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Speaker 2: And the Eastern Mediterranean. Ethan Browner, iconic at the New
Speaker 2: York Times and our Israeli Bureau chief and studio with
Speaker 2: US today. Admiral Bullen, thirteenth Joint chiefs of Staff, was
Speaker 2: piercing yesterday with us. He was just brutal about moving
Speaker 2: away from the Pentagon Dance and saying America is prepared
Speaker 2: in your Tel Aviv and in the greater levant up
Speaker 2: to Airdawan and Donda Lcci. Is there a perception of
Speaker 2: an America military that is failed or diminished.
Speaker 3: It's a great question. Tom.
Speaker 4: It's nice to see both you and Paul in person.
Speaker 3: I would say there is.
Speaker 5: There is definitely a sense that.
Speaker 3: Also that they feel that they can't rely on the
Speaker 3: United States.
Speaker 5: Now, you know, there's plenty to talk about about who
Speaker 5: can rely on whom and who we'd like to rely on.
Speaker 5: But the sense in the region is that a Israel
Speaker 5: has become unchained and out of control, and that the
Speaker 5: US is behind it and not doing its job to
Speaker 5: force it to stop attacking and to force a greater
Speaker 5: sense of peace regionally.
Speaker 3: That is, certainly the people of.
Speaker 2: Israel want to be forced. I think of Robert Caplan's work,
Speaker 2: my Book of the Year a couple of years ago,
Speaker 2: the Loom of time from Morocco over to Persia. Does
Speaker 2: Israel want to be forced south the America?
Speaker 5: So my first answer had to do with, actually, everyone
Speaker 5: except Israel, and now for we're talk talking about Israel,
Speaker 5: it's split. The government and those who support it absolutely
Speaker 5: do not want to be forced. And those who oppose
Speaker 5: the government's policies and who'd like it to stop its
Speaker 5: attack in Gaza and to reach out to the Saudis
Speaker 5: and so on, are praying that this government in the
Speaker 5: United States will force its hand.
Speaker 6: Yes, it seems like not just in the Middle East,
Speaker 6: in other parts of the world. President Trump is at
Speaker 6: a point now where he's kind of washing his hands
Speaker 6: and saying, you guys, maybe Europe, for Ukraine, maybe just
Speaker 6: the reason you guys take care of it.
Speaker 3: We're kind of done here.
Speaker 6: Is that a feeling that's in the Middle East as well.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that it does seem that way.
Speaker 5: It feels from that President Trump is someone who likes
Speaker 5: to make big pronouncements and expect that the words will
Speaker 5: create reality, and when they don't, he acts as if
Speaker 5: they do.
Speaker 3: We'll have to see what's going on right now.
Speaker 5: I mean, we're here him saying, well, we're about to
Speaker 5: end this war in Gaza any minute. We've got all
Speaker 5: kinds of plans for peace, and the hostages must come
Speaker 5: home or they'll be hell to pay.
Speaker 3: And nothing's changed so far.
Speaker 6: I mean, is there a Hammas with which Israel could
Speaker 6: really negotiate something meaningful? Is there Hamas left in terms
Speaker 6: of real leadership?
Speaker 5: So there is a Hammas leadership, But that's not the
Speaker 5: same thing as saying that it's an organization that you
Speaker 5: could negotiate with on terms that mean anything to Israel.
Speaker 5: The two sides of irreconcilable views of one another. The
Speaker 5: Hamas argument is will give you back your hostages if
Speaker 5: you get out of Gaza entirely and leave us in power,
Speaker 5: and Israel is saying, the only thing that matters to
Speaker 5: us is to get you out of power, so nothing
Speaker 5: will be worth the price of leaving you in power
Speaker 5: so that those hostages who remain are on.
Speaker 4: The table to some extent.
Speaker 3: And I think.
Speaker 5: That this government is something conclusion, that is Honyau government
Speaker 5: that it can only get out.
Speaker 3: So many of these hostages and now it needs to
Speaker 3: go to war.
Speaker 2: Ethan Bronner with this driving our Levon coverage of course
Speaker 2: out of Israel. He's Israel bureau chief for Bloomberg. We
Speaker 2: welcome all of you across the nation. I'm embarrassed to
Speaker 2: say I literally got a wave off the Jacob Frenkel
Speaker 2: at Jackson Hall, the former governor at the Bank of Israel.
Speaker 2: He's a giant in American economics, the stewardship for JP
Speaker 2: Morgan International, for mister Diamond. So right now, Jacob Frenkel,
Speaker 2: who is my Israeli Loadstone, you and him are having
Speaker 2: a beverage of your choice at the Colony Hotel in
Speaker 2: the courtyard. This goes back to like before Churchill. It's
Speaker 2: like wicked famous. It's like I've never done this. I
Speaker 2: want to be Keithan Bronner, Jacob Frenkel in the courtyard.
Speaker 2: Is this Israel? The Israel? The former governor of the
Speaker 2: Bank Israel knows does Jacob Frenkel understand the Yahoo Experiment.
Speaker 4: I mean, it is a very different country.
Speaker 5: Israel has grown much more religious, much more nationalistic, much
Speaker 5: less generous in its attitude toward its neighbors. And of
Speaker 5: course that's partly to do with the exceptional trauma that
Speaker 5: October seventh and twenty three caused the Israeli so Frankel,
Speaker 5: who I've also known but I can't I don't want
Speaker 5: to speak in his name, understands that trauma. But he
Speaker 5: also believes it's time to do something about it in
Speaker 5: a way that will bring the region behind Israel. And
Speaker 5: this government believes that the only way forward is to
Speaker 5: show military strength and others will eventually come around.
Speaker 2: My hallmark with Israeli diplomacy is a million years ago.
Speaker 2: Lisa I threw a snowball at Golden my ear's car
Speaker 2: when I was like eight years old or something. She
Speaker 2: was a junior officer of the Israeli Experiment then, and
Speaker 2: you know, it was a privilege to grow up in Rochester,
Speaker 2: New York with a huge Jewish contingent. Great from where
Speaker 2: you are, how does Israel perceive the legislative branch of
Speaker 2: the United States of America? Is it traditional Senate House
Speaker 2: politics in Washington with Israel or is it shattered?
Speaker 3: It's shattering, and there is a concern, especially.
Speaker 5: The Democratic side, that it has lost its support for Israel.
Speaker 5: It has only the republic ends and the Democrats that
Speaker 5: I forget which what number, but a surprising number of
Speaker 5: them voted to pose an impose an arms embargo for
Speaker 5: offensive arms toward Gaza, and that's they're quite worried about that.
Speaker 2: I got to get this question in Paul's two important
Speaker 2: side from Long Island emails in would President Harris do
Speaker 2: anything different?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 5: I think she would have done many things differently. I
Speaker 5: don't think she would have unleashed Israel. Now, I think
Speaker 5: the more interesting question is what Israel have done what
Speaker 5: it wanted to do anyway, And I think it's a
Speaker 5: decent possibility that it would have been nearly as militarily
Speaker 5: aggressive as it has been because it came to the
Speaker 5: conclusion that it had no choice.
Speaker 4: Whether or not you agree with that, but.
Speaker 3: I'm certain that president a President Kamala Harris would have
Speaker 3: acted very differently towards this government.
Speaker 6: Yes, how secure is mister Netanyahu in his position here today?
Speaker 6: It seems like the tide continues to turn against Israel broadly.
Speaker 6: I mean, I was just traveling on holiday through Italy
Speaker 6: and I saw so many Palestinian flags hanging from windows
Speaker 6: across the country. I didn't expect that. How secure is
Speaker 6: he in his position?
Speaker 5: I mean, the two aren't necessarily contradictory, although eventually they
Speaker 5: could become. The world has decided that Israel is out
Speaker 5: of control, and that's it needs to be sanctioned and
Speaker 5: it needs to accept a Palestinian state. The Prime Minister
Speaker 5: in Israel has a majority of the population on his
Speaker 5: side opposed to a Palestinian state, and generally in what
Speaker 5: he's doing in terms of Hamas. It's close. But I
Speaker 5: would say he's in no way in danger for the
Speaker 5: next year when there has to be an election, and
Speaker 5: he could win again in the next election.
Speaker 2: So democracy is still in place and he could win again.
Speaker 3: Just that's correct, That's correct.
Speaker 5: I mean a lot of people are fed up with him,
Speaker 5: but they also have this sense that they need someone
Speaker 5: like him, that they who is and he, after all,
Speaker 5: had an enormous number of victories last year militarily against
Speaker 5: Iran and against his belog and this week.
Speaker 2: Of Jewish celebration in America, the simplistic analysis we have.
Speaker 2: And I'm as guilty as this as anyone is Reform
Speaker 2: conservative Orthodox. I know it's way more sophisticated ethan Browner.
Speaker 2: In your Israel, who do you study within the religion
Speaker 2: of Israel? Is the tip point to netnya democracy?
Speaker 7: The tip point meaning with that will cause to end.
Speaker 7: I'll let it go there, cause it to end, or
Speaker 7: cause it.
Speaker 4: To I see.
Speaker 3: I mean the Orthodoxy is on the rise in Israel.
Speaker 5: The number of kids in first grade in Israel in
Speaker 5: religious schools now outnumber those in secular for the first
Speaker 5: time ever in the seventy seven years of the country's history.
Speaker 3: So they have six or seven children.
Speaker 5: Each, the ultra Orthodox and then the national Religious have four,
Speaker 5: and they are on the way to essentially running the
Speaker 5: country in the next twenty years.
Speaker 2: Would it Zak have been recognize this modern Israel?
Speaker 3: He would, he would weep.
Speaker 6: So I probably speak for most Americans my age, like
Speaker 6: we've been living this our whole life.
Speaker 3: We've been observing it a whole.
Speaker 6: Life, and I think I speak for a lot of people.
Speaker 6: I have no idea how a solution even comes about.
Speaker 4: I share your sense of wonder.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's almost.
Speaker 6: Like we there's nothing we can do.
Speaker 3: Really, it's true.
Speaker 5: I mean part of it is as Americans, we have
Speaker 5: this roller verse leaves notion that you know, a solution
Speaker 5: is there and we're going to find.
Speaker 3: It and we're going to put it into place.
Speaker 5: And actually, bad stuff and unpleasant stuff and complicated stuff
Speaker 5: goes on for generations. And I think that's what we're facing.
Speaker 5: And I also think that we in our age group
Speaker 5: grew up at a time of a sense of international
Speaker 5: order which started to fall apart in the last twenty years,
Speaker 5: and the world has returned to its normal.
Speaker 3: Arc of history, which is chaos.
Speaker 2: One question, then, who in the continent of Europe when
Speaker 2: the leaders speak, does Ethan Browner listened to went Crow
Speaker 2: with all the Dreyfusts and all the heritage of the
Speaker 2: French in Syria and Arabia? Is it a different country?
Speaker 2: Who are you studying right now?
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, in Europe?
Speaker 2: In Europe?
Speaker 5: Yes, I mean I think that Europe is also at
Speaker 5: wits end about what to do about itself. I mean,
Speaker 5: none of these countries is well off economically, and I
Speaker 5: think that Macron is trying through this to return France
Speaker 5: to an important position diplomatically and globally.
Speaker 4: And I don't think it's going to work.
Speaker 2: This has been a treat. Come more off, try ethan
Speaker 2: broader with this. Usually we speak from his thr illness
Speaker 2: that rushed five or six minutes. This has been a
Speaker 2: wonderful treat. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming
Speaker 2: up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
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Speaker 2: We have win thin with us today. Chief conn is
Speaker 2: a bank of NASA. He didn't know this was happening.
Speaker 2: But with his Columbia cred and all his other academics,
Speaker 2: I can't think of anyone. T Taylor Rule John Taylor
Speaker 2: Stanford t a wild on the Bloomberg I've got a
Speaker 2: complete layout of the tailor rule plus the adjustment for
Speaker 2: policy inertia. That's like the Toronto Blue Jays have policy
Speaker 2: inertia right now. I got seven plug ins on the
Speaker 2: tailor rule. I got another plug getting on the policy inertia.
Speaker 2: How squishy is a tailor rule that Stephen Myron's talking about.
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, first of all, thanks, thanks so much for
Speaker 8: having me. It's always a pleasure. I think I got
Speaker 8: a somewhat backhand compliment.
Speaker 2: I am.
Speaker 8: I haven't accused of being a jargon free nerd in
Speaker 8: the past. I'm very proud of that, and.
Speaker 2: We're going to try to do that. I mean, there's
Speaker 2: a lot of mathematics going on here, but a plug
Speaker 2: in is a variable equation where there's a lot of mystery.
Speaker 8: So so I think Paul Samerson had one of the
Speaker 8: best posts and economics.
Speaker 2: It's it's not exact science.
Speaker 8: There's more art to it than one would one expect
Speaker 8: than one would expect.
Speaker 2: Discovernor Myron know that. I think every economist knows that.
Speaker 8: Any economics who does not meant that is simply lying
Speaker 8: because we know that things are uncertain. You know, neoclassical
Speaker 8: economists it assumed perfect rationally rational markets.
Speaker 2: We know that's not true.
Speaker 8: We know behavior economics, irrational markets, those are all really
Speaker 8: what's what's driving to me a modern economic thought of
Speaker 8: this century. And so there's so much art into it,
Speaker 8: which is you know to me, you know you want
Speaker 8: to bet the house on something that's you know, such
Speaker 8: a so subjective.
Speaker 2: Within thin with this in ten minutes Myrone with John Ferrell,
Speaker 2: looking forward to that conversation. Okay, I'm going to go
Speaker 2: to the output gap. I resurrected out of conservative Richmond
Speaker 2: Hrzel paper from years ago, vamping Anthony or Finet's who
Speaker 2: was Wonderful, and it basically said, would everybody get a
Speaker 2: dose of humility? Do you detect here a certitude on
Speaker 2: the part of Trump economics? It's way out of.
Speaker 8: Line, yes, And I think we've seen that time and
Speaker 8: time again. And he's certain that tariffs are great for
Speaker 8: the nation. He's certain that mainful conscious solve everything. So
Speaker 8: you know, to me, as the biggest thing about being
Speaker 8: in a commoss is really to be humble and realize
Speaker 8: that the world is very complicated. You know, many of
Speaker 8: these observations that Princess Myron and I was making, it's
Speaker 8: in to me a very partial like living world. Say okay,
Speaker 8: we're nikas policy, it's gonna fix this. What I believe
Speaker 8: that they don't take in care into a count of
Speaker 8: was the really general equilibrium portion of it, What other
Speaker 8: secondary and tertiary impact of these policies and within the
Speaker 8: general equilibrium framework. And that is what I think is
Speaker 8: missing in a lot of the policy makers in this administration.
Speaker 2: Again, it's very humbling.
Speaker 6: So what is your view of this US economy here?
Speaker 6: I mean a lot of folks say, hey, we're still
Speaker 6: in good shape, don't worry about it. Other people say, boy,
Speaker 6: if you look underneath, whether it's a labor economy, see
Speaker 6: some areas of weakness.
Speaker 2: What's your view?
Speaker 8: Yeah, So, Paul, that's there literally a million dollar question
Speaker 8: right now is how what is what's really going on
Speaker 8: with US economy? Because out of that you can draw, well,
Speaker 8: what's the FED going to do? So facing we started
Speaker 8: this year and very strong. We came in almost three
Speaker 8: percent last year, mentum strong. All of a sudden we
Speaker 8: got hit with uh deflationary sort of impulses. I remember
Speaker 8: this is the difference between Trump one oh and chuoh. Back
Speaker 8: in Trump one he put in the inflationary sort of
Speaker 8: steamless first, tax cuts, the regulation and immigration next, and
Speaker 8: we got hit with those are the sort of deflationary
Speaker 8: stuff right after bad. So we are losing momentum. There's
Speaker 8: no doubt the job market, the lot of labor market
Speaker 8: is cra I think it's it's it's I think it's
Speaker 8: going to hit us more than we've seen in the
Speaker 8: next few months. You know, we've had delay, you know
Speaker 8: because of the sort of all the delays the tariffs,
Speaker 8: then the companies didn't pass on the tariffs where the
Speaker 8: companies didn't make adjustments, and now we're going to see
Speaker 8: that I think coming in forced the next couple of months.
Speaker 2: Commercial free for Global Wall Street, win Thin, the Bank
Speaker 2: of Nanessa into Governor Myron Jonathan Farrell speaking of Stephen
Speaker 2: Myron here in about eight minutes Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 6: So when terrorists that was for the first six months
Speaker 6: of the year. That's all we talked about. That's Taylor rule.
Speaker 3: That is not stay a little. It's kind of going
Speaker 3: to the back burner.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 6: We've got equity markets setting new all time highs every day. Yes,
Speaker 6: the dollar's still low, it has not recovered. But where
Speaker 6: where are we terriffs? Is it in fact a drag
Speaker 6: on this economy? Is it in fact inflationary?
Speaker 2: We Yeah, So I mentioned this before that the delay
Speaker 2: is what I think it's key.
Speaker 8: Remember, I think we saw some some of the earnings reports,
Speaker 8: a lot of the companies were eating the terrifs because say,
Speaker 8: we don't where they end up going. We got certainty
Speaker 8: in August, and I think all of a sudden, you're
Speaker 8: getting this pass to And this is what Chair Powell
Speaker 8: and some of the other sort of hawks are afraid
Speaker 8: those is that, Okay, we've got some tariff certainty. Now
Speaker 8: we're going to start seeing a lot more pass to.
Speaker 8: I mean, listen, that's that's what companies do. They were
Speaker 8: sort of on pause while the uncertain was going on.
Speaker 8: So we should see the risk. We see high inflation
Speaker 8: that's going to hit real incomes. We're seeing labor market crack.
Speaker 8: So again I think, to me, the downs I agree
Speaker 8: with with Chair Powell at the downside we start, I think,
Speaker 8: are sort of the.
Speaker 2: Predominant right now, and that is focusing on within Thinn
Speaker 2: with this this morning. Was that great yesterday talking to
Speaker 2: one of the founders of Oracle Sudrey. Yeah, Larry Ellison, Yep, yep, yep.
Speaker 2: That was really really good, good conversation at the Plaza
Speaker 2: Hotel Bloomberg surveying us today and we thank them for
Speaker 2: their support for a bunch of by Oracle attention growing businesses.
Speaker 2: Oracle is offering to cut your current cloud bill in
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Speaker 2: Do that at Oracle dot com slash Bloomberg, Oracle dot
Speaker 2: com slash Bloomberg. Okay, I'm gonna get mathy. The output
Speaker 2: gap was within the Taylor rule. Herzel was mental about
Speaker 2: it twenty five years ago. I'm mental about it today.
Speaker 2: The output gap is the actual GDP, and then you
Speaker 2: take away some win thing calculation, a potential GDP which
Speaker 2: is made up with crystals and pyramids, an incense. Okay, great,
Speaker 2: somebody on the show yesterday said we're popping five or
Speaker 2: six percent nomenal GDP. We're doing two and a half
Speaker 2: three percent whatever GDP. Potential GDP is some grim number
Speaker 2: that you guys come up with. The output gap is
Speaker 2: nowhere near a Myron rate regime, is.
Speaker 8: It, No, I would say unquickly, we are not. Again,
Speaker 8: we were coming off several years of two three percent growth.
Speaker 2: I mean, Richard Claren is aged over this. I'm kidding.
Speaker 3: So look again, I'll circle back.
Speaker 8: You know, I think the really one of the issues
Speaker 8: I have with with sort of academic you know, constructs.
Speaker 8: The economist, it's whatever assumption you make. You can make
Speaker 8: whatever sumption you want to get the results you want.
Speaker 8: I think that was to me the sort of disheartening
Speaker 8: thing I found out in writing my thesis and talking
Speaker 8: to my colleagues is that.
Speaker 2: You build a model, and you make you building.
Speaker 8: Allso these sorts of assumptions, and if you don't get
Speaker 8: the results you want, then well you kind of tweak
Speaker 8: some assumptions you kind of get what you want. And
Speaker 8: it sounds very cynical, but that's sort of I think
Speaker 8: the way the world works, and that works with policy
Speaker 8: makers too.
Speaker 2: They're they're seeing what they want to see, you know.
Speaker 8: To me, look the output gap, the tailor rule, the
Speaker 8: naturate of unemployment. These are all sorts of constructs, academic
Speaker 8: constructs that we posso makers want to sort of use
Speaker 8: as guideposts. But there's no no sure answer. To me,
Speaker 8: there's sort of clues to what's going on in the cold,
Speaker 8: but there's no one thing you can look at and say, hey,
Speaker 8: this is what we need to do. So, you know,
Speaker 8: Governor Myron is to me speaking to an audience one
Speaker 8: who wants lower rates.
Speaker 2: Chair Powell is tracket. Nobody agrees with him, is that
Speaker 2: what you're saying?
Speaker 8: Well, I think that many people within his administration agree
Speaker 8: with him, Paula.
Speaker 2: I just took the tailor rule, yep, and I just
Speaker 2: plugged in as a complete hack and amateur two or
Speaker 2: three jakes. I'm not even gonna bore our audience, so
Speaker 2: people drive off the road in the Garden State Parkway.
Speaker 2: And I modeled a tailor rule that is Steve myron
Speaker 2: ish okay by making assumptions forward, which I'm sorry. It's
Speaker 2: like Stevie. It's like a Stevie Nick song. They just
Speaker 2: they just remastered Buckingham Nix. It's like Crystal, you know,
Speaker 2: Crystal Pyramids and all that they were singing about thirty
Speaker 2: years ago. Go So what's the magic number? Tom?
Speaker 8: I'm curious, what's the magic When you get out of that,
Speaker 8: I came up.
Speaker 2: I lowered the neutral real rate. Listen to him, what
Speaker 2: is this to do? It was a pop quiz with
Speaker 2: doctor Thin. I lowered the neutral rate. I lowered the
Speaker 2: inflation target, and critically, I know I lowered Neyhrew Lisa
Speaker 2: Nehru's not the jacket you're buying for your daughter for
Speaker 2: the fall prem I lowered Neyrow. Okay, I came up
Speaker 2: with a I don't know, doctor thinn I came up
Speaker 2: the number that's like four rate cuts.
Speaker 3: There you go.
Speaker 6: You know, I like it.
Speaker 2: It's all smoking mirror. Yeah, you know.
Speaker 8: But again you'd be plugging really the most, you know,
Speaker 8: sort of the numbers that you wanted to see to
Speaker 8: get the lower rate.
Speaker 2: You make up your numbers. This is great. John Taylor,
Speaker 2: who was one of my biggest supporters, Professor Taylor Stanford,
Speaker 2: would say exactly what doctor finn Is would say, Paul,
Speaker 2: A little humilities in order. Paul saved the interview.
Speaker 8: Please listen, if you're an economist on Wall Street, and
Speaker 8: if you don't have humility, do something wrong, because you know,
Speaker 8: I'm wrong almost as many times as I'm right. It's
Speaker 8: a humble profession. I mean, so many things that can
Speaker 8: go wrong.
Speaker 2: Here's humility. John Taylor dresses up as a raisin for
Speaker 2: freshman economics at Stanford. He goes the end of the
Speaker 2: lecture hall dressed up, you know, to put some humility
Speaker 2: into it.
Speaker 3: That'll work, And that's what you do that'll work.
Speaker 6: Hey, here's something we don't talk about, and I don't
Speaker 6: think of like twenty or thirty years, are we back
Speaker 6: in the business of billiant ladin America?
Speaker 3: What's going on with the ARGD I know, I'm dying
Speaker 3: to ask somebody that's just stuff for a living. It's
Speaker 3: like my youth.
Speaker 2: It's amazing.
Speaker 8: So when I first started my career and we had
Speaker 8: the tequila crisis in Mexico and it was, boy, it
Speaker 8: was real welcome to you know, welcome to the machine.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 8: It was really an eye open experience. And I feel
Speaker 8: since then, we've had so many crisis by the Asian crisis,
Speaker 8: you know, Argentina default.
Speaker 2: Several times already.
Speaker 8: So I look, to me, this is this is politics
Speaker 8: sort of overwhelming economics, because let's face it, Argentina isn't
Speaker 8: always been a basket case.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 8: They they just got an IMF dealers in April, just
Speaker 8: the third im I deal since twenty eighteen to twenty
Speaker 8: third overall, and six months later the running out of
Speaker 8: cash and coming to the US for help.
Speaker 2: So to me, that's a pretty shaky bet. What I
Speaker 2: think is.
Speaker 8: Going on is, you know, President trumpet is administration and
Speaker 8: views Argentina's an ally They're not structurally important. Look back
Speaker 8: in nineteen ninety three Mexico US very economic ties, financial
Speaker 8: ties and commercial bank loans, et cetera. Sure you can
Speaker 8: make a big reason for the US to get involved.
Speaker 8: Argentina is really stuff, you know, sort of flyespack from
Speaker 8: the US radar. They've been a sort of prior for years.
Speaker 8: We're only kind of going back into it and all
Speaker 8: of a sudden blowing up again. So it's another humbling.
Speaker 8: We remind you that to those of em that you
Speaker 8: know that history was it often rhymes right, that never
Speaker 8: appears often rhymes winstin.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: The Eastern Mediterranean, Ethan Browner, iconic at the New York
Speaker 2: Times and our Israeli Bureau Chief and Studio where this today,
Speaker 2: Admiral Bullen, thirteenth Joint chiefs of Staff was piercing yesterday
Speaker 2: with us. He was just brutal about moving away from
Speaker 2: the Pentagon dance and saying America is prepared in your
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv and in the greater levant up to Airdawan
Speaker 2: and down to LCCI. Is there a perception of an
Speaker 2: American military that has failed or diminished.
Speaker 3: It's a great question.
Speaker 4: Tom, It's nice to see both you and Paul in person.
Speaker 3: I would say there is.
Speaker 5: There is definitely a sense also that they feel that
Speaker 5: they can.
Speaker 4: Rely on the United States.
Speaker 5: Now, you know, there's plenty to talk about about who
Speaker 5: can rely on whom and.
Speaker 3: Who we'd like to rely on.
Speaker 5: But the sense in the region is that a Israel
Speaker 5: has become unchained and out of control, and that the
Speaker 5: US is behind it and not doing its job to
Speaker 5: force it to stop attacking and to force a greater
Speaker 5: sense of peace regionally.
Speaker 3: That is, certainly the.
Speaker 2: People of Israel want to be forced. I think of
Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan's work, my Book of the Year a couple
Speaker 2: of years ago, the Loom of Time from Morocco over
Speaker 2: to Persia. Does Israel want to be forced South America?
Speaker 5: So my first answer had to do with, actually everyone
Speaker 5: except Israel, and now if we're talking about Israel. It's
Speaker 5: split the government and those who support it absolutely do
Speaker 5: not want to be forced. And those who oppose the
Speaker 5: government's policies and who'd like it to stop its attack
Speaker 5: in Gaza and to reach out to the Saudis and
Speaker 5: so on, are praying that this government in the United
Speaker 5: States will force its hand.
Speaker 6: Yes, it seems like not just in the Middle East,
Speaker 6: but other parts of the world. President Trump is at
Speaker 6: a point now where he's kind of washing his hands
Speaker 6: and saying, you guys, maybe Europe, for Ukraine, maybe just
Speaker 6: the reason you guys take care of it.
Speaker 3: We're kind of done here.
Speaker 6: Is that a feeling that's in the Middle East as well?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that it does seem that way.
Speaker 5: It feels from that President Trump is someone who likes
Speaker 5: to make big pronouncements and expect that the words will
Speaker 5: create reality, and when they don't, he acts as if
Speaker 5: they do. We'll have to see what's going on right now.
Speaker 5: I mean, we're hear him saying, well, We're about to
Speaker 5: end this war in Gaza any minute. We've got all
Speaker 5: kinds of plans for peace, and the hostages must come home,
Speaker 5: where they'll be hell to pay and nothing's changed so far.
Speaker 6: I mean, is there a Hammas with which Israel could
Speaker 6: really negotiate something meaningful? Is there Hamas left in terms
Speaker 6: of real leadership?
Speaker 5: So there is a Hamas leadership, But that's not the
Speaker 5: same thing as saying that it's an organization that you
Speaker 5: could negotiate with on terms that mean anything to Israel.
Speaker 5: The two sides have irreconcilable views of one another. The
Speaker 5: Hamas argument is will give you back your hostages if
Speaker 5: you get out of Gaza entirely and leave us in power,
Speaker 5: And Israel is saying the only thing that matters to
Speaker 5: us is to get you out of power, so nothing
Speaker 5: will be worth the price of leaving you in power,
Speaker 5: so that those hostages who will remain are.
Speaker 3: On the table to some extent.
Speaker 5: And I think that this government is something conclusion that
Speaker 5: is Honyau government that it can only get out.
Speaker 3: So many of these hostages and now it needs to
Speaker 3: go to war.
Speaker 2: Ethan Brodner with us driving our Levon coverage, of course
Speaker 2: out of Israel. He's Israel bureau chief for Bloomberg. We
Speaker 2: welcome all of you across the nation. I'm embarrassed to
Speaker 2: say I literally got a wave off Jacob Frenkel at
Speaker 2: Jackson Hall, the former governor at the Bank of Israel.
Speaker 2: He's a giant in American economics, the stewardship for JP
Speaker 2: Morgan International, for mister Diamond. So right now, Jacob Frenkel,
Speaker 2: who's my Israeli load stone? You and him are having
Speaker 2: a beverage of your choice at the Colony hotel in
Speaker 2: the courtyard. This goes back to like before Churchill, It's
Speaker 2: like wicked famous. It's like I've never done this. I
Speaker 2: want to be useful to runner Jacob Frankel in the courtyard.
Speaker 2: Is this Israel? The Israel, the former governor of the
Speaker 2: Bank Israel knows. Does Jacob Frankel understand the Yahoo experiment?
Speaker 4: No, I mean it is a very different country.
Speaker 5: Israel has grown much more religious, much more nationalistic, much
Speaker 5: less generous in its attitude toward its neighbors.
Speaker 3: And of course that's partly to do with the exceptional.
Speaker 5: Trauma that October seventh and twenty three caused the Israeli
Speaker 5: So Frankel, who I've also known but I can't I
Speaker 5: don't want to speak in his name, understands that trauma.
Speaker 5: But he also believes it's time to do something about
Speaker 5: it in a way that will bring the region behind Israel.
Speaker 5: And this government believes that the only way forward is
Speaker 5: to show military strength and others will eventually come.
Speaker 2: My hallmark with Israeli diplomacy is a million years ago
Speaker 2: Lisa I threw a snowball at Golden Myyar's car when
Speaker 2: I was like eight years old or something. She was
Speaker 2: a junior officer of the Israeli Experiment then, and you know,
Speaker 2: it was a privilege to grow up in a roch
Speaker 2: to New York with a huge Jewish contingent. Great from
Speaker 2: where you are, how does Israel perceive the legislative branch
Speaker 2: of the United States of America? Is it traditional Senate
Speaker 2: House politics in Washington with Israel? Or is it shattered?
Speaker 5: It's shattering, and there is a concern, especially the Democratic side,
Speaker 5: that it has lost its support for Israel. It has
Speaker 5: only the republic ends of the Democrats that I forget
Speaker 5: which what number, but a surprising number of them voted
Speaker 5: to pose an impose an arms embargo for offensive arms
Speaker 5: toward Gaza.
Speaker 3: And that's they're quite worried about that.
Speaker 2: Going to get this question in Paul's two important sigh
Speaker 2: from long is Lett emails in would President Harris do
Speaker 2: anything different?
Speaker 5: Oh, I think she would have done many things differently.
Speaker 5: I don't think she would have unleashed Israel.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 5: I think the more interesting question is would Israel have
Speaker 5: done what it wanted to do anyway? And I think
Speaker 5: it's a decent possibility that it would have been nearly
Speaker 5: as militarily aggressive as it has been because it came
Speaker 5: to the conclusion that it had no choice.
Speaker 4: Whether or not you agree with that.
Speaker 3: But I'm certain that President President Kamala.
Speaker 5: Harris would have acted very differently towards this government.
Speaker 6: Yes, how secure is mister Nettan Yahou in his position here?
Speaker 3: Today?
Speaker 6: It seems like the tide continues to turn against Israel broadly.
Speaker 6: I mean, I was just traveling on holiday through Italy
Speaker 6: and I saw so many Palestinian flags hanging from windows
Speaker 6: across the country. I didn't expect that. How secure is
Speaker 6: he in his position?
Speaker 5: I mean, the two aren't necessarily contradictory, although eventually they
Speaker 5: could become.
Speaker 3: The world has decided that Israel is out of.
Speaker 5: Control and that it needs to be sanctioned and it
Speaker 5: needs to accept a Palestinian state. The Prime Minister in
Speaker 5: Israel has a majority of the population on his side
Speaker 5: opposed to a Palestinian state, and generally in what he's
Speaker 5: doing in terms of Hamas.
Speaker 3: It's close.
Speaker 5: But I would say he's in no way in danger
Speaker 5: for the next year when there has to be an election,
Speaker 5: and he could win again in.
Speaker 4: The next election.
Speaker 2: So democracy is still in place and he could win again.
Speaker 4: Just that's correct, That's correct.
Speaker 5: I mean a lot of people are fed up with him,
Speaker 5: but they also have this sense that they need someone
Speaker 5: like him, that they who is and he, after all,
Speaker 5: had an enormous number of victories last year militarily against Iranan,
Speaker 5: against his.
Speaker 2: Belog in this week of Jewish celebration in America, the
Speaker 2: simplistic analysis we have and I'm as guilty of this
Speaker 2: as anyone is reform conservative Orthodox. I know it's way
Speaker 2: more sophisticated ethan Browner in your Israel. Who do you
Speaker 2: study within the religion of Israel? Is the tip point
Speaker 2: to netnya democracy.
Speaker 7: The tip point meaning with that will cause to end.
Speaker 7: I'll let it go there, cause it to end, or
Speaker 7: cause it to sustain.
Speaker 3: I see, I mean the Orthodoxy is on the rise
Speaker 3: in Israel.
Speaker 5: The number of kids in first grade in Israel, in
Speaker 5: religious schools now outnumber those in secular for the first
Speaker 5: time ever in the seventy seven years of the country's history.
Speaker 3: So they have six or seven children.
Speaker 5: Each, the ultra Orthodox and then the National Religious have four,
Speaker 5: and they are on the way to essentially.
Speaker 4: Running the country in the next one year.
Speaker 2: Would it Zak have been recognize this modern Israel?
Speaker 3: He would, he would weep.
Speaker 6: So I probably speak for most Americans my age, like
Speaker 6: we've been living this our whole life. We've been observing
Speaker 6: it a whole life, and I think I speak for
Speaker 6: a lot of people. I have no idea how a
Speaker 6: solution even comes about there.
Speaker 4: I share your sense of wonder. I mean it's.
Speaker 6: Almost like we there's nothing we can do.
Speaker 3: Really, it's true.
Speaker 5: I mean part of it is as Americans, we have
Speaker 5: this roller verse leaves notion that you know, a solution
Speaker 5: is there and we're going to find it and we're
Speaker 5: going to put it into place. And actually, bad stuff
Speaker 5: and unpleasant stuff and complicated stuff goes on for generations,
Speaker 5: and I think that's what we're facing. And I also
Speaker 5: think that we and our age group grew up at
Speaker 5: a time of a sense of international order which started
Speaker 5: to fall apart in the last twenty years, and the
Speaker 5: world has returned to its normal arc of history, which
Speaker 5: is chaos.
Speaker 2: One question, then, who in the continent of Europe when
Speaker 2: the leaders speak, does East and Browner listen to went
Speaker 2: Crow with all the Dreyfists and all the heritage of
Speaker 2: the French in Syria and Arabia? Is it a different country?
Speaker 2: Who are you studying right now?
Speaker 5: I'm sorry Europe and Europe, yes, I mean I think
Speaker 5: that Europe is also.
Speaker 3: Wits end about what to do about itself.
Speaker 5: I mean, none of these countries is well off economically,
Speaker 5: and I think that Macron is trying through this to
Speaker 5: return France to an important position diplomatically and globally, and
Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to work.
Speaker 2: This has been a treat. Come more off, try ethan
Speaker 2: broader with us. Usually we speak from israel I Onnents.
Speaker 2: It rushed five or six minutes. This has been a
Speaker 2: wonderful treat, Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming
Speaker 2: up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: The newspapers, finally, the acclaim. She spent all morning three
Speaker 2: am working on this. What do you have, LISATAO?
Speaker 9: Okay, I'm taking you back to my childhood memories. The
Speaker 9: Mirriam Dictionary, the linen cover, going through it, Toby English papers,
Speaker 9: the tabs, trying to search it, a lick in the finger,
Speaker 9: you know all that.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay.
Speaker 9: So the last time the hardcover edition was updated was
Speaker 9: twenty two years ago. So words have been added, you know,
Speaker 9: to the website.
Speaker 3: But this is the first time.
Speaker 9: Yes, the twelfth edition, okay, because you have to add
Speaker 9: words like riz dad bought cold brew hard pass.
Speaker 2: I'm a huge folks, the digital app of Miriam Wester.
Speaker 2: Good morning, Springfield, Massachusetts. Thank you, thank you, Lisa. You
Speaker 2: know I have to buy that, Yes you do. I
Speaker 2: mean it's just the doorstep. Does anyone use a dictionary anymore?
Speaker 6: No?
Speaker 3: But no, apparently they're selling. They still sell a lot
Speaker 3: of these. They do.
Speaker 6: Every university has huge libraries.
Speaker 3: What do they do with I just study.
Speaker 9: Study, stew about it?
Speaker 2: What Steve Schwartzman did single handedly resurrecting his like what
Speaker 2: he did at the Frick, Schwartzman resurrected the New York
Speaker 2: Public Library. Now what now? What I mean?
Speaker 6: That was always my study hall, I always study at
Speaker 6: the library. But oh yeah, but then he did your
Speaker 6: research there too, So I don't know.
Speaker 3: Well I do.
Speaker 9: I take my I'm taking her, my daughter on the
Speaker 9: college tours and we go to each library. Each library
Speaker 9: there's just kids on laptop, so like, what are they doing?
Speaker 6: But I don't know.
Speaker 3: Gosh, oh yes I do. Okay.
Speaker 9: So Costco is opening its books after the close, okay,
Speaker 9: so ahead of it, we had some news at an
Speaker 9: increase in foot traffic. It was from a perk that
Speaker 9: they gave to the executive members. Visa me, okay, I'm executive.
Speaker 9: Sure you are full disclosure. So early this summer, what
Speaker 9: you basically yet is the stores open an hour earlier
Speaker 9: for you. And they're saying that people shoppers have been
Speaker 9: visiting more quickly and more often. So basically they're coming in,
Speaker 9: they're doing the things faster, so they're not filling the
Speaker 9: carts as much, okay, but they're coming back more.
Speaker 3: Are you doing that?
Speaker 2: No, she feels cars, cars and her kids can't see
Speaker 2: over the top of the stuff from there.
Speaker 9: But apparently it's working for them, so they're getting more
Speaker 9: if the.
Speaker 2: Top six hundred dollars yet at Costco.
Speaker 9: I just said normal, yeah, yeah, I did. It was
Speaker 9: kind of oof.
Speaker 6: That one hurt, but painfully what else to you?
Speaker 3: All Right?
Speaker 9: So Financial Times they have this interesting look into the
Speaker 9: billion dollar quest to live beyond one hundred years old.
Speaker 9: All of these companies putting money into it. Okay, so
Speaker 9: researchers have been studying for years, but they say it
Speaker 9: kicked off in twenty twenty two. They had the launch
Speaker 9: of Alto's lab in twenty twenty two, three billion dollars
Speaker 9: of financial backing, so big money. It's still, you know,
Speaker 9: the highest profile longevity biotech, but now there's hundreds of
Speaker 9: other startups just like it that are trying to do
Speaker 9: the same thing. Big names back in it, like Sam
Speaker 9: Altman is really into this, and they just go into
Speaker 9: the money behind it. They're saying that it could be
Speaker 9: this huge jump, kind of like how weight loss drugs,
Speaker 9: like what they did the big boom of weight loss drugs,
Speaker 9: are saying longevity is going to be this next thing
Speaker 9: to come in.
Speaker 6: So I don't I mean give me eighty eighty good
Speaker 6: ones on the you.
Speaker 3: Don't what a hundred plus? No?
Speaker 2: No, I hate you for bringing up the Mirriam Webster thing.
Speaker 2: Oh I have to. I mean I'm a cute. I
Speaker 2: mean they've got it on their website right now. They
Speaker 2: got m dash. My mother used to do m dashes,
Speaker 2: which is like a long line.
Speaker 3: Okay, to this day, I don't know how.
Speaker 2: To use it.
Speaker 9: You know, you know what you have to order to
Speaker 9: Taylor Swift's vinyl album.
Speaker 3: Yep, there you go.
Speaker 2: I don't do the vinyl.
Speaker 9: You have to build the vinyl.
Speaker 2: Do you have the vinyl at home?
Speaker 3: No, Dad a huge collection.
Speaker 2: That's a juge ju jute.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: The kids so not the new.
Speaker 2: The kids do the new vinyl.
Speaker 9: No, my kids haven't got but it's it's Taylor Swifts
Speaker 9: new album, so vinyl exclusive.
Speaker 3: I'm showing you thirty five bucks. That's what it's going
Speaker 3: to cost you.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Dot com the
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