WEBVTT - An Elon Musk Report Card 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.244 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.284 --> 0:00:29.044 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:28.724 --> 0:00:31.204 And I'm Nate Silver. Today in the show, we're going 0:00:31.244 --> 0:00:35.604 to be talking about a certain man whose name rhymes 0:00:35.644 --> 0:00:38.924 with Dilon Tusk. You can probably guess what he is. 0:00:38.964 --> 0:00:40.684 He recently left the Failure. We're going to give a 0:00:40.724 --> 0:00:44.204 grade for Elon Musk's tenure in office. Did he help himself? 0:00:44.524 --> 0:00:47.404 Did he even help Trump? We'll discuss it all and 0:00:47.404 --> 0:00:49.644 what kind of decisions Elon made. 0:00:49.564 --> 0:00:51.844 And then we're going to actually zoom out a little 0:00:51.844 --> 0:00:55.204 bit and address one of our listeners questions about how 0:00:55.244 --> 0:00:57.684 we can change our current system of government to allow 0:00:57.724 --> 0:01:11.684 it to make better decisions. So let's talk about Elon 0:01:11.964 --> 0:01:16.924 Musk and his brief tenure at the top as President 0:01:16.964 --> 0:01:20.164 of the United States as co President of the United States. 0:01:20.484 --> 0:01:24.284 Yeah, I mean, so, first of all, one thing we 0:01:24.364 --> 0:01:28.644 might ask is who comes out looking better in this exchange, right, 0:01:28.764 --> 0:01:31.924 like Trump or Elon? Trump got what was at three 0:01:32.004 --> 0:01:35.324 hundred million dollars contributed to his campaign in various ways. 0:01:35.404 --> 0:01:39.684 Trump got to brand himself as a more interesting, kind 0:01:39.684 --> 0:01:42.364 of forward looking candidate, gets Elon to be one of 0:01:42.364 --> 0:01:46.124 the ringleaders of this faction of Silicon Valley and business 0:01:46.204 --> 0:01:50.164 leaders that gravitate toward Trump. I think from day one 0:01:50.324 --> 0:01:55.084 in the White House that Elon was not helpful to Trump. Right. 0:01:55.724 --> 0:01:59.444 Although Trump is not popular, his numbers aren't that bad, right, 0:01:59.564 --> 0:02:01.804 especially they were covered a little bit since I mean, 0:02:02.444 --> 0:02:04.484 on any given day you never know what is the 0:02:04.484 --> 0:02:07.724 truth about what terroifts will be in place. But they've 0:02:07.724 --> 0:02:11.204 recovered since that reparations day what was it called? Not 0:02:11.324 --> 0:02:15.484 Independence Day? Either liberation Liberation day? There we go. Yeah, 0:02:15.804 --> 0:02:17.084 reparations Day would not. 0:02:17.004 --> 0:02:19.404 Be a Trump No, no, I think I think if 0:02:19.404 --> 0:02:21.524 we had a reparations Day, it would have been canceled 0:02:21.604 --> 0:02:22.204 under a Trump. 0:02:22.404 --> 0:02:24.884 But his number, says, have recovered, Elons have not. Let 0:02:24.884 --> 0:02:27.484 me look up the how popular is Elon Musk on 0:02:27.524 --> 0:02:32.724 the Silver Bulletin So forty percent favorable rating, fifty four 0:02:32.764 --> 0:02:36.244 percent unfavorable rating. At the start of Trump's term, he 0:02:36.364 --> 0:02:39.764 was a forty two and a forty seven, right, so 0:02:40.684 --> 0:02:42.764 his unfavorables really went up. People who were on the 0:02:42.804 --> 0:02:46.644 fence about Elon Musk now substantially disapprove of him. And 0:02:46.684 --> 0:02:49.404 by the way, this affects his bottom line too, right, 0:02:49.484 --> 0:02:53.364 It's affected Tesla sales in Europe absolutely, quite profoundly, where 0:02:53.364 --> 0:02:57.684 Elon is not forty fifty five but twenty seventy twenty 0:02:57.724 --> 0:03:00.484 eighty unfavorable in these surveys. And then you know, look, 0:03:00.724 --> 0:03:04.684 he does interfere in certain ways with Trump's policy in 0:03:04.764 --> 0:03:08.484 two or three areas, right, one of which is skilled 0:03:08.564 --> 0:03:12.884 immigration and one of which is tariffs. So I think 0:03:12.884 --> 0:03:18.484 Trump exits a little worse for trying this post election day, 0:03:18.284 --> 0:03:21.684 but Elon probably helped him in the campaign and during 0:03:21.724 --> 0:03:24.004 the campaign Eland was more neutral in terms of public 0:03:24.044 --> 0:03:26.524 image and so forth, and like, if you're neutral, but 0:03:26.564 --> 0:03:29.284 you raise three hundred million dollars and allow you can't 0:03:29.324 --> 0:03:31.884 it to rebrand himself and not such a bad deal. 0:03:32.044 --> 0:03:34.764 So I think it's an interesting calculus, right, because Elon 0:03:34.884 --> 0:03:37.964 was definitely helpful in getting Trump elected, but then at 0:03:38.004 --> 0:03:41.964 some point he started being a liability because I think 0:03:42.124 --> 0:03:45.884 with Doje, even people who supported Elon, there were certain 0:03:45.924 --> 0:03:48.604 things where he was starting to get blowback, including from 0:03:48.604 --> 0:03:50.564 Trump who was like, oh, well, we don't really want 0:03:50.604 --> 0:03:52.844 to be cutting all of these things, right, we need 0:03:52.884 --> 0:03:56.764 to win elections and people cutting things isn't popular. I 0:03:56.764 --> 0:03:59.724 think he said something along those lines, so I think 0:03:59.724 --> 0:04:02.324 that that was hurting Trump. And then we have actually 0:04:02.844 --> 0:04:09.684 the evidence of the campaign where Elon donated twenty million dollars, right, 0:04:09.924 --> 0:04:13.644 and it ended up with a huge Democratic victory because 0:04:13.644 --> 0:04:17.484 there was a backlash there was, yeah, exactly, there was 0:04:17.524 --> 0:04:20.564 a huge backlash the fact that he was perceived as 0:04:20.644 --> 0:04:24.564 kind of meddling a little bit too much. And you 0:04:24.644 --> 0:04:28.044 also have these conflicting things right where a lot of 0:04:28.044 --> 0:04:31.084 the tariffs that Trump wants to pass hurt Tesla, right, 0:04:31.164 --> 0:04:34.604 and Tesla currently is losing a lot of the there's 0:04:34.924 --> 0:04:37.524 ev credits that are no longer a part of the 0:04:37.604 --> 0:04:40.244 big beautiful bill. So there are a lot of things 0:04:40.244 --> 0:04:44.524 happening that are hurting Tesla directly. And people at SpaceX 0:04:44.684 --> 0:04:47.924 have been complaining that, you know, they feel neglected, that 0:04:48.004 --> 0:04:51.404 productivity is down, that innovation is down, that people are 0:04:51.444 --> 0:04:54.284 not motivated, that the you know, the work environment has 0:04:54.284 --> 0:04:58.444 been horrible because Elon has completely neglected his duties there, 0:04:58.724 --> 0:05:03.444 and so I think he's definitely suffering on those grounds. 0:05:03.724 --> 0:05:08.084 I'm very, very curious to see whether Trump is going 0:05:08.204 --> 0:05:13.324 to persist with the Doge cuts and like double down, 0:05:13.444 --> 0:05:16.444 or if he's going to now like slowly try to 0:05:16.524 --> 0:05:21.164 walk it back as part of separating himself from elon. 0:05:21.284 --> 0:05:23.164 What do you think, Nate, Well, look, if you look 0:05:23.204 --> 0:05:25.524 at bond markets, they're worried that we're going to run 0:05:26.084 --> 0:05:30.844 budget deficits because we'll probably cut taxes on rich people 0:05:30.924 --> 0:05:36.564 like Republicans like to do without cutting spending by enough, right, 0:05:36.724 --> 0:05:39.084 And where we have cut spending are in things like 0:05:39.124 --> 0:05:44.444 foreign aid programs that probably from like a expected DIYU standpoint, 0:05:44.484 --> 0:05:47.604 do a lot of good for the world. Yeah, but 0:05:47.684 --> 0:05:49.604 aren't that large a fraction of the federal budgets. It's 0:05:49.604 --> 0:05:52.924 almost like the you know, it's like the canonical issue 0:05:52.924 --> 0:05:54.604 where if you pull people and say what percentage of 0:05:54.604 --> 0:05:56.804 budget goes to four and aid, they'll say fifteen percent 0:05:56.844 --> 0:05:59.684 instead of one percent or whatever it is, right, And 0:05:59.724 --> 0:06:00.964 so you know, it's where we kind of get a 0:06:01.004 --> 0:06:03.284 lot of bang for your bucket, and that's where where 0:06:03.324 --> 0:06:06.124 there have been more cuts. But like, yeah, look, I 0:06:06.364 --> 0:06:11.764 mean Trump was never a fiscal austerity guy, right, and 0:06:11.804 --> 0:06:16.724 he differed from like the Romney Ryan generation of Republicans 0:06:16.764 --> 0:06:21.324 by doing less to target entitlement programs. Right. I mean, 0:06:21.524 --> 0:06:24.284 in principle he has an isolation a streak, But I 0:06:24.284 --> 0:06:27.684 don't believe we're cutting defense spending or anything like that, 0:06:27.804 --> 0:06:31.324 and you know, with with legitimate reason. I mean, you know, 0:06:31.484 --> 0:06:33.284 things as we you know, you look at t happening 0:06:33.284 --> 0:06:36.364 in Ukraine, right and like how is our drone capabilities 0:06:36.404 --> 0:06:39.844 compared to China? And it could become a very dangerous world. 0:06:39.924 --> 0:06:44.604 But no, yeah, I mean what is Elon's legacy on 0:06:44.644 --> 0:06:46.204 the government. I mean I think it's like you know, 0:06:47.004 --> 0:06:50.324 cutting PEP far and things like that, and not a 0:06:50.324 --> 0:06:54.444 lot of other you know, and maybe maybe restraining Trump 0:06:54.884 --> 0:06:57.244 a little bit on tariffs at the end. 0:06:59.244 --> 0:07:02.724 Yeah, that remains to be seen, right, But yeah, I'm 0:07:02.764 --> 0:07:04.884 looking at some numbers right now, and this is just 0:07:05.244 --> 0:07:09.764 one calculation that said that, you know, his at best, 0:07:09.924 --> 0:07:14.164 it seems like Doach has saved around one hundred and 0:07:14.204 --> 0:07:17.844 fifty billion dollars, but that's probably unlikely to stand, and 0:07:18.084 --> 0:07:23.324 that it the consequences of the cuts, putting the federal 0:07:23.364 --> 0:07:27.644 workers on paid leave, rehiring mistakenly fired employees, and all 0:07:27.684 --> 0:07:30.484 of that is going to cost the government as much 0:07:30.484 --> 0:07:33.924 as one hundred and thirty five billion dollars. So nut 0:07:34.044 --> 0:07:38.044 it seems like very little has been accomplished except for 0:07:38.484 --> 0:07:41.844 things that you know, Elon is very big on innovation, 0:07:42.084 --> 0:07:46.164 right and American you know, American brain power, and he 0:07:46.404 --> 0:07:48.724 you know, he's been tweeting about SpaceX and all of 0:07:48.764 --> 0:07:51.204 this stuff. And one of the big things of his 0:07:51.284 --> 0:07:54.044 legacy is cutting all of the grounds too, as we've 0:07:54.044 --> 0:07:57.004 talked about on the show multiple times, kind of creating 0:07:57.004 --> 0:07:59.484 this brain drain and this vacuum. You know, where the 0:07:59.484 --> 0:08:02.444 fuck is innovation going to come from if I also 0:08:02.804 --> 0:08:05.804 just leave the United States? And so I think that 0:08:05.964 --> 0:08:10.204 he perversely, it's not I think the associate with Trump. 0:08:10.244 --> 0:08:12.724 I think he has cost himself a hell of a 0:08:12.724 --> 0:08:15.884 lot of money in that sense, because the pipeline is 0:08:15.924 --> 0:08:17.724 going to dry up and this is going to be 0:08:17.804 --> 0:08:20.724 much harder to undo than rehiring federal employees. 0:08:21.244 --> 0:08:23.364 Yeah. Look, I think he was coming from a paradigm where, 0:08:24.964 --> 0:08:29.604 you know, in the private sector, there's kind of a 0:08:29.644 --> 0:08:34.764 paradigm where like you accumulate fat in a corporation, Right, 0:08:34.924 --> 0:08:39.964 it becomes hard to fire people on a one on 0:08:39.964 --> 0:08:42.524 one basis for various reasons, right, I mean, a it's 0:08:42.564 --> 0:08:46.524 just kind of a challenging thing to let someone off 0:08:46.724 --> 0:08:49.084 of a job, right, And there can be union stuff, 0:08:49.124 --> 0:08:53.524 and there can be legal stuff and wrongful termination stuff 0:08:53.524 --> 0:08:55.364 and all of that. Right, So you know, so so 0:08:55.444 --> 0:08:58.524 much in a corporation be like, Okay, we've been growing, maybe 0:08:58.524 --> 0:09:00.844 we're struggling little bit. Now, let's just take a scalpel 0:09:00.844 --> 0:09:05.244 and shave ten percent or whatever of our budget off. Right. 0:09:05.284 --> 0:09:08.044 It's like much harder to do in a US government sense, 0:09:08.084 --> 0:09:11.564 where like, like, look, I'm sure there is lots of waste, fraud, 0:09:11.724 --> 0:09:14.164 and abuse in the government. If you read the book 0:09:14.204 --> 0:09:16.724 Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, it talks about 0:09:16.924 --> 0:09:19.364 some of that. There's some state governments too, and seems 0:09:19.364 --> 0:09:22.204 to be worse in blue states than in red states. Right, 0:09:22.244 --> 0:09:24.364 But like, you have a whole bureaucracy and a whole 0:09:24.444 --> 0:09:27.644 legal framework and for both apporporating funds to begin with, 0:09:27.964 --> 0:09:30.724 like and for cutting them, right, So you know, Congress 0:09:30.724 --> 0:09:33.284 is supposed to control the power of the purse. Trump 0:09:33.284 --> 0:09:36.244 has not performed very well in litigation so far in 0:09:36.284 --> 0:09:38.964 a number of areas, and so you know, so that 0:09:39.084 --> 0:09:43.004 paradigm doesn't carry forward, and I think is like, look, 0:09:43.084 --> 0:09:45.924 I mean the basic critique that I find most compelling 0:09:45.964 --> 0:09:48.204 of Elan is not oh, he's a Nazi. It's that 0:09:48.364 --> 0:09:51.404 he's weighing over his head and doesn't seem to have 0:09:51.444 --> 0:09:54.964 this ability to differentiate issues that he knows a lot 0:09:55.004 --> 0:09:57.804 about from ones where he doesn't. Like if Trump had 0:09:57.844 --> 0:10:00.364 appointed him instead of like David Sachs to be like 0:10:01.124 --> 0:10:03.804 the part time ais are. I mean, Elon actually is 0:10:05.964 --> 0:10:08.564 more cautious on AI, more concerned about AI risks than 0:10:08.604 --> 0:10:11.404 some other Silicon Valley leaders, Right, So like Elon, we 0:10:11.444 --> 0:10:15.164 want you to like and do what you can to 0:10:15.364 --> 0:10:18.924 ensure AI leadership in an intelligent way and leadership against 0:10:19.004 --> 0:10:23.364 China and technological leadership. And and now you know, look, 0:10:23.364 --> 0:10:26.084 I think the chance that China wins quote unquote what 0:10:26.124 --> 0:10:30.124 do you want to call it? Porld War two has risen. 0:10:29.884 --> 0:10:33.204 Gone up by a lot. I think that you just absolutely, 0:10:33.364 --> 0:10:36.884 like spot On, nailed the issue here in Nate, which 0:10:36.964 --> 0:10:41.164 is the overconfidence that Elon Musks has exhibited, right, the 0:10:41.604 --> 0:10:45.164 fact that he doesn't seem to grasp like he is 0:10:45.324 --> 0:10:49.604 so he is so enamored of his own intelligence that 0:10:49.644 --> 0:10:52.244 he doesn't seem to grasp that his deep knowledge of 0:10:52.324 --> 0:10:56.204 one sphere doesn't mean that he has qualified to be 0:10:56.244 --> 0:10:58.804 an expert and have deep knowledge of everything else. And 0:10:58.844 --> 0:11:00.204 he's like, well, I can do the same thing to 0:11:00.244 --> 0:11:01.924 the government that I did to Twitter, and look at 0:11:01.924 --> 0:11:05.284 Twitter now, haha, fuck you haters. However, Twitter is not 0:11:05.324 --> 0:11:08.924 the government, right, and you can also like argue that, 0:11:09.404 --> 0:11:11.644 you know, Twitter is worse off now. We're not gonna 0:11:12.004 --> 0:11:15.044 I'm not making that argument, but you could. However, even 0:11:15.084 --> 0:11:17.804 if you say, okay, Twitter's better off. Now, everything's great. 0:11:18.244 --> 0:11:20.804 You know, he understands business in a way that he 0:11:20.844 --> 0:11:22.204 does not understand government. 0:11:22.284 --> 0:11:22.444 Right. 0:11:22.724 --> 0:11:25.124 He doesn't know what he's doing, he doesn't know what 0:11:25.164 --> 0:11:29.364 he's cutting. He lacks that basic knowledge, and yet the 0:11:29.444 --> 0:11:32.844 confidence doesn't match up right with his knowledge. He's not 0:11:33.244 --> 0:11:36.244 the humility is altogether absent in the way he thinks 0:11:36.284 --> 0:11:39.524 about this. And this is one of the biggest problems 0:11:39.524 --> 0:11:41.804 with people who are very intelligent. It's actually in my 0:11:41.844 --> 0:11:44.444 dissertation for when I was in grad school. This is 0:11:44.484 --> 0:11:46.604 what this is what we discovered, right that this is 0:11:46.644 --> 0:11:50.764 the Achilles heel of high performers, this overconfidence bias where 0:11:51.244 --> 0:11:53.684 they succumb to thinking that they know much more and 0:11:53.724 --> 0:11:55.564 are much more in control than they actually are. 0:11:56.604 --> 0:11:59.964 And especially in his case, if first of all, Silicon 0:12:00.044 --> 0:12:03.644 Valley is kind of a no nagging culture, right, It's 0:12:03.724 --> 0:12:05.684 very self dealing in the sense I don't mean any 0:12:05.684 --> 0:12:07.164 correct way. I mean, like in a kind of little 0:12:07.164 --> 0:12:11.124 way of like everyone's getting in everyone else's different rounds 0:12:11.164 --> 0:12:14.404 of investment. It's a very tight knit community, so you can't, 0:12:14.484 --> 0:12:20.284 like it's considered uncou to like criticize another VC or founder. Right, 0:12:20.324 --> 0:12:23.084 you don't see a lot of that necessarily, That's one 0:12:23.084 --> 0:12:25.364 part of it. But also, look, he is on a 0:12:25.404 --> 0:12:28.764 pretty amazing winning streak. I mean, you know, if you 0:12:28.884 --> 0:12:31.364 ask most investors at the time the SpaceX gonna work, 0:12:31.364 --> 0:12:34.924 assess is gonna work, they'd say no, right, probably not. 0:12:35.164 --> 0:12:37.884 You know, I do think that like he deserves some 0:12:38.044 --> 0:12:42.564 credit for like, you know, some of the dire predictions 0:12:42.604 --> 0:12:47.284 about Twitter were grossly exaggerated. Now it's business model isn't 0:12:47.324 --> 0:12:49.324 much good, but like it's remained an important part of 0:12:49.364 --> 0:12:53.284 the discourse. You know, I think that like xai is 0:12:53.444 --> 0:12:58.564 taken somewhat seriously. It's not a category leader like open 0:12:58.604 --> 0:13:03.164 Ai or Nthropic or maybe Google. You know, it might 0:13:03.164 --> 0:13:06.524 be down in that third tier, but like still has 0:13:06.564 --> 0:13:09.724 a lot of interesting data to crunch from Twitter, data 0:13:09.724 --> 0:13:13.404 that is valuable. They're hiring good people, and like it's 0:13:13.444 --> 0:13:15.844 not impossible that that could be a big player, right, 0:13:15.924 --> 0:13:17.964 So like you have to give him credit for what 0:13:17.964 --> 0:13:22.044 he's done in business. And look, are are different types 0:13:22.044 --> 0:13:23.724 of intelligence too. I mean the phrase I've used with 0:13:23.764 --> 0:13:29.964 Elon is spiky intelligence, which is just like very excellent 0:13:30.124 --> 0:13:33.764 in some areas and very deficient in other areas where 0:13:33.764 --> 0:13:37.644 he's like below the average showing some areas like emotional 0:13:37.684 --> 0:13:42.404 IQ probably right, and and that's but he's not like 0:13:42.444 --> 0:13:45.204 a calculating I mean, in my book you talking about 0:13:45.204 --> 0:13:47.884 the river, right, which are at least very competitive anarchical people. 0:13:48.124 --> 0:13:52.084 He's not like the calculating type. He's impulsive. He goes 0:13:52.124 --> 0:13:55.044 all in on things. And yeah, you know, ocou say, it's 0:13:55.044 --> 0:13:57.444 like a pooker player that has a sun run and 0:13:57.484 --> 0:14:00.764 wins like three big tournaments in a year. There's like 0:14:00.804 --> 0:14:03.244 a little bit of that, But then they're playing some 0:14:03.364 --> 0:14:05.924 other game that isn't poker and they bet on themselves 0:14:05.964 --> 0:14:09.004 really heavily, and yeah. 0:14:08.244 --> 0:14:10.604 Or even in poker. But the next year when their 0:14:10.644 --> 0:14:13.644 sun run is over. I'm thinking of someone in particular 0:14:13.724 --> 0:14:17.004 who's on the sun run a lifetime right now, who's 0:14:17.044 --> 0:14:18.684 going to be coming down to Earth at some. 0:14:18.604 --> 0:14:25.764 Point, and we'll be right back after this break. 0:14:34.044 --> 0:14:37.244 I think that spiky intelligence is a really important way 0:14:37.324 --> 0:14:40.724 to look at it because they're people who are generalists, right, 0:14:41.004 --> 0:14:43.644 if you think about it, you know, if you think 0:14:43.644 --> 0:14:47.884 of the fox hedgehog type of thinking. Have we talked 0:14:47.884 --> 0:14:48.564 about this on the. 0:14:48.484 --> 0:14:51.444 Show We should's It should be a risky business core concept, 0:14:51.484 --> 0:14:53.644 but yeah, let's talk. Let's remind people what it is. 0:14:53.964 --> 0:14:57.164 Yeah, So you have two types of people, the people 0:14:57.204 --> 0:14:59.764 who know who have the broad intelligence, right, who know 0:14:59.844 --> 0:15:01.364 a little about a lot of things, and then the 0:15:01.404 --> 0:15:04.164 people who know a lot about one thing in particular. 0:15:04.604 --> 0:15:08.724 And so those are kind of the two concepts. And 0:15:08.924 --> 0:15:11.884 some perform better in some environments, some perform better in 0:15:11.964 --> 0:15:13.844 other environments. Nat, I think you wrote about this in 0:15:13.884 --> 0:15:18.204 your book, right, And so these are kind of these 0:15:18.204 --> 0:15:23.164 two paradigms for high performers. And both types of people, 0:15:23.204 --> 0:15:25.724 by the way, can be very high performing people. So 0:15:25.884 --> 0:15:28.844 this isn't a dang on any one approach, right, but 0:15:28.964 --> 0:15:32.244 it just depends on what the context is and what 0:15:32.284 --> 0:15:33.764 you're trying to accomplish. 0:15:33.924 --> 0:15:36.844 Yeah, hedgehog knows one big thing, a fox knows many 0:15:36.964 --> 0:15:40.844 little things, right, And they're both types of intelligence for 0:15:41.004 --> 0:15:47.164 things like poker, or for things like making prediction, right, 0:15:47.284 --> 0:15:53.644 than this fox tendency to kind of calibrate and estimate 0:15:53.924 --> 0:15:57.924 and be pluralistic tends to be helpful, I think, right, 0:15:58.204 --> 0:16:00.804 if you are a founder of a company, then you 0:16:00.884 --> 0:16:02.684 might watch someone who goes all in and is very 0:16:02.684 --> 0:16:04.644 spiky hy variants right. 0:16:04.764 --> 0:16:07.484 You want, you want that hedgehog. But a fox is 0:16:07.524 --> 0:16:10.924 actually less likely to be over confident than a hedgehog 0:16:11.364 --> 0:16:14.564 because the hedgehog is much more likely to fall for 0:16:14.644 --> 0:16:18.884 that bias, because the hedgehog knows so much about that thing. 0:16:18.924 --> 0:16:21.684 And if it's a successful hedgehog, the hedgehog has been 0:16:21.764 --> 0:16:24.604 very good, right, and has been rewarded for knowing a lot, 0:16:25.164 --> 0:16:29.924 And so that then creates this false sense that oh, 0:16:29.964 --> 0:16:33.444 I'm just brilliant, right, I'm like naturally good at knowing things, 0:16:33.724 --> 0:16:36.964 whereas the fox, because the fox kind of knows about 0:16:37.004 --> 0:16:40.524 so many different things and might not be Like if 0:16:40.524 --> 0:16:43.004 the fox squared off against the hedgehog and the hedgehog's 0:16:43.004 --> 0:16:46.844 area of expertise, the fox would lose. But the fox 0:16:47.164 --> 0:16:50.764 kind of knows enough about the world that I think 0:16:50.804 --> 0:16:53.564 the fox is more likely to be humble. It's a 0:16:53.564 --> 0:16:55.964 little you know, it's a little strange to think of 0:16:56.004 --> 0:16:58.164 a humble fox. But that's why the hot fox is 0:16:58.204 --> 0:17:01.444 able to evade traps. Right. If the fox became over confident, 0:17:01.484 --> 0:17:04.164 would be very easy to catch the fox, because you'd 0:17:04.164 --> 0:17:06.524 be like, haha, I know that the fox thinks that 0:17:06.644 --> 0:17:10.164 it's it's you know, the best in the world, and 0:17:10.204 --> 0:17:11.764 so I'm going to be able to catch it. Yeah. 0:17:11.804 --> 0:17:18.684 And Elon also lacks a certain type of worldlyness, right. 0:17:20.764 --> 0:17:22.564 You know, look, say what you want about like Mark 0:17:22.684 --> 0:17:27.764 and Breeson, Repeter Teel, but they can write interesting essays 0:17:28.244 --> 0:17:32.044 about kind of world affairs and political philosophy and things 0:17:32.084 --> 0:17:34.844 like that. Right, you get some founders. You know, Metallic 0:17:34.884 --> 0:17:38.764 Bouterin is the founder of Ethereum, and when I talked 0:17:38.764 --> 0:17:40.044 to him from my book, He's like, yeah, I thought 0:17:40.044 --> 0:17:41.764 there was a ninety percent chance that I'd fail, but 0:17:41.804 --> 0:17:44.964 I thought that the expected value was positive at the 0:17:44.964 --> 0:17:47.804 stage of my life. Right, that's a very risky business 0:17:47.844 --> 0:17:51.044 slash Fox way to think about things, whereas Elon would 0:17:51.084 --> 0:17:53.364 just be like, I'm going to fucking do it. I'm 0:17:53.364 --> 0:17:54.644 going to fucking do it. I don't even want to 0:17:54.644 --> 0:17:56.604 think about the odds. I'm going to fucking do it. Right, 0:17:57.084 --> 0:18:01.364 so he's particularly you know, he lacks that roundedness I think, 0:18:01.484 --> 0:18:06.604 and and the self reflectiveness. And also he is has 0:18:06.644 --> 0:18:08.724 a lot of distractions. I mean, look in terms of 0:18:08.764 --> 0:18:10.644 the number of things things he gets done. I mean 0:18:10.644 --> 0:18:15.964 he's sort of in a half assed way, but maybe 0:18:15.964 --> 0:18:18.844 not completely. You know, he is running like a half 0:18:18.884 --> 0:18:21.484 dozen companies and being a special advisor to the president, 0:18:21.524 --> 0:18:25.844 and like fathering all these children and traveling around the world. 0:18:25.884 --> 0:18:28.724 I love how you just threw that in there, and 0:18:28.764 --> 0:18:31.684 fathering all these children and in lawsuits about all of 0:18:31.684 --> 0:18:34.204 the children he's fathering. So that's actually it's a very 0:18:35.364 --> 0:18:38.244 it's an important point because that does kind of get 0:18:38.284 --> 0:18:39.204 his attention. 0:18:39.724 --> 0:18:43.324 And you know, look, we all know okay, let me 0:18:43.364 --> 0:18:51.244 put this carefully. We all know how achieving defective people. 0:18:51.364 --> 0:18:55.404 I don't mean defective entirely pejoratively, right, but like people 0:18:55.484 --> 0:18:59.964 who have flaws that they're able to overcome because they 0:19:00.044 --> 0:19:05.044 have crafted a life to work around them, and or 0:19:05.124 --> 0:19:07.924 because they have strength that outweigh them, and or because 0:19:07.924 --> 0:19:10.404 they have enough like how our privilege authority and not 0:19:10.484 --> 0:19:12.484 get called on the problems. 0:19:12.564 --> 0:19:12.764 Right. 0:19:14.244 --> 0:19:16.244 You know, my experience with those people is that when 0:19:16.364 --> 0:19:20.724 you add other elements that careful balance can get out 0:19:21.084 --> 0:19:23.444 of whack, right, And with Elon, you're adding too. You're 0:19:23.484 --> 0:19:25.564 not sending the government stuff. You're adding. According to a 0:19:25.564 --> 0:19:29.684 lot of credible reporting, maybe quite a bit of drug use, 0:19:29.724 --> 0:19:33.564 and not just weed, but ketamin in particular seems to 0:19:33.644 --> 0:19:36.084 have been a thing that he was doing, right, And 0:19:36.124 --> 0:19:38.164 when you have these reports there's one recently in the 0:19:38.164 --> 0:19:40.684 New York Times, there was one in the Wall Street Journal. 0:19:40.684 --> 0:19:42.924 I mean, so the reporting on that I'd gather is 0:19:43.164 --> 0:19:47.564 very deep, and like you know, Elon's life has taken 0:19:47.764 --> 0:19:50.564 I think, kind of a turn for the worse in 0:19:50.604 --> 0:19:51.164 this period. 0:19:51.244 --> 0:19:51.364 Right. 0:19:51.404 --> 0:19:53.284 He was at one point one of the most admired 0:19:53.404 --> 0:19:57.844 men or women for that matter, on Earth. Tesla had 0:19:57.844 --> 0:19:59.084 a very good brand. I mean, there are a ton 0:19:59.124 --> 0:20:01.244 of Teslas on the road, right, but like you know, 0:20:01.364 --> 0:20:03.204 part of the preme is like this kind he kind 0:20:03.244 --> 0:20:10.364 of spends neglecting. Tesla is a time when Chinese electric 0:20:10.444 --> 0:20:13.844 vehicles begin to gain a lot of market share, right 0:20:14.124 --> 0:20:19.204 where other American companies like Rivian begin to become more prestige, 0:20:19.284 --> 0:20:23.204 especially in the in the blue areas where ELI used 0:20:23.204 --> 0:20:25.444 to be more propular. By the way using oftentimes like 0:20:25.484 --> 0:20:30.204 the charging network that like Tesla built. Right, Yeah, you know, 0:20:30.204 --> 0:20:32.444 you see a few cyber trucks on the road. I 0:20:32.484 --> 0:20:36.164 think that is largely not seen as a tremendous success 0:20:35.764 --> 0:20:41.764 in in driverless cars. Waimo is a category leader in 0:20:41.804 --> 0:20:43.684 the United States. Right, so all of a sudden, Tesla 0:20:43.804 --> 0:20:48.484 is like second best at a bunch of things. Its 0:20:48.524 --> 0:20:52.844 profit margins are down. Its stock did bounce back after 0:20:52.884 --> 0:20:59.124 Elon downsized himself from the government or was or was downsized. 0:20:59.284 --> 0:21:02.244 But Elon might have concerns that you're playing catch up 0:21:02.764 --> 0:21:04.924 in various ways in this market now, and you kind 0:21:04.924 --> 0:21:06.724 of established the whole category by yourself. 0:21:07.604 --> 0:21:10.724 Yeah, no, I think that he's he is playing catch up. 0:21:10.764 --> 0:21:13.364 And by the way, Nate, I've started noticing, I don't 0:21:13.404 --> 0:21:16.124 know if you have bumper stickers on a lot of 0:21:16.124 --> 0:21:21.044 Tesla's that apologize for driving a Tesla. So people are 0:21:21.204 --> 0:21:23.484 you know, people are saying things like I wish I didn't, 0:21:23.564 --> 0:21:25.724 you know, but I can't afford a new car. And 0:21:25.884 --> 0:21:28.324 I bet that the secondary, like the resale market for 0:21:28.404 --> 0:21:31.724 Tesla's is going to fall, which has traditionally been actually 0:21:32.004 --> 0:21:35.724 incredibly strong right in the past. If you try to 0:21:35.764 --> 0:21:39.684 buy an old Tesla like the prices were ridiculously high, 0:21:39.884 --> 0:21:42.404 and I wouldn't be at all surprised if that secondary 0:21:42.684 --> 0:21:46.404 market also kind of absolutely caved in, And so you 0:21:46.484 --> 0:21:48.964 need to think not just right now, but ahead. And 0:21:49.004 --> 0:21:51.804 then you've got the lack of eb subsidies and kind 0:21:51.804 --> 0:21:54.244 of all of those credits that are going away, and 0:21:54.324 --> 0:21:56.804 so all of these things are sobering if you're an 0:21:56.804 --> 0:21:59.604 Elon musk and Tesla's kind of your your baby. 0:21:59.724 --> 0:22:03.404 Yeah, Like, people are pretty rational about car purchases, right, 0:22:03.444 --> 0:22:06.884 They're often pretty go gageous for overall optimism about economy 0:22:07.324 --> 0:22:11.164 in the near term. Right, according to Google Gemini AI. 0:22:11.804 --> 0:22:14.604 You know, always caveats about this, but there's been a 0:22:14.684 --> 0:22:18.844 ten percent decline in resale values approximately so far instead 0:22:18.884 --> 0:22:21.764 of time when in theory, because of tariffs, you should 0:22:21.764 --> 0:22:26.244 have people moving into used cars, right, if new cars 0:22:26.244 --> 0:22:30.164 get more expensive. Yeah, And it's like no longer like 0:22:31.484 --> 0:22:33.044 a flash. She used to be cool thing ne a 0:22:33.084 --> 0:22:34.844 difriend who would ride a Tesla. It was like a 0:22:34.844 --> 0:22:37.124 little bit like a friend who had a crypto punk 0:22:37.244 --> 0:22:39.324 right flex right, Hey, you want to you want to? 0:22:39.844 --> 0:22:42.044 You want to ride my Tesla to the poker tournament. 0:22:42.084 --> 0:22:45.084 It's like, Okay, Sure, yeah, and and they've lost that 0:22:45.084 --> 0:22:45.884