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Speaker 1: Welcome back, everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter

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Speaker 1: at bogmin Sports. I'm joined as always by Thorn Nystrom

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Speaker 1: at thor Ku on the Twitter machine. Gonna be a

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Speaker 1: big weekend. We've got a lot to talk about here, Thor.

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Speaker 1: We've got you know, Max going tonight, which is gonna

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Speaker 1: be done by the time we get here. But we've

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Speaker 1: got Thursday games, We've got Friday games. We've got so

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Speaker 1: many games with over ninety five percent cash in one direction,

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Speaker 1: whether it's spreads or totals. We have huge games this

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Speaker 1: week Tennessee Georgia obviously the biggest one. And then of

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Speaker 1: course at the end we'll go over your favorites of

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Speaker 1: the week here. But how'd your week nine go? I

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Speaker 1: ended up five and five, I got back door on

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Speaker 1: three of my games, really really aggravating. But you know,

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Speaker 1: how was your week ninth? Thor we're in the double

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Speaker 1: digis now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was pretty good. Yeah, we we did all right,

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Speaker 2: And yeah there was another good weekend a college football

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Speaker 2: and now that we got maction back, it's it's just

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Speaker 2: a great time of the year and we got, like

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Speaker 2: you were mentioning, we got a couple of enormous games

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Speaker 2: coming up this weekend, so excited to talk about them.

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Speaker 1: And the playoff rankings dropped on Tuesday as well. Did

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Speaker 1: you have any objections with the playoff rankings or do

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Speaker 1: you not care because it's this early and all this

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Speaker 1: is going to get sorted out, or what do you

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Speaker 1: think about the initial playoff rankings?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a confession to make. I don't really

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Speaker 2: I don't really pay that much. I mean, like you know,

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Speaker 2: you see it, but like I don't watch the show

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Speaker 2: or like I don't pay any attention until like the

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Speaker 2: last week or two because it.

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Speaker 1: Feels like fodder, just like talking points and things.

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Speaker 2: It's just setting up arguments and disagreements where it's it's unnecessary.

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Speaker 2: I guess you know. The good part of it is

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Speaker 2: you have transparency and like the way they see it

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Speaker 2: at the time. But yeah, I just I don't care

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Speaker 2: until until we get near the end. But it was

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Speaker 2: interesting Tennis be a number one.

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Speaker 1: They just have the best resume. I don't know why

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Speaker 1: people with that surprised, Like they lose to Georgia this

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Speaker 1: week and they'll move down in the standings and they

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Speaker 1: won't have the best resume. Like, but right now, you

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Speaker 1: got a big win over Bama, their first win against Bama,

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Speaker 1: what fifteen sixteen years right, and you beat Kentucky and

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Speaker 1: you didn't just beat Kentucky, you stomped Kentucky. You and

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Speaker 1: I were texting about that. You're like, your side one's

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Speaker 1: so big, it screwed your total, which is exactly what

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Speaker 1: happened on that one. So you know, it's Tennessee has

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Speaker 1: the best resume. They should be ranked number one. But

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Speaker 1: you know, unless they beat Georgia, which I don't think

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Speaker 1: many people are predicting right now, then they will not

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Speaker 1: be ranked number one next week. And that's all that matters,

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Speaker 1: is that they get it right at the end, which

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Speaker 1: is you know, questionable as well. It doesn't really matter

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Speaker 1: how many teams that you have going the playoff. You know,

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Speaker 1: if it's four or five, and six are gonna complain,

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Speaker 1: If it's twelve, thirteen and fourteen are going to complain.

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Speaker 1: That's just the way it's gonna go. And we're still

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Speaker 1: gonna have talking points moving forward, even with the playoff

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Speaker 1: expansion coming in a couple of years. But let's get

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Speaker 1: into the Week ten slate here thor we're gonna start

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Speaker 1: with Thursday. We've got two games. UTEP plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half at home versus Rice. Forty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half is a total in that one. Coastal Carolina also

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Speaker 1: getting points at home plus three versus app State sixty

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Speaker 1: four the total in that game. So starting with Thursday,

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Speaker 1: do you have a lean on either one of those games?

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Speaker 2: The Rice UTEP one I looked into a decent amount

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Speaker 2: because my system had Rice minus six point seven in

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Speaker 2: that game. And it you know, I want to talk

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Speaker 2: about the classic bunceback spot after you you just got it.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't that you just got upset by the seventeen point

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Speaker 2: underdog Charlotte at home. It's it's they blew your doors off.

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Speaker 2: But in the handicap, like the on field handicap, every

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Speaker 2: every strength was nullified by a weakness basically on both sides.

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Speaker 2: So I just I couldn't. I couldn't get there, you know,

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Speaker 2: as far as like, yeah, take it taking Rice whatever

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Speaker 2: I think Utah matchup okay, but definitely not good enough

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Speaker 2: for me to trust them either. So I'm staying away

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Speaker 2: from that one. The Apple Lagian State Coastal Carolina game.

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Speaker 2: I do have a lean on that one. I lean

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Speaker 2: Apple Lagien State. My line on that game is Apple

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Speaker 2: Lagron State minus four point eight. Apple Apple Lagen State

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Speaker 2: is the number one team in the entire nation at

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Speaker 2: avoiding havoc, so their offense at suppressing that. They also

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Speaker 2: have a good passing attack, of course, and this is

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Speaker 2: the point I'm getting to. Coastal Carolina has one of

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Speaker 2: the worst secondaries that I've seen all season. They are awful, awful,

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Speaker 2: awful awful, And I know that whatever pass rush Coastal

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Speaker 2: Carolina has is not getting to Chase Bryce, so he

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Speaker 2: is going to get to tee Off on that thing.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that that the three points that that

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Speaker 2: is enough. I I like Apple Lagen State in that one.

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Speaker 1: I kid Friday. We have three games here. Boston College

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Speaker 1: is plus nine and a half at home versus Duke.

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Speaker 1: Forty seven is a total in that way one. I

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Speaker 1: mean Boss College has been miserable, Yukon is laying fifteen

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Speaker 1: and a half because they're hosting you Mass and U

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Speaker 1: Mass is miserable. Forty is the total on that one.

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Speaker 1: And then Washington is a four point home favorite against

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Speaker 1: Oregon State. Fifty four and a half the total in

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Speaker 1: that one. So for the Friday games, you have any

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Speaker 1: good leans there.

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Speaker 2: I love that Jim Morris favorite by fifteen and a

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Speaker 2: half take. We were talking last hour about some of

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Speaker 2: these incredible Year one jobs that are being done way

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Speaker 2: under the radar. Mike McIntyre performing magic with America's team. FIU,

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Speaker 2: you got Clay Helton taking over the triple option team

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Speaker 2: and immediately turning them into a solid I mean you.

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Speaker 1: Said we all expect them to go one and eleven,

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Speaker 1: because when you go from one extreme to the other extreme,

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Speaker 1: it's just like, well, this roster doesn't have anything you want,

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Speaker 1: and he is making it work. They beat James Madison

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Speaker 1: as soon as they were ranked. So yeah, Georgia Southern

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Speaker 1: has been very impressive.

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Speaker 2: Yea, and in the same state as Jeff Collins Man.

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Speaker 2: Jeff Collins must have been really un happy with what

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Speaker 2: Clay hell does do it. He's like, come on, guys,

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Speaker 2: I need I need a Year five. I took over

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Speaker 2: a triple option team.

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Speaker 1: Like what do you want for me? Oh no, no, no.

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Speaker 2: It made it even worse. But we got another one,

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Speaker 2: awesome one there with with Jim Mora Those guys have

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Speaker 2: been All three of those guys have done an absolutely

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Speaker 2: fabulous shop. That one I can't touch because it's a

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Speaker 2: fair line and it's crazy to say that with with Yukon,

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Speaker 2: a team that was another team we thought was gonna

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Speaker 2: win one or two games this year. But my addressive

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Speaker 2: line on the game is Yukon minus fourteen point seven.

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Speaker 2: You can toss them that the extra that the you know,

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Speaker 2: point discrepancy with motivation, Yukon is getting real close to

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Speaker 2: get to you know, to beat a ball team. I

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Speaker 2: mean like and that's obviously what they're playing for whatever

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Speaker 2: U Mass doesn't have much left to play for. I

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Speaker 2: can't touch that because of where the line is. But

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Speaker 2: those will be my thoughts. With the Duke Boston College game,

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Speaker 2: my line on that one is Duke mineus six point one.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't bake in the possibility that Jerkovac will

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Speaker 2: be out and I you know, Jerkovec had gotten knocked

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Speaker 2: out of the last game and it didn't look very good.

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Speaker 2: Neither did Boston College his backup quarterback. And then Jay Flowers.

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Speaker 2: Jay Flowers have gotten nicked up. I don't think that

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Speaker 2: he'll be His status is in question.

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Speaker 1: But you're starting to status should be preparing for the draft.

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Speaker 2: Well, the chatter has already begun. And I hope that

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Speaker 2: any of the players that that you know, they decide

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Speaker 2: to opt out. I hope it's all an immediate announcement.

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Speaker 2: As opposed to some of these injury ones, the surprises

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Speaker 2: that we've gotten in some of these games. I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: expect him to just like, you know, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you don't see him out there. That's like, oh yeah,

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Speaker 2: he apped it up. But that's something to get closer

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Speaker 2: to looking at. And it speaks to the motivation thing.

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Speaker 2: On the Boston College side, the season's already gone, it's

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Speaker 2: away from you. So even though my system showing you know,

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Speaker 2: three and a half points of theoretical line value in

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Speaker 2: Boston College, that can be explained away by the things

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Speaker 2: that I just said, I can't touch that game. And

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Speaker 2: then the other one, the last one was Oregon State

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Speaker 2: and Washington, Washington laying four and a half. That's the

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Speaker 2: one on Friday. I got to lean on II Leen

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Speaker 2: Oregon State in that game. My line on that game

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Speaker 2: is Washington minus three, and I think the Oregon State

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Speaker 2: matches up decently well. In that game, the Oregon State

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Speaker 2: run defense and the Washington pass defense both stink. And

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Speaker 2: the weird part of the game in the matchup is

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Speaker 2: that both offenses want to do the other thing right,

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Speaker 2: but like you know, because like you could tee off

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Speaker 2: on the Oregon State run defense, that's what you want

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Speaker 2: to do. But Washington they throw the ball more on

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Speaker 2: running downs, stand down and almost anyone. Yeah, and the

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Speaker 2: system is just about it's about the past, right like that,

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Speaker 2: that's what they're led by. So they're not going to

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Speaker 2: be just sort of mercilessly nitpicking or you know, nicking

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Speaker 2: Oregon State's defensive weakness. It's not the way they play

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Speaker 2: and vice versa. Right, Like Oregon State wants to establish

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Speaker 2: the run, you know, and then they'll they'll do the

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Speaker 2: play action stuff downfield. That's the way that they play.

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Speaker 2: But the Washington pass defense is an abomination. But but

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Speaker 2: you know, like the Oregon State they're they're strong. They

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Speaker 2: also are are pretty solid on the pass defense. I

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Speaker 2: think they'll be able to slow Pennix enough that to

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Speaker 2: make them viable in this game where you're catching Fournette

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Speaker 2: points on the road. So I do prefer the Beavers

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Speaker 2: in that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I do too. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: great lean, but I would definitely take Oregon State, uh

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Speaker 1: and the points there. Now, let's move over to the

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Speaker 1: cash games, and I had I was texting with Thor

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Speaker 1: earlier in the day and we had to change it

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Speaker 1: up because there are I think there's fewer people betting.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people have lost their role

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Speaker 1: at this point, right, just because that's what happens in

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Speaker 1: the overall betting world. The casuals, the deeper in the

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Speaker 1: season it goes, the more the casuals drop off, right,

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Speaker 1: So we're getting a bigger discrepancy and we're getting more

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Speaker 1: cash laid on one side the other, specifically earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week. It's just a trend that I've noticed for

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Speaker 1: about four or five weeks in a row now, where

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Speaker 1: you know casual betters drop off, you know, we're more

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Speaker 1: sharps around here. So but so what I did was

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Speaker 1: for the spreads and totals was I found the ones

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Speaker 1: that were over ninety five percent, and then we're at

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Speaker 1: least twenty percent off on the tickets. So that's what

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Speaker 1: we have. So there's way more than just these six games.

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Speaker 1: I believe it's six for the spreads and four for

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Speaker 1: the totals. So ten. There's way more than these ten

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Speaker 1: that have ninety five plus cash on one side. I

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Speaker 1: just found the ones with the big differences. So here

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Speaker 1: we go. Let's talk about the spreads first. I'll list

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Speaker 1: them all out. You tell me the ones that you like. Here,

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Speaker 1: Memphis plus three and a half at home versus UCF

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Speaker 1: is getting ninety eight percent cash but only forty five

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Speaker 1: percent tickets. This is Wednesdays. This is all going to change.

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Speaker 1: Utah State minus sixteen and a half at home versus

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Speaker 1: New Mexico ninety five percent but only getting sixty eight

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Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, Washington State minus five at Stanford

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Speaker 1: getting ninety seven percent of the cash, only seventy percent

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Speaker 1: of tickets. Oregon laying thirty one and a half versus

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Speaker 1: Colorado ninety five percent cash sixty three percent tickets. That

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Speaker 1: one I think is easy. It's just because of the

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Speaker 1: giant line. FIU plus twenty one and a half at

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Speaker 1: North Texas. We talked about this on stages a little

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Speaker 1: bit before. For ninety eight percent cash and fifty five

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Speaker 1: percent tickets, and the biggest discrepancy that we have, I

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Speaker 1: mean this one in the Memphis one Fresno State minus

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Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half vers Hawaii ninety nine percent

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Speaker 1: cash in only forty nine percent of the tickets. So

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Speaker 1: which one of these games do you have a good

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Speaker 1: lean on in? I see that Cheshire grin you have there.

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Speaker 1: So these are some interesting games, right Thorp?

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Speaker 2: They are? They are that the Memphis one against you

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Speaker 2: c My my system actually had ucf favored by by

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Speaker 2: more of is like five or something like that. But

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Speaker 2: you have the plumbley status issueo. You know, it's plumbly

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Speaker 2: gonna play whatnot. And then the other thing is Memphis

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Speaker 2: actually matches up decently well in that one. But I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm never betting on Ryan Silverfield again. That was that

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Speaker 2: was a personal rule. Yeah, I made that over a

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Speaker 2: year ago. So it's it's either fade Silverfield or or

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Speaker 2: or you stay away. Definitely not back in Memphis in

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Speaker 2: that one. The the Utah State New Mexico. That that

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Speaker 2: one is kind of interesting to me. So you're saying

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Speaker 2: the money is on Utah State.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the money is on Utah State with ninety five

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Speaker 1: percent laying sixteen and a half, but only sixty eight

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Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. So, I mean, it's still a

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Speaker 1: majority of the tickets on Utah State laying the points,

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Speaker 1: but that discrepancy is so wide. Most of the time

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Speaker 1: you see something like ninety tickets in ninety three percent,

253
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Speaker 1: you know, or nine percent cash ninety three percent tickets.

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Speaker 1: It's not usually this big a gap.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I disagree with all of them. This is a

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Speaker 2: very weird line. I don't know why Utah State is

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Speaker 2: laying nearly seventeen points to any team, even upper tier

258
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Speaker 2: SCS teams. I would I would do that on what

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Speaker 2: is Utah State showed this year. Yeah, and they also

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Speaker 2: have they have their own quarterback issues, Like I'm not

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Speaker 2: really sure what people are seeing in this one. New

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Speaker 2: Mexico can also play defense, and we'll see if like

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Speaker 2: New Mexico's offense, Yes, but they they do the the

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Speaker 2: option thing, which for some teams is a really big problem.

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Speaker 2: And and Utah State does not have a good defense.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, like, if if New Mexico can at

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Speaker 2: least nick them for a little bit of yardage to

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Speaker 2: at least give their defense, uh some rest time, it's

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Speaker 2: not interested. I think Utah or I'm sorry that New

270
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Speaker 2: Mexico can stay within the number. Like I also think

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Speaker 2: they have a shot to win this game out right,

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Speaker 2: So I'm baffled by this this number in this line movement.

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Speaker 2: My line on that game is Utah State minus four

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Speaker 2: point eight, which is bigger than a ten point discrepancy,

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Speaker 2: which I almost never see it. So we'll see. I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm willing to go down on this ship on this one.

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Speaker 2: That's fine. I'll be taking I'll be on New Mexico

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Speaker 2: one way or the other. The Washington State Stanford game,

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Speaker 2: that's a mess of a handicap. I don't want any

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Speaker 2: part of that, that's fair. I looked into that game

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Speaker 2: and I just there's just nothing there for me. And

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Speaker 2: those are two teams too that have been hard for

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Speaker 2: me to put my finger on this year, so that

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Speaker 2: one is an easy pass for me. We talked about

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Speaker 2: the Oregon in Colorado game on the other show. I

286
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Speaker 2: could not lay that many points with Oregon on the

287
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Speaker 2: road heading into altitude against a team that at least

288
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:21,840
Speaker 2: has shown us that they have a pulse since they

289
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Speaker 2: fired their head coach. Colorado is awful, of course, but

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Speaker 2: they're at least giving effort. And for for Oregon, just

291
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Speaker 2: waltz in there and and blow them out by bigger

292
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Speaker 2: than this number. Not only would Oregon have to give effort,

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Speaker 2: you sort of have to do it hope that Colorado

294
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Speaker 2: doesn't as well. I'm not sure you're going to get that.

295
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Speaker 2: I definitely can't lay that. I also can't trust Colorado

296
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Speaker 2: at home, but I'm not laying that many points with

297
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Speaker 2: Oregon there. What was the next one?

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Speaker 1: The next one was FIU plus the twenty one and

299
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Speaker 1: a half at North Texas America eight minus twenty seven

300
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 1: and a half vers Hawaii. Those are the last two there.

301
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would love to back America's team FIU in

302
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 2: this game. But North Texa has been really good this year.

303
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Speaker 2: They they've sort of been eye opening good. If if

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Speaker 2: North Texas shows up and goes one hundred percent and

305
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 2: we get, we get you know their sort of a efforts. Yeah,

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00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 2: they're gonna cover this game. And and what Bogwin and

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Speaker 2: I were talking about last last hour was, you know,

308
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Speaker 2: I just as a thought experiment, you know, like, you know,

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Speaker 2: going back to the time that America's team played, can

310
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Speaker 2: I just call.

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Speaker 1: Him America's team and not like I have control over you,

312
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Speaker 1: You're just doing it anyway.

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Speaker 2: So America's team goes and plays UTSA and and they

314
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Speaker 2: you know, there was the whatever it was, thirty three

315
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,880
Speaker 2: points spread or whatever, and UTSA went into that game

316
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Speaker 2: and played an extremely vanilla game on offense. They were

317
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 2: not running tempo as fast as they usually do, and

318
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Speaker 2: their players appeared to have their minds on others. They

319
00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 2: still won by twenty, of course, but they were they

320
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,639
Speaker 2: were never really a threat to cover the number that

321
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 2: they had been given because UTSA, I mean, they knew

322
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Speaker 2: they were gonna beat them either way, right, and so

323
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Speaker 2: like why do we give our.

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Speaker 1: I mean they were literally playing a defensive lineman at

325
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Speaker 1: left tackle for his first offensive line start ever in

326
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Speaker 1: that game. Yeah, I remember that because I bet on

327
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Speaker 1: UTSA because I had already bet on wk you to

328
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 1: crush FYU and that worked out so well, and I

329
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:31,680
Speaker 1: thought you maybe a little bit better, but uh nothing.

330
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Speaker 2: That And and that goes to my point is like,

331
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Speaker 2: do we get a w k U effort out of

332
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Speaker 2: unt in this game? And maybe there's a better shot

333
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Speaker 2: of that because FIU is now four and four, and you.

334
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Speaker 1: Will also they need one more win to get to

335
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 1: qualify for a Bowl, right, and there you go, Yeah,

336
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Speaker 1: you know they play UAB next week. They you know,

337
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,480
Speaker 1: North Texas played Week zero, so they're already five and four.

338
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 1: They've already played nine games, so uh you they played

339
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 1: UAB next week on the road, and like you said

340
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 1: of Hopkins is back, we don't expect you and un

341
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,879
Speaker 1: T to win that game. We would be taking UAB.

342
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:09,919
Speaker 1: The last game is Rice, and look that's a coin flip, right, Like,

343
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: I think un T should win, right, but that's because

344
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 1: they're at home. But that's way more coin flippy than

345
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,480
Speaker 1: it has been in the past with Rice. So you

346
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 1: would think they will give maximum effort in this game

347
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 1: just to solidify that bull spot, right.

348
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and you would You certainly can't project that

349
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,640
Speaker 2: they won't, which right right, like is when you would

350
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 2: you would for sure take the points. My line on

351
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,240
Speaker 2: this game is very close to what the line out

352
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 2: there is. I got North Texas minus nineteen point two,

353
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 2: so it's not a big enough discrepancy for me either way.

354
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,160
Speaker 2: And with the motivation, I'm just staying away from that one.

355
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:52,439
Speaker 2: And then the uh, the Fresno State Hawaii game. I

356
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,119
Speaker 2: think a lot of that money coming in is you

357
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 2: got Hayn back now and Haner you know he went

358
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,960
Speaker 2: on last week and still knocking off some of the

359
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 2: rusty they really scuffled against seeing I thought San Diego

360
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 2: State was going to win that game for a long

361
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 2: portion of it, and Hayter ended up throwing a couple

362
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 2: of interceptions. They Fresno State had some real trouble with

363
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,919
Speaker 2: the dual threat quarter I was about to call him

364
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 2: a dual threat safety because that's what the position he

365
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 2: came from and made. San Diego State, who had struggled

366
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 2: to fight at quarterback for years, ran into one by

367
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 2: grabbing a transfer from Bissipy State that they intended to

368
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 2: play at safety through sheer luck on a couple of

369
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 2: different levels. But you know, that's what happened there. But

370
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,880
Speaker 2: Hawaii has been playing better now, so like they're going

371
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 2: to You're gonna at least get effort out of them,

372
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 2: because one of the things you were you were wondering

373
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Speaker 2: about earlier in the year is it looks so awful

374
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 2: coming out and it's like, well, are they also going

375
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,199
Speaker 2: to give up on this season? But they haven't. They

376
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 2: figured out a couple of things and the effort is

377
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 2: still there. But that's not a game that I have

378
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 2: any interest in betting on my line on it is

379
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,479
Speaker 2: uh Fresno State is twenty five point four. For me,

380
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 2: it would have to be Hawaii or past but I'm

381
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 2: not going to trust Hawaii and not spot with a

382
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 2: in er back.

383
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 1: All right, So four totals that meet the same criteria,

384
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 1: and these are way more extreme. At least one of

385
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 1: them is Missouri first Kentucky under ninety nine percent cash

386
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the tickets. This is the big one.

387
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech versus Georgia Tech under forty and a half

388
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 1: is getting ninety seven percent of the cash, but eighty

389
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets are on the over in

390
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 1: this game because of this low total. So that is

391
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: the biggest discrepancy of anything that we've had all season,

392
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 1: is Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech under forty and a half.

393
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 1: Like I said, ninety seven percent tickets or cash fourteen

394
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 1: percent tickets. That is just extreme. Louisiana Tech versus Middle

395
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,880
Speaker 1: Tennessee under sixty three and a half is ninety five

396
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 1: percent cash sixty seven percent tickets. In Boise State vers

397
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: BYU under fifty four and a half six cash fifty

398
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 1: one percent tickets, So bigger discrepancies here, specifically with that

399
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 1: bow Tech Georgia Tech game. So do you have a

400
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: good lean in any of these games? Once again? All

401
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 1: going under? I think unders have just been a trend

402
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 1: in the NFL and college football recently, so they're getting

403
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 1: bet on way harder over like the last two to

404
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 1: three weeks, I feel like, So, thoughts on any of

405
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: these four games?

406
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, the both the Missouri and Kentucky and Boise State

407
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: by U. My my total is pretty close to to

408
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 2: what the Vegas one is, so I wouldn't be interested

409
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 2: in though. Is that the one thing you brought up

410
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 2: that I I have a ticket on? It might make

411
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 2: my column? Is I I was looking pretty heavily into

412
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 2: that Virginia Tech Jordan Tech one. That's uh, both both

413
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: of both those offense are real, real bad, and Virginia

414
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: Tech can at least play a little bit of defense

415
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: the this Do you know the status of Jeff Simms

416
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 2: right now?

417
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:09,880
Speaker 1: No idea.

418
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: Okay, if Jeff Sims doesn't play, I believe that we're

419
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: going to see that Jeordia Tech true freshman quarterback three again,

420
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 2: because I don't know what the hell happened to Zach

421
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 2: Gibson last year. He had attended to nothing td I,

422
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: t ratio to Akron like you know, complete like sixty

423
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: five of his passes and all this, and he has

424
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 2: been arguably the worst FBS quarterback any school when he

425
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 2: has been on the field this year, and they had

426
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: to yank him in the last one. So I think

427
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: it's gonna be the true freshman for them? Is that

428
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 2: Byron Pyn That's right?

429
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I Kelly Kelly Quinlan says he tweeted this out yesterday.

430
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 1: Jeff Simms is full speed this week, per Key will

431
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: will be Sims, will be Sims or Zach Pyron on Saturday.

432
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, so yeah.

433
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 1: Like you said, it's gonna be one of those two

434
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: for sure.

435
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: It's crazy that a guy that tend to nothing, td

436
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 2: I and t ratio in the NBS last year is

437
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 2: unplayable at Georgia Tech. But here we are the So

438
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 2: that is the one of these that I would consider.

439
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 2: As you know, Bachmann, I don't trust anything coaches say

440
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 2: about the injury stuff unless it's like one thousand percent,

441
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 2: you know, where they can get caught if they if

442
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 2: it goes the other way. The other stuff, I don't,

443
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 2: you know, we'll see so you know, SIMS or Pirate,

444
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: but the under is the look for me on that game.

445
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 2: My my system's total on that was I think thirty

446
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 2: seven and a half something like that, so it was, yeah,

447
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half, so it was already under

448
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: what that the total was. And when you start to

449
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: go through the handicap of like you know, the one

450
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: run game against the other run defense, but you know whatever,

451
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 2: it starts to get really hard to see where the

452
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: yards are gonna come for about either side, especially Pirates

453
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: plague at least SIMS is plague. Jordia Tech hatt tried

454
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 2: to dick that a little bit with him running out

455
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 2: of the pocket and you're gonna get a few more

456
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: completions whatever, But like I don't know, Virginia Tech defense

457
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 2: definitely has the advantage over Jordia Tech's offense and Virginia

458
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,719
Speaker 2: Tech offense doesn't really move the ball on anybody. So

459
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 2: I the under would be the the angle for me

460
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 2: on that and then the other one. The the other

461
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: one was did.

462
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: You say Tech in Middle Tennessee?

463
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: Well, who are people on in that one?

464
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: On the under? And sixty seven percent are on the

465
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: the under as well, So it's just a big yeah,

466
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: everything's under.

467
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so my interesting So my system has the over

468
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: under at sixty eight and a half, but there are

469
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 2: some I look into the Sandy Cap of bet and

470
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: because it was also a weird line on the side

471
00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: of this game where it was where with Middle like

472
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 2: where they you know, being favored on the road like that.

473
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 2: I and I've been handicapping Middle Tennessee games pretty hard

474
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 2: this year because they're such a matchup specific team. But

475
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 2: Luisiana Tech doesn't fall into one of the buckets where

476
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: you can either easily bet on mt issue or fade them,

477
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 2: So like I had a hard time with that. And

478
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 2: then also I don't think Mtssue's offense is going to

479
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: be quite clicking the way like it has in some

480
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: of these other games where they've outperformed expectation. So you know,

481
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: like I my system sort of likes the over, but

482
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 2: I definitely would not bet the over in that one.

483
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: I can't get to the under either, but that's right

484
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: beyond that one.

485
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to the big five games

486
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: of the week as picked by yours truly here, and

487
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: we're gonna start out. Let's just go, let's go big.

488
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 1: Let's start out with the biggest one here, number three

489
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: Georgia eight and a half point home favorites against number

490
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: one Tennessee. The total is sixty six. How do you

491
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: see this game play out?

492
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 2: Thor Mileen would be to Tennessee on the line. Though

493
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 2: there's not a ton of excess value. You're gonna be

494
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: able to find better value in other games. But I

495
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 2: know people are gonna want to bet this one because

496
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: it's such a big one.

497
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: Gonna watch it.

498
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, Like I think the fair line in this

499
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 2: game it would be Georgia minus seven, and so I

500
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 2: think you can absolutely argue that there is a point

501
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 2: of line value on Tennessee. But like what percentage of

502
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 2: the games will that going from seven to eight ever

503
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: come into plays?

504
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 1: Would you rather like buy the alternative line and do

505
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 1: Georgia buy a touchdown or bet Tennessee.

506
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 2: Say that one more time?

507
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 1: Would you rather like buy an alternate an alternate line

508
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: of like Georgia minus seven or wait to see if

509
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: it drops because people might be betting Tennessee. I haven't

510
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: seen the cash in this game. Or would you rather

511
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: bet Tennessee plus the eight and a half?

512
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,479
Speaker 2: Well, I wouldn't. I would not give up more of

513
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: I think I understand what you're saying.

514
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: I would juice. Yeah, you know, I don't want to

515
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: give up the juice.

516
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 2: Yeah I'm not. I'm not laying minus whatever it be,

517
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: what one seventy or whatever like on Georgia to like

518
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: buy that down to seven, because that that's where I

519
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: think the objectively fair line is. So I like, if

520
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: it was Georgia minus seven in my opinion should be

521
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: minus one ten, right, So I would I would never.

522
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be able to do that, you know, Tennessee.

523
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: That would be my lean in this game. They've they've

524
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 2: overcome obviously the you know, everything that's been put in

525
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 2: front of them. The other thing is they you know,

526
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: you have to sort of toss up the situational spot

527
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 2: with them because they've overcome so many of those. But

528
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: the other thing is the health thing is in Tennessee's

529
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: favor here. They got back Cedric Tillman last week. They

530
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 2: brought back that safety that had been arrested and you know,

531
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 2: they suspended him for one game. Mccaullay, I think the

532
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 2: name he's back as well. And on the Georgia side,

533
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: they they're pass Rusher was just ruled out for the

534
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 2: entire season and a first round prospect. And then in

535
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 2: addition to that, Jalen Carter, who was not only a

536
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 2: first round prospect, people were talking about him as a

537
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: potential top five overall pick.

538
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 1: It might be a future stealer right there, I would

539
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: not might be.

540
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: It's been it's been tough for him all season. He

541
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: has been battling this nagging injury. They tried to play

542
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 2: him throw it situationally off the bench, then they withheld

543
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 2: him from multiple games. He's the defensive version of Jackson

544
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: Smith and Jake but is what it is. He did

545
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: play the limited snaps in the last game. He does

546
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: not appear to be anywhere close two hundred percent, So

547
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: it looks like they're gonna try to play him situationally

548
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: again in this game. But the whole upshot being is

549
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: Georgia's two biggest studs in the front seven. One of

550
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 2: them is done for the season and the other one

551
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: is you know, it's like a sixty percent discount on

552
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: that guy. And he also only plays, you know, forty

553
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 2: percent of the snaps, like if he can in a

554
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: given game or whatever, and is a threat at any

555
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 2: point to get Young out of the game with another

556
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 2: aggravation of that injury. So you the the front seven

557
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: up there is has taken a shot that is going

558
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 2: to at least allow Hendon Hooker to have more time

559
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 2: in the pocket. The pass rush for Georgia is not

560
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 2: going to be as good, and I also think I mean,

561
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: but the rest of the Georgia defense obviously is nasty,

562
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: so that the interesting thing is going to be Hooker

563
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 2: are having having, you know, more time than you would anticipate,

564
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: both these teams being at one hundred percent getting Tillman back,

565
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: but going against the Georgia secondary, that's gonna be really

566
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: interesting from like the NFL draft evaluation perspective. On the

567
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 2: other side, the thing that Georgia wants to do on offense,

568
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: of course, is establish the run. You're going right into

569
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,719
Speaker 2: the strength of Tennessee defense. That's they're good at that.

570
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 2: They can shut down your run game.

571
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: I wonder if they're if they're good at that because

572
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: they're good at that, or if they're good at that

573
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: because they get a big lead on everyone.

574
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: I can answer that they're good at that and their

575
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 2: front is good because the pass rush is there is

576
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 2: well and you saw that last game with Leaves leave

577
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: us was what was this?

578
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 3: What was the same Darret hugg quote you see a

579
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: ghosts everywhere? Yeah yeah, Like, oh boy, they were in

580
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 3: Leavas's head real early. Tennessee's defensive weakness it's in the secondary, right,

581
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 3: And so this is the big mistake that I made,

582
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: was like, oh, you know, will leave us. It's it's

583
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 3: his big NFL draft opportunity, and he's gonna get to

584
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 3: tee off on on this bad secondary. I wasn't anticipating

585
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: how well or how effective Tennessee's pass rush would be

586
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: against Kentucky's offensive line, and also how much Leavis's game

587
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 3: would decline in the face of that, not only on plays.

588
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 2: Where it got there, also on some plays where it did.

589
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: That's probably something that's gonna be talked about Darrek Leavis'

590
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: evaluation as well. In this one. It's it's gonna be

591
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: interesting too, because Tennessee is going to be able to

592
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,239
Speaker 2: slow Georgia's running game to a certain point. Right, But

593
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 2: this is a good matchup for Stats and Bennett if

594
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 2: Georgia's offensive line can hold up and give him the time, right,

595
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 2: Because if you get time back there in Tennessee secondary,

596
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 2: especially with the weapons at Benna has Like Tennessee don't

597
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: have anyone to cover Bowers even in addition all the

598
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: stuff that I said, But like that's advantage them. Can

599
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: Tennessee's pass rush get there and certainly Bennett will be

600
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,239
Speaker 2: able to move around a little bit. But that's what

601
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: we thought about Leavis too, right, Like they can get there,

602
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 2: just in terms of the overall matchup, the health situation

603
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: aboth these teams. My increasing confidence in Tennessee after they

604
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: literally overcome everything I would have to take to a

605
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: points as a lean. But again I want to stress

606
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: the point that there's not the amount of theoretical value

607
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 2: in this game, unmaligned either way, that there is on

608
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: a lot of other games out there.

609
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand that by the way, just looking through

610
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: it here that it would be minus one thirty for

611
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: Georgia minus seven, so not as much not as much

612
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: juice as we thought. But still I understand that I

613
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: kind of like to play the lines that we're given

614
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: number four Clemson three and a half point road favorites

615
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: at Notre Dame. This tolls forty four on that game,

616
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: or where are you going there?

617
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: Market seems to be telling us something on this game too,

618
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 2: seems seems like some heavy hitters in the market really

619
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 2: like Notre Dame. Uh, it's it's going to take some

620
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 2: real cohones to bet on Notre Dame. And in this

621
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: game it gets Clemson.

622
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 1: But I mean, it doesn't matter what I do with

623
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. I lose. If I pick them, I lose.

624
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: If I pick against them, I lose. So I just

625
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 1: I have written Notre Dame out of my betting narrative.

626
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: I just won't do it anymore.

627
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: If you haven't lost money on Notre Dame this year,

628
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: you don't sports gamebo is.

629
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent of you at least don't bet

630
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: on college.

631
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: So that's exactly Yeah. The and and interestingly, and a

632
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: part of this was the market data that that we

633
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: were getting in which again is indicating that some heavy

634
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: hitters in the marketplace like Notre Dame. In this game,

635
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 2: my line on this game dropped all the way to

636
00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 2: I only have Clemson is a favorite in this game

637
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 2: by zero point one point, so basically pick them. Yeah,

638
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: my line is dropped to Clemson.

639
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: Of course, you put a massive amount of money on

640
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: Notre Dame, then, right, I mean, you.

641
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: Know, I can't bet on Clemson. I can't based on

642
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 2: the stuff that I got, the data that I got,

643
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 2: I cannot bet on Clemson here. For me, it would

644
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 2: be Notre Dame or pass. And I would totally understand

645
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 2: someone who says I cannot bet on Notre Dame in

646
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: this spot, because it's gonna take some courage to do so.

647
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 2: But for me it would be that side or nothing.

648
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: You need the stones, you have the stones? Are you

649
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: betting on Notre Dame? I was being sarcastic. Are you

650
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: doing it?

651
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: I will have a ticket on Notre Dame.

652
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 1: Oh look at that. We're going after it. Let's get it.

653
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 2: And they have not been crossed off my column list yet.

654
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: I don't finalize that until till late on Wednesday night.

655
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 2: And at this point usually on Wednesdays, I'm down to

656
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 2: like eighteen to get into the ten slots that one

657
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: is on on you know, in my thing, just again

658
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: because of the compelling data that that I have on

659
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: Notre Dame in this one. But I am just as

660
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 2: afraid as anybody. Like It's not like my feelings are

661
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: different than anybody else, right, It's just like sometimes the

662
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 2: date is like you know, bro, you you sort of

663
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 2: have to give up your some of these times where

664
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: you've watched out to day but you just been like,

665
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 2: I've never bet I got this Steve again, So.

666
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: Every time I bet them right, Yeah.

667
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 2: I'm trying to sort of, you know, release that and

668
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 2: just sort of objectively look at the thing. It is hard,

669
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 2: especially you know with with Clemson. They they earlier in

670
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: the season. I had more doubt. You know, I guess

671
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: on defense that the defensive played better. The quarterback thing

672
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 2: is going to be interesting, obviously, DJ he is going

673
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 2: to start in this one, but we know that.

674
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 1: I mean, he could not be the Clemson starter ever

675
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: again midway through this game. Uh, and that would not

676
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,439
Speaker 1: be show. That's why you can't be Clemson. But I'm

677
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: telling you every time I picked Notre Dame, I'm wrong.

678
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 1: So just for everyone's sake, I will not bet one

679
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 1: way or the other. So you're all welcome. I won't

680
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: do it. Listen to Thor. Like Thor said, Notre Dame

681
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: er stay away, and I am one hundred percent with you,

682
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: just for the sheer factor of the quarterback mess that's

683
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 1: in Clemson. Not even like you know my history with

684
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: Blah blah blah whatever. That's all goofy, But yeah, I

685
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: mean there's just could be major changes made it at

686
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: number Clemson and their number four, so it all looks

687
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: that's why they're getting the favor but they're on the

688
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: road quarterback issues. No thanks, I'm absolutely with you. How

689
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 1: about number six Alabama giving thirteen and a half points

690
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: on the road against number ten LSU according to the

691
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: CFP here, which is interesting, fifty six and a half

692
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: is the total there. Another enormous game this weekend. Thor

693
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: didn't think it was going to have this much with

694
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 1: it because LSU was ugly to start the year. They've

695
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 1: kind of seemingly figured it out here, so where are

696
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: we going in this game?

697
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 2: They really have kind of figured it out, right, they

698
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: they're just sort of a sunding and sunning and sunning. Uh,

699
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: certainly gotten better. And you know, I made this point

700
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,760
Speaker 2: a few times this year, but like that that Florida

701
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 2: State LSU game, it's six and everyone's had more than

702
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 2: any other game this season just because of when it

703
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:18,320
Speaker 2: was played, you know, on that Monday night and the

704
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 2: like literally everybody is watching because there wasn't football on,

705
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 2: But like LSU actually did I'll play Florida State in

706
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: that game, and they, you know, lost a little bit

707
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: less than a coin flip or whatever. But since then, they've,

708
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 2: like I said, gotten better and better and better. Daniels

709
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: has looked awesome in in recent weeks where he's come

710
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: back from the dead of a guy that I didn't

711
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 2: think had any shot to play in the NFL after

712
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: watching him last year, where now he's going to be

713
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 2: considered again. In credit to Brian Kelly for for all

714
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: that stuff. You got a night game here in Baton

715
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 2: Rouge on a Saturday night. I'm sniffing on the I'm

716
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 2: snipping on the home dog here. I'm gonna take the

717
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 2: points with with L s U again, they've been playing

718
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: well recently. There's the the chinks in the armor with

719
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 2: Alabama that we have seen recently as well. Both teams

720
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 2: come in off of a buye. I actually think that

721
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: benefits all of you more than Alabama or I'm sorry, yeah,

722
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: that that it benefits Uh. I look back at the

723
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 2: schedule and then I thought I thought I was wrong.

724
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 2: It's like, no, actually, I'm not.

725
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 1: Second guessing yourself.

726
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I was going off memory with this statement.

727
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:27,760
Speaker 2: But then I look back and that I thought that

728
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 2: that that what there was an opponent one of this lot.

729
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 2: So anyways, sorry about that, but I think it benefits

730
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 2: LSU more than than it does Alabama because, uh, Alabama

731
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 2: is such a They're one of those teams that we

732
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: talk about where like there's specific parts of their team

733
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 2: that that are just absolutely elite and you you just

734
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: you know, you can't contain it. You just hope that

735
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 2: you can, uh, you know, hold it down like a

736
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 2: little bit or deal with it enough where it's not

737
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 2: going to run you over. But there's other parts on

738
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 2: that team where now they've become you don't want to

739
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 2: say weaknesses, guys, you know it's Alabama doesn't really have

740
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 2: true weaknesses, but we're like you can actually legitimately attack

741
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: them where they are absolutely mortal at some of these spots.

742
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: The offensive line is way down on Alabama. The receiving

743
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: core is shockingly down. With the receiver play that we've.

744
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: Made, you might be able to just call it bad.

745
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 1: You know, it has not been good for them. I'll

746
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: say it.

747
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 2: Actually stunning statement any other time, but you you're not wrong.

748
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 1: It's neutral like and at least for what we've seen

749
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: from Bama. It's bad. You know, maybe not comparatively across

750
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: the rest of the country, it's bad, but for what

751
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 1: we're used to from Alabama, Yeah, bad.

752
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 2: We're used to to seeing these like the perimeter on

753
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 2: both sides, right, like the receivers in the cornerback were

754
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 2: used to see.

755
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: You know, they're all getting they're all getting drafted. I

756
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 1: mean one the Heisman a couple of years ago.

757
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: Well, I mean like yeah, but like you know, every

758
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 2: year there were certain guys in the NFL that they'd

759
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 2: still be awesome the next year. This this is the

760
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 2: year where finally people are waiting for it to finally

761
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: drop off it and it has at both the wide

762
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 2: receiver and the cornerback position, and then also the offensive line,

763
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: which is also just like was was you know an

764
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 2: NFL turnstyle or not turnstyle NFL conveyor belts one to

765
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 2: turnstile is a negative connotation on offensive.

766
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: Line, Yeah exactly, Yeah, that's right.

767
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, all three of those spots are down this year.

768
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: And you know LSU is I think has the advantage

769
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 2: up front against Bama. L s U's wide receivers one

770
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: million percent have the advantage over Alabama's cornerbacks. It's gonna

771
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 2: come down to Daniels. Daniels obviously is led by the

772
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,319
Speaker 2: foot of his dual threat ability, but you also have

773
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 2: to delineate extra defensive resources to deal with that, which

774
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 2: tends you out on the back side. Can he hit

775
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 2: the guys who are going to be running open downfield

776
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 2: or even short right like and and he has passed

777
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: better in recent weeks, But like Lsu has a legitimately

778
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 2: good receiving core going up against this this down and

779
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 2: also inexperienced Alabama secondary that stuff, plus again the spot

780
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 2: being at home night game. Baton rouge getting all the

781
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: points that you're getting with an Alabama team that is

782
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 2: definitely not as good as it has been the last

783
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 2: couple of years. And I'll take in l on this one.

784
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 2: I thought this Alabama team could be one of the

785
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: better teams like in the last like twenty years. They

786
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 2: have not been because of the depreciation at those positions. Right,

787
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 2: Like Gibbs has absolutely offered them a ton. Bryce Young

788
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: has been everything.

789
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, but everything else everything else, man, you know average

790
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 1: for the SEC. I guess we would say the line

791
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 1: and the wide receivers and you know not they still

792
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: get pressure linebacking course stills okay, but but the secondary

793
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 1: has been rough too well.

794
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,760
Speaker 2: Also have like all the penalties, it's been weird.

795
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 1: Seventeen against Tennessee. They were down to three last week,

796
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: so you know, you think, okay, but so are they They

797
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 1: was going to get these guys under control.

798
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, the fifteen or something they're not.

799
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:00,439
Speaker 1: Theyre for a period. They were dead last So I will,

800
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: I will look real quick and see where they're at.

801
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: Let me just take a look right here. They are

802
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: one hundred and twentieth, so they've moved up eleven spots

803
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 1: thirty one to disciplinement that they shown. But still it's

804
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 1: sixty nine penalties so far this year and thirty two

805
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 1: of them or excuse me, thirty three of them were

806
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: against Tennessee and Texas because it was sixteen against Texas,

807
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:33,280
Speaker 1: seventeen against Tennessee. So this is a big game again.

808
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: So are we going to see undisciplined football from Alabama?

809
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: Which is a big question. And this is Bama's still

810
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: a top you know, probably the best team in the

811
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,919
Speaker 1: country in terms of talent. Georgia right there as well.

812
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are say Texas has

813
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 1: a lot of talent. They never performed like it, but

814
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: you know, uh, this is the most beatable Alabama team

815
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: we've seen in years and years.

816
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 2: One is they're walking into one of the hardest Like

817
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 2: like it's it's become cliche of how hard it is

818
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 2: to play in baton roushant Saturday nights. That's how hard

819
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: it is. It's like it's you know, but it is right, Like, yes,

820
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 2: it's a legitimate thing. This is going to be a

821
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 2: very very difficult environment again, especially with these positions like

822
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 2: the Alabama offensive line and the penalty thing, and now

823
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 2: you're in this f and hornets nest where you're not

824
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 2: going able to hear anything. I mean, we'll see how

825
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: that goes, the inexperience in the cornerback room, everything like that.

826
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 2: I have to take the points here. I don't have

827
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 2: another choice. You definitely cannot lay them with Alabama.

828
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: What about the total? Do you like anything on the total?

829
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,479
Speaker 1: Because I'm kind of feeling the under if we think,

830
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: you know, LSU's gonna bring the heat. Uh, They're going

831
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: to be playing in front of a raucous crowd on

832
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: Saturday night against an undisciplined Bama team. I'm kind of

833
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 1: feeling the under a little bit. Where are you on

834
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: the total?

835
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 2: My system has fifty six and a half, which is

836
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 2: what exactly the number, So it's fallen recently. Yeah, I

837
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 2: mean I look bad earlier today.

838
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: I will double check the Betting Pros line here, but

839
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: before I.

840
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 2: Look for that, because I agree with that movement.

841
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 1: It is fifty six and a half everywhere. Oh wow,

842
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 1: okay all the places now, yeah.

843
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 2: They finally all got to the correct number.

844
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: My number is yeah, your number one?

845
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, but yeah, and he.

846
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: Just opened up Betting Pros and went thor says fifty

847
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: sixth and a half. We're gonna do that, why don't they?

848
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, like with it, Like I think I'd

849
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 2: still shade it under for sure, and like your leane

850
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 2: would be my leane in that one as well, even

851
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 2: you know, with with the hitting there, because yeah, I

852
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: do think that the LSU defense can address some of

853
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: the things BAMA wants to do again to the some

854
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 2: of these weekness that we're talking about on the Alabama

855
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 2: side and then on the LSU side. You would have

856
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 2: to imagine that the biggest thing that Brian Kelly wants

857
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: to do in this game for his offense is stay

858
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: on schedule. It's not like, oh, you know, we got

859
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 2: to hunt for these you know, four long plays that

860
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 2: we can get, YadA YadA. No, he just wants to

861
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 2: stay on schedule the whole time because you know, not

862
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: only then are you advancing the ball up the field,

863
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 2: moving to change whatever, but he's going to want to

864
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 2: give his defense rests against the wide open Bryce Young offense.

865
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 2: You want to keep them down there a little bit.

866
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 2: So I think you're going to see LSU meandering back

867
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 2: to the line a little bit more after these runs.

868
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 2: And obviously you know they have the backfield rotation at LSU,

869
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 2: but Daniels runs the ball so much, even on passing

870
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 2: plays when he scrambles, he's around double the rushing attempts

871
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 2: of the number two guy on LSU. But like so

872
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: many of those short throws, and then of course the

873
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 2: runs that they all end on a running clock. So

874
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 2: I think I would lean the same way with you

875
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 2: on that.

876
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:45,359
Speaker 1: All right, So we're running a little long, so we'll

877
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: power through these last two games and then get to

878
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: just a player two that you want to give us store.

879
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,919
Speaker 1: So the last two that I listed here Texas by

880
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 1: two and a half over number thirteen Kansas State in

881
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 1: Kansas State fifty four and a half half is total

882
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 1: and NC State giving four and a half number twenty

883
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 1: two to number twenty one. Wake four is at NC State,

884
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 1: fifty four is a totll there. Do you have a

885
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: lean in either one of those games?

886
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,760
Speaker 2: My leaning in Texas Kansas State would be on Kansas State.

887
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if it'll be a play for me though,

888
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 2: because that line has gotten to exactly it's another one

889
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 2: where it's gotten right around with My line is my

890
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 2: line on that game is Texas minus two point three.

891
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 2: It's down to two point five. If it was still

892
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 2: you know, Texas favor by four and a half or whatever,

893
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 2: like or over a field or even at three, I

894
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 2: would be more app to take Kansas State. But like

895
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 2: where it's gotten now, it's literally the coin flip, so

896
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 2: the value has just sort of evaporated from you there.

897
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: But I like me just personally the game just straight up,

898
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 2: I would ever so slightly lean towards Kansas State winning

899
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 2: it because I think they can do things that can

900
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 2: give Kansas or I'm sorry the kids, they can do

901
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 2: things that can give Texas trouble here. They slow the

902
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,359
Speaker 2: game down. They play sound defense, they tackle you even

903
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 2: when you're in space. It's very uh gap of sign

904
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 2: no sound yes, sound everything tackling sound gap of I'm

905
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 2: you know, you don't catch them out of place, and

906
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 2: you don't catch them attempting arm tackles, and that all

907
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 2: of a sudden, now the guy's got eighty yards to

908
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 2: gallop downfield. They're going to make you work for every

909
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,800
Speaker 2: inch of it. I think that's going to frustrate Texas.

910
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 2: And you have that, you do have some of the

911
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 2: health things still in the kansastates. Are we going to

912
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 2: see Adrian Martinez going to be Will Howard again? That

913
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 2: part of it, though, I don't care as much as

914
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: some other people, because I think Will Howard at this

915
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: point is proven that he's maybe not a one to

916
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 2: one with Martinez, but it's a very small drop off.

917
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 2: So I you know, as far as that goes, I

918
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 2: wouldn't let that inform anything of the handicap. But like

919
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 2: I said, with where my line is, you're you're not

920
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 2: getting much value. The over under as well in that

921
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 2: game is forty or fifty four and a half. My

922
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 2: one is fifty two and a half. So so I'm

923
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 2: pretty close on that one as well. The North Carolina

924
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 2: State Wake Forest game. For me, that would be Wake

925
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 2: Forest or nothing. But it's sort of hard to sort

926
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 2: of hard to bet at Wake Forest after you.

927
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 1: Watch that in the last one, and Morris looked pretty

928
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 1: good for NC State.

929
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 2: Yes, And that's a great point, yeah, because you know,

930
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 2: initially NC State, you know, after Leary went down, it

931
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 2: was like, oh, you know, we have this this veteran

932
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,800
Speaker 2: uh uh noodle arm scrambler, this Jack Chambers kid, and

933
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 2: that's who they put it initially, and he's just so limited.

934
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 2: You know, he had started in the FCS before, but

935
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 2: it just was not going to translate in the in

936
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 2: the FBS. Going to Morris was the correct decision, by

937
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 2: the way, which is also what A and M should

938
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 2: do with Weigman. He is very clearly the best quarterback

939
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:43,879
Speaker 2: on the roster now, so it's like just go with him.

940
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:46,799
Speaker 2: And NC State did that, and they're gonna be better

941
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,919
Speaker 2: off for that. But you have an inexperienced quarterback here,

942
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 2: you know, and and and Wake Forest defense isn't good,

943
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,439
Speaker 2: but you're gonna get into the scenario where you would

944
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 2: assume and unless we get third quarter Sam Hartman from

945
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 2: the last game. That way first will do what they

946
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 2: always do. We should put up points and and that

947
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 2: if nothing else, NC State it's gonna get out of

948
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 2: their comfort zone with this young quarterback and having to

949
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: try to keep up with them. But it's it's tough

950
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 2: because I don't see a ton of line value either

951
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 2: on either side of this thing. So I I and

952
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 2: and then what we saw was wake last week. It's

953
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 2: it's hard for me to just sort of bank on

954
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 2: then having the bounce back performance above what I view

955
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:24,800
Speaker 2: as a dearth of line value on either side. I

956
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 2: gotta pass on that one.

957
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes total sense, all right? Thor before we leave,

958
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: give us a couple that that you like, Well, give

959
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 1: us one that you're really feeling this week.

960
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 2: I'd see. I'm trying to think of of ones that

961
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 2: we have not talked about on this one. Do we

962
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 2: do we talk about Appalachian stated?

963
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: We did?

964
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was early, that was the early one. Do

965
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: we we didn't talk about A and M Florida? Do

966
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 2: we we didn't know? Okay? Yeah, I I do lean

967
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 2: A and M. In that game, you're at home, you

968
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 2: got the home field advantage, and Florida's defense is awful.

969
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 2: And you know, with A and M you're always concerned

970
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 2: because they're so low on offensive playmakers. It's like an

971
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 2: Isa Smith that you're running out of Dab's from there.

972
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:15,320
Speaker 2: But like, but in this game, A nice even like

973
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 2: you know, some of these other opponents have just been

974
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 2: able to gig up. But an Ius that I you know,

975
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 2: it's like it sucks because of ice. He's this little, small,

976
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 2: undersized bag, very talented, but it's like, you know, it's

977
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:30,240
Speaker 2: like an IOUs against everybody. Uh, but Florida doesn't have anybody,

978
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 2: so Anas and I should be able to do what

979
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 2: he wants on the ground. Florida's defensive front stinks. So

980
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 2: and the other thing I say about that game is

981
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 2: even though A and M is one game worse than

982
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,720
Speaker 2: the standings, they're a game better in second order wins.

983
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 2: So it's a perception against reality in that one with

984
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 2: a team that plays better at home. Anyway, I'm on

985
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 2: A and M in that one for sure.

986
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well that will wrap it up. And

987
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 1: by what is the what's the line in that game?

988
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,319
Speaker 2: By the way, Yeah, A minus three and a half

989
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 2: last time I saw it three And there's been a

990
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 2: couple of lines in it moved even when we've just

991
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,399
Speaker 2: been on the show. It's it's kind of interesting. Maybe

992
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 2: maybe Wednesdays a time where the real money starts to

993
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 2: pour in.

994
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, uh, you know, right now it looks like, yeah,

995
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:16,760
Speaker 1: it's still three and a half everywhere.

996
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 2: Uh So that.

997
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 1: Uh I dude, I'm telling you, I just think that

998
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: the casuals are losing their stacks and they're out, so

999
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 1: you're getting more uh you know, sharps in here betting

1000
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 1: more sharks, you know, whatever you want to say it.

1001
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:35,320
Speaker 1: The big money betters are betting early because that's what

1002
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: they do every single week.

1003
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 2: But now in a rapt to our shows, bagman.

1004
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. You gotta wait. You gotta wait

1005
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 1: till Thursday and hear what we have to say about

1006
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 1: it here specifically, thor So, thank you so much for

1007
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 1: listening at thor ku on the Twitter. What do you

1008
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 1: got coming up?

1009
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: Thor Check out my show with Mike Ferrell on Saturday Morning.

1010
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 2: Starts at ten am Eastern and I'm so bad at

1011
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 2: time zones. Starts at ten am Eastern and it goes

1012
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,879
Speaker 2: until eleven thirty Eastern, thirty minutes before kickoff. It goes

1013
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 2: for ninety minutes and we run through as many games

1014
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 2: as we can. We give out side bets, total bats

1015
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 2: player props, We dive deep into that as well, and

1016
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:13,280
Speaker 2: we take audience questions the whole time. So so definitely

1017
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 2: check that out live and definitely ask us some questions

1018
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 2: because we will answer any questions that you.

1019
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: Guys have absolutely awesome and you're doing a show with

1020
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 1: I know Thomas has left us a little bit, but

1021
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 1: you're doing a show with my partner in crime, the Welsh. Yeah, right,

1022
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: that's been a fun one. He made some money off

1023
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,839
Speaker 1: of you with that ball State call for the Action.

1024
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 2: I love that. Yeah, you know. Yeah, Welsh has come

1025
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 2: in off the bench and it's performing really well. You

1026
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 2: know sometimes when the guy comes in out. We've seen

1027
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 2: this in college this year, but he's been one of

1028
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,879
Speaker 2: those QB two is that has come in and looked

1029
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 2: pretty good so far. So definitely check that out.

1030
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's another the Mondays right Monday morning.

1031
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,280
Speaker 2: It drops on Mondays. We recorded on Sunday late afternoon

1032
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 2: or early evening. But the value of that show is

1033
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: the more value gonna get on your bet. It's betting

1034
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 2: earlier in the week, and you know, we put our

1035
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 2: columns out later in the week because you want to

1036
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 2: reflect the current line. If I put my column out

1037
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: on Monday morning, the lines by the time that most

1038
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 2: of the public is betting on Thursday or Friday, it's

1039
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,239
Speaker 2: gonna be way different, right, So you have to wait

1040
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 2: on that. But that show is how we can tell

1041
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 2: you guys. These are the games where there's injuries on

1042
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:24,359
Speaker 2: one way or the other, and these are the games

1043
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: that you should look into betting right away because these

1044
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 2: lines will move.

1045
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, So check that one out as well. My

1046
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: article drops tomorrow as well. I five and five last week,

1047
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 1: so I've still only had the one under five hundred week.

1048
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:41,879
Speaker 1: I'm sixteen games over on the season still, so we're

1049
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: sitting pretty there. But check that out and see if

1050
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 1: you're winning edge I do with our friends Nick Allen

1051
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 1: and Sabia trishis Well. Please check that out and follow

1052
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: me on the Twitter at Boglin Sports. That is it

1053
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: for us. Appreciate you guys, good luck this weekend, and

1054
00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 1: we will see you next week. Take it easy, everybody,

1055
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 1: peaces