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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our week fourteenth, Thursday NFL episode. If I

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Speaker 1: look like I'm in a different place, If I sound

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Speaker 1: a little bit funny, I apologize. I am in a

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Speaker 1: hotel in Las Vegas doing the podcast early in the

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Speaker 1: morning to get everything you need to get ready for

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Speaker 1: the weekend. In this episode, we will get feedback from

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Speaker 1: the wise guys who listen to the show. We will

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Speaker 1: make our survivor pick and build our money line Underdog

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Speaker 1: Round Robin. We're going to give out our Foxhole. We're

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Speaker 1: going to give out our big Balls bet of the week.

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Speaker 1: We will narrow down our picks for the free to

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Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick

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Speaker 1: Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard likes to say,

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Speaker 1: there's a ce of money out.

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Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

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Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website. Favorites

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Speaker 1: at actionetwork dot com, whit and we lock them in

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Speaker 1: before kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using the

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Speaker 1: award winning Action app, you can also track all the

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Speaker 1: bets Simon and I lock in by following two accounts

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Speaker 1: to Phase five and the Favorites podcast. Now, let's bring

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Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, MI compadre, my BFF,

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, swim in. I'm a little

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Speaker 1: subdued because I'm in a hotel. I'm recording next to

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Speaker 1: the wall of the room next to me because that's

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Speaker 1: where the best light is facing the window, so I

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Speaker 1: can't be as yelly as I would normally be.

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Speaker 2: It's Vegas, baby, you can yell all you want.

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Speaker 1: I guess that's true. Right. The walls are thick as steel,

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Speaker 1: and nobody's awaken eight eight, nobody's sleeping at eight am. No,

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Speaker 1: good to see you, buddy.

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Speaker 2: To be here, Chad. If people can't tell Chad knows this,

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Speaker 2: I am dead. People.

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Speaker 3: I've been traveling, shaking hands with people, and they got me.

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Speaker 2: It finally caught up to me.

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Speaker 3: If at any point I just disappear, no, it's for

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Speaker 3: good reason.

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Speaker 2: I am probably sick.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna give my best effort.

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Speaker 2: Luckily, this week. Not that every week is easy.

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Speaker 3: Mean, Chad hates when I say that, but this week, Honestly,

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Speaker 3: we talked on Tuesday. A lot of the guys who

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Speaker 3: I talked to, I thought they're gonna be on certain sides.

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Speaker 3: They're on those sides, and not much has changed. So

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Speaker 3: I'm looking forward today because there's been a lot of

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Speaker 3: line movement, Chad, so I got a lot of hate

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Speaker 3: on Tuesday show, and a lot of those lines moved

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Speaker 3: in the directions I thought they were gonna move.

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Speaker 1: Luckily, Simon, I am in a city built on the

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Speaker 1: backs of people who like to say, oh it's easy.

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Speaker 1: I am in in Las Vegas. I am in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: As you know. I saw you too last night at

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Speaker 1: the Sphere, which was just insane. Like everything that everybody

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Speaker 1: has said, it is the visuals, the sound, the show

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Speaker 1: just outrageously awesome. But during the day I had lunch

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Speaker 1: with your predecessor, Bob Scucci aka Scooch. I showed him

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Speaker 1: pictures from the live show, which he was overjoyed. He

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Speaker 1: told me stories about people still coming by to sign

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Speaker 1: books to have him sign books, stories about his wife

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Speaker 1: being on conference calls and someone recognizing her last name

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Speaker 1: and asking if she was related to him. So, for

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Speaker 1: all the old heads who have been listening to the

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Speaker 1: show since the ESPN days, he is thrilled to be remembered.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get him on during the season. He

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Speaker 1: looks amazing, still has the best laugh in the business.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by BED

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Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right. Week fourteen

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Speaker 1: is approaching opportunities all over the board. Lines have been

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Speaker 1: moving like crazy. Simon, it's time four sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain rain telephone rate. Somebody said,

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Speaker 2: want to do.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and clearly the boys like the Jets. The Jets

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Speaker 3: number since our show has moved three points. Chad So,

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Speaker 3: I get it, people, I understood where you're coming from,

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Speaker 3: but that sucks. Like you could have got six and

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Speaker 3: a half. It's down to three and a half. There

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Speaker 3: was just so much moving on that number. Is Zach

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Speaker 3: Wilson really worth three points?

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Speaker 2: What is happening? What is this world we're living in

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Speaker 2: right now? Chad?

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Speaker 4: So?

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Speaker 1: But look, Sonny, that actually raises a question. Should we

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Speaker 1: be thinking about the Texans now?

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Speaker 2: Fuck?

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Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, no, no no, no, no no no.

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Speaker 1: That might have made you sick right there when I

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Speaker 1: said that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I don't have the energy to go crazy

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Speaker 3: about it. But no, don't stay away from the Texans.

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Speaker 3: I don't get it. It looks they're literally the books.

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Speaker 3: You're telling you they're going to lose this game out right.

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Speaker 3: The fact that it's moved this much, and that's all

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Speaker 3: professional money.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm in our app right now, it's still

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Speaker 2: well O.

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Speaker 3: We're sending percent of the bets and the money is

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Speaker 3: on the Houston Texans, and this number has moved three points.

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Speaker 2: So stay away.

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Speaker 3: A game I got wrong, took a lot of shit

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Speaker 3: for it, but I'm gonna stand my ground. The pros

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Speaker 3: love the Bills. They love the Bills in the spot chat.

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Speaker 3: I talked to them multiple guys who really liked the

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Speaker 3: Bills playing here. But I don't know about you, but

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Speaker 3: nothing's changed for me. I still like the Chiefs in

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Speaker 3: this spot. I like that Evans trends back it up

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Speaker 3: back in them here because I already just liked it anyway.

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Speaker 2: Matchup wise, where you know.

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Speaker 3: Too many pros I talked to there is like, well,

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Speaker 3: the Bills are going to be so desperate.

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Speaker 2: This is their season. They know they need to win

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Speaker 2: this to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: It's like having the Bills known that for like two

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Speaker 3: months that every game they needed to win to make

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. So I'm not really buying it, and I'm not.

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Speaker 3: I can't get there. On the matchup where the numbers

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Speaker 3: move so much. I just if we have Mahomes and

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Speaker 3: here's the ball. Last chat, I feel like we're gonna win.

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Speaker 3: And I know it didn't work out last week with

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Speaker 3: Green Bay, but it's back to back times where either

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Speaker 3: the receiver failed mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Or the referees kind of filled them right.

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Speaker 3: That pass interference probably should have got called the previous week.

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Speaker 3: But at this point, I was just shocked to talk

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Speaker 3: to so many guys who liked the bills, and I

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Speaker 3: think the number was minus three two and a half.

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Speaker 3: We did the show Tuesday, and now it's down to

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Speaker 3: one and a half. So if you're cautious about it,

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Speaker 3: I totally get it. But I'm gonna keep taking the value,

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Speaker 3: and I think there's value on the Chiefs. I make

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Speaker 3: the number minus three, So that's the game. Obviously, me

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Speaker 3: and you were going to talk about, you know, a

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Speaker 3: game your buddy Simon try to save you from Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: You wanted to take Atlanta. I wouldn't let you do it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, something's fishy about this line. What's that

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Speaker 3: number now, Chad?

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Speaker 1: So about one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think it's down to one.

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Speaker 3: It's down to one, brother, So the gut feeling was right,

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Speaker 3: you're supposed to take the bucks in the spot.

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Speaker 2: What the fuck are we gonna do here? Chat. Are

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Speaker 2: we really about to take the Bucks in this game?

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Speaker 3: I hate it, and it's moved so much where it's like,

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Speaker 3: this is where I think maybe the value shifted to

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Speaker 3: Atlanta a little, but it's scary. I've talked to multiple

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Speaker 3: guys who love the Bucks. They love the Bucks outright

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Speaker 3: this week, So I don't know what to do with

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Speaker 3: that one. Like the numbers move so much, we're at

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Speaker 3: two and a half. I would have felled comfortbable taken

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Speaker 3: the Bucks. Now it's like, I kind of want to

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Speaker 3: take Atlanta, but I don't like the spot because I

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Speaker 3: know so many pros are on the other side. That's

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Speaker 3: not the best spot to be in.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna need it. I think we

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Speaker 1: got five games as we like, we'll get there, but

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Speaker 1: keep going.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, love your Bears pick and we talked all week

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Speaker 3: about that. It's the classic. Every pro is gonna be

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Speaker 3: on it, and we're all either win together, we're all

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Speaker 3: gonna lose together. It's just that that's what that would

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Speaker 3: be the Bears. The pros will be on the Bears,

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Speaker 3: the public will be on the lines. I told you

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Speaker 3: I was hoping this was gonna go to three and

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Speaker 3: stay at three because that would make me feel better

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Speaker 3: about taking the Bears. But you can still get three

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Speaker 3: and a half, Like there's still a bunch of three

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Speaker 3: and a half's out there, So a little worried about

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Speaker 3: the Bears' coming the dog of the week.

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Speaker 1: It did get to three, and they are becoming the

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Speaker 1: public dog right the tickets right now.

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Speaker 2: I think we talked about that.

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Speaker 3: I put that on what Evan told us about the weather,

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Speaker 3: where it's like, if it's gonna be windy and wet,

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Speaker 3: we want the RPO team. We don't want to take

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Speaker 3: Detroit that needs to have everything to be perfect for

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Speaker 3: their offense to really click. So yeah, it was just

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Speaker 3: interesting talking to the pros. I love it so much.

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Speaker 3: Just really quick, I'll run through the next two where

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Speaker 3: it's split. The guys are split really on this Rams

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Speaker 3: Ravens game. I think we're getting good value on the Rams.

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Speaker 3: Fuck to plenty of pros who like the Ravens in

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Speaker 3: this spot. They just don't think the Rams are that

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Speaker 3: good of a team and the Ravens. They put him

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Speaker 3: as a top three team AFC in the NFC. If

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Speaker 3: the NFC is any kind of type of decent, the

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Speaker 3: Rams would probably be right there at seven to eight

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Speaker 3: looking in right, But I still think people just don't

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Speaker 3: respect Stafford. It's just out Evan just putting the trat

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Speaker 3: Rain win in Baltimore too. Okay, that's making a little

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Speaker 3: bit more sense. Yeah, I could see why you want

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Speaker 3: to take the Ravens in that spot, but still seven

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Speaker 3: and a half, there's still one out there. I still

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Speaker 3: think you should grab it on the Rams or just

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Speaker 3: there's such a good offense. They can run the ball,

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Speaker 3: and Williams is back fully healthy. We've seen that the

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Speaker 3: last couple of weeks here. Yeah, their offense really runs

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Speaker 3: through him. As great as Stafford is and everything he

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Speaker 3: does when the run game's working, that offense is incredible.

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Speaker 3: And the last one, which I don't know if we'll

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Speaker 3: get there, but the Cleveland Browns up to the minus

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Speaker 3: three and a half now at Jacksonville, and I think

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Speaker 3: all the pros I talked to love the same thing.

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Speaker 3: Where you're getting this Cleveland defense at home where they've

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Speaker 3: been so dominant against a backup quarterback. It's a nice

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Speaker 3: spot to take them, especially if the weather's going to

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Speaker 3: be They really like them in that spot. But I'm

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Speaker 3: with you chat where it's like two and a half.

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Speaker 3: I could get there in Cleveland three and a half.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm as confident in that number,

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Speaker 3: even though kicking is probably gonna be relevant in this game,

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Speaker 3: if the winds are really that strong and we have

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Speaker 3: the Lake effect kind of rain and everything. So definitely

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Speaker 3: a week of weather. Everyone's talking weather. Everyone I talk to,

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Speaker 3: all they're really talking about is weather. So that to me,

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Speaker 3: is gonna be the big deciding factor on Sunday. If

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Speaker 3: you haven't made any bets, you've already missed a lot

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Speaker 3: of these numbers. I would wait to get more info

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Speaker 3: about the weather because it is going to be such

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Speaker 3: a huge factor.

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Speaker 2: Here comes Sunday.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. Producer Tito would like me to

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Speaker 1: tell you, for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to

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Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network

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Speaker 1: YouTube page. All right, time to narrow down these games.

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Speaker 1: Got to get to our foxhol got to get to

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Speaker 1: our survivor, got to get to our big balls bet

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Speaker 1: of the week? Boy, oh biggest, what's the matter? What's

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Speaker 1: the matter? Not feeling great?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I just I couldn't believe how exhausts so that it

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Speaker 3: was after talking just for for whatever that was five minutes.

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Speaker 1: Oh God. In the gambling world, the biggest storyline of

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Speaker 1: the week has been these low totals, right thanks to

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Speaker 1: the weather. You mentioned backup quarterbacks that we talked about

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Speaker 1: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Cleveland could be the first duo

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Speaker 1: of NFL games to close to thirty one or less

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Speaker 1: in the same week in eighteen years. If you include

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Speaker 1: Houston and the Jets total of thirty three. Week could

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Speaker 1: see the first week since December of nineteen ninety three

257
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Speaker 1: to have three games closed with a total below thirty

258
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Speaker 1: three going back to nineteen eighty. It's all from Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 1: No NFL total has ever closed before thirty going back

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Speaker 1: forty three years. That same weekend in ninety three that

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Speaker 1: I just mentioned late December three dipped below thirty, but

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Speaker 1: all closed at thirty or higher. Here's a great stat Stuck.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned this on the Action Network podcast that he

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Speaker 1: did with Raybaum that they talked about their Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned it specifically in reference to Cleveland trying to figure

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Speaker 1: out how to play that game. The last three seasons,

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Speaker 1: games with ten plus mile per hour wins at kickoff

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ten fifty five and one to the under,

269
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Speaker 1: and they're going under the total by about five and

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Speaker 1: a half points per game. That's against the closing number, right,

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Speaker 1: So even if you're losing the value over the course

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Speaker 1: of the week, you could still bet the under and

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Speaker 1: it's closing and the games are finishing five and a

274
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Speaker 1: half points below the closing number in these ten plus

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Speaker 1: mile per hour wind kickoffs. Like, I wish we could

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Speaker 1: just play totals this week in the contest.

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Speaker 2: You know, no, bag, it's the stat of keeping your

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Speaker 2: mind for the rest of your life.

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Speaker 3: Where it's like, like Jad just said, don't let the

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Speaker 3: line movement scarry off of it. It's a long term winner.

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Speaker 3: Even when the line moves, it doesn't move enough apparently.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, pretty impressive stat.

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Speaker 1: Biggest wins this week Jets, Baltimore, Jets, Houston, Baltimore, Rams,

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Jags and Cleveland. All right, Tampa Bay Atlanta. You

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Speaker 1: said you were looking for a reason to like the Bucks,

286
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Speaker 1: and you found one. The wise guys all came in

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Speaker 1: on the Bucks and now that number is not something

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Speaker 1: that we'd want to play. To me, this becomes a pass.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to need the game. I

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Speaker 1: feel like we're going to find consensus on five games

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Speaker 1: pretty easily. Not easy to win. I just want to

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Speaker 1: be clear, just easy consensus for us, because this line

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Speaker 1: has moved significantly since you said you liked it, and

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Speaker 1: that's with majority of the tickets. By the way, on Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: I'll say one thing, because Evan did pull an interesting stat.

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Speaker 1: Teams with a negative straight up point differential who are

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Speaker 1: over five hundred against the spread later in the season,

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Speaker 1: they cover at a pretty high rate since twenty fifteen,

299
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Speaker 1: and they're ten and fives this season this week New

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Speaker 1: England and Atlanta.

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Speaker 2: Interesting. Yeah, like you said, I kind of wanted I

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Speaker 2: wanted to be.

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Speaker 3: On the books. I got where you're coming from with Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: I just I thought the line was fishy and I

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Speaker 3: don't know, like especially I want to say the value

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Speaker 3: is gone. It just seems like this is the pros

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Speaker 3: verse Joe's I mean, you.

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Speaker 2: Just said it.

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Speaker 3: It's like eighty percent of the handle and a lot

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Speaker 3: of books right now is on Atlanta and it's down

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Speaker 3: to basically a pick minus one. So this is the

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Speaker 3: games where the books and the professionals kind of take

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Speaker 3: a stand on and this is how they, like you

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Speaker 3: just said, how Vegas is built.

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Speaker 2: This is how Vegas has built these kind.

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Speaker 3: Of games where it's like it's really heavy, one sided,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of their verse line movement comes all

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Speaker 3: the way down.

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Speaker 2: So I could see this.

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Speaker 3: You know, Evan will give us the play on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: but it feels like this will be one of the

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Speaker 3: bigger public sides of the week Atlanta here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what, it's funny as you were saying,

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Speaker 1: and I started to think, wait a second, should we

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Speaker 1: be on the bucks? Is this the spot?

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Speaker 3: Because dog as long as they don't move to a favorite,

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Speaker 3: I don't mind it.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind it either. And like dogs in the

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Speaker 1: division the past ten years fifty seven percent against spread,

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent against the spread. I mean so you

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Speaker 1: know five years, yeah, five years road dogs in the

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Speaker 1: division fifty seven percent against spread. All right, Detroit at

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Speaker 1: I mean at Chicago, we talked about this game. The

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Speaker 1: wise guys are on it. You know, it's becoming a

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Speaker 1: public dog. I will say this, and again kudos to

336
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Speaker 1: to stuck you in Raybund from their podcast, because uh uh,

337
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Speaker 1: this was a game that they talked about as well.

338
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Speaker 1: The Bears are a better team than the Lion since

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Speaker 1: Week seven. And I know I've been saying this on

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Speaker 1: the podcast. I know I've been saying this run defense

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Speaker 1: is Why.

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Speaker 2: Don't you give kudos to yourself? You literally said Sunday night. Brother,

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Speaker 2: that's true, as they're ass You're all.

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Speaker 1: That's right, Flowers. You know what, here's the thing, Simon,

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Speaker 1: I'm a leader, Okay, I'm an executive, and I want

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Speaker 1: to give the credit to my colleagues, the folks who

347
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Speaker 1: do so much work on our team. I don't I

348
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Speaker 1: don't need the credit. I got plenty of credit. We

349
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Speaker 1: got we got our faces on T shirts.

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Speaker 2: And this is our baby.

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Speaker 3: You were definitely the first person I heard mentioned this game.

352
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Speaker 3: Was definitely your Sunday Night.

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Speaker 1: So here's the thing that's I do want to give

354
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Speaker 1: Stuck your credit for Ali McNeil, the defensive tackle for

355
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 1: the Lions is going to be out and he's been

356
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Speaker 1: the key for that defense. If you watch every Lions game,

357
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Speaker 1: he's the guy who makes so many plays in the

358
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Speaker 1: backfield and the.

359
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Speaker 2: Key for the defense. Their defense is horrible, right.

360
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Speaker 1: But when they were good earlier in the year they

361
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Speaker 1: were playing well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's just it's just say he's the key.

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Speaker 1: Well, someone's got to be good, right, And so now

364
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Speaker 1: we're talking about a Bears run game with an RPO

365
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 1: in a bad weather situ. And so to me, we

366
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Speaker 1: still love the Bears, I guess say.

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Speaker 2: Just preferring to the three and a half half obviously

368
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Speaker 2: grab that over the three. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Also, golf on the road, it's just a bad spot

370
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:11,160
Speaker 1: outdoors thirty four to thirty four and two against the spread,

371
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 1: fourteen nine to fourteen and one against spread in December

372
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Speaker 1: and January, averaging less than fourteen points per game when

373
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Speaker 1: it's below fifty degrees. But this is a good spot

374
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Speaker 1: for the Bears.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Here, here's a great staff from Evan. The lines defense

377
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Speaker 3: twenty seventh in EPA D since week.

378
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Speaker 1: Ten, just terrible and the Bears might meanwhile, gotten better

379
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,719
Speaker 1: every week every every week. I think there's six or seventh,

380
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Speaker 1: So kudos kudos to me. Simon. There you go, La

381
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Speaker 1: Rams at Baltimore. I still like it, like the thing

382
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Speaker 1: that gets.

383
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Speaker 2: To do you like it at six and a half

384
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Speaker 2: because that's what it might be.

385
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Speaker 1: In contest, no, I don't like it at six and

386
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Speaker 1: a half. I like it at seven and a half.

387
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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I feel.

388
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,159
Speaker 3: That's tough, where it's like it might not make our

389
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,159
Speaker 3: contest even though we both like it and bet it

390
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:08,080
Speaker 3: since Sunday. But the only thing I'd scare me up

391
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 3: a little bit is what I haven't posted about the

392
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 3: weather because obviously, with Gus Edwards and you know Lamar,

393
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,679
Speaker 3: that's like one of the best one to two combinations

394
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 3: at all football running the ball, so not ideal.

395
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Speaker 2: But I feel like I need to stand my ground

396
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 2: this Rams team.

397
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 3: They're being priced as if Stafford's still banged up and

398
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,239
Speaker 3: they're just not that good of a team. Where I

399
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 3: think this is as healthy as they've been all season offensively,

400
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 3: I mean, Cooper Cup's in there, Puka's in there, Williams

401
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 3: is in there.

402
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 2: Their offensive line.

403
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure he's still fully healthy from the start

404
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,719
Speaker 3: of the season. So we talked preseason. I think if

405
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: they win this game, I hit my Overchad, which is a.

406
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 2: Pretty good feeling.

407
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,479
Speaker 3: I had an upset amount of money invested in them

408
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 3: with six and a half wins, and when Cooper Cup

409
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 3: went out, I was just dead inside for about a week.

410
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 3: I was like, well, that's a dead bet and a

411
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 3: little bit. I know a man named Puka would be

412
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,399
Speaker 3: my hero and save my ass on that bet.

413
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, just I need one more from the Rams here.

414
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 3: If this would be with this one, it'd be amazing

415
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 3: because we're definitely throwing this in the round robin. I mean,

416
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 3: this is the biggest, biggest dog that I like this week.

417
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, nothing's changed for me, even though the weather

418
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,400
Speaker 3: does scare me a little bit. I love this Rams team,

419
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 3: but me and Chat are hoping these pros come back

420
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 3: in on the raven so we get that seven and

421
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 3: a half in contest.

422
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, we need a little bit of a hook here.

423
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Rams. I'm just a

424
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 1: Stafford guy. Like when he has the ball late in

425
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 1: the game, I know, look, I know he can wing it,

426
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 1: and I know he might throw an interception that ends

427
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 1: the game. But I'm still comfortable having them in the hook,

428
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 1: like I did bet them seven and a half earlier

429
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 1: in the week racing. You know, this is how the

430
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:47,240
Speaker 1: world is changed, Simon. I'm in New York Monday Tuesday,

431
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: fly to Vegas early Wednesday, and I'm on the tarmac

432
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 1: at Newark Airport, racing to get my bets in that

433
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 1: I'd forgotten to make before I get to Vegas because

434
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 1: it's impossible to make him in Vegas on mobile because

435
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 1: you've got to go everywhere and deposit at the retail outlets.

436
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't want to run around town depositing

437
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 1: bets somewhere. I just want to make it on my

438
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 1: phone and it's easier, so I'm not even bothering while

439
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 1: I'm in Vegas. How pathetic is that now? How much

440
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 1: has that changed?

441
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 2: They're still in the stone age in Vegas.

442
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 1: It's unbelievable. Yeah, they got to fix that. It's say

443
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: you can't stop progress Carolina at New Orleans. I'm liking

444
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:29,959
Speaker 1: this game more and more. Yeah, even at four honestly, Simon,

445
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: even at four and a half, I would like it.

446
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,439
Speaker 1: And it's moved a lot against us since Sunday. But look,

447
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 1: and it really to me comes down to a there's

448
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: a couple of things. One, Panthers have JC hornback. He's

449
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 1: a difference maker I think in the backfield for them

450
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 1: to their defense have been playing better. This is about

451
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 1: Dennis Allen, Jameis Winston and just how bad this New

452
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 1: Orleans team is, Like they shouldn't be favored by four

453
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: and a half over anybody at this point. They're not

454
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 1: that good of a.

455
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:02,199
Speaker 3: Team, are But I don't think me you would be

456
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 3: surprised if we lost this game by twenty. I mean,

457
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 3: the Panthers are just very bad and they had their

458
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 3: what do you call their dead cat bounced last week

459
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 3: having the new coach in there, so it's like, you know,

460
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 3: we're just playing the numbers here. People, Please don't get

461
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 3: mad at about this one. But I already had a

462
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 3: couple of messages about it where it's like I thought

463
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 3: we weren't betting the Panthers anymore, and it's like you

464
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 3: kind of take these kind of spots, like jad I

465
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 3: just said it. That number is way too big for

466
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 3: a Derek Carr offense that just struggles in the red

467
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 3: zone like they do.

468
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 2: And Dennis Allen.

469
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 3: You know, I really wish I had listened to Chris

470
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,959
Speaker 3: and Evan here early in the season where if we

471
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 3: just faded them, I think they're two and nine ats.

472
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 2: Is that wrong, Evan? Is that right?

473
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, They're like they're horrible this season. Saints covering the spread,

474
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 3: so the issue is usually at this time of the year,

475
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 3: I usually want to buy those teams, like you already

476
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 3: just talked about the Patriots. They're a team that, like

477
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 3: you're supposed to bet this week. Like historically, teams as

478
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 3: bad as they've been ATS wise, you know, they usually

479
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 3: bounce back.

480
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 2: But I just I can't get there. I can't believe

481
00:21:58,720 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: I'm saying the spot.

482
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 3: I am on Pitchburg for the Thursday night game and

483
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 3: Sam goes here where I get why people want us

484
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 3: to take the Saints and what they're looking at with

485
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 3: the Saints team. But I think Chad nailed. It's just

486
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 3: we're just really fading. Derek Carr and the head coach

487
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 3: and this Panthers team. I don't want to say they

488
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 3: found something last week, but it did look like brace

489
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 3: Shung looked a lot more comfortable in the offense. I mean,

490
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 3: is great. They put up eighteen points. I know it's

491
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: nothing crazy, but for them, that's pretty good. So yeah,

492
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 3: divisional game, Like Chad said, I wouldn't hate taking the

493
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,360
Speaker 3: four and a half, but I would hope you.

494
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: Could still get the five.

495
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 3: It is out there, just because this game could come

496
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 3: this cover could come down to a two point conversion.

497
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 3: I mean, how many times we've seen that, So I'm

498
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 3: with you, it's like a dog. I do love this week,

499
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 3: but I do prefer Carolina outdoors. I think that is

500
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 3: a beneficial to their defense, just because indoors, it's just

501
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: so much teams are so much faster right on that turf,

502
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 3: and that's that's really what has helped the Saints the season.

503
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 3: I know they haven't been covering, but they have semi

504
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 3: been winning games. Were they five and seven? So yeah,

505
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 3: two terrible teams. ME and Chat usually like to take

506
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 3: the points. When's two terrible teams playing.

507
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 1: Simon, we got a we still got to do a Foxhol.

508
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: We still got to do a big balls. This could

509
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:18,640
Speaker 1: be on the table.

510
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: For one of those.

511
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 1: There's a couple of the games that I want to

512
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: talk about that might take bigger balls, but I do

513
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 1: want to put this on the table as a potential

514
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,719
Speaker 1: big balls better the week. I think Foxhol might come

515
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: down to something else. This next game to me, Seattle

516
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 1: at San Francisco. This game like two weeks ago in Seattle,

517
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 1: this game closed Niners minus seven. It opened this week.

518
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 1: I think San Francisco minus twelve and a half thirteen

519
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 1: immediately got bet down. We noticed it on Sunday night.

520
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: The Niners destroyed Seattle, kind of exposed them, made everyone

521
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: reconsider what the Seahawks were. And then of course the

522
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: Seahawks go on the road. The Seahawks play the Cowboys,

523
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 1: they play them well in prime time. They've got now

524
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: a little bit extra rest. Since then, the Niners have

525
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 1: gone off and destroyed the Eagles. They are the talk

526
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: of the NFL. The trend is to play Seattle. They

527
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:24,239
Speaker 1: are the big road division dog. The trend is too

528
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 1: bet against the Niners. The height of the market, You're

529
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 1: not going to get any bigger. I feel like we

530
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: have to bet Seattle here, and I think that takes

531
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:32,479
Speaker 1: a lot of balls.

532
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: That'd be you that I'm on it. I'm on forty

533
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 2: nine ers. I know, I hate it, really yeah.

534
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: And I talked to the group that did come in

535
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: heavy on them, and I get where they're coming from,

536
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 3: the Seattle love, but I'm just not seeing it, Like,

537
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's just tough for me where they're like,

538
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 3: would you see what they did against Dallas defense? And

539
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I don't like, I don't put

540
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 3: Dallas in the top regard as other people do. Like

541
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 3: people hype that defense up so much, and I just

542
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: think there are defense that beat up on bad teams

543
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 3: and they struggle against good offenses, and like nothing's changed

544
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 3: my opinion this season, Like I've seen that this season

545
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 3: from them. So I can't get there, brother, I just

546
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: think the forty nine ers have the Seahawks number, especially

547
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: this team. And you're back in Gino Smith off his

548
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 3: probably best game of the season, which is gonna be

549
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 3: a little scary chat because just before that we were

550
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 3: talking about how the league has kind of figured out, Gino.

551
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 3: So I know where you're coming from, like usually double

552
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 3: digit dogs, divisional dogs. I'm gonna want to back that

553
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 3: team and anyone out there they wants to take the

554
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 3: ten and a half with chat, I totally get it.

555
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: But I can't let you make this big balls and

556
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 3: I can't let you put this in contest. I just

557
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 3: I just can't get there. On the Seahawks.

558
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: Well, then I feel like we're narrowing down our options

559
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 1: and big balls might have to be Carolina.

560
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 2: I don't hate that.

561
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers big ball better the wei Carolina is our

562
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 1: big balls the week. Listen one of the guys we

563
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 1: talked about the other day Minnesota, at Las Vegas. All

564
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: this money coming in on the Raiders. I was surprised

565
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: this didn't come up in sharp calls. Why is the

566
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: money not moving in their direction? Because and you thought

567
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 1: something was funky with this? Yeah, what have we learned?

568
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 1: That all of this money is coming in the Raiders

569
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 1: and the money is not and the line is not

570
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: moving in their direction.

571
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I'm staying away from it. It feels

572
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 3: there's guys on both sides of it.

573
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 2: That's wow.

574
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 3: I felt about it where it's like I wanted to

575
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 3: be on the Raiders, but I saw why guys were

576
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 3: backing the Vikings in the spot.

577
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 2: And I have no opinion like this game.

578
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 3: You know, I probably have two thousand dollars on total

579
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 3: and I bet the Raiders up plus three, but like

580
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 3: not putting any real money on this one. I just

581
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 3: I just don't really know what to deal with it.

582
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 3: So I'm I was hoping earlier the week I kind

583
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 3: of did love. I think Sunday night we talked about

584
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 3: it. I was like, Wow, that's that's a good number for

585
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 3: the Raiders, and now's the week's going along I'm just

586
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 3: not as excited about it. Like there's other games I'd

587
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 3: rather take than this one. So you have no real

588
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: opinion on it.

589
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 4: Good.

590
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm glad because I didn't want to take the Raiders

591
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 1: and date no comment either. This is the game that

592
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: I think. It's probably our Foxhill Kansas City.

593
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: No. Simon says, oh yeah, oh.

594
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: That's right, all right, that's right, all right. I apologize.

595
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: Yeah we can.

596
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 3: I mean, we can break it down more. But I

597
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 3: think it's just where are you at? People meant there

598
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 3: are you are?

599
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: You?

600
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 2: Are you really giving up on Mahomes?

601
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 3: Like if you give up on Mahomes in this offense,

602
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 3: I totally get while you're backing the Bills, but I

603
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 3: just I just think the Chiefs offense is a consistent

604
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 3: but you kind of had to ride the wave this season.

605
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: What are they eight and for at this point now?

606
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: And for Mahomes, you know, playing a full season healthy

607
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 3: that would be considered disappointment. It's like, whoa, that guy's

608
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 3: only eight and four and he's been healthy all season.

609
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 3: But we've just seen it. Little things haven't gone their way.

610
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: They usually do, right, They usually get those calls from

611
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 3: the referees. Usually his wide receivers make those catches over

612
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 3: past seasons. This year they're just not so totally get

613
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 3: why the Pros like a couple I talked to like

614
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 3: the Bills here. I mean offensively, Yes, the Bills are

615
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: great and much higher this Chiefs offense. I mean they

616
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: still got Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis. My big issue with

617
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 3: the Bills is just gonna be that defense, Like Rastell

618
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 3: Douggs is coming and done well, they still can't get

619
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 3: stops overall, and now a lot of blame shifted to

620
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 3: McDermott and his stupid ass prevent defense that he likes

621
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 3: to run. I see no difference here, Like if Mahomes

622
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,239
Speaker 3: has the ball in the game, Chat, we're getting one

623
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 3: and a half. I feel like you're like me, you're

624
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 3: feeling pretty good here. It feels like Ma's going to

625
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 3: get across that finish line. So I won't let the

626
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 3: line movement scare me off, Chad, like one and a half,

627
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 3: we'll bite the ball. We'll ride the trends with Evan

628
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: what was that having seven and oh after a loss Mahomes,

629
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 3: So we'll keep riding that trend. We'll back Mahomes here well, Look.

630
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: We talked about this the other day. We were sick

631
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: to our stomach and knowing we had the Packers plus

632
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 1: six and plus five and a half in the contest, yeah,

633
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 1: and needed it to get to two and three, and

634
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes had the ball and it scared at all costs.

635
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: You want to avoid that feeling, right, So if you

636
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: can get Patrick Mahomes as a two point conversion favorite

637
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: in this game, yeah you take it. I already better

638
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: at two and a half.

639
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 3: It's a long term winner, right Like you bet this

640
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 3: spot long term on my homes.

641
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: You're going to be a winner, Simon.

642
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: As soon as I get on a plane and get

643
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: back to a state where online betting is available, I bet.

644
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 1: I'm betting this number and I hope it lasts. I

645
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: don't think our next game is our foxhol Philadelphia Dallas

646
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: Dallas minus three and a half. I'm feeling pretty good

647
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: about Dallas.

648
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: Here.

649
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: You you had a power raided at four.

650
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 2: Let's make it a Foxhil. This was what I was

651
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 2: make Foxhall.

652
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: What about giants though, no.

653
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 3: See the giants would be big balls. That's not a Foxhol,

654
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: like this is a foxvill because this is between the pros.

655
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 3: This is split right down in the middle.

656
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 2: I know some pros.

657
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: Then okay, all right, then let's make this foxhol. I

658
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: might want to change big Balls to Giants.

659
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 2: You're in on the Giants. Now you've come full circle.

660
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: Maybe I love it. Maybe yeah, I just let's talk

661
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: about Dallas.

662
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 3: I thought this was foxible just because it's very split,

663
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 3: a lot of back and forth, a lot of arguments,

664
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: a lot of guys saying they got the inside info

665
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 3: that Hurts is not hurt, that whatever happened last week

666
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 3: was purely to the head, nothing about his lower body

667
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 3: was any type of injured. From the other side, from

668
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: people on Dallas, it's like, no, I'm hearing other news

669
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 3: that hurts his hurt lower body and that's going to

670
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 3: hamper him offensively.

671
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

672
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 3: I would say my favorite thing I saw, if you're

673
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 3: an Egos backer, is there was a bunch of crazy

674
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 3: Eagles fans that went to the Eagles stadium with signs,

675
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: huge signs that run the damn ball. And that's the truth, Like,

676
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: that's what's really been missing with this Eagles team. They

677
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 3: just have not been running the ball like they were

678
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: earlier in the season, right, and Dallas that's their Achilles heel. Like,

679
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 3: if you can run the ball on this team, it

680
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 3: really can't set up everything else. And I totally get it,

681
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 3: like where everyone's coming from. But I look from the

682
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: viewpoint of the Eagles. We knew they were going to

683
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 3: go through a Gauntlin and they're lucky they're not sitting

684
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 3: here right NOWT zero and three. Right They could have

685
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 3: easily lost that Bills game, could have easily lost that

686
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 3: Chiefs game, and they did get blown out to that

687
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 3: fourty nine Ers team.

688
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 2: And in past years.

689
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 3: This would be like an auto play for me on

690
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 3: Dallas because the Eagles in Dallas just always split. That

691
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 3: really is how it works in their conference. But yeah,

692
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 3: it's just it's shocking that this is so split. Like

693
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: I'm looking right now in our app it's basically fifty

694
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 3: to fifty. So yeah, if you're an Eagles backer, you

695
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 3: gotta be feeling pretty good getting the plus three and

696
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 3: a half. But Chad knows I make this minus four

697
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 3: in the Cowboys, So I'm not scared at all taking

698
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 3: the minus three and a half. You're on the Cowboys,

699
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 3: it just feels like they're the right side. This is

700
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 3: what we always call a scheduled loss for the Eagles.

701
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 3: It does feel that way where it's just not an

702
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 3: ideal spot for them. And you mix in Cowboys extended

703
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 3: rest December at home, that's a big deal playing against

704
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: this Eagles team. So yeah, I just couldn't avoid it.

705
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 3: It pains me to say, but I am on Dallas

706
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 3: this week.

707
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: Well, look schematically, two things. One, Lane Johnson is still

708
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: banged up like sat out a couple weeks ago, was

709
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 1: not great last week. The Cowboys that it makes it

710
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: harder to run the ball when one of your best

711
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: offensive linemen is not fully healthy. Number one, Number two,

712
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: as we saw the Niners do. There is a huge

713
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,479
Speaker 1: hole in the middle of the field defensively for the

714
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: Eagles in coverage, and that is something the Cowboys can

715
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: systematically take advantage of. What have we heard about all

716
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 1: season long? The Cowboys are now running a version of

717
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: a West Coast offense. What does a West Coast offense do?

718
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: Quick throws, slants across the middle where guys are getting leverage.

719
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 1: That is the opportunity that the Cowboys have with really

720
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 1: good receivers right now in a middle of the defense

721
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: that might not be able to cover against that. So schematically,

722
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: you forget about the spot there are opportunities, then I

723
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: guess we are are in the fox Hult.

724
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a

725
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: Foxhole guy.

726
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 4: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

727
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 2: I'm a Foxhole guy.

728
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: New York Giants plus six and a half. The only

729
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: reason I would make it the Big Balls is because

730
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: the Packers are so high right now and everyone is

731
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: in love with them. We're getting we're getting noticed. For

732
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, he does not want us to switch Big

733
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: Balls after the announcement, so we are sticking with we are.

734
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 3: Producer Mad doesn't like the changing of the bigger producer men.

735
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, dancers. It's actually my bad. I forgot, like I

736
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: forgot the Giants. We're playing Monday night, and I would

737
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: have gone to them for Big Balls. But I got

738
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: so excited about the Panthers because that was an opportunity,

739
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: and I was thinking Chiefs for Foxhole and I just

740
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: lost track, and so I apologize. How are you feeling

741
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: about the Giants at six and a half.

742
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing's changed, but I'm with you where it's scary

743
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 3: as hell, just because Green Bay is playing their best

744
00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 3: football of the year and the book.

745
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 2: They can't catch up to it, so eventually they will

746
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: catch up to Right.

747
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 3: It's the same thing with the Lions, matter how hot

748
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 3: the Lions were and now it's really flipped these last

749
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 3: couple of weeks.

750
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exact with Green Bay.

751
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 3: I mean that's just how football is, where it's like

752
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 3: you'll be hot for a while. I mean, everything will

753
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 3: be clicking and then some team defensive will scheme it right,

754
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 3: and every team will copy that team's scheme and that's

755
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: what adventures gonna have the Green Bay. And this is

756
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 3: like kind of one of those games where I wouldn't

757
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 3: be shocked if somehow the Giants defense did win this

758
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 3: game because it won't be their offense.

759
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: Right.

760
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 3: It's like, if the Giants do win or cover this game,

761
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 3: it's either Jordan Love finally has a bad game and

762
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 3: someone schemes it against him, or you know, it's just

763
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 3: a total meltdown by the Green Bay offense. Like I

764
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: don't think me and you either are making this bet

765
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 3: thinking yeah, we're gonna win this because Tommy DeVito is

766
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 3: gonna get us there. It's like, no, we just we

767
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 3: need the Giants defense to step up here. Just because

768
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 3: I mean Green Bay's offense, not that I want to

769
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 3: call them a jugger not, but like they put up

770
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 3: twenty seven against a really good Chiefs defense last week.

771
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 3: Like this is a team that's really clicking offensively right now.

772
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 3: So you know, I had my questions. I thought it

773
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 3: was a little fluky what they did a couple of games,

774
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 3: and I was like, yeah, everyone can put points up

775
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 3: against the Lions. But if you go back and watch

776
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 3: that tape against the Chiefs, like it's all clicking there,

777
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 3: Like Lafool and Love are just very in tune right now.

778
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 3: So this I don't hate it. Chad, this might be

779
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 3: one of my Survivor picks, unfortunately. I mean it's that

780
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 3: time of year where it's like there's only so many

781
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 3: teams left. My basically my two choices right now are

782
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 3: Green Bay or Pittsburgh, and I'm kind of leaning towards

783
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 3: green Bay. But everything Chad says, right, like, I like

784
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: the Giants, we play this number, it's just.

785
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: You want to make it one of our five? Are

786
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:41,879
Speaker 2: you that confident in it? It's tough.

787
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 1: I actually feel I feel pretty good about it, Like

788
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: if and we'll talk about sort.

789
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 2: Of there the boys on it or something.

790
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 1: No, I just feel like this is life. I like

791
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 1: this game.

792
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 4: I like I like.

793
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: I like a home team in prime time as a

794
00:35:55,560 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: relatively big dog against a team that has been escalating, escalating, escalating.

795
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: The number has moved, the rating has moved up on

796
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: the Packers the past few weeks. Like this is just

797
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: the classic spot where you want to fade a really

798
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: hot team.

799
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 3: And again that's what sucks though, is like Chad saying,

800
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 3: is even if we don't catch it this week, I

801
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 3: basically have to keep feeding Green Bay for the next

802
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 3: like three weeks, which.

803
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: Is it sounds awful.

804
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 3: That's kind of how it is, where it's like eventually

805
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 3: they're going to fall off a cliff just because no

806
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 3: team stays this hot. And yeah, I'm with you, I

807
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 3: just I don't. I don't have nearly as much confidence

808
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 3: in this bed as you do. Obviously, Well, we'll talk.

809
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 1: About the five that we think we might land on. Right.

810
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: A reminder about our contest picks. By now, you know,

811
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: we track our official contest picks in the Action Network

812
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 1: app under the Fhaves five account. But again, if you

813
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 1: want to see the unofficial picks, we enter on Thursday,

814
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 1: just go to the contest website favorites dot actionnetwork dot

815
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: com and search for the faves five. That's us. Before

816
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 1: we get to our money line Underdog round Robin. Reminder

817
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: that the Week thirteen contest tiebreaker is totally rushing yards

818
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football, our predictive analyst Billy Ward writes

819
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 1: a weekly article about typebreaker strategy, and a link to

820
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: that article can be found in the episode's description. If

821
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: you want to leg up in the contest, good luck, Okay, wait, money?

822
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 1: What's the matter? Dude?

823
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 3: Didn't even talk about a game. I thought you were

824
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 3: going to bring up your your love for Denver? What's

825
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 3: going on there?

826
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: I just felt like the line had moved too much.

827
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get the number I

828
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: wanted in the contest.

829
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: What number do you want? Well?

830
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 1: I wanted to get three and a half because I

831
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: wanted to see where it was going to land. And

832
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 1: I think that the number has moved too much for

833
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: in Denver's direction right now? Did you feel differently?

834
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you, I know the hell to do

835
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 2: with it.

836
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 3: I kind of wanted to take the chargers because I

837
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 3: didn't understand the number. I didn't get why this game

838
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 3: wasn't a pick. But yeah, as long as you don't

839
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 3: have opinion, I'm good on this one.

840
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 2: Because I don't know.

841
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 1: I sort of looked at the board and scratched it

842
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 1: off because I felt like I missed the best of it.

843
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's fair, all right.

844
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: The money Line Underdog Round Robin, here's some suggestions. Panthers.

845
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 2: All right, I'll party Rams who Rams, Rams Bears.

846
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 1: Carolina Chicago Rams Bocks.

847
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 3: It's too short, it's only one and a half year.

848
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 3: It's minus one oh two that passed. What about the

849
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,240
Speaker 3: Jets plus one seventy?

850
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 1: All right, Jets can't go wrong putting them in every

851
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 1: week eventually.

852
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: Oh, I mean, I mean pains me to say because

853
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 3: I'm taking a survivor, but we just talked about the

854
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 3: Giants or plus two forty.

855
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say it, but I didn't

856
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 1: want to jinx to your survivor opportunity.

857
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 2: It's been a great run.

858
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 3: So if it ends on, if it ends with Tommy DeVito,

859
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 3: that's how it's meant to be.

860
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: All right, Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. We're going with Carolina Chicago, Rams,

861
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: Jets and Giants. Oh, Simon, I got a lot of

862
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: compliments at the live event about this specific moment. Are

863
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:31,280
Speaker 1: you ready to make Little Caesars, which is the official

864
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 1: pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day? Simon,

865
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: the holiday season has finally arrived. Do you think Santa

866
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: will be putting slices of Little Caesars pizza into you

867
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 1: were stocking this Christmas?

868
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 2: I hope.

869
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 1: So order online during our pizza Pizza pre game one

870
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 1: hour before NFL games and get ready for some football

871
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick

872
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 1: the toppings you crave. Simon, what do you think about

873
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 1: this new holiday motto I invented. If the evening snow

874
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: shines like magic dust, it's a signed to order crazy crust.

875
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 1: However you order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning,

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879
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 4: The Survivor pool pick of the week.

880
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 1: All right, Survivor, we talked about Steelers and Packers. Where

881
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 1: do you think you'll.

882
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 3: Land on Thursday Nights short week? I guess Steelers, even

883
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 3: though everything in my body's telling me to take the

884
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 3: Patriots after a loss. It's hard from me, not the

885
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 3: back Tomlin at home in this spot, Brian with Evans

886
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 3: stat though, just take the fucking under So don't pick

887
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,319
Speaker 3: a side here, but I'm taking Green Bay and my

888
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 3: survivor pool.

889
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: What are your biggest bets right now?

890
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 3: Oh god, I mean people are gonna hate them regardless.

891
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 3: Jets actually know what. I actually have some easy ones.

892
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 3: I got the Chiefs in there, like I've just been

893
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 3: hitting that number since it's moved. But yeah, Jets, Bears, Bucks, Cowboys,

894
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 3: and the Chiefs. Those are ones that I really like.

895
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 3: Bet a lot on and Panthers. I was hoping I

896
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 3: was gonna get back to six, but that's just gone down.

897
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 3: I think in most books is four and a half.

898
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 3: There's a couple five and a half's out there, so I

899
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 3: haven't bet too much of that Panthers yet. I was

900
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 3: really hoping it would go up, but it hasn't. And

901
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 3: like Evan put our chat, a couple of books went

902
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 3: to seven and a half again on the Rams, I'll

903
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 3: probably put a little more on that RAMS number.

904
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by

905
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915
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Speaker 1: off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right. Before

918
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: we get out of here, we're joined by Action Network

919
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: Director and research Evan Abrams. We talk about them all

920
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: the time. People put his stats on their Dak Prescott

921
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 1: jerseys and permanent ink. Evan, you're getting the last word.

922
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams.

923
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 1: We're finished talking.

924
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna Saydak's playing the NFC East this week,

925
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,919
Speaker 4: so we could just run that one back, but let's

926
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 4: go a little bit sideway, so Trevor Lawrence banged up CJ.

927
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 4: Bethrick's supposed to get the start. Worth noting Jaguars, they've

928
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 4: won ten straight games against the spread road neutral. That

929
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 4: is the longest winning streak over the last twenty years,

930
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:01,359
Speaker 4: so right now, obviously all Lawrence the past, but really

931
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,959
Speaker 4: running hot away from home. And it's also worth noting

932
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 4: look this up during the show. Flaco hasn't been a

933
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,479
Speaker 4: favorite since twenty nineteen, hasn't laid three or more since

934
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 4: Week one of twenty nineteen, so that has been a

935
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,320
Speaker 4: minute uh story.

936
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 2: Of the weekend.

937
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 4: Backup quarterbacks as of now, I think we're bracing for

938
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 4: about eight or nine backups, depending on what happens with

939
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 4: Derek Carr. So if Derek Carr doesn't go and Jamis starts,

940
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 4: nine backup quarterbacks this week would be the most in

941
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 4: a non week seventeen Week eighteen since Week fourteen of

942
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,240
Speaker 4: twenty thirteen, so it has been exactly ten years without

943
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 4: Derek Carr this week, if he doesn't go, we've seen

944
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 4: this many backups and since it started last season, backup

945
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 4: quarterbacks sixty three and ninety one straight up. Yikes, but

946
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 4: eighty three, sixty seven and four against the spread, so

947
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 4: usually covering those numbers. And then finally I will say this, guys,

948
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 4: I'm on the Giants. I agree with you, Chad. I

949
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 4: like the number, but this is just insane and I

950
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 4: gotta say it. This will be a thirty fifth night

951
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 4: game for the Jet and Giants. Since twenty eighteen, they

952
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 4: are four and thirty straight up, including three and thirty

953
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 4: in the last thirty three. Since twenty eighteen, they are

954
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 4: one in fifteen straight up at home in night games.

955
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 2: Only win. Yeah.

956
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 4: Week one this year when the Jets beat the Bills,

957
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 4: so tough sled. But I like the six and a half,

958
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 4: so let's roll.

959
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 1: None of that stat worries me. That just is fluky

960
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 1: nature of bad football in New York. Playing the number

961
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 1: in front of us. I like it for all of us.

962
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 1: To recap our Foxholt was Dallas minus three and a half,

963
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: Simon says, Kansas City minus two and a half. Executive decision,

964
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 1: Chicago plus three, big balls. I didn't change it. Carolina

965
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: plus five. Our round robin is Carolina, Chicago Rams, Jets

966
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 1: and Giants everything against Evan against everything. Evan just said Simon.

967
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 1: If we had a lock in five picks right.

968
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 4: Now, the faves five for now.

969
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,280
Speaker 1: I'm thinking Carolina, hoping we can get four and a half,

970
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: hoping we can get three and a half, Rams hoping

971
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 1: we can get seven and a half, Kansas City. I'll

972
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 1: take whatever under three we can get and New York

973
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 1: Football Giants plus six and a half.

974
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna try to force the Cowboys. And I

975
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 3: just like that number a lot. It's just a nice

976
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 3: spot to take the Cowboys.

977
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 1: Who do you want to take out? Carolina Bears?

978
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 2: Rams? Would? I would take them over that Giants for sure.

979
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't mind it. Look if it's gonna be

980
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 1: one of your biggest bets of the week, which I think.

981
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I'm getting there on the Dallas thing. That's

982
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 3: why it's like it feels like I have to get

983
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: it in there. I'm getting pretty heavily invested.

984
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 1: All right, Giants are out, Cowboys are in.

985
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 2: Perfect There we go.

986
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods.

987
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.

988
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 1: Feedback is the gift until Sunday night at seven thirty Eastern.

989
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: I Love you.

990
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

991
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

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