Speaker 1: Today's episode, we'll focus on one thing, where does this
Speaker 1: presidential election stand today. Obviously we can't predict what will
Speaker 1: happen in November, but the whole point of polling is
Speaker 1: to get a snapshot, to get an idea of where
Speaker 1: things stand today and where this race might be heading.
Speaker 1: It's been a wild election cycle, with the attempted assassination
Speaker 1: of former President Donald Trump, with Joe Biden dropping out
Speaker 1: via x A tweet, Kamala Harris, a whole new Democrat
Speaker 1: candidate being anointed, being installed by her parties, billionaires and elites,
Speaker 1: and then picking Tim Walls, a guy who wants to
Speaker 1: put tampons in the boys' bathroom, as her vice presidential pick.
Speaker 1: So it's been a chaotic, tumultuous cycle, which potentially could
Speaker 1: make pulling a little bit harder to figure out. So
Speaker 1: we'll talk to someone who has been consistent in his
Speaker 1: polling efforts, who's been correct much more than many of
Speaker 1: the others, and who's always honest with us when we
Speaker 1: have him on the show. It's Robert Kahley with the
Speaker 1: tr We're going to get his take on if the
Speaker 1: debate potentially changed the dynamics of the election. Many are
Speaker 1: saying that it wasn't the best night for Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: So how does that impact him moving forward? We'll get
Speaker 1: his take on the media, what role the media is
Speaker 1: playing and determining the outcome of this election. Also, a
Speaker 1: lot is being discussed about this massive gender gap.
Speaker 2: What do you needed about that.
Speaker 1: We'll also get into the key battleground states and where
Speaker 1: the House and Senate elections stand as well. Stay tuned
Speaker 1: for Robert Kahley with the Trafalgar Group. Robert, it's so
Speaker 1: great to have you on the show. This has been
Speaker 1: an extremely wild election cycle, so looking forward to hearing
Speaker 1: your insight and where things stand now.
Speaker 2: So always appreciate you coming on the show.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, it's a pleasure to be here, and especially with
Speaker 3: people that I think so much of and it's you know,
Speaker 3: kind of would to have somebody like you to talk with.
Speaker 3: It kind of knows a lot about the subject, so
Speaker 3: it's always a good discussion.
Speaker 2: Well that means a lot. I really appreciate that.
Speaker 1: You know, as a poster, you're trying to kind of
Speaker 1: identify trends and you're obviously you know, looking at a
Speaker 1: snapshot in time of where things currently stand. How difficult
Speaker 1: has it been this election cycle just with you know,
Speaker 1: we've had an assassination attempt and then a whole new
Speaker 1: Democrat ticket.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just been so tumultuous.
Speaker 1: How challenging does that make your job and trying to assess,
Speaker 1: you know, where things stand.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, the polling itself hasn't been so difficult. It's
Speaker 3: the rapid changes. For example, you mentioned the change and
Speaker 3: the assassination. In both cases, before the assassination, the tent
Speaker 3: and and the weekend when that all came clear Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris was going to come, we were in the field
Speaker 3: almost finished with an entire poles we had to scrap
Speaker 3: and so it was very frustrating because these things aren't
Speaker 3: cheap to do, and when you have scrapped that many polls,
Speaker 3: it's just like but they're not going to make any sense.
Speaker 3: And so it was one of those things was we
Speaker 3: were trying to establish, like with Trump, a baseline up
Speaker 3: where it was going into the convention. Well that was
Speaker 3: out the window because he had an assassination e tipt
Speaker 3: on a Saturday at an avention that started on Monday,
Speaker 3: So there's no window left to do any kind of
Speaker 3: a survey and everything we'd done up. There was just trash.
Speaker 3: So yeah, in that sense, it's very difficult when they're
Speaker 3: massive changes like this, but otherwise the questions are kind
Speaker 3: of the same, and at least with Kambala, it lets
Speaker 3: us dig in a little bit deeper. Because the one
Speaker 3: thing we noticed very early with Biden, and I thought
Speaker 3: this was a problem with the Republicans, was that the
Speaker 3: main objection to Biden was his age, and there was
Speaker 3: a great overconfidence among Republicans. I talked about it on
Speaker 3: the podcast that I do with Matt Towery we do
Speaker 3: every week called Polling Plus, and I talked about this,
Speaker 3: and I think one of the episodes of called Republican Overconfidence.
Speaker 3: I gave a delegation speech at the convention about Republican
Speaker 3: overconfidence and this was, you know, we're still running itast Biden,
Speaker 3: and it was just this idea of the Republicans are
Speaker 3: not focused on making the case for Republican issues because
Speaker 3: they think it seems so obvious that Biden's going to lose.
Speaker 3: And that is what explained the significant difference between the
Speaker 3: Republican between Trump and Biden and down the ticket races,
Speaker 3: because nobody was making the case for the Republican issues
Speaker 3: because it isn't necessary, And now we see how necessary
Speaker 3: it was, because if they just switched candidates and the
Speaker 3: case had been made against the policies, it wouldn't have
Speaker 3: made that much difference. But because they didn't do that,
Speaker 3: they're scrambling. And I think that that is a that
Speaker 3: is a problem, and it's not the campaign. I think
Speaker 3: that I think the Trump campaign is doing a very
Speaker 3: good job. But I cannot say enough nasty things if
Speaker 3: I could, specifically about the outside groups that are soaking
Speaker 3: these billionaires draw and not delivering a real product, if
Speaker 3: a product at all.
Speaker 1: Well, and you know, I've heard the same concerns as
Speaker 1: you did before Biden dropped out. You know, it was
Speaker 1: going on Fox saying, hey, look, we need to make
Speaker 1: a bigger case against Democrat Party policies more broadly, because
Speaker 1: if he drops out, that solves the age question and
Speaker 1: then we're screwed, you know. And so I sure had
Speaker 1: the exact same concern as you did before he dropped out.
Speaker 1: And also just you know, TV was still drumming up
Speaker 1: Biden's age, Biden's age, and it's like, okay, once that's gone,
Speaker 1: you know, what do we have?
Speaker 2: Right? So like, that's.
Speaker 3: Exactly right. And this is one of the reasons that
Speaker 3: I said on Maria Barromo and quite a few other shows,
Speaker 3: I was more wored about Kamala than Biden. I've always
Speaker 3: been more about Kamala than Biden because I knew that.
Speaker 3: First of all. Then I've always been concerned because I
Speaker 3: knew they couldn't skip her. Going back three years ago,
Speaker 3: I said that when you're an identity politics party, you
Speaker 3: cannot abandon this woman when it's her turn, or you
Speaker 3: will lose her demographic. You can't do it. You can't
Speaker 3: play identity politics when it's convenient. But then the night
Speaker 3: of Biden's debate debacle, she came, Kamala came on too,
Speaker 3: MSNBC and CNN, and she was so articulate and she
Speaker 3: was so smooth, and I remember even John King was like,
Speaker 3: where have you been keeping her the last three years? Wow?
Speaker 3: What an effective message? And I was like, Oh, this
Speaker 3: is in, this is in, this is gonna happen. They
Speaker 3: are set in the stage, so I knew it was
Speaker 3: gonna be her. I knew there was going to be
Speaker 3: a media love fest and the Kamala that was kind
Speaker 3: of wandering around I mean sometimes staff does matter, and
Speaker 3: she has some of the best in the business on
Speaker 3: the Democrat side advising her. Now, not the people who
Speaker 3: are advising her. When she was vice president who fronts
Speaker 3: we weren't doing her a very good job because if
Speaker 3: you look at her as a senator, and if you
Speaker 3: look at her and Attorney general, she was much smarter
Speaker 3: than she seemed as vice president. So I was worried
Speaker 3: that the real commrao might come back.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, you were to have those concerns about her.
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting, Robert is Okay, So we were
Speaker 1: told that there would be a honeymoon period. It ended
Speaker 1: up lasting longer than you know, I think anticipated, And
Speaker 1: then it seemed up until the debate that maybe that
Speaker 1: sort of you know, sugar high if you want to
Speaker 1: call it, or the honeymoon period was maybe finally you know,
Speaker 1: on the downgrade that was you know, turning down, that
Speaker 1: was diminishing. But then you know, here she had this
Speaker 1: debate where you know, she performed probably better than expected.
Speaker 1: You know, she rehearsed her lines. Who knew who knows
Speaker 1: if she knew what any of it meant, but you know,
Speaker 1: she rehearsed her line, she came prepared all you had
Speaker 1: something like I think more than sixty seven million people
Speaker 1: who watched. It was one of the most watched debates
Speaker 1: in quite some time, I think something like sixteen years.
Speaker 1: I mean, does that sustain her sugar high? I mean,
Speaker 1: does that put her back on in an upward trajectory?
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I guess, how do you think
Speaker 1: the debate changes things or does it change things?
Speaker 3: Well, let me give you an example of Matt Tyr
Speaker 3: and I together did an instant poll. And so what
Speaker 3: we did in our poll was we looked at all
Speaker 3: the battlegroum states. We basically contacted people in just those
Speaker 3: states and it was over twenty three hundred people and
Speaker 3: the course of like the last thirty minutes of the
Speaker 3: debate and thirty minutes after, so it was I mean
Speaker 3: a lot, a lot of contact, and we had that.
Speaker 3: It started out we asked where you were before the
Speaker 3: debate began forty seven Trump forty seven, hairs two for
Speaker 3: others for undecided. Then we asked who won the debate,
Speaker 3: and that was Harris fifty five, Trump forty three. It
Speaker 3: was a tie to who are you voting for now?
Speaker 3: And on this one. We try to minimize the undecided
Speaker 3: about saying it the election were held tomorrow and you
Speaker 3: had to decide who would you vote for. In that case,
Speaker 3: it was forty eight Trump, forty eight Harris, one someone
Speaker 3: else and three undecided. So what we showed is lots
Speaker 3: of people who thought Trump lost, who was still for Trump,
Speaker 3: didn't think he won the debate. There's still for him.
Speaker 3: And so as you know, and that and that's us.
Speaker 3: And people say, well that in that discount, that's because
Speaker 3: you know, republicanly whatever, non nonsense. It doesn't matter to
Speaker 3: mention that. You know that we are the number one
Speaker 3: polling firm of the last two presidential cycles, unquestionable, we
Speaker 3: have the lowest arabate of anybody, and these in battlement
Speaker 3: of states. But put that aside. The NN's one focus
Speaker 3: group bought the common one. But it didn't move anything.
Speaker 3: You saw the New York Times article about the people
Speaker 3: and said the pundit says she won, but it did
Speaker 3: not move undecided. I mean, and and and the wroters
Speaker 3: sound the same thing. I mean. So there's this thought
Speaker 3: that she might have performed better, But how did she
Speaker 3: come across, you know, winning and throwing the most barbs
Speaker 3: doesn't necessarily make you popular. I mean, one can of
Speaker 3: argue al Gore won the debates of the Bush, but
Speaker 3: she came out liking Bush better. So there's a likability
Speaker 3: argument that could be said. And I think that if
Speaker 3: you just look that, you're going to see a lot
Speaker 3: of people and I think you're going to find this,
Speaker 3: especially in the blue collar Midwest, who did not come
Speaker 3: across with thinking they liked her better after that debate,
Speaker 3: because the one thing Trump did is he tied her
Speaker 3: to bite and he you know, he says she's Bien.
Speaker 3: And the one moment I thought she seemed the most
Speaker 3: bristle is when she was like, well, I'm not Biden,
Speaker 3: and then she realized what she had done. Well I'm
Speaker 3: not Trump either. I mean, like if you look at
Speaker 3: kind of the thought going through her mind, like what
Speaker 3: now that that could be George argh. She said I'm
Speaker 3: not Trump either, like I'm different, you know, I'm a
Speaker 3: new generator. But it was like she was defensive on that.
Speaker 3: And people know, the moderators will pointing out when they
Speaker 3: thought Trump didn't say something right, even though I'm not
Speaker 3: even sure that the things they pointed out that Trump
Speaker 3: said that they said, we're wrong, We're actually even wrong.
Speaker 3: I mean, everybody's seen the video on the internet of
Speaker 3: the the police officer and the body cam arresting the
Speaker 3: woman who people say was eating on the cat. I mean,
Speaker 3: that isn't made up. That's real. That body cam is
Speaker 3: out there, but I can see it. So now I've
Speaker 3: seen even by a dog. But I mean the fact is,
Speaker 3: some of these there's a lot of crazy stuff going
Speaker 3: on in this town. And there's also I mean a
Speaker 3: lot of voodoo stuff corner and a lot of that
Speaker 3: community now too. So you know fbio statistics, I mean,
Speaker 3: there's a lot of questions about whether they're cooking the books.
Speaker 3: I mean, so there's a lot of things they correct
Speaker 3: to Trump on that may not even be right. So
Speaker 3: it did have the field that the moderators were own
Speaker 3: her side in such a way that you didn't come across.
Speaker 3: I mean, when Trump compliments Dana Bash and Jake Tapper,
Speaker 3: I gotta tell you something like that was a fair debate.
Speaker 3: They didn't get in there. And frankly, I think if
Speaker 3: Trump could get a fair debate, he should do another one.
Speaker 1: That's the challenge is, you know, trying to get a
Speaker 1: fair debate, and you know, just seeing sort of even
Speaker 1: the media research centers, the studies about how the media
Speaker 1: is covered this truncated election cycle, you know, where basically
Speaker 1: she's getting almost one hundred percent positive coverage and you
Speaker 1: know he's getting almost one hundred percent, you know, negative coverage.
Speaker 2: We've got more with Robert.
Speaker 1: But first, as we approached the one year mark of
Speaker 1: the horrific events of October seventh in Israel, the International
Speaker 1: Fellowship of Christians and Jews invites you to join them
Speaker 1: in Flags of Fellowship, an opportunity for Christians to remember
Speaker 1: the victims, honor the heroes, pray for those still held hostage,
Speaker 1: and highlight the unwavering support of Christians for Israel and
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Speaker 1: be praying for those impacted by the war and planning
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Speaker 2: That's one word. Support IFCJ dot org. Support IFCJ dot org.
Speaker 1: If you would assess where things stand today, you know,
Speaker 1: where does this election stand? Honestly nationally because you know
Speaker 1: obviously that doesn't really matter as much, but in the
Speaker 1: battleground states that are ultimately going to decide the electoral
Speaker 1: College outcome.
Speaker 2: You know where do you think this election stands?
Speaker 3: Well, I'll put it to you this way. We kind
Speaker 3: of went through this on our latest podcast and people
Speaker 3: should check it out polling plus type into polling with
Speaker 3: the first podcast it comes up. But we we talked
Speaker 3: about we're going to do each one of the battleground
Speaker 3: states and uh I did the most recent bowl in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3: I had Trump up by two and I will tell you,
Speaker 3: in my experience with the Democrat organization on the ground there,
Speaker 3: get out the vote and whatever that entails. Leave that
Speaker 3: out there. I don't think two points is enough to
Speaker 3: win Pennsylvania, think you better be leading it by more
Speaker 3: than two points. So I'd say Pennsylvania is a loss
Speaker 3: right now. Michigan, I think I had it that even
Speaker 3: Matt Twery's last poe had Trump up by one. That
Speaker 3: might be enough, but I think Michigan is only dependent
Speaker 3: on what happens with the Middle East and the guys.
Speaker 3: The thing ate whether the community of Arabs or Muslims,
Speaker 3: and they're actually separate community, not separate communities, but they're different.
Speaker 3: Not every one of the Arabs is a Muslim, but
Speaker 3: there's one group and they feel very strongly about that,
Speaker 3: and depend upon how they feel about Kambala and where
Speaker 3: they participate. Probably the Trump two wins Michigan Wisconsin. My
Speaker 3: mother recent one had Trump up by zero point eight.
Speaker 1: Which is probably the same problem as Pennsylvania, where you've
Speaker 1: got to get above that margin of error.
Speaker 2: If you're going to win a state.
Speaker 3: Like that, I would think you've got to win, you know,
Speaker 3: a little bit better than that. Arizona. Arizona is probably
Speaker 3: one that Trump can win. Uh. The most recent poll
Speaker 3: that Matt did there had I mean, Carry Lake was
Speaker 3: only behind by four uh and Trump was up, So
Speaker 3: I think I think Arizona is one that could be won.
Speaker 3: Nevada I've learned my lesson. I have been had my
Speaker 3: butt keep three times trying to say Nevada is going
Speaker 3: to vote Republican because what they do the Saturday for
Speaker 3: that election, the money before the election, with all the
Speaker 3: early voting, and the buses and the vans and and
Speaker 3: and frankly just good hard work.
Speaker 2: Well it's the Harry Reid turnout machine, right.
Speaker 3: It is fantastic. I mean, I am envious of what
Speaker 3: the Democrats do, so I'm not going to make a call.
Speaker 3: I don't care how good it looks Republicans Georgia. I
Speaker 3: think George is possible. They've got a lot of things
Speaker 3: to tighten things up and George, they haven't addressed be
Speaker 3: seen biggest problem in Georgia, which is what had people
Speaker 3: watching video of ballot boxes being stuffed and being told
Speaker 3: it was fair. What they don't understand was, here's the
Speaker 3: problem to the law. If somebody cast fifty ballots and
Speaker 3: forty nine are illegal, they're guilty of forty nine counts
Speaker 3: of voter fraud. However, all fifty ballots are to be counted.
Speaker 3: That is a flaw in the law. And that is
Speaker 3: why you saw the video you did, and yet those
Speaker 3: weren't illegal balance and they have not fixed that. Now
Speaker 3: bringing those ballot boxes inside and their all film, if
Speaker 3: people know their own film, I think will limit it.
Speaker 3: But that's a real problem and that really should be
Speaker 3: addressed by the law. They ought to be able to
Speaker 3: go in there when they see that and try to
Speaker 3: isolate those those ballots, whether it's fingerprints or whatever. But
Speaker 3: if you notice some of those videos, they are wearing
Speaker 3: rubber gloves. I mean, they were worried they were going
Speaker 3: to do that. So that's a real problem, and I'm
Speaker 3: not sure how they handle that, but they have to
Speaker 3: do something because it just it's an issue. But I
Speaker 3: still think Georgia can be one. And I've never been
Speaker 3: a believer that North Carolina is going to go Democrat.
Speaker 3: I mean North Carolina has traditionally had I mean they've
Speaker 3: Republican everything, even twenty twenty two they said legislative high
Speaker 3: water marsh for both the House and the Senate in
Speaker 3: North Carolina got super majorities in twenty twenty two, and
Speaker 3: they will every Senate seat. Every state went office except governor,
Speaker 3: and in the past the past two gumatrolection. They just
Speaker 3: had bad candidates, and so even if the candidate for
Speaker 3: governor doesn't win, that doesn't mean the state just defaults
Speaker 3: to D. So I think North Calaina is going to
Speaker 3: go for Trump, and at that point there's got to
Speaker 3: be one. And so it really right now, if I
Speaker 3: had to save the election today, i'd say it to hers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, because what you just laid out does not get
Speaker 1: them to two seventy's.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but what what I mean? And we hear stuff
Speaker 3: all the time about the level of organization. The Democrats
Speaker 3: are very good at this, and they don't just talk it,
Speaker 3: and they don't just put crappy, you know, computer programs
Speaker 3: on their phones. They have people on the ground, like
Speaker 3: a thousand paid operatives in Georgia for the Republican versus
Speaker 3: Democrat runoffs for Senate when they were both up. I mean,
Speaker 3: like that's incredible. In the Atlanta airport, like kids wearing
Speaker 3: colored shirts gathering up at the airport, all coming in.
Speaker 3: I mean, one of a map ran to someone organizing
Speaker 3: on Christmas Eve in a hotel conference room when they
Speaker 3: were going to have dinner at a hotel. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is the this is the kind of dedication they have,
Speaker 3: and so I don't see anything on the Republican side
Speaker 3: to equal that level of grassroots. And part of it
Speaker 3: is the Republican Party's real problem is a bunch of
Speaker 3: donor money that goes to people who squandered. There's not
Speaker 3: a profit big profit margin to make about organizing grassroots.
Speaker 3: No vendor gets rich doing it. But it's the single
Speaker 3: most important thing that can be done. And that's that's
Speaker 3: that's literally what people who know the system worry about
Speaker 3: is there's so much profitteering on the Republican side and
Speaker 3: not of attention to winning.
Speaker 1: No, that's that's uh, obviously a huge concern. You know,
Speaker 1: you look at some of the fundamentals of this race
Speaker 1: in the sense of, you know, the economy is the
Speaker 1: number one issue, that's the issue that you know he
Speaker 1: does the best on, you know, even uh, even after
Speaker 1: the election. You know, CNN's own poll found that, you know,
Speaker 1: we're the confidence and have him on the issue of
Speaker 1: economy increased after the debate. And then you look at
Speaker 1: the other issue of you know, the New York Times
Speaker 1: finding that you know, sixty one percent of Americans want
Speaker 1: major change from President Biden. You know, the majority obviously
Speaker 1: see him as the change. Is that enough to you know,
Speaker 1: try to push him closer to two seventy as we
Speaker 1: kind of you know, I know you said the race
Speaker 1: today is probably hers.
Speaker 2: Or what does he need to do? Do you think?
Speaker 3: Well? I think he needs to do. The campaign is
Speaker 3: the one thing that I think has been operated very well.
Speaker 3: I mean, whether it's their ads, of their strategy, or
Speaker 3: the towns that they can do their rallies. I mean,
Speaker 3: they're doing their job extremely well, and I think they
Speaker 3: just need to keep on doing what they're doing. The
Speaker 3: other thing to remember is the social desirability bias, the
Speaker 3: thing that we were very good at predicting in twenty
Speaker 3: sixteen of what the difference between what people said and
Speaker 3: who they're really voting for. You know, some people call
Speaker 3: that the Bradley effect, and that goes back to a
Speaker 3: race apparently with governor candidate named Duke Magian and a
Speaker 3: candidate named Bradley. He was the mayor of Los Angeles,
Speaker 3: and all the Poles said Bradley would win because people
Speaker 3: wanted to say they were voting for the African American
Speaker 3: candidate because it made them look more open minded, but
Speaker 3: they actually voted for Dick Magian. So when you consider
Speaker 3: their people who don't want to say they're voting for
Speaker 3: Trump alone, and then the fact that they're people who
Speaker 3: are saying their voting for Kamala who don't intend to,
Speaker 3: there could be a double social desirability bias going on.
Speaker 3: So I will hold out the possibility that Trump might
Speaker 3: have an advantage in these states that is not seen
Speaker 3: right now. But I think that everyone should act as
Speaker 3: if he's going to lose right now and redouble their
Speaker 3: efforts because it's on the cusp and the energy is there,
Speaker 3: and the real people who want this, I mean, look
Speaker 3: at the reaction they got going through the Shanks Billed
Speaker 3: fire Department. I mean, those are real people, you know,
Speaker 3: those are those are just real Americans and not any
Speaker 3: particular racial, you know, ethnic, They're just real Americans, firefighters,
Speaker 3: and they know who the real guy is. They know
Speaker 3: who the real person looking out for them is. So
Speaker 3: I mean, I do have hope and confidence that there
Speaker 3: may still be a hidden vote out there that we're
Speaker 3: not seeing. But I do think that she she came
Speaker 3: across as a little bit argumentative and a little bit snarky,
Speaker 3: and he made a couple really good points I said
Speaker 3: before the one whe he talked about he compared her
Speaker 3: to Biden. And then what he said, Well, if you
Speaker 3: really want to do this, why don't you just go
Speaker 3: down to Washington and get him to sign the stuff
Speaker 3: he needs to sign to close the board. I mean
Speaker 3: that resonated people like you gotna matter, do it, don't
Speaker 3: talk about it, you can get this done today. And
Speaker 3: you know that's some of the feedback we got that
Speaker 3: that meant something. So I think he I think he
Speaker 3: might not have had the best night, but I think
Speaker 3: he landed a few little singers that that that will
Speaker 3: end up standing the test of time.
Speaker 1: You also look at some of these voter registration numbers,
Speaker 1: and you know, Republicans are you know, at least winning
Speaker 1: on that game in a lot of these states, especially
Speaker 1: when you look at Pennsylvania for instance. Does that maybe
Speaker 1: speak to the fact that there might be you know,
Speaker 1: sort of headen Trump supporters or new voters that you
Speaker 1: know are obviously harder to identify for for Polsters.
Speaker 3: It does. But I will tell you the and we've
Speaker 3: always thought this was coming, but I think the Taylor
Speaker 3: Swift effect, I mean is going to be is going
Speaker 3: to be strong I mean, I'm worried about when Taylor
Speaker 3: Swift just asks all of for people. What if she
Speaker 3: throws a free concert and all you got to do
Speaker 3: is give money to buy I mean to give money
Speaker 3: to a Kamala to go. She could do something like
Speaker 3: an online concert and you have to give money to
Speaker 3: them to be able to log in here. I mean,
Speaker 3: who knows what she could do, but I think they
Speaker 3: could raise a bunch of money, and I think they
Speaker 3: could get a bunch of young ladies that the last
Speaker 3: thing on their mind was voting, kind of gen zs
Speaker 3: who were just not live there yet and engage them.
Speaker 3: But I can say is so far, what we've seen
Speaker 3: is is gen Z boys are not big on on
Speaker 3: this whole Swift thing. And I do see a real
Speaker 3: ethnic divide on the fans of Taylor Swift. So there
Speaker 3: may be there may be there may be some wash
Speaker 3: fact on that some some people who were our less
Speaker 3: likely to go that way.
Speaker 1: We've also seen, you know, a big gender gap between
Speaker 1: the two candidates, where so I mean, you know, women
Speaker 1: do tend to vote more than men, but you know,
Speaker 1: how significant is that gender gap and you know kind
Speaker 1: of how does that play in certain of each candidate's
Speaker 1: favor or against them as well.
Speaker 3: Well. The gender gap is biggest at the youngest, and
Speaker 3: it works. The weapon dissipates. Uh. Gen Z has the
Speaker 3: biggest gender gap of all. I mean, it is it
Speaker 3: is just dark. Gen Z mails are very different than
Speaker 3: millennial males. Gen Z mails are looking for. There's been
Speaker 3: so much confusion about what it means to be a
Speaker 3: man in this world, and you know, all these phrases
Speaker 3: like toxic masculinity and stuff like that. I mean, they
Speaker 3: are looking toward towards, you know, a man's man kind
Speaker 3: of like Trump. They I mean they are. It's part
Speaker 3: of why there's such a huge growth and some even
Speaker 3: the the more violent uh you know, fighting sports. I mean,
Speaker 3: this group is looking to kind of recapture manhood and
Speaker 3: so they see a lot of that in Trump, and
Speaker 3: so that is where a lot of it's focused. And
Speaker 3: the older we see the people, the less it is
Speaker 3: a huge gender gap because what we found is a
Speaker 3: lot of for example, married women who have a few children,
Speaker 3: they become a lot less focused on abortion and the
Speaker 3: right to have an abortion than some of their younger counterparts.
Speaker 3: And so it's it is, it is, it is a
Speaker 3: significant gender gap. I don't know that it is solvable
Speaker 3: at this point with what's baked in, but I do
Speaker 3: think that it is useful for motivating the people on
Speaker 3: either side because what I would tell you is the
Speaker 3: the females are better voters, and so it's the challenge
Speaker 3: of the Republicans to get their male counterparts to show
Speaker 3: up in that kind of number as well. And I
Speaker 3: think it's really possible, and we can see that gap.
Speaker 3: And the younger Black community there's a significant gender gap
Speaker 3: with them too. I mean, most of the strength that
Speaker 3: Trump has with with black voters is black males underpicked.
Speaker 1: Obviously very concerned about her being the president.
Speaker 2: You know, our country would be screwed.
Speaker 1: We've got to take a quick commercial break. More with
Speaker 1: Robert on the other side, it looks like Republicans at
Speaker 1: the very least are on track to win the Senate.
Speaker 1: You know, kind of what have you seen in sort
Speaker 1: of the Senate lands escape in terms of Republicans trying
Speaker 1: to take back the Senate, And then you know, sort
Speaker 1: of what are you saying for the House races and
Speaker 1: Republicans trying to retain the majority in the House.
Speaker 3: I've said for a while I think the House is
Speaker 3: going to go the way the President's race is going
Speaker 3: to go. It's just that tight. Whichever way has the momentum.
Speaker 3: I think the Senate's going to the Republicans. I would
Speaker 3: say the next best shot, especially if Trump does a
Speaker 3: really good job as McCormick. McCormick has run a fantastic campaign.
Speaker 3: He's just done. He's just kind of hit all on
Speaker 3: all cylinders, and I think that is a chance to
Speaker 3: win one. I think that Rogers, if that little age
Speaker 3: that Trump can gather in Michigan can be gathered, Rogers
Speaker 3: could become up across and depending on how strong immigration plays,
Speaker 3: and I think it's going to play big in Arizona,
Speaker 3: I could see I see carry Lake. I mean four
Speaker 3: points back is not not that far back. And I
Speaker 3: think in that state, just on the issue of immigration
Speaker 3: and the strong status of immigration, could that could make
Speaker 3: a difference, you know, And I would love to tell
Speaker 3: you that Sharon Brown could lose. But the problem is
Speaker 3: is there's just not any kind of equality in the spending.
Speaker 3: And you know, I worried that some of the same
Speaker 3: old Mitch McConnell crowd is the one spending that the
Speaker 3: pack money again this year, and they were very ineffective
Speaker 3: last year. I mean, they blew two hundred and fifty
Speaker 3: million dollars to win one Senate seat, and it was
Speaker 3: ridiculous some of the support that didn't. I mean, when
Speaker 3: you look at how little Blake Masters got, it was insane,
Speaker 3: just because Blake said he wasn't going to vote McConnell,
Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden he's just isolated and
Speaker 3: a lot of money was raised with the promise it
Speaker 3: was going to go to Senate races that were on
Speaker 3: the cusp dog I handed Lisa Murkowski, who had she lost,
Speaker 3: would have only lost to someone more conservative to her
Speaker 3: than her. So and that was McConnell. Pay him back
Speaker 3: a favor, but he put a lot of donor money
Speaker 3: that was supposed to go other places for mccowski. I
Speaker 3: would like to believe that there's a better effort this year,
Speaker 3: but I don't I so.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, Pennsylvania is the most important state the
Speaker 1: selection cycle.
Speaker 3: Becau.
Speaker 1: As he pointed out in the Vadis Finiki, I think Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: with her fracking issue, Trump has the most fertile ground
Speaker 1: to try to make his case to the state and
Speaker 1: then in pulling thus far, that's been the state out
Speaker 1: of the you know, the three blue Wall states that
Speaker 1: he's been pulling the best in.
Speaker 2: Is that a fair assessment or you know, I think
Speaker 2: so too.
Speaker 3: I think so. Now it's also the state that has,
Speaker 3: let's just say the most Shenanians. Yeah, I'm both three,
Speaker 3: but I think that it's a state that could break
Speaker 3: strongly for him because that is probably there's probably some
Speaker 3: buyers remorse. And the thing is, I think the switch
Speaker 3: to Kamala really made Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia more competitive.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that switch made Pennsylvania more competitive because
Speaker 3: she doesn't have the same appeal to those blue collar
Speaker 3: voters that Biden did. I mean, he could generally say
Speaker 3: I am one of you and relate to them. I
Speaker 3: mean even look look at the peer pressure when they
Speaker 3: were all just giving him a hard time of wearing
Speaker 3: the Trump hat. I mean, he wants that crowd to
Speaker 3: like him, and he sees that as his crowd. Where's that?
Speaker 3: I mean, that's just it's just Biden has always seen
Speaker 3: himself as one of those people who could relate to
Speaker 3: those people who told stories that made sense to them
Speaker 3: about how he grew up and how tough things were.
Speaker 3: So I just don't think she has that appeal and walls.
Speaker 3: He's not going to come across like a regular Midwestern guy.
Speaker 3: He's just not regulars Western guys don't don't go to
Speaker 3: China that much and do some of the stuff he's
Speaker 3: done and take some of the stands he's had. So
Speaker 3: I think we also.
Speaker 2: Wanted to put tampons in the boys bathroom.
Speaker 1: So it's like, you know, it's I think, you know,
Speaker 1: men are you know that's that doesn't really resonate, you know,
Speaker 1: or with all the people that doesn't resonate.
Speaker 3: Certainly, he's going to get the vote of every janitor
Speaker 3: because he wants to clean all that up because boys, listen,
Speaker 3: I can I can tell you what would have happened
Speaker 3: in my school tampons. They would have been very clever
Speaker 3: with the art that would have been made in that bathroom. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: that's that's that's so Jender vote locked down. So I
Speaker 3: think that I think you're right, and I think some
Speaker 3: of those issues just will start to resonate. And what
Speaker 3: I've seen with some of the these young people are
Speaker 3: so some of the memes and stuff they've done, or
Speaker 3: are just they dig in so far that people don't
Speaker 3: understand how effective that stuff is. I mean, in many ways,
Speaker 3: with the built in drifting and corruption of the Republican establishment,
Speaker 3: the reason we may survive this election is that the
Speaker 3: one to one Republicans out there who find something that's funny,
Speaker 3: that's poignant, that that will send a message to somebody
Speaker 3: who literally share that repost. That there's millions of people
Speaker 3: doing that, and I think that they may be the
Speaker 3: secret to the success if it happens well.
Speaker 1: And also, you know, I think you know, some of
Speaker 1: these interviews with you know, podcasters, uh, you know, you
Speaker 1: you're you know, it's you know, I think what's challenging is,
Speaker 1: I mean, the media might end up being the difference
Speaker 1: makers the selection cycle in the sense of, you know,
Speaker 1: if you're Donald Trump, it's just and especially with the
Speaker 1: kind of money that she's been raising, it's very, very
Speaker 1: hard to get your message across to the American people
Speaker 1: when you're met with you know, that much resistance in
Speaker 1: the form of almost you know, like ninety three percent
Speaker 1: negative coverage, or you know, with ABC ALAN or you know,
Speaker 1: the media at large. The Media Research Center eighty nine
Speaker 1: percent negative coverage and her, you know, the complete inverse.
Speaker 2: Where it's all positive.
Speaker 1: I mean that's like it's a very very hard wall
Speaker 1: to break through and get your message across to the
Speaker 1: American people.
Speaker 3: Oh, the good news is less and less people are
Speaker 3: watching that media. Yeah, it's all time low. I mean
Speaker 3: this connected TV and people just watching what they want
Speaker 3: to watch, and paid services offer a real effective way. Now,
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, Kamala Harris. Uh. You know, whether
Speaker 3: I'm at my place in South Carolina that shares the
Speaker 3: North Carolna media market the Asheville media market, or when
Speaker 3: I'm at my place in Georgia, I see the ads
Speaker 3: and I see the tarketing, and he is all over
Speaker 3: digital in a way that I do not see anybody
Speaker 3: in the Trump team. I mean you can't. You can
Speaker 3: go watch YouTube videos about Republicans and all the ads
Speaker 3: will be hers. If it's about politics at all, you'll
Speaker 3: see all of her. You'll see her ads on YouTube
Speaker 3: almost two to one, three to one. I mean just actually,
Speaker 3: I'm not it's probably worse than that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen it. I mean, I guess I've seen
Speaker 1: a couple ads from him. But you know, before we
Speaker 1: go you know what what should we be you know,
Speaker 1: obviously we would love to have you come back on,
Speaker 1: you know, before November one hundred percent, but sort of
Speaker 1: in the interim, you know what, what should we be
Speaker 1: keeping our eyes on?
Speaker 2: You know what are you watching?
Speaker 1: And you know what for those of us who aren't empulling,
Speaker 1: you know what, who we be looking at?
Speaker 3: Well? I think you should be looking at a few things.
Speaker 3: As far as the polls I like to, I mean,
Speaker 3: the real clear politics has put together, you know, averages
Speaker 3: of which polling firms are consistently at the lowest air
Speaker 3: right and which ones don't. And so Emerson College as
Speaker 3: far as the college is a good one to pay
Speaker 3: attention to, and h New York Times Sienna is a
Speaker 3: good one to pay attention to. It lengths a little left,
Speaker 3: but it's a good one. And obviously inside our advantage
Speaker 3: and us, I mean we are of the four firms
Speaker 3: that do you know, more than ten states, we have
Speaker 3: the top four and Emmerson College is on one ahead
Speaker 3: of us, and that's cumulative enterprisent years. We're number one
Speaker 3: inside manage number two. So those are those are ones
Speaker 3: you can keep an eye on. Uh, the stuff you
Speaker 3: should probably be dismissive of is what comes from Bloomberg
Speaker 3: because that is just in the tank and a lot
Speaker 3: of the mainstream media, I mean, ABC is probably one
Speaker 3: of the worst. If you remember the I think they're
Speaker 3: they're they're ratings for presidential was in the bottom ten percent.
Speaker 3: I mean, they're just they're so far off. They have
Speaker 3: a margin of area like five and a half, whereas
Speaker 3: you know we're all under three from margin air raid
Speaker 3: on these things that their air rate is just horrible.
Speaker 3: So major network's not so good. And but these these
Speaker 3: are pretty good. And and beware of brand new polling
Speaker 3: firms you've never heard of that are affecting the averages
Speaker 3: just like they dug them up or created them yesterday.
Speaker 3: And and then especially go look at at whether a
Speaker 3: firm is ranked. Any firm that RCP doesn't even have
Speaker 3: in their rankings means that they were so bad that
Speaker 3: they that they made a point of not doing a
Speaker 3: poll in the last three weeks of any election because
Speaker 3: they didn't want to be they didn't want to face
Speaker 3: the scrutiny of what they said. Because a lot of
Speaker 3: these firms will stop polling within three weeks to make
Speaker 3: sure that they don't get counted. And you know, that's
Speaker 3: like the kid who tells you he's so smart to
Speaker 3: take your test. You know that's a problem. So keep
Speaker 3: on the eye all the stuff you can trust and
Speaker 3: everywhere everythings you haven't heard, and look for the possibility
Speaker 3: of some numbers of people, some social ability byas built in.
Speaker 3: But also realize just how good the Democrats to get
Speaker 3: out the vote operation is, because it is. Yeah, and
Speaker 3: we're going to see just how many yeah newie registered
Speaker 3: or you know, registers who should be registered. And the
Speaker 3: Democrats thought awful hard prevent that law from saying you
Speaker 3: had to get a citizen for a reason.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know. And CNN had him down by six
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin when the last four out of six presidential
Speaker 1: races were decided by less than one percent.
Speaker 2: So it's like, you know, obviously that's total bus.
Speaker 3: We had that we had the number one problem Wisconsin
Speaker 3: in the entire country in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean a lot of these most of these
Speaker 1: battleground states will be decided by less than one percent
Speaker 1: most likely.
Speaker 3: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: Thanks Robert Kaheley. I'm always great to have you on.
Speaker 1: Always brings so much insight. Would love to have you
Speaker 1: back very soon. Always learn so much from you, so
Speaker 1: just really appreciate you making the time. Absolutely it was
Speaker 1: Robert Kaheley with the Trafalgar Group. Appreciate him for taking
Speaker 1: the time to join the show. Appreciate you guys at
Speaker 1: home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you can
Speaker 1: listen throughout the week. I want to think John Cassio,
Speaker 1: my producer, for putting the show together until next time.