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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to most of territory.

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Speaker 1: We have a very special guest coming back onto the show,

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Speaker 1: Lance Brazdowski. My friend, how you doing.

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Speaker 2: Hey, what's up man? Good to see you. I feel

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Speaker 2: like I'm not saying I like, unfortunately have this on.

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Speaker 2: I feel like I'm like coming out of like a

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Speaker 2: business meeting, and you look wonderful red Sox ball.

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Speaker 1: So you look very snazzy. I mean, I look like

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Speaker 1: a bum here over all my channel. So this is

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Speaker 1: all I had, This is all I had clean for today, unfortunately, So.

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Speaker 2: That's funny.

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Speaker 1: You know, I got actually I got it out of

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Speaker 1: the seasons coming up, I gotta start breaking out the jerseys,

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Speaker 1: you know, I gotta. I gotta get ready here for

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Speaker 1: the season. We are very close. I gotta ask you

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Speaker 1: right off the bat, how excited are you about what

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Speaker 1: a few weeks away here WBC coming up here the

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Speaker 1: next week or so. How excited are you?

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Speaker 2: I'm hyped. Yeah. I think competitive ball is great, especially

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Speaker 2: in the middle of March. I feel like Spring is

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Speaker 2: awesome when he gets going. But then you get like

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Speaker 2: two weeks in and you're like, cool, just give me

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Speaker 2: the regular season. Like, I don't, I don't want to

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Speaker 2: watch the next three weeks of spring training baseball. But

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Speaker 2: in WBC, ye, you actually get like competitive games which

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Speaker 2: are really fun. So I'm really excited. It definitely bridges

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Speaker 2: to the season in a more appetizing fashion, I think

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Speaker 2: than the usual month and a half half forty days

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Speaker 2: of spring training that for the most part, twenty of them.

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Speaker 2: I'm just like, I don't want to watch this random

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Speaker 2: dude in the seventh enning of a eighties Angels game,

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I agree. You have the excitement of spring,

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Speaker 1: the gates open, the grass is fresh, everything is just

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Speaker 1: feeling good, and then you kind of just go back

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Speaker 1: into your hole for a little bit, like okay, all right,

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Speaker 1: well all right, let's see how these guys are doing.

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Speaker 1: But call me when the regular season starts. But no,

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Speaker 1: you're right, the WBC. That's definitely exciting here. Also, I

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Speaker 1: got an announcement for Major League Baseball this past week,

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Speaker 1: the Spring Breakout. They're going to be making that a

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Speaker 1: tournament in a couple of years, So I'm actually very

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Speaker 1: excited about that one. Did you see that announcement?

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Speaker 2: I did. Yeah, someone was speculating to me that it

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Speaker 2: was potential lockout stuff where like those guys, aren't you

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Speaker 2: if you make the rosters of non forties and there's

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Speaker 2: happens to be no games and like March, you could

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Speaker 2: technically like put this on television, which is really funny

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Speaker 2: to me, but I tried to be I want to

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Speaker 2: be more optimistic and say I think it's a great

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Speaker 2: idea and I think it's cool, Like I think it's

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Speaker 2: it's gonna put the guys on a bigger stage. I'm

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Speaker 2: curious to see if there's like actual like put some

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Speaker 2: money on the line, like give the winning team, give

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Speaker 2: everybody on the winning team, like one hundred k bone

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Speaker 2: or something like that. Like some of those guys who

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Speaker 2: are gonna be playing did not sign for a lot

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Speaker 2: and are making not a lot of money, so I

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Speaker 2: don't know. Like the NBA has been talking about creating

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Speaker 2: financial incentives for the dunk contests and stuff, and I

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Speaker 2: feel like the MLB can take advantage of this and

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Speaker 2: be like, no, we'll pay these guys if you win,

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Speaker 2: you make X amount of dollars. I think it would

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Speaker 2: get a lot of these guys up. And now it

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Speaker 2: just goes back on the teams to actually make sure

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Speaker 2: the guys are progressed properly such that the pitchers throwing

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Speaker 2: in those games are not gonna blow out and stuff.

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Speaker 2: It's always the big thing obviously with spring training. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's more pressure on those guys. Teams are gonna have

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Speaker 2: to be kind of cautious with how they're deploying a

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Speaker 2: really good pitching prospect, you know who, Like a Ryan

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Speaker 2: Sloan's a great example. He threw every seventh day last

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Speaker 2: year for the Mariners. If the Mariners are like deep

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Speaker 2: in this turn and are they gonna throw Sloan for

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Speaker 2: four innings? Probably not. You know, does Sloan want to

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Speaker 2: do that? If he can make one hundred K like

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Speaker 2: he had a huge signing boats, probably doesn't matter to him.

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Speaker 2: But but anyways, it's a great idea. I'm pretty hyped

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Speaker 2: for next year. Yeah, me too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I like, you know, yeah, you got

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Speaker 1: this whole lockout thing right, But I'm staying optimistic about it.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully they can somehow, some way figure something out, right.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I like that you're coming up with

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Speaker 1: these new ideas moving forward. I think it's good for

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Speaker 1: the game. But what's also good for the game. Is

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox actually competing and they're looking really good

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 2: Lance.

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Speaker 1: I'm not trying to be biased, I'm not trying to

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Speaker 1: be that guy here, but the Red Sox are looking good,

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Speaker 1: especially on the pitching side of things. And that's why

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Speaker 1: we've brought you here onto the show because listen, you're

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Speaker 1: an expert when it comes to everything on the picturing

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Speaker 1: side of things, all the advanced metrics, the you know,

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Speaker 1: the movement and of all the pictures. Very fun to

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Speaker 1: listen to. Over on your YouTube channel, you got your

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Speaker 1: sub stack, so everyone listening please go follow Lance Brezdowski

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Speaker 1: over there. It's funny because anytime now, ever since I

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Speaker 1: found you and your channel, anytime there's anything pitching wise,

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Speaker 1: especially with the Red Sox, I always think to myself,

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Speaker 1: what is Lance thinking right now? I got to know

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Speaker 1: what is in his mind, and that's why we're happy

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Speaker 1: here to Sam. No, we've talked, we've talked. I've definitely

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Speaker 1: picked your brain. But there's definitely some interesting developments going

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Speaker 1: on with the Red Sox on the pitching side of things,

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Speaker 1: and ever since Craig came into the fold right a

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Speaker 1: couple of years ago, he's completely revamped everything, you know,

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Speaker 1: a completely different look, you know, going for different builds,

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Speaker 1: bigger builds, right, bringing in these moose like kind of pictures, right,

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Speaker 1: going for those big bodied kind of guys. The development

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Speaker 1: has completely turned around and this rotation is looking i'd say,

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Speaker 1: very good. And we've got a few things to talk

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Speaker 1: about here. The first thing I got to ask you

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Speaker 1: Ranger Suarez. He was one of the bigger signings of

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Speaker 1: this offseason. He was the pivot from Alex Bregman. It's

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Speaker 1: not the traditional kind of a pivot, right to attack

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Speaker 1: the roster in a different way to make up for

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Speaker 1: his production after he went to your Chicago Cups. But

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Speaker 1: after seeing Ranger Suarez signing the five year, one point

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Speaker 1: thirty with the Red Sox, what was your reaction to

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Speaker 1: that signing kind of what was your feel on the

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Speaker 1: whole thing. My immediate gut was do they have a

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Speaker 1: fix for the velocity because that's the obvious thing that's

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Speaker 1: tick trickled down. And I got so much pushback online

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Speaker 1: when I said this, where everyone's like, hed velosity doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter for him, He's a command pitcher.

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Speaker 2: I get it, But for the most part, I velocity

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Speaker 2: maybe matters less on sinkers, so good there, But like

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Speaker 2: Suarez throws a forcing he throws breaking balls. Those are

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Speaker 2: all going to be influenced from a swinging miss standpoint

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Speaker 2: by the velocity of the pitch. So he's fallen almost

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Speaker 2: two ticks since twenty twenty three. He was ninety three

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Speaker 2: to four on his four seene, then he was ninety

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Speaker 2: two the prior twenty twenty four this would be, and

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Speaker 2: then twenty twenty five he was like ninety one two.

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Speaker 2: It's like he's ticked down a lot. The problem is

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Speaker 2: that I can't really justify this point because he's actually

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Speaker 2: been better at over velocity somehow as barrel rights dropped out.

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Speaker 2: He had one of his best seasons last year. So

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Speaker 2: my bet here is that doesn't continue. If he comes

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Speaker 2: out and he's sitting ninety one during this season, I

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Speaker 2: would expect him not as great performances as he had

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five overall. So I would imagine the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox making this acquisition with the id in mind

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Speaker 2: that they haven't a way to get him back to

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Speaker 2: like the ninety three maybe even just ninety two area,

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Speaker 2: like just push it back up a bit and then

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Speaker 2: over the life of the contract, maybe you could be

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Speaker 2: building back out. But yeah, I think it's an interesting signing.

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Speaker 2: He's more of like a ball and play guy. He's

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Speaker 2: really good command artist, you know. I just think velocity

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Speaker 2: creates allows your buffer from a margin freer standpoint to

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Speaker 2: increase a bit. And that is my bet based on

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Speaker 2: how I understand the Red Sox operate, is that they

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Speaker 2: are playing with that angle as opposed to going in

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Speaker 2: and saying, you know, like the Yankees do with Max

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Speaker 2: Fried last year, where it's like we could change a

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Speaker 2: lot of things here and capture a ton of value.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's more we like what you do, we

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Speaker 2: like the ball and play you create, and now we

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Speaker 2: think we can make you a bit better by just

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Speaker 2: pushing sivelocity.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting you brought up the how the change

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Speaker 1: up was more effective for him last year even with

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Speaker 1: lower villo. I would like to think over a bigger sample,

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Speaker 1: a little bit more velo on the fastball to create

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Speaker 1: more of that differentiation is only going to help in

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Speaker 1: the end. So I'm with you there. I think even

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Speaker 1: if you can add back, you know, another mile per hour,

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Speaker 1: maybe a couple, it's only going to help you, I

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Speaker 1: think in the long run, and like you said, it

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Speaker 1: helps set up your other pictures.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: But Ranger Suarez, you know, getting put into the number

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Speaker 1: two spot into this Red Sox rotation, you got a

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Speaker 1: pretty good look in one two here with him and

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Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet. But funny enough, in the beginning of the offseason,

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Speaker 1: he was nowhere on the radar, at least in reports.

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Speaker 1: When it came to the Red Sox free agent pursuits,

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Speaker 1: A lot of people thought the number two in the

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Speaker 1: early going was another edition they made, and that was

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Speaker 1: Sonny Gray. And there was a lot of debate. Oh,

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Speaker 1: Sonny Gray the number two in this rotation, He's not

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Speaker 1: a number two. He's more like a number three. Some

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Speaker 1: people even saying he's a four or five for crying

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Speaker 1: outli which I disagreed with. But where I was at

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Speaker 1: with Sonny Gray after that trade happened was I was thinking,

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Speaker 1: you know, as a number two, maybe like a six

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Speaker 1: out of ten. Right, he's an okay number two, But

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Speaker 1: I think as a three he would be like an

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Speaker 1: eight or even a nine out of ten. Right. Definitely,

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Speaker 1: I think as a three, at least in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: very strong. But what were your thoughts on the sunny

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Speaker 1: gray addition, and what do you think of him in

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Speaker 1: the three spot in the rotation?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think he's I think he's a

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Speaker 2: very good picture with guys who were older like this,

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Speaker 2: I always struggle a bit with trying to find like

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Speaker 2: where the I call him like age cliff, Like where's

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Speaker 2: the age cliff here? You know, like there's some survivorship

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Speaker 2: bias I think in looking at guys this old who've

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Speaker 2: been successful for this long where for the most part,

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Speaker 2: if you look at agent Curves, it's like, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 2: he should have been awful three and a half years ago,

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Speaker 2: It's like, great, well he's had three consecutive four war

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Speaker 2: seasons right around there, so he's been a very good

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Speaker 2: pitcher in that sense. And I am always trying to find,

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Speaker 2: like where the drop off point is. I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: do this in any ranking I do, and any time

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Speaker 2: I look at pictures, you know, looking at like a

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Speaker 2: Chris Sale is even a good example as well, like

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Speaker 2: at there's some point here where it's probably gonna all collapse,

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Speaker 2: like this happened with Verlander, it happened with Scherzer. Despite

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Speaker 2: the fact that we continually just thought it would never

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Speaker 2: happen with those two. So Sonny is an interesting picture

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Speaker 2: from the sense that he lines up. I would say

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Speaker 2: more with what the what Red Sox like from like

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Speaker 2: a just cut and create everything to your glove side

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Speaker 2: in terms of movement, so like he throws basically five

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Speaker 2: glove side pitches, which is really odd and I don't

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Speaker 2: know if there's anybody else in baseball that does that,

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Speaker 2: but I say that because his forceete actually moves to

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Speaker 2: his glove side. He cuts that much. So in that sense,

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Speaker 2: he is a very weird pitcher, but he resembles I

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Speaker 2: think what the Red Sox like, Like they as an

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Speaker 2: organization slashed so much fastball usage in the minors between

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Speaker 2: twenty three and twenty four. I believe it was, which

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Speaker 2: makes sense. You're seeing this now with like Toboni going

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Speaker 2: to theals where he pulls down. You could see in

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Speaker 2: spring training a lot of the fastball usage from a

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Speaker 2: four seamen sinker standpoint. You see this with regimes that

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Speaker 2: come into new orgs because it's basically like, hey, you

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Speaker 2: guys aren't throwing the like your best pitch more. And

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Speaker 2: then over time, I think what we're gonna see the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox is the fastball usage come back. You see

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Speaker 2: them acquire like a Oviato is a good example where

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Speaker 2: he's got big extension, kind of a weirder angle on

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Speaker 2: his fastball. He's not a guy I think they're gonna

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Speaker 2: pull fastball usage down with. He's a guy that I

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Speaker 2: think they actually like the forcing shape of such that

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Speaker 2: he'll embrace it a bit more.

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Speaker 1: So.

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Speaker 2: This just gets I think Sonny in the way of saying,

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Speaker 2: this is just Sonny lines up with what the Red

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Speaker 2: Sox are like from what a guy does at release

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Speaker 2: standpoint with their hand, and for Sonny that's throwing a

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Speaker 2: bunch of breaking balls and locating him pretty well. Again,

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Speaker 2: it's just searching for the age cliff. Is it this year?

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Speaker 2: Is it next year? The velo for him is also

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Speaker 2: ticked down a bit, and unlike a guy like Ranger Suarez,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't expect as much of a kick back up

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Speaker 2: because he's thirty six, or he's entering his age thirty

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Speaker 2: seven season or entering his age thirty six seasons. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think he's a good pitcher. Again, I'm

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Speaker 2: fascinated to see how he does and I would project

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Speaker 2: him to be in this like kind of more maybe

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Speaker 2: three seven ish era area, which a lot of projections

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Speaker 2: have good picture. Again, we're just searching for where the

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Speaker 2: falloff is, where it's like, oh, yeah, I can't for

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Speaker 2: a harder than ninety two anymore, and I'm losing a

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Speaker 2: bit of spin and my results have tanked and my

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Speaker 2: walk rates no longer like below five percent, you know,

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Speaker 2: And when that happens, I think it's gonna be very

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Speaker 2: hard for him to regain things. Yeah, you know, when

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Speaker 2: I think back to some pictures in Red Sox history

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Speaker 2: where they started getting older and they had to start

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Speaker 2: relying more on the off speed and breaking pictures, I

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Speaker 2: think maybe not necessarily Pagro Martinez because he left the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox before he started getting into his latter years.

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Speaker 2: But I think of Kurt Shelling, right, Kurt Shelling, his

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Speaker 2: velo is falling off there right at the end of

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Speaker 2: his career, but he was just the veteran picture that

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Speaker 2: he was was focusing more on those splitters, you know,

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Speaker 2: the off speed and some of these breaking pictures, and

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Speaker 2: he was able to prolong himself a little bit more

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Speaker 2: after that. You give a look at Pagrow right when

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Speaker 2: he was with the Mets eventually went to the Phillies.

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Speaker 2: Still boggles my mind that pay is.

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Speaker 1: Pitching against the Yankees in the World Series against the Phillies.

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Speaker 1: But still you go back to that time, you know,

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Speaker 1: he was really you know, just throwing the breaking pitches,

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Speaker 1: throwing the off speed. They were really good. So it

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Speaker 1: kind of reminds me of that in a way. And

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Speaker 1: also with Sonny Gray, the first thing that came to

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Speaker 1: my mind was Andrew Bailey, right even though yes, like, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, you take a look at the four seam

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Speaker 1: usage very high, but that's a candidate. They keep doing

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Speaker 1: this over the last couple of years. They take these

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Speaker 1: guys who have really good secondary pitches and but they

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Speaker 1: throw a ton of fastballs and then they just straight

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Speaker 1: up decrease it. And I thought Andrew Bailey right off

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Speaker 1: the bat, very excited to see what he can do

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Speaker 1: with Sonny Gray. And I'm gonna ask you this a

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Speaker 1: bit of a off the top question here in a way,

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Speaker 1: from an intangible point of view, from a competitive point

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Speaker 1: of view, he reminds me a lot of Jake Peevey.

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Speaker 1: Would you maybe agree with that a little bit or disagree?

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Speaker 2: It's a great question. Yeah, I have to go back

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Speaker 2: into the memory of Bank and think of PV. I

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Speaker 2: guess I get it from that perspective. Gray's had some

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Speaker 2: interesting like media stuff with the Yankees and him like

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Speaker 2: not wanting you to do exactly what the Yankees organization

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Speaker 2: want him to do, which I found very funny. And

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Speaker 2: in that sense, I guess there's some correlation back to PV. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I don't mind. I don't think that's a terrible comp.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I'm kind of maybe I'm being hopeful, thinking,

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Speaker 1: all right, here's our twenty thirteen Jake Peevy. Well, we'll

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Speaker 1: see how it goes. But overall, I mean there one

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Speaker 1: through three is looking really good with these additions, and

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Speaker 1: of course you're number one. Garrett Crochet, Lancy, you gotta

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Speaker 1: tell me here. I will m Garrett Crochet as my

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Speaker 1: Cy Young pick last year. Is this the year he

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Speaker 1: can finally take it from the stranglehold that Trek Scooble

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Speaker 1: has on it? Is this Crochet cy Young year.

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Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be pretty difficult if schoo Ball

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Speaker 2: ends up throwing like one hundred and eighty plus. I

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Speaker 2: kind of us this sometimes as like the game of

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Speaker 2: golf within baseball, where it almost doesn't really even matter

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Speaker 2: how good Crochet is. It's kind of just like, how

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Speaker 2: do the guys around him? Do you know? I guess

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Speaker 2: I'm talking about like the Giant, the three starters with

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Speaker 2: the Mariners, all those guys I like a lot. I

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Speaker 2: think they all have a reasonable chance at Sai Young

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Speaker 2: maybe more outside school ball. If you're projecting it, if

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Speaker 2: you're creating like a cy Young pie, you know you're

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Speaker 2: probably putting schoobl at like thirty to thirty five percent.

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Speaker 2: I think you'd put Crochet around like twenty to twenty five,

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Speaker 2: and then you just go the field for everybody else,

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Speaker 2: which means like everyone else is probably around ten percent

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Speaker 2: or lower. So I think he's got the second best chance.

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Speaker 2: I guess that's That's what I'm saying by creating this

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Speaker 2: pie of sorts, it's just again, it's like if Kirby

333
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Speaker 2: is amazing with this lower slot that he had last

334
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 2: year after coming back from from shoulder issues, like he

335
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,560
Speaker 2: probably jumps right up and it's two three. Even with Crochet,

336
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Speaker 2: if Gilbert holds Velo and jumps back up, it doesn't

337
00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,040
Speaker 2: run into the Flextu issue he ran into, like he's

338
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 2: another good example if WU doesn't get injured. You know,

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Speaker 2: the common theme here I'm saying is just like you're

340
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Speaker 2: waiting for to see who actually puts up one hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty innings. And if any of those Mariner starters do,

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna give school Ball Crochet run for

343
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Speaker 2: their But I'd still handicap it at Schooball being the

344
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,720
Speaker 2: favorite and then Crochet right next to him. It's just

345
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Speaker 2: I don't know if it's so much about Crochet as

346
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Speaker 2: it is about Scooball. You know, like Crochet is gonna

347
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,840
Speaker 2: be good. There's not a lot that you look at

348
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Speaker 2: with him and you're like, this is how you unlock

349
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Speaker 2: another boost of whatever, you know, Like I guess it's

350
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Speaker 2: maybe figuring out how to get the KR back up

351
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Speaker 2: to like thirty five percent as it was with the

352
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Speaker 2: White Sox. But you know, he was pitching deeper into

353
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Speaker 2: games with the Red Sox, Like it's gonna be really

354
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 2: hard to do that. You pull the barrel right down more.

355
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Speaker 2: Maybe he cut it from like nine percent to seven percent.

356
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 2: I think from twenty four to twenty five, does that

357
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Speaker 2: go to like six percent? That's a decent way to

358
00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:36,760
Speaker 2: give him another probably half war, you know, but not

359
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:38,360
Speaker 2: only gets them to like seven and a half From

360
00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 2: a projection standpoint, school ball is like projected for seven

361
00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 2: and a half, so like his variance is like he

362
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:45,400
Speaker 2: kicks up to eight eight and a half. So again,

363
00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 2: it's really just more about school than it probably is

364
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Speaker 2: Crochet in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, in a way, it kind of reminds me of

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Speaker 1: Manny or Mairez and David Ortiz, right, those guys are

367
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Speaker 1: at the top of their game, top players in the game.

368
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Speaker 1: Back in you know, the mid two thousands, we had

369
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Speaker 1: these other guys that were just so good as well.

370
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Speaker 1: You look at Alex Rodriguez, right, Vlad Junior winning the MVP,

371
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 1: not like fled Junior vlat Lad Senior. Sorry for that,

372
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 1: you know. So it's kind of like that where you

373
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Speaker 1: just got so many good guys around you and you

374
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Speaker 1: could be as good as you want, but it might

375
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Speaker 1: just not be good enough in the end because you

376
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Speaker 1: got these freaks out there, you know. With Garrett Crochet,

377
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Speaker 1: you know one thing that's interesting with me, and I'm

378
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,360
Speaker 1: sure you've taken a look at it as well. His

379
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Speaker 1: four seamer last year he threw it over eleven hundred times,

380
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Speaker 1: but it was in my opinion, I mean, I don't

381
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Speaker 1: know if I'm reading this correctly, but it just felt

382
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 1: like such a hit or mispitch because he had a

383
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Speaker 1: thirty percent with rate on it, but batters are hitting

384
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Speaker 1: two sixty against it with a four eighty five on

385
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 1: the slugging it had a negative eight run value on

386
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Speaker 1: stat cast. You know, do you see him maybe keeping

387
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 1: up with that four seemer this year? Do you think

388
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 1: they're gonna start maybe decreasing it a little bit? What

389
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:56,360
Speaker 1: do you think?

390
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 2: Well, they killed it between twenty four to twenty five,

391
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 2: so I'm just trying to poke around and take a

392
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,680
Speaker 2: peak exactly what situations he's throwing it in. Yeah, it's interesting.

393
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,360
Speaker 1: It's like here, he threw the four seamer thirty six

394
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 1: percent of the time, and I had a negative eight

395
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,880
Speaker 1: run value on it. So that's kind of I'm wondering

396
00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,399
Speaker 1: if maybe he starts leaning more into the cutters and

397
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,879
Speaker 1: the sinkers and maybe starts using that four seam or

398
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 1: more as like a setup kind of a pitch. I

399
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:21,640
Speaker 1: don't know, I don't know, what do you think?

400
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 2: It's a good question. I mean, for the most part,

401
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 2: like I think I would just expect that to kind

402
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:31,160
Speaker 2: of revert because it's a good pitch and the shape's good,

403
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,159
Speaker 2: and like underlying stuff is just going to suggest that

404
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:34,879
Speaker 2: he probably just like was using it in weird spots

405
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,879
Speaker 2: or more so, from like a run value standpoint, it's

406
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 2: probably just resulting in things that weren't as optimal. But

407
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 2: like the raw whip numbers on it are pretty good,

408
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,400
Speaker 2: you know, So it's it's a great like I would

409
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,240
Speaker 2: be curious to see, like that was the actual run value.

410
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:48,800
Speaker 2: I don't know off the top of my head, but

411
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 2: I'd love to pull what like the expected run value

412
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,640
Speaker 2: is and whether he just got potentially a bit unlucky

413
00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 2: with it in situations, but he don't know.

414
00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 1: He expected to slug had a fifty percent hard hit rate,

415
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,680
Speaker 1: and the expected slugging was a four to seventeen. The

416
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 1: expected batting average was a two oh five, so definitely

417
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 1: some regression there. It's it's just interesting because his cutter

418
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: and his his sinkers last year they were just nasty

419
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 1: and you know, we'll see. But the question a lot

420
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,800
Speaker 1: of times like how like low can you get the

421
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 1: forcing usage? You know what I mean, Like he cut

422
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 1: it from fifty four percent to thirty six percent, Like

423
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 1: it is thirty six percent the floor, Like I imagine

424
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 1: that's one of his primary strike pitches. So in the

425
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 1: realm of just like cut the pitch that's not doing well,

426
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,919
Speaker 1: Like if you continue to do that, then he becomes

427
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 1: out of zone so much that the walk rate jumps up,

428
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 1: And is that actually beneficial to him? So this is

429
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 1: like the point like I think that baseball as a

430
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 1: hole has gone from this point where it's like throw

431
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 1: fifty percent fastball, you know what I mean, and then

432
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,959
Speaker 1: over time it's like, oh yeah, no, it should be

433
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 1: probably more like low forties. It's like, are we gonna

434
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:52,879
Speaker 1: give to the point where it's like everything should be

435
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,159
Speaker 1: low thirties and then the low twenties. My bet is no,

436
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 1: because at some point you're out of his own so

437
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,640
Speaker 1: much that you know you're just not as successful.

438
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 2: You walk too many guys. Guys aren't chasing you because

439
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 2: they know they could just spit on you. There aren't

440
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,720
Speaker 2: a lot of guys that could survive with like that

441
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 2: love fastball usage, it's more about like fastball quality, which

442
00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 2: is what I would defer to like stuff models on

443
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 2: and saying like it's a very good pitch, so I

444
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 2: would say that's more noise. But I get why looking

445
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 2: at it is like the obvious way to approach it,

446
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 2: where it's like, oh, if the forcing was just better,

447
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 2: he'd be better. But it's like you could argue that

448
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 2: the forcing was like good from an underlying data standpoint.

449
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 2: So do you just bet on that and assume everything

450
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 2: reverts positively for him? And then you know, if that

451
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 2: happens and everything else sticks, he's gonna be incredible.

452
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 1: Now I'm very curious to see, you know, how they

453
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: do it. I'm sure they are gonna make some kind

454
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,440
Speaker 1: of adjustments. I mean, it's so hard to build off

455
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 1: of what he did last year, but who knows, maybe

456
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 1: they got something cooking in the tank. But another guy

457
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: that I think all of Red Sox Nation is so

458
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: curious about. They've been so curious about him for a

459
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 1: few years. Now. Get in comparisons to Pedro Martinez just

460
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 1: three years ago, Brian Bao, Right, he is so in

461
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 1: interesting because he's always had this really solid potential and

462
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: then last year he saw his strikeout numbers dip, but

463
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 1: he worked more to contact last year. His change up

464
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 1: was kind of off. Last year he lost the grip on.

465
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: It showed flashes at times, but it was an inconsistent

466
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 1: pitch for him, working more to contact last year, getting

467
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 1: more ground balls. So we're all looking to see if

468
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 1: Beao can possibly take a step forward this coming year.

469
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 1: You know, the strikeouts dipped to in the six per

470
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 1: nine range last year. Very curious to hear what you're

471
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 1: thinking about Brian Beao. Are you more hopeful or would

472
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 1: you say you're a bit more concerned with his future?

473
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 2: I think I would have played Switzerland here and defer,

474
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: like I struggle with him a bit. He's a classic

475
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 2: case of like, okay, twenty two to twenty four, the

476
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: results weren't good and the peripherals were kind of okay.

477
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: So you're like, you're hopeful. You know, you're like, oh, man,

478
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 2: if he just regresses back to what he does from

479
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 2: like a like a strikeout comber standpoint, which is what

480
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 2: I mean when I say peripherals, Like we're talking about

481
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 2: like what the picture controls is what generally you're gonna

482
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 2: relyn a bit more from a projection standpoint than like

483
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: actual resulting ball in play. So the peripherals there like

484
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: look at him and go for those three years It's like, man,

485
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 2: this guy could be good. He could be good, and

486
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 2: then he's actually good in the peripherals. Last year safe

487
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,680
Speaker 2: for the most part, you know, it wasn't that great

488
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 2: because he wasn't striking out guys and he was walking

489
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 2: a bit. He did a good job of Homer suppression stuff.

490
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 2: So I struggle with him. I think that I would

491
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,159
Speaker 2: just defer to projections would have him and right in

492
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: like before the four two era area. I think he's interesting.

493
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 2: I'm always fascinated by these kinds of pictures who come

494
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 2: up with a weapon. He almost reminds me this is

495
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: a weird comp but like Logan Webb to some extent,

496
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 2: where Webb came up and was throwing like a bunch

497
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 2: of change up that and you're you're looking at him

498
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 2: and going okay, like his entire career will be built

499
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 2: around forcing change or sinker change, excuse me, and then

500
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 2: they'll eventually throw the sweeper. And then you look at

501
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 2: a web over the last couple of seasons and he's

502
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: backed off his changeup. He's like said that he's lost

503
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,119
Speaker 2: feel for it, and I wonder if there's some connection

504
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 2: there back to the fact that you're throwing so many

505
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: breaking balls that like mess up your hand feel on

506
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 2: your change up. In spring, it seems like the usage

507
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: there for the most part has been stable relative to

508
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: last year, Whereas if you can make the case the

509
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,400
Speaker 2: change up is like back, I would expect to see

510
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 2: him like ripping the heck out of that thing in spring,

511
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 2: where it's like whoa, Now he's back up to like

512
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 2: thirty eight to forty percent usage on the change versus lefties,

513
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: we didn't really see that. It's still around like twenty percent.

514
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 2: So if the fuel for that pitch gets better, then

515
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 2: maybe he has a better two strike weapon lefties. I

516
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 2: look at him and more so just go. I'm not

517
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: entirely sure if I love like the templative pitcher he

518
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 2: is from like a strikeout upside standpoint. You know, he

519
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 2: doesn't really have crazy spin. His breaking balls are fine.

520
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,120
Speaker 2: There's really no force seem in there that I think

521
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 2: could be effective long term. It's an okay pitch. It's

522
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: like kind of weirder low slot, flat approach. So he's

523
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 2: like sink slide guy, which I think will help versus righties.

524
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 2: But like the lefty approach is going to be a

525
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 2: big question, and I'm not entirely sure how good the

526
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: righty approach can be because there's not much strikeout upside

527
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,199
Speaker 2: again pushing this logan webcom go back and look at

528
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 2: what he did last year where he added a forcingman

529
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: a cutter, and all of a sudden he starts striking

530
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: out of the world, and it's like, WHOA, Okay, that's

531
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: how you access like the upper rum of performance. I

532
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: just wonder whether bos is gonna be stuck in like

533
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 2: this two war area, you know. And I guess I'm

534
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,479
Speaker 2: I sound critical of him in this sense, but like

535
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: I think most teams would probably take a guy who

536
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,919
Speaker 2: can post a four era and one hundred and sixty

537
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 2: innings makes twenty eight starts, doesn't have a ton of

538
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: variants on a start to start basis, probably doesn't have

539
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: the ability to get up to like three four war

540
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,719
Speaker 2: and end up being like a having a great, great season.

541
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 2: But I think he's just is what he is. That's

542
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 2: a bad way to put it. I just don't entirely

543
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: know if there's enough there from like a repertoire standpoint,

544
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 2: to really envision a season where he's like the peripherals

545
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: lineup and he has like another sub three five ra

546
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 2: to the point where it's like whoa, yeah, you know,

547
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 2: like he's amazing, Like I just don't know if I

548
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 2: see that. I think he's just probably like a four

549
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: or five in rotation, which again getting to the point

550
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: of the Red Sox being projected very strongly. He's fine,

551
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 2: Like he's a great picture to have as a four

552
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 2: or five, especially when you have guys in front of him,

553
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 2: if he ends up being a two or three rotations

554
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 2: where he run into issues and that's how you end

555
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 2: up being projected for like seventy two wins, which the

556
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: Red Sox are obviously not.

557
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think I think one of the big

558
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: problems with Bao is I think everything you just said

559
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 1: is correct. I think it's fine. But I think the

560
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: problem is there was this perception from the get go

561
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: that he was getting these comps to Pagro, like similar builds,

562
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: similar mechanics in a way, and I think that it's

563
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 1: almost like it it just hurt him from the get go.

564
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: It just it's just the stand like Page Martinez one

565
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: of the best pictures of all time, like this is

566
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 2: like this is always I always struggle with this, where

567
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: it's like there's a better comp there. It's just from

568
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 2: a marketing perspective, of course, it's gonna say it's better

569
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 2: to say he's Page Martinz. You want to comp him

570
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 2: to like is he Michael Lorenzen? You know what I mean?

571
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: You throw that compout? It's another right, who throws a

572
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: bunch of change up when he came up like that's

573
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: probably a better account from an appropriate as standpoint, but

574
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 2: it doesn't sound nearly as fun, so no one's gonna

575
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 2: use it.

576
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 1: Right, here's the comp that I came up with. I

577
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: think I might be on the right track here. I'm

578
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,959
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna give it a go. You had a

579
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,959
Speaker 1: first hand view of this guy for the Chicago Cubs

580
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: a little while ago, even when Brian Beao was coming

581
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: up through the minor leagues. I saw Marcus Stroman in him,

582
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: like I saw, you know, maybe like the ceiling of

583
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 1: a Blue Jays Marcus Stroman and like a floor of

584
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: like a Cubs Marcus Stroman. What do you think of

585
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 1: that one?

586
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: That's not bad? Yeah, see, that's like a far better outcome.

587
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: Like Stroman had some really good seasons. He had a

588
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: couple three and a half four seasons. He outpitched his peripherals,

589
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: which is what BeO did last year, where it's like

590
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: he controlled BAM and play really well to the point

591
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: where we were like, okay, you know, like maybe what

592
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 2: he's doing from a sinker slider standpoint actually is enough

593
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: to continually project him being better than projections. Then he

594
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: fell off pretty hard, and he had three four seasons.

595
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 2: You know, he made a bunch of starts, like he

596
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: was an innings eater, and I would say he's very

597
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: valuable to rotation, you know, ends up with like twenty

598
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 2: four if he ends up retiring like twenty five ish

599
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 2: war on his career, it's a very good career. But

600
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 2: like again, he didn't have a four plus war season

601
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 2: and he was more of a guy who was eating

602
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 2: innings and seeing as like probably you know, he's not

603
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: the top of a rotation guy if you're trying to

604
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 2: win a World Series. Most of the teams that do

605
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 2: that or have guys who can access like push to

606
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 2: five war plus, you know, but he's a very integral

607
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 2: part to a team, and I think that's fine. I

608
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: think from a results standpoint, I would take that compy

609
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 2: obviously over paid Martinez, Yes, I.

610
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 1: You know, I'm taking and people are gonna be like, oh,

611
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: Robbie Marcus Stroman, he was a lightning rod. Well, I'm

612
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: not talking about the personality. I'm talking about the numbers here, right, Yeah,

613
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: you're just as a four. I'm you know, I'm completely

614
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: okay with that. I take that as the four. But

615
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 1: we've also been paying attention to the number five spot

616
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: in the rotation this spring, and I gotta tell you

617
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: it's pretty refreshing from a Red Sox fan point of

618
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: view to be wondering who is gonna win the fifth

619
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 1: spot instead of who's playing third base for the Red Sox.

620
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 1: I mean, last year is a whole bunch of drama.

621
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: Alex Bregman comes in, RAFFI told, hey, you're you're probably

622
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: gonna d X here from now on, my friend. So

623
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: there was all that drama going on. So I gotta

624
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: tell you, Lance, it's pretty nice to be talking about

625
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: who the fifth starter in the rotation is gonna be

626
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: right now. Johann Oviedo seems to have the inside track.

627
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 1: They brought him in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates

628
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: this past offseason. Connolly Early is looking pretty solid in

629
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: the early going here. Peyton Totley. There's some improvements that

630
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: I'm seeing. Kind of wonder if he's more so a

631
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: good candidate start at Triple A to start off the year,

632
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: and you still got a couple of veteran guys like

633
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: Cutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval in the mix, fifth starter.

634
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: If you were to put your chips down, who are

635
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:33,479
Speaker 1: you going with?

636
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's got to be Oviedo out of

637
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: the gate. He's got one option left, which maybe would

638
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 2: suggest that he could potentially get Opts down to Triple A,

639
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 2: and then if they brought him back up that would

640
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 2: kind of be the last turrather. But it just makes

641
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: more sense to me to push early and totally back

642
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 2: to Triple A, to let them like season abit and

643
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: see if their performance sticks from prior season from twenty

644
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,239
Speaker 2: twenty five. So yeah, I mean to me, it's very

645
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: obviously Oviedo. I'd be kind of surprised if they want

646
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 2: another direction, unless like Oviedo just gets absolutely blitzed over

647
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 2: the next month and it's like, oh my god, this

648
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 2: dude can't keep on play, which I don't really expect

649
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 2: to happen. But yeah, he's interesting. He's again what we

650
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: were talking about like shaving forcing usage. But he's the

651
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 2: kind of picture that I think they actually kind of

652
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 2: like their foresemon, where this new regime has now come

653
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: in and gone, Okay, we're iding the fastballs we like

654
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: such that you know, maybe we still throw a lot

655
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,439
Speaker 2: of very little fastball relative to the league, but the

656
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 2: four seams we are throwing are the ones that we

657
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: actually think are good from a results standpoint. That's really

658
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 2: what I think a lot of these teams are getting

659
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 2: out by shaving forcing fastball. It's just like, oh, yeah,

660
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 2: all these pictures you had don't have good four seamers,

661
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 2: so why are they throwing them. Let's require the guys

662
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 2: that we think have good four seamers are the kinds

663
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 2: of four singers that work and throw them at a

664
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: reasonable amount as supposed to fifty to fifty five percent

665
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 2: of the time when they're bad. But I think it's

666
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: Oviedo getting to totally in Early. Those guys are really

667
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 2: interesting to me. I'm redoing like my top forty pitching

668
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 2: prospects right now and totally and earlier both up there.

669
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: The thing with Early that I'm having a little bit

670
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 2: of trouble reconciling is like his walk right at Triple

671
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: A was like fine, and then he got up to

672
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 2: the bigs and it was like what happened? But neither

673
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 2: of the strike turn right changed. So to me, he's

674
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: like existing in this very odd space. And again it's

675
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 2: a very small sample what we had in the majors,

676
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 2: so I'm just assuming it regretses back and he's more

677
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: like an eight to nine percent walk guy. But if

678
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 2: there's some realm where he can exist, like he goes

679
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: back to Triple A and he's walking guys out a

680
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: five percent clip, I don't know what happened from his

681
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: minor league career. This is mostly why I wouldn't say

682
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,239
Speaker 2: people were off him, but he was definitely overlooked from

683
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 2: a prospect standpoint where everyone was like, okay, fun left

684
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 2: a lot of shapes, you know, but like he's not

685
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: on Zono Lie, he's not throwing a ton of strikes,

686
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: so like, what's the projection here. It's like, cool, he's

687
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 2: maybe a starter, but if the walk rate kicks up

688
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: to eight to ten percent, it's probably not amazing, you know.

689
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 2: And then he gets up to the show and it's

690
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: like five percent walk rate. It's like okay, well, I

691
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: didn't really have that in the realm of possibility if

692
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 2: you told me he gets up to the bigs and

693
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: post of five percent walk rate, like he's the top

694
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, maybe even ten pitching prospect in baseball. So

695
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,719
Speaker 2: his location's numbers were great too, some of the underlying

696
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 2: stuff from what Fangrafts looks at location plus loved Early,

697
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: so I think that he's actually the guy if he'll

698
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,959
Speaker 2: be a Oviedo strugz Er, if there's an injury in

699
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 2: the rotation, he comes up first. In my totally is fascinating.

700
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: I love him. He's ranked high on my pitching prospect

701
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 2: sheet then a guy like Early because I think the

702
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: upside's insane. But the more I look at totally, yeah,

703
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: there are some minor concerns around, like what happens to

704
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,479
Speaker 2: the rest of the mix, which I would say sometimes

705
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 2: you call like the curse of the of the really

706
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: good fastball, where his hand comes like so square at release.

707
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 2: He is a bit of trouble getting into like other

708
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 2: shapes that are really good, and for the most part,

709
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 2: I think stuff models like everything he throws. But if

710
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: you were to just look at like raw shape relative

711
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: to velocity and not really consider the fact that he's

712
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 2: extending down the man like seven and a half feet,

713
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: which I think gives him a massive advantage. He doesn't

714
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 2: he doesn't have like crazy handfield Like look at go

715
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 2: to Savant and you type in their names and you

716
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 2: look at like the right side, you'll see that like

717
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: pitch plot, look at how much coverage I guess you

718
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 2: could call it Early has relative to Totally. That to me

719
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: is just signifying like how much you can actually create

720
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: from like a movement standpoint, including like seam shifted, awake

721
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 2: and all these other cool concepts, but like how much

722
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: coverage do you have in the zone, not from like

723
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 2: a raw location standpoint, but just literally if you set

724
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 2: up a plate and pro stuff and have everything like

725
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: separate to the edges, like Early is covering a ton

726
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 2: and Totally because of how his hand comes at release

727
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 2: is just much tighter than what he could do with

728
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: the ball. So I do think there's some minor limitations

729
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 2: with Totally, But I think the way to approach him

730
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 2: is to keep him at triple A and have him

731
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: figure out all the stuff they gave him last year.

732
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: They flipped his kick change up, they gave him a

733
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 2: cutter playing with a curveball, like he went through a lot,

734
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: so like maybe he's just the outlier guy who has

735
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: this crazy feel where he's able to get to a

736
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 2: bunch of shapes and I want there's got to be

737
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 2: something at triple A that clicks for him where it's like, no,

738
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: this cutter is great and now he can locate it

739
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: really well, or we love this curveball and it works

740
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: world the kick change up is actually the zone enough

741
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 2: to not just be like a pure chase pitch. You

742
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 2: have to look for something like that, whereas Early is

743
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 2: the guy you could just bring up and just challenge

744
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 2: and be like, Okay, is this five percent walk grade real?

745
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: Like let's find out, you know, because everything from a

746
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 2: mix standpoint for him is ready solidified totally very much,

747
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: in my opinion, is evolving. So the upside there is

748
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 2: far higher than in early from like a raw upside standpoint,

749
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: but early right now, if you give them each twenty

750
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 2: six starts in the bigs, I think would have better

751
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: performance than totally. So it's kind of like a weird

752
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 2: balance in my opinion between those two. And I'm kind

753
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: of fascinated to see what they look like in twenty

754
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: twenty six. Yeah, me too.

755
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: A couple of things about both those guys with me,

756
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: because I did notice the walk rate just for people

757
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: listening in the miners. Last year with Connolly early he

758
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: had a three point six per nine walk rate, and

759
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: then when he got to the majors it was under

760
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 1: two per nine.

761
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 2: The problem is that, like if you look at his

762
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 2: strike rate in his zone rate didn't change. The actually

763
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: got worse when he got up to the majors. So

764
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 2: the arguments I guess in favor of this walk rate

765
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: sticking would be there's something about where he throws in

766
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 2: the zone that the triple A zone triple A umpires

767
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 2: weren't capturing properly. But just look at it from like

768
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: a raw like he's below average strike rate, he's below

769
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:50,479
Speaker 2: average walk zone rate. There is a sample of pitchers

770
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 2: who succeed with that, it's just far less common. Is

771
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 2: there something he's doing? Is it catching is the catchers

772
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: he's working with, But there could be some element of

773
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 2: what he does that allows him to just continually outperform

774
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: his zone rate. The hunter Brown does this really well.

775
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: From the right side with the astros, he's like bottom,

776
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: He's probably like he's in zone less than like eighty

777
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: percent of pitchers in baseball, and yet his walk rate

778
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 2: is like better than average striking that Gavin Williams does

779
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 2: this as well, there are Freddie Pearowls isn't a good example,

780
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 2: like there are guys that do this. It's just uncommon.

781
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 1: Definitely something to pay attention to. And one more thing

782
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: with totally a story that came out in the last

783
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Andrew Bailey was talking about it. You know,

784
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: this passed offseason, a big goal for him was working

785
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: on the change up a bit more, getting the breaking

786
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: pitches going a little bit more so he can work

787
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: off the fastball. But Bailey said, one of the plans

788
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: moving forward with him is to kind of get a

789
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 1: little bit of Garrett Crochet at him, right, really go

790
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: focus on the hard stuff, right, not just the four seamer,

791
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: which is incredible, but also let's start leaning into these

792
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: cutters a little bit more. Let's start, you know, working

793
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: in a sinker and he's actually flashed at a couple

794
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: of times. What do you think about, you know, with him?

795
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: You know, sure, obviously you know, keep working on the

796
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: breaking and off speed, but what do you think about

797
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 1: him being just this like heavy hard stuff kind of

798
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: a guy.

799
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 2: I could work. Yeah, I mean we're seeing the Mets

800
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: and a lot of these other organizations go towards like

801
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 2: this three fastball approach. This is also why teams are

802
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 2: cutting forcing usage specifically, because they're just moving it to

803
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 2: other fastballs. So if you look at like fastballs as

804
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 2: a group over the last couple of years, it's actually

805
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 2: been flat. So a lot of times when I say

806
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 2: like cut fastball usage, cutting fastball usage is really what

807
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 2: I mean is cutting forcing usage and reallocating that to

808
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 2: pitches that just don't allow as many barrels. Totally's interesting

809
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: because that forcing fastball is probably the best in the

810
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 2: minor leagues. You can even argue right off the bats

811
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 2: were of the best in the major leagues. Yeah, So to me,

812
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: it's like, if there's anybody that's gonna throw a four

813
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 2: seam or a ton, it's him. So like I get that.

814
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,720
Speaker 2: I just I'm not totally convinced that like his sinker

815
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 2: is gonna be great enough such that I would throw

816
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: that to right handed hitters as a left handed pitcher.

817
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: And same with the cutter, Like the cutter looks fine,

818
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: but like by most models. I would bet the force

819
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: Seemer's better. So if there's a guy for them that

820
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: throws close to fifty percent for Seamer, it's him. To me,

821
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 2: it's a matter of like does he turn in Maybe

822
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 2: this is a weird comp but like, does he turn

823
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 2: into like a Brian Wu where it's like he's throwing

824
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 2: ninety percent forcing sync cut and it's like the other

825
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 2: weapons are like purely too strike. They never get to

826
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: the point of being great, and it's like this dude

827
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 2: is literally just like ripping fastballs, and it's like they're

828
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: so good in the angle he throws from, like Brian

829
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: Wo are so good that the ultimate concept of him

830
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 2: sitting around a crazy high number of forcings and sinkers

831
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 2: and cutters together can actually work. This would be very

832
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,919
Speaker 2: much against like the Red Sox philosophy, I would say,

833
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: but because they throw a lot of siders and breaking

834
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 2: balls and such. But I think it could work, Like

835
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 2: you could take the Brian Wu template and apply it

836
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 2: to totally if you love the sinker and the cutter that much,

837
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: such that like the ultimate package of him is maybe

838
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 2: a little bit weirder than you would expect off the back,

839
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 2: Maybe That's what Andrew Bailey's getting at. It's weird to

840
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 2: like say, this dude has one of the best fastballs

841
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 2: on the miners and then for them to be like,

842
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: we actually don't want you throwing you a lot like

843
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 2: that is another thing. We're singing baseball a lot, make

844
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: you forcing better, then don't throw it as much. It's

845
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 2: like kind of like a counterintuitive thing. But a lot

846
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: of teams are doing it.

847
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 1: I guess think these hitters, they're they're so good, right,

848
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 1: and like, even with as good of that of pitch

849
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 1: that was, and even when he was throwing it last

850
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 1: year when he got called up, it was electric looking,

851
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 1: but he just had not really a whole lot else

852
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: like to work with, and it just seemed like as

853
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 1: good as the pitch was, these hitters were just squaring

854
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: it up. And do you think that's kind of just

855
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 1: what it was?

856
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's a byproduct in fact that he

857
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: didn't have anything else, Like he just added the kick change,

858
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: He just out of the cutter, he just out of

859
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 2: the curveball, he didn't have the sinker. Like if I'm

860
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 2: totally the pitch up throwing, my entire life is the

861
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 2: forcing fast So if you tell major league hitters you're

862
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: getting a forcing fastball, like I think they can hit

863
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 2: it unless you're like a complete anomaly, you know, like

864
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: Hunter Greening maybe is a good example, Like there's very

865
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 2: few of those guys who can actually succeed throwing fifty

866
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 2: sixty percent forcing fastball. So that's really what it is.

867
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: It's not the forcingams bad, it's just that there was

868
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 2: nothing else in the mix to respect as a hitter

869
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 2: in my opinion, So like, yeah, of course I'm gonna

870
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 2: sit on the fastball. There's just nothing else in the mix. So,

871
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: like again to Bailey's points, like hard stuff, if you

872
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,720
Speaker 2: throw sync to righty's and then you throw cut to righty's,

873
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: is that enough to protect the forcing fastball. I think

874
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,240
Speaker 2: the answer is yes.

875
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: I think we can definitely both agree on the fact

876
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: that there is a ton of upside with this guy

877
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: and if he can get himself into like a three

878
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 1: to four pitch mix that is that is pretty scary

879
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: to think about that. But I gotta ask you this

880
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: one final question before we get out of here for today.

881
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: Right now, on fangrafs, the top five when it comes

882
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 1: to projected starting pitching staffs, we got the Reds at

883
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 1: number five, the Dodgers at number four, the Phillies at

884
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: number three, the Tigers at number two, and at number

885
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 1: one we have the Boston Red Sox. Do you agree

886
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:04,720
Speaker 1: with the Red Sox having the number one rotation, number

887
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: one starting pitching staff in all of Major League Baseball?

888
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think I do when you factor in projected innings,

889
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 2: if you were to look at like just a raw

890
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 2: perning basis, like if we could guarantee everyone makes twenty

891
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 2: eight starts. I'm not sure if I've had the Red

892
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 2: Sox one. I do think like the upside obviously, like

893
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: the Dodgers is fascinating to me. I think the Phillies

894
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: upside is pretty good, especially I Vandre Painter looks good.

895
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 2: You can take that five roll, so I would say

896
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 2: considering everything from like how you project innings and how

897
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 2: you project performance, yeah, and the other elements that I

898
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 2: haven't thought about among those top five teams, enough is

899
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 2: like the depth side, and I do think the Red

900
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 2: Sox have an interesting advantage there, especially with some of

901
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 2: the arms we're talking about, like what do they do

902
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 2: with santaval Oni comes back? When Cutter comes back? You

903
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 2: have these two prospects. We're talking about, like that depth,

904
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 2: being able to have like four arms by July that

905
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 2: you could pull back into rotation if Beo's running issues

906
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 2: or like someone gets hurt. Just feels inevitable on most teams.

907
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 2: Like that probably gives me a bit more confidence that, yeah,

908
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: there's a war there such that if they lose a

909
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 2: bigger piece, like if they if Sounny Gury gets hurt

910
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 2: and missus a month, you know, like they're not as

911
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 2: susceptible from like a if the Tiger's lost Fromber for example,

912
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 2: I think the Tigers would be more susceptible. Of course

913
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 2: they have rotation depth, but like I think Troy Melon's

914
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 2: hurt and they've run in some other things, and I

915
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 2: would say their depth is like less appealing than the

916
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 2: Red Sox depth. They've like Drew Anderson and some other

917
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 2: guys that I'm like not entirely sure how good they are,

918
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean, if the Dodgers are healthy and

919
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 2: everybody throws a hundred and eight eightings there, they're the

920
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 2: best rotation in baseball. It's just I think they've had

921
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 2: one picture throw over one hundred and thirty five innings

922
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 2: in the last three seasons and it was Yamamoto last year.

923
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, like, this is not gonna happen,

924
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 2: So I have to beat the Red Sox. I kiss

925
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 2: is my head's.

926
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's And I just want to clear this up.

927
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: But even though Fangrafts does project the Red Sox number one,

928
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 1: it's the entire staff, right, you know, for the Red

929
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: Sox one through three, Crochet, Gray Suarez, those three are

930
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 1: projected for at least a three f war with Crow

931
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 1: out of five, and then after that there is a

932
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 1: bit of a drop off. Bao Oviedo, they're in the

933
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: one f wour range, you know, Sandoval Crawford around there too,

934
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: and then totally early they're projected for half a war

935
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: at this point. But when you take a look at

936
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 1: the Phillies, their top four guys are projected for at

937
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 1: least a three f woar. The Dodgers have five guys

938
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: that are projected for at least two. So I think

939
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 1: for a regular season, yes, I could see the Red

940
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: Sox being projected for the number one spot, But when

941
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 1: you get to the postseason, that's where things can change.

942
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 2: I'd say I'd probably take the Phillies are Dodgers rotation.

943
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 2: If you were, like, you have a seven game series,

944
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 2: you need to line up pitchers, It's like, right, yeah,

945
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 2: take probably over any other arm aside from school. And

946
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 2: then like after that, it's like, no, I'd probably take

947
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 2: like most other arms over a Souarez great combo, I

948
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 2: would say, which is not not damning those two, but like,

949
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 2: they don't strike out a lot of guys, and in

950
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 2: the playoffs you need strikeouts. So like, of course I'm

951
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: gonna take a Snell. I'm gonna take you Ala mode,

952
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 2: I'm to take a glass down some of these other guys.

953
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, So that's where I think the difference is. Like postseason,

954
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if the Red Sox would have the

955
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: number one. I mean, who knows what the health of

956
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 1: everyone's going to be looking like at that point, But yeah, postseason,

957
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:11,919
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I would put the Red Sox at one.

958
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: I think I would lean a bit more towards the

959
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 1: Phillies of the Dodgers there, right, you know, Scooble and

960
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: Valdez Framer and postseason that's a nasty one too. But

961
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: for the regular season, I do think at least top

962
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 1: three for the Red Sox is very fair. So I'm

963
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: excited about it. I gotta say, I'm pretty excited about it.

964
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 1: It's been a while since the Red Sox have had

965
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 1: this good looking starting pitching, right. You got to go back,

966
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 1: you know, to to the Beckett Lester's right, to the

967
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 1: sales price, you know, having Porcelo in the mix there too.

968
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 1: It's nice to have a good rotation, Lance. It makes

969
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 1: me happy, it makes me feel good, right, But that

970
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 1: is all we got here for today.

971
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 2: Lance.

972
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: Let the people at home know where can they find you?

973
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: On YouTube, sub stack, wherever else you may be.

974
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, my name is pretty much everywhere, so like Lance Bros.

975
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 2: Not my name is everywhere. But you get what I'm saying, Like,

976
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: that's this my channel in my substack lance Bras dot

977
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 2: substack dot com YouTube channels. So those are my two

978
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: main ventures this year that I'm trying to push. So

979
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 2: if you enjoy what I've talked about here and ramped about,

980
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 2: I think you'll enjoy both those channels.

981
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, the fantastic And are you still going to

982
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: be working with Marquee this year?

983
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 2: Yep? I will, Yeah, yeah, I'll be doing a lot

984
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:23,800
Speaker 2: of like pregame stuff and whatnot. So if you're in

985
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 2: the Chicago market and you have Marquee, you'll see me.

986
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 2: Otherwise you can't really access some of the stuff we do,

987
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 2: although I think out of market we put our pregame

988
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 2: shows on MLB TV, So if you are watching a

989
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 2: pregame show to a Cubs game for some reason as

990
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 2: a Red Sox fan, perhaps you find some interest in

991
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 2: listening to me babble about stats and whatnot. But yeah,

992
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 2: I do work for the Cubs rsent.

993
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 1: I've always had a soft spot for the Cubbies ever

994
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:46,240
Speaker 1: since you know three, when that whole thing was going

995
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: down with Bartman and the Red Sox having Boone, I've

996
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: always had a soft spot for.

997
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 2: Them, Rama Bunding, you know what I mean. Like these

998
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 2: two franchises that comes to the Red Sox have been

999
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,479
Speaker 2: for so much fun.

1000
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 1: Fact, the only obviously I've had a lot of Red

1001
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 1: Sox jerseys in my time, but the only other time

1002
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: where I've had another team's jersey was a Chicago Cubs jersey.

1003
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 1: Believe it or not. Fun story, I wore a Red

1004
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: Sox shirt jersey to school every single day and my

1005
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: mom she was at I think like a Ross dress

1006
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 1: for less or like a Marshal's or something, and she

1007
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: just randomly bought me this Chicago Cubs jersey and she's like, here,

1008
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: I got you this baseball jersey. I was like, that's

1009
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 1: not the right team, mom, that's the Cubs.

1010
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 2: I do like.

1011
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: I do like the Cubs, right. You know, you go

1012
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: back to the days of you know, Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee.

1013
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: I like those Cubs looking team. So I wore it

1014
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 1: to school one day and everyone was freaking out, like, Robbie,

1015
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: what's going on here? Have you changed your affiliation with

1016
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: your favorite team?

1017
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 2: Was?

1018
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:47,479
Speaker 1: Everyone was melting down because I was wearing a Cubs

1019
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 1: jersey to school. That was the first and last time

1020
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 1: I ever wore a different jersey. So that's all we

1021
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: got here for today. Be kind of the way out.

1022
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 1: Hit the like button, subscribe if you new we're trying

1023
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,320
Speaker 1: to get the seven K by opening day. If you

1024
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: can hit that for us, I'll love you forever. But everybody,

1025
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 1: that's all we got. We'll talk to you next time.