1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Of course, here in 7 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: the US, we have the SMP year to date off 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: more than and asked that close to thirty percent. When 9 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: you go over to the UK, it's not nearly as bad. 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: The foot seat down around nine percent from it's high 11 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: of the year. Uh so just some you know, a 12 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: little bit better performance. But it's been a crazy, i 13 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: don't know week or ten days or over the UK. 14 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: Let's get the latest what's going on in the UK 15 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: and new euro markets. We do that with Tim Craighead. 16 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: He's a director of Research and senior European strategist for 17 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based in London. Tim, crazy time for 18 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: the UK market and just the I'm talking to stock market, 19 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: the currency market, the bond market in the last ten day. 20 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: Because you're only down from a pounds but at the 21 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: beginning of your a pound was a dollar thirty five, 22 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: right now it's a dollar twelve. The currency issue is 23 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: always an interesting when year to date, I'll make it 24 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: even sound better, year to date that puts he's down 25 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 1: about five and a half percent, but again in local currency. 26 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: Um so, look, it has been crazy. Actually used that 27 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: word earlier this morning and something I was writing, and um, 28 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: you know, part of this is what's going on with politics, 29 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: with a new Prime minister putting forward some policies that 30 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: clearly have calls disturb Part of this is um folding 31 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: through into the bond markets, where we've had a Catharsis 32 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: of sorts because of some you know, I won't go 33 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: into the detail, but this thing called liability driven investments, 34 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: which is how pension plans across the UK have been 35 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 1: trying to deal with the low interest rate environment, has 36 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: caused sort of havoc um at all sorts of issues, 37 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: like even the Bank of England, while it wants to 38 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 1: tighten policy, it's had to be buying bonds to make 39 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: sure that the market was functioning appropriately. All sorts of 40 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: craziness and in the end, um, you know, we end 41 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: up with the UK trading at about the foot see 42 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: trading at about eight point seven times forward earnings, which 43 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 1: is pretty freaking nice from the standpoint evaluation. The question 44 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: is where do we go from here? And we're looking 45 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: right in the teeth of of the third quarter earnings, 46 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: and I think that's the that's the key for the 47 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: overall European market right now. We haven't seen negative revisions. 48 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 1: We think their heads are still spinning from what's happened 49 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: over the past couple of weeks, right, but um, well, 50 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: you know the thing, Matt, I think this is like 51 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: super interesting. You know, there's always a question of consensus 52 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: numbers and you know, are they Is that really what 53 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: investors are thinking? The third quarter maybe the period where 54 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: we see negative revisions, but stocks bounced because the market 55 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,959 Speaker 1: is already there. Um and if that's the case, along 56 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: with some technical indicators that show a washout, maybe that's 57 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: in a good indication. But I think you gotta watch 58 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: how stocks trade on bad news. Shell today was off 59 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: on bad news. That's not a good indication. So in 60 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: the UK and across Europe, I mean, is the expectation 61 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: that a recession is going to be longer, deeper, perhaps 62 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: than maybe the market's discounting or what's the market discounting? 63 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: Do you think? Yeah, so, our our work is suggesting 64 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: that the market right now is discounting a low single 65 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: digit decline in earnings for two thousand twenty three. If 66 00:03:55,040 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 1: we end up having excuse me, plus cut in two 67 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: thousand twenty three earnings and broadly across Europe at least 68 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: to have some downside, you know. And it's one of 69 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: those things where um did everybody's talking recession um, but 70 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: there's still hope that we sort of skirt through UM. 71 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: And frankly, part of this weather exactly part of this 72 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 1: is going to be the weather. You know, how cold 73 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: is it and how much energy do we have to 74 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: curtail from a business perspective to keep people warm? You know, Man, 75 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: I thought I just pictured Tim Hard at work at 76 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: his desk in Queen Victoria Street. Not the case, niece, France. 77 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: Explain yourself, Tim, what are you doing in these France? 78 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 1: Am I am at? I am at a conference where 79 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 1: tomorrow I will be presenting on some of the longer 80 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: term structural issues that are causing higher for longer inflation 81 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: and what does it mean? So all right, let's front runner. 82 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: Let's front run your talk, what are some of the 83 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: structure reasons. So so our basic premise, and I'm I'll 84 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: give full credit to Gina Martin Adams because a lot 85 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: of this is based off some of the good work 86 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: that she's been doing. But you think about demographics that 87 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: are reducing labor supply all else being equal, You think 88 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: about deglobalization, which is reducing are accelerating the trend of 89 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:25,239 Speaker 1: the cheap import to be in a source of disinflation. 90 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: You know, that's that's yesterday's news. Anything about decarbonization, which 91 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: is not only driving investments that are sucking up basic commodities, 92 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 1: but it's also reducing investment in things like hydrocarbon fuels, 93 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 1: all of which keep energy prices and probably even underlying 94 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 1: metals higher for longer. You take those three and you 95 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: end up with inflation that yes, it may come off 96 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 1: the boil, but we're not going back to pre pandemic levels. 97 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: And if inflation is that way, then bond rates, you know, 98 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: interest rates are going to stay somewhat elevated, and that 99 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: all helps drive increased politility in markets. So it's it's 100 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: you know, it's one of those things where then it 101 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: depends there's still opportunities because you know, markets do price 102 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: some of this stuff in. But clearly, UM, we've been 103 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: through a rough patch and there's still some slopping just 104 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: to come. All I know is that when I'm asked 105 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: to speak at the conference, it's usually in Cleveland in January, 106 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: you know, not Nice France. I seem to think, Paul, 107 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: you you've made the trip from New York to con 108 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: be course, I think I might have done. That might 109 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: be right, he might be right there calling me out. 110 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 1: Tim Craig, head Director Research, Senior European strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, 111 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: reporting live from Nice. I guess okay. Plus, I just 112 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: finished up their first in person get together since March 113 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: of That was in Vienna. That closed up yesterday. A 114 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: lot going on in the global space, so we need 115 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: to check in with Amina Baker, chief OPEC correspondent and 116 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: Dubai Deputy Bureau Chief for Energy Intelligence. I mean, and 117 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: I know you're back in London after spending time in Vienna. 118 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: I'd love to start with just this crazy stories about 119 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: the UM the North Stream leaks caused by detonations, uh 120 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 1: and maybe a sign of of of sabotage. What's the 121 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: latest that you know. Um. Yeah, the latest is that 122 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: there is the Swedish investigation into the pipeline leaks and 123 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: their suspicion is of sabotage. Um. And uh yeah, they 124 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: basically said that they there might have been an incident. 125 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: They're still investigating. We understand that Russia isn't part of 126 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: the team that it's investigating what happened. But um, they 127 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: said that there was also extensive damage calls to these pipelines, 128 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: and there's no clear timeline or budget on how these 129 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: pipelines are going to be repaired, so a lot of 130 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: uncertainty there. So I mean, obviously they're not coordinating with Russia, 131 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: nobody is in the West. But OPEC seems to be right. Um. 132 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: The I just think astounding the cut. Even if they 133 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: don't really cut two million barrels and we're hearing that, um, 134 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: the reality could be could be less than a million. Um, 135 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: it still sends a message to the West. OPEC is 136 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: firmly on the side of China and Russia in this 137 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: sort of new paradigm, this new world order. Could it 138 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: be any clearer? Or am I just seeing this too cynically? Uh, 139 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: it's you're stating the obvious, and you're stating something that 140 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: I think the general public would like to buy into. 141 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: And more and more, I think this war has really 142 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: polarized the East and the West, and taking a neutral 143 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: stance against this war is no longer acceptable. I find that, 144 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: you know, countries are being forced to to take sides, 145 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: and if they don't take sides, UH, their actions are 146 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: are immediately and indicative of which side they're on. And 147 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: that's the case with OPEC plus. I think. I mean 148 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: at the UN General Council, you saw many of the 149 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: Gulf States, actually all of the Gulf States voted UH 150 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: against the war. Everybody wants to see an end to 151 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: this humanitarian crisis. It's it's not fair to to let 152 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: it to go on. UM. With OPEC plus, yes, the 153 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: headline figure is two million bears garls a day cut. 154 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 1: We're probably going to see a cut of a million 155 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: barrels a day a little bit under UH. We'll see 156 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: how that goes. It depends on the countries. UM. It 157 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: does send a bad signal to many of the consumer states. 158 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: You saw the reaction from the US, from the Biden administration, 159 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 1: especially UH saying that it's it's the wrong move. UH. 160 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: And on. The move was criticized. Um, but oil prices 161 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: didn't move that much. They're at dollars. I mean that 162 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: was like a two percent jump, so um. Because there 163 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: is so much uncertainty in the market. I mean, the 164 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: reason they took this step is one, there's an unprecedented 165 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: uncertainty on both the demand and the supply side. We've 166 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: never seen this level of uncertainty before in the past 167 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: three decades or so, so they needed to prepare themselves. 168 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: They needed to free up more spare capacity city in 169 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: anticipation that when the EU sanctions and when the price 170 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: caps come into effect, we are going to see a 171 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 1: disruption and oil supply from Russia. At Energy Intelligence we 172 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: estimate UM oil supply from Russia to be reduced by 173 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 1: a million point to UH one point two sorry million 174 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: barrels a day. Uh And somebody needs to make up 175 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: for that supply. So if they don't cut now and 176 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: free up more spare capacity, they won't be able to 177 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:48,319 Speaker 1: supply the market again. UM. So I would just wait 178 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: and see how open plus reacts when we get a disruption. 179 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: I'm sure some of that supply is going to come back. 180 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: I mean just about thirty seconds how bad is it 181 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: going to be from an energy consumption and availability this 182 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: winter in Europe? Well, Uh, it is. I mean, we 183 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: we've heard that a lot of European countries have have 184 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: stalked up. They seem to be better place and UH 185 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: compared to UH in previous months. They're prepared. But the 186 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: problem is not just this winter, how about the coming 187 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: one UM. Energy crisis is going to continue with us 188 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: for a while. So yeah, alright, good stuff. Amina Baker, 189 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: Baker chief OPEC corresponded and to buy Deputy Bureau Chief 190 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: for Energy Intelligence, giving us kind of the latest coming 191 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: out of the European energy UH situation very difficult with 192 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 1: the war obviously UH in Ukraine and the supply that 193 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: was critical for much of Europe from Russia now dramatically curtailed. 194 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: We had the OPEC plus meeting in Vienna the past 195 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 1: couple of days, and again the headline coming out of 196 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: there is OPEC plus agreeing to cut production by two 197 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: million barrels per day UM and we'll have to see 198 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 1: what that means for this market going forward. We want 199 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: to continue our energy discussion. We started off this half 200 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: hour kind of getting from the European perspective coming out 201 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: of Vienna. On the global stage, Let's take a look 202 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 1: at the U S energy space. We do that with 203 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: Scott Levine, senior energy and industry analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. 204 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: And Scott we've had a little bit of a stabilization 205 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: here in oil prices. Talked to us about the oil stocks. 206 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: You know, I think about some of the oil services 207 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 1: names that you follow, like how Haliburton and Schlumbers A 208 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: those stocks have done great. Is the energy play done 209 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: for investors or is you still more room to go? 210 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: I think there is more room to go, Paul Um. 211 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: The reality here is that while these stocks have had 212 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: a great year, as you mentioned, they've had a lousy 213 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: run for the preceding five years, decade longer than that, right, 214 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 1: like so uh, so, you know, the backdrop here is 215 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: that the industry had been obsessed with growth and UH 216 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: had ignored returns and as result of that had lost 217 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: the confidence of the investment community, and so uh in 218 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: order to get that back, they really need to demonstrate 219 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: UH discipline. And so in a year where you've seen 220 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: oil push a hundred and twenty dollars in the in 221 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:13,679 Speaker 1: March after the invasion of of Ukraine, Uh. Even before that, 222 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: we saw oil prices rise, and investors really wanted to 223 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: make sure that the industry was going to be measured 224 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: in terms of uh, capitalizing that and growing in a 225 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:27,079 Speaker 1: discipline manner. And so we've seen that and uh, and 226 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: I think the companies continue to demonstrate confidence that they 227 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: will be restrained and and grow within a certain level 228 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: of of of rational behavior. And is there any way 229 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: to talk them out of that? I mean, is there 230 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: any way to get them to pull all the oil 231 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 1: out of the ground here, because otherwise we have to 232 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: send our president over to Saudi Arabia having him court 233 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 1: Mohammed bin Salmon or um, you know, change the rules 234 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: so that we can remove sanctions from countries like Venezuela 235 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 1: and tap their oil, Like why don't we just get 236 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: our own? The industry can't grow like that, you know, 237 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: even though you can add a little bit more rigs 238 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: here on the margin here and there, etcetera. To ramp 239 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 1: up production and ramp down production is a much more 240 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: gradual process. So even in an environment like this, you 241 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: see a spike and oil of ten fifteen dollars in 242 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: a given week, and we've seen it up eight dollars 243 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: or close to that. This week. You're not gonna see 244 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: rig count on Friday jump by fifteen or twenty or 245 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: anything like that, will be up by one or two. See, 246 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: I think I'm just gonna go down to Texas myself 247 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: and put a hole in the ground and get some 248 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: re equipment. What's come back? Is it just that discipline? 249 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: Do they not trust the government um or do they 250 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 1: not really have that much spare capacity to tap? Yeah? 251 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: Now there is this capacity. I think the it's a 252 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: combination of the way the business works and the fact 253 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 1: that gramping production is a gradual process, and also the 254 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 1: past five years. And then they're committed to winning investors 255 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: back to this sector after a lengthy all in turn, 256 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: and and and they're committed to grow in a rational manner. 257 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: That's really the key answer that. All right, anytime we 258 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: talk energy, we need to get the political angle because 259 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: it is a political football. And to do that, we 260 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: welcome Joe Matthew Bloomberg News down and watching need CEC. 261 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 1: We got Mint Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studio in New York. 262 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: Sound on from here today right from this spot. Yes, 263 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: oh nice, alright, Joe. So this administration it's not well 264 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: loved by our good friends down in Texas and Oklahoma. 265 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: How do you think the administration or the just the 266 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: political wins in d C are about our energy policy? Well, 267 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 1: it's just it really has become a game of trust here, right. 268 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: I had a former energy official from the Trump administration 269 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: on the program last night and he says, hey, we 270 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: got the band rolling here within a year. That that 271 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: the Biden administration, if there were guarantees that came with 272 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: the pleas for more production, could in fact start to 273 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 1: see a meaningful increase within a year or so. I 274 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: don't know if that's even realistic, but the Biden administration says, no, 275 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: they're sitting on nine thousand, you know, Lisa's right. Still, 276 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: absolutely they are. And of course the truth is probably 277 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: somewhere in between because a lot of these companies haven't 278 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: been approved to do some of the stuff they want. 279 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: The political capital that was spent though on that fist 280 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: bump is pretty remarkable here, and even Democrats are really 281 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: angry about this. I don't know if you saw this 282 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: tweet from Chris Murphy and Connecticut the Senator, I thought 283 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 1: the whole point of selling arms to the Gulf States 284 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: despite their human rights abuses, nonsensical Yemen war, working against 285 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: US interests in Oblibias, Dan, etcetera. Was when an actual 286 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: crisis came, the Gulf could choose America over Russia and China. 287 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: And that's kind of what we're talking about here in 288 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: the tweets from a Democrat from Connecticut. That is painful. Um, 289 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: And yet we do sell them a ton of very 290 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: serious weapons with which they kill a lot of people, 291 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: you know, And I think it's difficult to stomach, especially 292 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: if they're gonna side with Russia and China at a 293 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: time like this. What about releasing the SPR. I mean, 294 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: I thought back in the day that was for emergency purposes, 295 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: but it seems like now it's for They goes on 296 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 1: for a pretty long time here. It's kind of amazing 297 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 1: that the conversation now though, is really about refilling it 298 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 1: and whether the United States will go by Middle East 299 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: oil at a premium to refill the SPR. That's gonna 300 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: be a whole fun conversation after the holl of these two. 301 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: All right, So we just want to get a sense here, Scott, 302 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: of of the the big oil companies that you cover 303 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: here in the US, are they bullish about oil longer 304 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: term is the peak oil discussion thing in the past. 305 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: But you're you're bullish on these companies, right, I am 306 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: and UH. I think that the the biggest issue the 307 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 1: companies really have had UH with the Biden administration is 308 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: really the fact that they've been demonized with regard to UH, 309 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: the whole energy transition. They're being made to be the 310 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 1: black hat essentially, right. I think all the major oil 311 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: field companies have renewable energy businesses, they're all involved in 312 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 1: these types of things, but they feel like they've just 313 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: been the whipping boy for so long, and the reality 314 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: is the heart of their business. If you're Haliburton, if 315 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: your slumberj is oil and gas production, okay, and it 316 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: will be ten years from now, and it will be 317 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: twenty years from now. Despite the fact that they're harvesting 318 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: and growing all of these energy transition businesses to support 319 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: hydrogen battery storage, slumberside and announcement theory yesterday that they're 320 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: supporting lithium mining. They're involved in all those businesses, but 321 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: they have feel like the government hasn't been forthright about 322 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 1: the reality of the energy transition, how long it will take, 323 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: and they feel like the demonization of carbon has has 324 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 1: gone way too far. Look as the as the Saudi is, 325 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 1: how they feel about Europeans burning trash to stay warm 326 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: this winter. There's such a political side of this, and 327 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: and it's such a global situation now that the United 328 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: States may really find itself having to lean into this. 329 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: The Biden administration wants to forward this transition. But as 330 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: even Elon Musk, the king of the electric car, will 331 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 1: tell you, we need more oil now to make that happen. So, 332 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: I mean his administration are they sensitive to that, because 333 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: I don't see it. I mean the kind of the 334 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 1: comments that Scott sees from his companies. Just President Biden, 335 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: what was he getting off a helicopter or something on 336 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: the lawn at the White House saying the Middle Eastern 337 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: trip to Saudi or aven trip wasn't about all. Didn't 338 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 1: regret it, of course, but he said that before they 339 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 1: went to so we wouldn't have this segment right now. 340 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: But of course it was about oil largely, and it 341 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: was about security. But you can't have security without oil 342 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: and vice versa. Yes, Look, this is uh, this is 343 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 1: an issue when you also hear reports now on the 344 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: terminal about loosening sanctions against Venezuela. So you know which 345 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 1: bad guy do you want to buy for room? All right, 346 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew, thanks so much for joining us on short notice. 347 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew Uh covering off Things, Washington, d C. For 348 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg newsm Sound absolutely good stuff. Scott Levin, he covers 349 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: the energy uh space Industrial space for Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks 350 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 1: those guys for joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive 351 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: Brokers studio. Looking at Wacoud oil, it's up seventy one 352 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: eighty eight dollars forty five cents of barrel for w 353 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: t I Crude. Well, this Elon Musk Twitter story is 354 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: kind of like, you know, an accident you pass on 355 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: the road. You can't you can't, you know, you can't 356 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: help yourself at slowing down and take a look. And 357 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: this has just been just an amazing saga here. So 358 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: we want to break it down in some detail. We're 359 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: gonna do that with Dan Ives, Managing Director and senior 360 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:25,239 Speaker 1: Equity analyst for web Bush Securities, also joining us here 361 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios Men Deep Seeing. He's 362 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: our senior technology analyst Bloomberg Intelligence. Dan, let's start with you, 363 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: is Elon Musk gonna get this company? And if so, 364 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: what's he gonna do with it? An easy part for 365 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: Musk is actually buying It's a hard part. It's gonna 366 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: be fixing it. I mean, Twitter has really been a 367 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 1: disaster for the last four or five years, and from 368 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: a growth perspective. But I think now there's still some 369 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 1: high steaks poker going on between Musk and the Twitter 370 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: board lawsuit. You're going to Delaware's the web and das 371 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 1: away and I think to find nthing continues to be 372 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: front and center, especially the debt financing, and I think 373 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: that's caused some nervousness at Lease on the stock. Um 374 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 1: is he going to be able to buy it? What's 375 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: your what's your thoughts on whether or not he actually 376 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:18,439 Speaker 1: gets this deal done? Yeah? I believe now, especially the 377 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: writing on the wall going into Delaware, I believe as 378 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,159 Speaker 1: early as next week he will own Twitter. You know, 379 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 1: in terms of where this ultimately ends up the board, 380 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,400 Speaker 1: I think we'll agree to this, but you know, obviously 381 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: what does that mean, Dan? I mean, if he's gonna 382 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: own Twitter, he has to raise billions and billions of dollars. 383 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: People are starting to back out. Now, surely the banks, 384 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 1: well maybe the banks will try as well in terms 385 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: of debt financing. So how does he does he have 386 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 1: to sell Tesla shares? Yeah, so he So it's a 387 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 1: great question because obviously it's weight on Tesla. He's sold 388 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: already a significant trying about fifties billion in terms of 389 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 1: tests of stock. You know, we've estimate he could sell 390 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: upwards of another three big allion, but I think that's 391 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: sort of a contained amount. Now when you talk about 392 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: partners or other sort of banling, that obviously would add 393 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: to some of the financing stress. But and it continues 394 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,439 Speaker 1: to be arguing. And know we've talked about four is 395 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,640 Speaker 1: that this was a nightmare deal from us and now 396 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: ultimately he's basically trading in Calvia are testa stock for 397 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: a two dollars slice of pizza and Twitter. That's I 398 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: fully agree with that, But this is of his own making. 399 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: Mendip Singh here, I want to bring you in. Let's 400 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: assume Elon must buys Twitter. Realistically, you've known this company 401 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: for a long time. Realistically, what can he do to 402 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 1: improve the fortunes of Twitter? Well, so think of any 403 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: social media company, right, it's all about the network and 404 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 1: you know the daily active users and how they engage, 405 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: and ultimately you can monetize the eyeballs. Granted, Twitter hasn't 406 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: done a great job, but that's where I think it's fixable. 407 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: It's not something that you know, nobody can fix. It's tough, 408 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: but I think Twitter is a unique asset simply because 409 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: of you know, the engagement and the community aspect they have, 410 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: and he has talked about, you know, it should have 411 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 1: a better constructure. Right now, Twittor has the most bloated 412 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: constructure among all the social media names. So I think 413 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: the first thing is to clean up the constructure, but 414 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: also figure out a way to monetize the engagement better 415 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: and I'll be a combination of both ads and subscriptions. 416 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: And then deep, I mean the balance sheet. Assuming he 417 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 1: does raises twelve and a half billion dollars of debt, 418 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: this seems gonna be leveraged. Just by my super back 419 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: at the envelope, you know, ten times or something ebitda, 420 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 1: I mean I need to seem to be two to 421 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: three or four times ebitda. Well, so that's where he 422 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: can raise the ibada and and that's what I mean, 423 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: like if once you clean up the constructure, you introduce subscriptions, 424 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: and look, it's not that easy. I mean, we can 425 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 1: talk about a plan, but there is no kind of 426 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: playbook here. He's gonna try things out and he has 427 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 1: to find someone to run the company first. He's not 428 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 1: going to do it himself. So clearly a lot of unknowns. 429 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,959 Speaker 1: But we know Twitter was the most inefficient when it 430 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: comes to the social media platforms, and I think there 431 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: is a clean out that can be done over there. 432 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: Dan does, does this sour? What has been your very 433 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: bullish call on Tesla in a sense that perhaps Elon 434 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:23,239 Speaker 1: Musk is losing focus? Is that factor into your analysis? Well, 435 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,199 Speaker 1: I think that's been some of the worry here is 436 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 1: that he's going to juggle a lot of balls. This 437 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 1: stay sacks as well as Twitter as Mandy. I do 438 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: believe he farms out the management of it in terms 439 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: of Twitter, but there's nowhere. This is just a disaster 440 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:42,239 Speaker 1: deal from Musk, and it's weighed on Tesso Stock and 441 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: then and now I think it's been put a little 442 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: in the penalty box until this soap opera cleared. His 443 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: text messages that were released as a result of court 444 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: case included one um between Elon Musk and someone called 445 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 1: t J. That's why the speculated that that's his ex 446 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: wife to Lula Riley starts out with a tweet from her. 447 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 1: She says, quote, can you buy Twitter and then delete it? Please? 448 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 1: X X? This is gonna Is it? Just too optimistic 449 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 1: and hopeful Dan that there's any chance he does that. Look, 450 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: I think the bigger issue for Musk is that once 451 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: he signed those documents, he crossed the invisible gray line 452 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: and now he's going to ultimately on Twitter, and he 453 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 1: got cold feet. He tried to escape through it in 454 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: terms of the Bob issue, which is a big issue, 455 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: and now he essentially's going to own a house that 456 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: he doesn't want to live him. Alright, guys, this is 457 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: just amazing and and man, deeper stuff to finish up here. Um, 458 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 1: you know, I guess the question is what advertisers do? 459 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 1: Do you think? Are you hearing anything from the avertizing 460 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 1: community in terms of this changing ownership? Not truly. I 461 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: think Twitter is more brand focused, so nothing changes. They 462 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: were never big in direct response ads, so it's not 463 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: as if you know they have stopped innovating. Twtor was 464 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: all about, okay, showing a display at every four or five. Uh, 465 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 1: you know, feed and look, I think I mean to 466 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: give Ellen credit. You have to look at what he 467 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 1: has accomplished, you know, when it comes to building a 468 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:19,399 Speaker 1: supercomputer and robots, so nothing is impossible. That one really 469 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 1: is man saying Bloomberg Intelligence. We appreciate you hearing it 470 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: being alive in Bloomberg inter Active Broker Studio and Dan 471 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: Ives managing Director and senior equity analysts on wed Bush 472 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: Securities with some unvarnished take on Elon Musk and his 473 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: move to acquire Twitter. That's sixty forty portfolio thing that 474 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,360 Speaker 1: we kind of grew up with that didn't work out 475 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 1: so well this year. We've got stocks off anywhere from 476 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: twenty to thirty percent this year, and we should have 477 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: been shorting rates. We should have been shorting rates and 478 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 1: get made a tuner in seventy four percent gain this year, 479 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 1: and that's what we should have been doing. Whiter sid Yeah, 480 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 1: that's a nice Sorry sied Hyder is the name of 481 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 1: the hedge fund fund. He did that, But a ton 482 00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: of hedge fund managers have made a killing this year. Yeah, yep, 483 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: if you can be nimble on those rates, Joe Meyer, 484 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 1: CEO and founder of Meyer Capital Joints is here, Joe. 485 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 1: I'd love to get your perspective on kind of what 486 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: we've all experienced year to date, for kind of how 487 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 1: did you guys navigate through it and what's your outlook. Hey, 488 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: Matt and Paul, thanks so much for having me on 489 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 1: to get today. Um, you know, obviously been an interesting year. 490 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 1: Crypto got hammered from the get go and the technology 491 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 1: has gotten beat up. We we started really starting to 492 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: go back into technology in the middle of June, June 493 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: seventeen to be exact. Uh, we just felt that it 494 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,360 Speaker 1: had hit the bottom and it basically has come back 495 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: down and almost tested that low and so you know, 496 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,959 Speaker 1: we're we're excited about it. I mean, look, it's been 497 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,879 Speaker 1: a difficult year. You know, if you take a look 498 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 1: at rates. Tom Bark in the Philly Fed really signaled 499 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 1: what the Fed was gonna do about four or five 500 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 1: months ago when he came out very very hockeyish and 501 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: and they've been following through on that. So I think 502 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: you know, to your point six isn't working right now. 503 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 1: But you can't look at the world through one one lens. 504 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: I mean you have to look at it overall. Obviously 505 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: that the works for some but not all. If younger 506 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: should be I guess you want to buy low anyway, Um, 507 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: and if we're not at the bottoms um, we're pretty 508 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,680 Speaker 1: low right now. So what do you like? What? What stocks? 509 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 1: Um are you a fan of right now? Yeah? So 510 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 1: we were big into workforce automation. So anything that can 511 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 1: be done finding the right technology people or the right 512 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 1: worker skills is very very difficult and there's a lot 513 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: of repetitive tasks that can be done, uh with with technology. 514 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 1: So we're not only buying public companies, were also acquiring 515 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: some private companies in that space. And you kind of 516 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,920 Speaker 1: made your fortune in that area back in the day. 517 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: We've we've been an entrepreneur and four of our three 518 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,120 Speaker 1: companies are currently owned by public companies. So, uh, those 519 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 1: are all companies I found it and so it's it's 520 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,960 Speaker 1: been fun. That's all been fin tech and technology and 521 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 1: I and so I have a strong bias for Obviously 522 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: I like UI Path. I think they're doing some very 523 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: interesting things with workforce automation. And if you take a 524 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 1: look at some of the security needs that are out there, 525 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: you've got z scale er. Uh, you know, that Z scale. 526 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: I thinks at one three that's basically a discount from 527 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: where it was well lots ago. M Ui Path is 528 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 1: significantly beat up, but you know it's a mirror company's 529 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: I think right now it's been as high as the 530 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: ninety one company I've been into for a very very 531 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 1: long time is Zebra. So Zebra is if you see 532 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 1: all the bar code scanners that's all about the Internet 533 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 1: of Things and tracking and soil. Those feed into the 534 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: E r P systems and allow people to have a 535 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: digital twin, if you will, meaning what can they see 536 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: in the digital world that it is a physical world, 537 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: and Zebra really drives that. For those of you playing 538 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 1: along at home, I just want to get the tickers 539 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 1: out Zebra z z b R A um UI path 540 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: is path p A t H that's a ticker and 541 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: Z scaler as z s you like micro strategy as well. 542 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 1: Is that a play? So everybody thinks it's a bit 543 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 1: plain play, and it certainly is, but it's also a 544 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: technology play. But here's here's where they're going. And so 545 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: my son who is is doing some interesting things, you know, 546 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,800 Speaker 1: as we talk about it, and really at a confidence 547 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 1: about a year ago, called Bankless Permission List, I guess 548 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: is the name of it. But basically what we saw 549 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: there is it's really about web three doto and everybody 550 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: wants to call it the metaverse, whatever you want to 551 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: call it. It's the decentralization of work of stuff, of 552 00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 1: systems of everything, and that's really what what three dotto is, 553 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: and quite frankly, I think that Michael Saylor and his 554 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: team understand that. And I think if you buy micro 555 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,120 Speaker 1: Strategies today, you're getting it for bitcoin, but you're also 556 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 1: getting their enterprise business for free, and you're getting their 557 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: start up mode um web three datto for free. And 558 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: if you look back on any of these names in 559 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 1: five years, you're gonna say, I'm glad I was on 560 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 1: the Man Paul and Joe Joe Joe. Is it true 561 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 1: that you spend four years of your life inside of 562 00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 1: an army tank? I did spend actually five years active 563 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 1: duty another eight in the reserves. I was on M 564 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,280 Speaker 1: one and M one A one tanks. And so when 565 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 1: I see when I see some of the things with 566 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,479 Speaker 1: tanks going on in the Ukraine, I cringe a little bit, 567 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 1: But I also know that technology is last are where 568 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 1: are you stay. Where were you stationed. I was in 569 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: Germany and then I was also in the States. Was 570 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 1: actually in the reserve during the first called for but 571 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 1: a lot of my friends were overseas. And you know 572 00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 1: what nobody really recognizes. We've got Veterans Day coming up 573 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: here about for SOMETHINGOW days. You know, it's the families 574 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 1: that really do a lot for our veterans, because if 575 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 1: the families at home aren't aren't supporting your soldiers and 576 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 1: their men and women in the field, that it makes 577 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 1: it difficult. Joe, thanks for your service. We really appreciate it, 578 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: and thanks for coming on today. Joe Meyer, CEO and 579 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:30,200 Speaker 1: founder of Meyer Capitol. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 580 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with 581 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. 582 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Pet On Ball 583 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 584 00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,080 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.