WEBVTT - Is There a Hollywood Use Case for Crypto and Blockchain Tech?

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Strictly Business Varieties, weekly podcasts featuring conversations with

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<v Speaker 1>industry leaders about the business of media and entertainment. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Cynthia Lyttleton, co editor in chief of Variety. This episode

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<v Speaker 1>is a departure from our usual format of diving into

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<v Speaker 1>industry issues. I'm extremely late to the party, but in

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<v Speaker 1>the past year or so, I've been trying to come

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<v Speaker 1>to an understanding of cryptocurrencies. It's not easy, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not too proud to say that I still don't understand

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<v Speaker 1>how you create intrinsic value by having computers crunch through

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult math problems. But let's set that aside. As

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<v Speaker 1>I learned more about blockchain, it occurred to me that

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<v Speaker 1>technology built around transparency might one day be the antidote

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<v Speaker 1>to Hollywood accounting problems. Hollywood deal making has historically been

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<v Speaker 1>built around properties that kick off royalties and profit participation

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<v Speaker 1>payments for decades to come in success. Could blockchain and

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<v Speaker 1>its decentralized approach to banking be useful for situations like movies,

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<v Speaker 1>TV shows, music, and Broadway shows where a number of

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<v Speaker 1>participants might have small stake in the profits of a

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<v Speaker 1>property Over time To answer these questions and more. I

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<v Speaker 1>look for experts who bring different opinions to the microphone.

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<v Speaker 1>We start with Tarun Chitra, founder and CEO of research

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<v Speaker 1>and investment advisory firm Gauntlet. Chitra is also the co

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<v Speaker 1>host of the podcast The Chopping Block, which is my

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<v Speaker 1>favorite podcast for trying to decipher what's happening in this

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<v Speaker 1>digital arena. After Chitra, we get a much different perspective

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<v Speaker 1>on DeFi or the decentralized finance boom, from Lee Reiners,

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<v Speaker 1>a professor at Duke University who studies financial regulation. Reiners

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<v Speaker 1>has become a leading voice of skeptics who question whether

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<v Speaker 1>there are genuine use cases for crypto beyond some of

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<v Speaker 1>the nefarious things that it's become associated with, like ransomware attack.

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<v Speaker 1>All of this heady stuff is coming right up after

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<v Speaker 1>this break, and we're back with conversations on crypto, starting

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<v Speaker 1>with Tarun Chittra, founder and CEO of research and advisory

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<v Speaker 1>firm Gauntlet. Tarun Chiitra, founder and CEO of Gauntlet and

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<v Speaker 1>a research and investment advisory firm that works in the

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<v Speaker 1>crypto space. Thank you so much for joining me today.

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<v Speaker 2>Great to be here. Thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 3>I came across Tarun and his work in my interest,

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<v Speaker 3>my sort of burgeoning interest and just trying to understand

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<v Speaker 3>what was going on with crypto, what did all this

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<v Speaker 3>stuff mean?

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<v Speaker 1>I did not like so many of it. I had

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<v Speaker 1>no idea. I had no idea what people were talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>I barely, you know, could define what crypto was down

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<v Speaker 1>the rabbit hole of reading in podcasts, many many podcasts,

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<v Speaker 1>and the one that I just fell for from pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much from first listen is called the Chopping Block, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's four guys. Tarun is one of them, and they

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<v Speaker 1>just get they're very active in crypto, they're investors, they're

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<v Speaker 1>in the space, they're clearly in the trenches, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>smart and they're funny.

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<v Speaker 4>Some of the fun is listening. It's almost a puzzle.

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<v Speaker 1>I listen and I'm trying to you know, I hear

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<v Speaker 1>the terms and then I try to back out and

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<v Speaker 1>fit and figure it out.

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<v Speaker 4>But I really enjoy. But what I really what.

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<v Speaker 1>In all seriousness, you four do really well is tackle big,

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<v Speaker 1>big concepts, and you use plain language, and you in

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<v Speaker 1>the way that four guys talking poor friends talking to

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<v Speaker 1>each other can kind of really get to the heart

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<v Speaker 1>of something you explain really complicated things in very plain language.

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<v Speaker 4>And you also, I really.

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<v Speaker 1>Feel like you pull no punches in terms of whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's people in the world, in the crypto world, and

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<v Speaker 1>there's there's no shortage of drama and headlines and litigation

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<v Speaker 1>around a lot of those folks. But what are the

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<v Speaker 1>benefits of the DeFi the decentralized finance offered by crypto

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<v Speaker 1>and blockchain technologies to markets, to markets like the Hollywood

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<v Speaker 1>content business, which does have its own unique sort of

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<v Speaker 1>characteristics of how profits are made and how they're dispensed

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<v Speaker 1>over a long period. But let's just start with the

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<v Speaker 1>sense of like the appeal of DeFi.

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<v Speaker 2>One framing that I like to have around DeFi is,

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<v Speaker 2>anytime you use a fintech apps, they use Venmo, or

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<v Speaker 2>use PayPal or zell or something like that, Right, you're

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<v Speaker 2>generally using things that are not real dollars. They're actually

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<v Speaker 2>synthetic claims on real dollars. So you only get those

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<v Speaker 2>real dollars when you say, hey, I'm with drawing to

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<v Speaker 2>my bank account. Right, But yet you generally treat those

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<v Speaker 2>synthetic claims to dollars as effectively a dollar. Right, So

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<v Speaker 2>if I have twenty dollars in my Venmo count I'll

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<v Speaker 2>send you ten dollars. We both technically have two claims.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, there's an IOU from Venmo that owes me

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<v Speaker 2>ten and IOU that owes you ten, whereas it started

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<v Speaker 2>with an IOU that only owed me twenty. And so

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<v Speaker 2>this idea that people have gotten so comfortable with not

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<v Speaker 2>holding real cash and holding these kind of synthetic claims

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<v Speaker 2>everything from credit cards to Apple pay. It's sort of

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<v Speaker 2>been a thing that's sort of, i would say, from

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<v Speaker 2>the nineteen eighties onwards, been a big change in how

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<v Speaker 2>people deal with money. On the other hand, it's actually

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<v Speaker 2>one thing that is kind of crazy is that you

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<v Speaker 2>can't really program things you do with that money. You

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<v Speaker 2>can't really do risk seeking transactions with that type of money. So,

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<v Speaker 2>for instance, I can't use Venmo to pull together money

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<v Speaker 2>from multiple people to like buy real estate or to

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<v Speaker 2>invest in a company. I would have to go through

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<v Speaker 2>the normal banking system, go through the normal legal system, right.

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<v Speaker 2>And one of the reasons for this is that it's

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<v Speaker 2>very hard to guarantee in a sort of in a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of ways, the effective sort of property rights of

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<v Speaker 2>a dollar in different environments, so that IOU that I

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<v Speaker 2>have in Venmo is different than the IOU that I

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<v Speaker 2>have at Zell, which is different than the IOU I

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<v Speaker 2>have when I go into my Robinhood account. And this

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<v Speaker 2>idea that you have this these different IOUs that are

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<v Speaker 2>not interoperable is effectively one of the reasons it's very

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<v Speaker 2>hard to do sort of risk seeking transactions with those

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<v Speaker 2>those claims on dollars. In crypto people, the number one

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<v Speaker 2>product that has usage is what's called a stable coin.

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<v Speaker 2>Stable Coins are these IOU style representations of dollars. So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you have a wallet, you might have one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred stable coins in it, or you might have a

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<v Speaker 2>thousand sable coins in it. And the difference is those

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<v Speaker 2>dollars can be used on any application of blockchain. It's

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<v Speaker 2>as if, you know, you could just send money from

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<v Speaker 2>Venmo to Zelle. It's as if you and I could

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<v Speaker 2>both create a new Venmo account called real estate Purchase account,

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<v Speaker 2>and we both send money to it, and then we

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<v Speaker 2>both can invest with it. But we both have to sign.

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<v Speaker 2>We all have to sign a transaction says hey, will

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<v Speaker 2>we approve this transaction.

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<v Speaker 4>And we both have rights to do this, and and we.

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<v Speaker 2>Both have rights, and we have some way of codifying

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<v Speaker 2>the contractual obligations and liabilities of those pool ed assets.

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<v Speaker 2>So fundamentally DeFi exists to service stable coins and also

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<v Speaker 2>native kind of crypto finance. But I think the part

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<v Speaker 2>that you know, I think excited people and also led

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<v Speaker 2>to it growing dramatically is effectively the idea that people

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<v Speaker 2>could do these kind of risk seeking transactions with dollars

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<v Speaker 2>and have use them in many apps. There's no kind

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<v Speaker 2>of restriction on them. For people out there side of

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<v Speaker 2>the US who want to have dollars or want to

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<v Speaker 2>have access to dollar dollarized banking systems, this became a

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<v Speaker 2>really big thing, especially in twenty twenty one and today

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<v Speaker 2>and places like Turkey and Argentina. The main thing about

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<v Speaker 2>DeFi is that when you have this notion of permissionlessness,

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<v Speaker 2>where you know, anyone can build a smart contract that

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<v Speaker 2>allows you to pull together assets to facilitate a trade,

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<v Speaker 2>or to lend out those dollars someone else for a yield.

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<v Speaker 2>Those types of contracts, they have slightly different properties than

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<v Speaker 2>normal finance. One thing that's sort of endemic or hidden

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<v Speaker 2>the normal finance is that you know when there is

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<v Speaker 2>a trusted third party, you make a lot of you

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<v Speaker 2>can make a lot of particular assumptions about how.

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<v Speaker 1>The city that's what you mean like Wells Fargas Bank

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<v Speaker 1>and trusted third party being an old fashioned financial.

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<v Speaker 2>Institute, or like a broker like Robinhood or something, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>like I was like you know, tdum error Trade. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>also including kind of like doc brokers and I'm lumping

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<v Speaker 2>them all together.

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<v Speaker 4>For an extension of big big banking.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Yeah, is that there's a lot of constraints. So

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<v Speaker 2>I'll give you just a sort of simple example that

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<v Speaker 2>hopefully all straight why designing these smart contracts is harder,

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<v Speaker 2>and why the understanding the risk in these contracts is harder,

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<v Speaker 2>and this you know, sort of why my company exists.

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<v Speaker 2>But one of the reasons I I'm going to do

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<v Speaker 2>this is so you can see that, you know, in

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<v Speaker 2>order to make these kind of like permissionless dollars that

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<v Speaker 2>anyone could build apps to that can can immediately you know,

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<v Speaker 2>transfer balances and pool together assets and take risk on.

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<v Speaker 2>The benefits of it are high, but also the development

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<v Speaker 2>costs is high relative to something that's using the existing

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<v Speaker 2>banking system. So imagine that you have you're a seller

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<v Speaker 2>of an item. And let's say you have a famous

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<v Speaker 2>artwork and you're running an auction and it's an in

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<v Speaker 2>person auction, so you know, we go to the town hall,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm on the stand, are paddles, we have our paddles,

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<v Speaker 2>and like you know, the seller is doing the you know,

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<v Speaker 2>one dollar, one dollar, two dollars, two dollars, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>a sending price English auction. One assumption you make in

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<v Speaker 2>that scenario is that the seller is also not a buyer,

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<v Speaker 2>because well, the seller is not you know, they can't

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<v Speaker 2>be in two places at once. They're not cloning themselves

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<v Speaker 2>and also bidding in their auction, right, But in the

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<v Speaker 2>permissionless online world, that's very different. The seller could very

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<v Speaker 2>easily make clones of themselves and be buyers in there

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<v Speaker 2>an auction. Now you might say, why would the seller

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<v Speaker 2>want to do that? Exactly, they want they want to

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<v Speaker 2>push up the price so that other people have to

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<v Speaker 2>bid higher than what their true value is. And in

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<v Speaker 2>a permissionless world, you have to assume that that's true

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<v Speaker 2>by default. Right, when you do an auction with the

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<v Speaker 2>trust the third party, you usually assume, hey, they're not

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<v Speaker 2>going to do X. And if there's any evidence, then

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<v Speaker 2>I go sue.

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<v Speaker 4>Them, right, so you have toil and write.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there's still fees here. It's just more that they're

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<v Speaker 2>not as adversarial the sense of you assume that if

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<v Speaker 2>they did some malicious thing, you would be able to

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<v Speaker 2>sue them or prove it in some way and then

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<v Speaker 2>use the legal system as a way of enforcing your rights.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>But this in the online world, that's not true. And

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<v Speaker 2>so this has also been not true even at large

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<v Speaker 2>big tech companies. So you know in Googles online ad auctions,

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<v Speaker 2>the DOJ. One of the strongest cases the DOJ has

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<v Speaker 2>against Google is actually that Google purposely spoofed in their

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<v Speaker 2>own auctions, like acted as a bidder to push up prices,

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<v Speaker 2>exactly as I was describing. And so there is a

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<v Speaker 2>sense in which when you design these systems such that

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<v Speaker 2>I can have the digital IOU dollars move around everywhere,

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<v Speaker 2>I need to design them with the assumption that because

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<v Speaker 2>there's no trust at third party, people can be colluding arbitrarily,

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<v Speaker 2>and someone who's selling me something might also be trying

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<v Speaker 2>to be manipulating the auction, and so this type of

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<v Speaker 2>stuff is you need to actually build these systems such

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<v Speaker 2>that they the profitability of doing such things is actually low,

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<v Speaker 2>not just hey, I'm going to hope it works because

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<v Speaker 2>I can sue them. Right, those are two different standards.

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<v Speaker 2>One is actually much more. You know, you're trying to

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<v Speaker 2>mathematically ensure they bring not profitable.

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<v Speaker 1>And they all know lawsuits are a terrible way to

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<v Speaker 1>enforce law.

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<v Speaker 4>They're just you know, wasteful.

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<v Speaker 1>And horrible and only you know, only the wrong, only

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<v Speaker 1>the wrong people prosper.

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<v Speaker 5>Right, Yeah, for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>And so I think I think like there's a sense

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<v Speaker 2>in which these crypto applications and define particular are built

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<v Speaker 2>around building basic primitives that you would find in banking

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<v Speaker 2>and finance, but in such a way that they're resistant

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<v Speaker 2>to this type of collusion. And so it's it's a

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<v Speaker 2>lot harder to build those systems there. They have to

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<v Speaker 2>be resistant to much different types of adversaries, and they

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<v Speaker 2>you know, if they break or they get hacked, then

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<v Speaker 2>the money is sort of all gone. It's not like

0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.520
<v Speaker 2>it's not like a bank where there's a legal system.

0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:01.200
<v Speaker 2>On the other hand, because of that, it's very easy

0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 2>once they do work for people around the world to

0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:08.080
<v Speaker 2>use these things easily, and so the reason people are

0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.640
<v Speaker 2>excited about it is like it basically unbundles a lot

0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:14.560
<v Speaker 2>of banking services and makes it easy to use. You

0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 2>can kind of think of DeFi as sort of user

0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:19.559
<v Speaker 2>generated finance, and the same way that a lot of

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.320
<v Speaker 2>social networks are sort of deal with user generated content,

0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 2>like users making podcasts, users making videos. There's a sense

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.400
<v Speaker 2>in which finance has never really had user users could

0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 2>never really generate products, right, It's not like traders who

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.199
<v Speaker 2>are trading on the stock market that the same can

0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 2>like create a new financial instrument. But if you look

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.040
<v Speaker 2>at crypto, like if you look especially if you look

0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:44.960
<v Speaker 2>at meme coins, people are creating and destroying assets all

0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 2>the time, right.

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 1>And so there's people like me with meme coins and

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:51.959
<v Speaker 1>those coins. I mean all that, you know, these things

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 1>that come out of thin air. I just it's as

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.640
<v Speaker 1>hard as I fry, like how does this thing have

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 1>value beyond a bunch of people's snarking about it on

0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.160
<v Speaker 1>on X nowadays.

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:05.280
<v Speaker 4>But you know.

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.440
<v Speaker 1>That's why there's just a leap that the a leap

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:10.960
<v Speaker 1>there that you know. But then then I guess in

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>that sense, it does become like a security or or

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:17.200
<v Speaker 1>a collectible. You know, it's that Jimmy Hendricks poster that

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 1>is going to you know, gain in value in age

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.160
<v Speaker 1>because somebody, some other huge fan is going to want

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>it someday framed on their wall.

0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 4>Is that Is that a reasonable way to think about it?

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 4>Or am I totally off?

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 2>I think that's certainly one way if you're going to

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 2>I think like people, you know, if you I think

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.000
<v Speaker 2>it's better to actually make a bit of a connection

0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.640
<v Speaker 2>more to like traditional tech companies to Facebook and Google.

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 2>From my perspective, they are derivatives exchanges, whether they want

0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 2>to say that they are or not. I mean, obviously

0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.840
<v Speaker 2>legally it helps them to not be, but in some

0:14:56.920 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 2>ways they are creating and destroying derivative assets on demand.

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:04.120
<v Speaker 2>So let's say an advertiser says, hey, I want to

0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:08.000
<v Speaker 2>target women in New York who are between twenty and

0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 2>thirty who live in a particular neighborhood. Suppose no one

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 2>goes on to Facebook who matches that criteria, Well, then

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:19.800
<v Speaker 2>the advertisers' dollars don't get spent, and you can almost

0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.000
<v Speaker 2>think of it like an option, Like the advertiser bought

0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.440
<v Speaker 2>the option for the right to sell to add to

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 2>those that demographic. On the other hand when those users

0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 2>go on the network. You could effectively think of Facebook

0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 2>as exercising the option on behalf of the advertiser and

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.320
<v Speaker 2>creating a new financial product, which is the ad impression

0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:44.200
<v Speaker 2>that they made on demand to a particular set of users,

0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 2>and then they destroyed when those users are not present.

0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 2>And in that sense, you can almost view this idea

0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:57.040
<v Speaker 2>that there exists financial assets that are created and destroyed

0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.680
<v Speaker 2>on demand in turn response to events and just in

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 2>time as sort of something that is is true, very

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 2>true to like Internet native assets versus not Internet native assets.

0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 2>And I think this idea that we have things that

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.120
<v Speaker 2>can be kind of created on demand and then sold

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 2>that are like sort of these sort of more complex

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:21.080
<v Speaker 2>financial assets that is something that we all live with

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:23.200
<v Speaker 2>and breathe with every day on the Internet, but we

0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:25.240
<v Speaker 2>don't it's not transparent to us. And I think in

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:27.880
<v Speaker 2>the crypto world that's actually quite the opposite. It is

0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:31.680
<v Speaker 2>like it's very clear that that's what exists versus kind

0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 2>of you know, what you see in normal stuff. So

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.720
<v Speaker 2>you know, the reason I bring this up is like,

0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:40.680
<v Speaker 2>you know, you're mentioning the thing. It's like the Jimi

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:44.160
<v Speaker 2>Hendrix album that maybe I bought early. Well, the ad

0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 2>impression is the same thing. It's not actually clear it

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.920
<v Speaker 2>has any value, but the advertiser is paying a premium

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 2>for the right to sell to that demographic if they exist.

0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 1>Right, And going back to you know, they're like, there's

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.600
<v Speaker 1>definitely precedent for the you know, if you can bring

0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:05.800
<v Speaker 1>me there's very time sensitive advertisers, car advertisers, movie studio advertisers.

0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:07.159
<v Speaker 1>I will pay you a lot of money for an

0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.720
<v Speaker 1>advertising for an audience over these two weekends, and if

0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 1>you don't deliver, you owe me money. So there's real

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:17.680
<v Speaker 1>precedent for that kind of an agreement in a business transaction.

0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:18.360
<v Speaker 1>That's interesting.

0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:22.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I think all that you're having with cryptos

0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.200
<v Speaker 2>like people being able to do that in a sort

0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 2>of permissionless way, like I can create you know. The

0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 2>difference in the Facebook case is Facebook controls the entire

0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:35.520
<v Speaker 2>creation of these financial assets, right, an advertiser can request something,

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:38.359
<v Speaker 2>but like unless Facebook actually does the exercising of like

0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:41.200
<v Speaker 2>delivering the ads, so the user then, like you, it's

0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:43.919
<v Speaker 2>never really happening. And crypto the point is that the

0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:47.040
<v Speaker 2>blockchain can do that execution for you without needing kind

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 2>of the central party in the middle, and I sort

0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.879
<v Speaker 2>of think that's that's one of these things where, yes,

0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.160
<v Speaker 2>these things, it's like they might not have initial intrinsic value,

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.359
<v Speaker 2>but their attention to commy type of things, where like

0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 2>there is a particular time and place where they might

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.920
<v Speaker 2>suddenly be valuable in the same way that the Jimmy

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.320
<v Speaker 2>Hendrix album probably was peak value twenty years ago and

0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 2>maybe it's flat or down a little bit now.

0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.399
<v Speaker 1>It has occurred to me that entertainment is a business

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>where you have a lot for the creative community. You

0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:19.960
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of people, you have a lot of

0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 1>properties that can generate significant revenue and profits, especially over time.

0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.840
<v Speaker 1>You have a lot of profit participation deals, and sometimes

0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:30.960
<v Speaker 1>you can have a number of people that have small

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 1>stakes in something that will kick off meaningful revenue over

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.400
<v Speaker 1>a long period of you know, thirty forty fifty years

0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:39.640
<v Speaker 1>if you're lucky. And now I mean in the world

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.840
<v Speaker 1>of IP it's you know, just preasure prove time, so.

0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.520
<v Speaker 4>You have long tail, long payoff periods.

0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.960
<v Speaker 1>And it occurred to me that oh and sorry, and

0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.760
<v Speaker 1>then of course the history of Hollywood accounting people fighting

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 1>over wait a minute, it made this much, but you

0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:58.120
<v Speaker 1>took you took that much off the top, you padded

0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:02.639
<v Speaker 1>it all these fighting over Hollywood accounting. Wouldn't in the

0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.199
<v Speaker 1>twenty first century, in the modern era, wouldn't blockchain something

0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 1>that is theoretically not theoretically, but you know, something that

0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:15.639
<v Speaker 1>is open, available for all to see, can't be can't

0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:18.480
<v Speaker 1>be jimmied with, but actually can only be. You know,

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.719
<v Speaker 1>it's supposed to keep everybody honest and all the transactions

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:26.879
<v Speaker 1>are supposed to be fairly recorded and you know, there

0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 1>for all to see. So wouldn't that in a way

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 1>be a good way to handle something like that? Or

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 1>am I once again? Am I just completely off? Does

0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:36.680
<v Speaker 1>that make any sense?

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah? So, I mean this gets back to this type

0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:41.560
<v Speaker 2>of thing I was talking about before, which is like

0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:46.840
<v Speaker 2>the current fintech application stack, like the ven Mozelle, Revolute whatever.

0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:51.800
<v Speaker 2>If we're really, really, really really squinting, they are lipstick

0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.600
<v Speaker 2>on a pig. They are front ends that are built

0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:56.080
<v Speaker 2>around the existing bank system.

0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:56.320
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 2>They make it a lot easier to use, to make

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.960
<v Speaker 2>the front ends more intuitive. They hide a lot of

0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 2>the fact that banks are running nineteen sixties servers still

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:09.720
<v Speaker 2>in some cases. But their lipstick on a pig. They

0:20:09.880 --> 0:20:13.120
<v Speaker 2>don't control their own destiny in the sense that they

0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:17.200
<v Speaker 2>can't do risk activities. They can't do the type of

0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:19.320
<v Speaker 2>thing you're talking about where people are pulling together money

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:23.080
<v Speaker 2>and investing in an endeavor without a bank being involved

0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:27.200
<v Speaker 2>and syndicating it. And this gets back to this idea

0:20:27.240 --> 0:20:30.000
<v Speaker 2>that in DeFi, where I can program these kind of

0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:33.280
<v Speaker 2>risk seeking activities where people can pull together assets and

0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.400
<v Speaker 2>use them in certain ways, that sort of being able

0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:38.320
<v Speaker 2>to do that without a bank, and I can write

0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 2>my own code that gives the covenants for the law

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:45.000
<v Speaker 2>and the contracts implied. That is this idea of being

0:20:45.080 --> 0:20:47.159
<v Speaker 2>user generated and finance like I actually like that's a

0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:50.280
<v Speaker 2>better way of thinking of DeFi than the name decentrazed finance,

0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:53.320
<v Speaker 2>which is you can create whatever you want and you

0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 2>can do these risks seeking things, and you don't need

0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.879
<v Speaker 2>a bank to be the custody of your funds and

0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:01.119
<v Speaker 2>custody of the funds. You can have this kind of

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:05.399
<v Speaker 2>smart contract manage these IOUs and it's transparent to people.

0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 2>And so I think the hardest part for using a

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 2>lot of this stuff for non Internet native and non

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 2>digital the digital assets is you have what's called the

0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:18.280
<v Speaker 2>oracle problem. If someone needs to convey what is happening

0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.600
<v Speaker 2>off chain to the smart contract, right, someone needs to say, hey,

0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 2>we produce this movie, and we got five hundred dollars

0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:30.360
<v Speaker 2>of revenue, so here's you know, I make a.

0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:33.040
<v Speaker 1>For you, and twenty five dollars for the director, twenty

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:34.080
<v Speaker 1>five dollars for the star.

0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:34.880
<v Speaker 4>That kind of thing.

0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:38.439
<v Speaker 2>But in an adversarial environment, like the person who receives

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:40.720
<v Speaker 2>the five hundred dollars might report only four hundred and

0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:43.400
<v Speaker 2>ninety five to the contract and keep an extra five

0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:46.800
<v Speaker 2>for themselves. Right, So there's this. For offline things, you

0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:50.480
<v Speaker 2>have to have some way of you know, the blockchain,

0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:53.320
<v Speaker 2>and like computers in general have no way of verifying

0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:58.080
<v Speaker 2>this offline thing actually took place, right, And in the

0:21:58.119 --> 0:22:00.960
<v Speaker 2>normal world we also don't have a way of verifying it.

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:03.520
<v Speaker 2>We have a way of suing people afterwards if we

0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:04.040
<v Speaker 2>think that.

0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:05.199
<v Speaker 4>It happens, and then the courts.

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 2>The courts are exactly right like and there's a sense

0:22:09.040 --> 0:22:11.399
<v Speaker 2>in which that is oftentimes the biggest thing. Whereas for

0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:14.840
<v Speaker 2>digital native assets things online already, it's very easy for

0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:17.399
<v Speaker 2>them to prove that they got cash flow in a

0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:21.880
<v Speaker 2>certain way. So one type of thing that's very similar

0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:24.440
<v Speaker 2>to this. That's sort of similar to what you're talking about.

0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:26.320
<v Speaker 2>That I've seen some people start to try to do

0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:33.520
<v Speaker 2>is lending online lending to people who are creators. So

0:22:33.640 --> 0:22:37.080
<v Speaker 2>people say, who are like YouTube creators who based on

0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:40.800
<v Speaker 2>their statistics sense, based on like you can you can pop,

0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 2>you can anyone can go to YouTube and verify. You

0:22:44.760 --> 0:22:47.399
<v Speaker 2>know you're trusting Google, but like at some point, like well,

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:49.359
<v Speaker 2>they're the ones hosting it, so there's there's no real

0:22:49.400 --> 0:22:52.640
<v Speaker 2>incentive initially for them to lie. You can go look

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:54.359
<v Speaker 2>at how many followers someone has. You can go look

0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:57.119
<v Speaker 2>at how many likes, and many people can submit that

0:22:57.160 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 2>to a smart contract, and like if everyone submits roughly

0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:02.160
<v Speaker 2>the same answer, the contract can say, Okay, this person

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 2>has ten thousand followers and their videos get one hundred

0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:10.040
<v Speaker 2>k views a day, and currently there's some price that

0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:14.240
<v Speaker 2>Google is paying per view on average, and so we

0:23:14.359 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 2>expect that this creator will actually.

0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:20.119
<v Speaker 4>Have a predictable cash flows.

0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:21.199
<v Speaker 2>And you can lend against that.

0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 1>Hold on to your bitcoin. We'll be right back after

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:32.720
<v Speaker 1>this shortbreak, and we're back with new perspective on the

0:23:32.720 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 1>crypto market from Duke University professor Lee Reiners. Professor Lee

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Reiners of Duke University. Thank you so much for joining

0:23:41.000 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 1>me today.

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:42.560
<v Speaker 5>It's great to be with you.

0:23:42.960 --> 0:23:44.359
<v Speaker 4>Tell me what sparked.

0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:47.199
<v Speaker 1>Your interest in crypto and why have you been so

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 1>willing to be out there and be a voice of

0:23:50.000 --> 0:23:54.400
<v Speaker 1>skepticism as to the real world use case for this

0:23:54.760 --> 0:23:57.480
<v Speaker 1>most cutting edge technology.

0:23:57.800 --> 0:24:00.960
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think, you know, my interest was sparked like

0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:03.359
<v Speaker 5>so many folks interests, which was just you know, I

0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:05.520
<v Speaker 5>was just curious, right, you know, I was beginning to

0:24:05.920 --> 0:24:09.159
<v Speaker 5>hear and read about, you know, this new form of

0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:13.479
<v Speaker 5>digital money that was independent of the government and the

0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:15.679
<v Speaker 5>central bank, and it was peer to peer, and it

0:24:15.720 --> 0:24:18.080
<v Speaker 5>was going to you know, disrupt the banks and you know,

0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 5>didn't rely on intermediaries, and so you know, I just

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:23.680
<v Speaker 5>started to dive in and learn what I could. You know,

0:24:23.680 --> 0:24:25.359
<v Speaker 5>at the time, I was actually working at the federalis

0:24:25.480 --> 0:24:28.199
<v Speaker 5>or a Bank of New York, you know, so I was

0:24:28.240 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 5>a examiner of large financial institutions, and so I kind

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.879
<v Speaker 5>of you know, shared some of the early crypto communities

0:24:36.920 --> 0:24:42.879
<v Speaker 5>skepticism of the legacy financial system. Right. And if you

0:24:42.920 --> 0:24:46.919
<v Speaker 5>actually go back to you know, the Bitcoin White Paper,

0:24:46.960 --> 0:24:49.480
<v Speaker 5>which is what launched us, you know, all this cryptocurrency

0:24:49.480 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 5>stuff we're talking about today. You know, that was Halloween

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:55.480
<v Speaker 5>two thousand and eight. The first bitcoin transaction occurred in

0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:58.159
<v Speaker 5>January two thousand and nine, and that first transaction actually

0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:01.479
<v Speaker 5>created a reference to a headline from the Times of

0:25:01.520 --> 0:25:06.240
<v Speaker 5>London about bank bailouts in the UK. So, you know,

0:25:06.280 --> 0:25:08.359
<v Speaker 5>from the kind of very beginning, I sort of thought

0:25:08.400 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 5>that I was kind of ideologically aligned with this community, right,

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 5>I mean, a bank examiner is not a job you

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:16.320
<v Speaker 5>go into if you think, you know, Wall Street is

0:25:16.320 --> 0:25:19.679
<v Speaker 5>the greatest thing since slice spread, right, So that was

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:23.760
<v Speaker 5>kind of my my initial foray. Then about seven years ago,

0:25:23.800 --> 0:25:27.439
<v Speaker 5>I came to Duke and I started teaching classes on

0:25:27.520 --> 0:25:30.439
<v Speaker 5>you know, financial regulation, regulatory policy, and so I just

0:25:30.440 --> 0:25:33.359
<v Speaker 5>started to think about, you know, how does cryptocurrency fit

0:25:33.800 --> 0:25:39.120
<v Speaker 5>or not fit within existing regulatory frameworks and how should

0:25:39.720 --> 0:25:44.119
<v Speaker 5>financial policy makers and regulators adjust. And so I was

0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:47.400
<v Speaker 5>starting to write about crypto, you know, back in twenty seventeen,

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:49.639
<v Speaker 5>twenty eighteen. I mean, it's an attorney ago and I

0:25:49.720 --> 0:25:53.240
<v Speaker 5>like the joke Cynthia that crypto years are like dog years, right, right,

0:25:53.320 --> 0:25:56.919
<v Speaker 5>So it's been a it's been a long time. You know,

0:25:57.280 --> 0:25:59.560
<v Speaker 5>I never would have thought that the industry would have

0:25:59.560 --> 0:26:02.879
<v Speaker 5>gotten to point in size and scale and notoriety and

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:05.840
<v Speaker 5>you name it, and you know, the industry and the

0:26:05.880 --> 0:26:08.600
<v Speaker 5>assets to five predictions from the very beginning. So you know,

0:26:08.640 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 5>I can guarantee you whatever predictions I make today with

0:26:10.960 --> 0:26:13.960
<v Speaker 5>you are probably going to be wrong, just like most

0:26:14.000 --> 0:26:17.160
<v Speaker 5>everyone's predictions about crypto have been wrong from the very beginning.

0:26:17.560 --> 0:26:21.000
<v Speaker 5>But you know, I started to get concern. I guess

0:26:21.000 --> 0:26:26.160
<v Speaker 5>as time went by and some of the proposed benefits

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:30.200
<v Speaker 5>of crypto really didn't materialize, and we're starting to see

0:26:30.880 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 5>the harms, right, very real and tangible harms, And that

0:26:34.720 --> 0:26:38.200
<v Speaker 5>really hit home for me, I would say, in twenty

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:44.160
<v Speaker 5>twenty one. And if folks remember the Colonial pipeline, heck, right,

0:26:44.280 --> 0:26:46.359
<v Speaker 5>and you know that was a big deal. Obviously it's

0:26:46.359 --> 0:26:50.600
<v Speaker 5>a big deal of nationwide, but especially here on the

0:26:50.640 --> 0:26:54.399
<v Speaker 5>East Coast and the Southeast, because you were seeing you know,

0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:57.159
<v Speaker 5>gas shortages, right, I mean you would drive by a

0:26:57.200 --> 0:26:59.359
<v Speaker 5>gas station and it was closed, or you know if

0:26:59.359 --> 0:27:01.320
<v Speaker 5>they did have gas, like a long line. You know,

0:27:01.359 --> 0:27:04.119
<v Speaker 5>these are scenes that you know, most Americans haven't seen

0:27:04.240 --> 0:27:06.280
<v Speaker 5>since you know, the air of oil embargo in the

0:27:06.640 --> 0:27:07.840
<v Speaker 5>late seventies, right.

0:27:07.640 --> 0:27:09.919
<v Speaker 4>Since I was about ten years old. So yeah, that's right.

0:27:09.960 --> 0:27:12.080
<v Speaker 5>I'm not going to date anyone here, but I will.

0:27:12.200 --> 0:27:15.919
<v Speaker 5>But you volunteered, so, you know, and and and the

0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:21.560
<v Speaker 5>reality is is that, you know, ransomware is fueled by cryptocurrency. Now,

0:27:21.560 --> 0:27:24.320
<v Speaker 5>it's true that ransomware does predate crypto, but you weren't

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:26.800
<v Speaker 5>reading about it on the front page of the New

0:27:26.880 --> 0:27:30.119
<v Speaker 5>York Times in the Wall Street Journal. And the fact

0:27:30.240 --> 0:27:34.359
<v Speaker 5>is is that every single, every single ransomware attack, the

0:27:34.400 --> 0:27:39.159
<v Speaker 5>attackers demand payment in cryptocurrency, right, And so I started

0:27:39.160 --> 0:27:41.000
<v Speaker 5>and you know, this actually hit home for me because

0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.679
<v Speaker 5>my wife and I had been on vacation when the

0:27:43.960 --> 0:27:47.919
<v Speaker 5>when the hack occurred. We came back and we couldn't

0:27:47.960 --> 0:27:51.359
<v Speaker 5>get an uber or a lyft from the airport home

0:27:51.840 --> 0:27:54.080
<v Speaker 5>because they couldn't get gas, so no one was driving,

0:27:54.760 --> 0:27:56.800
<v Speaker 5>so we were essentially straight at the airport. And then

0:27:56.840 --> 0:27:58.440
<v Speaker 5>I will, you know, so then you know, my brain

0:27:58.520 --> 0:28:01.199
<v Speaker 5>just started chirting, and then I just, you know, I

0:28:01.640 --> 0:28:03.240
<v Speaker 5>and at that point, obviously I've been you know, thinking

0:28:03.240 --> 0:28:06.080
<v Speaker 5>about you know, these issues and crypto for a few years,

0:28:06.080 --> 0:28:08.600
<v Speaker 5>and I just kind of came to the realization that,

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:11.640
<v Speaker 5>you know, this is doing more harm to our society

0:28:12.320 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 5>than good. And frankly, it's kind of hard to see

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:19.520
<v Speaker 5>what good has you know, matriculated at this point because

0:28:19.720 --> 0:28:21.840
<v Speaker 5>you know, again going back to two thousand and eight, right,

0:28:22.840 --> 0:28:27.640
<v Speaker 5>you know, this technology is not new, right, I mean,

0:28:27.680 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 5>this is sixteen years at this point, and technology tends

0:28:32.800 --> 0:28:34.359
<v Speaker 5>to prove itself pretty quickly.

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:28:34.640 --> 0:28:38.000
<v Speaker 5>So, by way of comparison, the iPhone was two thousand

0:28:38.040 --> 0:28:40.520
<v Speaker 5>and seven, I think anyone who sort of held an

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:42.480
<v Speaker 5>iPhone or a smartphone in their hand for the first

0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:46.920
<v Speaker 5>time fundamentally understood that this was a transformative technology. Right.

0:28:47.720 --> 0:28:50.720
<v Speaker 5>But here we are sixteen years later and we still

0:28:50.720 --> 0:28:54.719
<v Speaker 5>haven't seen crypto or blockchains killer use case. So you

0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:56.840
<v Speaker 5>just kind of have to ask yourself, if it hasn't

0:28:56.880 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 5>happened yet, when will it happen. But in the meantime,

0:29:00.560 --> 0:29:04.000
<v Speaker 5>we've seen all sorts of frauds that you've mentioned in

0:29:04.040 --> 0:29:06.600
<v Speaker 5>your intro there. You know, we've seen the rise of

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:10.800
<v Speaker 5>ransomware attacks, We've seen crypto being used to fund terrorism

0:29:11.360 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 5>and bypass US sanctions, right, And so I could go on,

0:29:15.360 --> 0:29:18.120
<v Speaker 5>I mean there's there's more. There's you know, scammed involving

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:21.960
<v Speaker 5>you know, pig butchering, right, you know, romance scams that

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:24.520
<v Speaker 5>that rely on on cryptos. So I think if you

0:29:24.560 --> 0:29:28.680
<v Speaker 5>just took a step back from an objective perspective, it's

0:29:28.720 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 5>pretty clear to me that the harms vastly outweigh the benefits.

0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:36.720
<v Speaker 5>And then I think, you know, the challenge then is

0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:39.480
<v Speaker 5>coming across back to the East Coast and DC is well,

0:29:39.480 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 5>what do you do about it from a regulatary standpoint?

0:29:41.800 --> 0:29:45.840
<v Speaker 5>Right And you know, we don't have the most functional

0:29:45.840 --> 0:29:48.600
<v Speaker 5>Congress right now, that's putting it mildly. You know, we're

0:29:48.600 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 5>heading into an election season now, cryptos sort of not

0:29:52.480 --> 0:29:56.960
<v Speaker 5>top priority for most politicians right now. So you know,

0:29:57.000 --> 0:29:59.120
<v Speaker 5>I think the status quo from a regulatory standpoint is

0:29:59.160 --> 0:30:02.560
<v Speaker 5>going to prevail. And you know, I think we can

0:30:02.680 --> 0:30:06.560
<v Speaker 5>continue to see you know, average folks get harmed by

0:30:06.560 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 5>crypto just as they have been for the past, you know,

0:30:08.880 --> 0:30:09.800
<v Speaker 5>sixteen years.

0:30:10.240 --> 0:30:15.000
<v Speaker 1>What's the calculation that says that computers crunching those numbers

0:30:15.040 --> 0:30:19.680
<v Speaker 1>down to infinitesimal degrees creates a value.

0:30:19.640 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 5>Well, you know, values in the eye of the beholder, Cynthia, Right, yeah,

0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:26.080
<v Speaker 5>you know, and you've you've touched on a few important things.

0:30:26.120 --> 0:30:28.560
<v Speaker 5>I think one is just you know, kind of bitcoin mining,

0:30:28.600 --> 0:30:30.720
<v Speaker 5>and maybe it's worth just explaining for folks kind of

0:30:30.720 --> 0:30:32.440
<v Speaker 5>what's happening there, what's going.

0:30:32.280 --> 0:30:34.400
<v Speaker 4>On, because including your host here.

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 5>That's that's right, you know, and I'm not going to

0:30:38.240 --> 0:30:39.960
<v Speaker 5>disagree that it's wasteful. I mean, at the end of

0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:43.320
<v Speaker 5>the day, you know, you have, as you mentioned, you know,

0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:45.800
<v Speaker 5>millions of computers at this point in time, and when

0:30:45.800 --> 0:30:48.720
<v Speaker 5>you think of, you know, a bitcoin mining facility, just

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:51.880
<v Speaker 5>picturing your head like, uh, you know, an AWS server

0:30:52.040 --> 0:30:54.560
<v Speaker 5>farm or a Google data center or something like that, right,

0:30:54.600 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 5>I mean, that's what we're talking about at this point.

0:30:56.880 --> 0:30:58.560
<v Speaker 4>Top of computing power.

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:00.840
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, lots and lots of computing. And it's evolved over

0:31:00.880 --> 0:31:03.600
<v Speaker 5>time obviously, is Bitcoin has become more popular and the

0:31:03.640 --> 0:31:06.400
<v Speaker 5>price has risen. You know, that has incentivized you know,

0:31:06.720 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 5>larger and more sophisticated players. I mean in the early days,

0:31:09.320 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 5>you know, you could run you know, a mining node

0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:16.360
<v Speaker 5>on your laptop, right, but those days are long gone.

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:20.440
<v Speaker 5>So you know the by design, right, So what is

0:31:20.600 --> 0:31:24.360
<v Speaker 5>so bitcoin runs on the blockchain, right, that's the underlying technology,

0:31:24.680 --> 0:31:29.680
<v Speaker 5>right that underpins bitcoin, and a blockchain is just a database,

0:31:29.720 --> 0:31:34.280
<v Speaker 5>but it's a distributed database where everyone who runs that

0:31:34.520 --> 0:31:38.720
<v Speaker 5>you know, blockchain software has the exact same copy of

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:42.320
<v Speaker 5>the ledger, and they all agree on the contents of

0:31:42.320 --> 0:31:45.520
<v Speaker 5>that ledger and the latest batch of transactions that should

0:31:45.520 --> 0:31:47.640
<v Speaker 5>be added to that ledger. But they don't know one another.

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 5>So how do you get all these people to agree

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:55.320
<v Speaker 5>on the canonical truth when they don't know nor do

0:31:55.400 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 5>they have any reason to trust one another. And that's

0:31:58.960 --> 0:32:01.800
<v Speaker 5>what mining is all about. Mining is just all about

0:32:02.480 --> 0:32:06.520
<v Speaker 5>updating the ledger with the most recent batch or block

0:32:07.400 --> 0:32:12.080
<v Speaker 5>of transactions. And so how does that happen, Well, it

0:32:12.200 --> 0:32:18.240
<v Speaker 5>happens by essentially guessing or solving a very computationally intensive

0:32:18.560 --> 0:32:23.360
<v Speaker 5>math problem. And if you're able to do that, and

0:32:23.440 --> 0:32:26.120
<v Speaker 5>so to guess correctly just requires a tremendous amount of

0:32:26.160 --> 0:32:31.080
<v Speaker 5>computing power, right, which takes energy. Okay, if you're able

0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:35.920
<v Speaker 5>to do that, then that miner wins the right in

0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:39.880
<v Speaker 5>essence to post the most recent batch of transactions to

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:43.320
<v Speaker 5>the blockchain. It broadcasts that to the entire network, and

0:32:43.360 --> 0:32:47.120
<v Speaker 5>everyone agrees because everyone can see that this minor incurred

0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 5>the cost right that they solve this puzzle. So the

0:32:50.360 --> 0:32:54.240
<v Speaker 5>puzzle is basically just a cost okay that's imposed on

0:32:54.320 --> 0:32:57.040
<v Speaker 5>mine because if you didn't have a cost, then any

0:32:57.080 --> 0:32:59.560
<v Speaker 5>bad actor could just hijack this network if they had

0:32:59.640 --> 0:33:02.960
<v Speaker 5>enough futing power. Right, So you need to have a

0:33:03.120 --> 0:33:08.360
<v Speaker 5>cost in order to incentivize you know, ethical behavior. But

0:33:08.400 --> 0:33:09.840
<v Speaker 5>of course no one's going to do it if all

0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:11.600
<v Speaker 5>there is is a cost. So they need a reward

0:33:11.640 --> 0:33:14.200
<v Speaker 5>as well. So there's a block reward, So if you're

0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:17.480
<v Speaker 5>successful in solving this puzzle, then you get a certain

0:33:17.520 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 5>amount of new bitcoin. And actually that amount that block

0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:24.720
<v Speaker 5>reward has every couple of years, and in fact we're

0:33:24.760 --> 0:33:28.600
<v Speaker 5>approaching the next having. And there's also things like transaction fee.

0:33:28.680 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 5>So if I wanted to send you a bitcoin, you know,

0:33:30.880 --> 0:33:33.600
<v Speaker 5>I could add a transaction fee that would go to

0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:36.720
<v Speaker 5>the minor in that transaction. That would sort of incentivize

0:33:36.720 --> 0:33:39.360
<v Speaker 5>the minor to include, you know, my transaction in the

0:33:39.360 --> 0:33:42.680
<v Speaker 5>most recent block. So that's what mining is really all about.

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:46.120
<v Speaker 5>It's about imposing a cost and then having a reward, right,

0:33:46.600 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 5>And there's different ways. There's less energy intensive ways. So

0:33:48.960 --> 0:33:51.800
<v Speaker 5>the second most pipular cryptocurrency, Ethereum, a few years ago,

0:33:51.880 --> 0:33:57.479
<v Speaker 5>switched from the very energy intensive proof of work mining process,

0:33:57.480 --> 0:33:59.440
<v Speaker 5>which is what bitcoin us, right, the work being you

0:33:59.480 --> 0:34:03.560
<v Speaker 5>solve that that puzzled to proof of steak, where in essence,

0:34:04.160 --> 0:34:07.440
<v Speaker 5>you have to kind of risk a certain amount of ether,

0:34:07.640 --> 0:34:11.080
<v Speaker 5>which is the native cryptocurrency for ethereum, and sort of

0:34:11.080 --> 0:34:13.440
<v Speaker 5>the more you risk, or the more you stake, the

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:17.040
<v Speaker 5>more likely you are to be able to update that blockchain.

0:34:17.520 --> 0:34:21.399
<v Speaker 5>So that's the mining. But again to your question, how

0:34:21.400 --> 0:34:23.759
<v Speaker 5>does that translate into actual value? And this is to

0:34:23.840 --> 0:34:27.760
<v Speaker 5>me a conundrum that has yet to be satisfactorily answered

0:34:27.800 --> 0:34:32.640
<v Speaker 5>by anyone. That's sort of pro crypto, right, which is

0:34:32.680 --> 0:34:36.640
<v Speaker 5>like again valuation, Okay, so what is it? I mean,

0:34:36.840 --> 0:34:41.399
<v Speaker 5>stocks and bonds, traditional financial instruments have sort of established

0:34:41.640 --> 0:34:44.960
<v Speaker 5>valuation methodologies, right, You look at the current market price

0:34:45.600 --> 0:34:48.239
<v Speaker 5>and then use an investor make it determination is it

0:34:48.280 --> 0:34:52.320
<v Speaker 5>overvalued or undervalued? Now, again, there are models and methods

0:34:52.640 --> 0:34:57.640
<v Speaker 5>that help you make that determination, notably discounted cash flow analysis,

0:34:57.880 --> 0:35:00.239
<v Speaker 5>right and not to get too wonky and financi on

0:35:00.280 --> 0:35:04.960
<v Speaker 5>an entertainment podcast, right, but you know companies generate cash flows, right,

0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:07.440
<v Speaker 5>and they will generate them in the future, and then

0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:09.799
<v Speaker 5>an investor can sort of discount that future stream of

0:35:09.800 --> 0:35:12.800
<v Speaker 5>cash flows to a value today. Right. Well, of course,

0:35:12.800 --> 0:35:17.760
<v Speaker 5>with crypto, there's no cash flows, right, there's nothing to discount. Okay,

0:35:17.760 --> 0:35:20.520
<v Speaker 5>So maybe we can think of crypto from a valuation

0:35:20.680 --> 0:35:23.799
<v Speaker 5>standpoint as akin to other types of currencies, right, like

0:35:23.800 --> 0:35:26.440
<v Speaker 5>the dollar or the euro. How are they valua, Well,

0:35:26.440 --> 0:35:29.120
<v Speaker 5>they're valued relative to one another. Right, There's a dollar

0:35:29.160 --> 0:35:31.719
<v Speaker 5>euro exchange rate, you know, a dollar yea in exchange rate,

0:35:32.120 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 5>and those exchange rates are going to be based off

0:35:34.040 --> 0:35:37.120
<v Speaker 5>a number of different you know, factors like GDP growth

0:35:37.120 --> 0:35:40.040
<v Speaker 5>in the two countries, inflation rates in the two countries,

0:35:40.120 --> 0:35:42.839
<v Speaker 5>interest rates in the two countries. Again, concepts that do

0:35:42.920 --> 0:35:49.080
<v Speaker 5>not apply in the cryptocurrency context. So where does that

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:52.440
<v Speaker 5>leave you? I mean to me, it's an asset that

0:35:52.480 --> 0:35:57.080
<v Speaker 5>from the beginning has traded entirely on sentiment, right, And

0:35:57.120 --> 0:35:59.480
<v Speaker 5>you see this clearly when you know, a few years

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:02.440
<v Speaker 5>ago Elon Musk would you know, send out a tweet

0:36:02.480 --> 0:36:04.640
<v Speaker 5>about doage coin and the price that dotagecoin would jump,

0:36:04.680 --> 0:36:06.800
<v Speaker 5>or he'd say something bad about dotagecoin or bitcoin and

0:36:06.840 --> 0:36:09.520
<v Speaker 5>the price would go down. Right, It's an acid that

0:36:09.600 --> 0:36:16.560
<v Speaker 5>trades entirely on sentiment and narrative, and that narrative has

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:22.080
<v Speaker 5>evolved over time. So for the longest time, the narrative

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:27.279
<v Speaker 5>was that Bitcoin, in particular was digital gold because per

0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:31.040
<v Speaker 5>the code Bitcoin source code, there's only going to be

0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:34.520
<v Speaker 5>twenty one million bitcoins ever created, right, that can't change, right,

0:36:34.560 --> 0:36:36.520
<v Speaker 5>that's in the code. And so there's a fixed apply,

0:36:36.719 --> 0:36:39.680
<v Speaker 5>just like there's a fixed supply of gold. And just

0:36:39.760 --> 0:36:44.400
<v Speaker 5>like gold is a hedge against inflation, and you know,

0:36:44.520 --> 0:36:49.919
<v Speaker 5>the market the sign markets, so too could is bitcoin? Right, Well,

0:36:49.960 --> 0:36:53.880
<v Speaker 5>that narrative was shattered back, you know, beginning in the

0:36:53.920 --> 0:36:58.279
<v Speaker 5>fall of twenty twenty one, when inflation started to go up, right,

0:36:58.320 --> 0:37:00.400
<v Speaker 5>and we've all lived through the horrible flare of the

0:37:00.400 --> 0:37:05.440
<v Speaker 5>past couple of years, and bitcoin and crypto prices, you know, tanked. Okay,

0:37:05.520 --> 0:37:09.080
<v Speaker 5>so it's obviously not an inflation hedge when inflation's going

0:37:09.160 --> 0:37:12.360
<v Speaker 5>up and bitcoin's going down. I just haven't seen anything

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:16.200
<v Speaker 5>with rigor that would suggest, you know, you can say, okay,

0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:19.000
<v Speaker 5>crypto or bitcoin at fifty thousand dollars is over valued

0:37:19.080 --> 0:37:22.200
<v Speaker 5>or undervalue. It's just entirely subjective and you know, based

0:37:22.239 --> 0:37:23.160
<v Speaker 5>on sentiment.

0:37:23.239 --> 0:37:26.920
<v Speaker 1>How liquid is it like if you I mean, obviously

0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:29.759
<v Speaker 1>in the throes of a crisis, anything, you know, any bank,

0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:32.000
<v Speaker 1>any security is going to have problems. But just on

0:37:32.040 --> 0:37:36.080
<v Speaker 1>a typical typical Tuesday, is it? You know?

0:37:36.200 --> 0:37:38.120
<v Speaker 4>Are you? And forget again?

0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Forgive I'm betraying my ignorance here, but I appreciate you

0:37:41.120 --> 0:37:43.759
<v Speaker 1>teaching me on the air here on any given day,

0:37:43.760 --> 0:37:46.600
<v Speaker 1>if you wanted to sell ten or one hundred is

0:37:46.600 --> 0:37:49.279
<v Speaker 1>it a like you know, if anybody wanted to sell

0:37:49.280 --> 0:37:51.400
<v Speaker 1>ten shares of Disney stock or one hundred shares of

0:37:51.440 --> 0:37:54.080
<v Speaker 1>Disney stock, you could do that in a split second

0:37:54.560 --> 0:37:57.680
<v Speaker 1>online and be you know, if you depending on what

0:37:57.920 --> 0:38:00.200
<v Speaker 1>time and where you bet, you would you know what

0:38:00.239 --> 0:38:02.399
<v Speaker 1>you were going to get, and you can you could

0:38:02.440 --> 0:38:03.479
<v Speaker 1>make the decision am.

0:38:03.400 --> 0:38:05.960
<v Speaker 4>I going to hold it a couple more weeks? Months, years?

0:38:06.320 --> 0:38:08.520
<v Speaker 4>Kind of thing? How do you do that? With crypto?

0:38:08.920 --> 0:38:12.440
<v Speaker 5>It's not very liquid, you know? And of course you know,

0:38:12.560 --> 0:38:15.120
<v Speaker 5>just like stocks, you know, there's gonna be some cryptocurrencies

0:38:15.160 --> 0:38:17.040
<v Speaker 5>that are more liquid than others, right, so you know

0:38:17.120 --> 0:38:20.759
<v Speaker 5>Bitcoin is going to be like the most liquid, but

0:38:20.800 --> 0:38:22.799
<v Speaker 5>it's still not very liquid, right, I mean, and we've

0:38:22.840 --> 0:38:27.160
<v Speaker 5>seen numerous instances where you know, there's been a large

0:38:27.200 --> 0:38:30.719
<v Speaker 5>trade that's moved the price, you know, one way or

0:38:30.960 --> 0:38:34.359
<v Speaker 5>the other. Uh. And of course it doesn't help in

0:38:34.360 --> 0:38:37.799
<v Speaker 5>this context that you know, the blockchain is sort of

0:38:37.800 --> 0:38:40.440
<v Speaker 5>fully transparent, right that you can, you know, everyone can

0:38:40.520 --> 0:38:45.320
<v Speaker 5>see every single transaction that's ever occurred on the bitcoin blockchain,

0:38:46.719 --> 0:38:48.399
<v Speaker 5>you know, which means that people can kind of pick

0:38:48.480 --> 0:38:51.560
<v Speaker 5>up quickly if they're selling pressure or on the you know,

0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:54.799
<v Speaker 5>or buying pressure. Although you know, even with that has

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:58.200
<v Speaker 5>to be caveatic because you know, most trades in crypto

0:38:58.360 --> 0:39:02.799
<v Speaker 5>are done via centralizing changes, right allah ft X, and

0:39:02.920 --> 0:39:07.360
<v Speaker 5>those they dearly departed, right, Yeah, they finally decided that

0:39:07.400 --> 0:39:08.759
<v Speaker 5>they weren't going to bring you know, they weren't going

0:39:08.800 --> 0:39:11.560
<v Speaker 5>to revive FTX two point zero. So it's it's now

0:39:11.600 --> 0:39:13.560
<v Speaker 5>a it's now a liquidation.

0:39:13.680 --> 0:39:13.880
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:39:14.040 --> 0:39:16.520
<v Speaker 5>So those trades, like you know, so the average person

0:39:16.560 --> 0:39:19.120
<v Speaker 5>you're buying and selling you know, bitcoin, they're doing it

0:39:19.120 --> 0:39:22.759
<v Speaker 5>through a centralized exchange, right. Obviously not FTX anymore, you know.

0:39:22.880 --> 0:39:24.759
<v Speaker 5>But let's just say Coinbase, right, they're the biggest in

0:39:24.800 --> 0:39:27.759
<v Speaker 5>the in the US. Uh. Well, when you trade via

0:39:27.800 --> 0:39:31.600
<v Speaker 5>coin Base, there's never actually a transaction that occurs on

0:39:31.640 --> 0:39:36.000
<v Speaker 5>the blockchain, right Uh. Instead, what's happening is that Coinbase

0:39:36.120 --> 0:39:38.880
<v Speaker 5>has a database, just like every financial like regulator, financial

0:39:38.920 --> 0:39:43.080
<v Speaker 5>institution has a database that tracks debits and credits, right that. Okay,

0:39:43.160 --> 0:39:47.799
<v Speaker 5>you know Lee has you know, x bitcoin. You know,

0:39:47.880 --> 0:39:51.040
<v Speaker 5>Cynthia has you know, y amount of bitcoin. Let's say

0:39:51.080 --> 0:39:54.000
<v Speaker 5>I buy, you sell, and they're just going to reflect

0:39:54.000 --> 0:39:57.600
<v Speaker 5>that on their own internal database. Right, that's how the

0:39:57.640 --> 0:40:02.240
<v Speaker 5>transaction occurs. Now, there should be you know, coinbase should

0:40:02.280 --> 0:40:07.360
<v Speaker 5>have a blockchain address with sufficient amount of bitcoin held

0:40:07.360 --> 0:40:10.480
<v Speaker 5>at that address to cover all of the bitcoin that

0:40:10.520 --> 0:40:15.759
<v Speaker 5>their customer, that their internal database say belongs to their customer. Right,

0:40:15.800 --> 0:40:20.719
<v Speaker 5>But our transaction never actually occurs on the bitcoin blockchain,

0:40:20.760 --> 0:40:23.839
<v Speaker 5>and so you know, so there's just limited liquidity at

0:40:23.880 --> 0:40:27.080
<v Speaker 5>even you know, in exchange like coinbase, So if you

0:40:27.120 --> 0:40:30.160
<v Speaker 5>wanted to get rid of a large position, it's going

0:40:30.200 --> 0:40:32.120
<v Speaker 5>to be very hard to do that. It's one of

0:40:32.160 --> 0:40:36.440
<v Speaker 5>the great ironies of crypto, and there are several, you know,

0:40:36.480 --> 0:40:41.040
<v Speaker 5>but for a technology premise on you know, disintermediation and

0:40:41.160 --> 0:40:43.880
<v Speaker 5>peer to peer payments, when you look at the industry,

0:40:44.520 --> 0:40:49.719
<v Speaker 5>it is littered with intermediaries. Right. That's again how most

0:40:49.800 --> 0:40:56.160
<v Speaker 5>people access crypto is through centralized intermediaries. But these intermediaries,

0:40:56.360 --> 0:41:00.880
<v Speaker 5>unlike banks and you know, stock exchange is and you know,

0:41:00.960 --> 0:41:04.480
<v Speaker 5>retail brokerages, they're not regulated again as many people have

0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:05.479
<v Speaker 5>found out the hard way.

0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:11.800
<v Speaker 1>Well, I hope you found those perspectives enlightening. In truth,

0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:14.840
<v Speaker 1>I think the answer to my fundamental question about blockchain

0:41:14.840 --> 0:41:18.160
<v Speaker 1>in Hollywood is not yet, but it's always good to

0:41:18.200 --> 0:41:21.200
<v Speaker 1>ask a lot of questions. Thank you for listening. Be

0:41:21.320 --> 0:41:23.840
<v Speaker 1>sure to leave us a review at Apple Podcasts or

0:41:23.880 --> 0:41:27.799
<v Speaker 1>Amazon Music. We love to hear from listeners. Please go

0:41:27.840 --> 0:41:30.080
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0:41:30.480 --> 0:41:34.440
<v Speaker 1>weekly Strictly Business newsletter, and don't forget to tune in

0:41:34.480 --> 0:41:37.960
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