1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 3: All right, here we go, we're. 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: Throwing in so spec I'm sitting it to cash to stop. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: go to wind. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: That's incredible being bank small banks, I like to make money. 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine. 9 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 4: You want to pass. 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 3: And we are underway. 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host 12 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 2: director of Research here at the Action Network, Evan Abrams, 13 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: and I am joined as always on the best best episodes. 14 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 2: On the recap episodes. Brandon Anderson, how's it going talk 15 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 2: to me? You know Vikings. I know you're a fan 16 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: thirteen and two. We're going to get into that. But 17 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 2: what's what's your thoughts going into the week? 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: Man? 19 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 4: Another great Vikings. When I'm here back in the dungeon, 20 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 4: the people now who have been I'm following this podcast 21 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 4: for a while when I return home to North Dakota 22 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 4: with the family for the holidays. Here I am in 23 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 4: the dungeon background with the limited internet connection. But this 24 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 4: is a Vikings fan home, Vikings fans state. Big win 25 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 4: for the Vikings today, really probably the best game of 26 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 4: the day. Just back and forth. Really fun one. Not 27 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 4: a great slate, but some fun games. So excited to 28 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:22,919 Speaker 4: talk about these today. 29 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, I mean, now that we 30 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: have all these Wednesdays and Saturdays and NFL kind of 31 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 2: just like fills up every slot. I feel like today, 32 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 2: like next weekend Sunday is very light because of all 33 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 2: the Saturdays and things going on. So there were some 34 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 2: fun games and we were there was a lot of 35 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 2: stories about road favorites. But we'll see how that goes. 36 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: We're gonna start kind of probably with the best game 37 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 2: of the day, at least with the Probably the biggest 38 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 2: storyline would be Philly at Washington. So Washington comes back 39 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 2: to shock Philly. I guess. I mean Kenny Pickett in 40 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 2: the lineup thirty six, thirty three covering the plus four 41 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: and the total goes over forty seven. I mean, my 42 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 2: note here is simple. Before I toss it to you, 43 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: Hurts gets concussed, Washington stays alive. I guess barely in 44 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 2: the NFC East, considering that Washington has Atlanta and Dallas, 45 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 2: and Philly is at home against Dallas and is the Giants. 46 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 3: Yeah give that up, Giants. 47 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. 48 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, So you figure they're. 49 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 2: Going to grab one of those. But I mean, aside 50 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 2: from that, it's probably hurt. So what do you think. 51 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 4: Here, Yeah, Washington have to go win out and have 52 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 4: Philly lose out. Now, if they did, Washington suddenly is 53 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 4: the two seed and Philadelphia drops all the way to 54 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 4: the sixth seed. So unlikely it's did in play. The 55 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 4: real story is that the one seed is probably not 56 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 4: Philly anymore. I think they're down to something like five 57 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 4: percent on the one seed. Looks like it's just that 58 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 4: NFC North champion now, So I'll talk about that in 59 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 4: a second. 60 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 3: First quarter. 61 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 4: We know this about the Eagles that they haven't struggled 62 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,519 Speaker 4: the first quarter all season. Right up before last week, 63 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 4: they've scored seventeen points in the first quarter through thirteen games. 64 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 4: Did ten against Pittsburgh. They had twenty one today. Like 65 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,399 Speaker 4: it's like, oh, this game was cook. Philadelphia is destroying Washington. 66 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 4: Even after Jalen Hurts went out, they get another touchdown, 67 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 4: they're up twenty one to seven out of the quarter. 68 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 4: Seems like they're rolling twenty seven to fourteen into the 69 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 4: fourth quarter. Look, no Jalen Hurts. They obviously need them healthy. 70 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 4: You can have your opinion on Jalen Hurts, But we 71 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 4: know what you think about Kenny Pickett. 72 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett's not any. 73 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 4: Gut, so I can't really fault you for losing a 74 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 4: game that, like frankly, Kenny Pickett played like three and 75 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 4: a half quarters of this game. Jalen Hurts went out 76 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 4: during the second touchdown drive. But to me, the story 77 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 4: is not Kenny Pickett, even though like the story has 78 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 4: to be Jalen Hurts. 79 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 3: Of course, because quarterbacks. 80 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 4: This defense, the defense that we've been saying is so good. 81 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: Number one against the run, Number one gets the pass 82 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 4: They had not lost since the bye week. The defense 83 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 4: was carrying. That defense made plays. They did force five 84 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 4: turnovers here, but they also gave up five passing touchdowns 85 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 4: to Jane Daniels. Even after all that, the Commanders take 86 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 4: the lead. 87 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: Leagals get it back. 88 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: I thought we're gonna get the hot read even in 89 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 4: here on the Eagles minus two and a half. 90 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 3: They got the lead. 91 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 4: All they have to do is make a defensive stop. 92 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,839 Speaker 4: And this defense that had been so good so much 93 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 4: of the season just couldn't make a stop today. Offense, rookie, 94 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 4: the year is over. Jane Daniels is that, dude. I 95 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 4: don't know that it was ever not over. I think 96 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 4: it was one of those where we had to talk 97 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: about it for a while sort of things. Washington couldn't 98 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 4: run the ball at all. Brian Robinson ten carries for 99 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 4: twenty four yards and he. 100 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 3: Lost two fumbles. 101 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:32,359 Speaker 4: This is all Jaden Daniels, a rookie going on the 102 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 4: road to Philadelphia to the number one defense and doing everything. 103 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 4: Five touchdowns is a crazy performance to come back, come 104 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 4: back from five turnovers down. Philadelphia's offense not great. AJ 105 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 4: Brown and DeVante Smith had all but one of the 106 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 4: completions and all but two of the targets. That's just 107 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 4: not going to cut it. Like, you got to have 108 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 4: a better plan than that. Again, it's your backup quarterback. 109 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 4: But the defense gives up twenty two points in the 110 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 4: four quarter to Washington. 111 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 3: They can't do that to me. 112 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 4: This is a loss for Philadelphia that is understandable in 113 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 4: the moment, But that's gonna have like it's gonna reverbrate 114 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 4: through the playoffs because they're probably out of the one seed. Now, 115 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 4: they're gonna still win the division on a likelihood, but 116 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 4: you probably can't rest Jalen Hurts because you still have 117 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 4: to get across the line in the division, get that 118 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 4: home game, keep your possibility alive for the one seed. 119 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 4: And now you're not hosting that game in the NFC Championship. 120 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 4: Now you're going to Detroit, where we know how good 121 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 4: Jared Goff has been indoors with the Lions, or to 122 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 4: Minnesota Loud Loud Stadium that is one of the best 123 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 4: home field advantages still in football. That's a huge swing. 124 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 4: This is a loss for Philadelphia that's gonna really matter 125 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 4: come playoff time. 126 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 2: Definitely a terrible loss, and obviously hurts is the main story. 127 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 2: But I still feel like the past defense, the good rush, 128 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: the offense being beat in a single game format, they're 129 00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 2: going to be a tough out I think no matter what. 130 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 2: But obviously looking at the field, looking at the field 131 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: and being like, oh, maybe they could have kept pace 132 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 2: for the you know, the one seed or whatever, completely understandable. Okay, 133 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: let's kind of keep moving here. Minnesota at Seattle. So 134 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 2: Minnesota wins the game twenty seven to twenty four. They 135 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 2: cover the two and a half points spread on the road, 136 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 2: total goes over forty three. I mean, yeah, Philly and 137 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 2: Washington kind of had the storylines, but to me, was 138 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 2: it And this was my first note. Is this the 139 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 2: most entertaining game of the day? Question mark? Because really 140 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 2: you had tons of offense. There was passing all over 141 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 2: the place. I mean, Minnesota's won eight in a row now, 142 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 2: their last six game, Sam Donald fifteen touchdowns, one interception 143 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 2: and honestly not the worst defenses during that Streek Seattle, Chicago, Arizona, Tennessee. 144 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 2: So I keep looking at like the statistics week in 145 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 2: and week out and seeing Sam Donald's name at the 146 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,799 Speaker 2: top of that list, and listen, we get it. Minnesota 147 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 2: also blew a seventeen to seven lead in this game. 148 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: Seattle led for the first time late twenty four to twenty, 149 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 2: and but Darnald right away replies four plays, seventy yards 150 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: goes to Jefferson, and Flora's defense closes the door. I 151 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 2: think the mixture between let's say, Darnald not turning it 152 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 2: over like maybe we're used to, and how dangerous Minnesota's 153 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: defense is with Flores, I think it's relatively dangerous, and obviously, 154 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: I mean they've won thirteen games at this point, but 155 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 2: very very crazy, and if anyone watching the game at 156 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: the end Gino's visibly very upset because it looked like 157 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 2: looked like there was a mistimed route with Metcalf, which 158 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 2: you could say cost them. They were, you know, in 159 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: their own territory. It was still a long way to go, 160 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 2: but obviously some miscommunication there, there's some anger there. Obviously 161 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 2: Seattle kind of blows an opportunity, especially with the fact 162 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 2: that the Rams get the win. And we could talk 163 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 2: about that again in a second. Two stats I just 164 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 2: found kind of wild because I wanted to put Sam 165 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 2: Donald's season in some context here. So thirty two passing 166 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 2: touchdowns and he had twenty seven passing touchdowns the previous 167 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 2: four seasons with San Francisco, Caroline and the Jets. But 168 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 2: not even thinking about this like a little bit of 169 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 2: a pedigree talk here. So top five picks with thirty 170 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: five passing touchdowns and four thousand yards to make the playoffs, 171 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 2: which pretty much he's on route. He's about two hundred 172 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 2: and fifty away from getting to that mark with three 173 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 2: touchdowns of the last two games. It would be Burrow, 174 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 2: Stafford Luck, Matt Ryan, Carson, Palmer, Peyton Manning, Steve Young. 175 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 2: I mean, it's really not a bad list for what 176 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: we kind of threw and discarded this quarterback away. I 177 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 2: just I'm impressed. And he may not win an award, 178 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: but they've won thirteen games, or six and a half 179 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 2: games above their win total, you know, just impressive stuff 180 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 2: for me. 181 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of crazy because we've talked about this 182 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 4: a few other times. Have we not changed the rules 183 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 4: because of Joe Flacco? I think Sam Darnold would be 184 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 4: like minus ten thousand to be Comeback Player of the 185 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 4: Year right now that you should be giving us award to. 186 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 4: And here's another crazy thing. 187 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 3: I know. 188 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 4: I got the Vikings jersey on. If you change Sam 189 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 4: Donald's name to just some other not Sam Donald, and 190 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 4: then the Vikings beat the Packers next week and then 191 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 4: beat the Lions in week eighteen to go fifteen and 192 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 4: two as the NFC one seed. That player is the 193 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 4: MVP in the NFL. I don't think it's gonna happen 194 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 4: for Sam Donald. I'm not telling you to bet it. 195 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 4: I don't think we can quite get there, because it's like, 196 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 4: come on, Sam Donald's the MVP. Too many people will 197 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 4: think that way. Dudes make him throws Hey, look justin just. 198 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 2: He's one hundred to one right now he's one hundred 199 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 2: to one. I mean, if you want to nibble. 200 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 4: It, I'm just saying, quarterback of the one seed, you 201 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 4: could do much worse than betting the quarterback of the 202 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 4: one seed. Like that is who we give the MVP two, 203 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 4: whatever happens. I saw another crazy stat for you. Justin 204 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 4: Jefferson has now the seventh most yards all time through 205 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 4: six seasons in the NFL. 206 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 3: And it's like Randy Moss. 207 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 4: Number one, Jerry Rice Tory Hold, Calvin John and like 208 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 4: all time great receivers. Justin jeffern is seventh all time 209 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 4: through six seasons. Here's the crazy part. This is his 210 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 4: fifth season. He still has an entire other season to 211 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 4: move up that list. He was so good today, he 212 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 4: had the winning touchdown, yells back and forth, back and 213 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 4: forth all game long, really entertaining. Kind of a weird 214 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 4: spot for me because of course the fan in me 215 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 4: is on Minnesota, but we've been on Seattle Island a lot. 216 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,319 Speaker 4: I've been backing them. I've got a lot of futures 217 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 4: on them. Not great for Seattle. We're gonna get to 218 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 4: Arizona and we'll get to the Rams a little bit. 219 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 4: The Rams more or less control their destiny at this point. 220 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 4: In fact, we've talked about that Seahawks Rams Week eighteen game. 221 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 4: There's a pretty good chance that the Rams may not 222 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 4: even need that game if they just win Saturday night 223 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 4: against the Rams now in LA, we might not even 224 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 4: get that game in week eighteen with the Seattle loss. 225 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, by the time we get to that point, 226 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 2: depending on what the standings look like, it's still in 227 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,719 Speaker 2: the air at the moment, but still pretty crazy to 228 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 2: even think that Seattle's gotten them into this place. Especially, 229 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 2: I think they're like two and seven against a spread 230 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,839 Speaker 2: at home and just haven't played well. So very frustrating there. 231 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here. Arizona at Carolina, I mean, 232 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: off the bat here, Carolina does get the upset. It 233 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 2: was a wild one because there was a moment there 234 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 2: because if you had Arizona minus five and a half, 235 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: there was a chance you could have potentially covered in overtime. 236 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:25,719 Speaker 2: But they do get the upset thirty six thirty and 237 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 2: ot covering the five and a half point spread as 238 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,719 Speaker 2: a dog total goes over forty seven. I keep kind 239 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 2: of repeating this one before I toss it to you. 240 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 2: But Kyler has now started thirty nine games where his 241 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: team is five hundred or better. Arizona is seventeen and 242 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 2: twenty two ATS in those games when it's in November 243 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 2: or later, seven and fifteen ATS. I feel like we 244 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 2: always tend to get to this point with them, and 245 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 2: there's always a reason why they can't get it done 246 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 2: in December. But that's kind of where we end up 247 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 2: right now. 248 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the reason is that call of duty 249 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 4: comes out in November. I think maybe that's the reason, 250 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 4: as we've discovered, Yeah, Arizona officially eliminated from the playoffs 251 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 4: with this overtime loss. 252 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 3: They fought, They fought all the way here. 253 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 4: Carolina was up twenty to ten, Carolina was up thirty 254 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 4: to twenty. Arizona fights back, they forced it to overtime, 255 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 4: and credit where it's due. Jonathan Gannon my man I 256 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 4: did the math on this. I I think I was 257 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 4: right that a tie was basically a loss for the Cardinals. 258 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 4: So the Cardinals get in overtime, they got fourth down 259 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 4: inside their own twenty, and they decide to go for it. 260 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 4: If you don't get that, like, you might get fired, 261 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 4: because if you don't pick that up, you were gifting 262 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 4: them a field goal. You are losing the game. If 263 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 4: you don't get that fourth down conversion. You gotta go 264 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 4: get the win. 265 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 3: They got it. 266 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 4: They had to have the win here. You gotta beat 267 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 4: Carolina if you want to have a playoff shot. 268 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 3: They did get it, but. 269 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 4: Then I think they didn't pick another first down. Carolina 270 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 4: gets the ball back. Chuba Hubard another huge day for him, 271 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty two yards, two touchdowns with the 272 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 4: walkoff winner. To me, the story here beyond just that 273 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 4: the Cardinals getting eliminated two quarterbacks that I think we 274 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 4: have to think a little different only about a lot 275 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 4: differently about than we did like two months ago. Kyler Murray, 276 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 4: as you said, just not good enough here, lost a fumble, 277 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 4: He had a bad interception. He keeps doing that where 278 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 4: it's like third down. He scrambles around, he tries to 279 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 4: make a play and just not there and he throws 280 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 4: it right to the defender. He took three sacks. He's 281 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 4: just not good enough. He's not making the plays. On 282 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 4: the flip side. Bryce Young looking pretty good in this game. 283 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 4: Bryce Young went pretty good over the last month. He's 284 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 4: making some plays. He had a twenty three yard touchdown 285 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 4: run and another thirty four yard run. I didn't have 286 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 4: that on my being the card. Bryce Young is a 287 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 4: runner now. I don't know that was happening. I gotta 288 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 4: say Panthers Island. I don't know if we were wrong 289 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 4: this maybe like two months early. We might have to 290 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 4: be back on Panther's Island next year. Bryce Young looking 291 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 4: like a guy that is going to be the opening 292 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 4: day starter next year. Kyler Murray looking like a guy 293 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 4: that I don't know how far ahead of Bryce Young 294 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 4: he should be in the quarterback rankings at this point. 295 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,599 Speaker 2: If they just would have bened Andy Dalton sooner, we 296 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 2: would have gotten this version of Ice Young sooner, and 297 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 2: maybe you know, something would have been different. 298 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 4: Dalton he got a correct and hurt his thumb. 299 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: They got lucky. They might have just traded the thumb. 300 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 2: That is a fair assessment given the franchisees history. They 301 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 2: are six and one against the spreading their last seven games, 302 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 2: so in that underdog role, tend to cover and Bryce 303 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 2: seems he has some control of the offense, which we 304 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 2: definitely wouldn't have said earlier in the year. All Right, 305 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 2: I'm going to give you one big status, really two, right, 306 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: now I'll do quickly before we kind of get to 307 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 2: the best of the rest. But I didn't put this 308 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 2: at the Philly and Washington game at the top because 309 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: I kind of wanted to bring it on its own. 310 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 2: Uh Commanders turn it over five times and trailed by 311 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: fourteen plus points in this game and ended up winning. 312 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 2: Teams in that spot were three and two hundred and 313 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 2: one straight up over the last twenty years, and of 314 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 2: those only six had covered the spread even in those games. 315 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 2: So just a wild comeback. And obviously there's a lot 316 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 2: of nuances right the five pat the five touchdowns as 317 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 2: well from Jayden, so it kind of goes both ways, 318 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 2: but so much to go, you know, not your direction, 319 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 2: and to get back into the game and win it 320 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 2: with the injury to hers crazy and we had mentioned 321 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 2: this on other pods, and this is just the way 322 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 2: it went today. So I'd actually see what happened at 323 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 2: the second half on Sunday night. But entering Sunday Night football, 324 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: teams who led at the half were five and nine 325 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 2: second half ats in week sixteen sixteen and thirty three 326 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 2: now since week thirteen, so that tends to continue where 327 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 2: those teams are not holding leads well, and those second 328 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 2: half threads are going to the team trailing, which is interesting. 329 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 2: All right, we are going to go now to the 330 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 2: best of the rest, just going to talk about the 331 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: two Saturday games before we go back to the Sunday slate, 332 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 2: and we're just gonna go basically playoff scenario anything important 333 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 2: we had there. So we'll start with Houston and Kansas City. 334 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 2: So Casey finally gets the cover seventeen. I believe it's 335 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 2: twenty seven to seventeen, was it? I think is three 336 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 2: and a half nineteen. That's when I had written down 337 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 2: he's having nineteen as three and a half point favorites. 338 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 2: Total goes over forty three. Only a few quick notes 339 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 2: before I toss it to you. The Tank Dell injury 340 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 2: something that can't be forgotten because it impacts Houston the 341 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 2: rest of the year, assuming he's probably going to be 342 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 2: out for a little while. Kansas City, I honestly think 343 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 2: at this point getting back Hollywood and seeing their offense 344 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 2: like run for a game, probably has more offense than 345 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 2: we think, more weapons like with all normal circumstances, the 346 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 2: KC offense that we knew post Tyreek, they seem like 347 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 2: they do have more options now with Worthy and both 348 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 2: running backs, So that was something I noted and Casey 349 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 2: again this week on a short week again against Pittsburgh. 350 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 2: They play on Christmas. The interesting thing from Houston's point 351 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 2: of view is they probably and you have this more 352 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 2: locked in than I do. But I believe they have 353 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 2: Baltimore kind of locked in as a four or five 354 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 2: in the playoffs. Are this seems like they're going to 355 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 2: play two times in three or four weeks here up right? 356 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 3: I mean? Yes and no. 357 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 4: I think Houston is effectively locked into the four seed, 358 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 4: So I did have that note. It may not necessarily 359 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 4: be Baltimore. Baltimore could still be the Division, it could 360 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 4: end up being the Chargers, so the opponent may not 361 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 4: necessarily be there. You're right, Houston doesn't necessarily have a 362 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 4: lot to play for now, which I think you've got 363 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 4: to keep in mind with that Christmas Day game. No, look, 364 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 4: it's Christmas Day. That's a good thing to play for. 365 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 4: You want to show up for the home fans on 366 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 4: Christmas like just that alone. We know how teams, you know, 367 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 4: show up on Thanksgiving for those games. I thought we 368 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 4: talked about this before with the Texans. I thought This 369 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 4: felt very much like the opening playoff game on a 370 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 4: Saturday early in the day. Just felt exactly like that, 371 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 4: which is not great for the Chiefs. It's fine, the 372 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 4: Texans can feel that way. Not great that That's why 373 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 4: I feel about the Chiefs at this point. In fact, 374 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 4: I hit in my notes, I had the Chiefs are 375 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,439 Speaker 4: ball control offense. Now I was trying to think what 376 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 4: team does this remind me of? And I realized it. 377 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 4: They reminded me of the Chiefs before Patrick Mahomes, I 378 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 4: think the Alex Smith era is back in Kansas City. 379 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 4: We're running the ball and playing defense, this kind of 380 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 4: controlling games. The Tank Dell injury definitely felt like the 381 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 4: pivot point in this game. Houston effectively ties the game up, 382 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,439 Speaker 4: except they didn't. They got what would have been the 383 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 4: tying touchdown plus extra point. Gruesome knee injury. He's probably 384 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 4: gonna miss all of next season now to clearly clearly 385 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 4: impacted the team emotionally. They missed the extra point, so 386 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 4: they don't tie it up, They're still down a point, 387 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 4: and it just felt like emotionally that they never quite 388 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 4: recovered again. And again we had Baltimore minus two and 389 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 4: a half on hot rate. It's already three and a 390 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 4: half or four for Christmas Day Houston. To me on 391 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 4: a short turnaround, I know it's that Christmas Day game, 392 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 4: but to turn around emotionally after that sort of a 393 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 4: gut punch, losing a guy like that after he fought 394 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 4: so hard to come back on a short turnaround, I 395 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 4: don't know if I love that for them. Chiefs fourteen 396 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 4: and one all but clinch the one seed. At this point, 397 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 4: Buffalo would have to win out and have the Chiefs 398 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 4: lose out. The Steelers had been a threat, but they 399 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 4: were not at the next game we're about to talk about. 400 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 4: That also is pretty important news for Denver because Denver 401 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 4: plays the Chiefs in week eighteen. If the Chiefs win 402 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,439 Speaker 4: on Christmas or if the Bills lose next week, the 403 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 4: Chiefs are already clinched on the one seed. That's great 404 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 4: for Denver, who would love to face not Patrick Mahomes 405 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 4: and not some of those other starters and get more 406 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 4: of an easy win. It's not great for us, looking 407 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 4: for the long shots in the EFC who are hoping 408 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 4: Denver stumbles, because they're probably the most likely can at 409 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 4: this point. So that's sort of where the playoff picture 410 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 4: hit on that one. 411 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 2: And for what it's worth, Buffalo minus nine and a 412 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: half at home against the Jets, and we assume still 413 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers and the whole Green Army will show up there. 414 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Baltimore, we could do this quickly. Baltimore wins thirty 415 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 2: four to seventeen to seven point favorites. Total goes over 416 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 2: forty four. I mean my notes are quickly. Lamar Berry's 417 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 2: the Ghosts for now. It's his first cover versus Pittsburgh. 418 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 2: He does have three touchdowns an interception, not too shabby. 419 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 2: The most interesting thing for Pittsburgh. So they've lost two 420 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 2: straight now Philly and Baltimore. They've got Kansas City on deck. 421 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has turned it over at least once in eight 422 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 2: straight games, which is so on Toomlin in usually the 423 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 2: way that they play and good defense, no turnovers, figure 424 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 2: out a way to win. That's just a tough thing 425 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 2: to overcome on a consistent basis. And I found this 426 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 2: kind of interesting. So Pittsburgh has only lost two straight 427 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 2: with a sixty six percent plus win percentage under Tomlin once, 428 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 2: so they've only done that once twenty twenty and they 429 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 2: ended up losing in the wild Card round to Cleveland. 430 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 2: So the question is is what Pittsburgh. I liked Pittsburgh, 431 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 2: and I know we talked about this. I believe on 432 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 2: the Best Bets episode. I think they offered some value 433 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 2: because I felt it was a safer offense with Russ. Well, 434 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 2: that's not what really turned up here in this Baltimore game, 435 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 2: which is a little worrisome. 436 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, it sort of felt like, you know, normally in 437 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 4: the Steelers Ravens game, we've learned to expect the Mike 438 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 4: Tomlin vooded sort of felt like the Ravens got the 439 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 4: Tomlin voodoo this time. 440 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 3: Right. 441 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 4: We had early in the game, right before halftime, I 442 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 4: think Russell Wilson goes on a long run down inside 443 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 4: the five and then gets the fumble popped out and 444 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,360 Speaker 4: they lose the ball there. So that's three or maybe 445 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 4: seven points off the board, possibly in a lead there, 446 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 4: and that changes how the game plays out. Then later 447 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 4: in the game, you mentioned Lamar had the one interception, 448 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 4: another really bad interception in the red zone. The Ravens 449 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 4: are driving looking to kind of put the game away. 450 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 4: They barely get in there and Lamar throws a bad 451 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 4: pass intercepted, but like a player or two after that, 452 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 4: Russ gives it right back on the pick six. Just 453 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 4: a bad play. It was all on him, his mistake. 454 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 3: Pick six. I had the. 455 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 4: Under Ama had Steelers, and that one play just like 456 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,719 Speaker 4: shot both of those out the window seventeen seventeen. At 457 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 4: that point, Baltimore pulls away and goes seventeen to nothing 458 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 4: after that. Now, look, the Ravens were the better team. 459 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 4: The Staffs are better for the Ravens, they usually are 460 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 4: in this matchup. Just that if the Tomlin voodoo goes 461 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 4: the other way as well, it's not going to go 462 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 4: that well. Derrick Henry looked awesome in this game, ran 463 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 4: really well for them. The Ravens definitely were the deserving winners. 464 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 4: They just didn't have This didn't have the typical Steelers 465 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 4: Ravens voodoo to it. And also I don't know that 466 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 4: I can take too much away from Pittsburgh. 467 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 3: Still, no George. 468 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,120 Speaker 4: Pickens, the one offensive weapon that they clearly need to have, 469 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 4: and for most of the game not three of their 470 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 4: top four corners, who aren't that good anyways, but you 471 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 4: definitely don't want to be missing three of your top 472 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 4: four guys. Pittsburgh does still control their destiny. These teams 473 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 4: are tied now, but if Pittsburgh wins out, they will 474 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 4: be the division champion. However, you mentioned Christmas Pittsburgh Kansas City, 475 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 4: then it's Pittsburgh Cincinnati who might be playing basically a 476 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 4: playoff game at that point. So all you gotta do 477 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 4: is win out Pittsburgh against Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. 478 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 3: Good luck with that. 479 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 4: Baltimore has that Houston game we've mentioned, and then Cleveland, 480 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 4: who's clearly trying to lose at this point, So we 481 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 4: have to assume maybe Baltimore does win out. If Pittsburgh loses, 482 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 4: they drop to the five, they might drop to the six. 483 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 4: We might get this matchup again as the three to six, 484 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 4: depending on how things go round one of the playoffs. 485 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 4: So that'd be a fun one. Steelers Ravens, y'allos know 486 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 4: you're in for an interesting game. 487 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 2: Well yeah, at this point, I think that's something I'm 488 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 2: rooting for based off of how this one went. Tomlin 489 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 2: looking for revenge is always going to be an interesting thing, 490 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 2: especially in that scenario. All right, let's keep rolling here. 491 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 2: We're gonna go back to the Sunday slate Tampa Bay 492 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: at Dallas Sunday Night football. Dallas wins a game twenty 493 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 2: six twenty four, covers his four and a half point 494 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 2: home Dogs total goes over forty nine barely in the 495 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 2: final minutes. I mean, some fun notes here, just going overall. 496 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 2: So the Buccaneers continue to just start hot in most 497 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 2: of their games. They did trail early, but scored on 498 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 2: their first drive. They had eight touchdowns on their first drive, 499 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 2: ten scores on their first drive. So they've done really 500 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 2: well this year under Baker getting out of the gate. 501 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 2: But the story of the first half to me was 502 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 2: Tampa Bay not being able to finish drives, even though 503 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 2: they finished their first one. It was the difference, and 504 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 2: there was a ton of points in the first half. 505 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 2: We had thirty seven points, and then the game almost 506 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 2: didn't go over. It was like six minutes left throwing 507 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,719 Speaker 2: interceptions and fumbling all over the place, and people wondering 508 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 2: if this is going to be a horrendous beat or not. 509 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 2: I mean, looking at Dallas, I think the one thing 510 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 2: that was different was their defense was playing much better 511 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 2: than they had been in the past, and that's kind 512 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 2: of what ended up forcing Baker into an interception, there 513 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 2: was a bunch of fumbles, There was a bunch of sacks. 514 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 2: The thing that just continues to be an embarrassment with 515 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 2: Dallas is the fact that their rush game is atrocious. 516 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 2: They can't like in the first half, Turpin was their 517 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 2: leader in rushing and then basically by the end of 518 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 2: the game, Daubdell has you know, almost no rushing yards 519 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 2: at all, and they can't really find anything. And then 520 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 2: you have Saquon and Henry and all these free agent 521 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 2: running backs basically leading the league. Jacob's too, So continues 522 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 2: to be an issue for Dallas. There. The only thing 523 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 2: I will say about Tampa Bay is just stall after 524 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 2: stall after stall. It was sacks and fumbles, especially coming 525 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,400 Speaker 2: out of the second half. Just no consistency. And that's 526 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,879 Speaker 2: kind of what did them in because I really felt 527 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 2: like at the end there that kind of got a 528 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,399 Speaker 2: little momentum and then they just kind of gave it 529 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 2: away again. In terms of the division though, so Tampa 530 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 2: Bay really needs Atlanta to lose again to get back in. 531 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 2: So the schedule for Tampa Bay Carolina at Tampa, New 532 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 2: Orleans of Tampa, so that's it for them. Atlanta's at 533 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 2: Washington which to be to me, is probably the game 534 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 2: that Tampa needs for them to drop because Carolina at 535 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 2: Atlanta in week eighteen, maybe Bryce in them fight, but 536 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 2: you know, Bryce at Penix that would be a fun one, 537 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 2: especially with Atlanta needing it. What he got here anything. 538 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, that Penix game just got flexed to Sunday night too, 539 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 4: so that's the one that we'll be talking about leading 540 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 4: into the show right now. 541 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:50,880 Speaker 3: So that'll be a fun one. 542 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 4: You know, we got the two rookies, Pennix and Jane Daniels, 543 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,439 Speaker 4: and then Pennix and effectively the rookie Bryce Young in 544 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 4: the finale, Carolina controls the death any of this division. 545 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 4: Carolina plays both these teams the next two weeks, and 546 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 4: we just talked about how well Panthers are playing right now, 547 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 4: so that will be pretty interesting. Panthers can't win the division, 548 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,640 Speaker 4: but they might be able to directly determine who well instead. 549 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 2: That Atlanta Washington game two is interesting. So next week, 550 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,239 Speaker 2: Washington is a five point favorite against Pennix in that one, 551 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 2: which would be Yeah, you're right, that is a great 552 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 2: Sunday night football game. Just kind of interesting storylines, especially 553 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 2: off of last week. All right, So we're gonna go 554 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,640 Speaker 2: quick here, We're gonna go Tennessee and Indy. First. Indy 555 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 2: holds on absolutely barely, thirty eight to thirty, covering the 556 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 2: four point spread total goes over forty three. For anyone 557 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 2: like watching this game for the majority of the time 558 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 2: and being like, oh my god, it's over and then 559 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 2: seeing the score, this one was a shocker to tune 560 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 2: back into from like a historical perspective. Titans two and 561 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 2: thirteen against the spread now this season, that is tied 562 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 2: for the worst mark for any team against the spread 563 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl era. And one just note on 564 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:03,880 Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor, So twenty nine of two eighteen and three touchdowns. 565 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 2: Only Moster and Le'Veon Bell have done that in the 566 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 2: last decade. So an absolute monster day for him, which 567 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 2: you know, basically got them to win after all the 568 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 2: points they allowed. 569 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, we saw, we all saw what happened 570 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 4: with Taylor last week. Right, He's going in for the 571 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,439 Speaker 4: touchdown to probably get the big win in Denver, dropped 572 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 4: the ball just at the goal line being an eighty Yet, 573 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 4: like we all know that's what happened. I had to 574 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 4: be honest, I kind of thought emotionally that this team 575 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 4: might roll over after that, you gave that game away. 576 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 4: That was basically a playoff game. Instead, they came into 577 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 4: the opposite Here is thirty eight to seven before garbage time. 578 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 4: Tennessee got three touchdowns in garbage time, but up until 579 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 4: that point, thirty eight to seven, Tennessee had one hundred 580 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 4: and eleven yards. The Colts demolished them. Will Levis got 581 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 4: benched for Mason Rudolph. It's like he was never bench 582 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 4: Mason Rudolph through three interceptions. Will Levis can throw three interceptions. 583 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 4: I don't know what's happening with that. The Colts, on 584 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 4: the other hand, I don't know. I was like, well, 585 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,880 Speaker 4: can Anthony Richardson show up for a big game? Well, 586 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,719 Speaker 4: you know how you get Anthony Richardson to show up 587 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,120 Speaker 4: for a big game. Don't have him pass the ball. 588 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 4: He only had seven completions in this game. The cults 589 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 4: were just like, you know what, what if we just 590 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 4: only run? Jonathan Taylor just ran, ran, ran all game long. 591 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 4: They called forty eight rushes and fourteen passes all game 592 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 4: because why bother calling a pass when every run is 593 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 4: working against what had been a pretty good Titans run defense, 594 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 4: and did not show up today, so I thought the 595 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 4: Cults are pretty impressive. To me, the takeaway is the 596 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 4: thirty eight to seven, not the thirty eight thirty. I 597 00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 4: know the whole thing counts, but I think that was 598 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,680 Speaker 4: mostly garbage time. His Colt defense has quietly played pretty well, 599 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 4: and we'll be coming back to them in the hot 600 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 4: red later. 601 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't even know what Tennessee does because right 602 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 2: now they're slated for the fourth pick. There's not four quarterbacks. 603 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 2: I don't believe in this draft, and you don't have 604 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 2: on your rosters, so that is a decision for the 605 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 2: future there all right, Rams and Jets. Rams beat the 606 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 2: Jets nineteen to nine in New York. Rams cover the 607 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 2: three point spread on the road, total goes under forty seven. 608 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 2: I mean games are five and one in the last 609 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 2: six games after starting the year one and four. They're 610 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 2: on their way to potentially win the division after a 611 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 2: one and four start, which is really impressive, I believe. Yeah, 612 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 2: last decade, two teams have started one to four and 613 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 2: won the division twenty twenty Washington and twenty fifteen Texans. 614 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 2: And one note for next week, and I wanted to 615 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 2: add this before tossing it to so Rogers through his 616 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 2: four hundred and ninety ninth touchdown pass this week to 617 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 2: Devonte Adams. It really also feels like he's forcing it 618 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 2: to him because it felt like he was doing it 619 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 2: all game. I think he wants his five hundreds to 620 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 2: get five hundred to go to him as well, so 621 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 2: that will be something I will look for next weekend. 622 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a smart angle. I like that. This game's stunck. 623 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 4: This game was not fun, and I know because the 624 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 4: Rams were my side of the week and we got it. 625 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 4: We got the Rams, we got one of the alternate 626 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 4: escalators as well. Did not deserve it. I'm not going 627 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 4: to take credit for that. 628 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 3: We'll take it. We'll take the win. This was an 629 00:29:58,160 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 3: ugly game. 630 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 4: I thought the Jets out played the underlying stats had 631 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 4: them out playing them. But in true Jets fashion, three 632 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 4: turnovers on downs, they kicked a field goal on the three, 633 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 4: they missed a field goal, they lost to fumble. They're 634 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 4: two to five on fourth down turnovers. Just just the 635 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 4: Jets season in a nutshell. And the Rams, on the meanwhile, 636 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 4: have nineteen points here against the Rams that they had 637 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 4: to get too late, thirteen points in the fourth quarter, 638 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 4: this game was six to six at one point on 639 00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 4: two touchdowns. They both missed the extra point, which is 640 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 4: just the Jets as stat that you possibly can have, 641 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 4: But basically, the Rams have six points into the fourth 642 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 4: quarter here against the Jets. Don't forget the last game 643 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 4: where they played the Niners on a Thursday night and 644 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 4: didn't get a touchdown in that game. 645 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 3: They were twelve. 646 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 4: They won both of the games, and now they are 647 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,959 Speaker 4: basically in the driver's seat for the division. But I 648 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 4: think we think of the Rams. I gave the cap 649 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 4: of the Rams as this dominant offensive team. They have 650 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 4: not been that in these two games. So do we 651 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 4: credit them for having other ways to win and being 652 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 4: able to scrap some things out like this or are 653 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 4: they a little bit overrated? And I'll give you a 654 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 4: spoiler alert. I don't think the Rams are as good 655 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 4: as we're giving them credit for. I would be all 656 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 4: over Cardinals Saturday Night Cardinals in LA for the Rams. 657 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 4: That would have been my number one pick for the 658 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,720 Speaker 4: hot read. It's not because I think the Rams are 659 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 4: gonna get the money. I think it's gonna get to 660 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 4: six or even towards seven. It's five and a half. 661 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 4: Most books right now. I don't need the Cardinals yet, 662 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 4: but I can tell you there's a very good chance 663 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 4: they'll be leading our picks when we get to them 664 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,200 Speaker 4: on the best bets next week, because I think the 665 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 4: Cardinals Kyler as an underdog, has been very dangerous ats 666 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 4: for his career. Matt Stafford has not been great against 667 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 4: other teams in this range, like five hundred competitive sort 668 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 4: of teams. I don't know, man, I the Rams. Maybe 669 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 4: it's because I was stressing on this one because I 670 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 4: had the big pick on the game for today. They're 671 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 4: not impressing right now, and the Jets are not very 672 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 4: good and they barely get over the line they frankly 673 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,040 Speaker 4: didn't deserve to here. I'm not sure that the Rams 674 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 4: had that playoff spot locked up just yet. I think 675 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 4: we're gonna get some drama still. 676 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately, Rams Cardinals is like the perfect spot next 677 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 2: week where you have a team just eliminated the other 678 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 2: team absolutely needs it. Not only that, lines already moved 679 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 2: two points three and a half to five and a half, 680 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 2: and I assume you know, once everyone else looks at 681 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 2: the standings and sees the Big Z next to Arizona, 682 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 2: they're gonna be like, Oh, we've got to take the 683 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 2: Rams this week, so I'm assuming that probably gets a 684 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 2: little bit higher. I think you're right, it's a good spot. 685 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here. San Francisco Miami. Miami 686 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 2: wins a game twenty nine to seventeen at home. They 687 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 2: covers one and a half point underdogs as San Francisco 688 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 2: ends up closing as a favorite on the road. Total 689 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:48,600 Speaker 2: goes over forty four. I mean, the entire time watching 690 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 2: this game, it just kind of looked like two teams 691 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 2: that weren't making the playoffs, Like legitimately, back and forth. 692 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 2: San Francisco at eleven penalties. They got out rushed by 693 00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 2: eighty yards. They had the only turnover the game, which 694 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 2: is a pretty interception. But I don't necessarily think either 695 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 2: team's defense looked fantastic and having for a little while. 696 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 2: The real difference in the game, with San Francisco scored 697 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 2: seven points in the second half, miss field goal, touchdown, punt, interception, 698 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 2: turnover on downs the crazy one for me, and I 699 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 2: honestly i'd love to hear your thoughts about it. Just quickly. 700 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 2: The Niners are two and thirteen second half ats this year, 701 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 2: three and sixteen second half ats last nineteen games. Last 702 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 2: year fourth quarter ats they were fourteen and five best, 703 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 2: second best mark in the league. I assume to me 704 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 2: it's all the injuries, but they just can't finish in 705 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 2: the red zone. It's coming back to bite them. 706 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, the red zone thing just keeps coming up and 707 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 4: keeps coming up at some point. And it's not just 708 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,480 Speaker 4: this year, like that is a Shanahan bugaboo that has 709 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:50,200 Speaker 4: stayed with him. 710 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 3: For his career. 711 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 2: That's fair. 712 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 4: So I do think we're seeing that with some of these, 713 00:33:54,160 --> 00:34:00,480 Speaker 4: like these fancy offensive coordinators basically Shanahan, McDaniel McVeigh, that 714 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 4: they're manufacturing with more room on the field, they can 715 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 4: do their thing. When it gets a little more condensed, 716 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 4: and those quarterbacks got to make a play, it doesn't. 717 00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:09,959 Speaker 3: Work quite as well. 718 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,879 Speaker 4: So at some point that becomes a pattern. Red zone 719 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,959 Speaker 4: is supposed to be mostly noise for the most part. 720 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:16,920 Speaker 4: But we got a lot of data on chan had 721 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:18,600 Speaker 4: those points and it's the same sort of thing year 722 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,319 Speaker 4: after year. I don't know about the second half thing 723 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 4: other than it just hasn't been the year in San Francisco. 724 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 4: They just have so many injuries. It hasn't worked out 725 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 4: for them, and I think too, I would say I'm 726 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,280 Speaker 4: guilty of this as much as anyone. I think books 727 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,479 Speaker 4: and betters haven't really cut up to just how much 728 00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 4: not the year it is for San Francisco. I think 729 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 4: we continue to think like, oh, well, Deebo's still out there, 730 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 4: and Kittle's still out there, and like Party's playing pretty well. 731 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 4: He is playing better, I think than he had in 732 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,560 Speaker 4: previous years. We talked about that early. He's been more 733 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,479 Speaker 4: valuable to the Niners this year, which made him less 734 00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 4: valuable relative to the league, because they don't want him 735 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 4: being less valuable, but they have to. They had to 736 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 4: make invaluables, and I think they're like a seventy one 737 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,919 Speaker 4: percent pass ray because they're down to like their fifth 738 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,920 Speaker 4: or sixteen running back. We finally made cal Shanahan not 739 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 4: run the ball. There's nobody left to run the ball 740 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 4: in San Francisco anymore. So Yeah, it's San Francisco plays 741 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 4: next Monday night home against Detroit for the Lions, who 742 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 4: need that game now to stay in their chase for 743 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 4: the one seed. And don't forget who played San Francisco 744 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 4: in Nancy Championship game last year. And had it and 745 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 4: then didn't have it anymore. And if I know Dan 746 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,279 Speaker 4: Campbell at all, I promise yet they've been waiting for 747 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 4: this game on the calendar, and San Francisco is not 748 00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 4: as good as they have been. Detroit is definitely a 749 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:36,320 Speaker 4: spot I'll be looking hard at for next week because 750 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 4: that is a spot that know the Lions will be 751 00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 4: excited to get back after what they gave up last year. 752 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,359 Speaker 2: It's gonna be hard to ignore. I think the two 753 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 2: and a half on the first half, which it is 754 00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:49,320 Speaker 2: right now as well. Detroit just tying the bow on 755 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 2: San Francisco nine and twelve in their last twenty one 756 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 2: game straight up. So I mean they just that's the 757 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:57,360 Speaker 2: team that they are right now, even going back to 758 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,399 Speaker 2: last year, losing a few games, you know, see down 759 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 2: the stretch and here from the ap Shanahan, oh and 760 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 2: forty three now in the regular season in playoffs when 761 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 2: trailing by eight plus points in the fourth quarter. So 762 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 2: the comeback stat, the you know, get back into the 763 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 2: game stat we keep hearing over and over again comes 764 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:20,200 Speaker 2: into play again today, all right, Giants at Falcons. Falcons 765 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 2: win thirty four to seven, covering is nine and a 766 00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:27,280 Speaker 2: half point favorites on the closed total under forty three. Obviously, 767 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,320 Speaker 2: Pennick's one of the largest lines ever for a quarterback 768 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,600 Speaker 2: in his first start. But going from the Giants point 769 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 2: of view, lost ten in a row. Now they are 770 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 2: one to nine ats in those games. They are doing 771 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 2: the tank very very well, as they now have the 772 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:42,800 Speaker 2: number one overall pick. 773 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:44,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, they are alone. 774 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,520 Speaker 4: We gave that one out on the preseason Giants worst 775 00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 4: record ten to one, so they're controlling their destiny at 776 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,920 Speaker 4: this point, two losses away, no more tiebreakers to deal 777 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,399 Speaker 4: with this line. If you just look at the score, 778 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,840 Speaker 4: you're gonna be like, man, what a debut for Michael Penix. 779 00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 4: Yeah he was fine. He didn't make a lot of mistakes. 780 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 4: He didn't wasn't asked to do a whole lot. 781 00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:04,399 Speaker 3: It's fun. 782 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 4: You're playing the Giants. It's hard to get a cushier 783 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 4: spot than a home game against the tanking worst team 784 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,080 Speaker 4: in the NFL. This point in the season, I thought 785 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:15,440 Speaker 4: Penix was fine. He'd have one interception, clearly, clearly not 786 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 4: his fault. He threw it to Kyle Pits in the 787 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 4: red zone and cal Pits stinks, so he just couldn't 788 00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:21,879 Speaker 4: catch it. And like threw it up into the air 789 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 4: to the defender. Basically no touchdowns yet for Penis, I 790 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,480 Speaker 4: thought he was, Okay, we're gonna see in in Sunday 791 00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 4: night on a national TV game in Washington. Very different setting. Look, 792 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 4: Washington's defense not great. You still got Dan Quinn, you 793 00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 4: still got some actual guys trying on that side of 794 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:44,319 Speaker 4: the ball. And it's a road test versus a home game. Here, 795 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,040 Speaker 4: it's a real game against a playoff opponent versus a 796 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,040 Speaker 4: basically a preseason game against the Giants. The final score 797 00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,440 Speaker 4: here is basically turnovers. Giants turnover three times, two touchdowns 798 00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,240 Speaker 4: for Atlanta's defense. So if you have them in fantasy 799 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,439 Speaker 4: this week, as you're like defense streamer of the week, 800 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,359 Speaker 4: you're probably moving on from that one. Atlanta before this 801 00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 4: game was thirty first in DVA the last six weeks. 802 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:08,760 Speaker 3: So what we do now? 803 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,360 Speaker 4: They weren't terrible. The only team worse than them was 804 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,640 Speaker 4: the Giants, who they just played. So did Michael Pennix 805 00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,799 Speaker 4: really change all that? Or is this just the Giants? 806 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,000 Speaker 4: We don't really know. We're gonna find out some of 807 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,799 Speaker 4: that next Sunday Night. Should be a good one. 808 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, at least he got a like an appetizer, right, 809 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,680 Speaker 2: Like you couldn't make that first game, Washington. That doesn't 810 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 2: seem fair. So I do think him getting four quarters 811 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 2: at least of some work in a real game will 812 00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,080 Speaker 2: give him a little bit of a setup, all right. 813 00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 2: Detroit at Chicago, Detroit was a game thirty four seventeen, 814 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 2: covering as a seven point road favorite, and I believe 815 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:48,960 Speaker 2: if I look right, I believe the total goes over. Yeah, 816 00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,279 Speaker 2: total goes over forty seven and a half. So to me, 817 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 2: it's been just the starting point for both of these teams. 818 00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 2: So Chicago now with Caleb Williams four and eleven first 819 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,880 Speaker 2: half ats war smart for any quarterback in the NFL. 820 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,160 Speaker 2: And Detroit on the other side, this is just continues 821 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,040 Speaker 2: to be the most ridiculous stat of thirty eight thirteen 822 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:12,040 Speaker 2: and one first half ats last three seasons under Campbell 823 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,319 Speaker 2: and from I don't know if you're gonna mention this 824 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:18,279 Speaker 2: with Caleb's it's just crazy. Nine losses without an interception 825 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:22,319 Speaker 2: this year for Caleb Williams, So not turning it over 826 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 2: in that sense, but nine losses without a pick feels 827 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,239 Speaker 2: almost impossible. 828 00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, And honestly, Caleb, I didn't think it was even 829 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 4: too terrible in this game, three hundred and thirty four yards, 830 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 4: two touchdowns. He ran the ball a little bit. The 831 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,640 Speaker 4: problem with the offense this game for Chicago's they couldn't 832 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 4: run the ball to save their lives. They had fifteen 833 00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:44,280 Speaker 4: run plays for a negative zero point eight EPA per play. 834 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:49,320 Speaker 4: That is the first percentile on rushing EPA against the Lions, 835 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:52,719 Speaker 4: who don't forget, are missed. Only McNeil missing, like all 836 00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,640 Speaker 4: the linebackers, most of the defensive line. To me, the 837 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,480 Speaker 4: only story for this game other than the first half 838 00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,000 Speaker 4: stat that you mentioned is the trick play that you're 839 00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:02,960 Speaker 4: gonna see a highlight of it if you haven't yet. 840 00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,600 Speaker 4: The Lions were so unafraid of the Bears they ran 841 00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:11,360 Speaker 4: a trick play called Stumblebum quote unquote that both Jared 842 00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:15,680 Speaker 4: Goff and Jamier Gibbs faked falling down just to troll 843 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,360 Speaker 4: the Bears, just to leak out the tight end laporter 844 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,640 Speaker 4: for the touchdown. You broke that one out up two 845 00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:26,520 Speaker 4: scores on Chicago just because you're Ben Johnson like taunting 846 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,239 Speaker 4: the Bears, like hey you want me? I just got 847 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,239 Speaker 4: an extra five million dollars out of you on this 848 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 4: play call. That was the only story from this game here? 849 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, do you think he was like, I could save 850 00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,719 Speaker 2: this for the NFC Championship game, but I might as 851 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:40,840 Speaker 2: well do it against the team who's gonna want to 852 00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:42,959 Speaker 2: hire me. Maybe I'll get a few extra million bucks 853 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:44,840 Speaker 2: out of it. That had to be what he was 854 00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,880 Speaker 2: thinking that I saw it. They were up like two scorers, 855 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,359 Speaker 2: and I was like, Chicago, really, like you didn't wait 856 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,279 Speaker 2: for like a big game. But nonetheless, all right, New 857 00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:58,120 Speaker 2: England at Buffalo, this is a little wild one. So 858 00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,839 Speaker 2: Buffalo holds on here twenty four to te they close 859 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,520 Speaker 2: his fourteen point favorite total goes under forty eight. New 860 00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,719 Speaker 2: England leads this game fourteen to nothing. Like if you 861 00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:09,880 Speaker 2: went to go get a slice of pizza after the 862 00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,239 Speaker 2: one o'clock slate, you saw a fourteen nothing score and 863 00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,399 Speaker 2: you were pretty surprised there. So New England's first two 864 00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 2: drives twenty two plays, one hundred and fifty yards and 865 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,759 Speaker 2: two touchdowns up and down the field. Then they go 866 00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,239 Speaker 2: punt punt, end of half fumble, interception, fumble returned for 867 00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:27,319 Speaker 2: a touchdown, punt oh, and then a touchdown drive. So 868 00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 2: I mean, what we learned here, which we seem to 869 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:34,080 Speaker 2: be learning every week, is Drake May shows promise, Drake 870 00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:36,560 Speaker 2: May can do some things. And then Drake May is 871 00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:40,319 Speaker 2: also a rookie. Seventh straight game with an interception. From 872 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,120 Speaker 2: Buffalo's point of view, which is way more important. Thirteen 873 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:48,839 Speaker 2: penalties really really not good. So yes they held on here, 874 00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:50,640 Speaker 2: Yes it's going to be a win in the standings. 875 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,920 Speaker 2: Josh seemed off in this one. He also hurt I 876 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,120 Speaker 2: believe his pinky slash hand, which is definitely something to 877 00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,800 Speaker 2: monitor going into the week. But the win is mostly 878 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,759 Speaker 2: about just keeping one seed pace. We talked about the 879 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,160 Speaker 2: fact they played the Jets next week. This is the 880 00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:11,000 Speaker 2: biggest problem Buffalo's defense twenty ninth in EPA per play 881 00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:17,799 Speaker 2: since week nine. It's Jacksonville Giants, Jets, Bills. That is 882 00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,200 Speaker 2: not a list that they can afford to be on 883 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,640 Speaker 2: when it comes to playoff time. So they just really 884 00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,600 Speaker 2: need to definitely figure that out. In their past success 885 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 2: rate dead last in the NFL since that week nine mark, 886 00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,760 Speaker 2: So to me, that is the biggest issue that going forward. 887 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 2: If we're going to see a Buffalo team that is 888 00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:35,920 Speaker 2: going to try to make a run, they got to 889 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:36,960 Speaker 2: start stopping people. 890 00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, defense definitely needs to be better, and part of that. 891 00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,239 Speaker 4: I like DVOA generally more than EPA and success rate 892 00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,600 Speaker 4: because it takes opponent into play. They have played, you know, 893 00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,000 Speaker 4: they hit the rams, they played some of these good 894 00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,600 Speaker 4: teams lately, So that is part of it there. That's 895 00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,240 Speaker 4: not the Patriots. That is not what's happening in this game. 896 00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,239 Speaker 4: This is break May on the road doing the thing. 897 00:42:57,920 --> 00:42:58,600 Speaker 3: I think that. 898 00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,279 Speaker 4: That we're gonna have the forced MVP conversation this week 899 00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:07,120 Speaker 4: of like, I don't know, Josh Allen another interception, didn't 900 00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,279 Speaker 4: have a good game. Look at the stats? Is it 901 00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,239 Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson? Is it Saquon Barkley? Look at his big game? 902 00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,279 Speaker 4: First of all, the Josh Allen interception, this game was 903 00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,800 Speaker 4: a positive EPA play. It was a third and long. 904 00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,640 Speaker 4: They gave the ball the team on the one yard line. 905 00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,480 Speaker 4: That's like the best armpunt you can possibly have in 906 00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,680 Speaker 4: a game. Allen is the MVP. If they went out, 907 00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:31,000 Speaker 4: they're probably gonna win out. It's Jets Patriots. I know 908 00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:32,600 Speaker 4: we have to talk about some things. 909 00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,200 Speaker 2: That was on the player. It was on the corner 910 00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,360 Speaker 2: best for sure. I mean he caught it in the 911 00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,360 Speaker 2: end zone, like if it would have went to the twenty. 912 00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:41,759 Speaker 2: That's what I was laughing about. It is just the 913 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,480 Speaker 2: other guy's dumb decision makes it a positive play for 914 00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:48,200 Speaker 2: Allen understood. All right, let's keep going here. Cleveland c 915 00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:52,040 Speaker 2: Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati wins the game twenty four to six, 916 00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:56,120 Speaker 2: covers ten ten point spread, total goes under forty six. 917 00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,799 Speaker 2: The stat before I handed to you Chases. Now, Jamar 918 00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,720 Speaker 2: is another leader for the Triple Crown receptions, receiving yards, 919 00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,960 Speaker 2: receiving touchdowns. Entering the year, he was top four and 920 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,440 Speaker 2: odds in all three categories, so not too much of 921 00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:14,120 Speaker 2: a shock. But the names to actually do this Jerry Rice, Sterling, Sharp, 922 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,400 Speaker 2: Steve Smith Senior, and Cooper Cup So any of the 923 00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,720 Speaker 2: thoughts here on Cleveland and Cincinnati. 924 00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, Chase was awesome. One hundred of yards 925 00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,640 Speaker 4: almost and a touchdown. Now he has a touchdown in 926 00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,799 Speaker 4: eight of ten games with t Higgins on the field, 927 00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,719 Speaker 4: who also had a touchdown. That one was awesome from 928 00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,239 Speaker 4: Joe Burrow nearly on his knees, falling down and still 929 00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,600 Speaker 4: got the ball to t three touchdowns for Burrow. 930 00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,959 Speaker 3: All that said, not that impressive of a game. 931 00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,319 Speaker 4: I mean, they won comfortably, but the Browns are just 932 00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,520 Speaker 4: kind of tanking here with Dorian Thompson Robinson. The note 933 00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,279 Speaker 4: I had from this game, there's a fan that got 934 00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,160 Speaker 4: to kick a field goal. Fan hits a forty yard 935 00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,120 Speaker 4: field goal and he won pizza for the entire stadium 936 00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,560 Speaker 4: at this game. That's what happens at Cleveland Cincinnati. That's 937 00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:58,200 Speaker 4: what it's about. 938 00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:03,520 Speaker 2: Fantastic, great for But honestly, they're getting closer to at 939 00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:08,920 Speaker 2: least a playoff co playoff pre playoff game, so the 940 00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,080 Speaker 2: fact that they were still in it is pretty fantastic 941 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:15,800 Speaker 2: and ridiculous. All right, last game here, Jaguars Raiders. Raiders 942 00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,759 Speaker 2: win the game nineteen fourteen. Covers two point favorites. Two 943 00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:20,920 Speaker 2: point favorites for the Raiders, but I guess someone has 944 00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,200 Speaker 2: to be favorite in the game. Total goes under forty 945 00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:26,040 Speaker 2: one and a half. Notes are quick here. Brian Thomas 946 00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,520 Speaker 2: Junior is awesome, just truly fantastic. Some of the things 947 00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:31,520 Speaker 2: that you saw him do in this game. Obviously, the 948 00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,479 Speaker 2: Jacksonville job is Bigsby over ETN. You continue to see 949 00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,000 Speaker 2: that week in and week out, even with the fumble. 950 00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,040 Speaker 2: They trust him and I feel like this one's worth 951 00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,319 Speaker 2: noting as since going ten and eight ATS and his 952 00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,600 Speaker 2: rookie year, MATC Jones now eight twenty one to one 953 00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:49,640 Speaker 2: ATS since that season, worst mark in the NFL of 954 00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,480 Speaker 2: any quarterback. From the Raiders point of view, it's just 955 00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:56,680 Speaker 2: Brock Bowers eleven receptions for ninety nine yards. He now 956 00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,160 Speaker 2: has the second most receiving yards and NFL history by 957 00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,880 Speaker 2: its tight end in the season, motion's Mike Ditka in 958 00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,359 Speaker 2: sixty one. Uh. That is pretty much the news I mean. 959 00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,200 Speaker 2: And you continue to watch Bowers. He's not gonna win 960 00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,160 Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year because Jade Daniels is that I 961 00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,520 Speaker 2: think minus twenty thousand at the moment, so that market 962 00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:17,360 Speaker 2: is over. But truthfully, any other year, I think Bowers 963 00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,200 Speaker 2: actually gets some serious look here, but nothing else to say. 964 00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would add one thing, I would fire Antonio 965 00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:28,640 Speaker 4: Peers for this when this is a franchise crippling. Yeah, 966 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,560 Speaker 4: Antonio appears six number in the. 967 00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:36,359 Speaker 2: Sixth spot, now yeah, five or six there at six? Yeah, 968 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,880 Speaker 2: honestly that was in my notes as well. This is 969 00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,840 Speaker 2: the type of loss that for a franchise that absolutely 970 00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,879 Speaker 2: needs a quarterback, this just cannot happen Like good on 971 00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:49,879 Speaker 2: Doug Peterson for Jaguars. Look like they're number three right now. 972 00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:52,239 Speaker 2: He should get a raise. All right, let's go to 973 00:46:52,280 --> 00:47:03,279 Speaker 2: Monday Night Football. Honestly, I can't even believe this is 974 00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,640 Speaker 2: Monday Night Football, but it's Saints at Packers right now. 975 00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:10,440 Speaker 2: It is a fourteen and a half point spread. This 976 00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,640 Speaker 2: was actually if I look back, it was as low 977 00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:16,359 Speaker 2: as about twelve and a half, so this has gone 978 00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,959 Speaker 2: up two full points at fourteen and a half now. 979 00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:22,240 Speaker 2: I mean, the last time we even had a fourteen 980 00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:24,760 Speaker 2: point favorite of Monday Night Football was back in twenty twenty. 981 00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:28,560 Speaker 2: It was Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Finley. So it has 982 00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,919 Speaker 2: been a minute and New Orleans' biggest dog in any 983 00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:36,320 Speaker 2: game since about nineteen ninety nine, if not later or earlier. 984 00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:39,319 Speaker 2: Based off of where this closes, two bets I just 985 00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:41,279 Speaker 2: wanted to throw out before I get your opinion here, 986 00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,160 Speaker 2: just some fun anytime touchdown I thought was Kraft and Rattler. 987 00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:47,160 Speaker 2: So Kraft is scored in four of his last eight 988 00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,879 Speaker 2: and at plus twoint fifty, there's a little value there, 989 00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,160 Speaker 2: but mostly New Orleans does struggle versus tight ends from 990 00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:56,960 Speaker 2: a DVOA perspective, and craft is one of the more 991 00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,080 Speaker 2: targeted tight ends for Green Bay in the red zone, 992 00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,040 Speaker 2: eleven of five fifteen in terms of targets there. So 993 00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,160 Speaker 2: he has done a very good job in Rattler A 994 00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,719 Speaker 2: little surprising. Nine is sixty one rushing in his game 995 00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,200 Speaker 2: so far. He had a rushing touchdown actually in the preseason. 996 00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,080 Speaker 2: I just think he's going to be under pressure, they're 997 00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:17,160 Speaker 2: going to be trailing, and he's going to just try 998 00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:18,640 Speaker 2: to make a play at some point in this game, 999 00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:21,520 Speaker 2: and at ten to one, it is worth a shot. 1000 00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:22,720 Speaker 2: What do you think about this game? 1001 00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:24,600 Speaker 3: I think this game stinks. 1002 00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,919 Speaker 4: I think this is one of the worst games we'll 1003 00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,680 Speaker 4: possibly have to watch. I think you should not bet 1004 00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,359 Speaker 4: this game. I think you should go get some last 1005 00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:34,960 Speaker 4: minute Christmas shopping done. You should wrap your presence, you should. 1006 00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,640 Speaker 3: Hang out with the family. You should travel. 1007 00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:40,040 Speaker 4: No Derek Carr, no Alvin Kamara, no Chris Olave, no 1008 00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,600 Speaker 4: Taysom Hill. I think, by the way, the Packers are 1009 00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:45,879 Speaker 4: the number one team by DVA over the last six weeks, 1010 00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:48,240 Speaker 4: so in case the Saints aren't missing enough, the Packers 1011 00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:52,359 Speaker 4: are balling right now. That said, my numbers can't get 1012 00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,720 Speaker 4: there on the Packers being this big of a favorite, 1013 00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,600 Speaker 4: so I can't get that excited to bet it either. 1014 00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,319 Speaker 4: It's a look ahead spot. Green Bay's got the big 1015 00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:02,319 Speaker 4: Minnesota game next week. Green Bay can still move up 1016 00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,560 Speaker 4: ahead of Minnesota, and they got a short week ahead. 1017 00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,040 Speaker 4: So the Saints have been way better this season in 1018 00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,439 Speaker 4: the first half than the second half. They're a top 1019 00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:14,680 Speaker 4: ten team season long. In the first half, they're terrible 1020 00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,360 Speaker 4: in the second half. Saints are nine and five ATS. 1021 00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,319 Speaker 4: First half, they're five and nine ATS in the second half. 1022 00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:23,520 Speaker 4: The Packers are nine and five in the second half ATS. 1023 00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,640 Speaker 4: I don't know that the Packers put this game away early. 1024 00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,160 Speaker 4: If you must bet this game and don't want to 1025 00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:32,800 Speaker 4: just take one of the touchdown long shots, give me 1026 00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,560 Speaker 4: the Packers second half ATS. We did this with the Bills, 1027 00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,200 Speaker 4: the big favorite game. We saw them kind of on 1028 00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:40,239 Speaker 4: the look ahead spot, come out a little slow. You 1029 00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,040 Speaker 4: talked about the Patriots lead. Packers second half is a 1030 00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,520 Speaker 4: minus six and a half. We're getting under the key 1031 00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:46,200 Speaker 4: number there. 1032 00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:48,360 Speaker 3: I think that's a mistake. I think this line should 1033 00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:48,680 Speaker 3: it be a. 1034 00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,080 Speaker 4: Seven and a half. With Buffalo, he kind of coasted 1035 00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:53,759 Speaker 4: to an easy second half cover. So if you want it, 1036 00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,920 Speaker 4: Packers second half, but please find something better to do 1037 00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:57,759 Speaker 4: with your Monday night. 1038 00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:00,160 Speaker 2: I was even going to talk about the fact that 1039 00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:04,480 Speaker 2: it's plus three point fifteen first quarter money line for 1040 00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:08,279 Speaker 2: the Saints and plus four fifty five first half money line. 1041 00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,520 Speaker 2: I mean, if you were trying to go crazy and 1042 00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,520 Speaker 2: wanted to get an early taste and you thought they 1043 00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,520 Speaker 2: could stay in the game, those felt interesting. I don't 1044 00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:17,840 Speaker 2: even know what it is right now because I was 1045 00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:21,759 Speaker 2: attempting to look it up, but a New Orleans halftime 1046 00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:25,960 Speaker 2: Green Bay full time would just be something fun to 1047 00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,759 Speaker 2: potentially have in your back pocket. But aside from that, 1048 00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,640 Speaker 2: you're right, you can't. You can't be serious about this 1049 00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:36,200 Speaker 2: game whatsoever. All right, let's get into your hot reads. 1050 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,560 Speaker 2: So let's talk about Week seventeen, two weeks ago in 1051 00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:42,560 Speaker 2: the regular season. This is times where bet Labs and 1052 00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:44,799 Speaker 2: all these different tools we have kind of light up 1053 00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,319 Speaker 2: because there's lots of different scenarios and things to make 1054 00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,560 Speaker 2: this really fun. So what are your thoughts on Week 1055 00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:55,800 Speaker 2: seventeen Hot rap bo seven day on ice rights, ice cream, 1056 00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:58,040 Speaker 2: soul Train. 1057 00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,399 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking very much at the AFC Wildcard race 1058 00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,239 Speaker 4: for my picks here. So let's start with Saturday the 1059 00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:10,480 Speaker 4: early game. Give me the Chargers minus four and a half. 1060 00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:11,200 Speaker 3: In New England. 1061 00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,279 Speaker 4: There's one book out there still laying four and a half. 1062 00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:15,440 Speaker 4: The others are five and a half, so it's already 1063 00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:17,879 Speaker 4: moving up. Kind of no man's land. Not a huge 1064 00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:18,560 Speaker 4: key number there. 1065 00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:19,120 Speaker 3: Obviously. 1066 00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:21,719 Speaker 4: I'm not all that impressed by the Patriots today. They 1067 00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,160 Speaker 4: go up fourteen to nothing. Like you said, I think 1068 00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:25,440 Speaker 4: that's just the Bills. 1069 00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:26,719 Speaker 3: Kind of coming out flat a little bit. 1070 00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:28,800 Speaker 4: Patriots still lose by ten if they don't get a 1071 00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:31,440 Speaker 4: garbage touchdown late. I think that's sort of buying some 1072 00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,160 Speaker 4: time on this line here a little bit. The Chargers 1073 00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,160 Speaker 4: still need this win. They got to win to clinch 1074 00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,120 Speaker 4: the playoffs. They want to win to improve their seating. 1075 00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,480 Speaker 4: They could be the five to six seven seed that 1076 00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,200 Speaker 4: matters in the AFC. You want the five, you get 1077 00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:46,360 Speaker 4: to play Houston. I rather play Houston. You fall to 1078 00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,759 Speaker 4: the seventh seed, you might be playing the Bills. You 1079 00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:50,879 Speaker 4: don't want the Bills. You definitely want to like move 1080 00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:54,880 Speaker 4: up in the standings here, and especially with Denver playing 1081 00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:56,840 Speaker 4: a tough schedule down the stretch, is a good spot 1082 00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:59,960 Speaker 4: for the Chargers to possibly move up. Baltimore tough schedule. 1083 00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:03,000 Speaker 4: They could possibly have lost already by then. Give Charges 1084 00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:06,320 Speaker 4: another chance to move up there. The Chargers are playing 1085 00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:08,520 Speaker 4: on long rest here. Don't forget they had the Thursday 1086 00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:11,640 Speaker 4: night game against Denver. The Patriots are going to be 1087 00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:13,960 Speaker 4: on a short rest because it's a Saturday game with 1088 00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:17,120 Speaker 4: a rookie quarterback and a rookie coach who, by the way, 1089 00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,719 Speaker 4: Durrad Mayo got the dreaded vote of confidence, which I 1090 00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:21,520 Speaker 4: don't know, man, I don't want the vote of confidence 1091 00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:23,520 Speaker 4: for my rookie coach. What do you think this team 1092 00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,479 Speaker 4: was gonna do? I don't think that they're looking that great. 1093 00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:29,160 Speaker 4: This coaching set up for a long week with John 1094 00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,919 Speaker 4: with Jim Harbaugh, I think is a huge coaching advantage here. 1095 00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:36,360 Speaker 4: Harbaugh in bet Labs, I look this up. He is 1096 00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,880 Speaker 4: sixty four percent ATS career as a favorite in the NFL. 1097 00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,520 Speaker 4: That's the best of any coach we have in bet 1098 00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:45,400 Speaker 4: Labs that has at least fifteen games as a favorite, 1099 00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,919 Speaker 4: including when he's favored by six or less twenty six 1100 00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:53,160 Speaker 4: and seven ATS, seventy nine percent hit rate, nearly invincible. 1101 00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:56,360 Speaker 4: I'm not sure this will qualify because I think this 1102 00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,600 Speaker 4: line could possibly get past that margin by the time 1103 00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:00,400 Speaker 4: we get there, but we're taking it at four and 1104 00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:04,120 Speaker 4: a half. Also, Jesse Minter, defensive coach for the Chargers, 1105 00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,279 Speaker 4: I think is another big advantage. One of the best 1106 00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,440 Speaker 4: assistants in the league. He's gonna be the running for 1107 00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:12,440 Speaker 4: that assistant award. Extra time to prep for a rookie 1108 00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:15,520 Speaker 4: quarterback with all those kind of confusing fronts and everything 1109 00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,240 Speaker 4: that that mintor defense throws. We just saw it against 1110 00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:20,680 Speaker 4: bo Nicks. We saw how that got caught up to 1111 00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:21,640 Speaker 4: him the second half. 1112 00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:22,759 Speaker 3: I like that here. 1113 00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:25,799 Speaker 4: Patriots can't run the ball. The defense I think is 1114 00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:28,799 Speaker 4: there for the taking. If this line moves up later 1115 00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:30,880 Speaker 4: in the week, I wouldn't mind pivoting to just a 1116 00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,919 Speaker 4: first half play. Chargers are ten and five ats first 1117 00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:36,359 Speaker 4: half Patriots five and ten. But that kind of sets 1118 00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:38,759 Speaker 4: up for the full game too. Chargers what they do 1119 00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,759 Speaker 4: this season, they get the lead, they sit on it, 1120 00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:43,640 Speaker 4: they milk the clock out from there. 1121 00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:46,200 Speaker 3: So I like Chargers. I actually, by. 1122 00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,840 Speaker 4: My numbers make them almost eight point favorites here, so 1123 00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:51,400 Speaker 4: getting a lot of value totally on their side of 1124 00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:54,480 Speaker 4: the key. So Chargers minus four and a half. 1125 00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:56,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, up to five and a half in a few places, 1126 00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:58,480 Speaker 2: but yeah, those four and a halfs are still out there. 1127 00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:00,440 Speaker 2: And it's interesting that the first half is two and 1128 00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:02,759 Speaker 2: a half. So at two and a half to five 1129 00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,920 Speaker 2: and a half, that first half does look a little attractive. 1130 00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:07,560 Speaker 2: I will say this. I looked it up before I 1131 00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:10,760 Speaker 2: toss you to your other pick, Saints first half Packers 1132 00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:14,440 Speaker 2: full game plus seven fifty, So it's basically the equivalent 1133 00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,680 Speaker 2: of taking the Saints full game. It's about the same price, 1134 00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:18,800 Speaker 2: which is kind of interesting. 1135 00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,920 Speaker 4: I gotta point that out because if you if you 1136 00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:25,000 Speaker 4: do take the Saints first quarter or halftime, I would 1137 00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,319 Speaker 4: absolutely still take the Packers full time because I know 1138 00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,160 Speaker 4: you don't really think that those Saints are gonna win 1139 00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:33,200 Speaker 4: the game. They can lead early, so at least juice 1140 00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:35,399 Speaker 4: your bet what the Packers coming back to win later? 1141 00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:36,200 Speaker 3: So I like that. 1142 00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,520 Speaker 4: Look my second hot read, I'm going with a teaser. 1143 00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,120 Speaker 4: You know I love my just win baby teasers. So 1144 00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:45,040 Speaker 4: stay in the AFC Wild Card race. Give me the Colts, 1145 00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,200 Speaker 4: give me the Dolphins, and more importantly, give me the 1146 00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,719 Speaker 4: teams they're playing against. So Colts mia seven and a 1147 00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,239 Speaker 4: half at the Giants, We're gonna tease that down to 1148 00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:55,799 Speaker 4: one and a half. Basically, just win, please not by 1149 00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:59,560 Speaker 4: one point, and the Dolphins minus six at the Browns 1150 00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:01,960 Speaker 4: will tease that down to a pick them. Now, look, 1151 00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:04,759 Speaker 4: you kind of mentioned this as we talked about the 1152 00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:09,520 Speaker 4: Cardinals Rams situation. It's dangerous betting on these teams and 1153 00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:12,279 Speaker 4: must win situations. I know you're gonna have trends about 1154 00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:14,400 Speaker 4: that in your article coming up. Here's one that I 1155 00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:18,080 Speaker 4: have from Week sixteen forward. Teams that have won forty 1156 00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,680 Speaker 4: to sixty percent of their games facing a team eight 1157 00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,680 Speaker 4: to twenty five percent worse. Those teams are thirty two, 1158 00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:27,479 Speaker 4: seventy four and five ats thirty percent. We just saw 1159 00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,640 Speaker 4: the Bucks Sunday night in that spot lose outright to Dallas. 1160 00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:34,319 Speaker 4: These lines get inflated. I think the lines are touch 1161 00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,319 Speaker 4: high already. If you want ats, I think you gotta 1162 00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:38,920 Speaker 4: bet the giants of the Browns. I don't want to 1163 00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,840 Speaker 4: bet the giants of the Browns, so I'm teasing instead 1164 00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:44,040 Speaker 4: to just get the win. So why the case for 1165 00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:45,880 Speaker 4: the wins? I don't know if I really gonna make 1166 00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,080 Speaker 4: too much of it. I don't know if I trust 1167 00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:50,719 Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson on the road, but I do trust the 1168 00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:53,399 Speaker 4: two and thirteen Giants to lose, which is all I'm 1169 00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,400 Speaker 4: really asking them to do here is just lose, baby. 1170 00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:59,160 Speaker 4: They can tell their destiny for the one seed again 1171 00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:03,200 Speaker 4: the culture of thirty. I trust the Colts defense against 1172 00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,320 Speaker 4: Drew lock against that defense against the offense. I should 1173 00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:08,480 Speaker 4: say of the Giants, they held the Titans one hundred 1174 00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:08,960 Speaker 4: and eleven yards. 1175 00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:09,839 Speaker 3: Who our garbage time? 1176 00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:10,120 Speaker 2: There? 1177 00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:12,680 Speaker 4: I don't need richardson thrown passes. The Colts have made 1178 00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:14,840 Speaker 4: it clear they don't need him either. Just run the ball, 1179 00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,960 Speaker 4: Jonathan Taylor get the job done there. I trust the 1180 00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,520 Speaker 4: Colts defense and run game. Dolphins have I think been 1181 00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:23,239 Speaker 4: in like three or four teasers for me. They might 1182 00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,960 Speaker 4: be my teaser team of the season. I think that's 1183 00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,319 Speaker 4: because they're not what we wanted them to be. They're 1184 00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:32,280 Speaker 4: kind of fine though, they're not terrible, and not terrible 1185 00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:35,480 Speaker 4: beats the Browns because the Browns are starting the terrible 1186 00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:38,960 Speaker 4: Dorian Thompson Robinson, which to me is just like a 1187 00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:42,600 Speaker 4: shouting sign we are done winning this season. We would 1188 00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:45,000 Speaker 4: like a high draft pick please, And I think they're 1189 00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:48,279 Speaker 4: well on the way there. Miami's run defense has been good, 1190 00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,400 Speaker 4: so it's only on the passing on Cleveland, Dorrian Thompson 1191 00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:54,880 Speaker 4: Robinson is not a passing NFL quarterback. The Browns defense 1192 00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:56,919 Speaker 4: is falling off, and the Dolphins can find enough there. 1193 00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:00,799 Speaker 4: So I'll make the counter argument here. I'm taking the 1194 00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:04,840 Speaker 4: Dolphins and the Colts on the road in cold, gross environments. 1195 00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:07,760 Speaker 4: Do I feel good about Richardson and Tua there? 1196 00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:08,799 Speaker 3: No, I do not. 1197 00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,439 Speaker 4: Here's what I feel good about. I'm taking Drew lock 1198 00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:16,120 Speaker 4: in dtr to lose games. I feel good about that 1199 00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:20,760 Speaker 4: these franchises are broadcasting to us. We want to lose 1200 00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,640 Speaker 4: the game. We are trying to tank and lose the game. 1201 00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:26,880 Speaker 4: So just win, baby, Colts minus one and a half 1202 00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:30,160 Speaker 4: on the teaser, Dolphins down to pick them. Just get 1203 00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:32,960 Speaker 4: it over the line, don't pay attention, don't watch. It's 1204 00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:35,240 Speaker 4: gonna be ugly. We won't have any notes next week. 1205 00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:37,680 Speaker 4: Just when Colts Dolphins teezer. 1206 00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:40,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, to your point, though, so two of five and 1207 00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:43,240 Speaker 2: six ats this year, but he's eight and two in 1208 00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,560 Speaker 2: a six twenty ties, which kind of says to your point, 1209 00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,959 Speaker 2: And even looking at the forecast this weekend, forty seven 1210 00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,959 Speaker 2: degrees in Cleveland. Might be some wind, might be some rain, 1211 00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:55,920 Speaker 2: but forty seven degrees so I think Tua can handle 1212 00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,840 Speaker 2: forty seven degrees. All right. Before we wrap up, let's 1213 00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:01,560 Speaker 2: hear from Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things 1214 00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:02,760 Speaker 2: looked in Las Vegas. 1215 00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,240 Speaker 1: Thanks a lot for having me back, Evan. Always good 1216 00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:09,280 Speaker 1: to be on the Action Network podcast. Patrick Everson recapping 1217 00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:15,480 Speaker 1: NFL Week sixteen Odds and Action and Look. The bottom 1218 00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:19,560 Speaker 1: line is, it's another pretty good week for the public, 1219 00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:24,160 Speaker 1: the recreational betters behind the counter. You have favorites going 1220 00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:27,640 Speaker 1: into the Monday night game at eleven and four straight up, 1221 00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:32,720 Speaker 1: ten and five against the spread, and those marks both 1222 00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:36,320 Speaker 1: are generally good news for the recreational betters, which is, 1223 00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:40,360 Speaker 1: as we've all discussed before, the overwhelming majority of betters. 1224 00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:44,720 Speaker 1: And Tristan Davis at bet MGM, he said, betters continue 1225 00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:46,680 Speaker 1: to have a great weekend with the majority of favorites 1226 00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:50,640 Speaker 1: getting the job done. He mentioned that before Sunday Nights 1227 00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:53,439 Speaker 1: Buccaneers Cowboys game, and what he said is we will 1228 00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:57,320 Speaker 1: need the Cowboys to forget they officially can't make the playoffs. Well, 1229 00:58:57,360 --> 00:59:01,200 Speaker 1: apparently the Cowboys did forget that actually as a home 1230 00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:04,000 Speaker 1: underdog beat Tampa Bay. So that was a result that 1231 00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:08,439 Speaker 1: definitely went in favor of the bookmakers, and so too 1232 00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:14,000 Speaker 1: did the Patriots covering against the Buffalo Bills. Patriots led 1233 00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:16,440 Speaker 1: that game fourteen zero early. And then, of course, the 1234 00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,760 Speaker 1: real biggie here on the sportsbook side, one that went 1235 00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:23,520 Speaker 1: against the betters was the Commander's rallying coming back behind 1236 00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:27,320 Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels to post that remarkable win against the Philadelphia Eagles, 1237 00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:30,120 Speaker 1: who had won ten in a row. So what you 1238 00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:33,120 Speaker 1: have is, even though the favorites did really well eleven 1239 00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:34,800 Speaker 1: and four straight up, ten and five against the spread, 1240 00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:39,680 Speaker 1: a couple of key favorites did not cover, and in 1241 00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:42,680 Speaker 1: the case of the Eagles and the Buccaneers obviously did 1242 00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:45,880 Speaker 1: not even win at all. So that blows up money 1243 00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:48,360 Speaker 1: line parlays and so forth too. So a little bit 1244 00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:50,080 Speaker 1: of a mixed bag. I think it's safe to say 1245 00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:53,640 Speaker 1: that at some of the major books, the public probably 1246 00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:56,320 Speaker 1: still came out ahead overall, as Tristan Davis alluded to 1247 00:59:56,360 --> 01:00:00,959 Speaker 1: at BETAMGM. At BETAMGM, the Lions were the most bet 1248 01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:04,040 Speaker 1: team by spread tickets, the most bet team by spread money, 1249 01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:06,760 Speaker 1: and the Lions doubled up the Bears thirty four to seventeen. 1250 01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:09,640 Speaker 1: So the public is happy to keep riding that Detroit 1251 01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:11,400 Speaker 1: Lions train. There was a little bit of a hiccup 1252 01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:14,280 Speaker 1: for Detroit over the last couple of weeks, but they're 1253 01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:17,200 Speaker 1: now winning and covering again. The Bengals were a real 1254 01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:20,080 Speaker 1: popular play, and the Bengals won and covered against Cleveland, 1255 01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:24,760 Speaker 1: So those two games definitely fell the public's way over 1256 01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:28,760 Speaker 1: at Draft Kings. I know the Lions were a very 1257 01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:31,880 Speaker 1: popular play. I believe they were number one in tickets 1258 01:00:31,880 --> 01:00:35,120 Speaker 1: and money there as well. Yes, there were number one 1259 01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:39,160 Speaker 1: and tickets and money, followed in order in tickets by 1260 01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:41,960 Speaker 1: the Rams, Bengals, Eagles, and Bills. The Rams got there 1261 01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:44,520 Speaker 1: and covered, the Bengals got there and covered, and in 1262 01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:49,200 Speaker 1: money the Lions were file, followed by the Bengals, Eagles, Rams, Bills, 1263 01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:51,400 Speaker 1: same teams, just different order. And as I noted, the 1264 01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:54,640 Speaker 1: Bengals got there and the Rams got there. So generally speaking, 1265 01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:57,280 Speaker 1: probably a decent weekend for the public. But there were 1266 01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,080 Speaker 1: a couple of books, including the super Book based on 1267 01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:03,760 Speaker 1: the Patriots covering in the late window against the Bills 1268 01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:08,400 Speaker 1: and then Dallas going out and winning outright Sunday night 1269 01:01:08,600 --> 01:01:12,120 Speaker 1: against Tampa. The super Book actually came out ahead for 1270 01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:15,800 Speaker 1: the NFL weekend, and again part of what helped the 1271 01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:18,440 Speaker 1: public this weekend was the two games Saturday that both 1272 01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:20,840 Speaker 1: fell the public's way, the Chiefs winning and covering the 1273 01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:23,680 Speaker 1: Ravens winning and covering. Coupled with I've just mentioned this 1274 01:01:23,720 --> 01:01:26,560 Speaker 1: it's not NFL, but the College Football Playoff, all three 1275 01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:29,880 Speaker 1: favorites winning cover and there were plenty of parlays that 1276 01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,800 Speaker 1: were running to all five favorites on Saturday, the three 1277 01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:37,040 Speaker 1: College Football Playoff favorites and the two favorites in the NFL, 1278 01:01:37,160 --> 01:01:40,480 Speaker 1: and those favorites went five and zero against the spread 1279 01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:42,920 Speaker 1: and four one are the over, by the way, and 1280 01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:45,520 Speaker 1: the public loves to bet on the over as well. 1281 01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:48,520 Speaker 1: So all in all, probably a pretty good weekend for 1282 01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:51,120 Speaker 1: the betting public, but it wasn't a runaway by any stretch. 1283 01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:55,080 Speaker 1: Looking ahead to the Monday night game at BETAMGM. Heading 1284 01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:57,760 Speaker 1: into Monday, not overwhelming action on the Packers, which is 1285 01:01:57,800 --> 01:01:59,320 Speaker 1: a little bit of a surprise, but it's such a 1286 01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:03,120 Speaker 1: huge number, their two touchdown favorites taking sixty four percent 1287 01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:06,520 Speaker 1: of spread bets, fifty nine percent of spread money. First 1288 01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:08,960 Speaker 1: off DraftKings is at fourteen and a half now and 1289 01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:10,920 Speaker 1: it's a little more lopsided there, about two to one 1290 01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:13,680 Speaker 1: tickets and almost four to one money on the Packers 1291 01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:15,360 Speaker 1: to cover that number, which doesn't surprise me at all. 1292 01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:17,960 Speaker 1: It's probably going to be super super cold, which is 1293 01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:21,120 Speaker 1: not the Saints type of weather for sure, So you 1294 01:02:21,160 --> 01:02:23,880 Speaker 1: can almost rest assured that the book is going to 1295 01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:26,440 Speaker 1: need the Saints to at least cover the number tomorrow night. 1296 01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:29,920 Speaker 1: And if there are any parlays, moneyline parlays and such 1297 01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:31,640 Speaker 1: still alive, those are going to be running to the 1298 01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:36,200 Speaker 1: Packers as well. So that's your wrap on NFL Week sixteen. 1299 01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:39,040 Speaker 1: Appreciate you having me. Merry Christmas to everybody, and we'll 1300 01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:40,040 Speaker 1: talk to you in a week. 1301 01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:44,200 Speaker 2: That has been the Action Network podcast recap episode for 1302 01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:46,960 Speaker 2: Week sixteen. We've got all the bets, went through all 1303 01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:50,560 Speaker 2: the games. We will be back here on Thursday for 1304 01:02:50,600 --> 01:02:52,959 Speaker 2: the Best Bets episode. We will also be back here 1305 01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:57,600 Speaker 2: on Sunday night to recap everything that happened in Week seventeen. 1306 01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:01,640 Speaker 2: Two weeks to go in this beautiful full NFL regular season. 1307 01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:05,360 Speaker 2: Definitely stay with us for all our coverage and check 1308 01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:08,920 Speaker 2: out actionnetwork dot com in the Action Network app. I 1309 01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:12,120 Speaker 2: am Evan Abrams. That is Brandon Anderson, and we will 1310 01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:12,680 Speaker 2: see you soon. 1311 01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:32,720 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1312 01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:35,560 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1313 01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:38,680 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler