WEBVTT - Preliminary COVID-19 Vaccine Data 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.000 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. You can 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:18.720 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.000 If you can also listen to our radio show at 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.759 two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:27.080 watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:29.800 All right, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. We had 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:32.080 a bunch of headlines with the US new cases topping 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.800 eighty nine thousand, setting a daily record. We know global 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:39.200 infections are surpassing forty five million, and we are seeing 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:43.080 really Europe grappling to control of renewed surge in the disease. 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:46.320 This as we continue to see work done and moving 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.800 forward on a vaccine. Let's get to our weekly chat. 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:51.880 I love this with Dr Ian lost bead Or, Clinical 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.880 Associate Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgo Medical Center. 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:57.520 He joins us once again on the phone in New York. 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.639 Dr les Bader. Nice to have you here, Ian, How 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:03.959 are you very well? Thanks Carol, Happy Friday, and definitely 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:08.840 green is good, so up and away would be is 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.160 always good. How are you doing. I'm doing okay. I 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:13.320 think it's been a jem packed week. We're getting ready 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.880 for another one on the news front because of the election. 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:18.600 But we're also I think there's safe to say, a 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:20.800 new round of stress as we start to see are 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.399 we continue to see that these you know, virus case 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:28.080 cases hospitalizations rise around the country, around the world. I 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.319 mean we're well into what the second wave here or 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:35.560 at least the beginning of it in the US. Yeah, definitely, 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.840 you know we are as we've said before on the show. 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:41.800 You know, we we've seen these waves with other pandemics. 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:46.360 This is not the first or the last pandemical see. Unfortunately, 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:49.960 you know, humans also for from recency bias. We're always 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:54.520 fighting the last war, and candidly we were in globally, 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:59.360 I think unprepared and I think we've tried to aggressively 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.600 pursue that the vaccines are coming. The preliminary data that 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:06.880 I've seen look very good. You know, with antibuddy tigers, 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.120 we talked about that last week. Levels that that that 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.560 are actually higher and seem to last longer than in 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:16.519 people who actually have the disease. Now, you know, will 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:19.639 every vaccine do this and will people need more than 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:23.120 one vaccine? Possibly? Um, And we've certainly spent a lot 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:27.040 of capital, time and energy and billions of dollars on that, 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.720 But it's so unusual to be able to get a 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:33.760 vaccine in under a year. Usually this takes a long time. 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:38.520 So I think, um, we were really unprepared. Humans are 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.880 always fighting the last war. But I think we've responded well. 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.600 And in any war, you know, there are winners and losers, 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.160 and certainly a lot of companies are are getting a 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:49.800 lot of money and hopefully it will be worth it. 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:51.760 You know, it's interesting we had a conversation. The cover 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.519 story of Bloomberg business Week magazine is all about Operation 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:57.960 Warp Speed and and particularly one company that's really involved 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.880 in terms of the logistics of getting getting this out. 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:04.280 But what's interesting is we had some discussions in about 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:07.600 you know, normally when there's a drug development, we don't 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:10.160 hear about all the testing. We don't hear about the setbacks, 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.040 which is a normal part of right creating. You know, 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:16.359 a vaccine if you will, or or or a treatment 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.320 that has to go through all the phase trials of testing, 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:21.680 so you know, in some ways there's a lot of 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:25.000 transparency on this process, which is great, right, but it 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.520 also maybe ups the anxiety about whether or not do 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:30.480 I want to take this vaccine because it's happening so 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:33.040 fast and there's been setbacks. But that's I mean, it's 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:38.040 not dissimilar to something that often takes a lot longer 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:41.160 for That's definitely true. You know, the data I've seen 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.880 not not to push a vaccine or another. The data 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:49.040 that I've seen is carefully done studies, and certainly the 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:53.360 clinical studies and phase three studies are not being rushed. 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:56.880 They're accumulating patients, they're doing very careful follow up and 0:03:56.880 --> 0:04:01.080 blood testing. So my sense is that that these um 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:05.000 UH these studies are being done very carefully, and I 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:08.720 certainly would feel comfortable based on what I'm seeing, to 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:12.440 the early in line or even joined to study UH 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.599 to see how effective it is. But I'm encouraged, and 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:19.800 I think we we don't have a lot of other options. 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:25.839 Either we succumb to shutdowns and and UH slowing economy 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:29.120 and and and higher death rate, or we sort of 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.520 step up to the plate we've talked about last week, 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:34.600 and we can talk against some individual responsibility. What can 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:37.400 we do individually while we're waiting, we can talk about 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:39.279 that if you wish well talk a little bit about that, 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:41.920 because I do think that's important. You know, we we kid, 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:44.640 we joke, but we it's not a joke. You know. 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.280 The whole idea of social distancing and wearing masks. I mean, 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.159 there are things that you can do that make a 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:54.760 significant impact, no question about it. I just had a patient. 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.760 There are several patients actually who have come in for 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:01.880 follow ups, and we're talking about flu shots and encouraging 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:04.680 people to get flu shots. And there are actually rumors 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:08.440 on the internet that the flu shot UM increases your 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:12.680 risk of COVID nineteen, which is completely untrue. Uh. They're 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:18.200 referring to a study uh previously about flu shots and 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.719 they actually helped protect against several other viruses. Interestingly enough 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:27.080 RSV and other viruses UM, but for some other coronaviruses, 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.600 non COVID nineteen viruses, there was a slight increased incidence 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:34.120 of them. They're basically like common cold viruses. Other coronaviruses, 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:37.360 and some people you know, seem to think that that 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:40.200 was increased risk, but in fact that's not so. I 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.360 think we need to educate people. I think we need 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.599 to reassure people because, as you say, this is a 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:49.320 very dynamic time. You know. The good news is uh, 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:54.040 uh that it really is a less than five percent 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:57.640 death rate. It's about globally about three percent, and various 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:00.680 countries are higher or lower. Uh. So it's a nine 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.719 you know, survival rate. And again, how do we focus 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:08.640 on that three so, you know, lose weight, get your 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:11.919 blood sugars under control, where a mask, do social distancing, 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:15.720 hand washing. Uh. There are individual things that we can do. 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:21.200 And passing wars, you know, global wars. Everybody participated there. 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:23.680 There should not be this you're on one side or 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:25.800 I'm on the other. Dr lesbid I thought what was 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.919 interesting Charlie and his report talking about uh from the 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:32.080 team over at Johns Hopkins. This whole idea of kind 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:34.240 of what worked over the summer doesn't work now. I 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:37.280 mean the conditions have changed, especially as it gets colder, 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:40.800 we're inside more. Um, there's gatherings and let's kind of 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:45.000 throw on top of it. Pandemic fatigue. Yeah, exactly, you're 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:48.359 you're both of you are quite right that as it 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.360 gets colder, it's much harder for people to eat outdoors 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:55.359 or socialize outdoors. Uh, And there is pandemic fatigue to 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:59.279 some degree in retrospect. I believe it was actually Jeff 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:02.200 Gunblack who said, I think back in February, let's just 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:05.200 close the country down for four weeks. That might have 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:08.919 made a big difference. But people were in certainly in 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:13.160 New York City for for several months, and there were 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:17.360 really emotional and psychologic consequences, not to mention economic. And 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:21.560 I think that's the difference between Asia or certain parts 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:24.840 of Asia. If we can believe those numbers where you 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.200 can lock down a city of forty million, say no 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.560 one and no one out, very tough to do that 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:33.600 in free societies and and open societies. So we're back 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:37.480 to simpler methods until we get a vaccine. Do you 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:39.640 not believe the numbers out of China? I know we 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.160 have to be smart and cautious, but do you not? Uh, 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:44.680 you know, I think it's hard to know. And I 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:47.720 think in a way it doesn't really matter because we 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:49.800 have to deal with what we have to deal with here, 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:52.720 which is you know, airplanes coming in and out and 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:57.480 people traveling around and and honestly, the the screening people 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:01.200 with just shooting a temperature at them to to check 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:06.120 their temperature as a very inefficient. People can be uh 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.920 harboring the virus for for several days and be infectious 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.680 without really having symptoms. So and masks as well. Back 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:18.560 in everyone war cloth masks um and we had fifty 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:24.040 million worldwide dead. We actually fortunately have much lower numbers. 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:28.760 It's about um over a million worldwide. So uh, not 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:32.520 to compare one virus to another, they're they're definitely different viruses, 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:35.800 but I think it's harder in an open traveling society 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:39.679 to lock it down quite as effectively. And therefore we 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:43.640 have to rely on individuals taking responsibility with masks and 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.040 losing weight and maybe taking some vitamin D and and 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:51.520 being healthy and using intelligence, you know, to to protect themselves. Well, 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:53.480 what's interesting too, and I just want to follow on 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:55.880 that because we did we did have an interesting story 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.280 um earlier this week on the Bloomberg that just talked 0:08:58.280 --> 0:09:01.960 about a record two hundred days no local case, making 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:05.120 Taiwan the world's envy. Basically saying, you know that they 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:07.280 have the world's best virus record by far, And I 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:09.760 do the caveat if you said, you know, if we 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:11.760 can trust all the numbers. But what's interesting is they 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:17.120 did talk about closing borders early, tightly regulating travel. UM. 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:20.440 They do talk about rigorous contact tracing, which I feel 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:22.400 like it's been tough to really get off the ground 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:26.160 here in the United States. They also talked about Taiwan's 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:29.840 deadly experienced with stars and how it scared people into compliance. 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.679 And I wonder if how big a factor that is 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.240 based from what Asia had to deal with and that 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:38.920 knowledge having gone through that before, versus you know, maybe 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:43.199 our lack of that experience UM here in the United States. No, 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.720 I agree, Lord, Taiwan is a relatively small island, and 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:50.040 they can really they're surrounded by water. They can certainly 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:54.280 seal their borders of and and can function independently, certainly 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:57.040 for a period of time. I think it's less realistic 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:00.040 in Europe and the United States to do something like that. 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.800 I certainly support kind of a universal mask mandate. I 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.840 think we're kidding ourselves to say that will stop things 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:09.080 in his track. But I think simple things like that 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:12.199 if people would get on board with certainly slow things 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.520 until we do get the vaccine, and hopefully people will 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:20.120 will be encouraged. I'm I'm concerned exactly as you report 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:24.920 that people have hesitancy they think operational work speed is 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:28.160 too too fast, as outlined in the Bloomberg article. I'm 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.480 not sure that's really true. I I do think a 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:34.880 lot of companies have benefited financially enormously. This happens in war. 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:39.360 Those military material suppliers always do well. Uh. And I 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:43.080 think in this COVID war, uh, some drug companies maybe 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:47.880 unfairly have been rewarded. But I do feel safety precautions 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.320 have been pretty careful. All right. And I'm just just 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.880 real quickly, just got about twenty seconds. Are you guys 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:56.400 seeing an n y U and going to seeing an 0:10:56.440 --> 0:11:00.600 increasing cases coming into the hospital COVID slightly not a 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.160 huge surge. So there are pockets in New York and 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:08.400 Brooklyn and others where you know, there are gatherings without masks. 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:11.040 So we are seeing a slight uptick nowhere near what 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:14.280 was previous, but there's still you know, we're still early 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.800 in the winter, all right. Always great to check with 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:18.840 you check in with you have a good weekend, a 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:22.079 safe weekend. Dr Ian LUs Bader, Clinical Associate Professor of 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:25.080 Medicine at n y U Land Going Medical Center, joining 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:27.480 us on the phone from New York City. Coming up, 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:29.520 we're gonna check in with one of the most read 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:33.080 stories on the Bloomberg. It's also from Bloomberg Business Week, 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:35.760 and it talks about a well known quant firm and 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.640 how they are taking your election bets, and of course 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:42.560 rather timely with the election of course just around the corner. 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:47.319 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.959 Got a great story for you all. This story, it's 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.800 in the magazine this week, which is hitting news stands, 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.040 online and on the Bloomberg. It's also among our most 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.920 read on the Bloomberg terminal today. There's an investment angle. 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.560 There's an election angle. It's about the well known quant 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.439 trade or known for its interest in statistics of gambling 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:05.400 and it's ready to be on the other side of 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:08.520 big presidential wagers. Let's get into it with Bloomberg News 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.760 investing reporter Annie Massa. She's on the phone in New 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.120 York City and also with as Bloomberg Business Week Editor 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.400 Jill Weber on the phone in Brooklyn. There's always a 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.760 way to make money off of everything, it feels like, Joel. Yeah, well, 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.800 you know, and you can spend that money on you know, 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:25.120 the New York Mets, if you're Steve Cohen or you know, 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.920 if you have other other deep pockets and change. You 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:32.520 can also wager on the outcome of the U S election, 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.360 which basically got my attention when Annie came to us 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.959 with this story. And um, actually I always my ears 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.280 always perk up whenever she says something about Susquehana, because 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.680 that's just a company that I find very interesting. Further 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.800 interest in in um probability in the in the biggest sense, 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:52.480 but that also comes down to things like games and 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:57.319 outcomes presidential elections. So so any um hundred million dollars 0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.000 is the cap um how much how much you got 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:05.520 going into I haven't gotten involved for it because I'm 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:09.080 in the US, whereas it isn't legal, and this prospect 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:12.200 they're kind of raising for people to bet in the UK, 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.960 where these kinds of political betting markets are legal, you 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.880 have to be based over there, so it's not available 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:22.120 to us today, but who knows the future be sports 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.880 settings obviously has been legalized in some states. So tell 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.120 us what's going on, tell us what they're up to here. 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.600 The idea is that Susquehanna, which as Joel mentioned, has 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:38.760 a big interest in gaining and probabilities games like poker, backgammon, 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:43.679 and also political betting UM, has this UH farm in 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:49.080 Dublin that h does sports setting and also UM betting 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:52.600 on political outcomes. And so there are exchanges in the 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.520 UK where UM you can bet on things like the 0:13:56.520 --> 0:14:00.559 outcome of the US presidential election. And what susquets proposing 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.200 is they kind of sit behind the scenes UM on 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:08.360 these exchanges. And if you were a hedge fund UM 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:11.200 or you know, a big better based abroad in the UK, 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.720 you could go to one of these exchanges and place 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:17.600 a pretty large bet on the outcome of the election, 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.360 and Um Susquehanna might be one of the kind of 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.600 market makers on the other end willing to take the 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:29.760 other side and and any UM give us a sense 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.280 of like, were you able to figure out how many 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:38.240 people have actually participated in this wager yet at Tuskhana. Yeah, 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.080 I mean, if Bear is mentioning, it has not really 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.800 been UM picking up a whole lot of beat on 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:47.040 Wall Street. But I got interested in this idea of 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:51.440 whether financial firms would ever be interested, um one day, 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:55.680 in getting involved in more size in the political betting markets. 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.560 And you can bet on all kinds of outcomes beyond 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.520 just the idea of who's going to win the presidency. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.200 You can bet on what day will the winner be called? 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.080 Will it be you know, November third election night, or 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:10.200 will it laugh you know, will it go out to 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.800 November fourth or fifth or six? If UM votes are 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.960 still being counted, you can bet on you know, what 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.920 margin while they went by individual states and how they 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:21.600 all got. So there's all kinds of outcomes that you 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.080 can bet on on these markets. Um. The options are 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.720 kind of limit less, and I was curious to see 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:31.680 if there's any history there of financial firms betting on 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.680 political outcomes. And it actually turns out that in the US, 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.200 up through World War Two it was there was actually 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.480 a very big political betting market that operated on the 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.880 Curb Exchange, which later became the American Exchange. UM. So, 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:47.240 and you know, it only kind of went away as 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:54.040 polling and more types of gambling became more widespread and accessible. UM. 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.120 You know any one of the things that companies of 0:15:56.200 --> 0:16:01.240 stories and you mentioned it is predicted UM data on 0:16:01.240 --> 0:16:05.120 on which day of the week the election will be determined. 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:08.080 And according to the chart that accompanied the story, it's 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:13.280 it's Wednesday, November four has the has the most action 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:16.880 on it. UM. And I'm wondering, um, as you sort 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:20.840 of have talked to uh, um, you know that all 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.920 the people in this sort of space are they do 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.640 they think that the activity will ramp up between now 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:29.480 and the end or or is it going to become 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.960 a little bit more muted since uncertainty will obviously be 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.040 the name of the game. It seems like they're actually 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.200 has been a bit more action in the past couple 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:41.960 of days. UM. As I was reporting the story, there 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:45.440 had done a total of about two hundred million dollars 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:49.160 that on just the winner um of of the US 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:53.120 presidential election on that chair UM in the UK, which 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.440 is one of the exchanges. And UM, it's been just 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.600 over the course of the time that I was reporting 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.360 the story out that over two hundred and sixty millions. So, 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:05.760 I mean, these aren't these aren't by any means like 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:11.400 huge eye popping figures by Wall Street Standard's been pretty small, um, 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.200 but I mean there was a pickup that I saw 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.520 even over the course of writing the story as we 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.240 got closer to the presidential election. I have to say, 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.200 any I do love, like you know, the UK, where 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.240 they just kind of dice and slice and bed on everything, 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:25.800 and it's it's certainly very a different world here in 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.080 the US. But I do wonder, you know, could it 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.479 be pending the outcome of the election itself, you know 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.240 that changes or impacts the regulatory environment. I mean, I 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.679 wonder if there is enough demand for something like this 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:40.240 here in the US. Yeah, it's a great question of 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:44.280 sports betting has only recently there was a federal band 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.919 lifted on it, and now states are free to um 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:52.679 legalize sports betting, and so you know, you wonder whether 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:55.679 political betting could ever come into the next to something 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.840 we mentioned in the story though, is there's already evidence 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:02.359 that regulators uh don't love that idea. There was an 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:06.320 exchange that tried to lift um a kind of uh 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:10.639 few like a futures derivative product based on the outcome 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.359 of the twelve elections, So that would be on a 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:17.320 regular derivative exchange, but kind of like almost a political 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:21.359 betting type product, and the c SEC kind of struck 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:24.600 that down, saying, you know that that could really get 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:29.600 into murky territory um and damage the integrity of elections, 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.800 and it's not really clear what it would be used 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:34.920 for as a hudgen product. So I think that that 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.480 shows that maybe regulators don't have a great taste in 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:41.160 their mouth about political betting markets just yet in the US. 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:44.640 And you know one other thing that just bears mentioning 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.639 in uh in your story, Annie's uh. You know that 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:50.919 there are other ways to express bets on elections, and 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.680 you know, places like JP Morgan Uh, as you write, 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:57.520 strategists there have created you know, Trump basket and the 0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:00.280 Biden basket of stocks that they think could do well 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:04.080 depending on which administration. But obviously that that kind of 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.280 technique has not worked in the past based on you know, 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:11.640 certain stocks that end up outperforming their expectations as well, 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:13.679 which all goes back to the idea of you know, 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:17.960 it's it's ultimately that's why why lets you wage you 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:20.119 a million dollars? Because no one knows and all I 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:23.119 can think about election night when future is tanked and 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.639 then the next day the market rallied, so nothing is 0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:28.440 for sure. Um, Joel, thank you so much. Joel Webber, 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.080 of course, editor of Bloomberg Business Week, and Annie massa 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:38.879 investing reporter at Bloomberg Newsroom the Journal. Yeah, but you 0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:43.679 let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, who's honey Please, 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:50.440 I'll do the riding. I want to drive, just drive 0:19:53.720 --> 0:20:04.880 the questions trying. This is the drive to the Globe community. 0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:09.080 Thanks Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. I just got about eleven 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:12.639 minutes left in today's trading day, getting ready to wrap 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:15.399 up the entire week, and we know it's certainly been 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:18.440 a tricky one for equities. Back with us for the 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:21.000 drive to the clothes. Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at 0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:24.840 LPL Financial. They've got roughly eight hundred billion in assets 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:28.240 under management, joining us on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ran, 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:30.400 Nice to have you back with us before we get 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:32.679 into the markets. Uh, there's so much going on, but 0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:36.879 I do want to ask you how's it going in Charlotte? Hey, Carol, 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:39.360 thank you for having me back. Thanks are going all right? 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.159 You know we had that hurricane come through just yesterday 0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:45.600 and literally schools were canceled tons of wind and it 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:49.040 was it was it was, you know, a rough, rough day, 0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:53.600 kind of summarizing I think for sure. But overall, you know, 0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.720 we're slowly kind of doing things. My daughter is a 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.160 day b day right now in January. I think they're 0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:02.160 gonna go to old time. Although obviously we can talk 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.480 about all the cases that are spiking that might change, 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.000 but we're hanging in there. I guess down here in 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:08.680 Charlotte's best way to put it. Well, that's what I 0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:11.120 wanted to ask you. I think you know, certainly as 0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:14.240 individuals and certainly as investors, were trying to gauge, okay, 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:16.480 how things are going, what we're seeing in terms of 0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:18.840 these virus cases because it's all connected, right. What happens 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:22.200 with the virus is certainly impacting our world, our health, 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:25.359 our economy, uh and really gives us an idea of 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:27.240 maybe what's to come over the next few months, and 0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:29.880 ultimately it'll play out in the financial markets as well. 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:32.760 So what are your expectations because you are watching those 0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:35.480 numbers go up? Yeah, I mean, you know, and let's 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:37.840 not forget I mean financial markets they tend to lead, right, 0:21:37.880 --> 0:21:40.040 I mean they tend to kind of react before the 0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:42.720 economic data honestly and just do today. And I think 0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:45.000 it got us today was that consumer spending number up 0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:48.640 one point four month over month in September. We've got 0:21:48.760 --> 0:21:52.320 five straight months of at least one percent gain in 0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:55.200 consumer spending. We've never seen that that data goes back 0:21:55.200 --> 0:21:58.000 to the nineteen sixties. Now. I'm aware that's because of 0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:00.080 a huge drop in March and April. But the one 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:01.679 thing I think it's guests come on with you, and 0:22:01.680 --> 0:22:04.119 as we talk with r lp L advisors, everyone is 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:06.800 so surprised at the resiliency of the US consumer, and 0:22:06.880 --> 0:22:08.919 we know the economy is not perfect, but they make 0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:11.760 up sevent GDP. We all know that GDP number yesterday. 0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:14.400 So the consumer, with all the bad things that are happening, 0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:17.399 is still spending and that is one big positive we 0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:20.280 think as we head into one and likely the economy 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:23.800