WEBVTT - Is Ethiopia On the Brink of War? 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:11.360 The risk of a war in the Horn of Africa 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:15.240 appears to be growing as Ethiopian troops mobilize on the 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:16.280 Eritrean border. 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:20.079 Ethiopia's quest the sea access is irreversible. 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:24.200 Tensions between the two countries have been building for weeks, 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:27.760 with the Ethiopian Prime Minister making clear the country wants 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:29.480 to regain access to the sea. 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:32.800 I am a million percent sure that Ethiopia will not 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:34.560 remain a landlocked country. 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:35.000 Really. 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:38.800 On this episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll look 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:42.320 at what's behind these latest tensions and if they really 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:48.600 will spill into a new regional war. I'm Jennifer's Abasajob 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.720 and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:55.120 story each week from the continent driving the future of 0:00:55.160 --> 0:01:00.360 global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.680 us this week is our reporter Simon Marx, who is 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:08.080 based in East Africa, and also Shattil Tronvoll, a professor 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:12.120 at Oslo New University College and also an expert on 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.280 the region. Thank you both so much for joining us 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.880 this week. Simon, Let's just start with you. Your latest 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.280 report is now available on Bloomberg platforms. 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:22.319 Get us up to speed. 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:24.760 What do we know about what's happening on the border 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.440 between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.600 Well, what we know for a fact is that in 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:36.040 recent days and weeks there has been a considerable amount 0:01:36.040 --> 0:01:41.640 of trout mobilization inside Ethiopia by the governments of Abiyamas, 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.960 and these troops, reportedly in their thousands, have made their 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:50.720 way northward towards there atrea yes, but more importantly perhaps 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:56.640 towards the border with the northern Tigrai region in Ethiopia, 0:01:56.840 --> 0:02:01.600 where there is a regional government currently hostile to Abyama. 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:05.160 It's in some ways a repeat of what we. 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:09.080 Saw five years ago when there was a war between 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:13.640 the Pigrian governments in that northern region and the government 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.600 of Abyamas, who at that point was more recently in 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:19.200 power in Ethiopia. 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:23.120 Chattiel, let me bring you in here, because Assignment was 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:26.040 just walking us through this. How are we now at 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:30.840 a situation where war potentially looks likely again? After we 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:34.560 had thought there there was a piece deal and the 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:37.000 conflict seemed to be in the rear view. 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:41.240 This has been a conflict long in the making, and 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.400 we have to go back to the former War on 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:47.720 Tigrind twenty twenty to twenty twenty two, where Ethiopian federal 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:52.680 government where allied with Atitria in the war on the 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:57.400 Tigrean regional authorities. It's to togrive People's liberation front. But 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:01.480 when that war was settled with the secession of hostility 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:05.320 agreement called the Praetoria Agreement in November twenty twenty two, 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.920 that was only an agreement between the TPA lef regional 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:14.280 administration in Tigray and the federal authorities in Ethiopia. Eritrea, 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:18.160 as a key actor to that war, was not included 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.760 in the discussions or in the agreement, and we know 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:26.880 that soon after that agreement was announced that President Decizequerki 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:31.560 of Editrea was very skeptical to the secession of hostilities 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:36.920 because his objective of entering that war was to crush 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.400 the TPA Left Party one time and for all, to 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:45.520 anhiliate the party and its structure, and the Pretoria agreement 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.800 saved the party and restored the party into gray as 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:54.640 the dominant political force and the regional authority. So already 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:58.440 from that time we saw that the relationship between Osmarra 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:03.920 and Adis started toctoriate and since then that has escalated, 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:09.520 so to say, the hostilities also because that Albi Ahmed 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:13.200 a year and a half ago started to argue quite 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:19.120 insistently that Ethiopia needed an outlet to see that it 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:23.240 was an existential threat to Ethiopia that they didn't control 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:29.680 Red Sea access, meaning the subport of Editrea. The Federal 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:33.599 government of Ethiopia has insisted over and over again that 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:37.920 it is a necessity for Ethiopia to have a sustainable 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:41.560 access to Red Sea, also to build a naval base, 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.880 and that has then, of course been a worrying sign 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:50.120 from Osmara, from Eritrea that it looked upon that as 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:53.680 a threat, although that Europian government has been very skillful 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:59.440 in playing what is called constructive ambiguity, saying that they 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:02.960 want an act to Red Sea through negotiations, but if 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:07.719 that doesn't happen, well something else might come into play. 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:12.479 Let's just get into more of this new alliance, because 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:17.560 you outline there really how this has shifted, the alliances 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:20.880 have shifted over the past few years. Can you unpack 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.480 more of what we are seeing between Eritrea and the 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:26.080 breakaway to Gray region. 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.400 This is nothing new because this is how politics have 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:34.039 been played in this region for centuries, that various regional 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:40.960 powerholders are negotiating alliances and allegiances versus the center, so 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:44.920 to say, to try to capture the political center. Because 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:48.000 many people think it is quite strange that Editrea, which 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:52.960 was probably the main perpetrator of the gross war crimes 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:57.320 committed on the Tagrain people just five years back, that 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:03.000 the Tigrain authorities now enter into an alliance with the perpetrators, 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:07.080 so to say. I think, as interpreted locally, it is 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:12.800 because they feel that they are dying standing up, as 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.279 they say, because it has been a kind of a 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:21.280 containment strategy from the federal authorities versus degrai. They haven't 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:25.360 been able to rebuild after the war. They haven't restored 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:30.280 their territories, they haven't restored the full administrative powers, they 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:34.080 have not been represented politically at the federal level. So 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:37.919 there are many grievances and they have barely survived. And 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:41.960 the humanitarian situation in Tigray has also been deterror rating 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.080 over the last two years. So from the local point 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.520 of view of the powerholders in Mechle, they say that 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:52.320 you know, we are dying as we are by starvation, 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:57.120 so let's try to rock the boat to see if 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:01.479 we can get a new momentum, and who can help 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:07.039 us to create that momentum They need some new alliances. 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:12.400 And then it seems to be that Editrea was ready 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:16.040 then to enter into a dialogue with the political leadership 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:21.120 integral to safeguard their own interest versus our Disaba. And 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:25.600 the federal government of Ethiopia has been accusing Editrea repeatedly 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:30.240 for the last two years to fund insurgencies in Ethiopia, 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:35.600 the Amhara Pharmo insurgency, but possibly also the Rumo La insurgency. 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:41.000 So this falls into a pattern that editrea strategy versus 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:46.120 Ethiopia is destabilizing strategy to weaken the security control of 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:51.360 the federal government in order to deter them to attack Editria. 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:55.080 And we'll just pause right there. Stick with me, both guys. 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:58.000 When we come back, we'll look more at how serious 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.000 the chances are a major malitary confrontation. 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:03.360 After the break, we'll be right back. 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:11.440 Welcome back today on the podcast, we're discussing the growing 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:16.400 fears of a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia in East Africa. 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.480 Simon Marx is still with me, Simon, how dangerous could 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:24.960 a war in this region be, especially considering what we've 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:27.920 seen over the past few years and what Shatil was 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:31.520 just explaining to us about what some other population has 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:33.439 still been experiencing. 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:37.320 Well, the last thing the whole of Africa needs, goes 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.800 without saying, is another war. You already have a lot 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:43.040 of conflict in this region. Obviously in neighboring Sudan. For 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:47.240 the last three years there's been an absolutely gruesome civil 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:50.640 war going on between the Army and the Rapid Support Forces, 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:55.080 and that has attracted a whole host of proxies regionally, 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:59.960 with the United Arab Emirates backing their Rapid Support Force 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:05.680 and other countries like Saudi Arabia Egypt for example, being 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:08.720 more closely aligned with the army, and you're seeing these 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:14.320 proxies play out also to some extent inside Ethiopia. So 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:18.640 any ignition of war could very likely see a repeat 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:24.120 effect inside Ethiopia and Eritrea, where you have the Saudis 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:28.960 and Egypt reportedly being quite close with the government of 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:35.480 Isaias and the Emiratis having substantially backed Abby financing and 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:40.440 political support as well there. So there is a huge 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:45.000 risk for escalation, and recently you've seen these proxies play 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:48.040 out to some extent on the issue of access to 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.360 the Red Sea, where you have Saudi Arabia closely aligning 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.880 with the government in Somalia and the United alb Emirates 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:58.680 aligning very closely with the breakaway region off Somali land. 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:02.720 So you're seeing these these proxies pop up all over 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:06.160 the region, and that will only fuel any war that 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:11.679 breaks out. And as for the humanitarian situation, obviously, globally, 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:15.320 right we've seen a huge cut in funding for food 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:19.480 and humanitarian aid, largely from the US but also from 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:23.280 other countries in Europe, and there hasn't really been much 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:26.200 in the way of other regions stepping in to fill 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:32.280 that gap. So it's a very precarious situation inside Ethiopia. Economically, 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:34.840 it took a long time to recover from the last 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:38.520 war as well as the COVID pandemic, you know, which 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:42.360 really cripple the economy and send Ethiopia on a pathway 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:46.040 to defaulting on its debt. It's only just beginning to 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:51.760 sort of address that now with creditors, so really it's 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.480 not worth contemplating how disasters it could potentially be. 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:59.600 And we should just add that the UAE does officially 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:04.719 deny providing support to the RSS. It's also interesting when 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:09.560 you think about Turkey's Urduan was in the region over 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.160 the past few days, and when you think about the 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:16.360 proxies and the different relationships that these countries have, two 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:20.320 countries that are outside of the region. Chetio, I wanted 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:22.200 to get your opinion on that as well. I mean, 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.200 I see you quoted as saying you could you potentially 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:29.720 foresee a bigger conflict. What's your take on whether other 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.320 countries could be drawn into this if in fact we 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:33.920 do see that playing out. 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:38.280 So both Editrea and Ethiopia are already engaging in the 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:42.120 Sudanese War theater on each other's side. And then you 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:46.000 have as indicated that Egypt is a very strong back 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:50.160 of Eritrea because of its own interest to destabilize and 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.160 weak in Ethiopia. So Ethiopia will not exploit the Blue 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:57.640 Nile and the Good Dam, potentially weakening egypt control of 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:01.840 the line. And the Saudi is linked into that alliance, 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:07.719 directly assisting Editrea politically but possibly also financially. In the 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:12.160 run up two air confrontation, the Somaliland and Emeratis are 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:17.640 linked on them Ethiopian side, and where Somalia Mogadishu is 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:21.400 on the Eritrean side, and in the tripatriot agreement between Egypt, 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:25.920 Editrea and Mogadishu, this has the potential to really escalate. 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.920 And I was just talking on the Norwegian podcast earlier 0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:32.520 today and we started to characterize this as a potential 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:36.000 Africa's second World War. When you remember we call the 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.520 Congo War the Africa's First World War some years back, 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:45.400 indicating that you can actually have states from three continents Europe, 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:50.000 Middle East, Asia and Africa involved in the Editrea Ethiopian 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:54.800 conflict as proxies. It's very very serious. 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:59.079 And so how imminent could a potential conflict be Chete. 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:02.000 I think what we see now with the huge military 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:06.240 mobilization and redeployment of troops and heavy material up north, 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:10.640 is not by coincidence though to say the timing of it, 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.960 both the clear warning letters sent by Ethiopian government to 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:19.120 the UN and directly to Editrean government. But also we 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.480 have to keep in mind that with this we are 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:26.920 entering now the seasons of warring in Ethiopia. Traditionally it 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.920 is also a date coming up which is very symbolic 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.600 in Ethiopia. It's the second of March, which is the 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:39.120 Adva Day, when in eighteen ninety six the Ethiopian Imperial 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:44.520 Peasant Army managed to crush the invading Italian colonial army 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:49.800 up north in Adwa Intigrai in the heartland Ltigrai. And 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.000 we have seen earlier, for instance, during the nineteen ninety 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:57.040 eight two thousand war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, that the 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:02.240 major offensives from Ethiopia to reclaim what they said it 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.960 was the Etu Open territory started in the end of 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:09.120 February nineteen ninety nine, the operations Sunset, as it was called, 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:13.320 and then later the final offensive started then in March 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:17.479 two thousand to push back at a train and troops. 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.600 This is because of the historical significance of this time, 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.600 but also because of the seasonal changes. They have to 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.360 win the war before the rains start in early June, 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:34.120 so February, March April May is the key warring season 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:34.880 in the region. 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.760 Maybe finally, Simon, we've seen peace deals in the past, 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.720 as you know we started the podcast talking about them. 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.239 Is there any scope for a return to the negotiating 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.520 table or is it too far gone. 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:52.800 Well, as it stands, it doesn't look too likely. The 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.240 regional government in t gray at the moment, after the 0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:00.800 last war, it's factionalized, and there was a camp of 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:06.080 senior TPLF officials which aligned themselves more closely with the 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.480 federal Government of Ethiopia. And then there were more so 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:14.080 called hardline members of the TPLF which separated and did 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.080 not join that political force. And at the moment, the 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:22.920 pro government faction has seemingly lost power in Tigrai, many 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:25.640 of whom have left the Tigrai region gone to the 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:29.560 capital in Addis Ababa to take refuge, and it's the 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:33.320 hardliners who are in charge of there. It doesn't really 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:37.440 seem that the Vittoria agreement is something that's alive in kicking. 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:43.280 If anything, Ethiopia, through its foreign minister, has hinted that 0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:46.040 the terms of it are no longer valid. 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:47.880 You know, we have seen over the last couple of 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.680 weeks on a much more intense diplomatic activity Saudi Arabia. 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:55.400 For instance, both Foreign Minister Saudi Arabia recently visited ODIs 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:59.200 and his deputy visited Asmara, in talks to Tye to 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.560 meeting a conflict. Rugan, as you mentioned, was just there 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:07.240 in this a few days ago, also addressing the issue. 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:09.960 As far as I hear, he was not given any 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:13.240 guarantees by Abbi that a conflict would not break out. 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:18.040 AU had offered itself to mediate between Tigray and all this. 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.960 But the sources say that that Youpen government clearly told 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.920 a you to back off. This is an internal affair. 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.920 You shouldn't meddle into that one. The party which have 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:32.800 a potentially could have a leverages of course USA, but 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:37.320 it seems to be that the US engagement is just 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.200 anchored in the State Department. The White House is not 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:42.920 on board, and as long as Trump himself or his 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.680 special envoys are not tasked to address the issue, it 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:51.560 doesn't have the political clout to make an impact on 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:53.840 either of this. Mechila or Asmaro. 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:58.480 Thanks so much, Simon, and thanks again to Settil Tranvel 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:02.640 from Oslo New Universe Today College for walking us through 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.959 what is increasingly a growing concern in the Horn of Africa. 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.720 You can read Simon's report on Bloomberg platforms. Now we'll 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:15.720 put a link to that in the show. Notes. Here's 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.280 some of the other stories we are following across the 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:22.199 region this week. The Democratic Republic of Congo struck a 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:26.159 deal to tender copper from a major Glencore operation in 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.679 the country, expanding the state miners trading of a medal 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:34.680 that's key to the energy transition. And Nigeria's government will 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:37.520 channel more of the proceeds from its oil and gas 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:42.680 production directly into a central account, a move aimed at 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:47.399 boosting state finances. You can follow these stories across Bloomberg, 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.199 including the Next African Newsletter. Of course, we'll put a 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:55.800 link to that in the show notes. This program was 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:59.080 produced by Adrian Bradley and Tiba Adebaio. Don't forget to 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:02.800 follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts. 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.679 But for now I'm Jennifer's Abistoga. Thanks as always for listening.