WEBVTT - Major Foreign Policy Tests Await a Starmer Victory 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:18.320 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to Voter Nomics, 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:22.119 where politics and markets collide. This year, voters around the 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.960 world have the ability to affect markets, countries, and economies 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:29.080 like never before, so we've created this series to help 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:32.639 me make sense of it all. I'm Aleca Stratton and 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.040 this week we actually don't have the usual Voter Nomics 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:39.360 crew Stephanie's in Barcelona and Adrian's in New York, but 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:43.400 instead we've got two of Bloomberg's top UK reporters right 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:45.600 here in the studio with us to join us for 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:49.600 this episode, Alex Wickham, Westminster political editor and Alvarey, reporter 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.320 and fellow read Out newsletter writer. We are a month in, 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:55.720 guys to this election. How are you bearing up? 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:59.760 Probably better than most of our sources who seem to 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.000 be on the last legs. I'm not sure how we're 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.880 going to do another nine days but not long now? 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:05.559 Is that from? 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:08.400 Is that all parties or all parties? I think it's 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.160 just so hard on a campaign, isn't it. It's one 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:12.880 thing being journalists go on a bus, you know, late nights, 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:15.759 but you know, if you're if you're an advisor or candidate. 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.440 You're just absolutely constant, has no escape. 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:20.800 If I think back to the battle buses that I 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.160 was on, I can think of the moment the morning 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.800 after David Cameron TV debate where he was expected to 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:28.800 wipe the floor with everybody else and he really didn't. 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:30.160 It was the one where Nick Clegg came out on 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:33.240 top six years and years ago, and the mood on 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.480 the bus was horrendous, really low, and you could sense 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:38.120 the team didn't know what they were going to do. 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:40.440 And then my other favorite was Nick Klegg used to 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:43.040 have these sneaky cigarettes around the back of the well, 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:44.680 not round the back of the battle bus. He would 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:47.319 go kind of one bus away and he didn't think 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:51.160 that like twenty journos sussed him out on this, what's 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:53.640 what's been your sort of impression from the buses? 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.680 So sadly, Alegra the buses are much less fun than 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:00.720 the name of Cameron days. They've changed how much access 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.680 you really get. So even though Labor publicizes its battlebus 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:06.160 with Kirstarmer and Angela Rayner, the press is on a 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.240 separate bus and he tends to travel around in I 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:14.000 know I'm ruining the magic, and he tends to travel 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:17.000 around in his land Rover with his special protection officers, 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.919 and then we are allied on the bus for brief moments. 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.360 So I think I've been on the on the bus 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.760 with Kirstarma for a total of aboute and hor Some 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:26.520 of that he was behind a little curtain. Some of 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:30.280 that he came out and chatted to us. But I 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:32.519 think Alex has had a bit more of an interesting time. 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:34.200 Have your bus has been better? 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:38.880 The Conservative Bus is Oxford United football team's former bus, 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.359 so it's very i would say, pretty nice quality. It's 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:45.120 journalists only and then you sort of get ten or 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:47.720 fifteen minutes if you're lucky with the Prime Minister. Richie 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:50.360 Sunek is very tigerish and he's very good at sort 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:53.400 of geeing himself up for a chat with the media. 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:56.920 In my highlights from Tory Bus the other day was 0:02:57.080 --> 0:03:00.160 they took us to a farm with David Cameron and 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.800 Richie Sinak, and David Cameron and a farmer were trying 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:07.600 to feed some sheep and as soon as they offered 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:11.160 the food, the sheep all ran in the opposite direction 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.080 extremely quickly, and Prime Minister sort of sunk to his 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:16.600 haunches and just shook his head and and he sort 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:18.880 of you almost started to feel a bit sorry for 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:19.720 him at that point. 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:22.480 We were joking yesterday that we were trying to find 0:03:22.560 --> 0:03:25.079 interesting things that kir Starmer has done on the battle Bus, 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:28.520 and we were really racking our brains for interesting color. 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:32.120 And we've observed that whenever he gets to a new 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:37.400 non league football ground, he just looks around and says, fantastic, fantastic, fantastic. 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:39.600 This is super disciplined. Basically. 0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:42.480 Yeah, he comes up for a short visit with some supporters. 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:44.960 They all have their placards. He gives the same stump speech, 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:48.800 gives one interview to local TV, then he's back, travels 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.480 for another two hours, Rinse, repeat, same message, same message. 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:53.560 So the bus can get a bit monotonous. 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:54.040 Right Well. 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:58.000 In this week's episode, we're looking at Labour's foreign policy plans. 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:00.920 Given the most likely outcome of the July fourth election 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:03.640 is that it is a Labor government, it would be good, 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:05.760 wouldn't it to know what the party has planned for 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:09.840 the UK's relationship with Europe, the US and the rest. 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:10.440 Of the word. 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:13.880 So, in a word, is it clear what Labor's foreign 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:14.520 policy will be? 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.080 I think continuity is probably the main thing. They don't 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:21.279 want anything against the grain at the moment in Europe, 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:22.960 particularly on things like Ukraine. 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:27.560 They have two words for it, bitgrand signing progressive realism, 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:31.360 which in practice just sort of means that they will 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.279 pay lip service to their progressive values while being actually 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:38.400 quite pragmatic about dealing with some very difficult foreign states 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:39.320 like India. 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:42.000 Okay, all right, well to talk through progressive realism and 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:44.719 reality of how some of that will work in practice, 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:49.000 we will shortly be turning to Tom Fletcher. He's a 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:51.920 former foreign policy advisor to no less than three UK 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:55.680 prime ministers. He's now principle of Hartford College at Oxford University. 0:04:56.320 --> 0:04:58.919 Also on the show, we have Ellen Milligan, who's a 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:02.560 Bloomberg reporter hopefully probably familiar to lots of you, and 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.760 she's just published some brilliant analysis on kids damer and 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:08.800 what she believes is his silence when it comes to Brexit. 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:16.000 So now we're going to go to our on the 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:19.040 ground voice for the week, Bloomberg's reporter, Ellen Milligan, who 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:21.760 you can't see, but she's sitting with her very virtuous What. 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.240 Is it, Ellen, It looks darker than just normal green juice. 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:26.200 It's a green juice mixed with kafir. 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.440 And is it your election? Is it your election coping strategy? 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:32.120 It's my it's getting me through the sleep deprivation and 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:33.360 lack of vitamin d yes. 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:37.000 Ellen, you published a piece about Brexit and Starmer. Just 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:40.000 talk us through the things that the sources were telling you. 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:44.599 Well, Labor has this what it describes as an ambitious 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:48.279 plan to forge closer ties with the EU. They describe 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:51.280 it as a new geopolitical partnership that they want to 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:55.480 build with their closest trading partner. But the truth is 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.320 that it's actually quite unambitious in the sense that it 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:02.000 sets some very clear redlines. Labor will not rejoin the 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.160 Customs Union, the Single Market will return to freedom of movement, 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:07.240 which means it's very limited in what it can do. 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:09.920 And essentially all it can do is kind of tinker 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.960 around the edges of the training Cooperation Agreement that was 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:17.960 agreed in twenty twenty, rather than fundamentally alter the trading relationship. 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:22.039 So it's got a few plans. One is a veterinary agreement, 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:25.159 which will ease that border friction, particularly on fresh food 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:29.039 and plants. The other is a security pat which actually 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:32.400 the EU had offered Boris Johnson and he rejected it. 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:36.640 In the negotiation, which is to cooperate on defence R 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:40.200 and D, joint procurement of weaponry for example for Ukraine, 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:46.560 and then also mutual recognitions of professions and visas for musicians, 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:50.560 all things that from my conversations with UK government officials 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.600 in the Foreign Office, Labor and EU diplomats are durable 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:56.720 but will involve concessions. 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:58.719 So it feels to me like there's two points there. 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.240 One is that they'll have to do things that they 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:03.760 might be criticized for. Do you think they'll be criticized 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:05.320 for them or do you think that actually with the 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.640 new government and you know many people saying the opinion 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:10.240 polls are becoming more skeptical about Brexit, do you think 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.920 they will have the kind of political now is to 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:13.840 get away with them. 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:18.840 There's I think two reasons why they their ambition on 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.960 the EU is limited. One is the political reason. They 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:25.640 want to win back those particularly the Red Wall parts 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.000 of the country that voted leave in twenty sixteen and 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:31.000 they lost in twenty nineteen to the Conservatives, many for 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:34.600 the first time those constituencies. But also it's a genuine 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:38.640 desire for their first five year term not to be 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:43.880 distracted by the same old debates about Brexit and you 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:47.200 know which distracted the government Conservative government from public services 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:50.280 and all these things for several years. I think when 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:54.000 it comes to things like concessions like the ECJ, I 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:56.400 don't think they'll have a lot of backlash internally in 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.360 their Labor party, especially if they have a big majority. 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:02.360 In fact, the labor base tends to be more pro 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.040 kind of things like a youth mobility deal that we 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:08.760 have reported in here that they actually are open to negotiating, 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.559 even though they've dismissed it publicly. But I think whether 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.880 their majority is big or not will defend whether they 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:15.200 mind so much about that. 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:19.360 Ellen, there's a really interesting nugget in the piece that 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.440 you used to lead with when you were promoting it, 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:25.680 which is what labor advisors and senior figures are saying 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:29.520 privately about the prospect of rejoining the EU or the 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.960 kind of the benefit that would have to the economy. 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.000 Do you want to just spell actually the thing that 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:37.360 they're admitting, which makes everything else that you've just said 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:38.160 so extraordinary. 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:41.640 I think the big overarching question for this whole five 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:45.000 year term that Labour's likely to get is it's so 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:50.520 reliant on economic growth being able to fund everything they 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:52.880 want to do, pretty much on public services in particular, 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.200 on defense spending, all these things. They want to get 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.320 up to that kind of two percent growth that we 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.199 saw under the Tony Blair euro that's stagnant for the 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:05.800 last few years. And what Labor, some senior Labor advisors 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:09.120 have conceded to me kind of privately, is that they 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:11.160 know that one of the most impactful ways that they 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:15.599 can achieve economic growth is to, for example, rejoin the 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:18.560 Customs Union or the Single Market, and yet they have 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:22.440 given insurances privately and publicly that they will not do 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:25.080 that in a first five year term. Now that opens 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:27.960 the question as to whether they could come under pressure 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:29.680 if they don't achieve the highest growth in the G 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:33.760 seven that they've promised, a very ambitious promise that maybe 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:36.040 those red lines will change by the time and next 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:37.160 selection comes along. 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:41.400 Being in those things would have an almost immediate impact 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:42.880 on growth where it would come through in the first 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:45.520 term of a parliament, But just extraordinary for them to 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:50.199 be conceding it privately and still sticking to their political approach. 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.120 I wonder as well, you know, does the size of 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.000 Labour's majority if it does win, and if it does 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.320 win big, do you think that makes a difference on 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.240 how they would think it. Obviously at the moment in 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:04.080 the election, Labor doesn't want to say, oh, we could 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:05.800 re join the tiger mark at the Customs Unit. It 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.280 doesn't want to give any grounds and give any doubt 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.480 to voters who did vote for Brexit, or at least 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.599 Air not in the full sort of remain camp. Do 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:17.520 you think that a big majority could shift things the 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.920 sort of the window of conversation on EU relations further 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:21.559 in that direction. 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:24.280 Kis Dama's shadow cabinet is full of remainers. I mean, 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:26.960 David Lammy described Brexit as a national tragedy and a 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.840 big speech you did in Parliament after twenty twenty. But 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:32.920 this is the thing and this this is what actually 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.400 Jonathan Reynolds had a very good line, which was that 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:38.720 our foreign policy will not be dictated by the internal 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.000 party politics of the Conservative Party. And so when you say, 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:45.439 you know, it rows over the ECJ quite niche technical 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:48.920 things that the voting public mostly don't understand has been 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:53.000 dominating you know, Ehr. We've seen it over immigration policy recently. 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:55.680 Those things aren't going to be so much a problem 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:59.640 again if there's a big labor majority, So I think 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:01.679 that's definitely the case. But I do think there is 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:05.439 a bit of naivety to think, you know, just because 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:09.080 we're kind of a pro remain, pro EU party, we 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.080 can kind of get all these you know, deals done. 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.360 The EU is incredibly hard to negotiate with. It's very 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.359 distracted by its own politics and its political shift. 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:18.520 To the right. 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.680 I suppose the thing listening to you just then, yes, 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:23.560 they don't want their foreign policy to be set by 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.400 the internal wranglings of the Tory Party. But it's clear 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:28.600 there'll be internal wranglings of the Labor party in that 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.319 if you've got, as Alex says, two hundred seat majority, 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.280 you will have siren voices whispering in your ear saying 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:35.840 you can do it, you can do it, go for it. 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:37.720 You may not have this opportunity again, this is the 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.440 right thing to do, and we all know you can 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.480 do the ming Var's strategy. Ahead of an election, then 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:45.160 people will start say you don't have to grip onto 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.280 that ming Vas at all tightly or even at all 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:50.240 you can. You can not drop it, but you know, 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:54.679 to extend the metaphor you can relax. And I suspect, 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:56.679 but I don't know, and I don't think anybody knows. 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:00.760 If you have farage and reform having done right in 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.520 this in this poll, you will have that that will 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.960 be your sort of will be a fairly forceful. 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:06.520 Check it, Alex. 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:08.480 I would have thought so by the time of the 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:12.160 next election, looking looking at five years ahead, would he 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.800 need a political mandate from the public to start making 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:16.920 these big changes with the EU? I mean, could he 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:20.200 do them sort of in all but name without that 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.360 political mandate. You know he's going to He's going to 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.000 face big sort of pressure from the from them, from 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:28.440 the sort of liberal media and from his own party. 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:31.200 And just wanted to move on. But it's a similar territory, 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:35.000 which is immigration. Kis Darma's got these these policies on immigration. 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:38.720 He wants to negotiate with France on take backs, so 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:40.440 taking back some of the asylums because. 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:41.000 That come over. 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:45.079 How do you think that will work? If we have 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.839 on Sunday the beginning of the national rally doing very 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:50.160 well in France's parliament. 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:55.320 This is really interesting because while there would be Foreign Secretary, 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:57.560 David Lammy has done a lot of work with the 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.880 Republicans in the US and has kind of, you know, 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.400 taken this quite pragmatic approach that they could be in 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.920 government in six months time. He hasn't done that, and 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:09.200 Kiirs Damer hasn't done that with the EUS. So what 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:13.280 I've been told by labor contacts is that while Kiirs 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:16.120 Starmer and David Lammy have made really good relations with 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:22.320 ol Schultz, for example, with Lemon in Germany, France's Emanuel 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:28.079 mccran Salma has not established a relationship with Georgia Maloney 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.680 a tour or her team. They've not done work with 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:34.120 Marine le Penz party in France or the AfD in Germany. 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.040 O Left Schultz has an election next year. He looks 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.400 like he's going to lose it. Mccroon's going to stay 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.439 on most likely til twenty twenty seven. But then you 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:43.440 could see a shift. So you could see this position 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:47.520 in a Kirs Starmer administration where suddenly you're already seeing 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:51.200 the political wins shift in the EU, but actually the 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.600 leadership changes are kind of halfway through or before that, 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:58.640 which I think will really change the way that he 0:13:59.160 --> 0:13:59.959 has relations with. 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:02.800 I think that they do have big hopes of working 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:08.079 quite closely with European center right parties on immigration. They 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.600 have sort of plans that they wouldn't be able to 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.320 do on their own basically, and they're already kind of 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.880 they anticipate that illegal migration is going to be a 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.360 massive issue. I mean, it's been a huge headache for 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.760 She's sooner act stopping the votes, but I think they 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:24.160 think it could get even worse into the first few 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:26.960 years of a labor government. And they keep talking about 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.320 like desperately hoping for the center right to win in 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.600 various elections because they don't think that they can work 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:35.840 with far right parties on immigration. They would just be 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:36.520 closed out of that. 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.760 But that is what's looking like happening. Yeah, what do 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:40.080 they do. 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:45.360 My impression is that they're still working. They still have 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:49.240 plans that they are hoping Macron will be in place 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:50.200 to help them deliver. 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:52.840 That's it for now, but I'm sure we will be 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.000 returning to this subject in the next few months. 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:57.720 Ellen Milligan, thank you very much. 0:14:58.000 --> 0:14:58.400 Thank you. 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.280 Now onto our guest Tom Fletcher joins us in our 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.760 London studio. Tom was previously the foreign policy advisor to 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:12.480 three UK Prime Ministers Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron, 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.760 and then he became British Ambassador to Lebanon. He's currently 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:19.360 head of Hartford College, Oxford. Tom. I remember you being 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:22.800 certainly in your role as foreign policy advisor to Gordon Brown, 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:28.000 and that crazy trip was it to Gulf countries and 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:29.200 then to Auschwitz within a day. 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:31.080 We did a lot of crazy trips together, I think, 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:33.440 and normally I would be the person that had to 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:35.680 come back on the plane and basically brate all the 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:40.000 press corps for whatever story you'd written about us all. 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:41.800 But I think that day, yeah, we were coming back 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.600 out of Afghanistan. We had a very grueling trip to Afghanistan, 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.800 see Karzai. Just got out in time, late at night. 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.880 Otherwise the plane, the C one thirty was going to 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:51.600 be grounded in Carbull and we'd all have stayed in 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.600 carbell overnight. Got out I think by Oman, and then 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.960 on to Auschwitzer the next day and then into big 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:01.920 talks with Donald Tusk, who's now back of course in Poland. 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.440 So that was just a normal day in Number ten 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:06.160 in those days, I. 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:07.240 Don't think so. 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:09.320 I don't think they do trips were crying quite that 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.000 much in now so Gordon. 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.520 You know, Gordon's shuttle diplomacy was lots of shuttle, and 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:16.720 then I was to do the diplomacy. 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:17.600 You know. 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:21.240 They once mistranslated my job title in China, which was 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.600 the Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs to the Prime Minister, 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:29.320 and it got mistranslated as the intimate typist, but it 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:33.160 was them the intimate typist for the Prime Minister's affairs overseas, 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.720 which of course in English means something completely different. But 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.600 in reality I didn't organize any prime minister's affairs overseas. 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:41.880 It was just but I was a kind of bad carrier, 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.680 policy maker, speech writer and all the rest. 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:45.360 Okay. 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.120 So just so, looking at the kind of strategic comparatives 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.400 for possibly Prime Minister kissed Armer, what do you think 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:55.000 are the three things he will be wanting to sort. 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:59.400 I mean, he faces the fullest diary of state craft 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:02.120 of any prime minister I think for their first month 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:06.240 in office since Churchill. That's quite a big claim. But 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:09.800 that NATO summit within days of taking office and then 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:14.280 that first meeting with Biden, they are enormously consequential for 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.399 so many of these issues NATO, Ukraine, for what happens 0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:19.159 next on the Middle East, And of course in the 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:22.439 background there you've got the specter of the Orange, specter 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:26.480 of Donald Trump waiting in the wings as well. So 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.440 I think that set of issues is a massive, massive challenge. 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:32.560 What next for NATO? You know what next for UK defense? 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:34.879 How are we going to reimagine the threats that actually 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.720 are coming in our direction and prepare for those. Then 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:40.680 I think you've got a really, really tough summer on 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:42.879 the Middle East. We may be coming to the end 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:44.960 of this phase in Gaza, and it's been a pretty 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:48.960 sickening eight nine months to work through. I have great 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:52.080 fears that the wall now move north to my old 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:55.040 stomping ground of Lebanon, and that we may see a 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:59.479 similar military action there, which would dominate the summer and 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.520 present some massive challenges to an incoming government. But then, 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:04.359 I mean, can I have four? I mean, because Europe 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.199 is also massive, and I think this is redefining. Some 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:09.359 of that will be about body language and tone of 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:13.320 our relationship with Europe, particularly on the security side. And 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:15.520 then the danger will be that, look, these first thirty 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:17.959 days will be so defining but the danger will be 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:21.640 taking tactical decisions that then influence long term strategy. And 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:24.160 nowhere is that more the case than on China. If 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.680 you could almost work back from the end of this term, 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.240 maybe the end of two terms as Prime minister, and 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:31.720 think what is the overall tone of that relationship with 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.560 China and how do we get kind of early decisions 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.200 right to reflect that overall strategy. 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:39.560 As you say, pretty early decision he's going to have 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.879 to make is defense spending, and the Conservatives who've committed 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:45.359 to two point five by twenty thirty, and Labor obviously 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.200 hasn't committed to that yet, and he's got the NATO 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:51.240 summit days after coming in. Do you think Labor's position 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:53.919 can hold on in terms of two point five whenever 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:56.360 we can, which is basically their current position, or will 0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:59.360 will they come under pressure from Biden or other allies 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.480 to really firm up their policy on that. 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:03.400 I think there will be pressure there, but I also 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.640 think they can hold off. A lot of expectations around 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.320 that summit will be that they're talking to a grown 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.440 up who's going to be there for eight years, and 0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:16.520 the body language and the tone will be as important 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:18.960 as what they announce, it will be this sense that 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:21.280 you have a prime minister there who is going to 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.399 be engaged. He's going to build the relationships, he's going 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:25.880 to work on these practical issues. So I think they'll 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.720 give him some time. There won't be an expectation that 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:32.320 everything happens immediately. You know, I mentioned how difficult the 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.520 calendar is for those thirty days, but that's also an 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:37.840 opportunity because you can do a lot of that stake craft, 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:41.040 a lot of that relationship building, and try to hold 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.000 off some of those big long term strategic decisions. That 0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:45.080 would be my advice to them. 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.240 And he'll be hosting, of course, all the European leaders 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:50.159 at blenh And Palace was in a few weeks of 0:19:50.200 --> 0:19:52.640