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Speaker 2: Let's get back to the trade story, which remains front
Speaker 2: and center here. It seems like we're in a period
Speaker 2: where negotiations are happening between the Trump administration and a
Speaker 2: number of different countries over a number of different teriff
Speaker 2: measures here. So it's important to try to stay on
Speaker 2: top of kind of where we are, and we have
Speaker 2: a good team doing that. Brenda Murray joins US Global
Speaker 2: Trade editor for Bloomberg News. He's in London, Brendan, it
Speaker 2: seems like the president over the next several weeks, is
Speaker 2: it fair to expect that we'll get some announcements on
Speaker 2: trade deals with some of our major trading partners.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it depends on what you mean by a
Speaker 3: deal to say that we're likely to get a number
Speaker 3: of announcements laying out the path for talks for an
Speaker 3: eventual deal. Trade deals are very complicated. They take a
Speaker 3: long time to hammer out and to get anything meaningful,
Speaker 3: it's going to take a lot of time. But what
Speaker 3: you could see are some sort of interim proposals, interim
Speaker 3: agreements that would would set the US and the trading
Speaker 3: partner on that course. Some of those who are sort
Speaker 3: of have an early lead would be India, South Korea, Japan.
Speaker 3: These are big export economies that the US wants to
Speaker 3: trade more with to reduce the tariff and non tariff
Speaker 3: barriers that they have with the US economy. So we
Speaker 3: could see we could see some action along those lines.
Speaker 3: But again, to expect anything major, anything fundamentally changing the
Speaker 3: picture of the US trade imbalances like Donald Trump would
Speaker 3: like to see, is probably a bit of wishful thinking.
Speaker 4: Now, Bertie, you said Treasury Secretary Scott bet And said,
Speaker 4: the administration working on them by lateral trade deal with
Speaker 4: seventeen key partners, but not including China. So where does
Speaker 4: China stand in all this?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well this is the big you know, this is
Speaker 3: the big This is the big prize, right, is some
Speaker 3: sort of deal with China. And if if the US
Speaker 3: and China aren't even talking and by all accounts according
Speaker 3: to that they've not really having any sort of formal
Speaker 3: discussions that would lead in the right direction toward a
Speaker 3: formal sit down discussion that you know, you're leaving out
Speaker 3: a big part of the imbalance, the big, you know,
Speaker 3: the biggest imbalance that the US has. So you can
Speaker 3: talk trade deals with Japan and South Korea and India
Speaker 3: and other countries, but the real prize is that Donald
Speaker 3: Trump wants is a trade deal with China, and so
Speaker 3: far they're going nowhere.
Speaker 2: I'm that, you know, David Rosenberg, a frequent guest on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance formerly Merrill Lynch. He's and he's a Canadian,
Speaker 2: and out with a tweet saying basically, hey, everybody, I
Speaker 2: know you're focused on China, but you need to figure
Speaker 2: out something with Canada because Canada is the big trading
Speaker 2: partner with the US, as is Mexico.
Speaker 5: Where do we stand. Do you think with Canada and Mexico?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the Canadians don't sound like they're of course
Speaker 3: they're in there. You know, they're in the middle of
Speaker 3: an election right now, and they don't they don't sound
Speaker 3: like they're in any big hurry to do a deal.
Speaker 3: The Prime Minister Mark Karney said the other day we'd
Speaker 3: rather have a good deal rather than a fast deal.
Speaker 3: So we'll see how that election plays out. That could
Speaker 3: that could dictate the course of of of any negotiations.
Speaker 3: But you know, in the meantime, the Canadian economy is
Speaker 3: going to suffer. American auto companies are going to suffer
Speaker 3: because they rely so much on Canadian suppliers. So you
Speaker 3: could look for a lot more disruption the longer that
Speaker 3: drags out with the cloud of uncertainty hanging over it,
Speaker 3: as it has for several weeks.
Speaker 4: And but what about the big company. Let's say Walmarts
Speaker 4: and Targets are retailers. They have to replenish their inventories.
Speaker 4: Where do they stand in all this?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is a big story we have out
Speaker 3: today is that retailers like Walmart and Target, the big
Speaker 3: ones and small companies are looking at those one hundred
Speaker 3: and forty five percent tariffs on goods from China and saying,
Speaker 3: we can't do that, we can't afford that. That's twice,
Speaker 3: well more than twice what we could pay. So we're
Speaker 3: just canceling orders from China. And so what we're seeing
Speaker 3: is in a couple of weeks when those orders would
Speaker 3: have already gotten here. We're going to see volumes through
Speaker 3: US ports go down. We're going to see inventories through
Speaker 3: warehouses go down, and in the big retailers have even
Speaker 3: said privately to President Trump, according to our reporting, that
Speaker 3: you know, this could be this could mean shortages and
Speaker 3: price hikes. So the wave of decoupling that is underway
Speaker 3: between China and the US hasn't really hit the real economy.
Speaker 3: Right now, we hear the administration say, oh, well, you know,
Speaker 3: Wall Street has had a good run. It's time for
Speaker 3: us to focus on Main Street. We'll main streets about
Speaker 3: ready to get hit with some of this, and unless
Speaker 3: things change fast, then we're going to start seeing it
Speaker 3: in in a lot of in some layoffs in in
Speaker 3: industries like trucking and logistics and warehousing where really the
Speaker 3: rubber meets the road between trade and the US economy.
Speaker 5: Are we past the point of no return?
Speaker 2: Brendan, in terms of some of the economic damage that
Speaker 2: could be done, you know, in terms of supply chain
Speaker 2: not getting the stuff that we typically get.
Speaker 5: Well in the short in the short run.
Speaker 3: If President Trump announced later today that which nobody would
Speaker 3: expect this, that he was he was freezing all tariffs
Speaker 3: and we were gonna this was gonna be he was
Speaker 3: going to try to do this another way. If he
Speaker 3: kind of backpedaled on everything, we'd still have a supply whiplash.
Speaker 3: All those canceled orders would be placed again, and we
Speaker 3: would have, you know, the volumes surging through US ports.
Speaker 3: And we saw during the pandemic what happens when when
Speaker 3: the the nodes of of supply change get bogged down.
Speaker 3: Is we had one hundred and twenty ships parked outside
Speaker 3: the port of Long Beach in Los Angeles. So that's
Speaker 3: the kind of thing. Most people don't think it's going
Speaker 3: to happen on that kind of scale, but the system
Speaker 3: can't handle big declines or surges in volumes, and that's
Speaker 3: what we're looking at over the next several weeks or
Speaker 3: a few months.
Speaker 2: All right, Brendan, thank you so much for joining us Avius.
Speaker 2: Appreciate getting your reporting. That's Brendan Murray, a Global trade
Speaker 2: editor for Bloomberg News joining us from London. And again
Speaker 2: there's some reporting out of Bloomberg and others over the weekend,
Speaker 2: just simply the volume of ships leaving Chinese ports setting
Speaker 2: sail for presumably the west coast of the US, and
Speaker 2: we often talk to Gene Soroca, who runs the Port
Speaker 2: of Los Angeles on Long Beach. We'll search to get
Speaker 2: back in touch with them in the next couple of days.
Speaker 2: But some of those sailings have declined dramatically just in
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. So perhaps that's reflecting what
Speaker 2: was Brendan was suggesting, was maybe some canceled orders from
Speaker 2: some US wholesalers and retailers.
Speaker 5: Will stay on top of that story.
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Speaker 2: All right, big earnings week out there for the S
Speaker 2: ANDP five hundred. We have twenty trillion dollars in market cap.
Speaker 5: It's going to report earnings this week. That is big.
Speaker 5: We had about eleven billion last week.
Speaker 2: And some of the big companies that can report and
Speaker 2: are the technology companies, and you really want to get
Speaker 2: a handle on kind of how they're.
Speaker 5: Viewing the world these days. So we asked a couple
Speaker 5: of the smart folks that we know to to join
Speaker 5: us here.
Speaker 2: Anurag Rana Man Deep singing their senior technology channels for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. Honra joins us from Chicago, and Mandeep is
Speaker 2: in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio Man Deal.
Speaker 5: Let me start with you here.
Speaker 2: I mean, just given what you've heard so far from
Speaker 2: some of the big tech companies and what you expect
Speaker 2: this week, how is how are some of the companies,
Speaker 2: these big technology companies, which had been real drivers for
Speaker 2: the stock market, how are they kind of saying they're
Speaker 2: seeing the world out there these days?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I think in the case of Meta, I mean clearly
Speaker 7: they are exposed to the deminimous rule where companies in
Speaker 7: China can't really ship any products below eight hundred dollars anymore.
Speaker 7: And that was a big driver of ad spending from
Speaker 7: Timu and Chain and some of these advertisers. So that's
Speaker 7: going to impact Meta. We saw in the case of Alphabet,
Speaker 7: the click ads grew only two percent, the pricing was
Speaker 7: relatively stable. So I think in the case of Meta,
Speaker 7: the ad pricing may come under more pressure compared to
Speaker 7: an alphabet, and the ad impressions may be better than alphabet.
Speaker 7: So because of the FTC case against Meta and similarly
Speaker 7: for Alphabet. These companies have regulatory pressures as well, but
Speaker 7: there is no doubt that the macro environment has changed
Speaker 7: for the worse. And I don't see, you know, even
Speaker 7: though the impact would show up more in two Q,
Speaker 7: I don't see how they guide better than they did
Speaker 7: in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 4: What about AI spend? How much of an impact is
Speaker 4: that going to have? Are the investors going to be
Speaker 4: looking to that?
Speaker 7: So Meta raised their CAPEX the last time they reported
Speaker 7: to sixty five billion, and in between there was news
Speaker 7: that Meta is looking for an Amazon and Microsoft to
Speaker 7: share some of that capex because they have an open
Speaker 7: source model. So I think they're under pressure to kind
Speaker 7: of cut back on the CAPEX or the reality lab spend.
Speaker 7: But so far no one has pulled back on AI
Speaker 7: capex given you are still in a supply constrained environment
Speaker 7: when it comes to the GPUs and overall AI infrastructure.
Speaker 7: So it'll be interesting to see what they end up doing.
Speaker 2: Hey, Anurag, you know, I kind of think with even
Speaker 2: within technology, which is such a great growth story and
Speaker 2: can batter some slowdowns, I think of the software companies
Speaker 2: that you cover is kind of maybe one of the
Speaker 2: safer places to be within technology. What do you expect
Speaker 2: to hear from the Microsoft's of the world.
Speaker 6: Yes, you know, on a relative basis, I think you're
Speaker 6: right about that. But at the same time, they do
Speaker 6: have an impact on the second degree demand. If the
Speaker 6: enterprise text spending starts to cut down, you know, that
Speaker 6: has an impact on software space as well. So so
Speaker 6: that's the something we will be looking for. But I
Speaker 6: would agree with Mandib that we are not anticipating a
Speaker 6: drop in capex either from Microsoft or AWS later this week,
Speaker 6: because that those are the names that dictate a lot
Speaker 6: in terms of, you know, how AI spend will shape
Speaker 6: up over the next twelve months.
Speaker 2: Where within the text act on a route do you
Speaker 2: think you could see maybe some of the biggest exposure
Speaker 2: to I guess just tariffs and maybe a slowing global economy.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so Apple is going to be in front and
Speaker 6: center over there. There's so much news about you know,
Speaker 6: their ability to move the supply chain that's not that easy.
Speaker 6: We do anticipate some pull forward and demand for them.
Speaker 6: We know the you know, Apple stores were really crowded
Speaker 6: before the tariff date, and you know that that will
Speaker 6: show up in some of the numbers. But the question
Speaker 6: is going to be what kind of guidance can they give,
Speaker 6: and in fact, if they can even give guidance at
Speaker 6: this point, and you know, how if there is a
Speaker 6: big number that goes up on tatifs can they even
Speaker 6: fulfill the demand. So there's going to be a lot
Speaker 6: of noise around that supply chain and what they're doing
Speaker 6: to offset that, both in the near term and in
Speaker 6: the long term.
Speaker 4: And the other big story for today IBM planning to
Speaker 4: invest one hundred and fifty billion in the US over
Speaker 4: the next five years. Mandy, can you break it down
Speaker 4: for us? What does that include? That's a pretty big number.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, look in the case of five AM,
Speaker 7: they are not a big spender on AI capex, so clearly,
Speaker 7: you know, they are looking to expand in terms of
Speaker 7: their own investments, whether it's mainframe related or any other
Speaker 7: type of R and D around quantum. But we've heard
Speaker 7: that from Apple, you know, five hundred billion dollars over
Speaker 7: the next four years. So a lot of these tech
Speaker 7: companies are looking to appease the administration, which is keen
Speaker 7: to you know, bring manufacturing back. Interesting to see where
Speaker 7: IBM sort of thinks about investing the one hundred and
Speaker 7: fifty billion dollars because, as I said, they're not a
Speaker 7: big player when it comes to the AI infrastructure play
Speaker 7: that the other hyperscalers are involved in.
Speaker 2: Hey, an er, guessin you remember a lot of the
Speaker 2: CEOs that you and man deep cover making their way
Speaker 2: to Washington, DC over the last three four months having
Speaker 2: meetings with the President members of administration. Is there a
Speaker 2: sense that they're getting the benefit of that or is
Speaker 2: it having any impact because I'm not sure I see that.
Speaker 6: Well. One could argue that, you know, the smartphone exemptions
Speaker 6: that we got or the consumer electronics may have had
Speaker 6: something to do with it. But we'll find out if
Speaker 6: that can continue or not. But you know, frankly speaking,
Speaker 6: these companies are the ones that are really putting us
Speaker 6: at the forefront. I will be very surprised if we
Speaker 6: see a much more hostile behavior against them. The big
Speaker 6: question is Hasmond you mentioned there are a few antitrust
Speaker 6: cases going across them right now. For a bunch of
Speaker 6: these companies, we'll find out how the administration takes over
Speaker 6: or you know, puts their credibility or the backing behind
Speaker 6: those deals.
Speaker 4: Man, if you mentioned before quantum computing when we were
Speaker 4: talking about IBM, I mean, are we going to be
Speaker 4: hearing more and more of that come in the future,
Speaker 4: because we've been hearing so much about AI. But is
Speaker 4: quantum kind of going to move forward?
Speaker 7: I think at this point, you know, given the macro
Speaker 7: environment we are in, I would focus more on what
Speaker 7: the companies think, as you know, monetizable in the near term.
Speaker 7: Quantum would be further out. At the same time, I mean,
Speaker 7: could you know one to two percent of those CAPEX
Speaker 7: dollars go into quantum, Yes, but the big chunk would
Speaker 7: still be allocated towards AI and you know, specifically inferencing,
Speaker 7: because everyone seems to be quite bullish about the type
Speaker 7: of use cases that are emerging around AI agents and
Speaker 7: what it means for the overall enterprises.
Speaker 2: All Right, fellows, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: Always appreciate getting you guys, particularly when we get you
Speaker 2: guys together on rog Rana. Man deep seeing there to
Speaker 2: two folks that kind of run our global technology research
Speaker 2: effort at Bloomberg Intelligence, and like you have to do.
Speaker 2: Technology is a global business. Therefore you need to have
Speaker 2: expertise on the ground all around the world, and we
Speaker 2: do Asia, Europe, North America. We've got it covered for you,
Speaker 2: and man Deep and on rog run that business for us.
Speaker 2: We appreciate getting a couple of minutes of their time.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a big week for earnings continued big
Speaker 2: week for technology companies to what extent is their business
Speaker 2: be impacted by some of the economic uncertainty that may
Speaker 2: be building out there as a result of maybe some
Speaker 2: uncertain tariff policy issues. So we'll see how that plays
Speaker 2: out this week when you get more again twenty trillion
Speaker 2: dollars in market cap those companies reporting this week.
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Speaker 2: And we've got a lot of economic data, and maybe
Speaker 2: the question is when are we can start seeing some
Speaker 2: of the uncertainty in some of the economic data, whether
Speaker 2: it's GDP or inflation.
Speaker 5: And that kind of thing. So we got attention to that.
Speaker 2: So if you're a professional money manager, there's plenty to
Speaker 2: keep you busy. Kim Farest, founder and chief investment officer
Speaker 2: Bouque Capital Partners Joints this year, Kim, kind of with
Speaker 2: that set up, what do you think is driving socks here?
Speaker 2: Do we earnings or some of this bigger I guess
Speaker 2: economic data issues or is it just what comes out
Speaker 2: of the Twitter account or ex account or of a
Speaker 2: certain president.
Speaker 8: I think all of the above. But here's what I've
Speaker 8: learned from doing this for the past. I can't believe
Speaker 8: that twenty six years of looking at markets is in
Speaker 8: a given day they can really only process one or
Speaker 8: two ideas. I kid you not. If you go back
Speaker 8: to what happened on Friday, you can suss out what
Speaker 8: what drove the market? What was and you look at
Speaker 8: the stocks, and you look at the data that comes
Speaker 8: out and you go, Aha, this is what drove the market.
Speaker 8: So I'm going to make a bold prediction that the
Speaker 8: thing that drove the markets last year clearly was in
Speaker 8: Nvidia and the AI trade. And this week we're going
Speaker 8: to get a little bit more information on whether or
Speaker 8: not the AI trade is dead, and I think the
Speaker 8: answer is no, because we got a sneak peek from
Speaker 8: what happened on Thursday. I think it was Thursday. Every
Speaker 8: day seems like a lifetime anyhow with Google, and Google
Speaker 8: reiterated that they are going to continue spending on their
Speaker 8: AI build out, and so we expect Microsoft, Meta, and
Speaker 8: Amazon to all say the same thing.
Speaker 9: It's actually a very good point. And Kim, I've been
Speaker 9: asking the question all morning are we going to see
Speaker 9: more cost cuts? Because there was a story in the
Speaker 9: Wall Street Journal that said corporate CEOs are like saying
Speaker 9: the market version of the serenity prayer right now. Costs
Speaker 9: are the only thing that they can really control, and
Speaker 9: in the face of total uncertainty, that's the lever they're pulling.
Speaker 9: But I was talking with Gargey chow Duri of Blackrock
Speaker 9: this morning and she said, well, you know what, Google
Speaker 9: didn't cut its capex, so maybe we won't see cutting
Speaker 9: capex from the other hyperscalers. And that's really what's driving
Speaker 9: this market, is that AI trade that that you know,
Speaker 9: we obviously saw so big last year. What about other
Speaker 9: companies though, Kim, are you worried that we're going to
Speaker 9: start seeing especially smaller companies start to fire our employees,
Speaker 9: start to you know, close down stores, start to reduce
Speaker 9: costs wherever they can.
Speaker 8: So the answer is always yes, right for the troubled,
Speaker 8: like Macy's is going to close a store in this
Speaker 8: I don't know how big. It was a huge, huge
Speaker 8: mall and there's only three things it now maybe four
Speaker 8: if you consider the collectibles shop that's in there as well.
Speaker 9: That's amazing business. That's like something it really doesn't.
Speaker 8: But that's I'm painting this right. Joanne Fabrics pulled the
Speaker 8: plug there, but we've got Macy's that is now going
Speaker 8: to pull the plug. Dick's Sporting Goods is going to
Speaker 8: pull the plug. But the township of Frasier has its
Speaker 8: township building in that building. But it's massive. It is
Speaker 8: the hugest, most empty building I've ever seen in my
Speaker 8: entire life. But that is what we get is companies
Speaker 8: that aren't succeeding are going to reshuffle the decks.
Speaker 7: Now Dixon is.
Speaker 8: Doing pretty well, but in that mall, nobody's going to
Speaker 8: the mall. They're going to move somewhere else, no kidding.
Speaker 8: So that goes on all the time. But the I
Speaker 8: would even say smaller companies that are successful are not
Speaker 8: going to just indiscriminately higher. What companies do have right
Speaker 8: now is technology that tells them what the pipeline is
Speaker 8: doing in real time. Most even small companies have a
Speaker 8: CRM system where they can see what demand looks like.
Speaker 8: And I think that is going to drive things, not tweets,
Speaker 8: not you know, headlines. It's going to be what's happening
Speaker 8: with our business. And if your business is sick, you're
Speaker 8: going to make some.
Speaker 5: Cuts, Kim. I mean looking at the S and P.
Speaker 2: I made the comment earlier that depends on kind of
Speaker 2: your glass half end to your half full kind of
Speaker 2: person that you know. The the bad news is that
Speaker 2: the S and p's down, you know, ten percent roughly from.
Speaker 5: Its peak earlier this year.
Speaker 2: The good news is that it's up ten percent from
Speaker 2: the bottom. How do you view kind of the what's
Speaker 2: going on out there in the stock market generally, Well.
Speaker 8: Again, I'm kind of a mathematician, that's my basic training
Speaker 8: was That's what I graduated with a degree in that
Speaker 8: and computer science. So I like to take apart the
Speaker 8: pieces of the S and P. And if I look
Speaker 8: at what was driving the S and P last year
Speaker 8: and pretty much through the end of the year was
Speaker 8: the AI trade. So that's the big mag seven. I
Speaker 8: was going to call them the Big seven mag seven
Speaker 8: and then you know, especially in Vidia. Now Nvidia has
Speaker 8: come down a lot, right, yeah, yeah, so that is
Speaker 8: overweight in the S and P or it was really
Speaker 8: overweight in the S and P five hundred calculation. So
Speaker 8: you have to look at that, and if you look
Speaker 8: at the rest of the S and P five hundred,
Speaker 8: they're really not going all that up or down. Right
Speaker 8: that most of that dip down and dip back up
Speaker 8: was the Magnificent seven and that was the blessing last
Speaker 8: year and it's the curse this year. So you index
Speaker 8: buyers are just going to have to put.
Speaker 5: Up with that.
Speaker 9: It's actually at one point it was down thirty seven percent,
Speaker 9: peaked to trough, you know, with the peak being like
Speaker 9: the very beginning of January and the trough being two
Speaker 9: weeks ago. We've had a pretty powerful rally though over
Speaker 9: the past four days. Today it's you know, looking not
Speaker 9: looking like it's gonna continue.
Speaker 5: But we had.
Speaker 9: The Swig Breadth Thrust indicator triggered for at least the
Speaker 9: eighteenth I've seen three different estimates of how many times
Speaker 9: have been triggered since nineteen forty three, but it's been
Speaker 9: at least eighteen times, and each of those eighteen times, KIM,
Speaker 9: It's resulted in double digit gains on average, like fifteen
Speaker 9: percent six months out and twenty five percent twelve months out.
Speaker 9: Do you put any trust into the swig breadth thrust indicator,
Speaker 9: which basically just says NYC stocks only, I think forty
Speaker 9: percent of them were at new highs, and then within
Speaker 9: ten days sixty one and a half.
Speaker 5: Percent of them were at new hives. Totally clear.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so I'm going to use one of my favorite
Speaker 8: phrases that I think irritate people. That's interesting but irrelevant
Speaker 8: because the truth is a lot. And remember, I'm a
Speaker 8: math person. I used to be an AI person, which
Speaker 8: is math. I love math, but it tells me what
Speaker 8: happened in the past, not what's going to happen in
Speaker 8: the future. And there's so much that can happen in
Speaker 8: the future, like deals, tariff deals signed not signed, wars
Speaker 8: not wars, you know, just everyday life. That doesn't necessarily
Speaker 8: let you with assurance know what's going to happen to
Speaker 8: your stocks in the future. So I'm I'm cheered by this.
Speaker 8: If that happens, go whatever, indicator, But I'm not gonna
Speaker 8: you know, run my money based on it.
Speaker 9: I was excited last week about It's the swig Martin
Speaker 9: Swig and the swag breadth thrust indicators.
Speaker 2: All right, put that out on social media. I'm sure
Speaker 2: that I got a lot of hits. Kim Forrest, thank
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us. Chimis founder and chief
Speaker 2: investment officer of Bouquet Capital Partners.
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