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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketas live weekdays at noon

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Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: There is quite the intersection between what's happening on Wall

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Speaker 2: Street or how Wall Street is reading what's happening in Washington,

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Speaker 2: as President Trump is trying to continue his tariff regime,

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Speaker 2: just using different authorities that involved a lot of numbers.

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Speaker 2: After the Supreme Court, of course, delt him a major

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Speaker 2: blow on Friday, ruling the tariffs he had placed under

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Speaker 2: the Emergency Economic Powers Act AIPA unconstitutional or illegal. So

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Speaker 2: now we're onto section one twenty two, potentially Section two

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Speaker 2: thirty two, Section three oh one. Those later two, though, Joe,

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Speaker 2: of course, require investigation, whereas the Section one twenty two

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Speaker 2: tariffs are set to.

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Speaker 3: Go into effects. The alphabet soup and Washington were not enough.

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Speaker 3: I'm getting a popsicle headache. If you are, you're not alone.

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Speaker 3: It is one twenty two for now, but he's got

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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty days there if you want to

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Speaker 3: add more numbers, which is why many are thinking that

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Speaker 3: three OHO one is going to be the longer term

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Speaker 3: solution here.

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Speaker 4: But that involves an investigation.

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Speaker 3: It's going to take some time, Kayley, and the markets

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Speaker 3: don't love waiting in conditions like these, So let's start

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Speaker 3: our coverage before we talk to Michael McKee with Jeff

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Speaker 3: Mason Bloomberg, White House correspondent. He's on the North lawn

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Speaker 3: right now, which reminds me to tell you that Mayor

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Speaker 3: Mom Donnie of New York will be holding a news

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Speaker 3: briefing about fifteen minutes from now on the storm cleanup.

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Speaker 3: We didn't get nearly as much as New York here

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Speaker 3: in the nation's capital, which allows us to talk to

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Speaker 3: Jeff outdoors today.

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Speaker 4: It's great to see you, Jeff.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if we should assume that this is

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Speaker 3: going to be the case for the next one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty days or how long this three TOZHO one

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Speaker 3: investigation is going to take.

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Speaker 4: But what's the White House preparing for?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think I think you're right to say that

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Speaker 5: they're basically wanting to have something in place to make

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Speaker 5: up for what they lost on Friday, which was the

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Speaker 5: broader executive authority that President Trump has taken for himself

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Speaker 5: on trade and on tariffs since the beginning of his

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Speaker 5: administration that the Supreme.

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Speaker 6: Court struck down.

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Speaker 5: So they haven't said specifically what the plan is other

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Speaker 5: than what he told everyone in the White House Press

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Speaker 5: Corps at the press conference on Friday, which is that

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Speaker 5: they basically have the Plan B and those are all

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Speaker 5: of these other authorities that you were just referencing. I

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Speaker 5: don't think he's going to walk away from that in

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Speaker 5: less than one hundred and fifty days. What I think

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Speaker 5: they're going to do is try to have something in

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Speaker 5: place that's more permanent by the time that that deadline passes.

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess it becomes a question of can they

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Speaker 2: do so, Jeff. We've seen Section two thirty two investigations

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Speaker 2: open before and concluded, and tariff's gone into place as

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Speaker 2: a result. How much can this process be escalated fast

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Speaker 2: tracked if they're trying to make sure that the revenue

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Speaker 2: gap does not actually grow.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a great question.

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Speaker 5: I don't really know the answer, but what I do

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Speaker 5: know that there's political will to do it as fast

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Speaker 5: as they possibly can. But of course, having been having

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Speaker 5: lost this case at the Supreme Court on Friday.

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Speaker 6: They have to do it legally.

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Speaker 5: They have to follow the statutes and the laws and

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Speaker 5: the regulations that require the investigations that you were just referencing.

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Speaker 5: So I'm the wrong guy to say how long each

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Speaker 5: of those investigations are required to take.

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Speaker 6: But for sure this is.

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Speaker 5: A president who will be putting a lot of pressure

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Speaker 5: on his trade team to do them as fast as

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Speaker 5: legally possible so that he can maintain that revenue stream

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Speaker 5: that you mentioned.

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Speaker 2: All right, Jeff Mason, never the wrong guy. We appreciate

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Speaker 2: your reporting from the White House North Lawn of course,

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Speaker 2: correspondent for us here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 6: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: And as we consider the political calculations the President and

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Speaker 2: the administration are making around tariffs, clearly their decisions will

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Speaker 2: have economic consequences as well, and I'm imagining that's featuring

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Speaker 2: pretty heavily in the discussion at the location where we

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Speaker 2: find Bloomberg's Michael McKee. He is joining us live from

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Speaker 2: here in Washington, but at the National Association a Business

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Speaker 2: Economics Conference NABE, which Mike, I am sure the market

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Speaker 2: driving forces we're looking at today, both this TEARFF conversation,

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Speaker 2: as well as artificial intelligence are also a lot of

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Speaker 2: what you're hearing about.

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Speaker 7: There's a lot of talk about both here, Kayley, but

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Speaker 7: it's really the labor market that has caught most people's

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Speaker 7: attention for the moment, because the folks here that they're

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Speaker 7: paying attention to are central bankers. Governor Chris Waller of

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Speaker 7: the Federal Reserve this morning saying that he's not sure

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Speaker 7: the strong January payroll numbers are a trend, and he

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Speaker 7: wants to see the February payroll numbers before deciding whether

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Speaker 7: he would advocate for another cut at the March meeting.

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Speaker 7: His view on the tariffs is they don't change much

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Speaker 7: under this fifteen percent section one twenty two method that

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Speaker 7: the president is using now, and there's no real certainty

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Speaker 7: about what the president's going to be able to do

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Speaker 7: with the various other sections he might imply, but to

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Speaker 7: Waller doesn't matter because even if they provide some more inflation,

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Speaker 7: he still says it's going to be a one off

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Speaker 7: kind of thing. Prices go up once and then stop rising,

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Speaker 7: so he's going to look through it. He's not particularly

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Speaker 7: worried about it. Yet, we're also hearing right now from

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Speaker 7: Christine Legard who said that basically Europe is kind of

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Speaker 7: behind the US on AI but has enormous potential out there,

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Speaker 7: and Europe is trying its best to get its act

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Speaker 7: together and to move forward and keep up with the

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Speaker 7: US so AI and trade and tariffs and the labor market.

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Speaker 7: The big concerns here right now.

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Speaker 3: Well, that seems to be plenty to go around here,

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Speaker 3: Michael McKee. And if the real worry is not about

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Speaker 3: tariffs at least when it comes to mister Waller, I'm

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Speaker 3: wondering how we rationalize this reaction in the marketplace and

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Speaker 3: news today, for instance from the European Union that they're

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Speaker 3: going to put the trade deal that they struck with

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Speaker 3: the United States on ice until they learn more.

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Speaker 4: Doesn't that further cloud the picture?

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Speaker 8: Oh?

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, it clouds the picture. It makes it more uncertain.

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Speaker 7: Waller and Christine Lagard both acknowledge that. But the problem

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Speaker 7: is there's no sense on when there will be clarity

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Speaker 7: because we don't know how long these investigations will take.

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Speaker 7: We don't know what the administration is going to come

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Speaker 7: up with at the end of that, so it just

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Speaker 7: leaves everybody sort.

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Speaker 6: Of up in the air.

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Speaker 7: And just continuing on the way they have been now

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Speaker 7: and it probably means we don't see huge price increases

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Speaker 7: right yet, but we could down the road.

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Speaker 6: So that's something to keep track of.

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Speaker 7: And then, of course is the question of what will

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Speaker 7: AI do to the labor market down the road.

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Speaker 6: There have been some sessions.

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Speaker 7: On that as well, and again nobody knows. This is

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Speaker 7: a very uncertain time for economists as well as politicians.

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Speaker 3: Uncharted is a word we like to use when we

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Speaker 3: talk to Michael mckhee. It's great to have you back, sir.

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Speaker 3: We thank you and good to have you in town

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Speaker 3: at the Name conference Bloomberg in a national economics and

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Speaker 3: policy correspondent. As we add the voice now Lori Wallach,

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Speaker 3: the director of the Rethink Trade Probe, that American Economic

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Speaker 3: Liberties Project. With our eyes on tariffs and what might

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Speaker 3: come next, Laurie, it's good to have you with us

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Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio one twenty two three

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Speaker 3: oh one. Do you even care when we're talking about

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Speaker 3: tariffs at ten or fifteen percent?

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Speaker 9: The President is looking to re establish that same rate

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Speaker 9: of tariffs that he had under a EPA, and there

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Speaker 9: is a smortgage Board of different congressional delegations of tariff

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Speaker 9: authority that I suspect they're going to sequence into place

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Speaker 9: to try and achieve that outcome.

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Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider what outcome President Trump would

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Speaker 2: like to get, specifically, what he would like to elicit

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Speaker 2: from our trading partners in the form of deals. The

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Speaker 2: President took to True Social earlier this morning to say,

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Speaker 2: any country that wants to quote play games with the

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Speaker 2: ridiculous Supreme Court decision, especially those that have ripped off

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Speaker 2: the USA for years and even decades, will be met

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Speaker 2: with a much higher tariff and worse than which they

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Speaker 2: just recently agreed to. I think he is alluding to

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Speaker 2: the EU here, Laurie. But let me consider how high

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Speaker 2: those tariffs can go. Is there a limit under these

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Speaker 2: other authorities, Because of course with AIPA, he just kind

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Speaker 2: of slapped whatever rate he felt appropriate. Can he do

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Speaker 2: so using other legal grounds?

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Speaker 9: There are other legal grounds that actually allow quite high tariffs.

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Speaker 9: So the unexplored i EPA like instrument is a law

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Speaker 9: called Section three thirty eight of the Trade Act of

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Speaker 9: nineteen thirty.

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Speaker 10: It hasn't been used since World War Two.

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Speaker 9: No one knows how it would go if we're challenged

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Speaker 9: in court, which certainly it would.

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Speaker 10: Be, but that would take many months.

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Speaker 9: That allows up to fifty five zero percent for an

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Speaker 9: unlimited amount of time on a presidential basically self finding

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Speaker 9: of a fact of discrimination against the interests of the

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Speaker 9: United States, so that one's very loose. The other provisions

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Speaker 9: section two thirty two, which isn't you have to have

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Speaker 9: a report finding a national purity basis for raising tariffs.

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Speaker 9: In section three oh one, which requires an investigation, you

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Speaker 9: need to find basically unfair practices.

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Speaker 10: Against the United States of a particular country.

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Speaker 9: Those mechanisms have more procedures on the front end, but

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Speaker 9: they don't have limits on the back end as with

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Speaker 9: respect to how high the tariffs can go. And all

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Speaker 9: of those have an unlimited time. So Section one twenty

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Speaker 9: two is maximum fifteen percent for a balance of payments

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Speaker 9: problem for only five months. The other ones, the three

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Speaker 9: of them three oh one and two thirty two, have

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Speaker 9: gone through the courts and have been declared fine three

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Speaker 9: thirty eight more of a mystery, but lots of other

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Speaker 9: delegate authorities for a president to use tariffs.

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Speaker 3: And for those other three approaches, how long would these

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Speaker 3: investigations last?

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Speaker 4: Might they outlast the midterms.

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Speaker 9: Section three point thirty eight, again not used for since

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Speaker 9: before I was born, is a process that can be

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Speaker 9: very speedy. I guess the outlying question as far as

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Speaker 9: how long it could stay in places if it got

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Speaker 9: challenged in court, how long it would take before you'd

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Speaker 9: have a ruling that would take it down if it

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Speaker 9: were ruled against. As far as sections two thirty two

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Speaker 9: in sections three oh one, it's probably unhelpful to say.

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Speaker 10: But it kind of depends.

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Speaker 9: It depends how many countries, how many issues, and also.

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Speaker 10: The quality of the investigation.

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Speaker 9: There have not been cases challenging the qualities of the investigations.

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Speaker 9: A very good Section three oh one investigation can be

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Speaker 9: done in four or five months.

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Speaker 10: Typically they take longer. It just depends how many people

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Speaker 10: they're going to put on it.

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Speaker 9: I think that, you know, as far as the midterms,

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Speaker 9: the big X factor is as far as Section one

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Speaker 9: twenty two, the one hundred and fifty days runs out

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Speaker 9: on July twenty fourth, and then it goes to Congress

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Speaker 9: to try and extend it, and that could really make

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Speaker 9: an interesting political problem because members of Contract have to

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Speaker 9: go on the record right then about whether they want

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Speaker 9: to extend that authority or.

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Speaker 2: Not well, And we've already heard from the Senate Minority

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Speaker 2: Leader Chuck Schumer, who has suggested Democrats will not vote

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Speaker 2: for an extension. That probably makes it a debt on

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Speaker 2: a rival proposition in the Senate. When we consider the

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Speaker 2: sixty vote threshold on Section one twenty two, you mentioned

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Speaker 2: how that will run out in July. Is there time

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Speaker 2: between now in July for that to be challenged in

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Speaker 2: the court of law when we consider the authority he's

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Speaker 2: using or or the justification for using that authority. Are

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Speaker 2: we in a balance of payments crisis right now? Could

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Speaker 2: that not end up in court?

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Speaker 9: So I recommend folks should look at the actual proclamation

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Speaker 9: they issued. They actually have thought it through, and they

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Speaker 9: make a case that is not wrong. It is a

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Speaker 9: case that maybe could get challenged. Almost certainly, to answer

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Speaker 9: the direct question, almost certainly a lossuit's going to get filed.

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Speaker 9: But in the five months it seems extremely unlikely that

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Speaker 9: will work its way through the courts to a point

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Speaker 9: where there it be.

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Speaker 10: A final order.

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Speaker 9: So, yes, a challenge, but no, not probably a decision

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Speaker 9: as far as the merits of the case. It's not

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Speaker 9: the people who are saying this is ridiculous. They're basically

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Speaker 9: looking back at the time period when that statue was written,

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Speaker 9: and we were just coming off of a gold based currency,

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Speaker 9: and those conditions obviously were not literally in a balance

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Speaker 9: of payments crisis in the sense of checks going to bounce,

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Speaker 9: but in the sense of what a balance of payments

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Speaker 9: crisis is with respect to our overall current account balance

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Speaker 9: and other factors. You can make the case, which they

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Speaker 9: do in this proclamation, and economists watching everyone look and

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Speaker 9: come back to US.

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Speaker 10: Trade lawyers and say what you think. But yeah, I

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Speaker 10: think that it will get challenged.

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Speaker 9: I also think though, that they've got other potential laws

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Speaker 9: to put in place that they could do in that

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Speaker 9: period of time. The much bigger X factor, honestly is

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Speaker 9: the refunds.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm glad you just brought that up, because as

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Speaker 3: we wait to hear from the Mayor of New York,

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Speaker 3: he's going to be holding a news conference any moment

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Speaker 3: now on the storm cleanup.

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Speaker 8: LORI.

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Speaker 4: There are huge questions about refunds.

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Speaker 3: No one's got any answers, and we know a lot

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Speaker 3: of lawsuits have already been filed and were filed in

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Speaker 3: advance of the Supreme Court ruling.

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Speaker 4: We heard earlier today from the chairman of the Ways.

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Speaker 3: And Means Committee in the House, was speaking with us

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Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio with his thoughts on

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Speaker 3: the prospect of paying back all this money.

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Speaker 1: Listen.

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Speaker 11: In regards to the tariffs, I think it's very certain

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Speaker 11: there's probably not going to be any refunds. I don't

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Speaker 11: see a pathway in Congress that there's going to be refunds.

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Speaker 11: And so you're going to look at over the course

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Speaker 11: of President Trump's administration, he's going to continue to use

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Speaker 11: those tariff revenues to bring down the deficit.

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Speaker 3: What do you think about Congressman Jason Smith there, Laurie,

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Speaker 3: And if you're a costco, for instance, and you already

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Speaker 3: filed suit, does that put you at the front of

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Speaker 3: the line potentially?

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Speaker 9: So I suspect there are a lot of people in

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Speaker 9: board rooms who have a very different take than Chairman

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Speaker 9: Smith about that question. And honestly, as a trade lawyer,

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Speaker 9: I would say the question is not an if, it's

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Speaker 9: actually a how question. There's a history of tariffs being

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Speaker 9: refunded in their different mechanisms. The thing that's particularly thorny

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Speaker 9: with this situation as compared to the usual situation, which

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Speaker 9: is say a preference program like the Generalized System of

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Speaker 9: Preferences doesn't get renewed and so you have to pay

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Speaker 9: in for an extra year when it should have been

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Speaker 9: renewed and you wouldn't have had to pay.

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Speaker 10: Then that money comes back.

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Speaker 9: In this instance, the teriffs were so broad on so

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Speaker 9: many goods, affecting so many countries that actually there's a

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Speaker 9: big question where there's a gap between who is booked

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Speaker 9: at customs for the entity that pay to tariff and

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Speaker 9: who actually paid. So as a practical matter, it's going

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Speaker 9: to be extremely difficult to figure out a fair way

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Speaker 9: to do it. So Costco is so big that in

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Speaker 9: some circumstances, I bet their procurement people would fess up

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Speaker 9: to the fact they'd probe made their foreign suppliers cover

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Speaker 9: a lot of the tariff by either giving them a

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Speaker 9: lower price than the good or by literally paying a

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Speaker 9: payment to have to cover that expense as a condition

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Speaker 9: for continue to source from that particular tariff entity overseas.

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Speaker 9: So the big companies that have dominant market positions and

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Speaker 9: basically monopoly power could avoid paying some of them. Then

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Speaker 9: not saying Costco did passed on expenses to consumers, so

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Speaker 9: even though they didn't pay, they raise their prices. And

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Speaker 9: then you've got companies that raise prices that didn't get

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Speaker 9: charged tariffs at all. So you've got a big question

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Speaker 9: of how the consumer is made whole, how you don't

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Speaker 9: end up with windfall profits from companies that didn't.

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Speaker 10: Pay but are booked is paying.

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Speaker 9: And then there's always the question for small businesses, what

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Speaker 9: is a system that hopefully is even less complicated than

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Speaker 9: like paycheck protection, so they don't have to.

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Speaker 6: Go to court.

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Speaker 2: Well, Laurie, when we consider these questions around refunds, I

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Speaker 2: would point to what a former senator from Ohio hoping

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Speaker 2: to be Senator from Ohio again shared. Brown the Democrat,

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Speaker 2: is out on x posting about today. He says he's

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Speaker 2: calling for a thirteen hundred and thirty six dollars refund

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Speaker 2: for every Ohio household saying that the reckless tariffs ruled

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Speaker 2: illegal by the Supreme Court cost ohioans six and a

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Speaker 2: half billion dollars. That's not really how this will work, though,

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Speaker 2: right you aren't going to see direct checks to households.

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Speaker 9: Like that, you know, given the complexity always just describing

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Speaker 9: that's his fair a way of doing it, honestly, really,

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Speaker 9: and anything that's going to come out one way or another,

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Speaker 9: there's going to be an unfairness. And given how many

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Speaker 9: people have been hit by rising prices, some of it

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Speaker 9: again price gouging using the cover of tariffs. I mean,

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Speaker 9: the beef situation is a classic. Eighty percent of the

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Speaker 9: beef wheat in the US is grown and processed here,

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Speaker 9: so only twenty percent of imports. And of that half

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Speaker 9: of it has always been duty free because it comes

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Speaker 9: from Mexico and Canada, which from day one under the

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Speaker 9: Trump tariffs have had a duty free exception.

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Speaker 10: So we've seen the prices of beef go through the ceiling.

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Speaker 10: Has nothing to.

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Speaker 9: Do with tariffs, yet it's been claimed by the grocery stores,

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Speaker 9: the meat packers, Oh, we can't help you, it's tariffs.

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Speaker 10: We have to pass through the price.

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Speaker 9: So if you had, for instance, the costcos and those

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Speaker 9: guys who have the wherewithal to sue getting back the money.

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Speaker 10: But actually a lot of consumers have been the ones.

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Speaker 9: Who in the end paid, and some of the big

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Speaker 9: retailers didn't pay at all because they had the leverage

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Speaker 9: to make someone else carry it.

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Speaker 10: For them.

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Speaker 9: How is that fairer than Senator Brown's idea of givving

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Speaker 9: of white check.

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Speaker 3: Wow, Laurie, it's fascinating and refreshing to speak with someone

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Speaker 3: who knows as much about this as you do, because

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Speaker 3: there are a lot of armchair experts in Washington right

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Speaker 3: now when it comes to tariffs. The President said on

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Speaker 3: Friday when he met the press after the ruling, going forward,

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Speaker 3: we will be able to take in more money and

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Speaker 3: there will no longer be doubt. Is the first part

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Speaker 3: of that true. He will be able to take in

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Speaker 3: more money from filling the blank, whether it's consumer, importer

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Speaker 3: or foreign country, with the new tariff regime than the

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Speaker 3: old one.

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Speaker 9: I think it is hypothetically possible, although seems somewhat improbable

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Speaker 9: so as a legal matter, if they used all of

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Speaker 9: the authorities that they have, at least like in the

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Speaker 9: year period the short term, they might be able to

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Speaker 9: bring in one hundred and fifty billion. That is more

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Speaker 9: or less what I think the most clean estimates are

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Speaker 9: of the revenue they've brought into day since Liberation Day.

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Speaker 10: And I think you know, with the laws that they have,

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Speaker 10: they could do that.

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Speaker 9: They could approximate the same kind of tariff levels that

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Speaker 9: they were able to do under i EPA.

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Speaker 10: Whether or not that's what they're going to do is

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Speaker 10: a different question.

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Speaker 6: All right, Lourie, great stuff. We appreciate your expertise.

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Speaker 2: Lori Wallach, director of the Rethink Trade Program at the

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Speaker 2: American Economic Liberties Project, thank you so much.

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Speaker 4: Stay with us Balance of Power. We'll have much more

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Speaker 4: coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: We've put the band back together. Charlie's back from the

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Speaker 3: great unknown. He was up in Alaska. We thought we'd

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Speaker 3: lost him. We've got the panel back. Rick Davis is

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Speaker 3: with us this week. They'll be coming up a little

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Speaker 3: bit later, and Cliff Young's going to be with us

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Speaker 3: in a moment too.

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Speaker 4: Kaylee's here.

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Speaker 3: Everything's going to be fine. The news might not be fine,

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Speaker 3: but we are going to be fine. As we talk

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Speaker 3: about the news, and there's a lot of it ahead

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Speaker 3: of the State of the Union address tomorrow night, remembering

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Speaker 3: the President's attempts to address the issue of affordability in

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Speaker 3: a series of speeches. Right he went through Pennsylvania, went

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Speaker 3: to Detroit, he went to North Carolina. Of course, even

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Speaker 3: last week, went to Georgia to seize on the issue

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Speaker 3: that not only brought him here to the dance but

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Speaker 3: threatens the Republican majority on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 12: Listen, we inherited a mess with high prices and high inflation,

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Speaker 12: and we've turned it around and we've made it great.

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Speaker 12: They caused the affordability problem, and we've solved it.

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Speaker 8: What word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability?

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Speaker 8: Because I've won. I've won affordability. I've won affordability. So

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Speaker 8: as we fast forward to tomorrow night, what will he

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Speaker 8: say if he seizes on the classic line. You know,

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Speaker 8: he's going to talk for forty five minutes an hour,

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Speaker 8: maybe it's longer than that. Will all be we'll be

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Speaker 8: up there flipping through the page. I think he's halfway through.

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Speaker 8: We'll see how much time even spends on the script.

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Speaker 3: Maybe he wants to rift tomorrow night, we do the weave,

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Speaker 3: but at some point with this being an actual state

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Speaker 3: of the Union as opposed to the joint session we

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Speaker 3: saw last year the state of our Union and is affordable.

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Speaker 3: Cliff Young has been investigating this whole idea in his

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Speaker 3: research at IPSOS, and he is with US now in Washington, DC,

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Speaker 3: US Public Affairs Chair at IPSOS, Professor Texas A and

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Speaker 3: M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. It's

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Speaker 3: always great to see you, great to be here. Sixty

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Speaker 3: percent do not approve of the job he's doing. Is

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Speaker 3: he gears up for the speech? Does he need to

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Speaker 3: speak to them tomorrow night?

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Speaker 6: Well, he's on shaky ground right. If you flip that

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Speaker 6: and you look at approval ratings, we have him at

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Speaker 6: thirty nine percent. The overall market's about forty one overall.

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Speaker 6: It's come down about three or four points in the

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Speaker 6: last few months. There's a lot of stuff going on.

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Speaker 6: There's lots of friction in the system immigration, immigration, enforcement,

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Speaker 6: but affordability as well. But I think he has a

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Speaker 6: tricky task in this state of the Union. The most

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Speaker 6: important issue. Affordability is his weakest point. He polls in

444
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 6: the range of about thirty percent. When it comes to

445
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 6: forty billion costs of living. So it is a challenge

446
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 6: for him going into it.

447
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 4: Does it make it worse when he says that he

448
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 4: solved it, that he won.

449
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that's he's talking to his base. Perhaps

450
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 6: that's the big question. Will he talk to his base exclusively?

451
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 6: Will he talk to the population in general?

452
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 3: Didn't Joe Biden teach us that you can't tell people

453
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 3: how they feel very successfully?

454
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's committing the same sort of problems of the

455
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 6: last administration. Remember bidynamics, things are going well when we

456
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 6: would do focus groups and people would start screaming at

457
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 6: the TV screen when they would hear that. It's the

458
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 6: same sort of thing. You've got to be very careful,

459
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 6: not the great dissonance that creates dissonance. When you talk

460
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 6: to the average American today, they are having problems still

461
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 6: making ends meet. It's about cost levels, it's not about inflation.

462
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 6: It takes inflation, and inflationary effect is gnarly and it

463
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 6: takes a lot of time to work itself out, and

464
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 6: to date that has not been the case the United States.

465
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 3: It's really interesting now you talk about the base, and

466
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 3: you've used that word a couple of times. You're one

467
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: of the few researchers here who is actually polling non MAGA.

468
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,959
Speaker 3: When we talk about the base, we mean maga, right,

469
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 3: So if you broaden this to Republicans that include non

470
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 3: MAGA voters, how different are the numbers.

471
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, a few months ago we started dividing that out,

472
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 6: separating it out. When you look just at Republicans, it

473
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 6: looks like a monolith, usually a supermajority in favor of

474
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 6: whatever issue you're talking about. But when you peel away

475
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 6: that onion a bit and you separate MAGA from non MAGA,

476
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 6: you're finding fairly large differences. The magabase is still there.

477
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 6: They still support a Trump on many issues, including terriffs

478
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 6: for instance, which we just pulled on in the seventy

479
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 6: to eighty plus range. But when you look at non

480
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 6: MAGA Republicans, those Republicans that are really important on election day,

481
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 6: going to be really important for the midterms, they're below

482
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 6: fifty percent on most of the signature issues at hand

483
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:56,120
Speaker 6: with the Trump administration.

484
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 3: Really interesting and it makes you wonder, then, what kind

485
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: of a jail break we could by more traditional non

486
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 3: MAGA Republicans in Congress.

487
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 13: I know this may be.

488
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 3: A dwindling number of members, but there was a thought

489
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 3: on Friday that the Supreme Court may have saved Republicans

490
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: from losing the midterms. So the president simply bearing back down.

491
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: Could he find the line here based on those numbers

492
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: with non MAGA members of Congress, Yeah.

493
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 6: I think he would have to seriously change course, right.

494
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 6: I think a lot of the MAGA members tend to

495
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 6: be moderate, tend to believe in kind of consensus based solutions,

496
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 6: are not in favor of the tariffs. Only about forty

497
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 6: five or so percent of non MAGA Republicans are in

498
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 6: favor of the job that Trump is doing on tariffs.

499
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 6: They're more traditional Republicans ultimately. But you're very right, and

500
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 6: I often emphasize his points. Indeed, it looks like it

501
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 6: will be a blue year when it comes to the House,

502
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 6: maybe the Senate, but especially the House this year. But

503
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 6: more importantly, I believe is the profile Republicans. I think

504
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 6: we could see a more moderate class coming in, not

505
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 6: just at the national level, the federal level, but at

506
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 6: the state levels as well.

507
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 3: Interesting you talk about who has equipped best equipped to

508
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 3: handle major issues, Trump, Democrats neither.

509
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 4: It's like the same number all three. This is the

510
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 4: ultimate division here, isn't it.

511
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, we live in a divided country today. Fifty to

512
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 6: fifty I guess one third, one third, one third. It

513
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,239
Speaker 6: suggests the importance of the independent as a swing voter. Now,

514
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 6: they don't vote in the same numbers during the midterms,

515
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 6: but they are also important. Indeed, they really explain Trump's

516
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 6: decline in his numbers over the last year. He's really

517
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 6: lost the support of those independent minded libertarians and of

518
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 6: moderate conservatives.

519
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 4: So that number, that neither number you're looking at as

520
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 4: an independent voter block.

521
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's somewhere. There's somewhere. They haven't sort of put

522
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 6: their hat in one one ring or the other. They're

523
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 6: probably from political perspective, they're somewhere in the medical Well.

524
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 4: It's interesting.

525
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: It's not Republican Democrats in neither, it's Trump Democrats in neither,

526
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 3: which is how you smoke them out here.

527
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 6: Right exactly, because that that mega megabase will be with

528
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 6: Trump until the end. They are there no matter what.

529
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 6: It's really not just about the independence, but it's about

530
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 6: those moderate Republicans and who they vote for or more importantly,

531
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 6: whether they vote on election day.

532
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 3: Does the state of the Union matter for people outside

533
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 3: of the Beltway? When it comes to deciding what issue,

534
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: or what politician or what policy they like.

535
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 6: No, it's noising, it's very far away. However, the state

536
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 6: of the Union is very important because we're going to

537
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 6: be able to go into the mind, get into the

538
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 6: mind work, Yeah, to understand Trump and the administration where

539
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 6: they are, how they see things, whether they're lined or

540
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,479
Speaker 6: not with what people think. So I do think it's

541
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 6: an important benchmark, but only for us and not the

542
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 6: population in general.

543
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 4: Pall Sweeny said, really, he's not even watching this thing tomorrow.

544
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,959
Speaker 3: I don't know if he's watching the Sopranos or I mean,

545
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 3: we're going to have it here on Blue you know,

546
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 3: I'll be very curious to see what kind of guests

547
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 3: we're going to see once we get through the US

548
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 3: men's hockey that they got to be in the gallery, right?

549
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: Are we going to see victims of illegal aliens? A

550
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 3: sort of bleak view of the country tomorrow night? Is

551
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: this going to be a more hopeful view? We're going

552
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 3: to pack the stands with astronauts and hockey players. How

553
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 3: dark or light might this be?

554
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:25,719
Speaker 9: Well?

555
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 6: Historically speaking, presidents have tried to gain consensus through bringing

556
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 6: in sort of individuals that represents consensus in one way

557
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 6: or the other. Trump has never done that. Trump tends

558
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 6: to be more divisive of the way he approaches his rhetoric,

559
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 6: approaches his politics. I expect to have these credibility builder

560
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 6: building individuals there. I think they will tend on the

561
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 6: side of MAGA and being a little bit more divisive

562
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 6: them not, but we will see.

563
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 3: President Trump's producer James just dug this out his speech

564
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 3: last year that was March four. By the way, the

565
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:02,719
Speaker 3: Joint Session of Congress already six point six million viewers.

566
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: With the madness that we've seen worldwide since then, that

567
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 3: number is only going higher, right, it might not.

568
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 6: I think we'll beat it. We're going to beat that

569
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 6: for sure. So people are paying attention.

570
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 3: Then the question becomes what's the tenor and tone in

571
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 3: the room? Will there be the quorum and beholding the signs?

572
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 3: Yellen at the President.

573
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think there's a greater likelihood than in past

574
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 6: years for this to be a non traditional State of

575
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 6: the Union address.

576
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 4: We've already got like that. There are other competing states

577
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 4: of the Union.

578
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, yeah, But let's just take this one from

579
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 6: a state of argument. Trump, there's a likelihood that Trump

580
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 6: will not go consensus. He will go really partisan in base.

581
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,479
Speaker 6: He needs to energize that base. It's a problem. He's

582
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,719
Speaker 6: looking towards a midterm and I see the Democrats as

583
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 6: being non cooperative potentially, and we live in this partisan time.

584
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 6: I think they're energized. We'll see, obviously, but I think

585
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 6: there's a likelihood of having a much higher likelihood of

586
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 6: having a non traditional stay of the Union.

587
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 3: Why would anyone do the official response if there's such

588
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 3: a curse. If the speech doesn't Trump, the response isn't

589
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 3: going to help anyone else, is it.

590
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 4: If you're Abigail Spanberg, you just won. Can you get

591
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 4: any better than this?

592
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah?

593
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 6: Maybe you just want name recognition. You can't be known

594
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 6: by a broader audience. It's a difficult sort of follow

595
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 6: up right ultimately, but I do think that Democrats feel embolden.

596
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 6: They've won some off cycle elections, even at the state level,

597
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 6: that are suggestive of what will happen later this year.

598
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 6: I think they want to get their message out. They

599
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 6: want to be seen as the affordability party, a contrary

600
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 6: to the Republicans and Trump. They have won the last

601
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 6: few elections on that message. That's a good message for them.

602
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 6: I think they'll want to hammer that home.

603
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 3: I haven't mentioned the Epstein files since we started talking,

604
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 3: and you did run numbers on this the headline Epstein

605
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 3: Files undermine credibility of the political class. That cuts both ways.

606
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a posent all your houses. It's not good

607
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 6: for the pocal class in general. You know both you know,

608
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 6: Americans on the right and the left want to burn

609
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 6: it all down now, you know. So it really doesn't

610
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 6: hurt anyone specifically directly. That said, I do think it

611
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 6: takes away from the you know, from the it takes

612
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 6: away oxygen from Trump on the narratives he wants to

613
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 6: push forward. It diverts attention away from those issues that

614
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 6: are important to him. So it's probably a net negative

615
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 6: for Trump because of that. But from a public opinion standpoint,

616
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 6: they blame everyone.

617
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: State of our Union is affordable. What else could he

618
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 3: say He's going to do strong because we're safer something

619
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: like that.

620
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 9: Yeah.

621
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 6: I also think he's he might sort of double down

622
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 6: the fact that the system is broken.

623
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 4: The State of our Union is broken, and I'm the

624
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 4: right man to fix it.

625
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 6: And look at what we're doing, and I'm confronting the

626
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 6: elites and the corrupt and pushing it forward. It's difficult,

627
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 6: but I'm your man.

628
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 4: He didn't do it last year.

629
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: Based on my research here, it was not our state

630
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 3: of Theunion dot dot dot. He said, America is back.

631
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 3: We'll see if he doubles down on that cliff breat

632
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 3: to see you, great, to see you. We'll see if

633
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 3: you run numbers on the length of the speech, that's

634
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: going to be another one as well. Thirty six million

635
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: watched it last year and it was not short. We'll

636
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 3: find out tomorrow night special coverage here on Bloomberg. I'm

637
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew will assemble our political panel.

638
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 4: Next stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have

639
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 4: much more coming up after this.

640
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

641
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

642
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

643
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

644
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

645
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: As we ask many of the same questions today this

646
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 3: Monday that we were asking on Friday. When it comes

647
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 3: to tariffs, you listen to Bloomberg Radio for five minutes.

648
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 3: My god, how many times? One twenty two to three

649
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 3: h one nineteen seventy four. Just slow down. I suspect

650
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: the President will have more to say on this tomorrow.

651
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 3: He's saying on True Social today he does not need

652
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 3: Congress to help him with the tariffs, and therefore that's

653
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 3: why everyone thinks he's going to go to this. It's

654
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 3: for now, it's one twenty two. Is he going to

655
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 3: talk about this tomorrow? Shore of course he's going to

656
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 3: be looking right at the Supreme Court. What's he going

657
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 3: to do to the justices? Will he shake John Roberts's

658
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 3: hand when he walks by? That's what everyone's been talking about.

659
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: So it strikes me that it probably won't be an issue, right.

660
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 4: You know how this goes.

661
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 3: Donald Trump says lots of nasty things about people until

662
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 3: they're together, and then they seem to become friends. Even

663
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 3: Jay Pollett a pretty good time hanging out with them

664
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: with the hard hats on. We'll find out knowing as well,

665
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 3: he's going to be talking about Iran with this massive

666
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 3: build up of military hardware in the Middle East. Been

667
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 3: really looking forward to hearing from Rick and Genie together

668
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 3: on this, and this will be our chance for the

669
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: first time in a week, with talks now between the

670
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 3: US and Iranian officials set for Thursday.

671
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 4: If we get that far.

672
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 3: The president of New York Times is out with the

673
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 3: latest bloody Nose story here, right, you do the bloody

674
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 3: Nose strike and you threaten something much larger to bring

675
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 3: Iran to the table. Targets under consideration remain pretty much

676
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 3: the same as well, headquarters of Iron's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,

677
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 3: to the country's nuclear sites which we've already hit, to

678
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 3: the ballistic missile program. But it's really interesting what Scott

679
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: Besson said yesterday, suggesting that on Fox News this might

680
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 3: not wait until next weekend, claiming that Iron's regime is

681
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 3: quote probably a week away, he said, from having industrial

682
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 3: grade bomb making material unquote.

683
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:26,719
Speaker 4: Well, what's that about now?

684
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 3: And what will the President say about this tomorrow when

685
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 3: he addresses the American people? We assemble, our great political

686
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 3: panel are both back together. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis

687
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 3: and Genie Shanzeno. Rick is Republican strategist and partner at

688
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 3: Stone Court Capital. Genie is our democratic analyst and Democracy

689
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center, Rick. I

690
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 3: can't imagine that a president, that a commander in chief,

691
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: would want to be announcing kinetic action during a State

692
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 3: of the Union. But then again, this is Donald Trump.

693
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 3: Do you believe that we're on the precipice of more strikes?

694
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 14: Yeah, I think as soon as he amassed this armada

695
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 14: of power, you know, in the Persian Gulf and the

696
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 14: Red Sea in the Mediterranean, I mean like they have

697
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 14: done as best they could from the sea of basically

698
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 14: surrounding Iran. That you're not going to do that if

699
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 14: you really don't mean business. And I can understand that

700
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 14: there's a group within the administration who wants to see

701
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 14: a deal cut. Steve Wikoff said over the weekend that

702
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 14: they think there's still got a plan to do that,

703
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 14: and no doubt that's a better option for the president.

704
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 14: But he's shown a likelihood to use force as a

705
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 14: negotiating tactic. And I would not be surprised by anything,

706
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 14: including an attack the night of the State of the Union,

707
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 14: where he would bring that up. So he is a

708
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 14: he is a theatrical genius. There are a lot of

709
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 14: things you can say about Donald Trump, but he knows theater.

710
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 14: We're going to see theater on Tuesday night. Whether that

711
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 14: includes Iran or not, I don't know.

712
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 4: With his flair for drama.

713
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: Genie, would you be surprised if the President arrived in

714
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 3: the speaker's rostrum and set upon my direction. You can

715
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: imagine the rest of the statement. We have begun strikes

716
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 3: against Iran.

717
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 13: Nothing would surprise me at this point, Joe, you know,

718
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 13: I think the State of the Union for the President

719
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 13: is a really important moment as it pertains to Iran, for.

720
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 10: Him to explain what the heck is going on.

721
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 13: It was just months ago that he told us their

722
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 13: nuclear program was quote unquote obliterated. Now we hear we

723
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 13: are like sleepwalking ourselves into the biggest war that we

724
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 13: have seen or been a part of in the Middle

725
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 13: East in decades. Why what has changed? As far as

726
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 13: we know, nothing has changed with the proxies, nothing has

727
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 13: changed with their nuclear program, nothing has changed on the

728
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 13: ground with how they treat their citizenry, which is deplorable.

729
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 13: So why are we doing this? The President has a

730
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 13: moment in the State of the Union before he engages

731
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 13: in limited strikes to explain that doesn't mean he will,

732
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 13: but he certainly owes it to the American people and

733
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 13: to Congress.

734
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 10: To say what is the point?

735
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 13: And, by the way, what is the goal? What does

736
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 13: the United States get out of this? After Venezuela, we

737
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 13: were told, oh, that's okay, that it's a violation of

738
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 13: his promise not to get involved in wars overseas because

739
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 13: it's in our hemisphere. Well guess what Iran is not?

740
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 13: So why are we doing this? He has yet to

741
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 13: tell us that, And the State of the Union is

742
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 13: going to be his biggest audience to explain that. So gosh,

743
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 13: I hope he explains it before he engages in limited strikes.

744
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 3: Well, you know, there's going to be a lot of

745
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 3: members in the room thinking about war powers. Rick, And

746
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 3: it does look like the effort to check the president

747
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 3: through legislation seems to be petering out. They don't even

748
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 3: have all Democrats on board today. Pretty remarkable to see

749
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:06,439
Speaker 3: a representative Josh Gottheimer, Democrat from New Jersey, pull out

750
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 3: of this. He issued a statement saying, we respect and

751
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: defend Congress's constitutional role in matters of war. Oversight and

752
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 3: debate are absolutely vital. However, this resolution would restrict the

753
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 3: flexibility needed to respond to real and evolving threats and

754
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 3: risk signaling weakness at a dangerous moment. How many members

755
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 3: do you think in that room he speaks for rick

756
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 3: Democrats and Republicans, you know.

757
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 14: I think Representative Gothheimer actually speaks for the vast majority

758
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 14: of the House of Representatives. I mean, there's a significant

759
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 14: difference between the show of force between using tactical military

760
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 14: force and fighting a war. And we've gotten so used

761
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 14: to this idea that they're the same. Right. Oh, we're

762
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 14: going to go to Venezuela, We're going to attack Venezuela.

763
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,439
Speaker 14: We're going to be stuck in this long war. That's

764
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 14: not what actually happened. You know, we supported Israel and

765
00:37:55,920 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 14: his fights against the proxy groups that Iran supports. We

766
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 14: were going to get involved in a long war there.

767
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:06,760
Speaker 14: That's not exactly what happened. Syria. We had soldiers stationed

768
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 14: there for quite some time, but small number, and we

769
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 14: helped basically create a free Syria. That's not a long time.

770
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 14: More So, just because it's happened in the past doesn't

771
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 14: mean it's going to happen in the future. I think

772
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 14: that speaks to a lot of House members, both Republican

773
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,359
Speaker 14: and Democrat. Democrats have shown an interest over the last

774
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 14: decade of being much more muscular when it comes to

775
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 14: military affairs, and I think that's good for the country

776
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 14: and it creates less of a partisan divide between Democrats

777
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 14: and republic Is on key important national security matters. So,

778
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 14: you know, this is a good news item. We should

779
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 14: celebrate that because we don't have that many in Congress

780
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 14: these days.

781
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you we had something to celebrate as

782
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:47,800
Speaker 3: Americans yesterday.

783
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: Genie.

784
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 3: If the State of the Union is going to do

785
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:56,240
Speaker 3: it for you, US men's hockey will And I'm wondering

786
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 3: if we're going to see Jack Hughes and his teammates

787
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 3: in the gallery tomorrow night.

788
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 4: There were videos around there.

789
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 3: I'm told that they may or may not be real

790
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 3: of the President calling being you know, Cash Betel went

791
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,919
Speaker 3: to visit these guys after they won forty six years

792
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 3: to the day after the miracle on ice.

793
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 4: It's absolutely amazing. Will that be the moment in Jeanie,

794
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:17,240
Speaker 4: when both.

795
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 3: Sides of the room get up and acknowledge these incredible

796
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 3: Americans who won gold yesterday?

797
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 13: Oh, if they're there, absolutely, even if they're not, and

798
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 13: the President acknowledges them absolutely. I think we're going to

799
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 13: see more than one moment when the entire room can

800
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 13: get up and get together on things. But of course

801
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 13: you mentioned Cash, Buttel Joe, why do you do this

802
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 13: to me as the president? Oh you saw that getting

803
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 13: attacked in mar A Lago and a twenty one year

804
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 13: old culprit apparently is shot and killed. Cash Mattel is

805
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 13: celebrating after he said through his spokespeople that.

806
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 10: He was not going there do anything but business. There

807
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 10: he was drinking his beer. He, by the way, criticize

808
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 10: the former FBI director for doing the same. So you know,

809
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 10: I think there's a lot there that Cappitel needs to

810
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 10: live down.

811
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 13: We'll see if he accompanies the hockey team into the

812
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 13: room tomorrow night.

813
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 3: We're looking at the video right now, Jeanie, this is something. Man,

814
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 3: if you want to party, you need to hang out

815
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 3: with Cash Betel. I guess he's drinking the beer. He's

816
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 3: throwing the beer all over the players, wearing goggles. He's

817
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: slamming on the table, fist pumping, table slamming display and

818
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 3: you know everybody's having a blast. The question is is

819
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 3: that appropriate for the FBI director Rick knowing everything that

820
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 3: Genie just said, mar A Lago is a deadly breaking

821
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 3: at mar A Lago over the weekend. Here, he said

822
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 3: he was not in Italy to hang out at the Olympics,

823
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 3: but he looks like he's having a blast.

824
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 8: Yeah.

825
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 14: No, look, I mean, first of all, let's all celebrate

826
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 14: the America's male and female hockey teams, right, gory winners.

827
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 9: But and.

828
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,959
Speaker 14: And look, I can't begrudge red blooded America and going

829
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 14: crazy and celebrating for gold metal victory at the Olympics.

830
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 14: I mean, there are a lot of things I'll throw

831
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 14: him under the bus to do, but this is not

832
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 14: one of them.

833
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 4: This is the one.

834
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 14: I'm happy there showing the flag and supporting our team.

835
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 14: I disagree with his flavor and beer, both wearing it

836
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 14: and drinking it. But yeah, I mean, if I were

837
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 14: the FBI director, I'm not sure there'd be much difference

838
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 14: between Cash Betel and Rick Davis.

839
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 3: Well, even if maybe you pay your own way. Yeah,

840
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 3: Bickelo Ultra just flying around the room here. They must

841
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 3: have been watching Landman. Democrats don't like it. Jeanie did

842
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 3: the gift and corruption is unreal, said Jason Crowe, sean

843
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 3: caston Illinois, your taxpayer dollars funding the FBI director's Italian vacation.

844
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 3: Three million pages of evidence of a massive child sex

845
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 3: trafficking ring. And this is what the FBI director is

846
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 3: doing right now. Genie, When do the hearings begin?

847
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 13: I think the Democrats may have to wait to see

848
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 13: if they can take the House to have hearings on

849
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 13: this kind of thing. But you know, it is the hypocrisy,

850
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,800
Speaker 13: it's the public dime. It is so much going on

851
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 13: that he is responsible for. And it is his critique

852
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 13: of the former director not to mention flying around on

853
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 13: this jet on the public dime. So there's the lot

854
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,240
Speaker 13: there to criticize. You think he might have a little

855
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 13: bit more common sense than to do this publicly, and

856
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 13: yet he did it, and he did it full out there.

857
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 13: And I'm curious to see what the President has to

858
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 13: say about that, because none of this makes him look good.

859
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 3: Well, he's very happy to see esp Canada there and boy,

860
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what, maybe we'll see them all maybe?

861
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 4: Or will all the men and women be up there? James?

862
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: What do we think tomorrow? There aren't that many seats,

863
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 3: you know, up in the gallery. But we've got a

864
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 3: lot to celebrate here. Two gold medals. Pretty cool and

865
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 3: pretty amazing. Way to watch that whole thing come to

866
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 3: an end. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

867
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify,

868
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,359
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

869
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

870
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.