WEBVTT - The Truth with Lisa Boothe: The Most Unpredictable Election Cycle in Recent History 0:00:00.360 --> 0:00:05.560 Today's episode, we'll focus on one thing, where does this 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:10.200 presidential election stand today. Obviously we can't predict what will 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:13.480 happen in November, but the whole point of polling is 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:15.640 to get a snapshot, to get an idea of where 0:00:15.680 --> 0:00:18.520 things stand today and where this race might be heading. 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:21.840 It's been a wild election cycle, with the attempted assassination 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.840 of former President Donald Trump, with Joe Biden dropping out 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.840 via x A tweet, Kamala Harris, a whole new Democrat 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:34.879 candidate being anointed, being installed by her parties, billionaires and elites, 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:37.040 and then picking Tim Walls, a guy who wants to 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:40.400 put tampons in the boys' bathroom, as her vice presidential pick. 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:44.680 So it's been a chaotic, tumultuous cycle, which potentially could 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:47.839 make pulling a little bit harder to figure out. So 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.080 we'll talk to someone who has been consistent in his 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.960 polling efforts, who's been correct much more than many of 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:57.280 the others, and who's always honest with us when we 0:00:57.320 --> 0:00:59.680 have him on the show. It's Robert Kahley with the 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:02.520 tr We're going to get his take on if the 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:06.760 debate potentially changed the dynamics of the election. Many are 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:08.919 saying that it wasn't the best night for Donald Trump, 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:11.880 So how does that impact him moving forward? We'll get 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.000 his take on the media, what role the media is 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.520 playing and determining the outcome of this election. Also, a 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:20.280 lot is being discussed about this massive gender gap. 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:21.480 What do you needed about that. 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.800 We'll also get into the key battleground states and where 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:28.760 the House and Senate elections stand as well. Stay tuned 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:37.480 for Robert Kahley with the Trafalgar Group. Robert, it's so 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.200 great to have you on the show. This has been 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:45.160 an extremely wild election cycle, so looking forward to hearing 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:47.240 your insight and where things stand now. 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.279 So always appreciate you coming on the show. 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:55.160 Absolutely, it's a pleasure to be here, and especially with 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.840 people that I think so much of and it's you know, 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:01.960 kind of would to have somebody like you to talk with. 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:05.520 It kind of knows a lot about the subject, so 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:07.400 it's always a good discussion. 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:09.560 Well that means a lot. I really appreciate that. 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.840 You know, as a poster, you're trying to kind of 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.920 identify trends and you're obviously you know, looking at a 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:19.200 snapshot in time of where things currently stand. How difficult 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.400 has it been this election cycle just with you know, 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.040 we've had an assassination attempt and then a whole new 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:26.040 Democrat ticket. 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:27.720 I mean, it's just been so tumultuous. 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:32.639 How challenging does that make your job and trying to assess, 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:34.359 you know, where things stand. 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:39.840 Well, yeah, the polling itself hasn't been so difficult. It's 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:45.160 the rapid changes. For example, you mentioned the change and 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:50.799 the assassination. In both cases, before the assassination, the tent 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:55.880 and and the weekend when that all came clear Kamala 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.480 Harris was going to come, we were in the field 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.399 almost finished with an entire poles we had to scrap 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:07.000 and so it was very frustrating because these things aren't 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:10.080 cheap to do, and when you have scrapped that many polls, 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.480 it's just like but they're not going to make any sense. 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:17.480 And so it was one of those things was we 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:20.080 were trying to establish, like with Trump, a baseline up 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.840 where it was going into the convention. Well that was 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.280 out the window because he had an assassination e tipt 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:29.400 on a Saturday at an avention that started on Monday, 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:34.000 So there's no window left to do any kind of 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:37.520 a survey and everything we'd done up. There was just trash. 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.000 So yeah, in that sense, it's very difficult when they're 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:46.480 massive changes like this, but otherwise the questions are kind 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:51.800 of the same, and at least with Kambala, it lets 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:56.119 us dig in a little bit deeper. Because the one 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:59.560 thing we noticed very early with Biden, and I thought 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:03.640 this was a problem with the Republicans, was that the 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:08.080 main objection to Biden was his age, and there was 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:12.240 a great overconfidence among Republicans. I talked about it on 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:15.160 the podcast that I do with Matt Towery we do 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:20.560 every week called Polling Plus, and I talked about this, 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:23.560 and I think one of the episodes of called Republican Overconfidence. 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.480 I gave a delegation speech at the convention about Republican 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:30.720 overconfidence and this was, you know, we're still running itast Biden, 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:36.760 and it was just this idea of the Republicans are 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:42.160 not focused on making the case for Republican issues because 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:46.120 they think it seems so obvious that Biden's going to lose. 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:51.279 And that is what explained the significant difference between the 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:56.440 Republican between Trump and Biden and down the ticket races, 0:04:56.480 --> 0:04:59.560 because nobody was making the case for the Republican issues 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:03.680 because it isn't necessary, And now we see how necessary 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:07.279 it was, because if they just switched candidates and the 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.560 case had been made against the policies, it wouldn't have 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:13.080 made that much difference. But because they didn't do that, 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:17.839 they're scrambling. And I think that that is a that 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:23.400 is a problem, and it's not the campaign. I think 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:25.880 that I think the Trump campaign is doing a very 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:31.560 good job. But I cannot say enough nasty things if 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:36.120 I could, specifically about the outside groups that are soaking 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.400 these billionaires draw and not delivering a real product, if 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:41.120 a product at all. 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:43.320 Well, and you know, I've heard the same concerns as 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:46.200 you did before Biden dropped out. You know, it was 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.200 going on Fox saying, hey, look, we need to make 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:52.919 a bigger case against Democrat Party policies more broadly, because 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.599 if he drops out, that solves the age question and 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:58.480 then we're screwed, you know. And so I sure had 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.840 the exact same concern as you did before he dropped out. 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.400 And also just you know, TV was still drumming up 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:07.360 Biden's age, Biden's age, and it's like, okay, once that's gone, 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:08.720 you know, what do we have? 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:10.680 Right? So like, that's. 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:14.720 Exactly right. And this is one of the reasons that 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:18.920 I said on Maria Barromo and quite a few other shows, 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:23.039 I was more wored about Kamala than Biden. I've always 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:28.120 been more about Kamala than Biden because I knew that. 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.920 First of all. Then I've always been concerned because I 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:35.920 knew they couldn't skip her. Going back three years ago, 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:39.279 I said that when you're an identity politics party, you 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:43.120 cannot abandon this woman when it's her turn, or you 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.360 will lose her demographic. You can't do it. You can't 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:50.920 play identity politics when it's convenient. But then the night 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:57.480 of Biden's debate debacle, she came, Kamala came on too, 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:03.279 MSNBC and CNN, and she was so articulate and she 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:07.320 was so smooth, and I remember even John King was like, 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:11.000 where have you been keeping her the last three years? Wow? 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:14.480 What an effective message? And I was like, Oh, this 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.360 is in, this is in, this is gonna happen. They 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.120 are set in the stage, so I knew it was 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:22.720 gonna be her. I knew there was going to be 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:26.480 a media love fest and the Kamala that was kind 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:30.720 of wandering around I mean sometimes staff does matter, and 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:32.800 she has some of the best in the business on 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:35.760 the Democrat side advising her. Now, not the people who 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:38.120 are advising her. When she was vice president who fronts 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.400 we weren't doing her a very good job because if 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.360 you look at her as a senator, and if you 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.360 look at her and Attorney general, she was much smarter 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:47.880 than she seemed as vice president. So I was worried 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:49.360 that the real commrao might come back. 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:55.000 Well, you know, you were to have those concerns about her. 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:59.560 You know what's interesting, Robert is Okay, So we were 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:01.680 told that there would be a honeymoon period. It ended 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:05.480 up lasting longer than you know, I think anticipated, And 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.080 then it seemed up until the debate that maybe that 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:09.720 sort of you know, sugar high if you want to 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:13.520 call it, or the honeymoon period was maybe finally you know, 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.320 on the downgrade that was you know, turning down, that 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.280 was diminishing. But then you know, here she had this 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.520 debate where you know, she performed probably better than expected. 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:25.280 You know, she rehearsed her lines. Who knew who knows 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:27.520 if she knew what any of it meant, but you know, 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:30.160 she rehearsed her line, she came prepared all you had 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:32.680 something like I think more than sixty seven million people 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.400 who watched. It was one of the most watched debates 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:39.119 in quite some time, I think something like sixteen years. 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:43.280 I mean, does that sustain her sugar high? I mean, 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.960 does that put her back on in an upward trajectory? 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:48.160 I mean, you know, I guess, how do you think 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:52.839 the debate changes things or does it change things? 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:56.880 Well, let me give you an example of Matt Tyr 0:08:56.960 --> 0:09:01.679 and I together did an instant poll. And so what 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:08.120 we did in our poll was we looked at all 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:12.680 the battlegroum states. We basically contacted people in just those 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:17.560 states and it was over twenty three hundred people and 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.840 the course of like the last thirty minutes of the 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:23.959 debate and thirty minutes after, so it was I mean 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:27.840 a lot, a lot of contact, and we had that. 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.120 It started out we asked where you were before the 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:34.079 debate began forty seven Trump forty seven, hairs two for 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:38.000 others for undecided. Then we asked who won the debate, 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:42.320 and that was Harris fifty five, Trump forty three. It 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:45.560 was a tie to who are you voting for now? 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:50.320 And on this one. We try to minimize the undecided 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.959 about saying it the election were held tomorrow and you 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:57.240 had to decide who would you vote for. In that case, 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:01.200 it was forty eight Trump, forty eight Harris, one someone 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:07.400 else and three undecided. So what we showed is lots 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:10.640 of people who thought Trump lost, who was still for Trump, 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:13.360 didn't think he won the debate. There's still for him. 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:18.360 And so as you know, and that and that's us. 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:20.800 And people say, well that in that discount, that's because 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:25.440 you know, republicanly whatever, non nonsense. It doesn't matter to 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.600 mention that. You know that we are the number one 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:33.200 polling firm of the last two presidential cycles, unquestionable, we 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:38.640 have the lowest arabate of anybody, and these in battlement 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:42.280 of states. But put that aside. The NN's one focus 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:47.120 group bought the common one. But it didn't move anything. 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:50.640 You saw the New York Times article about the people 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:54.520 and said the pundit says she won, but it did 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.679 not move undecided. I mean, and and and the wroters 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:01.200 sound the same thing. I mean. So there's this thought 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:06.800 that she might have performed better, But how did she 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:13.680 come across, you know, winning and throwing the most barbs 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:17.280 doesn't necessarily make you popular. I mean, one can of 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.400 argue al Gore won the debates of the Bush, but 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:24.439 she came out liking Bush better. So there's a likability 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:28.880 argument that could be said. And I think that if 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.520 you just look that, you're going to see a lot 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.840 of people and I think you're going to find this, 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:39.280 especially in the blue collar Midwest, who did not come 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:43.880 across with thinking they liked her better after that debate, 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:47.760 because the one thing Trump did is he tied her 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.040 to bite and he you know, he says she's Bien. 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.120 And the one moment I thought she seemed the most 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.800 bristle is when she was like, well, I'm not Biden, 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.760 and then she realized what she had done. Well I'm 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.240 not Trump either. I mean, like if you look at 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:05.120 kind of the thought going through her mind, like what 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:07.439 now that that could be George argh. She said I'm 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:09.480 not Trump either, like I'm different, you know, I'm a 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:14.800 new generator. But it was like she was defensive on that. 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.679 And people know, the moderators will pointing out when they 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:21.360 thought Trump didn't say something right, even though I'm not 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:23.880 even sure that the things they pointed out that Trump 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.240 said that they said, we're wrong, We're actually even wrong. 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.600 I mean, everybody's seen the video on the internet of 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:33.120 the the police officer and the body cam arresting the 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.640 woman who people say was eating on the cat. I mean, 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.240 that isn't made up. That's real. That body cam is 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:43.760 out there, but I can see it. So now I've 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.120 seen even by a dog. But I mean the fact is, 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:48.760 some of these there's a lot of crazy stuff going 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:53.400 on in this town. And there's also I mean a 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:57.640 lot of voodoo stuff corner and a lot of that 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:03.440 community now too. So you know fbio statistics, I mean, 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.960 there's a lot of questions about whether they're cooking the books. 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.079 I mean, so there's a lot of things they correct 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.680 to Trump on that may not even be right. So 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.080 it did have the field that the moderators were own 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:20.040 her side in such a way that you didn't come across. 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:24.360 I mean, when Trump compliments Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.680 I gotta tell you something like that was a fair debate. 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.679 They didn't get in there. And frankly, I think if 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.120 Trump could get a fair debate, he should do another one. 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.440 That's the challenge is, you know, trying to get a 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.319 fair debate, and you know, just seeing sort of even 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.400 the media research centers, the studies about how the media 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:47.640 is covered this truncated election cycle, you know, where basically 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.360 she's getting almost one hundred percent positive coverage and you 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:53.640 know he's getting almost one hundred percent, you know, negative coverage. 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:54.679 We've got more with Robert. 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.160 But first, as we approached the one year mark of 0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:00.920 the horrific events of October seventh in Israel, the International 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.800 Fellowship of Christians and Jews invites you to join them 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.760 in Flags of Fellowship, an opportunity for Christians to remember 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.800 the victims, honor the heroes, pray for those still held hostage, 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.240 and highlight the unwavering support of Christians for Israel and 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:19.160 the Jewish people. On October six, thousands of Christians will 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.760 be praying for those impacted by the war and planning 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.840 flags across America to honor the victims of October seventh. 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.160 Join us and letting the world know that Christians stand 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.800 with Israel. Your generous donation today will not only provide 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:35.960 a flag symbolizing or support in churchyards across America, but 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.760 will also support the Fellowship's ongoing emergency efforts in the 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:43.320 Holy Land. We cannot stay silent, We cannot stay on 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:47.680 the sidelines as anti Semitism spreads like wildfire. Israel needs 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.840 you now visit SUPPORTIFCJ dot org to stand in solidarity 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:52.680 with the Jewish people. 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:58.840 That's one word. Support IFCJ dot org. Support IFCJ dot org. 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:06.560 If you would assess where things stand today, you know, 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:10.440 where does this election stand? Honestly nationally because you know 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.680 obviously that doesn't really matter as much, but in the 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.480 battleground states that are ultimately going to decide the electoral 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:18.240 College outcome. 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:20.720 You know where do you think this election stands? 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.600 Well, I'll put it to you this way. We kind 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.640 of went through this on our latest podcast and people 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.000 should check it out polling plus type into polling with 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.800 the first podcast it comes up. But we we talked 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:34.479 about we're going to do each one of the battleground 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:38.600 states and uh I did the most recent bowl in Pennsylvania. 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:42.040 I had Trump up by two and I will tell you, 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:46.360 in my experience with the Democrat organization on the ground there, 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:52.560 get out the vote and whatever that entails. Leave that 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.600 out there. I don't think two points is enough to 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.240 win Pennsylvania, think you better be leading it by more 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.840 than two points. So I'd say Pennsylvania is a loss 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:07.080 right now. Michigan, I think I had it that even 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:12.160 Matt Twery's last poe had Trump up by one. That 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:16.720 might be enough, but I think Michigan is only dependent 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:21.280 on what happens with the Middle East and the guys. 0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:25.760 The thing ate whether the community of Arabs or Muslims, 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:30.280 and they're actually separate community, not separate communities, but they're different. 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:35.000 Not every one of the Arabs is a Muslim, but 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:38.760 there's one group and they feel very strongly about that, 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.280 and depend upon how they feel about Kambala and where 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:46.080 they participate. Probably the Trump two wins Michigan Wisconsin. My 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.560 mother recent one had Trump up by zero point eight. 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.440 Which is probably the same problem as Pennsylvania, where you've 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:55.000 got to get above that margin of error. 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:56.640 If you're going to win a state. 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.600 Like that, I would think you've got to win, you know, 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:07.080 a little bit better than that. Arizona. Arizona is probably 0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:11.080 one that Trump can win. Uh. The most recent poll 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.800 that Matt did there had I mean, Carry Lake was 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:16.600 only behind by four uh and Trump was up, So 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:19.120 I think I think Arizona is one that could be won. 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.879 Nevada I've learned my lesson. I have been had my 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.600 butt keep three times trying to say Nevada is going 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:30.159 to vote Republican because what they do the Saturday for 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.719 that election, the money before the election, with all the 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:37.119 early voting, and the buses and the vans and and 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:38.879 and frankly just good hard work. 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.720 Well it's the Harry Reid turnout machine, right. 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:46.399 It is fantastic. I mean, I am envious of what 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.680 the Democrats do, so I'm not going to make a call. 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.960 I don't care how good it looks Republicans Georgia. I 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.000 think George is possible. They've got a lot of things 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.560 to tighten things up and George, they haven't addressed be 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:03.600 seen biggest problem in Georgia, which is what had people 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:07.880 watching video of ballot boxes being stuffed and being told 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:10.280 it was fair. What they don't understand was, here's the 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:15.199 problem to the law. If somebody cast fifty ballots and 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.800 forty nine are illegal, they're guilty of forty nine counts 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:23.000 of voter fraud. However, all fifty ballots are to be counted. 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.800 That is a flaw in the law. And that is 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:29.920 why you saw the video you did, and yet those 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:33.120 weren't illegal balance and they have not fixed that. Now 0:18:33.200 --> 0:18:36.919 bringing those ballot boxes inside and their all film, if 0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:40.760 people know their own film, I think will limit it. 0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:44.159 But that's a real problem and that really should be 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:45.720 addressed by the law. They ought to be able to 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.480 go in there when they see that and try to 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:52.919 isolate those those ballots, whether it's fingerprints or whatever. But 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:54.560 if you notice some of those videos, they are wearing 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.600 rubber gloves. I mean, they were worried they were going 0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:00.680 to do that. So that's a real problem, and I'm 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:04.040 not sure how they handle that, but they have to 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.720 do something because it just it's an issue. But I 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:09.560 still think Georgia can be one. And I've never been 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:15.359 a believer that North Carolina is going to go Democrat. 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:20.280 I mean North Carolina has traditionally had I mean they've 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:26.640 Republican everything, even twenty twenty two they said legislative high 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.960 water marsh for both the House and the Senate in 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:34.199 North Carolina got super majorities in twenty twenty two, and 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:38.440 they will every Senate seat. Every state went office except governor, 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.199 and in the past the past two gumatrolection. They just 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:45.159 had bad candidates, and so even if the candidate for 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:48.639 governor doesn't win, that doesn't mean the state just defaults 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:51.959 to D. So I think North Calaina is going to 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:57.600 go for Trump, and at that point there's got to 0:19:57.640 --> 0:20:00.840 be one. And so it really right now, if I 0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:03.800 had to save the election today, i'd say it to hers. 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:05.360 Yeah, because what you just laid out does not get 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:06.959 them to two seventy's. 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:13.879 Yeah, but what what I mean? And we hear stuff 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:18.359 all the time about the level of organization. The Democrats 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:22.560 are very good at this, and they don't just talk it, 0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.919 and they don't just put crappy, you know, computer programs 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:29.840 on their phones. They have people on the ground, like 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:34.080 a thousand paid operatives in Georgia for the Republican versus 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:37.480 Democrat runoffs for Senate when they were both up. I mean, 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:41.159 like that's incredible. In the Atlanta airport, like kids wearing 0:20:41.200 --> 0:20:45.440 colored shirts gathering up at the airport, all coming in. 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:50.280 I mean, one of a map ran to someone organizing 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:53.639 on Christmas Eve in a hotel conference room when they 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:56.160 were going to have dinner at a hotel. I mean, 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:58.240 this is the this is the kind of dedication they have, 0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:02.800 and so I don't see anything on the Republican side 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:06.360 to equal that level of grassroots. And part of it 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:10.560 is the Republican Party's real problem is a bunch of 0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:13.679 donor money that goes to people who squandered. There's not 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:18.440 a profit big profit margin to make about organizing grassroots. 0:21:18.760 --> 0:21:21.439 No vendor gets rich doing it. But it's the single 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:24.800 most important thing that can be done. And that's that's 0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:29.399 that's literally what people who know the system worry about 0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:33.560 is there's so much profitteering on the Republican side and 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:34.760 not of attention to winning. 0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:44.480 No, that's that's uh, obviously a huge concern. You know, 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.920 you look at some of the fundamentals of this race 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:48.800 in the sense of, you know, the economy is the 0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:50.960 number one issue, that's the issue that you know he 0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:54.560 does the best on, you know, even uh, even after 0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:57.879 the election. You know, CNN's own poll found that, you know, 0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:01.159 we're the confidence and have him on the issue of 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:05.719 economy increased after the debate. And then you look at 0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:08.280 the other issue of you know, the New York Times 0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:10.840 finding that you know, sixty one percent of Americans want 0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:14.000 major change from President Biden. You know, the majority obviously 0:22:14.040 --> 0:22:19.280 see him as the change. Is that enough to you know, 0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:22.000 try to push him closer to two seventy as we 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:23.960 kind of you know, I know you said the race 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:25.440 today is probably hers. 0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:28.920 Or what does he need to do? Do you think? 0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:33.399 Well? I think he needs to do. The campaign is 0:22:33.440 --> 0:22:36.840 the one thing that I think has been operated very well. 0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:41.679 I mean, whether it's their ads, of their strategy, or 0:22:41.720 --> 0:22:43.960 the towns that they can do their rallies. I mean, 0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:49.640 they're doing their job extremely well, and I think they 0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:52.320 just need to keep on doing what they're doing. The 0:22:52.320 --> 0:22:57.720 other thing to remember is the social desirability bias, the 0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:00.120 thing that we were very good at predicting in twenty 0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:03.720 sixteen of what the difference between what people said and 0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:07.400 who they're really voting for. You know, some people call 0:23:07.480 --> 0:23:09.560 that the Bradley effect, and that goes back to a 0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:15.600 race apparently with governor candidate named Duke Magian and a 0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:18.399 candidate named Bradley. He was the mayor of Los Angeles, 0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:21.159 and all the Poles said Bradley would win because people 0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:24.800 wanted to say they were voting for the African American 0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:28.199 candidate because it made them look more open minded, but 0:23:28.240 --> 0:23:31.480 they actually voted for Dick Magian. So when you consider 0:23:31.520 --> 0:23:33.439 their people who don't want to say they're voting for 0:23:33.480 --> 0:23:37.360 Trump alone, and then the fact that they're people who 0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:40.080 are saying their voting for Kamala who don't intend to, 0:23:40.680 --> 0:23:47.040 there could be a double social desirability bias going on. 0:23:47.480 --> 0:23:51.720 So I will hold out the possibility that Trump might 0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:54.800 have an advantage in these states that is not seen 0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:58.120