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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt parraltiroffittingpros dot com. We're always being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM and you can follow me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at sports Doc Matt. All right, so let's recap a Friday.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, so we gave back pretty much everything we

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Speaker 1: had won on Thursday. So we were up about two

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Speaker 1: and a half three units. We gave up, gave back

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Speaker 1: two point one units yesterday because well, it was not

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Speaker 1: a good day Nebraska and Iowa. Iowa wins. Iowa does

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Speaker 1: not cover that was frustrating the defense and not play

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Speaker 1: very well on the quarterback for Iowa just did not

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Speaker 1: play good at all. So that to six point win

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Speaker 1: with a thirteen and a half point line, that was

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Speaker 1: a full unit loss. We had Iowa State and Texas.

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Speaker 1: I thought about taking the Cyclones outright in that game,

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Speaker 1: but just something about that Iowa State team just concerned

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Speaker 1: me a little bit. And we were rolling towards the

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Speaker 1: over in that game and then nope, they threw the

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Speaker 1: brakes on and that game goes under. Iowa State wins,

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Speaker 1: so we get a loss on that one for a

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Speaker 1: full unit and then Nebraska, sorry North Carolina and Notre Dame, well,

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Speaker 1: the over came nowhere near hitting. And then the second

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Speaker 1: half for Carolina they did nothing against that Notre Dame offense.

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Speaker 1: Give a lot of credit to the Irish defense for

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Speaker 1: really making adjustments after the first two possessions went touchdown, touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That was basically it except for a field goal late

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Speaker 1: in the first half for North Carolina. It was just

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Speaker 1: a really tail of two halfs there in terms of

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Speaker 1: offense and what was going to happen or what was

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Speaker 1: happening on the field. So Carolina, both those bets go down.

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Speaker 1: So we got a couple of basketball that's right, So

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Speaker 1: that saved us a little bit. We got a couple

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Speaker 1: of half unit plays with Boise and Gonzaga for half

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Speaker 1: unit plays that wound up bouncing back for us. But overall,

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Speaker 1: not a very good day. So as you guys know,

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Speaker 1: when I go hot, I tend to go a little

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Speaker 1: bit heavy, like I did yesterday, and then when we

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Speaker 1: give it back, we pull back on the rains and

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Speaker 1: we kind of go into a shell a little bit

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Speaker 1: and become defensive before we go back at it. So

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Speaker 1: here's how I'm approaching Saturday. I don't love the Slate today,

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Speaker 1: both college basketball or college football. I'm more in line,

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Speaker 1: more eyeing Sunday for the NFL than I am eyeing Saturday.

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Speaker 1: So I've got three plays, all at full units, three plays.

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Speaker 1: I basically just try to boil it down to my

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Speaker 1: three favorite bets. So that's what I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: guys here, That's where I've bet, and so no prop bets,

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Speaker 1: no college basketball, just three college football bets that I

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Speaker 1: feel the most confident in, and then that'll get us

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Speaker 1: to Sunday. We got a ton going on. We've got

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Speaker 1: the live stream coming up on Sunday morning at eleven

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Speaker 1: am Eastern with prop bets and everything else going on

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Got the podcast tomorrow, which will have

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Speaker 1: my plays in the NFL. You already know I've got

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs at minus three and a half tomorrow against Tampa.

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Speaker 1: But we'll have other bets and other plays going tomorrow

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Speaker 1: on the podcast for the Daily Juice, And well, we've

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Speaker 1: got quite a few things to get into coming up tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: podcast and live stream. Plus we are approaching the end

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Speaker 1: whatever it might be. The latest review was Bobby Hurley

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Speaker 1: FYI I was wrong about Bobby Hurley being the head

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the three games going today,

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Speaker 1: the three games I am playing. Let's first start with

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Speaker 1: Michigan and Penn State. So you know what I do

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Speaker 1: with Penn State, right, So I pick up the phone

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Speaker 1: and I make a phone call to my Penn State

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Speaker 1: expert being Dave Schapan, and I run through here's how

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Speaker 1: I want to bet this now Michigan. At the time

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Speaker 1: when I bet this, at the time of taping, it

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Speaker 1: was a pick. Now there's there's an expectation that Penn

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Speaker 1: State money is going to come in here, and it

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Speaker 1: most likely Penn State will go off as a very

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Speaker 1: slight favorite. Oh and five. Penn State oh and five.

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Speaker 1: They have never been oh and five. However, they're up

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Speaker 1: against a team in Michigan who has really struggled. They're

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Speaker 1: two and three on the year. They beat Minnesota and

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Speaker 1: they beat Rutgers, and that's it. Okay, that is it.

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Speaker 1: This is It's going to be a very ugly game.

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Speaker 1: But Michigan is at home, all right, they're at home.

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Speaker 1: You have an ow to five Penn State team and

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Speaker 1: they don't know who their quarterback is. That is a

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Speaker 1: significant deal. Okay. When you don't know when you've got

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Speaker 1: two quarterbacks, you really have no quarterbacks. And I don't

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Speaker 1: think Penn State's got a quarterback. Okay. I don't love

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Speaker 1: Michigan's offense, I don't love Michigan's defense, but I think

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Speaker 1: Michigan is the better football team. Okay, they're at home.

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Speaker 1: I'm not laying anything. It's just who wins this at

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Speaker 1: minus one ten, all right, Michigan scoring thirty six points

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Speaker 1: per game. Sorry, oh no, sorry, thirty point six points

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Speaker 1: per game. They're giving up thirty six, which is not good.

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Speaker 1: Penn State's also giving up thirty six points, but they're

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Speaker 1: only scoring twenty four points per game. Penn State can't

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Speaker 1: really run the football, but Michigan can't really stop the run.

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Speaker 1: Michigan can't really run the football. Penn State's pretty good

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Speaker 1: at stopping the run, but they can't stop the pass.

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Speaker 1: They're giving up over seven point five yards per pass

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Speaker 1: play to what Michigan averages. I just think Michigan's a

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Speaker 1: better team by a little bit, and I mean a

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Speaker 1: little little little bit. One point win, two point win,

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Speaker 1: ugly football game. But just to pick Michigan or Penn

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Speaker 1: State who's better, I'm gonna take Michigan here. Michigan's at home.

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Speaker 1: Michigan full unit to win the game outright over Penn

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Speaker 1: State to drop Penn State to zero to seven. If

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Speaker 1: Penn State was at home, I might take Penn State.

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Speaker 1: But they're not. They're on the road and there's no

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Speaker 1: crowd and whatnot, but it's still travel. It's still different,

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Speaker 1: still different locker room and whatnot. And they are really down,

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Speaker 1: I mean really down at Penn State. Michigan gets to

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Speaker 1: three and three, they win the game, first game, first

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Speaker 1: win here for us. Hopefully on the day, Michigan just

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Speaker 1: to win nine am Pacific time, noon kick. Michigan beats

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Speaker 1: Penn State one unit on that game. Number two, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the Iron Bowl. Have you guys ever been

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Speaker 1: to the Iron Bowl? The Iron Bowl is a truly special, historic,

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Speaker 1: must attend type event. When they say the SEC it

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Speaker 1: just means more. They're not kidding, it does. I worked

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Speaker 1: there for five years. I've been to five of these,

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Speaker 1: both at Auburn and at Alabama. I have seen the

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Speaker 1: crazies I have seen. I've received death threats for picking

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Speaker 1: the wrong side in this game. When cell phone numbers

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Speaker 1: were easily accessible. I had a beamfan call me and

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Speaker 1: threatened to kill me because I picked Auburn to win

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Speaker 1: the Iron Bowl and I was wrong. Okay, this is

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Speaker 1: a different type of world, This is a different type

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Speaker 1: of football game. Three sixty five. They talk about this

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Speaker 1: game every day. It's incredible. They do every single day.

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Speaker 1: And it means more to guys like bo Nix, who

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Speaker 1: grew up inside of this rivalry. And I mean he

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Speaker 1: eats it and drinks it, and he knows exactly what

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Speaker 1: it means. For Auburn fans. On the road at Alabama,

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Speaker 1: all eyes are on Tank Bigsby. Will he play? Will

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Speaker 1: he not right? Hip injury? Will he be one hundred percent?

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Speaker 1: Probably not? Okay? But without him, Auburn's in real trouble. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I cannot bet Auburn plus twenty four and a half,

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Speaker 1: and I can't lay Alabama minus twenty four and a

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Speaker 1: half simply because of the injury to Tank Bigsby. I

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Speaker 1: think it's that big of a deal. I think it

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Speaker 1: would would change who I bet on, because I think

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Speaker 1: if Tank is out, laying twenty four and a half

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Speaker 1: is not a bad idea. If Tank plays, I think

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Speaker 1: Auburn could potentially keep the keep the game somewhat within

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Speaker 1: seventeen points. So that's my concern here with taking a

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Speaker 1: side the night before. I may get involved with the

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Speaker 1: side before the game kicks off. If Tank is out,

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Speaker 1: I very well might go ahead and take Alabama minus

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Speaker 1: twenty four and a half. However, the line may jump

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Speaker 1: at the news of Tank playing or not, so instead,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a look at the total here. The

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Speaker 1: total is sixty two Auburn and Alabama. Auburn is two

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Speaker 1: and five to the over this year, but Alabama is

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Speaker 1: five and two to the over this year. Alabama off

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Speaker 1: with their sixty three to three destruction of Kentucky. The

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Speaker 1: last four games have all gone under for Auburn, but

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Speaker 1: Alabama opened up the year with four straight overs, and

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Speaker 1: the number is kind of caught up, and they got

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Speaker 1: a little silly sixty seven, sixty four and a half,

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Speaker 1: and they did not cover either one of those numbers.

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Speaker 1: Sixty two is number this time around Alabama. Last time out,

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Speaker 1: fifty seven and a half, they covered it themselves with

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Speaker 1: sixty three points. Do I think Auburn's gonna score? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I do think Auburn's going to score how many points?

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Speaker 1: I think Auburn can score twenty points? I think Alabama

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Speaker 1: is right there around the twenty four point mark. I

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Speaker 1: think Alabama scores forty four points. I can't play the

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Speaker 1: under because Alabama has the ability to hang fifty on

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Speaker 1: Auburn and they will not stop. Alabama will not take

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Speaker 1: their foot off the gas year. So Auburn gets to twenty,

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Speaker 1: and then how many points will Bama score? That's the goal.

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Speaker 1: That's the only question I've got here. And I can't

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Speaker 1: say that Bama doesn't hang forty. I think it's without

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Speaker 1: even blinking an eye, they hang forty. So can they

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Speaker 1: can they score forty three? Yeah? They can score forty three.

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Speaker 1: So I'm comfortable with the over here. Sixty two. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna take the over Alabama. Auburn I don't

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Speaker 1: think Bama's defense is anywhere near what it once was.

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Speaker 1: Alabama has. I mean, so many guys went to the

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Speaker 1: NFL last year. They're giving up, you know, five yards

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Speaker 1: of play. That's not typical for Alabama. Man, that's a lot.

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Speaker 1: Six point six yards in the passing game. That's not Bama.

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Speaker 1: Even three point five rusher per per rush. Giving up

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Speaker 1: yardist wise is not typical of Alabama. They don't get

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Speaker 1: after the quarterback the same way. It's just not a

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Speaker 1: good year. Look. I don't like bo Knicks at all

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Speaker 1: for Auburn. But this is the game. Okay, this is

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Speaker 1: just what this kid does. So to me, I think

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Speaker 1: this is no defense, back and forth battle. I do

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Speaker 1: think Auburn scores. I think Mac Jones is trying to

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Speaker 1: win the Heisman, putting up big numbers here sixty two

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Speaker 1: over Alabama and Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and then

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Speaker 1: the third play. I'm gonna go and bet a game

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Speaker 1: on a team that burned me earlier. If you remember,

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Speaker 1: I bet the over on Syracuse in Louisville. I think

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Speaker 1: it was a Thursday night game and I bet the over,

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Speaker 1: and boy, nowhere near didn't come anywhere near it and

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Speaker 1: the reason why Syracuse's offense is absolutely horrible. Now Syracuse

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Speaker 1: is at home. Okay, the number that I got was

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Speaker 1: fifty one. Okay, fifty one for NC State and Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: I look directly to the total because I don't think

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Speaker 1: Syracuse scores. But I'm not entirely comfortable with NC State's offense.

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Speaker 1: I'm not entirely comfortable about where they are. So you

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Speaker 1: look to the under four and five Syracuse as they

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Speaker 1: are to the over. But they covered four straight overs

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Speaker 1: between Georgia Tech, Duke, Liberty, and Clemson. All those games

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Speaker 1: went over. All those games, except for the Georgia Tech game,

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Speaker 1: were bad double digit losses. Lost to Duke thirty eight

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Speaker 1: to twenty four, lost to Liberty thirty eight twenty one,

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Speaker 1: lost to Clemson forty seven to twenty one. The last

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Speaker 1: three games for Syracuse have gone under. Against Wake they

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Speaker 1: lost thirty eight fourteen. Against Boston College they lost sixteen thirteen,

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Speaker 1: and last time out, they got shut out against Louisville.

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Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, thirty to nothing. Their offense is pathetic.

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Speaker 1: The Orange can't do anything. NC State, though the last

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Speaker 1: two games their offense has slowed down a little bit.

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Speaker 1: They only scored fourteen points against Liberty or I guess

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Speaker 1: fifteen against Liberty in a one point win, and then

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Speaker 1: they scored thirty eight and gave up twenty two to

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Speaker 1: Florida State in the under hit there as well going

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Speaker 1: into the last couple of weeks before those two games,

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Speaker 1: but there was definitely some points being scored over against

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Speaker 1: North Carolina. They gave up forty eight points to them,

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Speaker 1: forty four points given up to Miami. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Syracuse scores. I mean they might score seven points here.

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Speaker 1: I also don't think NC State's gonna score more than thirty.

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Speaker 1: So to me, this is almost the identical game to Louisville,

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Speaker 1: where we bet the over when it was fifty six.

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Speaker 1: This was fifty one. It's not that different. It's a

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Speaker 1: little bit different, but it's five point difference, but it's

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Speaker 1: still in the fifties. I don't think Syracuse is gonna score.

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Speaker 1: I'm playing the under here, even though unders are dangerous.

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Speaker 1: Under fifty one for NC State in Syracuse. I just

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Speaker 1: don't think the Orans score more than seven points. I

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Speaker 1: don't think NC State scores more than thirty, So we're

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Speaker 1: going under NC State in Syracuse here for our third

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Speaker 1: play of the day. So to recap our three plays

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, Michigan pick them just to win the game

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Speaker 1: at home against Penn State over Iron Bowl Auburn and

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Speaker 1: Alabama at sixty two, and we're taking the under NC

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Speaker 1: State in Syracuse at fifty one. Here for our three plays,

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Speaker 1: all at one unit. Remember to enter to win the

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Speaker 1: Davante Adams Helmets. Bettingpros dot Com slash Juice for your screenshot, review,

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Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, or on Stitcher. We are back tomorrow beginning

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Speaker 1: at eleven am. For the live stream on YouTube, go

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Speaker 1: hit subscribe on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Podcast drops

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Speaker 1: on Sunday for what will be a very interesting, interesting Sunday.

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Speaker 1: By the way, Dan Harris did put out a Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. He just just did it solo because

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Speaker 1: I was tied up. I had a really bad Saturday,

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Speaker 1: not just betting my wife's car Wooden Star tight to two,

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Speaker 1: a bunch of crap for my wife and my kid. Like,

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Speaker 1: it was just a really rough day all the way around.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad to be on Sunday. I'm happy to say

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Speaker 1: go by to Saturday. So Dan has that podcast. It

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Speaker 1: is out, so you can go find that where you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts for Betting Pros the NFL Podcast. He'll

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Speaker 1: tell you. We're taking the week off from the DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: We're not in it this week. You have to take

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Speaker 1: two breaks, so this is the break we're gonna take,

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Speaker 1: which I am happy to do so because the slate's

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Speaker 1: ugly and frankly, I'm just all out of sorts this

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Speaker 1: weekend with all sorts of things happening, So not a great,

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Speaker 1: great weekend for me, but we're gonna punt on the DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: We're back next week with video and audio and whatnot

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Speaker 1: for the Betting Pros NFL podcast with Dan Harris and myself.

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Speaker 1: But we're back tomorrow for the Daily Juice. Every single morning,

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Speaker 1: every morning, it's The Juice Podcast with me Matt Paroltz.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at sports dot Matt. We're always

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Speaker 1: on Bettingpros dot com and we're always brought to you

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Speaker 1: by BETMGM