WEBVTT - The Dangers of Superfast Science 0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:11.799 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day fifty one 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:16.760 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:21.919 Researchers and scientists are moving at unprecedented speed to add 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:25.639 to what we know about the pandemic. That speed is 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:29.160 warranted because understanding the virus is the only way to 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:34.640 eventually contain it. But it's also leading to confusion and 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:41.280 challenging the public's faith in science. But first, here's what 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:53.960 happened today. There are many unanswered questions about coronavirus. One 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:57.319 of them how long will all this last? Now has 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:01.360 a possible answer. A group of experts say the pandemic 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.319 is likely to be with us for as long as 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:09.319 two years. A report from the Center for Infectious Disease 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:13.040 Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota says the 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.520 fact that people without symptoms can spread the virus makes 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:21.360 it harder to control than the flu, and people maybe 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:28.200 at their most infectious before any symptoms appear. After locking 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:31.600 down billions of people around the world to minimize COVID 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:37.200 nineteen spread, governments are now cautiously allowing businesses and public 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:42.280 places to reopen. Yet the report predicts the coronavirus pandemic 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:45.880 is likely to continue in waves that could last be 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:51.280 on twenty twenty two. We'll need about two thirds of 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:55.240 the world's population to become immune before we can control 0:01:55.360 --> 0:02:01.360 the virus, the authors said. And about that immunity, one 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:03.840 way to get it is through a vaccine, which is 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:07.120 still a long way off. Another is by having the 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:12.320 antibodies one develops after fighting off the disease. But some 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:15.799 have questioned whether everyone who has had the virus develops 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.239 these antibodies, which would make it more complicated to target 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:25.000 certain people for immunity Today, Anthony Faucci, the scientist who's 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.120 leading the u S response to the pandemic, said that 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:31.800 most people who have had the coronavirus probably would have 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:36.560 the antibodies. Fauci, who was the director of the National 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:40.320 Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it would be 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:45.640 extremely unusual if patients did not develop antibodies. He said 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:51.920 it would be almost unprecedented. Different states in the US 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:55.840 vary in the cautiousness of their approach to restarting businesses. 0:02:56.880 --> 0:03:00.280 Florida Governor Ronda Santis said the state would re open 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:05.200 state parks on May fourth. Meanwhile, New York Governor Andrew 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:09.360 Cuomo made it official that schools would remain closed for 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.239 the duration of the school here, and New York City 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:16.280 Mayor Built A. Blasio said the city was making some 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:24.000 progress toward fighting the outbreak, but not enough to justify reopening. Finally, 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.120 the virus continues to take its toll around the globe. 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.919 Russia had a surge in new cases a day after 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:34.960 Prime Minister Mikhail ms Houston said he had tested positive. 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:39.960 Hubei province, the epicenter of China's outbreak, will lower its 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:44.480 emergency response, while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:54.920 would probably extend the emergency by about a month. And 0:03:54.960 --> 0:04:02.920 now our main story. On April, a New York hospital 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:07.760 system reported a stunning eighty eight percent death rate among 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:12.960 its COVID nineteen patients unventilators. Two days later, they put 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:17.359 out an update. Actually, only twenty four point five percent 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:20.920 of patients on ventilators had died. How did this happen? 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:26.960 Which number was right? The answer is complicated and has 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:30.880 to do with different ways of slicing the data, But 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:34.120 it is just one example of how quickly guidance about 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:39.719 coronavirus can change. Scientists are facing unparalleled pressure to provide 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:44.599 information about the virus as quickly as possible, and when 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:48.000 every day it brings forth new data. What was clear 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:53.279 one day maybe confusing the next. Conflicting reports on the 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.719 benefits of wearing masks, how the virus spreads, and even 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:00.560 the efficacy of promising new drugs like rumdesvie are all 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:05.200 products of the global race to provide answers about the coronavirus. 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:11.080 Problem is, science usually doesn't move this fast. So what 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:15.320 happens when the slow and steady process of research, peer review, 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:20.640 and the traditional publication process hits warp speed. I spoke 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:24.280 with Bloomberg's Michelle fay Cortes and Robert Langreth to learn 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.480 more about why it's so hard to part the science 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.920 and about the danger that the public will lose faith 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:38.839 in scientific research and reporting. What makes interpreting data so 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:43.040 difficult when it comes to, for example, case and mortality rates, 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:46.359 but in general, for numbers we see related to coronavirus. 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.680 Number one, we don't know how many people have coronavirus 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:52.280 in general. That's a testing issue. And the other one 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.960 on the mortality rates is a lot of the information 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:57.960 we have is very preliminary. A lot of people haven't 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:01.239 died from coronavirus who might sadly die in the next 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:04.279 few days or weeks. So when you're trying to figure 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.440 out what the real numbers are, if you're trying to 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:11.159 do that very quickly, you have to make this decision 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:13.360 about are you going to get out what you know 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:15.680 now or are you going to wait until you can 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:17.680 be a little bit more definitive and a little bit 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.599 more comprehensive. Scientists are looking to answer a very narrow 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:26.160 and specific question generally, and they also normally have some 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:28.840 kind of a base of information that they're working off of. 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:32.560 When it comes to coronavirus, we don't know pretty much 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:35.360 anything about any of it. So every time someone has 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:39.320 a data set, everything in there is interesting. What's different 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:43.560 about how research is being done now versus before the pandemic. 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.360 The way of doing it normally is there's a back 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:49.359 and forth process between the researchers who have done the 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.719 work and determined what their answers are to the questions 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:55.279 that they're asking, and then they go back and forth 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:58.880 with the medical journal and with peer reviewers to make 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:02.039 sure that they've honed in exactly the right issue, that 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:07.040 they've done the scientific analysis and the statistics correctly, and 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.480 that the way they're characterizing it and writing about it 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:14.480 is accurate in the current situation. A lot of times 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:16.920 there is no back and forth, which means that there 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:20.840 hasn't been any review really of the substance of their articles. 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.440 So it is a very very fast process. In some cases, 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:28.680 they're not even being presented in any print anywhere. We're 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:32.240 just seeing a press conference, or maybe we've got some slides, 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:35.040 or perhaps we have the head of n I a 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:38.080 I d. Dr Anthony Fauci, sitting next to President Trump 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:40.960 in the Oval Office telling us something that none of 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:43.720 us have known before, and that we're just getting it 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:47.680 for the first time with no no notes to understand it. 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.800 We're seeing we're seeing science by press release. We're seeing 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:55.080 science announced in fragmentary form by politicians so they can 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.240 get credit for what's going on. We're even seeing, you know, 0:07:57.440 --> 0:08:01.600 science being put out and publicized on social media by 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.880 prominent people that then gets wide distribution everywhere. And even 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:09.320 when the science is published, you know, in a medical journal, 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:11.760 aren't you're viewed. It's coming out very very fast, and 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:14.200 you know my senses. In the In the rush to 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:17.200 you know, get out as much information as possible, scientific 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.320 journals are basically sent to letting it you know, much 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.920 more preliminary information than they're published in the past, and 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:25.600 the public isn't always you know, full of way away 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:28.200 of just how preliminary some of these studies are and 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:31.240 some of this data is. What are some examples of 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:35.600 how these rushed conclusions have really affected the public's understanding 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:39.560 of coronavirus in general. There's been just a lack of 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:44.160 understanding about how the coronavirus is playing out in our country. 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:46.960 We have a lot of people who didn't know about 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.680 whether or not they should wear a mask. Those rules 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:52.400 changed over the course of this virus. When it comes 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:53.960 to something like whether or not we're going to have 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:58.040 a treatment for coronavirus and whether or not, for example, 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:01.560 Gilead Sciences drug ram does it. Here, we're getting some early, 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:04.720 good preliminary information about that, but we don't know whether 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.680 it's going to hold up once it's been reviewed embedded 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:10.760 more thoroughly. And the other example that I put out there, 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.240 which there's a lot of debate about right now, has 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:16.320 a lot of the very preliminary studies on these antibody tests, 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:20.320 saying you know significant percentage of the population you know 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:25.240 who haven't officially tested positive for coronavirus and have antibodies 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:27.319 to it, so that that means they may be exposed 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.040 and may be immune for a period of time. And 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.040 what's not getting out there to the public is that 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.360 you know, a lot of these antibody tests, the results 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:37.040 are somewhat controversial, a lot of the tests are put 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.000 on the market without much review, and they may actually 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:43.199 produce a significant number of false positives. Yes, and then 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.520 the issue with that, of course, is that people are 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:49.439 making decisions based on whether or not they have antibodies 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.160 in their blood. So if that test is not accurate 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.320 and you think that you're safe and you're out there 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:58.560 mingling in the public without taking precautions that you otherwise 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:00.800 would to protect other people, you could be doing all 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:04.679 kinds of damage. Not only that, governments are making decisions 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.240 about how much they can open and what they can 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.920 allow their population to do. And again, if they're making 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:16.040 those decisions based on inaccurate test results, disastrous consequences can result. 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:21.000 With the recent announcement of the potential of ramdsevere. Are 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:24.520 people rushing in the same way to grab onto this 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:31.679 potential perhaps sooner than necessarily scientific research would suggest is possible. Well, 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.360 it's pretty amazing the level of attention being paid to this, 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:38.360 as you know, potentially the first approved coronavirus treatment. And 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:40.600 like even my a some year old mom was like 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.160 literally calling me and asking me about it yesterday. Should 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.560 should I get this from my medicine cabinet, So like 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:48.840 just everyone is paying attention to it, and the warrior 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:51.040 is a danger is that people don't realize, you know, 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.680 just how preliminary these results are the main results of 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:58.280 the government's monster trial. They're basically announced at a prece 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.400 event with the President Trump and Faucian. That an oppression. Ly, 0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:04.280 so we don't have the scientific publication of any of 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.640 the details of this trial, and you know exactly how 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.200 good are the results? You know, these or details are 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.040 really important to now you know whether it should be 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:14.480 approved and how it should be used. And that's exactly 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.640 the situation that the FDA is planning to take pretty 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.320 quick action when it comes to ram desevere, and we 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.640 don't have an awful lot of information about how the 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.240 drug works. I mean, let's take a beat here and 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:30.040 realize we've only even known this virus existed for about 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.840 four months. So to go from not even having it 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:38.960 in existence to having a treatment specifically for it is astonishing. 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.720 And the only way to do that is by going 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.000 at an accelerated pace, the likeness of which we have 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:48.920 never seen before. So by definition, we're going to have 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:52.319 to be making decisions based on incomplete data. In general, 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.679 the understanding of the drug isn't isn't widespread throughout the US. 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.400 I keep getting messages from people asking me, is this 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:01.280 really a cure? And in fact, it's not at all 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.360 a cure. Even the results that we're seeing now suggest 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:06.959 that it's going to be able to perhaps help people 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:09.760 get out of the hospital a few days earlier. So 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:13.439 it does give us perhaps a treatment, and perhaps our 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:16.880 first treatment for this virus, and that is incredibly important. 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.959 But the idea that it's any kind of a panacea 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:23.280 or a silver bullet or a prevention, that's just not 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:27.480 even on the table. Do you see a loss of 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:32.160 faith or perhaps increasing doubt about scientific research overall because 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:36.040 people essentially are getting whiplash? Yes, wear masks, No, don't 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:38.920 wear masks. Do you see an an issue there of 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.840 the public's essentially loss of faith in in the validity 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:47.240 of scientific research because of this, Well, there is this 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.360 this idea, a theory called truth decay, which is what 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:55.040 happens when the general public stops believing what they're hearing 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.240 from scientific authorities. And we had already been seeing some 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.600 of that before coronavirus came out, when it comes to 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.280 things like vaccines and climate change and that sort of 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.559 a thing. At this point, we really do see that 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:11.600 most Americans are holding scientists in very high regard, and 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.640 we can see from what's happening with flattening the curve 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.800 and that type of thing, that people are listening that 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.600 most Americans are staying in their homes. Most people in 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:23.080 the world are staying in their homes to try to 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:28.040 fight this virus, but they're getting very anxious about it, 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.440 and they're getting upset about it, and we're coming to 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:34.559 the end of people perhaps just listening to the scientists. 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.160 So that's why we're seeing some of these protests and 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:42.080 these efforts to open up more quickly and at some point, 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.960 if there's more and more questions about the validity of 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.680 the science and if the virus doesn't continue to operate 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:51.240 the way that we expected to, then we might start 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.520 seeing even more of that truth decay when it comes 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:57.720 to coronavirus. What could the public understand better about the 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:02.240 science to stop truth decay? And what can science writers 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.240 like you to do to help. That's such a great question, 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:09.000 and I don't know that there's any easy answers to it. 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.760 Of course, for consumers, they can make sure that they're 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.280 listening to really legitimate sources of information and that they're 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:23.400 hearing it directly from scientists and scientific journalists who understand 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.360 all the nuances. And I think there's a responsibility on 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.880 us to make sure that when we're writing these pieces, 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:33.280 that we're writing it for people who understand perhaps less 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:37.400 than we might originally expect, and make sure that we're 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.800 writing our stories so that people can understand both the 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:44.120 limitations of the science and the promise of the science, 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.800 so that people can have hope, but they won't have 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:50.000 false hope. And I think that the public needs to 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:53.520 understand that pretty much everything they're hearing, all the results 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.880 are hearing about the coronavirus now, all the scientific results 0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:01.280 about affection rates, death rates, and about a testing rates uh, 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:06.080 all that information is very preliminary right now and subjectory vision. 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.720 It's only going to be a gradual process of converging 0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:11.080 on the truth, and they just have to understand that process. 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:12.360 You know. It's going to be a bit messy and 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:14.760 messier than usual because it's playing out in real time, 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.560 it's playing out in public, and it is a giant, 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:21.280 hard to follow fire host information. But the scientists they 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.360 are doing their best. They are working around the clock, 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:25.760 really and many of them I talked to to try 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.360 to understand the coronavirus and how to test for it 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:30.320 and how to treat it and how to find a vaccine. 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:32.760 You know, but right now the process is quite messy, 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.040 you know. B B be leery of any one result 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.120 of that you hear, you know, on TV or in 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:40.680 the news, and don't don't assume it's the final word, 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:45.920 because it's probably not. That was Bloomberg's Michelle fake Cortez 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:50.160 and Robert Langrath, and that's our show today. For coverage 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.040 of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:58.440 visit bloomberg dot com Flash Coronavirus and if you like 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.400 the show, please leave as a review. And a rating 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:05.280 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:10.520 help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.080 edition is hosted by Me Laura Carlson. The show was 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:19.119 produced by Me topher Foreheaz, Jordan gas Pure, and Magnus Hendrickson. 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:23.760 Today's main story was reported by Michelle fe Cortez and 0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:29.400 Robert Langriff. Original music by Leo Sidran. Our editors are 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:34.800 Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.160 of podcasts. Thanks for listening.