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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'm Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros, here to give you my favorite player

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Speaker 1: props for the NFL Conference championship games. And this is

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Speaker 1: our last multi game slate of the football season, so

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Speaker 1: we need to make the most of it. So let's

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Speaker 1: dive right in, and just a reminder, all odds are

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Speaker 1: courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: Brock Purdy under two hundred and nineteen point five passing yards.

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Speaker 1: He's going up against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that is

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Speaker 1: downright vicious against the pass, and it starts with a

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Speaker 1: fearsome pass rush. The Eagles had seventy sacks during the

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Speaker 1: regular season. That is the most by any team during

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Speaker 1: the regular season since the Chicago Bears in nineteen eighty four,

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Speaker 1: who had seventy two. Hassan Reddick, Javon Hargreave, Josh Sweat,

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Speaker 1: and Brandon Graham all had double digit sacks for Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: this year, and the Eagles also have the terrific cornerback

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Speaker 1: due of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, so this is

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Speaker 1: a fantastic pass defense. The Eagles gave up only two

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Speaker 1: hundred and seven passing yards per game during the regular season,

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Speaker 1: they allowed a league low five point five yards per

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Speaker 1: pass attempt, and they held Daniel Jones to just one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five passing yards last week in the

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Speaker 1: Divisional round. The Eagles run defense is not as effective.

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia ranked twenty first in DVOA against the run this year,

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Speaker 1: so expect the forty nine ers to deploy a run

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Speaker 1: heavy game plan against Philadelphia this week. The forty nine

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Speaker 1: Ers have been pretty judicious about not over exposing rock

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Speaker 1: perty So as a result, in his seven starts this year,

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Speaker 1: he has averaged twenty six point one pass attempts per game.

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Speaker 1: He threw twenty nine times against the Cowboys last week

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Speaker 1: and finished with two hundred and fourteen passing yards. Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: has gotten even better pass d defense than the Cowboys do,

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Speaker 1: so I expect Perdy to come up short of two

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Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen point five yards Joe Burrow under two

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy nine point five passing yards. So. Burrow

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Speaker 1: has faced the Chiefs three times in the last two seasons.

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Speaker 1: His yardage totals in those three games four hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty six yards. Two hundred and fifty yards and two

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighty six yards. So why do I expect

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Speaker 1: Burrow to finish under two hundred and seventy nine point

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Speaker 1: five when he's had some success against the Chiefs recently, well,

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Speaker 1: Burrow has thrown for two hundred and forty two or

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Speaker 1: fewer yards in three consecutive games and five of the

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Speaker 1: last six. He's averaged just six point three yards per

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Speaker 1: pass attempt over his last six games. And the Bengals

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Speaker 1: have three their starting offensive linemen hurt, right guard Alex

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Speaker 1: Kappa and tackles Jonah Williams and Lael Collins. Colin is

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Speaker 1: out for the season with the torn acl and it's

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Speaker 1: pretty unlikely that we're going to see either Joonah Williams

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Speaker 1: or Alex Kappa this weekend. Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap

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Speaker 1: and Kapa has what's believed to be a high ankle sprain,

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Speaker 1: so pretty unlikely either one plays in the AFC Championship game. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Bengals offense did not miss a beat last week

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Speaker 1: against the Bills. They were pretty terrific in that game

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Speaker 1: and actually kind of shoved around the Bills defensive front

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Speaker 1: seven in that game, but Cincinnati's got a tougher opponent

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Speaker 1: this week. As far as pass rush goes, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: had fifty five sacks, second only to the Eagles, and

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Speaker 1: had a pressure rate of twenty four point nine percent,

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Speaker 1: fifth highest in the league. This is a good pass

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Speaker 1: rush and an offensive line that's missing three starters. I

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Speaker 1: think could have a hard time keeping this pass rush

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Speaker 1: at Bay. Therefore, I expect the Bengals to try to

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Speaker 1: mix run and pass. I don't think Burrow is going

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Speaker 1: to have a ton of pass attempts unless the Bengals

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Speaker 1: fall behind, so and I also don't expect Burrow to

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Speaker 1: have the time to find Jamar Chase and t Higgins

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Speaker 1: on deeper routes downfield. So yeah, I'm Last week against

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Speaker 1: the Bills, Burrow had two hundred and forty two passing yards,

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Speaker 1: and I think we see impost a similar sort of

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Speaker 1: number this week. I like him under two hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy nine point five passing yards. I'll get to the

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Speaker 1: rest of my favorite player props for the conference championship

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Speaker 1: games in just a moment, but first, whether you're looking

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Speaker 1: for access to exclusive picks, top rated player props, or

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Speaker 1: custom analysis of your own betting performances. Betting Pros Premium

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Speaker 1: has the tools to help you cash more bets, plain

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Speaker 1: and simple. Sign up today at bettingpros dot com, slash

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Speaker 1: upgrade and start betting smarter, not harder. All right, back

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Speaker 1: to the player props, and let's go to Miles Sanders

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Speaker 1: under sixty one point five rushing plus receiving yards. So

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Speaker 1: I prefer to play Sanders rushing plus receiving yards total

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Speaker 1: rather than just his rushing total. It sets the bar

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Speaker 1: about ten yards higher. And really, Sanders is kind of

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Speaker 1: a complete zero in the passing game, to be quite honest.

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Speaker 1: So Sanders has falling short of this number in six

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Speaker 1: of his last ten games, and during that stretch he

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Speaker 1: has drawn only thirteen targets and has caught nine passes

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Speaker 1: for thirty six yards. So that's three point six receiving

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Speaker 1: yards the game over that stretch, with the extra ten

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Speaker 1: yards you're getting on the rushing yardage plus receiving yardage total,

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Speaker 1: I think the value is here and not with solely

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Speaker 1: rushing yardage. So Sanders is going to be doing the

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Speaker 1: vast majority of his work on the ground, and he's

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Speaker 1: going to be facing a very good forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: run defense. San Francisco ranked second in DVOA against the

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Speaker 1: run during the regular season, behind only the Titans, and

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Speaker 1: give up just fifty nine point six rushing yards per

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Speaker 1: game to opposing running backs. Sanders shares the Philadelphia backfield

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Speaker 1: with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, so he doesn't even

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Speaker 1: have the backfield all to himself. He has not played

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Speaker 1: more than fifty four percent of the Eagles offensive snaps

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Speaker 1: in eight of the last nine games, so only in

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Speaker 1: one of the last nine as he played more than

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Speaker 1: fifty four percent. It's going to be hard for Sanders

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Speaker 1: to reach this number, I think, with a potentially limited

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Speaker 1: number of touches against an excellent run defense. Miles Sanders

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Speaker 1: under sixty one point five rushing plus receiving yards all right,

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Speaker 1: Joe Mixon over fifty eight point five rushing yards. This

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Speaker 1: is kind of correlated with the under on Joe Burrow's

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Speaker 1: passing yardage as mentioned earlier. I think the Bengals will

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Speaker 1: endeavor to balance run and pass to try to neutralize

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City pass rush. Cincinnati's injury riddled offensive line

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Speaker 1: will probably find it easier to open holes against the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs run defense that ranks fifteenth in DVA rather than

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Speaker 1: neutralize a Chiefs pass rush. The ranks second in sacks

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Speaker 1: and fifth in pressure rates. So Mixon has cleared this

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Speaker 1: number in three of his last six games, and last

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Speaker 1: week he ran twenty times for one hundred and five

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Speaker 1: yards in the win over the Bills. He's had double

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Speaker 1: digit carries in six straight games. I like Joe Mixon

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Speaker 1: over fifty eight point five rushing yards DeVonta Smith over

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Speaker 1: sixty five point five receiving yards. Smith has cleared this

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Speaker 1: number in five of his last seven games, and he's

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Speaker 1: top the one hundred yard mark in four of those games.

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Speaker 1: He has seen eight or more targets in each of

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Speaker 1: his last ten games, and he's had five or more

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Speaker 1: receptions in each of his last seven games, so he

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Speaker 1: has become kind of a high volume guy for the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: As noted earlier, the San Francisco run defense is outstanding,

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Speaker 1: so I do think the Eagles are going to have

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Speaker 1: to throw the ball on Sunday when they host San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: Forty nine Ers gave up the sixth most receiving yards

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Speaker 1: to wide receivers during the regular season. DeVonta Smith over

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Speaker 1: sixty five point five receiving yards. And finally, Noah Gray,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs other tight end, over twelve point five receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: No Gray has failed to clear this number twelve and

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Speaker 1: a half only twice in his last eleven games, and

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Speaker 1: in one of those games he fell short by a

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Speaker 1: half yard. So Gray has averaged one point nine receptions

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Speaker 1: and twenty two point five yards per game over the

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Speaker 1: last eleven and he has played more than half of

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs offensive snaps in each of their last nine games.

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Speaker 1: Last week, he played thirty seven snaps against the Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: He's heavily involved. Gray is going to be facing a

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Speaker 1: Bengals defense that allowed the ninth most receiving yards to

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Speaker 1: tight ends during the regular season. I really like no

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Speaker 1: Grade to go over twelve point five receiving yards. So

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Speaker 1: let's recap this week's action. We are going to go

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Speaker 1: with Rock Purty under two hundred and nineteen point five

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Speaker 1: passing yards, Joe burrow on under two hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: nine point five passing yards, Miles Sanders under sixty one

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Speaker 1: point five rushing plus receiving yards, Joe Mixon over fifty

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Speaker 1: eight point five rushing yards DeVonta Smith over sixty five

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Speaker 1: point five receiving yards and Noah Gray over twelve point

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Speaker 1: five receiving yards. That's going to do it for this week.

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Speaker 1: I wish you the best of luck with your wagers

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Speaker 1: in NFL Championship Sunday. Good luck to you, and we'll

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Speaker 1: talk to you before the Super Bowl. So long everyone,