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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. Uh, Tracy, It's

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Speaker 2: time for our annual AMA episode.

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Speaker 3: The Annual Call In Show. This is my favorite time

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Speaker 3: of the year, Joe, totally.

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Speaker 2: It's a weird time of year. Actually.

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Speaker 3: The thing is, I feel like we're always answering questions

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Speaker 3: that people ask us. Right, maybe we're too accessible.

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Speaker 2: No, I never feel that way. I feel like all

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Speaker 2: we do is ask questions and no one ever answer

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Speaker 2: asks us question.

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Speaker 3: I feel like if people want to ask us questions,

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Speaker 3: it's pretty easy to do so. But we still have

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Speaker 3: this call in show.

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Speaker 2: It's amazing that your entire job is you ask questions

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Speaker 2: people multiple times a week, every week for the entire year,

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Speaker 2: and your main takeaway from the year is that you

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Speaker 2: answer too many questions. This is really interesting.

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Speaker 3: That's very That was not my main takeaway. My main

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Speaker 3: takeaway was we are question platform agnostic, Like it doesn't

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Speaker 3: really matter what format the questions come in, whether they're

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Speaker 3: called in like in this show, or whether they're typed

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Speaker 3: in via the discord or on Blue Sky or Twitter

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Speaker 3: or something else.

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Speaker 2: This is fair. I like talking to people, I like

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Speaker 2: answering questions, but I like the call in format. I

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Speaker 2: missed the old days of you know, it'd be fun

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Speaker 2: to do a live radio show with callin.

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Speaker 3: I'd be fun to do it.

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Speaker 2: When I was a kid, I called into sports talk

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Speaker 2: radio sometimes and I sort of missed that platform. And

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Speaker 2: you don't really get that with podcasts. A wait, what.

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Speaker 3: Did you say on sports radio?

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Speaker 2: I don't remember the you know, I think like I,

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Speaker 2: you know, I usually follow baseball really closely, and I

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Speaker 2: would like say, like, oh, I think the Toronto Blue

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Speaker 2: Jays have a lot of momentum down the stretch, and

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna, you know, win the American League.

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Speaker 2: Or it's just some nonsense like that.

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Speaker 3: Sports and now tell usis in commentary is just something

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Speaker 3: I really I struggle to get into because it's like

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Speaker 3: it's either well, the team played well or I think

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Speaker 3: the team could play better. That's it. Like that's the

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Speaker 3: sum totality of what people say on those things.

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Speaker 2: So yes, we are going to be uh. We invited

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Speaker 2: listeners to record a voice memo and then email that

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Speaker 2: to Odd Law too. Bloomberg Dot net and let's take

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Speaker 2: a listen to some and Tracy and I will do

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Speaker 2: our best to answer them.

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Speaker 3: We'll pretend that we're live.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is Steve from Northville, New Jersey. I would

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Speaker 4: like Tracy and Jodas set up a cage match type

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Speaker 4: hardcore debate on the value of cryptocurrency. Every Saint analyst

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Speaker 4: says it's a pointless scam which uses tons of energy

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Speaker 4: to create valueless tokens that have been bid up to

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Speaker 4: insane prices and at the same time greatly facilitate many

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Speaker 4: criminal transactions. On the other side, there are a host

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Speaker 4: of promoter promoters that say it is the future of finance.

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Speaker 3: First off, Steve, that's not a question, that's request, But

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Speaker 3: you know what, we'll take it. We'll take what we

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Speaker 3: can get. I think it's a good request. I would

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Speaker 3: like to see a cage match on crypto.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I've said it before. I have people

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Speaker 2: from time to time to ask us, you know, we

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Speaker 2: should do a debate topic, and we may have done

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Speaker 2: one or two of theirs. I the reason I'm skeptical

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Speaker 2: about well, I mean, if we're talking about a literal

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Speaker 2: cage match where people beat people up, that's fine, but

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Speaker 2: if we're talking about a figurative one where it's some

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Speaker 2: sort of debate, Debates, to my mind, are only interesting

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Speaker 2: if the two sides agree on like ninety nine percent

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Speaker 2: of premises, where they agree on all definitions, et cetera,

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Speaker 2: and there is a very specific thing. Most debates on

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Speaker 2: crypto you get some sort of mainstream canesy and economist

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Speaker 2: and then some sort of you know, crazy laser ezed

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Speaker 2: person that don't agree on anything and they just talk

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Speaker 2: past each other. Not a particularly productive use and I

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Speaker 2: think most debates in public forms are like that. But

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Speaker 2: if we can find the right guests who largely agree

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Speaker 2: on and then disagree on something specific, maybe that's a

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Speaker 2: good twenty twenty five ambition.

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Speaker 3: I think you're right that that's kind of a difficulty there.

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Speaker 3: The one other thing I would say when it comes

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Speaker 3: to crypto, the use case or the envisioned purpose of

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Speaker 3: cryptocurrency always seems to be changing, right sure, And I

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Speaker 3: used to think I've written about this, but I used

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Speaker 3: to think that was a bad thing. That you know,

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Speaker 3: one day, bitcoin, for instance, would be like a way

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Speaker 3: to pay for things, and then the next day it

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Speaker 3: would be a store of value. And it would just

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Speaker 3: change every day. But I think as time has gone on,

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Speaker 3: we've kind of seen that that's turned out to be

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Speaker 3: a strength rather than a weakness. But it does make

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Speaker 3: it incredibly hard to have a resonable discussion over the

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Speaker 3: use case totally.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 2: I would say we did that episode a couple of

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Speaker 2: months ago with Austin Campbell. I think we're going to

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Speaker 2: have them back on soon. I'm like coming around to

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Speaker 2: some of like the stable coin stuff. Maybe anyway, should

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Speaker 2: we go to the next question?

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Speaker 3: Next question?

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Speaker 7: Hey, Joe and Tracy. My name is Ryan Ross. I'm

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Speaker 7: based in New Jersey, and I'm curious what have been

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Speaker 7: your most favorite industries you've learned about in the past,

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Speaker 7: and also what are you interested in learning about in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty five. You've had episode on the tractor supply,

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Speaker 7: which is interesting, and wood palettes and how those are

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Speaker 7: logistically moved around in an episode about how car leather

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Speaker 7: affects the price of gummy bears. I'm curious what's been

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Speaker 7: most interesting to you in the past in terms of

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Speaker 7: industries and also what are you interested in learning about

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Speaker 7: in twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 3: Hi, Ry, and I like this question. There are a

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Speaker 3: lot of interesting things that we get to talk about

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Speaker 3: on the podcast, and at the end of the year

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Speaker 3: it kind of becomes hard to remember all of them.

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Speaker 3: I will say one thing I really enjoyed diving into

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Speaker 3: this year was doing a bit more on agriculture. I

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Speaker 3: think one of the great things of hosting your own

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Speaker 3: podcast is that you can sort of to some extent,

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Speaker 3: tailor the content to your new interests. And you know,

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Speaker 3: I've kind of become interested in gardening and growing my

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Speaker 3: own food, and I have some latent prepper tendencies, I guess,

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Speaker 3: is the way I would put it, And so it's

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Speaker 3: been really fun to kind of dive into industrial agriculture

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Speaker 3: and learn more about that.

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Speaker 2: There's a good tracy, will you shelter my family in

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Speaker 2: the event of some disaster? Like do you have enough

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Speaker 2: stored away?

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Speaker 7: You have?

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Speaker 6: Note?

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Speaker 3: Joe, what do you bring to the table other than

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Speaker 3: other than sparkling conversation, which is.

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Speaker 2: Really important you're in for the long haul. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I fear my kids are very cute.

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Speaker 3: This is very true. Yeah, all right, you know.

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Speaker 2: So I like learning about agriculture too. So I've said

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Speaker 2: it before, I really want to do more on Defense

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty Well, yeah, of course I want defense spending,

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Speaker 2: the defense industrial base, and if anyone listening to this

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Speaker 2: has the perfect guest and anything about how that all works,

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Speaker 2: which I really know nothing about, shoot me and Tracy

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Speaker 2: a message, because I would say that's there's a big

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Speaker 2: that's a big area that it feels wide open and

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Speaker 2: interesting for me.

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Speaker 3: Next year Defense is a really good one that crosses

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Speaker 3: over into financial markets quite a bit, but also is

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Speaker 3: obviously in the news given the new Trump administration and

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk and joje and all of that.

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Speaker 2: One thing.

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Speaker 3: One other thing I would say that I'm interested in

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five that touches on agriculture. I really

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Speaker 3: want to do a fertilizer episode. Oh yeah, like where

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Speaker 3: a fertilizer comes from and whether or not all the

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Speaker 3: headlines you see about the land becoming less fertile, how

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Speaker 3: serious should we be taking those? So yeah, if anyone

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Speaker 3: has fertilizer contact contacts, send them our way as well.

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Speaker 2: Let's do it. Should we go to the next Let's

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Speaker 2: do it?

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Speaker 6: Hey, Tracy, Hey Joe, this is Duncan. I am curious,

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Speaker 6: what is the most embarrassingly wrong take you've had on

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Speaker 6: something in popular discourse over the last five years. Love

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Speaker 6: the show.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Wait, Joe did duncan say the most embarrassing take

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Speaker 3: or our most embarrassing.

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Speaker 2: I think you should the most embarrassingly wrong take that

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Speaker 2: you've had. But I don't know if it was a

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Speaker 2: collective our.

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Speaker 8: Oh.

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Speaker 2: I think it was more specifically, you know, like either

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Speaker 2: one of us. Man, I mostly have wrong takes. You know,

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Speaker 2: like I wouldn't have expected crypto to bounce as much

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Speaker 2: as it had starting in twenty twenty when FTX imploded.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't have expected that so quickly, you know. I

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Speaker 2: remember we did episodes years ago about like China's like

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Speaker 2: made twenty twenty five stuff, and I wouldn't have expected

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Speaker 2: it to be as successful as it has. I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: have expected inflation to persist and be as elevated as

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Speaker 2: long as it has. What else I mean? I mostly

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Speaker 2: I mostly get things wrong. I mean, it's harder for

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Speaker 2: me to think of what I get things right about.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Tracy, do you have any Do you

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Speaker 2: have any.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to think of anything, like really really bad.

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Speaker 3: I would say I probably wrote my last bitcoin obituary

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Speaker 3: in like twenty seventeen, and I've written quite a few

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Speaker 3: at this point before I had my big, like come

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Speaker 3: to Jesus moment about narrative flexibility and the idea that

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Speaker 3: as long as the story's there, it almost doesn't matter

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Speaker 3: what the story is, and there's always going to be

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Speaker 3: a new one. I'm trying to think.

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Speaker 2: I will say, there's just no upside right in writing

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Speaker 2: another obituary. O, No, what are you going to get

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Speaker 2: from that?

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Speaker 6: No?

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Speaker 3: And I will say the last obituary here's a bit

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Speaker 3: of inside like journalistic navel gazing. But the last obituary

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Speaker 3: that I wrote on Bitcoin, I made sure to end

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Speaker 3: it with like the possibility that it could come back.

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Speaker 3: Having written obituaries before where it did come back, I

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Speaker 3: learned a little bit. So it's a constant process where

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Speaker 3: you're trying to improve on your own work. And the

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Speaker 3: one thing I would say is, and I don't think

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Speaker 3: people realize this, but journalism everything plays out very publicly, right.

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Speaker 3: It's like you do your work, you put it in

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Speaker 3: front of people at the end of every day, and

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Speaker 3: people get to comment on it and decide if they

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Speaker 3: like it or not, if they think it's good or not.

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Speaker 3: And so you're constantly sort of getting that immediate feedback

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Speaker 3: and trying to go back and improve yourself based on it. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's an iterative process, let's just put it that way.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to just think if there's anything else that

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Speaker 2: you've got, I don't know, is it? I you know what,

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Speaker 2: I don't think. I don't think I've had many like

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Speaker 2: embarrassingly mega wrong takes, in part because I don't have

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Speaker 2: many like takes where I stick my neck out and

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Speaker 2: say like this.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I know one. I know one that Joe had.

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Speaker 3: What about the thing about scooters? How scooters are going

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Speaker 3: to be like the next motive?

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Speaker 2: You know What's funny though, So this is fair. But

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Speaker 2: someone then reached out to me and said, you know,

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Speaker 2: you're you're wrong about scooters in the US, but that

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Speaker 2: in Europe actually they have been highly disruptive. So I'm

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Speaker 2: actually giving myself a half point this if someone reached

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Speaker 2: out to me from Paris actually, So I'm going to

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Speaker 2: take a half uh half credit for that. Anyway. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mostly have like modestly wrong takes rather than anything

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Speaker 2: incredibly embarrassing. But dun't can thank you for the question.

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Speaker 3: Duncan I will say, like our takes, we try to

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Speaker 3: ground them in some like reality with rational analysis and reason,

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Speaker 3: so hopefully they're never too embarrassing.

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Speaker 2: But we sure work right, Yeah, we.

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Speaker 3: Show the work. I'm sure we could come up with

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Speaker 3: some find some if we went back into the archives

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Speaker 3: that we wouldn't want anyone to see now. But hey,

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Speaker 3: they're all there, they're all public.

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Speaker 9: Next question, Hey, Joe and Tracy, this is Nick or

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Speaker 9: newsman on Blue Sky. I'd like to know what you

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Speaker 9: think is the most significant financial story of the year.

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Speaker 9: I know there's a lot to consider, but there must

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Speaker 9: be one thing that bubbles up to the top when

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Speaker 9: you hear this question.

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Speaker 8: Thank you for your time.

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Speaker 3: I love odd lots, oh man, Nick, there is a

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Speaker 3: lot to consider. I do think one thing, one thing

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Speaker 3: that I find really interesting, and I think you could

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Speaker 3: probably connect it to a bunch of different things that

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Speaker 3: are going on right now, is the episode that we

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Speaker 3: did a while back on companies getting smarter about how

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Speaker 3: they're ing their respective products. And it sounds like an

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Speaker 3: incremental thing. It's like, okay, well, companies, they're always trying

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Speaker 3: to charge more and make more money, and now they've

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Speaker 3: figured out some interesting new ways to do it with

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Speaker 3: new technology, but I think the level of sophistication and

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Speaker 3: the way that they're doing it is starting to become

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Speaker 3: a problem. And the more it comes on people's radars,

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Speaker 3: I think, the more sense of unfairness there is in

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Speaker 3: the general American population over the practice. And maybe that's

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Speaker 3: why you get so much of this anger sort of

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Speaker 3: boiling up into politics and things like that. So price

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Speaker 3: pack architecture, I think is a really interesting one.

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Speaker 2: I have three stories that I think are the three

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Speaker 2: biggest stories in the world right now and a varying

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Speaker 2: time concerns. One is just the incredible amount to which everyone,

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Speaker 2: every investor is implicitly who has long risk assets is

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Speaker 2: long tech and long AI specifically concentration concentration in this one.

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Speaker 2: Bet anyone who has a diversified portfolio is making a

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Speaker 2: bit in some way on tech and AI. The incredible

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Speaker 2: rise of China is a manufacturing powerhouse, and the sort

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Speaker 2: of big questions about whether anything is going to get

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Speaker 2: built anywhere in the world that's not China, and can

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Speaker 2: anywhere can anyone be competitive in manufacturing outside of China's borders.

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Speaker 2: And then the destabilizing effects of mobile technology, which I

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Speaker 2: think we're sort of you know, social media and how

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Speaker 2: that's changing politics everywhere. And I think, you know, you

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Speaker 2: look like Romania recently, like you know, Revert canceled an

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Speaker 2: election because they claim that there was interference from Russia

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Speaker 2: via TikTok and so forth, and the sort of like

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Speaker 2: ways that new technologies are revertebrating across democracies and we

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Speaker 2: see change and basically everywhere, numerous shocking developments everywhere. I

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Speaker 2: think in part due to tech. Those to me are

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Speaker 2: the three big stories right now.

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Speaker 3: When do we get to do the drone slash UFO episode?

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Speaker 2: Joe, I hope. Let's let's go to the next question.

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Speaker 10: Okay, Hey, Joe and Tracy, This is Daniel in Seattle, Washington.

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Speaker 10: I was just wondering your opinion on AI models being

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Speaker 10: trained on journalist content across the web, and I feel

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Speaker 10: free to elaborate on if what your colleagues might think

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Speaker 10: or who has a bigger bone to pick is it

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Speaker 10: you as the journalist or the media company.

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Speaker 3: Oh, this is an interesting question. I think if you

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Speaker 3: had asked me this like ten years ago, before chat,

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Speaker 3: GPT and all the other variations of it became a

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Speaker 3: big thing, I think I would have expected to be

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Speaker 3: really annoyed at this development, but actually, now that it's happened,

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Speaker 3: I feel kind of relaxed about this idea that you know,

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Speaker 3: it trained on basically the entirety of the Internet, and

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Speaker 3: a big chunk of the Internet is stuff that paid

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Speaker 3: journalists have been writing for years. I don't know, like,

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Speaker 3: I don't really feel that upset about it.

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Speaker 2: To you, no, I don't, And also I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I should like, but I don't. And also I

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Speaker 2: don't think it's really worth getting upset, Like there are

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Speaker 2: some things that I think of as the sort of

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Speaker 2: big historical technological shifts that are happening, and I don't

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Speaker 2: think our opinions matter very much. So I guess maybe

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Speaker 2: in some sense I could be convinced to be upset

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Speaker 2: about it, but in reality, I don't think me being

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Speaker 2: upset is going to do very much.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of journalists have also probably given

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Speaker 3: up on the notion of making money from like old

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Speaker 3: fashioned copy, and so the idea of someone else being

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Speaker 3: able to make money off of it, even if it's

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Speaker 3: by training some new generative AI models fair game to them.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we should all start developing our own AI models.

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Speaker 3: Maybe that's the way for it.

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Speaker 2: We'll try. I actually remind me, Tracy, I have a

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Speaker 2: research project I want to do in twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: or twenty twenty five. I'm going to tell you about it.

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Speaker 3: That sounds interesting. Yeah, all right, next question please.

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Speaker 5: Hello Joan Tracy. This is Mois from Karachi, Pakistan. I'm

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Speaker 5: a big fan of the show. My question to both

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Speaker 5: of you is that who are your favorite economists and

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Speaker 5: why are they your favorite?

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Speaker 9: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Interesting? Well, hello moys from Karachi, Pakistan. I spent some

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Speaker 3: time in Pakistan. I was in Islamabad and Lahore. I

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Speaker 3: never made it to Karachi, though I would have liked

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Speaker 3: to go there. Favorite economists do you think he means

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Speaker 3: current or like old school economists?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know what we can answer however we want.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Well, then I'm gonna do like a massive cop

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Speaker 3: out and I'm just gonna say Canes. And the reason

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Speaker 3: is like a he's like, you know, a sort of

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Speaker 3: granddaddy of a lot of modern economics theory. But also

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Speaker 3: I think he was a really good writer. Yeah, and

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Speaker 3: he has some amazing quotes that I still like. Every

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Speaker 3: once in a while when I find myself being very pretentious.

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Speaker 3: I find myself using like the words are meant to

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Speaker 3: be a little wild, for they are the what is

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Speaker 3: it for? They are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking.

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Speaker 3: I think that's it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, those are some good quotes. He's a good writer,

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Speaker 2: you know, he wrote, I wasn't recently went back, and

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Speaker 2: you know, the last few years people have talked about

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Speaker 2: the so called vibe session, et cetera. He talked about

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Speaker 2: that quite a bit, in fact.

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Speaker 3: But he didn't call it a vibe session.

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Speaker 2: He didn't call it the vibe session. But what you said,

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Speaker 2: I went back and read something I forget. It might

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Speaker 2: be like a chapter twelve of the General Theory, for.

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Speaker 3: The producer says he did call it a viba.

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Speaker 2: He didn't. Our producer is trolling us.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Cale, don't do that. It's Cane's anything that is possible.

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Speaker 2: But he went back. I was reading something. He went

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Speaker 2: I think it's like a chapter twelve, one of the

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Speaker 2: really good chapters. And he says something about like how

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Speaker 2: political shifts can change people's perceptions of the economy, which

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Speaker 2: is sort of intuitive, and we see it in polls

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Speaker 2: or whatever. But then this thing you said, afterwards is

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Speaker 2: like there's sort of no point in being upset about this,

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Speaker 2: Like it's like people get angry. Are these facts about

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Speaker 2: seeming irrationality, that when the preferred party is in power

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Speaker 2: out of power, that people shift that then people change

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Speaker 2: their view about investment and impulse and all the investment

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Speaker 2: impulse and that like it sort of bothers people intellectually.

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Speaker 2: And he has like some good lines. I forget exactly

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Speaker 2: what it is every read it recently, which is like, again,

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Speaker 2: don't work yourself up trying to like get irritated at

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Speaker 2: the whims of the public, except that the whims of

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Speaker 2: the public are the whims of the public, and that

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Speaker 2: when the political shifts happen, the vibe shift, so to speak.

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Speaker 2: And this is what it means to sort of understand

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Speaker 2: the economy, which I thought is really good.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's pretty good. So you're also in the Canes camp.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'll go with Kanes.

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Speaker 3: All right, fair enough, Next.

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Speaker 11: Question, Hi, Tracy and Joe. My name is Rosalind Loubi

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Speaker 11: and I live in Westport, Connecticut. My question is whether

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Speaker 11: the podcast is going to tackle the state of the

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Speaker 11: venture capital industry as a topic in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 11: I teach a class on alternative investments to undergraduate college

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Speaker 11: kids in an economics department, and I've used your podcast

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Speaker 11: extensively in my class, and I think this would be

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Speaker 11: a great topic for you guys to dig your teeth into.

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Speaker 5: Thank you.

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Speaker 3: I agree this would be a great topic. And I

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Speaker 3: got to say whenever I hear we have a lot

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Speaker 3: of professors who will often reach out and say that

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Speaker 3: they use all lots of material to teach their students,

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Speaker 3: and I always think that, like, the students are learning

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Speaker 3: a lot more interesting things than I did at university,

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Speaker 3: Like you guys are learning about like alternative investments, and

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Speaker 3: I've learned about neoliberalism versus realism and political theory.

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Speaker 2: But oh well, well, always more to do about vcs,

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Speaker 2: for sure, and we have. So we ended the year

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Speaker 2: with some VC episodes recently, so.

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Speaker 3: We were back there. We were recently in San francisc, Go,

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Speaker 3: and we met with a few vcs while we were

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Speaker 3: out there. Joe and I enjoyed being in San Francisco.

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Speaker 3: I think we will probably be back next year. And

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Speaker 3: I'm just really intrigued, you know, partially by the whole industry,

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Speaker 3: but also the sort of job lifestyle.

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Speaker 2: I guess it seems great.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well the idea of you know, you go out,

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Speaker 3: you meet people who are doing cool things, and you

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Speaker 3: decide whether or not you want to invest in them

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Speaker 3: and then kind of take them on as a sort

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Speaker 3: of mentee. It seems fun.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, No, plenty more to do. And you know the

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Speaker 2: other thing, we've recently done some episodes, so there's some

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Speaker 2: big changes. Interest rates have gone up. It's not zerup

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Speaker 2: any more, obviously, AI sort of the new dimension. I

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Speaker 2: think the other dimension though, is that since especially post COVID,

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Speaker 2: so many people are in the game, right, so many

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Speaker 2: new entrants are trying to get VC, perhaps in part because,

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Speaker 2: as you say, the lifestyle seems pretty great. You know,

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Speaker 2: you wear those like sneakers that look very comfortable.

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Speaker 3: You just want to wear the hoodies.

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Speaker 2: The hoodies is totally fine, Like you don't really have

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Speaker 2: to like get up, and you like meet really interesting

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Speaker 2: people in probably a way that you rarely get in

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Speaker 2: most careers except journalism perhaps, Yeah, who wouldn't want to

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Speaker 2: be into it? But you have all these changes and

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Speaker 2: all this competitors, so more to do for sure on that.

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Speaker 2: And plus you know there's a lot to do on

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Speaker 2: the fact that there are a lot of tech people

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Speaker 2: in the new who are going to be entering the

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Speaker 2: new administration, So that should just be really interesting to

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Speaker 2: see how that plays out policyized.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, all right, Next question, what.

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Speaker 8: Are some of the biggest lessons you've learned from your

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Speaker 8: career that you wish you had known earlier.

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Speaker 3: That is a very good question.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I have an answer. Oh, go ahead, you know

440
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 2: what I really wish I had learned earlier. Something I've

441
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,399
Speaker 2: found that when Tracy and I interview people, the people

442
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 2: who are the smartest and have the most intelligent ideas

443
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 2: about things like the sort of best theoreticians, so to speak,

444
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 2: are also the most are frequently among the most detail

445
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:02,360
Speaker 2: oriented and assiduous with the facts and important names, dates, places,

446
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: things like that. And I think I wish I had

447
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: learned earlier in my career that there is no substitute

448
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: for names, dates, and places, having them memorized and using

449
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 2: facts upon which to build ideas.

450
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 3: That's a good one, because I think when you're sort

451
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 3: of younger, you're you get used to thinking about these

452
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,400
Speaker 3: big things who they have these great ideas, but they're

453
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 3: not that detail or technically oriented. But actually you find

454
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: that some of the people with the biggest, most interesting

455
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 3: ideas often they have all the numbers and all the facts,

456
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: and they can walk you through the entire history of

457
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 3: their path.

458
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: And learning learning facts and history and dates and times

459
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,360
Speaker 2: and places and names and acronyms does not seem as

460
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: sexy as like learning some interesting theory about how the

461
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: world works, et cetera. So when you're young, you're sort

462
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: of attracted to the former and or whatever. You know,

463
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,479
Speaker 2: you're attracted to the big ideas, But the people who

464
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: actually have really good ideas are frequently and I've seen

465
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 2: this over and over again on the podcast, very well

466
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: grounded in actual knowledge.

467
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 3: So speaking of ideas, my lesson that I wish I'd

468
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 3: learned earlier. This is a little bit more tied to journalism.

469
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 3: But you know, when I first went into journalism, it

470
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 3: was like you should be you always want to be first,

471
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 3: and you always want to be original, and that was

472
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 3: how you know, that was success in journalism. And I

473
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: think as time has gone on, sort of realized like

474
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: the chances of being first to anything. And I'm talking

475
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 3: like kind of a wave from hard news scoops. I'm

476
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: talking like scoops of ideas is what we used to

477
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 3: call them, or analysis or something like that. The chances

478
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: of being truly first and original to anything are extremely,

479
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 3: extremely low, and so I think as I've gone on,

480
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 3: I've sort of come to appreciate the importance of not

481
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 3: necessarily being first, although if that happens, absolutely fantastic, but

482
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 3: being the person to like pull it all together the best,

483
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: or explain it the best, or I don't know, write

484
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 3: it in a new way that like reaches a new audience.

485
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 3: I guess. I guess I've just become a lot more

486
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: patient with coming up with things and sort of presenting

487
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: them in new ways and not necessarily thinking that just

488
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 3: because something isn't like one hundred percent new and original,

489
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 3: that it's not worth writing.

490
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 2: I think there's a really good lesson. And journalists we're

491
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 2: very prideful people, and so the idea that's like, oh,

492
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 2: someone already said this, or someone sort of said this.

493
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 3: Someone said it in the eighth paragraph of a story

494
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 3: from six months ago, like that doesn't mean that no

495
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 3: one else in the world can ever talk or write

496
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 3: or think about it ever.

497
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 2: Again, there's a really good line in the movie Pulp

498
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,360
Speaker 2: Fiction where you know, I can't say it on there,

499
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: but he tells them not to let pride mess with

500
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 2: his head. And I think about that a lot with

501
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 2: respect to journalism.

502
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 8: All right, Next question, what advice would you give to

503
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 8: young professionals looking to make a meaningful impact in the

504
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 8: financial industry?

505
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 3: Looking to make a meaningful impact, Well, decide what that

506
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: impact is going to be. Yeah, first of all, because

507
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 3: there are different ways of having an impact. You know,

508
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 3: maybe you think you would like to reform the financial

509
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 3: industry from the inside out. That would be a pretty

510
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 3: big impact, but also a tall order. But maybe you

511
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 3: think that making an impact is generating wealth for yourself

512
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 3: and your clients. Like I think number one is probably

513
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 3: decide what the goal is exactly.

514
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, I would sort of say I might

515
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 2: take a slightly different turn, which is, I don't even

516
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: know the idea that any of us, that anyone can

517
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: know what it means to have impact in any field,

518
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 2: let alone the financial field. There's a very tall stretch.

519
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: The career advice I always sort of give to people, though,

520
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: is do whatever you're doing right now, try to do

521
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 2: it well, and that'll the better you're doing at your

522
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 2: job right now. The more likely doors will open for you.

523
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 2: And I'm a big believer in the cliche about how

524
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: the best way to make make a plan is to

525
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 2: make God laugh or sorry, the best way to make

526
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: God laugh is to make a plan. You really don't

527
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: know how the future is going to turn out. If

528
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 2: you have a plan, it's probably not going to unfold

529
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 2: that way, so better to just focus on being good.

530
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 3: That's good advice to thank you.

531
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: We got one more question.

532
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 12: Hello Joan Tracy. This is Cynthia from Vancouver, Kata. A

533
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 12: question I have for Tracy is one, if you get

534
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 12: your chicken, what kind of acid clause in market would

535
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 12: you let your chicken trade? It's not kind of all.

536
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 12: What kind of trading strategy would you let them test out?

537
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 12: And do you think they're going to beat the benchmark?

538
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 12: Thank you?

539
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 3: What kind of asset class would I let my chickens trade?

540
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 3: Do I need to explain this question or does everyone

541
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 3: know that I really want to get chickens?

542
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: One didn't chicken do some trading?

543
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 3: I'm sure someone has done experiments with chickens trading stuff before.

544
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna go with the coins. I think chickens

545
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 3: trading a variety of shit coins would be would be

546
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 3: an intro one, and I think you could probably you

547
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 3: could probably create some sort of interesting pecking mechanism for

548
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: them to choose things. And I would like to watch

549
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 3: that on a day to day basis. I think I'd

550
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 3: find it soothing.

551
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 6: Was it? There?

552
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 2: Something?

553
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 7: Though?

554
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 2: Like, there're some artists taught a chicken how to trade?

555
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 2: Am I hallucinating this?

556
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 10: Like?

557
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 2: There was some artists and like the and that they

558
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 2: like trained and then it turned out I think the

559
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 2: whole thing was a little bit fake, but that they

560
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: I can't I'm like googling it. I'm not seeing it.

561
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 3: Here's a question.

562
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 2: Those were like the beat There were some artists who

563
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: tried to see if they could turn it chicken into

564
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: a mastered trader by giving it sort of various Pavlovic

565
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 2: shocks when it made a good trade or a bad trade,

566
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: and then it put its beat down on a green

567
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 2: or red button. I might be completely hallucinating this.

568
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 3: Uh, maybe Joe, maybe I should stop taking questions.

569
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 2: All right, that's a good place to end it.

570
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 3: All right, Well, thank you everyone so much for listening

571
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 3: to all thoughts. This year. Joe and I had an

572
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 3: absolute blast as always, and thank you as well to

573
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 3: everyone who sent in questions. And let's do it all

574
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: again next here shall we leave it there?

575
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 2: Let's leave it there.

576
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the Authoughts podcast. I'm

577
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 3: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

578
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 2: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

579
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 2: Follow our producers Carman Rodriguez at Kerman Ermann Dash, Ol

580
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 2: Bennett at Dashbod and kill Brooks at Kilbrooks. And thank

581
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 2: you to our producer Moses Ondem. For more odlogs content,

582
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 2: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd lots. We have

583
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 2: transcripts of blog and a newsletter and you can chat

584
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: about all of these topics twenty four to seven in

585
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: our discord discord dot gg slash od loots.

586
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 3: And if you enjoy au thoughts, if you like it

587
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 3: when we take your call in questions, then please leave

588
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 3: us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember,

589
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 3: if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to

590
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 3: all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need

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