Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us now,
Speaker 2: Constance Hunter. We're thrilled that she could join this morning.
Speaker 2: A constant thank you. What changed yesterday? Just as simple
Speaker 2: you're writing a single paragraph today to your clients.
Speaker 1: What changed confirmation that inflation is still on its downward trajectory.
Speaker 1: That confidence was shaken about inflation when you got that
Speaker 1: data for the first three months of the year yesterday.
Speaker 1: It confirmed finally, oh, we are is starting to soften.
Speaker 1: Rent prices are starting to soften. It was a print
Speaker 1: that showed we are moving in the right direction and
Speaker 1: we are going to get rate cuts.
Speaker 2: This year. You and Julia Cornello fight like cats and
Speaker 2: dogs at micro policy perspectives. But what's the distinction of
Speaker 2: your debate when you and doctor cornetto speak.
Speaker 1: So what we're debating is which comes first?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: Does inflation allow the Fed to cut rates because they
Speaker 1: see that trajectory to two percent clearly and they cut
Speaker 1: in time? Or are they behind the curve? Are we
Speaker 1: seeing softening in the labor market that ends up overtaking
Speaker 1: the story whereby they end up being behind the curve
Speaker 1: and that has really significant impact for whether that rate
Speaker 1: cut continues to fuelable market or not. Whether we see
Speaker 1: with on the underlying economy the shape of the curve,
Speaker 1: two very different outcomes if they're before or behind the curve.
Speaker 2: Well, as an article in the Jersey Real Estate I
Speaker 2: understand there's dynamics with mortgages, but the prices are up
Speaker 2: like double digits.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we're the slowdown stuff's moving in Jersey.
Speaker 4: That's for short.
Speaker 5: What if you think whatever comes on the market constances.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of academics and market practitioners at that time,
Speaker 5: and I talked to that say the Fed's already behind
Speaker 5: Then if you look at the real time data inflation
Speaker 5: is already done. They should be cutting. Now what do
Speaker 5: you say to those folks.
Speaker 3: I think they have a very good point. They have
Speaker 3: a very good point.
Speaker 1: The problem is, I mean, I was at forecasters club
Speaker 1: yesterday and you were a.
Speaker 4: Club for forecasters. Yes, what do you guys?
Speaker 2: Once again?
Speaker 3: And Wong is the representatives.
Speaker 2: And keep it up constance.
Speaker 1: In any case, we you would be surprised how many
Speaker 1: people thought that the Fed a need to cut. That
Speaker 1: the economy is strong, and it is this K shaped
Speaker 1: economy again, which makes it very hard to interpret. Right,
Speaker 1: If you're in the top part of the K, you think, Wow,
Speaker 1: everything's great, but my stocks.
Speaker 3: Are up, I'm getting interest on my savings and.
Speaker 1: With no risk, the economy is doing really well, my
Speaker 1: house prices up. But if you're in that bottom part
Speaker 1: of the K, you're like, wow, my insurance, my car
Speaker 1: insurance just went up and I still need my car
Speaker 1: to drive to work, and I don't have the bandwidth
Speaker 1: to figure out how to push back on this or
Speaker 1: shop for a different insurance carrier that's going to give
Speaker 1: me the same coverage at a better rate. Right, You're
Speaker 1: really under pressure if you're at the bottom half of
Speaker 1: that K. That's what we saw in the New York
Speaker 1: Fed data that came out with regard to creeping up
Speaker 1: with delinquencies on credit cards, creeping up with delinquencies on
Speaker 1: auto loans. Mortgages are still low. That's obviously a very
Speaker 1: good thing.
Speaker 5: But so we got Walmart today put out some numbers
Speaker 5: which were a little bit better and expected, particularly on
Speaker 5: the top line. I always look at Walmart, it just
Speaker 5: says the neophyte is like a pretty good read on
Speaker 5: the consumer, but the consumer really is challenged, and it's
Speaker 5: that K shaped recovery here.
Speaker 4: What happened? There's nothing really the Fed can do there
Speaker 4: can it?
Speaker 3: There is nothing the Fed can do there.
Speaker 1: I mean, well, I shouldn't say, but I shouldn't say
Speaker 1: that lower lower rate. So we have an inverted yield curve,
Speaker 1: which is obviously very problematic for banks, right, and banks
Speaker 1: that's why we see such high spreads over ten years
Speaker 1: on mortgages. Banks aren't is willing to lend, and so
Speaker 1: if we had a positive sloping yell curve, ergo the
Speaker 1: front part of the curve was lower, right, we would
Speaker 1: see more willingness to lend. We'd see easier monetary conditions
Speaker 1: from Main Street. What we see is easy monetary kitchen
Speaker 1: editions for Wall Street.
Speaker 3: They're two different things.
Speaker 2: Sinson say, Ergo is still she started working with Julia Canado.
Speaker 2: It's changed everything. It okay, Atlanta. GDP now is four
Speaker 2: point two percent real GDP, which we know is a
Speaker 2: fiction and through the quarter will come down. It came
Speaker 2: down to three point eight. Where's that statistic can a
Speaker 2: migrate down to? Is if we staggered at June thirtieth.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're looking at something around a two point two
Speaker 1: two point four percent most like.
Speaker 2: We call that.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's oh, it's I mean, that's that's if you
Speaker 1: think potential GDP is one point eight or two, that's
Speaker 1: a little better than okay, right, if you compound it
Speaker 1: two tenths of a percent, better than better than trend
Speaker 1: for you know, months on end or quarters on end,
Speaker 1: that is a go.
Speaker 2: All the gains with the stimulus and the financialization of
Speaker 2: our system, are all the gains going to the halves.
Speaker 3: I don't know that that's the case.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of what we're seeing with the
Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips Act, the infrastructure is jobs
Speaker 1: to middle income people, we're seeing. We're seeing good jobs
Speaker 1: going out into the economy that are that are important.
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't say it's all going to the halves.
Speaker 5: How about on that labor market still below four percent
Speaker 5: unemployment rate, I mean, I don't is a labor market
Speaker 5: is strongest seems on that headline kind of number.
Speaker 1: So this is where we again have some concerns. So
Speaker 1: we do webscraping of earnings calls, and we monitor for
Speaker 1: intention to hire and intention to fire. And so what
Speaker 1: we're seeing is less labor hoarding. Right, Firms don't feel
Speaker 1: the need to labor hoard anymore.
Speaker 3: They've deployed.
Speaker 4: I never heard of before the last few years.
Speaker 1: But by the way, well it wasn't a thing before
Speaker 1: the last few years. It was it was because of
Speaker 1: the pandemic where where companies couldn't get workers. That once
Speaker 1: things softened up a little, they're like, well, I don't
Speaker 1: want to lose it's hard to hire, it's expensive, it's
Speaker 1: time consuming. Right, Better to reduce people's hours and keep
Speaker 1: them on the payroll for when you're going to need
Speaker 1: them later than to.
Speaker 3: Go ahead and fire them.
Speaker 1: So that's we had labor hoarding as a reaction to
Speaker 1: the pandemic.
Speaker 3: Constot but that's ending.
Speaker 2: Yep, Constans, thank you, Constance Hunter. With US macro policy
Speaker 2: perspective is we're going to do something now focus on oil,
Speaker 2: which we really know usually we're talking copper now, coppers,
Speaker 2: coppers of oil. Paul Sankee joins now just absolutely definitive
Speaker 2: in this linkage of oil economics into actually oil stocks.
Speaker 2: We'll try to cover all this yere right now, Paul,
Speaker 2: just to get to the OPEC meeting? Are you going
Speaker 2: to attend? You sometimes you do?
Speaker 6: You know this time it might go virtual actually, Tom
Speaker 6: so okay, and I wasn't prepared to commit to going
Speaker 6: even though it's the European Cup final soccer that night,
Speaker 6: June the first, it's also a Saturday.
Speaker 2: Okay, it's complex. What's the power of opek now, you
Speaker 2: know all of us have a stereotype of two oil
Speaker 2: crises in the seventies or this or that or the other.
Speaker 2: What's the power of opek right now?
Speaker 6: Well, we wrote a new theory about this which most
Speaker 6: people intuitively know, which is what really matters is not
Speaker 6: the call on OPEK, which is how people have calculated
Speaker 6: the oil market balance for years. We don't think that
Speaker 6: matters anymore as much at all as you're implying. We
Speaker 6: look the call on us unconventional because that's really the
Speaker 6: truly marginal short cycle oil. Now, of course, on top
Speaker 6: of that, you have the Saudi's willingness. We should say,
Speaker 6: everybody kind of has the ability to shut off production,
Speaker 6: but Saudi is willing to shut off production in order to.
Speaker 7: Balance the market.
Speaker 6: And OPEK is really a construct for the Saudis to
Speaker 6: feel better about having to carry the market, you know,
Speaker 6: So what they're trying to do is corral everyone else,
Speaker 6: even though in some cases, and the obvious example is Russia,
Speaker 6: you know, what they say is more or less meaningless
Speaker 6: is that you know, I won't go further than that,
Speaker 6: but you know, it's not reliable what they say essentially,
Speaker 6: which must be very frustrating to the Saudis, But essentially
Speaker 6: it is a Saudi construct in order for them to
Speaker 6: feel better about holding production off the market.
Speaker 4: Paul, what is driving the oil price these days? Is
Speaker 4: it supply? Is a demand?
Speaker 5: Does one end of that equation kind of have a
Speaker 5: little bit more sway these days?
Speaker 6: Well, Tom and I have been talking for twenty years.
Speaker 6: In fact, I'm surprised he didn't do his usual thing
Speaker 6: of hammering me for a terrible call that me and
Speaker 6: Adam Siminski.
Speaker 7: Made about Russia. Think it was the year like two thousand.
Speaker 2: It was so bad that car was so bad aged.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm sorry bresnev aged when you made that car.
Speaker 6: Continue to Conductor, saying, now, I think the big thing
Speaker 6: which is really remarkable to me in the context of
Speaker 6: that history, is that we're at all time high oil
Speaker 6: market demand.
Speaker 7: You know, so demand is an all time high.
Speaker 6: And if you'd asked me, do I think oil demand
Speaker 6: will be at one hundred and two million barrels a day?
Speaker 7: You know, one point what is it?
Speaker 6: One thy two hundred barrels a second in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 6: I would have thought you were crazy, But here we are.
Speaker 6: And that's so the demand side is truly remarkable. Now,
Speaker 6: of course, it's all about what happens at the margin,
Speaker 6: and demand is clearly weakening. So demand is good, but
Speaker 6: not not growing strongly at a record high. What's additionally
Speaker 6: absolutely remarkable. And twenty years ago we would never have
Speaker 6: guessed this was that you'd too much supply, and so
Speaker 6: as you know, there's two arguably four million barrels a
Speaker 6: day of spec capacity and OPEK, and of course we
Speaker 6: have the US as the dominant energy producer in the world,
Speaker 6: and you know, people still don't understand what an enormous
Speaker 6: deal that has been for everything that happens in the world, geopolitics,
Speaker 6: the dollar, you name it. The US performance here in
Speaker 6: order gas has been truly stunning. And the good news
Speaker 6: is that the companies have really improved themselves. They really
Speaker 6: are strong. I don't think i've seen Exon in better
Speaker 6: shape in that twenty year period.
Speaker 7: They really are doing a remarkable job and they're not allowed.
Speaker 7: You know, a company like Karnco Chevron really good stuff.
Speaker 5: So in that context, Paul, how does the US and
Speaker 5: as big producers you were just mentioning in the US,
Speaker 5: what's the interplay between them and OPEK in terms of
Speaker 5: shaping global oil supply.
Speaker 6: Well, you know, it's been controversial because obviously you saw
Speaker 6: that the FTC wouldn't allow Scott Sheffield the board of
Speaker 6: Excellon because of concerns about that, and I think frankly
Speaker 6: they were simply naive the major US CEOs at times.
Speaker 6: They didn't you know, we had covered refining for twenty
Speaker 6: years and I would host refining managements, they wouldn't be
Speaker 6: in the same room as each other because they didn't
Speaker 6: want to be accused of anything by inappropriate in terms
Speaker 6: of managing the market. But of course the EMP guys
Speaker 6: had never had any market power up to the unconventional revolution,
Speaker 6: and when we got to too much supply, they began
Speaker 6: to talk a lot too opek and that at a
Speaker 6: headline level it was actually quite innocent. But at a
Speaker 6: headline level, at an FTC level, it looks pretty bad.
Speaker 6: To be honest with you, it just doesn't look good.
Speaker 6: And so there, you know, there has been some worries
Speaker 6: about that. But broadly speaking, the key issue is the
Speaker 6: behavior of the marginal US producer who is showing capital discipline,
Speaker 6: and so US production growth has slowed and may even
Speaker 6: go into decline depending on where the oil price is.
Speaker 6: And we think that's because Saudi can't cut any more. Essentially,
Speaker 6: we think that demand weakness will ultimately cause you know,
Speaker 6: prices that force US produced to produce less.
Speaker 7: And that's to me is the dynamic or hence our
Speaker 7: called CUSP.
Speaker 6: The call on US unconventional is actually the important measure here,
Speaker 6: not the call.
Speaker 2: On open is big oil in America off your Exxon
Speaker 2: comments in the moonshot from the pandemic in sank I'm
Speaker 2: looking at Chevron right now. I got the same attribute
Speaker 2: pretty much. But is it a new big oil where
Speaker 2: you're looking at double digit returns versus single digit mediocrity.
Speaker 7: Yeah, No, that's exactly right, Tom.
Speaker 6: They're in the double digits and we always thought they
Speaker 6: could get there with capital discipline. Of course, you need
Speaker 6: oil above seventy. We're at eighty, so this is a
Speaker 6: good environment. The other thing that we're highlighting is that actually,
Speaker 6: believe it or not, there's lower oil volatility. I know
Speaker 6: it doesn't sound like it, but actually oil if volatility
Speaker 6: is falling, and that's very good for the multiples of
Speaker 6: these stocks, because you know, get very obviously get very
Speaker 6: nervous about a highly volatile commodity and whether or not.
Speaker 7: To buy the equities.
Speaker 6: What you'll notice is that we've held what we thought
Speaker 6: would be the range, which is essentially seventy WTI seventy
Speaker 6: five Brandt to eighty five WI ninety Brent.
Speaker 7: And we've held that range quite well.
Speaker 6: Very hopeful that we will continue to hold it, but
Speaker 6: of course that's dependent on this OPEC meeting that we
Speaker 6: started with because we do need TAUDI to keep holding
Speaker 6: at least a million barrels a day off the market
Speaker 6: in order to keep it balanced. In the past, as
Speaker 6: you know, COVID particularly, we saw a market share or
Speaker 6: amongst opek and that could be you know, that could
Speaker 6: be majorly volatile for all, which would be volatile to
Speaker 6: the downside if we get into that. But nobody's expecting
Speaker 6: that right now. The consensuses that will get a rollover
Speaker 6: in June first, and they may just do the meeting
Speaker 6: virtually in order to achieve that. They often do it
Speaker 6: if they want to avoid the press, and I think
Speaker 6: that's what will happen.
Speaker 7: If it doesn't, I don't think they can come more.
Speaker 6: The problem with the opening is there's only really downside here.
Speaker 2: Paul Xoi Paul Sweeney xoi off the pandemic gloom up
Speaker 2: three hundred percent per year. That's a sanky move.
Speaker 4: That was the same movie.
Speaker 5: Hey, Paul, if I'm a big global oil energy company,
Speaker 5: am I still out there looking for oil out in
Speaker 5: the ocean and or out in the middle of nowhere?
Speaker 4: Am I just going to go buy a company.
Speaker 7: You're looking because we you know incredibly.
Speaker 6: This is the other thing about the supply side is
Speaker 6: it's not just about unlocking the Permian. What we've seen here,
Speaker 6: as you know, is Guyana has been a remarkable discovery
Speaker 6: and we didn't think, you know, the peak oil argument
Speaker 6: of the two thousands that Tom and I used to
Speaker 6: talk about has really just become completely discredited. And Guyana's huge.
Speaker 6: But then if you look at Namibia, Namibia looks bigger.
Speaker 6: And if you look at a company like Portugal's Galp
Speaker 6: or Totar or Shell, they're all they're finding another Guyana
Speaker 6: might even be bigger than Guyana offshare and Namibia. So
Speaker 6: there's definitely the resurgence of off short activity because the
Speaker 6: Permian is getting more marginal in terms of its economics.
Speaker 6: You've drilled the good stuff and you're having to work
Speaker 6: through the benches over the next ten to fifteen years.
Speaker 2: Paul, I got too many more questions. Let's do this
Speaker 2: again soon, Paul sank you of course, legendary on oil.
Speaker 2: Look for him for the OPEC meeting. Was it June first?
Speaker 4: June first and first, Yeah, we.
Speaker 2: Got lots of anchathon with us with that Creed. This
Speaker 2: is the most important interview of the day. To rationalize
Speaker 2: a bull market, I'm sorry Atrathon is more important than
Speaker 2: a diamond. Good morning Joe and the team over at
Speaker 2: JP Moworgan Loatchman here with a really quick thing on
Speaker 2: our economic cycles. Do the economic cycles, Loatchmen, that you
Speaker 2: look at do they justify a third leg of a
Speaker 2: bull market?
Speaker 4: Short term?
Speaker 8: Sure? And so let's cyclical is looking at a couple
Speaker 8: of quarters. It's not looking out forever. Structurally, plenty of
Speaker 8: things to think about and to give you pause in
Speaker 8: the way things are going. But cyclically, I think we
Speaker 8: don't want to miss the forest for the trees. We
Speaker 8: were in the boonies, right, We had a really bad
Speaker 8: global industrial downturn, a pandemic and all that. But even
Speaker 8: after that, it still kept going. It was hitting Europe,
Speaker 8: it was hitting China. Remember the beginning of twenty three,
Speaker 8: everybody thought China was going to come out the global
Speaker 8: industrial left term was going to be here, YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 4: Never happened.
Speaker 8: Now at the end of twenty twenty three, our global
Speaker 8: industrial stuff, really the forward looking stuff, started lifting nicely.
Speaker 8: And that's a nice backdrop for Europe. It's a nice
Speaker 8: backdrop for China. It's a nice backdrop for goods demand.
Speaker 8: And I hear all of the happy talk around inflation. Okay,
Speaker 8: the rent stuff is not right, the insurance stuff is
Speaker 8: not right.
Speaker 2: It's going to come down.
Speaker 8: Everybody assumes, presumes that goods inflation is no problem. And
Speaker 8: what we're seeing is if global industrial growth is turning up,
Speaker 8: and it is, that puts a bid on good.
Speaker 2: Paul, the chart here. We can't show it on radio.
Speaker 2: It doesn't We can show it on YouTube, but it
Speaker 2: doesn't work on radio. A lotman has a chart of
Speaker 2: the five year ahead GDP forecast. Yeah, and the only
Speaker 2: thing moving up is India in the United States, Paul.
Speaker 2: Everything else is stable, Japan's resilient. That but it's it's
Speaker 2: this US exceptionalism.
Speaker 4: That's where I wanted to go.
Speaker 7: Paul.
Speaker 2: He's breaking a rule coming in here with highlighted research notes.
Speaker 2: Can you can you explain to him.
Speaker 9: The lines of moving Paul, put that up in front
Speaker 9: of the camera for YouTube.
Speaker 2: We don't allow this, Okay, pink highlighters work. The banned continued.
Speaker 5: So about that US exceptionalism, how unusual is that for
Speaker 5: the US economy to generally be doing well three four
Speaker 5: percent whatever? It is versus your particularly Germany boy, and
Speaker 5: then and then China.
Speaker 8: How is that unusual to have that decoupling, if you will, Well,
Speaker 8: certainly the last couple decades it is. This is the
Speaker 8: breakdown in China is off the charts, and you can
Speaker 8: see that with the pink highlights. Germany doesn't look good.
Speaker 7: It's the sick man of Europe again.
Speaker 2: US is up?
Speaker 7: In India is up? Now, US is up.
Speaker 8: I think part of it we have to look at
Speaker 8: the excess spending. I mean, that's a lot of money
Speaker 8: we pushed out over the last couple of years, and
Speaker 8: that may be influencing some things. And certainly India, you
Speaker 8: know the story. They've got some population growth and they
Speaker 8: have an opportunity to do investment for other productivity enhancing things,
Speaker 8: and so that's helping India. Everybody else is kind of
Speaker 8: in trouble on population growth and the productivity growth is
Speaker 8: you know, a big question mark, it's not a given.
Speaker 4: What do you tell your clients these days about China?
Speaker 5: I hear everything from uninvestable, which is kind of where
Speaker 5: I am to.
Speaker 4: You can't ignore it. You got to be there. How
Speaker 4: do you guys think about it?
Speaker 8: Well, structurally, you've got a problem. Ideologically, I'm not so
Speaker 8: sure right there. You know, you don't want someone making
Speaker 8: an edict and taking your money away. So those are real,
Speaker 8: big risk factors. Cyclically green light. Since the end of
Speaker 8: last year, cyclically it's been a green light. You have
Speaker 8: this global industrial growth upturn. About twenty percent of the
Speaker 8: Chinese economy gears off of exports, which are gearing right.
Speaker 7: Those are gearing now.
Speaker 2: Right now with US worldwide across this nation. Atathon Economic
Speaker 2: Economic psycho Research Institute EKREA, I got to brain freeze there, folks.
Speaker 2: It's been ring. We haven't seen the sun for four days.
Speaker 4: Give me a break.
Speaker 2: Coming up next, James Diamond after a latchman Atathon with
Speaker 2: Francy Laqua in Paris. I was showing a chair up
Speaker 2: today at work, the famed Ibbotson chart of Yale University, which,
Speaker 2: as Gartman would say, is from the lower left to
Speaker 2: the upper right. It is the exceptionalism of American capitalism, aren't.
Speaker 2: Goes back to Jeffreymore in the founding of ECKRE, how
Speaker 2: do you treat the immovable force which is stocks up?
Speaker 8: Look, there is an upward trend which is undeniable in
Speaker 8: the US economy over decades like that, and there's no
Speaker 8: great reason for that to change.
Speaker 4: On top of.
Speaker 8: That, you have cycles, and right now we were to
Speaker 8: the upside, we can easily flip and go to the
Speaker 8: downside in a couple of quarters. This is a very
Speaker 8: tactical framework that we're using, and we're overlaying that on
Speaker 8: the structural Say when at your back that you're describing
Speaker 8: on this closed cycle, that Paul's question, like, how's the
Speaker 8: US bucking the trend up when everybody else is going down?
Speaker 7: You know?
Speaker 2: Part of it?
Speaker 8: Sure, the innovation? Do you say it's stimulus? The share
Speaker 8: of debt like the room. Look, we haven't there's you know,
Speaker 8: it's a tired phrase. You know, off the charts. We
Speaker 8: haven't seen this before. But the amount of deck growth
Speaker 8: is significant, and it's different if you look at how
Speaker 8: the US reacted to the pandemic and post pandemic era,
Speaker 8: right it was different from Europe and from China. China
Speaker 8: they did their big investing after the.
Speaker 2: Just because of time here we're waiting for mister Diamond.
Speaker 2: I want to tie Latchman Antathonos families identified with New
Speaker 2: York City into James Diamond who's bank is identified with
Speaker 2: New York City? Do you believe an American exceptionalists? Of course,
Speaker 2: that's a theme that.
Speaker 8: Of course right now, Oh no, no, I have no doubt
Speaker 8: about that that that hasn't waivered at all. But it
Speaker 8: doesn't mean I'm not concerned about deck growth. It doesn't
Speaker 8: mean I'm questioning, like, how real is some of the
Speaker 8: some of the growth in light of the approaching eight
Speaker 8: trillion dollars of excess spending. Maybe you could argue the
Speaker 8: policy is that we should be investing in this and that,
Speaker 8: and that's fine, but let's recognize that.
Speaker 7: And so we just had that last year.
Speaker 8: Is this tug of wark between a big cyclical push
Speaker 8: downside to the downside and an offset from these non
Speaker 8: cyclical items. And we've got some demographic stuff where jobs
Speaker 8: and health employment has been extremely strong, right, that's growing
Speaker 8: at four percent, that kept us out of recession.
Speaker 2: We're putting make Does the latchman have makeup on? I
Speaker 2: don't think just makeup on. Francine's got out the lorel
Speaker 2: she's putting girlen or something on. Jamie Diamondo. They're setting
Speaker 2: up the makeup and they're in Paris. Here. I want
Speaker 2: to say this is the excellence of what we're doing
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg. We had David Solomon and Brian moynihan with
Speaker 2: Jonathan Ferrell here the other day is France does what
Speaker 2: is it? Paul like a capitalism week before the Olympics.
Speaker 9: I think it's people are I will, I mean, Eckery's
Speaker 9: thinking of setting up a Paris office sixth Aaron d
Speaker 9: Smart across the river?
Speaker 2: What do you think? Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 7: Let's expand let's go across the river.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I just think it's booming. I've got
Speaker 2: some offspring over there, and I'm very proud of them there.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. France is like a different environment right now. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and right now.
Speaker 8: Look, structurally there's a lot of issues that remain and
Speaker 8: I don't want to underplay those. But cyclically, you've got
Speaker 8: a global industrial upturn, so you have some demanded and
Speaker 8: I think that's maybe the surprise with goods inflation down
Speaker 8: the line.
Speaker 2: What does your weekly indicators say about the real yield.
Speaker 8: To the upside, it's still a little to it's still
Speaker 8: a real yield.
Speaker 2: Signals of normal market.
Speaker 8: Well, look you can't I mean, you'd like to have
Speaker 8: your cake and eat it too. But it doesn't always
Speaker 8: work out that way. If you have growth going up,
Speaker 8: it's not always that inflation just goes to the downside
Speaker 8: and you have this immaculate disinflation. It doesn't work that way.
Speaker 8: So I would say the I think we're banking on
Speaker 8: the global industrial upturn and we're concerned about the knock
Speaker 8: on effects for prices, and so that runs into the
Speaker 8: central bank narratives, which is, hey, we're cutting thank you
Speaker 8: so much.
Speaker 7: This teo.
Speaker 2: Now with our Bloomberg newspaper report, the newspapers are so strong,
Speaker 2: I got them front loaded into tomorrow.
Speaker 3: What do we got, Lisa, Well, you guys touched upon this.
Speaker 3: I want to dig a little bit deeper. This is
Speaker 3: the Bloomberg story.
Speaker 10: Paramount Holding talks with Amazon about an expanded partnership. So
Speaker 10: it's a lot to keep up with Paramount now it is,
Speaker 10: But now they're saying that these talks it could amount
Speaker 10: to nothing, but it could include bundled sales of channels
Speaker 10: advertising to I didn't realize that Paramount Plus already one
Speaker 10: of the more popular choices on Amazon's channel stores. So
Speaker 10: if you look on their channel store, they let customers
Speaker 10: subscribe to those things like Stars Max, Discovery Plus, but
Speaker 10: Paramount Plus is on there. Paramount also a large supplier
Speaker 10: of TV programs to Amazon's Prime.
Speaker 3: Video streaming service.
Speaker 10: So the relationship is there. It's just about where they're
Speaker 10: going to take it. I guess from here is that basically.
Speaker 5: I think that's it. I think that's it. That everybody's
Speaker 5: talking to everybody. Paramount also had some discussions with Comcasts
Speaker 5: about it streaming joint venture. So it's put it under
Speaker 5: the context of everybody's talking to everybody because you're trying
Speaker 5: to figure out how do I get profitability higher in
Speaker 5: my streaming business, how do I reduce churn?
Speaker 4: Maybe I need to bundle them with it about.
Speaker 2: Thirteen suits, I mean, netflixes x number of streaming people,
Speaker 2: and Paramount's like.
Speaker 5: Okay, Paramoun's good, they're getting there. And you know, again,
Speaker 5: Nielsen just came out with some data earlier in the
Speaker 5: week to coincide with the upfronts and just showed that
Speaker 5: the share of streaming and we saw that Disney was
Speaker 5: number one, YouTube number two. Correct, But you know, the
Speaker 5: next four or five are all credible, They're all right
Speaker 5: there and they're all growing.
Speaker 4: So but I kind of.
Speaker 10: Like the bundle idea, though, I mean it saves in
Speaker 10: the long run because then it's a better price for
Speaker 10: more than job.
Speaker 4: I mean, I look at home, Brian Robert father did
Speaker 4: this streamen.
Speaker 2: We don't have Max Ken saying why don't we have
Speaker 2: paramount plus? I's like, you want to watch hundred one Dalmatian?
Speaker 2: So what do we got next? You can't win.
Speaker 10: This is from the Wall Street Journal. So more workers
Speaker 10: getting to the office earlier to press the boss. They're
Speaker 10: starting at five am, five am for.
Speaker 5: Shock, what time shot like two or three before four o'clock?
Speaker 10: No, four o'clock. I'm here, but don't have two thirty.
Speaker 10: So but here's the thing for regular folks who don't
Speaker 10: have to work a morning show. Okay, they're shooting off
Speaker 10: email before the sun comes up.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 10: There was a study that actually showed twenty one percent
Speaker 10: users logging on between five am and nine am this year,
Speaker 10: So that's up from nineteen percent twenty twenty one. Some
Speaker 10: more people logging on before. But they say they impress
Speaker 10: the boss. Right, They say they get a leg up
Speaker 10: on colleagues before that nine am meeting because they have
Speaker 10: more done, they have less distractions, so they get more
Speaker 10: done early.
Speaker 2: And Paul, you'll appreciate this. I remember when I first
Speaker 2: dreamed Bloomberg, the demand for a five am five am
Speaker 2: train from the north was so great they had to
Speaker 2: put on other new trains because everybody started. And I
Speaker 2: had the clearest memory of going, wait, the day starts
Speaker 2: at seven thirty, and then all of a sudden, I'm
Speaker 2: in the office watching the sunrise at six am, and
Speaker 2: everything listen to the good point here this everything shifted
Speaker 2: to the morning, including you know the act we do.
Speaker 4: A it's a global business.
Speaker 5: You got to deal with Europe, you got to have
Speaker 5: to deal with But the question now, for okay, you're
Speaker 5: starting your work day at five am.
Speaker 4: Is it from home or is it from the and
Speaker 4: I get from home.
Speaker 5: I saw a Bank of America yesterday was out with
Speaker 5: some research that showed occupancy of offices seems to have
Speaker 5: plateawed here at around fifty percent. They're not calling it.
Speaker 5: VIA's calling it that's kind of the new normal.
Speaker 2: Excuse me, if you start at five am, when does.
Speaker 10: The day, Well, you can get your afternoons early, that's
Speaker 10: what they're saying. So for example, like me, I'm in early,
Speaker 10: I get to go home and watch my kids' games,
Speaker 10: you know, for sports, or get to you know, do
Speaker 10: other things, and then I have to.
Speaker 2: Life.
Speaker 10: That's congestion pricing. That's what we're talking about. New York
Speaker 10: Times another law. So this is from a group New
Speaker 10: Yorkers against Congestion Pricing. Tax I think John Tucker might
Speaker 10: be behind no but their loss. And they're arguing that
Speaker 10: the tolling program could shift traffic and pollution to poor
Speaker 10: minority neighborhoods things like Lower East Side, East Harlem, in
Speaker 10: the South Bronx, because people are going to start going
Speaker 10: the toll free around taking the FDR drive to avoid that.
Speaker 10: They're also saying small businesses are going to be affected
Speaker 10: because they're going to have less customers, higher costs for deliveries.
Speaker 10: It's going to cost them to This is what this
Speaker 10: group is saying. Like proof, they are saying that the
Speaker 10: Congestion Pricing did not find the proof before doing this,
Speaker 10: So they're saying that they didn't do these certain studies
Speaker 10: that they should have done to prove that this is
Speaker 10: going to be tough.
Speaker 2: I'm going to stay out of it. I'm not informed.
Speaker 2: I can't make it informed comments Tucker, but I don't
Speaker 2: think anybody knows. I think it's a hell of it.
Speaker 4: You can look to London, I guess, and probably learnt.
Speaker 3: That's really happening.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I'm not sure.
Speaker 10: The next one, last one, beer sellers using this loophole. Okay,
Speaker 10: cannabis drinks market. So beers are being infused with cannabis
Speaker 10: and this is a.
Speaker 3: New thing yet because there's this loophole.
Speaker 4: So let me explain this quickly. Okay.
Speaker 10: So they were inadvertently legalized as part of a twenty
Speaker 10: eighteen farm bill.
Speaker 3: You're saying, what am I talking about?
Speaker 10: Okay, So it allowed hemp to be grown to manufacture
Speaker 10: things like clothing. But drink makers they use the loophole
Speaker 10: to distill hemp into this concentrate, like think of turning
Speaker 10: grapes into wine. So that's what they're doing. So alcohol
Speaker 10: is distributor is they're lobbying to keep that loophole open
Speaker 10: because they want to keep doing this because they're saying
Speaker 10: alcohol sales are down, so they're helping that this might
Speaker 10: help boost sales.
Speaker 4: Weed infused beer THHC.
Speaker 10: Yes, it's like a third ten zero.
Speaker 4: Point three wise you're doing this.
Speaker 10: No, it's there's a company cycling frog you know, like
Speaker 10: all these smaller on smaller distributors.
Speaker 2: Lisa mud say, thank you so much. The newspaper's already
Speaker 2: got one on the hopper for tomorrow as well. This
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