WEBVTT - Trump, Jamie Dimon, OPEC, and Markets 0:00:00.760 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.400 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.159 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's talk. Get some 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:25.000 news that's going to take place at downtown Manhattan today 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:28.560 really fifteen former President Trump apparently reportedly is going to 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:31.960 be indicted. Little team coverage here for bloom We're gonna 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.239 round table to seeing Bloomberg's pretty Gupta. She is downtown 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:37.800 right now as we speak, at Center Street, so we'll 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.800 get the latest there and plus Boston Bloomberg Washington correspond 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.320 and Joe Matthew joins us from DC. So Critty, let's 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:47.960 start with you here. What is the scene downtown? Again? 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:51.240 The President expected to be arraigned or indicted and arraigned. 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.280 Two fifteen pm, I believe is the time. What are 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.480 you seeing downtown? Yeah, so two pm you are going 0:00:57.560 --> 0:00:59.720 to see a President Trump around two pm. Get a 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:01.720 range and basically what that means is he's going to 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:03.959 come in to the District Attorney's office, which is where 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:07.320 we are right outside, and he's reason going to have 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:09.560 his charges told to him. Look, it's reported that his 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.720 team doesn't yet know what the charges actually are. There 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:15.800 suspicions the rage anywhere from twenty four to thirty different 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:18.880 counts in charges, so really waiting to see what that 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.280 actually means. He's going to go in. There are no 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:24.360 cameras allowed for the arranged actual arrangement, but photographs can 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.319 be taken beforehand. He's going to go in, He's going 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:29.800 to submit his plea. The Trump's defense team has said 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:32.640 that he's going to plead not guilty, and then it's 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:34.720 going to be a quick, quick exit from there. He's 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:38.160 going to get fingerprinted, he might have a mug shot potentially, 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.600 we don't actually know because of security reasons, he might not, 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:45.280 and then he's gonna head very quickly back to Marlago 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.720 to make his comments out of the state about eight 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:51.280 fifteen pm tonight, So a very quick turnaround. But let 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.480 me just draw you a picture or paint you a 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:56.680 picture if I can. We have this kind of layers 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:00.120 of people, who's starting with a District Attorney's office have 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:04.880 kind of barricades, a massive police presence, a massive press presence, 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:07.760 and then separated from that in the park a right 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:10.040 next door, right across the street from the District Attorney's 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:13.200 office are protesters. And you're seeing protesters from both sides, 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:18.720 but largely more pro Trumps than anti Trump. So he's 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:22.880 got to get back to give his speech from Mara Lago, 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.280 and I guess Alvin Bragg is going to give a 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.320 statement afterwards as well. What do you think we're going 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:34.559 to hear from these two guys. Well, so Alvin Bragg specifically, 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:37.600 we're going to hear more about perhaps some of the 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.000 allegations that are being made against him. Remember, he has 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:43.720 been at the end of more attacking Congress as well, 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:46.480 not just a Trump's defense team as well the Trump 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.239 defense teams specifically if that have attacked his character is 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.520 at attack of legitimacy, is the case. But there are 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:53.960 members of Congress who are saying, why is Alvin Bragg 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:56.920 taking this on now when this case was presented to 0:02:57.000 --> 0:02:58.720 him a year ago, So there is a lot of 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.639 questions about that, how he's actually funding this as the 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:04.440 use of federal funds to protecute the form of plesident 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.640 is really justified. It's likely he may comments on that, 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:09.320 but at the end of the day, it might be 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:12.760 a very simple question, do we actually start to hear 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:15.320 what the charges actually are. That's what we're expecting at 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:17.960 least at three thirty pm. The mar Laudo comments, by 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:20.480 the way, at eight fifteen PM, could go in any direction. 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:23.240 I'll leave it to Joe to speculate on that one. Yeah, Joe, 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.160 let's let's bring you in. Here's what's the feeling in 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:31.639 DC as to these events today at two o'clock downtown Manhattan, 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:33.880 and then what we might hear from the former president 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:36.520 this evening. What's the feeling in DC right now? Look, 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.960 everyone's looking to New York, and you've even got Marjorie 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.360 Taylor Green there now. Is apparently not a big fan 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:43.000 of your town. I don't know if you've seen some 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:44.680 of the tweets, she says. On my way to my 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:46.880 hotel in New York City, I've seen many people so 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:49.520 drugged up they can't even stand up. They just fall 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:53.200 over on the sidewalks from using drugs at mayor Adams 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:55.560 Free drug use centers. I'm wondering if she's ever walked 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:57.680 around the district of Columbia. But wait, where are the 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:00.200 free drug use centers? I didn't know about this, just 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.600 reply to her on Twitter. Actually, well, she's got she's 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:05.080 got an event that starts very soon here ten thirty, 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:07.920 about fifteen minutes, the rally for Trump with the New 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:11.320 York Young Republican Club will begin across the street. She's 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.400 also suggesting that she will be attacked with a sort 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.279 of audio attack, as the counter protesters are bringing whistles 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:19.320 and pots and pans to try to drown her out. 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:23.000 The former President's going to be there early though, eleven 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:27.040 am is what is being reported now, to surrender leading 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:29.360 up to the indictment at two fifteen, at which time 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.760 the indictment will be unsealed and will actually have the charges. 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.960 As far as tonight goes, there actually were questions about 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:38.920 whether he would have to navigate a gag order, but 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:40.680 it looks like that will not be the case. He's 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:43.320 going to return to Marrow Lago and will deliver what 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.040 I suspect will be a fairly carefully written speech. Whether 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.080 he sticks to the script is the big question here. 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:50.560 But the idea is, you know, to have this sort 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:55.080 of administration in waiting the shadow administration. He's back there. 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:57.040 He's going to be in a suit and tie, not 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.560 looking like a criminal in a jumpsuit, acting and a 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.240 peer presidential. The big question we have is who's going 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:04.400 to show up. He's invited a lot of lawmakers to 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.000 go there, and it's a real moment here to choose 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:09.800 whether you want to be seen tonight at Marlago as 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:12.800 a loyal supporter of Donald Trump or you have other plans. 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:14.920 By the way, it does seem like it would be, 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.880 I mean, beyond ridiculous to take a mug shot of 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:24.120 the former president, right. I guess fingerprints maybe aren't on record, 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:25.640 but did they really have to do that? Kind of 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.000 looks like it's not going to happen. I was really 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.840 taken by that reporting because supposedly Donald Trump was hoping 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.240 to use that, you know, as a campaign poster or 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.839 as a fundraiser. He was mugging in the mirror to 0:05:35.920 --> 0:05:40.880 try to strike the perfect posture here and expression. I 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.360 always go back to that Frank Sinatra mug shot. I'm 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.039 just guessing he was looking at that. But it looks 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:46.920 like there will not be a mug shot. He will 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.880 be fingerprinted digitally so he will not have ink on 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.920 his hands, and the Secret Service will be right there 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:54.919 with him. The question is what happens between eleven and 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:58.880 two fifteen. There's apparently going to be a move following 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:03.479 the surrender to the internally connected courthouse. He will not 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:07.120 likely go outside, but that could be the closest thing 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.440 we see to a perp walk based on reporting. Whether 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.400 they get pictures of it is another question. Some reporters 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:14.920 will be allowed in for some still photos during the arraignment, 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:17.640 they'll be ushered right back outside. There will not be 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.520 any video, so you know, we might get a glimpse 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:23.080 of this moment in history, but that's about it. Joe, 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:24.800 What kind of response do you think we'll get from 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.839 perhaps individual members of Congress on both sides of the 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.880 aisle once the indictment is unsealed and we get a 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:33.760 little bit more clarity, because it seems like his allies 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:37.480 are remaining pretty staunch here. Yeah, it's suspect that it'll 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.120 be pretty predictable, to be honest with you. You know, 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:42.120 we've we've heard Democrats, at least on the progressive side 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:44.720 of the party celebrating lots of exclamation points. This is 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.800 about time justice finally being served, and then you've got 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.800 Republicans calling this a witch hunt. It's the Center that 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:53.680 has been awfully quiet, and the White House has been 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.599 awfully quiet too. There's been a concerted decision there to 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:59.159 not talk about this, to not get bogged down in it, 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.120 and President, just like everybody else, is going to be 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.920 watching this unfold today. Critty, let me ask you about 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:08.160 what it's like down there right now. I'm sure that 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:11.760 there are so many thousands of reporters that you can 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:16.880 barely breathe. But are there any protesters or supporters? I mean, 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.679 yesterday they were like a couple literally two right are 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.760 there were there bus loads of people that are showing 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:26.480 up now or is it still just all press. It 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:30.080 is definitely showing up in full force with protesters, and 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.440 you're seeing this again for both pro Trump and anti Trump. 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:36.920 I did have I wouldn't say two scuffles earlier that 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:39.600 we're broken up by the police. It looks like it's 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.080 mostly peaceful. You are starting to see more and more 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:45.280 people pile in to the parts that are pro Trump. 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.160 I remember, you're also seeing some lawmakers come onto the 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.880 scene as well. We had George Santos a spotting George 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.600 Santos earlier about an hour ago, and it is reported 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.720 that Representative Marjorie Tayler Green, who is a representative of 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:59.680 the fourteenth District of Georgia and a Republicans has says 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.800 she's point to be right here to protest the arraignment 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:05.160 of the former president. So we are on Wash for 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:09.120 more protesters, more politicians who are here too. As Joe said, 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.280 say are you or are you not with President Trump? 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:14.200 And in fact, as we're speaking right now, we are 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:17.880 seeing some more police presidence and actually a motorcade. It 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:21.840 doesn't look like this is necessarily President or former President 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:25.560 Trump's motorcade just yet, but again a very high profile 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.920 presence coming from Washing NDC. And just quick cretty the 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:33.360 police presidence is it? Is it NYPD primarily and then 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:35.440 I guess some secret service when when the president arrives 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:40.080 former president define it is definitely NYPD mostly, But you 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:42.679 are seeing to Joe's point about kind of that intersection, 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.679 the internal intersection between the court and the District Attorney's office, 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:47.920 it is completely walked off and that's where you are 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:52.720 seeing some secret service details, so very mostly dominated by 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.520 the New York Police Department, but there is again that 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:58.559 presence from the White House as well. All right, great stuff, guys, 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.880 really appreciate getting the inspectives there. Bloomberg's pretty Gupta. She 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:06.040 is downtown live at Center Street with the Manhattan District 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.559 Attorney's Office, and then down Washington, DC. Bloomberg's Watchington corresponded, 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:13.080 Joe Matthew, giving us the perspective from this from Washington, 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:16.240 d C. From the Capitol on this historic day. I mean, 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:18.679 that's it is in historic day. Well, it'll be I'm 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.680 sort some compelling images and we'll see what the indictment 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.720 reads when we get that later this afternoon, and then 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.600 we'll get the reactions from presumably members of Congress and 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:32.040 then the former president himself at eight pm tonight from 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:35.800 Marlago down in Palm Beach, Florida. That's so we'll have 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:40.200 continued reporting on that throughout the day. You're listening to 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:44.040 the Team Cancer Line program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:47.440 am eastering on Bloomberg dot Com, the I Heart Radio app, 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.480 and the Bloomberg Business App. We're listening on demand wherever 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:55.319 you get your podcast. I know it's a big deal 0:09:55.400 --> 0:10:00.240 because there's been so much pain in terms of of 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:04.199 you know, losses and both money and jobs. So much 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:10.080 hurt there domestically, there's such rage, outrage, and then we 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:12.920 have UBS tomorrow. But I just don't know what difference 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:15.920 the credit sweets agm makes. I was talking to Oliver 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.480 Crook about this earlier. He's in Zurich, and he says, well, 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:21.040 for one thing, they've got to have the team in 0:10:21.080 --> 0:10:24.840 place to hand off right bank to UBS. But who 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.760 can we ask who will who has the best overview? 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.040 I think I got somebody. I think I got somebody. 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:33.959 Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence. She does this stuff for a living. 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.120 So Alison, let's start there where Matt was kind of 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:39.439 talking about this meeting here. I mean, what's going on 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.800 over in Zurch We've got UBS buying Credit Swiss. But 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:46.720 I guess Credit Swiss had to have their annual general 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:48.880 meeting today. But it just seems kind of odd timing, 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:54.280 doesn't I mean, it does sound odd timing. And again 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.280 to Matt's point two, I agree, it's it seems almost 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.760 sort of pointless, right. But we're in a really unusual 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:04.480 situation where, um, you know, the government came in and 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:08.280 said they were going to skip shareholder votes and then 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:12.439 you know, now we're having this meeting where these shareholders 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:16.040 are basically not having a say in terms of this 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:19.400 coming deal. So I think it's just perhaps, um, you know, 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:21.560 a lot of the statements coming out of it are 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:25.360 our people, you know, having their say verbally even though 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.120 they're not able to sort of exercise the rights that 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:32.600 a typical shareholder would have. So I mean, I guess 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:35.720 as we got a little bit of hindsight here, Alison. 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:40.880 For UBS, I mean again, is this a deal with 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.040 hindsight that they wanted to have? It seems like a 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:46.760 great opportunity. I think so Stock You're right in the 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.520 stock won a big time, but they seem to be 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.960 so wedded to their their their plan of kind of 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:54.200 slimming down the bank focusing on wealth management. How do 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.000 you think the bankers are feeling about it these days? 0:11:56.320 --> 0:12:00.160 So I think for UBS, again, you know it to 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:03.960 the extent that they have the financial protections based in 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:08.080 they do get you know, a fair amount of what 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:11.520 they want right, which is, you know, of course there 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:15.320 is the cultural issues and the like in terms of 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.440 bringing these bankers in, but they want more us than 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.760 the investment bank. They want that m and a business 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:22.839 so to the extent that they can hire and keep 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:28.040 those bankers and clients, that's a good thing. They want. 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.520 Latin America and Southeast Asia, those are big ads and 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:36.480 their wealth business and the asset management. Again there's some 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:40.600 complementary stuff. And the investment bank had pretty much been 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:45.640 gutted from a trading standpoint as it was so. And 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.160 then finally, of course, I mean the position that they 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:51.600 now have in Switzerland, which you know, I don't think 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.280 would have been allowed if it weren't for the government 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:59.360 orchestrating it because it is such a sizeable, concentrated position. 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.680 The question remains, and I think people go back to 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:04.680 sort of the playbook of the crisis. You know, what 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:08.560 else are they inheriting. One of the things is, you know, 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.480 sort of legal liabilities that obviously turned out to be 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:15.280 hugely costly around the deals at the global financial crisis. 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.120 But I think this is a little bit different. If 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:19.960 you think about the depth and breadth of mortgage and 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:24.640 the harm globally and you know, mom and pop consumers there, 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.960 there's not I don't think the same stakes and I 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:31.280 think but I do think that ubs bargain to get 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.319 what they could and build some protections in and so 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:35.600 at the end of the day that that will be 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.640 you know what what says financially if it was a 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.840 good deal. I think strategically they are getting sort of 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:44.679 what they want and able to you know, sort of 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:47.240 run down what they don't want. All right, let's get 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:51.040 to you know, the godfather of big banks, Jamie Diamond, 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:56.840 puts out his annual letter. Everybody reads it, and he 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:01.240 doesn't even really hold back too much when criticizing regular 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:05.560 leaders for the failure of SVB, says kind of, you know, 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:10.079 you put these banks in this position and then you 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.360 shut them down after they use these tools to to 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:17.400 to fail. Um. What do you think about Jamie Diamond's 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:20.760 missive here? So I think, you know, Jamie Diamond is 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:26.560 always very vocal and you know, certainly he has given 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.600 their their position and their size and the regulation they 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:34.920 face because of those aspects. Um, you know there he's 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:39.920 always very vocal about regulation broadly. UM, And I think 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.400 that you know he is he is making the point 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.680 and he doesn't by the way he does say you know, 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:49.600 this doesn't excuse management, but I think he is you know, 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:53.600 broadening out the picture in terms of the position that uh, 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:56.560 you know, the bags are in in turn and and 0:14:56.880 --> 0:14:58.920 you know, if you look at it, it's a little wonky. 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:00.760 But like you know, it comes down to the capital 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:03.440 weights and the way the capital regulations are. And he 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:08.280 has consistently consistently talked about, you know the fact that 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:10.880 he thinks that a lot of the capital rules it's 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.600 it's too complex because there's too overlapping, and that there 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.800 are unintended consequences, and so I think he's using his 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.680 form to point some of those out. All right, Alison, 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.000 one of the I think brewing headwinds, if you will, 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:28.960 for banks of all shapes and sizes, is commercial real estate. 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:30.960 I'm hearing more and more about that. I suspect that 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:33.160 we're gonna hear more about it when the banks start 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:34.960 reporting earnings in a couple of weeks. I know you 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.120 and your team have done some research on this. How 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.240 big of a risk is commercial real estate to the 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:44.520 banking system. So I think the important thing about commercial 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.160 real estate is that you know, it's not sort of 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:50.920 a broad brush. There are there are several different holders, 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:55.640 there are several different properties. And the focus I think 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:58.880 has come, you know, the regional because the regional banks 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:03.920 had these issues with securities not being marked market, and 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.440 then people are thinking about how loans are not marked 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.000 to market and could there be weakness, And the regional 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.920 banks are the biggest holders of this debt. So in 0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:15.040 some of the bigger global companies that I cover, it's 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.720 not as critical or the exposures are not as big, 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.120 but it is bigger for the regionals. And the one 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:26.040 area that we're watching along with everybody else. I don't 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:29.160 think we're unique in this is the office market because 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:35.040 of the weaker cash flows, rising vacancy, and again this 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:40.880 is sort of another unprecedented time where we have returned 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:42.600 to office. We still don't know how that's going to 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.520 shake out. So we think this is an area of 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:48.640 focus for the largest banks. It's a smaller exposure, but 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.240 this is going to be a long term time to 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:54.600 play out. It's not going to be like how SVB 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.080 sort of unwound in a couple of days, especially for 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.120 the larger banks. But I think what investors will focus 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.960 on is for the smaller banks. You know, could there 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:09.960 be certain ones that are overexposed and at risk? Alison, 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:14.080 you're running our banks coverage for Bloomberg Intelligence globally? How 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:18.399 many humans do you still have on your team? A lot? 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:21.000 Because I was thinking you might want to replace some 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:25.159 of them at least with chat GPT. Well you know 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.640 chat GBT, as you know, I think people are trying 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.320 to find ways to leverage it. I would say that, Um, 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:35.960 I just realized we have a Bloomberg GPT. Did you 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:38.679 know that? You know? Yeah, I think we can do 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:42.200 Bloomberg intelligence management can be I'm only joking around because 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:44.560 Jamie Diamond mentioned that they have a tony you you are, 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:46.160 I know you are, but but I guess I would 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:48.360 just point to like, that's that's sort of how when 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:50.679 you separate the week from the chaff? Right? Is it? 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.040 You know? Is the analysis digging in and giving you 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.640 what you need to know and looking past sort of 0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:01.000 the headlines or you know something that you could sub 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:04.400 diving beneath the surface if you will. All right, so 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.040 what's when you earnings coming up? About thirty seconds left 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:08.560 house and earnings coming up in a couple of weeks. 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:12.160 What's the number one thing we should be focusing on, well, 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:16.600 aside from commercial real estate, what's happening was deposits number 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.520 one thing deposits, What are the flows at for each 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:21.520 bank and for the system as a whole, and is 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.040 that just disclosed by the bank. That's not some data 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.640 you get somewhere from the government. We do get data 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.800 weekly from the government. It does come with a lag, 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:32.760 and so that's why the last couple of weeks you've 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.639 seen you have seen those outflows of those really relate. 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:38.439 We're hoping that this week well, or we're expecting this 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.359 week that we'll see some stabilization. The issue with that 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:44.720 data though, is you know, there's a couple of different categories. 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.760 One category is the top twenty five banks, So you're 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:50.080 not going to see in there if some of the 0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:54.280 large regionals are seating share to sort of the top 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.359 six banks. And I think it is going to be 0:18:56.760 --> 0:19:00.239 banked by bank, not just what's happening was deposits, by 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.240 the way, but what's happening with the rate that people 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:05.600 are paying on deposits, because that's another side effect that 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:08.200 we're expecting that that will be going up. All right, 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:10.080 all right, Alison, thank you so much for joining us. 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.120 Really appreciate getting your perspective. There a lot of ground 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:15.520 we covered, Alison Williams. She's a senior Banks analyst. She 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:18.200 is a human. She is not a bot or a GPT. 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:19.919 She's been doing this for a while, and she's a 0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:23.199 Bloomberg intelligence. You're listening to the tape. Ken's a our 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:27.000 live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on 0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:30.280 Bloomberg Radio, tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.440 Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.840 Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:43.840 play Bloomberg eleven thirty. Well, yesterday's news in the global 0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:48.520 energy space was actually Sunday afternoon. Our time was OPEC 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:51.760 plus cutting production by one million barrels, and we had 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:54.880 a nice pop five six percent in global crude yesterday, 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:58.160 up another half percent here today, Brent crude up sitting 0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:01.720 here at eighty five bucks. Talk about global energy, the 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.960 fossil fuel stuff as well as the sustainable energy as well. 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:07.600 And we could do that with Jonathan Maxwell. He's a 0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:12.280 CEO and co founder of Sustainable Development Capital. He's based 0:20:12.280 --> 0:20:16.000 in London, Piccadilly, but he's here in our Bloomberg in 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:18.080 an actor broker studio in New York City. We appreciate 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:21.920 it your offices aren't Piccadilly, So isn't that like having 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:24.600 an office in Times Square? It is whipped just around 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:28.240 the corner I talpped away, so we can even mind 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.200 just off Piccadilly. They have some of the best clothing 0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:35.000 ancestry stores in London, right, I mean that's Hill Ditching 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:37.280 Keys where I get my shirts. There you go Turnabowl 0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:40.120 and Asser is right up there. They're a number of 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:44.119 such companies. So you know what, Jonathan, I'm glad that 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:47.520 you're here today because I saw something in the Jamie 0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.800 Diamond letter that I thought you might find interesting. Now, 0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:52.800 no one's had time to read the whole thing yet 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:54.920 because it's forty three pages and it just came out 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.240 a couple of hours ago, but I did notice he 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:03.200 encourages the government to use eminent domain when it comes 0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:08.879 to both sustainable energy and fossil fuel policy. I'm not 0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:12.800 sure exactly how he means it yet, but what do 0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:17.639 you think of an enlarged government role in you know, 0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:23.320 the industry that you work in. We've spent years subsidizing 0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:28.120