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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington Ledger with us here on
Speaker 2: Balance of Power.
Speaker 3: There's still an Iranian.
Speaker 2: Proxy group that is on the attack against Israel. It's
Speaker 2: an important story that we want to get to here
Speaker 2: and one that hits the terminal with the headline Israel
Speaker 2: hits back at Hoothy's in Yemen after their slow escalation.
Speaker 2: This is something that may not have been on your
Speaker 2: radar over the holiday, but Houthis have been shelling Israel
Speaker 2: from two thousand kilometers away and Israel is now responding
Speaker 2: airstrikes that we can confirm hit rebel targets in the
Speaker 2: capital of Sana, including the airport, in a power station,
Speaker 2: and it's the capital of Yemen. And something that we
Speaker 2: want to talk about with former Ambassador James Jeffrey back
Speaker 2: with us here on the broadcast. Former US Ambassador to
Speaker 2: Iraq and Turkey. Not sure of the Wilson Center Middle
Speaker 2: East Program. Mister ambassador, it's great to see you here.
Speaker 2: Is this just noise or the start of something new?
Speaker 4: Joe, thanks for having me on. And this is a
Speaker 4: continuation of what has been a region wide walk between
Speaker 4: Irean and its various proxies and allies. The h group
Speaker 4: you can call them, Hamas, Isbela, the Hoodies against Israel,
Speaker 4: a reluctant but extremely important supporter the United States, and
Speaker 4: bits and pieces of other Arab states and Europeans, particularly
Speaker 4: against the Hoodies. The last man standing, so to speak,
Speaker 4: right now, is the Hoodies. Irean has lost its missile deterrent.
Speaker 4: The Israelis handle it well and struck back. Hod Bela
Speaker 4: has excuse me, I sued for a sea spia Hamas.
Speaker 4: It's all that wiped out. But the Israelis and the
Speaker 4: international community still is having to deal with the Hoodies, who,
Speaker 4: besides shelling Israel with these long range ballistic missiles, are
Speaker 4: also shutting down international sea traffic and the rid Sea.
Speaker 4: This has a significant impact on everything.
Speaker 2: Well, we've talked about the impacts on shipping quite a
Speaker 2: bit here, Ambassador, and I know that there were greater
Speaker 2: concerns a couple of months ago. As attention returns to
Speaker 2: Hoothi's now the impact on shipping and of course the
Speaker 2: attacks against Israel. Is this going to be the last
Speaker 2: piece to falk and Israel cut off this group from Iran.
Speaker 4: The Hoodies have been very, very hard to shut down.
Speaker 4: The United States tried half heartedly, basically by intercepting missiles
Speaker 4: fight at ships, but that wasn't successful in the Red
Speaker 4: Sea and it certainly hasn't deterred them. Israel can take
Speaker 4: out capabilities, but as long as the Hoodies can get
Speaker 4: additional supplies from Iran, particularly missile components, now they can.
Speaker 5: Keep this up.
Speaker 4: Israel has to weigh a decision whether to hold Iran
Speaker 4: responsible for what one of its proxies is doing. I
Speaker 4: think that Israel will eventually decide if the Hoodies don't
Speaker 4: shut this thing down, to go after Iran.
Speaker 3: Ambassador.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about what's happening in Ukraine,
Speaker 2: where it was a deadly Christmas for some Ukrainians. Russia
Speaker 2: directed more than seventy crews in ballistic missiles and one
Speaker 2: hundred strike drones against the country in Christmas Day, strikes
Speaker 2: on the company's the country's energy infrastructure. We've seen this,
Speaker 2: of course over the past couple of winters. Vlatimer Putin
Speaker 2: is no stranger to using cold as a weapon. What
Speaker 2: are we going to see between now and January twentieth,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump takes office in Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Between now and then, we'll see the Russians inushing forward
Speaker 4: and I underline inching forward. On the ground, they're not
Speaker 4: doing all of that well, although they have plat superior
Speaker 4: human and material resources and continuing to strike sensitive parts
Speaker 4: of the Ukrainian infrastructure such as electricity, But none of
Speaker 4: this is going to change the outcome of the war.
Speaker 4: It is basically a stealmate. It is calling out for
Speaker 4: some kind of negotiation to try to freeze this conflict
Speaker 4: and bring this part of the world back to something
Speaker 4: like normal. So I think that some of what you're
Speaker 4: seeing is last minute pushing back and forth. The Russians
Speaker 4: believe that Donald Trump is going to push hard for
Speaker 4: some kind of settlement.
Speaker 3: He sure says he will.
Speaker 2: In that world, do you freeze the map where it
Speaker 2: is now? Does Ukraine lose the ground permanently that it
Speaker 2: has lost to Russia in this war?
Speaker 4: The best example that I can cite historic is the
Speaker 4: Korean War. We ended it with a stalemate in nineteen
Speaker 4: fifty three. The stillmate is still holding. South Korea never
Speaker 4: gave up its claim to those parts of Korea that
Speaker 4: are held by now the Kim Yonglan North Korean communist
Speaker 4: regime legally, but in practical terms thereon trying to take
Speaker 4: it back, and the American security commitment is only to
Speaker 4: those parts of Korea that the South Korean government controls.
Speaker 4: I imagine whatever we get in the end will begin
Speaker 4: with something like that. There'll be other issues concerning Russia
Speaker 4: and it's near abroad, NATO and how the basic major
Speaker 4: pillars of security in Europe are rearranged. But at the
Speaker 4: center of it will have to be some settlement in
Speaker 4: Ukraine that basically will freeze the conflict.
Speaker 2: There's been some disturbing reports that I'm sure you have
Speaker 2: heard about this Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft that crashed in Kazakhstan.
Speaker 2: Reports suggest that Russia Russia anti aircraft fire may have
Speaker 2: been the reason ambassador why that airplane went down. They've
Speaker 2: looked at damage to the aircraft, They've looked at footage
Speaker 2: of the crash. If this ends up being true, what
Speaker 2: should happen to Russia.
Speaker 4: Well, the problem is we have condemned Russia in so
Speaker 4: many ways. We have imposed so many sanctions on Russia.
Speaker 4: A Malaysian airplane full of holiday travelers from the Netherlands
Speaker 4: was shot down in twenty fourteen by it turns out
Speaker 4: Russian anti aircraft. This is nothing new. What's particularly troubling
Speaker 4: is it looks like after the plane was hit, it
Speaker 4: tried to make an emergency landing on Russian territory, and
Speaker 4: it was told to overfly the Caspian Sea to land
Speaker 4: in Kazakhstan. It actually almost made it, but clearly the
Speaker 4: intent was for it to crash at sea without any evidence.
Speaker 3: What should be the US posture on this.
Speaker 4: Well, again, the US has already condemned Russia from here
Speaker 4: to Sunday for its invasion of Ukraine and many other actions.
Speaker 4: This is simply another example of the behavior that everyone,
Speaker 4: including the new Trump administration, will have to recognize is
Speaker 4: unacceptable and needs to have a very strong response. Right now,
Speaker 4: we have a response, which is to stop the Russians
Speaker 4: and Ukraine. You saw we basically stopped the Russians in
Speaker 4: Syria and they're now all but out.
Speaker 2: Ambassador Jeffrey, we're hearing Donald Trump talk about the Panama Canal.
Speaker 2: He wants the US to have control over the canal
Speaker 2: once again, I guess, unless a new deal could be
Speaker 2: made with Panama. He wants to take Greenland into the Fold,
Speaker 2: which we've been hearing about as well. And I know
Speaker 2: that both of these might be with regard to Chinese
Speaker 2: influence around the globe. But as someone who actually worked
Speaker 2: as a diplomat in the first Trump administration, you were
Speaker 2: Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Special Envoy to the Global
Speaker 2: Coalition to Defeat isis what is it like to be
Speaker 2: a diplomat under a Trump administration without always knowing what
Speaker 2: the go forward is going to be when you get
Speaker 2: on an airplane to go talk with someone abroad.
Speaker 4: It has its charms and it has its disadvantages as well.
Speaker 4: One thing is that people take Donald Trump very seriously.
Speaker 4: They saw what happened to cost some solimione.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 4: Believe me, however much Americans may may not have responded,
Speaker 4: dictate us out of that picture of a bleeding Trump
Speaker 4: pumping his fist into the sky after he was shot,
Speaker 4: and they see it as somebody they don't want to
Speaker 4: mess with that's actually good if you're covering out diplomatic instructions.
Speaker 4: The problem is the instructions often change, but the underlying
Speaker 4: policies usually do not that I'm wandering stressed. Trump tries
Speaker 4: to get headlines, he tries to shock people, he tries
Speaker 4: to shake things up, but in the end, we were
Speaker 4: carrying out policies not all of that different from those
Speaker 4: that the Biden administration continued to its credit.
Speaker 2: How about that in our remaining moment, then do you
Speaker 2: take him seriously on Greenland and Panama?
Speaker 4: I take seriously that he wants a farm or a
Speaker 4: sort of United States that will push transactionally for its
Speaker 4: advantage around the world, and everybody needs to be on
Speaker 4: notice for that. And there's nothing like threatening to seize
Speaker 4: Panama or seize Greenland to get people unnoticed. But no,
Speaker 4: neither of these things are going to happen.
Speaker 2: From someone who knows James Jeffrey is great to see you, sir.
Speaker 2: I hope you had a great Christmas and happy New
Speaker 2: Year to you. The former Ambassador James Jeffrey, former US
Speaker 2: Ambassador to Iraq in Turkey. He's now chair of the
Speaker 2: Wilson Center Middle East Program.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Sean caston the Democratic Congressman from Illinois shares part of Chicago.
Speaker 2: He was with us at the DNC and Congressman, it's
Speaker 2: great to see you here. I hope you had a
Speaker 2: great holiday. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I
Speaker 2: have a lot of questions for you because you've been
Speaker 2: a busy guy lately with regard to government funding, with
Speaker 2: regard to the Ethics Committee report in the back gates.
Speaker 2: But I want to start with you on this issue
Speaker 2: that we're talking about now. When you go to Chicago
Speaker 2: dot gov, your town says the city is shouldered the
Speaker 2: responsibility of caring for more than forty nine thousand immigrants
Speaker 2: new arrivals seeking asylum. Many flown to Chicago from states
Speaker 2: like Texas. What will happen to them when Donald Trump
Speaker 2: takes office?
Speaker 5: Well, it's important to understand where these folks come from.
Speaker 5: There were you know there were a surge of immigrants
Speaker 5: when Greg Abbott was bussing people up from Texas, but
Speaker 5: if you look nationally in chicago's no different. The overwhelming
Speaker 5: majority of the undocumented folks in our country are not
Speaker 5: people who snuck across the border, no matter how many
Speaker 5: how much we might like to sort of fall for
Speaker 5: that lazy stereotype. They're people who came here legally and
Speaker 5: overstate a visa. Maybe it's a student who studied here,
Speaker 5: Maybe they fell in love while they were studying here,
Speaker 5: it had a child. They're people who had temporary work
Speaker 5: visas and then the temporary work visas weren't renewed in
Speaker 5: many cases the prior guestment. Maybe they're less so in Chicago,
Speaker 5: but certainly downstate Illinois. They're farm workers so we depend
Speaker 5: on to grow our food. But our programs have not
Speaker 5: provided support for these people. So to tell those people,
Speaker 5: you know, the average undocumented person in this country has
Speaker 5: been here for twelve years, and again most of that
Speaker 5: is visa overstays. To tell these people who are contributing
Speaker 5: to America, who are paying taxes, who in many cases
Speaker 5: may be married or living with American citizens that were
Speaker 5: going to break up your family. I mean, you could
Speaker 5: not be more anti family than that. And it's creating
Speaker 5: a lot of nervousness all across the country, not just
Speaker 5: in Chicago.
Speaker 2: Well, so what will be Democrats posture on the issue
Speaker 2: of Dreamers? Then you're describing some of them in this conversation.
Speaker 2: Congress been knowing that Republicans were elected in part Donald
Speaker 2: Trump elected in part due to his approach to the border.
Speaker 2: Dreamers weren't even mentioned in the Senate deal on the
Speaker 2: border that never, of course, became law earlier this year,
Speaker 2: one that Donald Trump did not want to see passed.
Speaker 2: Will they be included in this debate in the new Congress?
Speaker 5: Well, let me speak to this from the perspective of
Speaker 5: the House. Yes, Donald Trump won the election. The House
Speaker 5: can seats. We picked up two seats in the last election.
Speaker 5: And so you've got a lot of people on my
Speaker 5: side of the aisle who are pretty contident that that
Speaker 5: people liked what we were selling. And we are in
Speaker 5: a rapidly growing economy. I have yet to meet an
Speaker 5: employer in the last three years who wasn't saying we
Speaker 5: have a real problem finding qualified people. The CBO said
Speaker 5: that part of the reason why inflation in the United
Speaker 5: States came down so much faster than other countries is
Speaker 5: because we have had a growth in net immigration to
Speaker 5: this country. So if you want inflation to be down,
Speaker 5: if you want to make sure that employers can find workers,
Speaker 5: we need to make sure that we have a humane,
Speaker 5: robust immigration system that continues to attract the best and brightest.
Speaker 5: And what I think all of us are telling our
Speaker 5: Republican colleagues is to go read Ronald Reagan's farewell speech.
Speaker 5: You said that I've always seen America is a great,
Speaker 5: shining city on a hill, and if it must have walls,
Speaker 5: make sure it has doors and windows so that those
Speaker 5: with the means and ability can come inside. Yeah, that's
Speaker 5: the message we need to remind people of because that's
Speaker 5: the only thing that has ever really made America great.
Speaker 2: This is a conversation that will clearly continue in the
Speaker 2: new Congress, as will be the one about government funding. Here,
Speaker 2: you barely got this done to avoid a Christmas shutdown, Congressman.
Speaker 2: It was, of course, late Friday, the Continuing Resolution was
Speaker 2: passed to fund the government through the fourteenth of March.
Speaker 2: What happens on March fifteenth, when this resolution has expired.
Speaker 5: You know, I joked with one of my Republican colleagues
Speaker 5: in the elevator. He said, he said, what are we
Speaker 5: doing here today? And I said, well, that can doesn't
Speaker 5: kick itself down the road. That's why we had to
Speaker 5: be here today. And it's sort of funny, but it's
Speaker 5: also not funny, right because the over the last two
Speaker 5: years of Republican control in Congress, they've never really managed
Speaker 5: to put together an appropriations package other than one where
Speaker 5: the terms were dictated by the Democrats, either through a
Speaker 5: continuing resolution that the Democrats carried across the line, or
Speaker 5: through the deal that mcarthy negotiated with Biden that essentially
Speaker 5: locked in the funding levels we had set in the
Speaker 5: last term with some minor adjustments. And so the question
Speaker 5: will be, with a much thinner Republican majority, can they
Speaker 5: get online between their sort of extreme right wing that
Speaker 5: would would happily shut the government down and wants to
Speaker 5: massively cut government services and they're they're more moderate and
Speaker 5: in many cases more numerous reasonable wing who has pose
Speaker 5: those tensions, and that fight has bedeviled the Republican caucus
Speaker 5: for this whole term. I think you'll continue to find
Speaker 5: that Democrats are willing to work constructively with those Republicans
Speaker 5: on a bipartisan basis as we have, but we'll have
Speaker 5: to see what they bring together. There's you know, I
Speaker 5: like to remind people that there were two fist fights
Speaker 5: in the House this last term. They all involved Republicans,
Speaker 5: and trying to figure out how they're going to get
Speaker 5: along together is going to be is going to be
Speaker 5: a challenge for this next term, at least in the House.
Speaker 2: Well, when we consider what was left out, and you know,
Speaker 2: I know a lot of Democrats were heartened to see
Speaker 2: the request for emergency funding for hurricane relief put back in,
Speaker 2: but we didn't see year round sale of E fifteen gasoline,
Speaker 2: the crackdown on PBMs that we heard about, also restrictions
Speaker 2: on investments in China. Congressmen, some Democrats like Rosa de Laurel,
Speaker 2: like Jim McGovern of Massachusetts said that's the real reason
Speaker 2: Elon Musk opposed this because of the amount of business
Speaker 2: that he does in China through Tesla and other entities.
Speaker 3: Do you agree.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of smoke there, you know, whether there's fire.
Speaker 5: I think we need to do some more investigating, but
Speaker 5: that you know, I serve on the Financial Services Committee,
Speaker 5: and Patrick Mchennery and Andy Barr were really great sponsors
Speaker 5: figuring out how to manage that outbound investment. There's a
Speaker 5: real concern on the Republican side of the aisle with
Speaker 5: what we are doing to send US technology to our
Speaker 5: adversaries and how are we controlling that, especially technology that
Speaker 5: has national security implications. And yes, there is huge concern
Speaker 5: that mister Musk weighed in so heavily against that, and
Speaker 5: I would you know, I would hope that the fact
Speaker 5: that there was such a bipartisan support for that provision
Speaker 5: will also lead to some bipartisan oversight support to ask
Speaker 5: some questions understand what's going on there. But yes, it
Speaker 5: is a it's concerning. We spend so much time in
Speaker 5: classified and unclassified settings trying to track where US generated
Speaker 5: IP is going, and I'd rather not get in a
Speaker 5: fight with the White House about whether we should give
Speaker 5: that intellectual property to our adversaries.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you last time you were with us, Congressman,
Speaker 2: you were about to go to the floor of the
Speaker 2: House with the privileged resolution to force the release of
Speaker 2: the Ethics Committee report into Now former Congressman Matt Gates.
Speaker 2: That report has been released. It came out Monday morning,
Speaker 2: and it is quite a salacious read. I can't say
Speaker 2: some of this stuff even on the air. As I
Speaker 2: read from the report, Gates is now threatening to show
Speaker 2: up next week to claim the seat for which he
Speaker 2: was elected. If that happens, and I don't know if
Speaker 2: you're hearing anything about this congressman, should he be sworn in.
Speaker 5: Gates doesn't have that option. Gates formally submitted his notice
Speaker 5: not to run in one hundred and nineteenth Congress we
Speaker 5: call Ron DeSantis initiated the special election so that they
Speaker 5: can go through and hold that. The deadline to file
Speaker 5: to run that election has passed and they're printing ballots.
Speaker 5: So I mean, Matt Gates is trying to get on
Speaker 5: the news given as you mentioned, the salacious details in
Speaker 5: that report. If I were Matt Gates issues, I would
Speaker 5: be trying to keep a lower profile and not have
Speaker 5: people looking in to find out that you know, he
Speaker 5: had you know, he paid for sex with seventeen year
Speaker 5: old girls. So if people want to talk about that,
Speaker 5: we'll talk about that. But he does not have a
Speaker 5: way to become a member of the next Congress. He
Speaker 5: just has a way to talk and get on television.
Speaker 2: You must be glad that it's been released.
Speaker 3: Now that it's public.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think glad is probably the wrong word.
Speaker 5: I'm glad that the Ethics Committee stood up for ethics
Speaker 5: in Congress. I'm glad that, you know, we're hearing that
Speaker 5: at least two Republicans on the Ethics Committe voted to
Speaker 5: release that. And it's not because we're trying to, you know,
Speaker 5: hurt one of our former colleagues. It's because the House
Speaker 5: has to comport itself in an ethical way that attracts
Speaker 5: the respect of the American people, regardless of how they vote.
Speaker 5: And when we hold ourselves accountable, when we hold members
Speaker 5: accountable for these sorts of actions, we base sickly send
Speaker 5: a message to the American people that we care about
Speaker 5: this institution and we love this institution. And that's the
Speaker 5: important thing of releasing this group.
Speaker 2: It's great to have you today, Congressman. I hope you
Speaker 2: had a great holiday. Merry Christmas and happy Hanukkah to
Speaker 2: all of your constituents in the Chicago area.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: We wanted to spend some time with Adam Hodge to
Speaker 2: talk about the legacy left and potentially work that remains Hereies,
Speaker 2: managing director at Bully Pulpit International, former official in the
Speaker 2: Biden White House.
Speaker 3: Adam, it's great to see you. I hope you had a
Speaker 3: great Christmas. I did have a good. Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 7: I'm a bit jealous of Biden. I'm born and raised
Speaker 7: in Saint Croix.
Speaker 3: Was Oh my god, jealous.
Speaker 7: My sisters are good.
Speaker 3: Where did you go home? I should should have.
Speaker 2: This is a a tradition for them, much like going
Speaker 2: to Nantucket on Thanksgiving. This tradition for the Bidens. What's
Speaker 2: the conversation at the family table this weekend.
Speaker 7: I gotta imagine it's a bit of nostalgia, thinking like
Speaker 7: this is the last trip that they'll do as president.
Speaker 7: Down there, it's a reminder if they do it every year,
Speaker 7: just that the presidency is coming to an end.
Speaker 3: I think, look there, certainly it's a bittersweet end.
Speaker 7: Joe Biden ran for reelection at the beginning because he
Speaker 7: wanted to continue to serve. I think he felt he
Speaker 7: had more gas in the tank, that is, more things
Speaker 7: that he wanted to get done. Obviously didn't turn out
Speaker 7: that way, but I think he'll walk away with a
Speaker 7: bit of pride.
Speaker 3: In what he did accomplish.
Speaker 7: I mean some of the big things that they got done,
Speaker 7: whether it's the American Recovery Act, digging the country out
Speaker 7: of the pandemic, Inflation Production Act, the infrastructure Law, like
Speaker 7: the Chips and Science Act, those are hallmark legislation that
Speaker 7: will be tough to unravel, although you've heard the Trump
Speaker 7: administration think about doing some of that. But he'll hold
Speaker 7: his head high on some of those things, and also
Speaker 7: the things they've done to strengthen America's position around the world.
Speaker 7: He came to the defense of Ukraine, and while we
Speaker 7: saw the attacks over the holiday period Russia targeting specifically
Speaker 7: the energy sector, which.
Speaker 3: Is I mean just barbaric.
Speaker 7: Donald Trump, I mean, has threatened to walk away from
Speaker 7: some of those commitments, but Joe Biden can say, Look,
Speaker 7: NATO is bigger than it was when I took office.
Speaker 7: More countries are meeting the two percent GDP commitment to
Speaker 7: their own defense. A lot of that money actually is
Speaker 7: coming to buy American goods and American defense suppliers and
Speaker 7: getting shipped back to Europe. So he's got a strong
Speaker 7: record to hang his hat on. I think I hope
Speaker 7: he takes that away from the office, and I think
Speaker 7: you're right. It will be a bittersweet moment to watch
Speaker 7: Donald Trump take the of office, but he'll be there
Speaker 7: because he believes in democracy and the transfer of power.
Speaker 2: A lot to talk about Trump proofing as he heads
Speaker 2: out of the White House. Here to what extent can
Speaker 2: Joe Biden protect elements of the IRA? For instance, you
Speaker 2: mentioned in Structure and Chips will seem to be pretty
Speaker 2: popular on a bipartisan level. The IRA is the one
Speaker 2: that we hear about. Donald Trump wants to reverse many
Speaker 2: of the components of this loss, so.
Speaker 3: Does Mike Johnson.
Speaker 7: Well, but I think the key thing that we'll look
Speaker 7: at in the new Congress is they're going to try
Speaker 7: to extend the Trump tax cuts seventeen and we're talking
Speaker 7: of a four trillion dollar price tag by independent estimates,
Speaker 7: So they're going to look for other pay fors wherever
Speaker 7: they can find them. And some of the clean energy
Speaker 7: tax credits. You're talking three hundred and fifty billion dollars
Speaker 7: that are potentially a threat as they look for ways
Speaker 7: to fund the other tax cuts for corporations or wealthy individuals.
Speaker 3: So that's certainly.
Speaker 7: Something that I think people should be watching. Investors should
Speaker 7: be clearly keeping a close track on that because it's clearly.
Speaker 3: Going to be on the table.
Speaker 7: The thing that I'm conscious of, though, the Republican majority.
Speaker 3: Is so slim one maybe two.
Speaker 7: After some of the nominees get confirmed, and there are
Speaker 7: a lot of these projects that are in some of
Speaker 7: their districts that are and would be at threat if
Speaker 7: they cut some of that at funding. So it's going
Speaker 7: to be a really tough battle for them to kind
Speaker 7: of get through, and it's going to come thick and fast,
Speaker 7: especially with the ceiling also on.
Speaker 3: The table early in the new cast.
Speaker 2: It's going to be wild as we consider the future
Speaker 2: here with Adam Hodge and things that could have gone differently.
Speaker 2: You know, there's a big post mortem that happens after
Speaker 2: a loss like this. Even though he technically didn't lose
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump, he dropped out of the race. Do
Speaker 2: you believe this came down to inflation. If Joe Biden
Speaker 2: managed to lick inflation, if he managed to get prices lower,
Speaker 2: would it have been different.
Speaker 7: It's hard not take a stock of the broader geopolitical
Speaker 7: move I mean, incumbents, especially center left incumbents around the
Speaker 7: world coming out of the pandemic and the inflation and
Speaker 7: the supply chain crutch that.
Speaker 3: You see a global trend, a global trend.
Speaker 7: I mean the only incumbents across the world in Poland
Speaker 7: and Spain right and was just one example. We also
Speaker 7: had the lowest inflation rate of any major economy in
Speaker 7: the world. I mean, we had one of the more
Speaker 7: successful efforts to drive down inflation in the country, but
Speaker 7: there was definitely a palpable sense in the country that
Speaker 7: prices were too high, and it hurt incumbents around the world.
Speaker 7: So I think regardless of what Joe Biden tried to do,
Speaker 7: and they did a lot to get inflation from nine
Speaker 7: percent down to two percent two and a half percent,
Speaker 7: when come election day, that's you know, was still too
Speaker 7: much for people and it's a memory. But I think
Speaker 7: the question for the Trump administration coming in or do
Speaker 7: the policies sort of reverse some of that trend that
Speaker 7: we've seen, right, tariffs have a real threat to drive
Speaker 7: up inflation. You know, the bond prices are going to
Speaker 7: be looking at the cost of borrowing if the government
Speaker 7: takes on a whole lot more debt to pay for
Speaker 7: the tax cuts. That's there's all kinds of costs that
Speaker 7: could add to more a greater burden on the American taxpayer.
Speaker 7: So that's a real thing I think to be watching
Speaker 7: as we go in the new year, and Republicans are
Speaker 7: going to have to try to find a way to
Speaker 7: deal with some of those challenges, that's for sure. Democrats
Speaker 7: have been clear they're going to fight for the things
Speaker 7: that we believe, and I think there's an opportunity to
Speaker 7: unify around some of the opposition to those Trump policies
Speaker 7: in the new Congress.
Speaker 2: You've heard in this post mortem as well, a lot
Speaker 2: of Republican critics who accused Democrats of covering up Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's mental state, his mental acuity, his physical state.
Speaker 3: And I just wonder where you are.
Speaker 2: On this now that some time has passed since he
Speaker 2: dropped out and since the election. When you see Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: now you saw him, I think just last week as
Speaker 2: part of the Christmas celebration at the White House. Do
Speaker 2: you feel differently about that now? Do you think that
Speaker 2: he in fact did age precipitously through the year to
Speaker 2: be in a different place physically or mentally than he
Speaker 2: was when he.
Speaker 3: Said he was ready for another four years.
Speaker 7: I mean, there's no question that he's aged over the
Speaker 7: last couple of years.
Speaker 3: That's not really debatable.
Speaker 7: It's not like the president, though, was hiding he was
Speaker 7: president of the United States.
Speaker 3: Publicans.
Speaker 7: No, but he got a pool that's following everywhere he goes.
Speaker 7: Every time he stepped on and off air Force One had.
Speaker 7: You know, people looked at that. I mean, he would
Speaker 7: show up to events and speak and you saw him.
Speaker 7: It wasn't like he disappeared from the public eye, right.
Speaker 7: So I think it's a bit of Republicans playing games
Speaker 7: with him.
Speaker 3: And but I think you don't buy the cover up. No,
Speaker 3: I mean, he's the president.
Speaker 7: He's out in public, right, I mean, it's not like
Speaker 7: there's a cover up. And I think the thing I
Speaker 7: kept hearing when I was in the White House from
Speaker 7: people who come out of meetings, it was how hard
Speaker 7: he was on them, pushing him for them for answers
Speaker 7: or asking asking detailed, probing questions about issues. And you know,
Speaker 7: there's no question that physically getting moving around, he's had
Speaker 7: some struggles. But I think everybody can, like what I
Speaker 7: heard from people who were still in the White House recently,
Speaker 7: he's still asking those same tough questions. He's still probing
Speaker 7: and pushing them around.
Speaker 3: So I don't think.
Speaker 7: I don't buy this argument that there was some sort
Speaker 7: of cover up around his.
Speaker 3: Abilities to service.
Speaker 7: And nobody, the Vice President who's in all those meetings
Speaker 7: with him, said the same. That's what I believes he
Speaker 7: gonna do.
Speaker 2: Now, when you finish a job like this, he tend
Speaker 2: to go dark for a while, right, He's gonna try
Speaker 2: to relax, get some things done.
Speaker 3: Uh, he's an older man.
Speaker 2: I don't know how much time he has to enjoy retire.
Speaker 3: What does retirement look like for joke by everybody.
Speaker 7: Who said, you know, especially his kids and grandkids say
Speaker 7: like he burns up the phone call and then ipect.
Speaker 3: That's gonna continue.
Speaker 7: He's gonna he's gonna spend some time with his grandkids,
Speaker 7: like see his family. I mean, that's he's earned that, right.
Speaker 7: Maybe he'll write a book about his you know, his
Speaker 7: presidency and in the time, and I think there will
Speaker 7: be some insights.
Speaker 3: Does he speak politically and I'm sure he will.
Speaker 7: He will find opportunities and moments to weigh. And he
Speaker 7: saw Barack Obama after he left, after even Trump took office,
Speaker 7: he took some time, you know. And I think is
Speaker 7: the right thing to do to let the next generation of.
Speaker 3: Leaders step up.
Speaker 7: So, whether that's Keem, Jeffries and you know Schumer in
Speaker 7: the in the Senate, other Democrats around the country, giving
Speaker 7: them an opportunity to show and be a present a
Speaker 7: compelling vision for what the Democratic Party should be.
Speaker 3: I think is the right thing to do.
Speaker 7: Joe Biden is not going to be president again, that
Speaker 7: we should let the next generation of leaders could have
Speaker 7: take over, and King Jeffres in the House will be
Speaker 7: front and center in that fight and have a chance
Speaker 7: to present a unified, different message. And I think Democrats
Speaker 7: can take some stock. Trump's going to give us some opportunities,
Speaker 7: whether it's on immigration you were talking about last segment,
Speaker 7: whether it's on the tax cuts. There's gonna be a
Speaker 7: whole lot of issues where Democrats will have an opportunity
Speaker 7: to unify. And I think The key thing is how
Speaker 7: we pick and choose our battles and show the areas
Speaker 7: where we're fighting for working class people and less privileged
Speaker 7: and set up that clear contrast with President Trump. That
Speaker 7: to me seems like where you'll see Democrats try to
Speaker 7: go in the new Congress.
Speaker 2: We're out of time, but Democrats start running for the
Speaker 2: midterms starting next week, right.
Speaker 7: They will, certainly, But I think Democrats have to also
Speaker 7: think about where we go, not just the next cycle,
Speaker 7: but the next three cycles. We have to regain an
Speaker 7: ability to win seats across the country.
Speaker 3: That has to be paramount fascinating.
Speaker 2: Great to see you, Adam Hodge, Managing Director, Bully Pulpit International.
Speaker 2: Great to spend some time post holiday with you. Enjoy
Speaker 2: the rest of them in Happy New Year to you,
Speaker 2: of course, with us here in Washington, d C.
Speaker 3: Adam Hodge.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: As I mentioned, Trump two point zero the new administration
Speaker 2: January twentieth, but one that is already well in the works.
Speaker 2: Here there's news today, in fact, and it's the big
Speaker 2: talker in town here at the front page of the
Speaker 2: Washington Post about the Borders Are, which, of course is
Speaker 2: a position that does not require Senate confirmation because it's
Speaker 2: not an official cabinet role. Tom Holman, as we told
Speaker 2: you weeks ago, in that role, will have a lot
Speaker 2: to do with the initial stages of the Trump administration's
Speaker 2: approach to immigration, and news today that family detention will
Speaker 2: be back on the table. Holman telling the Washington Post
Speaker 2: that ICE will look to hold parents with children in
Speaker 2: soft sided tent structures similar to those used by the
Speaker 2: Border Patrol.
Speaker 3: When they have immigration surges.
Speaker 2: Authorities will once more put families with children in detention centers.
Speaker 3: Says the Borders Are.
Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation with our signature panel.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno on the Thursday edition. She,
Speaker 2: of course, Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital.
Speaker 2: This may not sound surprising to you. Rick it would
Speaker 2: be consistent with what we saw in the first Trump administration,
Speaker 2: but counter to some of the more recent remarks he's
Speaker 2: made about working with Democrats, for instance, when it comes
Speaker 2: to Dreamers and some of the other outreach that we've heard.
Speaker 2: How do you think this will play out here with
Speaker 2: an official who's not in fact confirmed by the Senate,
Speaker 2: but could start working immediately when the president is sworn in.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, first of all, we know Donald Trump loves
Speaker 6: to work through zurs, right, and Fulman is just a
Speaker 6: good example of someone who won't have any you know,
Speaker 6: sort of official role in a cabinet agency, but use
Speaker 6: the power of the White House, which will be all
Speaker 6: powerful in this administration, to dictate policy. Of course, we
Speaker 6: see other people like Doug Burgham or a governor who's
Speaker 6: going to be the Interior or secretary, but his real
Speaker 6: role is going to be the energies are so he's
Speaker 6: tacked that on. And of course nobody can discount Elon Musk,
Speaker 6: who in essence is the budgets are right and he
Speaker 6: will he will oversee the DOGE program. So these are
Speaker 6: all extra curricular government officials who will have amazing amount
Speaker 6: of power. And if you believe what Donald Trump has said,
Speaker 6: as you mentioned, Joe, then you got to believe there's
Speaker 6: going to be more of a comprehensive approach to immigration reform.
Speaker 6: And I think that's what a lot of people expect
Speaker 6: to see happening in this first turn of the first Congress,
Speaker 6: now one hundred and nineteenth Congress, and that is a
Speaker 6: big bill that's going to incorporate a lot of rules changes,
Speaker 6: a lot of budgetary impact to really solidify Donald Trump's
Speaker 6: stamp on immigration policy. Things he knew he wanted to
Speaker 6: do and did before that got rejected in the Biden administration,
Speaker 6: and then new things that he wished he'd done that
Speaker 6: he just didn't get done in his first administration. And
Speaker 6: there will be room for a conversation about dreamers and
Speaker 6: other Democratic priorities in order to build a coalition to
Speaker 6: get that bill through.
Speaker 2: Jennie Joe Biden ended Family to ten in twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2: What does this headline mean today?
Speaker 8: You know, we've heard Tom Holman just over the last
Speaker 8: few days commenting on this horrific act of violence, this
Speaker 8: murder of this homeless woman in the New York City subway.
Speaker 8: She was sleeping, an illegal immigrant doused her and set
Speaker 8: her on fire, killing her. And Tom Holman spoke out
Speaker 8: about that, as did many people, of the horror of that,
Speaker 8: and said that this is because the Biden administration has
Speaker 8: not been tough enough on the border and he is
Speaker 8: going to correct that with Donald Trump. And that is
Speaker 8: what you know, seventy four seventy five million people voted
Speaker 8: for Donald Trump. For the problem when he moves to
Speaker 8: these kinds of policies that the Post is reporting on
Speaker 8: today is the question, does Homan and Donald Trump do
Speaker 8: they overread Donald Trump's mandate? You know, these seventy four million,
Speaker 8: seventy five million voted for security at the border, for
Speaker 8: a sound immigration policy. But even Donald Trump himself on
Speaker 8: Meet the Press the other day said he knows how
Speaker 8: horrific some of this video and some of these pictures
Speaker 8: will be when you are dealing children and families. And
Speaker 8: that is going to be the big test here. Do this,
Speaker 8: you know, accepting the seventeen million who voted in the
Speaker 8: primary for him, do the other you know, fifty million
Speaker 8: people stick with him or does is this a bridge
Speaker 8: too far? And that's something I think we're going to
Speaker 8: have to wait and see.
Speaker 2: On well onto mass deportations here home and telling the
Speaker 2: post Rick that the government will not hesitate. He says,
Speaker 2: to deport parents who are in the country illegally, even
Speaker 2: if they have young US born children. Interesting quote, he said,
Speaker 2: here's the issue. Quote you knew you were in the
Speaker 2: country illegally and chose to have a child, so you
Speaker 2: put your family in that position unquote. Does that resonate
Speaker 2: with American voters? Is that how Americans feel?
Speaker 6: I think it's going to get tricky in this category.
Speaker 6: Americans are relying compassionate, and I think if these cases
Speaker 6: and they will go to court, courts will also look
Speaker 6: on it in a more compassionate way and look on
Speaker 6: it based on the judicial history. And the judicial history
Speaker 6: of this is that these are citizens in the United
Speaker 6: States and they turn they turn a blind eye to
Speaker 6: the immigration rules when it comes to a minor who's
Speaker 6: an American citizen needing their parents.
Speaker 3: So we'll see.
Speaker 6: My suspicion is based on what Donald Trump has said
Speaker 6: repeatedly that he's going to go after the hardened criminals.
Speaker 6: These aren't the ones leaving behind naturalized citizens. They're the
Speaker 6: ones who are either one already serving time, have been
Speaker 6: captured or to the police have been after for some time,
Speaker 6: so rounding them up will be no easy task. But
Speaker 6: if that is a top priority, he will engenerate great
Speaker 6: support amongst the American public for rounding these gang members
Speaker 6: up and these criminal hardened criminals and getting out of
Speaker 6: our country. After that, I would suspect you're going to
Speaker 6: get into cases such as what you just described, which is,
Speaker 6: you know, families who came to the country illegally gave
Speaker 6: birth to a naturalized citizen, and that's when it really
Speaker 6: gets complicated. But I think the American public is about compassion,
Speaker 6: not about persecution, and I think you're going to see
Speaker 6: a bit of a change in the process at that point.
Speaker 2: Talk to us about this, genie. Do you believe that
Speaker 2: you just mentioned it yourself. Donald Trump knows what the
Speaker 2: images will do, he knows how this will play in
Speaker 2: the news. But you've got Tom Holman saying, Hey, you
Speaker 2: knew you were here illegally, you chose to have a child.
Speaker 2: That's on you.
Speaker 8: Yeah. I think we probably see an EO on birthrate
Speaker 8: citizenship that then goes into the courts, and the courts
Speaker 8: will have to make that determination. That's why the Biden administration,
Speaker 8: the Democrats are working so furiously to get these nominees
Speaker 8: to the federal bench through so much of this fight
Speaker 8: is going to be in the courts. But Donald Trump
Speaker 8: knows better than anybody the images will play out on
Speaker 8: social media on television. When you talk about a young
Speaker 8: child who is here innocently and there is either a
Speaker 8: separation from family parents otherwise, or they are deported to
Speaker 8: a place they've never been and not known, you are
Speaker 8: going to see a furious reaction from the American public.
Speaker 8: And that again is where this question of does Donald
Speaker 8: Trump overread his mandate? The mandate is for security. The
Speaker 8: mandate is to make sure we have a sound immigration policy.
Speaker 8: It is not to do harm to innocent people who
Speaker 8: are here through whatever means. And that's where we heard
Speaker 8: Donald Trump quite frankly talking about DACA. There has got
Speaker 8: to be a way. And then of course there is
Speaker 8: the economic aspect of this doing all of this billions
Speaker 8: of dollars. Where is that money coming from? He has
Speaker 8: not talked about that yet. So all of that makes
Speaker 8: the idea that they're going to go that far that
Speaker 8: much more difficult for me.
Speaker 2: Please, we're still going to have a lot to figure
Speaker 2: out in the new year with Genie Shanzo and Rick Davis.
Speaker 3: Delighted to have you both with us.
Speaker 2: Thank you, as always our signature panel here on Balance
Speaker 2: of Power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify.
Speaker 3: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 2: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC
Speaker 2: at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.