WEBVTT - Midtown Is Still Empty, Landlords Sounding the Alarm

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Global News. As Lisa and I were just discussing, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as it relates to the pandemic, it's kind of on

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<v Speaker 1>a tale of two cities. On on the one one hand,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got surge in cases, but on the other hand

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<v Speaker 1>you have that vaccines coming to the market and increasing quantities.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have to play those two off one another.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get the latest on all things as it relates

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<v Speaker 1>to the pandemic. We do that with Dr Ian LUs Better,

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<v Speaker 1>clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at the n y U

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<v Speaker 1>Lenggo and Medical Center, joining us on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>New York. Dr LUs Better, thanks once again so much

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<v Speaker 1>for joining us. I wonder if you could just give

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<v Speaker 1>us a sense as a real lates to the virus

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<v Speaker 1>and the cases we're seeing right now. Um, is it

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<v Speaker 1>manageable in the New York City or the greater metro

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<v Speaker 1>health system. We can do a better job this time

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<v Speaker 1>that perhaps we did back in March and April when

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<v Speaker 1>we were just blindsided. Yeah, I think we've learned a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>And Happy Friday, Lisa and Paul, thanks for having me. Um. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>New York definitely is is really now in sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the lower third of new cases compared to nationally, And

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of that is based on on

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<v Speaker 1>the very rough March and April we had where really

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<v Speaker 1>the system was stretched to its max. Literally every bed

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<v Speaker 1>plush was assigned to COVID patients and all of the

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<v Speaker 1>major medical centers, auditoriums were used, halways were used, uh

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<v Speaker 1>you know, tensor set up as we remember, even Mount

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<v Speaker 1>Sinai in in Central Park. So we really were stressed

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<v Speaker 1>at that point. I think a number of New Yorkers

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<v Speaker 1>have antibodies. They may have lost them along the way,

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<v Speaker 1>but I believe a part of the reason New York

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<v Speaker 1>is at this point in terms of new cases at

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<v Speaker 1>the lower third nationally. Unfortunately, states like you know, Tennessee,

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<v Speaker 1>California really still have you know, Wisconsin still have a

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<v Speaker 1>huge number of new cases coming. Part of that probably

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<v Speaker 1>due to the Thanksgiving a bump. You know, we knew

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<v Speaker 1>families were getting together, kids were coming back from college,

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<v Speaker 1>so we sort of expected, uh, you know, attend a

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<v Speaker 1>period of from Thanksgiving when there really would be a

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<v Speaker 1>bump in cases. But New York so far has been

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<v Speaker 1>faring pretty well. There's a lot to unpack here, I've

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<v Speaker 1>got to say, just you flicking at those tents in

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<v Speaker 1>Central Park reminds me of some pretty dark days in

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<v Speaker 1>New York City. I remember running past those and thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>is this the United States of America? I am wondering, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is there an inference that we can make about the

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalization numbers being much lower now than they used to be.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it just that more people are getting tested, so

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<v Speaker 1>we're getting more positives, or is the actual care for

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<v Speaker 1>people who are diagnosed much better with the knowledge that

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<v Speaker 1>we've developed. Lisa, good question. I think it's a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of both. Um, we certainly are treating patients differently. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Originally we had a very low threshold for intibating patients

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<v Speaker 1>putting them in the ICU. UM. A lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>critical care specialists now watch patients UM who may be

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<v Speaker 1>sick with COVID uh not everyone UM as their blood

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<v Speaker 1>oxygen the so called saturation drops you know, into ninety

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<v Speaker 1>or even blow ninety if patients are comfortable. They're also

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<v Speaker 1>just observed closely. They're not put on breathing machines, and

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<v Speaker 1>there was a certain risk and morbidity associated with that.

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<v Speaker 1>There's also a much lower threshold to start steroids early.

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<v Speaker 1>We've learned about that UM you know, rimdescit here. There's

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<v Speaker 1>been a lot of you know, pros and cons, but uh,

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<v Speaker 1>we sort of refined kind of how those ill patients

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<v Speaker 1>are treated, including blood thinners. So I think our mortality

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<v Speaker 1>is going down, the total number of cases is going up,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're right. Part of that is that we're testing

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<v Speaker 1>more people much more frequently. So we're often getting people

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<v Speaker 1>with really mild cases. They may have nasal congestion, call

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<v Speaker 1>for cold, they get a little panicky, Oh my gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>my my nasal swab was positive. What should I do?

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<v Speaker 1>Unfortunately a year later, we don't have anything like camouflew

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<v Speaker 1>for them. Although there are a number of physicians it's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting that have reported on iver mactin and a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of other uh not to get to controversial medications that

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<v Speaker 1>may be very helpful. So that's worth looking into. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think that combination of UH of more patients being

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<v Speaker 1>managed at home UH and and less intubated is giving

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<v Speaker 1>us some better numbers. Whenever we talk to frontline workers

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<v Speaker 1>like you, I always want to get a sense of

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<v Speaker 1>how are your people doing? How are the people at

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<v Speaker 1>n y u Lango and Medical Center. It's one of

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<v Speaker 1>the region's largest. It's just a world class facility. But

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<v Speaker 1>how are the people doing in the e R and

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the wards that really have to deal

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<v Speaker 1>with this? You know. I think it's an amazing staff

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<v Speaker 1>and everyone is very positive and energetic. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>going on almost a year, and I think there is

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of fatigue from patients and staff. Um. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>patients I think are much Uh they're they're emotionally drained. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>They've been told to, you know, be very careful for

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<v Speaker 1>going on a year now. UH. They missed families often

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<v Speaker 1>family events are you know, where are not attended? And

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<v Speaker 1>so I think there's a real psychologic toll, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's true to some degree. You know, there's mask fatigue.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean literally every day when you're in the hospital

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<v Speaker 1>and in the private offices too. You put on goggles,

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<v Speaker 1>you put on an in ninety I've masked. That takes

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<v Speaker 1>a toll on everyone along the way. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>there's a positive, you know, attitude. The staff is great.

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<v Speaker 1>We started getting vaccines this week for frontline workers. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>getting my vaccine Monday. So I think we are seeing

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<v Speaker 1>some light at the end of the tunnel. UM and hopefully,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we do think you get some immunity within

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a week or two, not complete immunity. That

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<v Speaker 1>um efficacy is really after two shots. The second shot

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in three to four weeks. Same for the

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<v Speaker 1>maderna vaccine that just got approved. So uh, you can't

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<v Speaker 1>be reckless, but I think people will feel a little

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<v Speaker 1>better psychologically. When will someone like myself be able to

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<v Speaker 1>get the vaccine, I think really within the next couple

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<v Speaker 1>of months. You know, we are doing the frontline healthcare workers.

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<v Speaker 1>It's really amazing. In December, UM, certainly in this area

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<v Speaker 1>north Well colleagues have already been getting their vaccines, mainly

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<v Speaker 1>hospital workers, and then that gets pushed out to the

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<v Speaker 1>private practices mant and that may take certainly another few weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>Same at n y U we've already been giving over

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<v Speaker 1>the last few days the you know, I see you staffer,

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<v Speaker 1>staff and so forth. Doctors and nurses have gotten it,

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<v Speaker 1>and then the practices over next week we'll start to

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<v Speaker 1>get that as well. Not mandatory, you know, they're not

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<v Speaker 1>making everyone take it, ironically, unlike the flu shot where

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<v Speaker 1>you have to take it in order to see patients. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it is voluntary, but I think most half is enthused.

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<v Speaker 1>All the people I know who have taken the vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>minimal side effects, a little ache at the site, kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like the flu shot, low grade fiver, none of

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<v Speaker 1>the allergic reactions I've I've heard about that. We've seen

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<v Speaker 1>just a couple of sporadic cases. Um, you know outside

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<v Speaker 1>of this area. Uh. And I think for regular patients

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<v Speaker 1>and my patients like Julius are saying, hey, when can

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<v Speaker 1>I get it? Um. N y U does plan to

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<v Speaker 1>give it out to our our patients. Uh. You know

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<v Speaker 1>in the next couple of months, is more shipments come

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<v Speaker 1>in which VECs SAN we'll have to see Maderna was

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<v Speaker 1>just approved. Those are two shots J and J is

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<v Speaker 1>one shot which makes it all up more convenient. That

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<v Speaker 1>has yet to be approved. Uh, And then we think

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<v Speaker 1>the local pharmacy, CBS, Walgreens, etcetera. So you should be vaccinated.

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<v Speaker 1>I think within eight weeks hopefully, you know, we're getting

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<v Speaker 1>it out to elderly and nursing homes. And I really

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<v Speaker 1>think by next summer we will have a fairly normal

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<v Speaker 1>looking country. Maybe not economically due to the real damage

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<v Speaker 1>that's occurred, but in terms of behavior, I think people

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<v Speaker 1>will will get back to a pretty normal life by

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<v Speaker 1>you know, spring and early summer is my guestimate at

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<v Speaker 1>this point. Well, I have to say that was probably

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<v Speaker 1>the most self serving question that's ever been asked, being like,

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<v Speaker 1>this is our personal desire. Everyone is asking that question question,

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<v Speaker 1>that's right, So actually we don't really we can't say

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<v Speaker 1>yet you know you're alpha adic or you're a certain age,

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to get it. All of those details really

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be worked out, and I think, but

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<v Speaker 1>but the timeframe is somewhere. We think in the next

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<v Speaker 1>eight to ten weeks will be very likely. But you

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<v Speaker 1>know how that's going to be done. It's really a

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<v Speaker 1>massive vaccination. We haven't done this, uh, you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>a very long time, so this is really a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of uncharted territory. The good news is, look, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not an emergency, and again most people who get this

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be fine. But we do certainly want

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<v Speaker 1>to get up to her immunity as soon as possible,

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<v Speaker 1>and and I think that will happen in the next

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<v Speaker 1>few months. Dr lust bede A. I've been reading some

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<v Speaker 1>some stories recently, some news stories that perhaps one dose

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<v Speaker 1>of the fiser and potentially the maderna might be enough

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<v Speaker 1>and that might allow certain people, or that might allow

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<v Speaker 1>a quicker rollout since you wouldn't have to bring use

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<v Speaker 1>another dose for the same patient. What is your thoughts

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<v Speaker 1>on that? What? What? What? What? Do you know? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no questions. Some antibodies are formed after one dose. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>that m R and A gets in your cells, makes

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<v Speaker 1>that viral protein, that spike protein, which seems to be uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the most antigenic. Your body then forms antibodies

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<v Speaker 1>to that over the course of you know, days, two weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>and then when the virus if you see the virus,

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<v Speaker 1>you already have antibodies to it, so it should make

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<v Speaker 1>it a much more um rapid response. Optimally, the data

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<v Speaker 1>so far really is those two shots, and many vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>are like that, shingles vaccine, pneumonia. You know, a number

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<v Speaker 1>of vaccines really require two shots to get an optimal

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<v Speaker 1>antibody response. It is my belief that the smart thing,

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<v Speaker 1>based on the data at this point would be to

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<v Speaker 1>get the two shots. I think most healthcare providers are

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<v Speaker 1>planning to get two shots um. But look, certainly people

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<v Speaker 1>will begin to be protected even after one shot. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think we're going to have to fight over vaccine numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>We really have a number of vaccine makers that over

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<v Speaker 1>the next few weeks and months are going to becoming available,

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't think we have to worry about rationing

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<v Speaker 1>um vaccine at this point. But I do think we

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<v Speaker 1>need to focus on the most vulnerable, you know, population

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<v Speaker 1>within the elderly and so forth. Dr inlus Better, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much once again for joining us. We always

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate your perspective and your knowledge, uh and the way

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<v Speaker 1>you can kind of get across some of this difficult

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<v Speaker 1>science here. Dr inlus Better, Clinical socio Professor of medicine,

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<v Speaker 1>at the n y U Lango Medical Center joining us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City, and that was

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<v Speaker 1>that eight week numbers is something that jumped out of me. Encouraging, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and it would be kind of exciting to get it

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<v Speaker 1>pretty soon and then get on a plane and go

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<v Speaker 1>on vacation. Not that that's where my mind is right now,

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<v Speaker 1>but my god, palm trees. So I mean, the scientists

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<v Speaker 1>have just done in a outstanding job. Now it's up

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<v Speaker 1>to the supply chain, folks. I guess that's way I'm

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<v Speaker 1>looking at. One of the clearest signs of the economic

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<v Speaker 1>harm being done to America in general, but certainly in

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<v Speaker 1>the Greater New York area, is the empty storefront and

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<v Speaker 1>that is obviously reflective of businesses that have gone out

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<v Speaker 1>of business, and that's obviously challenging for those businesses and

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<v Speaker 1>challenging for the landlords for those buildings in which those

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<v Speaker 1>businesses reside in. Bloomberg Business Week has a great article

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<v Speaker 1>on that. Joel Lubber, editor for Bloomberg Business Week, joins

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<v Speaker 1>us here from remote access from Brooklyn. Devin Leonard, projects,

0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 1>an investigations reporter for Bloomberg Business Week, also joins us

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.400
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City and Joel, this

0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:35.520
<v Speaker 1>is a big story, the retail story and the landlord

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.520
<v Speaker 1>and the real estate story all rolled into one in

0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 1>New York. Yeah, it really focuses on on Midtown Manhattan,

0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 1>and that also represents you know, midtown districts throughout the country,

0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:50.160
<v Speaker 1>if not world. And Devin's story really centers on on

0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:55.400
<v Speaker 1>a fascinating character, Aby Rosen, who in the commercial real

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:59.080
<v Speaker 1>estate world is actually a really big name. The reason

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.480
<v Speaker 1>that he's especially relevant to New York right now is

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.520
<v Speaker 1>that he's actually in the process of of doing a

0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 1>really extensive renovation of the Chrysler Building. And of all

0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:10.800
<v Speaker 1>the things that you could be doing in the middle

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>of a pandemic, you know, doing a you know, gikantic

0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 1>renovation of iconic building that um commercial tenants are probably

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 1>looking at but maybe not um biting on right now,

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.839
<v Speaker 1>is probably not one of them. Um. And that was

0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 1>why we wanted to talk to him, because you know,

0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:34.640
<v Speaker 1>this has serious implications for the economy as well as

0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:39.040
<v Speaker 1>cities right like New York is is really in the

0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:43.000
<v Speaker 1>jaws of something right now, and somebody like Abe can

0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of illuminate, you know, what it's like to be

0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:47.640
<v Speaker 1>a developer in all of this. So, so, Devin, what

0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:51.040
<v Speaker 1>did you learn from talking with him? Oh? Well, all

0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:53.360
<v Speaker 1>kinds of things. But but I think the biggest thing

0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 1>was just, you know, getting him to take me up

0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.160
<v Speaker 1>to the Chrysler building because it was fascinating to see

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:01.760
<v Speaker 1>what he's gonna do. You know, it's his hist you know,

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>two hundred you know, two million dollar plan to to

0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.600
<v Speaker 1>to renovate this sort of historic building. But there's there

0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:10.920
<v Speaker 1>was nobody there. You know, there was I mean, the

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:12.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, the lobby was empty, you know there you know,

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.120
<v Speaker 1>his publicist was commenting, I couldn't believe it was like

0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>a Sunday morning and meanwhile, it's ago Wednesday afternoon and

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:21.440
<v Speaker 1>about you know, five o'clock and we ran into one

0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:25.040
<v Speaker 1>tenant and he was leaving, and it was it was

0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:27.840
<v Speaker 1>just you know, it was just it was it was

0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.160
<v Speaker 1>just it was kind of a amazing me. I was,

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, I was just there at my taper quarter on,

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:33.120
<v Speaker 1>but I was just like, this is it. This is

0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.840
<v Speaker 1>the opening of the story, because you know, I don't

0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:37.720
<v Speaker 1>know any other way to to you know, to describe

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.720
<v Speaker 1>to you know, describe what's going on right now. So Devin,

0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>I was struck by this sort of trying to seem

0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:48.760
<v Speaker 1>optimistic on the front and then underneath having true anxiety.

0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.400
<v Speaker 1>And when we were first talking about this idea that

0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:54.600
<v Speaker 1>Aby would have a really good view on this, well,

0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 1>he wants to also portray things in a certain way.

0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.360
<v Speaker 1>And one of the best parts of the story was

0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 1>him how going with this guy and saying, hey, if

0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 1>you leave, trust me. The line to take the space

0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:06.880
<v Speaker 1>we pretty long, and the guy says, I hope so,

0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 1>and then and then Aby says, don't leave. Pay the

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 1>high rent. Come on. How much fear is there, Devin, Well,

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.480
<v Speaker 1>I think it depends who you are, you know. I

0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 1>think there's there's there's a certain amount of you know,

0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.760
<v Speaker 1>degree of fear for all these guys. I mean even

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:24.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, you know they're they're really big names. And

0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:28.320
<v Speaker 1>that's why you saw a lot of them calling tenants, uh,

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:30.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, in the falls in the fall and saying, hey,

0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 1>you gotta bring you gotta bring your people back, because

0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 1>they're worried that the longer, the longer people stay out,

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 1>the more people are going to get used to working

0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 1>at home, you know, the less demand there's there's gonna be,

0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, for you know, for their space and things

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 1>like that, so so so so the longer Longerest goes

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 1>on and just sort of you know, potentially the values

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>the values their buildings. You know. On the other hand,

0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 1>you know people I guess I'll gree you new of

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 1>you know one Vander, but you know, the newest the

0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:58.680
<v Speaker 1>newest guy script in the mid time, people like you

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 1>know in aby Rose, and they're they're a much better

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:04.480
<v Speaker 1>position that than than people with you know, class B buildings,

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:06.520
<v Speaker 1>you know intendants, So they're going out of business. But

0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:10.880
<v Speaker 1>even so, you know, you know, imagine if you are,

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, you just put a new skyscraper and you're

0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:15.480
<v Speaker 1>trying to market it in the middle of this. I mean,

0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 1>you'd be anxious to actually devin one of the things.

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 1>Let's just stay in the Crystler building here for a second,

0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:22.720
<v Speaker 1>because one of the most interesting things I learned about

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.120
<v Speaker 1>the Crysler building is that while he owns the building,

0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 1>he doesn't actually own the land the building is built on,

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.240
<v Speaker 1>and those payments are actually only going to go up.

0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 1>Um talk to us about that guy, em because also

0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:39.280
<v Speaker 1>who he has to pay is an interesting side story too. Yeah,

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's it's not a totally on you know,

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:45.360
<v Speaker 1>uncommon thing in in New York real estate. For I

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.440
<v Speaker 1>guess you you buy an effect you know, a building

0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>or basically buy a leasehold or a long term leasehold

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:52.920
<v Speaker 1>in the building. But then you have to pay you

0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, you know, you the code unquipe building owner.

0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:57.160
<v Speaker 1>You have to pay rent to somebody who owns the

0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>ground underneath. And in this case, uh, you know, wasn't

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>it you know, in his partner Signal group from Austria,

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 1>they have to pay thirty two million dollars a year

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 1>to coop reunion. Uh you know, you know, you know,

0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:13.560
<v Speaker 1>you know a college that that's basically they got into

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:16.880
<v Speaker 1>financial trouble a couple of years ago. They started charging tuition.

0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:19.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, they they've been found, they were founded, they've

0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.399
<v Speaker 1>been founded. Uh you know, you know in the nineteenth century,

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, to offer free free education to you know,

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.080
<v Speaker 1>working class kids. Well they're trying to get back to

0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:31.040
<v Speaker 1>to charge to not charging tuition. They're counting on that money.

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:32.840
<v Speaker 1>They're kind of that thirty two million dollars a year

0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:34.680
<v Speaker 1>from the Chrysler building and it goes up to forty

0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:36.960
<v Speaker 1>one in a couple of years. So that's a big

0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:39.359
<v Speaker 1>nut to cover every year, and that's sort of a

0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.600
<v Speaker 1>big challenge for Abe. Devin. Can we also just talk

0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:44.359
<v Speaker 1>about some of the singers in the story because he

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:47.359
<v Speaker 1>had he had some stuff to say. Um, let's start

0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:52.120
<v Speaker 1>with the Blasia. Yeah, well that's why. That's why he's

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.640
<v Speaker 1>he's so great, Uh, you know, such such a great

0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:57.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, lens to to look at this all through. Well,

0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:01.360
<v Speaker 1>he's It's interesting because because in September, you know, more

0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:04.120
<v Speaker 1>than a hundred and sixty business leaders wrote a letter

0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 1>basically criticizing the Blasio start of pleading with him to

0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.639
<v Speaker 1>do something about you know, rising crime and trash on

0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.440
<v Speaker 1>the streets and things like that. Well, Rosen didn't sign

0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 1>didn't sign the letter because he's friends with the Blasio.

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:17.920
<v Speaker 1>He talks to him a lot and talks about city policies.

0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:22.320
<v Speaker 1>But so basically, but he usually disappointed whether he said,

0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:24.240
<v Speaker 1>this is what I tell the Blasio, and I tell

0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:26.720
<v Speaker 1>I tell him I'm disappointed with what he's that are

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.120
<v Speaker 1>not done with school reopening and basically he said de Blasio.

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.480
<v Speaker 1>So he sits around and says, I maybe you know

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:33.840
<v Speaker 1>what can I do? Mean? But I want to do

0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 1>it's negative and you know, I can't make a decision,

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:40.520
<v Speaker 1>and Rosen said he's done, he's checked out. Wow, So

0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, is the expectation real quickly? Do you think

0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 1>that a thinks things are going to get better, come

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:50.160
<v Speaker 1>back to normal, New York come back? Well, I think

0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:53.159
<v Speaker 1>he thinks long term they will, and I think I

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:55.760
<v Speaker 1>think I think he thinks that that next year doesn't

0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:59.359
<v Speaker 1>be a new mayor and that you know, you know,

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:01.480
<v Speaker 1>that should be an improvement right there. But he was

0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:04.439
<v Speaker 1>also talking about, you know, Joe Biden is gonna win

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.200
<v Speaker 1>and he's going to get all this money for for

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:09.200
<v Speaker 1>New York. And we now know well, you know the

0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.280
<v Speaker 1>at the Senate stands fpublic publican had excuse me, that's

0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:16.080
<v Speaker 1>that may not happen. So so you have that there's uncertainty,

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:17.960
<v Speaker 1>but do the next mayor is and and then you

0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 1>have you know, the the you know, budget deficis and

0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 1>things like that. So you know, if you know this,

0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:25.160
<v Speaker 1>I think everybody thinks New York will come back. Depressions

0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 1>when when? When? Exactly right? Joel Weber, thank you so

0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.240
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us and bring us this story. Editor

0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:33.680
<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg Business Week on the remote from Brooklyn and

0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.879
<v Speaker 1>Devin fantastic reporting on this story. We really appreciate it.

0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Really rich story, products, projects and investigations. Reporter for Bloomberg

0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:43.280
<v Speaker 1>Business Week on the phone from New York City. Uh.

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:45.760
<v Speaker 1>Devin's story is featured in the new issue of Business

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:49.560
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine, available on a newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com.

0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:52.480
<v Speaker 1>And for those of you listening in New York, d

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.480
<v Speaker 1>C in San Francisco and watching on YouTube, Bloomberg Business

0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 1>Week continues. If you're listening on Bloomberg one oh six

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:02.359
<v Speaker 1>one in Boston based eight Business is next and Lesa,

0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:04.960
<v Speaker 1>this is that New York real estate issue. Um, when

0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:06.600
<v Speaker 1>you think about all that new construction that was gone

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:08.840
<v Speaker 1>up over the last four or five six years, you've

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:12.160
<v Speaker 1>gotta wonder how that's gonna play out going forward. You're

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:16.720
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser on Bloomberg Radio.

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:21.480
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Paul Sqweene alongside Lisa Brahmins.

0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:23.600
<v Speaker 1>We were sitting in for Carol Masser today and the

0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:25.879
<v Speaker 1>news of the day, as it has been for the

0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:29.320
<v Speaker 1>last several weeks, is, uh, what's going on in Washington

0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 1>in terms of fiscal stimulus that doesn't look right now

0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:36.680
<v Speaker 1>that the congressmen are working well with each other in

0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:38.680
<v Speaker 1>their sandbox, Let's get the latest. We do that with

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:42.240
<v Speaker 1>Laura Litvan, congressional reporter for Bloomberg News. She joins us

0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Washington and d C. Laura, there

0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:47.520
<v Speaker 1>seems to be a snag every other day. Just when

0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:49.840
<v Speaker 1>you think some momentum might be building for some type

0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:53.680
<v Speaker 1>of even limited stimulus, politics seems to get in the way.

0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:57.320
<v Speaker 1>What's the latest. Well, I do think there ultimately will

0:20:57.359 --> 0:20:59.919
<v Speaker 1>be a deal. But um John Thune, who has been

0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:03.840
<v Speaker 1>umber two Republican leaders, just told reporters that this could

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.399
<v Speaker 1>stretch into Monday before maybe something comes together and you

0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:10.400
<v Speaker 1>can get a vote in the Senate. They are wrestling

0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:13.119
<v Speaker 1>over the number of issues, but a leading issue, probably

0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:15.760
<v Speaker 1>the number one run, number one issue holding up the

0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:19.120
<v Speaker 1>trucks right now, is how to handle the federal reserves

0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:21.800
<v Speaker 1>UM emergency loan programs that were set up in the

0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 1>Care's Act, the Pandemic Relief Act that past in March.

0:21:25.640 --> 0:21:29.480
<v Speaker 1>Um Republicans like Pat too Mey and Mike Crepo want

0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:34.080
<v Speaker 1>to ensure that, uh, those those programs can't be revived,

0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:36.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, they say those were supposed to be temporary

0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:40.280
<v Speaker 1>in nature. Democrats are balking, and the Biden transition team

0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:43.359
<v Speaker 1>is weighed in. Democrats are saying that it hurts the

0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:46.840
<v Speaker 1>FED ability to respond to future crises. Republicans are concerned

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of these moneys could be used for

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:52.040
<v Speaker 1>state locally, which they have been bristling at, and they're

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:54.200
<v Speaker 1>trying to work that out. You know, Soon just expressed

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:56.920
<v Speaker 1>some confidence that something can be worked out, but things

0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:00.000
<v Speaker 1>could drag into the weekend and we have a potentially

0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:04.000
<v Speaker 1>all government shutdown occurring if they can't just agree on

0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the stopgap measure to buy them a little more time

0:22:06.119 --> 0:22:08.800
<v Speaker 1>tonight or why are we talking about this now at

0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:12.760
<v Speaker 1>the eleventh hour. Well, and that's kind of how these

0:22:12.800 --> 0:22:14.960
<v Speaker 1>things often work out. They do come down to the wire.

0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:16.920
<v Speaker 1>But there have been some very strong feelings on both

0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:19.679
<v Speaker 1>sides on um some of these issues and a lot

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:22.200
<v Speaker 1>of the details. Um, you know, the state local aid

0:22:22.560 --> 0:22:24.480
<v Speaker 1>in the size of the package has been something that

0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 1>Republicans have pushed back against for months. Um. But you know,

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:31.520
<v Speaker 1>these are really they often do take these things right

0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:33.399
<v Speaker 1>down to the wire, and then you know, there's a

0:22:33.440 --> 0:22:37.080
<v Speaker 1>lot of confidence being expressed by leaders of both parties

0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:38.800
<v Speaker 1>that a deal will come together. They're not going to

0:22:38.880 --> 0:22:41.159
<v Speaker 1>leave count until they get one. And we actually do

0:22:41.320 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 1>know the brought outlines of this this deal. It's going

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.560
<v Speaker 1>to be around nine billions. It's expected to have three

0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:51.080
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars a week, and enhanced unemployment benefits UH around

0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 1>three d billion dollars for the Paychex Protection program which

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:58.080
<v Speaker 1>helps small businesses, direct payments of around six billion dollars

0:22:58.200 --> 0:23:02.560
<v Speaker 1>for individuals, and some fun thing for transportation including airlines,

0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:05.720
<v Speaker 1>for back to thee distribution and for reopening school. And

0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:07.200
<v Speaker 1>really what they need to do is just to free

0:23:07.240 --> 0:23:10.320
<v Speaker 1>on a few final things and get the language drafted

0:23:10.440 --> 0:23:13.600
<v Speaker 1>and everyone agreed to it, and try to move that

0:23:13.680 --> 0:23:16.080
<v Speaker 1>through in a few days. Boy, I think a Congression

0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 1>reporter lare, that's a tough beat, cover these folks all day,

0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:22.240
<v Speaker 1>every day. I don't know how you do it. Um. So,

0:23:23.119 --> 0:23:25.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, it seems like the fiscal STIDMENTUS talks are

0:23:25.560 --> 0:23:28.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of bearing the lead a little bit here because

0:23:28.359 --> 0:23:31.119
<v Speaker 1>we need to fund this government going forward. It's just

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:34.159
<v Speaker 1>the metrics of what happens tonight the weekend. Are we

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:35.920
<v Speaker 1>going to get a stop gap for a week or

0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:39.399
<v Speaker 1>a day? What's that side of the equation, Well, what

0:23:39.520 --> 0:23:41.640
<v Speaker 1>they seem to be looking at is around two days,

0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:43.400
<v Speaker 1>maybe a little longer. They have to see what people

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:45.880
<v Speaker 1>will agree through and what they really need. The House

0:23:45.960 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 1>would probably vote on something tonight and the Senate would

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:50.639
<v Speaker 1>then take that and try to see if they can

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:53.680
<v Speaker 1>lose it by unanimous consent. They need that because in

0:23:53.720 --> 0:23:55.840
<v Speaker 1>the Senate it always takes more time to new things,

0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:58.360
<v Speaker 1>and there are some senators who are saying I might

0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:00.440
<v Speaker 1>not go along with this just because are some things

0:24:00.440 --> 0:24:03.320
<v Speaker 1>in the stimulus bill that I'm not sure I'm gonna like.

0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:05.280
<v Speaker 1>I want to know more detail about what's going to

0:24:05.359 --> 0:24:09.280
<v Speaker 1>look like first. So there's at least some possibility they

0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:13.399
<v Speaker 1>won't pass the stopgap bill. But if they don't, there's

0:24:13.480 --> 0:24:16.560
<v Speaker 1>some ability by the administration if it's clear that something

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:19.560
<v Speaker 1>is coming soon behind it, that will fix the problem

0:24:20.000 --> 0:24:23.080
<v Speaker 1>that they can delay any furloughs for a few days

0:24:23.119 --> 0:24:24.959
<v Speaker 1>if the funding is seen as likely to pass them

0:24:25.000 --> 0:24:28.080
<v Speaker 1>in their future. So from a political perspective, I don't

0:24:28.160 --> 0:24:32.200
<v Speaker 1>understand why Republicans wouldn't be trying to expedite this since

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:35.440
<v Speaker 1>a number of different surveys show it would help them

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:40.359
<v Speaker 1>in the Georgia election. Well, the leaders at this point

0:24:40.680 --> 0:24:43.480
<v Speaker 1>are trying to do that. And Mitch McConnell in a

0:24:43.680 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 1>call with other Republican senators this week as we brought

0:24:47.920 --> 0:24:50.680
<v Speaker 1>in the Georgia's racism and said that moving this along

0:24:50.720 --> 0:24:53.560
<v Speaker 1>would be helpful. What's happened is there are some lawmakers

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:55.680
<v Speaker 1>in both parties, in particularly we are seeing in the

0:24:55.760 --> 0:24:58.840
<v Speaker 1>Republican side right now who are saying they could hold

0:24:58.960 --> 0:25:03.560
<v Speaker 1>up that stop bill m over over these provisions that

0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:06.680
<v Speaker 1>they want to see changed on the letting facilities. And

0:25:06.720 --> 0:25:12.600
<v Speaker 1>another issue is this is bipartisan. Thep Senator Josh Holly

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:17.840
<v Speaker 1>and Independent Senator Bernie Sanders both want in direct payments

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:20.560
<v Speaker 1>and um, they're saying that they want to make sure

0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:23.119
<v Speaker 1>there's at least the generalists, you know, direct payment a

0:25:23.200 --> 0:25:25.680
<v Speaker 1>check to people in the final deal. And they're saying

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:29.000
<v Speaker 1>they aren't ready to say they'll look that stockcap measure

0:25:29.040 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 1>go through until they're sure of that. Are the folks

0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:34.480
<v Speaker 1>in converss are they surprised that we're not hearing much,

0:25:34.760 --> 0:25:37.480
<v Speaker 1>if at all, from the White House what the president

0:25:37.640 --> 0:25:42.120
<v Speaker 1>may want, what the President is willing to support. Well,

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:44.679
<v Speaker 1>Stephen the Niche in the Treasury Secretary has been at

0:25:44.680 --> 0:25:49.600
<v Speaker 1>the table in these talks, and you know, so there's

0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:52.400
<v Speaker 1>some belief that Trump would sign it, but I think

0:25:52.520 --> 0:25:54.680
<v Speaker 1>we all know that there can always be surprises with

0:25:54.760 --> 0:25:58.080
<v Speaker 1>President Trump at the last minute. He does want UH

0:25:58.680 --> 0:26:01.000
<v Speaker 1>direct payments, that's the biggest ship for him. They brought

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:05.359
<v Speaker 1>that in late into the talks. Minuchin and the leaders

0:26:05.440 --> 0:26:09.040
<v Speaker 1>are looking at six hundred, you know, the six checks,

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:11.680
<v Speaker 1>and we haven't heard that Trump is objecting to that.

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:14.080
<v Speaker 1>And one thing I will tell you is that Holly

0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 1>himself spoke directly with Trump had in the last twenty

0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:19.280
<v Speaker 1>four hours. He told us about this and he said

0:26:19.320 --> 0:26:21.159
<v Speaker 1>the President did not bring it up, saying that he

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:24.760
<v Speaker 1>was objecting to what's going forward. Laura litt Van, thank

0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:27.400
<v Speaker 1>you so much for being with us a Bloomberg News

0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 1>congressional reporter. And it just is amazing how it always

0:26:30.359 --> 0:26:32.040
<v Speaker 1>does come down to the wire. But we've been to

0:26:32.200 --> 0:26:35.040
<v Speaker 1>other wires, Paul. That's the thing. This isn't the first wire.

0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 1>We've had other wires. Just that this wire is actually

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:40.440
<v Speaker 1>going to trip something major, which is a government shutdown,

0:26:40.760 --> 0:26:42.840
<v Speaker 1>so it seems a little bit more realistic. But still

0:26:43.040 --> 0:26:45.520
<v Speaker 1>this has been dragging out. It has been and I

0:26:45.680 --> 0:26:48.520
<v Speaker 1>liked your question about the FED. What shocked I guess

0:26:48.520 --> 0:26:50.680
<v Speaker 1>it surprise me is I hadn't heard this about the

0:26:50.720 --> 0:26:53.280
<v Speaker 1>FED until today. I think, you know, you know, maybe

0:26:53.280 --> 0:26:54.959
<v Speaker 1>I wasn't paying attention, but it's kind of my job

0:26:55.000 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 1>to pay attention to this stuff. But it just seems

0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:59.200
<v Speaker 1>like a fundamental issue to come out. It's not like

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 1>we've been debating this for weeks. It just seems like

0:27:02.359 --> 0:27:05.320
<v Speaker 1>another way to trip up the talks here for whatever

0:27:05.400 --> 0:27:08.440
<v Speaker 1>political game. May you know, that's why it's stuffed down

0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:11.200
<v Speaker 1>there in Washington. And you know, folks like Laura Lipin

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:13.040
<v Speaker 1>have been covering Congress for a long time. They're so

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:15.760
<v Speaker 1>valuable to us because they kind of know how things

0:27:15.800 --> 0:27:18.240
<v Speaker 1>work down there. So but but yeah, but it's it's

0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 1>just curious to me because the main issues were state

0:27:20.560 --> 0:27:23.560
<v Speaker 1>and local funding and liability with respect to COVID, and

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:25.720
<v Speaker 1>now we're talking about the powers of the federal Reserve.

0:27:25.800 --> 0:27:28.239
<v Speaker 1>You just wonder what other aspects are going to come

0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:30.800
<v Speaker 1>out of the woodwork as we head towards the last

0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:38.120
<v Speaker 1>minute here a journal now, But you let me drive,

0:27:38.440 --> 0:27:42.879
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the

0:27:43.000 --> 0:28:01.680
<v Speaker 1>right I want to drive. Drive good questions this drive

0:28:01.760 --> 0:28:09.239
<v Speaker 1>to the globe dawn radio. Welcome back everybody. We are

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:13.520
<v Speaker 1>heading towards the market close here in about ten minutes time.

0:28:13.640 --> 0:28:16.640
<v Speaker 1>We have green, red, and green across the screen here.

0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:18.760
<v Speaker 1>It's basically a churn. It's been a churn all day,

0:28:19.200 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 1>NASDAC eating out about a half a percent of gains,

0:28:21.560 --> 0:28:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the SMP down just about two tenths of a percent.

0:28:25.160 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 1>The question is how much are people reassessing the momentum bets,

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 1>how much are people reassessing the incredible gains that we've

0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:34.720
<v Speaker 1>seen so far this month and this week and just

0:28:34.880 --> 0:28:38.520
<v Speaker 1>basically not doing much with that joining it was? Right

0:28:38.560 --> 0:28:42.680
<v Speaker 1>now is Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington's Trust,

0:28:42.800 --> 0:28:45.120
<v Speaker 1>And Tony, I love your sense. Do you think the

0:28:45.200 --> 0:28:50.360
<v Speaker 1>momentum has gotten over its skis at this point? Hey, Lisa,

0:28:50.400 --> 0:28:52.680
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me. Uh No, I don't think so.

0:28:52.800 --> 0:28:54.840
<v Speaker 1>I think we're seeing a little bit of nervousness around

0:28:54.960 --> 0:29:00.400
<v Speaker 1>the stimulus, uh you know, to protracted stimulus and goitiation

0:29:00.480 --> 0:29:02.720
<v Speaker 1>or discussion if you will. There's been it seems like

0:29:02.760 --> 0:29:05.960
<v Speaker 1>every day the market has been up expecting the stimulus package,

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:10.160
<v Speaker 1>yet it never seems to arrive. Right. So everyone's waiting

0:29:10.200 --> 0:29:12.080
<v Speaker 1>for the stimulus package, and right now we're dealing with

0:29:12.160 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 1>situation where they're yet again a hamstrong there, and yet

0:29:15.360 --> 0:29:18.040
<v Speaker 1>people are banking on stimulus and that's been baked into

0:29:18.080 --> 0:29:21.080
<v Speaker 1>the valuations. How do you square that as an investor

0:29:21.240 --> 0:29:24.480
<v Speaker 1>heading into your end Well, it's a great question. We

0:29:24.600 --> 0:29:27.040
<v Speaker 1>just released our capital market forecast, which is of course

0:29:27.080 --> 0:29:30.800
<v Speaker 1>our outlook for next year, and we made a lot

0:29:30.840 --> 0:29:33.440
<v Speaker 1>of changes to portfolios this week in order to reflect

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:37.440
<v Speaker 1>that outlook. And so specifically, we added to emerging markets

0:29:37.480 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 1>where we already had an overweight. We added to small

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:42.600
<v Speaker 1>cap where we were neutral and we're now overweight. We

0:29:42.680 --> 0:29:44.959
<v Speaker 1>also added to commodities to bring it up to neutral,

0:29:44.960 --> 0:29:47.400
<v Speaker 1>and we added to tips from a severe underway to

0:29:47.640 --> 0:29:51.040
<v Speaker 1>a moderate underway. So all across those trades, these added

0:29:51.080 --> 0:29:53.840
<v Speaker 1>to beta in the portfolios. Because when we look at

0:29:53.840 --> 0:29:56.440
<v Speaker 1>the outlook, we know we're going to get this stimulus package.

0:29:56.440 --> 0:29:58.120
<v Speaker 1>We don't know it's going to be today, over the weekend,

0:29:58.200 --> 0:30:01.280
<v Speaker 1>next week, maybe passi BI natural early next year, but

0:30:01.320 --> 0:30:03.600
<v Speaker 1>I would doubt it would take that long. And when

0:30:03.640 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 1>you combine that with the fact that these vaccines that

0:30:06.960 --> 0:30:10.320
<v Speaker 1>are arriving, vaccinations are occurring, and you continue to have

0:30:10.440 --> 0:30:14.480
<v Speaker 1>a FED which is extremely committed to accommodation, You're gonna

0:30:14.520 --> 0:30:17.160
<v Speaker 1>have a pretty good year next year and this tremendous

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:19.520
<v Speaker 1>pent up demand in the economy. All right, And I

0:30:19.640 --> 0:30:22.680
<v Speaker 1>just want to clarify I was checking the wrong screen.

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:25.239
<v Speaker 1>I apologize Nazac as a pee both doubt about six

0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:27.280
<v Speaker 1>tents of a present. I'm wondering, though, is this the

0:30:27.360 --> 0:30:30.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of dip that you buy or is this basically, uh,

0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 1>nothing in particular and you just kind of hold what

0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:37.160
<v Speaker 1>you've been holding into next year. Well, it's not much

0:30:37.200 --> 0:30:39.360
<v Speaker 1>of a dip yet, right, we're pretty close to those

0:30:39.360 --> 0:30:42.680
<v Speaker 1>all time highs. Having said that, we may not get

0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:46.480
<v Speaker 1>a huge dip before we race forward next year. So

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>on the extreme margin, anytime the market goes down, um

0:30:50.440 --> 0:30:53.480
<v Speaker 1>by even a percent, it's a buying opportunity if you're

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:57.720
<v Speaker 1>not fully invested relative to your long term plan. So Tony,

0:30:57.760 --> 0:31:00.760
<v Speaker 1>if fascinated by your e M hall because we've had

0:31:00.800 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot of cross currents on emerging markets, Uh, is

0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:06.520
<v Speaker 1>this what's driving your call? And kind of where do

0:31:06.600 --> 0:31:10.640
<v Speaker 1>you see the best opportunities in emerging markets? So you

0:31:10.720 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 1>have fall a couple of things. First, thing is that

0:31:12.840 --> 0:31:16.120
<v Speaker 1>if you think about the changes wrought through COVID, the

0:31:16.280 --> 0:31:21.200
<v Speaker 1>signal impact that is going to be singular when we

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:24.160
<v Speaker 1>look forward UM or when we look back at this

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:27.520
<v Speaker 1>period from the future, is going to be the acceleration

0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:31.440
<v Speaker 1>of digital, the digitization of the consumer. And when we

0:31:31.600 --> 0:31:35.400
<v Speaker 1>look at the e M, what you see is tremendous

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 1>supply side set up for the e M to supply infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud,

0:31:44.120 --> 0:31:47.640
<v Speaker 1>all those kinds of things for digitization of our society.

0:31:47.960 --> 0:31:51.360
<v Speaker 1>And from a supply side, they're frankly ahead in Southeast

0:31:51.440 --> 0:31:53.479
<v Speaker 1>Asia of the rest of the world when it when

0:31:53.520 --> 0:31:58.560
<v Speaker 1>it comes to casual society, telehealth, UM, contactless payment, all

0:31:58.600 --> 0:32:01.600
<v Speaker 1>those kinds of things. As the world becomes more and

0:32:01.680 --> 0:32:04.200
<v Speaker 1>more digital, UM e M set up for that. And

0:32:04.240 --> 0:32:06.000
<v Speaker 1>then the second thing, of course, is that there are

0:32:06.000 --> 0:32:09.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot cheaper relatively speaking from a historical perspective than

0:32:09.560 --> 0:32:12.200
<v Speaker 1>the developed equity markets are. And then maybe a third

0:32:12.320 --> 0:32:15.240
<v Speaker 1>order factor is the weakening dollar, which helps all non

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:18.160
<v Speaker 1>US equities. So there's quite a number of things that

0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:20.640
<v Speaker 1>are lining up here because the just EM is the

0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 1>place today. So I guess I'm looking at this and

0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:27.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking everyone has been coming out with a similar

0:32:27.440 --> 0:32:31.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of call, this feeling of continue with momentum emerging

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.960
<v Speaker 1>markets over the US, Europe over the US, although that's

0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:37.040
<v Speaker 1>a more controversial call. Does it concern you that there

0:32:37.160 --> 0:32:40.680
<v Speaker 1>is a degree of group think that, according to some measures,

0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:46.040
<v Speaker 1>is the most years. Well, I guess it won't always

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:47.560
<v Speaker 1>have to be worried about that. I mean, I think

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:49.840
<v Speaker 1>that when I think it's about the group think right now,

0:32:49.880 --> 0:32:53.800
<v Speaker 1>it's just this general optimism. Um. I think sentiment is

0:32:53.840 --> 0:32:58.040
<v Speaker 1>incredibly strong now for all equities. So that does concern me.

0:32:58.680 --> 0:33:01.480
<v Speaker 1>But when you look at value sations and you consider

0:33:01.520 --> 0:33:04.640
<v Speaker 1>where rates are as high a valuations are where nowhere

0:33:04.680 --> 0:33:07.280
<v Speaker 1>nears where we work during the bubbles of the late

0:33:07.400 --> 0:33:10.040
<v Speaker 1>nineties and such, And so I think that with rates

0:33:10.120 --> 0:33:13.400
<v Speaker 1>the slow and the FED committed to keeping blow at

0:33:13.480 --> 0:33:15.960
<v Speaker 1>least for another eighteen months or so. I know they're saying,

0:33:17.600 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 1>let's face that, no one really knows where we're gonna

0:33:19.440 --> 0:33:22.280
<v Speaker 1>be after eighteen months. That's a pretty far window. I

0:33:22.360 --> 0:33:27.400
<v Speaker 1>think that there's justification for for this um enthusiasm in markets.

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:31.280
<v Speaker 1>And again, these vaccines are game changing, and by our estimate,

0:33:31.360 --> 0:33:35.240
<v Speaker 1>there's probably a trillion and a half dollars of pentoff

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:37.880
<v Speaker 1>savings that are waiting to spill out into the server

0:33:38.040 --> 0:33:42.080
<v Speaker 1>side of the economy next year. That is a huge number. Yeah,

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:44.320
<v Speaker 1>you can put me in that camp, that's for sure. Uh,

0:33:44.760 --> 0:33:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Tony about vacation right, hit darn right, exactly, Hop on

0:33:48.920 --> 0:33:51.600
<v Speaker 1>a plane. Um. Tony talked to us about the rotation

0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:54.480
<v Speaker 1>trade here, you know, you know, out of maybe some

0:33:54.560 --> 0:33:56.760
<v Speaker 1>of the tech growth lightning up there, a little bit

0:33:56.800 --> 0:33:58.920
<v Speaker 1>on some of those big growth gainers, uh, and maybe

0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:01.160
<v Speaker 1>putting some more cap into some of the cyclical names,

0:34:01.200 --> 0:34:05.120
<v Speaker 1>maybe even smaller cap. How do you think about that? Yeah?

0:34:05.160 --> 0:34:07.120
<v Speaker 1>I think, I think that you need to be balanced,

0:34:07.160 --> 0:34:09.480
<v Speaker 1>and I do I do think you can ignore the

0:34:09.600 --> 0:34:13.000
<v Speaker 1>cyclical slash value trade that's happening right now small caps

0:34:13.120 --> 0:34:14.759
<v Speaker 1>race thinking have we just moved to an overweight on

0:34:14.840 --> 0:34:17.560
<v Speaker 1>small cap? I do think that we're going to continue

0:34:17.600 --> 0:34:21.680
<v Speaker 1>to see a catch up from those cheaper, junkier names

0:34:22.160 --> 0:34:24.799
<v Speaker 1>in both large cap and just more broadly in small cap.

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:29.920
<v Speaker 1>And so when you think about areas like energy, UM,

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:36.080
<v Speaker 1>infrastructure UM, areas of healthcare, materials, even financials, I think

0:34:36.160 --> 0:34:38.239
<v Speaker 1>over the next six months we're going to continue to

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:42.640
<v Speaker 1>see hard rotations, hard rotations into those areas. But that

0:34:42.719 --> 0:34:45.480
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean that you take it necessarily out of the

0:34:45.560 --> 0:34:51.200
<v Speaker 1>big cap tech names that there's four or five names Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Um, Google,

0:34:51.440 --> 0:34:54.440
<v Speaker 1>arguably Facebook. Maybe maybe not, depending on what happens there

0:34:54.480 --> 0:34:57.800
<v Speaker 1>with the antitrust overhead. Those platforms are going to be

0:34:58.600 --> 0:35:02.960
<v Speaker 1>the venues upon which the consumer is digitized going forward,

0:35:03.520 --> 0:35:06.440
<v Speaker 1>virtual reality, reality, It's just gonna go on and on

0:35:06.680 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 1>with those platforms. So you can't afford to kick those

0:35:09.280 --> 0:35:12.759
<v Speaker 1>platforms out of your portfolio. Tony Roth, chief investment officer

0:35:12.800 --> 0:35:15.040
<v Speaker 1>at Wilmington Trust with a hundred and twenty four billion

0:35:15.080 --> 0:35:18.520
<v Speaker 1>dollars in management, joining us on the phone from Philadelphia. Paul,

0:35:18.520 --> 0:35:21.879
<v Speaker 1>I gotta say the Russell's two thousand up twenty eight

0:35:22.120 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 1>percent since the end of October alone. I know that

0:35:26.040 --> 0:35:28.279
<v Speaker 1>is the trade. Yeah, it really is the trade. And

0:35:28.280 --> 0:35:30.880
<v Speaker 1>we've seen that rotation play. You really start in September

0:35:31.360 --> 0:35:33.480
<v Speaker 1>and then just gain a tremendous men momentum and it's

0:35:33.520 --> 0:35:36.360
<v Speaker 1>you know again, don't fight the Fed, Lisa, and Chairman

0:35:36.400 --> 0:35:40.400
<v Speaker 1>Pal has been very clear as to what he views

0:35:40.760 --> 0:35:44.440
<v Speaker 1>the rate environment going through at least. Thanks so much

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