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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today in the show, we're going

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Speaker 2: to be talking about a certain man whose name rhymes

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Speaker 2: with Dilon Tusk. You can probably guess what he is.

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Speaker 2: He recently left the Failure. We're going to give a

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Speaker 2: grade for Elon Musk's tenure in office. Did he help himself?

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Speaker 2: Did he even help Trump? We'll discuss it all and

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Speaker 2: what kind of decisions Elon made.

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Speaker 1: And then we're going to actually zoom out a little

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Speaker 1: bit and address one of our listeners questions about how

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Speaker 1: we can change our current system of government to allow

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Speaker 1: it to make better decisions. So let's talk about Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk and his brief tenure at the top as President

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Speaker 1: of the United States as co President of the United States.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so, first of all, one thing we

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Speaker 2: might ask is who comes out looking better in this exchange, right,

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Speaker 2: like Trump or Elon? Trump got what was at three

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars contributed to his campaign in various ways.

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Speaker 2: Trump got to brand himself as a more interesting, kind

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Speaker 2: of forward looking candidate, gets Elon to be one of

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Speaker 2: the ringleaders of this faction of Silicon Valley and business

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Speaker 2: leaders that gravitate toward Trump. I think from day one

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Speaker 2: in the White House that Elon was not helpful to Trump. Right.

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Speaker 2: Although Trump is not popular, his numbers aren't that bad, right,

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Speaker 2: especially they were covered a little bit since I mean,

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Speaker 2: on any given day you never know what is the

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Speaker 2: truth about what terroifts will be in place. But they've

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Speaker 2: recovered since that reparations day what was it called? Not

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Speaker 2: Independence Day? Either liberation Liberation day? There we go. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: reparations Day would not.

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Speaker 1: Be a Trump No, no, I think I think if

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Speaker 1: we had a reparations Day, it would have been canceled

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Speaker 1: under a Trump.

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Speaker 2: But his number, says, have recovered, Elons have not. Let

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Speaker 2: me look up the how popular is Elon Musk on

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Speaker 2: the Silver Bulletin So forty percent favorable rating, fifty four

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Speaker 2: percent unfavorable rating. At the start of Trump's term, he

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Speaker 2: was a forty two and a forty seven, right, so

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Speaker 2: his unfavorables really went up. People who were on the

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Speaker 2: fence about Elon Musk now substantially disapprove of him. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, this affects his bottom line too, right,

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Speaker 2: It's affected Tesla sales in Europe absolutely, quite profoundly, where

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Speaker 2: Elon is not forty fifty five but twenty seventy twenty

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Speaker 2: eighty unfavorable in these surveys. And then you know, look,

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Speaker 2: he does interfere in certain ways with Trump's policy in

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Speaker 2: two or three areas, right, one of which is skilled

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Speaker 2: immigration and one of which is tariffs. So I think

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Speaker 2: Trump exits a little worse for trying this post election day,

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Speaker 2: but Elon probably helped him in the campaign and during

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Speaker 2: the campaign Eland was more neutral in terms of public

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Speaker 2: image and so forth, and like, if you're neutral, but

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Speaker 2: you raise three hundred million dollars and allow you can't

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Speaker 2: it to rebrand himself and not such a bad deal.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's an interesting calculus, right, because Elon

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Speaker 1: was definitely helpful in getting Trump elected, but then at

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Speaker 1: some point he started being a liability because I think

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Speaker 1: with Doje, even people who supported Elon, there were certain

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Speaker 1: things where he was starting to get blowback, including from

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Speaker 1: Trump who was like, oh, well, we don't really want

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Speaker 1: to be cutting all of these things, right, we need

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Speaker 1: to win elections and people cutting things isn't popular. I

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Speaker 1: think he said something along those lines, so I think

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Speaker 1: that that was hurting Trump. And then we have actually

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Speaker 1: the evidence of the campaign where Elon donated twenty million dollars, right,

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Speaker 1: and it ended up with a huge Democratic victory because

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Speaker 1: there was a backlash there was, yeah, exactly, there was

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Speaker 1: a huge backlash the fact that he was perceived as

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Speaker 1: kind of meddling a little bit too much. And you

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Speaker 1: also have these conflicting things right where a lot of

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Speaker 1: the tariffs that Trump wants to pass hurt Tesla, right,

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Speaker 1: and Tesla currently is losing a lot of the there's

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Speaker 1: ev credits that are no longer a part of the

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Speaker 1: big beautiful bill. So there are a lot of things

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Speaker 1: happening that are hurting Tesla directly. And people at SpaceX

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Speaker 1: have been complaining that, you know, they feel neglected, that

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Speaker 1: productivity is down, that innovation is down, that people are

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Speaker 1: not motivated, that the you know, the work environment has

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Speaker 1: been horrible because Elon has completely neglected his duties there,

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Speaker 1: and so I think he's definitely suffering on those grounds.

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Speaker 1: I'm very, very curious to see whether Trump is going

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Speaker 1: to persist with the Doge cuts and like double down,

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Speaker 1: or if he's going to now like slowly try to

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Speaker 1: walk it back as part of separating himself from elon.

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Speaker 2: What do you think, Nate, Well, look, if you look

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Speaker 2: at bond markets, they're worried that we're going to run

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Speaker 2: budget deficits because we'll probably cut taxes on rich people

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Speaker 2: like Republicans like to do without cutting spending by enough, right,

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Speaker 2: And where we have cut spending are in things like

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Speaker 2: foreign aid programs that probably from like a expected DIYU standpoint,

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Speaker 2: do a lot of good for the world. Yeah, but

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Speaker 2: aren't that large a fraction of the federal budgets. It's

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Speaker 2: almost like the you know, it's like the canonical issue

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Speaker 2: where if you pull people and say what percentage of

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Speaker 2: budget goes to four and aid, they'll say fifteen percent

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Speaker 2: instead of one percent or whatever it is, right, And

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Speaker 2: so you know, it's where we kind of get a

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Speaker 2: lot of bang for your bucket, and that's where where

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Speaker 2: there have been more cuts. But like, yeah, look, I

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Speaker 2: mean Trump was never a fiscal austerity guy, right, and

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Speaker 2: he differed from like the Romney Ryan generation of Republicans

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Speaker 2: by doing less to target entitlement programs. Right. I mean,

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Speaker 2: in principle he has an isolation a streak, But I

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Speaker 2: don't believe we're cutting defense spending or anything like that,

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Speaker 2: and you know, with with legitimate reason. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: things as we you know, you look at t happening

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine, right and like how is our drone capabilities

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Speaker 2: compared to China? And it could become a very dangerous world.

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Speaker 2: But no, yeah, I mean what is Elon's legacy on

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Speaker 2: the government. I mean I think it's like you know,

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Speaker 2: cutting PEP far and things like that, and not a

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Speaker 2: lot of other you know, and maybe maybe restraining Trump

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Speaker 2: a little bit on tariffs at the end.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that remains to be seen, right, But yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at some numbers right now, and this is just

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Speaker 1: one calculation that said that, you know, his at best,

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Speaker 1: it seems like Doach has saved around one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty billion dollars, but that's probably unlikely to stand, and

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Speaker 1: that it the consequences of the cuts, putting the federal

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Speaker 1: workers on paid leave, rehiring mistakenly fired employees, and all

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Speaker 1: of that is going to cost the government as much

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Speaker 1: as one hundred and thirty five billion dollars. So nut

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Speaker 1: it seems like very little has been accomplished except for

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Speaker 1: things that you know, Elon is very big on innovation,

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Speaker 1: right and American you know, American brain power, and he

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Speaker 1: you know, he's been tweeting about SpaceX and all of

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Speaker 1: this stuff. And one of the big things of his

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Speaker 1: legacy is cutting all of the grounds too, as we've

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Speaker 1: talked about on the show multiple times, kind of creating

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Speaker 1: this brain drain and this vacuum. You know, where the

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Speaker 1: fuck is innovation going to come from if I also

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Speaker 1: just leave the United States? And so I think that

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Speaker 1: he perversely, it's not I think the associate with Trump.

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Speaker 1: I think he has cost himself a hell of a

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Speaker 1: lot of money in that sense, because the pipeline is

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Speaker 1: going to dry up and this is going to be

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Speaker 1: much harder to undo than rehiring federal employees.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I think he was coming from a paradigm where,

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Speaker 2: you know, in the private sector, there's kind of a

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Speaker 2: paradigm where like you accumulate fat in a corporation, Right,

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Speaker 2: it becomes hard to fire people on a one on

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Speaker 2: one basis for various reasons, right, I mean, a it's

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Speaker 2: just kind of a challenging thing to let someone off

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Speaker 2: of a job, right, And there can be union stuff,

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Speaker 2: and there can be legal stuff and wrongful termination stuff

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Speaker 2: and all of that. Right, So you know, so so

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Speaker 2: much in a corporation be like, Okay, we've been growing, maybe

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Speaker 2: we're struggling little bit. Now, let's just take a scalpel

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Speaker 2: and shave ten percent or whatever of our budget off. Right.

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Speaker 2: It's like much harder to do in a US government sense,

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Speaker 2: where like, like, look, I'm sure there is lots of waste, fraud,

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Speaker 2: and abuse in the government. If you read the book

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Speaker 2: Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, it talks about

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Speaker 2: some of that. There's some state governments too, and seems

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Speaker 2: to be worse in blue states than in red states. Right,

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Speaker 2: But like, you have a whole bureaucracy and a whole

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Speaker 2: legal framework and for both apporporating funds to begin with,

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Speaker 2: like and for cutting them, right, So you know, Congress

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Speaker 2: is supposed to control the power of the purse. Trump

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Speaker 2: has not performed very well in litigation so far in

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Speaker 2: a number of areas, and so you know, so that

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Speaker 2: paradigm doesn't carry forward, and I think is like, look,

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Speaker 2: I mean the basic critique that I find most compelling

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Speaker 2: of Elan is not oh, he's a Nazi. It's that

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Speaker 2: he's weighing over his head and doesn't seem to have

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Speaker 2: this ability to differentiate issues that he knows a lot

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Speaker 2: about from ones where he doesn't. Like if Trump had

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Speaker 2: appointed him instead of like David Sachs to be like

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Speaker 2: the part time ais are. I mean, Elon actually is

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Speaker 2: more cautious on AI, more concerned about AI risks than

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Speaker 2: some other Silicon Valley leaders, Right, So like Elon, we

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Speaker 2: want you to like and do what you can to

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Speaker 2: ensure AI leadership in an intelligent way and leadership against

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Speaker 2: China and technological leadership. And and now you know, look,

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Speaker 2: I think the chance that China wins quote unquote what

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Speaker 2: do you want to call it? Porld War two has risen.

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Speaker 1: Gone up by a lot. I think that you just absolutely,

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Speaker 1: like spot On, nailed the issue here in Nate, which

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Speaker 1: is the overconfidence that Elon Musks has exhibited, right, the

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Speaker 1: fact that he doesn't seem to grasp like he is

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Speaker 1: so he is so enamored of his own intelligence that

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Speaker 1: he doesn't seem to grasp that his deep knowledge of

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Speaker 1: one sphere doesn't mean that he has qualified to be

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Speaker 1: an expert and have deep knowledge of everything else. And

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Speaker 1: he's like, well, I can do the same thing to

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Speaker 1: the government that I did to Twitter, and look at

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Speaker 1: Twitter now, haha, fuck you haters. However, Twitter is not

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Speaker 1: the government, right, and you can also like argue that,

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Speaker 1: you know, Twitter is worse off now. We're not gonna

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Speaker 1: I'm not making that argument, but you could. However, even

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Speaker 1: if you say, okay, Twitter's better off. Now, everything's great.

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Speaker 1: You know, he understands business in a way that he

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Speaker 1: does not understand government.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't know what he's doing, he doesn't know what

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Speaker 1: he's cutting. He lacks that basic knowledge, and yet the

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Speaker 1: confidence doesn't match up right with his knowledge. He's not

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Speaker 1: the humility is altogether absent in the way he thinks

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Speaker 1: about this. And this is one of the biggest problems

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Speaker 1: with people who are very intelligent. It's actually in my

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Speaker 1: dissertation for when I was in grad school. This is

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Speaker 1: what this is what we discovered, right that this is

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Speaker 1: the Achilles heel of high performers, this overconfidence bias where

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Speaker 1: they succumb to thinking that they know much more and

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Speaker 1: are much more in control than they actually are.

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Speaker 2: And especially in his case, if first of all, Silicon

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Speaker 2: Valley is kind of a no nagging culture, right, It's

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Speaker 2: very self dealing in the sense I don't mean any

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Speaker 2: correct way. I mean, like in a kind of little

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Speaker 2: way of like everyone's getting in everyone else's different rounds

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Speaker 2: of investment. It's a very tight knit community, so you can't,

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Speaker 2: like it's considered uncou to like criticize another VC or founder. Right,

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Speaker 2: you don't see a lot of that necessarily, That's one

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Speaker 2: part of it. But also, look, he is on a

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Speaker 2: pretty amazing winning streak. I mean, you know, if you

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Speaker 2: ask most investors at the time the SpaceX gonna work,

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Speaker 2: assess is gonna work, they'd say no, right, probably not.

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Speaker 2: You know, I do think that like he deserves some

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Speaker 2: credit for like, you know, some of the dire predictions

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Speaker 2: about Twitter were grossly exaggerated. Now it's business model isn't

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Speaker 2: much good, but like it's remained an important part of

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Speaker 2: the discourse. You know, I think that like xai is

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Speaker 2: taken somewhat seriously. It's not a category leader like open

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Speaker 2: Ai or Nthropic or maybe Google. You know, it might

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Speaker 2: be down in that third tier, but like still has

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Speaker 2: a lot of interesting data to crunch from Twitter, data

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Speaker 2: that is valuable. They're hiring good people, and like it's

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Speaker 2: not impossible that that could be a big player, right,

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Speaker 2: So like you have to give him credit for what

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Speaker 2: he's done in business. And look, are are different types

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Speaker 2: of intelligence too. I mean the phrase I've used with

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Speaker 2: Elon is spiky intelligence, which is just like very excellent

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Speaker 2: in some areas and very deficient in other areas where

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Speaker 2: he's like below the average showing some areas like emotional

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Speaker 2: IQ probably right, and and that's but he's not like

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Speaker 2: a calculating I mean, in my book you talking about

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Speaker 2: the river, right, which are at least very competitive anarchical people.

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Speaker 2: He's not like the calculating type. He's impulsive. He goes

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Speaker 2: all in on things. And yeah, you know, ocou say, it's

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Speaker 2: like a pooker player that has a sun run and

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Speaker 2: wins like three big tournaments in a year. There's like

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Speaker 2: a little bit of that, But then they're playing some

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Speaker 2: other game that isn't poker and they bet on themselves

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Speaker 2: really heavily, and yeah.

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Speaker 1: Or even in poker. But the next year when their

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Speaker 1: sun run is over. I'm thinking of someone in particular

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Speaker 1: who's on the sun run a lifetime right now, who's

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Speaker 1: going to be coming down to Earth at some.

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Speaker 2: Point, and we'll be right back after this break.

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Speaker 1: I think that spiky intelligence is a really important way

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Speaker 1: to look at it because they're people who are generalists, right,

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Speaker 1: if you think about it, you know, if you think

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Speaker 1: of the fox hedgehog type of thinking. Have we talked

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Speaker 1: about this on the.

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Speaker 2: Show We should's It should be a risky business core concept,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, let's talk. Let's remind people what it is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So you have two types of people, the people

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Speaker 1: who know who have the broad intelligence, right, who know

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Speaker 1: a little about a lot of things, and then the

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Speaker 1: people who know a lot about one thing in particular.

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Speaker 1: And so those are kind of the two concepts. And

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Speaker 1: some perform better in some environments, some perform better in

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Speaker 1: other environments. Nat, I think you wrote about this in

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Speaker 1: your book, right, And so these are kind of these

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Speaker 1: two paradigms for high performers. And both types of people,

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Speaker 1: by the way, can be very high performing people. So

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Speaker 1: this isn't a dang on any one approach, right, but

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Speaker 1: it just depends on what the context is and what

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Speaker 1: you're trying to accomplish.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, hedgehog knows one big thing, a fox knows many

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Speaker 2: little things, right, And they're both types of intelligence for

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Speaker 2: things like poker, or for things like making prediction, right,

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Speaker 2: than this fox tendency to kind of calibrate and estimate

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Speaker 2: and be pluralistic tends to be helpful, I think, right,

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Speaker 2: if you are a founder of a company, then you

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Speaker 2: might watch someone who goes all in and is very

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Speaker 2: spiky hy variants right.

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Speaker 1: You want, you want that hedgehog. But a fox is

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Speaker 1: actually less likely to be over confident than a hedgehog

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Speaker 1: because the hedgehog is much more likely to fall for

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Speaker 1: that bias, because the hedgehog knows so much about that thing.

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Speaker 1: And if it's a successful hedgehog, the hedgehog has been

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Speaker 1: very good, right, and has been rewarded for knowing a lot,

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Speaker 1: And so that then creates this false sense that oh,

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Speaker 1: I'm just brilliant, right, I'm like naturally good at knowing things,

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Speaker 1: whereas the fox, because the fox kind of knows about

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Speaker 1: so many different things and might not be Like if

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Speaker 1: the fox squared off against the hedgehog and the hedgehog's

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Speaker 1: area of expertise, the fox would lose. But the fox

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Speaker 1: kind of knows enough about the world that I think

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Speaker 1: the fox is more likely to be humble. It's a

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Speaker 1: little you know, it's a little strange to think of

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Speaker 1: a humble fox. But that's why the hot fox is

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Speaker 1: able to evade traps. Right. If the fox became over confident,

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Speaker 1: would be very easy to catch the fox, because you'd

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Speaker 1: be like, haha, I know that the fox thinks that

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Speaker 1: it's it's you know, the best in the world, and

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Speaker 1: so I'm going to be able to catch it. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And Elon also lacks a certain type of worldlyness, right.

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Speaker 2: You know, look, say what you want about like Mark

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Speaker 2: and Breeson, Repeter Teel, but they can write interesting essays

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Speaker 2: about kind of world affairs and political philosophy and things

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Speaker 2: like that. Right, you get some founders. You know, Metallic

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Speaker 2: Bouterin is the founder of Ethereum, and when I talked

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Speaker 2: to him from my book, He's like, yeah, I thought

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Speaker 2: there was a ninety percent chance that I'd fail, but

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Speaker 2: I thought that the expected value was positive at the

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Speaker 2: stage of my life. Right, that's a very risky business

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Speaker 2: slash Fox way to think about things, whereas Elon would

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Speaker 2: just be like, I'm going to fucking do it. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to fucking do it. I don't even want to

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Speaker 2: think about the odds. I'm going to fucking do it. Right,

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Speaker 2: so he's particularly you know, he lacks that roundedness I think,

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Speaker 2: and and the self reflectiveness. And also he is has

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Speaker 2: a lot of distractions. I mean, look in terms of

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Speaker 2: the number of things things he gets done. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's sort of in a half assed way, but maybe

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Speaker 2: not completely. You know, he is running like a half

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Speaker 2: dozen companies and being a special advisor to the president,

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Speaker 2: and like fathering all these children and traveling around the world.

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Speaker 1: I love how you just threw that in there, and

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Speaker 1: fathering all these children and in lawsuits about all of

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Speaker 1: the children he's fathering. So that's actually it's a very

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Speaker 1: it's an important point because that does kind of get

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Speaker 1: his attention.

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Speaker 2: And you know, look, we all know okay, let me

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Speaker 2: put this carefully. We all know how achieving defective people.

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Speaker 2: I don't mean defective entirely pejoratively, right, but like people

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Speaker 2: who have flaws that they're able to overcome because they

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Speaker 2: have crafted a life to work around them, and or

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Speaker 2: because they have strength that outweigh them, and or because

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Speaker 2: they have enough like how our privilege authority and not

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Speaker 2: get called on the problems.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: You know, my experience with those people is that when

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Speaker 2: you add other elements that careful balance can get out

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Speaker 2: of whack, right, And with Elon, you're adding too. You're

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Speaker 2: not sending the government stuff. You're adding. According to a

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Speaker 2: lot of credible reporting, maybe quite a bit of drug use,

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Speaker 2: and not just weed, but ketamin in particular seems to

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Speaker 2: have been a thing that he was doing, right, And

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Speaker 2: when you have these reports there's one recently in the

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Speaker 2: New York Times, there was one in the Wall Street Journal.

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Speaker 2: I mean, so the reporting on that I'd gather is

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Speaker 2: very deep, and like you know, Elon's life has taken

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Speaker 2: I think, kind of a turn for the worse in

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Speaker 2: this period.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: He was at one point one of the most admired

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Speaker 2: men or women for that matter, on Earth. Tesla had

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Speaker 2: a very good brand. I mean, there are a ton

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Speaker 2: of Teslas on the road, right, but like you know,

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Speaker 2: part of the preme is like this kind he kind

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Speaker 2: of spends neglecting. Tesla is a time when Chinese electric

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Speaker 2: vehicles begin to gain a lot of market share, right

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Speaker 2: where other American companies like Rivian begin to become more prestige,

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Speaker 2: especially in the in the blue areas where ELI used

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Speaker 2: to be more propular. By the way using oftentimes like

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Speaker 2: the charging network that like Tesla built. Right, Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: you see a few cyber trucks on the road. I

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Speaker 2: think that is largely not seen as a tremendous success

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Speaker 2: in in driverless cars. Waimo is a category leader in

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Speaker 2: the United States. Right, so all of a sudden, Tesla

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Speaker 2: is like second best at a bunch of things. Its

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Speaker 2: profit margins are down. Its stock did bounce back after

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Speaker 2: Elon downsized himself from the government or was or was downsized.

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Speaker 2: But Elon might have concerns that you're playing catch up

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Speaker 2: in various ways in this market now, and you kind

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Speaker 2: of established the whole category by yourself.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think that he's he is playing catch up.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, Nate, I've started noticing, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you have bumper stickers on a lot of

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Speaker 1: Tesla's that apologize for driving a Tesla. So people are

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Speaker 1: you know, people are saying things like I wish I didn't,

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Speaker 1: you know, but I can't afford a new car. And

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Speaker 1: I bet that the secondary, like the resale market for

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Speaker 1: Tesla's is going to fall, which has traditionally been actually

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Speaker 1: incredibly strong right in the past. If you try to

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Speaker 1: buy an old Tesla like the prices were ridiculously high,

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Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be at all surprised if that secondary

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Speaker 1: market also kind of absolutely caved in, And so you

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Speaker 1: need to think not just right now, but ahead. And

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Speaker 1: then you've got the lack of eb subsidies and kind

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Speaker 1: of all of those credits that are going away, and

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Speaker 1: so all of these things are sobering if you're an

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Speaker 1: Elon musk and Tesla's kind of your your baby.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, people are pretty rational about car purchases, right,

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Speaker 2: They're often pretty go gageous for overall optimism about economy

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Speaker 2: in the near term. Right, according to Google Gemini AI.

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Speaker 2: You know, always caveats about this, but there's been a

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Speaker 2: ten percent decline in resale values approximately so far instead

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Speaker 2: of time when in theory, because of tariffs, you should

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Speaker 2: have people moving into used cars, right, if new cars

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Speaker 2: get more expensive. Yeah, And it's like no longer like

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Speaker 2: a flash. She used to be cool thing ne a

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Speaker 2: difriend who would ride a Tesla. It was like a

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Speaker 2: little bit like a friend who had a crypto punk

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Speaker 2: right flex right, Hey, you want to you want to?

399
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Speaker 2: You want to ride my Tesla to the poker tournament.

400
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Speaker 2: It's like, Okay, Sure, yeah, and and they've lost that

401
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Speaker 2: category leadership.

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Speaker 1: I think, yeah, yeah, I think I think that's absolutely right.

403
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Speaker 1: I do wonder whether something else will step in. I'm

404
00:22:52,244 --> 00:22:54,244
Speaker 1: very curious to see what the next five to ten

405
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Speaker 1: years in the US will look like in terms of EVS,

406
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Speaker 1: whether someone else is going to step in, whether TESLA

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Speaker 1: is going to rebound as Trump, you know, leaves office

408
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Speaker 1: and Elanas further distance from it, or whether we're going

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Speaker 1: to see just a fall a continue must fall in

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Speaker 1: the share of evs, in which case I think it

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Speaker 1: would be a lasting harm for for a lot of

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Speaker 1: goals that Elon even has stated that he has in

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Speaker 1: the past.

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Speaker 2: Now, look, I don't think we will. I think that

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Speaker 2: will that will rebound, right. You know, look now every

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Speaker 2: manufacturing and if you look at like what are Car

417
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Speaker 2: and Driver's best electric cars testas Model three is still

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Speaker 2: number one. You have Hundays, and you have Nissans, and

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Speaker 2: you have you know, BMW's and American made versions and

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Speaker 2: things like that, And like, I think the market demand

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Speaker 2: for these cars is proven. And obviously Trump's probably gonna

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Speaker 2: roll back fuel efficiency standards in some places. But like,

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Speaker 2: and by the way, I don't think I don't think

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Speaker 2: Elon's position as a public figure is unrecoverable. I think

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Speaker 2: it might have become unrecoverable if he'd remained in office.

426
00:24:02,724 --> 00:24:04,004
Speaker 2: I guess, I guess he was in office. He was

427
00:24:04,044 --> 00:24:09,204
Speaker 2: officially he was office for much longer. But people have

428
00:24:09,284 --> 00:24:12,244
Speaker 2: like people have like short memory.

429
00:24:11,924 --> 00:24:14,244
Speaker 1: People have Oh my god, yes, can we just like

430
00:24:14,284 --> 00:24:17,124
Speaker 1: talk about that for a second. People's memory is non existent,

431
00:24:17,564 --> 00:24:20,964
Speaker 1: like people especially these days, Like I feel like the

432
00:24:20,964 --> 00:24:26,204
Speaker 1: attention span is so incredibly short that like next week,

433
00:24:26,684 --> 00:24:29,684
Speaker 1: if something else happens, you know, you will kind of

434
00:24:29,724 --> 00:24:33,844
Speaker 1: go back to your priors and this will be kind

435
00:24:33,844 --> 00:24:36,524
Speaker 1: of water under the bridge. Even though this kind of

436
00:24:36,564 --> 00:24:40,524
Speaker 1: the circumstances might not have changed that drastically, the repercussions

437
00:24:40,564 --> 00:24:44,084
Speaker 1: might still be felt. I'm always shocked at just how

438
00:24:44,124 --> 00:24:46,004
Speaker 1: short people's memories actually are.

439
00:24:46,124 --> 00:24:47,684
Speaker 2: Look I mean if he I mean part of premise,

440
00:24:47,724 --> 00:24:49,804
Speaker 2: Like Elan I think does not believe in surrounding himself

441
00:24:49,804 --> 00:24:51,724
Speaker 2: with like he has some PR people have tried to

442
00:24:51,724 --> 00:24:54,804
Speaker 2: work with them before, but like not not many relative

443
00:24:54,804 --> 00:24:56,364
Speaker 2: to a person of his stature. But like a good

444
00:24:57,204 --> 00:25:00,564
Speaker 2: PR campaign, you know, you do the right interviews, you

445
00:25:00,604 --> 00:25:03,124
Speaker 2: make sure you're not on Kenneman or something. When you're

446
00:25:03,124 --> 00:25:06,564
Speaker 2: doing the interviews and like and like, and you can say,

447
00:25:06,644 --> 00:25:10,724
Speaker 2: I try to stop Trump from mushrooms are okay? I

448
00:25:11,004 --> 00:25:13,444
Speaker 2: don't know, man, I tried not to. I tried to

449
00:25:13,444 --> 00:25:16,364
Speaker 2: stop Trump from these horrible terrorists and X, Y and Z.

450
00:25:16,844 --> 00:25:18,924
Speaker 2: I mean he has expressed so when we put up

451
00:25:19,204 --> 00:25:22,364
Speaker 2: at silver bulletin the Elon Musk popularity tracker, he actually

452
00:25:23,604 --> 00:25:27,364
Speaker 2: replied to me on Twitter and said, it's because the

453
00:25:27,404 --> 00:25:30,964
Speaker 2: governments or the news media is biased against me. I'm paraphrasing,

454
00:25:31,364 --> 00:25:34,084
Speaker 2: but also, hahaha, I have kind of fucked up some shit, right.

455
00:25:34,204 --> 00:25:37,884
Speaker 2: It was like surprisingly humble. I think it did register

456
00:25:38,124 --> 00:25:40,604
Speaker 2: her to him at some point that like, you've burned

457
00:25:40,604 --> 00:25:44,564
Speaker 2: a lot of credibility, buddy, with with a large mass

458
00:25:44,604 --> 00:25:47,324
Speaker 2: of the American public that once hold you in high regard,

459
00:25:47,324 --> 00:25:52,204
Speaker 2: including friends. And yeah, I mean I hope he has

460
00:25:53,204 --> 00:25:56,404
Speaker 2: people in his life that can point him in the

461
00:25:56,484 --> 00:25:59,124
Speaker 2: right direction. He has found a bunch of amazing companies.

462
00:25:59,164 --> 00:26:03,244
Speaker 2: And I'd rather have good Elon than evil Elon, I

463
00:26:03,284 --> 00:26:06,044
Speaker 2: guess right, without wanting to precisely define what good and

464
00:26:06,124 --> 00:26:10,924
Speaker 2: evil are, but he is like a world historically important figure.

465
00:26:11,164 --> 00:26:13,004
Speaker 2: It'll probably be better if for the world, if you

466
00:26:13,084 --> 00:26:17,044
Speaker 2: were making more I don't mean sober in a literal sense,

467
00:26:17,044 --> 00:26:19,164
Speaker 2: but like more better, making better decisions more to use

468
00:26:19,164 --> 00:26:20,164
Speaker 2: a taglen of the show.

469
00:26:20,524 --> 00:26:24,724
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, so okay, So summing up Nate, if we

470
00:26:24,724 --> 00:26:27,804
Speaker 1: were to give him a grade on his decision making,

471
00:26:27,964 --> 00:26:29,084
Speaker 1: I don't know do you want to give him a

472
00:26:29,124 --> 00:26:31,484
Speaker 1: letter grade or a number grade, but let's give him

473
00:26:31,484 --> 00:26:31,924
Speaker 1: a grade.

474
00:26:32,004 --> 00:26:32,804
Speaker 2: Let's do a number.

475
00:26:32,924 --> 00:26:36,244
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, let's do zero to ten, with zero being

476
00:26:36,844 --> 00:26:41,124
Speaker 1: absolute disaster, ten being you know, brilliant, best decision maker

477
00:26:41,124 --> 00:26:41,644
Speaker 1: in the world.

478
00:26:41,764 --> 00:26:43,604
Speaker 2: And when's the start out? It starts out.

479
00:26:44,364 --> 00:26:47,084
Speaker 1: We're talking just the Trump tenure from from the moment

480
00:26:47,124 --> 00:26:49,244
Speaker 1: he's appointed, and so.

481
00:26:49,164 --> 00:26:52,724
Speaker 2: We don't give him from a pure EVS play. You

482
00:26:52,764 --> 00:26:56,964
Speaker 2: can give him credit for investing in the Trump campaign, right,

483
00:26:57,084 --> 00:26:58,444
Speaker 2: Let's let's give him two grades.

484
00:26:58,844 --> 00:27:01,484
Speaker 1: Let's give him the grade from his decision to kind

485
00:27:01,484 --> 00:27:05,804
Speaker 1: of pivot to Trump, let's call it that. And let's

486
00:27:05,844 --> 00:27:08,484
Speaker 1: give him a grade for his tenure in the not

487
00:27:09,044 --> 00:27:12,924
Speaker 1: his official tenure in the Trump administration. So two grades.

488
00:27:14,164 --> 00:27:15,884
Speaker 2: To pivot to Trump in the first place. And I'm

489
00:27:15,924 --> 00:27:19,484
Speaker 2: going to ignore what my political preferences are personally from

490
00:27:19,564 --> 00:27:23,924
Speaker 2: that kind of Elon's look, I give him a it's

491
00:27:23,964 --> 00:27:26,004
Speaker 2: hard not to be results oriented, right, I give him

492
00:27:26,084 --> 00:27:28,764
Speaker 2: a five, which is a boring grade. I mean, look,

493
00:27:30,004 --> 00:27:32,004
Speaker 2: on the one hand, he did recognize that, like Trump

494
00:27:32,124 --> 00:27:36,844
Speaker 2: is the rising ship in this election, right, I can

495
00:27:36,924 --> 00:27:39,164
Speaker 2: have access to like a lot of power and a

496
00:27:39,164 --> 00:27:41,484
Speaker 2: lot of influence. I mean it's like tactically, it's kind

497
00:27:41,484 --> 00:27:44,844
Speaker 2: of smart, right strategically in terms of what it means

498
00:27:44,884 --> 00:27:47,844
Speaker 2: for for his life and his brand. I mean, he

499
00:27:47,844 --> 00:27:50,844
Speaker 2: has a very high opportunity cost, right, he has really

500
00:27:50,884 --> 00:27:56,484
Speaker 2: cool jobs as it is, right, and you know, aspires

501
00:27:56,524 --> 00:27:59,844
Speaker 2: of extending human life spans and traveling to Mars or

502
00:27:59,884 --> 00:28:03,964
Speaker 2: building super indulgent AI and all these things, right, and

503
00:28:04,004 --> 00:28:07,844
Speaker 2: so like you know, and you know, initially Tesla gained

504
00:28:07,844 --> 00:28:09,684
Speaker 2: a lot of value in the stock market when Trump

505
00:28:09,684 --> 00:28:11,764
Speaker 2: one and then Elam was brought in, right, and then

506
00:28:11,884 --> 00:28:14,964
Speaker 2: lost all of that back basically and now has rebounded

507
00:28:14,964 --> 00:28:19,084
Speaker 2: some again. Right, So like, yeah, I don't know, you

508
00:28:19,084 --> 00:28:21,724
Speaker 2: can't give him a high grade because, like I think

509
00:28:21,764 --> 00:28:24,524
Speaker 2: you have to be a little bit results oriented. Right,

510
00:28:24,564 --> 00:28:25,804
Speaker 2: he was not able to do it in a way

511
00:28:25,804 --> 00:28:30,084
Speaker 2: that avoided massive backlash toward him and his products, right,

512
00:28:30,124 --> 00:28:31,404
Speaker 2: and was not able to do it in a way

513
00:28:31,444 --> 00:28:34,684
Speaker 2: that was sustainable really, but they did win an election.

514
00:28:34,724 --> 00:28:36,524
Speaker 2: He was one of the key figures in winning a

515
00:28:36,684 --> 00:28:40,644
Speaker 2: vital election at a vital time in world history. And

516
00:28:40,684 --> 00:28:42,644
Speaker 2: so you can't go too low either, yep.

517
00:28:42,964 --> 00:28:44,924
Speaker 1: And what about during the administration.

518
00:28:45,164 --> 00:28:48,764
Speaker 2: I'll give him a two and a half, which is

519
00:28:48,964 --> 00:28:51,844
Speaker 2: rounding up. I'll give him one point for one point

520
00:28:51,884 --> 00:28:53,924
Speaker 2: for pushing back on skilled demigration, one point for pushing

521
00:28:53,924 --> 00:28:56,764
Speaker 2: back on terras, and I'll give him a two point

522
00:28:57,364 --> 00:29:01,684
Speaker 2: three and three tenths of a point for leaving when

523
00:29:01,724 --> 00:29:03,444
Speaker 2: he did the reason three tenths because I think it

524
00:29:03,444 --> 00:29:08,324
Speaker 2: was probably at least seventy percent Trump's decision. Where are

525
00:29:08,324 --> 00:29:09,044
Speaker 2: your scores?

526
00:29:09,444 --> 00:29:13,404
Speaker 1: So I was actually going back and forth between lower

527
00:29:13,444 --> 00:29:16,084
Speaker 1: and higher than a five on his pivot to Trump,

528
00:29:16,484 --> 00:29:18,644
Speaker 1: And so I think I'll end up at a five,

529
00:29:18,684 --> 00:29:21,524
Speaker 1: which is quite boring, but I'll explain what my thinking was.

530
00:29:21,724 --> 00:29:24,924
Speaker 1: So originally I was going to say lower because he

531
00:29:25,124 --> 00:29:29,604
Speaker 1: was one of the reasons that Trump ended up winning.

532
00:29:29,604 --> 00:29:32,804
Speaker 1: I think like that support actually helped Trump at the beginning,

533
00:29:32,804 --> 00:29:35,804
Speaker 1: and that money helped Trump at the beginning. And I

534
00:29:35,844 --> 00:29:39,044
Speaker 1: don't know, obviously this is speculation but had he thrown

535
00:29:39,044 --> 00:29:42,444
Speaker 1: that support towards the Democrats, I think we might have

536
00:29:42,484 --> 00:29:45,004
Speaker 1: seen a different election result. I don't know, right, this

537
00:29:45,124 --> 00:29:48,444
Speaker 1: is a lot of a lot of maybe's, but so

538
00:29:48,924 --> 00:29:53,604
Speaker 1: so on that sense, like it's very hard to disambiguit

539
00:29:53,684 --> 00:29:57,004
Speaker 1: cause and effect here and figure out like was it

540
00:29:57,084 --> 00:30:00,004
Speaker 1: actually a good decision? Right? Would he have been better

541
00:30:00,084 --> 00:30:03,924
Speaker 1: served if Kamala Harris had come to power and like

542
00:30:04,004 --> 00:30:06,804
Speaker 1: he was able to align himself closely with that government,

543
00:30:07,084 --> 00:30:09,604
Speaker 1: which was not, you know, a shit show, and the

544
00:30:09,604 --> 00:30:11,924
Speaker 1: way that you know, Trump two point zero has been

545
00:30:12,324 --> 00:30:15,884
Speaker 1: that might have actually been strategically smarter. And once again,

546
00:30:16,044 --> 00:30:19,524
Speaker 1: it's really really hard to deal with counterfactuals. So so

547
00:30:19,724 --> 00:30:22,004
Speaker 1: I don't know, but that's kind of it's pulling me

548
00:30:22,324 --> 00:30:25,324
Speaker 1: in different directions. The other thing I was thinking about

549
00:30:26,004 --> 00:30:29,724
Speaker 1: was he reminds me of the Russian oligarchs who threw

550
00:30:29,804 --> 00:30:32,844
Speaker 1: in behind Putin right, who helped get Putin in power

551
00:30:32,884 --> 00:30:35,604
Speaker 1: and were like, this is this is what's gonna really

552
00:30:35,604 --> 00:30:38,484
Speaker 1: help my business, and they you know, that was brilliant.

553
00:30:38,644 --> 00:30:41,324
Speaker 1: They made billions of dollars until a lot of them

554
00:30:41,364 --> 00:30:45,124
Speaker 1: started getting killed. And so at the at the end

555
00:30:45,164 --> 00:30:47,564
Speaker 1: of the day, like that wasn't nearly as brilliant. So

556
00:30:47,644 --> 00:30:49,764
Speaker 1: at first, when I was thinking through it, I was like, oh, well,

557
00:30:49,804 --> 00:30:52,964
Speaker 1: that can actually be strategically smart, so higher than a five.

558
00:30:53,364 --> 00:30:57,764
Speaker 1: But most of them died and so so that's actually

559
00:30:57,764 --> 00:31:01,284
Speaker 1: not a very good trade off, And that was the

560
00:31:01,324 --> 00:31:03,284
Speaker 1: other kind of part of what I was thinking about.

561
00:31:03,444 --> 00:31:05,324
Speaker 1: So I ended up at a five. Actually maybe even

562
00:31:05,364 --> 00:31:07,884
Speaker 1: lower than a five, given that both of these end

563
00:31:07,924 --> 00:31:10,284
Speaker 1: up net negatives. So I would give him a four

564
00:31:10,324 --> 00:31:12,364
Speaker 1: on that. Honestly, I'm going to give him a one.

565
00:31:13,124 --> 00:31:16,644
Speaker 1: I don't think that in his time in the administration

566
00:31:17,204 --> 00:31:20,684
Speaker 1: he has accomplished enough to warrant more than a one,

567
00:31:20,724 --> 00:31:23,804
Speaker 1: because even the things that he pushed back on, like tariffs,

568
00:31:24,124 --> 00:31:27,004
Speaker 1: I think that that wasn't him pushing back. I think

569
00:31:27,044 --> 00:31:30,404
Speaker 1: that was popularity ratings and everyone else and Trump just

570
00:31:30,404 --> 00:31:35,044
Speaker 1: going back and forth. And I think that we would

571
00:31:35,084 --> 00:31:37,364
Speaker 1: be in largely the same place we are right now

572
00:31:37,804 --> 00:31:41,084
Speaker 1: even without Elon. So I'm not going to give him

573
00:31:41,084 --> 00:31:43,084
Speaker 1: that much credit for that, And I'm going to give

574
00:31:43,124 --> 00:31:46,124
Speaker 1: him a lot of grief for the chaos that he's

575
00:31:46,164 --> 00:31:49,164
Speaker 1: caused and the brain drain that he's caused, and the

576
00:31:49,244 --> 00:31:52,044
Speaker 1: downstream effects that he's causing for the country. So I

577
00:31:52,124 --> 00:31:56,884
Speaker 1: think his decision making in this particular moment is like

578
00:31:57,444 --> 00:31:59,804
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm being very positive not to give

579
00:31:59,844 --> 00:32:00,284
Speaker 1: him a zero.

580
00:32:01,324 --> 00:32:03,164
Speaker 2: All right, plus.

581
00:32:03,724 --> 00:32:09,724
Speaker 1: Exactly, we're not failing him, but pretty damn close. All right,

582
00:32:09,764 --> 00:32:13,204
Speaker 1: mister Musk, that's our report card for you. Let's take

583
00:32:13,244 --> 00:32:24,484
Speaker 1: a break and talk about government in general. So we

584
00:32:24,564 --> 00:32:27,044
Speaker 1: have a question this week from a listener whose name

585
00:32:27,084 --> 00:32:30,644
Speaker 1: is Tyler, and he writes, how can we change our

586
00:32:30,724 --> 00:32:34,724
Speaker 1: current system of government to allow it to make better decisions? Now,

587
00:32:34,724 --> 00:32:36,644
Speaker 1: he wasn't coming at it from quite the angle that

588
00:32:36,684 --> 00:32:39,564
Speaker 1: I thought he would, but it is a thought provoking angle.

589
00:32:39,644 --> 00:32:41,684
Speaker 1: So this is what he writes. He says, one thing

590
00:32:41,724 --> 00:32:45,404
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about recently is the benefits of autocracy.

591
00:32:45,684 --> 00:32:48,164
Speaker 1: I look at Putin and she and I'm jealous of

592
00:32:48,204 --> 00:32:52,164
Speaker 1: their ability to do real long term planning. And so,

593
00:32:52,564 --> 00:32:55,164
Speaker 1: you know, this is something that has caused Tyler to think,

594
00:32:55,564 --> 00:32:58,604
Speaker 1: is there something that America can do to kind of

595
00:32:59,084 --> 00:33:02,764
Speaker 1: go past short term gains and have more of a

596
00:33:02,884 --> 00:33:04,844
Speaker 1: long term strategic mindset.

597
00:33:06,044 --> 00:33:09,204
Speaker 2: I'm a big believer in democracy. Yeah, Look, but this

598
00:33:09,284 --> 00:33:11,684
Speaker 2: is this is a question. I mean, China can.

599
00:33:11,604 --> 00:33:14,404
Speaker 1: Clearly, China can do things we can't do.

600
00:33:14,604 --> 00:33:17,244
Speaker 2: Yeah, they can build. I mean their way ahead on drones, right,

601
00:33:17,284 --> 00:33:21,204
Speaker 2: they're ahead or catching up on electric vehicles, they're behind

602
00:33:21,284 --> 00:33:26,724
Speaker 2: on AI, they're way ahead on robotics. You know, for

603
00:33:26,724 --> 00:33:28,484
Speaker 2: a long time people thought when you have a whole

604
00:33:28,484 --> 00:33:31,764
Speaker 2: country become middle class, invariably you also have democracy go

605
00:33:31,844 --> 00:33:35,804
Speaker 2: along with it. And China's like no, I mean you

606
00:33:35,804 --> 00:33:38,084
Speaker 2: you know, you are getting closer and closer to free

607
00:33:38,324 --> 00:33:43,324
Speaker 2: entrepreneurship in China. You are not able to talk about

608
00:33:43,364 --> 00:33:47,044
Speaker 2: Tannemin Square without getting in a lot of trouble. And

609
00:33:47,084 --> 00:33:50,084
Speaker 2: they're and they're managing these issues in like very weird ways,

610
00:33:50,084 --> 00:33:52,964
Speaker 2: are getting more progressive on like gay rights. But you're

611
00:33:52,964 --> 00:33:55,004
Speaker 2: you're not going to You're not going to have a democracy,

612
00:33:55,164 --> 00:33:57,204
Speaker 2: And like, you know, that's not a compromise that I'm

613
00:33:57,244 --> 00:34:00,284
Speaker 2: willing to make it necessarily, right.

614
00:34:00,204 --> 00:34:02,764
Speaker 1: Yes, I completely agree with you, But I do want

615
00:34:02,804 --> 00:34:07,484
Speaker 1: to kind of acknowledge that the question where Tyler's question

616
00:34:08,004 --> 00:34:10,764
Speaker 1: is coming from is the question that people have been

617
00:34:11,164 --> 00:34:14,044
Speaker 1: asking for centuries. So if we go back to Plato,

618
00:34:14,204 --> 00:34:17,004
Speaker 1: right and the Republic, you have the idea of the

619
00:34:17,004 --> 00:34:21,164
Speaker 1: philosopher king. So Plato ended up, you know when he

620
00:34:21,804 --> 00:34:25,124
Speaker 1: tried to interrogate which system of government is best, and

621
00:34:25,204 --> 00:34:27,764
Speaker 1: you know, rule by the few, the many, all of

622
00:34:27,804 --> 00:34:30,404
Speaker 1: these different things. He comes to the conclusion that we

623
00:34:30,404 --> 00:34:34,204
Speaker 1: should have basically one person in power who's a philosopher,

624
00:34:34,524 --> 00:34:38,724
Speaker 1: who has all of these different qualities that make him

625
00:34:39,244 --> 00:34:42,644
Speaker 1: wise and that basically make him the best paternalistic ruler.

626
00:34:42,764 --> 00:34:46,164
Speaker 1: He knows what's best for everyone, And it's kind of

627
00:34:46,844 --> 00:34:49,684
Speaker 1: it's a scary thought if you actually try to think

628
00:34:49,724 --> 00:34:52,724
Speaker 1: through the implications. But this is where Plato came out

629
00:34:52,804 --> 00:34:55,564
Speaker 1: as well, and that was one of the things that

630
00:34:55,604 --> 00:34:58,564
Speaker 1: I thought about when I was thinking about Tyler's question.

631
00:34:58,844 --> 00:35:01,924
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that there is lots wrong with

632
00:35:02,164 --> 00:35:06,004
Speaker 1: the US government, but not being an autocracy is not

633
00:35:06,164 --> 00:35:09,124
Speaker 1: one of them. I have always believed that we need

634
00:35:09,164 --> 00:35:12,284
Speaker 1: to the two party system right, that we would actually

635
00:35:12,284 --> 00:35:15,324
Speaker 1: be much better served if we had a more pluralistic

636
00:35:15,364 --> 00:35:20,164
Speaker 1: system with more viable third party options and healthier debate,

637
00:35:20,284 --> 00:35:24,964
Speaker 1: less polarization, right where people actually were able to represent

638
00:35:25,044 --> 00:35:27,284
Speaker 1: more more points of view, which is kind of more

639
00:35:27,324 --> 00:35:30,524
Speaker 1: of the parliamentary system that you see in a lot

640
00:35:30,564 --> 00:35:31,564
Speaker 1: of European countries.

641
00:35:31,924 --> 00:35:35,044
Speaker 2: Well, look, our our system was designed in a world

642
00:35:35,164 --> 00:35:39,284
Speaker 2: where you don't have terribly strong parties, what most of

643
00:35:39,324 --> 00:35:45,484
Speaker 2: the founders assumed, because if you didn't, then, like then

644
00:35:45,484 --> 00:35:47,404
Speaker 2: we'd have much more checks and bounces with Trump in

645
00:35:47,444 --> 00:35:50,204
Speaker 2: the name of Congress in particular, the court I think

646
00:35:50,284 --> 00:35:53,364
Speaker 2: largely has played the role that the founders envisioned for it.

647
00:35:53,404 --> 00:35:56,484
Speaker 2: Believe it or not, right, but like, but Congress, you

648
00:35:56,524 --> 00:35:59,004
Speaker 2: know a lot of things Trump was doing. Again, Congress

649
00:35:59,044 --> 00:36:04,044
Speaker 2: has power to restrict Trump on tariffs, which is both

650
00:36:04,164 --> 00:36:07,004
Speaker 2: directly unpopular and indirectly hurting the economach will hurt all of

651
00:36:07,044 --> 00:36:09,084
Speaker 2: their jobs, right, And they're not able to do it

652
00:36:09,124 --> 00:36:12,924
Speaker 2: because there are Republican primaries where where they face far

653
00:36:12,964 --> 00:36:16,164
Speaker 2: more threat. Most Republican members face more threat from losing

654
00:36:16,204 --> 00:36:20,644
Speaker 2: a GOP primary challenge than from losing a general election. Right.

655
00:36:20,684 --> 00:36:22,244
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a little bit unclear kind of what

656
00:36:22,284 --> 00:36:24,764
Speaker 2: we're allowed to fee out or what we're not. I

657
00:36:24,764 --> 00:36:27,084
Speaker 2: will say, sometimes you walk around New York, you know,

658
00:36:27,204 --> 00:36:28,924
Speaker 2: nice spring day or whatever. You're like, I'm in all

659
00:36:28,964 --> 00:36:31,484
Speaker 2: these buildings and parks, and you're like, I'm amazed we

660
00:36:31,484 --> 00:36:34,044
Speaker 2: haven't just all killed each other by now. Right, Even

661
00:36:34,084 --> 00:36:37,084
Speaker 2: being some have a long history of violence, they're able

662
00:36:37,084 --> 00:36:41,764
Speaker 2: to get together and you know, countries have great epics

663
00:36:41,804 --> 00:36:44,364
Speaker 2: and eras. Maybe the United States is out of its

664
00:36:44,404 --> 00:36:46,324
Speaker 2: great era in some ways. The fact that we can't

665
00:36:46,884 --> 00:36:50,364
Speaker 2: build things as fast as we used to do is frustrating,

666
00:36:50,724 --> 00:36:53,644
Speaker 2: I think. But you know, look, the checks and balances

667
00:36:53,644 --> 00:36:57,604
Speaker 2: at the framers design isn't a bad system, but it's

668
00:36:57,604 --> 00:37:02,404
Speaker 2: like deliberately a hard system to change. Right, the threshold

669
00:37:02,404 --> 00:37:06,644
Speaker 2: for many of the constitution is high. And if you

670
00:37:06,684 --> 00:37:09,444
Speaker 2: get into a lock in where you have extra i

671
00:37:09,484 --> 00:37:12,844
Speaker 2: mean partisanship on the one hand, which makes it impossible

672
00:37:12,844 --> 00:37:19,284
Speaker 2: to achieve super majorities on most things, right, then that

673
00:37:19,324 --> 00:37:21,884
Speaker 2: creates lots of problems. You know, I'm starting to sound

674
00:37:21,924 --> 00:37:23,564
Speaker 2: like one of these middle aged guys who's more worried

675
00:37:23,564 --> 00:37:26,284
Speaker 2: about like a debt crisis in the long term, right,

676
00:37:26,364 --> 00:37:29,964
Speaker 2: markets are, and I tend to trust markets on that.

677
00:37:30,004 --> 00:37:32,764
Speaker 2: You know, that's one problem that we face. I think

678
00:37:32,844 --> 00:37:36,924
Speaker 2: the cuts that people are making to the to long

679
00:37:37,044 --> 00:37:42,884
Speaker 2: term research and development and scientific programs right, the deterrent

680
00:37:43,044 --> 00:37:46,884
Speaker 2: to the most talented people coming to the United States.

681
00:37:46,924 --> 00:37:48,484
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, all of these things I think

682
00:37:48,484 --> 00:37:52,404
Speaker 2: are going to have long term consequences that reduce our

683
00:37:53,124 --> 00:37:56,724
Speaker 2: leadership a bit. And America gets away with a lot

684
00:37:56,764 --> 00:37:59,004
Speaker 2: because we have the world's most powerful military, at least

685
00:37:59,124 --> 00:38:02,804
Speaker 2: top two and a half. Right, we have a world's

686
00:38:02,884 --> 00:38:06,884
Speaker 2: leading currency, right, and we had a huge head start.

687
00:38:06,964 --> 00:38:08,604
Speaker 2: I mean, everyone else kind of you know, Europe has

688
00:38:08,644 --> 00:38:12,244
Speaker 2: had problem was China starting from a very low baseline.

689
00:38:12,324 --> 00:38:14,124
Speaker 2: So we had a big head start and a lot

690
00:38:14,124 --> 00:38:17,804
Speaker 2: of advantages we have. You know, we're protected from from

691
00:38:18,084 --> 00:38:21,444
Speaker 2: foreign invasions. Who a degree, you aren't if you're in Eurasia. Right,

692
00:38:22,644 --> 00:38:25,084
Speaker 2: Our natural resources are very rich. If we had to

693
00:38:25,124 --> 00:38:29,124
Speaker 2: become self sufficient, then we absolutely could. Right. We have

694
00:38:29,124 --> 00:38:33,484
Speaker 2: a lot of soft power based on our creativity and

695
00:38:33,524 --> 00:38:37,084
Speaker 2: our capitalism and our brands and and things like that. Right,

696
00:38:37,164 --> 00:38:38,484
Speaker 2: And you know, it'd be kind of a shame if

697
00:38:38,484 --> 00:38:40,324
Speaker 2: we've we fucked it up, right.

698
00:38:40,204 --> 00:38:44,764
Speaker 1: But well, we're on our way, rights, as you just said,

699
00:38:44,804 --> 00:38:46,644
Speaker 1: we're on our way to fucking it up because a

700
00:38:46,684 --> 00:38:49,564
Speaker 1: lot of those things that give us our power are

701
00:38:50,124 --> 00:38:52,364
Speaker 1: under threat right now, and that is not going to

702
00:38:52,404 --> 00:38:55,164
Speaker 1: help government. And having a putin in charge is certainly

703
00:38:55,204 --> 00:39:00,724
Speaker 1: not going to help that situation. Because if in some ways,

704
00:39:00,764 --> 00:39:02,564
Speaker 1: you know, what Trump is trying to do right now

705
00:39:03,084 --> 00:39:06,124
Speaker 1: is not dissimilar from what happens in autocracies, right, with

706
00:39:06,204 --> 00:39:09,004
Speaker 1: all of the executive orders, trying to circumvent the checks

707
00:39:09,004 --> 00:39:12,884
Speaker 1: and balance, says, trying to circumvent Congress. It hasn't worked

708
00:39:12,924 --> 00:39:15,004
Speaker 1: as well because we do you know, we're not in

709
00:39:15,044 --> 00:39:17,964
Speaker 1: an autocracy yet. But I'm saying that's what he's kind

710
00:39:17,964 --> 00:39:19,884
Speaker 1: of if you look at what he's trying to do,

711
00:39:20,764 --> 00:39:23,204
Speaker 1: that is kind of the the approach is, let me

712
00:39:23,284 --> 00:39:25,204
Speaker 1: just executive order my way through this.

713
00:39:25,324 --> 00:39:27,844
Speaker 2: I mean, IFDR got struck down a lot by the courts, right,

714
00:39:27,884 --> 00:39:29,924
Speaker 2: I don't know if Yeah, I think some people would

715
00:39:29,924 --> 00:39:31,924
Speaker 2: say he had autocratic Oh.

716
00:39:31,964 --> 00:39:35,604
Speaker 1: Absolutely, FDR was a disaster in that respect. I mean

717
00:39:35,604 --> 00:39:38,524
Speaker 1: he was. He's the reason that we have term limits

718
00:39:38,724 --> 00:39:42,244
Speaker 1: on the presidency. He's the only one who did not

719
00:39:42,444 --> 00:39:46,924
Speaker 1: bow to president. Everyone else willingly left after two terms

720
00:39:46,964 --> 00:39:49,604
Speaker 1: and there was no need for a constitutional amendment. And

721
00:39:49,644 --> 00:39:53,404
Speaker 1: it was because of FDR that we have that constitutional amendment. So, yeah,

722
00:39:53,564 --> 00:39:57,204
Speaker 1: Trump is not the first. So all I mean is that,

723
00:39:57,564 --> 00:40:01,284
Speaker 1: you know, if you're looking admiringly at that sort of approach,

724
00:40:01,324 --> 00:40:02,804
Speaker 1: you can see that there are a lot of issues

725
00:40:02,804 --> 00:40:04,524
Speaker 1: with it. And by the way, you certainly do not

726
00:40:04,604 --> 00:40:07,844
Speaker 1: want to be living in Russia right where right now,

727
00:40:08,444 --> 00:40:11,004
Speaker 1: that is not a good state living and that is

728
00:40:11,044 --> 00:40:13,324
Speaker 1: not a good society to live in. So you see

729
00:40:13,404 --> 00:40:15,244
Speaker 1: kind of what ends up happening. And a lot of

730
00:40:15,324 --> 00:40:18,444
Speaker 1: the things that we take for granted are kind of

731
00:40:18,524 --> 00:40:21,444
Speaker 1: consequences of the fact that we live in a democratic society.

732
00:40:22,084 --> 00:40:26,124
Speaker 1: But yeah, would we be better off if we had

733
00:40:26,164 --> 00:40:30,324
Speaker 1: a more more robust democratic institutions, right if kind of

734
00:40:30,364 --> 00:40:36,124
Speaker 1: we were able to revive the critical thinking that I

735
00:40:36,164 --> 00:40:40,204
Speaker 1: think has largely fallen by the wayside as people have

736
00:40:40,284 --> 00:40:43,444
Speaker 1: become incredibly polarized. You know, we've talked before about how

737
00:40:43,444 --> 00:40:48,644
Speaker 1: both parties are quite broken in different ways, and I

738
00:40:48,644 --> 00:40:51,204
Speaker 1: think that if we're trying to have a better long

739
00:40:51,284 --> 00:40:54,404
Speaker 1: term government strategy, we need to look to that and

740
00:40:54,404 --> 00:40:57,244
Speaker 1: try to figure out, you know, how do we create

741
00:40:57,324 --> 00:41:00,524
Speaker 1: a system that doesn't reward polarization. Because one of the

742
00:41:00,524 --> 00:41:02,924
Speaker 1: things you're talking about, Nate, is that you know, people

743
00:41:02,964 --> 00:41:05,964
Speaker 1: want to win their elections, right, they're afraid to lose.

744
00:41:06,484 --> 00:41:09,084
Speaker 1: They're afraid to kind of do things that will potentially

745
00:41:09,124 --> 00:41:11,484
Speaker 1: make lose and it's a vicious cycle. So how do

746
00:41:11,524 --> 00:41:14,364
Speaker 1: we break that, right, Like, how do we actually give

747
00:41:14,404 --> 00:41:17,204
Speaker 1: them And this happens It's funny this happens in businesses too.

748
00:41:17,284 --> 00:41:21,124
Speaker 1: I just recently was talking to some business leaders who

749
00:41:21,244 --> 00:41:24,244
Speaker 1: kind of asked how they can have kind of better

750
00:41:24,284 --> 00:41:26,364
Speaker 1: innovation in their businesses, and I was like, well, you

751
00:41:26,444 --> 00:41:29,804
Speaker 1: need to actually not just say that you reward creativity,

752
00:41:29,844 --> 00:41:32,804
Speaker 1: but not punish people when they fail. Right, If someone

753
00:41:32,804 --> 00:41:34,604
Speaker 1: who takes a risk and it doesn't work out, you

754
00:41:34,684 --> 00:41:37,564
Speaker 1: fire them, then that tells everyone all they need to

755
00:41:37,604 --> 00:41:40,844
Speaker 1: know about how you value risk taking and creative thinking.

756
00:41:41,364 --> 00:41:44,124
Speaker 1: And here we're kind of seeing the same thing where

757
00:41:44,444 --> 00:41:48,804
Speaker 1: people are afraid of saying something, doing something, and then

758
00:41:48,844 --> 00:41:51,764
Speaker 1: not getting re elected. They're afraid to speak up. They're

759
00:41:51,884 --> 00:41:55,724
Speaker 1: kind of afraid of that sort of environment, and that

760
00:41:55,844 --> 00:41:58,284
Speaker 1: is not a good state of affairs. I think that's

761
00:41:58,324 --> 00:42:00,484
Speaker 1: something that we should work towards fixing.

762
00:42:00,564 --> 00:42:03,444
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, let me say a couple of things, right, Like,

763
00:42:03,484 --> 00:42:05,764
Speaker 2: you know, one answer is maybe we need a contenst

764
00:42:05,844 --> 00:42:07,844
Speaker 2: that we want to devolve more power to state and

765
00:42:07,884 --> 00:42:10,124
Speaker 2: local governments, which seem to be more functional and are

766
00:42:10,164 --> 00:42:13,004
Speaker 2: often less partisan. Right, they used to be seen as

767
00:42:13,084 --> 00:42:16,484
Speaker 2: like Democrats didn't like that. They liked you know, they

768
00:42:16,524 --> 00:42:18,884
Speaker 2: thought that states would take rights away that were conserus

769
00:42:18,884 --> 00:42:20,804
Speaker 2: to protected, et cetera. But like maybe that just kind

770
00:42:20,804 --> 00:42:24,924
Speaker 2: of the equilibrium that would best serve everyone involved. I mean, look,

771
00:42:25,244 --> 00:42:27,724
Speaker 2: I do want to put the brakes on. You know,

772
00:42:27,844 --> 00:42:31,804
Speaker 2: we still don't know about like the long term future

773
00:42:31,884 --> 00:42:35,444
Speaker 2: of China or the United States. Right, you have countries

774
00:42:35,484 --> 00:42:37,804
Speaker 2: that are quite harmonious wh they're going through this middle

775
00:42:37,804 --> 00:42:40,404
Speaker 2: class stage and then reach like South Korea, right, And

776
00:42:40,444 --> 00:42:43,724
Speaker 2: now South Korea is at a more mature stage where

777
00:42:43,724 --> 00:42:46,524
Speaker 2: they have a GDP per capite's higher than Japan, for example,

778
00:42:46,604 --> 00:42:50,084
Speaker 2: and they're having impeachment and political turmoil and people are

779
00:42:50,484 --> 00:42:53,044
Speaker 2: unhappy there. So we don't know where China ends up,

780
00:42:53,044 --> 00:42:55,764
Speaker 2: and we don't know where the US ends up. I mean,

781
00:42:55,804 --> 00:43:00,364
Speaker 2: you have seen some shifts in coalitions, right, Like, I

782
00:43:00,404 --> 00:43:04,204
Speaker 2: think there are certain ways in which the response to

783
00:43:04,964 --> 00:43:08,804
Speaker 2: Democrats has been a healthy response, right, Where Democrats have

784
00:43:08,884 --> 00:43:12,844
Speaker 2: been complace and lazy about a lot of things. Right,

785
00:43:13,364 --> 00:43:17,364
Speaker 2: Renominating Biden and lighting people about it was really pathetic. Right.

786
00:43:17,564 --> 00:43:22,164
Speaker 2: They have taken for granted certain types of voters like

787
00:43:22,244 --> 00:43:25,884
Speaker 2: African Americans and younger voters and everything else. Right, and men, right,

788
00:43:26,164 --> 00:43:29,484
Speaker 2: you know, they're losing grandival men and like, so they

789
00:43:29,564 --> 00:43:31,964
Speaker 2: kind of deserve it. But maybe maybe there'll be some

790
00:43:33,604 --> 00:43:38,724
Speaker 2: declined from partisanship eventually. I mean, all trends reverse themselves

791
00:43:38,964 --> 00:43:45,204
Speaker 2: over some window. Maybe AI will radically remake the political

792
00:43:45,244 --> 00:43:48,004
Speaker 2: coalitions in different ways. I mean, it certainly feels like

793
00:43:48,004 --> 00:43:52,084
Speaker 2: a dynamic time, and dynamic means Hiberians and Hyberiants includes

794
00:43:52,324 --> 00:43:55,324
Speaker 2: good outcomes. But I don't know, I not feeling.

795
00:43:55,164 --> 00:43:59,124
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think, Yeah, Tyler, this was a really

796
00:43:59,204 --> 00:44:01,884
Speaker 1: interesting question. We don't have an easy answer, right, We

797
00:44:01,884 --> 00:44:02,484
Speaker 1: don't really.

798
00:44:02,284 --> 00:44:06,564
Speaker 2: Have like so look, people with the good guver will say, oh,

799
00:44:06,604 --> 00:44:12,604
Speaker 2: you can have like more nonpartisan primaries and ranked choice voting.

800
00:44:12,604 --> 00:44:15,084
Speaker 2: Actually good stuff probably does help. I mean, you know,

801
00:44:15,164 --> 00:44:16,524
Speaker 2: and if we're gonna do like a New York mayoral

802
00:44:16,564 --> 00:44:18,564
Speaker 2: episode ranked choice voting as a factor in the mayor's

803
00:44:18,644 --> 00:44:23,164
Speaker 2: race here, you know, but like it's kind of because

804
00:44:23,164 --> 00:44:26,564
Speaker 2: the constitution's hard to change, then you kind of have

805
00:44:26,604 --> 00:44:30,164
Speaker 2: to change political culture and that's and that's difficult.

806
00:44:30,564 --> 00:44:32,804
Speaker 1: Ranked choice voting, Nate, I think, is a good example

807
00:44:32,884 --> 00:44:35,924
Speaker 1: of things that could on the margin help. And as

808
00:44:35,964 --> 00:44:39,284
Speaker 1: we know as poker players, on the margin is actually important, right,

809
00:44:39,364 --> 00:44:41,604
Speaker 1: Elections can be one or lost on the margin.

810
00:44:42,004 --> 00:44:45,924
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the margin matters more when things are approximately

811
00:44:45,924 --> 00:44:50,284
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty, right, you know, two Senate seats versus

812
00:44:50,364 --> 00:44:53,484
Speaker 2: three next year for Democrats makes a huge difference as

813
00:44:53,484 --> 00:44:55,444
Speaker 2: far as their ability to win a trifecta in twenty

814
00:44:55,484 --> 00:44:57,964
Speaker 2: twenty eight, right. I mean it often comes down to

815
00:44:58,044 --> 00:45:00,924
Speaker 2: just like one one seat, yep, yep.

816
00:45:01,244 --> 00:45:03,444
Speaker 1: So I think that this is all really important to remember.

817
00:45:03,804 --> 00:45:05,964
Speaker 1: Thanks for the question, Tyler. We wish we had an

818
00:45:05,964 --> 00:45:11,484
Speaker 1: easier answer, but this was a really interesting discussion. Let

819
00:45:11,564 --> 00:45:13,524
Speaker 1: us know what you think of the show. Reach out

820
00:45:13,524 --> 00:45:17,644
Speaker 1: to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. And

821
00:45:17,764 --> 00:45:19,884
Speaker 1: by the way, if you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, we

822
00:45:19,964 --> 00:45:22,684
Speaker 1: have some bonus content for you that's coming up right

823
00:45:22,724 --> 00:45:23,644
Speaker 1: after the credits.

824
00:45:23,844 --> 00:45:27,124
Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for

825
00:45:27,284 --> 00:45:29,484
Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price.

826
00:45:29,804 --> 00:45:32,604
Speaker 2: You get access to all that premium content and ad

827
00:45:32,644 --> 00:45:35,284
Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows.

828
00:45:35,764 --> 00:45:38,804
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanikova.

829
00:45:38,364 --> 00:45:40,684
Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co

830
00:45:40,764 --> 00:45:44,844
Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced

831
00:45:44,844 --> 00:45:49,084
Speaker 2: by Isabelle Carter, our associate producer is Sonya Gerwin. Sally

832
00:45:49,164 --> 00:45:52,164
Speaker 2: Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

833
00:45:52,684 --> 00:45:53,884
Speaker 2: Mixing by Sarah Bruger.

834
00:45:54,284 --> 00:45:56,764
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for tuning in to