fifty at most books, Hunter Brown

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Speaker 1: thirteen to one, Max Freed thirteen to one, and then

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Speaker 1: your guy Jacob de Grom at thirteen to one as well. Arico.

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Speaker 1: Everyone else is higher odds than sixty to one. In

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Speaker 1: the NL, Paul skeins he has moved to minus money

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Speaker 1: minus one seventy as the favorite. Zach Wheeler is closing

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Speaker 1: the I know, Welsh, I think you grabbed him what

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Speaker 1: eleven to one at one point a couple months ago.

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Speaker 2: He's down. We did that on this show a couple

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Speaker 2: months Yeah, all the way.

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Speaker 1: Down to plus three sixty now, so you definitely have

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Speaker 1: some nice closing line value there. Same question for you, Chris,

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Speaker 1: are there any surging players that we should be considering

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Speaker 1: to get invested with in the cy Young whether that's

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Speaker 1: the AOU or the nut or is it just Hey,

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Speaker 1: let's stick with the tickets we have. I know, I

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Speaker 1: think you have a Paul Skins as well tickets, so

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Speaker 1: you're probably good in the NL. And Scoopball even minus

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Speaker 1: one ninety feels betable, especially maybe as a leg to

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Speaker 1: a parlay or something.

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Speaker 2: So if you're asking, like what, I stam Pat, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I would stand Pat, I have incredible value on Wheeler.

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Speaker 2: I think I got plus money value on Paul Skins.

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Speaker 2: I think those work well. I think there's no value

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Speaker 2: in the al market. Okay, there's nothing. I mean, scoop

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Speaker 2: Ball is going to run away with this, so I'm

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Speaker 2: not if I'm doing anything, it's not there. It would

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Speaker 2: be in the NL. Now if you can get you know,

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Speaker 2: at least three to one on Zach Wheeler, I think

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Speaker 2: that's still kind of fun. He's rocking Paul Skin. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna have a really rough time though the guy can't.

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Speaker 2: Is he gonna get to ten wins? I think we

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Speaker 2: looked we never I think we saw a starting pitcher

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Speaker 2: ever win the cy Young without at least ten wins,

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Speaker 2: So that's gonna be something to watch. I'm gonna take

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Speaker 2: this just like I did with the with the the

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Speaker 2: MVP market in that I think things have to happen.

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Speaker 2: There's only one place to bet. It's in the NL,

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Speaker 2: and between Schemes and Wheeler, I don't think there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of value. But the next guy, there's a huge

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Speaker 2: jump in value to Logan Webb, who is twenty to one.

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Speaker 2: He's plus two thousand right now, and he is point

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Speaker 2: zero one war away from Crochet. He's less than a

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Speaker 2: full warpoint from Scooble, so he's technically it's the highest

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Speaker 2: war of any pitcher in the NL right now. They

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Speaker 2: added offensive support, it's a pitcher friendly environment. He's got

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Speaker 2: a two six ERA with an x FIP that's lower.

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Speaker 2: So if he keeps going on this season, the Giants

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Speaker 2: start to take our run and they get into the

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Speaker 2: wild card. Maybe some how they take the division and

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Speaker 2: it's behind Logan web and he can get to sixteen

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Speaker 2: or seventeen wins. He's already a high war pitcher and

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Speaker 2: you're getting twenty to one odds in a market that's

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Speaker 2: got multiple He has no picture that's minus you know,

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Speaker 2: ten thousand or anything like that. You've got an open

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Speaker 2: market of schemes and Wheeler. I think web if I

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Speaker 2: were to speculate, is where I would go simply based

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Speaker 2: on odds and the numbers. But if you're asking me

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Speaker 2: as a whole, I'm probably staying away because I've already

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Speaker 2: got tickets that you have really great returns right now.

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Speaker 1: If someone isn't invested in SCOO Ball already, would you

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Speaker 1: be comfortable drinking the juice that is the minus one

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Speaker 1: ninety line?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, I mean, like, I like School Bowl is?

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Speaker 4: Is that what it is?

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Speaker 2: I thought I saw it like a huge, massively bigger number.

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Speaker 1: I've seen it. Minus one ninety is. I've seen a

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Speaker 1: variety of books have at different places. I've seen minus

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Speaker 1: through three hundred, but minus one nineties out there. I

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Speaker 1: can get you confirmation on what book that is, but

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Speaker 1: it is if.

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Speaker 2: It's a parlay piece or that. Yeah, sure, I mean,

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Speaker 2: like I'm talking about him being MVP at this point,

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Speaker 2: going to run away with that, Like Judge, it's only

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Speaker 2: going to be due to injury. That's the only thing

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Speaker 2: that's taking Schoople away from that right now. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean minus one I don't usually bet those, but

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Speaker 2: minus one I would be interesting. I like your idea

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Speaker 2: of like a Parley piece if you could still do it,

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Speaker 2: but that would be probably the only interest. That's why

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Speaker 2: the only other things I'm looking at are high odds

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Speaker 2: with some return probability, and I think that really at

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Speaker 2: this point in the entire siging market is only logan Web.

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Speaker 1: Joe, are you seeing any value floating out there in

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Speaker 1: the cy Young market? What's your take on logan Web

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Speaker 1: here as well? Twenty to one.

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Speaker 3: I think logan Web is fantastic. I just don't know

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Speaker 3: if he is necessarily the guy that the voters are

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Speaker 3: going to go for here. I think if I'm going

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Speaker 3: to betting it and Welsh got this number earlier in

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Speaker 3: the year, and kudos to him because he has a

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Speaker 3: better line on this, but I think Zach Wheeler still

308
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Speaker 3: makes the most sense. At three and a half to one.

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Speaker 3: You might be able to see four to one depending

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Speaker 3: on your books. Definitely shop around there, but he is

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Speaker 3: a two time runner up. He's finished second in si

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Speaker 3: Young voting twice. If you're looking at Baseball Reference War,

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Speaker 3: which I'm not the biggest fan of. I prefer Fangrousse,

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Speaker 3: but some voters will look at b REF and he

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Speaker 3: is leading all pitchers in the majors in war this season.

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Speaker 3: If you're looking at the National League specifically, just in

317
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Speaker 3: terms of his FIP, his Sierra, he is right at

318
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Speaker 3: the top of those leader boards with names like Logan

319
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Speaker 3: Web and Paul Skeans, and I think that all of

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Speaker 3: them do have a bit of a chance to win

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Speaker 3: the award. But I think Skeens being such a favorite

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Speaker 3: doesn't make a lot of sense to me, partly because

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Speaker 3: of what well sd Well said. Four wins in seventeen starts,

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Speaker 3: the Pirates are going to be sellers most likely at

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Speaker 3: the deadline.

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Speaker 4: We'll talk about that more later.

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Speaker 3: Sure, how many more games is Sean's gonna win this year?

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Speaker 3: Is he going to finish with seven eight wins? I

329
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Speaker 3: don't really see him getting to double digits, and that'll

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Speaker 3: probably hold him back. So seeing him at minus money

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Speaker 3: does it make a ton of sense to me. I

332
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Speaker 3: think Zach Wheeler is really the favorite here. He should

333
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Speaker 3: be the favorite just based on what we've seen from

334
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Speaker 3: him this year twenty seven percent strike up minus walk rate,

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Speaker 3: His era is two twenty seven. He is a point

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Speaker 3: nine to one whip. He's right in line with where

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Speaker 3: Skeins is, except he has a much better team that

338
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Speaker 3: he's pitching for, where he will I end up with

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Speaker 3: probably you know, thirteen or fourteen wins. He's already got eight,

340
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Speaker 3: so maybe even sixteen seventeen in a best case scenario.

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Speaker 3: That seems like the better play to me. Even though

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Speaker 3: that the odds were better earlier in the year. You're

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Speaker 3: still getting plus money on a guy who I believe

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Speaker 3: should probably be the favorite for this award as of today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate that at all. And man, it's

346
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Speaker 1: been such a tough summer in Pittsburgh. Like I have

347
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Speaker 1: friends who are die hard Pirates fans. They had season

348
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Speaker 1: tickets or the past before this year, and you know

349
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Speaker 1: they're not going anymore. People aren't going down to PNC,

350
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Speaker 1: one of the most beautiful ballparks in the entire Major League.

351
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Speaker 1: So disappointing to see, but over under Paul Skeins gets

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Speaker 1: traded in the next twelve months, Welsh, would you put

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Speaker 1: the line.

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Speaker 2: I mean like percentages zero percent? Okay, percent okay, zero percent?

355
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Speaker 2: Ever that Paul Skans get try I think the Pirates

356
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Speaker 2: would treat Paul Skeins like the Angels treated Show Halotani.

357
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Speaker 2: They done everything, just go down with the shift to

358
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Speaker 2: go down with the ship. And so I mean, I'll

359
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Speaker 2: say the odds are better in five years. Okay, if

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Speaker 2: he doesn't agree to some arbitrational like big contract or whatever,

361
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Speaker 2: and he tries to keep going and they know they

362
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Speaker 2: can't do it, there's your probability the next thirty six months,

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Speaker 2: I say it is zero point five percent.

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Speaker 3: It'll happen eventually, though, I think, like they traded glass,

365
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Speaker 3: now they got rid of coal, Like, I think eventually

366
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Speaker 3: it will happen.

367
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Speaker 2: But none of those guys were like the face of

368
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Speaker 2: the organ, like Paul Skeins is, like he's a whole

369
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Speaker 2: different breed. I'm not again, I'm not saying it won't happen,

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Speaker 2: but the whole like the pirate should trade him, It's

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Speaker 2: not gonna happen anytime soon. It would be like you're

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Speaker 2: coming into the last year of arbitration, last two or.

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Speaker 4: Something like that.

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Speaker 1: Well, we love you, Paul. We keep doing your thing, man.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we can get you some wins sometime soon before

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Speaker 1: we keep it moving. A quick reminder that our betting

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Speaker 1: pros Betting Systems tool is design to help you find

378
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Speaker 1: winning trends and make smarter bets. You can customize your

379
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,440
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380
00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:00,640
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381
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 1: you can track your performance of different betting systems over

382
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Speaker 1: time and optimize your bets to increase your chance to success.

383
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,000
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384
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 1: dot com slash systems to elevate your betting strategy and

385
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,840
Speaker 1: start making smarter bets. Let's move into some of the

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Speaker 1: more favorite future bets here that we have for everyone,

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Speaker 1: and with us now being eighty ish games into the season,

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Speaker 1: the season win tot market is certainly heating up. Joe,

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Speaker 1: are there any teams that have maybe a second half

390
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Speaker 1: schedules a bit soft that you can find some value

391
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Speaker 1: in down the stretch.

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Speaker 4: More so than just a schedule?

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Speaker 3: And Welsh, I apologize because I don't think you're gonna

394
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Speaker 3: love this one highly.

395
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Speaker 2: This one I would have taken it had you not.

396
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Speaker 4: Get to the sheet early. Baby.

397
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Speaker 3: The Diamondbacks, I think that they are gonna see probably

398
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Speaker 3: a bit of a tough road here over the next

399
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Speaker 3: couple months. They've lost Carbon Burns. They may as well

400
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 3: have lost Zach Allen, who has been one of the

401
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 3: worst pitchers in baseball. Corbyn Carroll heard Josh Naylor hurt,

402
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,200
Speaker 3: Suarez likely to be traded, both closers hurt. This is

403
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Speaker 3: a team that currently is five hundred and I don't

404
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 3: see them playing five hundred ball the rest of the way.

405
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 3: So you can get under eighty two and a half wins,

406
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 3: it's juice to minus one thirty. But this is a

407
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Speaker 3: team I think is going to be a selling team.

408
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 3: They're not going to probably want to rush back, Corbyn Carroll.

409
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Speaker 3: Depending on the severity of that fracture. I've heard that

410
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,359
Speaker 3: it's probably not too serious. But this is a team

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Speaker 3: that doesn't look like they are going to be playing

412
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Speaker 3: for much down the stretch, especially in that division. The

413
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Speaker 3: Dodgers are gonna win the division, and then you have

414
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Speaker 3: the Padres and the Giants, who are also really good,

415
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 3: probable playoff teams. I don't see the Diamondbacks. I don't

416
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Speaker 3: see the Diamondbacks viewing themselves as competitive enough that they

417
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,199
Speaker 3: won't just start selling off pieces. Combined with the injuries

418
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Speaker 3: that they have dealt with so far this season under

419
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Speaker 3: eighty two and a half, I think that maybe my

420
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Speaker 3: favorite bet of the whole show today.

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Speaker 1: Wow, Okay, Welsh, anyone that you're seeing that maybe as

422
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Speaker 1: a soft schedule or could be a collapse candidate for

423
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Speaker 1: after the trade deadline.

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Speaker 2: I would say number one is still that Diamondbacks one.

425
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Speaker 2: I completely agree with that. This has just been my trend,

426
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Speaker 2: and I this is probably the last month I can

427
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Speaker 2: do anything with this team. But the Boston Red Sox

428
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 2: they're the total. I'm still well, but but I'm there

429
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Speaker 2: because their win total is lower than the Diamondbacks right now,

430
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Speaker 2: and the writing is on the wall with the Diamondbacks.

431
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 2: Zach Allen's gone, Merril Kelly's gone, Corbyn Carroll, They're gonna slow.

432
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Speaker 2: You're probably gonna trade one of Rhineo Suarez or Josh Naylor.

433
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Speaker 2: It's going to just be shells of this team in

434
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 2: a massively competitive and tough division. The Red Sox are

435
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 2: projected or at least its number is two under. And

436
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 2: I know obviously they traded Ralphaeld Devers, which puts a

437
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 2: big wrinkle in a lot of it. But eighty point

438
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 2: five is the win total, and you can get it

439
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 2: at minus one oh four, so essentially almost even money.

440
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 2: And the reason I like this the most is they

441
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 2: are right there still in the wild Card. Obviously, this

442
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 2: division can't send everybody the entire wild Card, can't come

443
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: out of this. But the Boston Red Sox are three

444
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 2: games back on the wild card right now. They're an

445
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 2: even twenty two and twenty two against teams that are

446
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: five hundred. They've got a positive road record, our home record.

447
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 2: And I expect them to be aggressive in the trade

448
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:16,120
Speaker 2: market because they're so close. Another starting pitcher, maybe another bat,

449
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 2: you know, maybe they circle back on Marcelo's and I

450
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: don't know what it looks like, but I don't think

451
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 2: they're going to just let this go. I don't think

452
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 2: I was timpted with the Braves number. By the way,

453
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 2: the Braves look like a team that would do it,

454
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 2: but it's still a high number. And frankly, they're like

455
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: nine games or eleven games back on the wild card

456
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 2: right now. It seems like a foregone conclusion that they

457
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: might sell some pieces where I think the Red Sox

458
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 2: are too close. They've got one of the best pitchers

459
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 2: in baseball. Bregman's about to come back, Roman Anthony's getting hot.

460
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 2: Like I think the writing is on the wall that

461
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 2: they're going to make some moves and I think eighty

462
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 2: point five is a number that even though they don't

463
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: make the playoffs, I think they can not make the

464
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 2: playoffs and win eighty four games. So I'm taking the

465
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 2: Red Sox over win total at eighty point five for

466
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 2: almost even money.

467
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 1: Something to keep in mind two is getting into these

468
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 1: dog days this summer, especially when the MLB goes to

469
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 1: the All Star Break. A lot of these sports books

470
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 1: right now are throwing out like any sport profit boost

471
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: that you can use. I've seen some MLB specific ones

472
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 1: and just some any sport ones that I've been putting

473
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 1: a lot into the college football futures market or the

474
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 1: NFL futures market. So something considered here if you are

475
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: wanting to drink a little bit juice or go with

476
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: something closer to even money, like Welsh, it's I think

477
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: that's a great opportunity to use something like that. I

478
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: was looking through Fandle right there as Welsh was talking

479
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: and seeing maybe if that was something I could get

480
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 1: invested with, because I do like this young core the

481
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 1: Red Sox are building. Let's move to division winners here.

482
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: The Detroit Tigers now minus two thousand to win their division.

483
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 1: The Dodgers have now moved back to minus two thousand

484
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 1: to win their division. There's a little bit of hope

485
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: there that maybe the Padres, maybe the Giants could break through.

486
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: Minus three forty for Houston, minus two zho five for

487
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 1: the Yankees out East Chicago. Still minus one to eighty

488
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,959
Speaker 1: in the Philadelphia Phillies. Gaining some traction here as well,

489
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: minus one fifty, So a lot of movement here since

490
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 1: we've last spoken, Joe Rico in the division winners market,

491
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 1: is there anything you're seeing out there that is interesting

492
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: to you?

493
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 3: The Mets are kind of interesting to me because everybody

494
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,239
Speaker 3: has kind of, I don't maybe written them off as

495
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 3: too strong, but doom and gloom is all over New

496
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 3: York with how the Mets have been playing recently, and

497
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 3: they are now plus money for the division at plus

498
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 3: one sixty five, and they're.

499
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 4: Still just two games back of the Phillies.

500
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 3: You know, for all the horrible things you see written

501
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 3: on Mets Twitter, they're forty eight and thirty seven. Yes,

502
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 3: they've had a bad month, but this is still a

503
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 3: team that is right within reach. The thing that hurts

504
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 3: them is that they have dealt with a couple of

505
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 3: pitching injuries recently. But they are also a team that is.

506
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 4: Not afraid to spend. They have shown us that and

507
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 4: they will go out in a choir pitching.

508
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 3: I don't think anybody is going to deny that they

509
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 3: can't go out there in a playoff series and have

510
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 3: Paul Blackburn, Frankie Mantas and Blade Tidwell throwing meaningful innings

511
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 3: for them. They are going to go out and get

512
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 3: a pitcher, whether it's an al Contra, Mitch Keller, whoever

513
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 3: it is, maybe even somebody of more impact. They are

514
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 3: going to make some So I think they are still

515
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 3: right within striking distance of this division. They have a

516
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,120
Speaker 3: strong back end of the bullpen, they have a really

517
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 3: fantastic at least top half of their lineup, and I

518
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 3: think this is a team that could very easily still

519
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 3: win this division. Just two games back, you're getting them

520
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 3: at plus money.

521
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 4: I like it a lot.

522
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 1: What about you, Welsh? Anyone that could make some moves

523
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 1: at the deadline and their odds would be dropping after

524
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: that point.

525
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 2: I just want to say that is my favorite. The

526
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 2: Mets one is definitely my favorite. Taking the kind of

527
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 2: how we were having on our sheet where it's like,

528
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 2: you know, post June before the trade deadline. I'm gonight

529
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 2: throw this one at you because I think the Mets

530
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: is the one I would bet if I'm looking for

531
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 2: really good odds. I think the Brewers are another one

532
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 2: of those that you can take a look at for

533
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 2: a division winner. I do think the Cubs are really

534
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 2: strong and they're probably going to take this, but the

535
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 2: Brewers are two games back from them right now. So

536
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 2: it's really key when we talk about like pre deadline,

537
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: because the Cubs could be hyper aggressive. They have absolutely

538
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 2: got the assets to go out make some big moves offense.

539
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 2: They're killers out there. Like I think the Cubs could

540
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 2: be this sneaky World Series team that you could look at.

541
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: But if I want to play in this market, if

542
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 2: anything could happen over the next month, it is the Brewers.

543
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 2: The Brewers are gonna get Brandon Woodruff back. They've also

544
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 2: got some prospect assets that they can maybe go make

545
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 2: some moves. I think offensively, it's a really interesting core

546
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 2: Churio get the heat up. You've got Yelicht, Bryce Terrang

547
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: has played up and this division it's super close, So

548
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 2: why not at plus four to ten plus four to

549
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: ten for the Brewers who are two games back from

550
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 2: the Cubs right now. I think it just makes a

551
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 2: lot of sense. They're eight and two in their last ten.

552
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 2: They've got one of the best positive run differentials in

553
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: the NL. They've got a higher run differential than the

554
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 2: New York Mets or the Phillies do in the NL

555
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 2: East right now. So the Brewers are not a team

556
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 2: to sleep on. I know piece of per really likes them,

557
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: and it just four to one. I think the odds

558
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 2: are really good.

559
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 3: I want to add real quick, real quick about the

560
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 3: Brewers me south, but in the month of June, they

561
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 3: had the fourth best FIP in all of baseball at

562
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 3: three point fifty four, and then if you go to

563
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 3: the batting side, they had the sixth best WRC plus.

564
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 3: So they were one of the truly elite teams on

565
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 3: both sides of the ball in June.

566
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 2: And another one little thing I'll add if I'm doing

567
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 2: my math correctly here, they are only one of I

568
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 2: believe two teams in the NL are not. I guess

569
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 2: there's'd be three teams in the NL that have a

570
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 2: positive home at least do not have a negative home

571
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: road and versus five hundred records, So they at least

572
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 2: have an even or positive home record away record, and

573
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 2: versus five hundred teams the Phillies and the Cubs or

574
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: the other teams. So it's just you know, don't sleep

575
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 2: on them, and the odds are crazy.

576
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 1: Four to one. That feels like maybe the best play

577
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: you guys have noted it all day. Honestly, with the

578
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 1: pitching improving out there in Milwaukee, I think it could

579
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: be a great summer for them. Post deadline, guys, let's

580
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: talk about some team that can maybe sneak up out

581
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: of nowhere Randy or Rko style, potentially win a division

582
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: crown for themselves and cash some betters some long shot

583
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: tickets here as well. Welsh, what do you think, who's

584
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: someone who's maybe sneaking sniffing around right now that could

585
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: potentially be a dark horse to win their very own

586
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:17,479
Speaker 1: division this year?

587
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 2: Five and a half jumped up to me plus five

588
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: point fifty four. What is win healthy and rocking. The

589
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 2: best rotation from top to bottom with one of the

590
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 2: best closers in baseball is the Seattle Mariners. The Seattle

591
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 2: Mariners are plus five fifty and the reason is because

592
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 2: the Houston Ashos. The Houston Ashos. They've got a stranglehold

593
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 2: right now. They've got fifty wins. They're six games up

594
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 2: on the Mariners, which is not insurmountable, by the way,

595
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 2: but they've obviously got a nice little stranglehold on this.

596
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: They're seven and three in their last ten. But the

597
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 2: Mariners have got a positive run differential for which feels

598
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: like the first time and god knows how long. And

599
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 2: it's a pitching staff.

600
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:55,640
Speaker 4: That's the thing.

601
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: Their offenses rocking. With an MVP candidate like cal Rawley.

602
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 2: You've got a Rosa and you got Julio going, but

603
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 2: then you've got maybe the best closer and the best

604
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 2: pitching staff. Those are the things that definitely win in

605
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 2: the playoffs. But if you pair that against the Astros team,

606
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 2: which has Alvarez, who's hurt, God knows when he comes back.

607
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: Painia just had a fracture. Two biggest pieces of this

608
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 2: offense or hurt right now. Yes, Kim Smith is kind

609
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 2: of banking up unless they make some moves. I really

610
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,959
Speaker 2: think their rotation is susceptible after Hunter Brown. They're going

611
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 2: to have to make some plays there, and I think

612
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 2: the Mariners are a team that could close that gap.

613
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: So getting five and a half to one really jumped

614
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: out to me. If I'm going to make that bet

615
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 2: for a team that could fade a little bit with

616
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 2: the Astros and their injuries and the Mariners, just that

617
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 2: rotation alone, you know, if Gilbert's right and Kirby's right,

618
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: woo looks amazing right now, you just got to watch out.

619
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: So that would be where I would go.

620
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 1: Joe, what about you? Are there any divisions to you

621
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: that might be a little bit closer at the end

622
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: of the day than we're currently thinking.

623
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 3: I think the American League East is a pretty susceptible

624
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 3: division right now. The Yankees have kind of cooled off

625
00:27:58,840 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 3: more so than I think.

626
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 4: We were expecting.

627
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 3: We've talked about them on a couple of these shows

628
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 3: over the course of the year, and I don't think

629
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: many of us thought the Yankees lead would just be

630
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 3: a game and a half over the division right now,

631
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 3: which is currently the Rais and second. But I'm actually

632
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 3: going to jump down to the Blue Jays, who are

633
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 3: third in the division. They're two games back, but getting

634
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 3: them at plus four to seventy five again shop around

635
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 3: for the best line. That does feel like a really

636
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 3: solid bet to make. Considering how strong the Blue Jays

637
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: were in June offensively, they were a top ten team.

638
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 3: They just got Max Schurzer back. We have to see

639
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 3: how his thumb heals up, because yesterday he had a

640
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 3: really good start against the Yankees.

641
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 4: The Blue Jays are playing the Yankees right now in

642
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 4: a massive series.

643
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: Surezer was great, but his thumb is a little bit ify,

644
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 3: as it has been for most of the year. But

645
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 3: the Blue Jays are positioned as one of the bigger

646
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 3: buyers at the deadline. They'll probably add a bat. I

647
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 3: think they're going to add a starting pitcher, and I

648
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 3: think they'll probably add a bullpen piece as well. Whether

649
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 3: that is you know, a David Bednar, Mitch Keller, Brian

650
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: Reynolds type trade with the Pirates, whether it is going

651
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 3: to the Marlins, who are probably going to be shopping.

652
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 3: We mentioned earlier that the Diamondbacks are probably going to

653
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: have some players for sale. I think the Blue jay

654
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: are going to be very very active in this market

655
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 3: and getting them at plus four seventy five, whether just

656
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 3: two games back of the Yankees, who haven't been that

657
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 3: great for a while. I mean, Aaron Judge went through

658
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 3: his struggles. He's back now, He's not what you really

659
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: need to worry about, but the rest of that lineup

660
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 3: just doesn't really scare me all that much. The pitching

661
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: has been good at the top with Rodon and Freed,

662
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: but after that you don't really know what you're getting

663
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 3: out of them. The pen has been a bit shaky

664
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 3: with Williams earlier in the year. I think he's fine, probably,

665
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 3: but there are a lot of question marks I have

666
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 3: about the Yankees. I'm not sure how this older roster

667
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 3: is going to look as the year goes on. We've

668
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: already seen Paul Goldschmidt essentially turn into a platoon bat.

669
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 3: At this point, I'm not really sure what the second

670
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 3: half looks like for them, but I think they are

671
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: a little bit vulnerable, and I think the Blue Jays

672
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 3: of the team i'd want to betting on in the

673
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 3: Al East.

674
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 1: What about to make or to miss the playoffs? Markets, guys,

675
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: are there any teams kind of surging down the stretch

676
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: that might be able to make it into the postseason

677
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: and give better some current value?

678
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure this is their surging, but go

679
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 2: back to my eighty point five over wins for the

680
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: Red Sox and just say the Red Sox are three

681
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 2: games back from the wild card right now. They've got

682
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: they've only got the Angels in front of them, by

683
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: the way, that's it. And then you've got the Mariners,

684
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: Blue Jays and Rays. That is tough to get to.

685
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: But if I'm going to bank on them being, you know,

686
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 2: like a sneaky over on the wins and they're going

687
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 2: to be aggressive in the trade market and they're getting

688
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: Alex Bregman back, I think I could kind of jump

689
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: in there. And they're almost three to one right now,

690
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: So still almost three to one for the Red Sox

691
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. There's inherent risk, but that's where

692
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna.

693
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: Go, Joe, what about you? Who do you think is

694
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: potentially in the mix to make a playoff run late

695
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: in the season.

696
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: So I don't really love this market as a whole,

697
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: But the I think the best play is probably the

698
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 3: Giants at plus one thirty, I think that they're pretty

699
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: interesting still right in the mix. They're a game and

700
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,479
Speaker 3: a half back of the wild Card. Like I mentioned earlier,

701
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: I think the division is probably a foregone conclusion that

702
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 3: it's going to be the Dodgers, but they just went

703
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: and got Raphael Devers. Buster Posey is not going to

704
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 3: sit on his hands. I think that he sees an

705
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 3: opportunity team that looks pretty good right now, five games

706
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 3: above five hundred with a plus thirty run differential to

707
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 3: this point of the season. I think he'll continue to

708
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: make moves. They have a great two headed monster at

709
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 3: the top of that rotation with Webin Ray. You know,

710
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: the pen is a little bit of a question, but

711
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 3: I see the Giants as another team that's just going

712
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 3: to continue to kind of try and make moves here.

713
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 4: Whether they will or not, I'm not sure.

714
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 3: And like I said, this isn't my favorite market, but

715
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,959
Speaker 3: plus money for a surging team, I think it does

716
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 3: make sense here. If you are going to bet this,

717
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 3: I think the Giants are the best way to go.

718
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: Opposite side of the spectrum. Then let's shift to teams

719
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: that maybe in the mix right now that could fall

720
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: out of playoff contention by the time we get to

721
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: the fall.

722
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: Well you first, So if I haven't to have the

723
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 2: Red Sox being a team that jumps up, I'm gonna

724
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 2: have to take someone out. I don't think four teams

725
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: from the Al East are going to be the ones

726
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 2: that are going to go in, And unfortunately, I'm gonna

727
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 2: have to pick on the opposite side of mister Joe

728
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 2: Rico here and say it's the Toronto Blue Jays that

729
00:31:58,600 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 2: are going to be the ones that are There are

730
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 2: two games up right now, Seattle's like dead even there.

731
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 2: But of all the teams AL and NL as we

732
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: record this that have a playoff spot, so that is

733
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: divisional winners and wild card, there's only one team with

734
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: a negative run differential. It's Toronto Blue Jays. That's the

735
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 2: only team there. So you've got a red hot Rays

736
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: team who they are scoring runs. They've got some pitching depth.

737
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: I think if they want to make some moves they

738
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 2: probably won't.

739
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 4: They can.

740
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 2: I just don't know how aggressive and what it's going

741
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 2: to look like. What is the best move the Blue

742
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 2: Jays can do. Bring in Trader Savage, your savage from

743
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 2: the Miners. I don't think that's enough. I think you

744
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: have to be really aggressive in the trade market, and

745
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 2: I think that's where Boston's going to be. The Mariners

746
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 2: I've obviously talked about like how crazy they can be.

747
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: So I'm going to say that the Blue Jays are

748
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: the ones that get knocked out, and you're almost getting

749
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 2: two to one if you make that bet right now,

750
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 2: because there's only so many of those Al East teams

751
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: that can do it. And I'm going to say the

752
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 2: only negative run differential offensive side a team is going

753
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: to be the one that's knocked out in the Blue Jays.

754
00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: Joe, who do you think is going to fail to

755
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: go in the postseason?

756
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: Well, we're kind of on the opposite ends of this one.

757
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 3: I think the Mariners are potentially a team that could

758
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 3: struggle just because and there's a couple of reasons. It's

759
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 3: not just because of one thing. So we'll start with

760
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: the pitching. The last season, they had one of the

761
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 3: best pitching staffs we've ever seen. Everybody healthy, everybody doing great.

762
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: Hasn't been quite the same story this year. Luis Castillo

763
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 3: on the surface three fifty five RA, but he's not

764
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 3: Luis Castillo of old anymore. Logan Gilbert had the flexer

765
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: strain earlier in the year. George Kirby missed a bunch

766
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: of time. Bryce Miller forget about him. I don't think

767
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 3: the pitching is as deep as we might assume it

768
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 3: to be. These guys need to really regain that top form,

769
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 3: and it is possible. It's certainly possible that they do,

770
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: probably more likely for Gilbert and Kirby than it is

771
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: for Castillo. But then when you look at the offensive

772
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: side of things, it's essentially cal Rawley and then everybody else.

773
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 3: Randy Rose Arena has been pretty solid. JP Crawford has

774
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: been pretty good as well, But I mean Julio sitting

775
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 3: here slightly above league average two to fifty eight batting average,

776
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 3: one h nine WRC plus. He hasn't been blowing anybody away.

777
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 3: It's really been the cal Rawley show. And as much

778
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 3: as I think that, you know, he's still a good

779
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 3: bet for MVP. He's worth wagering on, et cetera. If

780
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 3: he does cool off, if cayl Rawley all of a

781
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 3: sudden goes into a huge slump, which is definitely possible,

782
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 3: I think this team could be in a little bit

783
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 3: of trouble. While they do have a positive run differential,

784
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 3: it's plus seventeen for the whole season, you know, it's

785
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 3: not It's not crazy. The Blue Jays being negative, yes,

786
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 3: is not my favorite, but it's a difference of twenty

787
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 3: runs over the course of the season. There so that

788
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 3: one I think is really close. I just feel like

789
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 3: the Mariners don't have enough of a supporting cast, and

790
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 3: I think Welsh alluded to it earlier. They're not a

791
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,399
Speaker 3: team that's going to go out there and make big

792
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 3: moves at the deadline. I think this is the team

793
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 3: that they're going to go in to the rest of

794
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: the season with, and I just don't know if it's

795
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 3: quite strong enough. So I would wager that the Mariners

796
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 3: probably don't get in plus one point fifteen on those

797
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: odds right now. I think it could go either way,

798
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 3: and it's another market that's not my favorite TIBT. But

799
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 3: if I were going to be wagering here, it's going

800
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 3: to be the Mariners to miss the playoffs.

801
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 1: Let's talk what everyone wants to know about World Series winners.

802
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 1: The Dodgers still currently the favorite plus two forty five.

803
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: The Yankees all the way down to six to one

804
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: just a couple of months ago. You could get them

805
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: round eight, nine to one. That has sent trunk. The

806
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: Tigers finally in the respects of the books as well,

807
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 1: that they probably deserve seven to one, the Phillies eight

808
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 1: to one as they're surging, and the Astros plus nine

809
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: to fifty a Rico. Who's the best chalk value right now?

810
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: Of those favorites sub you know, ten to one odds.

811
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 3: I think it's the Phillies. I think the Phillies are

812
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 3: the most complete team. Their bullpen hasn't been quite what

813
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 3: I was expecting it to be this year. They have

814
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 3: dealt with injuries and suspensions and all the rest of it.

815
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: But this is a team that has a solid lineup.

816
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 3: They just got Bryce Harper back. More than a solid lineup.

817
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 3: That top half is I would say pretty elite. Turner, Schwarber, Harper,

818
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 3: boem Cast, Theanos is fantastic. Their pitching is an embarrassment

819
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 3: of Riches, Wheeler, Sanchez, Lozardo who kind of scared us

820
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 3: a while there, but I think he's back. Ranger Suarez

821
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 3: has been brilliant, Mick Abel Andrew Painter on the way.

822
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 3: You know, we have a all at back end of

823
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 3: the pen here with Kirkering and Strom. Forget about Romano.

824
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 3: But I think this is a team that also could

825
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 3: potentially make a move or two for a reliever Aaron.

826
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 3: You don't even really need a factor in Aaron Nola

827
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 3: into this equation to think that this team could be

828
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 3: well good enough to get to the World Series and

829
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 3: potentially win it, considering their top end pitching depth and

830
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 3: the offensive firepower that they have as well.

831
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 1: What about you, Welsh Well, I took.

832
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: The chalk word really specific and because of that, I'm

833
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 2: not going to do I can't do anything in the

834
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 2: ANL besides the Dodgers right now. I just don't think

835
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 2: the It just doesn't make any sense. The odds aren't

836
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 2: good enough though. The Dodgers are susceptible one hundred percent.

837
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 2: So I got to move to the AL where I

838
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 2: think things are open. And if I'm going to go

839
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: with this word chalk, how about the Yankees. It's seven

840
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 2: to one, you know, I mean there isn't a Dodgers

841
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 2: life team in the AL right now, and the Yankees

842
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: at seven to one, knowing what they've gotten out and

843
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 2: what they can have assets to trade. Absolutely, do they

844
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 2: have some holes, yes, but gold Schmid's played amazing. Aaron

845
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 2: Judge is Aaron Judge. Max Freed has been an absolute

846
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 2: beast and win right. The combo of Devin Williams and

847
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 2: Luke Weaver is absolutely devastating. So it's like, to me,

848
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: You've got to have the pieces. You've got to have

849
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 2: the offense, you've got to have the pitching, and you've

850
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: got to have the bullpen. I think there may be

851
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 2: a piece away offensively that they can make a move.

852
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 2: I think it's more important to secure one more pitching

853
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 2: piece to go with Radon and Freed, and I think

854
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 2: those are really obtainable. So from a chalk standpoint, to

855
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 2: get seven to one on the Yankees, I'm gonna take that.

856
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: What about for those dirty d Jens out there, there's

857
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 1: someone like a second tier dark horse for you Welsh

858
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 1: that maybe we should begin invested in.

859
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 2: Well, let's do this together. Because Joe put this first.

860
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: I completely agree with this. I think it's really hard. Al. Yeah,

861
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 2: we're kind of holding answer. I think the al with

862
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: the same argument that I just made, you could be like, okay, well,

863
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 2: you know, start playing some of those dark horses. But

864
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: it's like the Tigers are another good one, but they're

865
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 2: like eight to one, the odds aren't really that great.

866
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 2: Going through. The dark horse was the Chicago Cubs, and

867
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 2: we both picked them because if they are, if they're

868
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 2: truly going to be as aggressive as being made out

869
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: in the market. Some are saying behind the scenes, the

870
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 2: Cubs are going to be the most aggressive if that's

871
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 2: the case, and you can bring in a cup because

872
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 2: they need pitching. If you can bring in let's say,

873
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: two big starting pitchers their offense with Pete Crow and

874
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 2: Kyle Tucker, it's near the tippy top, and then maybe

875
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 2: you got to get a bullpen piece or if you've

876
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 2: got like a healthy and working right Ryan Presley and

877
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 2: Porter Hodge and Palencia has been decent. Like if you

878
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 2: have that, you actually might have the bullpen. So you've

879
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 2: got a hyper focus, hyper focus on that pitching. And

880
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 2: if they can do that at thirteen to one, I

881
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 2: think they're a really dangerous team to look at, especially

882
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: if the Dodgers rotation, you know, just can't stay healthy.

883
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: So I just was in lockstep with Joe. If I

884
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 2: was gonna make one in the like, you know, plus

885
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 2: fifteen type of range, the Cubs were the standout to me.

886
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: Joe, you're also smoking that Chicago pack. What are you

887
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 1: thinking about the cuvees here down the stretch?

888
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't really have too much to add on here.

889
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 4: They have a great lineup.

890
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: I think Pca probably cools off a little bit, but

891
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 3: even if he does, still an excellent player all around.

892
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: The pitching is where they need to add. I totally

893
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 3: agree there. If they didn't lose Justin Steele, then this

894
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 3: would be a whole different conversation. But Matthew Boyd and

895
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: im and Naga is probably not quite enough there at

896
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: the top. I think Jamison ti Own is a lot

897
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 3: better than the four to forty four era suggests, But

898
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,959
Speaker 3: they're going to be adding. If we're going to believe

899
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 3: any of the reports we've seen, there are going to

900
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 3: be a couple of trades made to bring some.

901
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 4: Guys to Chicago.

902
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 3: And I think even if they don't make trades, right,

903
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 3: this is a team that's fourteen games above five hundred

904
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 3: to this point of the season. There are only two

905
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 3: teams three teams that have a better record than them,

906
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 3: the Dodgers, the Tigers, the Phillies like they are among

907
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 3: the elites even as currently constructed. And I think, considering

908
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 3: all the smoke we've heard around some trades being done,

909
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 3: we could be looking at the Cubs at the end

910
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: of the regular season as a team that has the

911
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 3: best record in all of baseball.

912
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros is now live on Twitch since opening day.

913
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: Joe Pi Sapia and Chris Welsh, Yes, the Welsh. They've

914
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 1: been live every weekday at twelve pm Eastern Time for

915
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: leading off your daily dose of all things at Baseball News,

916
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 1: no bets, and fantasy advice, all in one place. Ask questions,

917
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 1: get insight, and interact live. Follow us now on Twitch

918
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: dot tv, slash Fantasy Pros, and never miss a stream.

919
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: A bigger lineup of exclusive, interactive live content is on

920
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: the way. All right, guys, let's talk about the MLB

921
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: trade deadline here in a little rapid fire, starting with

922
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: which teams are likely to buy and thus surge in

923
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 1: the future betting markets. What are you thinking here, Joe.

924
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,240
Speaker 3: So, I've already mentioned a couple of them, the Cubs,

925
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 3: We've talked about the Blue Jays, the Mets, the Yankees.

926
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 3: These are the teams that are probably going to be

927
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 3: looking to add. It's probably pitching. When it comes to

928
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 3: the Cubs, the Blue Jays, the Mets, the Yankees, I

929
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 3: think they could go a couple different ways. They're probably

930
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 3: going to look to add a bat and probably some

931
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 3: pitching depth as well. But those are the main teams

932
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 3: that I think are going to probably see some massive

933
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 3: changes in odds between a week before the deadline and

934
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: a week after.

935
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:54,479
Speaker 1: Well, sho anyone you can add to that list.

936
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I agree with the Mets. I think

937
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: the bet earlier that Joe talked about is why I

938
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 2: like the Mets. I think they're to be aggressive. I've

939
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 2: mentioned the Red Sox clearly, you know. I think the

940
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 2: win total over I think they need to be more

941
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 2: aggressive than anybody if they're going to keep pace with

942
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: this division and sell this idea that they didn't sell

943
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,399
Speaker 2: Devers to be sellout so that they're going to keep

944
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 2: competing and they're getting Bregman back. I'll throw one more

945
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 2: the Reds. The Reds have been just a sneaky team

946
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 2: that's kind of looming around their third in the wild

947
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 2: card race right now, two and a half games back

948
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 2: in the NL. That team, Terry Francona, is there to

949
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: be aggressive. I think they're going to be buyers. They've

950
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 2: got pitching, they need bullpen help. I think they could

951
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 2: use another kind of leader bat. I think the Reds

952
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: and taking it to what your point of this is

953
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 2: is who are teams that can make trades that can

954
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 2: affect the odds. This is why I think the mets

955
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 2: in what Joe's bet was earlier. Why it makes sense.

956
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 2: This is why I think the Red Sox in their

957
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: win total is super low and the Reds are another one.

958
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 4: Reds.

959
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: I think I got a higher win total than the

960
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 2: Red Sox right now. But if you want to look

961
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 2: at making the playoff markets or win totals with the Reds,

962
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 2: I think them make trades will absolutely in fact impact

963
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 2: the future markets for them.

964
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 1: What about the inverse of this, who's throwing in the tow,

965
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 1: Who's saying this isn't our year and potentially going to

966
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 1: sell that we should be fading down the.

967
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 2: Stretching your Welsh Number one is the aarzone of Diamondbacks

968
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 2: of impact. I think there's clear teams that we know.

969
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 2: I think the Pirates we know, the Marlins, we know

970
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 2: like that's not any good. The White Sox you know

971
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: Robert at some point. But I don't think that affects

972
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 2: any of the markets. I think those were already built

973
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 2: into those markets. Sure the Diamondbacks does not. And this

974
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,959
Speaker 2: is why Joe's bet from earlier is so smart. Eighty

975
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,479
Speaker 2: two wins is still up there. When the Diamondbacks start

976
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: to sell off, that number should come back down and

977
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: they're going to have trouble winning games. Orioles. I think

978
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 2: that's another clear one and the sneaky one I've alluded

979
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 2: to earlier. How about the Atlanta Braves. The Atlanta Braves,

980
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 2: they're just so far back right now. I think the

981
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,359
Speaker 2: next three weeks is absolutely critical for them. But we've

982
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: also heard rumors of Marcel Azuna be involved in trades

983
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 2: that I don't know if this floated around about like

984
00:42:57,920 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 2: the Chris Sales stuff, I'm not sure they would ever trade.

985
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 2: I think the Braves might be a team that sell

986
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: off a couple pieces to move to next year and

987
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 2: not go crazy. But I do think there is the

988
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 2: potential that they could sell off a couple pieces knowing

989
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: they're not competing, and that could have an effect as

990
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 2: well on some of the markets.

991
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 1: Who do you think are the biggest sellers come the

992
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 1: trade deadline? That could shift the markets a little bit.

993
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 1: Joe that we haven't mentioned yet, So.

994
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 3: Like Welsh mentioned, a lot of them aren't gonna they're

995
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 3: not contenders. This would really be if you're looking to

996
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 3: bet win totals. But the Pirates, the Marlins, the Diamondbacks,

997
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 3: the Orioles, I think the Red Sox potentially as well.

998
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly what's going to happen in Boston.

999
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 3: It's been a rather hard season to forecast. But if

1000
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: they do go on a bit of a skid over

1001
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,320
Speaker 3: the next couple weeks, I could see some trades happening.

1002
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 3: I could see Chapman getting moved. I could see potentially

1003
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 3: Duran getting moved, and that would probably kill any over

1004
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 3: win total bets. But that's when we kind of have

1005
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,479
Speaker 3: to just monitor and see over the next couple weeks.

1006
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 3: If you're looking at bet it, just monitor day to

1007
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 3: day how the Red Sox are doing. If they go

1008
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 3: on a bit of a cold streak here and lose

1009
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 3: six of the next seven, that could really this time

1010
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 3: of year, these little streaks can really dictate the future

1011
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 3: of your franchise, So that'd be one to keep an

1012
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:04,879
Speaker 3: eye on as well.

1013
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: What about you here, Welsh, Is there anyone that when

1014
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 1: we go into the singular player markets, whether that's MVP

1015
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 1: CY young contenders that you're potentially fading due to their teams,

1016
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 1: is shift in movement here down the stretch?

1017
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1018
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 2: So, I mean we've talked a lot about the Mariners

1019
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 2: on both sides of this. I've obviously talked about the

1020
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,439
Speaker 2: positivity of like, hey, five and a half to one,

1021
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 2: But let me come back to the very first thing

1022
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,359
Speaker 2: I said was, if you know, something were to happen

1023
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: to Judge and cow Rally's up there, how is there

1024
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 2: anybody else? Well, if cow Rally kind of comes back

1025
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 2: down to earth, you know, Joe, you've also kind of

1026
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: talked about how it's been the cal Raley show. Well,

1027
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 2: if it stops being the cow Rally show and then

1028
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:48,760
Speaker 2: they go and you know, they don't make any moves,

1029
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 2: Let's say, because they've been comfortable, we've got Aron, or

1030
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 2: we made our moves last year, cal Rally's holding us up.

1031
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: And then they stand pat and don't make any moves

1032
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: and cow Rally comes back down to earth a bit

1033
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 2: not being this MVP like candidate. Then I actually think

1034
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 2: that could affect the cow Raley market and the MVP

1035
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 2: market for him. So if you're betting that, I think

1036
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 2: there's some it's a little sustainable or susceptible to if

1037
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 2: the Mariners as a team keep backtracking and they don't

1038
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 2: make any moves and set on their laurels, that I

1039
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: think those odds are going to just really kind of

1040
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: fade away for col Rally, And that's speculative. You know,

1041
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 2: he's number two and war in baseball and stuff. But

1042
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 2: I think the lack of moves from the Mariners could

1043
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: be the problem.

1044
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 1: Joe, anyone that you see in the MVP or Cy

1045
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,720
Speaker 1: Young markets as contenders that their fate could maybe shift

1046
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: when their teams are making moves of the deadline.

1047
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this one I did leading off.

1048
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 3: I filled in for Welsh a couple of days last

1049
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 3: week and resident Mets fan Joe Pi's a P and

1050
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 3: I were talking about the potential for Jacob deGrom to

1051
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: maybe be traded at the deadline, And while initially it

1052
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 3: seemed really far fetched, the more I've thought about it,

1053
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 3: the more I don't think it really is. Considering where

1054
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 3: the Rangers are in their trajectory, They've had.

1055
00:45:59,080 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 4: A bad season.

1056
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 3: They could still potentially turn things around and make the postseason,

1057
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 3: but there's also a chance that they don't want to

1058
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 3: be stuck with Jacob Bagram making thirty plus million dollars

1059
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 3: heading into his age thirty eight and thirty nine seasons. Sure,

1060
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 3: who needs a starting pitcher the New York Mets do.

1061
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 3: Where did Jacob deGrom spend the majority of his career

1062
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: and win two. So Young's in New York, so that

1063
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 3: could be a marriage that potentially does make sense. I

1064
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 3: have been beating the drum all year. Jacob Degram, cy Young,

1065
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 3: Zai Young cy Young. If he goes to the National

1066
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 3: League in a trade, potentially that would obviously kill it.

1067
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 3: But that's just something that people should be potentially aware of.

1068
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:32,839
Speaker 3: Not that it's likely, but this as a dark horse,

1069
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 3: maybe Jacob Degram does get moved, which would be a

1070
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 3: hell of a lot of fun.

1071
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:38,919
Speaker 2: It avoid your tickets, but then maybe you could jump

1072
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 2: in and get like six to seven to one. If

1073
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 2: de Graham was traded immediately in the end. Now maybe

1074
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 2: his odds because remember we talked about like Wheeler and schemes,

1075
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 2: maybe they're still gonna you're still gonna have credit for

1076
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 2: kind of the season. But then if he really kills

1077
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 2: it in the second half, he has the potential. It

1078
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 2: could be just an interesting thing to think about. At

1079
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 2: least your ticket would be voided. But yeah, I agree

1080
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 2: with you. There, that's it. It's an interesting take too,

1081
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: that the trade could kill this market that you've been

1082
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:04,720
Speaker 2: kind of excited about.

1083
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, you might be filling in for Joey p On

1084
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 1: leading off if the Mets make that trade, because he

1085
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 1: might be partying down in the streets of Brooklyn. If

1086
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:15,800
Speaker 1: that's the case, let's go ahead, let's close out the

1087
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 1: show here big long shot bets of the Month. These

1088
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 1: are gonna be anywhere from eight to one or longer. Welsh,

1089
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:24,720
Speaker 1: what do you have for the people in this beautiful

1090
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 1: month that is July.

1091
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 2: So I feel like I had a pretty I've had

1092
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 2: a pretty good run. I don't remember what my card

1093
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,879
Speaker 2: looked like, but we've had some really good long shot

1094
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: ones that I feel comfortable with. And I'm gonna throw

1095
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 2: this one because I think that market is getting kind

1096
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,399
Speaker 2: of quiet, like it is pretty tough to find. Maybe

1097
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 2: my Turk Scooble one would have qualified at nine thousand,

1098
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 2: you know, a plus nine thousand, so ninety to one

1099
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 2: for MVP. I think you could put that in this

1100
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 2: same bank. But I'm gonna throw this one at you. Yes,

1101
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 2: Jacob Wilson has a stranglehold, stranglehold on al Rookie of

1102
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 2: the Year indeed, but it come with an emptiness as

1103
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 2: far as like big stats, it's a team that's not

1104
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:09,280
Speaker 2: really winning you know, there's not big home run numbers,

1105
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 2: there's not big stolen base numbers, but there's huge batting average.

1106
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 2: No denying that. Let's say that comes back down to

1107
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 2: earth a little bit. How about forty to one on

1108
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 2: Roman Anthony right now, who has had an early crazy struggle,

1109
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 2: but though he has been hot as can be the

1110
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 2: last couple of game, we're talking multi hit games, game

1111
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 2: winners and all the things I've laid out. I've done

1112
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 2: this a couple of shows though with the Red Sox

1113
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 2: that you know, he's got the full run of play,

1114
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 2: he's got a full half season in front of him.

1115
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 2: What if he puts up twenty plus homers and the

1116
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 2: Red Sox starts surging. He is a candidate of all

1117
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: of these guys in the al that I think could

1118
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 2: really boost up. Maybe it ends up only being on

1119
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 2: like a fandel where you can buy out of it

1120
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 2: if the market becomes closer. But the Rookie of the

1121
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 2: Year award does not have to be done July first,

1122
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 2: and Roman Anthony is here, he's getting red hot, and

1123
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 2: you're getting crazy odds for the number one prospect in baseball.

1124
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: So I think that is something that I'm willing to

1125
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 2: take a little stab at.

1126
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind to sprinkle on that at all. Joe,

1127
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 1: bring us home your big long shot bet of the

1128
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 1: month for July.

1129
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 3: I don't need to harp on about this one because

1130
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 3: people probably already know where I'm heading, if they know

1131
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 3: me at all. I'm still interested in betting Jacob de

1132
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 3: Gram as the cy Young winner, and people probably think

1133
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 3: I'm crazy. And yes, Treik schoobl does have an absolute

1134
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 3: stranglehold on this award. I'm not gonna deny that, not

1135
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: even scoopl has been brilliant. But we also know that

1136
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 3: Schooble has a bit of an injury history. Most pitchers

1137
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 3: have a bit of an injury history.

1138
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 2: Everybody's always Jacob de Gram like Jacob to absolutely.

1139
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 4: No no question about it. Everybody is always one pitch away.

1140
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 3: But de Gram also just had the surgery in the

1141
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,840
Speaker 3: off season to repair his UCL And generally speaking, you

1142
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: have about three to four hundred innings after Tommy John

1143
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 3: where your arm is good to go. We saw it

1144
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 3: with Verlander a couple of years ago, off of his

1145
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 3: TJ when he was older than Verloin, when he was

1146
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 3: older than de Gram, had a sub two era Cy

1147
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 3: Young World Series had a brilliant year, and we've seen

1148
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 3: that kind of year from Jacob de Grim.

1149
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 4: He is a two zero eight ERA and a.

1150
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 3: Point eighty eight whip through half a season ninety five innings,

1151
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 3: he has been outstanding. This one is kind of banking

1152
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 3: on a Tarik Schouble injury, not that I want that

1153
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 3: to happen. I love drig Scouble. He is a brilliant pitcher.

1154
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 3: But if Drake Scouble were to get injured, I think

1155
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 3: that there's a good chance the voters would look at

1156
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 3: Jacob de Grom. This isn't just about statistics. This is

1157
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 3: also about narratives. And I've said this before. Jacob de

1158
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,439
Speaker 3: Grom coming back after years of not really being able

1159
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 3: to pitch, if he's able to finish with a sub

1160
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 3: two ERA and a whip that's below point nine, he's

1161
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 3: got eight wins and sixteen starts. He's pacing out for

1162
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 3: a sixteen win season. If Dagrom finishes sixteen wins, one

1163
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 3: ninety five ERA point nine whip, I think it'd be

1164
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 3: hard for the voters not to give him the award. Now, Scooble,

1165
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 3: if Scooble's healthy and he finishes out continuing doing what

1166
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 3: he's doing, then he's gonna win it. But this is

1167
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 3: kind of a contingency plan of if Scooble gets hurt,

1168
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 3: if Crochet gets hurt, if one of these guys at

1169
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 3: the top.

1170
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:55,879
Speaker 4: Or a couple of them get hurt.

1171
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 3: You know, in a year, if baseball nothing makes sense

1172
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 3: in baseball, right, it would make perfect sense that Jake

1173
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 3: it to Grom would be one of the only pitchers

1174
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 3: to stay healthy all year.

1175
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 4: So this is kind of a crazy one.

1176
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 3: I know it probably sounds crazy still, but I've been

1177
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 3: on this since the preseason and I'm continuing to stay

1178
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 3: on it.

1179
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 4: At fourteen to one.

1180
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 1: Sticking to your guns, Joe Rico, That's why I like you.

1181
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:16,240
Speaker 1: That's why I appreciate you always having you on the program.

1182
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 1: Well she as well. Thanks so much for bringing your

1183
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 1: analysis to us today. That is going to do it

1184
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 1: for us today on the Betting Pros podcast. Thank you

1185
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 1: all so much for watching and listening. As always, the

1186
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: best freeway support us is give this video a thumbs

1187
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: up if you enjoy this type of content. Also make

1188
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 1: sure you're subscribing if you're new. We're trying to get

1189
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 1: to one hundred thousand subscribers. Word on the street is

1190
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:38,720
Speaker 1: if we get there this year, we will be getting

1191
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 1: Joe Rico, a Jacob de Grom jersey. So help Joe Rico,

1192
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 1: help us, and make sure you're downloading the Betting Pros

1193
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 1: app and seeking your sportsbooks today. For Chris Welsh and

1194
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:50,919
Speaker 1: Joe Rico, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care of y'all.

1195
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

1196
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:56,320
Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

1197
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

1198
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

1199
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:06,400
Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

1200
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 5: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros