1 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 1: When you're planning out your investments and looking over a 2 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,959 Speaker 1: long time, how do you factor in the price action 3 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: into that? Is it just based off the price action? 4 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: Do you look at news that's going on UM. There's 5 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: obviously lots of news that can swirl around any investment 6 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: that could drive that, but is that more long term 7 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: or short term? Well, today I am joined with Charles Edwards, 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,560 Speaker 1: who's somebody who has managed to be able to put 9 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 1: those two things together, taking the fundamental news and then 10 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 1: factoring it into the short term price action as well. 11 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: Today we jump into a bunch of big news that's 12 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: really going on UM, specifically in the bitcoin space, regarding 13 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: China shutting down the miners, what that's done to the network, 14 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: what that's done to the hash rate and ultimately done 15 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: to the price action, and what we should expect in 16 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: the short term as well as a long term that 17 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: we dive into nation states like El Salvador adopting it, 18 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: bringing it into over six million people, and what that 19 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 1: means again in the short term on the price action 20 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: as well as the long term. We dive into the 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: lending markets, how they work, UM, why the prices are 22 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: swinging wildly on that and then what we should expect 23 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: on that, and also we get into some strategies that 24 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: even people like you and I retail investors could use 25 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: if we want to try to increase the amount of 26 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: our investment. So there's so much good information that we 27 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 1: jumped in today with Charles. UM highly recommend this. So 28 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and jump right in here. Everyone, Welcome 29 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: to another episode of the Market Disruptor Show. And today 30 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Charles Edwards. He's the founder of Caprioli Investments. UM. 31 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: He has some great insights into the market, some some 32 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: stuff that's very very relevant I'm excited to dig into. 33 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: So Charles, thanks so much for joining us today, great video. 34 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: Thanks having so. I've been following your work for quite 35 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: a while and the insights that you have into the 36 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: kind of the markets and what's going on from the 37 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: bigger picture are are very good it and so I 38 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: want to dig into that. Have you on today. But 39 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: for those that aren't that aware of who you are 40 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 1: and what you're doing, want just give us a little 41 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 1: bit of background on on what you have going on 42 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: right now. Yeah. Sure. So I'm the founder of Capital 43 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: Investments and where a last incessant manager in the crypto 44 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: space and primarily concerned with UM managing crypto and bitcoin 45 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: long run and outperforming in the long run. And we 46 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: use autonomous algorithms to try seven and tight long short 47 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: and cash positions UM and more recently this, Yeah, we 48 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: we launched out our fund for credits and professional investors. 49 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: So that's basically what consumes my time is this. Yeah, 50 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: that's that's awesome how you're doing that. It's been great 51 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: to keep up with what you're doing now. UM. I 52 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: see you UM talking a lot about UM news based events. UM. 53 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: But at the same time, you're kind of a trader, right, 54 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: You're using these algorithms to trade off of So how 55 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: do you use those two in conjunction? I mean you 56 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: just let the kind of algorithms kind of do what 57 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: they do based off of the patterns on the charts, 58 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: or do you affect those algoriy of there's be stuff 59 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: of what you're seeing out in the market and the news. Yeah, 60 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: good questions. So I like to say it's ninety five 61 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: autonomous rights. So wherever possible, we let the Olgerthans do 62 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: its thing. And and often you might see your tweeting 63 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: or saying things about direction and that's my opinion, and 64 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: my opinion will change frequently with the data as well, 65 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: but it doesn't necessarily drive the investment or trading strategy. 66 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: That said, there there can be outlie events, right um, 67 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: and there can be things which haven't happened before or um, 68 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: just which are outside of normal sort of historical conditions. 69 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: So um yeah. Great example is like more recently when 70 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: Elon does a tweet, right and and we saw particularly 71 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: Mayor do a tweet in the price and move up 72 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: to ten per cent in the direction of four or against, 73 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: depending on his mood. So there's things like that, and 74 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: there's also you know, the China macro situations. So what 75 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: what our training system will when it's higher volatility in 76 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: the market, will will call us some will assess it 77 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: and make a decision if we want to do a 78 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: bit of an overlay or reduction and exposure, um trial 79 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: to that We're possible sometimes we will, so we might 80 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: reduced position sizing for example, or or or yeah, manager 81 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: accordingly with the where we think the market picture is. 82 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: But broadly it's ninety five percent just going with the 83 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: the algorithm. Yeah, okay, um. It seems that though like 84 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: even though these these one off events happened, um, you know, 85 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 1: elon tweeting or for example. But sometimes the charts almost 86 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: move like in conjunction with that in a sense where 87 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: they have their different levels, say if you've been actually 88 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: changingment levels and they're kind of like off psychological triggers 89 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: and almost sometimes it's like the charts almost just seemed 90 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: to match up with the news somehow. Yeah, that that 91 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: is always fascinating. I suppose that's the technical animalst argument 92 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: of everything is in the price um And yeah, the 93 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: FIBONACI levels in particular, and and and certain daily and 94 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: weekly supports. It's it's it's really it is amazing decide 95 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: that you say the reality of the world actually just 96 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: line on with with simple levels on shots. Yeah, hey guys, 97 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: let me just interrupt this interview real quick, just to 98 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 1: plug the show sponsor, and that is Block Fi. Now. 99 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: Block five is doing amazing things in the bitcoin finance space. 100 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, they've cracked some really big 101 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,119 Speaker 1: news by bringing on the x cftc UM chair Chris 102 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: gian Carlo Um and they are one of the most transparent, 103 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 1: most heavily regulated UM companies inside the United States, which 104 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,679 Speaker 1: gives me a lot of trust into what the services 105 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: are now. I've recently did a video talking about how 106 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: to retire off bitcoin, and you can do that by 107 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: leveraging debt and interest against bitcoin. And Block five is 108 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: the number one company in the United States or maybe 109 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: in the world to go to and use UM. They 110 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 1: are leading the charge their paying interest on your bitcoin 111 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: if you park it with them, or you can borrow 112 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: against it. Now, as I broke down in that video, 113 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: you can borrow against your bitcoin, and when you take 114 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: debt against it, it's not taxable. It's not a taxable event. 115 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: You can use that debt for anything that you want, 116 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 1: including to live off of, to leverage up and buy more, 117 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: or roll it into another asset. UM you can do 118 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: something like I've done recently, like sell some real estate 119 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: put that money into bitcoin. Now as that bitcoin price 120 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: has risen, I'm able to borrow against it and go 121 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,799 Speaker 1: back and buy the same real estate or something similar, 122 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: and I still own the bitcoin, and I also owned 123 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: the new asset as well. Lots of ways you can 124 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: do this UM and Block five is the company that 125 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: I recommend. Down in the description, I have a link 126 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: that you can click on if you choose to use 127 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: that link. You can earn up the two d fifty 128 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: dollars in bitcoin just for using that link. So check 129 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: out block fine. Now, yeah, so if we, uh, if 130 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: we dig into some more of the news based stuff 131 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: that you're talking about. UM, I know you've been putting 132 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: out quite a bit of content on that. I think 133 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: you have a new newsletter that actually kind of focused 134 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: on it. But it seems like the big thing that's 135 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: driving the market right now is China and UM, you know, 136 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: I did a video maybe a couple of months ago, 137 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: and I was kind of showing like all the times 138 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: China has banned bitcoin and I think it was I 139 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 1: for it now seven eight times or whatever, you know, 140 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: where they've come out and banned it. Um, And it 141 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 1: seems like it's been maybe losing relevance, but this one 142 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: was like really really the big one. UM. And uh, 143 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: you know, they they banned mining in China and so 144 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: that's been a huge disruption for the network. UM. I 145 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: know that's something that you've really been focused on. What 146 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: are your thoughts on China getting out of the mining situation? Yeah, 147 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: that was a that was a really interesting scenario. We've 148 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: been going through the last two months. I suppose um. 149 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: As you say, it seems to be almost every six 150 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: or twelve months as a China ban, and you know, 151 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: basically it has their impact because it's historically until more recently, 152 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: you know, the last couple of months, China represented sixty 153 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: five of global mining for Bigcoin and the significant portion 154 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: of training. So it's a heavy concentration in China. UM. 155 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: So when when this announcement of the band came out, 156 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: it was it was it was more concerning the normal 157 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: problem because it came from high levels of government. But 158 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: there was always that it was a big question mark. 159 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: You know, we'll just been four st or maybe it 160 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: will take three or six months or a year, in 161 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: which case the impact would probably less. But it was 162 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: enforced very rapidly, and we saw as soon as individual 163 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: provinces UM enforced that ban for the government within twelve 164 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: to twenty four hours, just hash right dropped almost instantaneously. 165 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: It was just shut down. UM. It's a huge stress 166 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: in the network. The security of the network has gone down. 167 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: You can argue comparably with the hash rate. I would 168 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: say the intrinsic value has gone down as well. Comparably 169 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: with the hash rate based on energy value um and 170 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: there's good and bad from that. You know, the good, possible, 171 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 1: arguable good argument is and the long term there will 172 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: be more decentralization. In the short term, I think it 173 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: does have a big impact on value and security um 174 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: and and And the shorter term posit of that is 175 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: that because it was it was affected so fast, we've 176 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: kind of already seen eighty nine of that outcome players. 177 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 1: There's not much worse the situation can get from a 178 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: China perspective, I think, you know, may give a take 179 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 1: ten percent more hash fright reduction on an average to 180 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 1: the level, but you know, the bandit for you know, 181 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: in banking as well. So pretty much the worst case 182 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: scenario happened, and it's and it's done. That doesn't mean 183 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: the prices impact is done, but in terms of the 184 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: networking pacts, it's pretty much done, which is which is 185 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: great that assuming other conditions can hold, we can kind 186 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: of grow from, you know, I think in terms of 187 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: the network anyway. Yeah, it seems like there's a couple 188 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: of things to dig into on that, but it seems that, 189 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: you know, one of the biggest pieces of of pushback 190 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: from no coiners or people who don't really understand Bitcoin 191 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: would always say that, uh yeah, but China controls the network, right, 192 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: they have the majority of the mining, and they don't 193 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,439 Speaker 1: understand how that works, and so UM it takes that 194 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: objection away. Now China doesn't control the mining, so from 195 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: that perspective, you would think it'd be good. In addition, 196 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: UM it shows how little control one nation or who 197 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 1: whoever has control the mining has, but a so um 198 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,239 Speaker 1: shows how resilient the network is because I mean, imagine 199 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: any other type of company or any type of business 200 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 1: trying to relocate and reallocate resources. UM, and it's it 201 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: seemed to have kind of going pretty good. It's doing 202 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: what it's doing. So it seems like it's a net 203 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: win to me. But you're saying maybe not totally. I 204 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: think in two to four years it's probably a net 205 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: when probably the impact is negligible. I think in the 206 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: you know, the immediate time frames, in the next six months, 207 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: it's questionable. UM. I think as of now, it's had 208 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: a big impact and it remains to be seen how 209 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: that recovery goes. I think the scene is set for 210 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,559 Speaker 1: a good recovery. UM. Why I say that is normally 211 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,479 Speaker 1: when you have a what I call a minor capitulational 212 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 1: or big drops in hash rate. Normally, that would happen 213 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: when prices you know, you've you've seen the bubble, We've 214 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: had a blow off the top, and then price starts 215 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 1: approaching what the average costs for mining is. And that's 216 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: when miners starts with as profitability and they less efficient 217 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: ones have to either shut down or l or they 218 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 1: go out of business or what have you, and you 219 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: kind of get this cascading reinforcement downwards. Um, we don't 220 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 1: have that now in terms of the broader network because 221 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: prices around thirty thousand energy value production cost is twenty 222 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: thousand and lower, so there's a high margin still on 223 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: the market for mining. It's very profitable business. So the 224 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: other miners broadly now and not struggling. So that's great news, um, 225 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,079 Speaker 1: in that there's no reason for immediate sell pressure from them. 226 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 1: But that obviously hinges on us staying above the sort 227 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: of thirty thirty two level. Any considerable time near the 228 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: load load of mid twenties could raise that possible for 229 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: further cascade down, but I see that as relatively low 230 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: risk at the moment anyway, And as you say, it's 231 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 1: it's it's more or less, but it's more or less 232 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: played out of China, so that and and people already 233 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: setting up in Kazakhs down in the US new mining operations, 234 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 1: so that the scene is set for more growth depending 235 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: on the network broadly remaining healthy. I suppose yeah, I 236 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: mean it definitely mentioned already like it robs the security 237 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 1: of the network. Um. So if there was ever gonna 238 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 1: be a time to attack the network, it seems like 239 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: now would be the right time. Yes. Yeah, you can 240 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: argue that, you know, I haven't done the study, but 241 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: the hash right is still incredibly high, so the chances 242 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: is not happening in very low but there's you could 243 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: maybe make the case that the network it has had 244 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 1: the biggest drop right in its security ever as on 245 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 1: a relative portion, So it is it's a shock to 246 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 1: the network. Yeah. Yeah, Now you have talked about when 247 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: the hash rate drops down, um, about about the cost 248 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: of bitcoin or the value of bitcoin potentially dropping with 249 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: that hash rate, as if the hash rate is like 250 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: a floor for the price um, because I'm guessing the 251 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: way you're seeing it is the it sets a floor, 252 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: meaning the cost of production is up, so then they 253 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: have to sell for profit over that, and so if 254 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: the cost of production goes down, then potentially the price 255 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: could move down. Is that kind of the way you're 256 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: looking at it. Yeah, there's a couple of elements. So 257 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 1: first one production cost is based the energy spent to 258 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: produce the hash rates that we can observe pretty readily, um, 259 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: and the energy spent to support the network. And you 260 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 1: can then work out, based on the average cost of 261 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: electricity based on different studies that have been done on 262 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: different on minors and different locations, how much they're spending 263 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: on that, and then you can work out how much 264 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 1: they're making from mining bitcoin. And what you find is 265 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: when they when they equate, when the actual price equals 266 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: the production costs then or electrical costumers case, the raw 267 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: cost of running the network that basical electrically input. You 268 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 1: very rarely see price spend any time below that. I 269 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 1: think it touched into it briefly in March last year. UM, 270 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: but it's more or less a price flaw. So it's 271 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: a great buying opportunity when price gets down there. Now 272 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: it's it's below twenty at the moment, so that's quite 273 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: a way away. But when when I talk about the 274 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: the hash rate dropping and the value dropping. I'm referring 275 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: a bit more towards the energy value, which is another 276 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: sort of piece of work I did, which based really 277 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,559 Speaker 1: just it's it's the evaluation. What I would say the 278 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 1: valuation bitcoin basically energy and put in and there's no 279 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: formula fitting. There's no power laws or or square roots 280 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 1: or funny numbers or anything. Well, it is is the 281 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: raw jewels energy into the network times by one simple integer, 282 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: right like to get the basically to confert jewels to dollars. 283 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: And you find that it maps price very well and 284 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: price mean reverts to it. A lot of critics say, 285 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: you know, hash rate follows price um and therefore it's invalid. 286 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: I think there is that happens they hash rate definitely 287 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: does follow price. If price is going up, more people 288 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: are gonna mind to make more money. But it does 289 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: go both ways. You do see that when a minor 290 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: struggle it can preempt price drops, and it does and 291 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: big cases of that two eighteen UM and there's been 292 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: a number of more recent cases. But probably the best 293 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: um support for that is the hash driven by signal, 294 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: which has happened twelve or thirteen times now. Bitcoin's life 295 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: spam roughly once a year, and it's I wouldn't say 296 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: the best buy signal with hit rate today um for bitcoin. 297 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: So and that's based on hash rate and then followed 298 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 1: by some surprice appreciation. Um yeah, so that's that's that's 299 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: kind of how I think about it. And then when 300 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: you see the network, and you can also just think 301 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: about it that security, right, A lot of the intrinsic 302 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 1: guid bitcoin and security. If the security doesn't work, it's 303 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: worth nothing. So when that goes down, I argue that 304 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: the value goes down to m hmm okay interesting. Um yeah, 305 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: so yeah, it is kind of supply and demand. And 306 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: then you have the difficulty adjustment as well, So then 307 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: that kind of change is so right now there's an 308 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: ace premium for maining begoin because so many miners were 309 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: shut off. But when we adjust their difficulty here in 310 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: just a short couple of weeks, then that will affect 311 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: the price as well, which then maybe pushes that signal 312 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: back up. Yes, so there's some interesting it's correlated, right, 313 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: the hash rate impacts difficulty and vice versa. So there's 314 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 1: also if you look at big changes and difficulty, we're 315 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 1: gonna have I think one of these not the biggest 316 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: change soon. Yeah, often that happens again at a local 317 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: price bottle. And often we do have um as you know, 318 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: the half driven bicygnle. You get the best bicycles during 319 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: the capitulation, and we're in the capitulation now. The trouble 320 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: is that, just based on metric alan there's a ton 321 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: of volatility up and down in those periods, as we've 322 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: seen in the last um four or five weeks, but 323 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: it usually is a you know, media and mid term 324 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: um opunity for getting a long position basically. Okay, So 325 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: while we have that disrupting the network and potentially kind 326 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: of creating this bud in this downward pressure, which when 327 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: it's when the dust settle, is probably a good long 328 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: term thing, at the same time, we also have some 329 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: positive things that are going on that we kind of 330 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: have to balance out as well. Right, So, uh, it 331 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: seems like one of the big ones is the whole 332 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 1: El Salvador piece, which I know you've kind of mentioned 333 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: as well a little bit um and uh, as one 334 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: nation gets out of it, another one jumps into it. 335 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: Um and so we're seeing El Salvador kind of adopt 336 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: that as a as an as an asset, and now 337 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 1: we're seeing several other countries starting to jump in as well. 338 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 1: So how do you offset that good news? I guess 339 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 1: with I mean there's a massive demand there. Yeah, so 340 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 1: you've got to consider the weight of the evidence, right, 341 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: everything and and and added together, um El Salvador is 342 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: great news. So that's you know, it's it's just the 343 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: long term vision of bitcoin solid playing out and starting 344 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 1: in a smaller company countries like El Salvador. And and 345 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:36,719 Speaker 1: also this year was saying gradual institutional and and company 346 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 1: adoption and fund adoption of biitcoin, which is great. I 347 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: thought there would be more, probably in the last few months, 348 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,399 Speaker 1: so the big ones obviously Tesla and then Michael Sailor, 349 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 1: but then we didn't really see some of the more 350 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,120 Speaker 1: big names we thought might have happened by now, which 351 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: probably didn't contribute kind of contributed to bitcoin probably stagnating 352 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: a bit in those months. But broadly it's going the 353 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 1: right direction, and I think a lot will depend on 354 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: how that plays out from here. If we see you know, 355 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: Paraguay or other countries adding it as legal tender in 356 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: the next weeks and months, and maybe you know, more funds, 357 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: Like last week there's a two point two billion dollar 358 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: CRTO fund announced. So the more this stuff happens, the 359 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: better it is for the for the for the short 360 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: to midterm for bitcoin. So where I kind of I 361 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 1: see lots of pros and cons. So you can probably 362 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: tell that I have a bit of uncertainty where things 363 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: are now. And I've written in the newsletter that there's 364 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 1: a range between thirty two and forty thousand from a 365 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: sort of technical point of view, which we're in it, 366 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: which is kind of like no man's land, and it 367 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: will really be interesting to see if when we do 368 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: break out of that range to either side, what the 369 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: fundamental picture is. So if you look at just the 370 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: bitcoind long term sort of cyclical metrics, you could definitely 371 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: argue the cycle toppers in. I would say, if you 372 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: look at the ones that really matter, it's probably sixt 373 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: just based on big kind history of the toppers in 374 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: and we're now in a bar market. But there's also 375 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: a lot of metrics right now which are really over sold, 376 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: things like you know, the hashroom is one indicator. The 377 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: main multiple was point seven. Um, there's an argument for 378 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: the wick Off accumulation, right now and also the bitcoin 379 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 1: future sentiment. The market is heavily short or there's a 380 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 1: more of a stew to the short side, which often 381 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: means we're near a bottom. So I think locally there's 382 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 1: a there's a bottom mid term slightly higher probability of 383 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: the top being in. That said, it will really matter 384 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 1: when what the most important time will be when we 385 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: break out what the conditions are. So if we go 386 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: to forty or forty five thousand, and then everyone's like 387 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: here by the dip wall markets on and an open 388 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: interests and leverage goes through the roof again and everyone's long, 389 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: then I'll probably like, Okay, the top is in. It 390 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: depends on the conditions then, right, if we get there 391 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: and it's the opposite and people like I know this 392 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: is the dead cat bounce and the market shorting and 393 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: and and other metrics like network value undervalued and and 394 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: and the picture looks better, then then we could definitely 395 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 1: say great continuation. So I kind of wire focus on 396 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: that shorter term sort of weekly to monthly level. Um. 397 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: If you're looking, you know in multi years out, I 398 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: think you know, big coincident, right shape and things are 399 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: going in the right direction. M Yeah, So that's a 400 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: that's a really good point to bring up. It's really 401 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: about your perspective on it, right, So in the time 402 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: frame that you're looking at, So if you're not actively 403 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: trying to trade it, and you you're gonna hold it 404 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: for two three years, then now it's probably a good 405 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: time as opposed to trying to play these ranges exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, 406 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: you know, I've I've been a real estate investor for 407 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: twenty five years, and um, you know, typically you would 408 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: tell someone that wants to buy a house, at least 409 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 1: in the United States, um, you know, don't buy a 410 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 1: house unless you plan to hold it for at least 411 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: like five years, because you kind of have that that 412 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: real estate cycle. And I think we've seen in in bitcoin, 413 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: we haven't ever seen a dip more than three years, 414 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 1: so you kind of have like the same thing. So 415 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: if you have that longer term view then a couple 416 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 1: of years, then it's always probably a pretty good time 417 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: to buy. Yeah. And I would say, and that's probably 418 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: the most applicable horizon the most people investing in crypto 419 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: iron and I would say, can you tell me a 420 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: better investment actually over a five year horizon? I think 421 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: it struggled to fun once. Yeah, completely grow with up now. UM, 422 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: when we saw the price action really really jumping, you know, 423 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: over the last twelve months, twelve fourteen months, Um, we 424 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: saw as you said, you know, we saw like the 425 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 1: micro strategies jumping in, and um, maybe we didn't see 426 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: as many people jumping in as as uh as maybe 427 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 1: really did. Maybe the announcements didn't come, but we did 428 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: see some big ones. We saw you know, Mass mutual 429 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: insurance company coming in, and we've seen several big hedge 430 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: fund investors jumping in and other funds. I mean, so 431 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 1: we've seen seeing it quite a bit of movement. Maybe 432 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: we don't know about everything, but um, as that was 433 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,199 Speaker 1: going up the force, the price was kind of going 434 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: up exponential, and I wanted to jump in and talk 435 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: about like the lending and borrowing markets and so um 436 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,199 Speaker 1: the lending borrowing markets seemed to like really kind of 437 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 1: get stretched for a while, where um, they were paying 438 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: really big premiums like some of these companies the black 439 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 1: fires and whatnot, we're playing really big premiums. Um. But 440 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 1: now that started to go back down, and that seems 441 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: to me sort of like a supply and demand type metric, right, like, well, 442 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: there's not as much demand for the borrow anymore, and 443 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: so those those rates have been coming down. What's been 444 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,400 Speaker 1: going on on that that side of the market. Yeah, 445 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: that you've you've kind of said it. So as the 446 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: ball market was really playing out from saying you know, 447 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: you can choose many time for friends, and say September 448 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 1: last year to March this year, April this year, we saw, 449 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: you know, everyone wanted to buy bitcoin and crypto and 450 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 1: everything was was pumping. And what happens then is a 451 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 1: lot of the core unique contracts to bitcoin to get 452 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 1: leverage and more exposure, like the perpetual swap contracts allowed 453 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:44,959 Speaker 1: to take on incredible leverage and up to an over 454 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: audred x of your capital. And some studies by Binance, 455 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: for example, found traders used over twenty x leverage. Now, 456 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 1: those traders don't actually account for eight percent of the volume, right, 457 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: it's a smaller portion, but it still shows you that 458 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 1: any d up of five and more will liquidate them. 459 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: And then there's market cell pressure. So we're seeing more 460 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 1: and more people take longer positions and and and long 461 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: open interests grow and and in those contracts, the long 462 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: positions have to pay the short positions of funding rates 463 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: basically to hold their exposure. And that's why we got 464 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: really high funding rates and a great opportunity to get 465 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: risk free return on on on dollars for example of 466 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: up to and over thirty fift on an annualized basis 467 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: for bitcoin. So that was that was really a great 468 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: opportunity for the first few months of the year. With 469 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 1: this big collapse of fifty in the last five six 470 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,360 Speaker 1: weeks we saw that reverse. So now it's the opposite 471 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: and those rates are really dropped down, which is healthy. 472 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: It's actually healthy in terms of the growth opportunity for 473 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: bitcoin means it because you know that those people are 474 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 1: only buying basically have slowed down and it starts to 475 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 1: reverse because at some point if everyone's buying and all 476 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 1: the neighbors are buying, and your friends are buying, and 477 00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 1: the news is talking about bitcoin every day, and there's 478 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 1: eventually the rich point was minimal buys left and process 479 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: for so we kind of go up to that point. 480 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: I suppose in in hand sought and that the margins 481 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 1: of that those contracts that definitely reduced. And I'm sure 482 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,400 Speaker 1: there will be other opportunities in the future when extremities 483 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: happen to the apple downside where they returned. But at 484 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 1: the moment, it's more or less. Yeah, the the opportunity 485 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,199 Speaker 1: there is more or less going. So so explain to 486 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,239 Speaker 1: everybody exactly are a little bit better how that works. So, um, 487 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: you're using exchange or you can have leverage, um, and 488 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: so you're gonna go whatever twenty x long. So I 489 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: entered that twenty x long. But in order to do that, 490 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: the exchange then has to fulfill the shorts to cover 491 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: that while I hold that open. So then they're borrowing 492 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: in one of these other markets. UM, I don't do 493 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 1: that obviously, right, I'm doing it with the exchange. They're 494 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 1: kind of handling that for me. Hey, sorry to interrupt 495 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: this video just one more time. I'm not running Google ads. 496 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 1: So it's actually way less interruption than I normally would 497 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 1: have on a video. And that's because it's sponsored by 498 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: block five. Um. They are opening up the world of 499 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin and financial products offering to pay you interest on 500 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 1: your bitcoin. UM better than own in a rental property 501 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: that you have to manage and control and have the risks. 502 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 1: You can just earn interest on it, or you can 503 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: leverage against it. Now, I plan to hold my bitcoin 504 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: forever and literally never sell my bitcoin. So how do 505 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 1: you do that? Well, if I need money, I don't 506 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 1: want to sell that bitcoin. I'm gonna pay tax on it, 507 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna end up with less and I 508 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 1: don't have the bitcoin anymore. So a better way to 509 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 1: do it is to borrow against the bitcoin. So I've 510 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: put all my money into bitcoin. If I want to 511 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: buy a car, or I want to buy a house, 512 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: I can borrow against it at very very low competitive rates. 513 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: Get my house, get my car, whatever that may be, 514 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: and get to keep the bitcoin. I've done a whole 515 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 1: video on this. You can find it. I'll link it 516 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 1: down in the description below, how to retire off a 517 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: bitcoin without paying taxes, and you can do that with 518 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 1: Block five services. A link to the video down below. 519 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: I'm also going to put a link to block five 520 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,479 Speaker 1: if you choose to click on that link to check 521 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: them out. You can earn up to two fifty free 522 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: bitcoin just for using that link. And that's it. Let's 523 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: go ahead and get back to the interview. Yeah, exactly. 524 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: So they just automatically deduct this funding right normally every 525 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 1: eight hours and there's a basis rate of point o 526 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 1: one roughly is ten to top cent a year to 527 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 1: pay to hold that position because you're aspectively borrowing capital 528 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,360 Speaker 1: right to take your leverage trade. So they're borrowing at 529 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 1: so there'll be they'd be borrowing at twelve whatever and 530 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 1: then um, I might if I had put my money 531 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: at one of these lending companies, then I might make 532 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 1: eight percent, and then they're making the spread on that. Yes, 533 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: So if you want to do the if you want 534 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: to do the trade to make the risk free opportunity, 535 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 1: you would you would for example, if you had ten bitcoin, 536 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 1: um you could one act short those bitcoin and you 537 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 1: get paid the funny rate because the longest pay the 538 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 1: shorts if if the funny rate is positive, but it 539 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: varies over time, so right now it's yeah, negative to 540 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: zero region at the moment. Right. Well, I guess that 541 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: if if they were going long and I wanted to 542 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 1: go short against that, then that would kind of offset 543 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 1: that I was. I was kind of asking more about 544 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 1: like these lending markets. Right. So there's a couple of 545 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: companies I've seen, you know, tweet about nexo, like by Celsius, 546 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 1: et cetera. Right, and so they kind of do they 547 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 1: kind of facilitate those types of trades for the exchanges 548 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,439 Speaker 1: or that's more for like funds like you. Yes, So 549 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 1: I'm not sure of their arrangement with ex changes and 550 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 1: how that works. When I've spoken about those of the 551 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: companies block Fire, for example, in the past, it's more 552 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 1: about the opportunity to to put your say you've got bitcoin, 553 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: you want to keep your big cooin exposure, you might 554 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: put your bitcoin on a platform like that, and then 555 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 1: they will give you collateral to take out a loan, 556 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,680 Speaker 1: so you can then say you've got ten bitcoin or something. 557 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 1: You might take out five bitcoin worth of of dollars, 558 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,959 Speaker 1: so you know, just making numbers easy. You say it's 559 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: fifty dollars you take out, then you can go and 560 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 1: buy a bitcoin and shorter, so you cancel our position. 561 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: You still net u s dollars and earn the funding, right, 562 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 1: And that's what you could have done earlier in the year. 563 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 1: But the opportunity now is for the time has gone. 564 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,160 Speaker 1: You know, could in a week or two could be back, 565 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,439 Speaker 1: but right now is not a lot of opportunity, and 566 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 1: the opportunity is gone because the price action has changed 567 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 1: in a sense, so now there's not as many people 568 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: long as there used to be. Exactly the open interest, 569 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 1: the number of open contracts got destroyed. In the last 570 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 1: two months there was the most open interests we ever 571 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: had in bitcoin and it's down. Don't have the numbers 572 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 1: on me, but so fifty six over that period. And 573 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 1: and the relative portion of people taking long positions to 574 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: shorts was extremities to the long side back then and 575 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 1: now it's more or less normalized to being slightly more shorts. 576 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: So that's why that opportunity is more or less gone. 577 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: But it's it's when you get extremities in the market. 578 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:48,719 Speaker 1: So we we had a number you know that looking 579 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: back at at prior cycle tops, we didn't have a 580 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: clear top signal. I would say in the last few 581 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: months we did have extremities which were in a topping zone. 582 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 1: But normally we'll get a lot more extend into overvaluation 583 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 1: and prior ball runs. But when you do see things 584 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 1: like the mayor multiple get above you know, one point six, 585 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: and other things like mvrv so market value to realize 586 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: value and unrealized profit the last get up to really 587 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: higher levels. That along with some of these other metrics 588 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,719 Speaker 1: like umu. The open interest shows you how extended the markets. 589 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 1: And when the market is extended, that's when you get 590 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 1: the best opportunities in terms of these rest free trades. Right, 591 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 1: and so now we're an hour. Now we're stuck. So 592 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: sometimes I guess it goes from the long and then 593 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: maybe everyone piles in the shorts and then you would 594 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 1: reverse just reverse that same trade. Yeah, yeah, that that 595 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: inferious possible. Yeah yeah, okay, um so anybody looking to 596 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 1: take those opportunities and you have to wait till we 597 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: get into a streaming ball market again. Yeah, there's definitely 598 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 1: still some opportunities out there for more you know complex 599 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: you know, involving options and things. But that one was 600 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 1: like it was, it was so easy. It was way 601 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 1: a couple of you make a couple of transactions and 602 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 1: your dominant locking that interest, right, and that one now 603 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 1: is more or less subsided. I'm sure we'll be back again, 604 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: but for now, yeah, okay, Yeah, it seemed I was 605 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 1: hearing a lot about that, and then of course obviously 606 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: things slowed down. Um when you see uh, but when 607 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: you see I know you mentioned earlier before like micro 608 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 1: Strategy and what they've done and like they've been continuing 609 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 1: to build um or i should say, borrow money to 610 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: continue to go along. And it seems like even just 611 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: the one they just did recently, even with the price 612 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 1: depressed as it was still oversubscribed. I mean that shows 613 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,479 Speaker 1: a ton of um. Seems like a ton of interest. 614 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 1: And uh, that's almost like a levered way to play long, 615 00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 1: isn't it. Yes? Yeah, that and that was that was 616 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 1: a good result that it was I subscribed. I was 617 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 1: a bit worried before I got the announcement of how 618 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 1: it would go given, but you're right, it's that there's 619 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 1: still some solid institutional interest in the market, which is 620 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 1: really positive. Yeah, food marks started to definitely, it's that 621 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: leveraging fact. Yeah yeah. And I mean, would that be 622 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: comparable to the average retail trader um either either one 623 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 1: borrowing against his money with black fire or even using 624 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 1: like a whole equity line or something to like lever up. Well, yeah, 625 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 1: there's there's the argument that the retail traders can be 626 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 1: easily liquidated by the exchanges if there's a price movement 627 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: and they're highly leverage, Whereas you could argue then you 628 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 1: know those cases both ways. For this that Michael sailor 629 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 1: can't be given his control over the company and vision 630 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 1: um that. You know, that would be interesting to see 631 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 1: what happens if we did see price back down around 632 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: the twenty thousand's UM how how that would really play out. 633 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 1: But I think it's less much less risky in terms 634 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: of UM you know, the leverage impact that could have 635 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 1: where I see it as as possibly risky. I made 636 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 1: a tweet the other day that you know, subsequent UM 637 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: the sailor tweets that they're buying more is not really 638 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: a good thing at the moment, because, uh, if he's 639 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 1: the only institution buying, it's it's it's great that it 640 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: shows institutional buying, and when I've subscribed, that's good. But 641 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: you want to see more institutions buy, not just the 642 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,960 Speaker 1: one sort of player for concentration risk, but also just 643 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: just just as broader economic interest in bitcoin and evidence 644 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: of that growing over time. So you know, any announcement 645 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 1: from another SMP one company or something like that in 646 00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: the coming months would be incredibly how would say bullish. 647 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,600 Speaker 1: But we did have a country, Yeah, we did have 648 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 1: a kind of positive we did. We did have a country, 649 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,400 Speaker 1: so that that was pretty big. And then we have 650 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 1: Nate Egg announcing that they're going to bring on three 651 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 1: hundred million checking accounts to buy sell on Stora bitcoin 652 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: um by the end of the year. So I mean 653 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 1: that's so. So the news has continued to pile on, Yes, 654 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: and I you know, when you look back at eighteen 655 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: early eighteen, I think right now that given the damage 656 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 1: has been done with the price in the network, at 657 00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:57,239 Speaker 1: least the announcements we have are probably more positive than 658 00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: we had back then. We didn't really have a lot. 659 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 1: I think it happening sort of March aples of two nine, 660 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 1: so it is, it's definitely positive and um yeah, it's 661 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,520 Speaker 1: we're kind of in the no man's land now where 662 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 1: there's good arguments for that we over extended and there's 663 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 1: definitely locally I would say bullish and you know, sort 664 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: of bottoming scenario here and will really depend what happens 665 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 1: when we get any kind of break out of that 666 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 1: and where the fundamentals sid and if we have countries 667 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: or companies making announcements, I think that will really impact 668 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: the next six months or so. Yeah, on a little 669 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: bit of opinion based like speculation. I mean back to 670 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 1: the kind of micro strategy thing. Um, you had mentioned, 671 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:37,800 Speaker 1: you know, if the price drops down to twenty thousand, 672 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: we'll see how he handles that. Um I think their 673 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: average is with somewhere twenty six thousand or something like 674 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: that right now, so if it dropped down to twenty thousand, 675 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: then it's below there, below their average. But the way 676 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 1: that it's set up, I mean, it's all based off 677 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 1: of borrowed right or debts. So as long as you 678 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: can continue to service the debt, you shouldn't really pose 679 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,400 Speaker 1: any risk. And they're throwing off with thirty million of 680 00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,600 Speaker 1: free cash flow per year, so they they borrowed it 681 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:02,720 Speaker 1: almost near zero, so it seems like covering that debt 682 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 1: for extend a period time shouldn't probably be the bing 683 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 1: of a problem. Yeah, I think structurally it's it's probably 684 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:14,080 Speaker 1: one of the safest holdings in that regard and and 685 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: and and giving his control as the company. The question is, 686 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 1: you know, how will people and him react if there 687 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 1: was major losses in that position? Um I. I think 688 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:27,879 Speaker 1: if we did get down to that region at least 689 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,879 Speaker 1: in the near term, and say it's twenty thousands or something, 690 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 1: it's not going to be for long. It probably be 691 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 1: maybe a day or something like that in the back 692 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,239 Speaker 1: of the truck. Yeah, is that I think that would 693 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,120 Speaker 1: be a great buying opportunity. Um, but it remains to 694 00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,840 Speaker 1: be seen, right, I don't know how like if situation 695 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,279 Speaker 1: turns more negative or or or we did go into 696 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 1: an extent at down to a bear market, then you know, 697 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,440 Speaker 1: who knows how he would he would hold up in 698 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,279 Speaker 1: a in that scenario where you know, it hasn't been 699 00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 1: seen yet. But yeah, generally speaking, I think it's relatively 700 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:02,840 Speaker 1: safe from you know, probably putting on probably list together 701 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: of what he might do. I think he's made it 702 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,719 Speaker 1: pretty pretty clear his intention to hold, but he did 703 00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: more recent announcements say that they could sell something, So 704 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: there is that possibility of selling action on their side. 705 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 1: Yeah alright, Um, Well, like I said, well, what what 706 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,600 Speaker 1: the time will tell? I suppose, Um, if you want 707 00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,120 Speaker 1: to tell us a little bit about your fund, I 708 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 1: think they would be pretty interesting to dig into a 709 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:27,359 Speaker 1: little bit. So I know you have this phone, you've 710 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:28,920 Speaker 1: had it gone for a couple of years. We've kind 711 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,879 Speaker 1: of already touched on some of the things that you're doing. Um, 712 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,799 Speaker 1: but you want to tell us about that? Yeah, So 713 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,479 Speaker 1: the fund itself just launched this year in March. But 714 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 1: our investment strategy and now and there's an a lot 715 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 1: of licensese a matter of many capital have been doing 716 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 1: that for almost two years. UM. So yeah, as I 717 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,359 Speaker 1: mentioned the start long short algorithmic strategy primarily bitcoin um 718 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,439 Speaker 1: with intent about point be kind of the long run 719 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,319 Speaker 1: and you know today full quarters today, over the last 720 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 1: seven quarters, we have achieved at every quarter. Um. You know, 721 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 1: the ust A couple of months definitely has been intense 722 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 1: and we haven't you know, done as well as what 723 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 1: we liked. You know, we've got on the wrong side 724 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,799 Speaker 1: of some some positions, I suppose, but that that's you know, 725 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:12,719 Speaker 1: never it's never enjoyable to go through it. But that's 726 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 1: part of the game where you're you're investing in the 727 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,440 Speaker 1: most volatile asset in uh you know, the asset class 728 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,680 Speaker 1: in the world that you do get these periods of 729 00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 1: our under performance. But we we as long as we're 730 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 1: achieving our to on the long run about performing, then 731 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,040 Speaker 1: we're we're happy. And we have been doing that so far. 732 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,719 Speaker 1: And is that outperforming annually or what what what's your 733 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:38,240 Speaker 1: what's your goal out performing quarterly annually quarterly to annually? 734 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,840 Speaker 1: So we we've done it today quarterly, Um, and we 735 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 1: just over extent, you know, quarterly, six monthly, that sort 736 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,839 Speaker 1: of time horizon. We want to be on the right 737 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 1: side of it. Yeah. And so who do you primarily 738 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 1: work work with or who you're looking for? Uh, well, 739 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,960 Speaker 1: we we can only yeah, we we Our investors are 740 00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,120 Speaker 1: either credited or professional investors, so you have to make 741 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,600 Speaker 1: a certain number of criteria to come onboard. But yeah, 742 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,320 Speaker 1: we're open to those those sort of people globally. And 743 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,439 Speaker 1: and there is this a bitcoin investment or a cash 744 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 1: investment or either way, it doesn't matter either way. Yeah, 745 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 1: but somebody who probably believes in bitcoin once that wants 746 00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:18,439 Speaker 1: to go along with it. But it makes a little 747 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,759 Speaker 1: bit better sense, I would imagine. Yeah, it's a bit 748 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,240 Speaker 1: of a mixture of interest there, I suppose. Yeah. Yeah, 749 00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,560 Speaker 1: all right, Well that's a really good recap on where 750 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 1: we're at in the market. It's interesting to hear how 751 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 1: much you're into these fundamentals but yet at the same 752 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,719 Speaker 1: time driving the fund on the on the signals. But 753 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: it is interesting how they line up. Um, I'm gonna 754 00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 1: go ahead and make sure we link to your funds 755 00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,400 Speaker 1: and your Twitter account. Is there anywhere that you want 756 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 1: to direct people. I know you write like a newsletter 757 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,200 Speaker 1: like anything like that. Yeah, that's the matter. You've just 758 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,239 Speaker 1: said it. So I most active on Twitter and our 759 00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 1: website Capriola dot com, and we write a monthly newsletterus 760 00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,080 Speaker 1: so most recently talking about China and and that impact. 761 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:01,759 Speaker 1: Yeah awesome, all right, Charles, Well with that, I guess 762 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 1: we'll would and sign it off. We'll make sure to 763 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,320 Speaker 1: link all that stuff down on the show notes down below, 764 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 1: and then um, with that, thanks for joining us. Stay 765 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 1: so if you thanks mont right here all right, thanks, yeah,