WEBVTT - TV Volume Declines, Box Office Rebounds: 2024 By the Numbers

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Strictly Business, Variety's weekly podcast featuring conversations with

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<v Speaker 1>industry leaders about the business of media and entertainment. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Cynthia Lyttleton, co editor in chief of Variety Today. My

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<v Speaker 1>guests are Mark Hobick and Carolyn Finger of Illuminate. Illuminate

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<v Speaker 1>is a data and insights company that focuses on audience

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<v Speaker 1>measurement for the entertainment industry. It's a corporate sibling of Variety,

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<v Speaker 1>under the umbrella of our parent company PMC. Of Late,

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<v Speaker 1>Illuminate has gone hard on the business of measuring streaming

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<v Speaker 1>TV viewership. That's a lot harder than it sounds. Illuminate

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<v Speaker 1>executives crunch numbers all day, every day, but they also

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<v Speaker 1>stop every so often to produce long term reports to

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<v Speaker 1>give real insights into what's going on and how things

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<v Speaker 1>are changing in this very dynamic marketplace. The twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four year end Film and TV Report was issued late

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<v Speaker 1>last month. It's linked in the show notes to this

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<v Speaker 1>episode and the Variety dot com story for this episode,

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<v Speaker 1>and as advertised, it is packed with insights. Mark is

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<v Speaker 1>executive vice president and head of Film and TV for Illuminate.

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<v Speaker 1>Carolyn is Senior VP of Consumer Success and Products for Illuminate.

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<v Speaker 1>The three of us have known one another for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time through many different jobs. I think that comes

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<v Speaker 1>through in this conversation. There is a lot of laughs

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<v Speaker 1>and a lot of shorthand from people who know and

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<v Speaker 1>respect each other a great deal. That conversation is coming

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<v Speaker 1>right up after this break, and we're back with a

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<v Speaker 1>conversation about the year in streaming TV with Illuminates. Markobick

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<v Speaker 1>and Carolyn Finger. Thank you so much for joining me.

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<v Speaker 1>This is fun because I've known you both for so

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<v Speaker 1>long and I know you both to be absolute aces

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<v Speaker 1>at what you do, so, dear listeners, you could not

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<v Speaker 1>get a better overview of what the streaming landscape has

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<v Speaker 1>wrought in twenty twenty four than these two. So thank

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<v Speaker 1>you for coming all the way up from the seventh FLOORA.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for having us. Yes, that was a full

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<v Speaker 2>disclosure that had to happen at each.

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<v Speaker 3>Other, Yes, one hundred percent. No, I've learned a lot

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<v Speaker 3>from both of you over the years. I would like

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<v Speaker 3>to start just by throwing it out to both of you.

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<v Speaker 3>What you know. You crunch the numbers all day long.

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<v Speaker 3>I know hourly you're looking at data, and you're refining

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<v Speaker 3>and really getting great insights and great information as you

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<v Speaker 3>took that step back and looked at the kind of

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<v Speaker 3>the long the long term of the year, As you

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<v Speaker 3>took that step back and looked at the landscape of

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty four, what top line what stood out to

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<v Speaker 3>you as surprising? What didn't you know by doing this

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<v Speaker 3>report from your day to day, hour by hour efforts.

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<v Speaker 2>For me, I think one of my kind of top

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<v Speaker 2>level takeaways is really when we look at the content output,

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<v Speaker 2>and we're looking at it on the TV side, streaming

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<v Speaker 2>and linear together, when we look at that, while we

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<v Speaker 2>saw a lessening of the decline year over year, we

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<v Speaker 2>still saw a seven percent drop and that really was

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<v Speaker 2>effect from the reverberations we're feeling from the strikes.

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<v Speaker 1>And you're talking about total volume, total content.

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<v Speaker 2>Of series premiers. Yeah, thank you. And you know, in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three we saw a seventeen percent drop, So

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<v Speaker 2>a seven percent drop is an improvement in that we're

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<v Speaker 2>declining less quickly in terms of the number of series

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<v Speaker 2>premieers we're seeing, but very significant. One of the really

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<v Speaker 2>fascinating parts to the report is that while we see

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<v Speaker 2>a seven percent drop in the overall number of series released.

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<v Speaker 2>When we look at episode orders, the episode orders declined significantly,

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<v Speaker 2>so well we see this moderation of decline on the

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<v Speaker 2>series side. The episodes, we saw almost a twenty percent

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<v Speaker 2>drop year over year from prior year, and that trend

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<v Speaker 2>has continued now two years in a row. Was seventeen

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<v Speaker 2>percent in twenty twenty three and then almost twenty percent

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty four. And that is the media companies

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<v Speaker 2>are really being more stingy with when they're doing series

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<v Speaker 2>or ordering series, just taking fewer episodes, and of course

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<v Speaker 2>that impacts our entire entertainment ecosystem for writers, producers, directors,

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<v Speaker 2>actors who really rely on those episodic orders.

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<v Speaker 4>I would say, yes, I agree, and also I guess

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<v Speaker 4>in the biggest picture to me, all of the sign

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<v Speaker 4>posts are looking towards kind of risk mitigation for the studios.

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<v Speaker 4>And what I mean by that is, you know, we

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<v Speaker 4>have these terrible strikes, so we have this huge reduction

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<v Speaker 4>in production, and.

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<v Speaker 3>That was the reasons for the seventeen for a large

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<v Speaker 3>part of the reason for seventeen percent in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that accurate, Yes, But then the strikes are over,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, happiness reigns again in the land. But no,

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<v Speaker 4>not really because then we're having these, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>this contraction on corporate level where there there's kind of

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<v Speaker 4>fear about I think number one, there's a fear around

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<v Speaker 4>TikTok and what are they you know, can they invest

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<v Speaker 4>in all these shows? Who's the audience for shows? So

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<v Speaker 4>it's all kind of spelled out. They're trying to find

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<v Speaker 4>different ways to produce fewer things, have more things that

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<v Speaker 4>are part of a franchise or existing on peace, safer things,

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<v Speaker 4>safer things, you know, the limited series which we can

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<v Speaker 4>talk about. You know, all of these things are kind

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<v Speaker 4>of spelling a net loss I think.

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<v Speaker 2>In the entertainment ecosystem. Yeah, and I like your answer

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<v Speaker 2>kind of change mine, you know, but I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>risk mitigation, and through this study we really see what's

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<v Speaker 2>working and what's not working in terms of the risk

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<v Speaker 2>of mitigation strategies. But yeah, I agree with what you

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<v Speaker 2>said one hundred percent.

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<v Speaker 3>We did see in the report that the volume of

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<v Speaker 3>limited series has has definitely come down because people are

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<v Speaker 3>I think, because people are focused on those renewable resources,

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<v Speaker 3>and also people are spending money on sports as opposed

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<v Speaker 3>to spending you know, ten million dollars an episode on

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<v Speaker 3>a six episode series like gee, who could have seen

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<v Speaker 3>that that wasn't exactly sustainable, But so it seems like

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<v Speaker 3>a good idea at the time, exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>But is there is there any discernible, any any quantification

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<v Speaker 1>of like fewer series overall and an emphasis on shows

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<v Speaker 1>that they hope to renew, you know, a limited series

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<v Speaker 1>is limited until until it works and then yeah, right,

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<v Speaker 1>But is there any quantifiable that that you know, focusing

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<v Speaker 1>on fewer shows has better results because you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>can market more heavily to one show really really promoted

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<v Speaker 1>to be you know, really promoted to an audience as

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<v Speaker 1>like this isn't just a one off, but you know

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to want to watch Noah Wiley or you

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<v Speaker 1>know other people in these settings.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, I don't think we are evidence has seen that.

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<v Speaker 2>The thing I would say is that we do know

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<v Speaker 2>that P and A really matters, you know, promotion advertising

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<v Speaker 2>when we look at film, and this is a theme

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<v Speaker 2>I think throughout content that we're seeing is that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>to what you're getting at that if we have fewer titles,

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<v Speaker 2>are we able to kind of promote those more and

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<v Speaker 2>really get through the clutter and audiences can find that

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<v Speaker 2>the recommendation just govery is a huge issue for the streamers,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a huge issue for everybody because we have so

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<v Speaker 2>many choices of content.

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<v Speaker 4>Because of the emphasis on completion rates in streaming. It's

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<v Speaker 4>it's just it's different. Things don't have the same kind

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<v Speaker 4>of breathing room that they once had with linear where

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<v Speaker 4>they were dropping one episode weak and you could kind

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<v Speaker 4>of see week to week. If you are in a

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<v Speaker 4>scenario where like Netflix, where everything is dropped all at once,

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<v Speaker 4>and maybe there is that initial m and a push,

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<v Speaker 4>but if it doesn't get that audience initially, then it's

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<v Speaker 4>much harder, I think, to get Yeah, so you know

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<v Speaker 4>it gives in, it takes.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a that's an interesting question. So if not naming

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<v Speaker 3>names or anything, but a six episode limited series drops

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<v Speaker 3>and if people do you see that, like if people

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<v Speaker 3>don't go to it, you know fairly soon to episode

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<v Speaker 3>one or two, like they're never going to go check

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<v Speaker 3>out They're certainly never going to go check out the

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<v Speaker 3>rest of it. But like it is it a time

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<v Speaker 3>sensitive thing, is what I'm saying. Like once at premieres,

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<v Speaker 3>they if you don't go to it, it's really hard

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<v Speaker 3>to get people to it a month or two later.

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<v Speaker 2>We see in streaming definitely the sampling and that those

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<v Speaker 2>first twelve weeks is really critical. And the other thing

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<v Speaker 2>that we know from the streamers and our discussions with

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<v Speaker 2>our partners is that that ninety percent completion rate is

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<v Speaker 2>very very important in order to get a second or

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<v Speaker 2>third season, order to get those multiple season orders. So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we can see that in the data and

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<v Speaker 2>in the importance of it.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and that's also important, you know, speaking of strikes,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, with the arrangements to get more residuals for streaming,

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<v Speaker 4>that time frame is kind of baked into that as

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<v Speaker 4>well as you know, the number of subscribers who are watching.

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<v Speaker 1>Does it follow? Do you think that as the streamer

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<v Speaker 1>is starting to realize that that, you know, maybe they're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to do a twenty two episode procedural, but

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<v Speaker 1>like Max with the Pit I believe is like fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>or sixteen episodes. Do you think that when we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>next year about about the twenty twenty five repart you

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<v Speaker 1>think episode council will start to inch up?

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<v Speaker 2>I hope.

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<v Speaker 4>So we did get I mean we you know, Channing.

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<v Speaker 2>Dungey actually made this announcement actually at Variety and in Tech.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember when she talked about the John Wells series

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<v Speaker 2>that they're bringing back, and they were very happy to

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<v Speaker 2>announce they were looking at twenty two to twenty three

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<v Speaker 2>episode orders. So I think there is that awareness of

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<v Speaker 2>this is an underserved type of content that we're just

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<v Speaker 2>not producing at the same volume that we are. So,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, our latest sort of feedback we've gotten from

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<v Speaker 2>the streamers when we've sat down with them has been

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<v Speaker 2>their focus is really looking at content with a global footprint,

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<v Speaker 2>not US centric content, and time will tell whether that

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<v Speaker 2>translates into more episodes or not. But I don't know

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<v Speaker 2>if they're seeing that quite yet at the streamers that

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<v Speaker 2>they need to be producing more episodes, because as the

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<v Speaker 2>data is showing us, they've in fact and cutting back

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<v Speaker 2>now for two consecutive years in terms of episode of orders.

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<v Speaker 3>And then let's talk a little bit more about comedy,

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<v Speaker 3>because I did notice it very very noticeable in the report,

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<v Speaker 3>all those nice color codings, very noticeable that CBS is basically,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean CBS is basically the only the really only

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<v Speaker 3>big brand broadcast or streaming that has a real big

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<v Speaker 3>comedy business. Netflix of course has a lot of comedies,

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<v Speaker 3>but in terms of elementary yeah, oh for sure, it's.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, oh absolutely, but I mean really, but just in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of in terms of volume, and you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>conventional wisdom for decades has been, you know, you can't

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<v Speaker 1>just have one comedy on an island. You've got to

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<v Speaker 1>have a you've got to have an environment. And CBS

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<v Speaker 1>still seems to be kind of the last that still

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<v Speaker 1>has that has that environment, although you know each network

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<v Speaker 1>does have a few, but CBS seems to be Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think comedy is really seen as very specific culturally,

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<v Speaker 2>and in a world where we're looking at global distribution

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<v Speaker 2>for so many of these titles, it's just a harder sell.

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<v Speaker 3>And interesting like Netflix has had a it's been a

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<v Speaker 3>buzzy hit. I haven't actually looked at the numbers, but

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<v Speaker 3>buzzy hit with National Treasure Ted Danson A Man on

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<v Speaker 3>the Inside, and that's a remake of a I can't

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<v Speaker 3>it's a I believe from Eastern Europe there was a

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<v Speaker 3>form of French. I think you're a French series or

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<v Speaker 3>remake and I wonder if that you know that, especially

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<v Speaker 3>as you know kind of it his play in the

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<v Speaker 3>Awards game. I wonder if that could be a model,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, see if streamers will see, like maybe take

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<v Speaker 3>the elements, the bones of comedies that are working in

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<v Speaker 3>other places and try to adapt them for us and

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<v Speaker 3>vice versa. I mean, that's not a new phenomenon, but

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<v Speaker 3>I wonder if there will be you'll see more of that,

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<v Speaker 3>because my goodness, we do need laughs.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 4>What I think may have helped fill in the gap

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<v Speaker 4>with comedy is maybe unscripted, even though we've also seen

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<v Speaker 4>unscripted yeah, declients, but yeah, I think things like Love

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<v Speaker 4>Is Blind or The Real Housewives, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 4>people laugh at yeah, a lot of those things as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Sometimes you laugh with, but sometimes.

0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 4>You laugh at for sure.

0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 2>And unscripted, I think is a really interesting thing for

0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:21.200
<v Speaker 2>us to talk about because we've seen where this you know,

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.440
<v Speaker 2>during the strikes, unscripted was one of those things that

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.800
<v Speaker 2>was protected. Yeah, but when we look at the actual data,

0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 2>we had declines in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty

0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 2>four for unscripted year over year, we're looking at eight

0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 2>percent drop and unscripted across broadcast, cable and streaming, And

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 2>I think what's going on there. My personal take is

0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:49.560
<v Speaker 2>that we have It's not that we've exhausted ideas, but

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:55.199
<v Speaker 2>unscripted reality program in particular is so concept driven, and

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 2>you have got to have that innovation of concepts. And

0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 2>if you look at the top show the unscripted shows,

0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.640
<v Speaker 2>you've got Love is Blind, Love Island, a lot of

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:13.040
<v Speaker 2>shows around Connection is So Angry. Oh stopped me in

0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 2>my tracks. If you wanted the talkings to you, I'm.

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 3>Sorry, don't go anywhere.

0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 1>We'll be right back with more insights from luminates Markobick

0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>and Carolyn Finger right after this break, and we're back

0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 1>with the rest of our conversation about the year that

0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 1>was in twenty twenty four with illuminates Markobick and Carolyn Finger.

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:44.440
<v Speaker 4>It's hard to understand why unscripted is declined, but one

0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.080
<v Speaker 4>of the things, you know, speaking what you're saying Mark

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 4>about it's so format driven, all of those kinds of

0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 4>just little snippets of schadenfreude like you can get on

0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.600
<v Speaker 4>short form content. Oh true, you know. I think maybe

0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 4>some specific influence have kind of filled in.

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 2>I think social media is part of that fix of

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:13.800
<v Speaker 2>seeing real people misbehaving or what have you, and that

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 2>is something that you can get on TikTok and for

0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 2>now and Instagram in various places.

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>Right, yeah, no, it's it's really interesting another you know,

0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 1>in the continuing with the down trend here animation also,

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.640
<v Speaker 1>I saw you know, big decline, and you would have

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:30.840
<v Speaker 1>thought that that would have been.

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 3>A little more strike resilient from that impact.

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 4>But well, for the I think sag aren't the many

0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:43.680
<v Speaker 4>of those actors in stories, so I'm assuming that's why

0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.840
<v Speaker 4>they weren't able to do that. But also it does

0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 4>seem as though from a production standpoint, there's so much

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:55.280
<v Speaker 4>competition for access to animation studios and the production timeline

0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 4>is so much longer that that could maybe have played

0:15:58.560 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 4>a role as well.

0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 3>And then say, time we have seen animated features, they've

0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.440
<v Speaker 3>had some real home runs. So maybe it's just kind

0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.440
<v Speaker 3>of a world. You know, we've all known that, you know,

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:12.680
<v Speaker 3>Fox for whatever reason kind of has that magic magic

0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 3>wand on the adult animation, and virtually everybody else that

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 3>has tried it, virtually everybody else has really has really struggled.

0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 3>So it really does seem like it's a you know,

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:27.040
<v Speaker 3>a feature, a feature animation for family audiences and and

0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:31.520
<v Speaker 3>you know, it just doesn't translate to two series anymore.

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 3>I wanted one thing that really also in the report

0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 3>stands out. You do beautiful job of kind of laying

0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:42.200
<v Speaker 3>it out Star Wars fatigue people. I mean, it's very

0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:43.840
<v Speaker 3>it's very clear, and that's you know, that's got to

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.160
<v Speaker 3>be a concern for Disney because that lucasfilm that has

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 3>been a real, real pillar of their strategy there. Now

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 3>as soon as we say that, they could have a

0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:54.280
<v Speaker 3>show that comes out, you know, comes out next month

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.040
<v Speaker 3>and all of a sudden, we're not talking about it.

0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 3>But both on the feature side, that's been very well

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 3>documented and on. But the viewership declining for season twos

0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.520
<v Speaker 3>and things is really significant.

0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:07.919
<v Speaker 2>I think the franchise fatigue is really interesting. That's one

0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 2>of my favorite parts of the report as well. You know,

0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:15.480
<v Speaker 2>when we look at some of the biggest franchises in streaming,

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:20.040
<v Speaker 2>franchises are incredibly important to the streamers in particular because

0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 2>this issue of really having a universe that people can

0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:28.199
<v Speaker 2>access relatively quickly. But if we look at Lord of

0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:30.879
<v Speaker 2>the Rings, the Rings of Power season one, which was

0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:34.359
<v Speaker 2>released in twenty twenty two, the twenty twenty four second

0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:39.240
<v Speaker 2>season did not perform nearly as well. Similarly, for Marvel,

0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:43.800
<v Speaker 2>we know that Agatha all Along, which I personally really enjoyed,

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 2>and Echo performed under twenty twenty three releases, Low Key

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.800
<v Speaker 2>Season two and Secret Invasion.

0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 4>And it really.

0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:59.680
<v Speaker 2>Speaks to the importance of franchise management for these media companies,

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 2>and if they are spread too thin, if they're doing

0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:06.520
<v Speaker 2>too many things that are not really focused on these franchises,

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:10.119
<v Speaker 2>you can get to a place where you're just not

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:14.960
<v Speaker 2>going to get the same result. And it's unfortunate something

0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:19.760
<v Speaker 2>like The Rings of Power again really enjoyed it. Fifty

0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.919
<v Speaker 2>eight million dollars per episode. They've spent almost a billion

0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.040
<v Speaker 2>dollars off the two seasons that have been released thus far.

0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:28.440
<v Speaker 4>Beautifully shot.

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.440
<v Speaker 2>I know you have some thoughts about.

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.920
<v Speaker 4>For me, it was you know, I'm a nerd. I

0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:39.360
<v Speaker 4>you know, I love my Hobbits. It just somehow it

0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.280
<v Speaker 4>was too densely plotted for me or something, which is

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:44.359
<v Speaker 4>that's saying a lot after reading the two towels.

0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:51.000
<v Speaker 3>Yes, one of the starkest pages in their report is

0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:54.840
<v Speaker 3>the share of original viewing chart. I mean, it makes

0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.879
<v Speaker 3>it Crystal Claire. Not that there was much doubt, but

0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.320
<v Speaker 3>you know, now we have the pie charts. If there's

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:04.600
<v Speaker 3>a pipe chart, it's official. There's Netflix and there's everyone else.

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:09.600
<v Speaker 3>For original streaming content to share, Netflix to share is

0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 3>sixty three point five percent. Literally the rest of the

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 3>competition combined doesn't even come out for originals for originals,

0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.159
<v Speaker 3>which you know, which is such a huge part of this,

0:19:21.520 --> 0:19:22.879
<v Speaker 3>such a huge part of the marketplace.

0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:28.320
<v Speaker 4>I think Netflix defines an audience differently than all of

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.359
<v Speaker 4>their competitors, except for maybe Prime, but you know, Prime

0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:36.919
<v Speaker 4>is there to feed the Amazon machine and does that

0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 4>pretty effectively. You know, Netflix is looking I don't think

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.760
<v Speaker 4>they're looking at like an audience. I think they're looking

0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:49.360
<v Speaker 4>at kind of the world, and so they don't feel

0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:51.520
<v Speaker 4>as though they have to have something that fits into

0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:55.040
<v Speaker 4>a particular brand. I mean that's just my you know,

0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.640
<v Speaker 4>kind of armchair thing. I feel like Apple TV they

0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.520
<v Speaker 4>have a more boutique kind of a pro coach to

0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:04.640
<v Speaker 4>TV and a more boutique audience. True, but bless them

0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:07.040
<v Speaker 4>for it, you know, I would say, like, for me,

0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 4>the big surprise in some ways is Max. I don't

0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:14.360
<v Speaker 4>want to pick on anybody, but I'm you know, I

0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:18.240
<v Speaker 4>remember that a certain CEO was brought in from the

0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:20.880
<v Speaker 4>cable world, and there had been a lot of success

0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:25.520
<v Speaker 4>with a lot of unscripted franchises, and the brands have

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:30.119
<v Speaker 4>been a bit diluted, and HBO has always been speaking

0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:35.120
<v Speaker 4>of boutiques. So there just isn't enough there to propel

0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:39.199
<v Speaker 4>its audience share. But I think to me, in some

0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:41.560
<v Speaker 4>ways they're the most vulnerable of all of these.

0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.800
<v Speaker 2>My my takeaway is that when we look at the pie,

0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:48.359
<v Speaker 2>what's really interesting. I think Netflix and Prime sort of

0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:50.240
<v Speaker 2>we expect to see those in one and two, but

0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:54.440
<v Speaker 2>that we see from an original content perspective, Paramount Plus

0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 2>is in third position, and Apple TV is in fourth position,

0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:03.639
<v Speaker 2>followed by Who and then Disney Plus. It's really interesting

0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:06.199
<v Speaker 2>because you think of Disney Plus and all of the

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:09.480
<v Speaker 2>content there, but just from an original title perspective, they

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.720
<v Speaker 2>just haven't released that many titles in twenty twenty four.

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and Prime is you know, Prime is second at

0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:19.480
<v Speaker 1>eight point five percent, Like I just that's sixty three

0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:21.600
<v Speaker 1>that's sixty three point five percent.

0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:22.520
<v Speaker 4>Is very overwhelming.

0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:26.359
<v Speaker 3>It is interesting, and you know, following along that in

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:31.119
<v Speaker 3>terms of other surprises, it was a surprise to me

0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 3>and I watched this stuff and cover this stuff every day.

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:35.040
<v Speaker 3>It was a surprise to.

0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:39.400
<v Speaker 1>Me that Fool Me Once was Netflix's top title based

0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 1>on the Harlan Coben book. And I know he has

0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 1>a massive and I believe, you know, maybe not worldwide,

0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 1>but it has international fans, and I got to believe

0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:51.240
<v Speaker 1>that that fandom, yeah, helped helped drive and he's a

0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:54.560
<v Speaker 1>very well established author with a real a really specific

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 1>brand of storytelling. But you would not I would not

0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:01.959
<v Speaker 1>have cited that as the number one did that? But

0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:04.200
<v Speaker 1>I know that you've crunched the numbers on a week

0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:06.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, daily and weekly basis. But did that in

0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:10.399
<v Speaker 1>that year end sense? Did that really? Did that stand

0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:12.040
<v Speaker 1>out to you as kind of a surprise that that

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:14.680
<v Speaker 1>would at year end that was the big show. Now,

0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:18.080
<v Speaker 1>as I understand, Squid Game may have knocked it off

0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:20.880
<v Speaker 1>its perch now that now that it's been out for.

0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:26.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, for tea English language also.

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:29.719
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, we're only doing ro only measuring English language

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:32.480
<v Speaker 2>in this particular study. So you know, Fool Me Once

0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:35.480
<v Speaker 2>they also had the benefit of premier in January first,

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:39.080
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four, it had the whole year. And what's

0:22:39.160 --> 0:22:42.640
<v Speaker 2>interesting is when we look at that top ten list, yes,

0:22:43.200 --> 0:22:45.680
<v Speaker 2>seven of those titles are Netflix. But when we look

0:22:45.720 --> 0:22:49.080
<v Speaker 2>at the other three with them that top ten land

0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:56.440
<v Speaker 2>Man on Paramount Pair plus Taylor Sheridan, Yes, you love this.

0:22:58.080 --> 0:22:59.440
<v Speaker 4>I can't believe it's out in the world.

0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:04.679
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, but even among the Taylor Sheridan shows, it

0:23:04.760 --> 0:23:07.680
<v Speaker 3>wasn't among the most talked about, which is interesting because

0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:10.320
<v Speaker 3>the interest that that chart, there's a gap between like

0:23:10.520 --> 0:23:13.199
<v Speaker 3>the cool factor and buzz factor. And of course we

0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:15.160
<v Speaker 3>are in a bubble, we are in the creative community bus.

0:23:15.359 --> 0:23:17.919
<v Speaker 1>But I didn't hear so many people talking about it,

0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:22.080
<v Speaker 1>but obviously America and Canada. Yeah, there's kind of.

0:23:22.040 --> 0:23:24.280
<v Speaker 4>Like the People's Choice Awards. You know, it doesn't line

0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:26.800
<v Speaker 4>up usually with the oscars, but it does tell you

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.760
<v Speaker 4>about what the broader audience is responding to.

0:23:30.400 --> 0:23:33.760
<v Speaker 2>And keep in mind that Landman didn't not all episodes

0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:35.399
<v Speaker 2>had been released by the time we got to the

0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:38.600
<v Speaker 2>end of the year, So we're doing that without all

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:42.120
<v Speaker 2>episodes being available, which is a tremendous accomplishment.

0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:45.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he is, Taylor sharedon got to give to him.

0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 4>He is tapping into some fortant. I mean, he just

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:51.560
<v Speaker 4>I mean, you know, John Ham like has great cast

0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:54.800
<v Speaker 4>and has enough like there's a great balance of absurdity

0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:59.159
<v Speaker 4>and yet truth. Somehow that's what's.

0:23:58.880 --> 0:24:00.960
<v Speaker 2>Any Tulsa King is number five in the list.

0:24:01.080 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 3>So with that's off, Yeah, let's close out our discussion

0:24:04.840 --> 0:24:06.960
<v Speaker 3>here with the subject of a topic that is kind

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:09.640
<v Speaker 3>of appropriate to the world that we're living in right now.

0:24:10.160 --> 0:24:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Horror. Yes, but there's a lot of interesting data in

0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:17.400
<v Speaker 1>there about how it's a clear box office driver and

0:24:17.440 --> 0:24:21.040
<v Speaker 1>it is also, you know, very efficient box office because budgets,

0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, versus like a blockbuster movie or even a

0:24:23.840 --> 0:24:26.200
<v Speaker 1>big animated feature like they can you know, they can

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:29.400
<v Speaker 1>really do horror on a beer budget and get champagne

0:24:29.400 --> 0:24:30.040
<v Speaker 1>box office.

0:24:30.200 --> 0:24:33.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Well, horror is one of those genres

0:24:33.320 --> 0:24:37.120
<v Speaker 2>that has a built in fan base that is very

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:41.119
<v Speaker 2>committed to showing up and seeing those titles in theaters,

0:24:41.320 --> 0:24:46.160
<v Speaker 2>and they're also reliably profitable, and that's a heady combination. Now,

0:24:46.400 --> 0:24:48.880
<v Speaker 2>when we look at the budget for a film, we're

0:24:48.920 --> 0:24:52.600
<v Speaker 2>typically looking for box office to be two point five

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:55.879
<v Speaker 2>times the budget for it to really be considered a success,

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:59.320
<v Speaker 2>and then anything above that can lead to a runaway hit.

0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:06.040
<v Speaker 2>When we look at the top ten highest grossing horror

0:25:06.040 --> 0:25:09.159
<v Speaker 2>films from twenty twenty four in their budgets. What's interesting

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:14.080
<v Speaker 2>is that we see things like the Substance. The production

0:25:14.119 --> 0:25:17.600
<v Speaker 2>budget on that was seventeen million dollars and a bit

0:25:17.640 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 2>more than that, the box office was over seventy seven million,

0:25:21.480 --> 0:25:25.440
<v Speaker 2>So just a tremendous success. And we see that again

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 2>and again. Alien Romulus also highly profitable, A quiet Place

0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.600
<v Speaker 2>Day One very profitable. So it's just the gift that

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:36.720
<v Speaker 2>keeps on giving these two and the Substance.

0:25:37.080 --> 0:25:40.320
<v Speaker 3>Nobody on the planet, on the surface, even with Demimore,

0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:43.320
<v Speaker 3>nobody on the planet would have said, yep, that's going

0:25:43.400 --> 0:25:46.720
<v Speaker 3>to get five Oscar nominations. That also was really was

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:52.560
<v Speaker 3>really telling. But great work is great work is rewarded. Actually,

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 3>I really want to close with a question that tacks

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:59.000
<v Speaker 3>back to the way things work. I'm still I still

0:25:59.040 --> 0:26:03.119
<v Speaker 3>have a harder time wrapping my head around millions or

0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:07.359
<v Speaker 3>billions of minutes viewed versus old fashioned ratings and share

0:26:08.280 --> 0:26:11.600
<v Speaker 3>what do you think in terms of from your experience

0:26:11.600 --> 0:26:16.879
<v Speaker 3>as researchers, the focus on minutes versus ratings, which were

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:20.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, translated by demographic and everything they were.

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:22.480
<v Speaker 1>I think it was just what I grew up with.

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:26.679
<v Speaker 1>But what is do you think is tracking the minutes viewed?

0:26:26.760 --> 0:26:29.160
<v Speaker 1>Is that a better measure? Is that a more accurate

0:26:29.760 --> 0:26:33.000
<v Speaker 1>yardstick or is it just a different form of you know,

0:26:33.040 --> 0:26:35.320
<v Speaker 1>it's just a different form of ratings.

0:26:35.400 --> 0:26:38.760
<v Speaker 2>I am very passionate about this, you know. So I

0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:44.159
<v Speaker 2>think minutes watched is a really it's a really inaccurate

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:48.840
<v Speaker 2>way of measuring success because it rewards longer form content.

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:53.840
<v Speaker 2>So comedies, which traditionally are shorter, are always at a

0:26:53.880 --> 0:26:56.879
<v Speaker 2>disadvantage in that world. If we're just talking about television

0:26:57.400 --> 0:27:00.840
<v Speaker 2>the real way, and this is the streamer are coalescing

0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:06.720
<v Speaker 2>around this as well. A more accurate measurement of success

0:27:06.800 --> 0:27:10.960
<v Speaker 2>is views, and that is simply taking the total minutes

0:27:11.040 --> 0:27:14.000
<v Speaker 2>watch and dividing that by the runtime. And that's something

0:27:14.000 --> 0:27:17.960
<v Speaker 2>that we actually provide through our SPM product, But our

0:27:18.040 --> 0:27:23.320
<v Speaker 2>rankings are still measured based off of minutes watch. So yeah,

0:27:23.440 --> 0:27:23.919
<v Speaker 2>I hear you.

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, It's kind of like, you know, the news used

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:31.440
<v Speaker 4>to be packaged in a very specific way, and you

0:27:31.600 --> 0:27:34.239
<v Speaker 4>only kind of saw the news that was presented to you,

0:27:34.440 --> 0:27:37.240
<v Speaker 4>and now it's like we see, you know, the ticker

0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:39.640
<v Speaker 4>tape of everything in real time. And I think that's

0:27:39.720 --> 0:27:42.280
<v Speaker 4>kind of what minutes is where you can see everyone

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:46.160
<v Speaker 4>who's tuned in for one minute and you know, decided

0:27:46.240 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 4>to click on something else.

0:27:48.240 --> 0:27:51.760
<v Speaker 1>What's the holy grail that you as researchers that you

0:27:51.880 --> 0:27:54.040
<v Speaker 1>can't get your hands on, but you'd love to In

0:27:54.119 --> 0:27:59.920
<v Speaker 1>terms of data, data about shows, data about viewing, viewership, engagement.

0:28:00.000 --> 0:28:03.199
<v Speaker 4>It's first party data, it's party data. It's what we

0:28:03.240 --> 0:28:03.760
<v Speaker 4>all want.

0:28:04.280 --> 0:28:06.200
<v Speaker 1>Listen up, streamers, Yeah.

0:28:06.240 --> 0:28:09.199
<v Speaker 4>Listen up. And you know I will say, you know,

0:28:09.240 --> 0:28:10.400
<v Speaker 4>there is a light at the end of.

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:12.840
<v Speaker 2>The tunnel because I'm not at liberty to kind of

0:28:12.880 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 2>talk about those companies, but we are in active talks

0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:19.640
<v Speaker 2>with certain streamers to actually share first party data. And

0:28:19.920 --> 0:28:23.000
<v Speaker 2>that is if you had asked me two years ago

0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:27.200
<v Speaker 2>when we were first building SBM, if this were a possibility,

0:28:27.200 --> 0:28:28.919
<v Speaker 2>I would have told you they're never going to share.

0:28:29.320 --> 0:28:31.439
<v Speaker 2>But I do believe that a day in the future

0:28:31.480 --> 0:28:34.640
<v Speaker 2>we will have first party data and that will change everything.

0:28:34.680 --> 0:28:37.639
<v Speaker 2>Will really have transparency there, and that'll be good.

0:28:37.480 --> 0:28:39.840
<v Speaker 4>For the industry. And I would say, on top of that,

0:28:40.080 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 4>accurate demographic data based on kind of all devices, because

0:28:45.400 --> 0:28:47.600
<v Speaker 4>we don't really have a great line of sight on

0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:52.600
<v Speaker 4>who's watching everything and how they're watching it, and that's

0:28:52.640 --> 0:28:54.480
<v Speaker 4>the secret to getting the young.

0:28:56.400 --> 0:28:58.480
<v Speaker 1>I would like to throw in there that I'm always

0:28:58.560 --> 0:29:01.640
<v Speaker 1>I've always enjoyed looking at regional data. You know, what

0:29:01.800 --> 0:29:02.080
<v Speaker 1>is the.

0:29:02.040 --> 0:29:05.080
<v Speaker 3>Southwest watching versus what is the Northwest? And that that

0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 3>just seems to be more and more elusive, elusive, or

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 3>it just won't you know, they won't, they won't divulge it,

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:11.960
<v Speaker 3>and that.

0:29:12.240 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 4>It is now like Southeast Asia.

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:17.200
<v Speaker 1>Right exactly, Let's narrow it down a little bit.

0:29:17.360 --> 0:29:21.520
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, well, this has been a fun, fun conversation

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:24.520
<v Speaker 3>with two people who know their stuff right and left

0:29:24.560 --> 0:29:27.400
<v Speaker 3>and upside down and backwards. Thank you so much. I

0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:29.320
<v Speaker 3>really appreciate it. I really appreciate all your work and

0:29:29.360 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 3>the you know, ability to bring some sense of what's

0:29:32.960 --> 0:29:35.040
<v Speaker 3>you know, what's actually going on out there. We don't

0:29:35.080 --> 0:29:37.040
<v Speaker 3>have to just take their word for it. Thank you

0:29:37.160 --> 0:29:38.600
<v Speaker 3>so much for legend.

0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:44.680
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, thanks for listening. Be sure to leave us

0:29:44.720 --> 0:29:48.320
<v Speaker 1>a review at Apple Podcasts or Amazon Music. We love

0:29:48.480 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 1>to hear from listeners. Please go to Variety dot com

0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:55.560
<v Speaker 1>and sign up for the free weekly Strictly Business newsletter,

0:29:56.040 --> 0:29:58.880
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0:29:58.960 --> 0:30:00.440
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