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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. I have an amazing

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Speaker 1: show for Abody today. What'll be Crystal?

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Speaker 2: Indeed, we do so rocky start to the negotiations yesterday,

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Speaker 2: but Jadie Mann's this Morning is claiming that progress was made.

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Speaker 2: Jeremy Scahill is going to join us to break down

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Speaker 2: what we know. Hawks, of course, still out there doing

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Speaker 2: their thing. Lindsey Graham with some interesting comments which we

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Speaker 2: are forced to take note of. Polling shows the American

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Speaker 2: people correctly believe that the Iran war was a completely disaster,

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Speaker 2: which we've lost, so they are in touch with reality.

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Speaker 2: There new frightening revelations about anthropics myth thos. Also Trump

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Speaker 2: weighing in on their decision to effectively block their latest release,

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Speaker 2: Fable five. National Guard has been deployed to the reflecting pool.

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Speaker 2: Make sure there's no saboteurs. Figure out what's going on.

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Speaker 2: Trump is saying, now they're going to have to drain

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Speaker 2: it again. He's like making up all sorts of conspiracy

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Speaker 2: theories about Antifa, you know, messing up the reflecting pool. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: it's a silly story, but we have to pay attention

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Speaker 2: to it because he made such a big deal about it.

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Speaker 2: So here we are, and then there are big primary

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Speaker 2: elections in New York City this week. Zoran has endorsed

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Speaker 2: a number of candidates in their primary races. Two of

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Speaker 2: those candidates are going to join Me and Ryan Live.

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Speaker 2: That would be Claire Valdez and Daria Eliza. So the

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Speaker 2: show is going to be a little bit late because

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Speaker 2: we're talking about two campaigns day before election day, so

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Speaker 2: we needed to work with their schedule. So the show

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Speaker 2: we'll go out a little bit later than usual, but

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Speaker 2: I think it will be worth it.

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Speaker 3: In the end.

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Speaker 1: That's right. We're doing our best to hear premium subscribers,

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Speaker 1: but at least we're keeping you updated and we'll be

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Speaker 1: putting out this first part a little bit early. Please

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the show Breakingpoints dot com. We'll be doing

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Speaker 1: our live ama tomorrow if you want to support us.

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Speaker 1: And if you're watching this on YouTube, hit subscribe to

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Speaker 1: please share an episode with a friend. Ratest five stars.

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Speaker 1: It really helps other people find the show. But let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and kick it off with this morning. Literally

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Speaker 1: just minutes ago, the Vice President giving a press conference

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Speaker 1: updates from these high level negotiations between who is it Pakistan, Qatar,

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Speaker 1: the Iranians, and the United States.

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Speaker 3: So it was a little bit touch and go yesterday.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a moment, but the Vice

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Speaker 2: President this morning is claiming some significant progress.

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Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and play a one.

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Speaker 4: Yesterday was a very very good day. We made a

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Speaker 4: lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted

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Speaker 4: to do, which is accomplish four things for the American people. First,

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Speaker 4: we wanted to build a mechanism for keeping the straight

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Speaker 4: of Horror moves open, it is open. We've seen, of course,

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Speaker 4: gas prices and oil prices come down, millions and millions

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Speaker 4: of barrels of crude and natural gas flowing through the

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Speaker 4: straight of horror mooves that weren't flowing before. But we

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Speaker 4: also wanted to make sure that we actually set up

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Speaker 4: the coordination mechanism so that we could demine the straits

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Speaker 4: of horror moves, so that when there are the conflicts

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Speaker 4: that inevitably come up, we can make sure we work

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Speaker 4: through them rather than that leading to escalation. And that

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Speaker 4: is exactly what we did yesterday.

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Speaker 5: Number two.

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Speaker 4: We also wanted to build a mechanism, a similar mechanism

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Speaker 4: for deconfliction for the regional ceasefire. As the President of

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Speaker 4: the United States has himself said, sometimes these ceasefires just

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Speaker 4: mean you're shooting a little bit less. But we wanted

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Speaker 4: to make sure that we had the proper coordination set

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Speaker 4: up so that if there is shooting, if Hesbeala fires

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Speaker 4: at Israel, or if Israel responds, if there are other

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Speaker 4: conflicts that arise in the region, we're actually talking to

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Speaker 4: each other and figuring out how to stop the shooting,

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Speaker 4: how to make the region safer.

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Speaker 1: Our allies and everybody else.

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Speaker 5: We set that up as well.

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Speaker 4: Number three, we and this is probably what we're most

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Speaker 4: excited about as Americans. The Iranians have agreed to invite

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Speaker 4: IAEA inspectors back into their country as a major milestone

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Speaker 4: for the American people and the first step in permanently

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Speaker 4: denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran.

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Speaker 2: So the Vice President, they're selling the Iranians willingness to

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Speaker 2: allow IAEA inspectors in as a big win for the US.

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Speaker 2: Of course, this was the sort of thing that was

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Speaker 2: on the table before all the bombs fell. But nevertheless,

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Speaker 2: let's put that aside. The other piece that he really

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Speaker 2: elaborates there is this deconfliction process in what he describes

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Speaker 2: as a regional ceas fire course that centers on Israel

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Speaker 2: and Lebanon and their continued bombing of Hesbala and of

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Speaker 2: Bayrout and the southern Lebanon area. He was asked to

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Speaker 2: elaborate further on that, obviously that being a very key

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Speaker 2: piece of whether or not this deal will go forward.

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Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

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Speaker 1: Would you describe the progress on Lebanon?

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Speaker 5: I know, Mistarah, she said it was very good progress.

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Speaker 5: But what's your characterization of it. Yeah, I would describe

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Speaker 5: it as very good progress too.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, we want a regional ceasefire, right, We

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Speaker 4: want Hesbela to stop firing at our friends in Israel.

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Speaker 4: We want Israelis to be able to live in peace.

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Speaker 4: We also want to make sure that, you know, when

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Speaker 4: things happen, they don't spiral into a broader escalation. And

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Speaker 4: so we've been I think, very good at setting up

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Speaker 4: what we're calling a deconfliction mechanism. But what it really

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Speaker 4: is is to say that when things happen, the sides

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Speaker 4: are actually talking to one another. Sometimes you know, you've

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Speaker 4: got a bit of a chicken an egg problem that

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Speaker 4: you've got a junior guy who fires a drone that

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Speaker 4: didn't have approval from the high command.

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Speaker 5: Okay, of course Israel has to.

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Speaker 6: Respond to that, But then sometimes that response we could

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Speaker 6: actually have a better and more peaceful situation if Israel

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Speaker 6: responds in the context of a conversation that's ongoing between Hesbela, Lebanon,

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Speaker 6: Israel and other partners in the region. There really hasn't

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Speaker 6: been a mechanism to have those discussions until basically around

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Speaker 6: four PM yesterday Bergenstock time.

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Speaker 5: When we set that up.

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Speaker 3: So that is the US side.

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Speaker 2: The joint mediator's Kata and Pakistan also put out a statement,

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Speaker 2: we can put a zero up on the screen. A

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Speaker 2: lot of this is I'll read a little bit of those.

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Speaker 2: The first session of high level talks under the framework

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Speaker 2: have concluded with the participation of representatives of the Islamic

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Speaker 2: Republic of Iran, United States of America and the two

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Speaker 2: mediating parties. Was conducted in a positive and constructive atmosphere.

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Speaker 2: Encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a

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Speaker 2: mechanism for further technical talks.

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Speaker 3: A lot of this is sort of like the first

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Speaker 3: day of.

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Speaker 2: Class when you like get the syllabus to establish the

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Speaker 2: rules of the road. That's sort of what we're talking

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Speaker 2: about here. Let's put the next element up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: This is the reaction from the Iranian side. They are

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Speaker 2: also This is a Rachi foreign minister also touting progress here.

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Speaker 2: He says a tireless Pakistani and Katari mediation is delivered.

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Speaker 2: Major progress to end the Lebanon war, oil and PETROCM

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Speaker 2: exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and

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Speaker 2: major reconstruction and development plan launched for Iran first real

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Speaker 2: test Lebanon deconfliction cell, which I think is probably spot on.

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Speaker 2: So you can see Sager both sides sort of touting

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Speaker 2: the things that they see that they're getting out of

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Speaker 2: these negotiations after the first day.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, my immediate reaction actually, first of all, obviously the

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Speaker 1: Vice president of the American side really needs positivity for

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Speaker 1: the oil market, especially considering all the chaos that we're

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Speaker 1: about to go through. But from the Iranian side, you know,

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Speaker 1: setting things up for a deconfliction cell the way that

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Speaker 1: the Vice President I'm reading some more of his comments

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Speaker 1: by text this morning, sold it is basically like that

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Speaker 1: hotline that the US and the Kremlin have to avoid

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Speaker 1: nuclear conflict. It allows a formal mechanism through which if

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Speaker 1: something kicks off in Lebanon, the United States, Qatar, Pakistan, Israel,

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Speaker 1: and Hezbol or presumably Iran as well, are all in

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Speaker 1: some sort of you know, mechanism, things to be like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: here's how we're going to work out now. This requires

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Speaker 1: an immense amount of trust to say that the Israelis

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Speaker 1: will be doing that properly, and we'll show you all

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Speaker 1: here in a little bit, the way that they're sounding,

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Speaker 1: the way that they will approach this in their own country,

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Speaker 1: So don't trust them for a single second. But it

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Speaker 1: does show a couple of immediate real at least in

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Speaker 1: the interim, a actual dedication to wanting to rein in

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Speaker 1: the Lebanon conflict. But that remains the single biggest problem.

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Speaker 1: I will say. On the technical side, one detail that's

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Speaker 1: very important from what you read there about the actual

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Speaker 1: way that this is going to be worked out, And

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Speaker 1: actually this should give you more of confidence in this.

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Speaker 1: Is it effectively right now? The United States is delegating

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Speaker 1: the technical responsibility of the details to katar and to

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Speaker 1: Pakistan who actually have worked genuinely, tirelessly over the laste

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Speaker 1: hundred days or so to get us to this moment.

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Speaker 1: If it was just up to Jared and Wikoff, we're

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Speaker 1: screwed in terms of the seriousness of whether that's going

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Speaker 1: to happen. However, when you have the Pakistanis and the Kataris,

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Speaker 1: who over the next sixty days will be actually be

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Speaker 1: negotiating a lot of this stuff, and you get the

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Speaker 1: IAEA back involved, then it is very possible that we

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Speaker 1: actually could end up with some sort of technical deal.

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Speaker 1: So that's actually a very positive in my opinion from

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Speaker 1: the US. But overall, I mean, this is the vice president,

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Speaker 1: he's not the president. And as we're all about to

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Speaker 1: show you, you know, I have no doubt in my

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Speaker 1: mind if JD. Vance was the president of the United States,

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Speaker 1: we wouldn't have much. First of all, I don't think

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Speaker 1: we'd be in this damn war. But second, I don't

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Speaker 1: think that we'd be having all this like will they

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Speaker 1: won't they? Or any of this. He has made repeated

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Speaker 1: statements about Israel's just like any of the country. They

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Speaker 1: have a right to self defense, so does everybody in

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Speaker 1: the region. You're like, oh, what was that, you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of sometense. But Trump can change his mind

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Speaker 1: at any moment. The same guy who got us into

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Speaker 1: this mess in the first place. And as we're all

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Speaker 1: about to show you, nearly destroyed the talks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: do you think that JD in the middle of the

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Speaker 1: talks would lean across the table and threaten to kill

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Speaker 1: the negotiators. Probably not, But that's what Trump did literally

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Speaker 1: while the negotiations were in route, which kicked off this

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Speaker 1: whole will they won't they? Mess as it starts. So

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Speaker 1: that's the problem is Trump is the wildcard on top

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Speaker 1: of all of this, and ultimately he can very easily

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Speaker 1: kill this entire thing. He's the leader, he's the president.

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Speaker 1: We're looking and trying to analyze the words of the

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Speaker 1: Vice president. I have no doubt that he actually wants

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Speaker 1: the deal. Where's the Secretary of State, national Security advisor,

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Speaker 1: the most powerful national security officials in.

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Speaker 3: Fifty years, taking a backseat with you and I.

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Speaker 1: Are too, But he's still there. Yeah, you know, right

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Speaker 1: now he was on the phone to Columbia, you know, like,

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Speaker 1: but maybe he'll turn around and he'll take a look

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Speaker 1: over there. You know. We're going to do an entire

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Speaker 1: segment soon about all the Hawks and their plans. So

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Speaker 1: I like, do not count these people out? Yeah, not

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Speaker 1: just the Israel lobby, but a lot of the elements

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Speaker 1: in the Trump administration too.

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Speaker 2: The absolutely the two big confounding factors here are Trump's

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Speaker 2: ego and Israel. And Trump's ego really reared its ugly

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Speaker 2: head yesterday and threatened to blow up the talks before

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Speaker 2: they even began. He did an interview with Fox News

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Speaker 2: is Terrey kingst and threatened the Iranians. That understandably caused

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Speaker 2: a lot of upset from them. It actually is in

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Speaker 2: violation of the terms of the fourteen point deal, the

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Speaker 2: first element I believe of which is, hey, we're not

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Speaker 2: going to threaten each other us anymore. Trump violates that immediately.

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Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to a two.

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Speaker 7: President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials

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Speaker 7: overnight and said, you close it, and you won't have

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Speaker 7: a country. He went on to tell these officials, you

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Speaker 7: won't even make it back to your effing country now.

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Speaker 7: Earlier today, Iran's president Masoud Pazeskian said this about Iranian

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Speaker 7: enrichment of uranium. The President also reacting to that, take

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Speaker 7: a listen.

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Speaker 8: We will not give up our right to enrichment, and

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Speaker 8: they two will be forced to accept it. You all

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Speaker 8: know what the so called president of the United States

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Speaker 8: was saying. He had made a complete one hundred degree turn.

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Speaker 8: He was saying that Iran must surrender unconditionally. Iran has

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Speaker 8: no right to do this. It has no right to

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Speaker 8: do that.

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Speaker 7: President Trump, during our call responded directly to those comments

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Speaker 7: by Iranian President Masud Pozeshkian. President Trump told Fox News,

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Speaker 7: he'd better watch his mouth. He'd better shape up or

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Speaker 7: will take over the rest of the country.

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Speaker 2: Better shape bub to literally murder them before they leave

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Speaker 2: the negotiation, so obviously not helpful. He also posted this

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Speaker 2: true social look put us up on the screen and

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Speaker 2: I Ran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in

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Speaker 2: Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we will hit

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Speaker 2: Iron very hard again, just like we did last week,

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Speaker 2: only harder so threatening them also over Lebanon. Iran appeared

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Speaker 2: early on to walk out, and actually there were multiple

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Speaker 2: news reports in Wall Street Journal and other you know,

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Speaker 2: mainstream outlets and in Iranian media claiming that they had

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Speaker 2: walked out of the negotiations all together before they even commenced.

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Speaker 2: We can put a four up on the screen. You

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Speaker 2: can see the moment when that's a Rachi on the screen.

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Speaker 2: There he's meeting, you know, he's speaking with a Pakistani

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Speaker 2: official and then he exits the room. There was also

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Speaker 2: a whole thing about, you know, they didn't do the

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Speaker 2: photo op gollyboff didn't do the photo op that they

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Speaker 2: were supposed to do in Possessikin as well. But it

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Speaker 2: appears that after this initial situation t J. Evans getting

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Speaker 2: the word, They're like, uh, what is this happening? What's

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Speaker 2: going on? And he comes over and speaks with one

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Speaker 2: of the officials to figure out what is happening. But

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Speaker 2: apparently after this initial walkout, they did come back to

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Speaker 2: the table and continue the discussions. We can also put

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Speaker 2: a five up on the screen here. This is over

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Speaker 2: the Lebanon issue, which continues to be a major problem

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Speaker 2: because Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon, which also appears

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Speaker 2: to be in violation of the terms of the memorandum

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Speaker 2: of Understanding that was signed that says that Lebanese national

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Speaker 2: sovereignty will be respected. I would think that would require

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Speaker 2: an invading army to withdraw from the territory. In any case,

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Speaker 2: Aron said that it was closing the Straight of Hormuz

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Speaker 2: over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Let's put a six up

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Speaker 2: on the screen here, just to take a look at

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Speaker 2: the tanker traffic. American officials are really trying to tell

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Speaker 2: it tho the straights back open and vessels are transiting through.

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Speaker 2: You can see that we are nowhere near back to

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Speaker 2: the levels that things were at, or to the closure

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Speaker 2: of the Strait of Horbooz, so we're in a bit

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Speaker 2: of a Schirdinger's Straight of Hornebos. The situation right now,

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Speaker 2: is it open as it cloths? Hard to say, but

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Speaker 2: perhaps Jeremy ska Hill can can illuminate the situation for

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Speaker 2: us as he always does.

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Speaker 1: It's open ish, you know, kind of open depending on

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Speaker 1: how you look at it. But as you said, we

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Speaker 1: got Jeremy here. I'm sure he's been on the phone overnight.

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Speaker 1: He's going to update us on the Iranian side, their understandings.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to it.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now is co founder of drop site News

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Speaker 2: and great friend of the show, Jeremy ska Hill.

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Speaker 3: Great to see Jeremy.

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Speaker 1: Good to see you man.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for having me back.

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Speaker 2: So what do you make of the on again, off

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Speaker 2: again nature of the talks yesterday Jade Vance's positive comments

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Speaker 2: this morning? What do you think came out of the

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Speaker 2: first day of negotiations.

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Speaker 9: I think it's important to remember there's a really ferocious

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Speaker 9: debate happening right now in Iran among the kind of

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Speaker 9: most important political echelons in the country, and there's a

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Speaker 9: very vibrant debate among the broader public in ire about

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Speaker 9: whether or not the Iranians should even be meeting with JD.

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Speaker 9: Vans or certainly with Donald Trump, given that they assassinated

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Speaker 9: the Supreme Leader of Iran and were responsible for more

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Speaker 9: than three three thousand deaths of Iranians during the course

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Speaker 9: of this war that began on February twenty eighth. So

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Speaker 9: even before their plane landed, there was a lot of

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Speaker 9: pushback on the idea that they would have any sort

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Speaker 9: of a photo op with Jdvans or potentially Donald Trump

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Speaker 9: if he had decided to attend. At the same time,

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Speaker 9: you had Netanyahu and the Israelis doing their best to

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Speaker 9: try to preemptively sabotage this by expanding their massive bombing

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Speaker 9: of Lebanon, their ground operations in Lebanon. And so even

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Speaker 9: before the Iranian plane landed in Switzerland, the Iranian military

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Speaker 9: had announced that it had closed again the Strait of Hormuz,

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Speaker 9: and so you had that as the kind of backdrop

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Speaker 9: to all of this. And so when Arachi and Galibaf,

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Speaker 9: the two lead Iranian negotiators, walked out of that photo

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Speaker 9: op and then marched down the hallway, it was multifaceted

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Speaker 9: rationale as to why exactly they did that, And you know,

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Speaker 9: I was told when there were reports emerging that the

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Speaker 9: Iranians had canceled the talk, a senior Iranian official told

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Speaker 9: me right away that's that's just simply not true, that

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Speaker 9: this was a an action that our delegation needed to take.

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Speaker 9: The Iranians still very much view themselves as having having leverage.

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Speaker 9: You know, you mentioned also Donald Trump's almost like sociopathic

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Speaker 9: threats to assassinate the Iranian negotiators if they didn't sort

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Speaker 9: of capitulate to his demands. This has been Trump's behavior

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Speaker 9: for a very long time, and you can contrast that

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Speaker 9: with the kind of level nature of JD.

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Speaker 5: Vance's talking.

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Speaker 9: And part of the reason why they have Vance there

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Speaker 9: is probably because Vance is able to kind to keep

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Speaker 9: a cool here.

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Speaker 5: And I think there are real questions.

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Speaker 9: You know, we talked about on this show before the

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Speaker 9: Iranians brought in senior psychologists to assess tunnel Trump, and

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Speaker 9: they felt that when the psychologists got involved that the

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Speaker 9: messaging started being received in a much better way. With

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump. They were talking about it clinically. When Trump

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Speaker 9: behaves like this and he's basically saying we're going to

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Speaker 9: assassinate you, it makes perfect sense why the Iranians would

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Speaker 9: believe that it's necessary to have psychological professionals involved with

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Speaker 9: these kinds of talks. And remember too, the Israelis did

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Speaker 9: try to assassinate the Hamas negotiators late last year in

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Speaker 9: Khatar while they were gathering to deliberate over a proposal

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Speaker 9: that Donald Trump had delivered to them. So it's not

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Speaker 9: just sort of empty threats being hurled out here. So

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Speaker 9: I would say that the current situation is like this,

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Speaker 9: The Israelis may be forced to cease.

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Speaker 5: Their fire for some period of time in Lebanon.

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Speaker 9: It does seem from what Vice President Vance said that

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Speaker 9: the US position is that the Israelis are going to

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Speaker 9: remain entrenched at least in some portions of southern Lebanon,

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Speaker 9: if not in all of the positions they're in for

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Speaker 9: the time being. They're talking about doing some experimental zoning

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Speaker 9: of a ceasefire. But the Iranians, I think, have made

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Speaker 9: it very clear to the world and certainly to the

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Speaker 9: United States, that they consider Lebanon a red line. Whether

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Speaker 9: the Iranians will allow the sort of negotiations to proceed

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Speaker 9: even while Israeli troops are entrenched in Lebanon is another question.

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Speaker 5: A Baserachi.

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Speaker 9: The Iranian Foreign minister did indicate last week that in

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Speaker 9: communications to Hasbolah, he said that this would be something

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Speaker 9: that would be addressed in the context of the bigger

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Speaker 9: negotiations over.

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Speaker 5: A broader deal.

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Speaker 9: So Netnyahu clearly is going to want to try to

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Speaker 9: sabotage this. As for the sort of particulars, yes, technical

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Speaker 9: teams are negotiating, but it appears as though the United

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Speaker 9: States again didn't actually bring its own high level nuclear experts.

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Speaker 9: You know, the Iranians again they show up with a

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Speaker 9: suite of individuals with PhDs multidisciplinary and the US largely

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Speaker 9: shows up with JD Vance and a couple of guys

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Speaker 9: carrying last week's golf scores. So it's, you know, the

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Speaker 9: idea that Jay Events has to be calling international nuclear

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Speaker 9: experts at two am, As he indicated in his press

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Speaker 9: conference today, that should really raise a lot of eyebrows.

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Speaker 9: Why isn't the US sending very serious negotiators on the

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Speaker 9: nuclear issue? If, as Donald Trump says, that was the

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Speaker 9: most important point of this at all.

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Speaker 3: Well, I you to do.

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Speaker 2: They can just dust off the JCPOA, get alowed to

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Speaker 2: go through, update.

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Speaker 3: The date change a little bit of language and there

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Speaker 3: you go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if anything, Jeremy, we already did it, so maybe

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Speaker 1: we don't need to worry too much. I had said

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Speaker 1: earlier in the show. I'm curious for your reaction. It

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Speaker 1: appears my reading is that they've just given up on

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Speaker 1: the technical details and they're going to allow Katar and

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Speaker 1: Pakistan to negotiate them with the IAEA, then deliver it signed, sealed,

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Speaker 1: and delivered. This kind of gives them a little bit

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Speaker 1: of removal from the process. Also, frankly easier to just

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Speaker 1: delegate much of this. Curious for your reaction to that,

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Speaker 1: That was my reading of the Pakistan memorandum.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean again, let's remember too that the Omanis

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Speaker 9: were really the expert mediators between the United States and Iran,

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Speaker 9: and because of Steve Wickof's behavior and the White House's behavior,

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Speaker 9: they toxified the relationship with the most knowledgeable force that

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Speaker 9: the US had been working with for decades on this issue.

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Speaker 9: The Kataris have really emerged as the primary mediators right now. Yes,

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Speaker 9: Pakistan gets to put its signature on these documents, but

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Speaker 9: it's quite clear that Katar is now in the prime

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Speaker 9: position taking the lead on all of this and I

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Speaker 9: think we have to remember again a concession that President

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Speaker 9: Trump made that is very important is that he basically said,

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Speaker 9: we don't actually need the enrich Uraneom to be taken

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Speaker 9: outside of Iran. You know, we could deal with it

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Speaker 9: inside of Iran. That's been the Iranian position going back

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Speaker 9: a year, going back many years when they're talked about

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Speaker 9: potential framework for negotiation. So the Iranians also feel that

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Speaker 9: they want a coup of sorts because Donald Trump is

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Speaker 9: no longer saying they're not allowed to do any enrichment

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Speaker 9: whatsoever if they reach a deal with the United States.

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Speaker 9: That's a massive concession if you just go back a

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Speaker 9: few months or even a few weeks to what Donald

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Speaker 9: Trump was saying. But I think your suspicion in part

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Speaker 9: is true. It might not be limited to the Kataris

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Speaker 9: or the Pakistanis. It also seems like the US wants

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Speaker 9: to kind of co opt the IAEA, which is supposed

436
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 9: to be a neutral international body, into effectively being the

437
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 9: US enforcer of this. That's why they're pushing for IAEA

438
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 9: inspectors or monitors to go into Iran very soon. But

439
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 9: you know, if you go back and you look at

440
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 9: the roster that the US brought just from an American perspective,

441
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 9: doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or a Republican. Just

442
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 9: look at it from a purely technical perspective. It's good

443
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 9: diplomacy and responsible state craft to bring actual experts that

444
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 9: also have security clearances in your country, that also know

445
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,119
Speaker 9: how to prepare information that can be brief to the

446
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 9: President of the United States. When you're outsourcing these core

447
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 9: issues that the President has defined as the single most

448
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 9: important issue to the IAEA or to Klatar or to Pakistan,

449
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 9: then you're sort of saying, well, we don't need American

450
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 9: expertise in the room. And it just goes to show

451
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 9: you again it's another indicator of how kind of fraudulent

452
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 9: the entire architecture of justifying this war was from the

453
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 9: very beginning.

454
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is so well said.

455
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit more about nnna Who in Lebanon.

456
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,439
Speaker 2: As you indicated, you know, they do not seem like

457
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: they are willing to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Let's go

458
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: and take a listen to a little bit of nanna

459
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 2: who's recent comments on that front.

460
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 10: As long as we need to protect our people, we

461
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 10: will remain in the security zone in South Lebanon. And

462
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 10: the reason, the reason is perfectly understood. No country would

463
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 10: be asked to do otherwise. Now you imagine the United

464
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 10: States across the border. You have thousands, an army of

465
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 10: thousands of terrorists who pellet your cities and your towns

466
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 10: with rockets and ballistic missiles and killer drones. They kill

467
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 10: your soldiers, they kill your citizens, they kill your children,

468
00:22:53,920 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 10: and they threaten them every day. Well what would America do? Say, Well,

469
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 10: there's nothing we can.

470
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: Do, Jeremy.

471
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 2: The Memo of Understanding explicitly talks about Lebanese sovereignty. Is

472
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 2: this going to be acceptable to the Iranians?

473
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 5: I suspect it won't.

474
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 9: I mean it will be if if, in fact, Donald

475
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 9: Trump and Jade Vance are able to restrain net Nyahoo

476
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 9: and the Israelis genuinely do stop firing, then I think

477
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 9: there is a window open where the Iranians can then say, Okay,

478
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 9: there is a quote unquote cessation of fire happening right now,

479
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 9: and now we need to address the issue of the withdrawal,

480
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 9: and that may buy some time. And again Arachi has

481
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 9: indicated that that may be the reality. The Iranians would

482
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 9: be willing to accept. On the flip side of this,

483
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 9: net Nahou in particular has a real expertise in violating ceasefires.

484
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 9: You know, Rafat a Larier, the Palestinian poet and writer

485
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 9: from Gaza who was assassinated by the Israelis during the genocide,

486
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 9: often remarked that the Israeli definition of a ceasefire is

487
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 9: that we fire and sees. And we're certainly seeing that

488
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 9: in Gaza, where the Israelis have killed more than a

489
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 9: thousand Palestinians since the so called ceasefire was signed in October.

490
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 9: And so I would suspect that if Netnahu tries to

491
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 9: replicate that definition of a ceasefire, that this is going

492
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 9: to become a potential deal breaker. Every single time there's

493
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 9: an incident, there's a parallel track happening, which, if you

494
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 9: listen to what President Trump and Jade Vance have said,

495
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 9: they're a little bit contradicting each other over the weekend.

496
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 9: In the messaging, Donald Trump is supposedly claiming that he's

497
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 9: going to get ahmedal Shara, the president of Syria that

498
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 9: he claims he personally installed in power, that somehow a

499
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 9: former al Qaeda leader is going to lead the charge

500
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 9: to dismantle and destroy Hesbollah in another state inside of Lebanon.

501
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 9: Sharrah gave an interview to Lebanese TV where he seemed

502
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 9: to push back against that and talked about respecting the

503
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 9: sovereignty of Lebanon and then saying that he's willing to

504
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 9: engage with leaders of Hesbollah and others, so at least

505
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,199
Speaker 9: publicly indicating that that's not going to happen, even though

506
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 9: Trump was sort of saying, Oh, the final touches are

507
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 9: being put on this new war. We're going to start

508
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 9: involving the Syrians going into Lebanon, which would be an

509
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 9: utter blood bath and an insane bit of lunacy even

510
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 9: by Trump standards. But then you have JD. Vance saying

511
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 9: some interesting things. He says that the agreement talks about

512
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 9: the territorial integrity of Lebanon. Now the Iranians say that

513
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 9: means you can't have Israeli occupation forces there.

514
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 5: JD.

515
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 9: Vance seemed to indicate that it needs to be aimed

516
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 9: at resolving the issue of Hesbolah. And this is why

517
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 9: there's this other track where they're trying to co opt

518
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 9: the United States and Israel trying to co opt the

519
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 9: Lebanese government under President Joseph Allun into essentially serving as

520
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 9: the Lebanese counter terrorism force that's going to go in

521
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 9: and crush Hesbola. So I would imagine what VANCE is

522
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 9: kind of trying to prepare the public for, or what

523
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 9: indicates the US position behind closed doors, is that they're

524
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 9: going to try to say, we can get the Israeli

525
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 9: to leave as long as the Lebanese army, which is

526
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 9: trained in part and supported by the United States, and

527
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 9: this is what Israel's been calling for, if we can

528
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 9: get the Lebanese army to come in and take over

529
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 9: Hesbela positions, that also is reasserting the sovereignty and territorial

530
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 9: integrity of Lebanon. That though, raise this questions of civil war,

531
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 9: civil strifes, civil conflict in Lebanon when you don't have

532
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 9: a political resolution in a Lebanese context to the question

533
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 9: of Hesbelah, which is not just an armed actor in

534
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 9: the region, it also has members of parliament affiliated with

535
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 9: it and up until recently was actually a crucial part

536
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 9: of the government before it was sort of forced out

537
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 9: of it. So it does seem like Vance's track on

538
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 9: this is to try to merge this secondary peace, so

539
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 9: called peace process that the White House has been orchestrating

540
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 9: with this MoU and the idea is that the US

541
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 9: could sort of pick two flowers with one hand by saying, oh,

542
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 9: we're stopping the Israelis from firing. And by the way,

543
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 9: the Lebanese army is now going to take up positions

544
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,679
Speaker 9: in the south of Leben, which will be resisted by

545
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 9: a lot of supporters of has Bela. So this issue

546
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 9: is going to get very, very complicated. It's the single

547
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 9: greatest issue that has the potential to blow the entire

548
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 9: deal up, in part because the Iranians have made it

549
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 9: abundantly clear that they view has belas their ally, that

550
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 9: they view has belas a party to this, and that

551
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 9: they view the United States and Israel in violation of

552
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 9: the deal as long as that war continues.

553
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, It's not like they're just going to surrender

554
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: their own like you said, there's look, this is a

555
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,479
Speaker 1: decade's long problem inside of Lebanon. They're not just going

556
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: to seed all of their own authority hard fought in

557
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 1: this particular case to the Lebanese government, especially if it's

558
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: under control of the United States. Last thing I do

559
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 1: want to clear up something I said earlier where I

560
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: mentioned that the Deconfliction Cell would include Israel. Currently, the

561
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: initial report Jeremy is that it actually won't include Israel.

562
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I mean, maybe that's a good thing,

563
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: if the United States were actually to tell Israel what

564
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 1: to do and what not to do. At the same time,

565
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 1: per Neett Yahu's comments, they're not going to stop the

566
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: number are the types of strikes they're continuing to do

567
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 1: in Lebanon. So it does seem as if that may

568
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: not be useful the so called Deconfliction Cell, if it

569
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 1: is not going to actually be able to restrain Israeli behavior,

570
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 1: which I feel like it.

571
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 9: I mean, it also speaks in part and again we

572
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 9: don't know what's happening behind the scenes between the United

573
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 9: States and Israel at this point, but the Israelis are

574
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 9: also ferociously trying to resist themselves being party to this

575
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 9: Iran deal. I mean, that's net Yahoo's messaging is that

576
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, as President of the United States, has a

577
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 9: right to make a deal with Iran, but Israel is

578
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 9: not bound by those terms. It's what he's using to

579
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 9: justify their continued presence in Lebanon. He's going to try

580
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 9: to spin any sort of agreement that he makes that

581
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 9: clearly is related to the MoU as having to do

582
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 9: with the bilateral relationship between the United States and the

583
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 9: bilateral relationship Israel has with the Lebanese government, and to

584
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 9: avoid it being that they're making some deal that's an

585
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 9: omnibus package. But in the issue of this deconfliction, when

586
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 9: they implemented a similar monitoring mechanism for Gaza, the fact

587
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 9: that they didn't include the Palestinian side sent a very

588
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 9: clear message that this was just a US Israeli project

589
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 9: that was operating under the veneer of being some kind

590
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,239
Speaker 9: of a monitoring cell. I think in this case, what

591
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 9: Vance is talking about with the establishment of this is

592
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 9: literally to try to stop the Israelis from blowing up

593
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 9: the deal and to try to have a mechanism to

594
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 9: speak directly to the Iranians. They also opened a line

595
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 9: of communication that has to do with the Strait of Hormos.

596
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 9: But in the broader picture, if we zoom up to

597
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 9: thirty thousand feet, I think we have to look at

598
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 9: this as kind of two separate but related tracks. On

599
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 9: the one hand, we have the short term realities that

600
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 9: the Israeli war in Lebanon has the potential to really

601
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 9: blow up this deal. And I would also add to

602
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 9: that Donald Trump's erratic behavior. The Iranians are fed up

603
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 9: with him making these public threats, and they're under pressure

604
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 9: from their own government. Remember, the Supreme Leader of Iran

605
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 9: did not wholly endorse this MoU He simply granted consent

606
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 9: for i Ron's political leaders to move forward with these negotiations.

607
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 9: And there are a lot of Iranians, including prominent members

608
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 9: of the Iranian parliament, who are adamantly opposed to what

609
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 9: Alibaf and Arachi are doing. Meeting with jade Vance, meeting

610
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 9: with the Americans. So all of those things together create

611
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 9: very unstable terrain that this is operating on. But then

612
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 9: in the longer term, yes, the Iranians do seem to

613
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,719
Speaker 9: be succeeding in getting some of their assets on frozen.

614
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 9: Jd Vance said this thing about they need to import

615
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 9: American soy, American corn. We'll have to see what the

616
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 9: Iranians say about about that deal. But in the longer term,

617
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 9: if this moves on and the Iranians are not getting

618
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 9: substantial sanctions relief and the nuclear issue. Donald Trump could

619
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 9: blow the whole thing up and say, oh, wait a minute, no,

620
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 9: we do need to go in and take the nuclear dust.

621
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 9: We actually have to send the Marines in to retrieve this.

622
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 9: The whole thing could go south very very fast. The Iranians,

623
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 9: the most important thing to them in terms of the

624
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 9: war is they feel that they've succeeded in restoring deterrence.

625
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 9: That no matter what Donald Trump says or Lindsey Graham saying,

626
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 9: oh so that the next step is Donald Trump's going

627
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 9: to go in and seize the Strait of Hormos. Good

628
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 9: luck with that without losing a substantial number of American soldiers.

629
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 9: I mean, that's lunacy. The kind of lunacy Lindsay Graham

630
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 9: has put a banked his entire career on. But just

631
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 9: to show you how the neokon nutcases in Washington think

632
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 9: about this, you just need to watch any comments from

633
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 9: Lindsey Graham. But I think the Iranians feel like they

634
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 9: have a win win in a sense. Yes, I think

635
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 9: they would prefer comprehensive sanctions, relief, a state of non

636
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 9: aggression with the United States, an ability to sort of

637
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 9: allow their society to thrive free of suffocating sanctions. I

638
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 9: think all of that is true, but it's also true

639
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 9: that there is political support at the highest levels of

640
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 9: power in Iran for taking a much harder line and saying,

641
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 9: if the United States doesn't learn its lesson, we keep

642
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 9: slapping them back, and by slapping we meet using the

643
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 9: option of military force or asymmetric tactics to shut down

644
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 9: the global economy as it depends on the Strait of Hormos.

645
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 2: That was actually the last piece I wanted to get

646
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 2: from you, and we could put a six back up

647
00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: on the screen. This is the tanker traffic through the

648
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: Straight of Hormves. You know, Trump and what I think

649
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 2: was an honest moment, said that he it would be

650
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: bedlam if we kept the Straight of Hormuves closed. The

651
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 2: oil markets would be a disaster. We know that oil

652
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 2: executives came to him and basically, like, listen, buddy, we've

653
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 2: kept it together here so far. Basically China has saved

654
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 2: our asses by reducing their imports of oil significantly.

655
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 3: But this can't go on forever.

656
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 2: What is your understanding of the current state of play

657
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: of the Strait of Hormuz. Because we talked earlier about

658
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 2: how Iran has said that they have closed it again

659
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: or limiting traffic again because of Israeli violations of the

660
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 2: MoU and Lebanon.

661
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 9: I mean, I think this is another staggering admission off

662
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 9: the cuff by Donald Trump, and it just shows the hubris.

663
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 5: You know, he thought, oh, this thing is all sewn up.

664
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 5: I have it.

665
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 9: The stock market's going to be celebrating me again, and

666
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 9: we're going to have the you know, price of oil

667
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 9: is going to plummet. And the Iranians and I think

668
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 9: they also understood the market manipulation tactics at play here.

669
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 9: I think they've timed their closure of the Strait of

670
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 9: Hormuz in sync with Trump's constant, recurring attempts to manipulate

671
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 9: markets by making certain decisions public on the various stages

672
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 9: of the negotiations. But I think it's quite clear that

673
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 9: Iran has a very firm handle.

674
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 5: Of control over the Strait of Hormuz.

675
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 9: This was something that the Iranians had contemplated doing for many,

676
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 9: many years. It's not like this was just something they

677
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 9: cooked up. When the United States and Israel bomb February

678
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 9: twenty eighth. They understood the global impact that was going

679
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 9: to have and they stopped short of doing this during

680
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 9: other wars. I think because they felt like this is

681
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 9: going to be a tool will bring out when we

682
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 9: feel we're facing an existential threat. And now that they've

683
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 9: done it, and now that they've emerged with their state intact,

684
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 9: with their government intact, and with the world being quite

685
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 9: nervous about the idea of another war in Iran, and

686
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 9: combine that with Donald Trump's admission about the actual cost

687
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 9: of this and how close the United States came to

688
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 9: an even further catastrophic economic situation, I think it ultimately

689
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 9: puts cards back in the hands of the Iranians.

690
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: Well said Jeremy, thank you for your analysis, man, really

691
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: spot on.

692
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 5: Appreciate you guys, thanks for all your work.

693
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: As Jeremy said, we really got to watch out for

694
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham. And that is exactly the plan that is

695
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: being hatched out in the open here in Washington, where

696
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: many of the Hawks are quasi endorsing the diplomatic process

697
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: that we just ran through. But they have an alternative plan,

698
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 1: an alternative plan that perhaps Trump has already opened the

699
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: door to. Here is Lindsay Graham on face the nation.

700
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: This weekend advocating for this new plan of just taking

701
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: over the entire Strait of horm Moves.

702
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 11: Let's take a listen, Let's try a diplomatic solution. I

703
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 11: think it's going to fail.

704
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 1: What happens next.

705
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 11: I spent four and a half hours with President Trump Friday.

706
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 11: Here's what I think will happen next. If this deal fails,

707
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 11: President Trump is going to take the Straight of horror

708
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 11: Moves over by force. The United States will control the

709
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 11: Strait of hormon Moves, will charge a fee for all

710
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 11: those who go three through to pay for the operation.

711
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 11: And we're going to expand to Abraham Accords and calendar

712
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 11: year twenty twenty six. We're going to get Saudi Arabia

713
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 11: joined the Abram Accords, and which is the biggest change

714
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 11: in five thousand years in the Mideast. And if Iran

715
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 11: contests control of the Strait of Hormoz by the United

716
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 11: States will obliterate them. So to all the people listening,

717
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 11: if this diplomatic effort fails, President Trump is going to

718
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 11: take the Strait of Hormones. We're going to run it.

719
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 11: We're going to try to get Saudi Arabia to join

720
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 11: the Abram Accords in the Arab Israeli conflict in twenty

721
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 11: twenty six. And if Aran continues to attack Israel in Lebanon,

722
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 11: the new policy will be will hit Iran.

723
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: The new policy will be will hit Iron if Hesbola

724
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: continues to hit Israel, and we'll just take over the

725
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: straight up removed. Now, obviously this is just completely nuts.

726
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 1: Taking over the straight by force. They act like it's

727
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,959
Speaker 1: going to be some sort of weekend adventure. This would

728
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 1: take hundreds of thousands of troops. Also, once they're there,

729
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: if the rest of Iran is not conquered, they can

730
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 1: use these little things called drones that we all just

731
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 1: saw to fire them from the inland to the troops

732
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 1: that are all stationed there. Brandon Wiker had actually laid

733
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,760
Speaker 1: all of this out initially when we were discovered discussing

734
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: much of this. It would be Gallipoli. It would be

735
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: a complete military disaster. But this is still something that

736
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: Trump is considering. Let's put B two up here on

737
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 1: the screen. He said it just yesterday. There will be

738
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 1: no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz for sixty days

739
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 1: during the ceasefire period. There will be no tolls after

740
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: the sixty day period has expired unless they are imposed

741
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 1: by and for the United States of America should the

742
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: deal not be completed. For services rendered as the Guardian

743
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes

744
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 1: of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs. Thank

745
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: you for your attention.

746
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 2: They really thank us for our involvement in the region

747
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: over the past twenty six years.

748
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 5: Yeah.

749
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: Great, thank Yes, we are the Guardian Angel, the Guardians

750
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 1: of the Strait of Hormons. It can make Marvel movie

751
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 1: about it, all of it would be funny if this

752
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: is not you know, this is the thing about Trump.

753
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: This is what we warned about earlier. Is yeah, right

754
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: now he's silent. If we were to think about Trump,

755
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: Trump is ultimately, you know, from the Apprentice, which is

756
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 1: probably the you know, sole reason why he's President of

757
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 1: the United States. What does he do? He auditions different things.

758
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: So you could think of the Iran war as an

759
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: audition for the Lindsay Graham and for Marco Rubio and

760
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: for himself of course, because he bears responsibility bb Netanyahu.

761
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: They obviously failed. So now he's like, okay, let's sholve Rubio.

762
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: Let's shelve that and let's break out the alternate cast

763
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: for the Apprentice Jadvan. But the problem is is that

764
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: he is like hovering on top of it, and these

765
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: nefarious actors Bbe and Lindsey Graham and the entire hawk

766
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 1: commentariat class which is seriously pushing this option, and it's

767
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 1: telling him, sir, you gave up to early, you can

768
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: easily go back to it. This is you know, I

769
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: gave an analogy in our last show about this, about

770
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: the First World War, where you know a lot of

771
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: Germans were shocked when they surrendered because they Germany had

772
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 1: never been invaded, so they're like, how can this be possible?

773
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 1: And that's where the Israeli idea, which they're borrowing from

774
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,879
Speaker 1: ironically from the Germans of nineteen nineteen, which eventually became

775
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 1: the Nazis, is the stabbed in the back theory, and

776
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 1: they were the only conceivable reason that they had to

777
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: surrender was that they were stabbed in the back, and

778
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: there were all these fantasy military options that they had

779
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 1: on the table which were all bullshit. But you know,

780
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: they get twenty years later they could be like, no,

781
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 1: we could have done this. It's kind of like lost

782
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: causers who like will analyze General Longstreet, Gettysburg. If you

783
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: had just done this, they would have won. I've met

784
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: too many of them. But the point is around this

785
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: is that they're creating a mythos in real time and

786
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: the power of that is really strong because thereby propping

787
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 1: that up with Fox News and then you will never

788
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 1: hear a defender of the deal on Fox News. You'll

789
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: never hear a deal defender of the deal even on CNN. Honestly,

790
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 1: it's insanity, Like did you see that Caitlyn Collins thing

791
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: where she's like, whoa what Ron has a right to

792
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: self defense? You're like, yeah, do is that so crazy?

793
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: But as this starts to bubble itself up, and let's

794
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: say things start popping off in Lebanon and the Iranians, oh,

795
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 1: I don't know, walk out because they're like, hey, that's

796
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: our red line. How easy do you think this will

797
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: be to cement into Trump's mind? It's going to be

798
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 1: non stop. Remember Fox and Friends, Brian kill me. He's

799
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 1: against this thing. He's been trashing it every single day.

800
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: You got Sean Hannity and Esse Jesse Waters seems to

801
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: be somewhat on board. I don't know, IQ is low

802
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 1: enough but then the rest of these guys like they're very,

803
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: very smart political actors. So I'm just I'm watching this

804
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: very very closely.

805
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 2: This is why we must protect Tree to Parsi at

806
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: all costs. He's one of the few reasonable voices just

807
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 2: because he's so impressive and elegant of a person that

808
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 2: they allow on to CNN at least in the mainstream press.

809
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: But the thing I note most about Lindsay Graham's posture here,

810
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 2: which is really we have to pay attention to as

811
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 2: he says, sure, let's try the negotiations. They're going to

812
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 2: fail not and he is invested in that failure. He

813
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 2: will be involved in doing everything he can and to

814
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 2: make sure that that failure comes to pass. We covered

815
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: last week, Netanyahu is pushing you know, Mark Levin and

816
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 2: Ted Cruz and their other sort of like bought off

817
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: or influence peddlers here in the US to make sure

818
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 2: they're doing what they can to undermine this deal. So

819
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 2: when he says they'll probably fail, it's not like he's

820
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 2: just some disinterested observer, you know, guessing what's going to

821
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: happen here. He is going to be doing everything that

822
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: he can to make sure that is going to fail.

823
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 2: We did have to bring you this though, because this

824
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 2: is an incredible turn of events for Batchet Ungar Sargan,

825
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 2: who has been one of Trump's fiercest defenders, you know,

826
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: saying that he truly is this this warrior, Yeah, this

827
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: warrior for the working class, etc. But you know, she's

828
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 2: also very pro Israel, and so she has been really

829
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 2: critical of the deal and the possibility of negotiations. Here,

830
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 2: let's go and take a listen to a little bit

831
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 2: of her commentary talking about what a terrible week Jadie

832
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: Vance had because he went out and actually said some

833
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: honest things about about Israel.

834
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 3: For one s with stigalism.

835
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 12: Vance implied that all opponents to this terrible MoU are

836
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,760
Speaker 12: warhawks who want a forever war and boots on the ground,

837
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 12: who have some kind of bloodthirst for endless Iranian deaths.

838
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 12: Just an appalling straw man. I don't know anyone who

839
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,880
Speaker 12: wants boots on the ground. The whole point of the

840
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 12: US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was that we

841
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 12: didn't need boots on the ground. And while Vance spent

842
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 12: all week talking about how cool the IRGC is, he

843
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 12: repeatedly blasted Israel, Israelis, and Israeli politicians inventing bizarre scenarios

844
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 12: in which he fantasized about how many Iranians Israel wanted

845
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 12: to kill. Here's how he ended his press conference.

846
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 5: Donald J.

847
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 4: Trump is the only head of state in the entire

848
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 4: world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at

849
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 4: this moment in time. And he happens to be the

850
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 4: head of state of the world's superpower. If I was

851
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 4: in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not

852
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 4: be attacking the only powerful ally that I have. And

853
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 4: anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the

854
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 4: President of the United States needs to wake up and

855
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 4: smell the reality of the situation that country is in.

856
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 12: Apparently, according to our Vice President, you got to hand

857
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 12: it to the Iranians for negotiating in good faith. It's

858
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 12: Israel that's the real impediment to peace.

859
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 3: Here's the truth.

860
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 12: Vice President JD. Bans just brought the Great United States

861
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 12: to its knees with a humiliating deal weeks before our

862
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 12: two hundred and fiftieth birthday. And he's decided, like many

863
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 12: before him, to blame Israel for the mess. His administration created.

864
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 12: If this was a dry run for twenty twenty eight,

865
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 12: it was at least very clarifying.

866
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 2: So in response to similar commentary from Batya, the White

867
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 2: House actually went after her aggressively with us a screen.

868
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 2: They say, the only humiliation here is Batchya desperately begging

869
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: for an additional brain cell because her failing TV show

870
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 2: is even more irrelevant than the likes of Caitlin Collins

871
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: and Fake Tapper. Only a moron of her caliber could

872
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 2: still doubt President Trump's leadership.

873
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 1: Agreed, unreal trust the woman.

874
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, this woman sucked up to them so aggressively. We

875
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 2: internally nicked named her bag dad Batia because she was

876
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 2: always on the pro Trump talking points, going on CNN

877
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: to make the case. That's how she ends up with

878
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 2: this news nation, gig et cetera. And after all of that,

879
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 2: the moment she criticizes them on one thing, they turn

880
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 2: on her and say she is a moron who needs

881
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 2: an additional brain cell.

882
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: Well, in some way, Look, how can you not love it? Right?

883
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 1: Because because currently the entire this is the thing about

884
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 1: Trump and the entire ecosystem, which genuinely makes this all fair.

885
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: In nineteen eighty four, because a month ago, she and

886
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: the entire neo connon dust complex who were defending the deal.

887
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: We're being celebrated really by these same White House accounts

888
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 1: and the people like us who were criticizing it. We

889
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 1: would be the ones under attack. But in the same

890
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 1: way that it's like, you know, Oceana has always been

891
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 1: at war with Eurasia or whatever. It's like, now that

892
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: the deal is Trump's policy, now you're doubting the president.

893
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 1: But that's part of why I love it is because

894
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 1: these same people, for literally months made it. I've said this, like,

895
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 1: have made a whole show about Trump is so independent,

896
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 1: he cannot be controlled. The idea that Israel controls him

897
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: is preposterous. He makes his own decisions. And then he

898
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,760
Speaker 1: did make his own decision, and he was like, actually,

899
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 1: the war that you guys wanted was a total disaster,

900
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 1: so we're going to try something else. So they cry

901
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 1: about it, and he's use the same logic. You can

902
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 1: actually see many of his own allies now or you know,

903
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: opponent or proponents of the deal, using the same language

904
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,879
Speaker 1: of police. They're like, why are you distrusting Trump? Why

905
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,240
Speaker 1: don't you trust the plan? You sound like a Panican

906
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: why are you not Why are you doubting the wisdom

907
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 1: of our great commander and chief. And he's the one

908
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: who selected our vice president, right, and so look, this

909
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 1: is why, you know, trying to engage in this like

910
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: who is the true you know, speaker for the czar

911
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: is ridiculous. Just say your ideas, like, say your ideas

912
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 1: on what they are. And if you don't, you know,

913
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 1: sometimes all the line and sometimes they don't. That's mostly

914
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 1: where things stand right now. But I mean, Tucker made

915
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 1: a good point one of the danger. Tucker made a

916
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: good point I think in his prelude to his interview

917
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: with Tretah where he's like, look, here's the thing about Trump.

918
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 1: Trump betrayed basically all of his own voters except for

919
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: these neo cons and so you almost can't blame them

920
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 1: for being mad when he also does the same thing

921
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 1: that he did for everybody else. At the same time,

922
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: you know, if we're being honest, everything they're saying about

923
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 1: the deal is correct in the sense that, yes, it

924
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 1: was an American humiliation, but it was an American ehaliation because

925
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 1: of you, and the humiliation is still somehow preferable to

926
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty thousand ground troops who have to

927
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 1: seize the strait of horn moves. But again, I do

928
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: think all of this stuff palace intrigue really interesting in

929
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: the sense that they were the last fierce defenders of

930
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 1: the Trump administration, and as we're all about to show

931
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: you with the polling, they could not. I mean, maybe

932
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: this is the final good thing about this. At least

933
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: we can see that the vast majority of the people

934
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 1: who sold this war, support this war, who are the

935
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: loudest defenders of Trump, are so deeply out of touch

936
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 1: with the American people that it is laughable when you

937
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 1: actually look at the polls. Nothing could be said, nothing

938
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: further from the truth could be said that Americans are

939
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 1: like crying about that. The only people crying are the

940
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 1: neo cons here in Washington and all over television. Yea,

941
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: you know, I literally long for somebody to be able

942
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: to go on Fox or CNN or anything and just

943
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 1: tell the truth for once about the deal. Not just

944
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,280
Speaker 1: treat on a weekend show. I'm talking about actual prime

945
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 1: time for one of it. Not that anybody's gonna watch it,

946
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: but the people who do watch it are the members

947
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 1: of Congress and all these others like some honesty needs

948
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 1: to be injected into the system. That's why when Jad

949
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:57,319
Speaker 1: just says the basic stuff about Israel, be like yeah,

950
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 1: they're just like any other nation, They're like, oh my god,

951
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: they have a total don't yeah about it?

952
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, and here's the thing too, Trump five

953
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 2: seconds ago was aggressively trashing Megie Kelly and Ta Carlson

954
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:11,319
Speaker 2: for being on you know, against the war. Now that

955
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: he wants a deal, you know, the people who are

956
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 2: on the other side are now suddenly the villains. So

957
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 2: I mean, there's no there's no through line here, right,

958
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 2: It's all just about where is he today and do

959
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,280
Speaker 2: you support that or are you critical effect? The only

960
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 2: way that you can stay in his good graces is

961
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 2: if you support the original stupid position and the new

962
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 2: better position, Like you can't have any principles or consistency

963
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 2: because at some point you're going to end up on

964
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 2: the wrong side of him, because he has no principles

965
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 2: and consistency, as evidenced by the fact that we you know,

966
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: literally played for you in the earlier block, how he

967
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 2: is threatening to murder the Iranian negotiators in Switzerland before

968
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: they even return home. So that is the nature of

969
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 2: what you sign up for when you decide to defend

970
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 2: this man and try to be, you know, in the

971
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 2: inside of the court and be one of the favored commentators.

972
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:03,240
Speaker 2: At some point, if you stick to any consistency at all,

973
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 2: you will end up being completely humiliated by this man,

974
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 2: because that's just what he does.

975
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 1: That's right, all right, Let's get to polling. Turning now

976
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 1: to polling. As we just mentioned about how wildly out

977
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: of touch the neo cons a our CBS News just

978
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 1: ran a new poll and even for them, remember this,

979
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 1: like zionist media outlet at least tried to do a

980
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 1: bit of a survey and found seventy eight percent of

981
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 1: Americans want the Iran war to end now, as in

982
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 1: right now here they are confronting Mike Waltz, the UN

983
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: Ambassador or the US Ambassador to the United Nations about this.

984
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

985
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 13: The war is unpopular, as you just heard, but how

986
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 13: it ends matters, As you know, CBS's Olivia Gazi's is

987
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 13: reporting that senior members of Trump's national security team, including

988
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 13: Secretary Rubio, remained doubtful Iran will comply with this deal's terms.

989
00:48:54,640 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 13: The CIA director presented Trump with intelligence indicating inconsistencies Iran's commitments.

990
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 13: So if even the president's own team doubts this is

991
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 13: a win, how do you sell this to the public.

992
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 14: Well, Margaret, I'll go back to other polling that shows

993
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 14: that the American people absolutely agree with President Trump that

994
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 14: Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Of course, we

995
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 14: all want lower gas prices. They are lower, below four

996
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 14: dollars and falling with more work to do. They're cheaper

997
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,279
Speaker 14: than under the Biden administration. We'll remember just a few

998
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 14: months ago when analysts we're saying oil would be upwards

999
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 14: of one hundred and fifty to two hundred dollars a barrel,

1000
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,760
Speaker 14: and it is not. It's now under eighty. Of Course,

1001
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 14: everyone wants cheaper energy. But what President Trump is doing

1002
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 14: is striking that balance with also ensuring that a genocidal

1003
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 14: regime that none of us trust can never have a

1004
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 14: nuclear weapon, and that process is underway right now as

1005
00:49:57,600 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 14: we speak.

1006
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 13: Well, the American people also don't want Iran to have

1007
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 13: a nuclear weapon, we see that in our polling, but

1008
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 13: they're unconvinced that this interim agreement achieves that.

1009
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: So you can see then, you know, even in terms

1010
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 1: of the This is the problem that they set their

1011
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 1: goals so maximalist whenever it came to what they wanted

1012
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 1: to accomplish, and then the deal itself. This is why

1013
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:20,239
Speaker 1: I was saying earlier, you almost can't blame the neoconso.

1014
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: Like you said on conditional surrender, you said you were

1015
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 1: gonna do all this, and then now we're like, okay, well,

1016
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:27,920
Speaker 1: just maybe don't charge a toll just for sixty days.

1017
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 1: Maybe in the future you can, and then let in

1018
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 1: the IE inspectors who were already there and who were

1019
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 1: on the table for being admitted back in June, and

1020
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 1: all just just let's just go right back to when

1021
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: you bomb you in the first place, over a year ago.

1022
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 1: We could have just we could just do do that

1023
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: maybe please, pretty please, you know, just for the price

1024
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 1: of oil. So that's the problem, you know, that they face.

1025
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: But this polling is just so stark for them. Let's

1026
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: put it up here on the screen. We have some

1027
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: of the slides the conflict with Iran. What should the

1028
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 1: US do now?

1029
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 5: End it?

1030
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:55,280
Speaker 10: Now?

1031
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: Only twenty two percent continue the conflict until Iran gives

1032
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 1: up more. Let's go to the next one. What do

1033
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 1: we say here was the conflict with They're on worth

1034
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 1: the cost thirty one percent? Worth the cost sixty nine percent? No,

1035
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 1: not worth the costs. Let's go to the next one.

1036
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 1: Shall We did the conflict with they'reon quote solve more

1037
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 1: problems than it created twenty one percent. I don't really

1038
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,319
Speaker 1: know how so few people came along just with that one,

1039
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 1: but then create more problems and it solve fifty seven percent. Yes,

1040
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:23,840
Speaker 1: and then neither was twenty one Let's go to the

1041
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 1: next one. This is the most important one to me.

1042
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 1: Among Republicans. What should the US now do now? All

1043
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:34,320
Speaker 1: Republicans sixty percent, even self identified MAGA Republicans is fifty

1044
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,360
Speaker 1: six continue the conflict until Iran gives up more forty

1045
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 1: percent and forty four percent with all Republicans versus MAGA

1046
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: Republicans respectively. So MAGA Republicans probably the most propagandized group

1047
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 1: to even potentially say that we should continue this conflict,

1048
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 1: mainlining Fox News into the bloodstream for the last one

1049
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 1: hundred days. Even they are like, yeah, I just need

1050
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,240
Speaker 1: this thing to end. I need it to end now.

1051
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 1: And that's even with I mean, you know, he's selling

1052
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 1: the deal, but not really like is he really selling

1053
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 1: the deal as he was. The war not even close.

1054
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 1: You just have JD out there, you have no real

1055
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,320
Speaker 1: media support for it, and yet the fifty six percent

1056
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 1: of the MAGA Republicans are there. So for the Batyas

1057
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 1: and for you know, for all the neocons and the

1058
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:19,279
Speaker 1: free presses and all of them of the world who

1059
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 1: you know self identified speak on behalf of Maga. Nothing

1060
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 1: can be further from the truth, at least in this

1061
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 1: one particular case. Even all your bullshit, they're not.

1062
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 2: Buying, and the Israelis actually see it even more clearly

1063
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 2: the loss. There was a new poll there that found

1064
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 2: ninety two percent of all Israelis believe that the Islamic

1065
00:52:39,719 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 2: Republic of Ron won the war. Among supporters of Netanyawo,

1066
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 2: it was ninety three percent that believe Aaran won the war. So,

1067
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 2: you know, they're looking at this and they're like, this

1068
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 2: was a disaster. I mean, I would love to have

1069
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: a chart of the emotional highs and lows, oh, I know,

1070
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 2: of the Neocons and the Zionists over this period, because man,

1071
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 2: remember the beginning of the war, they were going on TV.

1072
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,760
Speaker 2: They were so happy Trump's threatening to murder their entire civilization.

1073
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 2: They're so delighted he's calling for their runnie and people

1074
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 2: to rise up. There's all these rumors about We're going

1075
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 2: to arm the Kurds and send them in and.

1076
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:14,919
Speaker 3: Start a civil war.

1077
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 2: They were so happy about all of that, delighted and

1078
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,279
Speaker 2: now that we actually have a possibility at ending this

1079
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 2: utter disaster, devastation, humiliation, etc. Now you could not see

1080
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:29,720
Speaker 2: a group of people if you tried.

1081
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 3: All they want is to go back to the war.

1082
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 2: The promises of unconditional surrender, the delusions of regime change.

1083
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,919
Speaker 2: They want to go immediately back to that fantasy land.

1084
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,240
Speaker 1: Exactly. Let's put this last one here, C three up here,

1085
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:45,919
Speaker 1: just because this is where that Maga republican line where

1086
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 1: we should end it. Now. This also comes though, on

1087
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 1: the other side of can you come back from the war?

1088
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 1: And I support and in the war, I'll support and

1089
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 1: I'll attack all the people who want to continue it.

1090
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 1: But if we're all being honest, for a lot of

1091
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 1: the people who were burned by them, and especially economically,

1092
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 1: can you come back? And as Washington Post writes here,

1093
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 1: for cash strapped farmers, the deal to end Iran fighting

1094
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 1: comes too late. Some of the present's strongest supporters hurting

1095
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 1: as the midterm elections approach, and they interview many of

1096
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 1: them costs of outrun sales all of this year, mostly

1097
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 1: because of Iran, especially with the fuel and the fertilizer

1098
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 1: bills that continue to rise. Diesel quote has not been

1099
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 1: cheaper since mid March. Urea fertilizer in recent days sold

1100
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: for less than it did before the fighting began. However,

1101
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 1: the financial damage has been done, and they specifically point

1102
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:38,279
Speaker 1: to the Iran war as the number one reason why

1103
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:42,240
Speaker 1: they saw those Scott costs skyrocket in the interim from Urea,

1104
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: which we covered some of those charts, fertilizer, many of

1105
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,439
Speaker 1: the other things from the early days in the war,

1106
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: but over and over again they point to soybean, cotton,

1107
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 1: sweet potato, tobacco, corn, sunflowers, which is many of the

1108
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: places where Tyson farms.

1109
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:55,439
Speaker 11: There.

1110
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 1: Rate one of the people that they interviewed here and

1111
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: he says he runs the operation from his own property

1112
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: and he just goes into detail about the damage that

1113
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 1: they have taken. And this was already after the tariffs

1114
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,320
Speaker 1: that had hit in June, so you have too successive

1115
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 1: what I would say were real crises for the American

1116
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 1: farmer in their market with no requisite relief or anything

1117
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 1: from Congress. And I mean, look, I mean, are they

1118
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 1: going to vote Democrat. Probably not, but they're definitely just

1119
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 1: not going to vote whenever it comes midterm election time,

1120
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 1: and even in twenty twenty eight, is it going to

1121
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 1: be that easy, you know, to go on board what

1122
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 1: Trump Donald Trump says is going to be a good

1123
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 1: thing to be Maybe I could be wrong, but I

1124
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 1: think this is going to burn people. I really do.

1125
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:39,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel bad for these guys.

1126
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 2: Not only so you've got the tariffs are disaster, the

1127
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:47,400
Speaker 2: Iran War an utter disaster, COVID and Ukraine had also

1128
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 2: been a disaster, and then on top of that, they've

1129
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 2: been experiencing, many of them a horrific drought, which has

1130
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 2: also cause problems. So you've really got like a perfect

1131
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:01,880
Speaker 2: storm of both mother nature partly caused by the climate crisis,

1132
00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 2: and then Trump's disastrous decisions where they're just taking losses

1133
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 2: a year after year after year. One of the guys

1134
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 2: they interviewed is like, I long ago told my kids,

1135
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 2: don't do this, go do something else in the world.

1136
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 2: So so yeah, I mean there it gets to the

1137
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 2: point of let's say it all goes smoothly over the

1138
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 2: sixty days. Seems unlikely, but let's say it all goes

1139
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 2: corner and plan. At the end of sixty days, we

1140
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 2: announced some deal arounds getting their sanctions of relief where

1141
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 2: you know, straight hoh hormons is open, oil is flowing,

1142
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 2: like things in the economy go relatively back to normal.

1143
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of damage that's been done over

1144
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 2: this time period, and as we've learned before, it takes

1145
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: a while before things go back to normal. And if

1146
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 2: you're someone who's living you know, hands mouth, which is

1147
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 2: close to a majority of Americans, you know you're being

1148
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:48,839
Speaker 2: set back in this period in a way this can

1149
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 2: be very difficult to recover and that you're not going

1150
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 2: to forget. So I think the you know, both the

1151
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:58,240
Speaker 2: economic and political fallout of this is incredibly incredibly damaging.

1152
00:56:58,360 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 1: National price of gas today three ninety two gallon, glad

1153
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 1: to see it. You know, under four dollars a gallon.

1154
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 1: Diesel still look about five bucks a gallon. And as

1155
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,239
Speaker 1: you said, you know, the other wild card to all

1156
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 1: of this is China, which remember the only reason that

1157
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:13,720
Speaker 1: we didn't hit a genuine crisis in the oil market

1158
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 1: was because of Chinese imports. But those same analysts that

1159
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: we were looking at who talked about that fifty percent

1160
00:57:19,640 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 1: cut in overall imports from China is saying, look, at

1161
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 1: a certain point, they are going to have to start

1162
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 1: importing at some point. Again, they can't just continue to

1163
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: sit there and eat up all of their own reserves.

1164
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 1: So when they restart at least some of their imports,

1165
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: price pressure will stay there. They're waiting for the price

1166
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 1: to come down to be able to continue, but they

1167
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 1: will have to do it, you know, sometime in the

1168
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 1: next month or two. And so no not even nation

1169
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: in the world, especially one of some one point four

1170
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 1: billion people can just sit around and not have any

1171
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 1: oil import or a very little oil import for months

1172
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 1: on end. So when it restarts, that could keep the price,

1173
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 1: you know, continuing high, especially with all the slack currently

1174
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: cut out of the system. Not even to mention the

1175
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:00,959
Speaker 1: strategic petroleum reserve. If we have a another crisis after

1176
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 1: this one, it's we're dead.

1177
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's no guarantees in the negotiation process. Let's

1178
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 2: say we get sixty days down the road, thing falls apart.

1179
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 2: We've got sixty more days of oil traffic having been

1180
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 2: interrupted and not back to ordinary times, and in the

1181
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 2: spr has been dramatically, you know, drawn down, So you're

1182
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 2: in a much more precarious position starting out at that.

1183
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: Well, we you know, we always make this fallacy. We

1184
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 1: were repointing to the current conflicts. But the lesson of

1185
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 1: history is that you don't know. I mean right now,

1186
00:58:27,640 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 1: I mean we're going to cover this tomorrow with John Meerscheimer. Russia.

1187
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:33,440
Speaker 1: What's happening in Russian Ukraine is out of control. It's

1188
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:36,640
Speaker 1: absolutely out of control. They are blowing the shit out

1189
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 1: of all of these Russian oil refineries. Russia's oil production

1190
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: is actually dropping, They're hitting all these Look, I get it.

1191
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 1: You know, Ukraine is a right to self defense, but

1192
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 1: this is still a nuclear arm nation and all of that,

1193
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 1: and so will they take drastic measure that sounds like

1194
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 1: a recipe for disaster in the oil market, right or

1195
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 1: you never know? India, Pakistan, I mean North Korea, like

1196
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 1: the Straits of Malacca, Taiwan, anything could happen all over.

1197
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 1: That's why you have a strategic reserve. But at the

1198
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 1: lowest level here from nineteen eighty three, that's why the pricarity,

1199
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 1: it's like them munitions. We knew it would be a problem.

1200
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:10,240
Speaker 1: You didn't know we were going to bomb Iran, but

1201
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: you could foresee it a mile away. And oh, that's

1202
00:59:13,080 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 1: exactly what happened. Now that we've come out of this war,

1203
00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 1: we have very, very low stockpile, so you can see it.

1204
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 1: The script is written here for a petroleum reserve. We

1205
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: used it in the current crisis. We don't have. You know,

1206
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 1: nobody's going to want to refill it because it'll cost

1207
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:27,400
Speaker 1: hundreds of billions or whatever. Trump doesn't want to have

1208
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 1: to eat that cost. Neither does. Congress sets the stage

1209
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 1: for a potential problem in the future.