1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:14,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Ammocarplay and then roud Otto with the 4 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington Ledger with us here on 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: Balance of Power. 8 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 3: There's still an Iranian. 9 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: Proxy group that is on the attack against Israel. It's 10 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 2: an important story that we want to get to here 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: and one that hits the terminal with the headline Israel 12 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 2: hits back at Hoothy's in Yemen after their slow escalation. 13 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: This is something that may not have been on your 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: radar over the holiday, but Houthis have been shelling Israel 15 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: from two thousand kilometers away and Israel is now responding 16 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 2: airstrikes that we can confirm hit rebel targets in the 17 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: capital of Sana, including the airport, in a power station, 18 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 2: and it's the capital of Yemen. And something that we 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: want to talk about with former Ambassador James Jeffrey back 20 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: with us here on the broadcast. Former US Ambassador to 21 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 2: Iraq and Turkey. Not sure of the Wilson Center Middle 22 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 2: East Program. Mister ambassador, it's great to see you here. 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: Is this just noise or the start of something new? 24 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 4: Joe, thanks for having me on. And this is a 25 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 4: continuation of what has been a region wide walk between 26 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 4: Irean and its various proxies and allies. The h group 27 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 4: you can call them, Hamas, Isbela, the Hoodies against Israel, 28 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 4: a reluctant but extremely important supporter the United States, and 29 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 4: bits and pieces of other Arab states and Europeans, particularly 30 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 4: against the Hoodies. The last man standing, so to speak, 31 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 4: right now, is the Hoodies. Irean has lost its missile deterrent. 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 4: The Israelis handle it well and struck back. Hod Bela 33 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 4: has excuse me, I sued for a sea spia Hamas. 34 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 4: It's all that wiped out. But the Israelis and the 35 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 4: international community still is having to deal with the Hoodies, who, 36 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 4: besides shelling Israel with these long range ballistic missiles, are 37 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:20,239 Speaker 4: also shutting down international sea traffic and the rid Sea. 38 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 4: This has a significant impact on everything. 39 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 2: Well, we've talked about the impacts on shipping quite a 40 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 2: bit here, Ambassador, and I know that there were greater 41 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 2: concerns a couple of months ago. As attention returns to 42 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 2: Hoothi's now the impact on shipping and of course the 43 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 2: attacks against Israel. Is this going to be the last 44 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 2: piece to falk and Israel cut off this group from Iran. 45 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 4: The Hoodies have been very, very hard to shut down. 46 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 4: The United States tried half heartedly, basically by intercepting missiles 47 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 4: fight at ships, but that wasn't successful in the Red 48 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 4: Sea and it certainly hasn't deterred them. Israel can take 49 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 4: out capabilities, but as long as the Hoodies can get 50 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 4: additional supplies from Iran, particularly missile components, now they can. 51 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 5: Keep this up. 52 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 4: Israel has to weigh a decision whether to hold Iran 53 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 4: responsible for what one of its proxies is doing. I 54 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 4: think that Israel will eventually decide if the Hoodies don't 55 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 4: shut this thing down, to go after Iran. 56 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 3: Ambassador. 57 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about what's happening in Ukraine, 58 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: where it was a deadly Christmas for some Ukrainians. Russia 59 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: directed more than seventy crews in ballistic missiles and one 60 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 2: hundred strike drones against the country in Christmas Day, strikes 61 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 2: on the company's the country's energy infrastructure. We've seen this, 62 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 2: of course over the past couple of winters. Vlatimer Putin 63 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: is no stranger to using cold as a weapon. What 64 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 2: are we going to see between now and January twentieth, 65 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump takes office in Ukraine. 66 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: Between now and then, we'll see the Russians inushing forward 67 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 4: and I underline inching forward. On the ground, they're not 68 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 4: doing all of that well, although they have plat superior 69 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 4: human and material resources and continuing to strike sensitive parts 70 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 4: of the Ukrainian infrastructure such as electricity, But none of 71 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 4: this is going to change the outcome of the war. 72 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 4: It is basically a stealmate. It is calling out for 73 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 4: some kind of negotiation to try to freeze this conflict 74 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 4: and bring this part of the world back to something 75 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 4: like normal. So I think that some of what you're 76 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 4: seeing is last minute pushing back and forth. The Russians 77 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 4: believe that Donald Trump is going to push hard for 78 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 4: some kind of settlement. 79 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 3: He sure says he will. 80 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 2: In that world, do you freeze the map where it 81 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 2: is now? Does Ukraine lose the ground permanently that it 82 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 2: has lost to Russia in this war? 83 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 4: The best example that I can cite historic is the 84 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 4: Korean War. We ended it with a stalemate in nineteen 85 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 4: fifty three. The stillmate is still holding. South Korea never 86 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 4: gave up its claim to those parts of Korea that 87 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 4: are held by now the Kim Yonglan North Korean communist 88 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 4: regime legally, but in practical terms thereon trying to take 89 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 4: it back, and the American security commitment is only to 90 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 4: those parts of Korea that the South Korean government controls. 91 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 4: I imagine whatever we get in the end will begin 92 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 4: with something like that. There'll be other issues concerning Russia 93 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 4: and it's near abroad, NATO and how the basic major 94 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 4: pillars of security in Europe are rearranged. But at the 95 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 4: center of it will have to be some settlement in 96 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 4: Ukraine that basically will freeze the conflict. 97 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,919 Speaker 2: There's been some disturbing reports that I'm sure you have 98 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 2: heard about this Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft that crashed in Kazakhstan. 99 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 2: Reports suggest that Russia Russia anti aircraft fire may have 100 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: been the reason ambassador why that airplane went down. They've 101 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 2: looked at damage to the aircraft, They've looked at footage 102 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 2: of the crash. If this ends up being true, what 103 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 2: should happen to Russia. 104 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 4: Well, the problem is we have condemned Russia in so 105 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 4: many ways. We have imposed so many sanctions on Russia. 106 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 4: A Malaysian airplane full of holiday travelers from the Netherlands 107 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 4: was shot down in twenty fourteen by it turns out 108 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 4: Russian anti aircraft. This is nothing new. What's particularly troubling 109 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 4: is it looks like after the plane was hit, it 110 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 4: tried to make an emergency landing on Russian territory, and 111 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 4: it was told to overfly the Caspian Sea to land 112 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 4: in Kazakhstan. It actually almost made it, but clearly the 113 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 4: intent was for it to crash at sea without any evidence. 114 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 3: What should be the US posture on this. 115 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 4: Well, again, the US has already condemned Russia from here 116 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 4: to Sunday for its invasion of Ukraine and many other actions. 117 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 4: This is simply another example of the behavior that everyone, 118 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 4: including the new Trump administration, will have to recognize is 119 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 4: unacceptable and needs to have a very strong response. Right now, 120 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 4: we have a response, which is to stop the Russians 121 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 4: and Ukraine. You saw we basically stopped the Russians in 122 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 4: Syria and they're now all but out. 123 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: Ambassador Jeffrey, we're hearing Donald Trump talk about the Panama Canal. 124 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 2: He wants the US to have control over the canal 125 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 2: once again, I guess, unless a new deal could be 126 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: made with Panama. He wants to take Greenland into the Fold, 127 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 2: which we've been hearing about as well. And I know 128 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 2: that both of these might be with regard to Chinese 129 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 2: influence around the globe. But as someone who actually worked 130 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 2: as a diplomat in the first Trump administration, you were 131 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 2: Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Special Envoy to the Global 132 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: Coalition to Defeat isis what is it like to be 133 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 2: a diplomat under a Trump administration without always knowing what 134 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 2: the go forward is going to be when you get 135 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 2: on an airplane to go talk with someone abroad. 136 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 4: It has its charms and it has its disadvantages as well. 137 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 4: One thing is that people take Donald Trump very seriously. 138 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 4: They saw what happened to cost some solimione. 139 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 6: You know. 140 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:39,599 Speaker 4: Believe me, however much Americans may may not have responded, 141 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 4: dictate us out of that picture of a bleeding Trump 142 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 4: pumping his fist into the sky after he was shot, 143 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 4: and they see it as somebody they don't want to 144 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 4: mess with that's actually good if you're covering out diplomatic instructions. 145 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 4: The problem is the instructions often change, but the underlying 146 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 4: policies usually do not that I'm wandering stressed. Trump tries 147 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 4: to get headlines, he tries to shock people, he tries 148 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 4: to shake things up, but in the end, we were 149 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 4: carrying out policies not all of that different from those 150 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 4: that the Biden administration continued to its credit. 151 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 2: How about that in our remaining moment, then do you 152 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 2: take him seriously on Greenland and Panama? 153 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 4: I take seriously that he wants a farm or a 154 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 4: sort of United States that will push transactionally for its 155 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 4: advantage around the world, and everybody needs to be on 156 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 4: notice for that. And there's nothing like threatening to seize 157 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 4: Panama or seize Greenland to get people unnoticed. But no, 158 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 4: neither of these things are going to happen. 159 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 2: From someone who knows James Jeffrey is great to see you, sir. 160 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 2: I hope you had a great Christmas and happy New 161 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 2: Year to you. The former Ambassador James Jeffrey, former US 162 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 2: Ambassador to Iraq in Turkey. He's now chair of the 163 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 2: Wilson Center Middle East Program. 164 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 165 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and n 166 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: Oh with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen 167 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 168 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: jo Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 169 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 2: Sean caston the Democratic Congressman from Illinois shares part of Chicago. 170 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 2: He was with us at the DNC and Congressman, it's 171 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 2: great to see you here. I hope you had a 172 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 2: great holiday. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I 173 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 2: have a lot of questions for you because you've been 174 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 2: a busy guy lately with regard to government funding, with 175 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 2: regard to the Ethics Committee report in the back gates. 176 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 2: But I want to start with you on this issue 177 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 2: that we're talking about now. When you go to Chicago 178 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,079 Speaker 2: dot gov, your town says the city is shouldered the 179 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 2: responsibility of caring for more than forty nine thousand immigrants 180 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 2: new arrivals seeking asylum. Many flown to Chicago from states 181 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 2: like Texas. What will happen to them when Donald Trump 182 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 2: takes office? 183 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 5: Well, it's important to understand where these folks come from. 184 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 5: There were you know there were a surge of immigrants 185 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 5: when Greg Abbott was bussing people up from Texas, but 186 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 5: if you look nationally in chicago's no different. The overwhelming 187 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 5: majority of the undocumented folks in our country are not 188 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 5: people who snuck across the border, no matter how many 189 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 5: how much we might like to sort of fall for 190 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 5: that lazy stereotype. They're people who came here legally and 191 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 5: overstate a visa. Maybe it's a student who studied here, 192 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:20,839 Speaker 5: Maybe they fell in love while they were studying here, 193 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 5: it had a child. They're people who had temporary work 194 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 5: visas and then the temporary work visas weren't renewed in 195 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 5: many cases the prior guestment. Maybe they're less so in Chicago, 196 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 5: but certainly downstate Illinois. They're farm workers so we depend 197 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 5: on to grow our food. But our programs have not 198 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 5: provided support for these people. So to tell those people, 199 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 5: you know, the average undocumented person in this country has 200 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 5: been here for twelve years, and again most of that 201 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 5: is visa overstays. To tell these people who are contributing 202 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 5: to America, who are paying taxes, who in many cases 203 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 5: may be married or living with American citizens that were 204 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 5: going to break up your family. I mean, you could 205 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 5: not be more anti family than that. And it's creating 206 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 5: a lot of nervousness all across the country, not just 207 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 5: in Chicago. 208 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,959 Speaker 2: Well, so what will be Democrats posture on the issue 209 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 2: of Dreamers? Then you're describing some of them in this conversation. 210 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 2: Congress been knowing that Republicans were elected in part Donald 211 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 2: Trump elected in part due to his approach to the border. 212 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 2: Dreamers weren't even mentioned in the Senate deal on the 213 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 2: border that never, of course, became law earlier this year, 214 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 2: one that Donald Trump did not want to see passed. 215 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: Will they be included in this debate in the new Congress? 216 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 5: Well, let me speak to this from the perspective of 217 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 5: the House. Yes, Donald Trump won the election. The House 218 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 5: can seats. We picked up two seats in the last election. 219 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 5: And so you've got a lot of people on my 220 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 5: side of the aisle who are pretty contident that that 221 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 5: people liked what we were selling. And we are in 222 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 5: a rapidly growing economy. I have yet to meet an 223 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 5: employer in the last three years who wasn't saying we 224 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 5: have a real problem finding qualified people. The CBO said 225 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 5: that part of the reason why inflation in the United 226 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 5: States came down so much faster than other countries is 227 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 5: because we have had a growth in net immigration to 228 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 5: this country. So if you want inflation to be down, 229 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 5: if you want to make sure that employers can find workers, 230 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 5: we need to make sure that we have a humane, 231 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 5: robust immigration system that continues to attract the best and brightest. 232 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 5: And what I think all of us are telling our 233 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 5: Republican colleagues is to go read Ronald Reagan's farewell speech. 234 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 5: You said that I've always seen America is a great, 235 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 5: shining city on a hill, and if it must have walls, 236 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 5: make sure it has doors and windows so that those 237 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 5: with the means and ability can come inside. Yeah, that's 238 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 5: the message we need to remind people of because that's 239 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 5: the only thing that has ever really made America great. 240 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 2: This is a conversation that will clearly continue in the 241 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 2: new Congress, as will be the one about government funding. Here, 242 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,959 Speaker 2: you barely got this done to avoid a Christmas shutdown, Congressman. 243 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 2: It was, of course, late Friday, the Continuing Resolution was 244 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 2: passed to fund the government through the fourteenth of March. 245 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: What happens on March fifteenth, when this resolution has expired. 246 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 5: You know, I joked with one of my Republican colleagues 247 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 5: in the elevator. He said, he said, what are we 248 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 5: doing here today? And I said, well, that can doesn't 249 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 5: kick itself down the road. That's why we had to 250 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 5: be here today. And it's sort of funny, but it's 251 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:18,839 Speaker 5: also not funny, right because the over the last two 252 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 5: years of Republican control in Congress, they've never really managed 253 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 5: to put together an appropriations package other than one where 254 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 5: the terms were dictated by the Democrats, either through a 255 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 5: continuing resolution that the Democrats carried across the line, or 256 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 5: through the deal that mcarthy negotiated with Biden that essentially 257 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 5: locked in the funding levels we had set in the 258 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 5: last term with some minor adjustments. And so the question 259 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: will be, with a much thinner Republican majority, can they 260 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 5: get online between their sort of extreme right wing that 261 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 5: would would happily shut the government down and wants to 262 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 5: massively cut government services and they're they're more moderate and 263 00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 5: in many cases more numerous reasonable wing who has pose 264 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 5: those tensions, and that fight has bedeviled the Republican caucus 265 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 5: for this whole term. I think you'll continue to find 266 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 5: that Democrats are willing to work constructively with those Republicans 267 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 5: on a bipartisan basis as we have, but we'll have 268 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 5: to see what they bring together. There's you know, I 269 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 5: like to remind people that there were two fist fights 270 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 5: in the House this last term. They all involved Republicans, 271 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 5: and trying to figure out how they're going to get 272 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 5: along together is going to be is going to be 273 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 5: a challenge for this next term, at least in the House. 274 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 2: Well, when we consider what was left out, and you know, 275 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 2: I know a lot of Democrats were heartened to see 276 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 2: the request for emergency funding for hurricane relief put back in, 277 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 2: but we didn't see year round sale of E fifteen gasoline, 278 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 2: the crackdown on PBMs that we heard about, also restrictions 279 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 2: on investments in China. Congressmen, some Democrats like Rosa de Laurel, 280 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 2: like Jim McGovern of Massachusetts said that's the real reason 281 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 2: Elon Musk opposed this because of the amount of business 282 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 2: that he does in China through Tesla and other entities. 283 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 3: Do you agree. 284 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 5: There's a lot of smoke there, you know, whether there's fire. 285 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 5: I think we need to do some more investigating, but 286 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 5: that you know, I serve on the Financial Services Committee, 287 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 5: and Patrick Mchennery and Andy Barr were really great sponsors 288 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 5: figuring out how to manage that outbound investment. There's a 289 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 5: real concern on the Republican side of the aisle with 290 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 5: what we are doing to send US technology to our 291 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 5: adversaries and how are we controlling that, especially technology that 292 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 5: has national security implications. And yes, there is huge concern 293 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 5: that mister Musk weighed in so heavily against that, and 294 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 5: I would you know, I would hope that the fact 295 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 5: that there was such a bipartisan support for that provision 296 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 5: will also lead to some bipartisan oversight support to ask 297 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 5: some questions understand what's going on there. But yes, it 298 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 5: is a it's concerning. We spend so much time in 299 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 5: classified and unclassified settings trying to track where US generated 300 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 5: IP is going, and I'd rather not get in a 301 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 5: fight with the White House about whether we should give 302 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 5: that intellectual property to our adversaries. 303 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:06,880 Speaker 3: Wow. 304 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you last time you were with us, Congressman, 305 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:11,439 Speaker 2: you were about to go to the floor of the 306 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 2: House with the privileged resolution to force the release of 307 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 2: the Ethics Committee report into Now former Congressman Matt Gates. 308 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 2: That report has been released. It came out Monday morning, 309 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 2: and it is quite a salacious read. I can't say 310 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 2: some of this stuff even on the air. As I 311 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 2: read from the report, Gates is now threatening to show 312 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: up next week to claim the seat for which he 313 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 2: was elected. If that happens, and I don't know if 314 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 2: you're hearing anything about this congressman, should he be sworn in. 315 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,719 Speaker 5: Gates doesn't have that option. Gates formally submitted his notice 316 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 5: not to run in one hundred and nineteenth Congress we 317 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 5: call Ron DeSantis initiated the special election so that they 318 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 5: can go through and hold that. The deadline to file 319 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 5: to run that election has passed and they're printing ballots. 320 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 5: So I mean, Matt Gates is trying to get on 321 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 5: the news given as you mentioned, the salacious details in 322 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 5: that report. If I were Matt Gates issues, I would 323 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 5: be trying to keep a lower profile and not have 324 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 5: people looking in to find out that you know, he 325 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 5: had you know, he paid for sex with seventeen year 326 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 5: old girls. So if people want to talk about that, 327 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 5: we'll talk about that. But he does not have a 328 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 5: way to become a member of the next Congress. He 329 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 5: just has a way to talk and get on television. 330 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 2: You must be glad that it's been released. 331 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 3: Now that it's public. 332 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 5: I mean, I think glad is probably the wrong word. 333 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 5: I'm glad that the Ethics Committee stood up for ethics 334 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 5: in Congress. I'm glad that, you know, we're hearing that 335 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 5: at least two Republicans on the Ethics Committe voted to 336 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 5: release that. And it's not because we're trying to, you know, 337 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 5: hurt one of our former colleagues. It's because the House 338 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 5: has to comport itself in an ethical way that attracts 339 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 5: the respect of the American people, regardless of how they vote. 340 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 5: And when we hold ourselves accountable, when we hold members 341 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 5: accountable for these sorts of actions, we base sickly send 342 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 5: a message to the American people that we care about 343 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 5: this institution and we love this institution. And that's the 344 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 5: important thing of releasing this group. 345 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 2: It's great to have you today, Congressman. I hope you 346 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 2: had a great holiday. Merry Christmas and happy Hanukkah to 347 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 2: all of your constituents in the Chicago area. 348 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 349 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on APO car Play 350 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 351 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 352 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 353 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 2: We wanted to spend some time with Adam Hodge to 354 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 2: talk about the legacy left and potentially work that remains Hereies, 355 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 2: managing director at Bully Pulpit International, former official in the 356 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 2: Biden White House. 357 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 3: Adam, it's great to see you. I hope you had a 358 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 3: great Christmas. I did have a good. Thanks for joining us. 359 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 7: I'm a bit jealous of Biden. I'm born and raised 360 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 7: in Saint Croix. 361 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 3: Was Oh my god, jealous. 362 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 7: My sisters are good. 363 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 3: Where did you go home? I should should have. 364 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 2: This is a a tradition for them, much like going 365 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 2: to Nantucket on Thanksgiving. This tradition for the Bidens. What's 366 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 2: the conversation at the family table this weekend. 367 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 7: I gotta imagine it's a bit of nostalgia, thinking like 368 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 7: this is the last trip that they'll do as president. 369 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 7: Down there, it's a reminder if they do it every year, 370 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 7: just that the presidency is coming to an end. 371 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 3: I think, look there, certainly it's a bittersweet end. 372 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 7: Joe Biden ran for reelection at the beginning because he 373 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 7: wanted to continue to serve. I think he felt he 374 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 7: had more gas in the tank, that is, more things 375 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 7: that he wanted to get done. Obviously didn't turn out 376 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 7: that way, but I think he'll walk away with a 377 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 7: bit of pride. 378 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 3: In what he did accomplish. 379 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 7: I mean some of the big things that they got done, 380 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 7: whether it's the American Recovery Act, digging the country out 381 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 7: of the pandemic, Inflation Production Act, the infrastructure Law, like 382 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 7: the Chips and Science Act, those are hallmark legislation that 383 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 7: will be tough to unravel, although you've heard the Trump 384 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 7: administration think about doing some of that. But he'll hold 385 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 7: his head high on some of those things, and also 386 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 7: the things they've done to strengthen America's position around the world. 387 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 7: He came to the defense of Ukraine, and while we 388 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 7: saw the attacks over the holiday period Russia targeting specifically 389 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 7: the energy sector, which. 390 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 3: Is I mean just barbaric. 391 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 7: Donald Trump, I mean, has threatened to walk away from 392 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,719 Speaker 7: some of those commitments, but Joe Biden can say, Look, 393 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 7: NATO is bigger than it was when I took office. 394 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 7: More countries are meeting the two percent GDP commitment to 395 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 7: their own defense. A lot of that money actually is 396 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 7: coming to buy American goods and American defense suppliers and 397 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 7: getting shipped back to Europe. So he's got a strong 398 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 7: record to hang his hat on. I think I hope 399 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 7: he takes that away from the office, and I think 400 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 7: you're right. It will be a bittersweet moment to watch 401 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 7: Donald Trump take the of office, but he'll be there 402 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 7: because he believes in democracy and the transfer of power. 403 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 2: A lot to talk about Trump proofing as he heads 404 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 2: out of the White House. Here to what extent can 405 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 2: Joe Biden protect elements of the IRA? For instance, you 406 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 2: mentioned in Structure and Chips will seem to be pretty 407 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 2: popular on a bipartisan level. The IRA is the one 408 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 2: that we hear about. Donald Trump wants to reverse many 409 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 2: of the components of this loss, so. 410 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 3: Does Mike Johnson. 411 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 7: Well, but I think the key thing that we'll look 412 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 7: at in the new Congress is they're going to try 413 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 7: to extend the Trump tax cuts seventeen and we're talking 414 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 7: of a four trillion dollar price tag by independent estimates, 415 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 7: So they're going to look for other pay fors wherever 416 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 7: they can find them. And some of the clean energy 417 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 7: tax credits. You're talking three hundred and fifty billion dollars 418 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 7: that are potentially a threat as they look for ways 419 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 7: to fund the other tax cuts for corporations or wealthy individuals. 420 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 3: So that's certainly. 421 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 7: Something that I think people should be watching. Investors should 422 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 7: be clearly keeping a close track on that because it's clearly. 423 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 3: Going to be on the table. 424 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 7: The thing that I'm conscious of, though, the Republican majority. 425 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 3: Is so slim one maybe two. 426 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 7: After some of the nominees get confirmed, and there are 427 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 7: a lot of these projects that are in some of 428 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 7: their districts that are and would be at threat if 429 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,239 Speaker 7: they cut some of that at funding. So it's going 430 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 7: to be a really tough battle for them to kind 431 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 7: of get through, and it's going to come thick and fast, 432 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 7: especially with the ceiling also on. 433 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 3: The table early in the new cast. 434 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 2: It's going to be wild as we consider the future 435 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 2: here with Adam Hodge and things that could have gone differently. 436 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: You know, there's a big post mortem that happens after 437 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 2: a loss like this. Even though he technically didn't lose 438 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 2: to Donald Trump, he dropped out of the race. Do 439 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 2: you believe this came down to inflation. If Joe Biden 440 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 2: managed to lick inflation, if he managed to get prices lower, 441 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 2: would it have been different. 442 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 7: It's hard not take a stock of the broader geopolitical 443 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 7: move I mean, incumbents, especially center left incumbents around the 444 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 7: world coming out of the pandemic and the inflation and 445 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 7: the supply chain crutch that. 446 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 3: You see a global trend, a global trend. 447 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 7: I mean the only incumbents across the world in Poland 448 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 7: and Spain right and was just one example. We also 449 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 7: had the lowest inflation rate of any major economy in 450 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 7: the world. I mean, we had one of the more 451 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,439 Speaker 7: successful efforts to drive down inflation in the country, but 452 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 7: there was definitely a palpable sense in the country that 453 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 7: prices were too high, and it hurt incumbents around the world. 454 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 7: So I think regardless of what Joe Biden tried to do, 455 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,199 Speaker 7: and they did a lot to get inflation from nine 456 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 7: percent down to two percent two and a half percent, 457 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 7: when come election day, that's you know, was still too 458 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 7: much for people and it's a memory. But I think 459 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 7: the question for the Trump administration coming in or do 460 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 7: the policies sort of reverse some of that trend that 461 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 7: we've seen, right, tariffs have a real threat to drive 462 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 7: up inflation. You know, the bond prices are going to 463 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 7: be looking at the cost of borrowing if the government 464 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 7: takes on a whole lot more debt to pay for 465 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 7: the tax cuts. That's there's all kinds of costs that 466 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 7: could add to more a greater burden on the American taxpayer. 467 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,399 Speaker 7: So that's a real thing I think to be watching 468 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 7: as we go in the new year, and Republicans are 469 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 7: going to have to try to find a way to 470 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 7: deal with some of those challenges, that's for sure. Democrats 471 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 7: have been clear they're going to fight for the things 472 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,399 Speaker 7: that we believe, and I think there's an opportunity to 473 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 7: unify around some of the opposition to those Trump policies 474 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 7: in the new Congress. 475 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 2: You've heard in this post mortem as well, a lot 476 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 2: of Republican critics who accused Democrats of covering up Joe 477 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 2: Biden's mental state, his mental acuity, his physical state. 478 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 3: And I just wonder where you are. 479 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 2: On this now that some time has passed since he 480 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 2: dropped out and since the election. When you see Joe Biden, 481 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 2: now you saw him, I think just last week as 482 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 2: part of the Christmas celebration at the White House. Do 483 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 2: you feel differently about that now? Do you think that 484 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 2: he in fact did age precipitously through the year to 485 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 2: be in a different place physically or mentally than he 486 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 2: was when he. 487 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 3: Said he was ready for another four years. 488 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 7: I mean, there's no question that he's aged over the 489 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 7: last couple of years. 490 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 3: That's not really debatable. 491 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 7: It's not like the president, though, was hiding he was 492 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 7: president of the United States. 493 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 3: Publicans. 494 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 7: No, but he got a pool that's following everywhere he goes. 495 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 7: Every time he stepped on and off air Force One had. 496 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 7: You know, people looked at that. I mean, he would 497 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 7: show up to events and speak and you saw him. 498 00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 7: It wasn't like he disappeared from the public eye, right. 499 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 7: So I think it's a bit of Republicans playing games 500 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 7: with him. 501 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 3: And but I think you don't buy the cover up. No, 502 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 3: I mean, he's the president. 503 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 7: He's out in public, right, I mean, it's not like 504 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 7: there's a cover up. And I think the thing I 505 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 7: kept hearing when I was in the White House from 506 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 7: people who come out of meetings, it was how hard 507 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,640 Speaker 7: he was on them, pushing him for them for answers 508 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 7: or asking asking detailed, probing questions about issues. And you know, 509 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,160 Speaker 7: there's no question that physically getting moving around, he's had 510 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 7: some struggles. But I think everybody can, like what I 511 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 7: heard from people who were still in the White House recently, 512 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,199 Speaker 7: he's still asking those same tough questions. He's still probing 513 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,199 Speaker 7: and pushing them around. 514 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 3: So I don't think. 515 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,400 Speaker 7: I don't buy this argument that there was some sort 516 00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 7: of cover up around his. 517 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 3: Abilities to service. 518 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 7: And nobody, the Vice President who's in all those meetings 519 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 7: with him, said the same. That's what I believes he 520 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 7: gonna do. 521 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 2: Now, when you finish a job like this, he tend 522 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 2: to go dark for a while, right, He's gonna try 523 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 2: to relax, get some things done. 524 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 3: Uh, he's an older man. 525 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 2: I don't know how much time he has to enjoy retire. 526 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 3: What does retirement look like for joke by everybody. 527 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 7: Who said, you know, especially his kids and grandkids say 528 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,440 Speaker 7: like he burns up the phone call and then ipect. 529 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:29,680 Speaker 3: That's gonna continue. 530 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 7: He's gonna he's gonna spend some time with his grandkids, 531 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 7: like see his family. I mean, that's he's earned that, right. 532 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 7: Maybe he'll write a book about his you know, his 533 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,919 Speaker 7: presidency and in the time, and I think there will 534 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 7: be some insights. 535 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 3: Does he speak politically and I'm sure he will. 536 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 7: He will find opportunities and moments to weigh. And he 537 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 7: saw Barack Obama after he left, after even Trump took office, 538 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 7: he took some time, you know. And I think is 539 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 7: the right thing to do to let the next generation of. 540 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 3: Leaders step up. 541 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 7: So, whether that's Keem, Jeffries and you know Schumer in 542 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 7: the in the Senate, other Democrats around the country, giving 543 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 7: them an opportunity to show and be a present a 544 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 7: compelling vision for what the Democratic Party should be. 545 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 3: I think is the right thing to do. 546 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,200 Speaker 7: Joe Biden is not going to be president again, that 547 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 7: we should let the next generation of leaders could have 548 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 7: take over, and King Jeffres in the House will be 549 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 7: front and center in that fight and have a chance 550 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 7: to present a unified, different message. And I think Democrats 551 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 7: can take some stock. Trump's going to give us some opportunities, 552 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,439 Speaker 7: whether it's on immigration you were talking about last segment, 553 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 7: whether it's on the tax cuts. There's gonna be a 554 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,360 Speaker 7: whole lot of issues where Democrats will have an opportunity 555 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 7: to unify. And I think The key thing is how 556 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 7: we pick and choose our battles and show the areas 557 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 7: where we're fighting for working class people and less privileged 558 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 7: and set up that clear contrast with President Trump. That 559 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 7: to me seems like where you'll see Democrats try to 560 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 7: go in the new Congress. 561 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 2: We're out of time, but Democrats start running for the 562 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 2: midterms starting next week, right. 563 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 7: They will, certainly, But I think Democrats have to also 564 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 7: think about where we go, not just the next cycle, 565 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,600 Speaker 7: but the next three cycles. We have to regain an 566 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 7: ability to win seats across the country. 567 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 3: That has to be paramount fascinating. 568 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 2: Great to see you, Adam Hodge, Managing Director, Bully Pulpit International. 569 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 2: Great to spend some time post holiday with you. Enjoy 570 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 2: the rest of them in Happy New Year to you, 571 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 2: of course, with us here in Washington, d C. 572 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 3: Adam Hodge. 573 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 574 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enron 575 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business ad. You can also listen 576 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 577 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 578 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 2: As I mentioned, Trump two point zero the new administration 579 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 2: January twentieth, but one that is already well in the works. 580 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 2: Here there's news today, in fact, and it's the big 581 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 2: talker in town here at the front page of the 582 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 2: Washington Post about the Borders Are, which, of course is 583 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 2: a position that does not require Senate confirmation because it's 584 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 2: not an official cabinet role. Tom Holman, as we told 585 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 2: you weeks ago, in that role, will have a lot 586 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 2: to do with the initial stages of the Trump administration's 587 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 2: approach to immigration, and news today that family detention will 588 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 2: be back on the table. Holman telling the Washington Post 589 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 2: that ICE will look to hold parents with children in 590 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 2: soft sided tent structures similar to those used by the 591 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 2: Border Patrol. 592 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 3: When they have immigration surges. 593 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 2: Authorities will once more put families with children in detention centers. 594 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 3: Says the Borders Are. 595 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation with our signature panel. 596 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno on the Thursday edition. She, 597 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 2: of course, Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University. 598 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. 599 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 2: This may not sound surprising to you. Rick it would 600 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 2: be consistent with what we saw in the first Trump administration, 601 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 2: but counter to some of the more recent remarks he's 602 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 2: made about working with Democrats, for instance, when it comes 603 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 2: to Dreamers and some of the other outreach that we've heard. 604 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 2: How do you think this will play out here with 605 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 2: an official who's not in fact confirmed by the Senate, 606 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 2: but could start working immediately when the president is sworn in. 607 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, first of all, we know Donald Trump loves 608 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 6: to work through zurs, right, and Fulman is just a 609 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 6: good example of someone who won't have any you know, 610 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 6: sort of official role in a cabinet agency, but use 611 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 6: the power of the White House, which will be all 612 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 6: powerful in this administration, to dictate policy. Of course, we 613 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 6: see other people like Doug Burgham or a governor who's 614 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 6: going to be the Interior or secretary, but his real 615 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 6: role is going to be the energies are so he's 616 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 6: tacked that on. And of course nobody can discount Elon Musk, 617 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,959 Speaker 6: who in essence is the budgets are right and he 618 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,719 Speaker 6: will he will oversee the DOGE program. So these are 619 00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 6: all extra curricular government officials who will have amazing amount 620 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 6: of power. And if you believe what Donald Trump has said, 621 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 6: as you mentioned, Joe, then you got to believe there's 622 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 6: going to be more of a comprehensive approach to immigration reform. 623 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 6: And I think that's what a lot of people expect 624 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 6: to see happening in this first turn of the first Congress, 625 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 6: now one hundred and nineteenth Congress, and that is a 626 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 6: big bill that's going to incorporate a lot of rules changes, 627 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 6: a lot of budgetary impact to really solidify Donald Trump's 628 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 6: stamp on immigration policy. Things he knew he wanted to 629 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 6: do and did before that got rejected in the Biden administration, 630 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 6: and then new things that he wished he'd done that 631 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,479 Speaker 6: he just didn't get done in his first administration. And 632 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,959 Speaker 6: there will be room for a conversation about dreamers and 633 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 6: other Democratic priorities in order to build a coalition to 634 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:55,960 Speaker 6: get that bill through. 635 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 2: Jennie Joe Biden ended Family to ten in twenty twenty one. 636 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 2: What does this headline mean today? 637 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,760 Speaker 8: You know, we've heard Tom Holman just over the last 638 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 8: few days commenting on this horrific act of violence, this 639 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 8: murder of this homeless woman in the New York City subway. 640 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 8: She was sleeping, an illegal immigrant doused her and set 641 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 8: her on fire, killing her. And Tom Holman spoke out 642 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,920 Speaker 8: about that, as did many people, of the horror of that, 643 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 8: and said that this is because the Biden administration has 644 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 8: not been tough enough on the border and he is 645 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 8: going to correct that with Donald Trump. And that is 646 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 8: what you know, seventy four seventy five million people voted 647 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 8: for Donald Trump. For the problem when he moves to 648 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 8: these kinds of policies that the Post is reporting on 649 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 8: today is the question, does Homan and Donald Trump do 650 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 8: they overread Donald Trump's mandate? You know, these seventy four million, 651 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 8: seventy five million voted for security at the border, for 652 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 8: a sound immigration policy. But even Donald Trump himself on 653 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 8: Meet the Press the other day said he knows how 654 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 8: horrific some of this video and some of these pictures 655 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 8: will be when you are dealing children and families. And 656 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 8: that is going to be the big test here. Do this, 657 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 8: you know, accepting the seventeen million who voted in the 658 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 8: primary for him, do the other you know, fifty million 659 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 8: people stick with him or does is this a bridge 660 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 8: too far? And that's something I think we're going to 661 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:24,240 Speaker 8: have to wait and see. 662 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 2: On well onto mass deportations here home and telling the 663 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 2: post Rick that the government will not hesitate. He says, 664 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 2: to deport parents who are in the country illegally, even 665 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 2: if they have young US born children. Interesting quote, he said, 666 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 2: here's the issue. Quote you knew you were in the 667 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:48,400 Speaker 2: country illegally and chose to have a child, so you 668 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,280 Speaker 2: put your family in that position unquote. Does that resonate 669 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,800 Speaker 2: with American voters? Is that how Americans feel? 670 00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 6: I think it's going to get tricky in this category. 671 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:04,280 Speaker 6: Americans are relying compassionate, and I think if these cases 672 00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 6: and they will go to court, courts will also look 673 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 6: on it in a more compassionate way and look on 674 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 6: it based on the judicial history. And the judicial history 675 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,759 Speaker 6: of this is that these are citizens in the United 676 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 6: States and they turn they turn a blind eye to 677 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:26,080 Speaker 6: the immigration rules when it comes to a minor who's 678 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 6: an American citizen needing their parents. 679 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,720 Speaker 3: So we'll see. 680 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,399 Speaker 6: My suspicion is based on what Donald Trump has said 681 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 6: repeatedly that he's going to go after the hardened criminals. 682 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 6: These aren't the ones leaving behind naturalized citizens. They're the 683 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 6: ones who are either one already serving time, have been 684 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,319 Speaker 6: captured or to the police have been after for some time, 685 00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 6: so rounding them up will be no easy task. But 686 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,160 Speaker 6: if that is a top priority, he will engenerate great 687 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,560 Speaker 6: support amongst the American public for rounding these gang members 688 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 6: up and these criminal hardened criminals and getting out of 689 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,799 Speaker 6: our country. After that, I would suspect you're going to 690 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 6: get into cases such as what you just described, which is, 691 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 6: you know, families who came to the country illegally gave 692 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 6: birth to a naturalized citizen, and that's when it really 693 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 6: gets complicated. But I think the American public is about compassion, 694 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 6: not about persecution, and I think you're going to see 695 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,680 Speaker 6: a bit of a change in the process at that point. 696 00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 2: Talk to us about this, genie. Do you believe that 697 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 2: you just mentioned it yourself. Donald Trump knows what the 698 00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 2: images will do, he knows how this will play in 699 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 2: the news. But you've got Tom Holman saying, Hey, you 700 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 2: knew you were here illegally, you chose to have a child. 701 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:39,080 Speaker 2: That's on you. 702 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 8: Yeah. I think we probably see an EO on birthrate 703 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,360 Speaker 8: citizenship that then goes into the courts, and the courts 704 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,520 Speaker 8: will have to make that determination. That's why the Biden administration, 705 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 8: the Democrats are working so furiously to get these nominees 706 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,319 Speaker 8: to the federal bench through so much of this fight 707 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 8: is going to be in the courts. But Donald Trump 708 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 8: knows better than anybody the images will play out on 709 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:06,320 Speaker 8: social media on television. When you talk about a young 710 00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:10,279 Speaker 8: child who is here innocently and there is either a 711 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 8: separation from family parents otherwise, or they are deported to 712 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 8: a place they've never been and not known, you are 713 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,680 Speaker 8: going to see a furious reaction from the American public. 714 00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 8: And that again is where this question of does Donald 715 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 8: Trump overread his mandate? The mandate is for security. The 716 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 8: mandate is to make sure we have a sound immigration policy. 717 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:38,480 Speaker 8: It is not to do harm to innocent people who 718 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 8: are here through whatever means. And that's where we heard 719 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 8: Donald Trump quite frankly talking about DACA. There has got 720 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 8: to be a way. And then of course there is 721 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:50,799 Speaker 8: the economic aspect of this doing all of this billions 722 00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,960 Speaker 8: of dollars. Where is that money coming from? He has 723 00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,680 Speaker 8: not talked about that yet. So all of that makes 724 00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,400 Speaker 8: the idea that they're going to go that far that 725 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:00,920 Speaker 8: much more difficult for me. 726 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 2: Please, we're still going to have a lot to figure 727 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,880 Speaker 2: out in the new year with Genie Shanzo and Rick Davis. 728 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:09,200 Speaker 3: Delighted to have you both with us. 729 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,040 Speaker 2: Thank you, as always our signature panel here on Balance 730 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:16,719 Speaker 2: of Power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 731 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,000 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify. 732 00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 3: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and 733 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,279 Speaker 2: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 734 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,120 Speaker 2: at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.