Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: President Joe Biden is in the middle of a defining
Speaker 2: international crisis in his presidency, and it's testing the limits
Speaker 2: of his ability to wield the US's power and global influence.
Speaker 2: Last week, he gave a speech outlining a proposal to
Speaker 2: bring that crisis to an end.
Speaker 3: I want to give an update of my efforts to
Speaker 3: end the crisis in Gosam. For the past several months,
Speaker 3: my negotiators of foreign policy, intelligence community alike have been
Speaker 3: relentlessly focused, not just on a ceasefire that would inevitably
Speaker 3: be fragile and temporary, but on a durable end of
Speaker 3: the war.
Speaker 2: That proposal, he said, came from the Israeli government, but
Speaker 2: Biden's speech also appeared to put pressure on Israel in
Speaker 2: a new way, and in the following days it became
Speaker 2: clear that aspects of this speech took them by surprise.
Speaker 4: I think known for more than a century that peace
Speaker 4: in the Middle East is not a sort of simple task.
Speaker 2: That's Bloomberg White House correspondent Justin Sink.
Speaker 4: When you talk to people at the White House, they say,
Speaker 4: you know, this was a genuine moment where he thought
Speaker 4: that peace was potentially in hand.
Speaker 1: Now was that wishful thinking? It's hard to say.
Speaker 2: It was a notable shift in Biden's approach to the
Speaker 2: conflict and to his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
Speaker 2: and it's raised questions about just how much leverage Biden
Speaker 2: has in the Middle East, as his dreams of negotiating
Speaker 2: peace have crashed into a harsh reality. Today, on the
Speaker 2: show What's Happened Since President Biden put the weight of
Speaker 2: the US presidency behind the latest ceasefire proposal, how Israel
Speaker 2: and Hamas are reacting, and what's at stake if things
Speaker 2: don't go his way? From Bloomberg's Washington Bureau, This is
Speaker 2: the Big Take DC Podcast. I'm Salia mosen.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: In the aftermath of the October seventh attack, President Biden
Speaker 4: made his support for Israel sort of central part of
Speaker 4: his political identity.
Speaker 2: That's Bloomberg White House correspondent Justin Sink.
Speaker 4: He became the first US president to traveled to Israel
Speaker 4: during a wartime. He really vocally offered support to Israel,
Speaker 4: both sort of in a political embrace but also tangibly
Speaker 4: through shipping arms and assistants to Israel. Pushed Congress hard
Speaker 4: to pass a package that offered tens of billions of
Speaker 4: dollars of support. But even from early on, Biden said,
Speaker 4: you know, he was hopeful that Israel wouldn't make the
Speaker 4: mistakes that the US made in the aftermath of September eleventh,
Speaker 4: and that their sort of counter offensive wouldn't be excessive.
Speaker 2: But as the war has dragged on, Israeli forces have
Speaker 2: killed thousands of Palestinians civilians in their offensive on Gaza,
Speaker 2: and there have.
Speaker 4: Been high profile incidences the bombing that killed AID workers
Speaker 4: working for the World Central Kitchen. More recently some bombings
Speaker 4: in Rafa. The White House really warned Israel publicly and
Speaker 4: even froze certain large bomb shipments that were going to
Speaker 4: Israel and said, you know, we don't think there's a
Speaker 4: way to effectively use these bombs without there being massive
Speaker 4: civilian deaths in Rafa. So the White House was saying
Speaker 4: at that point, we want to see restraint there.
Speaker 2: But just last night an Israeli airstrike on a school
Speaker 2: that had been turned into a shelter killed dozens of people.
Speaker 2: And last week a fire broke out following an Israeli airstrike,
Speaker 2: killing and injuring dozens, including children. What do we know
Speaker 2: about how Biden is talking about the Israel Hamas conflict
Speaker 2: inside the White House? Is there anything that he's saying
Speaker 2: privately that he's not saying publicly.
Speaker 4: I think that the President has really tried to express
Speaker 4: this idea that he is being more effective in protecting
Speaker 4: civilians and keeping the violence from spreading further than it
Speaker 4: might readily be a parent.
Speaker 2: You could hear Biden in his speech on Friday hammering
Speaker 2: home this idea that he's pushing Israel towards peace and the.
Speaker 3: People of Israel. Let me say this as someone who's
Speaker 3: had a lifelong commitment to Israel, as the only American
Speaker 3: president's ever gone to Israel at a time of war,
Speaker 3: As someone who just sent the US forces to directly
Speaker 3: defend Israel when it was attacked by Iran. I asked
Speaker 3: you to take a step back. I think what will
Speaker 3: happen if this moment is lost.
Speaker 2: In that speech, Biden presented a proposal that he said
Speaker 2: came from Israeli officials.
Speaker 5: In essence, it was an Israeli proposal.
Speaker 2: That's Ethan Brunner, Bloomberg's Israel bureau chief.
Speaker 6: The problem was that the language that he referred to,
Speaker 6: the way talked about it angered the right in this
Speaker 6: country and made it think that the Israeli government had
Speaker 6: agreed to a deal which would not carry out the
Speaker 6: war's aims, meaning the destruction of Hamas.
Speaker 2: Biden presented this three part plan, which would start with
Speaker 2: a temporary ceasefire, exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners,
Speaker 2: and humanitarian aid. In its second phase, it's meant to
Speaker 2: pave the way for a permanent end to the war.
Speaker 2: And Biden steered into that framing.
Speaker 3: That's been the focus of durable end of this war.
Speaker 6: So that created a storm here and Prime Minister Nitanyaho
Speaker 6: issued two statements on Saturday, unusual because it's the Jewish Sabbath,
Speaker 6: saying that that's not right, that Israel is not going
Speaker 6: to allow any deal that doesn't utterly dismantle Hamas's ability
Speaker 6: to rule as a political entity, to carry out any
Speaker 6: military activity, and to pose a threat again to Israel.
Speaker 6: So it's kind of complicated in the sense that I
Speaker 6: don't think that President Biden lied, but I do think
Speaker 6: that the way it was presented made the right of
Speaker 6: this country nervous, forced the government to come to the
Speaker 6: defense of what it had offered. I think people overestimate
Speaker 6: the ability of an American president to force sides that
Speaker 6: are not compatible.
Speaker 5: To a deal.
Speaker 4: And this isn't a typical diplomatic negotiation between two countries
Speaker 4: or parties. It's Israel and the US cutter Egypt, and
Speaker 4: then a group that's been liable to terrorist organization by
Speaker 4: the US and European Union.
Speaker 2: So how much leverage does the White House have and
Speaker 2: what can it do now to keep this proposal on
Speaker 2: the table that's coming up. President Biden has known Israeli
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Benjamint and Yahu for decades. They first met
Speaker 2: when Biden was a junior senator in his forties and
Speaker 2: Netan Yahoo was working in the Israeli embassy in Washington.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's administration supports a two state solution.
Speaker 3: All this would create the conditions for a different future,
Speaker 3: a better future for the Palestinian people, one of self determination, dignity, security,
Speaker 3: and freedom.
Speaker 2: Netan Yahoo, however, does not.
Speaker 6: They are not compatible, especially politically. But President Biden is
Speaker 6: a great believer in the state of Israel, a great
Speaker 6: supporter of the idea of a Jewish state here, and
Speaker 6: he has always, certainly from the beginning of this war,
Speaker 6: believed that the best way to guide Israel's conduct in
Speaker 6: the war was as a close friend.
Speaker 2: American officials have met with Israel's war cabinet. Justin Sink
Speaker 2: told us the two governments have been in near constant contact.
Speaker 2: So when it came to Biden's speech last week, Netan
Speaker 2: Yahoo would have known it was coming.
Speaker 4: But there's been reporting from ABC News that he was
Speaker 4: surprised at the framing that Biden used and sort of
Speaker 4: the idea that a deal was close.
Speaker 2: Because it's not clear that a deal really is close.
Speaker 2: That has to do in large part with the makeup
Speaker 2: of the Israeli government.
Speaker 4: Well, I think it's important to understand about how Israel's
Speaker 4: government works is it's not like the US, where there's
Speaker 4: an administration that all sort of their ores are all
Speaker 4: rowing in the same direction. It's a parliamentary democracy where
Speaker 4: there are a coalition government built up of different parties
Speaker 4: and people with different opinions. And so you can have
Speaker 4: aids or lawmakers that are very close to Nanya, who
Speaker 4: very crucial to his effort, who are not on the
Speaker 4: same page about what the best course of action.
Speaker 6: Is the Israeli government is a complicated situation. You have
Speaker 6: Prime Minister in Natanyahu, who is on the left flank
Speaker 6: of his ruling coalitions, and he's hardly a left winger.
Speaker 6: So you have some hard right nationalists who do not
Speaker 6: want to give anything to the Palestinian as they're opposed
Speaker 6: to any Palestittian state.
Speaker 5: They would like Israel to be all.
Speaker 6: Of the occupied territories plus what's Israel today, and the
Speaker 6: idea that there would be any sort of yielding and
Speaker 6: a possible end to the war early is anathema to them.
Speaker 6: The honest truth is it is kind of an athema
Speaker 6: to Prime Minister Nittanya, who as well, he.
Speaker 5: Does not want to end the war.
Speaker 6: The difference between Nittaya who and those to his right
Speaker 6: is not that enormous. It's just that he is willing
Speaker 6: to offer a kind of rhetorical space for this deal
Speaker 6: to create negotiations, and the ministers to his right don't
Speaker 6: trust him to let that happen, and so therefore they're
Speaker 6: not willing for even the talk of that to go forward.
Speaker 2: And a group of those hardliners in the Israeli government
Speaker 2: have said if Netanyahu went forward with the deal, they'd
Speaker 2: resign and dissolve the governing coalition. Meanwhile, a different group
Speaker 2: of centrist ministers have also threatened to quit the government
Speaker 2: if a deal is not reached.
Speaker 4: If he pushes forward and the government has toppled, Israel
Speaker 4: before October seventh was cycling through elections that are really
Speaker 4: kind of historic clip and the potential for political instability
Speaker 4: there is really high.
Speaker 2: Netanya who has said he cannot accept a deal that
Speaker 2: doesn't allow for the elimination of Hamas, and Hamas has
Speaker 2: said they can't accept a deal that doesn't ensure a
Speaker 2: permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza.
Speaker 5: We have two incompatible goals.
Speaker 6: The goal of Hamas is to get rid of Israeli
Speaker 6: troops and to return to power. The goal of Israel
Speaker 6: is to get rid of Hamas's position of being in
Speaker 6: power in Gaza. So these are completely incompatible goals.
Speaker 4: At this point, it seems like for all intents and
Speaker 4: purposes that the president Bind proposal is, if not dead,
Speaker 4: very much on life support. If you talk to any
Speaker 4: diplomat about these sort of high stakes negotiations, they'll say
Speaker 4: it's a million No's until it's a yes. And so
Speaker 4: if there's any reason for.
Speaker 2: Hope, it's that this raises the question what will the
Speaker 2: White House do now? As of Thursday morning, the US
Speaker 2: had signed an open letter with sixteen other countries calling
Speaker 2: for Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire deal that
Speaker 2: would release hostages from the group of countries.
Speaker 4: It's hard to see areas where President Binen could really
Speaker 4: exert additional pressure here. He used the power of the
Speaker 4: billy pulpit that all presidents had and signed himself on
Speaker 4: to this proposal. And so I think we'll continue to
Speaker 4: hear from the President over the next two weeks. He's
Speaker 4: got a series of meetings with foreign leaders. The eightieth
Speaker 4: anniversary of D Day is an opportunity for him to
Speaker 4: talk about the world order and also, of course the
Speaker 4: history of World War Two, which is link an excerpt
Speaker 4: lead with the creation of Israel. And I think he'll
Speaker 4: try to summon as much momentum as he can. But realistically,
Speaker 4: you know what, it seemed like a window of opportunity
Speaker 4: here is now seeming to shut close.
Speaker 2: But Biden will face geopolitical and domestic consequences if the
Speaker 2: war drags on and nothing changes, I waited.
Speaker 4: Into an issue that's been a real labatross for the president.
Speaker 4: I think signaled how badly the White House wants this
Speaker 4: deal to come together. It's been a real dividing point,
Speaker 4: and one headed into the November's election that could cost
Speaker 4: the president in states like Michigan and Minnesota that he
Speaker 4: won very narrowly and have a young electorate, an Arab
Speaker 4: American electorate, and we saw in some of the primaries
Speaker 4: that big chunks of voters, despite the President running virtually
Speaker 4: unopposed in the Democratic primary, we're voting undecided or undeclared, and.
Speaker 1: So that's a real coalition issue. To some extent, this.
Speaker 4: Is already going to be sort of a central part
Speaker 4: of Joe Biden's legacy. I think that he is going
Speaker 4: to be remembered for.
Speaker 1: His steadfast support for Israel if the.
Speaker 4: Region descends into even more violence, even more carnage. Not
Speaker 4: only is it going to be come or remain a
Speaker 4: domestic political issue, which we've already seen, but it's going
Speaker 4: to demand his attention and it's not going to be
Speaker 4: something that he can turn away from to go, you know,
Speaker 4: do some rallies in swing states and inability to broker
Speaker 4: this deal, will, I think give his political opponents, and
Speaker 4: Donald Trump certainly has already has done this, the opportunity
Speaker 4: to argue that a different approach and more aggressive approach
Speaker 4: might have yielded different results, and.
Speaker 2: There are real human consequences to either or both sides
Speaker 2: backing away from this ceasefire proposal.
Speaker 4: We've talked a lot about the politics here, and I
Speaker 4: don't want to lose track of the sort of humanity
Speaker 4: of this and a real goal of I think the
Speaker 4: United States is addressing what has become a devastating humanitarian crisis,
Speaker 4: and the support for Israel through their campaign has had
Speaker 4: the unintended but real effect of tying the US to
Speaker 4: their role in providing arms that devastated lots of Gaza
Speaker 4: and has created that crisis. As a turn, the US
Speaker 4: has been isolated, So there's a diplomatic costs to not
Speaker 4: screen a deal.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to The Big Take DC podcast from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. I'm Salaia Mosen. This episode was produced by
Speaker 2: Julia Press. It was mixed by Blake Maples and fact
Speaker 2: checked by Audreyan Atapia. It was edited by Aaron Edwards
Speaker 2: and Nick Wadams. Wendy Benjaminson and Elizabeth Ponso provide editorial direction.
Speaker 2: Naomi Shaven and Kim Gettelson are senior producers. Nicole Beemsterbower
Speaker 2: is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
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Speaker 6: Mm hmm